Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought
Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We are
Speaker 1: heading into week eight. It is time to talk about
Speaker 1: our best bets, and here to do that with me
Speaker 1: is Ryan Noonan, the director of Betting over at four
Speaker 1: for four Football and co host of the Move the
Speaker 1: Line podcast. Find them on Twitter at RYE noon In. Ryan,
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining me today. How you doing.
Speaker 2: I'm well, Dan, Thanks for having me body. I appreciate it.
Speaker 3: I always enjoy talking shop with you me too.
Speaker 1: You're doing great work by the way over there, and
Speaker 1: I don't know if I congratulated you by the time
Speaker 1: you took over, you know, head of the director of
Speaker 1: betting over there, but you do great work. Your podcast
Speaker 1: is great and look, I you know I should trail
Speaker 1: you more. You've been quite quite hot this entire NFL season.
Speaker 1: So are you ready to keep it going?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: You know, just trying to find the edges we can.
Speaker 3: This is a hard game, you know, this speculator, you know,
Speaker 3: against the spreads especially, so try to find any of
Speaker 3: the edges we can, so you know, we try to
Speaker 3: spend a lot of time in the player prop streets
Speaker 3: or little edges and team totals. I love team totals.
Speaker 3: We got one for you today. Those have been unsustainably
Speaker 3: hot for me. But hopefully I do not go off
Speaker 3: the rails with you today, Dan. I hope we can
Speaker 3: continue to give winners to your audience.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I really hope you don't screw it up by
Speaker 1: the time on this podcast. But whatever, man, it's fine
Speaker 1: if you do.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: Before we get into it, let's remind you about the
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Speaker 1: three times the entry YouTube dot com slash betting pros Quickly,
Speaker 1: let us recap last week. Our guest Ian McMillan, hit
Speaker 1: on two of his three bets. He hit on the
Speaker 1: Bengals on the money line at plus two thirty over
Speaker 1: the Ravens, great pick there, and the Bucks laying twelve
Speaker 1: and a half to the Bears. He missed on the
Speaker 1: Jets Patriots under forty two and a half, a game
Speaker 1: I admittedly also liked very much. I had my first
Speaker 1: losing week since Week one. I went one and two.
Speaker 1: I missed on the Panthers lank three to the Giants,
Speaker 1: had the Eagles as well getting through from the Raiders,
Speaker 1: which was just wrong. I did hit on the Giants
Speaker 1: and the Panthers under forty three, So that puts me
Speaker 1: at thirteen to eight on the season. Let's go. I'm
Speaker 1: very excited to not have to deal with so many
Speaker 1: teams on by Remember we'll be using betting pros dot
Speaker 1: Com Consensus, all the good stuff. You can check us
Speaker 1: out on the app. Do whatever you want there. Check
Speaker 1: out the leader board. Ryan, You are our guest. Our
Speaker 1: guest gets to make the first selection. Go ahead, what's
Speaker 1: your number one pick?
Speaker 3: All?
Speaker 2: Is pressure?
Speaker 1: Man?
Speaker 3: Like?
Speaker 2: You have those your first losing weeks since week one?
Speaker 1: Correct? Look it's three bats every time, so I'm going
Speaker 1: three and hour two in one. It's fine. Look you're
Speaker 1: the guy. I see the tweets coming out about how
Speaker 1: you never get a single pick wrong. So if you
Speaker 1: don't go three and oh here, I don't know, never
Speaker 1: allowed back Ever, that's.
Speaker 2: Not coming from my accounts. I don't know where that's
Speaker 2: coming from.
Speaker 3: Those are false falsehoods for sure. You know what, I'll
Speaker 3: go with the team total to start, Dan, because you
Speaker 3: know this is kind of this that is where maybe
Speaker 3: the talk of me being maybe better than than advertised
Speaker 3: is coming so far. So you know, can I start
Speaker 3: a little bit with philosophy? Is I think team totals
Speaker 3: are I think there's an edge there. I think that
Speaker 3: there's an inefficient market in team totals. They are not
Speaker 3: typically set specifically by the books, and what I mean
Speaker 3: by that is that it's simply derived from the spread
Speaker 3: in the game total. And then what happens is is
Speaker 3: some of these books, the majority of the main books
Speaker 3: that we have access to, move them as the line
Speaker 3: or the total moves, and what happens is we get
Speaker 3: these little buying windows where we can work around key
Speaker 3: numbers that becomes really advantageous. We know, like three and
Speaker 3: seven key numbers and spreads totals, Like there's the distribution
Speaker 3: of totals and points scored is changing as this game
Speaker 3: continues to change, where you know, we have these key
Speaker 3: numbers up in the upper fifties which we've never had before,
Speaker 3: but we have some you know, common key numbers in
Speaker 3: the twenties that sometimes we'll get some buying opportunities. There's
Speaker 3: one this week, I like the Rams over thirty and
Speaker 3: a half points against the Texans. Again, when you look
Speaker 3: at how the distribution of scores happened, thirty one ends
Speaker 3: up being a pretty key number in team totals. And
Speaker 3: this Texans team is terrible. And when we've seen the Rams,
Speaker 3: I think they were kind of caught off guard last week.
Speaker 3: You know, we had the Dan Campbell kitchen sink game.
Speaker 3: Would you love to see when you know that you're
Speaker 3: up against the up against it, you're the massive underdog here.
Speaker 3: Let's try to give you everything we can to give
Speaker 3: ourselves the best chance. And they hung around a little bit.
Speaker 3: The Texans don't have that. They don't really have anything
Speaker 3: defensively that makes you think that they can slow down
Speaker 3: anything that the Rams are doing. The Rams can beyond
Speaker 3: cruise control and still hang crooked numbers. We know that
Speaker 3: they like to throw late they you know, I think
Speaker 3: we saw a Cooper Cup touchdown a couple of weeks
Speaker 3: ago when they were, you know, up by thirty against
Speaker 3: the Giants, Like they are pedals to the metal all
Speaker 3: the way through here. They can stumble and still get
Speaker 3: to thirty one very comfortable, comfortably against this Texans team.
Speaker 3: So give me Rams over thirty and a half. And
Speaker 3: it's a market. If you're a listener and you're really
Speaker 3: kind of sides and totals, look into team totals a
Speaker 3: little bit more. You know, watch a couple of games,
Speaker 3: get an understanding of where you think that line should be,
Speaker 3: and then wait for some line movement you can you
Speaker 3: can jump on some key numbers.
Speaker 1: That's interesting because I'll be honest, I don't bet a
Speaker 1: lot of just team totals. I occasionally do, but for
Speaker 1: the most part. But to you, oh, it sounds like
Speaker 1: what you're saying is like that is the single most
Speaker 1: inefficient part of the betting market right now for NFL games, right, yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean outside of player props. Right, So, player props
Speaker 3: we have, you know, they are speculative. We don't even know,
Speaker 3: like you can get a bad line, and we don't
Speaker 3: necessarily know that.
Speaker 2: You got a bad line.
Speaker 3: You might have got the worst line, but it doesn't
Speaker 3: mean that it's an efficient line. The market's so inefficient
Speaker 3: to begin with. But yeah, as far as like your
Speaker 3: traditional market stand, I definitely think that it is a
Speaker 3: buying opportunity because they don't necessarily think of it and
Speaker 3: don't move it by itself. It's not a separate market.
Speaker 3: It kind of moves with the two main markets.
Speaker 1: All right. I like it rams team total over thirty
Speaker 1: and a half. Okay, I'll try the on it. I
Speaker 1: love it all right. So I've got a couple over unders.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna leave them. They're both unders, which makes me
Speaker 1: want to vomit right now because I just it's horrible
Speaker 1: to be rooting for people not to score. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with the spread bet, and my guess is
Speaker 1: going to be a little surprising because I don't this
Speaker 1: doesn't strike me as a line or a game necessarily
Speaker 1: that anybody wants to target. But I'm going to take
Speaker 1: the Steelers getting three and a half against the So
Speaker 1: when you give me Mike Tomlin generally speaking as an underdog,
Speaker 1: I am automatically intrigued, right like I'm automatically okay, all right,
Speaker 1: you're gonna get the guys up for this. When you
Speaker 1: give me him as a road underdog, then I'm really
Speaker 1: interested in it because I think that's sort of the
Speaker 1: quote unquote Mike Toblin spot. Now, the obvious stuff here
Speaker 1: is that the Browns have a ton of question marks
Speaker 1: going on right now. We don't know who's going to
Speaker 1: play quarterback in my Bigger Mayfield might be case Keenum.
Speaker 1: We don't know if Odell Beckham Junior is going to
Speaker 1: be playing in this game. We don't necessarily even know
Speaker 1: that Jarvis Landry is going to play in this game,
Speaker 1: although it is trending in that direction. And I know
Speaker 1: we got excited because you know, the spread was dropping
Speaker 1: with all the injuries, and they come out and they
Speaker 1: beat the Broncos. But that's a bad Broncos team who's
Speaker 1: missing Von Miller for most of the game and whose
Speaker 1: linebacker group is terrible that you beat by three points.
Speaker 1: So this, to me strikes me as just a bad
Speaker 1: matchup for the Pittsburgh offense, no matter what. For the
Speaker 1: I'm sorry for the Browns offense, no matter what. Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: is ninth in defensive DVOA. They're good against both the
Speaker 1: run and the pass, and they're one of the tops
Speaker 1: in the league at pressure rate and especially getting pressure
Speaker 1: despite not blitzing a ton. And I really think that
Speaker 1: that is the key here when you want to slow
Speaker 1: down either Baker Mayfield is not great under pressure or
Speaker 1: case Schemham, who historically has not been very good under pressure.
Speaker 1: So I think defensively here, I really think that they're
Speaker 1: going to be able to stack the box against Nick Chubb,
Speaker 1: who should return here, and still be able to get
Speaker 1: pressure on Baker Mayfield, So I don't expect much to
Speaker 1: go right for Cleveland offensively on the other side the ball,
Speaker 1: I mean, the Steelers are coming off the buy, their
Speaker 1: offensive lines getting a little better. Now they're gelling, the
Speaker 1: scheme changed a little bit, Naji Harris coming into his own.
Speaker 1: I know Cleveland's good against the run, but again Najie
Speaker 1: Harris has been heavily involved. Ben Roethlisberger looks a little better,
Speaker 1: looks a little healthier. Chase Claypole was getting healthier as well.
Speaker 1: Browns or midle of the pack defensively in Dvoa. But
Speaker 1: they're twenty thirty against the pass. So I do think
Speaker 1: that the Steelers are going to be able to go here.
Speaker 1: I think the Steelers actually win this game out right.
Speaker 1: But if you're giving me the hook in particular over
Speaker 1: three and a half, that's what I'm going to take.
Speaker 1: So I told you before we started recording, Ryan that
Speaker 1: you should give your honest assess of any pick I make,
Speaker 1: and if you want to fade it, you can fade.
Speaker 1: If you want to follow it, follow it. What's your
Speaker 1: assessment of this one?
Speaker 3: I think the last piece of advice was really sharp.
Speaker 3: If take the money line, so if you really like
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh here, especially when we're you know, looking at these
Speaker 3: these dogs under six, under seven. We've seen an outrageous
Speaker 3: clip this year where those teams are actually just winning
Speaker 3: out right. So like you're gonna get a like plus
Speaker 3: one sixty here or something like that, Like just take that,
Speaker 3: and you know, it's very rare that you're gonna have
Speaker 3: this fall within that three window and not have Pittsburgh
Speaker 3: win outright as well. This is a toss up to me,
Speaker 3: Like I this has happened two years in a row
Speaker 3: now where Pittsburgh is on like the wrong side of
Speaker 3: the rest advantage of a bye. They're coming off a bye,
Speaker 3: but like the Browns have the mini by because.
Speaker 2: Of the Saturday night game.
Speaker 1: Yes, it is very.
Speaker 3: Telling that the line is still on the board despite
Speaker 3: not knowing who's on the quarterback. That kind of speaks
Speaker 3: to like, it's not necessarily a massive downgrade from from
Speaker 3: Baker to case Keenum. Yeah, I mean, I think he
Speaker 3: made some good points. It's gonna be tough slutting. I
Speaker 3: think for now, I think you know, this is again
Speaker 3: a low total, So I would lean under, would probably
Speaker 3: be my most convicted lean in this scheme. But even
Speaker 3: that I hold very very loosely.
Speaker 1: So you've selling many unders, man, too many unders, and
Speaker 1: I can't go after it again. Yeah, so it might
Speaker 1: be something where I mean, maybe it's an in game
Speaker 1: a same game parla there where you tease their same
Speaker 1: game teaser where you tease up the Steelers to tease
Speaker 1: up the total and go under. Yeah, you're dead on
Speaker 1: it's plus one sixty on the money line. I do
Speaker 1: think that it's it's a point. I don't make that enough,
Speaker 1: by the way, So I'm glad that you're kind of
Speaker 1: harping on it, which is if you are taking, you know,
Speaker 1: a dog here within like six points whatever it is,
Speaker 1: but a dog that's not outrageous, always sprinkle on the
Speaker 1: money line regardless of it, because you're right, they have
Speaker 1: been hitting it at a clip. But also it's it's
Speaker 1: close enough there where there's almost certainly value. All right,
Speaker 1: that's my number one. Go ahead with your number two.
Speaker 1: Pick what do you got?
Speaker 2: I like it.
Speaker 3: This is a square I get a couple of square
Speaker 3: sides for the listeners today. I feel like they're gonna
Speaker 3: be public lines, but I feel like there's a reason
Speaker 3: that they're to be public lines, and maybe they get steamed.
Speaker 3: Now you can get a little bit of the best
Speaker 3: of the number, they might get a little bit more
Speaker 3: expensive as the weekend approaches. Give me Tampa Bay minus five.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if what the consensus lying there is
Speaker 3: at betting pros currently.
Speaker 2: Five and a half.
Speaker 1: Between five, five and a half, it bounce it back.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so anywhere under six.
Speaker 3: We're also dealing with some new key, you know, key
Speaker 3: numbers in this new NFL two where six is becoming
Speaker 3: as common as seven.
Speaker 2: So that's interesting.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel like there's a little bit of dan
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if you're a curb your enthusiasm fan,
Speaker 3: there's a little bit of like spite store stuff going
Speaker 3: on here with Tampa Bay. You know Larry built, you know,
Speaker 3: and ran a coffee shop out of spite with Mocha Joe.
Speaker 3: I think that there's a little bit of that vibe
Speaker 3: going on with Tampa Bay this year. It happened last
Speaker 3: week too, So it was the Thursday night game against Philly,
Speaker 3: and you know.
Speaker 2: Everyone's still leaving. The game's barely over right.
Speaker 3: That's the everyone's still sweating, and Levante David sits down
Speaker 3: at the desk with the NFL Network guys, and it
Speaker 3: is talking about how stoked the Boys are to get
Speaker 3: to Chicago because they were in barrass last year and
Speaker 3: it was like Tom Brady went down as a game
Speaker 3: and they wanted to make a statement against the Bears.
Speaker 3: Last week. I loved them last week. I got a
Speaker 3: minus ten. You could not have said that number too
Speaker 3: high for me. And I think that this is another
Speaker 3: team where like these two teams played three times last year,
Speaker 3: they meant the playoffs as well as obviously the two
Speaker 3: divisional matchups, and the Saints stuck it to him once.
Speaker 3: They beat him twice, obviously the season opener, but like
Speaker 3: that game in Tampa, like they rolled them, And I
Speaker 3: think that this is something that like you know, Brady
Speaker 3: looks for these little edges and can galvanize the locker room.
Speaker 3: And I think that they want to kind of remind
Speaker 3: the Saints that we don't want you in the playoffs.
Speaker 3: This is our division, and they go out here and
Speaker 3: make a statement and take care of business. This becomes
Speaker 3: really their division here, you know, cruising the rest of
Speaker 3: the way, even though we're only in week nine or
Speaker 3: week eight at this point. So like I think Tampa
Speaker 3: makes a statement anything under six. I love laying the
Speaker 3: points here. I don't know what to make of the Saints,
Speaker 3: so I don't think they're very good. I think the
Speaker 3: defense is good, but like, offensively, they're twenty ninth in
Speaker 3: yards per drive. I think they are thirtieth in points
Speaker 3: per drive. No, but they're thirtieth in yards per drive.
Speaker 3: But they're first in points per red zone appearance and
Speaker 3: they're second in touchdowns per red zone appearance. That is
Speaker 3: massively unsustainable. Like their offense is not good. Come off
Speaker 3: the by go to Seattle and hang thirteen. That's not
Speaker 3: good enough against Tampa Bay. I know that there was
Speaker 3: weather conditions, but like, I think the offense is not good,
Speaker 3: and I think that they're actually worse than what we've
Speaker 3: seen so far. So give me the Bucks minus five.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the Saint Tomas is pretty terrible actually
Speaker 1: when you look under the hood, and I don't hate it,
Speaker 1: but I am wondering though about it. This is interesting.
Speaker 1: So Brady is a unique animal, but you don't think
Speaker 1: that the playoff win sort of avengers that you think
Speaker 1: in his mind and in the Bucks mind, they're still like, no,
Speaker 1: not good enough, not good enough. After okay, because that
Speaker 1: was what did they win thirty eight.
Speaker 2: Y they handled pretty well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that game even was was a late like that
Speaker 3: was actually in there was a late fumble in the
Speaker 3: third quarter. I think it was Jared Cook fumble in
Speaker 3: like in the red zone. You know, they score there,
Speaker 3: they go up ten. That's a totally different game in
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter, and you know, we don't know what
Speaker 3: happens with the Bucks moving forward, right, so like that
Speaker 3: changes everything. So I think they'd love to absolutely curb
Speaker 3: stomp them here in a public way. The only thing
Speaker 3: that makes me a little nervous I Will Winson the
Speaker 3: CBS on he highlighted that this is going to be
Speaker 3: Halloween in New Orleans, and that's you know, again if
Speaker 3: going to get into some narratives like that would scare
Speaker 3: me a little bit. But again, I think that there's
Speaker 3: not enough unless those people are all going on the
Speaker 3: field to play defense.
Speaker 2: I still like the Bucks.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I hadn't even thought about that, but it makes
Speaker 1: me feel a little better about my second pick, which
Speaker 1: is in the same game, which again my guess is
Speaker 1: you might be on the other side of this one
Speaker 1: if you were forced to take a side which you
Speaker 1: are not. Of course, that's actually going to be the
Speaker 1: under in this same game, which is right now at fifty.
Speaker 1: It's bouncing back and forth. It was fifteen and a
Speaker 1: half at our sponsor bet MGM, so fifteen and a
Speaker 1: half I like it better. But obviously, you know, if
Speaker 1: it's under fifty one whatever, does make that much of
Speaker 1: a difference. But look, speaking of the Saints, and again
Speaker 1: I think we know exactly what their philosophy is right now,
Speaker 1: right we are going to lean on our defense, which
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, is very good. I like it as
Speaker 1: well a lot. They're going to play slow, They're going
Speaker 1: to play conservatively. They don't want to let Jamis do
Speaker 1: them in right by going for it and no risk
Speaker 1: at no biscuit, not anymore or not here anymore. They
Speaker 1: are twenty eighth in neutral situation pace of play. They
Speaker 1: run the ball fifty three percent of the time. That
Speaker 1: is by far the most in the NFL this year.
Speaker 1: Now they add mark ingram. I mean, not that it
Speaker 1: really matters, but that probably just says, hey, by the way,
Speaker 1: we want to even run the ball even more if
Speaker 1: we can. And of course you've got the Bucks defense
Speaker 1: which is great against the runs. So maybe not quite
Speaker 1: as much against pass catching running backs, but still very good.
Speaker 1: But the bottom line is there's going to be a
Speaker 1: lot of running in this game, at least from the
Speaker 1: Saints side. They want to probably they don't want to
Speaker 1: get into a shootout, of course, because of Brady. They
Speaker 1: want to bleed the clock as much as possible, relying
Speaker 1: on that defense, which is really good third overall in
Speaker 1: defensive DVOA. And now with the Bucks, Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: Brady is great and has a chip on the shoulder overall,
Speaker 1: I will I'll take your word for it even here
Speaker 1: that he still is mad about that even though he
Speaker 1: knocked them out of the playoffs, which is definitely possible. Uh,
Speaker 1: they're just not you know, they're not gonna have Antonio
Speaker 1: Brown here. I assume given that he was spotted on
Speaker 1: with a crutch and given Bruce Arian statements, they probably
Speaker 1: will get Gronk back. But you know, Marshall Latimore has
Speaker 1: a history of just taking Mike Evans for the most part,
Speaker 1: just right out of these games. And the Saints don't
Speaker 1: have a ton of sacks, but they get enough pressure
Speaker 1: twenty you know, more than twenty six percent pressure rate.
Speaker 1: That's six best in the League. So again these monstrous totals. Man,
Speaker 1: like we we just like fifty points right now is
Speaker 1: like nothing, right, we just think about it's like, oh
Speaker 1: it's fifty points. It doesn't jar you anymore. You're you
Speaker 1: got totals in fifty seven, right or you know, fifty
Speaker 1: six and a half. But that's a big that's a
Speaker 1: big total in a divisional game where I think that
Speaker 1: both have good defenses, the clock is gonna be running
Speaker 1: a lot. So I do think the Bucks win. I
Speaker 1: do think the Bucks cover this game. But I do
Speaker 1: not see a ton of scoring here from the Saints.
Speaker 1: I don't see a massive output from the Bucks either.
Speaker 1: I think the Bucks win. I think the Bucks cover,
Speaker 1: but I will take the under here on fifty or
Speaker 1: fifty and a half where you can get it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that play too, Dan, I think that
Speaker 2: there are a lot of outs there.
Speaker 3: Like you highlighted, we know that the Mike Evans thing
Speaker 3: is real, like those two dudes will battle. He has
Speaker 3: not had some great games and even like you mentioned,
Speaker 3: like Kamara that we know they want to run the ball.
Speaker 2: It's smart to throw him the ball.
Speaker 3: But in that second matchup last year, they held him
Speaker 3: to six catches I think five catches for nine yards,
Speaker 3: So like, yep, they're prepared for it. They're getting a
Speaker 3: little bit healthier on defense, not necessarily in the secondary
Speaker 3: per se, but at the linebacker position, some guys up front.
Speaker 3: So yeah, you can sell me on that under here
Speaker 3: in a big, big way, just shortened the Saints.
Speaker 1: Really, yes, correct, it's a lot on the Saints, for sure.
Speaker 1: I do not want to be watching this game and
Speaker 1: have an under and a Tom Brady like angry game,
Speaker 1: which now you have convinced me is probably gonna happen.
Speaker 3: But that's every way I'm going to go back to it, Dan,
Speaker 3: So if you can, you're convicted on you like the
Speaker 3: bucks as well because it's spread and you like the
Speaker 3: under in the game. It's this really comes down to
Speaker 3: shoring the Saints team total. So like this is a
Speaker 3: you don't have to be in bed with Tom Brady
Speaker 3: doing anything, Okay, you just take a Saints team total
Speaker 3: under and then tom Brady can go off and you're
Speaker 3: still safe.
Speaker 1: Perfect. I love it. I will do it. What's your
Speaker 1: third bet? Go ahead?
Speaker 2: Third bet? Another square one.
Speaker 3: The most public team I think in the entire league
Speaker 3: is the Dallas Cowboys. They are obviously rolling right now
Speaker 3: and they have not not covered at any point so
Speaker 3: far this year, and I like them. I think anywhere
Speaker 3: below three have seen two two and a half's out there.
Speaker 3: There's I think even a one and a half.
Speaker 1: There's a one and a half the consensus actually one
Speaker 1: a half and my book again, I'm in New Hampshire
Speaker 1: the DraftKings. It's one and a half right now. It's
Speaker 1: been dropping.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I absolutely love that.
Speaker 3: I think there is a I don't want to simplify
Speaker 3: the handicap here, but I think that there is just
Speaker 3: a massive trenches battle here that goes one way.
Speaker 2: Really.
Speaker 3: Outside of the Tampa game in Week one, Dallas is
Speaker 3: lean pretty run heavy this year right that was very
Speaker 3: game centric where they came out and they just chuck the
Speaker 3: ball over the field. They've been leaning on the dynamic
Speaker 3: offensive line. It's finally healthy and is running really well.
Speaker 3: They're first an offensive line adjusted lineyards per Football Outsiders.
Speaker 3: Defensively Minnesota thirty seconds and adjusted lineyards. Sometimes it's just
Speaker 3: that simple. I think they're going to be able to
Speaker 3: run at will really put Minnesota in a spot where
Speaker 3: they have to play catch up a little bit Minnesota
Speaker 3: can do that. But I also think that there's going
Speaker 3: to be enough here in the passing game on Dallas
Speaker 3: a's side where when they decide to turn it on,
Speaker 3: they're going to be fine. There's some injuries in the
Speaker 3: secondary for Minnesota that they think are going to be
Speaker 3: hard for them to overcome. And again I think that
Speaker 3: they have their way here. I think this is a
Speaker 3: nice live bet on the over if that happens. If
Speaker 3: Dallas gets up big and we force you know, Mike
Speaker 3: Zimmer to take the car out of the garage a
Speaker 3: little bit and start to throw the ball, they can
Speaker 3: do that with success. But I think they're going to
Speaker 3: have a really hard time slowing down Dallas.
Speaker 1: Okay, so I have two questions really here for it.
Speaker 1: Number One, when I saw this we do you know
Speaker 1: look ahead line sort of on Monday and opening reaction
Speaker 1: to it, it was two and a half and I
Speaker 1: was very much like, I don't understand this line. Why
Speaker 1: why would you not pound Dallas right now? Like this
Speaker 1: seems very obvious. I know they're on the road, I
Speaker 1: know it's a primetime game or whatever, but I mean,
Speaker 1: this just doesn't seem correct. The guy I did it
Speaker 1: with Matt Parraul didn't have that same reaction, so I
Speaker 1: was surprised there. My wonder is if the reason that
Speaker 1: was dropping is because of the Dak Prescott health situation,
Speaker 1: because like I think we all just sort of expected
Speaker 1: the way he's got the bye week, Like everything says
Speaker 1: the calf injury is minimal, but all the word out
Speaker 1: of Cowboys Camp is very much like, oh, things are trending,
Speaker 1: things are trending in the right direction. Is there any
Speaker 1: concern for you if you're a better and people are
Speaker 1: listening to this on a Thursday when we're recording it,
Speaker 1: do you wait and just see Prescott's health? I mean,
Speaker 1: does that concern you at all?
Speaker 2: No? But I think you can wait. So I think
Speaker 2: two things.
Speaker 3: I'm not concerned, but I think waiting is fine because
Speaker 3: if you're you know, we're still under the three and
Speaker 3: that's really all that matters in this spot. Like I do,
Speaker 3: I'm not super concerned about a one versus a two
Speaker 3: and a half. I'm so rare that it's going to
Speaker 3: fall on two or something like that. So yeah, I
Speaker 3: think you can absolutely wait. Until you start to see
Speaker 3: more practice reports, you start to feel a little bit
Speaker 3: more convicted on a Friday afternoon. I think that is
Speaker 3: absolutely why it is not at three currently.
Speaker 1: Yeah, both team's.
Speaker 3: Coming off a bye, so that's you know, not even
Speaker 3: a rest advantage for Minnesota at home like that kind
Speaker 3: of that stinks. Typically you like to have those spots.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that's absolutely why. But I'm fine
Speaker 3: waiting and I think you're still gonna be able to
Speaker 3: get under three.
Speaker 1: Yeah, because again when it was two and a half,
Speaker 1: it was something where I was like, I want to
Speaker 1: hit it now because I you know, I don't know,
Speaker 1: But then it was dropping and I again I assume
Speaker 1: it's just because of big questions on Prescott's health and
Speaker 1: again everything that comes out of it of Cowboys campus, Like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I expect to play, but you know, I you know,
Speaker 1: I don't want to hear expect to play like I
Speaker 1: want to be like, I'm totally fine, I'm ready to go.
Speaker 1: So maybe that's it. But certainly if Prescott plays, I'm
Speaker 1: absolutely on that side. And I said it when we
Speaker 1: did it on Monday. I think that's the right side.
Speaker 1: I'm surprised that the line came out under three, just
Speaker 1: with how much of a public side the Cowboys always are,
Speaker 1: but I'm with you for sure. I'm going back to
Speaker 1: a total, of course, and it's gonna be one that.
Speaker 1: On Monday, Matt Again, who he did the podcast with,
Speaker 1: was like, pound the over, pound the over. My initial
Speaker 1: reaction was, yeah, all right, I mean, I think the over,
Speaker 1: like you go back historically it probably hits, but I
Speaker 1: actually like the under on this game. It's the Titans
Speaker 1: and the Colts, which is at fifty one right now.
Speaker 1: We've got the two elite running backs, of course, and
Speaker 1: both teams just pound the ball into the ground when
Speaker 1: they can John Taylor and Derrick Henry. That means that
Speaker 1: the clock is gonna move. Tennessee runs forty eight percent
Speaker 1: of the time, that is fourth most in the league.
Speaker 1: Indianapolis runs forty five percent of time. That is the
Speaker 1: eighth most in the league. So Indianapolis, though has an
Speaker 1: elite run defense. They are number one in defensive DVA
Speaker 1: against the run, and they are the slowest team in
Speaker 1: the NFL in terms of neutral situation pace of play
Speaker 1: they ranked last. Tennessee ranks twenty third. These are both
Speaker 1: two teams that are in no hurry to get things going,
Speaker 1: that are more than willing to milk the clock rely
Speaker 1: in the run game, and again, Indianapolis has a great
Speaker 1: run defense, so I think that's going to cause Tennessee
Speaker 1: to not necessarily be able to staying these drives or
Speaker 1: anything like that where they're gonna, you know, result in touchdowns.
Speaker 1: It's a divisional game they've already met. Obviously, it was
Speaker 1: a little different before because Wentz wasn't healthy. The offensive
Speaker 1: line is getting a little better here for the Colts.
Speaker 1: I just think this strikes me as a more conservative
Speaker 1: sort of grind it out, tough game. You've got the
Speaker 1: Colts who need the win, right they this is their
Speaker 1: last chance here to get the division. They have bounced
Speaker 1: back very nicely from that loss against the Ravens, but
Speaker 1: they need this one because they lost already to the Titans.
Speaker 1: So there's gonna be two unders here For me on
Speaker 1: a Sunday, I'm going to be miserable watching the games.
Speaker 1: But to me, I don't know. Man. When I first
Speaker 1: looked at it, I understood like why the over might
Speaker 1: have been the play, And to be fair, I think
Speaker 1: the total opened up at forty nine or forty nine
Speaker 1: and a half. Now at fifty one, I'm gonna take
Speaker 1: the under I.
Speaker 2: Had the same reaction.
Speaker 3: So when I first saw it, I was like, oh,
Speaker 3: that feels like it feels like an overplay.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 3: But the more I dug into it, you know, I
Speaker 3: didn't click the button already. I waited a little bit
Speaker 3: so and then the more I dug into it, and I
Speaker 3: think I came the same realization that you did. Is
Speaker 3: I just feel that there are a lot of outs
Speaker 3: for this to be slow.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 3: I think there's a little bit of unsustainable efficiency on
Speaker 3: both sides. Offensively, you talked about how there's a you know,
Speaker 3: run funnel on the Colt side, knowing that the Titans
Speaker 3: want to lean run heavy. Yeah, I'm a little concerned
Speaker 3: against second time on the division. We know historically those
Speaker 3: end up being a little bit lower scoring as well,
Speaker 3: So there's a lot working in your favor here on
Speaker 3: the other.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really I probably would have put the Bucks last,
Speaker 1: like in terms of my favorite sort of picks, but
Speaker 1: I wanted to get him in there because you had
Speaker 1: just talked about the Bucks. I feel a little more
Speaker 1: confident in this one than I even do the Bucks.
Speaker 1: So let's recap very quickly. Then let's quickly just run
Speaker 1: through the remaining spreads and then we can get you
Speaker 1: out of here get back to making all your correct picks.
Speaker 1: You are taking the Bucks laying five and a half
Speaker 1: to the Saints, the Cowboys laying one and a half
Speaker 1: to the Vikings, and the Rams team total over thirty
Speaker 1: and a half. And I love all the team total
Speaker 1: stuff that you gave. It's really great information. I'm taking
Speaker 1: the Steelers getting three and a half against the Browns.
Speaker 1: I am taking the Bucks and the Saints under fifty
Speaker 1: or fifty and a half, especially if can get that,
Speaker 1: and the Titans and the Colts under fifty one. All Right,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna ask you about tonight because by the
Speaker 1: time people listening to this, the game has probably already happened.
Speaker 1: I don't want to have you on record, all right,
Speaker 1: I really want your opinion on the Bengals laying ten
Speaker 1: and a half in New Jersey against the Jets.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a hard thing too.
Speaker 3: I do you know a free look Ahead lines article
Speaker 3: every week at four for four. This this next week
Speaker 3: nine is in the hopper, should be out very soon.
Speaker 3: This is three and a half and again markets, So
Speaker 3: it's really hard to sometimes be like you know this
Speaker 3: is we're dying here now. I don't think that the
Speaker 3: Mike White Zach Wilson things worth seven points, but yeah,
Speaker 3: ten and a half is tough. This is also this
Speaker 3: is the third straight road game for the Bengals, right.
Speaker 3: Don't see it very often. It only happens a couple
Speaker 3: times a year. It happens the Colts already this year.
Speaker 3: Those things don't go really well typically, So like, ten
Speaker 3: and a half is too much, it's a stay away
Speaker 3: from me. That doesn't mean I have any conviction on
Speaker 3: the Jets side, but I can't take I can't lay
Speaker 3: the ten and a half on the Bengals.
Speaker 1: I think it's very clear that when you look at
Speaker 1: everything and the trends and everything that really goes into
Speaker 1: the fact that the line has moved this much means
Speaker 1: oh God, of course you take the Jets. But I
Speaker 1: cannot possibly take the Jets. Like there's no way. I
Speaker 1: did get in on the Bengals at nine and a
Speaker 1: half when it first sort of moved, because I was
Speaker 1: just like, oh, come on, Mike, I'm a Jets fan.
Speaker 1: I'm willing to admit that I was not prepared to
Speaker 1: see Mike White in a game, but I just at
Speaker 1: this point, it's just too high. But I understand that,
Speaker 1: like the sharp side is, there's so much value on
Speaker 1: the Jets. Come on, you gotta take the Jets. Can't
Speaker 1: do it, definitely can't do it no matter how high
Speaker 1: it gets. I'm just stayed away.
Speaker 2: But that's the question, right, what's the number gonna be?
Speaker 1: Oh, there's no number. I'm not kidding, like I get it,
Speaker 1: Like you want to like twenty one and playff They're like, well,
Speaker 1: but for the most part, no, I don't want to
Speaker 1: do it. I do because I don't have any faith
Speaker 1: in what I am going to see from a full
Speaker 1: week of preparing. Is Michael Carter gonna get eighteen targets here?
Speaker 1: You know, out of the running back position. You know
Speaker 1: who the heck knows at this point. So I'm staying
Speaker 1: far away. I'm interested actually in this one. I backed
Speaker 1: the Eagles so many times this year, and sometimes it's
Speaker 1: been good. I've gotten the nonber like against the Bucks.
Speaker 1: I meant, you know, I got the number right and
Speaker 1: everything like that. The Lions are at home against the Eagles.
Speaker 1: The Lions are getting three and a half.
Speaker 3: This might be the spot that the Lions get off
Speaker 3: the Schneid. Yeah, yeah, three and a half is a
Speaker 3: nice number.
Speaker 2: Two.
Speaker 3: So again, we're is the reason that this is the
Speaker 3: first time the Eagles are favored all year. You know,
Speaker 3: Jalen hurts his fun in our fantasy games. Yeah, but
Speaker 3: like you know, in the fourth quarter, and like he
Speaker 3: does it every single time every time. He'll probably do
Speaker 3: it again this week because I don't think we're going
Speaker 3: to have a game script where, like, you know, he's
Speaker 3: not going to be needed. This is definitely Lions or
Speaker 3: nothing for me. I don't have a ton of conviction
Speaker 3: in it. But a lot of smart people that I
Speaker 3: talk to and do this with also feel that the
Speaker 3: Lions are the play. So maybe, uh, you know, later
Speaker 3: today or no later than tomorrow afternoon. I probably take
Speaker 3: it because I think that three, I think that hook
Speaker 3: might go away.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if we did four bets on the show, then
Speaker 1: the fourth bet would have been the Lions. Definitely on
Speaker 1: this one. I think that look, they fight man like,
Speaker 1: but you know, they fight no matter what, and the
Speaker 1: Eagles are not good enough to put this game away
Speaker 1: in my opinion, like they just are not offensively good
Speaker 1: enough to put it away. I think the lines hang
Speaker 1: around here this will be something where I will sprinkle
Speaker 1: on the money line as well, but I will definitely
Speaker 1: take them getting three and a half. My personal plays
Speaker 1: not the official here. The Bills are laying fourteen at
Speaker 1: home against the Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 3: And so this is one of the only times, well
Speaker 3: I don't typically do this.
Speaker 2: I bet this in the preseason. I bet this.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 3: In Week five, I got the Bills minus seven. Dan,
Speaker 3: there's a massive, massive rest advantage here. This is so
Speaker 3: the Dolphins elected to not have the post London by right. Bizarre,
Speaker 3: but I but whatever, Like they thought they were gonna
Speaker 3: be contenders, they wanted a late season by They come
Speaker 3: home and play the Falcons off of bye.
Speaker 2: Not great.
Speaker 4: Now they go to Buffalo in the division, Buffalo fresh
Speaker 4: off of bye, who is absolutely destroy them the last
Speaker 4: two like ninety one to twenty six in the last
Speaker 4: two meetings.
Speaker 2: Destroyed.
Speaker 3: And I think that there is just what do the
Speaker 3: Dolphins do well? They do nothing well. And I think
Speaker 3: that the Bills don't like how they went into the buy.
Speaker 2: You know that there was a game that they should
Speaker 2: have won in Tennessee.
Speaker 3: Josh Allen was talking about how maybe we just get
Speaker 3: it right and we do what we did last year
Speaker 3: after the buye, which is not lose again until they
Speaker 3: get to the playoffs. So I think that they are
Speaker 3: on cruise control here. I mean, fourteen is hard.
Speaker 2: I can't take it.
Speaker 3: I got a couple of sevens, but like, I'm not
Speaker 3: touching Miami here whatsoever.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's awesome that you have some sevens. But all right, So,
Speaker 1: like fandal is still thirteen and a half. Do you
Speaker 1: care that it's below two touchdowns or yea? Yeah, okay, hey,
Speaker 1: when you're there, that's fine. How about the forty nine
Speaker 1: ers visiting the Bears. The forty nine ers are now
Speaker 1: laying four points in our contents is line?
Speaker 2: Yeah? This is gross. The Chicago thing is weird.
Speaker 3: You know. I want to be bullish on Justin Field's
Speaker 3: long term, but there's not a lot to be autimistic about. Again,
Speaker 3: it is a JV offensive line. It's a stay away
Speaker 3: from me. Have no interest in this game whatsoever. I
Speaker 3: would lean the Niners if you had to.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I think the Niners are probably the
Speaker 1: right side. I doubt I will have much action on
Speaker 1: this game. It's just I don't see how you can
Speaker 1: look at Justin fields right now and feel comfortable backing
Speaker 1: him whatsoever. He again, like you, no long term sort
Speaker 1: of proclamations on what the kid's future is going to
Speaker 1: be like, without question, but as of this moment, as
Speaker 1: of right now, especially with that offensive line, he's just
Speaker 1: overmatched and he's not making decisions quickly enough and he's
Speaker 1: just getting overwhelmed. So I would go with the Niners
Speaker 1: if I had to by it again, like you, it's
Speaker 1: a game I'm going to stay away from, as is
Speaker 1: the next one, which is the Falcons at home against
Speaker 1: the Panthers, which the Falcons laying three.
Speaker 3: Yeah, another one that's kind of gross. This one moved
Speaker 3: in a big way in the pre market. It was
Speaker 3: the other way. It was minus two and a half
Speaker 3: on the Panther side, So with five points of movements
Speaker 3: doesn't make any sense to me. There's kind of this
Speaker 3: narrative this week that like the Falcons are figuring it out.
Speaker 3: They barely won in London against the Jets. They blew
Speaker 3: a thirteen fourth quarter lead against Miami and needed a
Speaker 3: lot field wal to hold on. Like, no, you know,
Speaker 3: and I don't know what to make of the Sam
Speaker 3: Donald thing. So, like the talent is there turns out
Speaker 3: maybe Christian McCaffrey matters.
Speaker 1: J C.
Speaker 3: Horn might matter even though we lose them for a
Speaker 3: handful of games. So stay away from me. But you're gonna,
Speaker 3: you know, give me some points in Carolina. I would
Speaker 3: lean that way if we maybe get a three, but
Speaker 3: no conviction in the Falcons whatsoever.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean they should get a little healthier here,
Speaker 1: right or you know, Gilmour should probably play in this game.
Speaker 1: I assume, you know, for his first game. But regardless, Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's clearly value on the Panthers, right Like, there's no
Speaker 1: way that the Falcon should be favored here by three points.
Speaker 1: But I can't do it, like I can't with Sam
Speaker 1: Donald with the way he is playing right now. It's
Speaker 1: just a total stay away from me. We talked about
Speaker 1: the total in this game, but I'm interested in your
Speaker 1: feelings on the side. The Colts right now are laying
Speaker 1: one and a half to the Titans in Indianapolis.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I lean the Titans. I think my preferred way.
Speaker 3: I don't know I've been shorting the Colts. I just
Speaker 3: don't believe in them. I want to continue to probably
Speaker 3: do that. I still don't think the Titans are very
Speaker 3: good either that secondary is brodhere. I don't know how
Speaker 3: they did that last week, Like we're looking at like
Speaker 3: Greg Moulton and his name is now officially Jack Rabbits,
Speaker 3: Like that is unbelievable to me, Like why is it
Speaker 3: an underreported story? He changed genorous to jack Rabbit and
Speaker 3: we're all just like that's fine, that's yeah, people.
Speaker 5: Do that all the time, like it's fine, okay, like
Speaker 5: Jack Rabbit. So like Jack Rabbit is gonna hold it down. Yeah,
Speaker 5: I don't believe in either of these teams. It would
Speaker 5: be Titans.
Speaker 3: But again, I feel like there's a little bit of
Speaker 3: overreaction to how they played of late. But I don't
Speaker 3: think we need to like underrate how well they played
Speaker 3: against Buffalo in Kansas City.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I I think if I'm forced to go
Speaker 1: on one side and this is a stay away for me,
Speaker 1: I think I might lean the Colts just because I think,
Speaker 1: you know, at home, at some point, the Titans have
Speaker 1: to be due for a letdown at this right that
Speaker 1: huge win against Buffalo, the huge win against Kansas City,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna put that more on Kansas City as opposed
Speaker 1: to the strength of the Titans. Second, there were here. Sure,
Speaker 1: I think maybe everybody just takes away the explosive play
Speaker 1: and that's it. But I think i'd probably lean the Colts.
Speaker 1: But it's a total stay away from me. So I'm
Speaker 1: glad at least you don't have conviction either with it.
Speaker 1: We know you're going with the team total. Did you
Speaker 1: have a side with the Texans? Getting fourteen and a
Speaker 1: half from the Rams just.
Speaker 3: Goes back to our Jets conversation, Dan, what what's the
Speaker 3: number on the Texans?
Speaker 1: And there is no there is no number.
Speaker 3: On the Texans, buddy, Like this is Rams all day.
Speaker 3: You know, I like to have under fourteen and a half.
Speaker 3: But like, there's just there's absolutely nothing here that you know.
Speaker 3: If you have a Texans ticket, just do do not
Speaker 3: watch the game. Yeah, Pumpkin Patch, you know, take your
Speaker 3: kids trigger treating, Like, do not watch that one.
Speaker 1: I mean to Rod Taylor might be back. Yeah, hell
Speaker 1: but I've got nothing. Yeah, every book is fourteen and
Speaker 1: a half by the way, from what I love, it's
Speaker 1: total content. So there is no there's no value anywhere
Speaker 1: you can go. We talked all right about the Steelers
Speaker 1: and the Browns. How about the Seahawks laying three and
Speaker 1: a half to the Jaguars in Seattle.
Speaker 3: I want to back the Jaguars, especially if you can get.
Speaker 2: A three and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's where it is everywhere.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so like that's a little interesting to me. I
Speaker 3: know it was bouncing back and forth earlier today and there's.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah the Jews threes. Yeah, there are a couple
Speaker 1: of threes out there, but the overwhelming majority of books
Speaker 1: right now are at three and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean again, coming off the by, it's a
Speaker 3: long travel, But again I don't I feel like Pete
Speaker 3: Carroll wants to It's like the low level Saints perfect
Speaker 3: match of last week, Like he wants to get the
Speaker 3: game over as quick as possible.
Speaker 2: We want to.
Speaker 3: Hide Gino, but they don't have the defense that the
Speaker 3: Saints have where they can try to hide Jamis. So
Speaker 3: again I'm having to buy into hopefully that rookie after
Speaker 3: the bye maybe start to take a leap forward. They
Speaker 3: have a really strong run game. The offensive lines played
Speaker 3: really well. If they could stay in a neutral gamescript
Speaker 3: and run for a little bit longer than they've been
Speaker 3: able to, I think that they can keep it close.
Speaker 2: So if I'm gonna get a hook I kind of
Speaker 2: like the Jags.
Speaker 1: If there was a side that I had to take,
Speaker 1: it would be the Jags with the hook. I just
Speaker 1: I can't, you know, backing Urban Meyer is something where
Speaker 1: it's just like I don't I mean. And again, I
Speaker 1: had a couple of buddies who were like, do it
Speaker 1: in London against Miami and I was like, there's no
Speaker 1: way I will do it. But turned out to be
Speaker 1: the right side. Going into Seattle for the rookie quarterbacks
Speaker 1: still makes me a little nervous. But if there were
Speaker 1: a side, that is where I would go. What about
Speaker 1: the Chargers laying five to the Pats here in Los Angeles.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is one of my favorite games of the league.
Speaker 3: It's gonna be really interesting. We know that like Brandon
Speaker 3: Staley refuses to play seven even six guys in the box.
Speaker 3: They run in it by far the lowest rate in the league.
Speaker 3: They invite you to run, They want to force you
Speaker 3: in the third downs and hopefully you can make some
Speaker 3: mistakes there. New England very very willing to take whatever
Speaker 3: you're going to give them. They are fine with grinding
Speaker 3: it down, taking short intermediate passes and handing the ball
Speaker 3: to Damien Harris over and over again. So I think
Speaker 3: Harris has a nice day. I think Tunter Henry in
Speaker 3: a revenge spot has a nice day. Yeah, it's been
Speaker 3: really bad at defending the tight end position all year.
Speaker 3: I think we've seen some public money come in on
Speaker 3: New England here because it started to move from six
Speaker 3: down to even four and a half. Today we're getting
Speaker 3: kind of away from it. I would like to have
Speaker 3: in New England at six, but I would lean that way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. Yeah, there are some four and a
Speaker 1: halfs out there. You're right at FanDuel in particular, I'm
Speaker 1: noticing is there. But yeah, I lean the Pats. I'm
Speaker 1: probably not gonna bet it right now, like I would
Speaker 1: like it to go back up, but if you forced
Speaker 1: me to pick a side right now, I would probably
Speaker 1: take the Patriots at plus five. I think they match
Speaker 1: up well here, and I agree we probably could talk
Speaker 1: about some player props later in the week here about
Speaker 1: what we're going to see in this game. So I
Speaker 1: am with you there. We already talked about the Bucks
Speaker 1: in the Saints. How about Washington visiting Denver with the
Speaker 1: Broncos laying three.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you came into the year thinking that these are
Speaker 3: two of the best defensive teams in the league, and
Speaker 3: now they're like, you know, bottom third and basically epa
Speaker 3: DVA any important metric that you would want. Lots of
Speaker 3: injuries on both sides. I think that Washington is poor
Speaker 3: the defensive play. They still get a decent amount of pressure,
Speaker 3: and Denver's allowed a craptunder pressure on Teddy, who did
Speaker 3: not look very healthy. Now I know we've had ten
Speaker 3: days to recover. We're gonna get Jerry Judy backs. There's
Speaker 3: some things working in their faith. But like, I don't know,
Speaker 3: I think Washington's a little live and frisky here.
Speaker 2: I would lean that way.
Speaker 3: It's not a convicted play for me, But I think
Speaker 3: I liked the over here as well. But that's actually
Speaker 3: got pushed a little bit. It was like forty two
Speaker 3: and a half forty three all day yesterday. Now we're
Speaker 3: kind of on the wrong side of a key number
Speaker 3: at forty four and a half everywhere. But yeah, I
Speaker 3: mean I think Washington's actually live.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is forty four and a half pretty consistently there,
Speaker 1: So that makes it a little tougher. And I have
Speaker 1: lived early in the season, least on the Broncos unders
Speaker 1: for sure. I agree with you, though I major concerns
Speaker 1: about Denver, even with Judy coming back, who I love Bridgewater.
Speaker 1: You're right, A doesn't look healthy if you get pressure
Speaker 1: on him, which, as you mentioned, as disappointing as the
Speaker 1: Washington defense has been, they still get pressure. Bridgewater looks
Speaker 1: very nervous in the pocket, like his feet are just
Speaker 1: dancing the entire time. He does not want to get
Speaker 1: rid of the ball. So I agree with you. I
Speaker 1: think Washington can come up here actually steal this game overall.
Speaker 1: So certainly a sprinkle on the money line if you
Speaker 1: want to go that way, but getting three, I will
Speaker 1: take it. Last game Monday night football spreads are actually
Speaker 1: all over the place, and this one's fun to look at.
Speaker 1: Contentsus lines. I see nines, I see tens. The consensus
Speaker 1: right now is nine and a half because that's the
Speaker 1: majority of books, but there are tens chiefs laying let's
Speaker 1: say nine and a half here to the Giants.
Speaker 2: It's gonna happen eventually, right, They're gonna get it together.
Speaker 3: They have to, right, I mean they don't have to,
Speaker 3: but they have to.
Speaker 2: And the Giants aren't the team that's going to trip
Speaker 2: them up.
Speaker 3: But I didn't think the Titans are gonna be the
Speaker 3: team that trip them up, right, So like we're playing
Speaker 3: wackable here, but continue to bet on Patrick Mahomes I
Speaker 3: think is the right way to do it. Shorting Daniel
Speaker 3: Jones in primetime on the road I think is probably
Speaker 3: a plus D play.
Speaker 1: You gotta do it. You gotta do it, man, you
Speaker 1: gotta fire on it like this. You're right, this has
Speaker 1: to be the spot. This has to be for everything
Speaker 1: that we don't even know is healthy for the Giants
Speaker 1: right now on offense. Maybe they all are. I don't
Speaker 1: really care. I just this has to be after last week.
Speaker 1: This has to be the bounced back spot for sure
Speaker 1: for Kansas City in Arrowhead on a Monday night, and
Speaker 1: oh god, it's gotta be, and especially with it being
Speaker 1: under under ten as it is in my book as
Speaker 1: the consensus line. I will take it. Ryan, you were
Speaker 1: a joy to have today. We don't talk enough. It
Speaker 1: was great talking to you. You do fantastic work. As
Speaker 1: I've said, remind everybody where they can find it.
Speaker 3: Thanks Buddy podcast twice a week, Move the Line. We
Speaker 3: have a game by game preview which is available currently
Speaker 3: in any of your podcast feeds. We do that on
Speaker 3: Wednesday nights on our YouTube page. It comes out in
Speaker 3: podcast form on Thursday mornings, and then on Friday evenings
Speaker 3: we have a prop drop show where we focus just
Speaker 3: on player props that you can actually bet in the moment,
Speaker 3: so we're not giving you any stale lines. It is
Speaker 3: basically half of it is us giving the picks. The
Speaker 3: second half is very interactive. We want to take any
Speaker 3: of the bets that you're looking to get into. You
Speaker 3: can kind of bounce numbers off of us. We want
Speaker 3: to kind of make that very active and it's been
Speaker 3: great so far. We get all the contents over at
Speaker 3: four for four. A lot of great stuff coming out
Speaker 3: in the betting space in the next calendar year.
Speaker 1: He is Ryan Noonan. He is doing great things over there.
Speaker 1: Make sure you follow him at ry that's our Why
Speaker 1: Noonon over on Twitter. Enjoy your football, everybody. We'll be
Speaker 1: back again on Monday, breaking down an early look at
Speaker 1: the Week nine NFL lines. H