WEBVTT - Surveillance: NATO Is A Transatlantic Bridge With Stavridis 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:13.040 Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 Jay Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:28.680 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. I 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:33.120 want to bring Nakis, drag him into this conversation strategy 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:36.960 at Lombard Odier. Does this make a difference. It's a 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:38.800 lot of noise and I'm just trying to work out 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:43.080 whether it really disrupts this f O WEMC. I think 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:46.840 it's definitely disrupting for the f MC um or all 0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:50.040 these noise, all these rumors. Again, I'm on the same 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:52.320 page as you are in that I don't subscribe to 0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:55.720 these rumors. I think the the the FMC, the Federal 0:00:55.840 --> 0:00:59.560 Reserve has maintained it's it's full independence and autonomy in 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:03.720 making all decisions. UM. One may has to question the 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:09.360 timing of of the shift in what actually changed between 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:12.639 December and January so that we have such a massive shift, 0:01:12.680 --> 0:01:15.600 because in December we already had a collapse in market. 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:18.440 But nonetheless, you know, I'm still in the camp that 0:01:18.520 --> 0:01:22.000 the fed UM is operating in a total independent environment. 0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:25.440 But as you said, this is definitely not helpful and 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:28.920 it is putting a lot of pressure on them now 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:32.640 in terms of the fifty basis points cards. Look at 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:35.039 what I think is interesting is that we find ourselves 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:37.840 free of us and potentially a lot of other people 0:01:37.880 --> 0:01:41.200 that are actually discussing that the US administration is the 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:43.960 one that's looking for a fifty basis points card. And 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:46.480 I find this absurd. This is the job of the 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:49.480 Federal Reserve, that's the job of the Central Bank, and 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:54.440 the US Administration has no business into contemplating hikes or 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:57.160 cuts in in in the federal funds rate. Right, But 0:01:57.240 --> 0:02:01.640 so as Kevin wars somewhat power. Like with Randall Crassner, 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:05.480 appointed a zillion years ago, he got some real criticism 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:08.960 on his confirmation, And I would suggest the zeitgeist as 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:13.480 Governor worsh delivered the goods over his tenure, that he 0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:17.760 did a pretty darn good job. Given that the theories 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:21.239 that he was younger and experienced and Morgan Evil Morgan 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:26.160 Stanley and all that. Why would we think anyone appointed 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:29.760 by the president other than a complete homer. But why 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:35.040 would we think Chairman worsh would do what the President wants. 0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:38.079 But I don't think this is the issue. I think 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:41.520 the issues that it creates a precedent if something happens 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:44.720 that I think the main problem is that it has 0:02:44.760 --> 0:02:48.400 never happened, and I'm not entirely sure that the legalities 0:02:48.440 --> 0:02:50.880 of it if it can actually happen. But let's say 0:02:50.919 --> 0:02:53.680 that it does happen, and and personally I think it's 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:56.280 a very very low probability event, but if it does, 0:02:56.639 --> 0:03:00.519 it creates a really ugly president. John I've got it interrupt. 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:04.440 I believe right now I'm seeing live Prime Minister May 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.440 and Mr Corbyn and they're going out at John is 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:11.359 me as a foreigner, I've never seen it. Primenster's questions 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:13.960 taking place in the house apart really going out. We'll 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:15.639 try and bring you some highlights of that a little 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:18.760 bit later. I think Vasilios, this issue is largely been resolved. 0:03:18.800 --> 0:03:21.240 I think the administration recognizes now that they can't get 0:03:21.320 --> 0:03:23.880 rid of Chairman Poal. What I worry about is that 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:26.040 the President is getting bad advice, and he's getting bad 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:28.040 advice from those around him, and I think he realizes 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:31.200 he's had some bad advice from Treasury Secretary Stephen Manuchin 0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:34.120 on Chairman Powell. These are the individuals in and around 0:03:34.120 --> 0:03:36.760 the President suggesting who he should nominate for the f 0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:39.600 m C. He chose Chairman pal on the advice of 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:42.360 Secretary Manu Chin Chairman Poal was never going to be 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:44.680 the Federal Reserve chairman that the President wants it. And 0:03:44.760 --> 0:03:47.600 let's be clear, if Kevin Walsh was the second suggestion 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:50.240 for the President of the United States, Kevin Walsh was 0:03:50.280 --> 0:03:51.840 never going to be the chairman of the Federal Reserve 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:54.960 the President wants it. Kevin Walsh is not the uber 0:03:55.040 --> 0:03:59.040 dove of this cycle. It's no way, shape or food. 0:03:59.160 --> 0:04:02.000 Which makes me one that why aren't they making suggestions 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:05.400 to the president that a palatable for the Senate and 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:09.040 ultimately have the policies that the president would like Once 0:04:09.040 --> 0:04:12.160 he sits down, she sits down, German Card in the chair, 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:16.720 why not Sherman Card long, He's earned it with public service. Honestly, 0:04:16.839 --> 0:04:19.120 I don't know. I don't have the answer to this, 0:04:19.200 --> 0:04:21.080 and I have to say that, you know, I've been 0:04:21.080 --> 0:04:24.600 puzzled by a lot of things that this administration is 0:04:25.839 --> 0:04:29.239 going through right now. I think I get the sense. However, 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:35.400 and irrespective of specific names um for that could be 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:39.800 nominated later for FED and everything. I think the administration 0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:42.799 right now is getting the feeling, is starting to get 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:45.400 it that the fiscal stimulus that it was an active with, 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:48.760 in my view, was totally untimely because it was implemented 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:52.320 at the full employment exactly when the economy was firing 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:55.800 at all cylinders is going to start fading. These impult 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:59.679 physical impulses are going to start fading and potentially getting 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:02.120 war it about this because we're getting closer to the 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:06.039 next elections, and then they are trying to come up 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:09.479 with potential suggestions or discussions that will be able to 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.120 cushion the blow that is going to come from waning 0:05:12.320 --> 0:05:15.760 physical impulses. This has been wonderful for Silius Jannakis. Thank 0:05:15.800 --> 0:05:18.040 you so much. It's so feel very strong, and thank 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:35.000 you so much at Lombard the Ft reporting that the 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.640 US and China have resolved most of the key issues 0:05:37.680 --> 0:05:39.239 standing in the way of a deal, with the exception 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:41.920 of two sticking points. One is the fate of existing 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:45.440 tariffs and the second one, and maybe these two are combined, 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:49.360 is the enforcement of any perspective trade deal. So that's 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:51.919 hanging over the market in a good way today. Together 0:05:51.960 --> 0:05:55.479 with the better than expected services data, I believe that 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:57.240 we can get the thoughts now if Jane Furley of 0:05:57.320 --> 0:05:59.640 Rabba Bank she's the head of FX strategy and joins 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:02.400 us from London for more Jane, the mood music is 0:06:02.440 --> 0:06:05.200 better this Wednesday morning. Is that all it is mood 0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:08.159 music or is it something better than that? You know? 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:10.480 I agree. I think I think ned movement music is 0:06:10.320 --> 0:06:13.040 a good sign because certainly it does seem that risk 0:06:13.240 --> 0:06:16.080 on has developed over the course of the week. We did, 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:17.400 of course at the start of the we kept better 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:19.919 manufacturing per marge for both China and the US, and 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:22.560 I think that's at the market off on a positive turn. 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:24.920 And of course the FT report about the the trade 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:28.080 deal is almost done is it's just if you like 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:29.800 the icing on the cake. But I don't think we 0:06:29.839 --> 0:06:32.799 need to scrape too far below that to see something 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:34.919 a little more ominous, and that is of course related 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:37.400 to get the slower world growth story. Now, at the 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:39.599 end of last week, that was the one that was 0:06:39.680 --> 0:06:42.960 rising to the surface and spooking investor sentiment, and I 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:46.200 think that will probably happen again. It needs but potentially 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:48.160 some bad news on the trade fronts and bad and 0:06:48.200 --> 0:06:49.880 I might news and the market is going to be 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:52.400 fearful of this all over again. Are you in the 0:06:52.400 --> 0:06:54.359 camp Chayne where you believe that if we get a 0:06:54.400 --> 0:06:58.160 trade deal, it unlocks some of the global growth concerns, 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:02.719 does it? Well? I mean, it certainly would be good 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:04.680 news to have some sort of trade deals that I 0:07:04.720 --> 0:07:07.520 think an awful lot of people are skeptical as to 0:07:07.600 --> 0:07:09.280 whether or not this is the end of the story. 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:12.360 I mean, we know that the last parts of this 0:07:12.440 --> 0:07:14.760 trade deal are probably the ones that are most difficult 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:18.080 to negotiate. We know that they're probably regarding how the 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:22.520 US is possibly going to police some of the elements 0:07:22.560 --> 0:07:26.559 related to intellectual property rights, etcetera that that it wants 0:07:26.680 --> 0:07:28.760 China to agree to. How is that going to happen 0:07:28.880 --> 0:07:30.520 without China saying we'll look, you know, we're not going 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:33.000 to give up any sovereignty here. So it is going 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:35.840 to be tough, and I would expect issues related to 0:07:35.880 --> 0:07:37.720 that are going to bubble up to the surface again 0:07:37.760 --> 0:07:41.880 over the next few years. My experience with trade deals, 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:46.400 including more lateral trade deals, Jane Folly, is the entire 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:50.760 exercise is to save face based on what you've learned, 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:53.800 not only the ft story but everything else. Are we 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:59.720 in a position we're both parties quote unquote safe face. Well, again, 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.280 I think China has been over the last month and say, 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:05.360 quite concerned that they would have some sort of ceremony 0:08:05.360 --> 0:08:07.680 between the two presidents of the US and China, and 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:10.000 then Trump would perhaps walk out in the way that 0:08:10.080 --> 0:08:13.760 he did in Vietnam. Hence the news that China just 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:16.200 wants a signing ceremony. They want all the work to 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:18.800 be done, first of all, because that would not be 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:22.440 you know, a collection for China. So there is there 0:08:22.480 --> 0:08:25.280 are certain concerns with respect to that. But certainly if 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:28.560 they did get something across the finish line, yes it 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:31.320 would say face for both. That dependent on how of 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:34.040 course it was. But it doesn't mean to say it's 0:08:34.040 --> 0:08:36.320 the end of the story. So what's your dollar call 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:38.240 in there? If we get to some form of face 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:43.640 saving solution, what bank dollar call? Well, this is quite interesting, 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:47.000 you know, because I think the dollar has certain again 0:08:47.120 --> 0:08:48.960 you look at it today that the dollar has has 0:08:48.960 --> 0:08:50.920 fallen a little bit, and then and the dollar seems 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:54.199 to be behaving as as a safe haven. So when 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:56.880 the risk epitade is good. There is a tendency for 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:01.240 investors to move into risky a current, you say, and 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:03.600 away from the safe havens. And and that seems to 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:07.000 be meaning that sometimes when there is good news, the 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:10.920 dollar isn't isn't faring so well. That said, you know, 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:13.160 we do think that over the next few months there 0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:15.360 will be concerned about world growth, that they are there, 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:17.760 that they are very real m, and there will be 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:20.880 real concerns about some other gen economy. Is that the euro, 0:09:21.000 --> 0:09:23.320 I think is on a weak footing. So we are 0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:27.320 generally speaking quite constructive about the outlook for the dollar, 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:30.200 not because of the US fundamentals, to say, but because 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:33.200 of concerns about fundamental elsewhere. Well, Jen, let's talk about 0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:35.280 how you plug in that view into G ten. Right now, 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:38.560 it's been really difficult to get a weaker euro. Your 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:42.080 dollar has been stuck in this really tight, narrow trading range, 0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:43.920 and I'm trying to work out how we break out 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:46.920 to the downside because we have thrown everything at the 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:50.280 Euro and it's still pretty resilient in the face of 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:53.160 it all. Well, you say that, but of course that 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:57.640 the ure really did under play the majority or certainly 0:09:57.640 --> 0:10:01.520 the market consensus expectations stance over the last year and 0:10:01.559 --> 0:10:03.559 a bit year a year in a quarter. I mean, 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:05.520 if we go back, you know, twelve months we were 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:08.880 trading one and now we're down at one twelve um 0:10:08.960 --> 0:10:10.560 and an awful lot of people in the market and 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:13.200 anticipated that we will be back in at one age 0:10:13.679 --> 0:10:15.440 twenty by the end of last year. So the euro, 0:10:15.880 --> 0:10:17.880 you know, has softened. And of course the reason why 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:20.960 the Euro has softened is because the performance of the 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:24.480 Eurozone economy has been disappointing. We had that week number 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:27.640 for Germany into three. Many people in many economists told 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:29.600 us that we would see a rebound. We haven't seen 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:32.840 that rebound. Germany, of course, is a massive export are 0:10:32.960 --> 0:10:35.800 very very sensitive to slow down in world grows and 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:38.720 that certainly does seem to be creeping through. Another really 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:40.920 bad number earlier in the week for its for German 0:10:41.000 --> 0:10:44.199 final manufacturing p M I. So the Euro, I think 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:47.280 is is really on the back foot. And of course 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:51.560 we have the May European elections. There could be uh 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:53.559 the scope here for the far left of the far 0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:56.679 right to do relatively well in these European that they're 0:10:56.720 --> 0:10:59.240 all really really good points but a big move Law 0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:01.320 and euro Dalla were last spring when we came down 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:05.120 from the one twenties down to sub one twenty in 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:09.400 and around one fifteen. But since November we've tested one twelve. 0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:12.520 That's been the line in the sund three times and 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:15.760 can't sustainably break below one twelve. So what's going to 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:20.719 do it well? Again? You know, I think, I mean, 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:22.440 I do see that there is the potential for us 0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:25.040 to go to to one ten. But again, in the 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:27.480 relects of what you've just been saying, this range trading, 0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:29.720 that would be quite a sizable movie. I think it 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:31.560 might be the politics, and I think it might be 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:35.560 the UCB. We have a situation where the US may 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:39.520 need to add additional liquidity because of the European aspect 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:42.800 and against some some potential for some wobbly politics in 0:11:43.120 --> 0:11:45.040 the Eurozone too. Got a there in mine that begs 0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:47.880 it is something that doesn't reflect well on the eurozonal 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:50.839 the EU either. Jane. I just got a brilliant idea 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:55.400 for John Farrell's new property on Blueberg television parody watch. 0:11:57.440 --> 0:11:59.200 Do you want to do a show called parity watch? 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:01.640 You should do? Can you imagine how boring that would 0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:03.160 be for the last couple of years. Haven't we been 0:12:03.240 --> 0:12:05.959 my parity watch since? But we're gonna get it in 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:08.640 one ten and we're all gonna go hysterical over parody Watch. 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:11.280 You know, the notes will come. I don't know if 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:13.600 they're gonna come from Jane Foley, but I'm just saying 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:17.200 the notes will probably count there. Jane Folly, thank you 0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:20.280 so much a short notice. I didn't get to Sterling, 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:37.440 but greatly greatly appreciate that as well. This is a joy, 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:40.440 and I think I could state for all Americans in uniform, 0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:44.120 not me, but those that have served this nation a 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:48.040 special moment that on the seventieth anniversary of NATO, we 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:50.960 have the advantage of James Travinus. You know him from 0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:54.840 Tells Fletcher School, his wonderful books, uh and also now 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:56.960 at Carlisle Group. But of course he was a former 0:12:57.000 --> 0:13:00.520 Supreme Commander for NATO. Admiral, wonderful to have you with 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:03.640 us to say good morning, Good morning Tom, big week 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:07.600 for NATO, Big week for NATO. Let us go back 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:12.760 to a president who supported NATO, and that would be H. S. Truman. 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:19.680 April fourth, nineteen, The Echoes of World War Two we're 0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:23.040 in that room at the Oval Office. There was hunger 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:26.520 in Europe. The Martiall Plan was gearing up. It was 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:29.640 I'm going to call it pre Korea is an amateur. 0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:34.760 What was a sweat factor day one for NATO? NATO had, 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:39.080 right from the beginning of Crystal Clear mission which was 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:44.760 to keep the Soviet Union out, to keep the Americans in. 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:48.320 Because Tom, you'll remember in the nineteen twenties, after World 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:51.800 War One, we walked away from Europe. We failed to 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:54.680 join the League of Nations that led to the Second 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:57.800 World War. So a principal goal of NATO was not 0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:00.640 only keeping the Soviets out, but keeping the Americans in. 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:04.760 Those were the two sweat factors. And also subliminally, people 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:07.680 wanted to keep the Germans down. They were worried about 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:10.720 a re arming of Germany. So there was sort of 0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:14.280 three big reasons play and they all came through. And 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:18.040 then Charles de gal six he says, France out. I 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:21.640 remember that uproar in junior high or high school whatever 0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:25.800 us uh, Jim, But but the president, President Trump maybe 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:28.960 would like out to explain to President Trump right now 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:33.160 listening why de Caen wanted out and how did America 0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:37.200 react to that. Charles de Gaull wanted out because of 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:42.840 his immense personal ego that he felt was being subliminated 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:46.000 by the continuing presence of France and the Alliance. And 0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:50.280 once de gall passed from the scene, France reintegrated with NATO. 0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:53.160 As you know, in terms of why we should stay 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:57.160 in its excellent value proposition for the United States, those 0:14:57.200 --> 0:15:00.360 Europeans spent three hundred billion dollars a year on d sense. 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:03.520 That's the second largest defense budget in the world. Tom, 0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:07.239 It's the larger than that of Russia and China combined. 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:09.720 And so should they get up to the two person 0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:12.760 of GDP, Yes they should. The President should continue to 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:16.280 hit them on that, but overall it's good value for 0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:21.160 a dollar. Ambassador Burns an Ambassador Loot in a study 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:24.520 for Harvard writing in the Washington Post, I believe it 0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:29.640 was yesterday, Really go after this president of the United States. 0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:33.360 What would you advise the president is his newly minted 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:38.360 secretary Defense As a joke, folks, what would you advise 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:42.760 a new president of the United States about writing his 0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:47.520 message on NATO? I would tell him it's okay to 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:50.400 push the Europeans and you want to kind of bend 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:52.520 them a little bit to get them to spend a 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:55.880 bit more, but you don't want to break this relationship. 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:59.520 And boy, we think of it as a transatlantic bridge, Tom, 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:02.160 and you kind of hear it creaking a little bit. 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:05.520 Given some of the tone that's come out of President Trump, 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:09.680 he could alter his tone, uh, and still get the 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:12.520 benefits of NATO. That would be the approach to take. 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.760 How are Americans treated at NATO headquarters? You walked in 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:18.320 the door one day with a lot of fancy brass 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:21.280 on your shoulders. How are are Americans different at the 0:16:21.360 --> 0:16:26.120 NATO headquarters than those of Europe No? Uh. I would 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:30.320 say that the Americans are viewed as the leaders of 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:34.160 the alliance, but not the dominant nation in the alliance. 0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:38.720 It's a very collegial atmosphere, as between all the ambassadors 0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:41.840 from the twenty nine nations and from all the senior 0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:44.920 four star officers who were there as well. Um. I 0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:48.800 had wonderful times with my European colleagues. They remain among 0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:52.160 my closest friends today and I think that level of 0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:55.040 collegiality is what the alliance is all about. And that's 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:58.080 why the Europeans were willing to come with us to 0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:02.040 Afghanistan and fight after and eleven. The only time the 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:05.480 NATO Alliance has energized Article five. An attack on one 0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:08.520 is an attack on all. Was after nine eleven. They 0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:11.800 came and fought and died with us in Afghanistan. Does 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:15.840 President Trump know that? I don't think he fully appreciates that. 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:17.840 And I'll put a personal note on it, Tom, when 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:21.240 I was Supreme Allied Commander, I signed over two thousand 0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:24.520 letters of condolence to young men and women who died 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:29.320 under my command in Afghanistan, over a third or from Europe. 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:34.040 That's an important point, to say the least. James de Vitis. 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:38.040 Last week I was in front of college kids and 0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:41.280 I stopped the show two thirds of the way through 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:43.119 when I said, look, I'm giving you all these books 0:17:43.119 --> 0:17:44.960 to reading folks. You know, am I shut up and 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:48.160 read this, shut up and read this. And I mentioned 0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:53.360 your leader's bookshelf. NATO is falling apart, the Transatlantic Alliance 0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:58.040 is falling apart. Which book does the President of United States? 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.560 Which book does Nick Burns? Which book does Tom Kane? 0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:04.520 Which book to our listeners need to read on this 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:08.359 magic of the Atlantic Charter and all of the North Atlantic. 0:18:09.480 --> 0:18:13.639 I would say the right answer is the Second World 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:17.920 War by Winston Churchill, because it is the ultimate cautionary 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:21.960 tale for what happens when we don't work together as allies. 0:18:22.000 --> 0:18:26.120 And it's in the end a very reaffirming book about 0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:29.159 the work of the Alliance as it came together in 0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:32.840 the aftermath to World War Brilli Alliance exists, so we 0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:37.480 don't do that again. Was that shaped by the fascinatings? 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:39.679 And this is an h. Larabie book, folks, on the 0:18:39.720 --> 0:18:43.119 on the generals and admirals of World War Two? But 0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:48.000 was was Churchill's book shaped on the Battle of Fdr 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:51.840 with the assistance of Marshall. Dealing with Churchill and then 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:56.119 say dealing with Montgomery, just the the huge arguments that 0:18:56.160 --> 0:18:58.639 were in the middle of this war where everybody was 0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:01.760 on the same side. Indeed, and here I'm just going 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:04.480 to draw a line under one admiral and one general. 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:07.760 The admiral was Admiral Leahy, who was the President's chief 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:11.119 of Staff, five star fleet admiral, and the general, of 0:19:11.160 --> 0:19:14.399 course was George Marshall, effectively the chairman of the Joint 0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:18.680 Chiefs as we understand it today, those two were the steady, calm, 0:19:18.800 --> 0:19:24.480 quiet presence in Washington that helped forge the friendship and 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:29.600 the alliance that ultimately ultimately carried the day between FDR 0:19:29.840 --> 0:19:33.919 and Churchill, which was the most important relationship in winning 0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:37.080 World War Two. James T. Venas, thank you so much. 0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:55.159 This is a joy we've you know, within the debate, 0:19:55.200 --> 0:19:58.880 any given debate, there's always one side. It's easier to get, 0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:03.680 i would say, and it's easy to get euroskeptics. Brexiteers 0:20:03.800 --> 0:20:06.639 is one phrase. Roland Road is a little different. He 0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:09.919 is in the public relations business, but that barely describes 0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:14.840 his commitment to the fabric of London and actually doing 0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:19.119 things instead of talking about it. Mr Rudd has an 0:20:19.119 --> 0:20:22.760 affiliation with one of the jewels of London, the Royal 0:20:22.840 --> 0:20:27.440 Opera House, where in a today rather you will see Barnie. 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:32.480 Will you be going to the opera tonight? Mr Rudd, Well, 0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:36.040 I'm not actually going tonight. I've got a dinner with 0:20:36.200 --> 0:20:38.960 them very cent piece, where we're going to continue the 0:20:39.000 --> 0:20:42.560 great discussion that you were just touching on the fabric 0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:46.359 of London. If the Brexiteers win, if they push Prime 0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:49.720 Minister May and Mr Corbin aside and we go through 0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:53.440 the tumult that we've we're all exhausted from. Will your 0:20:53.560 --> 0:21:00.600 London change, Well, it will undoubtedly change. I mean, if 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:05.399 we go for a Brexit deal where we're closely aligned 0:21:05.800 --> 0:21:11.080 to the European Union, it will be you know, incremental slow, 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:16.960 but a clear decline over a decade. Whereas if we 0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:20.200 go for this, you know, for some reason we crashed out, 0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:23.160 which I really don't think will happen now, but if 0:21:23.200 --> 0:21:26.880 we did, it would be very quick and very brutal, 0:21:27.480 --> 0:21:31.720 and we would see the difference within and it would 0:21:31.720 --> 0:21:35.960 be quite catastrophic I think for our city and country. 0:21:36.160 --> 0:21:38.920 The Times of London has that Labor MP who writes 0:21:39.520 --> 0:21:42.359 without his name. I think it's almost every day in 0:21:42.359 --> 0:21:45.520 the in the newspaper, and he is a remain Labor 0:21:45.640 --> 0:21:51.280 right whose constituents are Leave people. How prevalent is that 0:21:51.280 --> 0:21:55.080 would you say across the Great Britain? I mean, are 0:21:55.080 --> 0:21:58.120 there a lot of MPs talk and remain where their 0:21:58.200 --> 0:22:03.200 constituents are talking? Lee? Yeah, I wouldn't say there are 0:22:03.520 --> 0:22:09.360 a lot. I can think of quite a few Labor 0:22:09.520 --> 0:22:15.480 mtes who are basically remainers, who represent Leave constituencies and 0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:22.400 have steadfastly refused to support putting the any potential deal 0:22:22.480 --> 0:22:25.320 back to the people. So it works the other way 0:22:25.359 --> 0:22:29.919 as well. But I think what you've seen recently is 0:22:30.040 --> 0:22:37.040 Parliament really reaffirming its its authority and really ensuring that 0:22:37.280 --> 0:22:41.040 ultimately it will have the final say, and even the 0:22:41.040 --> 0:22:43.119 Prime Minister, you know, last night when she made her 0:22:43.160 --> 0:22:47.480 decision to cut a drift the sort of far right 0:22:47.520 --> 0:22:50.119 of the party known as the e r G, the 0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:53.600 European Reformed Group UM, but she made clear that if 0:22:53.640 --> 0:22:56.480 she can't do a deal with Corbyn, that's plan A. 0:22:56.520 --> 0:23:00.920 Plan B is literally to allow Parliament to the side 0:23:01.600 --> 0:23:05.359 in a sort of alternative vote system. So Roland, as 0:23:05.400 --> 0:23:08.879 we get down to the final days, although they're very well, 0:23:08.920 --> 0:23:12.399 maybe a further extension, what is the view of the 0:23:12.440 --> 0:23:15.000 EU right now? Do you think they're in more of 0:23:15.040 --> 0:23:16.919 a mood to do some type of deal, to be 0:23:17.000 --> 0:23:20.520 a little bit more flexible to help the UK. Long. 0:23:22.000 --> 0:23:23.399 I think they are, But I think you have to 0:23:23.440 --> 0:23:28.560 divide it. So if you take Germany and someone like 0:23:28.640 --> 0:23:33.359