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Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought

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Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.

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Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We are

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Speaker 1: heading into week eight. It is time to talk about

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Speaker 1: our best bets, and here to do that with me

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Speaker 1: is Ryan Noonan, the director of Betting over at four

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Speaker 1: for four Football and co host of the Move the

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Speaker 1: Line podcast. Find them on Twitter at RYE noon In. Ryan,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining me today. How you doing.

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Speaker 2: I'm well, Dan, Thanks for having me body. I appreciate it.

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Speaker 3: I always enjoy talking shop with you me too.

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Speaker 1: You're doing great work by the way over there, and

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I congratulated you by the time

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Speaker 1: you took over, you know, head of the director of

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Speaker 1: betting over there, but you do great work. Your podcast

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Speaker 1: is great and look, I you know I should trail

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Speaker 1: you more. You've been quite quite hot this entire NFL season.

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Speaker 1: So are you ready to keep it going?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: You know, just trying to find the edges we can.

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Speaker 3: This is a hard game, you know, this speculator, you know,

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Speaker 3: against the spreads especially, so try to find any of

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Speaker 3: the edges we can, so you know, we try to

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Speaker 3: spend a lot of time in the player prop streets

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Speaker 3: or little edges and team totals. I love team totals.

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Speaker 3: We got one for you today. Those have been unsustainably

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Speaker 3: hot for me. But hopefully I do not go off

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Speaker 3: the rails with you today, Dan. I hope we can

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Speaker 3: continue to give winners to your audience.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I really hope you don't screw it up by

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Speaker 1: the time on this podcast. But whatever, man, it's fine

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Speaker 1: if you do.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: Before we get into it, let's remind you about the

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Speaker 1: Juice is where that code comes from our other podcast,

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Speaker 1: which you should be listening to. Also, it is almost

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Speaker 1: the end of the month, which means we are basically

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Speaker 1: ready to give away our sign Saquon Barkley Jersey. All

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Speaker 1: you gotta do to enter to our contest is to

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Speaker 1: leave review for the show on Apple Podcasts or cast

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Speaker 1: box and then go to betting pro dot com slash review.

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Speaker 1: If you're a subscribe to our YouTube channel, you get

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Speaker 1: three times the entry YouTube dot com slash betting pros Quickly,

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Speaker 1: let us recap last week. Our guest Ian McMillan, hit

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Speaker 1: on two of his three bets. He hit on the

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Speaker 1: Bengals on the money line at plus two thirty over

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Speaker 1: the Ravens, great pick there, and the Bucks laying twelve

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Speaker 1: and a half to the Bears. He missed on the

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Speaker 1: Jets Patriots under forty two and a half, a game

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Speaker 1: I admittedly also liked very much. I had my first

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Speaker 1: losing week since Week one. I went one and two.

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Speaker 1: I missed on the Panthers lank three to the Giants,

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Speaker 1: had the Eagles as well getting through from the Raiders,

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Speaker 1: which was just wrong. I did hit on the Giants

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Speaker 1: and the Panthers under forty three, So that puts me

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Speaker 1: at thirteen to eight on the season. Let's go. I'm

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Speaker 1: very excited to not have to deal with so many

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Speaker 1: teams on by Remember we'll be using betting pros dot

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Speaker 1: Com Consensus, all the good stuff. You can check us

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Speaker 1: out on the app. Do whatever you want there. Check

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Speaker 1: out the leader board. Ryan, You are our guest. Our

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Speaker 1: guest gets to make the first selection. Go ahead, what's

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Speaker 1: your number one pick?

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Speaker 3: All?

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Speaker 2: Is pressure?

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Speaker 1: Man?

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Speaker 3: Like?

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Speaker 2: You have those your first losing weeks since week one?

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Speaker 1: Correct? Look it's three bats every time, so I'm going

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Speaker 1: three and hour two in one. It's fine. Look you're

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Speaker 1: the guy. I see the tweets coming out about how

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Speaker 1: you never get a single pick wrong. So if you

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Speaker 1: don't go three and oh here, I don't know, never

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Speaker 1: allowed back Ever, that's.

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Speaker 2: Not coming from my accounts. I don't know where that's

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Speaker 2: coming from.

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Speaker 3: Those are false falsehoods for sure. You know what, I'll

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Speaker 3: go with the team total to start, Dan, because you

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Speaker 3: know this is kind of this that is where maybe

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Speaker 3: the talk of me being maybe better than than advertised

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Speaker 3: is coming so far. So you know, can I start

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Speaker 3: a little bit with philosophy? Is I think team totals

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Speaker 3: are I think there's an edge there. I think that

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Speaker 3: there's an inefficient market in team totals. They are not

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Speaker 3: typically set specifically by the books, and what I mean

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Speaker 3: by that is that it's simply derived from the spread

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Speaker 3: in the game total. And then what happens is is

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Speaker 3: some of these books, the majority of the main books

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Speaker 3: that we have access to, move them as the line

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Speaker 3: or the total moves, and what happens is we get

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Speaker 3: these little buying windows where we can work around key

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Speaker 3: numbers that becomes really advantageous. We know, like three and

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Speaker 3: seven key numbers and spreads totals, Like there's the distribution

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Speaker 3: of totals and points scored is changing as this game

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Speaker 3: continues to change, where you know, we have these key

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Speaker 3: numbers up in the upper fifties which we've never had before,

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Speaker 3: but we have some you know, common key numbers in

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Speaker 3: the twenties that sometimes we'll get some buying opportunities. There's

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Speaker 3: one this week, I like the Rams over thirty and

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Speaker 3: a half points against the Texans. Again, when you look

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Speaker 3: at how the distribution of scores happened, thirty one ends

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Speaker 3: up being a pretty key number in team totals. And

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Speaker 3: this Texans team is terrible. And when we've seen the Rams,

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Speaker 3: I think they were kind of caught off guard last week.

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Speaker 3: You know, we had the Dan Campbell kitchen sink game.

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Speaker 3: Would you love to see when you know that you're

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Speaker 3: up against the up against it, you're the massive underdog here.

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Speaker 3: Let's try to give you everything we can to give

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Speaker 3: ourselves the best chance. And they hung around a little bit.

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Speaker 3: The Texans don't have that. They don't really have anything

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Speaker 3: defensively that makes you think that they can slow down

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Speaker 3: anything that the Rams are doing. The Rams can beyond

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Speaker 3: cruise control and still hang crooked numbers. We know that

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Speaker 3: they like to throw late they you know, I think

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Speaker 3: we saw a Cooper Cup touchdown a couple of weeks

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Speaker 3: ago when they were, you know, up by thirty against

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Speaker 3: the Giants, Like they are pedals to the metal all

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Speaker 3: the way through here. They can stumble and still get

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Speaker 3: to thirty one very comfortable, comfortably against this Texans team.

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Speaker 3: So give me Rams over thirty and a half. And

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Speaker 3: it's a market. If you're a listener and you're really

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Speaker 3: kind of sides and totals, look into team totals a

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Speaker 3: little bit more. You know, watch a couple of games,

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Speaker 3: get an understanding of where you think that line should be,

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Speaker 3: and then wait for some line movement you can you

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Speaker 3: can jump on some key numbers.

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Speaker 1: That's interesting because I'll be honest, I don't bet a

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Speaker 1: lot of just team totals. I occasionally do, but for

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Speaker 1: the most part. But to you, oh, it sounds like

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Speaker 1: what you're saying is like that is the single most

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Speaker 1: inefficient part of the betting market right now for NFL games, right, yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean outside of player props. Right, So, player props

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Speaker 3: we have, you know, they are speculative. We don't even know,

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Speaker 3: like you can get a bad line, and we don't

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Speaker 3: necessarily know that.

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Speaker 2: You got a bad line.

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Speaker 3: You might have got the worst line, but it doesn't

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Speaker 3: mean that it's an efficient line. The market's so inefficient

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Speaker 3: to begin with. But yeah, as far as like your

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Speaker 3: traditional market stand, I definitely think that it is a

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Speaker 3: buying opportunity because they don't necessarily think of it and

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Speaker 3: don't move it by itself. It's not a separate market.

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Speaker 3: It kind of moves with the two main markets.

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Speaker 1: All right. I like it rams team total over thirty

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Speaker 1: and a half. Okay, I'll try the on it. I

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Speaker 1: love it all right. So I've got a couple over unders.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna leave them. They're both unders, which makes me

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Speaker 1: want to vomit right now because I just it's horrible

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Speaker 1: to be rooting for people not to score. So I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go with the spread bet, and my guess is

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Speaker 1: going to be a little surprising because I don't this

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Speaker 1: doesn't strike me as a line or a game necessarily

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Speaker 1: that anybody wants to target. But I'm going to take

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Speaker 1: the Steelers getting three and a half against the So

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Speaker 1: when you give me Mike Tomlin generally speaking as an underdog,

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Speaker 1: I am automatically intrigued, right like I'm automatically okay, all right,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna get the guys up for this. When you

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Speaker 1: give me him as a road underdog, then I'm really

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Speaker 1: interested in it because I think that's sort of the

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Speaker 1: quote unquote Mike Toblin spot. Now, the obvious stuff here

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Speaker 1: is that the Browns have a ton of question marks

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Speaker 1: going on right now. We don't know who's going to

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Speaker 1: play quarterback in my Bigger Mayfield might be case Keenum.

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Speaker 1: We don't know if Odell Beckham Junior is going to

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Speaker 1: be playing in this game. We don't necessarily even know

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Speaker 1: that Jarvis Landry is going to play in this game,

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Speaker 1: although it is trending in that direction. And I know

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Speaker 1: we got excited because you know, the spread was dropping

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Speaker 1: with all the injuries, and they come out and they

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Speaker 1: beat the Broncos. But that's a bad Broncos team who's

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Speaker 1: missing Von Miller for most of the game and whose

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Speaker 1: linebacker group is terrible that you beat by three points.

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Speaker 1: So this, to me strikes me as just a bad

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Speaker 1: matchup for the Pittsburgh offense, no matter what. For the

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry for the Browns offense, no matter what. Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: is ninth in defensive DVOA. They're good against both the

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Speaker 1: run and the pass, and they're one of the tops

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Speaker 1: in the league at pressure rate and especially getting pressure

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Speaker 1: despite not blitzing a ton. And I really think that

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Speaker 1: that is the key here when you want to slow

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Speaker 1: down either Baker Mayfield is not great under pressure or

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Speaker 1: case Schemham, who historically has not been very good under pressure.

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Speaker 1: So I think defensively here, I really think that they're

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Speaker 1: going to be able to stack the box against Nick Chubb,

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Speaker 1: who should return here, and still be able to get

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Speaker 1: pressure on Baker Mayfield, So I don't expect much to

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Speaker 1: go right for Cleveland offensively on the other side the ball,

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Steelers are coming off the buy, their

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Speaker 1: offensive lines getting a little better. Now they're gelling, the

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Speaker 1: scheme changed a little bit, Naji Harris coming into his own.

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Speaker 1: I know Cleveland's good against the run, but again Najie

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Speaker 1: Harris has been heavily involved. Ben Roethlisberger looks a little better,

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Speaker 1: looks a little healthier. Chase Claypole was getting healthier as well.

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Speaker 1: Browns or midle of the pack defensively in Dvoa. But

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Speaker 1: they're twenty thirty against the pass. So I do think

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Speaker 1: that the Steelers are going to be able to go here.

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Speaker 1: I think the Steelers actually win this game out right.

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Speaker 1: But if you're giving me the hook in particular over

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Speaker 1: three and a half, that's what I'm going to take.

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Speaker 1: So I told you before we started recording, Ryan that

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Speaker 1: you should give your honest assess of any pick I make,

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Speaker 1: and if you want to fade it, you can fade.

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Speaker 1: If you want to follow it, follow it. What's your

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Speaker 1: assessment of this one?

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Speaker 3: I think the last piece of advice was really sharp.

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Speaker 3: If take the money line, so if you really like

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh here, especially when we're you know, looking at these

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Speaker 3: these dogs under six, under seven. We've seen an outrageous

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Speaker 3: clip this year where those teams are actually just winning

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Speaker 3: out right. So like you're gonna get a like plus

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Speaker 3: one sixty here or something like that, Like just take that,

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Speaker 3: and you know, it's very rare that you're gonna have

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Speaker 3: this fall within that three window and not have Pittsburgh

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Speaker 3: win outright as well. This is a toss up to me,

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Speaker 3: Like I this has happened two years in a row

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Speaker 3: now where Pittsburgh is on like the wrong side of

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Speaker 3: the rest advantage of a bye. They're coming off a bye,

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Speaker 3: but like the Browns have the mini by because.

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Speaker 2: Of the Saturday night game.

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Speaker 1: Yes, it is very.

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Speaker 3: Telling that the line is still on the board despite

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Speaker 3: not knowing who's on the quarterback. That kind of speaks

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Speaker 3: to like, it's not necessarily a massive downgrade from from

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Speaker 3: Baker to case Keenum. Yeah, I mean, I think he

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Speaker 3: made some good points. It's gonna be tough slutting. I

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Speaker 3: think for now, I think you know, this is again

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Speaker 3: a low total, So I would lean under, would probably

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Speaker 3: be my most convicted lean in this scheme. But even

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Speaker 3: that I hold very very loosely.

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Speaker 1: So you've selling many unders, man, too many unders, and

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Speaker 1: I can't go after it again. Yeah, so it might

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Speaker 1: be something where I mean, maybe it's an in game

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Speaker 1: a same game parla there where you tease their same

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Speaker 1: game teaser where you tease up the Steelers to tease

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Speaker 1: up the total and go under. Yeah, you're dead on

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Speaker 1: it's plus one sixty on the money line. I do

246
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Speaker 1: think that it's it's a point. I don't make that enough,

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Speaker 1: by the way, So I'm glad that you're kind of

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Speaker 1: harping on it, which is if you are taking, you know,

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Speaker 1: a dog here within like six points whatever it is,

250
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Speaker 1: but a dog that's not outrageous, always sprinkle on the

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Speaker 1: money line regardless of it, because you're right, they have

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Speaker 1: been hitting it at a clip. But also it's it's

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Speaker 1: close enough there where there's almost certainly value. All right,

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Speaker 1: that's my number one. Go ahead with your number two.

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Speaker 1: Pick what do you got?

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Speaker 2: I like it.

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Speaker 3: This is a square I get a couple of square

258
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Speaker 3: sides for the listeners today. I feel like they're gonna

259
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Speaker 3: be public lines, but I feel like there's a reason

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Speaker 3: that they're to be public lines, and maybe they get steamed.

261
00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:02,959
Speaker 3: Now you can get a little bit of the best

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Speaker 3: of the number, they might get a little bit more

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Speaker 3: expensive as the weekend approaches. Give me Tampa Bay minus five.

264
00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,280
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if what the consensus lying there is

265
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Speaker 3: at betting pros currently.

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Speaker 2: Five and a half.

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Speaker 1: Between five, five and a half, it bounce it back.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so anywhere under six.

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Speaker 3: We're also dealing with some new key, you know, key

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Speaker 3: numbers in this new NFL two where six is becoming

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00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:23,079
Speaker 3: as common as seven.

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Speaker 2: So that's interesting.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel like there's a little bit of dan

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure if you're a curb your enthusiasm fan,

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Speaker 3: there's a little bit of like spite store stuff going

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Speaker 3: on here with Tampa Bay. You know Larry built, you know,

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Speaker 3: and ran a coffee shop out of spite with Mocha Joe.

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Speaker 3: I think that there's a little bit of that vibe

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Speaker 3: going on with Tampa Bay this year. It happened last

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Speaker 3: week too, So it was the Thursday night game against Philly,

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Speaker 3: and you know.

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Speaker 2: Everyone's still leaving. The game's barely over right.

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Speaker 3: That's the everyone's still sweating, and Levante David sits down

284
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Speaker 3: at the desk with the NFL Network guys, and it

285
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Speaker 3: is talking about how stoked the Boys are to get

286
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Speaker 3: to Chicago because they were in barrass last year and

287
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Speaker 3: it was like Tom Brady went down as a game

288
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Speaker 3: and they wanted to make a statement against the Bears.

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Speaker 3: Last week. I loved them last week. I got a

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Speaker 3: minus ten. You could not have said that number too

291
00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,959
Speaker 3: high for me. And I think that this is another

292
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Speaker 3: team where like these two teams played three times last year,

293
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Speaker 3: they meant the playoffs as well as obviously the two

294
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Speaker 3: divisional matchups, and the Saints stuck it to him once.

295
00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:27,280
Speaker 3: They beat him twice, obviously the season opener, but like

296
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:31,200
Speaker 3: that game in Tampa, like they rolled them, And I

297
00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:33,800
Speaker 3: think that this is something that like you know, Brady

298
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Speaker 3: looks for these little edges and can galvanize the locker room.

299
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Speaker 3: And I think that they want to kind of remind

300
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Speaker 3: the Saints that we don't want you in the playoffs.

301
00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:45,560
Speaker 3: This is our division, and they go out here and

302
00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:48,439
Speaker 3: make a statement and take care of business. This becomes

303
00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:52,040
Speaker 3: really their division here, you know, cruising the rest of

304
00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:53,880
Speaker 3: the way, even though we're only in week nine or

305
00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:56,400
Speaker 3: week eight at this point. So like I think Tampa

306
00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:58,760
Speaker 3: makes a statement anything under six. I love laying the

307
00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:00,520
Speaker 3: points here. I don't know what to make of the Saints,

308
00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:02,720
Speaker 3: so I don't think they're very good. I think the

309
00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,320
Speaker 3: defense is good, but like, offensively, they're twenty ninth in

310
00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:08,400
Speaker 3: yards per drive. I think they are thirtieth in points

311
00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:11,520
Speaker 3: per drive. No, but they're thirtieth in yards per drive.

312
00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:14,680
Speaker 3: But they're first in points per red zone appearance and

313
00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,520
Speaker 3: they're second in touchdowns per red zone appearance. That is

314
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Speaker 3: massively unsustainable. Like their offense is not good. Come off

315
00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:24,199
Speaker 3: the by go to Seattle and hang thirteen. That's not

316
00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:26,920
Speaker 3: good enough against Tampa Bay. I know that there was

317
00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:29,439
Speaker 3: weather conditions, but like, I think the offense is not good,

318
00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:31,320
Speaker 3: and I think that they're actually worse than what we've

319
00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,160
Speaker 3: seen so far. So give me the Bucks minus five.

320
00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:36,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the Saint Tomas is pretty terrible actually

321
00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:39,880
Speaker 1: when you look under the hood, and I don't hate it,

322
00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:41,920
Speaker 1: but I am wondering though about it. This is interesting.

323
00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:45,560
Speaker 1: So Brady is a unique animal, but you don't think

324
00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,840
Speaker 1: that the playoff win sort of avengers that you think

325
00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,280
Speaker 1: in his mind and in the Bucks mind, they're still like, no,

326
00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,559
Speaker 1: not good enough, not good enough. After okay, because that

327
00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:56,200
Speaker 1: was what did they win thirty eight.

328
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Speaker 2: Y they handled pretty well.

329
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Speaker 3: Yeah, that game even was was a late like that

330
00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:03,319
Speaker 3: was actually in there was a late fumble in the

331
00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,719
Speaker 3: third quarter. I think it was Jared Cook fumble in

332
00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,079
Speaker 3: like in the red zone. You know, they score there,

333
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,120
Speaker 3: they go up ten. That's a totally different game in

334
00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:11,680
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter, and you know, we don't know what

335
00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:14,280
Speaker 3: happens with the Bucks moving forward, right, so like that

336
00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,520
Speaker 3: changes everything. So I think they'd love to absolutely curb

337
00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,840
Speaker 3: stomp them here in a public way. The only thing

338
00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:22,920
Speaker 3: that makes me a little nervous I Will Winson the

339
00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,720
Speaker 3: CBS on he highlighted that this is going to be

340
00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:30,480
Speaker 3: Halloween in New Orleans, and that's you know, again if

341
00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:32,600
Speaker 3: going to get into some narratives like that would scare

342
00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:34,520
Speaker 3: me a little bit. But again, I think that there's

343
00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:36,520
Speaker 3: not enough unless those people are all going on the

344
00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:37,440
Speaker 3: field to play defense.

345
00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:39,200
Speaker 2: I still like the Bucks.

346
00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:41,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I hadn't even thought about that, but it makes

347
00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,520
Speaker 1: me feel a little better about my second pick, which

348
00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:46,840
Speaker 1: is in the same game, which again my guess is

349
00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:48,320
Speaker 1: you might be on the other side of this one

350
00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:50,720
Speaker 1: if you were forced to take a side which you

351
00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:52,920
Speaker 1: are not. Of course, that's actually going to be the

352
00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:55,600
Speaker 1: under in this same game, which is right now at fifty.

353
00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:57,240
Speaker 1: It's bouncing back and forth. It was fifteen and a

354
00:14:57,240 --> 00:14:59,560
Speaker 1: half at our sponsor bet MGM, so fifteen and a

355
00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:01,640
Speaker 1: half I like it better. But obviously, you know, if

356
00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:03,920
Speaker 1: it's under fifty one whatever, does make that much of

357
00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:07,680
Speaker 1: a difference. But look, speaking of the Saints, and again

358
00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:10,800
Speaker 1: I think we know exactly what their philosophy is right now,

359
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:12,640
Speaker 1: right we are going to lean on our defense, which

360
00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,200
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, is very good. I like it as

361
00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:17,520
Speaker 1: well a lot. They're going to play slow, They're going

362
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,640
Speaker 1: to play conservatively. They don't want to let Jamis do

363
00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,000
Speaker 1: them in right by going for it and no risk

364
00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,520
Speaker 1: at no biscuit, not anymore or not here anymore. They

365
00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:28,080
Speaker 1: are twenty eighth in neutral situation pace of play. They

366
00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:30,560
Speaker 1: run the ball fifty three percent of the time. That

367
00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,880
Speaker 1: is by far the most in the NFL this year.

368
00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,000
Speaker 1: Now they add mark ingram. I mean, not that it

369
00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:38,440
Speaker 1: really matters, but that probably just says, hey, by the way,

370
00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,240
Speaker 1: we want to even run the ball even more if

371
00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:43,480
Speaker 1: we can. And of course you've got the Bucks defense

372
00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,520
Speaker 1: which is great against the runs. So maybe not quite

373
00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,200
Speaker 1: as much against pass catching running backs, but still very good.

374
00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:50,880
Speaker 1: But the bottom line is there's going to be a

375
00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:53,600
Speaker 1: lot of running in this game, at least from the

376
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:55,680
Speaker 1: Saints side. They want to probably they don't want to

377
00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:57,880
Speaker 1: get into a shootout, of course, because of Brady. They

378
00:15:57,880 --> 00:15:59,920
Speaker 1: want to bleed the clock as much as possible, relying

379
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 1: on that defense, which is really good third overall in

380
00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,640
Speaker 1: defensive DVOA. And now with the Bucks, Yeah, I mean,

381
00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:08,680
Speaker 1: Brady is great and has a chip on the shoulder overall,

382
00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:10,560
Speaker 1: I will I'll take your word for it even here

383
00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:12,920
Speaker 1: that he still is mad about that even though he

384
00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,400
Speaker 1: knocked them out of the playoffs, which is definitely possible. Uh,

385
00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,320
Speaker 1: they're just not you know, they're not gonna have Antonio

386
00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:20,360
Speaker 1: Brown here. I assume given that he was spotted on

387
00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:22,760
Speaker 1: with a crutch and given Bruce Arian statements, they probably

388
00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,960
Speaker 1: will get Gronk back. But you know, Marshall Latimore has

389
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:28,000
Speaker 1: a history of just taking Mike Evans for the most part,

390
00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,800
Speaker 1: just right out of these games. And the Saints don't

391
00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:33,480
Speaker 1: have a ton of sacks, but they get enough pressure

392
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,240
Speaker 1: twenty you know, more than twenty six percent pressure rate.

393
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,520
Speaker 1: That's six best in the League. So again these monstrous totals. Man,

394
00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 1: like we we just like fifty points right now is

395
00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:43,720
Speaker 1: like nothing, right, we just think about it's like, oh

396
00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:45,840
Speaker 1: it's fifty points. It doesn't jar you anymore. You're you

397
00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,520
Speaker 1: got totals in fifty seven, right or you know, fifty

398
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,800
Speaker 1: six and a half. But that's a big that's a

399
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 1: big total in a divisional game where I think that

400
00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:56,640
Speaker 1: both have good defenses, the clock is gonna be running

401
00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,480
Speaker 1: a lot. So I do think the Bucks win. I

402
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,160
Speaker 1: do think the Bucks cover this game. But I do

403
00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:04,520
Speaker 1: not see a ton of scoring here from the Saints.

404
00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,080
Speaker 1: I don't see a massive output from the Bucks either.

405
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:09,000
Speaker 1: I think the Bucks win. I think the Bucks cover,

406
00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,119
Speaker 1: but I will take the under here on fifty or

407
00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:12,439
Speaker 1: fifty and a half where you can get it.

408
00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that play too, Dan, I think that

409
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:16,960
Speaker 2: there are a lot of outs there.

410
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:19,960
Speaker 3: Like you highlighted, we know that the Mike Evans thing

411
00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,959
Speaker 3: is real, like those two dudes will battle. He has

412
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,359
Speaker 3: not had some great games and even like you mentioned,

413
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:27,160
Speaker 3: like Kamara that we know they want to run the ball.

414
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:29,040
Speaker 2: It's smart to throw him the ball.

415
00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,880
Speaker 3: But in that second matchup last year, they held him

416
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 3: to six catches I think five catches for nine yards,

417
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,040
Speaker 3: So like, yep, they're prepared for it. They're getting a

418
00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:39,320
Speaker 3: little bit healthier on defense, not necessarily in the secondary

419
00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:41,600
Speaker 3: per se, but at the linebacker position, some guys up front.

420
00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,240
Speaker 3: So yeah, you can sell me on that under here

421
00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:46,359
Speaker 3: in a big, big way, just shortened the Saints.

422
00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,440
Speaker 1: Really, yes, correct, it's a lot on the Saints, for sure.

423
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:51,439
Speaker 1: I do not want to be watching this game and

424
00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:53,840
Speaker 1: have an under and a Tom Brady like angry game,

425
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:55,960
Speaker 1: which now you have convinced me is probably gonna happen.

426
00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,360
Speaker 3: But that's every way I'm going to go back to it, Dan,

427
00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:00,320
Speaker 3: So if you can, you're convicted on you like the

428
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,600
Speaker 3: bucks as well because it's spread and you like the

429
00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,199
Speaker 3: under in the game. It's this really comes down to

430
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,760
Speaker 3: shoring the Saints team total. So like this is a

431
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,240
Speaker 3: you don't have to be in bed with Tom Brady

432
00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,600
Speaker 3: doing anything, Okay, you just take a Saints team total

433
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:14,760
Speaker 3: under and then tom Brady can go off and you're

434
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:15,480
Speaker 3: still safe.

435
00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 1: Perfect. I love it. I will do it. What's your

436
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:18,879
Speaker 1: third bet? Go ahead?

437
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:20,880
Speaker 2: Third bet? Another square one.

438
00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,639
Speaker 3: The most public team I think in the entire league

439
00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:27,400
Speaker 3: is the Dallas Cowboys. They are obviously rolling right now

440
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 3: and they have not not covered at any point so

441
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 3: far this year, and I like them. I think anywhere

442
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,120
Speaker 3: below three have seen two two and a half's out there.

443
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:37,720
Speaker 3: There's I think even a one and a half.

444
00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 1: There's a one and a half the consensus actually one

445
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 1: a half and my book again, I'm in New Hampshire

446
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 1: the DraftKings. It's one and a half right now. It's

447
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:44,560
Speaker 1: been dropping.

448
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:46,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I absolutely love that.

449
00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,440
Speaker 3: I think there is a I don't want to simplify

450
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:50,159
Speaker 3: the handicap here, but I think that there is just

451
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:54,000
Speaker 3: a massive trenches battle here that goes one way.

452
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:54,600
Speaker 2: Really.

453
00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,639
Speaker 3: Outside of the Tampa game in Week one, Dallas is

454
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 3: lean pretty run heavy this year right that was very

455
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,199
Speaker 3: game centric where they came out and they just chuck the

456
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,760
Speaker 3: ball over the field. They've been leaning on the dynamic

457
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:07,560
Speaker 3: offensive line. It's finally healthy and is running really well.

458
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:12,159
Speaker 3: They're first an offensive line adjusted lineyards per Football Outsiders.

459
00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:17,439
Speaker 3: Defensively Minnesota thirty seconds and adjusted lineyards. Sometimes it's just

460
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:19,159
Speaker 3: that simple. I think they're going to be able to

461
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 3: run at will really put Minnesota in a spot where

462
00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:26,800
Speaker 3: they have to play catch up a little bit Minnesota

463
00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 3: can do that. But I also think that there's going

464
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 3: to be enough here in the passing game on Dallas

465
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:32,800
Speaker 3: a's side where when they decide to turn it on,

466
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:34,919
Speaker 3: they're going to be fine. There's some injuries in the

467
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 3: secondary for Minnesota that they think are going to be

468
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,119
Speaker 3: hard for them to overcome. And again I think that

469
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,159
Speaker 3: they have their way here. I think this is a

470
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 3: nice live bet on the over if that happens. If

471
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,000
Speaker 3: Dallas gets up big and we force you know, Mike

472
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:48,960
Speaker 3: Zimmer to take the car out of the garage a

473
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 3: little bit and start to throw the ball, they can

474
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,159
Speaker 3: do that with success. But I think they're going to

475
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 3: have a really hard time slowing down Dallas.

476
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 1: Okay, so I have two questions really here for it.

477
00:19:58,080 --> 00:19:59,919
Speaker 1: Number One, when I saw this we do you know

478
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 1: look ahead line sort of on Monday and opening reaction

479
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,119
Speaker 1: to it, it was two and a half and I

480
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 1: was very much like, I don't understand this line. Why

481
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,600
Speaker 1: why would you not pound Dallas right now? Like this

482
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:12,399
Speaker 1: seems very obvious. I know they're on the road, I

483
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,359
Speaker 1: know it's a primetime game or whatever, but I mean,

484
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 1: this just doesn't seem correct. The guy I did it

485
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 1: with Matt Parraul didn't have that same reaction, so I

486
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,960
Speaker 1: was surprised there. My wonder is if the reason that

487
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 1: was dropping is because of the Dak Prescott health situation,

488
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,719
Speaker 1: because like I think we all just sort of expected

489
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 1: the way he's got the bye week, Like everything says

490
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 1: the calf injury is minimal, but all the word out

491
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,479
Speaker 1: of Cowboys Camp is very much like, oh, things are trending,

492
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 1: things are trending in the right direction. Is there any

493
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 1: concern for you if you're a better and people are

494
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,239
Speaker 1: listening to this on a Thursday when we're recording it,

495
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,119
Speaker 1: do you wait and just see Prescott's health? I mean,

496
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 1: does that concern you at all?

497
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 2: No? But I think you can wait. So I think

498
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:50,680
Speaker 2: two things.

499
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:52,920
Speaker 3: I'm not concerned, but I think waiting is fine because

500
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,359
Speaker 3: if you're you know, we're still under the three and

501
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 3: that's really all that matters in this spot. Like I do,

502
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,880
Speaker 3: I'm not super concerned about a one versus a two

503
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 3: and a half. I'm so rare that it's going to

504
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 3: fall on two or something like that. So yeah, I

505
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 3: think you can absolutely wait. Until you start to see

506
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 3: more practice reports, you start to feel a little bit

507
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 3: more convicted on a Friday afternoon. I think that is

508
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 3: absolutely why it is not at three currently.

509
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, both team's.

510
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:17,320
Speaker 3: Coming off a bye, so that's you know, not even

511
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,400
Speaker 3: a rest advantage for Minnesota at home like that kind

512
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 3: of that stinks. Typically you like to have those spots.

513
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,720
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that's absolutely why. But I'm fine

514
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 3: waiting and I think you're still gonna be able to

515
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:27,879
Speaker 3: get under three.

516
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, because again when it was two and a half,

517
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:31,119
Speaker 1: it was something where I was like, I want to

518
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 1: hit it now because I you know, I don't know,

519
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 1: But then it was dropping and I again I assume

520
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 1: it's just because of big questions on Prescott's health and

521
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 1: again everything that comes out of it of Cowboys campus, Like, yeah,

522
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 1: I expect to play, but you know, I you know,

523
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 1: I don't want to hear expect to play like I

524
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 1: want to be like, I'm totally fine, I'm ready to go.

525
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 1: So maybe that's it. But certainly if Prescott plays, I'm

526
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,439
Speaker 1: absolutely on that side. And I said it when we

527
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,120
Speaker 1: did it on Monday. I think that's the right side.

528
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 1: I'm surprised that the line came out under three, just

529
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 1: with how much of a public side the Cowboys always are,

530
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,359
Speaker 1: but I'm with you for sure. I'm going back to

531
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 1: a total, of course, and it's gonna be one that.

532
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 1: On Monday, Matt Again, who he did the podcast with,

533
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: was like, pound the over, pound the over. My initial

534
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 1: reaction was, yeah, all right, I mean, I think the over,

535
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,119
Speaker 1: like you go back historically it probably hits, but I

536
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 1: actually like the under on this game. It's the Titans

537
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 1: and the Colts, which is at fifty one right now.

538
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,119
Speaker 1: We've got the two elite running backs, of course, and

539
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 1: both teams just pound the ball into the ground when

540
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 1: they can John Taylor and Derrick Henry. That means that

541
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 1: the clock is gonna move. Tennessee runs forty eight percent

542
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 1: of the time, that is fourth most in the league.

543
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,199
Speaker 1: Indianapolis runs forty five percent of time. That is the

544
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 1: eighth most in the league. So Indianapolis, though has an

545
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 1: elite run defense. They are number one in defensive DVA

546
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 1: against the run, and they are the slowest team in

547
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,440
Speaker 1: the NFL in terms of neutral situation pace of play

548
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 1: they ranked last. Tennessee ranks twenty third. These are both

549
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 1: two teams that are in no hurry to get things going,

550
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,120
Speaker 1: that are more than willing to milk the clock rely

551
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 1: in the run game, and again, Indianapolis has a great

552
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 1: run defense, so I think that's going to cause Tennessee

553
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 1: to not necessarily be able to staying these drives or

554
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 1: anything like that where they're gonna, you know, result in touchdowns.

555
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 1: It's a divisional game they've already met. Obviously, it was

556
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,920
Speaker 1: a little different before because Wentz wasn't healthy. The offensive

557
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 1: line is getting a little better here for the Colts.

558
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 1: I just think this strikes me as a more conservative

559
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,439
Speaker 1: sort of grind it out, tough game. You've got the

560
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 1: Colts who need the win, right they this is their

561
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 1: last chance here to get the division. They have bounced

562
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 1: back very nicely from that loss against the Ravens, but

563
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: they need this one because they lost already to the Titans.

564
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: So there's gonna be two unders here For me on

565
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 1: a Sunday, I'm going to be miserable watching the games.

566
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 1: But to me, I don't know. Man. When I first

567
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 1: looked at it, I understood like why the over might

568
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 1: have been the play, And to be fair, I think

569
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 1: the total opened up at forty nine or forty nine

570
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 1: and a half. Now at fifty one, I'm gonna take

571
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 1: the under I.

572
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 2: Had the same reaction.

573
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 3: So when I first saw it, I was like, oh,

574
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 3: that feels like it feels like an overplay.

575
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 1: Yep.

576
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 3: But the more I dug into it, you know, I

577
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 3: didn't click the button already. I waited a little bit

578
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 3: so and then the more I dug into it, and I

579
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 3: think I came the same realization that you did. Is

580
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 3: I just feel that there are a lot of outs

581
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:00,679
Speaker 3: for this to be slow.

582
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 1: Yep.

583
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 3: I think there's a little bit of unsustainable efficiency on

584
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 3: both sides. Offensively, you talked about how there's a you know,

585
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 3: run funnel on the Colt side, knowing that the Titans

586
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 3: want to lean run heavy. Yeah, I'm a little concerned

587
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,160
Speaker 3: against second time on the division. We know historically those

588
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 3: end up being a little bit lower scoring as well,

589
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 3: So there's a lot working in your favor here on

590
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 3: the other.

591
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really I probably would have put the Bucks last,

592
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: like in terms of my favorite sort of picks, but

593
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:30,439
Speaker 1: I wanted to get him in there because you had

594
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 1: just talked about the Bucks. I feel a little more

595
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 1: confident in this one than I even do the Bucks.

596
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 1: So let's recap very quickly. Then let's quickly just run

597
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 1: through the remaining spreads and then we can get you

598
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 1: out of here get back to making all your correct picks.

599
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 1: You are taking the Bucks laying five and a half

600
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,479
Speaker 1: to the Saints, the Cowboys laying one and a half

601
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 1: to the Vikings, and the Rams team total over thirty

602
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 1: and a half. And I love all the team total

603
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 1: stuff that you gave. It's really great information. I'm taking

604
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 1: the Steelers getting three and a half against the Browns.

605
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 1: I am taking the Bucks and the Saints under fifty

606
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 1: or fifty and a half, especially if can get that,

607
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,199
Speaker 1: and the Titans and the Colts under fifty one. All Right,

608
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna ask you about tonight because by the

609
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 1: time people listening to this, the game has probably already happened.

610
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 1: I don't want to have you on record, all right,

611
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 1: I really want your opinion on the Bengals laying ten

612
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 1: and a half in New Jersey against the Jets.

613
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a hard thing too.

614
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 3: I do you know a free look Ahead lines article

615
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 3: every week at four for four. This this next week

616
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 3: nine is in the hopper, should be out very soon.

617
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 3: This is three and a half and again markets, So

618
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 3: it's really hard to sometimes be like you know this

619
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:34,479
Speaker 3: is we're dying here now. I don't think that the

620
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 3: Mike White Zach Wilson things worth seven points, but yeah,

621
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 3: ten and a half is tough. This is also this

622
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 3: is the third straight road game for the Bengals, right.

623
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 3: Don't see it very often. It only happens a couple

624
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 3: times a year. It happens the Colts already this year.

625
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 3: Those things don't go really well typically, So like, ten

626
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 3: and a half is too much, it's a stay away

627
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 3: from me. That doesn't mean I have any conviction on

628
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,120
Speaker 3: the Jets side, but I can't take I can't lay

629
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 3: the ten and a half on the Bengals.

630
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,919
Speaker 1: I think it's very clear that when you look at

631
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 1: everything and the trends and everything that really goes into

632
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: the fact that the line has moved this much means

633
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,399
Speaker 1: oh God, of course you take the Jets. But I

634
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 1: cannot possibly take the Jets. Like there's no way. I

635
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:13,440
Speaker 1: did get in on the Bengals at nine and a

636
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: half when it first sort of moved, because I was

637
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 1: just like, oh, come on, Mike, I'm a Jets fan.

638
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 1: I'm willing to admit that I was not prepared to

639
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,400
Speaker 1: see Mike White in a game, but I just at

640
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 1: this point, it's just too high. But I understand that,

641
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 1: like the sharp side is, there's so much value on

642
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 1: the Jets. Come on, you gotta take the Jets. Can't

643
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 1: do it, definitely can't do it no matter how high

644
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 1: it gets. I'm just stayed away.

645
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 2: But that's the question, right, what's the number gonna be?

646
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 1: Oh, there's no number. I'm not kidding, like I get it,

647
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: Like you want to like twenty one and playff They're like, well,

648
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: but for the most part, no, I don't want to

649
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 1: do it. I do because I don't have any faith

650
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 1: in what I am going to see from a full

651
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: week of preparing. Is Michael Carter gonna get eighteen targets here?

652
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 1: You know, out of the running back position. You know

653
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 1: who the heck knows at this point. So I'm staying

654
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 1: far away. I'm interested actually in this one. I backed

655
00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 1: the Eagles so many times this year, and sometimes it's

656
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 1: been good. I've gotten the nonber like against the Bucks.

657
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 1: I meant, you know, I got the number right and

658
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 1: everything like that. The Lions are at home against the Eagles.

659
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: The Lions are getting three and a half.

660
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 3: This might be the spot that the Lions get off

661
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 3: the Schneid. Yeah, yeah, three and a half is a

662
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 3: nice number.

663
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 2: Two.

664
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 3: So again, we're is the reason that this is the

665
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 3: first time the Eagles are favored all year. You know,

666
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 3: Jalen hurts his fun in our fantasy games. Yeah, but

667
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 3: like you know, in the fourth quarter, and like he

668
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:26,439
Speaker 3: does it every single time every time. He'll probably do

669
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 3: it again this week because I don't think we're going

670
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 3: to have a game script where, like, you know, he's

671
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 3: not going to be needed. This is definitely Lions or

672
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 3: nothing for me. I don't have a ton of conviction

673
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 3: in it. But a lot of smart people that I

674
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 3: talk to and do this with also feel that the

675
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 3: Lions are the play. So maybe, uh, you know, later

676
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,360
Speaker 3: today or no later than tomorrow afternoon. I probably take

677
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 3: it because I think that three, I think that hook

678
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 3: might go away.

679
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, if we did four bets on the show, then

680
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 1: the fourth bet would have been the Lions. Definitely on

681
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 1: this one. I think that look, they fight man like,

682
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 1: but you know, they fight no matter what, and the

683
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 1: Eagles are not good enough to put this game away

684
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 1: in my opinion, like they just are not offensively good

685
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 1: enough to put it away. I think the lines hang

686
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:07,719
Speaker 1: around here this will be something where I will sprinkle

687
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:09,679
Speaker 1: on the money line as well, but I will definitely

688
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 1: take them getting three and a half. My personal plays

689
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 1: not the official here. The Bills are laying fourteen at

690
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 1: home against the Miami Dolphins.

691
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 3: And so this is one of the only times, well

692
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 3: I don't typically do this.

693
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,479
Speaker 2: I bet this in the preseason. I bet this.

694
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 1: Wow.

695
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 3: In Week five, I got the Bills minus seven. Dan,

696
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 3: there's a massive, massive rest advantage here. This is so

697
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 3: the Dolphins elected to not have the post London by right. Bizarre,

698
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 3: but I but whatever, Like they thought they were gonna

699
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 3: be contenders, they wanted a late season by They come

700
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 3: home and play the Falcons off of bye.

701
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 2: Not great.

702
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 4: Now they go to Buffalo in the division, Buffalo fresh

703
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 4: off of bye, who is absolutely destroy them the last

704
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 4: two like ninety one to twenty six in the last

705
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 4: two meetings.

706
00:28:57,920 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 2: Destroyed.

707
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 3: And I think that there is just what do the

708
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 3: Dolphins do well? They do nothing well. And I think

709
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 3: that the Bills don't like how they went into the buy.

710
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 2: You know that there was a game that they should

711
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 2: have won in Tennessee.

712
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 3: Josh Allen was talking about how maybe we just get

713
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:15,719
Speaker 3: it right and we do what we did last year

714
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 3: after the buye, which is not lose again until they

715
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 3: get to the playoffs. So I think that they are

716
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 3: on cruise control here. I mean, fourteen is hard.

717
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 2: I can't take it.

718
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 3: I got a couple of sevens, but like, I'm not

719
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 3: touching Miami here whatsoever.

720
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's awesome that you have some sevens. But all right, So,

721
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 1: like fandal is still thirteen and a half. Do you

722
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: care that it's below two touchdowns or yea? Yeah, okay, hey,

723
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 1: when you're there, that's fine. How about the forty nine

724
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 1: ers visiting the Bears. The forty nine ers are now

725
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 1: laying four points in our contents is line?

726
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 2: Yeah? This is gross. The Chicago thing is weird.

727
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 3: You know. I want to be bullish on Justin Field's

728
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 3: long term, but there's not a lot to be autimistic about. Again,

729
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 3: it is a JV offensive line. It's a stay away

730
00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 3: from me. Have no interest in this game whatsoever. I

731
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 3: would lean the Niners if you had to.

732
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I think the Niners are probably the

733
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 1: right side. I doubt I will have much action on

734
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 1: this game. It's just I don't see how you can

735
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 1: look at Justin fields right now and feel comfortable backing

736
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: him whatsoever. He again, like you, no long term sort

737
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: of proclamations on what the kid's future is going to

738
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 1: be like, without question, but as of this moment, as

739
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 1: of right now, especially with that offensive line, he's just

740
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 1: overmatched and he's not making decisions quickly enough and he's

741
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 1: just getting overwhelmed. So I would go with the Niners

742
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 1: if I had to by it again, like you, it's

743
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 1: a game I'm going to stay away from, as is

744
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 1: the next one, which is the Falcons at home against

745
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 1: the Panthers, which the Falcons laying three.

746
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, another one that's kind of gross. This one moved

747
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 3: in a big way in the pre market. It was

748
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 3: the other way. It was minus two and a half

749
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 3: on the Panther side, So with five points of movements

750
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 3: doesn't make any sense to me. There's kind of this

751
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 3: narrative this week that like the Falcons are figuring it out.

752
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 3: They barely won in London against the Jets. They blew

753
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 3: a thirteen fourth quarter lead against Miami and needed a

754
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 3: lot field wal to hold on. Like, no, you know,

755
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 3: and I don't know what to make of the Sam

756
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 3: Donald thing. So, like the talent is there turns out

757
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 3: maybe Christian McCaffrey matters.

758
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 1: J C.

759
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 3: Horn might matter even though we lose them for a

760
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 3: handful of games. So stay away from me. But you're gonna,

761
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 3: you know, give me some points in Carolina. I would

762
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 3: lean that way if we maybe get a three, but

763
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 3: no conviction in the Falcons whatsoever.

764
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean they should get a little healthier here,

765
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 1: right or you know, Gilmour should probably play in this game.

766
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 1: I assume, you know, for his first game. But regardless, Yeah,

767
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 1: there's clearly value on the Panthers, right Like, there's no

768
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 1: way that the Falcon should be favored here by three points.

769
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: But I can't do it, like I can't with Sam

770
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 1: Donald with the way he is playing right now. It's

771
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 1: just a total stay away from me. We talked about

772
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 1: the total in this game, but I'm interested in your

773
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 1: feelings on the side. The Colts right now are laying

774
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: one and a half to the Titans in Indianapolis.

775
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I lean the Titans. I think my preferred way.

776
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 3: I don't know I've been shorting the Colts. I just

777
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 3: don't believe in them. I want to continue to probably

778
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 3: do that. I still don't think the Titans are very

779
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 3: good either that secondary is brodhere. I don't know how

780
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,479
Speaker 3: they did that last week, Like we're looking at like

781
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 3: Greg Moulton and his name is now officially Jack Rabbits,

782
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 3: Like that is unbelievable to me, Like why is it

783
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 3: an underreported story? He changed genorous to jack Rabbit and

784
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 3: we're all just like that's fine, that's yeah, people.

785
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 5: Do that all the time, like it's fine, okay, like

786
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 5: Jack Rabbit. So like Jack Rabbit is gonna hold it down. Yeah,

787
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 5: I don't believe in either of these teams. It would

788
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 5: be Titans.

789
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 3: But again, I feel like there's a little bit of

790
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 3: overreaction to how they played of late. But I don't

791
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 3: think we need to like underrate how well they played

792
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 3: against Buffalo in Kansas City.

793
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I I think if I'm forced to go

794
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 1: on one side and this is a stay away for me,

795
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 1: I think I might lean the Colts just because I think,

796
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 1: you know, at home, at some point, the Titans have

797
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 1: to be due for a letdown at this right that

798
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 1: huge win against Buffalo, the huge win against Kansas City,

799
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna put that more on Kansas City as opposed

800
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 1: to the strength of the Titans. Second, there were here. Sure,

801
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 1: I think maybe everybody just takes away the explosive play

802
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: and that's it. But I think i'd probably lean the Colts.

803
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 1: But it's a total stay away from me. So I'm

804
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 1: glad at least you don't have conviction either with it.

805
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: We know you're going with the team total. Did you

806
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: have a side with the Texans? Getting fourteen and a

807
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: half from the Rams just.

808
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 3: Goes back to our Jets conversation, Dan, what what's the

809
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 3: number on the Texans?

810
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: And there is no there is no number.

811
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 3: On the Texans, buddy, Like this is Rams all day.

812
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 3: You know, I like to have under fourteen and a half.

813
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 3: But like, there's just there's absolutely nothing here that you know.

814
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 3: If you have a Texans ticket, just do do not

815
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 3: watch the game. Yeah, Pumpkin Patch, you know, take your

816
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 3: kids trigger treating, Like, do not watch that one.

817
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 1: I mean to Rod Taylor might be back. Yeah, hell

818
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 1: but I've got nothing. Yeah, every book is fourteen and

819
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 1: a half by the way, from what I love, it's

820
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 1: total content. So there is no there's no value anywhere

821
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 1: you can go. We talked all right about the Steelers

822
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 1: and the Browns. How about the Seahawks laying three and

823
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: a half to the Jaguars in Seattle.

824
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 3: I want to back the Jaguars, especially if you can get.

825
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 2: A three and a half.

826
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's where it is everywhere.

827
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, so like that's a little interesting to me. I

828
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 3: know it was bouncing back and forth earlier today and there's.

829
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 1: Oh yeah the Jews threes. Yeah, there are a couple

830
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 1: of threes out there, but the overwhelming majority of books

831
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 1: right now are at three and a half.

832
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean again, coming off the by, it's a

833
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,879
Speaker 3: long travel, But again I don't I feel like Pete

834
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 3: Carroll wants to It's like the low level Saints perfect

835
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:24,319
Speaker 3: match of last week, Like he wants to get the

836
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:26,320
Speaker 3: game over as quick as possible.

837
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 2: We want to.

838
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 3: Hide Gino, but they don't have the defense that the

839
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 3: Saints have where they can try to hide Jamis. So

840
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 3: again I'm having to buy into hopefully that rookie after

841
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 3: the bye maybe start to take a leap forward. They

842
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,240
Speaker 3: have a really strong run game. The offensive lines played

843
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 3: really well. If they could stay in a neutral gamescript

844
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 3: and run for a little bit longer than they've been

845
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:47,879
Speaker 3: able to, I think that they can keep it close.

846
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 2: So if I'm gonna get a hook I kind of

847
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 2: like the Jags.

848
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 1: If there was a side that I had to take,

849
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 1: it would be the Jags with the hook. I just

850
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 1: I can't, you know, backing Urban Meyer is something where

851
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 1: it's just like I don't I mean. And again, I

852
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 1: had a couple of buddies who were like, do it

853
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 1: in London against Miami and I was like, there's no

854
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: way I will do it. But turned out to be

855
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 1: the right side. Going into Seattle for the rookie quarterbacks

856
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 1: still makes me a little nervous. But if there were

857
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 1: a side, that is where I would go. What about

858
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 1: the Chargers laying five to the Pats here in Los Angeles.

859
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:16,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is one of my favorite games of the league.

860
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 3: It's gonna be really interesting. We know that like Brandon

861
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 3: Staley refuses to play seven even six guys in the box.

862
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 3: They run in it by far the lowest rate in the league.

863
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 3: They invite you to run, They want to force you

864
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 3: in the third downs and hopefully you can make some

865
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 3: mistakes there. New England very very willing to take whatever

866
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 3: you're going to give them. They are fine with grinding

867
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 3: it down, taking short intermediate passes and handing the ball

868
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 3: to Damien Harris over and over again. So I think

869
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 3: Harris has a nice day. I think Tunter Henry in

870
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 3: a revenge spot has a nice day. Yeah, it's been

871
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:50,399
Speaker 3: really bad at defending the tight end position all year.

872
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 3: I think we've seen some public money come in on

873
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 3: New England here because it started to move from six

874
00:35:56,840 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 3: down to even four and a half. Today we're getting

875
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 3: kind of away from it. I would like to have

876
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 3: in New England at six, but I would lean that way.

877
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. Yeah, there are some four and a

878
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 1: halfs out there. You're right at FanDuel in particular, I'm

879
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 1: noticing is there. But yeah, I lean the Pats. I'm

880
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: probably not gonna bet it right now, like I would

881
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 1: like it to go back up, but if you forced

882
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: me to pick a side right now, I would probably

883
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 1: take the Patriots at plus five. I think they match

884
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 1: up well here, and I agree we probably could talk

885
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:25,439
Speaker 1: about some player props later in the week here about

886
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 1: what we're going to see in this game. So I

887
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 1: am with you there. We already talked about the Bucks

888
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 1: in the Saints. How about Washington visiting Denver with the

889
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 1: Broncos laying three.

890
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, you came into the year thinking that these are

891
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 3: two of the best defensive teams in the league, and

892
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,760
Speaker 3: now they're like, you know, bottom third and basically epa

893
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 3: DVA any important metric that you would want. Lots of

894
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 3: injuries on both sides. I think that Washington is poor

895
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 3: the defensive play. They still get a decent amount of pressure,

896
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:54,399
Speaker 3: and Denver's allowed a craptunder pressure on Teddy, who did

897
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 3: not look very healthy. Now I know we've had ten

898
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,919
Speaker 3: days to recover. We're gonna get Jerry Judy backs. There's

899
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 3: some things working in their faith. But like, I don't know,

900
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 3: I think Washington's a little live and frisky here.

901
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 2: I would lean that way.

902
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 3: It's not a convicted play for me, But I think

903
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 3: I liked the over here as well. But that's actually

904
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 3: got pushed a little bit. It was like forty two

905
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 3: and a half forty three all day yesterday. Now we're

906
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:16,879
Speaker 3: kind of on the wrong side of a key number

907
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 3: at forty four and a half everywhere. But yeah, I

908
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 3: mean I think Washington's actually live.

909
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is forty four and a half pretty consistently there,

910
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 1: So that makes it a little tougher. And I have

911
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 1: lived early in the season, least on the Broncos unders

912
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 1: for sure. I agree with you, though I major concerns

913
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: about Denver, even with Judy coming back, who I love Bridgewater.

914
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 1: You're right, A doesn't look healthy if you get pressure

915
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:38,640
Speaker 1: on him, which, as you mentioned, as disappointing as the

916
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 1: Washington defense has been, they still get pressure. Bridgewater looks

917
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 1: very nervous in the pocket, like his feet are just

918
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 1: dancing the entire time. He does not want to get

919
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 1: rid of the ball. So I agree with you. I

920
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 1: think Washington can come up here actually steal this game overall.

921
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: So certainly a sprinkle on the money line if you

922
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 1: want to go that way, but getting three, I will

923
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 1: take it. Last game Monday night football spreads are actually

924
00:37:57,600 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 1: all over the place, and this one's fun to look at.

925
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 1: Contentsus lines. I see nines, I see tens. The consensus

926
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 1: right now is nine and a half because that's the

927
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,399
Speaker 1: majority of books, but there are tens chiefs laying let's

928
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 1: say nine and a half here to the Giants.

929
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:11,800
Speaker 2: It's gonna happen eventually, right, They're gonna get it together.

930
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 3: They have to, right, I mean they don't have to,

931
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 3: but they have to.

932
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:17,399
Speaker 2: And the Giants aren't the team that's going to trip

933
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 2: them up.

934
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 3: But I didn't think the Titans are gonna be the

935
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 3: team that trip them up, right, So like we're playing

936
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:25,800
Speaker 3: wackable here, but continue to bet on Patrick Mahomes I

937
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 3: think is the right way to do it. Shorting Daniel

938
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,760
Speaker 3: Jones in primetime on the road I think is probably

939
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 3: a plus D play.

940
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 1: You gotta do it. You gotta do it, man, you

941
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 1: gotta fire on it like this. You're right, this has

942
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:38,880
Speaker 1: to be the spot. This has to be for everything

943
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:40,400
Speaker 1: that we don't even know is healthy for the Giants

944
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:42,839
Speaker 1: right now on offense. Maybe they all are. I don't

945
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 1: really care. I just this has to be after last week.

946
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 1: This has to be the bounced back spot for sure

947
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 1: for Kansas City in Arrowhead on a Monday night, and

948
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 1: oh god, it's gotta be, and especially with it being

949
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 1: under under ten as it is in my book as

950
00:38:56,600 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 1: the consensus line. I will take it. Ryan, you were

951
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: a joy to have today. We don't talk enough. It

952
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 1: was great talking to you. You do fantastic work. As

953
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 1: I've said, remind everybody where they can find it.

954
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 3: Thanks Buddy podcast twice a week, Move the Line. We

955
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:14,240
Speaker 3: have a game by game preview which is available currently

956
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 3: in any of your podcast feeds. We do that on

957
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 3: Wednesday nights on our YouTube page. It comes out in

958
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 3: podcast form on Thursday mornings, and then on Friday evenings

959
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 3: we have a prop drop show where we focus just

960
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 3: on player props that you can actually bet in the moment,

961
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 3: so we're not giving you any stale lines. It is

962
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 3: basically half of it is us giving the picks. The

963
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 3: second half is very interactive. We want to take any

964
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 3: of the bets that you're looking to get into. You

965
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 3: can kind of bounce numbers off of us. We want

966
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 3: to kind of make that very active and it's been

967
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,920
Speaker 3: great so far. We get all the contents over at

968
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 3: four for four. A lot of great stuff coming out

969
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 3: in the betting space in the next calendar year.

970
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 1: He is Ryan Noonan. He is doing great things over there.

971
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 1: Make sure you follow him at ry that's our Why

972
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 1: Noonon over on Twitter. Enjoy your football, everybody. We'll be

973
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 1: back again on Monday, breaking down an early look at

974
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 1: the Week nine NFL lines. H