1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:19,600 Speaker 2: I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg, 3 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 2: and welcome to a bonus episode of Trumpanomics, the podcast 4 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 2: that looks at the economic world of Donald Trump, how 5 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 2: he's already shaped the global economy and what on earth 6 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 2: is going to happen next. And we thought we would 7 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 2: just throw your way another panel I did at the 8 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 2: twenty eighth annual Milken Institute Global Conference called US Economic 9 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:43,520 Speaker 2: Competitiveness in a Changing World, with guest Gary Cone, vice 10 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,520 Speaker 2: chairman of IBM but former senior player in the first 11 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 2: Trump administration, Peter Orsag, CEO and chairman of Blazard, but 12 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 2: also previously budget director for Barack Obama, and Kevin McCarthy, 13 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 2: the former Speaker of the US House of represent Sentives. 14 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 2: My opening question, given the title of the panel, was 15 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 2: what kind of US economy did they think would emerge 16 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 2: from the policies of Donald Trump? Would it be more 17 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 2: or less competitive and resilient than the US economy that 18 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 2: Donald Trump inherited at the start of the inn. 19 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 1: So, look, we're going to come out of this just fine, 20 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 1: go back and take a reflection on the US economy 21 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 1: let me see. We've lived through depressions, We've lived through recessions, 22 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 1: we've lived through COVID, we've lived through the financial crisis, 23 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:36,839 Speaker 1: and every time when we thought it was really bad, 24 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 1: it got a lot better. If you go ten years forward, 25 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 1: twenty years forward, if you have any duration of time, 26 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: this is an unbelievably resilient economy. The United States where 27 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: the reserve currency of the world. We're going to stay 28 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: the reserve currency of the world. We have huge capital here. 29 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 1: We've got a great corporate system that wants to invest 30 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: in this country. Look, we all have short term concerns. 31 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: Long term, we should be really excited where. 32 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 3: We're going with this country, Miss Speaker Kevin mccaffee. 33 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:08,239 Speaker 4: Look, they all talk economics. I think you ought to 34 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 4: get in the brains of the president. He's different this 35 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 4: time than the last time. Trump is a populist, but 36 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 4: there's two things that are principal to him. I always 37 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 4: have been tariffs and drugs cost too much. When he 38 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 4: says he's going to put a ten percent tariff on, 39 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 4: he'll put a ten percent terrify when he says it's 40 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 4: going to be twenty five or higher. That's all about negotiations. 41 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 4: We are in the middle of negotiations. He's also not 42 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 4: a rigid person that will not adapt. He's always negotiating. 43 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 4: So if you take him exactly what he's saying, you're 44 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,640 Speaker 4: going crazy. But what's happening is at the end of 45 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 4: the day, he's not going to have the shelves empty. 46 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 3: He knows he's got about sixty days to do something. 47 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:53,799 Speaker 3: I actually think we're. 48 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:55,399 Speaker 4: Going to be a lot better off, And I would 49 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 4: point to one part of the history for the same 50 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 4: reason we open the three communicates with China when we're 51 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 4: dealing in a cold war. This is going to be 52 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:08,400 Speaker 4: a reset in China. When we get an agreement with 53 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 4: India and Japan and the UK, it's going to be 54 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 4: much more positive for America. 55 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 3: Is their adjustment. 56 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 4: Is there disruption, yes, but in the long run it 57 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 4: will make us stronger. 58 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 2: Feed site. 59 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 5: Let's see three four really quick points on resilience. I 60 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 5: think we will be more micro resilient and less macro resilient, 61 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 5: by which I mean certain supply chains in pharma, etc. 62 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 5: Will be more secure, but from a macro perspective in 63 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 5: terms of our ability to project power abroad and our 64 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 5: ability to sustain the fiscal trajectory that we're on and 65 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 5: so on, I think. 66 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 3: We will be more vulnerable. 67 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 5: Second, we will have marginally higher manufacturing activity and manufacturing employment, 68 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 5: but nothing like the nineteen fifties shares of either. 69 00:03:57,840 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 3: The economy or employment. 70 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 5: Third, I think we need to be a bit careful 71 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 5: about I saw Simon Johnson in the hallway. The Nobel 72 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 5: Prize in Economics was awarded for the last year for 73 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 5: what drives long term growth? 74 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:17,480 Speaker 3: And rule of law. 75 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 5: Inclusive rather than extract of approaches to policy making are 76 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 5: all core to long term economic growth. And so we 77 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 5: just need to keep that in mind. And then final 78 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 5: point is, despite all of the discussion about tariffs, as 79 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 5: Nuriel Rabini put it, tech Trump's tariffs, if you look 80 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 5: out over the next three to five years, so what 81 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 5: is happening on the digital payment stack, what is happening 82 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 5: on the AI race, What is happening in quantum that 83 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 5: is going to turn out to be more important than 84 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 5: the next two or three months. 85 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 2: Gary Kahn, whether it's IBM or anywhere else, can you 86 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 2: respond into this changing incentives and support the kind of 87 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 2: investments that the government administration wants to see. When you 88 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 2: have zero clarity about what the twists rates are going 89 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 2: to be and what the future is going to be. 90 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: Look, I think all of us who run big companies, 91 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 1: who have run big companies, we have to think long term, 92 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: like no one's thinking of like we're thinking about the 93 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: next ninety days because we have to. But honestly, we're 94 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 1: making investments for a generational cycle. You know, everyone's talking 95 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: about AI today AI. A lot of the investment that 96 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 1: you're seeing in AI today didn't happen the last two, 97 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: three or four years. We'll get the quantum. I mean, 98 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,919 Speaker 1: the amount of money that IBM and others are putting 99 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: in the quantum today is just extraordinary. Quantum will pay 100 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: results five years I'll say, five years from now. So 101 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: we are making extraordinary investments in this country, in this economy. 102 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 1: The one place I'll caution, because I think we need 103 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 1: to talk about this to some extent, tax policy drives 104 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 1: investment decisions in this country. It's if you want to 105 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 1: boil down to any one major factor that drives decision 106 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 1: making in this country, it is tax policy. When we 107 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 1: changed our taxes in twenty seventeen, we affected corporate policy 108 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 1: more than anything else that's happened in this country in 109 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: the last thirty or forty years, when we deemed repatriation 110 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 1: of money back to the United States, we forced a 111 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: lot of this money back. When we changed the corporate 112 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: tax rate, we became competitive with the OECD. We changed 113 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 1: the way people thought about manufacturing and building businesses in 114 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 1: the United States. When we look at accelerated appreciation, when 115 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 1: we look at R and D credits, all of these 116 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 1: things matter and they will drive policy more than anything 117 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 1: else we're actually talking about. Because at the end of 118 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 1: the day, when you're running big companies, you're a fiduciary 119 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 1: for shareholder. You're trying to maximize the turn over a 120 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: long period of time, and taxes will drive a lot 121 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 1: of those decisions. So, look, one of the most important 122 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,040 Speaker 1: things that has to happen this year is we have 123 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 1: to at a minimum extend the Trump tax cuts the job. 124 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 1: So that to me is a minimum. If we can 125 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 1: put something additional, they're great. If we can bring back 126 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: we have, bringing back the R and D credits, bringing 127 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: back to acceler depreciation, those have more impacts than anything 128 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,280 Speaker 1: else we're actually talking about here. 129 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 5: No, Gary won't be Look, I think there's a large 130 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 5: empirical literature on this question, and taxes matter, but it's 131 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 5: not even close to the most important factor. A lot 132 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 5: of things go into the future cash flows and expectations 133 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 5: of future cash flows, part of which is taxes, but 134 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 5: there are lots of other pieces that are arguably more important. 135 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 5: And on that point, I do think we need to 136 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 5: also highlight that a lot of the benefits that we 137 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 5: are we have experienced historically in the United States comes 138 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 5: from being the world leader in technology in particular, that 139 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 5: is where a disproportionate share of the productivity growth has occurred. 140 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 5: That is where, to the extent there are any differences 141 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 5: with Europe. 142 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 3: That is where the differences have shown up most. 143 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 5: Prominently, and we need to be cognizant of that because 144 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 5: there is some risk that we will disrupt the apple cart. 145 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 5: I completely understand and empathize with the perspective that our 146 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 5: leading universities went far off Kilture and how they handled 147 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 5: the aftermath of October seventh in particular, But I think 148 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 5: slashing the NIH budget, slashing funding to the leading universities 149 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 5: of the United States, risks exactly what we're already seeing, 150 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:37,840 Speaker 5: which is Europeans and others are saying, come here, we 151 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 5: will invest in science. 152 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 3: We don't want that, So. 153 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 5: That is just as important, if not more important, than 154 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:45,319 Speaker 5: tax policy. 155 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 3: But obviously everything matters. 156 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 2: Since we've got onto AI and technology. What outcomes were 157 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 2: you hoping for from the Chips Act and was it 158 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 2: successful and revitalizing US microchip manufacturing at Sir Georgia's posito, 159 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 2: and also wondering what the next act like that would be. 160 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,479 Speaker 2: I think, I mean you a speaker, when the Bipartisan 161 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:07,320 Speaker 2: Chips Act was passed, there's been sort of different signals 162 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 2: around it. But as far as you're concern, was it 163 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 2: successful in doing what it was supposed to do? 164 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 3: Not completely? 165 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 4: No, I mean the company government invested in the most 166 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,319 Speaker 4: I don't know is going to make it all the way. 167 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 3: AI is going to do. 168 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 4: One thing for America is going to get our energy 169 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 4: policy right, because we'll never capture AI without getting energy 170 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 4: policy right. You'll do more than any climate change has 171 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 4: ever done to our energy policy. Getting chips made in 172 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 4: America is going to be an agreement with government and Taiwan. 173 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 4: Taiwan is never going to give the full fobs here 174 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 4: unless they get an agreement that they're going to get 175 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 4: some type of support and that's actually happening now. 176 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 3: So I believe there is enough capital out there. 177 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 4: It's more a government view that in the Senate if 178 00:09:56,679 --> 00:09:59,080 Speaker 4: they just throw money at Chips. I think there's a 179 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 4: lot of capital in the market to get money for Chips. 180 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 3: I don't think government needed to make that investment. 181 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 4: This isn't normal. I tell my friends in Congress, China 182 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 4: has a congress too. No one knows who they are. 183 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:15,199 Speaker 4: All the power has usurped to the White House. Trump 184 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 4: has one term. You can tell them, oh, if you 185 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 4: went really smooth. None of that's going to matter to him. 186 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 4: He's got one term to get something done. He has 187 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 4: his ten thousand hours that he knows how to do 188 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 4: the job. He picked the cabinet that he wants that 189 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:32,079 Speaker 4: will follow what he wants to do. I believe investment 190 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 4: is important, but under Republicans we increased in IH. But 191 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 4: I don't think any of these colleges have been audited. 192 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 4: Did you really think taxpayer money should give Harvard nine 193 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 4: billion dollars? What are they doing with it? I actually 194 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 4: believe coming after him will make every single college to 195 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 4: start auditing. 196 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 3: What are we doing with this money? 197 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 4: And it will drive more towards research and development than prior. 198 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 4: I firmly believe in the tax and it will get done, 199 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 4: but it won't get done perfectly on the timeline that 200 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 4: Congress does right now, but it's too much pain that 201 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 4: they not do it. But Trump will cut regulation he 202 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 4: did last time, even faster than Reagan. That combination will 203 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 4: help energy more and AI will drive energy to do 204 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:25,959 Speaker 4: it more than anything of it. 205 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 3: Yeah. 206 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 5: Look, I think there is a very positive agenda here 207 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 5: that has to do with expanding the supply, not only 208 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 5: of energy, where honestly, the myth of the immaculate transition 209 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:40,679 Speaker 5: has dominated for too long, and I'm glad, I am 210 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 5: glad we are past that in housing, which admittedly is 211 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 5: mostly local, but is a huge impediment to the upward 212 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 5: mobility of many families. By the way, people have not realized, 213 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 5: but the mobility rates in the United States have been 214 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 5: declining over the past two to three decades. 215 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:00,319 Speaker 3: And you know part of that is is. 216 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 5: The rock and effects and the difficulty of finding housing 217 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 5: and wherever you want to move to. 218 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:09,680 Speaker 3: This is a problem that needs to be addressed. 219 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 5: And you can go down the list of expanding supply 220 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 5: as a I mean EZRA client and Derek Thompson just 221 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 5: wrote a book called Abundance, which is fundamentally about let's 222 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 5: stop subsidizing demand and let's really focus on expanding supply. 223 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 5: That is an agenda that you know, I'm one hundred 224 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 5: percent behind. 225 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 2: I just wanted to want to shift a little bit 226 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 2: of that follows on from that, if you have a 227 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 2: supply side approach to the economy. One of the things 228 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 2: that investors and others were very were excited about in 229 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:45,079 Speaker 2: looking at this incoming administration was around deregulation and that 230 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:48,359 Speaker 2: whole agenda. But we also saw in the previous administration 231 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 2: quite an aggressive approach to corporate power, which actually was 232 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 2: also associated with an analysis of what was reducing labor moability, 233 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:59,079 Speaker 2: non compete clauses. You know, the corporate concentration was itself 234 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 2: imped being economic competitiveness. So I just wonder how would 235 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 2: you judge where the administration is on that and whether 236 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,080 Speaker 2: it's right to kind of be more relaxed about corporate 237 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 2: concentration if that's if that's the case. 238 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:19,080 Speaker 4: The frustration I've had in past administrations, if one administration 239 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:21,199 Speaker 4: did something, the other one has to be opposed to it, 240 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 4: which I didn't think good. 241 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 3: Was when it comes to China. 242 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 4: Maybe China has united everybody, and this isn't about preparing 243 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 4: for war. We've become too dependent. This is about making 244 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,199 Speaker 4: sure we don't go to war and pure dependency. And 245 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 4: it's the most bipartisan committee. And when the President of 246 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 4: Taiwan came to see me, I held the meeting at 247 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 4: the Reagan Library simply for the symbolism of defeating communists 248 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 4: without going to war. And when we sat and had 249 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 4: a press conference together with the Berlin Wall behind us, 250 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 4: Andrew Mitchell gave the first question and she said, I cried, 251 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 4: and I was with Reagan. We said, tear down this wall. 252 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 4: And I feel just emotional as today that you are 253 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 4: so united without Paul. 254 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 3: And I think it's been one of the most positive things. 255 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 3: And dependency. 256 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 4: Just like they control ninety percent of the critical minerals, 257 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 4: but ninety five percent of the processing, and that really 258 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 4: comes down to Congress. Are they going to allow us 259 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 4: if we have our own resources to be able to 260 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 4: do that? And I think this is a place, this 261 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 4: is where the TikTok band came from. This is going 262 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 4: to be a very positive situation. 263 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 2: Well happn't to that, but I did actually distract you 264 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 2: from Kary Kayan? Do you want or do you want 265 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 2: to take on the Batsy trust question. 266 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 1: Look, I'm always troubled by this topic to some of 267 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 1: the great because, look, we clearly want our companies to 268 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 1: play within the rules. We don't want anyone to have 269 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 1: an unfair advantage. So that's that's a given. On the 270 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 1: flip side, you know, we sit here and we talk 271 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: about we have to compete against China, which we do, 272 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 1: and we have to win the battle. China's trying to 273 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 1: build the largest companies in the. 274 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 3: World to take over the world. 275 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 1: We're trying to break up the larger companies they're successful 276 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: in the United States. I think we got to decide 277 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 1: which side this equation we want to come out on. 278 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 1: I think we want to be able to compete globally. 279 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 1: And if some of our companies are really successful, it 280 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 1: happen to be very large, it's okay. It's probably good 281 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 1: for us in this country, and they probably bring home 282 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 1: a lot of tax revu and they probably employ a 283 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 1: lot of people. As long as they're not prohibiting other 284 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,240 Speaker 1: people from competing in the space. I don't think we 285 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 1: as Americans to that problems with it. We should actually 286 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 1: be very prideful in the fact that we can build 287 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 1: these companies from nothing. And the companies we're talking about, 288 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 1: and I know we're smiling, a lot of these companies 289 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 1: didn't exist thirty years ago, forty years fifty years ago, 290 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 1: none existed. So you think about the creativity and this 291 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 1: is why I started out being so bullish on this economy. 292 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 1: You think of the creativity and the entrepreneurial spirit that 293 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 1: exists in this country. We've built some of the largest 294 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 1: companies in the last twenty years. Let's allow them to 295 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 1: continue to thrive as long as they're playing within the laws. 296 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 1: That's why we have loss in this country. 297 00:15:56,760 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 5: So the biggest divergence that the biggest bad crowd had 298 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 5: was because it's easy to kind of just say it's 299 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 5: across the board, it's really quite specifically with regard to 300 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 5: vertical integration. So that is a firm that is buying 301 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 5: something that's a supplier or a distributor as opposed to 302 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 5: merging horizontally. And there I think, honestly, there was a 303 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 5: lot of rhetoric, often without a lot of evidence, and 304 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 5: you're going to find that's where the differences will be. 305 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 5: The most significant is a little bit of backing off 306 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 5: from the all vertical integration is bad. 307 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 3: And let me just. 308 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 5: Highlight one area where this tension is paramount. 309 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 3: I saw doctor Oz yesterday. He's here. 310 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 5: I believe that CMS under doctor Oz will push very 311 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 5: hard on value based care and healthcare, which is fantastic. 312 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 3: We should pay for value and not for quantity. 313 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 5: But as you do that, you're creating incentives for insurance 314 00:16:56,240 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 5: companies and providers to act as one because that's effectively 315 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 5: what most of the incentive undervalue based care does. 316 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:04,719 Speaker 3: And we have evidence. 317 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 5: We're here in California, Kiser Pernaminity is a good example 318 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 5: of fully vertically integrated healthcare players that perform better than others. 319 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 5: So if you go after vertical integration, but you also 320 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:20,399 Speaker 5: want value based healthcare, which, by the way, the administration, 321 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 5: the prior administration was saying simultaneously you have massive cognitive dissonance. 322 00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 5: One arm of the government saying don't do this, in 323 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 5: the other arm saying do it. I think that will 324 00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 5: be better going forward. 325 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 2: I'm going to change the subject, but I did mention 326 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:36,640 Speaker 2: the start. I mean, one of the things that economists 327 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 2: had been quote unquote concerned about given how much it 328 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 2: had been part of the growth model in the last 329 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 2: few years. Was the much tougher stance towards immigration of 330 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 2: this administration. Now, obviously the focus has been illegal administration 331 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:55,119 Speaker 2: immigration and companies don't tend to kind of stand up 332 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,400 Speaker 2: for the right to have loads of illegal immigrants working 333 00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 2: for them, and really want to get past that and 334 00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:03,120 Speaker 2: just to a sort of core of what has been 335 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 2: a source of economic strength for the US over the 336 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 2: last few years, which is to be a very opening. 337 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 1: Environment for legal immigrations. 338 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 2: So foreign citizens, no, But if we have people who 339 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,639 Speaker 2: are now being we have foreign if foreign students who 340 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 2: are studying here, maybe contributing potentially to entrepreneurship and inventions 341 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 2: in the US and down the road, are being intimidated. 342 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 2: If people are worried about I mean, we will know 343 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 2: people here who have been told actually, if you don't 344 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:32,920 Speaker 2: need to come to the US, don't come, or do 345 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 2: just take a burner phone. I mean, all of this 346 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 2: is I'm sure exaggerated, but just about the sort of 347 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,840 Speaker 2: atmosphere that it creates for a country that's trying to 348 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,879 Speaker 2: attract foreign talent. I mean, Peter, do do you worry 349 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,159 Speaker 2: about it? It's not about these specific cases. 350 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 5: There is I agree that we need to have secure borders, 351 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,159 Speaker 5: and I agree that you know no one can or 352 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,479 Speaker 5: should be in favor of a legal immigration. So let 353 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 5: me just say that, However, even if the burner phone 354 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 5: finalmon is anecdotal, anecdotes can become the telephone game and 355 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 5: affect our ability to attract top talent. The number of 356 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 5: foreign CEOs with whom I've spoken who say that they 357 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 5: are going to be bringing a burner fund to the 358 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 5: US is much higher than it should be. 359 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:20,160 Speaker 3: So I very much hope. 360 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 5: That whatever's causing that changes because that is not good 361 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 5: for our economy. 362 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 2: Misspeaking, do you think do you just worry about the again, 363 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 2: the tone of what's happened over the last few months, 364 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 2: and maybe the overreach by some people in individual bits 365 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 2: of homeland security, which then contributes to these stories. 366 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 4: Look, I think the greatest strength of America is not 367 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 4: our aircraft carri is the idea of America. Okay, But 368 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 4: President Trump got elected on two main factors, the border 369 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 4: and the economy, and I think eighty percent of America 370 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,199 Speaker 4: believes the border was out of control. So just like 371 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:01,840 Speaker 4: everything else, you have to actually make this statement to 372 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 4: stop the illegal from coming. We're the most generous nation 373 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,120 Speaker 4: in the world. More than a million people go. Now 374 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:09,919 Speaker 4: you're going to get a gold cart, so you're going 375 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,679 Speaker 4: to get a whole other set. I think this is 376 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:17,120 Speaker 4: a small part. I think it'll make people rethink. I'm 377 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 4: more concerned the relationship with Canada and Mexico because I 378 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 4: believe that's a great deal of strength, and I think 379 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 4: that has to be we have an agreement with them. 380 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 3: We need to work through it. 381 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 4: Because if you can't work with your neighbors that you 382 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,919 Speaker 4: have in agreement with, it's hard to make agreements with 383 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 4: other people. 384 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 2: Okay, and I want to go back to we started 385 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 2: right at the beginning. You mentioned about debt, and you 386 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:42,400 Speaker 2: also about the importance of making the tax cuts permanent. 387 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,160 Speaker 2: You know, that is one of the things that if 388 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 2: you're again just doing a sort of classic economic health 389 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:51,199 Speaker 2: check of the US, you'd say, that's the kind of 390 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 2: scariest bit of the scariest chart is what happens to 391 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:59,199 Speaker 2: debt under any reasonable assumptions. So do you see a 392 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 2: path given the relatively modest gains of DOGE, given the 393 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 2: kind of cuts that are on the table in Congress, 394 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 2: do you see a path to meaningfully flattening the US trajectory. 395 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 1: There's always a path. Do we want to take the path? 396 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 1: We're going to have no choice. I think we're going 397 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 1: to have to get to the point where we take 398 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,879 Speaker 1: the path. So if you look at what DOE is 399 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 1: trying to do in like waste frauden abuse, as the 400 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 1: Governor said, as the Speaker said, there's waste broaden abuse everywhere, 401 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 1: it's hard to go in and find those pieces. I 402 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 1: actually think we'd be better off to take a step 403 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 1: back and figure out what can we actually eliminate. It's 404 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 1: a lot more cost effective to start eliminating things. So 405 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 1: I'll go back to my former former former life. You know, 406 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: when you look at the banking sector in the United States, 407 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 1: I think we have eight to eleven regulators in the 408 00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 1: banking sector in the United States. If you look at 409 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: the UK, you look at Hong Kong, you look at Japan, 410 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:05,679 Speaker 1: you look at Singapore, you'd say, all they have pretty 411 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,440 Speaker 1: good markets, pretty good banking systems. They have a maximum 412 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,120 Speaker 1: of three regulators in each of those countries. They don't 413 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 1: have an SEC, they don't have a CFTC, they don't 414 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,880 Speaker 1: have an OCC. I could keep naming names of things 415 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,919 Speaker 1: they don't have. They have a potential regulator and a 416 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 1: market in a central bank, and they have a regulator 417 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 1: that protects the public. We could do that really efficiently 418 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,680 Speaker 1: in this country, and we could cut out real, real 419 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:33,680 Speaker 1: spending long term. Now, look, it will take my friend 420 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 1: over here and his colleagues in the Capitol to get 421 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 1: rid of a bunch. 422 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 3: Of these agencies. 423 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 1: But these agencies in many respects I think have probably 424 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,800 Speaker 1: outlived their needs, outlived their services. So if we're gonna 425 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 1: get serious about taking money out and keeping it out, 426 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 1: because the dose money, I hate to say it, in 427 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 1: the next administration could come back in the way to 428 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 1: keep it out. Take it out is the remove part 429 00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 1: of the organization that actually doesn't need to be there today. 430 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 2: I guess you only find out if you needed it 431 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 2: once you get rid of it. 432 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:07,640 Speaker 5: But Pisa, Look if I told all of you that 433 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,199 Speaker 5: there was a country running seven percent of GDP deficits, 434 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 5: as far as I can see, that the debt to 435 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 5: GDP of that country was one hundred percent, that the 436 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:25,200 Speaker 5: political system was deeply polarized, that the country was arguably 437 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 5: alienating a third of its investor class, and that that 438 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 5: country was also toying with the idea of whether the 439 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,760 Speaker 5: central bank should remain fully independent or not. That would 440 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:42,680 Speaker 5: not be a combination of factors that would be confidence inspiring. 441 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 3: So I agree with Gary this is in my opinion. 442 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 5: Now there was a decade and now I will say 443 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,120 Speaker 5: even I, as a former CBO director and a former 444 00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:54,120 Speaker 5: budget director, sort of had just tuned out all the 445 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,919 Speaker 5: chicken little kind of the sky is falling fiscal stuff 446 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 5: because all of the dire predictions were not happening, and 447 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 5: it kind of got a little tiresome to keep hearing them. 448 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:05,360 Speaker 3: But if you. 449 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 5: Compare where we are now to where we were a 450 00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 5: decade ago, it's a lot different. The deficits twice as 451 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:15,920 Speaker 5: high interest rates are dramatically higher. I am particularly pleased 452 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 5: that Secretary of Bison has cleaned up the question of 453 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,879 Speaker 5: whether the administration is doubting whether it being the reserve 454 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 5: currency is a benefit or not. I think there were 455 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 5: statements from other administration officials which were not helpful. That 456 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 5: is a very dangerous thing to be doing, given the 457 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 5: combination of facts that I had. So this is I 458 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:38,240 Speaker 5: think it's time to worry again about this trajectory and 459 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 5: I do hope that we get serious about what we're 460 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 5: going to do, because you don't want to be in 461 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 5: a situation where it gets away from you. And I 462 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:47,720 Speaker 5: think the risk that it gets away from us are 463 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,160 Speaker 5: higher now than it was over the past decade. 464 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:56,320 Speaker 2: Mister speakers, as Gary said, it's all down to your colleagues, Well. 465 00:24:56,080 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 4: Then I'd be really worried. Structure dictates behavior. There is 466 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 4: not one person who gets elected that they're going to 467 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 4: go in and cut It doesn't show up on any poll. Now. 468 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,159 Speaker 4: We had this exact same problem in nineteen ninety with 469 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 4: the collapse of the Soviet Union, and there's not one 470 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 4: member of Congress who's going to raise their hand that 471 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 4: we've spent the last forty years developing a military to 472 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:23,760 Speaker 4: fight the Soviet Union. Who's going to raise their hand 473 00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 4: and said close my base. So they know the structure 474 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 4: wouldn't work. So what did they do. They created bract 475 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 4: base re Alignment Enclosure, so every leader got to appoint 476 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,440 Speaker 4: to it. If they came up with the plan, this 477 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,119 Speaker 4: is all they were promised. They'd get a vote on 478 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,359 Speaker 4: the floor in the House and no amendments. 479 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:41,440 Speaker 3: You know what happened. 480 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 4: It would pass and it would be bipartisan, because then 481 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:49,119 Speaker 4: you're boxed in. I actually made this offer to Biden 482 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 4: during the debt ceiling. I said, let's do it and 483 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 4: let's vote after the election. You got the tax bill, 484 00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,000 Speaker 4: and you've got some provision in some Obamacare coming due. 485 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 4: So technically, in the tax bill, if you took some revenue, 486 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,440 Speaker 4: you're not raising taxes because they're all going up automatically. 487 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:10,919 Speaker 4: You're actually decreasing them. In Obamacare, some of them are 488 00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 4: going to go. Provisions were leaving, So if you reform 489 00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 4: that from a Democrat, you weren't destroying Obamacare. And if 490 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 4: you did it after the election, you got a little 491 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 4: aim duck. The greatest strength any politician has is the 492 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 4: first day they're elected, and it goes down each day 493 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,959 Speaker 4: to the next election, then it goes back up. So 494 00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,680 Speaker 4: and if you did it together, no one will lose 495 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 4: their job over it. Now you can eliminate things in 496 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 4: government that's not going to do anything for you. The 497 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 4: drivers today are the government programs, and if you do 498 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:48,199 Speaker 4: nothing eight years and nine years, they'll automatically be double 499 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:52,880 Speaker 4: digit cuts to them and few options. It's the greatest 500 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 4: threat we have. 501 00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 2: Okay, but help me out here because when you look 502 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:01,200 Speaker 2: at the only serious cut in a non discretionary that's 503 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,800 Speaker 2: on the table that is actually gaining some momentum in 504 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,400 Speaker 2: Congress never been not medicaid. But the President has said 505 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 2: multiple times he doesn't want to see cuts the many 506 00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,160 Speaker 2: without that number. Without that cut, it's very hard to see, say, 507 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,399 Speaker 2: how you start to pay for the tax cuts. So 508 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 2: I'm just wondering, how do you've given your history, your experience, 509 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:19,960 Speaker 2: how do you think that's going to be resolved? 510 00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,680 Speaker 4: Okay, my experience in the dead saying I got two 511 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 4: trillion dollars and I lost my job over it. Even 512 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 4: in this reconciliation, they're not coming anywhere near that. And 513 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,879 Speaker 4: it's a Republican White House or Republican Senate, Republican House. 514 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 4: So that's why I say I don't put my trust 515 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,680 Speaker 4: in them. Getting it's kinna becomes such a big problem 516 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 4: that no longer anybody can ignore it. But you have 517 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,399 Speaker 4: to change the structure otherwise the members will just the 518 00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,240 Speaker 4: minority will fight who's ever in the majority. Take it 519 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 4: out of the argument, and bring it back in one vote, 520 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 4: and that's the way you have to get it done. 521 00:27:53,240 --> 00:28:10,119 Speaker 2: Thank you very much, thank you, Thanks for listening to 522 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:13,280 Speaker 2: Trumpnomics from Bloomberg. It was hosted by Me, Stephanie Flanders 523 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 2: and I was joined by Gary Cohne, Peter Orsac, and 524 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,159 Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy. Trumponomics is produced by Samasadi and Moses and 525 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 2: Them with help from Chris Martlou and Amy Keen. Sound 526 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,040 Speaker 2: design is by Blake Maples and Brendan Francis Newnham is 527 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 2: our executive producer. Please help other people find the show. 528 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 2: Just rate it very highly and review it wherever you 529 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:34,120 Speaker 2: listen to your podcast