1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:22,799 Speaker 2: This is Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston bringing you 3 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 2: stories of capitalism. Losing valuable people to migration isn't that unusual? 4 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 2: But what does it mean when even your former prime 5 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 2: minister leaves to find opportunities elsewhere? Plus President Trump is 6 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 2: a big booster of stable coins, but what are they 7 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 2: actually good for and what do they mean for the 8 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 2: banking system? And grocery shells are packed with more varieties 9 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 2: of bubbly water than you can count. Why are there 10 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 2: so many? And how many will survive? But we start 11 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 2: with the postponed Beijing summit between President Trump and President 12 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 2: g were scheduled because of a war in Iran that 13 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 2: was supposed to be over by now. How much will 14 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,759 Speaker 2: it affect discussions between the two leaders, assuming that they 15 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 2: happen as planned. Meyron Brilliant is a senior counselor at 16 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 2: the DGA Albright Group and recently returned from China. 17 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 3: I think there's been a fair amount between the economic leaders, 18 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 3: right so, Vice Premier Holofong on the Chinese side and 19 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:24,680 Speaker 3: his counterpart here, Secretary President Ambassad Greer. I have had 20 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,040 Speaker 3: six or seven rounds of discussions. So I think on 21 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 3: that side they understand where the guardrails are, what can 22 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 3: be done. There are some questions about, you know, how 23 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 3: much can be done in areas like export controls. But 24 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 3: I think I think the United States thinks they're going 25 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 3: to get something on you know, market access, more beef, 26 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 3: more soybeans, maybe Boeing planes, something progress in those kinds 27 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 3: of areas. So I think that side of the equation 28 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 3: is good. The side that is less clear is the 29 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 3: political side. As you suggested, somewhat to this nature, with 30 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 3: this high expectations tend to take months to prepare. With 31 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 3: the press and the administration distracted by the war in 32 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 3: the Middle East, it's not had the same level of 33 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 3: political connectivity between say, Foreign Minister Wange and his counterpart, 34 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 3: Secretary of State Rubio. There is dialogue, but I'm not 35 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 3: sure the infrastructure the system has been as deep and 36 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 3: broad as you would expect of as summit of this nature. 37 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 2: If you think about the wish list from the two sides. 38 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 2: You just mentioned some of the things the United States 39 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 2: would like selling more soybins, for example, Boeing planes or 40 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 2: things like that. But this is the first meeting these 41 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 2: two leaders since they really had sort of a trade dispute, 42 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 2: particularly over things like critical minerals. Have they put it 43 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 2: back together. 44 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 3: Well, twenty five was a tumultuous year in the US 45 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 3: China relationship, right there was the escalation on terraffs, and 46 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 3: of course, you know, I think China was more prepared 47 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 3: and they use their advantage. They leveraged the critical minerals 48 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 3: rare earth issue to their advantage and they put some 49 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 3: choke points on the Uni States, not just the United States, 50 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 3: Japan as well. So twenty five was an unpredictable and 51 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 3: complicated year. Twenty twenty six hasn't been made easier by 52 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 3: the situation and wrong because that's another dynamic in the relationship. 53 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 3: But both sides recognize that a global recession doesn't serve 54 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,639 Speaker 3: their interests. Both sides are trying to manage a further 55 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 3: deterioration of the relationship. It's not because they want to 56 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 3: be friends, but it's because each side recognizes that stability 57 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 3: is in their self interest. 58 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:29,799 Speaker 4: So that's what they're managing. 59 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:33,399 Speaker 3: They're trying to create a concrete list of deliverables. It's 60 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 3: not going to be a home run of a visit, 61 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 3: but even moving incrementally forward and having the optics of 62 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 3: the two leaders meet not just once, but possibly two 63 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 3: or three times this year. 64 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 4: That's progress in one sense. 65 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 3: That creates some stability, But to me, it's not a ceiling, 66 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 3: it's a floor. 67 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 2: You mentioned that President Trump said he'd like to have 68 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 2: several minute meetings this year. Does that reduce the likelihood 69 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 2: that any one meeting will have a major breakthrough because 70 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 2: the Chinese are thingk in wait a second, we've got 71 00:03:58,920 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 2: more of these coming. 72 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 5: Well. 73 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 3: I was in Beijing, as you know, ten days ago, 74 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 3: and my sense is that Chinese are pretty confident. They 75 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 3: think they've cracked the code on President Trump. They think 76 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 3: they've you know, they got a playbook, and their playbook 77 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 3: is not to appease the Trump administration like they did 78 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 3: try and Trump one point zero and Trump two point zero. 79 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 3: They're punching back, and we see a little bit of 80 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 3: this on both sides. 81 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 4: Tip for tat US issues. 82 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 3: New regulations under the FCC, the Chinese issue new exit 83 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 3: bans that affect supply chains on critical minerals. So each 84 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 3: side is feeling each other out sort of speak. I 85 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 3: think ultimately China will do enough to create some momentum 86 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 3: out of this visit, but not so much that they 87 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:47,720 Speaker 3: deliver all that they can deliver in this first summit. 88 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 3: They're going to test the market, meaning they're going to 89 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 3: test whether they can count on Trump delivering, and that's 90 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 3: that's pretty unpredictable right now. 91 00:04:57,440 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 2: What's on the Chinese wish list? What do they want 92 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:00,719 Speaker 2: home to deliver? 93 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 4: I think a couple of things, and I think they're 94 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 4: going to be hard to get. 95 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 3: One is they want guardrails around export controls, but you 96 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 3: know from the administration officials I talked to, they don't 97 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 3: want to go there. They view that as a national 98 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 3: security imperative in the United States, not something to negotiate 99 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 3: in the China US relationship, but that's clearly high on 100 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 3: their list. Second, they want some kind of clarity on tariffs. 101 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 3: There there's a little bit of give and take. The 102 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 3: administration seems to like this idea of a board of trade. 103 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 3: Each side gives up something on tariffs. We want to 104 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 3: get something back in return, obviously market access, but I 105 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 3: think that is negotiable. The third thing is I think 106 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:43,239 Speaker 3: the administration has to watch out for, is the Chinese 107 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:46,359 Speaker 3: wants something on Taiwan. They'd love to see the President 108 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 3: make some kind of statement around peaceful unification. We've had 109 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 3: five decades where the United States has stayed the course 110 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 3: on its policy on Taiwan. The Chinese think that dealing 111 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 3: with the President of the United States, they might be 112 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 3: able to get something done in Taiwan. 113 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 4: I hope not. That would be a game changer. 114 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 2: Is there any prospect that President Trump might ask for 115 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 2: help from President g on Iran. 116 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 3: I think that he'll lean in on that issue, But 117 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 3: depending what you refer as help, I think he'll lean 118 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 3: in in trying to get the Chinese to back off helping. 119 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 3: But we know that China has already helped Iran on 120 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 3: surveillance technology. We know that they've helped on drone technology. 121 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 3: So China's leaned in a little bit. But China has 122 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 3: to be careful. Their stakes in the Middle East are 123 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 3: not as high as their stakes in the US China 124 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:41,039 Speaker 3: relationship stability between China United States is still a higher 125 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,599 Speaker 3: priority than coming to the aid of Iran. They know 126 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 3: that they do have ten percent of their coming from Iran, 127 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 3: but they have diversified in the energy space, not just 128 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 3: on oil and gas suppliers, but also in solar and renewables. 129 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:58,720 Speaker 4: So therefore they're less. 130 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 3: Reliant on Iran than they use to be, and that 131 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:02,799 Speaker 3: also factors into their equation. 132 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 2: You know China, well you also know US business. Well 133 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 2: for US business people leaders in this country, what should 134 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 2: they be looking at in this summit? 135 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 4: Well, you know, symbols matter. 136 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 3: So let's see what happens with China and the United 137 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 3: States at the summit. Do the leaders embrace some kind 138 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 3: of pact. Do they provide a little bit more business certainty? 139 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 3: Do they create space on both sides where there's not 140 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 3: going to be this tit for tat retaliation. There's a 141 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 3: lot of sensitivities. There's a lot of competition. I'm looking 142 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 3: for symbols on AI. Okay, we're going to compete intensely 143 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 3: with China on AI, but we also have to think 144 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 3: about the risk in the system. And China raise that 145 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 3: government leader after government leader raised AI. Is is this 146 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 3: an opportunity? I think business would encourage that. Look, you know, 147 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 3: during the height of the Soviet Unions Cold War, we 148 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 3: had a hotline between Moscow and want Washington. Should we 149 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 3: create an AI hotline? Should we have red lines on AI? 150 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 3: Should we create safety protocols? So this is the kind 151 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 3: of things that I think would be stabilizing in the relationship. 152 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 4: We're looking for that. 153 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 3: We're obviously also looking for each side to pull back 154 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 3: on some of the regulatory behavior that creates mischief in 155 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 3: the relationship, that creates irritants and creates impediments, and we'll 156 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 3: hope to see some of that come out of this summit. 157 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 3: But the deliverables that we see at the summit are 158 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 3: not going to be home runs. They're going to be singles. 159 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 3: Singles matter. You get enough singles, you score runs. But 160 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 3: I think we should be cautioned against having high expectations 161 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 3: at the first summit, but it's still important to have. 162 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 2: It was the Iran war that caused the delay in 163 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 2: the summit. 164 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 6: What we've seen over the past year and almost a 165 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 6: half between the two countries has been this kind of 166 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 6: Titford hat diplomacy around. 167 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 2: But Elizabeth Economy, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, thinks 168 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 2: that that will not be this central issue for the 169 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 2: leaders as they look for common ground. There is a 170 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 2: summit schedule between President Trump and President g in Beijing. 171 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 2: First of all, will it happen. 172 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 6: I think it's going to happen. I think we're in 173 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 6: the midst of a ceasefire. I think the President is 174 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 6: determined to hold the ceasefire in Iran in order to 175 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 6: have the summit, if for no other reason. 176 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 2: How much will Iran influence the agenda at the summit. 177 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 6: I think the Iranian issue and the war in Iran 178 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 6: is going to be a secondary issue. I think, for 179 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 6: she didn't ping in for Donald Trump, this summit is 180 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:35,679 Speaker 6: really about finding a degree of stability in the relationship. 181 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 6: I think that's really the issue on which both sides 182 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 6: are aligned, and I think that's going to come in 183 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 6: the trade and the investment realm. So I think Iran 184 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 6: will be there, Russia Ukraine will be there, but they'll 185 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 6: be very much secondary issues. 186 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 2: Do the Chinese trust President Trump because President Trump is 187 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 2: known for being sort of unpredictable at times. 188 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 6: Yes, I think that they trust that if he gets 189 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 6: what he wants, that he will also give to them, 190 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 6: and so I think they've spent a lot of time 191 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 6: trying to understand what his priorities are and what he's 192 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 6: prepared to give in return. Of course, they were very 193 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 6: pleasantly surprised by the President's decision to allow the export 194 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:16,439 Speaker 6: of H two hundreds last summer. That was a big 195 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 6: win for the Chinese. So I think they're looking similarly 196 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 6: for some new technologies to be lifted out of the 197 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 6: export control bucket. I think they'd like to see a 198 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 6: reduction in the tariffs. Basically, they want to be treated 199 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 6: as a normal power. They don't want to have sort 200 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 6: of the highest tariffs, the highest number of export controls, 201 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 6: and the most investment restrictions placed on them. 202 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 2: A lot has been said about the competition in AI 203 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 2: between the United States and China. Is there also possibility 204 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 2: for cooperation? I see now the White House is now 205 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 2: saying maybe we should have some rules about releasing new 206 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,560 Speaker 2: models modems. Do you think President She's opened some sort 207 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 2: of a multilateral agreement. 208 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 6: I think that would be a very very complex lex negotiation. 209 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 6: What I understand is on the table for the summit 210 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 6: at a very least is really a negotiation around both 211 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:14,080 Speaker 6: sides agreeing to terms for keeping AI models, certain AI models, 212 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 6: advanced AI out of the hands of rogue actors. I 213 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:21,000 Speaker 6: think that's the sort of starting point for where the 214 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 6: two sides might come together. 215 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 2: Coming up the brain drain away from New Zealand, what's 216 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 2: causing it and can anything be done? This is a 217 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,439 Speaker 2: story about a trade deficit, not in goods or services, 218 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 2: but in intellectual capital. The ebbs and flows of migration 219 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 2: mean that any country's human resources fluctuate over time. But 220 00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:57,240 Speaker 2: what happens when they go only one way and over 221 00:11:57,280 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 2: an extended period of time? What kind of country do 222 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 2: to turn things around? That is the question New Zealand 223 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 2: is asking itself right now. 224 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 7: Can I describe a long black place. 225 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 2: In Melbourne, the so called coffee capital of the world. 226 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 2: Lawyer Sean Collier has found. 227 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 4: A new home, Thank you so much. 228 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:19,080 Speaker 2: The New Zealander moved to Australia in twenty twenty three. 229 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 7: I would say pretty much entirely for economic reasons. I 230 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:26,520 Speaker 7: was working as a lawyer in Auckland for about a 231 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 7: year and a half and I was essentially living at 232 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 7: subsistence level, pretty much unable to save any money. I 233 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 7: was Once you get paid, it would just be rent, groceries, gas, All. 234 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 4: The money's gone. 235 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:43,560 Speaker 7: Essentially, everyone's got like a different sort of version of events. 236 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 7: But for me at least, I basically doubled my income 237 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 7: in less than a year and the cost living went down, 238 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:51,680 Speaker 7: so the grass was very much greener. 239 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 2: Cayer is part of a growing movement. About forty one 240 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 2: thousand to New Zealanders moved to Australia in twenty twenty five, 241 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 2: the highest level in twelve years, with more than half 242 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 2: of those estimated to be between ages twenty and thirty nine, 243 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 2: and earlier this year, former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern joined them, 244 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 2: a move which made international headlines and shown a light 245 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 2: on New Zealand's economy. 246 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 8: There's a bit of a view that our economy isn't 247 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 8: performing quite as well as Australia's economy. Then you're feeding 248 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 8: the narrative that people are starting to hear at dinner 249 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 8: parties that you know, all of our children are leaving, 250 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 8: all the healthcare services are better, or some other kind 251 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 8: of thing like Ardern. 252 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 2: John Key is also a former Prime Minister of New 253 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,599 Speaker 2: Zealand and before that was global head of Foreign Exchange 254 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 2: at Merrill Lynch. 255 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 8: The New Zealand economy is not as strong as we'd 256 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 8: like to be, and maybe not as strong as historically 257 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 8: it has been, but it's not a story of universal 258 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 8: lower growth. Actually, Auckland and Wellington, the main censers, have 259 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 8: been weaker and largely weaker because of negative house prices, 260 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 8: so they said a big impact on construction and all 261 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 8: sorts of activity related around housing and the sort of 262 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 8: negative wealth effect of people living in Auckland. And when 263 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 8: you think Auckland is home to one and a half 264 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 8: million people of a population about five million, it has 265 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 8: quite a big impact. So yeah, that's been a bit negative. 266 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 8: But the rest of the country have been very strong. Actually, 267 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 8: rural prices have been strong, so we're a big food producer. 268 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 8: Basically started life as Britain's little farm and we continue 269 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 8: to be that. We very much a strong food producer. 270 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 8: So that part of the country has been good and 271 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 8: there's lots of exciting things happening. When New Zealanders have 272 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 8: always left for Australia, questions where they come home, largely 273 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 8: they do, but not always. I mean, if you look 274 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 8: at New Zealand, we're at home of say five million people. 275 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 8: Now about half a million, maybe as many as a 276 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 8: million New Zealanders live in Australia, so it's quite a few. 277 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 8: We're a little bit like Canada is to the United States, 278 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 8: and the United States is a sort of magnet for 279 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 8: talent out of Canada. Pay packets are higher, opportunities are greater. 280 00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 8: It's a little bit like that from New Zealand to Australia. 281 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 8: And every New Zealander has a free option, so you're 282 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 8: free to go to Australia. It depends on the conditions 283 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 8: of how you go, but you are free to go. 284 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 8: So it's a very open labor market and this is 285 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 8: no question that those jobs and opportunities are bigger, and 286 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 8: the lifestyle is very similar. 287 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 2: But while New Zealanders have always sought the experience of 288 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 2: living overseas, be it Australia, the UK, or US, typically 289 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 2: they would return home eventually to start a family and 290 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 2: buy a house, often with more wealth and increased expertise 291 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 2: from their time overseas. 292 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 7: I've always thought I would raise my kids and ends ed, 293 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 7: you know, I've always like, when I moved here, the 294 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 7: plan was to sort of get a bunch of money 295 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 7: together and go home. And I've spoken to a lot 296 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 7: of Kiwis over here and that's very much their intention 297 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 7: as well. But to be honest, like all of the 298 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 7: out of all the Kiwis I know that have moved here, 299 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 7: I couldn't. I couldn't name more than like, you know, 300 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 7: three or four that have actually returned. So I think, 301 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 7: I don't know, it's a pretty big it's a pretty 302 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 7: big issue, Like it's looking less and less realistic for me. 303 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 2: And it's showing up in the numbers. New Zealand's net 304 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 2: citizen migration is at its lowest since official data began 305 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 2: in two thousand and one. In other words, people are 306 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 2: leaving like they always did, but now they're no longer 307 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 2: coming back. 308 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 1: New Zealand has got a very big productivity problem in 309 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 1: that its economy is just muddling through. 310 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 2: Julian ted Is Provost at King's College, Cambridge. 311 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 1: There's a lot of self inflicted wounds in New Zealand, 312 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 1: not least, for example, the nimbiism that vents people from 313 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 1: building enough houses to ensure that everyone could get access 314 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 1: to a house cheaply and easily. So you're creating a 315 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 1: New Zealand a real intergenerational inequality problem in that people 316 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 1: are inheriting assets are doing well, others aren't. So New 317 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 1: Zealand has got a lot of problems and that's one 318 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 1: reason why you've got New Zealanders leaving at the moment. 319 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: But in terms of trying to attract some more people 320 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: in smart talent that really is the big new game 321 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: in town. 322 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 2: New Zealand's problem is not unique. Poland experienced brain drain 323 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 2: after joining the EU, Ireland did so in the wake 324 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:15,640 Speaker 2: of the Great Financial Crisis, and Portugal is the latest 325 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:19,920 Speaker 2: in Europe. In all three examples, citizens saw new opportunities 326 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 2: for higher pay and better jobs elsewhere. But Tet says, 327 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 2: the loss of intellectual capital isn't always a bad thing. 328 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:30,040 Speaker 9: Is the flow of intellectual capital necessarily a zero sum game. 329 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,440 Speaker 9: I saw a recent report that suggested actually both countries 330 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 9: could benefit because people when they go someplace else, remintain 331 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:40,160 Speaker 9: relations back with their home country and there can be 332 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 9: a flow of capital of business across the boats boundaries. 333 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 9: Can it be something that could benefit both countries. 334 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 1: One of the biggest mistake you will make is regard 335 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,679 Speaker 1: intellectual capital as a zero sum game and to assume 336 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 1: they have to hang on to their brilliant minds at 337 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,439 Speaker 1: all costs and stop them from going around the world. 338 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:01,159 Speaker 1: That was a disastrous mistake because Street shows very clearly 339 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,640 Speaker 1: that to get innovation you ideally need to have one 340 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: or two things happening, ideally both at the same time. 341 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:08,879 Speaker 1: On the one hand, you need to have clusters of 342 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,159 Speaker 1: brilliant minds who can bump into each other, ideally from 343 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 1: different disciplines to create that kind of indisciplinary collisions and creativity. 344 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:21,679 Speaker 1: But you also to have some diversity and serendipity that 345 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 1: allows people to bump into entirely different ideas in a 346 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,639 Speaker 1: way that enables them to be more creative. But in 347 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:32,920 Speaker 1: terms of people moving around and spending stints of research 348 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 1: time in different intellectual hubs and environments, it's absolutely crucial 349 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 1: if you want to keep ideas flowing for the benefit 350 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 1: of everyone and spark new ones. And it makes my 351 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 1: blood boil when I see governments trying to shut the 352 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 1: doors on people, whether it's the European Union in the 353 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 1: UK which have not yet implemented a youth mobility scheme. 354 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 1: That makes my heartbreak. Frankly, the fact that it has 355 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 1: become harder to move scientists back and forth across borders, 356 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 1: or not just scientists, but social scientists and humanities scholars 357 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 1: as well. But also what America's doing at the moment 358 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:09,800 Speaker 1: is not helpful in terms of sparking that extraordinary if 359 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 1: you like, you know, chemical mix of brilliant minds coming together. 360 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,960 Speaker 2: A healthy flow of intellectual capital may be a good 361 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 2: thing for a country, but it needs to flow in 362 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:24,679 Speaker 2: both directions. Poland provides tax incentives and other support for 363 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 2: citizens to return Ireland's corporate tax rate attracted foreign direct 364 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 2: investment to promote job growth, and Portugal is looking to 365 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 2: stem its brain drain by offering tax exemptions for a 366 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 2: worker's first decade of employment. 367 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,879 Speaker 8: As politicians, and I think even as business leaders, we 368 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 8: feel unclean about any kind of incentive to do something. 369 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,159 Speaker 8: And so for instance, of my day, I've put up 370 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 8: pretty big incentives for movies to be made that led 371 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 8: to the Hobbits and so many other things happening in Avatar, 372 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,600 Speaker 8: and you mentionine the skills and technology and capacity that 373 00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 8: came off there. But it caused the massive outcry that 374 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 8: we were essentially giving back some of the indirect tax 375 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 8: that we got in the form of subsea because we 376 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 8: didn't normally do that. But Ireland's done that, It's been 377 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 8: quite prepared to do that. I mean, Israel probably has 378 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 8: some centers all over the show I'm guessing in the 379 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:18,159 Speaker 8: technology space. So I'm not arguing that we need to 380 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,679 Speaker 8: go back to a sort of stupid world where politicians 381 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 8: allocate resources and the wrong outcomes come. I'm just saying, 382 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 8: I just wonder whether we sort of we let perfection 383 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 8: get in the way of the possible. 384 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 2: During Key's time in office, HSBC labeled New Zealand a 385 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 2: rock star economy, praise that enhanced its global reputation and 386 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,439 Speaker 2: helped the country experience positive net migration with Australia for 387 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:41,959 Speaker 2: the first time in twenty four years. 388 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:44,919 Speaker 8: We had political stability, you know, I was starting to 389 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 8: go through Australian prime ministers pretty rapidly. We'd had one myself, 390 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 8: and by the end of it that period of eight 391 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:56,400 Speaker 8: years in office, HSBC described US as a rock star economy. 392 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 8: So people started saying, wow, there really are some great 393 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 8: opportunities over in New Zealand. They started coming over, so 394 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 8: it's not an impossible thing to get. Sadly, what you 395 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 8: see is I mean, in a lot of ways it's 396 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 8: a good thing. But we have a very much an 397 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 8: integrated economy with Australia. So see closer Economic relations is 398 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 8: our free trade deal, and it's about the most comprehensive 399 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,680 Speaker 8: free trade deal you can get, extremely comprehensive, so goods 400 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 8: can travel and either way there are no conditions. Basically 401 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 8: investment can do the same. So one of the reasons 402 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,760 Speaker 8: why you see less Australians coming over is their investment 403 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 8: comes into New Zealand, but then they stay in Australia 404 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 8: and has someone running the operation here, but they dominos 405 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 8: all the operation in Australia. So look, it's a challenge, 406 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 8: there's no question about that. But then you've had isolated 407 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 8: parts of the country like if you look at say Queenstown, 408 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:51,400 Speaker 8: it's had enormous connectivity with Australia, deemed to be kind 409 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 8: of beautiful. They Espen of the South, it's attracted enormous 410 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,399 Speaker 8: number of migrants both from the United States, you know, Kingdom, 411 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 8: but Australia, and you are seeing positive net migration there. 412 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:08,439 Speaker 8: So it's not every place, but it's certainly been. Haw 413 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,120 Speaker 8: has felt in Auckland where people have left. I think. 414 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,120 Speaker 2: New Zealand's government has also introduced a range of measures, 415 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 2: including active investor visas for wealthy foreigners and tax incentives 416 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 2: for investment. It's not yet driven the sort of economic 417 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 2: opportunities to attract Keywi's back home, but for now, key 418 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,440 Speaker 2: says New Zealand should lean into what it's known for. 419 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:34,119 Speaker 8: It can be a little bit negative, but I don't know. 420 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,119 Speaker 8: I look at New Zealand, I say, okay, yeah, I 421 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 8: understand all that, but we're five million people. We really 422 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 8: are the last last bus stop on the planet. But 423 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 8: we kind of paradise as well. In a world where 424 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:48,479 Speaker 8: there's global insecurity, we seem like a really safe place. 425 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 8: We are incredibly beautiful. I mean, there's a lot of 426 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 8: things going for New Zealand, so I'm kind of the 427 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 8: view to say, yeah, we need to acknowledge it. The 428 00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 8: economy needs to be a bit stronger and create more opportunities. 429 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 8: But LEA, it's not sort of panic that all is 430 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,200 Speaker 8: not fixable, at least in New Zealand, because I A 431 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 8: should believe it is. 432 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:11,119 Speaker 7: In terms of actually fixing these problems, I think, yeah, 433 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,160 Speaker 7: like in a nutshell, we need to be looking at 434 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 7: things that will actually attract young people back to the country. 435 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 7: I think so many people have left now it's not 436 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:19,959 Speaker 7: going to be good enough to just stop them leaving. 437 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:22,920 Speaker 7: We actually need to look at things that will bring 438 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 7: people back. And for my generation, like the main problems 439 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 7: are hous it like being able to afford property, being 440 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 7: able to have kids, job stability, you know AI's ruining 441 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 7: job stability for a lot of people, So I think 442 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 7: our government should be looking at ways to sort of 443 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 7: guarantee that if you work hard in New Zealand, you'll 444 00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,440 Speaker 7: actually be able to have a good quality of life, 445 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,440 Speaker 7: which is not the current situation over there. 446 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 2: Up next, President Trump likes them, and the Genius Act 447 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:56,919 Speaker 2: provides a US law to regulate them. But what is 448 00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,920 Speaker 2: the real use case for stable coins and how much 449 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 2: will they transform the banking system? This is a story 450 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 2: about cutting through the noise. 451 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:20,159 Speaker 10: I think bitcoin is the king of this market. 452 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:21,639 Speaker 4: It will remain the king of this market. 453 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 11: I'm laser like focused on bitcoin. I think bitcoin is 454 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:25,600 Speaker 11: digital capital. 455 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 10: I think it's going to outperform. 456 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,880 Speaker 2: The S and PNX over the and definite future. 457 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 3: There was nothing that couldn't be done in crypto better, faster, cheaper, 458 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 3: more transparently. 459 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,680 Speaker 2: There's been a lot of noise about cryptocurrencies. It's sometimes 460 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 2: hard to sort out the crypto noise from the signal. 461 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 2: But whatever the reality behind all the hype, there is 462 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,360 Speaker 2: one particular version of cryptocurrency that is growing in use 463 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 2: that seeks to deliver on the promise of combining the 464 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 2: speed and ease of blockchain with the relative stability of currencies, 465 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 2: and that you may be using without even knowing it. 466 00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 2: According to supporters, twenty twenty five was the year of 467 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 2: the a stable coin. 468 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,919 Speaker 11: In five years or ten years, the overwhelming majority of 469 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,280 Speaker 11: the payments that happen in the world, just by sheer number. 470 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 12: Of payments are happening via stable coins. 471 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,919 Speaker 2: It can be fundamental to changing not just the financial system, 472 00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 2: but the way the broader economic system works, and as 473 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 2: of last year, the stable coin subset of crypto now 474 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,280 Speaker 2: has the regulatory backing of the US. 475 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 11: This could be perhaps the greatest revolution in financial technology 476 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 11: since the birth of the Internet itself. A lot of 477 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:32,440 Speaker 11: people are saying that I don't know, what do you 478 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 11: guys think? 479 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 2: Guess The answer to President Trump's question may lie in 480 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,920 Speaker 2: the wallets of people around the world who simply want 481 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 2: to send money across national borders. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 482 00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:47,360 Speaker 2: the total amount of money sent using stable coins will 483 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:51,639 Speaker 2: reach over fifty six trillion dollars by twenty thirty. But however, 484 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:55,919 Speaker 2: bigot ultimately gets it's starting small, with many people sending 485 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 2: just a few hundred dollars at a time. People like Hannah. 486 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 5: Nicole I have been living in New York for eight years, 487 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,280 Speaker 5: and I am a restaurant manager. I send money home 488 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,359 Speaker 5: to the Philippines. I would say about like between five 489 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 5: hundred dollars to one thousand dollars a month. I prefer 490 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,560 Speaker 5: sending money home through apps like World Remit or Remittly. 491 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 2: Donoi is one of two million Filipinos living abroad. Together, 492 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,760 Speaker 2: they sent thirty five billion dollars back to the Philippines 493 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,960 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five, equal to over seven percent of 494 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 2: the country's GDP. For Way Joe, the CEO of Philippine 495 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 2: based Coins pH this is stable coin's biggest opportunity. 496 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 13: Ten years ago, the cost of remittance for every dollar 497 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:43,160 Speaker 13: was eight percent. With technology, with better connectivity and banking rails, 498 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 13: that costs went down to like two to four percent. 499 00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:48,280 Speaker 13: By using stable coins, we can lower that cost to 500 00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 13: anywhere between you know, zero point five percent or fifty BIPs, 501 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:52,200 Speaker 13: and we hope to lower that. 502 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:53,640 Speaker 10: Even to like twenty to thirty BIPs. 503 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,320 Speaker 13: When you're running forty billion dollars with mittens, for every 504 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,520 Speaker 13: one percent that you save, you know, that's like four 505 00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:00,280 Speaker 13: hundred million dollars that goes back into you know, the 506 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:01,440 Speaker 13: people's pockets right away. 507 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,680 Speaker 2: Coins pH partners with online money transfer platforms to bring 508 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 2: stable coins to users wallets. It partners with, among others, remittly. 509 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 2: It's CEO is Sebastian Gunningham. 510 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 14: Every time that you do a send transaction, we have 511 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:20,400 Speaker 14: a transaction engine that chooses the best way to send 512 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 14: that money at low costs and at speed, so we 513 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:27,439 Speaker 14: use the stable coins rails. The machine decides is the 514 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:32,040 Speaker 14: stable coin rails better, faster, cheaper than any alternative, and 515 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,680 Speaker 14: therefore we use it. So we're we're adopting it where 516 00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 14: it's when it makes sense, where it beats price, where 517 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:39,600 Speaker 14: it beats speed. 518 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:44,359 Speaker 2: This process is called a stable coin sandwich. A user 519 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 2: in the US deposits dollars with remittely, which converts the 520 00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:51,639 Speaker 2: funds into stable coins. These stable coins travel instantly across 521 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 2: a blockchain to coins pH in the Philippines, where they 522 00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:58,159 Speaker 2: are converted into local pesos. Although users can hold the 523 00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,440 Speaker 2: stable coins in a digital wallet, for most the blockchain 524 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 2: path is entirely invisible. Customers interact only with the dollars 525 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,360 Speaker 2: at one end and the paces at the other end, 526 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,119 Speaker 2: enjoying the speed of crypto without the complexity of managing it. 527 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,800 Speaker 2: We have crypt we have stable coins. There's been a 528 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 2: fair amount volve a hilly in cryptocurrencies. Does that affect 529 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 2: stable coins? 530 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:23,120 Speaker 13: For stable coins, it is moving towards sort of, you know, 531 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,240 Speaker 13: just another word for money. Stable Coins are a type 532 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:30,480 Speaker 13: of crypto, but it's sort of like it has grown 533 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 13: out of crypto and can be its own segment. 534 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,639 Speaker 2: Now, what do you regard as your largest opportunity for growth? 535 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 13: Basically lowering the transaction costs and then decreasing the transaction 536 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,560 Speaker 13: time to move money in and out of the Philippines. 537 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,320 Speaker 10: I think right now, what we see is that. 538 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 13: There's like almost fifteen to twenty million Filipinos at work overseas, 539 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 13: either as domestic helpers work on clues liners, as factory 540 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 13: workers in the Middle East, in Korea and Japan. The 541 00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 13: financial services they need are actually back home in the 542 00:28:58,000 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 13: Philippines whereas. 543 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 10: They get paid and the local dollar. 544 00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,720 Speaker 13: We really believe that by sort of using stable coins 545 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 13: as sort of the conduit, we can actually be able 546 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 13: to deliver our financial services that they need at home 547 00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 13: here in the Philippines while working overseas. 548 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,680 Speaker 2: Last year, some estimates put the volume of stable coin 549 00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 2: transactions at around thirty five trillion dollars, but a new 550 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:24,200 Speaker 2: report for McKenzie's Matt Higginson suggests the reality is much 551 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,960 Speaker 2: more modest. How large is the stable coin market right 552 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,720 Speaker 2: now and how fast is it growing? 553 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,360 Speaker 12: So you'll hear in the media the trillions of dollars 554 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:37,120 Speaker 12: of stable coin payments today, ninety nine percent of that 555 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 12: is crypto related, not the sort of payments we think about, 556 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 12: which is company to company or even paying remittances person 557 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,560 Speaker 12: to person. And so we look at this situation today 558 00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 12: and say, how much real payments for you is there 559 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,600 Speaker 12: out there, and we think it's probably the order of 560 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 12: a billion or two a day, which is tiny. The 561 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:59,240 Speaker 12: late assessments we have are three hundred and ninety billion 562 00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:03,440 Speaker 12: dollars in the total year, and that compares with several 563 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,280 Speaker 12: trillion dollars of regular payments per. 564 00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 4: Day, so a small amount right now. 565 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 2: How does it compare with last year, and how does 566 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,000 Speaker 2: it compared with forecast for next year? 567 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:17,240 Speaker 12: The data shows that the volume of real payment transactions 568 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 12: using stable coins probably doubled over the last year. When 569 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 12: you look at the volume of stable coins in circulation, 570 00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 12: that went from around one hundred and fifty billion dollars 571 00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:30,160 Speaker 12: to three hundred billion dollars today it's doubling, which by 572 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 12: any measure is substantial in terms of growth. 573 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 2: How much of that is cross border international essentially? How 574 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:37,640 Speaker 2: much of it is domestic? 575 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 12: The vast majority is cross border. It's interesting. We've been 576 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 12: looking at the geographic source of those payments with our 577 00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:49,440 Speaker 12: research partner, Artemis Analytics. What they found is about sixty 578 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:52,680 Speaker 12: percent originates from Asia, and that surprises a little bit 579 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 12: because a lot of the talk has been in North 580 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,360 Speaker 12: America or Europe about the potential of stable coins. 581 00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 2: Asia was one of the first regions to recognize the 582 00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,360 Speaker 2: utility of stable coins and became a front runner in 583 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:08,080 Speaker 2: regulating the space for over a decade. Some Nndu Mahunte 584 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 2: was the Chief Fintech Officer at the Monetary Authority of Singapore, 585 00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:14,520 Speaker 2: where he built the country's digital asset strategy. 586 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 15: The single biggest unsolved challenge in the world of payment 587 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 15: is the crossbutter payments with today we have to depend 588 00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 15: on traditional correspondent bank in that particular use case. Stable 589 00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 15: coin is a great product. 590 00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:34,800 Speaker 2: Singapore generally is recognized as a leader in the use 591 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:39,160 Speaker 2: of an and regulation of stable coin. Why why Singapore. 592 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:44,240 Speaker 15: As a country we look at obsence innovation, and we 593 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 15: actually relentlessly focus on use case. We don't do technology 594 00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 15: for sake of technology. In Singapore's case, our focus in 595 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:56,120 Speaker 15: stable coin has always been well regulated stable coin issued 596 00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:58,560 Speaker 15: under a strong regulatory framework. 597 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,520 Speaker 2: Pen and Singapore. We're among the first to establish a 598 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:06,680 Speaker 2: framework requiring companies to maintain liquid reserves representing one hundred 599 00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,800 Speaker 2: percent of the stable coins they issued. Well Hunty says 600 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:13,600 Speaker 2: robust regulation must lead the way for stable coin to scale. 601 00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:17,280 Speaker 15: The principle of regulation should not change because payment is 602 00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:22,000 Speaker 15: a payment, know your customer, money laundering, terrorism, financing checks 603 00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 15: are I will say hygiens. They're like non negotiable. I 604 00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:33,040 Speaker 15: personally believe an existing payment regulation with some incremental coverage 605 00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:36,960 Speaker 15: for a stable coin's unique technical requirement is good enough 606 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 15: to be consistent, good enough regulation to manage this risk. 607 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:45,720 Speaker 2: And payment companies agree. Regulatory clarity allows companies to bring 608 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,400 Speaker 2: the product to more customers. 609 00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:52,160 Speaker 14: Scale matters, which means once you have the infrastructure, we 610 00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 14: can move one hundred billion dollars a year in that infrastructure, 611 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:57,840 Speaker 14: but we could also move a trillion dollars a year 612 00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 14: without much more. Building trust is expensive, Doing compliance is expensive. 613 00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:06,600 Speaker 14: Getting the licenses expensive. Once you put all that in place, 614 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 14: it's a highly scalable business. 615 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,520 Speaker 2: Today stable coins are still small players against a colossal 616 00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:17,360 Speaker 2: banking system, but they are gaining momentum, with growth expected 617 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,880 Speaker 2: to speed up as the Genius Act in the United 618 00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:21,240 Speaker 2: States comes into effect. 619 00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:23,480 Speaker 12: The Genius Act will come into force by the end 620 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,479 Speaker 12: of the year, and other regulations I expect will follow. 621 00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:31,120 Speaker 12: So we haven't really gone live yet at scale, so 622 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,360 Speaker 12: I think we have a little time before that train 623 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 12: leaves the station. The sobering part of that is when 624 00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:38,960 Speaker 12: it does leave the station, we're going to have adoption 625 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:39,520 Speaker 12: at scale. 626 00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:40,920 Speaker 10: We've got groups of. 627 00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:45,080 Speaker 12: Banks, potentially dozens of banks suddenly all participating together, and 628 00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,560 Speaker 12: I think there will be a bit of a scramble 629 00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:51,400 Speaker 12: to position myself as a bank between stable coin and 630 00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 12: customer to provide the best interface. 631 00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:59,000 Speaker 2: What does your success potentially mean for traditional banks? 632 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,280 Speaker 13: There's one bank Care in the Philippines that was like 633 00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,680 Speaker 13: top ten, maybe like six or seventh, but because they're 634 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,520 Speaker 13: the only one or the first one to bank you know, 635 00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,359 Speaker 13: exchanges like ourselves, they're now now a top three bank. 636 00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,040 Speaker 2: Fast is nice, but when it comes to our money, 637 00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,759 Speaker 2: there's also something to be said for slow. 638 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,479 Speaker 5: So stable coins is something I would be willing to try. 639 00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:22,480 Speaker 5: It's just going to be a matter of convenience, and 640 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,120 Speaker 5: then I'm just not too educated about it. I would 641 00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,719 Speaker 5: also consider if it's also going to be convenient with 642 00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 5: my family, because they're not really tech savy, so I 643 00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:32,080 Speaker 5: want to make sure that it's going to be easy 644 00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:35,080 Speaker 5: for them as well. Trusting an app is really important 645 00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:36,920 Speaker 5: for me because it's my hard earned money. 646 00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,640 Speaker 2: The use of stable coin for cross border transfers is 647 00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:44,000 Speaker 2: more for small and medium sized businesses rather than big businesses. 648 00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,040 Speaker 2: Why don't the big businesses use it for that purpose? 649 00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,759 Speaker 15: Well, I used to joke that if one thing you 650 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,000 Speaker 15: don't want to be instant and quick, it is large transfers, 651 00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:59,480 Speaker 15: because nobody's looking to instantly transfer five million dollars. You 652 00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:03,320 Speaker 15: want to be that's slow possible, has friction in between 653 00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:06,399 Speaker 15: so that you don't make mistakes. But you don't want 654 00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 15: to apply those principles on a small two hundred dollars 655 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,680 Speaker 15: transfer across the border, because you're taking a speed versus 656 00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:15,919 Speaker 15: the amount of calibrated risk kill. 657 00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:20,160 Speaker 13: I've been in crypto for about eight years, and then 658 00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,520 Speaker 13: you know when I first came in I was like, oh, like, 659 00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,719 Speaker 13: let's go unbanked, you know, like, you know, let's take 660 00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,960 Speaker 13: it to Wall Street. But now I've been industry for 661 00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,200 Speaker 13: such a long time, I've come to appreciate the role 662 00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:34,080 Speaker 13: that banks serve, right, Like sometimes you just feel safer 663 00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:34,520 Speaker 13: with your. 664 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:36,359 Speaker 10: Money in the bank, right in a vault. 665 00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,200 Speaker 13: And they've been attacked left, right, front and center by 666 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,399 Speaker 13: all kinds of you know, bad actors. But I think 667 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,279 Speaker 13: for them to grow, I you know, I think those 668 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,319 Speaker 13: that embrace this technology, embrace table coins, I think it's 669 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:49,400 Speaker 13: going to grow leaps and downs faster than those that 670 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:53,000 Speaker 13: do not work with us and grow together or you can, 671 00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:54,279 Speaker 13: you know, continue just to be a bank. 672 00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,960 Speaker 2: Technology might be driving us all sort of future that's faster, cheaper, 673 00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:04,239 Speaker 2: and more convenient, but it's not necessarily for everyone or 674 00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:07,239 Speaker 2: for every transaction, And for stable coins to reach their 675 00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:10,959 Speaker 2: full potential, they may need more regulation with the aim 676 00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:14,200 Speaker 2: of fitting in to the legacy banking system rather than 677 00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:21,440 Speaker 2: replacing it. Coming up from spin drift to liquid death, 678 00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:25,040 Speaker 2: grocery shells are packed with every kind of carbonated water. 679 00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:40,600 Speaker 2: Why so many and how many will survive? This is 680 00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:43,640 Speaker 2: a story about saturation. Walk down the aisle of your 681 00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,600 Speaker 2: favorite food store, and you're likely to find more varieties 682 00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:50,080 Speaker 2: of bubbly waters than you can count, everything from Lacroix 683 00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:53,520 Speaker 2: to spin Drift, not to mention Liquid Death and Waterloop 684 00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:55,880 Speaker 2: and a host of others. Why do we need so 685 00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:59,759 Speaker 2: many variations of what is essentially water? And why is 686 00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,600 Speaker 2: there room in the marketplace for so many competitors? 687 00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:09,680 Speaker 11: The whole bevers category is atomized. At the end of 688 00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:11,239 Speaker 11: the day, there's almost so much real estate in that 689 00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:12,839 Speaker 11: grocery store that you go shopping down. 690 00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,800 Speaker 2: Dave Berwick is now CEO of higher end fruit infused 691 00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:22,480 Speaker 2: sparkling water makers Spin Drift, after serving as CEO of 692 00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:26,360 Speaker 2: Pete's Coffee and Boston Beer and spending twenty years at Pepsi. 693 00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:30,360 Speaker 11: All those brands have to prove themselves to those retailers 694 00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,839 Speaker 11: who own those shelves that they're worthy of being on 695 00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,680 Speaker 11: that shelf. So, again, is what makes a category really 696 00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,719 Speaker 11: challenging for me? It's what I love about the category 697 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:42,400 Speaker 11: because you know, nothing worth doing in life is really easy, 698 00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:44,160 Speaker 11: and this is not easy. 699 00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,360 Speaker 2: If it's hard to succeed in the carbonated water business, 700 00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:54,120 Speaker 2: why are so many companies going into it. Part of 701 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,239 Speaker 2: the answer is that it is easy to get a 702 00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:59,480 Speaker 2: foot in the door. Adam Wagley is co founder and 703 00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:03,279 Speaker 2: CEO of Butterfly, a venture investment firm focused on all 704 00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:05,000 Speaker 2: areas of the food industry. 705 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,080 Speaker 16: It's become a lot easier, a lot lower barriers to 706 00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:11,400 Speaker 16: entry to creating these brands than ever before because the 707 00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:15,200 Speaker 16: infrastructure around creating these brands has enabled that. You know, 708 00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:17,440 Speaker 16: in the last ten years that we've kind of gotten 709 00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:19,760 Speaker 16: into the space. This used to work in the past 710 00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,560 Speaker 16: is you'd have to kind of do everything yourself from 711 00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:26,680 Speaker 16: scrapped from kind of developing the brand and developing the formulation, 712 00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:31,000 Speaker 16: maybe even getting into manufacturing, finding out how to get 713 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:35,200 Speaker 16: your product placed, et cetera. Today, there are many different 714 00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:39,840 Speaker 16: outsourced businesses that support this ecosystem. So you can in 715 00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,479 Speaker 16: fact go to a co manufacturer who can actually make 716 00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:46,160 Speaker 16: the product, they can formulate it for you. They'll usually 717 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,480 Speaker 16: work with a packaging company that can help you put 718 00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,160 Speaker 16: the packaging together, and then you can go to outsourced 719 00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:54,120 Speaker 16: marketing organizations that can tell you how to launch a 720 00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:57,799 Speaker 16: brand online or you know, from a social media standpoint 721 00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,600 Speaker 16: and kind of get going in those kind of formats 722 00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,640 Speaker 16: if you will. So there's this sort of infrastructure of 723 00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:07,760 Speaker 16: companies that we call enablers here at Butterfly that actually 724 00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:11,760 Speaker 16: support the different infrastructure that a founder or CEO needs 725 00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:13,400 Speaker 16: to go create a business from scrapped. 726 00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:17,480 Speaker 2: The Bubbly Water business is part of a global beverage 727 00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,200 Speaker 2: market that sold over a trillion dollars worth of soft 728 00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:23,000 Speaker 2: drinks last year. More than a third of that was 729 00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:27,240 Speaker 2: SODA's ubiquitous cokes, Pepsis and their brethren, But those soda 730 00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,960 Speaker 2: sales have come down twenty seven percent over the last 731 00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:33,360 Speaker 2: two decades, giving up market share to various forms of water, 732 00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,400 Speaker 2: which now account for over a quarter of all beverage sales. 733 00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,840 Speaker 2: Carbonated water is only a modest share of that, but 734 00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:43,080 Speaker 2: it is growing noticeably faster than its peers in the US. 735 00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:48,560 Speaker 2: Among the driving factors a desire for healthier alternatives to soda. 736 00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:53,000 Speaker 2: That's what led Nicole Bernard Dawes to launch her product Nixy. 737 00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:56,360 Speaker 17: While the snack aisle and the produce aisle, even the 738 00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:59,560 Speaker 17: dairy aisle, we're getting more and more healthier organic products, 739 00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:05,240 Speaker 17: beverageile was still filled with sugar and plastic and almost 740 00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:09,600 Speaker 17: no certified organic products. I really saw an opportunity and 741 00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,279 Speaker 17: I also really felt it was important to have zero 742 00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:14,719 Speaker 17: sugar because I you know, I think liquid sugar is 743 00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:18,239 Speaker 17: just not a healthy thing for anybody. We knew we 744 00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,480 Speaker 17: wanted to be a healthy beverage brand, like that's our mission, 745 00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,640 Speaker 17: that's who we are. We started with Sparkling Water, which 746 00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,080 Speaker 17: you know, we felt was one of the cleanest. We 747 00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:28,600 Speaker 17: felt it really defined kind of what we were trying 748 00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,399 Speaker 17: to achieve, and then after we got that out into 749 00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:33,800 Speaker 17: the market, we started working on a zero sugar soda. 750 00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,400 Speaker 17: Zero sugar is still one of the largest drivers of 751 00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:40,280 Speaker 17: even conventional beverage. For the conventional soda brands, zero sugar 752 00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,400 Speaker 17: is their biggest part of the growth for their business. 753 00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:47,120 Speaker 17: And I think that also was exciting to me because 754 00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:49,640 Speaker 17: you know, with you, when you have a category that large, 755 00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,439 Speaker 17: you know, there's a segment of the population not being 756 00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:54,600 Speaker 17: served by the products that are the number one or 757 00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:58,120 Speaker 17: number two products. You're hearing the term modern soda a lot, 758 00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,719 Speaker 17: and if you went into a grocery store or you 759 00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,600 Speaker 17: know a few years ago, you might have two or 760 00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:07,279 Speaker 17: three feet for this new type of soda, and now 761 00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:09,480 Speaker 17: you're going in and you're seeing, you know, chains like 762 00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:12,520 Speaker 17: Walmart expanding from two feet to eight or twelve feet. 763 00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:16,239 Speaker 2: That growth of the bubbly water segment makes more attractive 764 00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:18,520 Speaker 2: a business that's easy to get into in the first place, 765 00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,400 Speaker 2: a form of making it up on volume. 766 00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:25,000 Speaker 17: It's a great business, which is why I do it. 767 00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:28,319 Speaker 17: I mean I love big categories because you know, think 768 00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,400 Speaker 17: about it. If you're talking about ten billion dollar category, 769 00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:32,000 Speaker 17: you don't have to be a significant part of that 770 00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:33,440 Speaker 17: to be a significant business. 771 00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:37,160 Speaker 2: What is the opportunity you see for spin Drift When we. 772 00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:38,600 Speaker 11: Came in about a year and a half ago, was 773 00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:40,560 Speaker 11: about a three hundred million dollar business. Will be close 774 00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:42,840 Speaker 11: to a half a billion dollar business at the end 775 00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,000 Speaker 11: of this year, so after two years, and I think 776 00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,400 Speaker 11: there's a clear path to a billion dollars and beyond 777 00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:51,160 Speaker 11: for this brand. The Sparkling beverage business is still growing 778 00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:53,960 Speaker 11: twenty five to thirty percent as more people come in 779 00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:55,960 Speaker 11: and when they do come in, they get to try 780 00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:58,200 Speaker 11: our brand, which we think is better than others, and 781 00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:01,399 Speaker 11: we like that. But we're also so looking at other 782 00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:05,440 Speaker 11: adjacent categories we can take sort of that core equity 783 00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,920 Speaker 11: with spindriff is, which is real squeeze fruit. How do 784 00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:10,799 Speaker 11: we take that real squeeze fruit and bring it to 785 00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:14,520 Speaker 11: other categories. So most recently we've launched a non carbonated 786 00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,600 Speaker 11: tea product that we were really excited about. So between 787 00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:21,799 Speaker 11: the core business of sparkling water adjacencies like tea, we've 788 00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:25,000 Speaker 11: also launched a soda, a healthier, better for you soda 789 00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:27,520 Speaker 11: product that can get us to a billion dollars. 790 00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:30,520 Speaker 2: It's a growing business segment, but that doesn't mean it's 791 00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,240 Speaker 2: easy to carve out a niche for any particular product, 792 00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:35,960 Speaker 2: much less succeed over the long term. 793 00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:38,840 Speaker 16: The concern though, is there are many out there, and 794 00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,200 Speaker 16: to try to figure out for us as investors which 795 00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:44,040 Speaker 16: companies are going to last and make it and really 796 00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,200 Speaker 16: created something special. We've got to really be picky about 797 00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,440 Speaker 16: what we get behind because many can kind of get 798 00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:49,880 Speaker 16: in business. 799 00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:50,000 Speaker 5: Now. 800 00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:54,600 Speaker 16: It's also scale and get to substantial level. You know, 801 00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:56,080 Speaker 16: world acquire a lot more than that. 802 00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:58,000 Speaker 4: What about price? 803 00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,000 Speaker 2: Where do you want your product to exist in the 804 00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:02,200 Speaker 2: spectrum mons price? 805 00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:04,799 Speaker 11: We definitely want to exist in the high end. As 806 00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:06,759 Speaker 11: we know, it's been much talked about it. We are 807 00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:09,200 Speaker 11: a K K shaped economy right now. We serve that 808 00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:12,600 Speaker 11: upper K. We want to bring everybody in. But you 809 00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:14,920 Speaker 11: want to be in the premium segment. I think you 810 00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:18,520 Speaker 11: want to focus on gross margin improvement, so you can 811 00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:20,560 Speaker 11: because that's really the oxygen of our business. So when 812 00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:22,840 Speaker 11: we sell at a premium price point, we can we 813 00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:25,399 Speaker 11: can improve our gross margin then reinvest growth to grow 814 00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:29,480 Speaker 11: the brand. Also, interestingly, like within the health and wellness 815 00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,600 Speaker 11: space where we play, we're seeing more and more low 816 00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:35,200 Speaker 11: and middle income households actually trading up to premium brands 817 00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:36,520 Speaker 11: when it comes to health and wellness. 818 00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:40,000 Speaker 2: And there are very specific ways of measuring, even day 819 00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:43,480 Speaker 2: to day how successful a company is, including how it's 820 00:43:43,520 --> 00:43:45,440 Speaker 2: doing in the water competition wars. 821 00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:48,560 Speaker 17: Velocity is how many units of your product you sell 822 00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:52,640 Speaker 17: in each store each week, and I think velocity is 823 00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:55,600 Speaker 17: the truest measure of success. You know, you can't bake blossoity, 824 00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:58,760 Speaker 17: you can't cheat velocity. It's customers coming in and buying 825 00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:00,719 Speaker 17: your product, and then they're coming back again next week 826 00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:03,279 Speaker 17: and buying it again. You know, you can tell the 827 00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:07,000 Speaker 17: health and success of a brand, and you know, it's 828 00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:09,200 Speaker 17: like it's how we gauge new products, it's how we 829 00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:12,680 Speaker 17: gauge new chains. And I think it's very important for 830 00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:17,040 Speaker 17: brands to watch their velocity closely and make sure that 831 00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,080 Speaker 17: you know your velocity is where you want it to be, 832 00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:23,280 Speaker 17: and if it's not, that you're learning why and fixing 833 00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:24,440 Speaker 17: it as quickly as possible. 834 00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:27,440 Speaker 11: Looking at sales, obviously, are we selling in you know, 835 00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,040 Speaker 11: to our to our retail customer, so to Walmart and 836 00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:32,400 Speaker 11: to Costco and to Target and all those folks. We 837 00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:34,239 Speaker 11: get a look at that every day with what those 838 00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:37,040 Speaker 11: with the healthy orders are building up. We also want 839 00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:39,759 Speaker 11: to look at syndicated data. Right now, we only have 840 00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:42,160 Speaker 11: about eight percent of households that buy us during the 841 00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,640 Speaker 11: course of a year, and that's pretty low, but that's 842 00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:46,680 Speaker 11: that's a good thing because that means there's a lot 843 00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:49,200 Speaker 11: more places we can go with this with this brand, 844 00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:50,040 Speaker 11: so we'll. 845 00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:50,160 Speaker 4: Look at that. 846 00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:53,719 Speaker 11: We also look at things like trial, how many people 847 00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:55,839 Speaker 11: are trying our product, and what's the repeat purchase? That's 848 00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:59,479 Speaker 11: another really important one. Everybody will try anything at any 849 00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,400 Speaker 11: given time, but the real measure is how many people 850 00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:04,960 Speaker 11: come back to your product for the second time and 851 00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,160 Speaker 11: the third time. So we also look at that. 852 00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:10,400 Speaker 2: It's a growing segment with an awful lot of competitors, 853 00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:13,799 Speaker 2: but can it be a good investment. Wagle finds that 854 00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:16,960 Speaker 2: the very factor that lowers the barriers to entry may 855 00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:18,480 Speaker 2: be the key to investing. 856 00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:21,880 Speaker 16: One third of what we do at Butterfly is investing 857 00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:24,640 Speaker 16: in consumer brands, and we think we're good at picking 858 00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:27,520 Speaker 16: them and finding winners and making it work. But two 859 00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:30,480 Speaker 16: thirds of what we do is investing in those enablers. 860 00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:33,000 Speaker 16: It allows us to not have to take the brand risk, 861 00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:34,719 Speaker 16: right we can just say, Okay, we're going to bet 862 00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:38,640 Speaker 16: behind hydration and the flavors that go into hydration, and 863 00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:40,880 Speaker 16: so let's go find a flavor company that powers all 864 00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,560 Speaker 16: these different hydration brands and we don't have to sit 865 00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:46,000 Speaker 16: here and determine which hydration brand is going to win. 866 00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:49,520 Speaker 16: So if we can go against the packaging companies that 867 00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:53,560 Speaker 16: supply those hydration businesses, I think it's a great idea. Flavoring, again, 868 00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:57,960 Speaker 16: is a big flavors essence. Ingredients in general are another 869 00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,239 Speaker 16: area where we play and find amazing companies that are 870 00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:04,360 Speaker 16: supplying those different sort of vendors. And then, finally, a 871 00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:06,560 Speaker 16: huge ecosystem that we spend a lot of time on 872 00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:10,839 Speaker 16: is co manufacturing. So a lot of manufacturing has been 873 00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:13,640 Speaker 16: outsourced to these companies that are very professional at doing 874 00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,520 Speaker 16: it and can do it for big brands, small brands. Finally, 875 00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:20,680 Speaker 16: I'd say there's also the distribution and logistics of moving 876 00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:25,040 Speaker 16: these beverages around, which are really interesting players, both national 877 00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:29,320 Speaker 16: distributors but also regional distributors that might specialize in certain channels. 878 00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:33,359 Speaker 2: Those so called enablers may be good investments, but those 879 00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:35,680 Speaker 2: at the center of the business believe there's no real 880 00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:37,680 Speaker 2: substitute for doing it yourself. 881 00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:41,239 Speaker 11: I've always talked about how you want to start with 882 00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:43,600 Speaker 11: this product truth. What's the truth about your product that's 883 00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:46,359 Speaker 11: really special for us? It's real squeeze fruit. It's been 884 00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:49,880 Speaker 11: around since twenty ten, and it's really ridden the wave 885 00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:54,120 Speaker 11: of consumers gravitating toward healthier, better for you beverages that 886 00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:57,200 Speaker 11: happen to be refreshing. Haven has a nice flavor profile. 887 00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:02,280 Speaker 2: In most businesses, saturation is a bad thing. Success usually 888 00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:05,760 Speaker 2: comes from scarcity, and when it comes to carbonated water, 889 00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:09,000 Speaker 2: the fact is that many of the brands will likely fail, 890 00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:12,799 Speaker 2: but those devoted to the business believe deeply that in 891 00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:16,239 Speaker 2: the end, despite the odds, there's room even for all 892 00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:19,920 Speaker 2: those versions on your grocery shelf, provided they have the 893 00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:20,800 Speaker 2: right taste. 894 00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:24,280 Speaker 11: The reality is that most things fail. You know, eighty 895 00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:27,719 Speaker 11: percent of new products will fail just because being just 896 00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:32,359 Speaker 11: showing up if the party doesn't make you interesting, irrelevant necessarily. 897 00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:36,240 Speaker 17: Taste always comes first, because if a product doesn't taste delicious, 898 00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:39,759 Speaker 17: it doesn't matter how meaningful your mission is or how 899 00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:42,719 Speaker 17: important all of the backstory of your brand. If people 900 00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:44,279 Speaker 17: don't love the way they taste, they're not going to 901 00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,120 Speaker 17: come back again and again to buy it. 902 00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:49,439 Speaker 2: That does it for us Here at Wall Street Week, 903 00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:52,360 Speaker 2: I'm David Weston. See you next week for more stories 904 00:47:52,360 --> 00:48:00,200 Speaker 2: of capitalism 905 00:48:02,320 --> 00:48:02,360 Speaker 5: S