Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros podcast. It's
Speaker 1: time to place your bets for the MLB's future markets.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and today I am joined
Speaker 1: by some sensational baseball betters to revisit the MLB future odds,
Speaker 1: including the host of Leading Off and a guy who
Speaker 1: has a litany of big league players on speed dial,
Speaker 1: Chris Welsh, Akad Welsh Welsh. Thanks for taking time of
Speaker 1: your busy, important schedule to be here with us today.
Speaker 1: How are you.
Speaker 2: I'm doing great.
Speaker 3: You am very busy schedule hanging out with my dear
Speaker 3: friend Jackson Merrill, or last night hanging out with very
Speaker 3: dear friend Clayton Kershaw. Anyone on the backfields becomes a
Speaker 3: very very good friend of mine all around the baseball world.
Speaker 3: We're glad to talk, hopefully not about those guys, but
Speaker 3: some good bets.
Speaker 1: Absolutely. Also joining us is the top arm in our
Speaker 1: fantasy baseball bullpen, Joe Rico. Joe, Great to see you.
Speaker 1: How are things north of the border as summer approaches?
Speaker 4: Thanks for going pretty well, Seth. Great to do with
Speaker 4: this show with you guys. I've been looking forward to it.
Speaker 4: Some interesting players are going to be discussing today, I
Speaker 4: get to mention one of my favor a couple of
Speaker 4: my favorite players actually, so I'm not going to.
Speaker 5: Keep the people waiting. Let's just dive into it.
Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, as Joe and Welsh mentioned today's show, it
Speaker 1: does look like this. We'll revisit the fallowing betting markets,
Speaker 1: MVP CY young season win totals, to make the playoffs,
Speaker 1: division winners, World series winners, and of course our favorite
Speaker 1: long shot futures. And before we get going, big shout
Speaker 1: to everyone who's joining us either on the Betting Pros
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Speaker 1: us is give this video a thumbs up if you
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Speaker 1: MLB YouTube channel. Well, you guys have been busy, to
Speaker 1: say the least, over there on that channel this year.
Speaker 3: Just as the lead, a lot of content out there
Speaker 3: on the Fantasy Pro side. You can see behind me
Speaker 3: on there, but make sure check out twelve pm Eastern
Speaker 3: Monday through Friday, we are on the live Met and
Speaker 3: Joe piece of PA for leading off where we do
Speaker 3: do some bets every single day for everybody, and then
Speaker 3: we got lots of other content for the fantasy side.
Speaker 3: But we got your betting covered and we got it
Speaker 3: right here.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go ahead and jump into the MVP
Speaker 1: picks in the L. In the NL, you can actually
Speaker 1: get show hey Otani add a better number plus two
Speaker 1: twenty five then you could preseason. And we also have
Speaker 1: some new challengers in the mix, including Kyle Tucker plus
Speaker 1: four twenty five, Corby and Carrol your guy Welsh plus
Speaker 1: six fifty and for Neando Tatis Junior plus seven to
Speaker 1: fifty as the only MVP candidates below ten to one.
Speaker 1: On the AL side of things, the books are saying
Speaker 1: us all but over right now, with Aaron Judge moving
Speaker 1: from plus three to ten as a favorite preseason to
Speaker 1: minus nine hundred after a blazing hot start. Welsh with
Speaker 1: this said, you already had a Bobbywitt Junior ticket in
Speaker 1: your back pocket. So are you staying in the AL
Speaker 1: or you're going elsewhere with your MVP value.
Speaker 3: We're gonna talk about the NL here, though, I will
Speaker 3: say this, if de Penning, what type of better you are?
Speaker 3: If you're going to be like value, If you're looking
Speaker 3: for what is my best potential value ROI return on investment?
Speaker 2: The al is ripe for it.
Speaker 3: Anything could happen, Judge could pair back, there could be
Speaker 3: an injury, and then all of a sudden, pretty much
Speaker 3: anybody you get on the ticket is going to start
Speaker 3: probably getting you into a cash out period. So a
Speaker 3: guy like Bobby Witt, who's the power, has been kind
Speaker 3: of down, but the batting average is still up. The
Speaker 3: offense is just starting to pick up. For the Royals,
Speaker 3: it's probably not a bad time anybody you can get
Speaker 3: more than ten to one, which is the entire al
Speaker 3: makes sense. Where I'm going to go, though, is I
Speaker 3: got to go to show Heyo Tani and I think
Speaker 3: that this is boring. I'm not as much of a like,
Speaker 3: go and get me the coolest, funnest twelve to one
Speaker 3: type of odds and let's see what happens.
Speaker 2: I'm looking at this.
Speaker 3: And I'm going this is the best odds that we
Speaker 3: are going to see, and we have seen on show
Speaker 3: Heyo Tani. If he starts pitching, that's going to open
Speaker 3: up the market. It's still the Dodgers. There's a lot
Speaker 3: of guys competing. But when you're getting close to three
Speaker 3: to one on a show Heyo Tani ticket. I mean,
Speaker 3: I guess it's closer to two to one either way.
Speaker 3: Plus money on Otani, it's got to be a bet.
Speaker 3: So I think that's an easy one to jump into.
Speaker 3: Ten homers, ten stolen bases. He's hitting a most three hundred.
Speaker 3: RBIs have been really low this season. That's going to
Speaker 3: pick up. And just if we're you know, looking at
Speaker 3: the profile of Otani, it's ridiculous. It's top like two
Speaker 3: percent tel across the league in his hitting metrics, So
Speaker 3: I expect the homers to fly. He's still going to
Speaker 3: be stealing bases and those RBI numbers are going to
Speaker 3: come up. And as the Dodgers keep winning games, Bam,
Speaker 3: it's a nice little two to one ticket. If I
Speaker 3: were playing it a little bit higher, I think the
Speaker 3: NL is ripe with some fun bets. Okay, A Rico's
Speaker 3: got a good one. Corbyn Carroll does stand out to me.
Speaker 3: HOMERSM is sad, Yes, I got Corbyn. Carroll's like right
Speaker 3: above me in a jersey, So there's a little bit
Speaker 3: of that. But at five and a half to one,
Speaker 3: Corbyn's been putting.
Speaker 2: Up an MVP like season.
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not even sure that that's debatable. He's
Speaker 3: changed his swing, He's changed his approach. He no longer
Speaker 3: has some of those bad holes that he had in
Speaker 3: his swing. He's up to two eighty eight. He just
Speaker 3: went through a little bad spell. But the hitting profile
Speaker 3: also looks phenomenal. Ten homers, big homers, stolen bases have
Speaker 3: been light. I think those are going to pick up
Speaker 3: Diamondbacks win games.
Speaker 2: He is crucial to that actual piece of being an MVP.
Speaker 3: But I'm a little bit worried about the ups and downs.
Speaker 3: But if you want a good price, I think Corbin Carolyn,
Speaker 3: what he could do for this Diamondback teams at five
Speaker 3: and a half to one is kind of a fun play.
Speaker 3: But Shoe Heyo Tani at a little over two to one.
Speaker 3: That is my smash play on MVP betting.
Speaker 1: Joe, you're going with a different horse in this MVP
Speaker 1: race for the NL. Who is it?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Welsh mentioned him, Fernando Tattis junior. Now the line
Speaker 4: that you mentioned, Seth is different than the one that
Speaker 4: I saw. You're better because the one that I saw
Speaker 4: was plus five hundred plus six hundred. But you said
Speaker 4: it was plus seven hundred plus seven to fifty, So
Speaker 4: it might be a better line out there if you
Speaker 4: want to be shopping around the books. But Frando Tattists
Speaker 4: Junior is kind of reminding me of what Ronald Acunya
Speaker 4: Junior did a couple of years ago. You know, there
Speaker 4: had been some doubt with both of them about what
Speaker 4: they're going to look like off of some relatively big injuries,
Speaker 4: and then they're coming in and destroying the world. Now,
Speaker 4: not quite to the same level as what Acuna was
Speaker 4: doing a couple of years ago, but through thirty four games,
Speaker 4: Tattis has eight homers, eight steals in a three twenty
Speaker 4: one batting average with a career best one to sixty
Speaker 4: four WRC plus. And you've seen kind of some of
Speaker 4: those Acunya type of things. He's striking out last, he's walking,
Speaker 4: or he's still making incredible contact fifty five percent hard
Speaker 4: hit in the sixteen percent barrel rate. He's kind of
Speaker 4: looking like he's on his way to maybe not quite
Speaker 4: forty forty but forty thirty, forty thirty five maybe. And
Speaker 4: I think that considering the odds you're getting, it is
Speaker 4: a worthwhile bet to place is he the most likely
Speaker 4: to win MVP. I think it's gonna be either him,
Speaker 4: Kyle Tucker Otawani. One of those guys is more than
Speaker 4: likely to get it. But I think you're getting the
Speaker 4: longest odds with tatis. That does make it a really
Speaker 4: appealing bet considering he has essentially been doing what the
Speaker 4: other guy's been doing. You're just getting longer odds on him,
Speaker 4: and he's a guy who has the pat agree. We've
Speaker 4: seen him put up massive seasons in the past, the
Speaker 4: forty two homer season in twenty twenty one, his MVP
Speaker 4: worthy twenty twenty three, The numbers weren't quite there, but
Speaker 4: we've seen this kind of season from him before. It
Speaker 4: does seem like a couple of years remove now from
Speaker 4: all the shoulder problems and the ped worries, that he
Speaker 4: is finally having his true breakout season, and it wouldn't
Speaker 4: surprise me at all to see him take home MVP
Speaker 4: this year.
Speaker 1: Well, SHO, do you have any concern with Tatusa's injury
Speaker 1: history and that maybe that pops back up this season.
Speaker 1: That would be maybe the only thing that could possibly
Speaker 1: deter betters maybe from going away from this five to
Speaker 1: one or plus seven to fifty number whatever, you're getting
Speaker 1: it out there as sure.
Speaker 3: I mean, but I would say, like I think all
Speaker 3: these guys have there's some injury works. If Carol's had
Speaker 3: the shoulder injuries, obviously, if Hotani starts pitching again, I
Speaker 3: think there's something that's weird. There a weird thing that's
Speaker 3: happened too, is you know, I'm talking to Tani. I
Speaker 3: give you maybe there's a little bit of Carrol and
Speaker 3: then you got Tatis. You also have a divisional fight.
Speaker 3: The inn A West is really tough. Yes, you could
Speaker 3: have whoever just puts themselves at the top. If the
Speaker 3: if the Padres pushed themselves above the Dodgers somehow for
Speaker 3: the season, Fernando Tatis is going to be the guy
Speaker 3: that everyone's staring at. So where you finish in the
Speaker 3: division could be really important to it. And you know,
Speaker 3: just slightly, we haven't talked about Kyle Tucker. Kyle Tucker
Speaker 3: is performing at this level as well. He deserves to
Speaker 3: be in it. We're gonna have to watch where the
Speaker 3: Cubs go. The Cubs really a struggling rotation, and if
Speaker 3: they start to lose some games and lose a little
Speaker 3: bit of traction in that divis to the Brewers, it
Speaker 3: might hold him back. But yeah, I think there's a
Speaker 3: lot of injury worries across the board. And that's why,
Speaker 3: by the way, I don't get too caught in to like, hey,
Speaker 3: this is like the coolest value. Unfortunately in this betting
Speaker 3: market of MVP, Judge and O'tani are just walking in
Speaker 3: as not just like yes books odds on favorite, but
Speaker 3: like they've already got the advantage. So it's like, if
Speaker 3: they're performing at their level, it's going to take so
Speaker 3: much more for another guy to take it. That's why
Speaker 3: when you're getting plus you know, two to one money
Speaker 3: on Otani, when you're looking at Judge being like minus
Speaker 3: a thousand, Yeah, at this point, like it just makes
Speaker 3: a lot of sense.
Speaker 2: But injury worries.
Speaker 3: You got to play this all in and shop around
Speaker 3: on the books. You said, we already found some cool
Speaker 3: thing about betting pros is you can get all the
Speaker 3: lines of all the books in one place. You can
Speaker 3: go in and you can find the right books that
Speaker 3: also might let you pay out a little bit more
Speaker 3: throughout the season if you do those long odd ones
Speaker 3: and you want to cash out mid season. So shop
Speaker 3: all your lines over on betting pros for MVP or
Speaker 3: any of the other markets.
Speaker 2: We're about to talk about.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Fandal is definitely my favorite place to place future
Speaker 1: bets because they're always so aggressive in hedging and trying
Speaker 1: to get you cash buying out.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So moving to the cy Young market. In the AL,
Speaker 1: the favorites remained very similar to what we saw preseason.
Speaker 1: Reigning Al Cy Young winner Tarique Scuball for the Tigers,
Speaker 1: He's moved from plus three to fifty down to plus
Speaker 1: two thirty. Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox, he went
Speaker 1: from plus five to fifty down to three to one. However,
Speaker 1: we did see Cole Reagan's injury see him be replaced
Speaker 1: by the Yankees Max Freed at plus five fifty and
Speaker 1: at the Astros Hunter Brown also plus five fifty. In
Speaker 1: the NL, your betting favorites are still Pittsburgh's Paul Skien.
Speaker 1: He's moved from three to one down to plus two
Speaker 1: to seventy. Kind of getting shit. I don't want to
Speaker 1: say shelled lately, but definitely some up and down performances
Speaker 1: from Skiens, but the Dodgers Yoshi Nobu Yamamito to the Reds,
Speaker 1: Hunter Green plus four to fifty. These are two other
Speaker 1: guys who've kind of joined this conversation. Joe, are you
Speaker 1: seeing any newfound value for who could be the best
Speaker 1: pitcher in baseball?
Speaker 4: I'm sticking with my guns from the preseason, and I've
Speaker 4: been kind of tied to this player for a while,
Speaker 4: and I've been pretty impressed with the early return. So
Speaker 4: I'm sticking with my guns and going with Jacob de
Speaker 4: Grom here getting at sixteen to one. You know, I
Speaker 4: know there are mixed opinions on Jacob de Gram, but
Speaker 4: what we've seen through seven starts is a two to
Speaker 4: sixty one era, a one zero zero whip. He's got
Speaker 4: a couple of wins already. Things are going well. The
Speaker 4: strikeouts haven't been quite where we'd expect them to be
Speaker 4: for Jacob de Grom. In thirty eight innings he has
Speaker 4: thirty six strikeouts, but those are starting to come along
Speaker 4: a little bit. I've mentioned this on a few different
Speaker 4: vetting pros and Fantasy pro shows that de Gram is
Speaker 4: kind of learning how to pitch again at a lower velocity.
Speaker 4: Instead of going ninety eight, ninety nine, one hundred, he's
Speaker 4: trying to sit more in the ninety six ninety seven
Speaker 4: range and limit his injury risk, and so far that.
Speaker 5: Is working out.
Speaker 4: Now, I think that is going to continue to work out,
Speaker 4: and as he continues to work at this level, he
Speaker 4: is going to improve. De Gram has been a max
Speaker 4: effort guy for his entire career, and I think that
Speaker 4: adjustment period is why we saw couple of shakier starts
Speaker 4: to begin the season. But now he seems pretty locked in,
Speaker 4: and I think we're going to continue to see these
Speaker 4: ratios at this same kind of level. He's going to
Speaker 4: have a mid twes era, maybe that whip dips below one.
Speaker 4: And I think considering the name value, considering the way
Speaker 4: that people this is not a statistical thing, but I
Speaker 4: think people kind of feel bad for Jacob de Gram
Speaker 4: a little bit that his whole career has kind of
Speaker 4: been his whole career, but the majority of his thirty's
Speaker 4: have kind of been cut out due to injury. If
Speaker 4: he's able to throw one hundred and seventy innings this
Speaker 4: year and give you a two four ERA and a
Speaker 4: one zero zero whip, I think there's gonna be a
Speaker 4: lot of voters who are going to be partial towards him,
Speaker 4: not just because of that. The numbers will also be great,
Speaker 4: I think, but there will also be part of that
Speaker 4: narrative that you need in these awards. Sometimes of de
Speaker 4: Gram is one of the best pitchers you've ever seen.
Speaker 4: He hasn't been able to stay healthy, but we can
Speaker 4: give him kind of one last hurrah here by sending
Speaker 4: him off with this third SiO.
Speaker 3: One thing I want to throw out why you might
Speaker 3: not want to feel too bad for Jacob deGrom. I
Speaker 3: think of this story my good Fernino Sarahs just told
Speaker 3: I think it was on foul Territory a month or
Speaker 3: so back about when he was a young reporter. He
Speaker 3: went into a locker room to interview Jacob de Gram
Speaker 3: and he said, oh, hey, do you have some time?
Speaker 3: And he's like, nope. And then Jacob de Gram sat
Speaker 3: down in a chair with a bag of chips and
Speaker 3: individually pulled out chips and stared at eno while he
Speaker 3: said he was too busy. So I don't think we
Speaker 3: feel too bad for Jacob d Gram.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, do you also like a long shot
Speaker 1: like a Rico's going or do you like maybe one
Speaker 1: of these heavier favorites.
Speaker 3: Okay, so in this smart. I'm still kind of boring.
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna throw that out here for it. You know,
Speaker 3: people want like the big numbers. But I will say this,
Speaker 3: if you're in a favorites market, I think it is
Speaker 3: actually a really cool idea to find something like this.
Speaker 3: So for example, Trek Scuble in the AL, if I
Speaker 3: were betting it, I think that's the play right now. Okay,
Speaker 3: I will say I kind of like Max Freed. Max
Speaker 3: Freed's already got six wins right now. He might end
Speaker 3: up pushing eighteen nineteen wins and that I think he's
Speaker 3: a sneaky one. But that wasn't my point. Jacob de
Speaker 3: Gram Jacob Gram at sixteen to one, betting a nice
Speaker 3: odds on favorite with a good stack and then having
Speaker 3: a sixteen to one if it does bounce like that,
Speaker 3: you know, if you're in the right market, you can
Speaker 3: buy out. It's a fun hedge in the cy Young place,
Speaker 3: so same thing in the NL. I'm kind of boring.
Speaker 3: I'm still on schemes. Even those skeens has been relatively
Speaker 3: like underwhelming overall. He's still got a two seven seven era.
Speaker 3: That's great, but he has more losses than wins right now.
Speaker 3: His K percentage is down. He was thirty three percent
Speaker 3: last year, He's only twenty four percent this year. Cap
Speaker 3: per nine has been down and things are inflated a
Speaker 3: little bit though, because he has got this weird thing
Speaker 3: against the Cardinals. He's given up fifteen earned runs as
Speaker 3: we are recording this. Seven of those earned runs have
Speaker 3: come against the Saint Louis Cardinals. They just own him,
Speaker 3: So I don't know really necessarily what at the end
Speaker 3: of the day that means, but there's some sometimes you know,
Speaker 3: teams just own a certain player, So if you know
Speaker 3: Zach Allen is doing that with any New York based team.
Speaker 3: But what I'm getting at is here, even in the struggles,
Speaker 3: even though Cardinals have kind of hit him up, CA
Speaker 3: percentage is down a bit, he has a better expected
Speaker 3: era than actual era right now, and the win should
Speaker 3: start stacking up. And he is still the most electric
Speaker 3: pitcher in baseball, and you're getting like almost three to
Speaker 3: one odds. So I think that's a really, really good play.
Speaker 3: But I think another guy that you could take a
Speaker 3: look at if you want to go to a higher market,
Speaker 3: and I think this one is a little misplaced, is
Speaker 3: Zach Wheeler. Zach Wheeler's got a three three five VRA
Speaker 3: right now through eight starts, only three wins to one loss,
Speaker 3: but as one of the best expected the rays in
Speaker 3: baseball at two three six, So that's a full run
Speaker 3: lower expected batting average on a monster of a team
Speaker 3: with the Phillies tons of runs support, and he has
Speaker 3: been one of the best pitchers in baseball eleven to one.
Speaker 3: So if I'm going to play that head, if this
Speaker 3: is what you like to do in this pitching market,
Speaker 3: I think Skeins is the play. You know, if he
Speaker 3: were if he had five wins and one loss and
Speaker 3: you know the Semira, but with like a ten k
Speaker 3: per nine, he would be minus like two fifty right now.
Speaker 3: I think Chris Sale's really struggling. He's bouncing back, but
Speaker 3: it's going to take a long time for a to
Speaker 3: bounce back. I think this is good value, and I
Speaker 3: think Zach Wheeler would be a hedge play at eleven
Speaker 3: to one that I would put in for Cy Young.
Speaker 1: Awesome some Pennsylvania based pitchers there for the Welsh in
Speaker 1: the Cy Young markets. Before we continue, don't forget to
Speaker 1: try out our Betting Pros Betting Systems tool, which is
Speaker 1: designed to help you find winning strategies and make smarter bets.
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Speaker 1: start making smarter bets today. All right, let's go ahead
Speaker 1: and move into the heavier juice markets, like the season
Speaker 1: win totals or that to make the playoffs. Well, you
Speaker 1: already have a three to one ticket on the Reds
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. How are you feeling about that?
Speaker 1: And what's your current favorite value for these markets?
Speaker 2: How am I feeling about that one?
Speaker 3: I'm I'm not like loving it because they're like halfway
Speaker 3: through the division, Cubs are kind of coming back brew
Speaker 3: I mean, listen, they're four back totally in the division.
Speaker 3: They're right there with the Brewers to make the playoffs.
Speaker 3: They're still a decent shot if one of those guys
Speaker 3: bounce back. So I would say I'm kind of middling
Speaker 3: on that. The Cardinals I think are going to taper
Speaker 3: back in Pittsburgh, so I mean like they're they're competitive
Speaker 3: in it. But when looking at this, I don't see
Speaker 3: a lot of tickets for like still to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: But you can.
Speaker 3: I mean there's there's definitely a few that are still
Speaker 3: out there, but you're not going to find these big,
Speaker 3: crazy odds unless you want to play like a you know,
Speaker 3: a Pirates or something like that. But one that really
Speaker 3: stood out to me is the Boston Red Sox. I
Speaker 3: think this was over on I want to say this
Speaker 3: might have been on DK, but to make the playoffs.
Speaker 3: They're one of the few plus money plays out there.
Speaker 3: Plus one oh five for the Red Sox to make
Speaker 3: the playoffs. And you know, it's been competitive to a
Speaker 3: degree in the AL I mean the Ale Central, between Detroit, Cleveland,
Speaker 3: and Kansas City, they've all been monsters. They've got better
Speaker 3: records than anybody. By the way, all three of those
Speaker 3: teams have a better record than any team in the
Speaker 3: Ale East right now, which is crazy.
Speaker 2: But here's the deal.
Speaker 3: I think you can play this to win the division.
Speaker 3: I think it's still three to one for the Red Sox,
Speaker 3: but just to make the playoff the Red Sox, it's
Speaker 3: plus money. They are two and a half game back
Speaker 3: on the Yankees right now. They're up on Tampa. Toronto
Speaker 3: and Baltimore are both kind of faltering. Tampa I don't
Speaker 3: think can hold to it, and I think Boston just
Speaker 3: hasn't even gotten going yet. I mean, Garrett Crochet is
Speaker 3: still kind of finding his legs. There's getting a few
Speaker 3: guys healthy. I mean, they've got to get Bueller back
Speaker 3: gi Alito. I think they're going to be aggressive in
Speaker 3: the trade market, and I like them to still win
Speaker 3: the division pinning whatever price you can get, but to
Speaker 3: make the playoffs at plus money, I am not going
Speaker 3: to count out the Red Sox that have got a
Speaker 3: couple of great arms in the bullpen.
Speaker 2: They're led by Garrett Crochet, They've.
Speaker 3: Got a bevy of minor league talent that they can
Speaker 3: use in trade assets, and they've got an offense that's
Speaker 3: centered around Alex Bregman, who is like, you know.
Speaker 2: It's pseudo MVP.
Speaker 3: Like if the Red Sox are playing a little bit
Speaker 3: better and Judge wasn't there, like I think he would
Speaker 3: be an interesting ticket. So I think plus money for
Speaker 3: the Reds and make the playoff right now is a
Speaker 3: really great bet to make in May.
Speaker 1: Joe, you were riding with the Twins in the preseason
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs at even money. Are you still
Speaker 1: holding out hope for that to cash or are you
Speaker 1: looking maybe to potentially hedge elsewhere in the al Central.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 4: No, I do like that Twins bet, and I'm going
Speaker 4: to talk about it a little bit later on. But
Speaker 4: the one that I'm going to focus in on right
Speaker 4: now is the Detroit Tigers under ninety one and a
Speaker 4: half wins. This one, for me, I think they're just
Speaker 4: off to an unsustainably hot start. And if I go
Speaker 4: back to last season, I was looking at where they
Speaker 4: were in the standings at the end of August. They
Speaker 4: were a five hundred team and they had a really
Speaker 4: hot September that rode them into the playoffs. And they
Speaker 4: have started off the season incredibly well. But I think
Speaker 4: there's a lot of overperformers. Spencer Torkelson has a one
Speaker 4: to fifty WRC plus. I like Spencer Torkleson, but that
Speaker 4: number is not going to stick. Havevi Baiez a one
Speaker 4: thirty nine WRC plus one thirty eight for Glaber Torres,
Speaker 4: one thirty for Zach McKinstry, one twenty eight for Dylan Dingler.
Speaker 4: They're overperformed offensively. This was an eighty six win team
Speaker 4: last year that so far has been one of the
Speaker 4: best teams in baseball, and it just doesn't feel all
Speaker 4: that sustainable. As a team, they've been a top five offense.
Speaker 4: Does anybody think that's going to continue, because I really don't,
Speaker 4: And I think you're seeing this number now set about
Speaker 4: five or six wins above where they were last year.
Speaker 4: I don't think they're five or six wins better than
Speaker 4: last year. I think they're exactly about where they were.
Speaker 4: If you factor in that, there may be a little
Speaker 4: bit better than they all maybe spread out some of
Speaker 4: those wins throughout the season as opposed to just stockpiling
Speaker 4: them in September like they did last year. But I
Speaker 4: think this is a maybe a five hundred team, maybe
Speaker 4: a slightly above five hundred team. Wow, their bullpen is
Speaker 4: not really that impressive. Yes, Scooble is fantastic, But outside
Speaker 4: of Schooble, I don't really know how much I trust
Speaker 4: the rest of the rotation. I like Jack Flaherty, but
Speaker 4: I don't know how much I can actually trust him.
Speaker 4: Reese Olsen, Jackson, Joe Casey, Maiz. There is some potential
Speaker 4: in the starting rotation, but overall, it really comes back
Speaker 4: to the offense overperforming. Specifically, you see guys like hove
Speaker 4: baias forty percent above league average at this point of
Speaker 4: the season, it tells you how early things still are.
Speaker 4: So I think the Tigers under ninety one and a half.
Speaker 4: Look for the highest number you can find and take
Speaker 4: the under, usually at about minus one to ten. I
Speaker 4: don't think they're a ninety plus win team.
Speaker 1: Well, do you also see maybe some regression coming for Detroit.
Speaker 2: I think there's some regression in play.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if I think that they're just like
Speaker 3: a five hundred team, But also if I don't know,
Speaker 3: if we're doing this every month, if we come back
Speaker 3: in June, I'm not going to be surprised if they're
Speaker 3: third in this division and Cleveland City have jumped over them.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think I think Kansas City's kind of
Speaker 3: a sleeping sleeping Giants, a little dramatic, like they just
Speaker 3: their offense was just so bad and they're starting to
Speaker 3: click free.
Speaker 2: Jack cagleiwan just give them to the majors.
Speaker 3: Maybe make a move or two, but I think their
Speaker 3: rotations solid. They get a great bullpen. I think Kansas
Speaker 3: City's gonna bounce back. Cleveland. You just can never count
Speaker 3: them out and they're going to keep rocking. So I
Speaker 3: won't be surprised if Detroit is third in this division,
Speaker 3: but it's still gonna be relatively tight.
Speaker 1: Okay, before we keep it going, I just wanted to
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Speaker 1: and well, from Luchador mass to Mario Brothers Themes. You
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Speaker 1: these episodes that you guys do and they're just fantastic.
Speaker 1: They're law fun man.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you say it nicely, but we are stupid. Embrace
Speaker 3: stupid when we possibly can try to have some fun
Speaker 3: with baseball. Baseball can be a very mind numbing sports sometime,
Speaker 3: especially for people here on betting pros, you know that
Speaker 3: are just kind of like wrapping their heads and kind
Speaker 3: of getting around baseball betting. And we try to put
Speaker 3: as much fun into baseball as possible when you know,
Speaker 3: you get way over your head with everything that is MLB.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and overrun leading off too. They do their daily
Speaker 1: best bets and their home run calls. So if you
Speaker 1: guys are looking for more MLB betting advice making, make
Speaker 1: sure you're checking out leading off. Let's go ahead, though,
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the to win the division odds,
Speaker 1: where there were some incredibly short odds to begin this
Speaker 1: season that some look like pretty good bets.
Speaker 5: Now.
Speaker 1: The Dodgers they're still right around that minus four to
Speaker 1: ten mark to win the NL West. The Chicago Cubs
Speaker 1: went from plus one twenty five to win the NL
Speaker 1: Central to now minus two to twenty five. The Yankees
Speaker 1: they were at plus one sixty to win their division.
Speaker 1: They're now down to minus one thirty five to win
Speaker 1: the Al East Joe in a market of such juiced odds,
Speaker 1: Do you have anything a bit longer that might wet
Speaker 1: the whistle of baseball betters.
Speaker 4: Yeah, to kind of go back to what I was
Speaker 4: mentioning earlier, what you brought up, the Minnesota Twins.
Speaker 5: Are still very interesting team to me.
Speaker 4: It hasn't been a great start to the season, for sure,
Speaker 4: and I think a lot of that does come down
Speaker 4: to their offense underperforming. This is a team that had
Speaker 4: a one oh seven WRC plus as a team last
Speaker 4: year and they're down at ninety five right now, So
Speaker 4: that is something that I don't really expect to continue
Speaker 4: at that pace.
Speaker 5: You got some guys who are underperforming.
Speaker 4: They just got Royce Lewis back, which I hope you
Speaker 4: never know with Royce Lewis, but I hope he's able
Speaker 4: to actually stay healthy for a while and give them
Speaker 4: some production. But you had Byron Buxton who's been doing
Speaker 4: very well, Carlos care has kind of been underperforming. The
Speaker 4: offense hasn't been all that impressive. But I just come
Speaker 4: back to this pitching more often than not, and especially
Speaker 4: when you got David Festa and Zebbie Matthews still waiting
Speaker 4: to come up. But Ryan Ober Pablo Lopez has been
Speaker 4: fantastic the bullpen. I'm a big fan of their Penn
Speaker 4: Griffin Jacks got off to a bad start, but he
Speaker 4: has kind of turned things around, you know. Joan Duran
Speaker 4: is still doing him doing his things.
Speaker 5: But I think it comes down to the weakness of
Speaker 5: the division overall.
Speaker 4: Kansas City is, like well said, they're a better team
Speaker 4: than what they have played to so far, but I'm
Speaker 4: not sure exactly how great they're going to be this season.
Speaker 4: The offense, maybe once they get jacked the things will change,
Speaker 4: but it hasn't been a great offense. They're pitching is eh,
Speaker 4: a little bit iffy, especially with the Cole Reagan's not
Speaker 4: injury like he was heard, he's kind of we're not
Speaker 4: really sure we're exactly on his health status because he
Speaker 4: had a good game the other night. He's kind of
Speaker 4: bounced back and forth. But the White Sox stink. The
Speaker 4: Tigers I think are overperforming. The Guardians I think are okay.
Speaker 4: But this is a winnable division essentially, is what I'm saying.
Speaker 4: And I think the Twins are thirteenth or fourteenth in
Speaker 4: terms of team wins above replacement to this point of
Speaker 4: the season, but they have really underperformed in terms of
Speaker 4: the results. So I think you're getting them at plus
Speaker 4: twelve hundred. Again, shop that line around, maybe you'll get
Speaker 4: an even better line. But the key point here is
Speaker 4: it is a very winnable division at plus twelve hundred.
Speaker 4: I think it's a solid bet to make on a
Speaker 4: Twins team that last year was a very good team
Speaker 4: and just ended up disappointing at the end, but I
Speaker 4: don't expect that to continue this season.
Speaker 1: Joe Rico doubling down on the Minnesota Twins. I don't
Speaker 1: hate that twelve to one number at all to win
Speaker 1: the Central What about you, Welsh? Is there a team
Speaker 1: out there that might still have some value in this
Speaker 1: market after we're about a month into the season so far.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I mentioned like the Red Sox. You know
Speaker 3: they're decent. You're gonna get good plus money on them
Speaker 3: to win a division. But I'm not picking them because
Speaker 3: the standout to me is at almost three to one
Speaker 3: the Texas Rangers. The Texas Rangers for the AL West.
Speaker 3: The AL West right now is filled up at the
Speaker 3: top with the Seattle Mariners and the Athletics. The Sacramento
Speaker 3: Athletics right now are above them either Texas team. To
Speaker 3: be honest with you, as a play if you wanted
Speaker 3: to go with the Astros. But here's the deal. The
Speaker 3: offense for the Mariners has definitely clicked. I think they're overperforming.
Speaker 3: They're built around there pitching. Kirby's going to be back,
Speaker 3: and Logan Gilbert looks like it's not like too serious,
Speaker 3: but it could be about a month. All of that
Speaker 3: to say, for them to be leading the division with
Speaker 3: those type of injuries works really well for them. But
Speaker 3: I think they're overperforming. I do not believe the Athletics
Speaker 3: in that ballpark and that pitching that they're going to
Speaker 3: hold through. Great story, it's super fun. Win total was
Speaker 3: a great bet for you this year. I think we
Speaker 3: even might have had that on Fantasy Fest when we
Speaker 3: had Derek Cardi. I think that might have been one
Speaker 3: of his bets if I remember the a's on the wins.
Speaker 3: But with the Rangers, this is a this is like
Speaker 3: a favorite. This is a minus money favorite that's out
Speaker 3: there that they have been massively underperforming. For perspective too,
Speaker 3: they just went three and seven in their last ten games.
Speaker 3: They're only three and a half games behind in the division.
Speaker 3: Even in those struggles. Wow, you've had Marcus Simeon struggling,
Speaker 3: Jake Berger was sent down. They just brought back Evan Carter,
Speaker 3: and they're dealing with the rotation stuff. They're built around
Speaker 3: Jacob de Grom and Evaldi. They've got to be aggressive
Speaker 3: in the trade market. I want to see them bring
Speaker 3: in someone for the bullpen. Bringing to Ryan Helsley, I
Speaker 3: think that's going to really lock them in. And we're
Speaker 3: just waiting for these bats to start coming alive, because
Speaker 3: from top to bottom it's a killer offense.
Speaker 2: So to be three and.
Speaker 3: A half games back in the division in May and
Speaker 3: get almost three to one odds, I'm taking it all day.
Speaker 3: I think this is like the most smashing in my
Speaker 3: face play. It doesn't have the great like twelve to
Speaker 3: one odds can buy it down and stuff as time
Speaker 3: goes on. But if you're looking for a straight play
Speaker 3: for a team to win the division, I think the
Speaker 3: Astros are a little bit behind offensively. In general, pitching
Speaker 3: is a hunter. Brown's been amazing, but taking a step back.
Speaker 3: Texas Rangers absolutely jump out to me. At almost three
Speaker 3: to one as a bet to win the division.
Speaker 1: Okay, so Welsh liking Texas. As we approach the dog
Speaker 1: days of summer, Let's go ahead and move into the
Speaker 1: World Series odds, which have seen some serious movement in
Speaker 1: recent weeks at DraftKings, specifically where the Dodgers have gone
Speaker 1: from plus two ninety down to plus two to fifty,
Speaker 1: the Mets now in the conversation at plus eight fifty,
Speaker 1: and the Yankees have actually grown from plus eight fifty
Speaker 1: to now nine to one. Welsh, is there any value
Speaker 1: out there that we're not talking about right now for
Speaker 1: a team to potentially win it all?
Speaker 3: Kind of kind of double down on where I was
Speaker 3: in the preseason and kind of like a Rico was saying,
Speaker 3: Dodgers are kind of the play. But if you're looking
Speaker 3: for value, I'm gonna go back to the Boston Red Sox.
Speaker 5: Oh.
Speaker 2: You know, they have been weird. It's been weird to
Speaker 2: start this season.
Speaker 3: Crochet is at his like little tiny moments and Walker
Speaker 3: Bueler got hurt in the offense wasn't clicking and then
Speaker 3: obviously they just lost Tristan Costas. That feels like a
Speaker 3: death sentence.
Speaker 2: I will say this.
Speaker 3: If they hold on to this hole, we're gonna play
Speaker 3: Abraham Toro and Rome Gonzalez at first base.
Speaker 6: Thing.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna riot and freak out because.
Speaker 3: They have too many good players that are out there
Speaker 3: that you put Devers at first and bring Roman Anthony
Speaker 3: up or make a trade. I think this team is
Speaker 3: too talented. While I think this division is very gettable.
Speaker 3: The Yankees have been playing up, but they have suffered
Speaker 3: some major injuries, had some offensive woes. Max Fried has
Speaker 3: held them up, but there are some warts on that team.
Speaker 3: Where the Boston Red Sox I think they have held
Speaker 3: their own. I think they can bounce back, and they're
Speaker 3: led by a powerful top end of the offense and
Speaker 3: a great top end of the rotation, and I think
Speaker 3: Garrett Croche can really hold them through.
Speaker 2: So I think they have the pieces.
Speaker 3: It's like you got defense, you got pitching, you got bullpen,
Speaker 3: you got offense. You just need them all to click.
Speaker 3: It's very early in the season, twenty to one, twenty
Speaker 3: to one at this point, so you're looking for some
Speaker 3: value on there. If they end up taking say here's
Speaker 3: the other thing, if you're wanting to buy out. If
Speaker 3: they end up taking back this Division. It's gonna cut
Speaker 3: in half. It's gonna slice in half. You're gonna be
Speaker 3: looking at like nine to one or eight to one,
Speaker 3: and there's gonna be buyout opportunities if you want so.
Speaker 3: I think the Dodgers is an easy play. But my
Speaker 3: hedge play would be the Boston Red Sox.
Speaker 1: Okay, Joe, you already had a preseason Dodgers ticket out
Speaker 1: there around that plus two ninety mark. Are you sticking
Speaker 1: with them or is there a different hedge that you
Speaker 1: may be like?
Speaker 4: No, I mean there's a couple teams that are like
Speaker 4: Mets are looking good and you could maybe.
Speaker 5: Play around a little bit, But it's the Dodgers.
Speaker 4: I mean, the Dodgers have faced so much already in
Speaker 4: terms of guys missing time. They just brought up Land
Speaker 4: and Knak, who I figured we'd see at some point,
Speaker 4: but I didn't think he'd be in the rotation necessarily
Speaker 4: at this point of the season. But Edmund's on the
Speaker 4: eel ta Oscar Hernandez. If you look at the pitching injuries,
Speaker 4: it's ridiculous with Glass now Kershaw, Snell, and yet they're
Speaker 4: twenty four and twelve right, They're they're just too I
Speaker 4: don't know if we use this term in the preseason show,
Speaker 4: but they're almost too big to fail. They're almost they're
Speaker 4: almost too good and too deep that even if they
Speaker 4: have six injuries like they have right now, it doesn't
Speaker 4: really matter. They're just so so deep. The bulpin is strong.
Speaker 4: There are like ten or twelve vibe pitchers on the
Speaker 4: depth chart. The lineup has three MVPs. It's just they're
Speaker 4: too good and you're getting him at plus two thirty
Speaker 4: plus two fifty. Maybe in some places I would hammer
Speaker 4: that all day.
Speaker 1: Okay, we'll go ahead and round out the program with
Speaker 1: a guy's favorite futures long shot, starting with you, Joe,
Speaker 1: who is in fact revisiting the World Series market.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so if you are gonna go deep, then I
Speaker 4: think the Atlanta Braves are somewhat interesting here. And a
Speaker 4: lot of it comes down to pitching wins championships a
Speaker 4: lot of the time, and they have a three headed monster,
Speaker 4: or they will have a three headed monster by the
Speaker 4: time the playoffs come around. With Sale with Schwellenbach and
Speaker 4: hopefully with Spencer Stryder. Now I know that it hasn't
Speaker 4: been exactly all smooth sailing for him so far.
Speaker 5: This season.
Speaker 4: I think that by the time we're looking at September October,
Speaker 4: he should be healthy. And this lineup is also a
Speaker 4: team that you know, I know that they have kind
Speaker 4: of disappointed to this to this point of the season,
Speaker 4: but when you're looking at Riley Ozuna, Olsen, Alby's, Mike Harris,
Speaker 4: with ron To Kunya soon to be back, I think
Speaker 4: that this team does have enough juice to push their
Speaker 4: way to the World Series should they get into the playoffs. Now,
Speaker 4: it's a tricky division. There's a lot of good teams
Speaker 4: in that division. Right now, they're seventeen and eighteen, but
Speaker 4: they're only five games back, and I think that once
Speaker 4: they get Strider back, once they get a COONa back,
Speaker 4: we're going to start to see this team perform like
Speaker 4: we've seen them perform outside of the last year and
Speaker 4: a half or so, and they're a ninety five plus
Speaker 4: win team when all is going well. But I really
Speaker 4: think it comes down to their strength of pitching. Once
Speaker 4: we get into the postseason. You really only need three,
Speaker 4: maybe four starting pitchers once you get into October, and
Speaker 4: they have about as good of a big three as you're.
Speaker 5: Going to find.
Speaker 4: And then Grant Holmes. There's no slouch himself there as
Speaker 4: the fourth guy. Like, they're really deep on all sides
Speaker 4: of the ball right now. Alex Radugo leading off might
Speaker 4: make some people say, what are you talking about?
Speaker 5: They're not.
Speaker 4: But once they get a Conya back, once they get
Speaker 4: Strider back, I think that the wheels are going to
Speaker 4: be up on this team.
Speaker 1: Okay, So hoping for health is Joe Rico with the
Speaker 1: Braves World Series call at fifteen to one. Welsh, you
Speaker 1: gave us a very interesting Garrett Crochet to lead the
Speaker 1: MLB in strikeouts at ten to one to begin the season.
Speaker 1: Do you maybe have another one of these season long
Speaker 1: player props we should be getting invested with?
Speaker 3: All right, what if I told you there's a player
Speaker 3: that hit ninety eight homers between twenty twenty three and
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. What if I told you if this
Speaker 3: player hit over fifty homers last year? Still intrigued?
Speaker 1: Maybe?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Now what if I told you that player you can
Speaker 3: get eight to one odds.
Speaker 2: To lead the league in home runs? Wow, Shoeo Tani.
Speaker 3: DK's got it right there. Eight to one for sho
Speaker 3: Hao Tani to lead the league in homers. The two
Speaker 3: current leaders are guys that struggle to hit two forty
Speaker 3: or two fifty, and Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Raley obviously
Speaker 3: number three at eleven. Those two guys are tied with
Speaker 3: twelve homers. The next guy up is Aaron Judge, who
Speaker 3: is like far and beyond the top leae. It's like,
Speaker 3: I think it's minus money or it's like plus one
Speaker 3: hundred or whatever. It's there's no value em betting Aaron Judge.
Speaker 3: But number four in the league is shoe Hayo Tani
Speaker 3: who's already got ten homers and hasn't really even gotten
Speaker 3: going hit fifty four last year, and you can get
Speaker 3: eight to one odds on it. Is Judge going to
Speaker 3: take it?
Speaker 2: It's very likely, But.
Speaker 3: I'm not going to bet Corvin Carroll who's got ten homers.
Speaker 3: I'm not going to bet Spencer Torkal Center James would
Speaker 3: even if you want all the crazy odds. I want
Speaker 3: a high batting average player. Aaron Judge qualifies that that
Speaker 3: guy might be a triple crown guy right now, and
Speaker 3: that's why it's so exciting, and the odds are up
Speaker 3: even though he doesn't have you know, eighteen homers or
Speaker 3: something right now, guy's hitting four hundred, but Otani, that stadium,
Speaker 3: that lineup, and that bat would just hit fifty four.
Speaker 3: You want value, you want a long shot eight to
Speaker 3: one for him to lead the league in homers. Seems
Speaker 3: like a pretty pretty fun bet.
Speaker 5: I like it.
Speaker 1: What do you think, Joe, Is that a fun one
Speaker 1: for you?
Speaker 5: I do.
Speaker 4: I wonder what it would look like if you're just
Speaker 4: betting him to lead the National League in homers.
Speaker 5: This probably wouldn't be as appealing of a number.
Speaker 2: I don't bet it's in.
Speaker 3: Probably really like two to one. Maybe you could probably
Speaker 3: get like two to one or something along those.
Speaker 4: Anything where you're kind of betting against Judge is interesting,
Speaker 4: Like if there is a bet where it's like the
Speaker 4: field versus Aaron Judge for MVP or for home runs
Speaker 4: or you know, batting title, it might be wise. And
Speaker 4: I'm not sure what specific books will offer it, especially
Speaker 4: at this point of the season, but if you can
Speaker 4: take the field in a lot of those markets, I
Speaker 4: think it's definitely interesting, and Otani being the main one.
Speaker 4: If you are taking the field for the home run race.
Speaker 4: I know Kyle Rawley's interesting, Alonzo's interesting, but like you mentioned,
Speaker 4: Otani is going to be hitting three hundred or close
Speaker 4: to it, where those guys have a risk. I know
Speaker 4: Alonzo's a three forty right now, but he's not going
Speaker 4: to maintain that pace. You could easily see Otani lead
Speaker 4: the league in homers. If Judge misses a week or two,
Speaker 4: a couple of weeks, then I wouldn't surprise me at all.
Speaker 1: Okay, well, gentlemen, great analysis tonight. That is going to
Speaker 1: do it for us on the Betting Pros Podcast. Thanks
Speaker 1: so much for watching. As always, the best freeway support
Speaker 1: us is to give this video a thumbs up if
Speaker 1: you enjoy this type of content. Also subscribe to the
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Speaker 1: Betting Pros app and seeking your sportsbooks today. Hey for
Speaker 1: Chris Welsh and Joe Rico, I'm Seth Wilcock. Take care
Speaker 1: of y'all.
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