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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg to Washington, d C,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Blueberg, Well Under, to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine,

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Speaker 1: to the country, Damn General one, and around the globe

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Speaker 1: the Bluemberg Radio plucks Apen Bloomberg Dot gone. This is

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Speaker 1: taking stock. Coming up on taking stock, We're going to

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Speaker 1: take stock of currencies and the US dollar with rates

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Speaker 1: as low, well the ten year US Treasury at one

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Speaker 1: point five five would a rate increase even if twenty

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Speaker 1: five basis points? Would that change the value of the

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Speaker 1: US dollar versus our major trading partners. Will find out

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Speaker 1: more coming up, but right now, let's find out about

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Speaker 1: news from Charlie Pellett in the Bloomberg news room. All right,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. Pim Fox stocks extending their decline

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Speaker 1: led by drugmakers. The SMP five hundred indexes down four

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Speaker 1: tenths of one percent. Investors are also waiting Friday speech

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Speaker 1: from fed share Janet Yellen. They'll be listening for clues

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Speaker 1: on when to expect higher borrowing costs. And Brett Bryan

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Speaker 1: is U S economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. He was

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Speaker 1: interviewed about a fed share Janet Yellen this morning and

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Speaker 1: the interest rate outlook on Bloomberg Television. We're seeing a

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Speaker 1: very coordinated effort amongst the Fed speakers to buy that

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Speaker 1: optionality for September for the for the Committee. So the

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Speaker 1: Fed would love to just you know, whether they're learning

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Speaker 1: a hurry or not, they want to have that September

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Speaker 1: option available. Well, not even the US Congressional Budget Office

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Speaker 1: is buying the federal reserves projected path for interest rates

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Speaker 1: in coming years, starting with some Central bankers insistence that

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Speaker 1: a hike next month is possible. In the latest update

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Speaker 1: of its Budget and Economic Outlook, the CBO says that

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Speaker 1: expects the Central Bank to hold its target for the

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Speaker 1: federal funds rate at point to five to point five

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Speaker 1: percent until the fourth quarter of this year before raising it.

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Speaker 1: The tenure down one thirty second, with the yield of

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Speaker 1: one point five five percent, Gold tumbling eighteen forty the

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Speaker 1: ounce three that's the drop right now of one point

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Speaker 1: four percent. Crude oil West Texas Intermediate down two point

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Speaker 1: eight percent, tumbling dollar thirty six to forty six dollars

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Speaker 1: and seventy three cents. New numbers from the National Association

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Speaker 1: of Realtors show Sales of previously owned homes dropped more

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Speaker 1: than forecast in July from a nine year high, restrained

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Speaker 1: by limited choices for buyers. SMP five hundred index down

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Speaker 1: eight to seventy eight, a drop of four tenths of

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Speaker 1: one percent. The down down three tenths of one percent,

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Speaker 1: lower by fifty two points to thirty two on Wall Street. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's take a look at some of the other stories

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Speaker 1: making news. Thank you Charlie from the Bloomberg newsroom. I'm

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Speaker 1: Jill Schneider. This news update is brought to you by Audie.

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Speaker 1: Like a force of nature, the Summer of Out event

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Speaker 1: has arrived. Visit your try State Audie Dealer during the

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Speaker 1: Summer of Audie Event and get up to a five

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Speaker 1: thousand dollar bonus on select out vehicles. Rescue crews continue

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Speaker 1: to dig through the rubble in central Italy looking for

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Speaker 1: survivors after an earthquake that struck when many people were sleeping.

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Speaker 1: At least one twenty people have been confirmed dead. Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: Alessandra Nigliatio is in the small town of Amateurs. They

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Speaker 1: are definitely after shops. Not as strong as the first,

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Speaker 1: but the unnerving when you're in a Hailltown with the

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Speaker 1: ground full of crack. Italian officials say they have set

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Speaker 1: up tense cities to care for the thousands left homeless

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Speaker 1: by the quake. Vice President Joe Biden is in Turkey

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Speaker 1: trying to patch up shaky relations with a Key NATO ally.

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Speaker 1: Biden condemned last month's failed coup after meeting with Turkish

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Speaker 1: President Urdwan. The people of the United States of America

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Speaker 1: a poor what happened and under no circumstances with support

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Speaker 1: and a remotely approaching the cowardly act of the treasonous

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Speaker 1: members of your military. Turkey has demanded that the US

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Speaker 1: extradite Fatula guland the Islamic cleric it blames for the

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Speaker 1: coup attempt. This week marks the two anniversary of the

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Speaker 1: Battle of Brooklyn, when fierce fighting between the British and

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Speaker 1: Continental armies broke out, engulfing an area that encompassed what

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Speaker 1: is today Park Slope, Prospect Heights, and a section along

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Speaker 1: the Gojanas Canal. About three thousand Americans died. Global News

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, powered by more than journalists

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Speaker 1: and analysts in more than one twenty countries. I'm Jill

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Speaker 1: Schneider and this is Bloomberg, Charlie, and we thank you,

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Speaker 1: and again recapping stocks LA R S and P five

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Speaker 1: hundred index dropping eight points now to one, a drop

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Speaker 1: there of four tenths of one percent. I'm Charlie Tallaton.

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Speaker 1: That's sub Bloomberg Business Flash. This is taking stock the

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Speaker 1: FED in focus on Bloomberg Radio. And here to focus

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Speaker 1: on the FED with us is Stephen Casey for an

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Speaker 1: exchange trader and senior market analyst at Cambridge Global Payments.

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Speaker 1: Joining us the New York studio. Stephen, we have you know,

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Speaker 1: um yell in coming up, we have Jackson Hole for

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Speaker 1: our currencies perspective. What is number one on your mind

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Speaker 1: going into the next couple of weeks here, Um, from

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Speaker 1: a currency perspective, probably a little clarity. I think the

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Speaker 1: Fed has given the dollar a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: crisis of confidence over the last few weeks, especially over

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Speaker 1: the last seven days. When the FED minutes were released

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Speaker 1: a week ago, UM, the dollar I personally didn't think

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Speaker 1: it should deserve the slide that it received, but it

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Speaker 1: was sold across the board. It's been very weak over

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Speaker 1: the last week, and we've had a little bit of

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Speaker 1: profit taking recently. But UM, I think we need to

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Speaker 1: see some clarity from the Fed, some um, some consistency

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Speaker 1: with what with what, what's going to be coming up next?

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Speaker 1: Do you think we will see that clarity? I think

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Speaker 1: the the driving factor here UM that we talked about

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Speaker 1: a little bit earlier with Joe Wisenthal of of Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Markets is debate seems to be UM the overlying status

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Speaker 1: quo for what's going on with the Fed, and a

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Speaker 1: lack of decisiveness. Do you think we'll see I'm optimistic

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Speaker 1: we'll see that. I think UM. The comments over the

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Speaker 1: weekend from by Chairman Stanley Fisher were a good indicator

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Speaker 1: of what we might see from Chairman Yellen on Friday.

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Speaker 1: I think she's gonna do her best to keep September live.

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Speaker 1: I personally don't think there's any chance they're gonna hike

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Speaker 1: before the election. I think it's a fifty fifty shot.

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Speaker 1: At the December meeting. I think she's gonna want to

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Speaker 1: be a little bit more optimistic, and I think she's

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Speaker 1: gonna try to write the ship for the dollar. It's

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Speaker 1: sold off quite a bit over the last six weeks

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Speaker 1: or so, so it's got some room to recover. UM

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Speaker 1: and I'm optimistic that her comments will kind of kick

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Speaker 1: it off. Stephen Casey, is it possible we could go

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Speaker 1: through some of the currency pairs. For example, the dollar

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Speaker 1: euro right now trading at one twelve sixties six. Do

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Speaker 1: you expect the euro to strengthen or weaken against the dollar?

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Speaker 1: I expect the euro to the euro rate to kind

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Speaker 1: of tumble over UM. It's fallen off about a little

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Speaker 1: less than one percent over the last twenty four hours.

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Speaker 1: I think if we do see some optimism from Janet Yellen,

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Speaker 1: I think it could continue to gravitate back towards that

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Speaker 1: one ten area. I think the fundamental picture as we

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Speaker 1: get deeper into Q three points for a euro a

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Speaker 1: lower year at all the rate UM. And I think

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Speaker 1: if we do see some of those similar comments from

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Speaker 1: Yelling that we saw from Fisher, that should really get

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Speaker 1: the engine going. All right. How about the pounds sterling

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Speaker 1: at one four? I think it's a similar story. The

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Speaker 1: pound is kind of twisting in the wind right now.

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Speaker 1: Whenever you see a twelve cent drop in just over

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Speaker 1: one day, it's kind of in no man's lands, and

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Speaker 1: it's been kind of hanging around there for the last month.

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Speaker 1: UM Fundamentally, I still favor UM Sterling dropping back below

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Speaker 1: that one thirty area. I think, UM, as we see

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Speaker 1: a little bit more optimism from the Fed, a little

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Speaker 1: bit more confidence with what they want to do towards

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Speaker 1: the end of the year, that should favor Sterling tipping

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Speaker 1: below one and the Canadian dollar one right now. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's been kind of a pain as well. UM, it's

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Speaker 1: been been a kind of a rocky summer. Well, it's tough, right.

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Speaker 1: I took my vacation in June. I wish I pushed

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Speaker 1: it off to August. It's been so quiet. Equities, folks,

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Speaker 1: we are each crew right. Well, Unfortunately, I'm gonna take

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Speaker 1: the same stance with dollar Cat. I know we've been

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Speaker 1: trading just below that one thirty area UM for the

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Speaker 1: last few weeks. But I think fundamentally, UM, if you

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Speaker 1: want to look at Canada, UM, I think dollar cats

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Speaker 1: should favor back towards that one thirty five range as

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Speaker 1: we move into UH September October, it's twofold. One. I

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Speaker 1: think we're going to see a little bit more optimism

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Speaker 1: from the Fed, and two, I think we're kind of

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Speaker 1: seeing the the the new progressive policies, UM. Up in

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Speaker 1: Canada taking fold. Just last month they were reported one

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Speaker 1: of their largest deficits um ever, so I think that's

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Speaker 1: going to continue to filter into the market. Yeah, the

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Speaker 1: government of Justin Trudeau, he's gonna be spending money stimulate

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Speaker 1: the economy. Japanese yen at one hundred dot four four,

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Speaker 1: So one hundred. Where is that a key level? One hundred?

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Speaker 1: I mean number, it's a pretty number. Well, if you

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Speaker 1: think the Fed's got issues, take a look at the

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Speaker 1: bank in Japan because it's absolutely a month lungingmatch right

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Speaker 1: now between them and the government. UM. I think they're

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Speaker 1: going to be meeting the third week of September there

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Speaker 1: right now kind of doing a report or an assessment

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Speaker 1: um as to what they've seen from a UH policy

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Speaker 1: standpoint over the last few months. So we'll get more

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Speaker 1: clarity mid in mid September. UM. I don't think we're

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Speaker 1: gonna stray too far from from this one, Mark. I

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Speaker 1: think we could again bounce a little bit if we

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Speaker 1: UM we get what I think is going to happen

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Speaker 1: on Friday with Jackson Hall and just tell us about

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Speaker 1: d x Y. This is the index that is used

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Speaker 1: to track the value of the US dollar versus major

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Speaker 1: trading partners. How does that actually get put together? And

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Speaker 1: what is it telling you? Well, it's a reading of

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Speaker 1: the sixteen most traded currencies versus the US dollar. UM

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Speaker 1: in our in our space. Whether or not it's going

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Speaker 1: to be too impactful kind of ebbs and flows At

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Speaker 1: the moment um, I think it's been kind of leading

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Speaker 1: the charge. But um, it's not something that I try

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Speaker 1: to keep track of. When we're approaching events such as this.

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Speaker 1: It's best to keep an eye on the fundamentals rather

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Speaker 1: than technicals. Fundamentals rather than technicals are right, good? Then

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Speaker 1: I don't have to learn too much about d x Y,

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Speaker 1: although we do track that of course. Um, what about

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Speaker 1: emerging market uh currencies? I keep thinking about the Brazilian

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Speaker 1: real for example. The stock market there is up with

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Speaker 1: thirty percent year to date. Yeah, I mean it's always

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Speaker 1: been one of the few areas, especially in these markets,

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Speaker 1: where you could chase yield. Unfortunately, there have some piccadillo.

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Speaker 1: So if you do rush into those emerging markets currencies,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have to worry about, um, some things kind

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Speaker 1: of flying up out of out of nowhere. So um,

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Speaker 1: you know in these markets where you've got, you know,

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Speaker 1: zero interest rate or negative industrates. With Japan in the

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Speaker 1: US and UM in Europe and Canada, you could see

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Speaker 1: investors flushing into those im markets, but it's always a

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Speaker 1: dicey fly. Stephen Casey, thank you for joining us and

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Speaker 1: giving us the rundown on those currency markets. Foreign exchange

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Speaker 1: trader and senior market analyst at Cambridge Global Payments joining

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Speaker 1: us here UM at Bloomberg Radio. I'm Alex Brenka and

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Speaker 1: for Kathleene Hayes, and this is him. Yes, this is

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Speaker 1: taking Stock and this is Bloomberg. The FED in Focus

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