WEBVTT - Week 8 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 122) 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.119 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:19.919 to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:19.920 --> 0:00:22.680 Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We are 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:24.840 heading into week eight. It is time to talk about 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:27.080 our best bets, and here to do that with me 0:00:27.600 --> 0:00:30.000 is Ryan Noonan, the director of Betting over at four 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:32.440 for four Football and co host of the Move the 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:36.200 Line podcast. Find them on Twitter at RYE noon In. Ryan, 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:37.800 thanks so much for joining me today. How you doing. 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:40.080 I'm well, Dan, Thanks for having me body. I appreciate it. 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:42.920 I always enjoy talking shop with you me too. 0:00:43.000 --> 0:00:44.879 You're doing great work by the way over there, and 0:00:45.040 --> 0:00:47.120 I don't know if I congratulated you by the time 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:49.199 you took over, you know, head of the director of 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:51.560 betting over there, but you do great work. Your podcast 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:54.880 is great and look, I you know I should trail 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:58.080 you more. You've been quite quite hot this entire NFL season. 0:00:58.160 --> 0:00:59.360 So are you ready to keep it going? 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:00.360 Yeah? 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:01.960 You know, just trying to find the edges we can. 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:06.480 This is a hard game, you know, this speculator, you know, 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:08.520 against the spreads especially, so try to find any of 0:01:08.520 --> 0:01:10.280 the edges we can, so you know, we try to 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:12.600 spend a lot of time in the player prop streets 0:01:12.680 --> 0:01:14.679 or little edges and team totals. I love team totals. 0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:17.280 We got one for you today. Those have been unsustainably 0:01:17.280 --> 0:01:19.920 hot for me. But hopefully I do not go off 0:01:19.959 --> 0:01:21.520 the rails with you today, Dan. I hope we can 0:01:21.520 --> 0:01:23.440 continue to give winners to your audience. 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:25.720 Yeah. I really hope you don't screw it up by 0:01:25.760 --> 0:01:28.040 the time on this podcast. But whatever, man, it's fine 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:28.360 if you do. 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:28.680 All right. 0:01:28.680 --> 0:01:30.520 Before we get into it, let's remind you about the 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:33.800 latest offer from our sponsor, bet MGM. New customers bet 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:36.720 ten dollars, win two hundred dollars if your team scores 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:39.760 a touchdown again ten dollars. Any NFL game, win two 0:01:39.840 --> 0:01:42.399 hundred dollars in free bets if your team that you 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:46.759 bet on scores a touchdown. That's available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, 0:01:46.840 --> 0:01:52.360 West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:56.960 and Yoming with the code Juice one hundred. Again, that's 0:01:56.960 --> 0:01:58.800 the code you got to use for new customers to 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:00.520 be able to get that offer. Again. That's the daily 0:02:00.600 --> 0:02:03.040 Juice is where that code comes from our other podcast, 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:05.120 which you should be listening to. Also, it is almost 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:06.960 the end of the month, which means we are basically 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:10.400 ready to give away our sign Saquon Barkley Jersey. All 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:12.360 you gotta do to enter to our contest is to 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:14.880 leave review for the show on Apple Podcasts or cast 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:17.959 box and then go to betting pro dot com slash review. 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:20.000 If you're a subscribe to our YouTube channel, you get 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:23.800 three times the entry YouTube dot com slash betting pros Quickly, 0:02:23.840 --> 0:02:26.320 let us recap last week. Our guest Ian McMillan, hit 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:28.400 on two of his three bets. He hit on the 0:02:28.440 --> 0:02:30.480 Bengals on the money line at plus two thirty over 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:33.160 the Ravens, great pick there, and the Bucks laying twelve 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:34.800 and a half to the Bears. He missed on the 0:02:34.880 --> 0:02:37.480 Jets Patriots under forty two and a half, a game 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:40.400 I admittedly also liked very much. I had my first 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:42.640 losing week since Week one. I went one and two. 0:02:42.760 --> 0:02:44.920 I missed on the Panthers lank three to the Giants, 0:02:45.200 --> 0:02:47.760 had the Eagles as well getting through from the Raiders, 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:50.120 which was just wrong. I did hit on the Giants 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:52.040 and the Panthers under forty three, So that puts me 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:55.280 at thirteen to eight on the season. Let's go. I'm 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:57.040 very excited to not have to deal with so many 0:02:57.040 --> 0:02:59.280 teams on by Remember we'll be using betting pros dot 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:01.680 Com Consensus, all the good stuff. You can check us 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:03.799 out on the app. Do whatever you want there. Check 0:03:03.800 --> 0:03:06.280 out the leader board. Ryan, You are our guest. Our 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:09.160 guest gets to make the first selection. Go ahead, what's 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:10.120 your number one pick? 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:10.440 All? 0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:11.160 Is pressure? 0:03:11.200 --> 0:03:11.359 Man? 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:11.560 Like? 0:03:12.480 --> 0:03:14.520 You have those your first losing weeks since week one? 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:18.040 Correct? Look it's three bats every time, so I'm going 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:20.679 three and hour two in one. It's fine. Look you're 0:03:20.760 --> 0:03:22.760 the guy. I see the tweets coming out about how 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:25.480 you never get a single pick wrong. So if you 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:28.519 don't go three and oh here, I don't know, never 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:30.320 allowed back Ever, that's. 0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:31.760 Not coming from my accounts. I don't know where that's 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:32.200 coming from. 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:37.400 Those are false falsehoods for sure. You know what, I'll 0:03:37.440 --> 0:03:39.440 go with the team total to start, Dan, because you 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:42.240 know this is kind of this that is where maybe 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:46.640 the talk of me being maybe better than than advertised 0:03:46.720 --> 0:03:49.160 is coming so far. So you know, can I start 0:03:49.200 --> 0:03:51.640 a little bit with philosophy? Is I think team totals 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:54.400 are I think there's an edge there. I think that 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:56.960 there's an inefficient market in team totals. They are not 0:03:57.120 --> 0:04:01.280 typically set specifically by the books, and what I mean 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:04.560 by that is that it's simply derived from the spread 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:07.080 in the game total. And then what happens is is 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:10.320 some of these books, the majority of the main books 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:13.200 that we have access to, move them as the line 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:15.720 or the total moves, and what happens is we get 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:18.640 these little buying windows where we can work around key 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:23.400 numbers that becomes really advantageous. We know, like three and 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:27.560 seven key numbers and spreads totals, Like there's the distribution 0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:30.479 of totals and points scored is changing as this game 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:32.280 continues to change, where you know, we have these key 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:35.240 numbers up in the upper fifties which we've never had before, 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:37.680 but we have some you know, common key numbers in 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:41.440 the twenties that sometimes we'll get some buying opportunities. There's 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:44.479 one this week, I like the Rams over thirty and 0:04:44.520 --> 0:04:47.840 a half points against the Texans. Again, when you look 0:04:47.839 --> 0:04:50.560 at how the distribution of scores happened, thirty one ends 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:53.120 up being a pretty key number in team totals. And 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:56.840 this Texans team is terrible. And when we've seen the Rams, 0:04:57.000 --> 0:04:58.560 I think they were kind of caught off guard last week. 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:00.640 You know, we had the Dan Campbell kitchen sink game. 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:02.880 Would you love to see when you know that you're 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:05.520 up against the up against it, you're the massive underdog here. 0:05:05.600 --> 0:05:08.680 Let's try to give you everything we can to give 0:05:08.720 --> 0:05:11.839 ourselves the best chance. And they hung around a little bit. 0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:14.599 The Texans don't have that. They don't really have anything 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:17.320 defensively that makes you think that they can slow down 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:19.880 anything that the Rams are doing. The Rams can beyond 0:05:19.880 --> 0:05:22.760 cruise control and still hang crooked numbers. We know that 0:05:22.760 --> 0:05:25.080 they like to throw late they you know, I think 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:27.600 we saw a Cooper Cup touchdown a couple of weeks 0:05:27.640 --> 0:05:29.760 ago when they were, you know, up by thirty against 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:32.640 the Giants, Like they are pedals to the metal all 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:34.880 the way through here. They can stumble and still get 0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:38.000 to thirty one very comfortable, comfortably against this Texans team. 0:05:38.040 --> 0:05:40.960 So give me Rams over thirty and a half. And 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:42.960 it's a market. If you're a listener and you're really 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:45.640 kind of sides and totals, look into team totals a 0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:47.480 little bit more. You know, watch a couple of games, 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:49.880 get an understanding of where you think that line should be, 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:51.839 and then wait for some line movement you can you 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:53.120 can jump on some key numbers. 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:56.120 That's interesting because I'll be honest, I don't bet a 0:05:56.160 --> 0:05:58.960 lot of just team totals. I occasionally do, but for 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:00.600 the most part. But to you, oh, it sounds like 0:06:00.640 --> 0:06:02.719 what you're saying is like that is the single most 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:07.200 inefficient part of the betting market right now for NFL games, right, yeah. 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:09.279 I mean outside of player props. Right, So, player props 0:06:09.560 --> 0:06:11.960 we have, you know, they are speculative. We don't even know, 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:13.719 like you can get a bad line, and we don't 0:06:13.720 --> 0:06:14.400 necessarily know that. 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:15.800 You got a bad line. 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:18.000 You might have got the worst line, but it doesn't 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:20.279 mean that it's an efficient line. The market's so inefficient 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:22.120 to begin with. But yeah, as far as like your 0:06:22.160 --> 0:06:24.680 traditional market stand, I definitely think that it is a 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:28.279 buying opportunity because they don't necessarily think of it and 0:06:28.320 --> 0:06:31.520 don't move it by itself. It's not a separate market. 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:34.000 It kind of moves with the two main markets. 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:37.000 All right. I like it rams team total over thirty 0:06:37.000 --> 0:06:39.039 and a half. Okay, I'll try the on it. I 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:41.599 love it all right. So I've got a couple over unders. 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:43.760 I'm gonna leave them. They're both unders, which makes me 0:06:43.800 --> 0:06:46.400 want to vomit right now because I just it's horrible 0:06:46.480 --> 0:06:48.840 to be rooting for people not to score. So I'm 0:06:48.839 --> 0:06:50.960 gonna go with the spread bet, and my guess is 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:52.880 going to be a little surprising because I don't this 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:55.200 doesn't strike me as a line or a game necessarily 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:57.400 that anybody wants to target. But I'm going to take 0:06:57.480 --> 0:07:00.560 the Steelers getting three and a half against the So 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:04.000 when you give me Mike Tomlin generally speaking as an underdog, 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:07.680 I am automatically intrigued, right like I'm automatically okay, all right, 0:07:07.720 --> 0:07:09.400 you're gonna get the guys up for this. When you 0:07:09.440 --> 0:07:12.240 give me him as a road underdog, then I'm really 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:13.960 interested in it because I think that's sort of the 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:17.320 quote unquote Mike Toblin spot. Now, the obvious stuff here 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:19.280 is that the Browns have a ton of question marks 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:21.360 going on right now. We don't know who's going to 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:24.280 play quarterback in my Bigger Mayfield might be case Keenum. 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:26.680 We don't know if Odell Beckham Junior is going to 0:07:26.720 --> 0:07:28.800 be playing in this game. We don't necessarily even know 0:07:28.880 --> 0:07:30.320 that Jarvis Landry is going to play in this game, 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:32.480 although it is trending in that direction. And I know 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:34.800 we got excited because you know, the spread was dropping 0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:36.760 with all the injuries, and they come out and they 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:40.200 beat the Broncos. But that's a bad Broncos team who's 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:42.800 missing Von Miller for most of the game and whose 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:45.920 linebacker group is terrible that you beat by three points. 0:07:45.960 --> 0:07:48.640 So this, to me strikes me as just a bad 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:52.120 matchup for the Pittsburgh offense, no matter what. For the 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:54.160 I'm sorry for the Browns offense, no matter what. Pittsburgh 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:57.120 is ninth in defensive DVOA. They're good against both the 0:07:57.200 --> 0:07:59.760 run and the pass, and they're one of the tops 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.960 in the league at pressure rate and especially getting pressure 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.400 despite not blitzing a ton. And I really think that 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:07.960 that is the key here when you want to slow 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:10.240 down either Baker Mayfield is not great under pressure or 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:13.760 case Schemham, who historically has not been very good under pressure. 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:16.440 So I think defensively here, I really think that they're 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:18.440 going to be able to stack the box against Nick Chubb, 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:20.280 who should return here, and still be able to get 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:23.400 pressure on Baker Mayfield, So I don't expect much to 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:26.680 go right for Cleveland offensively on the other side the ball, 0:08:26.720 --> 0:08:29.160 I mean, the Steelers are coming off the buy, their 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:31.480 offensive lines getting a little better. Now they're gelling, the 0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:34.679 scheme changed a little bit, Naji Harris coming into his own. 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:36.680 I know Cleveland's good against the run, but again Najie 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:39.560 Harris has been heavily involved. Ben Roethlisberger looks a little better, 0:08:39.600 --> 0:08:42.720 looks a little healthier. Chase Claypole was getting healthier as well. 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:44.960 Browns or midle of the pack defensively in Dvoa. But 0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:46.760 they're twenty thirty against the pass. So I do think 0:08:46.760 --> 0:08:48.800 that the Steelers are going to be able to go here. 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:50.680 I think the Steelers actually win this game out right. 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:52.960 But if you're giving me the hook in particular over 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:55.280 three and a half, that's what I'm going to take. 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:57.800 So I told you before we started recording, Ryan that 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:01.480 you should give your honest assess of any pick I make, 0:09:01.520 --> 0:09:02.800 and if you want to fade it, you can fade. 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:04.440 If you want to follow it, follow it. What's your 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:05.480 assessment of this one? 0:09:05.840 --> 0:09:07.800 I think the last piece of advice was really sharp. 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:11.360 If take the money line, so if you really like 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.680 Pittsburgh here, especially when we're you know, looking at these 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:19.240 these dogs under six, under seven. We've seen an outrageous 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:21.160 clip this year where those teams are actually just winning 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:23.679 out right. So like you're gonna get a like plus 0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:26.600 one sixty here or something like that, Like just take that, 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:29.240 and you know, it's very rare that you're gonna have 0:09:29.280 --> 0:09:32.600 this fall within that three window and not have Pittsburgh 0:09:32.600 --> 0:09:34.920 win outright as well. This is a toss up to me, 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:37.760 Like I this has happened two years in a row 0:09:37.760 --> 0:09:39.360 now where Pittsburgh is on like the wrong side of 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:41.240 the rest advantage of a bye. They're coming off a bye, 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:43.320 but like the Browns have the mini by because. 0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:44.080 Of the Saturday night game. 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:45.440 Yes, it is very. 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:47.800 Telling that the line is still on the board despite 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:49.720 not knowing who's on the quarterback. That kind of speaks 0:09:49.720 --> 0:09:53.240 to like, it's not necessarily a massive downgrade from from 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:57.280 Baker to case Keenum. Yeah, I mean, I think he 0:09:57.320 --> 0:09:58.800 made some good points. It's gonna be tough slutting. I 0:09:58.840 --> 0:10:02.160 think for now, I think you know, this is again 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:04.760 a low total, So I would lean under, would probably 0:10:04.800 --> 0:10:07.800 be my most convicted lean in this scheme. But even 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:09.360 that I hold very very loosely. 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:12.280 So you've selling many unders, man, too many unders, and 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:14.960 I can't go after it again. Yeah, so it might 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:17.320 be something where I mean, maybe it's an in game 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:20.240 a same game parla there where you tease their same 0:10:20.280 --> 0:10:23.080 game teaser where you tease up the Steelers to tease 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:25.760 up the total and go under. Yeah, you're dead on 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:28.160 it's plus one sixty on the money line. I do 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:30.079 think that it's it's a point. I don't make that enough, 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:31.760 by the way, So I'm glad that you're kind of 0:10:31.800 --> 0:10:34.240 harping on it, which is if you are taking, you know, 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:38.000 a dog here within like six points whatever it is, 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:40.760 but a dog that's not outrageous, always sprinkle on the 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:43.520 money line regardless of it, because you're right, they have 0:10:43.600 --> 0:10:45.760 been hitting it at a clip. But also it's it's 0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:48.640 close enough there where there's almost certainly value. All right, 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:50.559 that's my number one. Go ahead with your number two. 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:51.240 Pick what do you got? 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:52.240 I like it. 0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:55.400 This is a square I get a couple of square 0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:58.080 sides for the listeners today. I feel like they're gonna 0:10:58.080 --> 0:10:59.679 be public lines, but I feel like there's a reason 0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:01.840 that they're to be public lines, and maybe they get steamed. 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:02.959 Now you can get a little bit of the best 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:04.440 of the number, they might get a little bit more 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:08.720 expensive as the weekend approaches. Give me Tampa Bay minus five. 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:11.280 I'm not sure if what the consensus lying there is 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:13.559 at betting pros currently. 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:14.280 Five and a half. 0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:16.160 Between five, five and a half, it bounce it back. 0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:17.319 Yeah, so anywhere under six. 0:11:17.360 --> 0:11:19.320 We're also dealing with some new key, you know, key 0:11:19.440 --> 0:11:22.200 numbers in this new NFL two where six is becoming 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:23.079 as common as seven. 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:24.360 So that's interesting. 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.280 Yeah, I feel like there's a little bit of dan 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:28.360 I'm not sure if you're a curb your enthusiasm fan, 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:32.200 there's a little bit of like spite store stuff going 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:36.080 on here with Tampa Bay. You know Larry built, you know, 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:38.960 and ran a coffee shop out of spite with Mocha Joe. 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:41.040 I think that there's a little bit of that vibe 0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:44.000 going on with Tampa Bay this year. It happened last 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:46.600 week too, So it was the Thursday night game against Philly, 0:11:47.080 --> 0:11:48.079 and you know. 0:11:48.280 --> 0:11:51.560 Everyone's still leaving. The game's barely over right. 0:11:51.480 --> 0:11:55.960 That's the everyone's still sweating, and Levante David sits down 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:57.599 at the desk with the NFL Network guys, and it 0:11:57.679 --> 0:12:00.000 is talking about how stoked the Boys are to get 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:03.520 to Chicago because they were in barrass last year and 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:05.360 it was like Tom Brady went down as a game 0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:08.360 and they wanted to make a statement against the Bears. 0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:10.600 Last week. I loved them last week. I got a 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:12.840 minus ten. You could not have said that number too 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:15.959 high for me. And I think that this is another 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:18.720 team where like these two teams played three times last year, 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:20.520 they meant the playoffs as well as obviously the two 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:23.680 divisional matchups, and the Saints stuck it to him once. 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:27.280 They beat him twice, obviously the season opener, but like 0:12:27.320 --> 0:12:31.200 that game in Tampa, like they rolled them, And I 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:33.800 think that this is something that like you know, Brady 0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:36.679 looks for these little edges and can galvanize the locker room. 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:39.000 And I think that they want to kind of remind 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:42.199 the Saints that we don't want you in the playoffs. 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:45.560 This is our division, and they go out here and 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:48.439 make a statement and take care of business. This becomes 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:52.040 really their division here, you know, cruising the rest of 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:53.880 the way, even though we're only in week nine or 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:56.400 week eight at this point. So like I think Tampa 0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:58.760 makes a statement anything under six. I love laying the 0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:00.520 points here. I don't know what to make of the Saints, 0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:02.720 so I don't think they're very good. I think the 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:06.320 defense is good, but like, offensively, they're twenty ninth in 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:08.400 yards per drive. I think they are thirtieth in points 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:11.520 per drive. No, but they're thirtieth in yards per drive. 0:13:11.520 --> 0:13:14.680 But they're first in points per red zone appearance and 0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:17.520 they're second in touchdowns per red zone appearance. That is 0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:21.120 massively unsustainable. Like their offense is not good. Come off 0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:24.199 the by go to Seattle and hang thirteen. That's not 0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:26.920 good enough against Tampa Bay. I know that there was 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:29.439 weather conditions, but like, I think the offense is not good, 0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:31.320 and I think that they're actually worse than what we've 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:33.160 seen so far. So give me the Bucks minus five. 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:36.920 Yeah, I think the Saint Tomas is pretty terrible actually 0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:39.880 when you look under the hood, and I don't hate it, 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:41.920 but I am wondering though about it. This is interesting. 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:45.560 So Brady is a unique animal, but you don't think 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:48.840 that the playoff win sort of avengers that you think 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:51.280 in his mind and in the Bucks mind, they're still like, no, 0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:54.559 not good enough, not good enough. After okay, because that 0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:56.200 was what did they win thirty eight. 0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:57.480 Y they handled pretty well. 0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:00.160 Yeah, that game even was was a late like that 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:03.319 was actually in there was a late fumble in the 0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:05.719 third quarter. I think it was Jared Cook fumble in 0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:08.079 like in the red zone. You know, they score there, 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:10.120 they go up ten. That's a totally different game in 0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:11.680 the fourth quarter, and you know, we don't know what 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:14.280 happens with the Bucks moving forward, right, so like that 0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:17.520 changes everything. So I think they'd love to absolutely curb 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.840 stomp them here in a public way. The only thing 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:22.920 that makes me a little nervous I Will Winson the 0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:25.720 CBS on he highlighted that this is going to be 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:30.480 Halloween in New Orleans, and that's you know, again if 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:32.600 going to get into some narratives like that would scare 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:34.520 me a little bit. But again, I think that there's 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:36.520 not enough unless those people are all going on the 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:37.440 field to play defense. 0:14:38.360 --> 0:14:39.200 I still like the Bucks. 0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:41.920 Yeah, I hadn't even thought about that, but it makes 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:44.520 me feel a little better about my second pick, which 0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:46.840 is in the same game, which again my guess is 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:48.320 you might be on the other side of this one 0:14:48.360 --> 0:14:50.720 if you were forced to take a side which you 0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:52.920 are not. Of course, that's actually going to be the 0:14:53.000 --> 0:14:55.600 under in this same game, which is right now at fifty. 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:57.240 It's bouncing back and forth. It was fifteen and a 0:14:57.240 --> 0:14:59.560 half at our sponsor bet MGM, so fifteen and a 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:01.640 half I like it better. But obviously, you know, if 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:03.920 it's under fifty one whatever, does make that much of 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:07.680 a difference. But look, speaking of the Saints, and again 0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:10.800 I think we know exactly what their philosophy is right now, 0:15:10.840 --> 0:15:12.640 right we are going to lean on our defense, which 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:15.200 as you mentioned, is very good. I like it as 0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:17.520 well a lot. They're going to play slow, They're going 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.640 to play conservatively. They don't want to let Jamis do 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:23.000 them in right by going for it and no risk 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:25.520 at no biscuit, not anymore or not here anymore. They 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:28.080 are twenty eighth in neutral situation pace of play. They 0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:30.560 run the ball fifty three percent of the time. That 0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:33.880 is by far the most in the NFL this year. 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.000 Now they add mark ingram. I mean, not that it 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:38.440 really matters, but that probably just says, hey, by the way, 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.240 we want to even run the ball even more if 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:43.480 we can. And of course you've got the Bucks defense 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:46.520 which is great against the runs. So maybe not quite 0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:49.200 as much against pass catching running backs, but still very good. 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:50.880 But the bottom line is there's going to be a 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:53.600 lot of running in this game, at least from the 0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:55.680 Saints side. They want to probably they don't want to 0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:57.880 get into a shootout, of course, because of Brady. They 0:15:57.880 --> 0:15:59.920 want to bleed the clock as much as possible, relying 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:02.360 on that defense, which is really good third overall in 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:05.640 defensive DVOA. And now with the Bucks, Yeah, I mean, 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:08.680 Brady is great and has a chip on the shoulder overall, 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:10.560 I will I'll take your word for it even here 0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:12.920 that he still is mad about that even though he 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:16.400 knocked them out of the playoffs, which is definitely possible. Uh, 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:18.320 they're just not you know, they're not gonna have Antonio 0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:20.360 Brown here. I assume given that he was spotted on 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:22.760 with a crutch and given Bruce Arian statements, they probably 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:25.960 will get Gronk back. But you know, Marshall Latimore has 0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:28.000 a history of just taking Mike Evans for the most part, 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.800 just right out of these games. And the Saints don't 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:33.480 have a ton of sacks, but they get enough pressure 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:36.240 twenty you know, more than twenty six percent pressure rate. 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:39.520 That's six best in the League. So again these monstrous totals. Man, 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:42.160 like we we just like fifty points right now is 0:16:42.160 --> 0:16:43.720 like nothing, right, we just think about it's like, oh 0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:45.840 it's fifty points. It doesn't jar you anymore. You're you 0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:48.520 got totals in fifty seven, right or you know, fifty 0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:50.800 six and a half. But that's a big that's a 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:53.440 big total in a divisional game where I think that 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:56.640 both have good defenses, the clock is gonna be running 0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:59.480