1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:09,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:13,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple car Playing and Broud Auto with the 4 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: Well of the latest reading on consumer confidence just down, 7 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 2: in fact, reaching a seven month high. Let's break it 8 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 2: down right now with Joy and Shuey, director of the 9 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 2: University of Michigan, surveys of consumers joining us. You're in 10 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:41,599 Speaker 2: ann arbor, right, That's correct. So it doesn't necessarily reflect 11 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:45,880 Speaker 2: the outcome of the election, because it looks like pretty confidence. 12 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:50,160 Speaker 2: People were pretty confident about the economy of the US. 13 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 3: That's correct. So I want to note that the data 14 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 3: that we're releasing today, the interviews ended on Monday, prior 15 00:00:57,200 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 3: to the election, and so what we saw on the 16 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 3: EU of the election and the two weeks leading into it, 17 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 3: consumers we're feeling much more confident about the future of 18 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 3: the economy. Not much change in current conditions, but in 19 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 3: terms of the future of the economy, we saw improvements 20 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 3: in terms of business conditions, personal finances, people's incomes, unemployment rates, 21 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 3: consumers were really feeling like the future of the economy 22 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 3: was on an upper trajectory. 23 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 4: Joan, what did the survey tell us about how Americans 24 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 4: are thinking about the future path of inflation. 25 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 3: With inflation, we saw a very slight decrease in short 26 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 3: one inflation expectations as well as a very small increase 27 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 3: in long run expectations. So consumers are broadly expecting inflation 28 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 3: to continue stabilizing. You know, they continue to be pretty 29 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 3: frustrated by high prices, though. We have over forty percent 30 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 3: of consumers continuing to tell us that high prices are 31 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 3: eroding their personal finances in spite of the fact that 32 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 3: they have fully acknowledged and noticed that inflation has slowed. 33 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 2: What can we extrapolate from this about consumer spending or 34 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 2: anything else in terms of consumer behavior overall? 35 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 3: You know, consumers have been telling us all year long 36 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 3: that the future of the economy is highly contingent on 37 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:11,679 Speaker 3: the election, and so the fact that the election has 38 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 3: been resolved means that consumers are really starting to adjust 39 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 3: their views for the future, which will allow them to 40 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 3: plan and think more strongly about about the kinds of 41 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 3: purchases they want to make. Consumers have told us that 42 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 3: their high priced concerns for large purchases like durable goods, cars, 43 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 3: and homes, those have all eased this month, and so 44 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 3: things for them are headed in the right trajectory. However, 45 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 3: they're still feeling you know, they're still not feeling as 46 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 3: happy about the economy as they did prior to the pandemic. 47 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 2: JO and always a pleasure. Thanks for being with us 48 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,519 Speaker 2: today and Happy Friday. Joined sure that the director of 49 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 2: the University of Michigan surveys of consumers. 50 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 51 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Plays and Android 52 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live 53 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 54 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 55 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 2: Paramount Global, the parent of CBSTV, MTV and it namesake 56 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 2: Hollywood Movie Studio, reported third quarter sales that missed analyst instiments. 57 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 2: Let's break it down right now with our next guest, KEITHA. 58 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 2: Raganoth and the Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst. Thanks for being with us. 59 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 2: Shouldn't we really be focusing on streaming here? 60 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 5: Well, we should, I mean streaming is making up only 61 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 5: twenty five percent of total revenue. John, but remember they 62 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 5: are in the midst as most of the old media companies. 63 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 5: Paramount is in the midst of this whole transition away 64 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 5: from the linear TV model to the streaming model. And 65 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 5: the reason we need to focus on streaming is because 66 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 5: up until this point, streaming was really weighing on overall profitability. 67 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 5: So we saw the streaming segment contribute to something like 68 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 5: two to two and a half billion dollars in losses, 69 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 5: and that was really pressuring overall company profitability. Now what 70 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 5: has happened now is we're finally seeing, you know, some 71 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 5: signs of a turnaround. There's some signs of hope for 72 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 5: the streaming business because for the second straight quarter in 73 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:21,280 Speaker 5: a row, Paramount actually posted a positive profit number. So 74 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,919 Speaker 5: that is definitely good news. The bad news, however, which 75 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 5: is kind of causing a little bit of you know, 76 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:31,039 Speaker 5: the fall in the stock after the earnings call, is 77 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 5: because they said that in the fourth quarter they're again 78 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 5: going to go back to some amount of streaming losses. However, 79 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 5: the long term view still is that you know, the 80 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 5: streaming business, which is Paramount plus their streaming platform, will 81 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 5: be profitable in twenty twenty five, at least in the US. 82 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 4: How does that stuck up with paramount streaming competitors. I 83 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 4: feel like these days, you go and you turn on 84 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 4: your Roku TV and there's maybe six or seven different 85 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 4: options for streaming, and I don't know if I if 86 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 4: Paramount is you know, the first one that comes up 87 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 4: on at least my suggested apps to click on. 88 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 5: Now, you bring up a very very good point. I mean, 89 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:14,720 Speaker 5: there's absolutely no doubt that, you know, Netflix has won 90 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 5: the streaming wars. They are the default go to option. 91 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 5: But when you kind of look across the board and 92 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:22,839 Speaker 5: you look at some of the other streaming services, Paramount 93 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 5: definitely is there. Of course, they might not be your 94 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 5: first choice as you kind of gravitate to streaming, but 95 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 5: they definitely have a lot of content that people want 96 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 5: to watch. So they have a lot of content from 97 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:38,479 Speaker 5: their linear TV platform itself, you know, a lot of 98 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 5: sports content. They're one of the streaming platforms that's pretty 99 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 5: sports heavy with NFL with UEFA, so people definitely like that. 100 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 5: And then they have some pretty good scripted content as well, 101 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 5: you know, whether you're talking about Star Trek or Yellowstone, 102 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 5: they have Telsa King. 103 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 6: So they have a lot. 104 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 5: Of you know, good pieces that people want to watch. 105 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 5: But you're absolutely right when it comes to scale and 106 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:01,600 Speaker 5: streaming is you know, a game of scale. They're nowhere 107 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 5: near Netflix or even Disney Plus. They have only about 108 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 5: seventy million subscribers on their Paramount Plus platforms. Obviously the 109 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:12,920 Speaker 5: competitive dynamics still working a little bit against Paramount. Having 110 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 5: said that, though, I mean, not all bad. 111 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 2: What's the update with the merger with Skydance Media. 112 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:23,039 Speaker 5: So the sky Dance Media, I mean, of course, this 113 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 5: was a merger John that was in the works for 114 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 5: almost ever was going on and on the saga. It 115 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 5: is going to close sometime in the first half of 116 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 5: twenty twenty five, and so we're seeing that a lot 117 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 5: of the progress that the company has made in terms 118 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 5: of cutting costs, in terms of cost efficiencies, in terms 119 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 5: of restructuring, that's all the first step towards you know, 120 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 5: achieving the two billion dollars in annual cost synergies that 121 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 5: sky Dance has laid out, you know, after mergers. So 122 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:55,359 Speaker 5: you know that will kind of happen sometime I guess 123 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 5: next year, and then you know, we kind of get 124 00:06:57,680 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 5: a whole fresh set of eyes here, you know, a 125 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 5: new management team, some new capital, one and a half 126 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:06,479 Speaker 5: billion dollars that goes straight to you know, the balance sheet. 127 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 5: So all of those are definitely positives. But the hard 128 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 5: truth is that the backdrop continues to be very, very difficult. 129 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 2: Well, is this the joint venture partner they were looking 130 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 2: for for streaming or something else? 131 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: Now this is. 132 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 5: Something Now, this is something else. So this is you know, 133 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 5: the whole the sky dance, which is you know, an 134 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 5: independent studio has been led of course by David Ellison 135 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 5: has been wanting to buy Paramount for the longest time, 136 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 5: and of course their main interest was really in the studio, 137 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 5: but then ultimately they decided that they could do something 138 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 5: with the entire company and kind of give it more 139 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 5: of this tech driven focus. 140 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 2: Always a pleasure, appreciate it. Getha Ragananthan and the Bloomberg 141 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 2: Intelligence Analyst. 142 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 143 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play and 144 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: Enroud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 145 00:07:56,320 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 146 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 2: I'm John Tucker along with Emily GRIFFEO. We are in 147 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 2: for Alex and Paul today. So what is the panther 148 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 2: ahead for the Federal Reserve after yesterday's twenty five bases 149 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 2: point cut. Daniel Di Martino Booth is the CEO and 150 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 2: the chief strategist for QI Research. Good to see you again. 151 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 7: It's great to be here in studio, New. 152 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 2: York on this beautiful day Friday. Thank you very much 153 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 2: forf So what was your takeaway from the FED meeting yesterday? 154 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 7: So we were speaking offline before I came on, and 155 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 7: I you know, I think it was the guests. 156 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 8: Indeed, indeed, I think I think. 157 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 7: The version of Chair Powell who showed up yesterday was 158 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 7: like the Dirty Harry version, extremely succinct, very few words. 159 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:46,319 Speaker 7: He wasn't scripted, he wasn't reading his answers, he wasn't nervous. 160 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 7: He was expecting all of the political angles that the 161 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:54,199 Speaker 7: reporters were going to take, and he was ready for them, 162 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 7: and he cut them off at. 163 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 8: The past time and again. So how are we. 164 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,440 Speaker 4: Supposed to make sense of the market action and what 165 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 4: is driving i mean treasury yields? 166 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 5: Right now? 167 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 8: We were also just talking about this. 168 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 4: They've dropped about sixteen. 169 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 7: Basics sixteen basis points on the tenure in a matter 170 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 7: of two days. In fact, the ten year dropped four 171 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 7: basis points the minute he was asked by a reporter 172 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 7: that if you're asked to step down by President Trump, 173 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 7: will you And he said no, And so she rephrased 174 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 7: the question and he looked over his glasses and he 175 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 7: said no. And at that minute, the tenure yield drop 176 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 7: four basis points. So I think I think markets right 177 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 7: now are celebrating continuity and steadiness and the fact that 178 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 7: I think the Fed's going to continue to cut rates. 179 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 8: I really do see that as a path forward. 180 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 7: I know a bunch of sales side banks this morning 181 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 7: have come out and said they're going to be much 182 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 7: fewer cuts in twenty twenty five. As a nine year 183 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:53,960 Speaker 7: veteran of the FED, it's extremely rare for us to 184 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 7: have seen the pause in the hiking cycle. It would 185 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:02,319 Speaker 7: be nearly unprecedented to see a paw in an easing cycle. 186 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 7: We tend to see unemployment rates tick up in chunks, 187 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:11,000 Speaker 7: and we were just a smidge of a percentage away 188 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 7: from the unemployment rate having been four point two percent 189 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 7: in October, and we know that layoffs have picked up 190 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 7: appreciably since September, so we can see what's coming. 191 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 8: And I think. 192 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 7: Powell leaned on the employment mandate yesterday with good reason, 193 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 7: and he said, I'm not making any decisions. There's two 194 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 7: inflation reports, there's one employment report. Before we meet again, I'll. 195 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 8: Let you know. 196 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 2: Can the Fed be at all preemptive when it comes 197 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 2: to it's not their mandate, but fiscal policy. 198 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 8: Well, the answers no. 199 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 7: When you land on day one at the Fed, you 200 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 7: learn two things. You learn about the lag effect of 201 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 7: monetary policy, which we're still seeing. 202 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 8: I mean, BC, why go pull it up. 203 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:57,079 Speaker 7: You've had thirty bankruptcies in September and October since two 204 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 7: thousand and your average two month average is twenty large bankruptcy. 205 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 7: So pull up BCY, goo on on Bloomberg. But the 206 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 7: second lesson you learn at the FED is never talk 207 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 7: about the dollar. Fiscal policy is the purview of the 208 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:15,319 Speaker 7: Treasury Department. Now, Powell said yesterday, if things begin to 209 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 7: go haywire, I'm telling you right now, our debt levels 210 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 7: in this country are way too high. They're absolutely untenably high. 211 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 7: He said that, But in terms of can the Fed 212 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 7: preemptively take part in crafting legislation, because that's effectively what 213 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 7: a lot of the reporters were asking him, Well. 214 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:38,199 Speaker 2: I guess more anticipating on the next ridge, the bond 215 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 2: vigilantes ring to saddle up and ride. 216 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 8: You know, we'll see, we will see. 217 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 7: I think markets are mistaking flow for stock. In other words, 218 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 7: if we see an extension of the tax cuts, is 219 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 7: that going to be equivalent to depositing cash in US 220 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 7: household bank accounts that's going to reignite inflation overnight. 221 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 8: No, it's just going to be continuation of the status quo. 222 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:04,440 Speaker 7: So at the margin, we're not going to see money 223 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 7: pumped into the economy the way that we did with 224 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 7: the first and the second and the third stimulus checks, 225 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:11,079 Speaker 7: or with the child tax credit. 226 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 8: Being in cash. 227 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 7: Cash is a much different instrument when it comes to 228 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 7: monetary policy and the transmission mechanism. It's immediate, as opposed 229 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 7: to the FED lowering interest rates and then saying okay, 230 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:25,839 Speaker 7: banks go to be easier on your lending standards now 231 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,839 Speaker 7: that barring costs are lower, so you be the transmission 232 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 7: mechanism into the economy. 233 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 8: So much different dynamics. 234 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 7: If we're not talking about this new administration mailing out 235 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 7: checks on day one. 236 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:42,439 Speaker 4: So should investors then not be worried about inflation reigniting? 237 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:45,080 Speaker 4: Because I've been seeing a lot of notes in my 238 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 4: inbox all talking about Trump's policies are going to increase inflation, 239 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 4: yields are going to go up. Who knows what's going 240 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 4: to happen to stocks. 241 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 7: You know, if you listen to the likeliest candidate on 242 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:57,679 Speaker 7: the terminal last night, the where it's a very good 243 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 7: profile of potential Treasury secretary candidates under Trump, if you 244 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 7: listen to what a lot of them are saying, they're saying, 245 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 7: you know what, companies, We're going to give you two 246 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 7: years to build a factory in the United States, and 247 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 7: if you don't re on shore or on shore and 248 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,680 Speaker 7: move your supply chains away, then we're going to penalize you. 249 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 7: That's a much different take than imposing tariffs on day one. 250 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:24,480 Speaker 7: So I think people should listen to who these. 251 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 8: Potential candidates are. 252 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 7: And I think that the second Trump term, I'm not 253 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:32,839 Speaker 7: beginning to suggest that there's wisdom here or that he's 254 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 7: not going to fly off the handle for any reason 255 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 7: at all, but I think this time he's going to 256 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 7: take more counsel. I think this time he's going to 257 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 7: listen to those around him a little bit more and 258 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 7: be more thoughtful about who he brings into his administration. 259 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 2: Back to tax policy. With respect to corporate tax policy, 260 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 2: is from where you sit, it's a fifteen percent corporate 261 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 2: rate really feasible. And what are the pay for is 262 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 2: for that? Yeah, multipart quids. 263 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 7: Milton Friedman would tell you there's no free lunch, right, So, 264 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 7: I mean, you have to find a way to pay 265 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 7: for these things realistically. And I think that that's where 266 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 7: the construct of the new Congress is going to come 267 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 7: in and how they're going to not just throw promises 268 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 7: out there that you can't pay for. 269 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 8: And that's a good thing. 270 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 7: So the instantaneous aspect of tax cuts, I think is. 271 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 8: A big presumption because it ain't free. 272 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 4: How does this bleed into different sectors of the stock market, 273 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 4: because we've seen a really big bid in small cap 274 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 4: stocks this week. I guess on the bet that if 275 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 4: you have more domestic manufacturing, you're going to do better 276 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 4: in Trump's economy, does that mean. 277 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 8: In small caps right now? 278 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 7: In theory, what you cannot do with small tax is 279 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 7: wave a magic wand and make their leverage go away. 280 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 7: You can't make the small cap sector any healthier than 281 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 7: it is when you're talking about their balance sheets, and 282 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 7: that's really what has to be addressed first. 283 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 8: And I think that. 284 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 7: What we're seeing here is a lot of technical movements, 285 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 7: whether you're talking about this whiplash effect in the bond 286 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,680 Speaker 7: market or this rush into the rustle that wasn't even 287 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 7: sustained for a day, excuse me, for two trading days. 288 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 7: So I think investors, or at least veteran investors I'm 289 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 7: showing my age here, are going to be really focused 290 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 7: on top line revenue growth, cash flow generation, the ability 291 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 7: to protect dividends going forward, and that that's what's going. 292 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 8: To be important. 293 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 7: We have just seen a month where according to macro 294 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 7: Edge they track layoff announcements, in September they were about 295 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 7: fifty thousand. In October there one hundred and nine thousand. 296 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 7: And we've seen one company after another in the current 297 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 7: earning season prior to retailers of reporting. 298 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 8: Continue to say. 299 00:15:56,400 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 7: We're going to bolster our margins by laying off. They 300 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 7: were just you guys were just talking about Paramount and 301 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 7: laying off fifteen percent of its workforce. 302 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 8: So we have to bear all this. 303 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 7: In mind, and until CEOs and CFOs get out of 304 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 7: the cost cutting mode to protect their margins, I think 305 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 7: we have to be realistic about what sectors are going 306 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 7: to benefit and what sectors aren't. 307 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 2: Is anybody baking the tax cuts getting back to that 308 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 2: into the rastimates right now? 309 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 8: I think a lot of people are. 310 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 7: I think a lot of I think I think a 311 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:29,600 Speaker 7: lot of strategists on the street right now are baking 312 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 7: in tariffs yesterday and tax cuts yesterday in the effect 313 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 7: that it would have on the bond market. 314 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 2: I think the bond mar those tariffs are to some 315 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 2: extent intended as a pay for for any anticipated tax 316 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 2: cuts the corporate quote or personal. But that's not going 317 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 2: to do it right. 318 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 7: Not even not realistically and not even close. 319 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 2: That's right. 320 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 4: So I. 321 00:16:57,400 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 8: Mean, I'm an independent research firm. I can say whatever 322 00:16:59,720 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 8: I want. 323 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 7: I think the streets getting ahead of itself, and I 324 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 7: think the rally in the bond market is saying that 325 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:06,000 Speaker 7: out loud. 326 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:10,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, any other messages you are extracting from the bond 327 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 2: market at this. 328 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 7: Point, Well, the United States does not live on an island. 329 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 7: And when you see factory orders retrenching, when you see 330 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:23,119 Speaker 7: import volumes falling, I'm going to be paying attention to 331 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:27,360 Speaker 7: the PPI and CPI data that come out of China tonight. 332 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 7: I think until we stop stop getting deflationary impulses and 333 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 7: waking up to hearing Michelin and Volkswagen and layoffs and 334 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 7: countries with really strict labor standards, until we stop hearing that, 335 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 7: I think we have to appreciate the United States is 336 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 7: part of a global economy and the rest of the 337 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 7: countries in the world and how they're faring is going 338 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:47,440 Speaker 7: to affect our country as well. 339 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 2: I don't know if it's part of your remit, but 340 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 2: Europe we have the sick man. Well, we have many 341 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:54,639 Speaker 2: sick men in Europe right now, are in total panic. 342 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 7: Yeah, France is definitely sicker than most people want to appreciate, 343 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 7: and we forced our banking system to capitalized after the 344 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 7: financial crisis in many ways Europe did not. So yeah, 345 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 7: I think you're going to see a much more aggresive 346 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 7: rate cutting campaign there and we'll see how that plays out. Look, 347 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 7: bond yields are down, dollars stronger today. Not everything plays 348 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 7: out exactly the script. 349 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 2: Okay, just one more period, just another minute, the Basil 350 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 2: three endgame. So increasing the capital requirements for the financialist institutions, 351 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,120 Speaker 2: does that just get ignored at this point like forty 352 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 2: five seconds? And is that a good thing? Well, it's 353 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:36,879 Speaker 2: a good thing for the financials. 354 00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 8: But it's a good thing for the financials. 355 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,439 Speaker 7: But we're still we're still in the comment period, and 356 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:45,440 Speaker 7: Michael Barr and j Powell are intent on pressing forward 357 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 7: with this, and they've backed off of their more stringent 358 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 7: capital requirements to begin with a few months ago. 359 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 8: I don't think that. 360 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 7: We should necessarily say that Basil three endgame is. 361 00:18:55,960 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 2: Over all, right. Thanks, Thanks for showing up. Daniel Di Martino, 362 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 2: both CEO and chief strategist for QI Research. 363 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 364 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,640 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 365 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 1: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 366 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,680 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 367 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 368 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 2: I'm John Tucker along with Emily Graffeo. We are in 369 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 2: for Alex Steele at Paul Sweeney today, and this is 370 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. Let's move on to our next guest and 371 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,359 Speaker 2: our next subject today, what is the impact of the 372 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 2: Trump presidency on tax policy. Let's break that down right 373 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:44,359 Speaker 2: now with Erica York. She's senior Cannabist Research director with 374 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:48,640 Speaker 2: Tax Foundation Center for Federal Tax Policy. Thanks for being 375 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 2: with us, appreciate it. Happy Friday by the way. Hey, So, 376 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 2: there are a couple of fronts here as I understand it, 377 00:19:55,960 --> 00:20:01,360 Speaker 2: the corporate tax rate as well as exten the existing 378 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:03,480 Speaker 2: Trump tax cuts. 379 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 4: Right, that's right. 380 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,880 Speaker 9: So one of the things that President elect Trump will 381 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 9: have to deal with is the expiration of the twenty 382 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 9: seventeen tax law, that's the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. 383 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 9: It lowered the corporate tax rate, permanently, made a lot 384 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 9: of changes on the international tax side, and it also 385 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:24,359 Speaker 9: temporarily cut taxes for the vast majority of American taxpayers. 386 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:28,439 Speaker 9: Lowered rates, double the standard deduction, increased the child tax credit, 387 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:32,119 Speaker 9: lots of moving pieces, but those all sunset after the 388 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 9: end of twenty twenty five. And so that's the first 389 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,400 Speaker 9: major thing that Congress is going to have to deal with. 390 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 9: What do we do about that tax cliff? Trump promised 391 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 9: extending all of those tax cuts, which we've estimated would 392 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 9: come with a price tag of more than four trillion 393 00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 9: dollars in lost revenue over the next decade. And then, 394 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 9: of course, on the campaign trail, Trump outlined trillions dollars 395 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 9: trillions of dollars more in tax cuts. He talked about 396 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 9: further reductions to the corporate tax rate, He talked about 397 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:03,880 Speaker 9: exempting income, social security benefits over time pay from taxes, 398 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,199 Speaker 9: and creating a new deduction for auto loan interest. 399 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 4: So I want to zoom out and ask you about 400 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:15,200 Speaker 4: how investors should be thinking about how these tax cuts 401 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 4: are going to impact the economy because you talk about 402 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,879 Speaker 4: tax cuts and lost revenue. But then of course, if 403 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 4: a corporation has to pay less taxes, you think that 404 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,399 Speaker 4: they have more money on hand for cap X, R 405 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:31,160 Speaker 4: and D. So just big picture, how are we supposed 406 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 4: to be thinking about the impact of the corporate tax 407 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:39,879 Speaker 4: cuts or potential more cuts coming on businesses in the economy. 408 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 9: Yeah, so, on the one hand, the tax cuts for 409 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 9: businesses should have a positive effect on the economy. You know, 410 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,879 Speaker 9: a couple of the big provisions that have expired or 411 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 9: tightening our deductions for machinery and equipment investment and deductions 412 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:58,479 Speaker 9: for research and development expenditures restoring full deductions for that 413 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 9: with lower the cost of capital would boost incentives to 414 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 9: invest in the domestic economy. But one of the mitigating 415 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:09,200 Speaker 9: factors to that could be one of the ways that 416 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:13,479 Speaker 9: Trump and Congress are thinking through offsetting the cost of 417 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 9: that tax cut, and that is through higher import tariffs. 418 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:21,639 Speaker 9: And ultimately the effect that this total package has on 419 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:25,400 Speaker 9: the economy will depend on how harmful the offsets are. 420 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 9: If we are in a situation with some tax cuts 421 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:33,400 Speaker 9: and significant tariff hikes like ten twenty percent baseline tariffs, 422 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 9: higher tariffs on China, higher tariffs on Mexico, those tariffs 423 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:42,160 Speaker 9: themselves plus the likely foreign retaliation could swamp the economic 424 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 9: benefit of better tax policy. 425 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, even if there is no impact those pay fors, 426 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,160 Speaker 2: they're not going to get the job done, are they. 427 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 3: No. 428 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 9: We've estimated that the ten percent universal tariff would raise 429 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 9: about two trillion dollars over the ten year window, So 430 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 9: that falls well short of the. 431 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 5: Yeah. 432 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 9: Yeah, and that's on a conventional basis. So on a 433 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 9: dynamic basis, figuring in how that tariff would reduce economic output, 434 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,959 Speaker 9: revenue falls further. And then if you factor in foreign retaliation, 435 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,120 Speaker 9: it falls even further. So comes up well short, and 436 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,640 Speaker 9: again you have that economic drag created by the tariffs 437 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:26,120 Speaker 9: and the potential trade war as another factor weighing that down. 438 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:31,360 Speaker 2: I put on your political analysis hat for me. The 439 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:35,199 Speaker 2: makeup of Congress. I mean, we don't know still, but 440 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 2: it looks like a red wave. I can guess that 441 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 2: at this point is everybody on board with this? I mean, 442 00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:46,479 Speaker 2: you do have members of Congress in the same party 443 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 2: who are opposed to increasing the deficits to pay. 444 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 9: For a lot of this, right, Yeah, So that's the question. 445 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 9: How big do deficit concerns weigh against the desire to 446 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 9: continue tax cuts. Unfortunately, we're seeing some reporting right now 447 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:06,880 Speaker 9: that Congress is in the works of dusting off processes 448 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 9: legislative processes used to impose tariffs in like the nineteen thirties. 449 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,440 Speaker 9: So the last time Congress passed a law to increase 450 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,160 Speaker 9: tariffs line by line was, of course, the nineteen thirty 451 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 9: Smooth Hally Tariff Act. 452 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,919 Speaker 2: And we all remember Smooth Haley from our classes in 453 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:24,159 Speaker 2: well high school. 454 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 4: Even I thought you're going to see because we were 455 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 4: there in thirty No. 456 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:32,880 Speaker 2: I wasn't going to say that, but please continue ignor. 457 00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 9: If we you know, revert almost a century and Congress 458 00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 9: legislates on tariffs now, even though they're just reporting that 459 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 9: that some wamakers are interested in that as an offset. 460 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 9: I don't see, you know, the entire Republican Party throwing out, 461 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 9: you know, the well accepted economics that tariffs are really harmful, 462 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 9: that free trade is beneficial. So I think that's uncertain. 463 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 9: But there are certainly pockets of the GOP on board 464 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,640 Speaker 9: with Trump's desire to significantly hike tariffs. 465 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:12,640 Speaker 4: We've talked about corporations, but how are Trump's tax policies 466 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:16,960 Speaker 4: going to affect Americans? I'm thinking maybe the middle class. 467 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:24,360 Speaker 9: Yeah, again, it depends. If it's just extending the TCJA. 468 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:29,399 Speaker 9: We've estimated that the individual provisions, sixty two percent of 469 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 9: taxpayers would see a tax cut or would just see 470 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 9: the tax system that they're paying taxes under now continue. 471 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,159 Speaker 9: So that status quo would preserve tax cuts for the 472 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:43,800 Speaker 9: vast majority of Americans. But if that's paired with tariff increases, 473 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,760 Speaker 9: that actually increases taxes on net for lower and middle 474 00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,439 Speaker 9: income taxpayers. Because tariffs, of course have a regressive tax burden. 475 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,480 Speaker 9: They place a higher percentage tax increase on low and 476 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 9: middle income households who consume more of their income than 477 00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,879 Speaker 9: wealthier people do, and then the distribution of the tax 478 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 9: cuts is also somewhat in opposition to that it does. 479 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,160 Speaker 9: The TCJA provided tax cuts to people across the income spectrum, 480 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 9: but larger tax cuts to higher income individuals, which makes 481 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,879 Speaker 9: sense given the very progressive nature of our income tax, 482 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,920 Speaker 9: but those in combination could mean that lower and middle 483 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:24,359 Speaker 9: income households are worse off under this combination of tax 484 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,160 Speaker 9: cuts paid for by tariffs. 485 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,880 Speaker 2: All right, before you go near and dear to our 486 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 2: hearts and high tax states, thirty seconds on salt. Is 487 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,119 Speaker 2: the salt deduction going to be raised? 488 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,199 Speaker 9: I think yes. I think if it is, you know, 489 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:44,120 Speaker 9: GOP trib effecta very narrow margins in the House, those 490 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 9: lawmakers who want to see an increase in the salt 491 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 9: cap have more sway. I don't think we'll see unlimited 492 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,119 Speaker 9: salt comeback. That would be a big reversion on a 493 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 9: big reform that was included in the twenty seventeen tax law. 494 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 9: But I imagine we'll see some sort of doubling for joint filers, 495 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,840 Speaker 9: and maybe even some increase for both single and joint filers. 496 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,960 Speaker 9: That of course makes the budget map harder because that 497 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 9: increases the cost of extending the TCJ. 498 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 2: Yes, that's not cheap either. Erica York, Senior accountists, Research 499 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 2: director with the Tax Foundation Center for Federal Tax Policy. 500 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,440 Speaker 2: Thanks very much for me with us. Appreciate it. 501 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,639 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 502 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 503 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:29,000 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 504 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 505 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,399 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 506 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,639 Speaker 6: Let's get a Barry Ridtholts right now, founder of Ridthults 507 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,960 Speaker 6: Wealth Management, the host of my favorite podcast, Master's in 508 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 6: Business after my own, that is, I have a podcast 509 00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 6: Hot Pursuit with you, Elliott, and actually Barry's on that 510 00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,760 Speaker 6: podcast a lot too, So in any case, Barry joins 511 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,920 Speaker 6: us now to talk about I guess first and foremost, Barry, 512 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 6: we have to get your take on the election. I know, 513 00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:58,919 Speaker 6: in a twenty four hour news cycle, we should have 514 00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:00,480 Speaker 6: been done talking about this one day. 515 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 1: But. 516 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 6: What do you think we all got so wrong in 517 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:07,600 Speaker 6: saying like this is going to be a toss up? 518 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,600 Speaker 6: And it was actually, you know Trump and the Republicans 519 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,320 Speaker 6: like demolishing the Democrats on Tuesday. 520 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 10: Right, So so first, Billie Eilish is not a pop star. 521 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 10: She's a Sean Truce. She's going to do a whole 522 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 10: album of great American songbook. We'll come back to that later, 523 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:26,399 Speaker 10: don't don't underestimated. 524 00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:28,359 Speaker 6: I'll put a pin in it because I agree, and 525 00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 6: I agree and would like to talk more about Billy Eilish. 526 00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:34,280 Speaker 10: But first, fantastic thing. But let you know, the what 527 00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 10: I love about elections is that all of the errors 528 00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:42,600 Speaker 10: that we make as investors, because of that's how we're wired, 529 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,840 Speaker 10: we engage in the same behavioral mistakes when it comes 530 00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,360 Speaker 10: to elections that that we make with capital and risk 531 00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 10: and decision making. So it's really kind of fascinating. I 532 00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 10: do this every election. The last one I did that 533 00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 10: really kind of a lot of people to chatted about 534 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:05,280 Speaker 10: was back in twenty sixteen. But let's just pick a 535 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,040 Speaker 10: few things that everybody got wrong. So first of all, 536 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 10: you know forecasting, Lol, how many times are the polls 537 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 10: going to be wrong? 538 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,840 Speaker 6: And before we stop listening media and right, I mean, 539 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 6: I've had. 540 00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 10: Conversations with various people at MSNBC, at CNN, at Bloomberg. Hey, 541 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 10: why a year out are you guys spending so much 542 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 10: time talking about polls. It's fifty to fifty that even 543 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 10: the people in the polls are going to be the 544 00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:38,760 Speaker 10: actual candidates. And that happened this year, that happened in 545 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:45,479 Speaker 10: twenty and sixteen. It happens surprisingly regularly. But the polls 546 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 10: blew it in sixteen, eighteen, twenty twenty two, now again 547 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,120 Speaker 10: in twenty four Why do we listen to people who 548 00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 10: make forecasts when they're consistently wrong? And I want you 549 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,960 Speaker 10: to to keep that in the back of your head 550 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 10: the next time you ask a strategis during economists, what's 551 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 10: GDP or non farm payroll going to be? Because they 552 00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,720 Speaker 10: don't know, they can't know someone is randomly going to 553 00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:08,920 Speaker 10: be right. So that's number one. 554 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,160 Speaker 6: Well, non farm payrolls different. I mean, the margin of 555 00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 6: error is bigger than the number. Typically, the benny markets 556 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,200 Speaker 6: got this right and the options market got this right. 557 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 10: And that's the second question, which is when you see 558 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 10: someone who gets something right, was its skill or luck? 559 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:27,800 Speaker 2: You know? 560 00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:31,680 Speaker 10: The probably the poster child for this is the Arc 561 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:35,760 Speaker 10: Innovation ETF and Kathy Wood, who had the greatest year 562 00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:41,640 Speaker 10: in twenty twenty of any any ETF for mutual fund 563 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 10: manager just about in history. You know, Pika Trough's shoe 564 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 10: is the fund more than tripled for the year, was 565 00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,720 Speaker 10: up something like one hundred and sixty four percent, and 566 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,080 Speaker 10: then mean, you know, reversion to the mean happened, and 567 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:56,120 Speaker 10: it turned out that Hey wasn't skill. It was just 568 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 10: a lot of luck. And she's been unable to reproduce 569 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 10: that before or since. Despite having the greatest year in history, 570 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:09,360 Speaker 10: she's still underperforming the SMP since inception in twenty fourteen. 571 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,840 Speaker 10: And the SMP is the wrong index, it should be 572 00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:15,120 Speaker 10: the NAZAQ one hundred, where she's substantially into performing. So 573 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,680 Speaker 10: that's the second issue, is being able to separate skill 574 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,560 Speaker 10: from luck. The people who got it right, I'm not 575 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,520 Speaker 10: convinced that it was anything more than someone who's gonna 576 00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 10: get it right, but it's dumb luck. Probably the single 577 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,840 Speaker 10: biggest thing that investors get wrong, that we all got 578 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:37,080 Speaker 10: wrong this election was how much we allow narratives to 579 00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 10: dominate our thinking and just think about what the consensus 580 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:47,200 Speaker 10: agreed this This election was about. It's razor thin margin, 581 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:51,120 Speaker 10: it's deadlocked. This is the year of turnout. This is 582 00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,440 Speaker 10: the year of the woman voter. None of that turned. 583 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:58,920 Speaker 2: Out to be true. We just love a great story. 584 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:00,760 Speaker 4: Well, we don't have a ton of time. 585 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,800 Speaker 6: No, we got to swap guys. Can you swap Berry's 586 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,760 Speaker 6: block with the Uni block? We had fifty Yeah, let's 587 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,400 Speaker 6: kill the break. We had fifteen minutes to talk Muni's right, 588 00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 6: and five for Barry. 589 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,800 Speaker 4: That doesn't seem right, because I want to talk more markets, 590 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:17,520 Speaker 4: but I also want to talk music quickly. But let's 591 00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:20,479 Speaker 4: just stay on markets, because I mean, Barry. How are 592 00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 4: we then supposed to kind of understand we talk so 593 00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:27,920 Speaker 4: much about the Trump trade. Should we not be thinking 594 00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:31,240 Speaker 4: that the reason why, you know, bitcoin is now reaching 595 00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,960 Speaker 4: a new record high, stocks are all near a record high. 596 00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,640 Speaker 4: Should we not be kind of connecting that to the 597 00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,520 Speaker 4: narrative that, oh, the market is just is happy that 598 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:41,440 Speaker 4: we have a new a new president. 599 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:47,600 Speaker 10: Well, generally speaking, we like to the market collectively, we 600 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:51,000 Speaker 10: like tax cuts, we like deficit spending, we like deregulation. 601 00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:57,400 Speaker 10: So the markets like this. Although let's be blunts. The 602 00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:00,960 Speaker 10: market you know, did great under Obama, did great under 603 00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,000 Speaker 10: Trump other than the pandemic, and even then there was 604 00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:08,200 Speaker 10: a huge recovery. It did great under Biden. We here's 605 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 10: another lesson. We put way too much impact and import 606 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,560 Speaker 10: on who's in the white House. You know, if you 607 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 10: only if you only invested when a Democrat was in 608 00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:22,960 Speaker 10: the White House, going back to the I think it's 609 00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 10: the nineteen fifties, you would see a return that was 610 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:30,680 Speaker 10: about your one hundred dollars would generate a return of 611 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,760 Speaker 10: about a buck seventy. And if you only invested when 612 00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,000 Speaker 10: Republicans were in the White House, who would be slightly 613 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,520 Speaker 10: less than that, like a buck forty. But if you 614 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:42,960 Speaker 10: invested over the entire time, well, then compounding as your friend, 615 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 10: and that one hundred dollars turns into something like twenty 616 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:50,960 Speaker 10: four hundred dollars. And so you know, markets compound over time. 617 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 10: Dividend reinvestment is a big part of that, and who 618 00:33:55,560 --> 00:34:00,560 Speaker 10: the president is it matters a little bit around the fringe, 619 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:04,640 Speaker 10: around the edge. If they really mess up, well then 620 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 10: that could have a pretty big impact. 621 00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:08,640 Speaker 2: But for the most. 622 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,960 Speaker 10: Part, every day everybody has to get up, they have 623 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,640 Speaker 10: to dress their kids, send them off to school, pay 624 00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:17,760 Speaker 10: the mortgage, take your car to work. In a twenty 625 00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:21,120 Speaker 10: four trillion dollar economy, what I just described is more 626 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,920 Speaker 10: or less twenty trillion dollars of it, So there's a 627 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:27,120 Speaker 10: little flexibility around the edges, but not a whole lot. 628 00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:31,080 Speaker 10: The US economy is so enormous and the global economy 629 00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:35,280 Speaker 10: is so big that who's in office matters much less 630 00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:40,560 Speaker 10: than what's the overall trend in jobs, what's the wage trend, 631 00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:44,280 Speaker 10: where are we with inflation, what's consumer spending? Like that 632 00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,319 Speaker 10: matters a whole lot, and the President has really a 633 00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:48,480 Speaker 10: deminimous impact on that. 634 00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:52,960 Speaker 6: Barry, I wonder you make a point on your blog 635 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:57,120 Speaker 6: retols dot com that we all have this filter bubble. 636 00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:00,360 Speaker 6: And I noticed that, even though I don't want to 637 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:05,120 Speaker 6: be in an echo chamber. On Instagram, for example, I 638 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:08,760 Speaker 6: always unfollow people that are complete morons, and that probably 639 00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,640 Speaker 6: just means I always unfollow people who don't agree with me. 640 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:18,520 Speaker 6: Is there anyone who's good at getting outside the the 641 00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 6: echo chamber? Are there any you know, investors or you know, leaders, 642 00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,239 Speaker 6: billionaires who are good at getting rid of yes men 643 00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,280 Speaker 6: and actually, you know, getting a diversity of opinion? 644 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,759 Speaker 10: You know, it's very very challenging to do that. And 645 00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:38,160 Speaker 10: I like to quote Danny Kahneman who wrote Thinking Fast 646 00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:42,200 Speaker 10: and Slow won the Nobel Prize for essentially create helping 647 00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:46,080 Speaker 10: to create the field of behavioral economics. And he used 648 00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,920 Speaker 10: to say, now you have a bias blind spot. We 649 00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:52,719 Speaker 10: all do. You could take steps to try and operate, 650 00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 10: put rules in place, put strategies in place that prevent 651 00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,759 Speaker 10: you from getting in your own way. But it's really 652 00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:04,560 Speaker 10: hot we think about it. What drives your bubble. It's 653 00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:08,319 Speaker 10: not just the media you consume. It's who your friends are. 654 00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:12,240 Speaker 10: They're probably have similar thoughts and values to you. Even 655 00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:15,000 Speaker 10: when I get together with my car group, you know 656 00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,680 Speaker 10: there are Biden and Harris voters and Trump voters in 657 00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:22,480 Speaker 10: this But separate from that, everybody in this group is 658 00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:26,640 Speaker 10: driving a pricey car. They're all making a nice income, 659 00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:30,000 Speaker 10: they're all heavily highly educated, they're all I live on 660 00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:31,840 Speaker 10: the north shore of Long Island, so they're all in 661 00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:36,359 Speaker 10: a very hi tax neighborhood, rich neighborhood. And so as 662 00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,520 Speaker 10: much as we all think we're politically different, hey, the 663 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:43,360 Speaker 10: things that we share in common are much more similar 664 00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:46,239 Speaker 10: than the things that separate us. And so even if 665 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:49,120 Speaker 10: you're trying to have a conversation with people who are 666 00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:52,719 Speaker 10: different from you, your friends, your family, your neighbors. You 667 00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:56,200 Speaker 10: are so similar. And so the example I like to 668 00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,440 Speaker 10: tell people, even if you're a farmer or a blue 669 00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:03,319 Speaker 10: collar work or internet you know, Instagram creator, or a 670 00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,440 Speaker 10: finance bro or someone in the media, the people you 671 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:09,560 Speaker 10: spend a lot of time with are probably very similar 672 00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,400 Speaker 10: to you. And most of the rest of the country 673 00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,520 Speaker 10: has a very different personal experience than you do. Even 674 00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:17,680 Speaker 10: if you're a farmer, you probably spend a lot of 675 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,600 Speaker 10: time with other farmers, and you know, your view is 676 00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:22,960 Speaker 10: of the world is going to be different than the 677 00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,440 Speaker 10: blue collar worker in the factory, the knowledge worker in 678 00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:31,160 Speaker 10: an office. And that's just human nature. Everything you do 679 00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:34,920 Speaker 10: within your bubble is becomes a lens that you look 680 00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:38,200 Speaker 10: at the world. It's very hard to get outside of that. 681 00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,640 Speaker 10: One of the most distute things I heard from someone 682 00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,719 Speaker 10: on the losing side of this election, and a little 683 00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:47,080 Speaker 10: bit of self reflection, they said, I guess there are 684 00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:51,160 Speaker 10: a lot fewer people like me than I previously realized. Yes, 685 00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:53,640 Speaker 10: and that's true for all of us. We're all in 686 00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:58,520 Speaker 10: our little group. And and you know, although very not 687 00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:00,200 Speaker 10: represent the electorate. 688 00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,600 Speaker 6: Everyone I know on the losing side, which is you 689 00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:06,480 Speaker 6: know everyone I know because we're in New York. Right, 690 00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:10,040 Speaker 6: Oh really, they have said like, I can't believe it, 691 00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:11,600 Speaker 6: I can't believe I didn't know this. I can't believe 692 00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:13,720 Speaker 6: I didn't see this. But it's still a horrible outcome. 693 00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:15,279 Speaker 6: And then they proceed to say the same thing they 694 00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:18,440 Speaker 6: were saying before the election and haven't expanded their horizons 695 00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,440 Speaker 6: at all. Verry, great to have you on. Uh, I'm 696 00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,400 Speaker 6: gonna call you after because I still have a million questions. 697 00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,359 Speaker 6: Barrier holds there. He is the founder of Redults Wealth 698 00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,800 Speaker 6: Management and the host of Masters in Business. 699 00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:32,560 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apples, Spotify, 700 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:36,440 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you'll get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 701 00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,520 Speaker 1: ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 702 00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:43,080 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 703 00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,279 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 704 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,080 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal.