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Speaker 2: Labor Day weekend is now upon us. I'm Kaylee Lions.
Speaker 2: And of course here in Balance of Power, where we
Speaker 2: follow politics, we do know that historically it's after Labor
Speaker 2: Day that we consider summer over, and in then election
Speaker 2: cycle the sprint toward election day is on. But of
Speaker 2: course this cycle has been unlike cycles in the past.
Speaker 2: I think we all know that. Of course, it began
Speaker 2: as the longest general election campaign in history when both
Speaker 2: Donald Trump and Joe Biden had their party's nominations locked
Speaker 2: up after Super Tuesday, and then it got flipped upside
Speaker 2: down entirely when now almost six weeks ago, Joe Biden
Speaker 2: left the race and Kamala Harris took the helm as
Speaker 2: the Democratic nominee. And to just underscore how quickly and
Speaker 2: how significantly this game has changed since, look to Bloomberg's
Speaker 2: new polling with Morning Consolt. Of course, looking at the
Speaker 2: key seven battleground states, in which we find she is
Speaker 2: up two points on Donald Trump across them, leading him
Speaker 2: in six of the seven. The seventh Arizona, they are
Speaker 2: in a dead heat, literally tied. So for more details
Speaker 2: on this pole, Bloomberg's Gregory Cordy joins me. He spent
Speaker 2: all of yesterday pouring through the numbers, and of course
Speaker 2: it is the headlines that stand out here, Gregor, we
Speaker 2: were looking at four point leads in Nevada and Pennsylvania,
Speaker 2: which is a mushrooms must win state, and even eight
Speaker 2: points up in Wisconsin.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a pretty good poll for Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3: It builds on what we saw last month when she
Speaker 3: first entered the race. She's spill on that a little
Speaker 3: bit one percentage point overall across the seven states, which
Speaker 3: isn't anything to put too much of an emphasis on.
Speaker 3: That's within the margin of error. But as you point out,
Speaker 3: her worst state is the state that she's tied with
Speaker 3: Donald Trump, and that's Arizona. And then you go all
Speaker 3: the way up through a number of states that are
Speaker 3: within the margin of era to Wisconsin, which has always
Speaker 3: been a good Democratic state. Now it's a solid Democratic
Speaker 3: state at least as some map looks now and as
Speaker 3: you point out Pennsylvania, all eyes on that keystone state,
Speaker 3: which is the keystone to this election. It is what
Speaker 3: we call the tipping point state. It's hard to imagine
Speaker 3: either candidate getting to two hundred and seventy electoral votes
Speaker 3: without winning Pennsylvania, and as of now, Kamala Harris seems
Speaker 3: to have the edge there well.
Speaker 2: And it's not just having the edge in the overall
Speaker 2: question around who these voters would cast a vote for
Speaker 2: with president, but also they're thinking on the issues and
Speaker 2: what issues they trust each of these candidates with, because
Speaker 2: we're seeing some pretty mark change from what Joe Biden
Speaker 2: frankly had distrust in that Kamala Sarris seems to have
Speaker 2: more trust in when it comes to the economy.
Speaker 3: That's the most remarkable thing about this poll. We've been
Speaker 3: doing this tracking poll for a eleven months now, starting
Speaker 3: last October. We'll do two more in September and this October.
Speaker 3: But what we saw here is a pretty market break
Speaker 3: from how voters perceived Joe Biden when he was still
Speaker 3: in the race and how they're perceiving his vice president
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris On issue after issue, especially on the economy,
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris is outperforming where Joe Biden was just two
Speaker 3: months ago. Voters trust her more on issues like housing costs,
Speaker 3: on pay raises, unemployment, personal debt like student loans and
Speaker 3: credit cards, interest rates, on a lot of those things
Speaker 3: I just mentioned, she's actually polling higher than Donald Trump,
Speaker 3: and she's narrowing the gap on that all important who
Speaker 3: do you trust on the inflation question, which voters have
Speaker 3: told us time and time again is the single most
Speaker 3: important economic issue, and we're seeing it not just in
Speaker 3: the economic issues, but in issues like Gaza. We've been
Speaker 3: talking about how and the Vice President addressed this in
Speaker 3: her interview last night, whether or not she would make
Speaker 3: a change in US policy and Gaza. Certainly voter swing
Speaker 3: state voters and especially Democrats are giving her the benefit
Speaker 3: of the doubt on that issue. So she's really swipe
Speaker 3: the slate clean. And I like how you put it.
Speaker 3: Before we went from the longest presidential election in history
Speaker 3: to really what's become the shortest. This is a brand
Speaker 3: new race, and really I think we should just maybe
Speaker 3: just agreed to let's all forget about Joe Biden. He's
Speaker 3: still the president of United States. He still asked to governor, right,
Speaker 3: But from this point forward, it's really Harris versus Trump,
Speaker 3: and anything any baggage that Joe Biden brought to this
Speaker 3: race is pretty much gone in the minds of most
Speaker 3: swing state voters.
Speaker 2: Well, that does seem like it may create a strategic
Speaker 2: problem for Donald Trump, who had spent months going after
Speaker 2: Joe Biden, specifically in the Biden administration's policies. Is there
Speaker 2: any good news for the Republican nominee in this Paul.
Speaker 3: Gregory, Well, Kanal Harris did not get a post convention bounce.
Speaker 3: That's what we were all looking for. And if we
Speaker 3: had the traditional rhythms, the traditional ups and downs of
Speaker 3: a campaign cycle, you would have expected Trump to get
Speaker 3: a bounce out of his convention and Harris to get
Speaker 3: a bump out of hers. But remember Trump almost got
Speaker 3: killed going into his convention, wrote a big high, and
Speaker 3: then two days after the convention, Joe Biden drops out
Speaker 3: and permanently changed the race for Kamala Harris. She came
Speaker 3: into the election with a writing a big wave of enthusiasm.
Speaker 3: She's still on a sort of honeymoon. So if you're
Speaker 3: Donald Trump. You're hoping that honeymoon ends. You're hoping that
Speaker 3: interviews like last night's interview with CNN will somehow find
Speaker 3: a way to trip Harris up. I didn't hear that
Speaker 3: happen last night. Certainly, if you're looking for policy detail
Speaker 3: from her, you probably didn't hear it. But she also
Speaker 3: probably didn't do herself a whole lot of damage. So
Speaker 3: now all eyes are on that September tenth debate an
Speaker 3: ABC in Philadelphia, and that's where Trump is going to
Speaker 3: try to change the dynamic of this race back again
Speaker 3: to try to seize the advantage. It's still this race
Speaker 3: is still on a razor's edge. It's anyone's to win.
Speaker 3: But at least according to our polling and some other
Speaker 3: public polling, you'd probably rather be in Vice President Kamala
Speaker 3: Harris's shoes than in Donald Trump's.
Speaker 2: I wonder if she's still going to be trying to
Speaker 2: paint herself as the underdog now with data life, it
Speaker 2: can be harder. Yeah, all right, bloombergs Gregory Cordy, thank
Speaker 2: you so much. Appreciate it, And of course, Gregory leading
Speaker 2: us right to our next topic of conversation, which is
Speaker 2: that interview that took place on CNN last night. It
Speaker 2: was not just Kamala Harris. Tim Wolls was also with her,
Speaker 2: But of course a lot of the questioning from Dana
Speaker 2: Bash of CNN was directed towards the vice president and
Speaker 2: presidential nominee. Here's a sampling of how it went.
Speaker 4: My agenda includes what we need to do to bring
Speaker 4: down the price of groceries, for example, dealing with an
Speaker 4: issue like price gouging. What we need to do to
Speaker 4: extend the child tax credit to help young families be
Speaker 4: able to take care of their children in their most
Speaker 4: formative years. What we need to do to bring down
Speaker 4: the cost of housing. And I made that clear on
Speaker 4: the debate station in twenty twenty that I would not banfracking.
Speaker 4: As vice president, I did not banfracking. As president, I
Speaker 4: will not banfracking. There should be consequence. We have laws
Speaker 4: that have to be followed and enforced that address and
Speaker 4: deal with people who cross our border illegally. And I
Speaker 4: think it would be to the benefit of the American
Speaker 4: public to have a member of my cabinet who is
Speaker 4: a Republican. We have to get a deal done. This
Speaker 4: war must end INtime, and we must get a deal
Speaker 4: that is about getting the hostages out. I've met with
Speaker 4: the families of the American hostages. Let's get the hostages out.
Speaker 4: Let's get the ceasefire done.
Speaker 2: The question is, did Kamala Harris change any minds for
Speaker 2: better or worse with that interview last night? So for
Speaker 2: an answer to you that, let's turn out to Jane Hall.
Speaker 2: She is American University Associate professor of Journalism and Media
Speaker 2: Studies and author of Politics and the Media, Intersections and
Speaker 2: New Directions. Jane, welcome back to Bloomberg. You are a professor.
Speaker 2: What greed would you give Kamala Harris when it comes
Speaker 2: to her interview performance?
Speaker 5: You know, I would give her an as I think
Speaker 5: that she did well. I think that clearly her messaging
Speaker 5: on the points that she made about the economy, although
Speaker 5: she didn't start out that way. Danna asked her a
Speaker 5: question about what would you do day one, which is
Speaker 5: kind of a kind of a gotcha question. She came
Speaker 5: back to it and talked about what you had the
Speaker 5: SoundBite from, and I think that messaging of I will
Speaker 5: be there for you, I will help you, I will
Speaker 5: restore the middle class, and these are some specifics she's
Speaker 5: been hammered over not having enough specifics. She has specifics,
Speaker 5: and I think she legislated that very well. And I
Speaker 5: do think also it was very interesting, you know, I'm
Speaker 5: a student of women and gender issues and politics and media.
Speaker 5: It was very interesting the way she handled herself, the table,
Speaker 5: she was at, the fact that Tim wallsh was with her.
Speaker 5: I noticed Trump said he didn't think she looked like
Speaker 5: a leader. I think it's because he would have had
Speaker 5: a crown, you know, he would have had something else.
Speaker 5: He would have asked for more trappings. And I think
Speaker 5: that's an interesting choice that she was with him and
Speaker 5: yet she was in charge. She clearly trying to say
Speaker 5: it's okay, guys, you know, this is how this can work.
Speaker 6: Well.
Speaker 2: But to the point about this being a joint interview.
Speaker 2: Them together at the table, they weren't, you know, sitting
Speaker 2: in typically the soft seating you would kind of see
Speaker 2: in interviews like this, they had. She had her arms
Speaker 2: up on the table at many points in the interview,
Speaker 2: while Tim Walls sat for the most part quietly beside her.
Speaker 2: He of course didn't feeld as many questions. Do you
Speaker 2: think his presence there really served a purpose or was
Speaker 2: it actually detrimental to what Harris may have wanted to accomplish.
Speaker 5: You know, I think it worked. I think if he
Speaker 5: had had too many questions, people would have said, why
Speaker 5: did she need quote unquote to bring him. This is
Speaker 5: not the first joint interview that has been done. The
Speaker 5: critics of this have said that this was her first
Speaker 5: big interview, so why did she bring him? But I
Speaker 5: think they are counting on the visual framing and the
Speaker 5: visual messaging that here is a guy who is sitting
Speaker 5: there and he was deferential to her, and yet when
Speaker 5: he was asked, you know, when he was pressed on
Speaker 5: some things, he spoke up. I think it worked. It's interesting,
Speaker 5: you know, it was a table in a cafe. I'm
Speaker 5: not sure if I'd been her campaign not to make
Speaker 5: too much of this, if I had me, if I
Speaker 5: would have allowed it to be that casual looking. I
Speaker 5: do think this symbolism does matter, but I think it
Speaker 5: was good to have him there.
Speaker 7: Well.
Speaker 2: And it wasn't just a cafe. It was a black
Speaker 2: owned cafe in Georgia, specifically Jane and on the subject
Speaker 2: of color. Of course, this is something that Kamala Harris
Speaker 2: hasn't been super forward with in her candidacy. She hasn't
Speaker 2: really leaned on the historic nature of being a woman
Speaker 2: of color who is leading a major party's presidential ticket.
Speaker 2: And she also didn't really play ball when she was
Speaker 2: questioned about the way Donald Trump has characterized her racial identity.
Speaker 2: Let's just remind ourselves of that very brief Q and
Speaker 2: A last night.
Speaker 8: He suggested that you happened to turn black recently for
Speaker 8: political purposes, questioning a core part of your identity.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 4: An, he's same, old tired playbook. Next question, please, that's it.
Speaker 2: Did not engage with it hardly at all, Jane, what
Speaker 2: do you make of that strategy?
Speaker 5: You know, I have to say that it's clearly a strategy,
Speaker 5: and it is apparently clearly the way she feels, in
Speaker 5: the way she's comported herself her whole life. I think, frankly,
Speaker 5: it's somewhat risky to not engage at all. I think
Speaker 5: the hope is, and what I'll be interested to see
Speaker 5: is what does he do on that debate stage. I mean,
Speaker 5: you have a split screen in what he has been
Speaker 5: saying about her in rallies and and what he has
Speaker 5: been posting. And I would imagine the hope is that
Speaker 5: women will be so turned off, and Republican women, democratic
Speaker 5: women are so turned off by his stances on reproductive rights,
Speaker 5: but also the way he has been trashing her, the
Speaker 5: way that jd. Vance has said she can go to
Speaker 5: help over commentary she didn't even do over the cemetery incident.
Speaker 5: I think it's a strategy, probably the way she has
Speaker 5: conducted herself. I don't know if you should say I'm
Speaker 5: never going to talk about it. Women and women of
Speaker 5: color have to prove their accomplishments, and that is something
Speaker 5: that she knows and they I think that's what they're
Speaker 5: leaning on, and they're hoping that he will do the
Speaker 5: dirty work for her, frankly, be so racist in his
Speaker 5: commentary and that that will be publicized and that's all
Speaker 5: she has to do. I frankly would have liked to
Speaker 5: have seen some sort of a sense of what does
Speaker 5: it feel like to be the first She was asked
Speaker 5: about it with that wonderful photograph of her great niece,
Speaker 5: and in my view, she hesitated a little as to
Speaker 5: whether she was going to talk about it, you know,
Speaker 5: the little girl in pigtails looking up. She said she
Speaker 5: was very moved. But again, I think she has just
Speaker 5: decided and they've decided we're not going there. I'm not
Speaker 5: sure that's going to work in the debate, And we'll
Speaker 5: see what happens in the debate and in terms of
Speaker 5: what is quoted back to him and what does she
Speaker 5: need to respond to.
Speaker 2: Well, Gene, might that also depend on whether or not
Speaker 2: the mics stay hot the whole time or muted like
Speaker 2: we saw in June between Trump and Biden. ABC's debate
Speaker 2: rules say the mics will be muted. We don't know
Speaker 2: yet that the Harris campaign has agreed to that they
Speaker 2: want them hot.
Speaker 5: Well, you know, I think I was on with you
Speaker 5: all before the debate, and I think I was out
Speaker 5: there saying I think that the mike's being muted would
Speaker 5: allow him to uh and also no audience would allow
Speaker 5: him to stay presidential for you know, and play by
Speaker 5: the rules literally for the time that was needed. This
Speaker 5: was for the Biden debate, of course, you know, I
Speaker 5: think it serves them for him to lose it in
Speaker 5: a sense, you know, to not stay on policy. Certainly,
Speaker 5: she's gonna question him about how are you now talking
Speaker 5: about how you're gonna have free IVF treatments when what
Speaker 5: you've done is overturn Roe v Wade. I mean, she
Speaker 5: can go after him on policy, but I think I
Speaker 5: think it doesn't help her as much as it would
Speaker 5: help him to have the MIC's muted.
Speaker 2: Well, I guess we'll see if agreement is reached on that. Finally, Jane,
Speaker 2: we have less than a minute left. But how are
Speaker 2: you thinking about the earned media race?
Speaker 9: Here?
Speaker 2: The idea that Donald Trump really dominated that in election cycles.
Speaker 2: We've seen him comped in in the past, but this
Speaker 2: kind of feels different, doesn't it.
Speaker 5: Oh, you know, I think that's such a good point.
Speaker 5: I meant, he didn't have to spend nearly as much
Speaker 5: because he got incredible free media. She is getting the
Speaker 5: free media. She that convention was absolutely perfected, perfected to
Speaker 5: reframe choice and reframe freedom and seize back patriotism. I mean,
Speaker 5: those are the kind of ads they're doing.
Speaker 8: She's she's she.
Speaker 5: Is handling this very well in terms of media. You
Speaker 5: know the other thing that I think is interesting in
Speaker 5: terms of media, she could go do local interviews. I
Speaker 5: would imagine they are going to do local interviews. I
Speaker 5: thought Dana did a fine job, but I think I
Speaker 5: think she's continuing to get a honeymoon in the media too.
Speaker 9: Well.
Speaker 2: Of course, we're hoping she'll come talk to us, as
Speaker 2: we're hoping Donald Trump will hear on Bloomberg. Thanks for
Speaker 2: joining us, Jane Hall of American University, Appreciate your time.
Speaker 2: We'll be right back.
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Speaker 2: Happy Friday to everyone, as we marked the last Friday
Speaker 2: of what I guess we unofficially call summer. It's hard
Speaker 2: to believe that Labor Day is already upon us, especially
Speaker 2: considering the summer we have had in American politics. It's
Speaker 2: been probably unlike any summer in modern American political history.
Speaker 2: For remember back to Memorial Day, this was still a
Speaker 2: race the longest general election cycle we'd seen in modern history,
Speaker 2: between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. By June twenty seventh,
Speaker 2: that fateful CNN debate between the two where calls started
Speaker 2: to begin for Joe Biden to drop out of the race,
Speaker 2: and then, of course, on the eve of the Republican
Speaker 2: Convention on July thirteenth, Donald Trump was shot in an
Speaker 2: attempted assassination attempt. Two days later, he announced Jade Vance
Speaker 2: as his running mate at the RNC, and just days
Speaker 2: after that ended, on July twenty first, Joe Biden did it.
Speaker 2: He left the race and endorsed Kamala Harris, who within
Speaker 2: days had essentially locked up the Democratic nomination. She of
Speaker 2: course trapped up the convention in Chicago last week with
Speaker 2: Tim Walls, her running mate, at her side, and in
Speaker 2: the six weeks and she became the candidate. We have
Speaker 2: seen a big change in this race, not only in
Speaker 2: terms of the fundraising game. She's crossed the half a
Speaker 2: billion dollar threshold as of last week, but she's made
Speaker 2: traumatic changes in polling as well, doing far better than
Speaker 2: Joe Biden was at the point he left the race,
Speaker 2: and gaining gown ground against Donald Trump in some of
Speaker 2: the key battleground states. That's what our latest pulling indicates. Bloomberg,
Speaker 2: together with Morning Console, taking a look at those seven
Speaker 2: swing states and finding Harris ahead of Trump by two
Speaker 2: points on average across them. So for more on that,
Speaker 2: let's turn to Elioakley Morning consoles US politics analyst who
Speaker 2: joins us every poll period. We've of course had eleven
Speaker 2: of these at this point, Eli, so we're getting used
Speaker 2: to talking to you. Thank you for being here on
Speaker 2: this Friday. Of course, we're within the margin of error
Speaker 2: in a number of these states. Not so in Wisconsin though,
Speaker 2: where she's up eight points. But broadly this paints a
Speaker 2: picture of a wider map for Harris.
Speaker 10: Yeah, are much better for Kamala Harris than they were
Speaker 10: for Joe Biden. That sounds almost obvious to say, but
Speaker 10: your explanation of what happened this summer is right. I mean,
Speaker 10: it was a dramatic shift in the American political landscape,
Speaker 10: and voters noticed Kamala Harris is on better footing than
Speaker 10: Joe Biden ever was across every single one of these states.
Speaker 10: That's the good news for Democrats. The challenge for them,
Speaker 10: the advantage or the possibility for Trump maybe is the
Speaker 10: fact that a lot of these states are really really close.
Speaker 10: I mean, Arizona's tied, George is basically tied, Michigan's close,
Speaker 10: North Carolina and Nevada are pretty close. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Kamala
Speaker 10: Harris looks to be in an okay position, but those
Speaker 10: are also tight races. This contest isn't over. Maybe it
Speaker 10: was over before Joe Biden left the race, but that's
Speaker 10: what's changed in the last few weeks.
Speaker 2: This is a real race, yeah, which indicates that it's
Speaker 2: going to be a rough and tumble for the next
Speaker 2: sixty something Daisy Lie leading up to election day. When
Speaker 2: we consider though, the idea that even though these are
Speaker 2: still incredibly tight margin, she is out pulling where Joe
Speaker 2: Biden was. What do we attribute that to? Is this
Speaker 2: Democratic voters who are more likely to turn out for
Speaker 2: a different candidate. Is this independence who seem to have
Speaker 2: been swayed from being potentially a double hater to at
Speaker 2: least tolerating her. Is this other demographics like black voters, Latinos.
Speaker 2: What does the breakdown of the data show us.
Speaker 10: It's all the above. I mean, look, Joe Biden's problem
Speaker 10: in when he was in the contest was he was
Speaker 10: not performing as well with his own twenty twenty voters
Speaker 10: as Donald Trump was. Kamala Harris has reversed that. We're
Speaker 10: seeing what everybody's calling a vibes shift. Happened in this contest,
Speaker 10: and one of the questions we asked in this survey
Speaker 10: kind of underscores that we asked voters if they were voting.
Speaker 10: We asked Democratic presidential candidate supporters if they were voting
Speaker 10: for the candidate or against Trump. And when we asked
Speaker 10: about Harris this time around, they were fifteen points more
Speaker 10: likely across the swing stave map to ascribe that positive
Speaker 10: motivator to their vote than they were to Biden when
Speaker 10: we ask asked back in April, we were all of
Speaker 10: our Democratic National Convention in Chicago. We saw the energy
Speaker 10: in that room of core activist supporters, but you know,
Speaker 10: we're seeing that across the country. She was down in
Speaker 10: southern Georgia. There were lines in that rural community around
Speaker 10: the Blox trying to go see her. Clearly, something is
Speaker 10: happening there. She's getting so much positive media attention that
Speaker 10: is breaking through to the public. I mean, we've not
Speaker 10: necessarily seen a convention bump, and that's probably because she
Speaker 10: got her bump already when she launched her campaign after
Speaker 10: Joe Biden dropped out.
Speaker 2: Well fair enough, maybe she already peaked, if you will,
Speaker 2: But it does seem that at least that peak has
Speaker 2: turned into a plateau rather than something that has gone
Speaker 2: back down the hill. Eli, I also want to zero
Speaker 2: in on the findings here regarding the economy and specific
Speaker 2: economic issues, including help for the middle class and housing.
Speaker 2: Where it's not just that Harris is doing better than
Speaker 2: Joe Biden was on those issues, she is out pulling
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. What do you make of that? And where
Speaker 2: within the kind of economic indicators is Donald Trump still
Speaker 2: clearly ahead, knowing he has been trying hard to campaign
Speaker 2: on this issue.
Speaker 10: Well, I mean, the biggest thing going for Donald Trump
Speaker 10: is the fact that the voter's perceptions of how the
Speaker 10: economy is performing haven't really changed very much. I mean,
Speaker 10: when Joe Biden was in the race, seventy two percent
Speaker 10: said it was on the wrong track. Now sixty nine
Speaker 10: percent say that the folks who see prices as increasing
Speaker 10: across the swing state map have not improved. That's clearly
Speaker 10: an advantage for Donald Trump. What Kamala Harris has seen,
Speaker 10: she is not totally associated with Joe Biden's being in
Speaker 10: the White House as one might expect. I mean, she
Speaker 10: has seen her trust over Donald Trump in a better
Speaker 10: place than Joe Biden's was when it comes to the economy,
Speaker 10: I think she had Donald Trump's lead on the economy
Speaker 10: and our swing state tracking. It's not just the economy,
Speaker 10: by the way, I mean, we're seeing that about every
Speaker 10: single issue. Voters are much happier about her. They're disassociating
Speaker 10: her with the negativity that she is they associated with
Speaker 10: with Joe Biden. You're right about Kamala Harris on issues
Speaker 10: like housing, that's clearly a good issue for Democrats this year.
Speaker 10: If Donald Trump can focus on the inflation issue, though,
Speaker 10: there is wide appetite among the swing side elector for
Speaker 10: him to talk about that. The problem with his campaign,
Speaker 10: this has been the problem since he's been on the
Speaker 10: political stage. He gets sent to side shows. I mean,
Speaker 10: he spent the week fighting with Arlington National Cemetery this week.
Speaker 10: That's not going to be a winning message for intelectorate
Speaker 10: Hungary for answers about.
Speaker 2: Inflation, well, and maybe we'll get more of those answers
Speaker 2: leading up to the debate or on the debate stage
Speaker 2: on September tenth. Eli. If we consider the kind of
Speaker 2: themes we're likely to hear from these candidates, and frankly,
Speaker 2: we heard Kamala Harris sitting many of these themes, including
Speaker 2: housing in the middle class. Last night in that interview
Speaker 2: on CNN. Something else that she has talked a lot
Speaker 2: about and really dominated the convention in Chicago last week
Speaker 2: is this idea around freedoms, not just reproductive freedom, but
Speaker 2: others as well. And it was striking to see here
Speaker 2: Swing state voters trust her on that issue as well,
Speaker 2: by a five point margin. This is kind of a
Speaker 2: departure of the way that Democrats and Republicans usually can
Speaker 2: lay claim to the freedom issue.
Speaker 10: I know, I spent so much time in the early
Speaker 10: twenty tens of Tea party rallies talking about freedom with
Speaker 10: a bunch of conservatives. I think that Kamala Harris has
Speaker 10: done a lot of work, maybe with Beyonce's help, to
Speaker 10: try to reclaim the mantle of freedom for the Democratic Party.
Speaker 10: I think a lot of that discussion has been centered
Speaker 10: around abortion rights, and that is a big issue for
Speaker 10: a number of swing state voters. It's not the number
Speaker 10: one issue for a lot of people, but it is
Speaker 10: for a number of people those are core kind of
Speaker 10: Democratic voters, and her advantage on that issue is massive.
Speaker 10: She leads Trump by twenty one points on that issue
Speaker 10: that's clearly a good issue for her, and I think
Speaker 10: we've seen a lot of coverage recently of Donald Trump
Speaker 10: realizing it's not a good issue for him. I think
Speaker 10: it's been very clear since the Supreme Court overturns the
Speaker 10: Roe v. Wade a worship rights that Donald Trump has
Speaker 10: been not wanting to engage on that issue as much
Speaker 10: as possible. I think that Democrats. I think that the
Speaker 10: state of Florida is going to make it where he's
Speaker 10: going to have to. And I think that's going to
Speaker 10: be a topic of discussion at the debate where we're
Speaker 10: really going to see some news developed.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Donald Trump not really ready with an answer yet
Speaker 2: as to how exactly he's voting on that six week
Speaker 2: abortion issue in Florida, where of course he will be
Speaker 2: casting his vote. I do want to ask finally, Eli,
Speaker 2: because we've talked a lot about the people leading the ticket,
Speaker 2: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, but they do have running
Speaker 2: mates who have been out there. Tim Walls was with
Speaker 2: her in that interview on CNN last night. This of
Speaker 2: course is a poll done now that we know that
Speaker 2: he is running beside her, how is Walls factoring into
Speaker 2: the calculus for Harris and Jade Vance for Trump for
Speaker 2: that matter.
Speaker 10: Well, Tim Walls is very popular. I think Kamala Harris,
Speaker 10: who's also very popular, more popular than Joe Biden or
Speaker 10: Donald Trum have been since we started tracking this back
Speaker 10: in twenty twenty two. Tim Walls pretty much matches her popularity.
Speaker 10: I think that makes him a very good campaign asset.
Speaker 10: And it's with all sorts of groups. It's with men,
Speaker 10: it's with women, it's Withers or colors with white people.
Speaker 10: Tim Wallas is a good asset. Jady Vance, I don't
Speaker 10: know how much his candidacy probably matters here. I mean,
Speaker 10: Donald Trump steals the show. It is a Trump show
Speaker 10: when they're out and about. The little asides get a
Speaker 10: lot of attention online. Some of his Jady Vance's campaign missteps,
Speaker 10: I don't know that those are going to like rock
Speaker 10: the world here, given that Donald Trump is at the
Speaker 10: top of the ticket. But on the other side of
Speaker 10: the ballot, I mean, Kamala Harris found a good running
Speaker 10: mate who can be an asset on the campaign trail,
Speaker 10: and Governor Tim Walls.
Speaker 2: All right, and we expect we'll hear more from both
Speaker 2: of them, like we did last night. Throughout the course
Speaker 2: of the next sixty some days. Same goes for Donald
Speaker 2: Trump and Jadie Vance. And we'll be hearing, of course,
Speaker 2: more from Elio Oakley. I'm sure we still have two
Speaker 2: polls to go this election cycle will have We're in September,
Speaker 2: in October, Elioakley of Morning Consult, thank you so much
Speaker 2: for joining me, and I'll be joined now by our
Speaker 2: political panel. I want to get some more reaction to
Speaker 2: this data. Genie Shanzo is with me. She's political science
Speaker 2: professor at Iona University and Senior Democracy Fellow at the
Speaker 2: Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Together
Speaker 2: to get today with Lisa Kamussa Miller, former RNC communications
Speaker 2: director and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Lisa, just
Speaker 2: to come to you on that ending note there the
Speaker 2: idea of the role that the vice presidential candidates, the
Speaker 2: running mates are playing here now that we are more
Speaker 2: than a month out from the selection of JD. Vance,
Speaker 2: we're only weeks out at this point from the selection
Speaker 2: of Tim Walls. How do you view whether or not
Speaker 2: they're adding or detracting to the tickets they're representing.
Speaker 8: You know, it's interesting to me for both sides. Really
Speaker 8: Donald Trump and what was just what you all were
Speaker 8: just discussing is absolutely true. Donald Trump is Donald Trump,
Speaker 8: and he is probably bigger than life in all of
Speaker 8: those circumstances.
Speaker 9: So jd.
Speaker 8: Vance, while not really making very much of an impact
Speaker 8: one way where the other not necessarily detracting from him
Speaker 8: because people are really voting for Trump. But on the
Speaker 8: Democrat side, it's actually quite interesting. I think that what's
Speaker 8: interesting to me as we look at this ticket is
Speaker 8: that we're getting to know both of these candidates at
Speaker 8: the very same time. And Tim Walls is very likable
Speaker 8: as it relates to just the way he he approaches
Speaker 8: the audiences and the groups that he's connecting with, the
Speaker 8: people that he's speaking with. He's very authentic. And that
Speaker 8: is the difference between those two number two candidates is
Speaker 8: that JD. Vance, I think, is still trying to figure
Speaker 8: out who he is and Tim Walls very much knows
Speaker 8: who he is and what his brand is, and so
Speaker 8: that's kind of interesting. But more than ever, I mean,
Speaker 8: I think that we're meeting Kamala Harris and Tim Walls
Speaker 8: at the same time, whereas we know who Donald Trump
Speaker 8: is and we really don't really know very much about jd.
Speaker 8: Vance other than sort of what we've read and what
Speaker 8: we see. The two of them together are very different
Speaker 8: but also very similar. And that regardless, people are voting
Speaker 8: for the number one candidate, but the number two on
Speaker 8: the Democrat side, I think is very much helping more
Speaker 8: than JD Vance is helping Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Well, so to this point, Genie, of course, we did
Speaker 2: this poll knowing Tim Walls was running with Kamala Harrison.
Speaker 2: When he was selected, everybody was like, Okay, well he's
Speaker 2: from Minnesota. He has that Midwestern appeal that could work
Speaker 2: in the rest belt. He also had a rural upbringing
Speaker 2: and was a gun owner and things that may be
Speaker 2: able to help resonate in other areas. To what extent
Speaker 2: do you think that is actually showing up in these
Speaker 2: polls across the string states with that eight point margin
Speaker 2: in Wisconsin, for example, and frankly the lead Harris now
Speaker 2: has in Georgia North Carolina, you.
Speaker 6: Know, I think it can be showing up, particularly in
Speaker 6: a place like Wisconsin, his neighboring state. Traditionally, all of
Speaker 6: our research shows that vice president's as much attention as
Speaker 6: we give them on the ballot don't make that much
Speaker 6: of a difference. So I'm not sure it's making that
Speaker 6: much of a difference now. But what I would say is,
Speaker 6: you have to imagine what if Donald Trump hadn't had
Speaker 6: to choose JD. Vance before Harris was at the top
Speaker 6: of the ticket, if he had gone with somebody else,
Speaker 6: you know, JD. Vancy doubled down on the far right
Speaker 6: of the party. If he had gone with saying Nicky
Speaker 6: Haley or even somebody unlike at Tulsa Gabbard or somebody else,
Speaker 6: how different this election might be, particularly in issues involving
Speaker 6: women and women's reproductive health. So, you know, I think
Speaker 6: before Donald Trump had, you know, the misfortune of having
Speaker 6: to make a decision before he knew who he was opposing,
Speaker 6: and I dare say he would have gone in a
Speaker 6: different direction given the issues he's confronting now with Kamala Harris.
Speaker 2: Well on just the idea of the issues and what
Speaker 2: Donald Trump has continually brought up in his attacks against
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris, not the personal ones, but the policy ones,
Speaker 2: issues like the border and of course the economy. We've
Speaker 2: spoken about how this poll does show that Harris is
Speaker 2: pulling better on some economic elements like housing in the
Speaker 2: middle class than Donald Trump is at this point, Lisa,
Speaker 2: If that is true, where are the best messaging areas
Speaker 2: for Donald Trump to hit her on. Is it still
Speaker 2: going to be the economy or does this suggest maybe
Speaker 2: he just needs to double down on the border or
Speaker 2: something else.
Speaker 8: Well, I mean Keilly to the point that I think
Speaker 8: Geni just made. And to add on to what I
Speaker 8: said earlier, this is a base election. Each one of
Speaker 8: them picked a candidate for their number two that very
Speaker 8: much speaks to the base of the various parties, and
Speaker 8: so regardless of whether it's immigration, or it's the economy
Speaker 8: or anything else, each one of those candidates on either
Speaker 8: side of the aisle will have to talk about issues
Speaker 8: that will motivate and excite the base to get out
Speaker 8: and vote. And so yes, I think that immigration is
Speaker 8: one that continues to motivate and get the base out.
Speaker 8: On the Republican side, talking about economic issues for each
Speaker 8: one of them is very, very important. This is absolutely
Speaker 8: going to come down to turnout, and it's going to
Speaker 8: come down to support because there is such a slim,
Speaker 8: slim margin of people that are undecided and haven't figured
Speaker 8: out who they want to support that They're going to
Speaker 8: have to figure out a way to talk about the
Speaker 8: issues as it relates to immigration, the economy, or otherwise
Speaker 8: in a way that appeals not only to who the
Speaker 8: people that are already coming out for them, but that slim,
Speaker 8: slim margin. And that's going to be very difficult for
Speaker 8: either one of them, because until they can figure that,
Speaker 8: whoever figures that out, Kelly is the one who's going
Speaker 8: to win, all right.
Speaker 2: Lisa Camussa Miller and Jeanie Schanzeno my political panel. Today.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 2: We are still assessing the first sit down to interview
Speaker 2: from Vice President Kamala Harrison she became the Democratic nominee
Speaker 2: for president. She of course sat down for a conversation
Speaker 2: on CNN last night alongside her running mate Tim Waltz.
Speaker 2: She was faced with a number of questions surrounding policy,
Speaker 2: from domestic issues like the border and the economy, to
Speaker 2: foreign policy. One specifically, when it comes to Israel and
Speaker 2: the ongoing war in Gaza. This is of course something
Speaker 2: that many progressives have strong feelings about. Kamala Harris does
Speaker 2: seem to be getting more slack from that wing of
Speaker 2: the Democratic Party on this issue than the president she
Speaker 2: has served with for the last three and a half years.
Speaker 2: Joe Biden seen as someone who potentially is more sympathetic
Speaker 2: to the Palestinian cause, but she made it clear in
Speaker 2: the interview last night that she would not support in
Speaker 2: Israel arms in Bargo, which is something some are calling for.
Speaker 2: She talked about the need to continue to stand for
Speaker 2: Israel's defense, but she also pushed a ceasefire deal that
Speaker 2: she would like to see happen between Israel and Hamas.
Speaker 4: We have got to get a deal done. We were
Speaker 4: in Doha. We have to get a deal done. This
Speaker 4: war must end and we must get a deal. That
Speaker 4: is about getting the hostages out. I've met with the
Speaker 4: families of the American hostages. Let's get the hostages out.
Speaker 4: Let's get the ceasefire done.
Speaker 2: So for more on whether that ceasefire could get done
Speaker 2: in the state of play in the Middle East. Brigadier
Speaker 2: General retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt is with me now.
Speaker 2: He of course, was in the US Army, former Assistant
Speaker 2: Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs and former Deputy
Speaker 2: Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs. Welcome back
Speaker 2: to Bloomberg, Sour. Appreciate you joining us. Obviously, the ceasefire
Speaker 2: negotiations have been on going for some time now, and
Speaker 2: despite the US occasionally expressing optimism, it doesn't seem there's
Speaker 2: been much forward movement on what remains the key sticking point,
Speaker 2: which is whether or not it will mean a permanent
Speaker 2: Israel pull out of Gaza in terms of the military
Speaker 2: presence there. Do you really think we're getting any closer
Speaker 2: to the moment where the Israeli government's going to be
Speaker 2: willing to agree to that.
Speaker 7: I really don't think so, because the proposal that's been
Speaker 7: put forth right now from the Israelis is that they
Speaker 7: have a resident force remaining inside of Gaza, one force
Speaker 7: which is guarding a line that blocks North Gaza from
Speaker 7: South gazip Gaza City and Communis would be separated. They're
Speaker 7: also looking at retaining a force along what is known
Speaker 7: as the Philadelphia Corridor, which separates Gossip from Egypt. Because
Speaker 7: of concerns with regards to the tunneling that is being
Speaker 7: done by Hamas. So it's hard to see that either
Speaker 7: side is either willing and candidate at this point able
Speaker 7: to agree to a cease fire that would also include
Speaker 7: the return of the hostages. So I think we're just
Speaker 7: going to see no breakthroughs anytime soon.
Speaker 2: Well, we are going to see, though, it seems, breaks
Speaker 2: in the fighting, at least for short periods of time.
Speaker 2: Over the course of three days beginning on September first,
Speaker 2: the Unta said Israel has agreed to that in order
Speaker 2: to provide polio vaccines to the young population in Gaza.
Speaker 2: Israel has said very clearly this is not the start
Speaker 2: of a wider seaspire. But part of the conversation we'd
Speaker 2: had around the initial seaspire much closer to October seventh,
Speaker 2: that we saw when we were still in the earlier
Speaker 2: days of this conflict, was whether or not it allowed
Speaker 2: Hamas breaks in the fighting allowed Hamas to kind of
Speaker 2: recalibrate and reconstitute themselves. Do you think there's an opportunity
Speaker 2: for that, or how depleted is Hamas now that they
Speaker 2: may not even be able to do that in short
Speaker 2: windows of.
Speaker 7: Time well, first of all, Hamas has demonstrated a tenacity
Speaker 7: which I think surprises everybody. And when you're talking about reconstituting,
Speaker 7: that doesn't really take a lot of effort on the
Speaker 7: part of Hamas because the remaining resonant forces that they
Speaker 7: have are pretty well hunkered down in the tunnels primarily.
Speaker 7: But it's also important to note that that couple of
Speaker 7: days allows Israel to reconstitute some of this forces, not
Speaker 7: necessarily to go back into Gasa or to continue fighting
Speaker 7: in Gaza, but to get them up to the northern
Speaker 7: border because of the worries and concerns about a ground
Speaker 7: operation either coming into or going from Lebanon, an attack
Speaker 7: by his bull or an attack by the Israelis into Lebanon,
Speaker 7: So that gives them time. Their troops are pretty worn
Speaker 7: out as well, and if Israel wants to take on
Speaker 7: or is forced to take on his Bullah, they're going
Speaker 7: to need some reconstitution time as well.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 2: While we watched the border with Lebanon, we're also watching
Speaker 2: Sir the West Bank as Israel this week has begun
Speaker 2: operations there. They killed five Palestinian gunmen there yesterday. It's
Speaker 2: been described as was the strike against the Hesbola targets
Speaker 2: over this past weekend as something that is preemptive. They're
Speaker 2: trying to ward off eminent threats. But could the preemptive
Speaker 2: action still be something that is escalatory.
Speaker 7: Oh, certainly. In fact, the great concern that a lot
Speaker 7: of people have, including myself, as all these preemptive actions
Speaker 7: put Hamas his Bullah, the West Bank, the Hashid, the Hoho,
Speaker 7: these in a position where their pride requires them to
Speaker 7: respond to these preemptive attacks, and we might find ourselves
Speaker 7: spiraling out of control through either miscalculation, misperception, or just
Speaker 7: some mischief on the ground by some of the antagonists.
Speaker 7: So yes, it's important to have preemptive attacks when absolutely necessary.
Speaker 7: There's a question about where that bar is right now
Speaker 7: between preemptive and overly preemptive.
Speaker 2: Well, and of course we're still awaiting the Iranian retaliation
Speaker 2: for the killing of the Hamas political leader in Tehran
Speaker 2: earlier this summer that still hasn't materialized. Sir, I want
Speaker 2: to ask you about something else as well, because it
Speaker 2: is August thirtieth, we are marking today three years since
Speaker 2: the official pullout of the United States forces from Afghanistan.
Speaker 2: Of course, a withdrawal that was in many ways chaotic
Speaker 2: and of course left thirteen members dead. When we consider
Speaker 2: the suicide bombing at the airport, which Donald Trump was
Speaker 2: marking earlier this week, to what extent the conversation we're
Speaker 2: now having about the Middle East, to what extent is
Speaker 2: that shaped by the events of three years ago. When
Speaker 2: Donald Trump suggests that it was the withdrawal from Afghanistan
Speaker 2: that has precipitated a lot of the conflict we have
Speaker 2: seen in the year since, do you think that's a
Speaker 2: fair statement.
Speaker 7: I would question the linkage between what happened in Afghanistan
Speaker 7: and what happened what is happening in Gaza. However, I
Speaker 7: don't think there's any doubt that the Shambalic withdrawal from
Speaker 7: Afghanistan in bold In bladmir Plutin to conduct the attack
Speaker 7: into Ukraine. I think there's more direct linkage between Afghanistan
Speaker 7: and Ukraine than there is between Afghanistan and Gaza.
Speaker 2: Okay, so you do see some linkage there. What is
Speaker 2: the linkage then, to what's happening in Ukraine? This is
Speaker 2: primarily a Russia thing.
Speaker 7: Well, I think the most important thing is that President
Speaker 7: Putin may have perceived that there would not be an
Speaker 7: American response in America was tired of fighting in these
Speaker 7: quote endless wars, that twenty years after fighting in Iraq,
Speaker 7: in Afghanistan, the United States and for that matter, native
Speaker 7: nations wouldn't come to the assistance of Ukraine if it
Speaker 7: was intact, And so he may have put into his
Speaker 7: calculations that a very low probability that a country that
Speaker 7: would run away from Afghanistan would be willing to stand
Speaker 7: behind Ukraine. And as it turns out, of Vladimir Putin
Speaker 7: was wrong.
Speaker 2: Well, certainly he may have been wrong about Joe Biden,
Speaker 2: But do you think Vladimir Putin would be as wrong
Speaker 2: in that if Donald Trump becomes president once again, do
Speaker 2: you believe that Donald Trump won't walk away from Ukraine.
Speaker 7: I think President Trump, if he is re elected, will
Speaker 7: be looking for a negotiated settlement. I'm not sure that
Speaker 7: Ukraine will like the terms of that. This war has
Speaker 7: gone on for quite a few years, and both sides
Speaker 7: seemed to be wearing down, and I think anybody at
Speaker 7: this point would want to see some sort of an
Speaker 7: end to the conflict. The question, of course, is what
Speaker 7: are the terms of that conflict? Termination, who is advantaged
Speaker 7: by that, who wins, who declares victory? I think what
Speaker 7: Donald Trump is saying is that he can find a
Speaker 7: middle ground, that, as Senator Aikens said about Vietnam, they
Speaker 7: can both just declare victory and go home.
Speaker 2: Well, of course, we did learn today that Vladimir Lensky,
Speaker 2: the Ukrainian President, is planning to pitch another peace summit
Speaker 2: in India and wants to talk with Joe Biden next
Speaker 2: month the UN General Assembly about a path to ending
Speaker 2: this war. I do, though, sir, I want to ask
Speaker 2: you something else about Donald Trump. Of course, when he
Speaker 2: was marking the three year anniversary of the deaths of
Speaker 2: thirteen service members earlier this week, he was at Arlington Cemetery,
Speaker 2: he was in Section sixty, in an area where photography
Speaker 2: is not allowed, especially for political purposes. And we understand,
Speaker 2: based on a report on the matter from the Defense Department,
Speaker 2: that a Trump aid actually shoved, although the Trump campaign
Speaker 2: maintains that this was not a physical altercation, shoved someone
Speaker 2: who was trying to get them to stop taking photographs.
Speaker 2: So how does that reflect on someone who's trying, once
Speaker 2: again to be commander in chief.
Speaker 7: Well, I think we do a forensic examination of what happened.
Speaker 7: First of all, I think it's certainly within his prerogative
Speaker 7: and in many ways he should honor the families that
Speaker 7: lost their troops inside of Afghanistan at the Abbey Gate
Speaker 7: and elsewhere. He did come at the request of the families,
Speaker 7: but there is a concern that he may have gone
Speaker 7: over the line, probably did go over the line, or
Speaker 7: his campaign ads went over the aids went over the
Speaker 7: line when this went from being a event to console
Speaker 7: the families to an event that possibly could show up
Speaker 7: in a campaign ad. It's great when president's, former presidents,
Speaker 7: anybody goes and honors are dead troops that have given
Speaker 7: so much, But when they want to leverage that into
Speaker 7: campaign advantage and use that on the campaign trail, I
Speaker 7: think that's when he has gone over the line, and
Speaker 7: either he in planning it or he in his campaign
Speaker 7: ads taking advantage of it. This Arlington is not a
Speaker 7: place that should be used for campaign ads. As people say,
Speaker 7: you can't come into Arlington by request, You only come
Speaker 7: in there because you've served this country.
Speaker 2: On the finally, sir, on the subject of service, because
Speaker 2: that is something else that has arisen in this campaign
Speaker 2: when it comes to Kamala Harris's running mate Tim Wallas,
Speaker 2: who of course served more than twenty years in the
Speaker 2: National Guard, did not, however, deploy to an active combat zone,
Speaker 2: despite his suggestion that he wants Harriet a weapon of
Speaker 2: war in war. He was asked about that on CNN
Speaker 2: last night. He talked about his misuse of proper grammar. Essentially,
Speaker 2: were you satisfied by the answer you got from the
Speaker 2: governor of Minnesota?
Speaker 7: Listen, I don't want to take an opinion on that.
Speaker 7: He has been a great public servant over the years,
Speaker 7: both in the National Guard and in the school system.
Speaker 7: His motivations for why he retired at that time, fully
Speaker 7: understanding if not having a deployment order, but certainly understanding
Speaker 7: that his unit probably would have been deployed. What went
Speaker 7: on in his mind at that time. I think he
Speaker 7: is the only one that can answer that. And again,
Speaker 7: I just don't like it when military service and military
Speaker 7: funerals are used for political purposes. That whole subject and
Speaker 7: that whole issue should be not personalized, nor should be politicized.
Speaker 7: Or service members served this country, they don't serve political parties,
Speaker 7: So let's get that out of the conversation as we
Speaker 7: go into the election season.
Speaker 2: All right, wise words, appreciate your perspective, sir, Thank you
Speaker 2: so much for joining this. Retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt,
Speaker 2: appreciate your time.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: Thank you so much. I'm Kaylee Liones here in Washington.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 2: That's right, Labor Day weekend is upon us. We just
Speaker 2: have a few working hours to go before the holiday weekend,
Speaker 2: in which a lot of people will be traveling, if
Speaker 2: the forecasts are to be leaved, many of them of course,
Speaker 2: traveling by car. And the good news I guess for
Speaker 2: drivers is that gas prices are lower going into this
Speaker 2: Labor Day, and then they were this holiday weekend last year.
Speaker 2: Of course, back then we were looking at three eighty
Speaker 2: and above on the average triple a gas price across
Speaker 2: the country. Now, as we stand here at the end
Speaker 2: of August, three dollars and thirty five cents a gallon
Speaker 2: is what you'll pay at the pump. But we want
Speaker 2: to get into the dynamics we're seeing in gasoline prices
Speaker 2: a little bit more as we look ahead to this
Speaker 2: holiday and the course beyond it, a presidential election in
Speaker 2: which prices of the pump could matter quite a lot.
Speaker 2: So we turn now to Patrick d'han. He is gas
Speaker 2: Buddy's head of petroleum analysis. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV
Speaker 2: and Radio. Patrick, always great to have you. So we
Speaker 2: look obviously at the average labor day weekend price being
Speaker 2: down nearly fifty cents from last year. Is this the
Speaker 2: trajectory that you see continuing once the summer driving season
Speaker 2: officially comes to an.
Speaker 11: End, Acale, I think it is a solid trajectory. As
Speaker 11: you mentioned, price is almost fifty cents a gallon lower
Speaker 11: than last year. That's a thirteen percent shopping block. And
Speaker 11: while the disinflation is at gas line and diesel, it's
Speaker 11: still not hitting other airs the economy, and that's why
Speaker 11: demand this summer has been relatively weak, and that's why
Speaker 11: we expect that this downward trend will continue.
Speaker 9: Got a little bit of a shot in the arm
Speaker 9: for that as well.
Speaker 11: Today OPEC rumored to be considering raising its production sticking
Speaker 11: with its plan, which is a bit of a surprise.
Speaker 11: But we certainly could see more and more gas phrases
Speaker 11: below the three dollars gallon mark. Gas Weddy data showing
Speaker 11: eight states where average gas pras are below three dollars
Speaker 11: a gallon for Labor Day. That number could double or
Speaker 11: even triple by the time we get to Halloween or
Speaker 11: into Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2: Okay, well, so that of course puts us if we're
Speaker 2: talking Halloween just on the cusp of the presidential election.
Speaker 2: So where exactly do you think the average price will
Speaker 2: be come November fifth, Patrick.
Speaker 11: There's certainly a good possibility we could be just teetering
Speaker 11: on the three dollars gallon mark, potentially falling below it. Now,
Speaker 11: there are some contingencies and caveats, you could say, the
Speaker 11: typical caveats apply. Hurricane season has been relatively quiet, but
Speaker 11: we are in the prime. There are a couple of
Speaker 11: areas of interest of the National Hurricane Centers monitoring, and
Speaker 11: of course the other wildcard the Middle East tensions right
Speaker 11: now de escalating a bit but there's always the possibility
Speaker 11: that there could be new violence between Israel and Hamas.
Speaker 9: Or Hezbola or Iran, and so that could be a wildcard.
Speaker 9: But I think there's a pretty solid.
Speaker 11: Chance that, if not by Halloween, the national average could
Speaker 11: fall below the three dollars gal mark by Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2: Well, that certainly is something to consider as we think
Speaker 2: about the political consequences of that. On the subject of politics, there,
Speaker 2: of course is an argument that's being made by Donald
Speaker 2: Trump when he is talking about what he wants to
Speaker 2: do to get inflation down frequently Patrick's answer is drill, baby, drill.
Speaker 2: Of course, as we consider where prices are right now,
Speaker 2: it is against a backdrop of record oil production in
Speaker 2: the US. How much would drilling more, pumping more matter
Speaker 2: actually to gasoline prices if we're still considering refining margins
Speaker 2: here and frankly, oil companies by and large still have
Speaker 2: tried to maintain capital discipline. They're not really seeking to
Speaker 2: punt more.
Speaker 9: Right, Yeah, Kaylee, exactly right.
Speaker 11: It's taken a long time for us to reach this
Speaker 11: thirteen point three, thirteen point four million barrel the day
Speaker 11: territory really since COVID, and as you mentioned this has
Speaker 11: been a very calm, cool and collected environment that oil
Speaker 11: producers have raised production. Now, keep in mind, on the
Speaker 11: other side of things, OPAK is getting a little bit
Speaker 11: while some OPEC members rather are getting a little bit
Speaker 11: tired of those production cuts that OPEC announced last year,
Speaker 11: and so OPEK is poised to bring some of that back.
Speaker 11: The other wild card too for President Trump saying drill, baby,
Speaker 11: drill again, the US is not a state owned oil company.
Speaker 11: There's only so many incentives you can give oil companies
Speaker 11: to do what would be against their interest and raising production,
Speaker 11: which could potentially undermine the cost of oil and drive
Speaker 11: it down.
Speaker 9: The other factor that's really.
Speaker 11: Interesting is Trump's potential play when it comes to tariffs,
Speaker 11: promising maybe twenty percent terriffs. Keep in mind, the US
Speaker 11: produces millions of barrels a day oil from Canada. Those
Speaker 11: tariffs could send gas prices skyrocketing in areas of the Midwest.
Speaker 11: If President Trump is serious.
Speaker 2: Is there is there an equivalent twenty percent tariff cent
Speaker 2: figure at the pump or a relationship between the two.
Speaker 2: How much realistically do you think that could increase gas
Speaker 2: prices in the worst case scenario, Well, you.
Speaker 11: Know, a twenty percent increase might today represent a fifteen
Speaker 11: dollars barrel jump. At fifteen dollars a barrel divided by
Speaker 11: forty two is not an significant number that could boost
Speaker 11: gas prices theoretically in the ballpark of fifteen to thirty
Speaker 11: five cents a gallon.
Speaker 9: It would be contingent on season.
Speaker 11: The bigger increase, if the terraces were established, would be
Speaker 11: when a gas lane demand is highest and when refineries
Speaker 11: need to kick out supply.
Speaker 9: So that's not something small.
Speaker 11: And when we're talking about the difference between three dollars
Speaker 11: gas and two dollars and eighty cent gas, that could
Speaker 11: be a differentiator there that President Trump may risk the
Speaker 11: ire of folks, especially in the Great Lakes, which is
Speaker 11: the market that that Canadian oil is the beneficiary to
Speaker 11: Great Lakes refiners predominantly produce oil derived from Canadian crude,
Speaker 11: so that could be problematic in areas of the Midwest.
Speaker 2: Well, I also have to consider as well when he's
Speaker 2: talking about tariffs well beyond twenty percent, potentially sixty percent
Speaker 2: on all goods coming from China, which is obviously a
Speaker 2: massive trade partner and can not only have recommendation ramifications
Speaker 2: for the economy at home in terms of higher cost,
Speaker 2: but could be very detrimental to China's own economy, which
Speaker 2: already is struggling. How much of the lower prices we're
Speaker 2: seeing patrick are because of weakness in the second largest economy.
Speaker 11: Certainly a big portion of the discussion this year has
Speaker 11: been a lack of consumption in China, where they're likely
Speaker 11: continuing to fill their strategic reserve, and once that's done,
Speaker 11: if their economy can't get off the ground.
Speaker 9: We could be looking at a real struggle for crude oil.
Speaker 11: And that's why it's interesting that OPEC would be choosing
Speaker 11: now to potentially raise production. The US economy may start
Speaker 11: to improve, but in China it's been a difficult guessing
Speaker 11: game on throwing things at the wall and to see
Speaker 11: what will.
Speaker 9: Boost the Chinese economy.
Speaker 11: Nothing's really worked just yet, so you know, if China
Speaker 11: remains in this economic slowdown, it's going to.
Speaker 9: Have a profound impact on oil moving forward. Arguably it could.
Speaker 11: Offset the potential impact from some of these terrafts that
Speaker 11: Trump head outlined.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 2: Of course, as we consider what China is doing to
Speaker 2: stimulate its own economy, there could be more stimulative monetary
Speaker 2: policy coming in the US pretty soon. The FED is
Speaker 2: expected to cut rates in September, and if markets are
Speaker 2: to be believed, they could cut a whole one hundred
Speaker 2: basis points by the time the year is over. Do
Speaker 2: you expect that there's going to be a demand translation
Speaker 2: from lower rates when it comes to prices of the
Speaker 2: pumps or if this is happening in the fall and
Speaker 2: winter seasons, will it not matter as much?
Speaker 11: Yeah, it probably won't be as significant as cutting rates
Speaker 11: or having lower rates in a more conducive environment a
Speaker 11: spring or summer when Americans are feeling much better about
Speaker 11: getting out because of low interest rates. I think that
Speaker 11: would be the primary time of year that there would
Speaker 11: be a windfall when it comes to gasoline demand. Right now,
Speaker 11: with schools reopening, Americans or back to the grind, back
Speaker 11: to their normal Monday through Friday commute, and there's not
Speaker 11: a whole lot of uptick now. It could mean some
Speaker 11: Americans feel better. They may take some fall road trips
Speaker 11: and foliage color tours. But I think there's a lot
Speaker 11: more opportunity next spring and summer. Should the economy slow down,
Speaker 11: Americans may start to feel better about their prospects, and
Speaker 11: that could raise demand going into twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: All Right, Patrick, really appreciate the analysis. Graace to have
Speaker 2: you on this Labor Day weekend. E. Patrick dehunt is
Speaker 2: gas Buddy's head of petroleum analysis.
Speaker 11: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
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