1
00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

2
00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

3
00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:16,959
Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then roud Otto

4
00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:20,079
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

5
00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:25,280
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:28,400
Speaker 2: Labor Day weekend is now upon us. I'm Kaylee Lions.

7
00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:30,440
Speaker 2: And of course here in Balance of Power, where we

8
00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,480
Speaker 2: follow politics, we do know that historically it's after Labor

9
00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,400
Speaker 2: Day that we consider summer over, and in then election

10
00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:40,600
Speaker 2: cycle the sprint toward election day is on. But of

11
00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:43,280
Speaker 2: course this cycle has been unlike cycles in the past.

12
00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:44,960
Speaker 2: I think we all know that. Of course, it began

13
00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:48,559
Speaker 2: as the longest general election campaign in history when both

14
00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,440
Speaker 2: Donald Trump and Joe Biden had their party's nominations locked

15
00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:54,480
Speaker 2: up after Super Tuesday, and then it got flipped upside

16
00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,400
Speaker 2: down entirely when now almost six weeks ago, Joe Biden

17
00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:00,279
Speaker 2: left the race and Kamala Harris took the helm as

18
00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:04,640
Speaker 2: the Democratic nominee. And to just underscore how quickly and

19
00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:08,800
Speaker 2: how significantly this game has changed since, look to Bloomberg's

20
00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:11,160
Speaker 2: new polling with Morning Consolt. Of course, looking at the

21
00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:14,959
Speaker 2: key seven battleground states, in which we find she is

22
00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:18,440
Speaker 2: up two points on Donald Trump across them, leading him

23
00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:21,360
Speaker 2: in six of the seven. The seventh Arizona, they are

24
00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:24,160
Speaker 2: in a dead heat, literally tied. So for more details

25
00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:26,880
Speaker 2: on this pole, Bloomberg's Gregory Cordy joins me. He spent

26
00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:30,119
Speaker 2: all of yesterday pouring through the numbers, and of course

27
00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:32,560
Speaker 2: it is the headlines that stand out here, Gregor, we

28
00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:36,080
Speaker 2: were looking at four point leads in Nevada and Pennsylvania,

29
00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:39,280
Speaker 2: which is a mushrooms must win state, and even eight

30
00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:40,839
Speaker 2: points up in Wisconsin.

31
00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:45,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a pretty good poll for Kamala Harris.

32
00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:48,400
Speaker 3: It builds on what we saw last month when she

33
00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,480
Speaker 3: first entered the race. She's spill on that a little

34
00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:55,800
Speaker 3: bit one percentage point overall across the seven states, which

35
00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,080
Speaker 3: isn't anything to put too much of an emphasis on.

36
00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:01,880
Speaker 3: That's within the margin of error. But as you point out,

37
00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:04,480
Speaker 3: her worst state is the state that she's tied with

38
00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:07,160
Speaker 3: Donald Trump, and that's Arizona. And then you go all

39
00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:08,720
Speaker 3: the way up through a number of states that are

40
00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:11,440
Speaker 3: within the margin of era to Wisconsin, which has always

41
00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,120
Speaker 3: been a good Democratic state. Now it's a solid Democratic

42
00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,440
Speaker 3: state at least as some map looks now and as

43
00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,800
Speaker 3: you point out Pennsylvania, all eyes on that keystone state,

44
00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,480
Speaker 3: which is the keystone to this election. It is what

45
00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:26,200
Speaker 3: we call the tipping point state. It's hard to imagine

46
00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,000
Speaker 3: either candidate getting to two hundred and seventy electoral votes

47
00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:33,560
Speaker 3: without winning Pennsylvania, and as of now, Kamala Harris seems

48
00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:34,679
Speaker 3: to have the edge there well.

49
00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,920
Speaker 2: And it's not just having the edge in the overall

50
00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,840
Speaker 2: question around who these voters would cast a vote for

51
00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,760
Speaker 2: with president, but also they're thinking on the issues and

52
00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,240
Speaker 2: what issues they trust each of these candidates with, because

53
00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,080
Speaker 2: we're seeing some pretty mark change from what Joe Biden

54
00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:53,280
Speaker 2: frankly had distrust in that Kamala Sarris seems to have

55
00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:54,919
Speaker 2: more trust in when it comes to the economy.

56
00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:58,400
Speaker 3: That's the most remarkable thing about this poll. We've been

57
00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,040
Speaker 3: doing this tracking poll for a eleven months now, starting

58
00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,440
Speaker 3: last October. We'll do two more in September and this October.

59
00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:10,160
Speaker 3: But what we saw here is a pretty market break

60
00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,560
Speaker 3: from how voters perceived Joe Biden when he was still

61
00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,600
Speaker 3: in the race and how they're perceiving his vice president

62
00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,920
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris On issue after issue, especially on the economy,

63
00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:25,600
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris is outperforming where Joe Biden was just two

64
00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:29,680
Speaker 3: months ago. Voters trust her more on issues like housing costs,

65
00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:33,760
Speaker 3: on pay raises, unemployment, personal debt like student loans and

66
00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:36,680
Speaker 3: credit cards, interest rates, on a lot of those things

67
00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,720
Speaker 3: I just mentioned, she's actually polling higher than Donald Trump,

68
00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:43,720
Speaker 3: and she's narrowing the gap on that all important who

69
00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,240
Speaker 3: do you trust on the inflation question, which voters have

70
00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:48,119
Speaker 3: told us time and time again is the single most

71
00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:50,800
Speaker 3: important economic issue, and we're seeing it not just in

72
00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:55,200
Speaker 3: the economic issues, but in issues like Gaza. We've been

73
00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,400
Speaker 3: talking about how and the Vice President addressed this in

74
00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:02,680
Speaker 3: her interview last night, whether or not she would make

75
00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:08,000
Speaker 3: a change in US policy and Gaza. Certainly voter swing

76
00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:11,000
Speaker 3: state voters and especially Democrats are giving her the benefit

77
00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:14,160
Speaker 3: of the doubt on that issue. So she's really swipe

78
00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:17,280
Speaker 3: the slate clean. And I like how you put it.

79
00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:21,520
Speaker 3: Before we went from the longest presidential election in history

80
00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,520
Speaker 3: to really what's become the shortest. This is a brand

81
00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:28,520
Speaker 3: new race, and really I think we should just maybe

82
00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:30,840
Speaker 3: just agreed to let's all forget about Joe Biden. He's

83
00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:32,880
Speaker 3: still the president of United States. He still asked to governor, right,

84
00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,760
Speaker 3: But from this point forward, it's really Harris versus Trump,

85
00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:40,000
Speaker 3: and anything any baggage that Joe Biden brought to this

86
00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,440
Speaker 3: race is pretty much gone in the minds of most

87
00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:44,400
Speaker 3: swing state voters.

88
00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:46,760
Speaker 2: Well, that does seem like it may create a strategic

89
00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:49,720
Speaker 2: problem for Donald Trump, who had spent months going after

90
00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:53,240
Speaker 2: Joe Biden, specifically in the Biden administration's policies. Is there

91
00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:56,480
Speaker 2: any good news for the Republican nominee in this Paul.

92
00:04:56,279 --> 00:05:02,000
Speaker 3: Gregory, Well, Kanal Harris did not get a post convention bounce.

93
00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:03,640
Speaker 3: That's what we were all looking for. And if we

94
00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:07,400
Speaker 3: had the traditional rhythms, the traditional ups and downs of

95
00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:09,640
Speaker 3: a campaign cycle, you would have expected Trump to get

96
00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,200
Speaker 3: a bounce out of his convention and Harris to get

97
00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:17,359
Speaker 3: a bump out of hers. But remember Trump almost got

98
00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:21,080
Speaker 3: killed going into his convention, wrote a big high, and

99
00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:25,040
Speaker 3: then two days after the convention, Joe Biden drops out

100
00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:29,000
Speaker 3: and permanently changed the race for Kamala Harris. She came

101
00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,320
Speaker 3: into the election with a writing a big wave of enthusiasm.

102
00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:34,520
Speaker 3: She's still on a sort of honeymoon. So if you're

103
00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:37,520
Speaker 3: Donald Trump. You're hoping that honeymoon ends. You're hoping that

104
00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,680
Speaker 3: interviews like last night's interview with CNN will somehow find

105
00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,919
Speaker 3: a way to trip Harris up. I didn't hear that

106
00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:49,480
Speaker 3: happen last night. Certainly, if you're looking for policy detail

107
00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,400
Speaker 3: from her, you probably didn't hear it. But she also

108
00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:54,240
Speaker 3: probably didn't do herself a whole lot of damage. So

109
00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:57,200
Speaker 3: now all eyes are on that September tenth debate an

110
00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,880
Speaker 3: ABC in Philadelphia, and that's where Trump is going to

111
00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:03,359
Speaker 3: try to change the dynamic of this race back again

112
00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:05,960
Speaker 3: to try to seize the advantage. It's still this race

113
00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:08,720
Speaker 3: is still on a razor's edge. It's anyone's to win.

114
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:11,840
Speaker 3: But at least according to our polling and some other

115
00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:15,760
Speaker 3: public polling, you'd probably rather be in Vice President Kamala

116
00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,240
Speaker 3: Harris's shoes than in Donald Trump's.

117
00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:19,640
Speaker 2: I wonder if she's still going to be trying to

118
00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,640
Speaker 2: paint herself as the underdog now with data life, it

119
00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,479
Speaker 2: can be harder. Yeah, all right, bloombergs Gregory Cordy, thank

120
00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:27,920
Speaker 2: you so much. Appreciate it, And of course, Gregory leading

121
00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,080
Speaker 2: us right to our next topic of conversation, which is

122
00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,960
Speaker 2: that interview that took place on CNN last night. It

123
00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,840
Speaker 2: was not just Kamala Harris. Tim Wolls was also with her,

124
00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:38,200
Speaker 2: But of course a lot of the questioning from Dana

125
00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,839
Speaker 2: Bash of CNN was directed towards the vice president and

126
00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,080
Speaker 2: presidential nominee. Here's a sampling of how it went.

127
00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:46,839
Speaker 4: My agenda includes what we need to do to bring

128
00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,080
Speaker 4: down the price of groceries, for example, dealing with an

129
00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:51,640
Speaker 4: issue like price gouging. What we need to do to

130
00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:55,000
Speaker 4: extend the child tax credit to help young families be

131
00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:57,679
Speaker 4: able to take care of their children in their most

132
00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,280
Speaker 4: formative years. What we need to do to bring down

133
00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,880
Speaker 4: the cost of housing. And I made that clear on

134
00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:06,920
Speaker 4: the debate station in twenty twenty that I would not banfracking.

135
00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:10,360
Speaker 4: As vice president, I did not banfracking. As president, I

136
00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,560
Speaker 4: will not banfracking. There should be consequence. We have laws

137
00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:17,840
Speaker 4: that have to be followed and enforced that address and

138
00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:21,080
Speaker 4: deal with people who cross our border illegally. And I

139
00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,600
Speaker 4: think it would be to the benefit of the American

140
00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:26,160
Speaker 4: public to have a member of my cabinet who is

141
00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:29,160
Speaker 4: a Republican. We have to get a deal done. This

142
00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:32,000
Speaker 4: war must end INtime, and we must get a deal

143
00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:36,560
Speaker 4: that is about getting the hostages out. I've met with

144
00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:40,440
Speaker 4: the families of the American hostages. Let's get the hostages out.

145
00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:42,000
Speaker 4: Let's get the ceasefire done.

146
00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,880
Speaker 2: The question is, did Kamala Harris change any minds for

147
00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:52,160
Speaker 2: better or worse with that interview last night? So for

148
00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:54,080
Speaker 2: an answer to you that, let's turn out to Jane Hall.

149
00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,679
Speaker 2: She is American University Associate professor of Journalism and Media

150
00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:02,320
Speaker 2: Studies and author of Politics and the Media, Intersections and

151
00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:06,400
Speaker 2: New Directions. Jane, welcome back to Bloomberg. You are a professor.

152
00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:08,560
Speaker 2: What greed would you give Kamala Harris when it comes

153
00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:09,680
Speaker 2: to her interview performance?

154
00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:15,120
Speaker 5: You know, I would give her an as I think

155
00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:18,600
Speaker 5: that she did well. I think that clearly her messaging

156
00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:21,760
Speaker 5: on the points that she made about the economy, although

157
00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:24,480
Speaker 5: she didn't start out that way. Danna asked her a

158
00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:26,400
Speaker 5: question about what would you do day one, which is

159
00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:28,840
Speaker 5: kind of a kind of a gotcha question. She came

160
00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,480
Speaker 5: back to it and talked about what you had the

161
00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:34,400
Speaker 5: SoundBite from, and I think that messaging of I will

162
00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:36,679
Speaker 5: be there for you, I will help you, I will

163
00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:40,840
Speaker 5: restore the middle class, and these are some specifics she's

164
00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,520
Speaker 5: been hammered over not having enough specifics. She has specifics,

165
00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:48,320
Speaker 5: and I think she legislated that very well. And I

166
00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,079
Speaker 5: do think also it was very interesting, you know, I'm

167
00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:55,760
Speaker 5: a student of women and gender issues and politics and media.

168
00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:59,960
Speaker 5: It was very interesting the way she handled herself, the table,

169
00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,640
Speaker 5: she was at, the fact that Tim wallsh was with her.

170
00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,360
Speaker 5: I noticed Trump said he didn't think she looked like

171
00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:07,559
Speaker 5: a leader. I think it's because he would have had

172
00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:10,160
Speaker 5: a crown, you know, he would have had something else.

173
00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:12,199
Speaker 5: He would have asked for more trappings. And I think

174
00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:15,600
Speaker 5: that's an interesting choice that she was with him and

175
00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:18,160
Speaker 5: yet she was in charge. She clearly trying to say

176
00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,239
Speaker 5: it's okay, guys, you know, this is how this can work.

177
00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:23,079
Speaker 6: Well.

178
00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:25,440
Speaker 2: But to the point about this being a joint interview.

179
00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,000
Speaker 2: Them together at the table, they weren't, you know, sitting

180
00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,120
Speaker 2: in typically the soft seating you would kind of see

181
00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,000
Speaker 2: in interviews like this, they had. She had her arms

182
00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:35,560
Speaker 2: up on the table at many points in the interview,

183
00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:38,280
Speaker 2: while Tim Walls sat for the most part quietly beside her.

184
00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,839
Speaker 2: He of course didn't feeld as many questions. Do you

185
00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:43,240
Speaker 2: think his presence there really served a purpose or was

186
00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:47,040
Speaker 2: it actually detrimental to what Harris may have wanted to accomplish.

187
00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:50,520
Speaker 5: You know, I think it worked. I think if he

188
00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,600
Speaker 5: had had too many questions, people would have said, why

189
00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,280
Speaker 5: did she need quote unquote to bring him. This is

190
00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:58,840
Speaker 5: not the first joint interview that has been done. The

191
00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,640
Speaker 5: critics of this have said that this was her first

192
00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:04,240
Speaker 5: big interview, so why did she bring him? But I

193
00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:07,640
Speaker 5: think they are counting on the visual framing and the

194
00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:12,560
Speaker 5: visual messaging that here is a guy who is sitting

195
00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,840
Speaker 5: there and he was deferential to her, and yet when

196
00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:17,560
Speaker 5: he was asked, you know, when he was pressed on

197
00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:21,240
Speaker 5: some things, he spoke up. I think it worked. It's interesting,

198
00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,240
Speaker 5: you know, it was a table in a cafe. I'm

199
00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,280
Speaker 5: not sure if I'd been her campaign not to make

200
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:28,520
Speaker 5: too much of this, if I had me, if I

201
00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:31,120
Speaker 5: would have allowed it to be that casual looking. I

202
00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:35,440
Speaker 5: do think this symbolism does matter, but I think it

203
00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:36,800
Speaker 5: was good to have him there.

204
00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:38,360
Speaker 7: Well.

205
00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:40,120
Speaker 2: And it wasn't just a cafe. It was a black

206
00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:44,079
Speaker 2: owned cafe in Georgia, specifically Jane and on the subject

207
00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:48,120
Speaker 2: of color. Of course, this is something that Kamala Harris

208
00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,880
Speaker 2: hasn't been super forward with in her candidacy. She hasn't

209
00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:53,160
Speaker 2: really leaned on the historic nature of being a woman

210
00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,040
Speaker 2: of color who is leading a major party's presidential ticket.

211
00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:58,240
Speaker 2: And she also didn't really play ball when she was

212
00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:02,080
Speaker 2: questioned about the way Donald Trump has characterized her racial identity.

213
00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:05,160
Speaker 2: Let's just remind ourselves of that very brief Q and

214
00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:06,000
Speaker 2: A last night.

215
00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,600
Speaker 8: He suggested that you happened to turn black recently for

216
00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:14,080
Speaker 8: political purposes, questioning a core part of your identity.

217
00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,720
Speaker 6: Yeah.

218
00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:23,240
Speaker 4: An, he's same, old tired playbook. Next question, please, that's it.

219
00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:28,840
Speaker 2: Did not engage with it hardly at all, Jane, what

220
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:30,839
Speaker 2: do you make of that strategy?

221
00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:36,320
Speaker 5: You know, I have to say that it's clearly a strategy,

222
00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:38,960
Speaker 5: and it is apparently clearly the way she feels, in

223
00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:43,040
Speaker 5: the way she's comported herself her whole life. I think, frankly,

224
00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:47,520
Speaker 5: it's somewhat risky to not engage at all. I think

225
00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,240
Speaker 5: the hope is, and what I'll be interested to see

226
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,520
Speaker 5: is what does he do on that debate stage. I mean,

227
00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:56,880
Speaker 5: you have a split screen in what he has been

228
00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:00,160
Speaker 5: saying about her in rallies and and what he has

229
00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:04,120
Speaker 5: been posting. And I would imagine the hope is that

230
00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:08,840
Speaker 5: women will be so turned off, and Republican women, democratic

231
00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:13,480
Speaker 5: women are so turned off by his stances on reproductive rights,

232
00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,080
Speaker 5: but also the way he has been trashing her, the

233
00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:18,680
Speaker 5: way that jd. Vance has said she can go to

234
00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:22,400
Speaker 5: help over commentary she didn't even do over the cemetery incident.

235
00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:25,520
Speaker 5: I think it's a strategy, probably the way she has

236
00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:28,920
Speaker 5: conducted herself. I don't know if you should say I'm

237
00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:31,840
Speaker 5: never going to talk about it. Women and women of

238
00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:37,280
Speaker 5: color have to prove their accomplishments, and that is something

239
00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,080
Speaker 5: that she knows and they I think that's what they're

240
00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:43,800
Speaker 5: leaning on, and they're hoping that he will do the

241
00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:47,320
Speaker 5: dirty work for her, frankly, be so racist in his

242
00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:51,240
Speaker 5: commentary and that that will be publicized and that's all

243
00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:55,319
Speaker 5: she has to do. I frankly would have liked to

244
00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:57,719
Speaker 5: have seen some sort of a sense of what does

245
00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:02,560
Speaker 5: it feel like to be the first She was asked

246
00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,440
Speaker 5: about it with that wonderful photograph of her great niece,

247
00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:08,160
Speaker 5: and in my view, she hesitated a little as to

248
00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:09,760
Speaker 5: whether she was going to talk about it, you know,

249
00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,600
Speaker 5: the little girl in pigtails looking up. She said she

250
00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,720
Speaker 5: was very moved. But again, I think she has just

251
00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:19,640
Speaker 5: decided and they've decided we're not going there. I'm not

252
00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:21,920
Speaker 5: sure that's going to work in the debate, And we'll

253
00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:24,240
Speaker 5: see what happens in the debate and in terms of

254
00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:26,800
Speaker 5: what is quoted back to him and what does she

255
00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:27,880
Speaker 5: need to respond to.

256
00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,080
Speaker 2: Well, Gene, might that also depend on whether or not

257
00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,480
Speaker 2: the mics stay hot the whole time or muted like

258
00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:38,319
Speaker 2: we saw in June between Trump and Biden. ABC's debate

259
00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:40,720
Speaker 2: rules say the mics will be muted. We don't know

260
00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:42,880
Speaker 2: yet that the Harris campaign has agreed to that they

261
00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:43,560
Speaker 2: want them hot.

262
00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:46,760
Speaker 5: Well, you know, I think I was on with you

263
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:49,120
Speaker 5: all before the debate, and I think I was out

264
00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:52,080
Speaker 5: there saying I think that the mike's being muted would

265
00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:55,400
Speaker 5: allow him to uh and also no audience would allow

266
00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:58,720
Speaker 5: him to stay presidential for you know, and play by

267
00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:02,200
Speaker 5: the rules literally for the time that was needed. This

268
00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:05,120
Speaker 5: was for the Biden debate, of course, you know, I

269
00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:10,240
Speaker 5: think it serves them for him to lose it in

270
00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,480
Speaker 5: a sense, you know, to not stay on policy. Certainly,

271
00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:15,920
Speaker 5: she's gonna question him about how are you now talking

272
00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:21,280
Speaker 5: about how you're gonna have free IVF treatments when what

273
00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:23,640
Speaker 5: you've done is overturn Roe v Wade. I mean, she

274
00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:27,160
Speaker 5: can go after him on policy, but I think I

275
00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,720
Speaker 5: think it doesn't help her as much as it would

276
00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,240
Speaker 5: help him to have the MIC's muted.

277
00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,840
Speaker 2: Well, I guess we'll see if agreement is reached on that. Finally, Jane,

278
00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:40,160
Speaker 2: we have less than a minute left. But how are

279
00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:42,760
Speaker 2: you thinking about the earned media race?

280
00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:43,360
Speaker 9: Here?

281
00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,720
Speaker 2: The idea that Donald Trump really dominated that in election cycles.

282
00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,080
Speaker 2: We've seen him comped in in the past, but this

283
00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:50,360
Speaker 2: kind of feels different, doesn't it.

284
00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:53,240
Speaker 5: Oh, you know, I think that's such a good point.

285
00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:56,400
Speaker 5: I meant, he didn't have to spend nearly as much

286
00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:59,720
Speaker 5: because he got incredible free media. She is getting the

287
00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:05,720
Speaker 5: free media. She that convention was absolutely perfected, perfected to

288
00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:10,960
Speaker 5: reframe choice and reframe freedom and seize back patriotism. I mean,

289
00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:13,280
Speaker 5: those are the kind of ads they're doing.

290
00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:14,920
Speaker 8: She's she's she.

291
00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:18,280
Speaker 5: Is handling this very well in terms of media. You

292
00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:20,280
Speaker 5: know the other thing that I think is interesting in

293
00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,320
Speaker 5: terms of media, she could go do local interviews. I

294
00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,960
Speaker 5: would imagine they are going to do local interviews. I

295
00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,400
Speaker 5: thought Dana did a fine job, but I think I

296
00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,880
Speaker 5: think she's continuing to get a honeymoon in the media too.

297
00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:34,680
Speaker 9: Well.

298
00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,040
Speaker 2: Of course, we're hoping she'll come talk to us, as

299
00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:39,440
Speaker 2: we're hoping Donald Trump will hear on Bloomberg. Thanks for

300
00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,280
Speaker 2: joining us, Jane Hall of American University, Appreciate your time.

301
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:43,200
Speaker 2: We'll be right back.

302
00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,720
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

303
00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:52,720
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and

304
00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:55,560
Speaker 1: enroyd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

305
00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:59,160
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

306
00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:01,840
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.

307
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,560
Speaker 2: Happy Friday to everyone, as we marked the last Friday

308
00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:10,520
Speaker 2: of what I guess we unofficially call summer. It's hard

309
00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,040
Speaker 2: to believe that Labor Day is already upon us, especially

310
00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:17,360
Speaker 2: considering the summer we have had in American politics. It's

311
00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:21,240
Speaker 2: been probably unlike any summer in modern American political history.

312
00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,280
Speaker 2: For remember back to Memorial Day, this was still a

313
00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,680
Speaker 2: race the longest general election cycle we'd seen in modern history,

314
00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:31,280
Speaker 2: between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. By June twenty seventh,

315
00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,880
Speaker 2: that fateful CNN debate between the two where calls started

316
00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,800
Speaker 2: to begin for Joe Biden to drop out of the race,

317
00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:40,280
Speaker 2: and then, of course, on the eve of the Republican

318
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,440
Speaker 2: Convention on July thirteenth, Donald Trump was shot in an

319
00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,920
Speaker 2: attempted assassination attempt. Two days later, he announced Jade Vance

320
00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,640
Speaker 2: as his running mate at the RNC, and just days

321
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:53,680
Speaker 2: after that ended, on July twenty first, Joe Biden did it.

322
00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,160
Speaker 2: He left the race and endorsed Kamala Harris, who within

323
00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,040
Speaker 2: days had essentially locked up the Democratic nomination. She of

324
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,680
Speaker 2: course trapped up the convention in Chicago last week with

325
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,080
Speaker 2: Tim Walls, her running mate, at her side, and in

326
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,639
Speaker 2: the six weeks and she became the candidate. We have

327
00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,520
Speaker 2: seen a big change in this race, not only in

328
00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:12,800
Speaker 2: terms of the fundraising game. She's crossed the half a

329
00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:16,160
Speaker 2: billion dollar threshold as of last week, but she's made

330
00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:18,879
Speaker 2: traumatic changes in polling as well, doing far better than

331
00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,080
Speaker 2: Joe Biden was at the point he left the race,

332
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,639
Speaker 2: and gaining gown ground against Donald Trump in some of

333
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:27,760
Speaker 2: the key battleground states. That's what our latest pulling indicates. Bloomberg,

334
00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 2: together with Morning Console, taking a look at those seven

335
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,640
Speaker 2: swing states and finding Harris ahead of Trump by two

336
00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,679
Speaker 2: points on average across them. So for more on that,

337
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:39,520
Speaker 2: let's turn to Elioakley Morning consoles US politics analyst who

338
00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:44,000
Speaker 2: joins us every poll period. We've of course had eleven

339
00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,120
Speaker 2: of these at this point, Eli, so we're getting used

340
00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:48,080
Speaker 2: to talking to you. Thank you for being here on

341
00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:50,920
Speaker 2: this Friday. Of course, we're within the margin of error

342
00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:53,399
Speaker 2: in a number of these states. Not so in Wisconsin though,

343
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,040
Speaker 2: where she's up eight points. But broadly this paints a

344
00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,200
Speaker 2: picture of a wider map for Harris.

345
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:02,399
Speaker 10: Yeah, are much better for Kamala Harris than they were

346
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,720
Speaker 10: for Joe Biden. That sounds almost obvious to say, but

347
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,119
Speaker 10: your explanation of what happened this summer is right. I mean,

348
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:12,920
Speaker 10: it was a dramatic shift in the American political landscape,

349
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:17,240
Speaker 10: and voters noticed Kamala Harris is on better footing than

350
00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:20,400
Speaker 10: Joe Biden ever was across every single one of these states.

351
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 10: That's the good news for Democrats. The challenge for them,

352
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,639
Speaker 10: the advantage or the possibility for Trump maybe is the

353
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,320
Speaker 10: fact that a lot of these states are really really close.

354
00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:33,000
Speaker 10: I mean, Arizona's tied, George is basically tied, Michigan's close,

355
00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,520
Speaker 10: North Carolina and Nevada are pretty close. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Kamala

356
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:39,919
Speaker 10: Harris looks to be in an okay position, but those

357
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,760
Speaker 10: are also tight races. This contest isn't over. Maybe it

358
00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 10: was over before Joe Biden left the race, but that's

359
00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:47,960
Speaker 10: what's changed in the last few weeks.

360
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 2: This is a real race, yeah, which indicates that it's

361
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:53,880
Speaker 2: going to be a rough and tumble for the next

362
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 2: sixty something Daisy Lie leading up to election day. When

363
00:18:57,800 --> 00:18:59,959
Speaker 2: we consider though, the idea that even though these are

364
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 2: still incredibly tight margin, she is out pulling where Joe

365
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,679
Speaker 2: Biden was. What do we attribute that to? Is this

366
00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,399
Speaker 2: Democratic voters who are more likely to turn out for

367
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,840
Speaker 2: a different candidate. Is this independence who seem to have

368
00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,479
Speaker 2: been swayed from being potentially a double hater to at

369
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:18,040
Speaker 2: least tolerating her. Is this other demographics like black voters, Latinos.

370
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:19,920
Speaker 2: What does the breakdown of the data show us.

371
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,439
Speaker 10: It's all the above. I mean, look, Joe Biden's problem

372
00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 10: in when he was in the contest was he was

373
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 10: not performing as well with his own twenty twenty voters

374
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 10: as Donald Trump was. Kamala Harris has reversed that. We're

375
00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 10: seeing what everybody's calling a vibes shift. Happened in this contest,

376
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,240
Speaker 10: and one of the questions we asked in this survey

377
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:42,720
Speaker 10: kind of underscores that we asked voters if they were voting.

378
00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:46,440
Speaker 10: We asked Democratic presidential candidate supporters if they were voting

379
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 10: for the candidate or against Trump. And when we asked

380
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 10: about Harris this time around, they were fifteen points more

381
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 10: likely across the swing stave map to ascribe that positive

382
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 10: motivator to their vote than they were to Biden when

383
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 10: we ask asked back in April, we were all of

384
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 10: our Democratic National Convention in Chicago. We saw the energy

385
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,520
Speaker 10: in that room of core activist supporters, but you know,

386
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:11,920
Speaker 10: we're seeing that across the country. She was down in

387
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 10: southern Georgia. There were lines in that rural community around

388
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,199
Speaker 10: the Blox trying to go see her. Clearly, something is

389
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 10: happening there. She's getting so much positive media attention that

390
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,359
Speaker 10: is breaking through to the public. I mean, we've not

391
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,159
Speaker 10: necessarily seen a convention bump, and that's probably because she

392
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 10: got her bump already when she launched her campaign after

393
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:33,440
Speaker 10: Joe Biden dropped out.

394
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 2: Well fair enough, maybe she already peaked, if you will,

395
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:40,400
Speaker 2: But it does seem that at least that peak has

396
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 2: turned into a plateau rather than something that has gone

397
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,400
Speaker 2: back down the hill. Eli, I also want to zero

398
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 2: in on the findings here regarding the economy and specific

399
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 2: economic issues, including help for the middle class and housing.

400
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,120
Speaker 2: Where it's not just that Harris is doing better than

401
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: Joe Biden was on those issues, she is out pulling

402
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. What do you make of that? And where

403
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 2: within the kind of economic indicators is Donald Trump still

404
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 2: clearly ahead, knowing he has been trying hard to campaign

405
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:09,120
Speaker 2: on this issue.

406
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 10: Well, I mean, the biggest thing going for Donald Trump

407
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 10: is the fact that the voter's perceptions of how the

408
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,280
Speaker 10: economy is performing haven't really changed very much. I mean,

409
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 10: when Joe Biden was in the race, seventy two percent

410
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 10: said it was on the wrong track. Now sixty nine

411
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 10: percent say that the folks who see prices as increasing

412
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 10: across the swing state map have not improved. That's clearly

413
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:36,400
Speaker 10: an advantage for Donald Trump. What Kamala Harris has seen,

414
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 10: she is not totally associated with Joe Biden's being in

415
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,320
Speaker 10: the White House as one might expect. I mean, she

416
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 10: has seen her trust over Donald Trump in a better

417
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 10: place than Joe Biden's was when it comes to the economy,

418
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 10: I think she had Donald Trump's lead on the economy

419
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 10: and our swing state tracking. It's not just the economy,

420
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,440
Speaker 10: by the way, I mean, we're seeing that about every

421
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:04,440
Speaker 10: single issue. Voters are much happier about her. They're disassociating

422
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 10: her with the negativity that she is they associated with

423
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,679
Speaker 10: with Joe Biden. You're right about Kamala Harris on issues

424
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 10: like housing, that's clearly a good issue for Democrats this year.

425
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 10: If Donald Trump can focus on the inflation issue, though,

426
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 10: there is wide appetite among the swing side elector for

427
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,440
Speaker 10: him to talk about that. The problem with his campaign,

428
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 10: this has been the problem since he's been on the

429
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 10: political stage. He gets sent to side shows. I mean,

430
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,919
Speaker 10: he spent the week fighting with Arlington National Cemetery this week.

431
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 10: That's not going to be a winning message for intelectorate

432
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:36,120
Speaker 10: Hungary for answers about.

433
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 2: Inflation, well, and maybe we'll get more of those answers

434
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 2: leading up to the debate or on the debate stage

435
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 2: on September tenth. Eli. If we consider the kind of

436
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 2: themes we're likely to hear from these candidates, and frankly,

437
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 2: we heard Kamala Harris sitting many of these themes, including

438
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 2: housing in the middle class. Last night in that interview

439
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 2: on CNN. Something else that she has talked a lot

440
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 2: about and really dominated the convention in Chicago last week

441
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 2: is this idea around freedoms, not just reproductive freedom, but

442
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 2: others as well. And it was striking to see here

443
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,640
Speaker 2: Swing state voters trust her on that issue as well,

444
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 2: by a five point margin. This is kind of a

445
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 2: departure of the way that Democrats and Republicans usually can

446
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 2: lay claim to the freedom issue.

447
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 10: I know, I spent so much time in the early

448
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 10: twenty tens of Tea party rallies talking about freedom with

449
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,439
Speaker 10: a bunch of conservatives. I think that Kamala Harris has

450
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 10: done a lot of work, maybe with Beyonce's help, to

451
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 10: try to reclaim the mantle of freedom for the Democratic Party.

452
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 10: I think a lot of that discussion has been centered

453
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 10: around abortion rights, and that is a big issue for

454
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 10: a number of swing state voters. It's not the number

455
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 10: one issue for a lot of people, but it is

456
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,199
Speaker 10: for a number of people those are core kind of

457
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 10: Democratic voters, and her advantage on that issue is massive.

458
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 10: She leads Trump by twenty one points on that issue

459
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 10: that's clearly a good issue for her, and I think

460
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 10: we've seen a lot of coverage recently of Donald Trump

461
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,360
Speaker 10: realizing it's not a good issue for him. I think

462
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 10: it's been very clear since the Supreme Court overturns the

463
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,400
Speaker 10: Roe v. Wade a worship rights that Donald Trump has

464
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 10: been not wanting to engage on that issue as much

465
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 10: as possible. I think that Democrats. I think that the

466
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 10: state of Florida is going to make it where he's

467
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 10: going to have to. And I think that's going to

468
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 10: be a topic of discussion at the debate where we're

469
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 10: really going to see some news developed.

470
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:21,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, Donald Trump not really ready with an answer yet

471
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 2: as to how exactly he's voting on that six week

472
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 2: abortion issue in Florida, where of course he will be

473
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 2: casting his vote. I do want to ask finally, Eli,

474
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 2: because we've talked a lot about the people leading the ticket,

475
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 2: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, but they do have running

476
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:37,679
Speaker 2: mates who have been out there. Tim Walls was with

477
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 2: her in that interview on CNN last night. This of

478
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 2: course is a poll done now that we know that

479
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:47,640
Speaker 2: he is running beside her, how is Walls factoring into

480
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 2: the calculus for Harris and Jade Vance for Trump for

481
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:51,440
Speaker 2: that matter.

482
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 10: Well, Tim Walls is very popular. I think Kamala Harris,

483
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 10: who's also very popular, more popular than Joe Biden or

484
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 10: Donald Trum have been since we started tracking this back

485
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 10: in twenty twenty two. Tim Walls pretty much matches her popularity.

486
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 10: I think that makes him a very good campaign asset.

487
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,360
Speaker 10: And it's with all sorts of groups. It's with men,

488
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 10: it's with women, it's Withers or colors with white people.

489
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 10: Tim Wallas is a good asset. Jady Vance, I don't

490
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 10: know how much his candidacy probably matters here. I mean,

491
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 10: Donald Trump steals the show. It is a Trump show

492
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 10: when they're out and about. The little asides get a

493
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 10: lot of attention online. Some of his Jady Vance's campaign missteps,

494
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:33,360
Speaker 10: I don't know that those are going to like rock

495
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 10: the world here, given that Donald Trump is at the

496
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 10: top of the ticket. But on the other side of

497
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 10: the ballot, I mean, Kamala Harris found a good running

498
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 10: mate who can be an asset on the campaign trail,

499
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 10: and Governor Tim Walls.

500
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 2: All right, and we expect we'll hear more from both

501
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 2: of them, like we did last night. Throughout the course

502
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 2: of the next sixty some days. Same goes for Donald

503
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 2: Trump and Jadie Vance. And we'll be hearing, of course,

504
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 2: more from Elio Oakley. I'm sure we still have two

505
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 2: polls to go this election cycle will have We're in September,

506
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 2: in October, Elioakley of Morning Consult, thank you so much

507
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 2: for joining me, and I'll be joined now by our

508
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 2: political panel. I want to get some more reaction to

509
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 2: this data. Genie Shanzo is with me. She's political science

510
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 2: professor at Iona University and Senior Democracy Fellow at the

511
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 2: Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Together

512
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 2: to get today with Lisa Kamussa Miller, former RNC communications

513
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 2: director and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Lisa, just

514
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 2: to come to you on that ending note there the

515
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 2: idea of the role that the vice presidential candidates, the

516
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 2: running mates are playing here now that we are more

517
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 2: than a month out from the selection of JD. Vance,

518
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 2: we're only weeks out at this point from the selection

519
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 2: of Tim Walls. How do you view whether or not

520
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 2: they're adding or detracting to the tickets they're representing.

521
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:49,639
Speaker 8: You know, it's interesting to me for both sides. Really

522
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,400
Speaker 8: Donald Trump and what was just what you all were

523
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,160
Speaker 8: just discussing is absolutely true. Donald Trump is Donald Trump,

524
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 8: and he is probably bigger than life in all of

525
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 8: those circumstances.

526
00:26:58,560 --> 00:26:58,920
Speaker 9: So jd.

527
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 8: Vance, while not really making very much of an impact

528
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,919
Speaker 8: one way where the other not necessarily detracting from him

529
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 8: because people are really voting for Trump. But on the

530
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 8: Democrat side, it's actually quite interesting. I think that what's

531
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 8: interesting to me as we look at this ticket is

532
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,439
Speaker 8: that we're getting to know both of these candidates at

533
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 8: the very same time. And Tim Walls is very likable

534
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 8: as it relates to just the way he he approaches

535
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 8: the audiences and the groups that he's connecting with, the

536
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 8: people that he's speaking with. He's very authentic. And that

537
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 8: is the difference between those two number two candidates is

538
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 8: that JD. Vance, I think, is still trying to figure

539
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 8: out who he is and Tim Walls very much knows

540
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 8: who he is and what his brand is, and so

541
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 8: that's kind of interesting. But more than ever, I mean,

542
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 8: I think that we're meeting Kamala Harris and Tim Walls

543
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 8: at the same time, whereas we know who Donald Trump

544
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 8: is and we really don't really know very much about jd.

545
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 8: Vance other than sort of what we've read and what

546
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 8: we see. The two of them together are very different

547
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 8: but also very similar. And that regardless, people are voting

548
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 8: for the number one candidate, but the number two on

549
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 8: the Democrat side, I think is very much helping more

550
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 8: than JD Vance is helping Donald Trump.

551
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,120
Speaker 2: Well, so to this point, Genie, of course, we did

552
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: this poll knowing Tim Walls was running with Kamala Harrison.

553
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 2: When he was selected, everybody was like, Okay, well he's

554
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 2: from Minnesota. He has that Midwestern appeal that could work

555
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 2: in the rest belt. He also had a rural upbringing

556
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:21,199
Speaker 2: and was a gun owner and things that may be

557
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 2: able to help resonate in other areas. To what extent

558
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 2: do you think that is actually showing up in these

559
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,640
Speaker 2: polls across the string states with that eight point margin

560
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 2: in Wisconsin, for example, and frankly the lead Harris now

561
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 2: has in Georgia North Carolina, you.

562
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,439
Speaker 6: Know, I think it can be showing up, particularly in

563
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:41,959
Speaker 6: a place like Wisconsin, his neighboring state. Traditionally, all of

564
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 6: our research shows that vice president's as much attention as

565
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 6: we give them on the ballot don't make that much

566
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 6: of a difference. So I'm not sure it's making that

567
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 6: much of a difference now. But what I would say is,

568
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 6: you have to imagine what if Donald Trump hadn't had

569
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 6: to choose JD. Vance before Harris was at the top

570
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 6: of the ticket, if he had gone with somebody else,

571
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 6: you know, JD. Vancy doubled down on the far right

572
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 6: of the party. If he had gone with saying Nicky

573
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 6: Haley or even somebody unlike at Tulsa Gabbard or somebody else,

574
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 6: how different this election might be, particularly in issues involving

575
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 6: women and women's reproductive health. So, you know, I think

576
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 6: before Donald Trump had, you know, the misfortune of having

577
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 6: to make a decision before he knew who he was opposing,

578
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 6: and I dare say he would have gone in a

579
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 6: different direction given the issues he's confronting now with Kamala Harris.

580
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 2: Well on just the idea of the issues and what

581
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 2: Donald Trump has continually brought up in his attacks against

582
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris, not the personal ones, but the policy ones,

583
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 2: issues like the border and of course the economy. We've

584
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 2: spoken about how this poll does show that Harris is

585
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 2: pulling better on some economic elements like housing in the

586
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 2: middle class than Donald Trump is at this point, Lisa,

587
00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 2: If that is true, where are the best messaging areas

588
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,960
Speaker 2: for Donald Trump to hit her on. Is it still

589
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 2: going to be the economy or does this suggest maybe

590
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 2: he just needs to double down on the border or

591
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 2: something else.

592
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 8: Well, I mean Keilly to the point that I think

593
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 8: Geni just made. And to add on to what I

594
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 8: said earlier, this is a base election. Each one of

595
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 8: them picked a candidate for their number two that very

596
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 8: much speaks to the base of the various parties, and

597
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 8: so regardless of whether it's immigration, or it's the economy

598
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 8: or anything else, each one of those candidates on either

599
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 8: side of the aisle will have to talk about issues

600
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 8: that will motivate and excite the base to get out

601
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 8: and vote. And so yes, I think that immigration is

602
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 8: one that continues to motivate and get the base out.

603
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 8: On the Republican side, talking about economic issues for each

604
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 8: one of them is very, very important. This is absolutely

605
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 8: going to come down to turnout, and it's going to

606
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 8: come down to support because there is such a slim,

607
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 8: slim margin of people that are undecided and haven't figured

608
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 8: out who they want to support that They're going to

609
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 8: have to figure out a way to talk about the

610
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 8: issues as it relates to immigration, the economy, or otherwise

611
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 8: in a way that appeals not only to who the

612
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 8: people that are already coming out for them, but that slim,

613
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 8: slim margin. And that's going to be very difficult for

614
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 8: either one of them, because until they can figure that,

615
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 8: whoever figures that out, Kelly is the one who's going

616
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 8: to win, all right.

617
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 2: Lisa Camussa Miller and Jeanie Schanzeno my political panel. Today.

618
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

619
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern onmo car Play and

620
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 1: then broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

621
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

622
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

623
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 2: We are still assessing the first sit down to interview

624
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 2: from Vice President Kamala Harrison she became the Democratic nominee

625
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 2: for president. She of course sat down for a conversation

626
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 2: on CNN last night alongside her running mate Tim Waltz.

627
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 2: She was faced with a number of questions surrounding policy,

628
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 2: from domestic issues like the border and the economy, to

629
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 2: foreign policy. One specifically, when it comes to Israel and

630
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 2: the ongoing war in Gaza. This is of course something

631
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 2: that many progressives have strong feelings about. Kamala Harris does

632
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 2: seem to be getting more slack from that wing of

633
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 2: the Democratic Party on this issue than the president she

634
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 2: has served with for the last three and a half years.

635
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 2: Joe Biden seen as someone who potentially is more sympathetic

636
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 2: to the Palestinian cause, but she made it clear in

637
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 2: the interview last night that she would not support in

638
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 2: Israel arms in Bargo, which is something some are calling for.

639
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 2: She talked about the need to continue to stand for

640
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 2: Israel's defense, but she also pushed a ceasefire deal that

641
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 2: she would like to see happen between Israel and Hamas.

642
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 4: We have got to get a deal done. We were

643
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 4: in Doha. We have to get a deal done. This

644
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 4: war must end and we must get a deal. That

645
00:32:56,560 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 4: is about getting the hostages out. I've met with the

646
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 4: families of the American hostages. Let's get the hostages out.

647
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 4: Let's get the ceasefire done.

648
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 2: So for more on whether that ceasefire could get done

649
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 2: in the state of play in the Middle East. Brigadier

650
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 2: General retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt is with me now.

651
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 2: He of course, was in the US Army, former Assistant

652
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 2: Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs and former Deputy

653
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:24,479
Speaker 2: Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs. Welcome back

654
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 2: to Bloomberg, Sour. Appreciate you joining us. Obviously, the ceasefire

655
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 2: negotiations have been on going for some time now, and

656
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 2: despite the US occasionally expressing optimism, it doesn't seem there's

657
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 2: been much forward movement on what remains the key sticking point,

658
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 2: which is whether or not it will mean a permanent

659
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 2: Israel pull out of Gaza in terms of the military

660
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 2: presence there. Do you really think we're getting any closer

661
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 2: to the moment where the Israeli government's going to be

662
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 2: willing to agree to that.

663
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 7: I really don't think so, because the proposal that's been

664
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 7: put forth right now from the Israelis is that they

665
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 7: have a resident force remaining inside of Gaza, one force

666
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:08,080
Speaker 7: which is guarding a line that blocks North Gaza from

667
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 7: South gazip Gaza City and Communis would be separated. They're

668
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 7: also looking at retaining a force along what is known

669
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 7: as the Philadelphia Corridor, which separates Gossip from Egypt. Because

670
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 7: of concerns with regards to the tunneling that is being

671
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 7: done by Hamas. So it's hard to see that either

672
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 7: side is either willing and candidate at this point able

673
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 7: to agree to a cease fire that would also include

674
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,440
Speaker 7: the return of the hostages. So I think we're just

675
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,839
Speaker 7: going to see no breakthroughs anytime soon.

676
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,240
Speaker 2: Well, we are going to see, though, it seems, breaks

677
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 2: in the fighting, at least for short periods of time.

678
00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 2: Over the course of three days beginning on September first,

679
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 2: the Unta said Israel has agreed to that in order

680
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 2: to provide polio vaccines to the young population in Gaza.

681
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 2: Israel has said very clearly this is not the start

682
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 2: of a wider seaspire. But part of the conversation we'd

683
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:08,840
Speaker 2: had around the initial seaspire much closer to October seventh,

684
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:10,720
Speaker 2: that we saw when we were still in the earlier

685
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,240
Speaker 2: days of this conflict, was whether or not it allowed

686
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 2: Hamas breaks in the fighting allowed Hamas to kind of

687
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:20,279
Speaker 2: recalibrate and reconstitute themselves. Do you think there's an opportunity

688
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 2: for that, or how depleted is Hamas now that they

689
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 2: may not even be able to do that in short

690
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 2: windows of.

691
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 7: Time well, first of all, Hamas has demonstrated a tenacity

692
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 7: which I think surprises everybody. And when you're talking about reconstituting,

693
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 7: that doesn't really take a lot of effort on the

694
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 7: part of Hamas because the remaining resonant forces that they

695
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 7: have are pretty well hunkered down in the tunnels primarily.

696
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 7: But it's also important to note that that couple of

697
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 7: days allows Israel to reconstitute some of this forces, not

698
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 7: necessarily to go back into Gasa or to continue fighting

699
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 7: in Gaza, but to get them up to the northern

700
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 7: border because of the worries and concerns about a ground

701
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 7: operation either coming into or going from Lebanon, an attack

702
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 7: by his bull or an attack by the Israelis into Lebanon,

703
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,479
Speaker 7: So that gives them time. Their troops are pretty worn

704
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 7: out as well, and if Israel wants to take on

705
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 7: or is forced to take on his Bullah, they're going

706
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 7: to need some reconstitution time as well.

707
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 4: Well.

708
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,880
Speaker 2: While we watched the border with Lebanon, we're also watching

709
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,399
Speaker 2: Sir the West Bank as Israel this week has begun

710
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 2: operations there. They killed five Palestinian gunmen there yesterday. It's

711
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 2: been described as was the strike against the Hesbola targets

712
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 2: over this past weekend as something that is preemptive. They're

713
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 2: trying to ward off eminent threats. But could the preemptive

714
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 2: action still be something that is escalatory.

715
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 7: Oh, certainly. In fact, the great concern that a lot

716
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 7: of people have, including myself, as all these preemptive actions

717
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:59,879
Speaker 7: put Hamas his Bullah, the West Bank, the Hashid, the Hoho,

718
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 7: these in a position where their pride requires them to

719
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 7: respond to these preemptive attacks, and we might find ourselves

720
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 7: spiraling out of control through either miscalculation, misperception, or just

721
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 7: some mischief on the ground by some of the antagonists.

722
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 7: So yes, it's important to have preemptive attacks when absolutely necessary.

723
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 7: There's a question about where that bar is right now

724
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 7: between preemptive and overly preemptive.

725
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 2: Well, and of course we're still awaiting the Iranian retaliation

726
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:39,840
Speaker 2: for the killing of the Hamas political leader in Tehran

727
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:44,399
Speaker 2: earlier this summer that still hasn't materialized. Sir, I want

728
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 2: to ask you about something else as well, because it

729
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 2: is August thirtieth, we are marking today three years since

730
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:53,320
Speaker 2: the official pullout of the United States forces from Afghanistan.

731
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 2: Of course, a withdrawal that was in many ways chaotic

732
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 2: and of course left thirteen members dead. When we consider

733
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 2: the suicide bombing at the airport, which Donald Trump was

734
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 2: marking earlier this week, to what extent the conversation we're

735
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 2: now having about the Middle East, to what extent is

736
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 2: that shaped by the events of three years ago. When

737
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 2: Donald Trump suggests that it was the withdrawal from Afghanistan

738
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 2: that has precipitated a lot of the conflict we have

739
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 2: seen in the year since, do you think that's a

740
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 2: fair statement.

741
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 7: I would question the linkage between what happened in Afghanistan

742
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 7: and what happened what is happening in Gaza. However, I

743
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 7: don't think there's any doubt that the Shambalic withdrawal from

744
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 7: Afghanistan in bold In bladmir Plutin to conduct the attack

745
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 7: into Ukraine. I think there's more direct linkage between Afghanistan

746
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:48,320
Speaker 7: and Ukraine than there is between Afghanistan and Gaza.

747
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 2: Okay, so you do see some linkage there. What is

748
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 2: the linkage then, to what's happening in Ukraine? This is

749
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:00,120
Speaker 2: primarily a Russia thing.

750
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 7: Well, I think the most important thing is that President

751
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 7: Putin may have perceived that there would not be an

752
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,839
Speaker 7: American response in America was tired of fighting in these

753
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 7: quote endless wars, that twenty years after fighting in Iraq,

754
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 7: in Afghanistan, the United States and for that matter, native

755
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 7: nations wouldn't come to the assistance of Ukraine if it

756
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 7: was intact, And so he may have put into his

757
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 7: calculations that a very low probability that a country that

758
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 7: would run away from Afghanistan would be willing to stand

759
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 7: behind Ukraine. And as it turns out, of Vladimir Putin

760
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 7: was wrong.

761
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 2: Well, certainly he may have been wrong about Joe Biden,

762
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 2: But do you think Vladimir Putin would be as wrong

763
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 2: in that if Donald Trump becomes president once again, do

764
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 2: you believe that Donald Trump won't walk away from Ukraine.

765
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 7: I think President Trump, if he is re elected, will

766
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 7: be looking for a negotiated settlement. I'm not sure that

767
00:39:56,840 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 7: Ukraine will like the terms of that. This war has

768
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 7: gone on for quite a few years, and both sides

769
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 7: seemed to be wearing down, and I think anybody at

770
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 7: this point would want to see some sort of an

771
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 7: end to the conflict. The question, of course, is what

772
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 7: are the terms of that conflict? Termination, who is advantaged

773
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 7: by that, who wins, who declares victory? I think what

774
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 7: Donald Trump is saying is that he can find a

775
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:29,879
Speaker 7: middle ground, that, as Senator Aikens said about Vietnam, they

776
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 7: can both just declare victory and go home.

777
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,280
Speaker 2: Well, of course, we did learn today that Vladimir Lensky,

778
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 2: the Ukrainian President, is planning to pitch another peace summit

779
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 2: in India and wants to talk with Joe Biden next

780
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:46,400
Speaker 2: month the UN General Assembly about a path to ending

781
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:48,439
Speaker 2: this war. I do, though, sir, I want to ask

782
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 2: you something else about Donald Trump. Of course, when he

783
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 2: was marking the three year anniversary of the deaths of

784
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:57,280
Speaker 2: thirteen service members earlier this week, he was at Arlington Cemetery,

785
00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 2: he was in Section sixty, in an area where photography

786
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 2: is not allowed, especially for political purposes. And we understand,

787
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 2: based on a report on the matter from the Defense Department,

788
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 2: that a Trump aid actually shoved, although the Trump campaign

789
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 2: maintains that this was not a physical altercation, shoved someone

790
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 2: who was trying to get them to stop taking photographs.

791
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 2: So how does that reflect on someone who's trying, once

792
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 2: again to be commander in chief.

793
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 7: Well, I think we do a forensic examination of what happened.

794
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,839
Speaker 7: First of all, I think it's certainly within his prerogative

795
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,359
Speaker 7: and in many ways he should honor the families that

796
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:38,399
Speaker 7: lost their troops inside of Afghanistan at the Abbey Gate

797
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:41,880
Speaker 7: and elsewhere. He did come at the request of the families,

798
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:46,359
Speaker 7: but there is a concern that he may have gone

799
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 7: over the line, probably did go over the line, or

800
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:51,359
Speaker 7: his campaign ads went over the aids went over the

801
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:55,720
Speaker 7: line when this went from being a event to console

802
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 7: the families to an event that possibly could show up

803
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 7: in a campaign ad. It's great when president's, former presidents,

804
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 7: anybody goes and honors are dead troops that have given

805
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:09,479
Speaker 7: so much, But when they want to leverage that into

806
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 7: campaign advantage and use that on the campaign trail, I

807
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 7: think that's when he has gone over the line, and

808
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 7: either he in planning it or he in his campaign

809
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:25,239
Speaker 7: ads taking advantage of it. This Arlington is not a

810
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:30,720
Speaker 7: place that should be used for campaign ads. As people say,

811
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 7: you can't come into Arlington by request, You only come

812
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 7: in there because you've served this country.

813
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:46,359
Speaker 2: On the finally, sir, on the subject of service, because

814
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 2: that is something else that has arisen in this campaign

815
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 2: when it comes to Kamala Harris's running mate Tim Wallas,

816
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:53,800
Speaker 2: who of course served more than twenty years in the

817
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 2: National Guard, did not, however, deploy to an active combat zone,

818
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 2: despite his suggestion that he wants Harriet a weapon of

819
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 2: war in war. He was asked about that on CNN

820
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 2: last night. He talked about his misuse of proper grammar. Essentially,

821
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 2: were you satisfied by the answer you got from the

822
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 2: governor of Minnesota?

823
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 7: Listen, I don't want to take an opinion on that.

824
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 7: He has been a great public servant over the years,

825
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 7: both in the National Guard and in the school system.

826
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 7: His motivations for why he retired at that time, fully

827
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 7: understanding if not having a deployment order, but certainly understanding

828
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:36,319
Speaker 7: that his unit probably would have been deployed. What went

829
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 7: on in his mind at that time. I think he

830
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 7: is the only one that can answer that. And again,

831
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 7: I just don't like it when military service and military

832
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 7: funerals are used for political purposes. That whole subject and

833
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 7: that whole issue should be not personalized, nor should be politicized.

834
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 7: Or service members served this country, they don't serve political parties,

835
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 7: So let's get that out of the conversation as we

836
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 7: go into the election season.

837
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 2: All right, wise words, appreciate your perspective, sir, Thank you

838
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 2: so much for joining this. Retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt,

839
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 2: appreciate your time.

840
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

841
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

842
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:28,959
Speaker 1: royd Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

843
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

844
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

845
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 2: Thank you so much. I'm Kaylee Liones here in Washington.

846
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:43,320
Speaker 2: Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

847
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 2: That's right, Labor Day weekend is upon us. We just

848
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 2: have a few working hours to go before the holiday weekend,

849
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 2: in which a lot of people will be traveling, if

850
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 2: the forecasts are to be leaved, many of them of course,

851
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 2: traveling by car. And the good news I guess for

852
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 2: drivers is that gas prices are lower going into this

853
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,959
Speaker 2: Labor Day, and then they were this holiday weekend last year.

854
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:05,240
Speaker 2: Of course, back then we were looking at three eighty

855
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 2: and above on the average triple a gas price across

856
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 2: the country. Now, as we stand here at the end

857
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:15,320
Speaker 2: of August, three dollars and thirty five cents a gallon

858
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:16,879
Speaker 2: is what you'll pay at the pump. But we want

859
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 2: to get into the dynamics we're seeing in gasoline prices

860
00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 2: a little bit more as we look ahead to this

861
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,360
Speaker 2: holiday and the course beyond it, a presidential election in

862
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:26,719
Speaker 2: which prices of the pump could matter quite a lot.

863
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 2: So we turn now to Patrick d'han. He is gas

864
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:32,959
Speaker 2: Buddy's head of petroleum analysis. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV

865
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 2: and Radio. Patrick, always great to have you. So we

866
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 2: look obviously at the average labor day weekend price being

867
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:42,279
Speaker 2: down nearly fifty cents from last year. Is this the

868
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 2: trajectory that you see continuing once the summer driving season

869
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:46,839
Speaker 2: officially comes to an.

870
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 11: End, Acale, I think it is a solid trajectory. As

871
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 11: you mentioned, price is almost fifty cents a gallon lower

872
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 11: than last year. That's a thirteen percent shopping block. And

873
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 11: while the disinflation is at gas line and diesel, it's

874
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 11: still not hitting other airs the economy, and that's why

875
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:03,759
Speaker 11: demand this summer has been relatively weak, and that's why

876
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 11: we expect that this downward trend will continue.

877
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 9: Got a little bit of a shot in the arm

878
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:09,120
Speaker 9: for that as well.

879
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:14,720
Speaker 11: Today OPEC rumored to be considering raising its production sticking

880
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:17,240
Speaker 11: with its plan, which is a bit of a surprise.

881
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 11: But we certainly could see more and more gas phrases

882
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 11: below the three dollars gallon mark. Gas Weddy data showing

883
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:26,479
Speaker 11: eight states where average gas pras are below three dollars

884
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:28,880
Speaker 11: a gallon for Labor Day. That number could double or

885
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 11: even triple by the time we get to Halloween or

886
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 11: into Thanksgiving.

887
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:36,839
Speaker 2: Okay, well, so that of course puts us if we're

888
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 2: talking Halloween just on the cusp of the presidential election.

889
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:42,600
Speaker 2: So where exactly do you think the average price will

890
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 2: be come November fifth, Patrick.

891
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 11: There's certainly a good possibility we could be just teetering

892
00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:51,439
Speaker 11: on the three dollars gallon mark, potentially falling below it. Now,

893
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 11: there are some contingencies and caveats, you could say, the

894
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 11: typical caveats apply. Hurricane season has been relatively quiet, but

895
00:46:58,600 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 11: we are in the prime. There are a couple of

896
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 11: areas of interest of the National Hurricane Centers monitoring, and

897
00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 11: of course the other wildcard the Middle East tensions right

898
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 11: now de escalating a bit but there's always the possibility

899
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:12,920
Speaker 11: that there could be new violence between Israel and Hamas.

900
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:15,320
Speaker 9: Or Hezbola or Iran, and so that could be a wildcard.

901
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 9: But I think there's a pretty solid.

902
00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:19,879
Speaker 11: Chance that, if not by Halloween, the national average could

903
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,360
Speaker 11: fall below the three dollars gal mark by Thanksgiving.

904
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 2: Well, that certainly is something to consider as we think

905
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 2: about the political consequences of that. On the subject of politics, there,

906
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 2: of course is an argument that's being made by Donald

907
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 2: Trump when he is talking about what he wants to

908
00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 2: do to get inflation down frequently Patrick's answer is drill, baby, drill.

909
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:42,800
Speaker 2: Of course, as we consider where prices are right now,

910
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 2: it is against a backdrop of record oil production in

911
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 2: the US. How much would drilling more, pumping more matter

912
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 2: actually to gasoline prices if we're still considering refining margins

913
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 2: here and frankly, oil companies by and large still have

914
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 2: tried to maintain capital discipline. They're not really seeking to

915
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 2: punt more.

916
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 9: Right, Yeah, Kaylee, exactly right.

917
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 11: It's taken a long time for us to reach this

918
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:09,399
Speaker 11: thirteen point three, thirteen point four million barrel the day

919
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:12,839
Speaker 11: territory really since COVID, and as you mentioned this has

920
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:16,719
Speaker 11: been a very calm, cool and collected environment that oil

921
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 11: producers have raised production. Now, keep in mind, on the

922
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:22,319
Speaker 11: other side of things, OPAK is getting a little bit

923
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:24,799
Speaker 11: while some OPEC members rather are getting a little bit

924
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 11: tired of those production cuts that OPEC announced last year,

925
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:30,959
Speaker 11: and so OPEK is poised to bring some of that back.

926
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:34,399
Speaker 11: The other wild card too for President Trump saying drill, baby,

927
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 11: drill again, the US is not a state owned oil company.

928
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 11: There's only so many incentives you can give oil companies

929
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 11: to do what would be against their interest and raising production,

930
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 11: which could potentially undermine the cost of oil and drive

931
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 11: it down.

932
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 9: The other factor that's really.

933
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 11: Interesting is Trump's potential play when it comes to tariffs,

934
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:57,959
Speaker 11: promising maybe twenty percent terriffs. Keep in mind, the US

935
00:48:58,000 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 11: produces millions of barrels a day oil from Canada. Those

936
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 11: tariffs could send gas prices skyrocketing in areas of the Midwest.

937
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:08,240
Speaker 11: If President Trump is serious.

938
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 2: Is there is there an equivalent twenty percent tariff cent

939
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 2: figure at the pump or a relationship between the two.

940
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 2: How much realistically do you think that could increase gas

941
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 2: prices in the worst case scenario, Well, you.

942
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:24,800
Speaker 11: Know, a twenty percent increase might today represent a fifteen

943
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:27,719
Speaker 11: dollars barrel jump. At fifteen dollars a barrel divided by

944
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 11: forty two is not an significant number that could boost

945
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 11: gas prices theoretically in the ballpark of fifteen to thirty

946
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:36,240
Speaker 11: five cents a gallon.

947
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 9: It would be contingent on season.

948
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,839
Speaker 11: The bigger increase, if the terraces were established, would be

949
00:49:40,880 --> 00:49:43,600
Speaker 11: when a gas lane demand is highest and when refineries

950
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 11: need to kick out supply.

951
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:46,880
Speaker 9: So that's not something small.

952
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:49,360
Speaker 11: And when we're talking about the difference between three dollars

953
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:52,839
Speaker 11: gas and two dollars and eighty cent gas, that could

954
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 11: be a differentiator there that President Trump may risk the

955
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:58,799
Speaker 11: ire of folks, especially in the Great Lakes, which is

956
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:01,680
Speaker 11: the market that that Canadian oil is the beneficiary to

957
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 11: Great Lakes refiners predominantly produce oil derived from Canadian crude,

958
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 11: so that could be problematic in areas of the Midwest.

959
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,600
Speaker 2: Well, I also have to consider as well when he's

960
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:17,520
Speaker 2: talking about tariffs well beyond twenty percent, potentially sixty percent

961
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 2: on all goods coming from China, which is obviously a

962
00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:23,800
Speaker 2: massive trade partner and can not only have recommendation ramifications

963
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 2: for the economy at home in terms of higher cost,

964
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 2: but could be very detrimental to China's own economy, which

965
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:30,719
Speaker 2: already is struggling. How much of the lower prices we're

966
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 2: seeing patrick are because of weakness in the second largest economy.

967
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:37,839
Speaker 11: Certainly a big portion of the discussion this year has

968
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:40,319
Speaker 11: been a lack of consumption in China, where they're likely

969
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:44,439
Speaker 11: continuing to fill their strategic reserve, and once that's done,

970
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:46,680
Speaker 11: if their economy can't get off the ground.

971
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 9: We could be looking at a real struggle for crude oil.

972
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 11: And that's why it's interesting that OPEC would be choosing

973
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 11: now to potentially raise production. The US economy may start

974
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 11: to improve, but in China it's been a difficult guessing

975
00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:00,839
Speaker 11: game on throwing things at the wall and to see

976
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:01,360
Speaker 11: what will.

977
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 9: Boost the Chinese economy.

978
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 11: Nothing's really worked just yet, so you know, if China

979
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 11: remains in this economic slowdown, it's going to.

980
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 9: Have a profound impact on oil moving forward. Arguably it could.

981
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:13,640
Speaker 11: Offset the potential impact from some of these terrafts that

982
00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:15,280
Speaker 11: Trump head outlined.

983
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 1: Well.

984
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:18,880
Speaker 2: Of course, as we consider what China is doing to

985
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 2: stimulate its own economy, there could be more stimulative monetary

986
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:25,080
Speaker 2: policy coming in the US pretty soon. The FED is

987
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:28,640
Speaker 2: expected to cut rates in September, and if markets are

988
00:51:28,680 --> 00:51:30,600
Speaker 2: to be believed, they could cut a whole one hundred

989
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,719
Speaker 2: basis points by the time the year is over. Do

990
00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 2: you expect that there's going to be a demand translation

991
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,600
Speaker 2: from lower rates when it comes to prices of the

992
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:39,120
Speaker 2: pumps or if this is happening in the fall and

993
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:41,560
Speaker 2: winter seasons, will it not matter as much?

994
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:46,080
Speaker 11: Yeah, it probably won't be as significant as cutting rates

995
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:48,719
Speaker 11: or having lower rates in a more conducive environment a

996
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 11: spring or summer when Americans are feeling much better about

997
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:54,239
Speaker 11: getting out because of low interest rates. I think that

998
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:56,239
Speaker 11: would be the primary time of year that there would

999
00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:59,120
Speaker 11: be a windfall when it comes to gasoline demand. Right now,

1000
00:51:59,200 --> 00:52:01,839
Speaker 11: with schools reopening, Americans or back to the grind, back

1001
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:05,960
Speaker 11: to their normal Monday through Friday commute, and there's not

1002
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:07,840
Speaker 11: a whole lot of uptick now. It could mean some

1003
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:10,680
Speaker 11: Americans feel better. They may take some fall road trips

1004
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 11: and foliage color tours. But I think there's a lot

1005
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 11: more opportunity next spring and summer. Should the economy slow down,

1006
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 11: Americans may start to feel better about their prospects, and

1007
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 11: that could raise demand going into twenty twenty five.

1008
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:27,879
Speaker 2: All Right, Patrick, really appreciate the analysis. Graace to have

1009
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 2: you on this Labor Day weekend. E. Patrick dehunt is

1010
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:33,799
Speaker 2: gas Buddy's head of petroleum analysis.

1011
00:52:36,040 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 11: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

1012
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:41,560
Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple,

1013
00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:42,239
Speaker 3: Spotify

1014
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:44,919
Speaker 10: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1015
00:52:44,960 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 10: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

1016
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:49,960
Speaker 10: at Bloomberg dot com.