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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros podcast. It's

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Speaker 1: time to place your bets for the MLB's future markets.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and today I am joined

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Speaker 1: by some sensational baseball betters to revisit the MLB future odds,

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Speaker 1: including the host of Leading Off and a guy who

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Speaker 1: has a litany of big league players on speed dial,

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Speaker 1: Chris Welsh, Akad Welsh Welsh. Thanks for taking time of

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Speaker 1: your busy, important schedule to be here with us today.

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Speaker 1: How are you.

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Speaker 2: I'm doing great.

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Speaker 3: You am very busy schedule hanging out with my dear

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Speaker 3: friend Jackson Merrill, or last night hanging out with very

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Speaker 3: dear friend Clayton Kershaw. Anyone on the backfields becomes a

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Speaker 3: very very good friend of mine all around the baseball world.

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Speaker 3: We're glad to talk, hopefully not about those guys, but

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Speaker 3: some good bets.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely. Also joining us is the top arm in our

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Speaker 1: fantasy baseball bullpen, Joe Rico. Joe, Great to see you.

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Speaker 1: How are things north of the border as summer approaches?

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Speaker 4: Thanks for going pretty well, Seth. Great to do with

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Speaker 4: this show with you guys. I've been looking forward to it.

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Speaker 4: Some interesting players are going to be discussing today, I

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Speaker 4: get to mention one of my favor a couple of

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Speaker 4: my favorite players actually, so I'm not going to.

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Speaker 5: Keep the people waiting. Let's just dive into it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, as Joe and Welsh mentioned today's show, it

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Speaker 1: does look like this. We'll revisit the fallowing betting markets,

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Speaker 1: MVP CY young season win totals, to make the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: division winners, World series winners, and of course our favorite

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Speaker 1: long shot futures. And before we get going, big shout

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Speaker 1: to everyone who's joining us either on the Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel or the audio feed. The easiest way support

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Speaker 1: us is give this video a thumbs up if you

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Speaker 1: enjoy this type of content and subscribe if you're new,

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Speaker 1: and also make sure you're checking out the Fantasy Pros

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Speaker 1: MLB YouTube channel. Well, you guys have been busy, to

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Speaker 1: say the least, over there on that channel this year.

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Speaker 3: Just as the lead, a lot of content out there

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Speaker 3: on the Fantasy Pro side. You can see behind me

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Speaker 3: on there, but make sure check out twelve pm Eastern

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Speaker 3: Monday through Friday, we are on the live Met and

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Speaker 3: Joe piece of PA for leading off where we do

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Speaker 3: do some bets every single day for everybody, and then

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Speaker 3: we got lots of other content for the fantasy side.

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Speaker 3: But we got your betting covered and we got it

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Speaker 3: right here.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go ahead and jump into the MVP

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Speaker 1: picks in the L. In the NL, you can actually

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Speaker 1: get show hey Otani add a better number plus two

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Speaker 1: twenty five then you could preseason. And we also have

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Speaker 1: some new challengers in the mix, including Kyle Tucker plus

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Speaker 1: four twenty five, Corby and Carrol your guy Welsh plus

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Speaker 1: six fifty and for Neando Tatis Junior plus seven to

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Speaker 1: fifty as the only MVP candidates below ten to one.

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Speaker 1: On the AL side of things, the books are saying

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Speaker 1: us all but over right now, with Aaron Judge moving

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Speaker 1: from plus three to ten as a favorite preseason to

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Speaker 1: minus nine hundred after a blazing hot start. Welsh with

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Speaker 1: this said, you already had a Bobbywitt Junior ticket in

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Speaker 1: your back pocket. So are you staying in the AL

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Speaker 1: or you're going elsewhere with your MVP value.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna talk about the NL here, though, I will

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Speaker 3: say this, if de Penning, what type of better you are?

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Speaker 3: If you're going to be like value, If you're looking

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Speaker 3: for what is my best potential value ROI return on investment?

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Speaker 2: The al is ripe for it.

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Speaker 3: Anything could happen, Judge could pair back, there could be

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Speaker 3: an injury, and then all of a sudden, pretty much

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Speaker 3: anybody you get on the ticket is going to start

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Speaker 3: probably getting you into a cash out period. So a

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Speaker 3: guy like Bobby Witt, who's the power, has been kind

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Speaker 3: of down, but the batting average is still up. The

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Speaker 3: offense is just starting to pick up. For the Royals,

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Speaker 3: it's probably not a bad time anybody you can get

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Speaker 3: more than ten to one, which is the entire al

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Speaker 3: makes sense. Where I'm going to go, though, is I

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Speaker 3: got to go to show Heyo Tani and I think

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Speaker 3: that this is boring. I'm not as much of a like,

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Speaker 3: go and get me the coolest, funnest twelve to one

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Speaker 3: type of odds and let's see what happens.

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Speaker 2: I'm looking at this.

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Speaker 3: And I'm going this is the best odds that we

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Speaker 3: are going to see, and we have seen on show

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Speaker 3: Heyo Tani. If he starts pitching, that's going to open

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Speaker 3: up the market. It's still the Dodgers. There's a lot

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Speaker 3: of guys competing. But when you're getting close to three

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Speaker 3: to one on a show Heyo Tani ticket. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I guess it's closer to two to one either way.

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Speaker 3: Plus money on Otani, it's got to be a bet.

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Speaker 3: So I think that's an easy one to jump into.

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Speaker 3: Ten homers, ten stolen bases. He's hitting a most three hundred.

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Speaker 3: RBIs have been really low this season. That's going to

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Speaker 3: pick up. And just if we're you know, looking at

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Speaker 3: the profile of Otani, it's ridiculous. It's top like two

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Speaker 3: percent tel across the league in his hitting metrics, So

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Speaker 3: I expect the homers to fly. He's still going to

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Speaker 3: be stealing bases and those RBI numbers are going to

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Speaker 3: come up. And as the Dodgers keep winning games, Bam,

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Speaker 3: it's a nice little two to one ticket. If I

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Speaker 3: were playing it a little bit higher, I think the

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Speaker 3: NL is ripe with some fun bets. Okay, A Rico's

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Speaker 3: got a good one. Corbyn Carroll does stand out to me.

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Speaker 3: HOMERSM is sad, Yes, I got Corbyn. Carroll's like right

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Speaker 3: above me in a jersey, So there's a little bit

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Speaker 3: of that. But at five and a half to one,

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Speaker 3: Corbyn's been putting.

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Speaker 2: Up an MVP like season.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not even sure that that's debatable. He's

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Speaker 3: changed his swing, He's changed his approach. He no longer

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Speaker 3: has some of those bad holes that he had in

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Speaker 3: his swing. He's up to two eighty eight. He just

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Speaker 3: went through a little bad spell. But the hitting profile

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Speaker 3: also looks phenomenal. Ten homers, big homers, stolen bases have

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Speaker 3: been light. I think those are going to pick up

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Speaker 3: Diamondbacks win games.

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Speaker 2: He is crucial to that actual piece of being an MVP.

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Speaker 3: But I'm a little bit worried about the ups and downs.

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Speaker 3: But if you want a good price, I think Corbin Carolyn,

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Speaker 3: what he could do for this Diamondback teams at five

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Speaker 3: and a half to one is kind of a fun play.

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Speaker 3: But Shoe Heyo Tani at a little over two to one.

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Speaker 3: That is my smash play on MVP betting.

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Speaker 1: Joe, you're going with a different horse in this MVP

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Speaker 1: race for the NL. Who is it?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Welsh mentioned him, Fernando Tattis junior. Now the line

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Speaker 4: that you mentioned, Seth is different than the one that

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Speaker 4: I saw. You're better because the one that I saw

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Speaker 4: was plus five hundred plus six hundred. But you said

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Speaker 4: it was plus seven hundred plus seven to fifty, So

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Speaker 4: it might be a better line out there if you

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Speaker 4: want to be shopping around the books. But Frando Tattists

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Speaker 4: Junior is kind of reminding me of what Ronald Acunya

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Speaker 4: Junior did a couple of years ago. You know, there

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Speaker 4: had been some doubt with both of them about what

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Speaker 4: they're going to look like off of some relatively big injuries,

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Speaker 4: and then they're coming in and destroying the world. Now,

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Speaker 4: not quite to the same level as what Acuna was

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Speaker 4: doing a couple of years ago, but through thirty four games,

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Speaker 4: Tattis has eight homers, eight steals in a three twenty

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Speaker 4: one batting average with a career best one to sixty

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Speaker 4: four WRC plus. And you've seen kind of some of

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Speaker 4: those Acunya type of things. He's striking out last, he's walking,

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Speaker 4: or he's still making incredible contact fifty five percent hard

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Speaker 4: hit in the sixteen percent barrel rate. He's kind of

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Speaker 4: looking like he's on his way to maybe not quite

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Speaker 4: forty forty but forty thirty, forty thirty five maybe. And

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Speaker 4: I think that considering the odds you're getting, it is

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Speaker 4: a worthwhile bet to place is he the most likely

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Speaker 4: to win MVP. I think it's gonna be either him,

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Speaker 4: Kyle Tucker Otawani. One of those guys is more than

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Speaker 4: likely to get it. But I think you're getting the

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Speaker 4: longest odds with tatis. That does make it a really

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Speaker 4: appealing bet considering he has essentially been doing what the

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Speaker 4: other guy's been doing. You're just getting longer odds on him,

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Speaker 4: and he's a guy who has the pat agree. We've

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Speaker 4: seen him put up massive seasons in the past, the

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Speaker 4: forty two homer season in twenty twenty one, his MVP

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Speaker 4: worthy twenty twenty three, The numbers weren't quite there, but

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Speaker 4: we've seen this kind of season from him before. It

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Speaker 4: does seem like a couple of years remove now from

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Speaker 4: all the shoulder problems and the ped worries, that he

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Speaker 4: is finally having his true breakout season, and it wouldn't

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Speaker 4: surprise me at all to see him take home MVP

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Speaker 4: this year.

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Speaker 1: Well, SHO, do you have any concern with Tatusa's injury

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Speaker 1: history and that maybe that pops back up this season.

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Speaker 1: That would be maybe the only thing that could possibly

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Speaker 1: deter betters maybe from going away from this five to

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Speaker 1: one or plus seven to fifty number whatever, you're getting

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Speaker 1: it out there as sure.

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Speaker 3: I mean, but I would say, like I think all

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Speaker 3: these guys have there's some injury works. If Carol's had

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Speaker 3: the shoulder injuries, obviously, if Hotani starts pitching again, I

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Speaker 3: think there's something that's weird. There a weird thing that's

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Speaker 3: happened too, is you know, I'm talking to Tani. I

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Speaker 3: give you maybe there's a little bit of Carrol and

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Speaker 3: then you got Tatis. You also have a divisional fight.

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Speaker 3: The inn A West is really tough. Yes, you could

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Speaker 3: have whoever just puts themselves at the top. If the

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Speaker 3: if the Padres pushed themselves above the Dodgers somehow for

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Speaker 3: the season, Fernando Tatis is going to be the guy

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Speaker 3: that everyone's staring at. So where you finish in the

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Speaker 3: division could be really important to it. And you know,

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Speaker 3: just slightly, we haven't talked about Kyle Tucker. Kyle Tucker

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Speaker 3: is performing at this level as well. He deserves to

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Speaker 3: be in it. We're gonna have to watch where the

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Speaker 3: Cubs go. The Cubs really a struggling rotation, and if

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Speaker 3: they start to lose some games and lose a little

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Speaker 3: bit of traction in that divis to the Brewers, it

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Speaker 3: might hold him back. But yeah, I think there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of injury worries across the board. And that's why,

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Speaker 3: by the way, I don't get too caught in to like, hey,

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Speaker 3: this is like the coolest value. Unfortunately in this betting

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Speaker 3: market of MVP, Judge and O'tani are just walking in

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Speaker 3: as not just like yes books odds on favorite, but

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Speaker 3: like they've already got the advantage. So it's like, if

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Speaker 3: they're performing at their level, it's going to take so

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Speaker 3: much more for another guy to take it. That's why

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Speaker 3: when you're getting plus you know, two to one money

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Speaker 3: on Otani, when you're looking at Judge being like minus

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Speaker 3: a thousand, Yeah, at this point, like it just makes

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Speaker 3: a lot of sense.

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Speaker 2: But injury worries.

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Speaker 3: You got to play this all in and shop around

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Speaker 3: on the books. You said, we already found some cool

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Speaker 3: thing about betting pros is you can get all the

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Speaker 3: lines of all the books in one place. You can

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Speaker 3: go in and you can find the right books that

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Speaker 3: also might let you pay out a little bit more

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Speaker 3: throughout the season if you do those long odd ones

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Speaker 3: and you want to cash out mid season. So shop

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Speaker 3: all your lines over on betting pros for MVP or

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Speaker 3: any of the other markets.

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Speaker 2: We're about to talk about.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Fandal is definitely my favorite place to place future

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Speaker 1: bets because they're always so aggressive in hedging and trying

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Speaker 1: to get you cash buying out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So moving to the cy Young market. In the AL,

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Speaker 1: the favorites remained very similar to what we saw preseason.

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Speaker 1: Reigning Al Cy Young winner Tarique Scuball for the Tigers,

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Speaker 1: He's moved from plus three to fifty down to plus

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Speaker 1: two thirty. Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox, he went

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Speaker 1: from plus five to fifty down to three to one. However,

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Speaker 1: we did see Cole Reagan's injury see him be replaced

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Speaker 1: by the Yankees Max Freed at plus five fifty and

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Speaker 1: at the Astros Hunter Brown also plus five fifty. In

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Speaker 1: the NL, your betting favorites are still Pittsburgh's Paul Skien.

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Speaker 1: He's moved from three to one down to plus two

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Speaker 1: to seventy. Kind of getting shit. I don't want to

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Speaker 1: say shelled lately, but definitely some up and down performances

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Speaker 1: from Skiens, but the Dodgers Yoshi Nobu Yamamito to the Reds,

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Speaker 1: Hunter Green plus four to fifty. These are two other

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Speaker 1: guys who've kind of joined this conversation. Joe, are you

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Speaker 1: seeing any newfound value for who could be the best

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Speaker 1: pitcher in baseball?

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Speaker 4: I'm sticking with my guns from the preseason, and I've

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Speaker 4: been kind of tied to this player for a while,

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Speaker 4: and I've been pretty impressed with the early return. So

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Speaker 4: I'm sticking with my guns and going with Jacob de

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Speaker 4: Grom here getting at sixteen to one. You know, I

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Speaker 4: know there are mixed opinions on Jacob de Gram, but

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Speaker 4: what we've seen through seven starts is a two to

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Speaker 4: sixty one era, a one zero zero whip. He's got

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Speaker 4: a couple of wins already. Things are going well. The

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Speaker 4: strikeouts haven't been quite where we'd expect them to be

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Speaker 4: for Jacob de Grom. In thirty eight innings he has

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Speaker 4: thirty six strikeouts, but those are starting to come along

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Speaker 4: a little bit. I've mentioned this on a few different

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Speaker 4: vetting pros and Fantasy pro shows that de Gram is

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Speaker 4: kind of learning how to pitch again at a lower velocity.

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Speaker 4: Instead of going ninety eight, ninety nine, one hundred, he's

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Speaker 4: trying to sit more in the ninety six ninety seven

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Speaker 4: range and limit his injury risk, and so far that.

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Speaker 5: Is working out.

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Speaker 4: Now, I think that is going to continue to work out,

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Speaker 4: and as he continues to work at this level, he

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Speaker 4: is going to improve. De Gram has been a max

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Speaker 4: effort guy for his entire career, and I think that

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Speaker 4: adjustment period is why we saw couple of shakier starts

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Speaker 4: to begin the season. But now he seems pretty locked in,

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Speaker 4: and I think we're going to continue to see these

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Speaker 4: ratios at this same kind of level. He's going to

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Speaker 4: have a mid twes era, maybe that whip dips below one.

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Speaker 4: And I think considering the name value, considering the way

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Speaker 4: that people this is not a statistical thing, but I

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Speaker 4: think people kind of feel bad for Jacob de Gram

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Speaker 4: a little bit that his whole career has kind of

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Speaker 4: been his whole career, but the majority of his thirty's

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Speaker 4: have kind of been cut out due to injury. If

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Speaker 4: he's able to throw one hundred and seventy innings this

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Speaker 4: year and give you a two four ERA and a

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Speaker 4: one zero zero whip, I think there's gonna be a

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Speaker 4: lot of voters who are going to be partial towards him,

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Speaker 4: not just because of that. The numbers will also be great,

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Speaker 4: I think, but there will also be part of that

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Speaker 4: narrative that you need in these awards. Sometimes of de

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Speaker 4: Gram is one of the best pitchers you've ever seen.

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Speaker 4: He hasn't been able to stay healthy, but we can

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Speaker 4: give him kind of one last hurrah here by sending

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Speaker 4: him off with this third SiO.

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Speaker 3: One thing I want to throw out why you might

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Speaker 3: not want to feel too bad for Jacob deGrom. I

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Speaker 3: think of this story my good Fernino Sarahs just told

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Speaker 3: I think it was on foul Territory a month or

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Speaker 3: so back about when he was a young reporter. He

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Speaker 3: went into a locker room to interview Jacob de Gram

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Speaker 3: and he said, oh, hey, do you have some time?

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Speaker 3: And he's like, nope. And then Jacob de Gram sat

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Speaker 3: down in a chair with a bag of chips and

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Speaker 3: individually pulled out chips and stared at eno while he

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Speaker 3: said he was too busy. So I don't think we

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Speaker 3: feel too bad for Jacob d Gram.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, do you also like a long shot

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Speaker 1: like a Rico's going or do you like maybe one

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Speaker 1: of these heavier favorites.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so in this smart. I'm still kind of boring.

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Speaker 3: I'm just gonna throw that out here for it. You know,

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Speaker 3: people want like the big numbers. But I will say this,

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Speaker 3: if you're in a favorites market, I think it is

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Speaker 3: actually a really cool idea to find something like this.

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Speaker 3: So for example, Trek Scuble in the AL, if I

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Speaker 3: were betting it, I think that's the play right now. Okay,

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Speaker 3: I will say I kind of like Max Freed. Max

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Speaker 3: Freed's already got six wins right now. He might end

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Speaker 3: up pushing eighteen nineteen wins and that I think he's

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Speaker 3: a sneaky one. But that wasn't my point. Jacob de

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Speaker 3: Gram Jacob Gram at sixteen to one, betting a nice

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Speaker 3: odds on favorite with a good stack and then having

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Speaker 3: a sixteen to one if it does bounce like that,

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Speaker 3: you know, if you're in the right market, you can

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Speaker 3: buy out. It's a fun hedge in the cy Young place,

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Speaker 3: so same thing in the NL. I'm kind of boring.

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Speaker 3: I'm still on schemes. Even those skeens has been relatively

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Speaker 3: like underwhelming overall. He's still got a two seven seven era.

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Speaker 3: That's great, but he has more losses than wins right now.

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Speaker 3: His K percentage is down. He was thirty three percent

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Speaker 3: last year, He's only twenty four percent this year. Cap

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Speaker 3: per nine has been down and things are inflated a

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Speaker 3: little bit though, because he has got this weird thing

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Speaker 3: against the Cardinals. He's given up fifteen earned runs as

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Speaker 3: we are recording this. Seven of those earned runs have

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Speaker 3: come against the Saint Louis Cardinals. They just own him,

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Speaker 3: So I don't know really necessarily what at the end

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Speaker 3: of the day that means, but there's some sometimes you know,

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Speaker 3: teams just own a certain player, So if you know

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Speaker 3: Zach Allen is doing that with any New York based team.

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Speaker 3: But what I'm getting at is here, even in the struggles,

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Speaker 3: even though Cardinals have kind of hit him up, CA

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Speaker 3: percentage is down a bit, he has a better expected

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Speaker 3: era than actual era right now, and the win should

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Speaker 3: start stacking up. And he is still the most electric

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Speaker 3: pitcher in baseball, and you're getting like almost three to

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Speaker 3: one odds. So I think that's a really, really good play.

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Speaker 3: But I think another guy that you could take a

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Speaker 3: look at if you want to go to a higher market,

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Speaker 3: and I think this one is a little misplaced, is

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Speaker 3: Zach Wheeler. Zach Wheeler's got a three three five VRA

340
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Speaker 3: right now through eight starts, only three wins to one loss,

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Speaker 3: but as one of the best expected the rays in

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Speaker 3: baseball at two three six, So that's a full run

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Speaker 3: lower expected batting average on a monster of a team

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Speaker 3: with the Phillies tons of runs support, and he has

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Speaker 3: been one of the best pitchers in baseball eleven to one.

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Speaker 3: So if I'm going to play that head, if this

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Speaker 3: is what you like to do in this pitching market,

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Speaker 3: I think Skeins is the play. You know, if he

349
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Speaker 3: were if he had five wins and one loss and

350
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Speaker 3: you know the Semira, but with like a ten k

351
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Speaker 3: per nine, he would be minus like two fifty right now.

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Speaker 3: I think Chris Sale's really struggling. He's bouncing back, but

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Speaker 3: it's going to take a long time for a to

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Speaker 3: bounce back. I think this is good value, and I

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Speaker 3: think Zach Wheeler would be a hedge play at eleven

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Speaker 3: to one that I would put in for Cy Young.

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Speaker 1: Awesome some Pennsylvania based pitchers there for the Welsh in

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Speaker 1: the Cy Young markets. Before we continue, don't forget to

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Speaker 1: try out our Betting Pros Betting Systems tool, which is

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Speaker 1: designed to help you find winning strategies and make smarter bets.

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363
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364
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00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:31,600
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Speaker 1: start making smarter bets today. All right, let's go ahead

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Speaker 1: and move into the heavier juice markets, like the season

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Speaker 1: win totals or that to make the playoffs. Well, you

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Speaker 1: already have a three to one ticket on the Reds

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Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. How are you feeling about that?

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Speaker 1: And what's your current favorite value for these markets?

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Speaker 2: How am I feeling about that one?

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Speaker 3: I'm I'm not like loving it because they're like halfway

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Speaker 3: through the division, Cubs are kind of coming back brew

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Speaker 3: I mean, listen, they're four back totally in the division.

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Speaker 3: They're right there with the Brewers to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: They're still a decent shot if one of those guys

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Speaker 3: bounce back. So I would say I'm kind of middling

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Speaker 3: on that. The Cardinals I think are going to taper

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Speaker 3: back in Pittsburgh, so I mean like they're they're competitive

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Speaker 3: in it. But when looking at this, I don't see

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Speaker 3: a lot of tickets for like still to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: But you can.

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Speaker 3: I mean there's there's definitely a few that are still

386
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Speaker 3: out there, but you're not going to find these big,

387
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Speaker 3: crazy odds unless you want to play like a you know,

388
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Speaker 3: a Pirates or something like that. But one that really

389
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Speaker 3: stood out to me is the Boston Red Sox. I

390
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Speaker 3: think this was over on I want to say this

391
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Speaker 3: might have been on DK, but to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: They're one of the few plus money plays out there.

393
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Speaker 3: Plus one oh five for the Red Sox to make

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Speaker 3: the playoffs. And you know, it's been competitive to a

395
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Speaker 3: degree in the AL I mean the Ale Central, between Detroit, Cleveland,

396
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Speaker 3: and Kansas City, they've all been monsters. They've got better

397
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Speaker 3: records than anybody. By the way, all three of those

398
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Speaker 3: teams have a better record than any team in the

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Speaker 3: Ale East right now, which is crazy.

400
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Speaker 2: But here's the deal.

401
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Speaker 3: I think you can play this to win the division.

402
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Speaker 3: I think it's still three to one for the Red Sox,

403
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Speaker 3: but just to make the playoff the Red Sox, it's

404
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Speaker 3: plus money. They are two and a half game back

405
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Speaker 3: on the Yankees right now. They're up on Tampa. Toronto

406
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Speaker 3: and Baltimore are both kind of faltering. Tampa I don't

407
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Speaker 3: think can hold to it, and I think Boston just

408
00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:22,240
Speaker 3: hasn't even gotten going yet. I mean, Garrett Crochet is

409
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Speaker 3: still kind of finding his legs. There's getting a few

410
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Speaker 3: guys healthy. I mean, they've got to get Bueller back

411
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Speaker 3: gi Alito. I think they're going to be aggressive in

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Speaker 3: the trade market, and I like them to still win

413
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Speaker 3: the division pinning whatever price you can get, but to

414
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Speaker 3: make the playoffs at plus money, I am not going

415
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,000
Speaker 3: to count out the Red Sox that have got a

416
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Speaker 3: couple of great arms in the bullpen.

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Speaker 2: They're led by Garrett Crochet, They've.

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Speaker 3: Got a bevy of minor league talent that they can

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Speaker 3: use in trade assets, and they've got an offense that's

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Speaker 3: centered around Alex Bregman, who is like, you know.

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Speaker 2: It's pseudo MVP.

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Speaker 3: Like if the Red Sox are playing a little bit

423
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Speaker 3: better and Judge wasn't there, like I think he would

424
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Speaker 3: be an interesting ticket. So I think plus money for

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Speaker 3: the Reds and make the playoff right now is a

426
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Speaker 3: really great bet to make in May.

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Speaker 1: Joe, you were riding with the Twins in the preseason

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Speaker 1: to make the playoffs at even money. Are you still

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00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:10,960
Speaker 1: holding out hope for that to cash or are you

430
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Speaker 1: looking maybe to potentially hedge elsewhere in the al Central.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: No, I do like that Twins bet, and I'm going

433
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Speaker 4: to talk about it a little bit later on. But

434
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Speaker 4: the one that I'm going to focus in on right

435
00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:25,080
Speaker 4: now is the Detroit Tigers under ninety one and a

436
00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 4: half wins. This one, for me, I think they're just

437
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,919
Speaker 4: off to an unsustainably hot start. And if I go

438
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 4: back to last season, I was looking at where they

439
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:36,400
Speaker 4: were in the standings at the end of August. They

440
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 4: were a five hundred team and they had a really

441
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,360
Speaker 4: hot September that rode them into the playoffs. And they

442
00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:43,760
Speaker 4: have started off the season incredibly well. But I think

443
00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:46,800
Speaker 4: there's a lot of overperformers. Spencer Torkelson has a one

444
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:49,439
Speaker 4: to fifty WRC plus. I like Spencer Torkleson, but that

445
00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 4: number is not going to stick. Havevi Baiez a one

446
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,399
Speaker 4: thirty nine WRC plus one thirty eight for Glaber Torres,

447
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,960
Speaker 4: one thirty for Zach McKinstry, one twenty eight for Dylan Dingler.

448
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,640
Speaker 4: They're overperformed offensively. This was an eighty six win team

449
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:04,960
Speaker 4: last year that so far has been one of the

450
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,680
Speaker 4: best teams in baseball, and it just doesn't feel all

451
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,680
Speaker 4: that sustainable. As a team, they've been a top five offense.

452
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,240
Speaker 4: Does anybody think that's going to continue, because I really don't,

453
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,480
Speaker 4: And I think you're seeing this number now set about

454
00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,160
Speaker 4: five or six wins above where they were last year.

455
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,439
Speaker 4: I don't think they're five or six wins better than

456
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 4: last year. I think they're exactly about where they were.

457
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:26,359
Speaker 4: If you factor in that, there may be a little

458
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:28,480
Speaker 4: bit better than they all maybe spread out some of

459
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,440
Speaker 4: those wins throughout the season as opposed to just stockpiling

460
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:33,840
Speaker 4: them in September like they did last year. But I

461
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 4: think this is a maybe a five hundred team, maybe

462
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,879
Speaker 4: a slightly above five hundred team. Wow, their bullpen is

463
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:43,200
Speaker 4: not really that impressive. Yes, Scooble is fantastic, But outside

464
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,680
Speaker 4: of Schooble, I don't really know how much I trust

465
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,399
Speaker 4: the rest of the rotation. I like Jack Flaherty, but

466
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:51,280
Speaker 4: I don't know how much I can actually trust him.

467
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 4: Reese Olsen, Jackson, Joe Casey, Maiz. There is some potential

468
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 4: in the starting rotation, but overall, it really comes back

469
00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 4: to the offense overperforming. Specifically, you see guys like hove

470
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 4: baias forty percent above league average at this point of

471
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,960
Speaker 4: the season, it tells you how early things still are.

472
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,399
Speaker 4: So I think the Tigers under ninety one and a half.

473
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 4: Look for the highest number you can find and take

474
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:14,199
Speaker 4: the under, usually at about minus one to ten. I

475
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 4: don't think they're a ninety plus win team.

476
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 1: Well, do you also see maybe some regression coming for Detroit.

477
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:22,320
Speaker 2: I think there's some regression in play.

478
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:24,119
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if I think that they're just like

479
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 3: a five hundred team, But also if I don't know,

480
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:29,640
Speaker 3: if we're doing this every month, if we come back

481
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:31,960
Speaker 3: in June, I'm not going to be surprised if they're

482
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:35,080
Speaker 3: third in this division and Cleveland City have jumped over them.

483
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:37,399
Speaker 3: I mean, I think I think Kansas City's kind of

484
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 3: a sleeping sleeping Giants, a little dramatic, like they just

485
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 3: their offense was just so bad and they're starting to

486
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:44,680
Speaker 3: click free.

487
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 2: Jack cagleiwan just give them to the majors.

488
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,239
Speaker 3: Maybe make a move or two, but I think their

489
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:50,879
Speaker 3: rotations solid. They get a great bullpen. I think Kansas

490
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 3: City's gonna bounce back. Cleveland. You just can never count

491
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 3: them out and they're going to keep rocking. So I

492
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,640
Speaker 3: won't be surprised if Detroit is third in this division,

493
00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,440
Speaker 3: but it's still gonna be relatively tight.

494
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,639
Speaker 1: Okay, before we keep it going, I just wanted to

495
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,920
Speaker 1: remind everyone that Fantasy Pros is now live on Twitch.

496
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,400
Speaker 1: Since opening day, Joe Pisapia and Chris Welsh have been

497
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 1: here every weekday at twelve pm Eastern Time for leading

498
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 1: off your daily dose of all things baseball, from news, notes, bets,

499
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 1: and fantasy advice. It's all in one place. Ask questions,

500
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 1: get insight, and interact live falls now on Twitch dot tv,

501
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,439
Speaker 1: slash Fantasy Pros and never miss a stream. A bigger

502
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,880
Speaker 1: line of exclusive interactive live content is on the way

503
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 1: and well, from Luchador mass to Mario Brothers Themes. You

504
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:36,960
Speaker 1: guys do a little bit of everything, and you have

505
00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 1: a lot of fun doing it. So I love every

506
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 1: day I get to go in and edit some of

507
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 1: these episodes that you guys do and they're just fantastic.

508
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 1: They're law fun man.

509
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, you say it nicely, but we are stupid. Embrace

510
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 3: stupid when we possibly can try to have some fun

511
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:54,640
Speaker 3: with baseball. Baseball can be a very mind numbing sports sometime,

512
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 3: especially for people here on betting pros, you know that

513
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,400
Speaker 3: are just kind of like wrapping their heads and kind

514
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,400
Speaker 3: of getting around baseball betting. And we try to put

515
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,439
Speaker 3: as much fun into baseball as possible when you know,

516
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 3: you get way over your head with everything that is MLB.

517
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, and overrun leading off too. They do their daily

518
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 1: best bets and their home run calls. So if you

519
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: guys are looking for more MLB betting advice making, make

520
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 1: sure you're checking out leading off. Let's go ahead, though,

521
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the to win the division odds,

522
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: where there were some incredibly short odds to begin this

523
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,119
Speaker 1: season that some look like pretty good bets.

524
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 5: Now.

525
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 1: The Dodgers they're still right around that minus four to

526
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 1: ten mark to win the NL West. The Chicago Cubs

527
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 1: went from plus one twenty five to win the NL

528
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 1: Central to now minus two to twenty five. The Yankees

529
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:38,880
Speaker 1: they were at plus one sixty to win their division.

530
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 1: They're now down to minus one thirty five to win

531
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 1: the Al East Joe in a market of such juiced odds,

532
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 1: Do you have anything a bit longer that might wet

533
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 1: the whistle of baseball betters.

534
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:50,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, to kind of go back to what I was

535
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 4: mentioning earlier, what you brought up, the Minnesota Twins.

536
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 5: Are still very interesting team to me.

537
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 4: It hasn't been a great start to the season, for sure,

538
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 4: and I think a lot of that does come down

539
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 4: to their offense underperforming. This is a team that had

540
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 4: a one oh seven WRC plus as a team last

541
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 4: year and they're down at ninety five right now, So

542
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 4: that is something that I don't really expect to continue

543
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 4: at that pace.

544
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,200
Speaker 5: You got some guys who are underperforming.

545
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 4: They just got Royce Lewis back, which I hope you

546
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 4: never know with Royce Lewis, but I hope he's able

547
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 4: to actually stay healthy for a while and give them

548
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 4: some production. But you had Byron Buxton who's been doing

549
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 4: very well, Carlos care has kind of been underperforming. The

550
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,400
Speaker 4: offense hasn't been all that impressive. But I just come

551
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 4: back to this pitching more often than not, and especially

552
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 4: when you got David Festa and Zebbie Matthews still waiting

553
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 4: to come up. But Ryan Ober Pablo Lopez has been

554
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 4: fantastic the bullpen. I'm a big fan of their Penn

555
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:41,919
Speaker 4: Griffin Jacks got off to a bad start, but he

556
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 4: has kind of turned things around, you know. Joan Duran

557
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:46,439
Speaker 4: is still doing him doing his things.

558
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 5: But I think it comes down to the weakness of

559
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 5: the division overall.

560
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 4: Kansas City is, like well said, they're a better team

561
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,120
Speaker 4: than what they have played to so far, but I'm

562
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 4: not sure exactly how great they're going to be this season.

563
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 4: The offense, maybe once they get jacked the things will change,

564
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 4: but it hasn't been a great offense. They're pitching is eh,

565
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 4: a little bit iffy, especially with the Cole Reagan's not

566
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 4: injury like he was heard, he's kind of we're not

567
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 4: really sure we're exactly on his health status because he

568
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 4: had a good game the other night. He's kind of

569
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 4: bounced back and forth. But the White Sox stink. The

570
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:19,639
Speaker 4: Tigers I think are overperforming. The Guardians I think are okay.

571
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 4: But this is a winnable division essentially, is what I'm saying.

572
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 4: And I think the Twins are thirteenth or fourteenth in

573
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 4: terms of team wins above replacement to this point of

574
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 4: the season, but they have really underperformed in terms of

575
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 4: the results. So I think you're getting them at plus

576
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 4: twelve hundred. Again, shop that line around, maybe you'll get

577
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 4: an even better line. But the key point here is

578
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 4: it is a very winnable division at plus twelve hundred.

579
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 4: I think it's a solid bet to make on a

580
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 4: Twins team that last year was a very good team

581
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 4: and just ended up disappointing at the end, but I

582
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:48,919
Speaker 4: don't expect that to continue this season.

583
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 1: Joe Rico doubling down on the Minnesota Twins. I don't

584
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 1: hate that twelve to one number at all to win

585
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 1: the Central What about you, Welsh? Is there a team

586
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 1: out there that might still have some value in this

587
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 1: market after we're about a month into the season so far.

588
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I mentioned like the Red Sox. You know

589
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,120
Speaker 3: they're decent. You're gonna get good plus money on them

590
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 3: to win a division. But I'm not picking them because

591
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 3: the standout to me is at almost three to one

592
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 3: the Texas Rangers. The Texas Rangers for the AL West.

593
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 3: The AL West right now is filled up at the

594
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,159
Speaker 3: top with the Seattle Mariners and the Athletics. The Sacramento

595
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 3: Athletics right now are above them either Texas team. To

596
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 3: be honest with you, as a play if you wanted

597
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,439
Speaker 3: to go with the Astros. But here's the deal. The

598
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:33,120
Speaker 3: offense for the Mariners has definitely clicked. I think they're overperforming.

599
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 3: They're built around there pitching. Kirby's going to be back,

600
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 3: and Logan Gilbert looks like it's not like too serious,

601
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 3: but it could be about a month. All of that

602
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 3: to say, for them to be leading the division with

603
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 3: those type of injuries works really well for them. But

604
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 3: I think they're overperforming. I do not believe the Athletics

605
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:50,879
Speaker 3: in that ballpark and that pitching that they're going to

606
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 3: hold through. Great story, it's super fun. Win total was

607
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 3: a great bet for you this year. I think we

608
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 3: even might have had that on Fantasy Fest when we

609
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 3: had Derek Cardi. I think that might have been one

610
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 3: of his bets if I remember the a's on the wins.

611
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 3: But with the Rangers, this is a this is like

612
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,199
Speaker 3: a favorite. This is a minus money favorite that's out

613
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 3: there that they have been massively underperforming. For perspective too,

614
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,719
Speaker 3: they just went three and seven in their last ten games.

615
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:16,919
Speaker 3: They're only three and a half games behind in the division.

616
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 3: Even in those struggles. Wow, you've had Marcus Simeon struggling,

617
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,639
Speaker 3: Jake Berger was sent down. They just brought back Evan Carter,

618
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 3: and they're dealing with the rotation stuff. They're built around

619
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 3: Jacob de Grom and Evaldi. They've got to be aggressive

620
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 3: in the trade market. I want to see them bring

621
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 3: in someone for the bullpen. Bringing to Ryan Helsley, I

622
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 3: think that's going to really lock them in. And we're

623
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 3: just waiting for these bats to start coming alive, because

624
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 3: from top to bottom it's a killer offense.

625
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 2: So to be three and.

626
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 3: A half games back in the division in May and

627
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 3: get almost three to one odds, I'm taking it all day.

628
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 3: I think this is like the most smashing in my

629
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 3: face play. It doesn't have the great like twelve to

630
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 3: one odds can buy it down and stuff as time

631
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 3: goes on. But if you're looking for a straight play

632
00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,439
Speaker 3: for a team to win the division, I think the

633
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,879
Speaker 3: Astros are a little bit behind offensively. In general, pitching

634
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 3: is a hunter. Brown's been amazing, but taking a step back.

635
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,680
Speaker 3: Texas Rangers absolutely jump out to me. At almost three

636
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 3: to one as a bet to win the division.

637
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 1: Okay, so Welsh liking Texas. As we approach the dog

638
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 1: days of summer, Let's go ahead and move into the

639
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 1: World Series odds, which have seen some serious movement in

640
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: recent weeks at DraftKings, specifically where the Dodgers have gone

641
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 1: from plus two ninety down to plus two to fifty,

642
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 1: the Mets now in the conversation at plus eight fifty,

643
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 1: and the Yankees have actually grown from plus eight fifty

644
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,199
Speaker 1: to now nine to one. Welsh, is there any value

645
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 1: out there that we're not talking about right now for

646
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 1: a team to potentially win it all?

647
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 3: Kind of kind of double down on where I was

648
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 3: in the preseason and kind of like a Rico was saying,

649
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 3: Dodgers are kind of the play. But if you're looking

650
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 3: for value, I'm gonna go back to the Boston Red Sox.

651
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 5: Oh.

652
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 2: You know, they have been weird. It's been weird to

653
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:51,719
Speaker 2: start this season.

654
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 3: Crochet is at his like little tiny moments and Walker

655
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 3: Bueler got hurt in the offense wasn't clicking and then

656
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 3: obviously they just lost Tristan Costas. That feels like a

657
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:00,640
Speaker 3: death sentence.

658
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 2: I will say this.

659
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 3: If they hold on to this hole, we're gonna play

660
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 3: Abraham Toro and Rome Gonzalez at first base.

661
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 6: Thing.

662
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 2: I'm gonna riot and freak out because.

663
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:11,120
Speaker 3: They have too many good players that are out there

664
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 3: that you put Devers at first and bring Roman Anthony

665
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 3: up or make a trade. I think this team is

666
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:19,160
Speaker 3: too talented. While I think this division is very gettable.

667
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 3: The Yankees have been playing up, but they have suffered

668
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,400
Speaker 3: some major injuries, had some offensive woes. Max Fried has

669
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 3: held them up, but there are some warts on that team.

670
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 3: Where the Boston Red Sox I think they have held

671
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 3: their own. I think they can bounce back, and they're

672
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 3: led by a powerful top end of the offense and

673
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 3: a great top end of the rotation, and I think

674
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 3: Garrett Croche can really hold them through.

675
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 2: So I think they have the pieces.

676
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 3: It's like you got defense, you got pitching, you got bullpen,

677
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 3: you got offense. You just need them all to click.

678
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 3: It's very early in the season, twenty to one, twenty

679
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 3: to one at this point, so you're looking for some

680
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 3: value on there. If they end up taking say here's

681
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 3: the other thing, if you're wanting to buy out. If

682
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 3: they end up taking back this Division. It's gonna cut

683
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 3: in half. It's gonna slice in half. You're gonna be

684
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 3: looking at like nine to one or eight to one,

685
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 3: and there's gonna be buyout opportunities if you want so.

686
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 3: I think the Dodgers is an easy play. But my

687
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 3: hedge play would be the Boston Red Sox.

688
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: Okay, Joe, you already had a preseason Dodgers ticket out

689
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 1: there around that plus two ninety mark. Are you sticking

690
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 1: with them or is there a different hedge that you

691
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: may be like?

692
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 4: No, I mean there's a couple teams that are like

693
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 4: Mets are looking good and you could maybe.

694
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 5: Play around a little bit, But it's the Dodgers.

695
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 4: I mean, the Dodgers have faced so much already in

696
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 4: terms of guys missing time. They just brought up Land

697
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 4: and Knak, who I figured we'd see at some point,

698
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 4: but I didn't think he'd be in the rotation necessarily

699
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 4: at this point of the season. But Edmund's on the

700
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 4: eel ta Oscar Hernandez. If you look at the pitching injuries,

701
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 4: it's ridiculous with Glass now Kershaw, Snell, and yet they're

702
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 4: twenty four and twelve right, They're they're just too I

703
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 4: don't know if we use this term in the preseason show,

704
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 4: but they're almost too big to fail. They're almost they're

705
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 4: almost too good and too deep that even if they

706
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 4: have six injuries like they have right now, it doesn't

707
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 4: really matter. They're just so so deep. The bulpin is strong.

708
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 4: There are like ten or twelve vibe pitchers on the

709
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 4: depth chart. The lineup has three MVPs. It's just they're

710
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,959
Speaker 4: too good and you're getting him at plus two thirty

711
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 4: plus two fifty. Maybe in some places I would hammer

712
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 4: that all day.

713
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 1: Okay, we'll go ahead and round out the program with

714
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 1: a guy's favorite futures long shot, starting with you, Joe,

715
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: who is in fact revisiting the World Series market.

716
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, so if you are gonna go deep, then I

717
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 4: think the Atlanta Braves are somewhat interesting here. And a

718
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 4: lot of it comes down to pitching wins championships a

719
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 4: lot of the time, and they have a three headed monster,

720
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 4: or they will have a three headed monster by the

721
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 4: time the playoffs come around. With Sale with Schwellenbach and

722
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 4: hopefully with Spencer Stryder. Now I know that it hasn't

723
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 4: been exactly all smooth sailing for him so far.

724
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 5: This season.

725
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 4: I think that by the time we're looking at September October,

726
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 4: he should be healthy. And this lineup is also a

727
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 4: team that you know, I know that they have kind

728
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 4: of disappointed to this to this point of the season,

729
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 4: but when you're looking at Riley Ozuna, Olsen, Alby's, Mike Harris,

730
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 4: with ron To Kunya soon to be back, I think

731
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 4: that this team does have enough juice to push their

732
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 4: way to the World Series should they get into the playoffs. Now,

733
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 4: it's a tricky division. There's a lot of good teams

734
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 4: in that division. Right now, they're seventeen and eighteen, but

735
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 4: they're only five games back, and I think that once

736
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 4: they get Strider back, once they get a COONa back,

737
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 4: we're going to start to see this team perform like

738
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 4: we've seen them perform outside of the last year and

739
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 4: a half or so, and they're a ninety five plus

740
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 4: win team when all is going well. But I really

741
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 4: think it comes down to their strength of pitching. Once

742
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 4: we get into the postseason. You really only need three,

743
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 4: maybe four starting pitchers once you get into October, and

744
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 4: they have about as good of a big three as you're.

745
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 5: Going to find.

746
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,959
Speaker 4: And then Grant Holmes. There's no slouch himself there as

747
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 4: the fourth guy. Like, they're really deep on all sides

748
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 4: of the ball right now. Alex Radugo leading off might

749
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 4: make some people say, what are you talking about?

750
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 5: They're not.

751
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 4: But once they get a Conya back, once they get

752
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 4: Strider back, I think that the wheels are going to

753
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 4: be up on this team.

754
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 1: Okay, So hoping for health is Joe Rico with the

755
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 1: Braves World Series call at fifteen to one. Welsh, you

756
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: gave us a very interesting Garrett Crochet to lead the

757
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 1: MLB in strikeouts at ten to one to begin the season.

758
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 1: Do you maybe have another one of these season long

759
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: player props we should be getting invested with?

760
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 3: All right, what if I told you there's a player

761
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 3: that hit ninety eight homers between twenty twenty three and

762
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. What if I told you if this

763
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 3: player hit over fifty homers last year? Still intrigued?

764
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 1: Maybe?

765
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 4: Yeah?

766
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 3: Now what if I told you that player you can

767
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 3: get eight to one odds.

768
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 2: To lead the league in home runs? Wow, Shoeo Tani.

769
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 3: DK's got it right there. Eight to one for sho

770
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 3: Hao Tani to lead the league in homers. The two

771
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 3: current leaders are guys that struggle to hit two forty

772
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 3: or two fifty, and Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Raley obviously

773
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 3: number three at eleven. Those two guys are tied with

774
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 3: twelve homers. The next guy up is Aaron Judge, who

775
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 3: is like far and beyond the top leae. It's like,

776
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 3: I think it's minus money or it's like plus one

777
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 3: hundred or whatever. It's there's no value em betting Aaron Judge.

778
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 3: But number four in the league is shoe Hayo Tani

779
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 3: who's already got ten homers and hasn't really even gotten

780
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 3: going hit fifty four last year, and you can get

781
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 3: eight to one odds on it. Is Judge going to

782
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 3: take it?

783
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 2: It's very likely, But.

784
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 3: I'm not going to bet Corvin Carroll who's got ten homers.

785
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 3: I'm not going to bet Spencer Torkal Center James would

786
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 3: even if you want all the crazy odds. I want

787
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 3: a high batting average player. Aaron Judge qualifies that that

788
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 3: guy might be a triple crown guy right now, and

789
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 3: that's why it's so exciting, and the odds are up

790
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 3: even though he doesn't have you know, eighteen homers or

791
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 3: something right now, guy's hitting four hundred, but Otani, that stadium,

792
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 3: that lineup, and that bat would just hit fifty four.

793
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 3: You want value, you want a long shot eight to

794
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 3: one for him to lead the league in homers. Seems

795
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 3: like a pretty pretty fun bet.

796
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 5: I like it.

797
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 1: What do you think, Joe, Is that a fun one

798
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 1: for you?

799
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 5: I do.

800
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 4: I wonder what it would look like if you're just

801
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 4: betting him to lead the National League in homers.

802
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 5: This probably wouldn't be as appealing of a number.

803
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 2: I don't bet it's in.

804
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 3: Probably really like two to one. Maybe you could probably

805
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 3: get like two to one or something along those.

806
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 4: Anything where you're kind of betting against Judge is interesting,

807
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 4: Like if there is a bet where it's like the

808
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 4: field versus Aaron Judge for MVP or for home runs

809
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 4: or you know, batting title, it might be wise. And

810
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:14,720
Speaker 4: I'm not sure what specific books will offer it, especially

811
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 4: at this point of the season, but if you can

812
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,400
Speaker 4: take the field in a lot of those markets, I

813
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 4: think it's definitely interesting, and Otani being the main one.

814
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,439
Speaker 4: If you are taking the field for the home run race.

815
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 4: I know Kyle Rawley's interesting, Alonzo's interesting, but like you mentioned,

816
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 4: Otani is going to be hitting three hundred or close

817
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:31,239
Speaker 4: to it, where those guys have a risk. I know

818
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 4: Alonzo's a three forty right now, but he's not going

819
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:36,759
Speaker 4: to maintain that pace. You could easily see Otani lead

820
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 4: the league in homers. If Judge misses a week or two,

821
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 4: a couple of weeks, then I wouldn't surprise me at all.

822
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 1: Okay, well, gentlemen, great analysis tonight. That is going to

823
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 1: do it for us on the Betting Pros Podcast. Thanks

824
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,320
Speaker 1: so much for watching. As always, the best freeway support

825
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 1: us is to give this video a thumbs up if

826
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,320
Speaker 1: you enjoy this type of content. Also subscribe to the

827
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: channel if you're new, and make sure you're downloading that

828
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 1: Betting Pros app and seeking your sportsbooks today. Hey for

829
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 1: Chris Welsh and Joe Rico, I'm Seth Wilcock. Take care

830
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 1: of y'all.

831
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:06,840
Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you

832
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,279
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833
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,719
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834
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,640
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835
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:19,400
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836
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,080
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