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Speaker 1: Runch you by Bank of America Mary Lynch with virtual reality,

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Speaker 1: virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in a transforming world

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Speaker 1: VI of a mL dot Com slash VR, Mary Lynch,

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Speaker 1: Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best of economics, finance, investment and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com

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Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg This is a joy.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we can look at the currents that the

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Speaker 1: screen and hold it all in together, but let us

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Speaker 1: get a more holistic view, particularly with Cherry Yelling uh

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Speaker 1: speaking today, and that would be with Bruce Kasman of

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Speaker 1: JP Morgan. Bruce, You've got a great team and you

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Speaker 1: put out a Friday note with Mr Feroli and the others.

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Speaker 1: How do you put the note together? Do you have

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Speaker 1: like a ten am meeting on Friday where you go

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Speaker 1: you do this, you do this, or do you start

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Speaker 1: like on Tuesday to generate that Friday seven pm note. Well,

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Speaker 1: we've got a team of about thirty people around the

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Speaker 1: world who are kind of putting stuff together as the

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Speaker 1: week goes on. We actually get together on Thursday morning

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Speaker 1: and spend a good hour and a half or so

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Speaker 1: kind of hashing out how to think about the pieces

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Speaker 1: fitting into a global view, and then going off and

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Speaker 1: trying to synthesize that you did a Madame Legard note

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Speaker 1: this week she came out with an update and really

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Speaker 1: said world GDP is pretty good, e MS pretty good,

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Speaker 1: China is pretty good, and then she lectured the US,

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Speaker 1: as Madame Legard is known to do. Do you agree

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Speaker 1: with that? Do you need to lecture the US to

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Speaker 1: get it going? No? I don't think I'm certainly going

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Speaker 1: to lecture the United States. I think there's a lot

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Speaker 1: we could be doing to help underlying performance in the US.

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Speaker 1: But the US is doing okay. US, I think, is

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Speaker 1: part of a global economy that's doing pretty well here

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Speaker 1: in terms of the growth numbers. And I think that's

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Speaker 1: going to continue to be the theme for the year,

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Speaker 1: which is that this is a world which is doing well,

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Speaker 1: but it's not being driven centrally by US dynamics and

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Speaker 1: certainly not by US policy stimulus. Bruce, are we going

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Speaker 1: to get a lecture from cheer Yelling today. I don't

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Speaker 1: think we're gonna get election. I think when Yelling comes

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Speaker 1: to Congress for testimony, she's representing the Committee, and I

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Speaker 1: think what she's gonna do is deliver the three messages

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Speaker 1: she delivered the Committee delivered with the last meeting. One

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Speaker 1: is their upbeat on growth, the other is for the

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Speaker 1: time being, they're going to look through the low inflation readings.

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Speaker 1: And third, they're getting close to starting to unwind the

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Speaker 1: balance sheet. Let's stick with that looking through the inflation

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Speaker 1: reading because you also talk about how the inflation dip

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Speaker 1: we've seen is not driven by faltering demand um and

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Speaker 1: and actually it keeps you pretty comfortable with maintaining your

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Speaker 1: inflation forecast. You're not too worried about it. I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: not confident in forecasting inflation. I think that's one of

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Speaker 1: the points. There's a lot of things that i've inflation

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Speaker 1: that are not macroeconomic driven, and I think that's part

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Speaker 1: of what we're seeing. I think it's certainly part of

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Speaker 1: the energy price fall we've been watching. However, I think

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Speaker 1: it is important to realize if demand is solid, and

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Speaker 1: the global demand indicators have been quite strong going into

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Speaker 1: the second quarter, then the most likely outcome is that

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Speaker 1: the inflation news is going to start to firm, and

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Speaker 1: I think in an underlying sense we're pretty comfortable with

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Speaker 1: that without getting too cocky about what the next one

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Speaker 1: or two prints are going to be. Certainly in the

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Speaker 1: United States with is a big focus on it. So

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Speaker 1: by the second half things will start to shape up,

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Speaker 1: we believe. So we think that in an underlying sense,

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Speaker 1: US core inflation is sitting right now close to two,

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Speaker 1: and that's what we think the numbers will gravitate. I

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Speaker 1: think the goods pricing has been depressed in a way

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Speaker 1: that's out of line with the dollar in the imports

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Speaker 1: and pp I uh, and I think there's a couple

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Speaker 1: of other technical things that probably held down inflation that

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Speaker 1: are gonna unwind here. I guess this will come up

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Speaker 1: with your yelling today. But if I and I won't

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Speaker 1: come up this, Mathy, But let's do Matthew, because it's surveillance.

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Speaker 1: If you inflation adjust the Fed Funds target rate, I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's better, it's reflating, but it's still a negative Fed

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Speaker 1: Funds target rate, and I calculate it's about two rate

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Speaker 1: rises more. Does she have headroom here? From a music

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Speaker 1: standpo does she have have room to work with where

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Speaker 1: she can raise rates once or twice more and really

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Speaker 1: not jar the markets. I think she does. But I

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Speaker 1: think at the same time, the FED is moving on

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Speaker 1: a path which is very conditional on the idea that

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Speaker 1: not only is growth solid, not only do you need

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Speaker 1: to normalize policy, but that inflation is normalizing. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's where in the next few months the actual

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Speaker 1: readings on inflation are so important, because I'm certainly thinking

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Speaker 1: the FED is going to go in December, but if

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Speaker 1: we don't get a sign that inflation is moving back

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Speaker 1: on the path, I think they will hold um as

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Speaker 1: they look at the economy into the latter part of

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Speaker 1: the year. Let me give you the email that I

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Speaker 1: get from people all the time, which is a high

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Speaker 1: service sector inflation and outright goods deflation or at least

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Speaker 1: disinflation as well. Should share yelling parts between a dominant

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Speaker 1: service sector inflation that's three plus and goods that is

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Speaker 1: less so UM, I think to some degree, and I

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Speaker 1: think in particular the fact that the goods deflation we've

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Speaker 1: been seeing is largely related to the dollar and international forces,

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Speaker 1: which we can now see fading as an impulse. So

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Speaker 1: from a forward looking point of view, I think that

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Speaker 1: informs your inflation outlook. I would though, note that service

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Speaker 1: sector inflation is higher, but service sector inflation has been

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Speaker 1: a big part of the surprise to the downside that

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Speaker 1: we've had in the last few months. And making sense

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Speaker 1: of that the telecommunication charges, the housing costs moving off

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Speaker 1: and a few other things does become key to the outlook.

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Speaker 1: And now we had to JP Morgan research by going

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Speaker 1: to Scarlet Food the keeper of six cell phone bills. You,

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Speaker 1: if you take an advantage of Scarlett All on the show,

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Speaker 1: all we hear about is wireless disanceleation. I totally have.

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Speaker 1: My My cell phone bill has now gone down to

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Speaker 1: two hundred dollars a month for four different lines. So

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Speaker 1: Mr Tucker, would you like to win in that has

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Speaker 1: not occurred at the household? Well, the one I got

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Speaker 1: from a A r P is a ten dollars a

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Speaker 1: month and that's held pretty Bruce John Johnny has a

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Speaker 1: cell phone in the uh the Michael Douglas movie with

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Speaker 1: Kathleen Turner from a few years ago. But excuse me,

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Speaker 1: the celebrity loadstone Scarlet Food ways, how did you know

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Speaker 1: that scarlet, that's just a special talent. Bruce. Does that

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Speaker 1: matter all this one off inflation stuff? Don't you sum

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Speaker 1: it all together? Um? Well, I think when you start

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Speaker 1: adding up one offs, they start to become the the

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Speaker 1: overall picture. That said, I do think in telecommunication charges

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Speaker 1: there was a there was a methodological change that has

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Speaker 1: combined the increased competitiveness in the sector and passing through

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Speaker 1: what is the one off and what is the trend

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Speaker 1: becomes the issue, and that that is really the call

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Speaker 1: for the FED in terms of rates. I'd emphasize I

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Speaker 1: don't think the inflation outlook is going to drive the

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Speaker 1: balance sheet movement. The balance sheet movement I think comes

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Speaker 1: as long as the FED is comfortable on growth, and

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Speaker 1: I think is every reason for them to feel that way.

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Speaker 1: All right, speaking of the inflation outlook, we have some

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Speaker 1: red heads red headlines on the Bloomberg here from OPEC.

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Speaker 1: It's just released it's eighteen outlook and opexi's demand for

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Speaker 1: its crude oil in eighteen below its current production. So

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Speaker 1: again OPEC seeing demand for its crude oil in twenty

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Speaker 1: eighteen below its current production. Barkindo, who of course heads

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Speaker 1: up OPEC says that OPEC is optimistic on achieving its

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Speaker 1: goals of cut steel in the second half of this year,

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Speaker 1: and that demand for its crude oil up thirty two

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Speaker 1: point two million barrels per day, is lower than twenty seventeen. Yeah, well,

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Speaker 1: I think it's interesting there. What does JP More gonna

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Speaker 1: say about global demand? I mean, you look, Bruce said,

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Speaker 1: demand dynamics are a lot harder to judge and supply,

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Speaker 1: isn't it. So First, I would say that when we

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Speaker 1: look at the fall and oil prices we've had in

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Speaker 1: the last two or three months, we don't see it

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Speaker 1: as being reflective of a material fall off in the

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Speaker 1: demand for energy. Secondly, and more broadly, when we look

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Speaker 1: at our demand indication years and we track global demand

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Speaker 1: quite closely, we've seen a fairly nice acceleration and retail

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Speaker 1: spending and a surprisingly continued strength in the capital good space,

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Speaker 1: which start off the year very strong and we thought

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Speaker 1: was gonna cool. So the demand side of the global economy,

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Speaker 1: and it's a broad based story, has been I think

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Speaker 1: impressive here. In fact, one of the things that's holding

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Speaker 1: back US growth in the second quarter is the fact

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Speaker 1: that the demand growth is not being accompanied by inventory building,

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Speaker 1: which I think is actually somewhat of a positive as

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Speaker 1: we look forward into the second half of the year.

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Speaker 1: Let's come back with christ cast when a JP Morgan

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Speaker 1: with us is well, Tom keenan a Scarlett Food in

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Speaker 1: for David Girl we had a girls sighting. I believe

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Speaker 1: this morning we did have a girls sighting and he

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Speaker 1: is in Sun Valley. We've confirmed that. In fact, we've

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Speaker 1: arranged for him to make an appearance on surveillance by

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Speaker 1: phone of course, and he'll be on Bloomer Television all

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Speaker 1: day today as well. That's very very good, you know, folks,

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Speaker 1: it's so good to have Scarlett Food with us. As

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Speaker 1: we mentioned Romancing the Stone, I would have never known.

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Speaker 1: That's my value added. You're value add We say good

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Speaker 1: morning to Ella and Alexander. These are the twins of

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Speaker 1: of the an Espresso guy then espresso guy. Yeah, Mr

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Speaker 1: Clooney you call him then espresso guy. I don't think

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Speaker 1: most people I even't seen I don't think I've seen

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Speaker 1: his movies. Maybe I saw Oceans. You don't even know

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Speaker 1: who he is. I know who he is because when

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Speaker 1: Mr Clooney comes in to see Mr Rose, like the

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Speaker 1: whole building stops right, but no one calls him an

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Speaker 1: espresso guy. Oh I don't. I was Danny Ocean, No problem.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't he do an espresso? Does he does? He does?

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Speaker 1: Thank you. That's what he's known for, at least in

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Speaker 1: the US along my cohorts. That's not what he's known for.

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Speaker 1: That's more celebrity chat than David gar and I have

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Speaker 1: done in the last year. Scarlet fud with us any

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Speaker 1: finance investment in a celebrity chit chat is well. We

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Speaker 1: continue seriously with Bruce Casman Bloomberg Business Week folks last

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Speaker 1: week on technology. UM, I don't really have a bead

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Speaker 1: on the new issue, the digital issue, the print issue,

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Speaker 1: other than to say will be must read for all

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Speaker 1: of global Wall Street. It will have a real feature

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Speaker 1: in focus on one of the doers on Wall Street,

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Speaker 1: movers and shakers. I know this scarlet because, um one

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Speaker 1: of the printing trucks broke down in front of my

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Speaker 1: man's and I could see the issues in the back

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Speaker 1: as I got it surveillance. Limo to go to Tito

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Speaker 1: Borough today to get the Sikorski here, and of course

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Speaker 1: you can pick up your advanced copy as well at

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Speaker 1: the office. You forgot about that. Yeah, we do that

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Speaker 1: like in twenty four hours. But I'm really looking forward

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Speaker 1: to the new Bloomberg business weekend. This week is a

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Speaker 1: global Wall Street issued Germaine for any and all listening. Uh,

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Speaker 1: this morning we are the Bruce Casman of JP Morgan

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Speaker 1: and Bruce. I really want to rip up the script here.

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Speaker 1: I guess we can talk monetary theory. But everything shifted

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Speaker 1: in the last twelve hours of the political story about

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Speaker 1: Gary Cone is sort of the front runner to be

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Speaker 1: the new Janet Yelling to be the chairman of the

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve System. I guess next spring, next late winter, whatever,

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Speaker 1: what what what whatever it is. If we have Mr Quarrels,

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Speaker 1: and if we have Mr Kane, then how important is

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Speaker 1: the other vice chairman that's slot now taken by Stanley Fisher.

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Speaker 1: I think it it would be important. As as we know,

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Speaker 1: Gary Cone has got a lot of experience and financial markets,

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Speaker 1: but he has no experience as a policy maker, no

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Speaker 1: experience in setting monetary policy or as a as a

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Speaker 1: you know, in terms of his background is an education.

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Speaker 1: So I think he is a good manager. Is going

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Speaker 1: to rely a lot on the expertise at the FED

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Speaker 1: and there's a lot of turnover, as you noted, Uh,

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Speaker 1: there's going to be cumulatly five slots turning over at

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve Board. So the people who fill that,

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Speaker 1: along with the staff, are going to be very important,

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Speaker 1: I think in terms of his education, in terms of

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Speaker 1: his performance if he is the next FED chair, to

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Speaker 1: other FED officials leave voluntarily if there's a new FED

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Speaker 1: chair coming on. For instance, what we see Lyle Brainard's

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Speaker 1: stay on. What we see the other governors stay on

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Speaker 1: or do they then kind of gracefully exit. Well on

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Speaker 1: the board, you've got three seats open already, You've got

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Speaker 1: uh stand Is set up in the middle of next year,

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Speaker 1: and Janet Yellen. So that's already five of the seven. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You have brain Art and Powell, who's who have no

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Speaker 1: obligation in any way to to leave, and we don't

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Speaker 1: have any signals that they are thinking of leaving. Um.

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Speaker 1: I don't really expect it, but it's certainly possible uh

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Speaker 1: that Brainard, particularly who's got I think aspirations to do

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Speaker 1: other things, might at some point here I decide to leave.

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Speaker 1: The reason I ask is because if Gary Cohene were

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Speaker 1: to become fedcher, that would be a break from what

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Speaker 1: we've seen in the past, which is it was fairly

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Speaker 1: well telegraphed. Janet Yellen would be the fedher after ben Burnankey.

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Speaker 1: Ben Burnanke's ascension to fedcher was not a huge surprise

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Speaker 1: after Alan Green's been This would be a complete left

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Speaker 1: turn or right turn, or a U turn, or just

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Speaker 1: going off into a different dimension. Well, I would note

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Speaker 1: that as we were sitting here last year, at this time,

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Speaker 1: we were debating Larry Summers versus Janet Yellen, and that

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Speaker 1: did have an impact on the market as the market

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Speaker 1: began to think Larry Summers might have a different monetary

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Speaker 1: policy approach. So I do think there is a possibility

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Speaker 1: here that the uncertainty is going to start to be

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Speaker 1: if I'm a factor for the market. But the point

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Speaker 1: I think that's really important. What you're making is that

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Speaker 1: there's a link between Paul Vulker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanky

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Speaker 1: Janet Yellen in terms of experience policymakers, people who are

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Speaker 1: trained to do monetary policy, which we might be breaking now,

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Speaker 1: and that is something which I think is important. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I mean, Bruce, a little history here. This is before

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Speaker 1: uh Mr Clooney you know this is like ancient history, Scarlet. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Arthur Arthur Burns was a Columbia PhD. And there was

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Speaker 1: a real debate about how Chairman Burns did. And then

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Speaker 1: we had a guy who supported Hubert Humphrey supported Jimmy

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Speaker 1: Carter had a textra on history that kind of think

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Speaker 1: g William Miller, I mean, we've been down this route

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Speaker 1: before in relatively recent history, haven't we, Bruce, Well, we've

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Speaker 1: been down the road of having uh FED chairs who

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Speaker 1: haven't succeeded. And G William Miller was one and was

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Speaker 1: not trained as an econ a missed I'd like to

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Speaker 1: as a trained economists believe that that's the necessary qualification.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that is, but I do believe experience

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Speaker 1: and training do matter here. And if we come with

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Speaker 1: a new FED chair that doesn't have those characteristics, as

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Speaker 1: you were mentioning, Scarlett, they'll need to rely more on

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Speaker 1: the institution, and if they don't, they will potentially get

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Speaker 1: us into trouble. It's going to be interesting to see

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Speaker 1: a good manager, someone with financial market experience could do

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Speaker 1: a good job at the FED, but they need the

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Speaker 1: institutional backdrop to really rely on. All Right, So as

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Speaker 1: we look ahead to Fed Chairy Yellin's testimony at Teddy

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Speaker 1: m this morning, what would be the most notable things

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Speaker 1: she could say to quell some concerns or clear up

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Speaker 1: some uncertainty today? Well, I think the most important thing

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Speaker 1: we're looking for is is greater clarity on the timing

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Speaker 1: of when they're going to make the balance sheet announcement.

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Speaker 1: The Fed has told us they're going to do it soon,

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Speaker 1: and I think soon for most people's minds, just means

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Speaker 1: sometime this year. The minutes also suggest that the decision

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Speaker 1: has not been made as to the exact timing, getting

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Speaker 1: a little more emphasis from yelling about how soon is soon?

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Speaker 1: Is soon? Possibly July which is very soon? Uh September?

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Speaker 1: Or is it more likely to be out towards the

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Speaker 1: end of the year. I think that's going to be

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Speaker 1: the most important thing we're gonna look for, Bruce, Thank you,

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Speaker 1: Bruce Kasman. Chief Economist JP Morgan, very generous of his

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Speaker 1: time this morning. Scarlett, Food and time can stay with

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Speaker 1: his Coast to coast. This is Bloomberg. She took science

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Speaker 1: at Brown. One course. It was like, you know, first week, Uh,

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Speaker 1: what'd you take? Did you take physics and chemistry. Did

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Speaker 1: you do the real grind to We don't have what

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Speaker 1: I took. I took whatever when we were in school.

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Speaker 1: We had to take this stuff. Andrey Leviathan cover to

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Speaker 1: cover as well. It's maybe a little bit more advanced older,

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Speaker 1: older word you're looking for, Libby. We're all getting older,

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Speaker 1: even at the Pacific Investment Management Company. About what's going

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Speaker 1: on in uh Washington, your leader Mr Ivanson, after getting

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Speaker 1: brief by Liberty Cantrell, said this may actually affect investments.

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Speaker 1: Do you agree with Mr Ivanson or do you think

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Speaker 1: he was not misquoted but maybe just too much. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think you're taking a step back. We have been

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Speaker 1: skeptical that the president's agenda would be passed as quickly

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Speaker 1: as we think that at least markets have priced in

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Speaker 1: in the very beginning. We think that market expectations, especially

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Speaker 1: in the bond market, have come back more down to

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Speaker 1: earth now in terms of um their expectations for say,

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Speaker 1: fiscal expansion. So I think what he was saying yesterday

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Speaker 1: was we've always we've always been i would say, more

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Speaker 1: cautious about the pace and scope of fiscal expansion. But

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Speaker 1: what's going on on the hill in terms of the

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Speaker 1: Russia investigation only exacerbates that and remind us Libby of

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Speaker 1: the importance of the healthcare bill and how it determines

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Speaker 1: the timing of everything else that the White House wants

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Speaker 1: to accomplish and the Republican Congress wants to accomplish. Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 1: I mean to use a little bit of a pro

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Speaker 1: prosaic analogy. You just think about kind of train cars

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Speaker 1: through a tunnel, that you have to actually get healthcare

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Speaker 1: off the off of the agenda before you can move

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Speaker 1: on to the fiscal year eight team budget, which then

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Speaker 1: sets up something called for the reconciliation process, which is um,

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Speaker 1: you know, incredibly um, you know, sort of inside baseball.

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Speaker 1: But the important thing about reconciliation is that it allows

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Speaker 1: tax reform to be passed with only fifty votes, not

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Speaker 1: sixty votes in the Senate, and then you can move

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Speaker 1: onto tax reform, so healthcare the fiscally you're eight team budget,

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Speaker 1: and then only then you can go can you can

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Speaker 1: move onto tax reform? So again kind of yet tracked. Um, sorry,

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Speaker 1: train cars through a through a tunnel. I like that analogy,

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Speaker 1: and we've seen how important it is to only be

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Speaker 1: able to pass something with fifty votes, with the difficulty

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Speaker 1: getting this healthcare bill off the ground here, Uh, does

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Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell canceling the first two weeks of the aug

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Speaker 1: recess change anything here? You know? I I would be Um,

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Speaker 1: I'm personally skeptical. Uh. The reason is is that this

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Speaker 1: is this is gonna be a heavy lift from the beginning. Um,

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Speaker 1: get healthcare again, probably the most complex area policy making

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Speaker 1: on the Hill. There has not been unanimity among Republicans

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Speaker 1: on healthcare for like thirty years. So the fact that

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Speaker 1: this has been you know, as a harder slog than

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Speaker 1: I think something some people expect, it is not necessarily

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Speaker 1: surprising to us at PIMCO. I don't think extending recess

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Speaker 1: for two weeks is really going to change those dynamics.

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Speaker 1: It's not really your remit, but I'm want to ask

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Speaker 1: the question, and it was Greg Valiers stunning us. I

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Speaker 1: believe it was two days ago with the idea of

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Speaker 1: the Republicans could lose the House. Is that within your

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Speaker 1: reading in your research, you know, look, they need to

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Speaker 1: lose twenty four seats in order to lose the House. Um,

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Speaker 1: because of redistricting, that still looks like it could be difficult. However,

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Speaker 1: if it is a way of election and Democrats are

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Speaker 1: mobilized and they run good candidates, it is absolutely possible.

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Speaker 1: Although the special elections don't give us reason to believe

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Speaker 1: that that might be. However, I would I would just

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Speaker 1: I mean, I would just caveat that is that those

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Speaker 1: special elections were in really read districts, um including kind

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Speaker 1: of ruby red districts, and the margins with which those

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Speaker 1: Republicans want were much smaller than what they would Trump

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Speaker 1: had went just just a few sorry months before. Let

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Speaker 1: me cantra with this with PIMCO to drive the conversation forward.

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Speaker 1: Here is Scarlett Lundquist. Thank you for that introduction. I

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Speaker 1: love it when you do that. I am in for

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Speaker 1: David Garrow who is in Sun Valley, Idaho. Will be

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Speaker 1: checking in with him later. He's attending the Ellen and

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Speaker 1: Co media conference. Tom As you mentioned, our guest right

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Speaker 1: now is Libby Cantrell. She's e v P Executive vice

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Speaker 1: president of PIMCO, but that doesn't really explain what she does.

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Speaker 1: She analyzes and coordinates pimco's response to public policy issues,

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Speaker 1: and of course, on the forefront of public policy right

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Speaker 1: now is healthcare. We talked Libby about how Senate Majority

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Speaker 1: Leader Mitch McConnell extended the or I should say, delayed

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Speaker 1: uh the August recess by the first two weeks, so

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Speaker 1: they don't get to go home, they have to stay

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Speaker 1: in Washington to work on the healthcare bill. If they

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Speaker 1: don't get anything done in these first two weeks of August,

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Speaker 1: what happens then? What what's the next step? Well, I

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Speaker 1: think that they will. I would presume that they would

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Speaker 1: start trying to work with Democrats. I think that for

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Speaker 1: many folks on the Hill that have seemed like the

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Speaker 1: sort of next logical step um just because these things,

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Speaker 1: again they're difficult. There hasn't been agreement among the Republican caucus,

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Speaker 1: and it will be much much easier if they do

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Speaker 1: this on a bipartisan basis. They will have a lot

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Speaker 1: more cushion in terms of actually passing legislation. So I

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Speaker 1: think that's probably the next step. However, as we were

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Speaker 1: just talking about that is that will predicate the timing

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Speaker 1: or determine the timing of things like tax reform in

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Speaker 1: the budget, and so if the healthcare st hijacks the

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Speaker 1: congressional agenda in the fall, then the means that it

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Speaker 1: could tax tax reform could even slip further. So if

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Speaker 1: they work with Democrats on healthcare, or they can't do

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Speaker 1: tax reform at the same time, can they right, because

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Speaker 1: you're precluded from considering to reconciliation bills at once UM

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Speaker 1: So if they if they go, if they go with Democrats,

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Speaker 1: and that gives them a little bit more fungibility than

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Speaker 1: they can pass a fiscal year eight team budget. But

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Speaker 1: I think something that people should just pay attention to

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Speaker 1: this fall it is it is not clear that the

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Speaker 1: road to passage for fiscal year a team budget is

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Speaker 1: going to be an easy one. Among Republicans, there is

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Speaker 1: a lot of sort of conflict about how much spending

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Speaker 1: UM they want to UM have for entitlement programs over

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Speaker 1: the next ten years, should the spending cuts sort of

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Speaker 1: the how how significant to the spending cuts be UM

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Speaker 1: And if they don't pass a fiscal year eight team budget,

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Speaker 1: they will not be able to consider tax reform under reconciliation,

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Speaker 1: which means that they would actually have to do a

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Speaker 1: bipartisan tax bill, which then I think decreases the chances

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Speaker 1: that will see tax before the midterms pretty significantly. Sounds

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Speaker 1: like a big old mess. Tom. Maybe that's the point,

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Speaker 1: and I think Scarlett makes a really good point. Libby

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Speaker 1: legislation is always difficult, always ugly. Is the system broken?

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Speaker 1: I mean, we used to have committee hearings August gentlemen

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Speaker 1: and women, Olympia snow would Chin have open hearings for

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00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 1: that matter. Yeah, but you know, I can't remember who

430
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 1: I'll give credit either. The post of the New York

431
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 1: Times had a great chart which showed the Republican hearings

432
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 1: of this healthcare process versus whatever the other one. I mean,

433
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,919
Speaker 1: I mean it's a new Wed. We've had no public

434
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 1: hearings on how Care, and unlike Obamacare, you know, there

435
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 1: were a hundred hearings in the Senate there. I think

436
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 1: we're eighty nine in the House on Obamacare that still

437
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 1: was a partisan bill. I would just I would argue

438
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: that passing partisan legislation in Washington is really difficult and

439
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 1: arguably doesn't necessarily lead to great policy making. And you

440
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 1: can look at sort of examples throughout history. I think

441
00:22:56,560 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 1: Obamacare probably being one of those where partisan assesses like

442
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 1: reconciliation that basically are predicated on passing legislation just by

443
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 1: one party support. It just doesn't produce the policy. Your

444
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 1: celebrity loads on. My vast knowledge of your world, Libby

445
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 1: is Tommy Lee Jones and the movie Lincoln and and

446
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 1: you know, I mean that's my idea. Civics lesson was

447
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 1: a yelling and screaming of eighteen sixty three and the

448
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 1: imancimate Emancipation Proclamation. Really nothing's changed except now it's all

449
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 1: going private, right yeah, and it's going very partisan. Um,

450
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 1: you know, I think the other thing that's changed is

451
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 1: that expectations, the way that their setting expectations are just

452
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 1: I don't think they're realistic. So to put it in

453
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 1: a context, to pass the Reagan tax reform bill in

454
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,719
Speaker 1: six that basically took three years from start to finish.

455
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 1: To pass Obamacare took fourteen months, and again that was via,

456
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:54,159
Speaker 1: you know, a partisan process. I think that that the

457
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 1: idea that they were going to be able to pass healthcare,

458
00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 1: tax reform, infrastructure of deregulation in one that seems herculan

459
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: under the best of circumstances, and given the specter of

460
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: the Russian investigation, it just, you know, arguably, it just

461
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 1: seems completely unrealistic. At this point, you brought up the

462
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:14,360
Speaker 1: Russian investigation. UM, I know that you coordinate the pim

463
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 1: coast response to public policy issues. Is this the public

464
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: policy issue in any way? I mean I wouldn't you know,

465
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 1: I wouldn't argue for PIMCO UM specifically, but clearly you

466
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:27,400
Speaker 1: know how it affects the domestic agenda, will impact markets,

467
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 1: and if it does lead to um, you know, more

468
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 1: sort of destabilizing events. I don't think anybody thinks that

469
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 1: impeachment is likely at this point, but clearly if that

470
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 1: were the the endgame, not saying that it will be,

471
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,360
Speaker 1: but if that were, then that would also be very

472
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 1: destabilizing and something that you know, markets and PIMCO would

473
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 1: pay attention to. President Trump came back from the G

474
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 1: twenty meeting, I think, believing that he had a good showing,

475
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 1: he did what he wanted to do, He got a

476
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 1: message out, he had a two and a half hour

477
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,919
Speaker 1: meeting with Vladimir Putin. I mean, he came back and

478
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 1: he felt good. Uh. This all these Russian allegations of

479
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 1: the emails, Donald Trump Jr's uh email, his tweets, all

480
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 1: of that, it kind of detracts from that to what

481
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 1: extent has the good work that the president feels he's

482
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 1: accomplished at G twenty been undone. Yeah, I mean I

483
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,879
Speaker 1: I think that this has been a pattern, honestly, where

484
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 1: the White House, the administration has felt like they've had successes,

485
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 1: particularly on the international stage, and then they come back

486
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: to sort of the realities of um, you know, a

487
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,360
Speaker 1: domestic situation that's not as favorable, and this president has

488
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 1: low approval ratings, um, you know, historically low if you

489
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: look at you know, other presidencies in modern history, and

490
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,400
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know if one good trip really

491
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 1: changes that dynamic. You've been following the headlines from twenty right, Yeah,

492
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 1: I look at it as the president coming home, and

493
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 1: of course we had no idea what he was coming

494
00:25:55,119 --> 00:26:00,200
Speaker 1: back back into. I mean, it's it's not lame duck,

495
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: it's original duck. We've never been here? Is is that

496
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 1: wonderful Fox article yesterday was seventeen experts on collusion and conspiracy,

497
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 1: which none of us studied in school except the lawyers listening.

498
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: I mean, the fact is, Libby, what's the forward view

499
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 1: for Republicans given this political chaos? Yeah, I mean, I

500
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 1: think Republicans on the Hill and Congress really really want

501
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 1: to put some points on the board, so to speak.

502
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 1: So they really want to see some legislative win. As

503
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 1: we discussed healthcare, looks less likely that they'll see a

504
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 1: legislative win on that, at least on a partisan basis. Um.

505
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,360
Speaker 1: So that means that they will, I think, really try

506
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 1: to focus on tax reform. But if they use reconciliation, uh,

507
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 1: it means that they have the same kind of voting dynamic.

508
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: You need to get fifty of fifty two senators and

509
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 1: Republican senators to sign on to what is probably not

510
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 1: going to be an easy bill. Um. You know, I

511
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 1: just think it's it's hercula And honestly, Scarlett, as you know,

512
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 1: within his wonderful note this morning, he mentions that conservatives

513
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:07,160
Speaker 1: will be just an uproar over the idea of keeping

514
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 1: the two taxes of the affordable correct that Obamacare tax

515
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 1: unwealthy individuals and the point eight percent payroll tax hike.

516
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 1: That's what thank you, right, and that will arguably make

517
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:24,439
Speaker 1: the CBO score better. Um, which I think McConnell is,

518
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 1: which is part of yeah, part of the objective. It's

519
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 1: also trying to assuage a moderates by a funding medicaid

520
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 1: a little bit better than the previous legislation. I don't.

521
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 1: I still don't think it gets in there very quickly.

522
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 1: We get questions in from our guests like, you know,

523
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: how do I get my kid into brown or you know,

524
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 1: important things like that. Libby, here's a smart question. Thank

525
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 1: you Cleveland for this. And we're talking to here about

526
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 1: the dynamic of the new Republican Party, the Trump Republican Party,

527
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 1: which is cuts. But is there any fiscal responsibility with that?

528
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 1: I mean, the deficit hawks? Is it just out the wind? Well?

529
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 1: I think in terms of the Trump administration, there's probably

530
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,439
Speaker 1: a mixed view, of course. Oh and b Director Um

531
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:12,719
Speaker 1: mcmulvaney was probably the leading deficit hawk when he was

532
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,400
Speaker 1: a member of Congress. Um. But the Secretary of Minuchins,

533
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 1: the NBC director Um cones they might be able to

534
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 1: actually allow for a little bit more a deficit expansion, however,

535
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,920
Speaker 1: a big However, the Congress is the gatekeeper, and those

536
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 1: deficit hawks among the Republicans, including step Ryan, still very

537
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 1: much exist. There's a president. Quickly, does the president understand

538
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:37,399
Speaker 1: that the Congress is the gatekeeper? I don't think he does. Okay,

539
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: expression politically, I just haven't seen any of it. Yeah,

540
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 1: I don't you know, look like there has been. There's

541
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: always a learning curve for a first time administration. In

542
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 1: terms of working with Congress, I would argue this learning

543
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 1: curve has been a lot to you. Okay, let me cancel.

544
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 1: Thank you so much. With pimcore. Thanks to Mr Ivison

545
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: when he reports into you see if he did, Okay,

546
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 1: tell him he did, think he did? He did well.

547
00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 1: I love to have Dan Ivison on at some point.

548
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 1: Scarlet fooling for David Gura bear hunting in Sun Valley.

549
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Brunt you by Bank of America, Mary Lynch.

550
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 1: With virtual reality, virtually everything will change, discover opportunities in

551
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 1: a transforming world VI of a mL dot Com slash VR,

552
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 1: Mary Lynch, Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated. Might put out

553
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 1: that video of Scarlet of of David bicycling this morning

554
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 1: with a grizzly bear running after him. That was that

555
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 1: was something that doesn't happen on Park Slope in Brooklyn.

556
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 1: It doesn't happen on Lexington Avenue in midtown Manhattan either.

557
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 1: So we went straight to the source and we've brought

558
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 1: in David Gura, who is in sun Valley, Idaho. Uh,

559
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 1: the flannel clad at David Gura. David, you have a

560
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 1: full day of interviews with some all stars. Yeah, no,

561
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 1: it's it's been great thus far. Tom Scarlett, thank you

562
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 1: very much. And and this is the one occasion I

563
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: get to wear my macinac Philson mcinac had on on air. Uh. Yeah,

564
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: it's it's it's an incredible conference in in terms of

565
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: who comes here. It started out as a small conference

566
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 1: centering on media. It's grown much bigger sense, and you

567
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 1: look at the themes each year to see what the

568
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 1: conversations are gonna be. Like. There's a big focus on

569
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 1: foreign policy. We saw a retired General David Petraeus arrived yesterday.

570
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 1: General Stanley mc crystal is gonna be here. Ambassador Richard

571
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 1: Hass of course, friend of surveillance, will be here, uh

572
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 1: speaking as well. There's a focus on AI this year.

573
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 1: Roney Abe Bits of Magic, Leap is gonna be here.

574
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 1: David Kenney, who heads up Watson for IBM AI a

575
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 1: big focus. And then healthcare something of course that's important

576
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: to the participants here and everyone in the in the US.

577
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 1: As Congress continues to debate what's gonna happen to healthcare policy.

578
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 1: A lot of insurance company ceo is here, the heads

579
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 1: of some major hospitals as well. I sat down with

580
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 1: Dr Toby cosgro of the Cleveland Clinic yesterday. He's here

581
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 1: to convene a panel on the preoid crisis in the US,

582
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: and we started off by talking about what he thinks

583
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 1: about the Republican healthcare bill in the Senate. Here's what

584
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 1: he had to say. Here's that conversation. We've seen the

585
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 1: back and forth year among legislators over there. July fourth

586
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 1: recess to come back to Washington. Uh, Mitch mcconal says,

587
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 1: there's going to be a bill on on Thursday. How

588
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 1: optimistic are you that that's going to lead to change

589
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 1: in healthcare in this country? First of all, I don't

590
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: think the bill is going to get past. I think

591
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 1: the legislatures went out they heard a lot from their

592
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 1: constituents across the country being very upset about the possibility

593
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 1: of having a number of people not being covered in

594
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: the future. What do you worried about when it comes

595
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 1: to healthcare. Yes, there's access to care and affordable insurance.

596
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 1: But one of the big issues that you're you're concerned

597
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 1: with right now. Well, one of the biggest issues that

598
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: I think we have to talk about is the health

599
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 1: of the country as a whole. We have an obesity

600
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 1: crisis where a third of the country now is obese

601
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 1: and that account for ten percent of the healthcare costs

602
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: in the United States. We have a smoking continues to

603
00:31:56,200 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 1: be eighteen percent the major cause of reversible as of cancer,

604
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: a preventable cause of cancer. And we have an opiate

605
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 1: crisis with sixty two thousand people dying this year, one

606
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 1: every nineteen minutes dying of overdoses opits. This is a

607
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 1: big problem. That's astonishing statistics. Do you think people get that.

608
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 1: Are people coming around to realizing how big a crisis

609
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 1: this is? Well, I think increasingly you're starting to, But

610
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 1: I don't think most people understand. Just like when I

611
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 1: told you the data, you went wild. That's a lot.

612
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 1: Uh And I think most people, even very educated people

613
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 1: and they know, don't realize the magnitude of the problem.

614
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: Until the vast majority of the people in the United

615
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 1: States understand how serious the problem is and the danger

616
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 1: of these drugs, I don't think we're going to see

617
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 1: something major change. You meet with politicians from across the spectrum,

618
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 1: including the President United States. What don't politicians get about

619
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 1: health policy? Why is it so hard to have a

620
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: conversation about policy exclusive politics? Well, the discussion right now

621
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 1: is going on around politics and cost. It is not

622
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 1: going on around health care reform. And healthcare reform is

623
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 1: going to have to deal with a major problem, which

624
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 1: is the escalating cost of healthcare, which is UH. And

625
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: we need to have federal action, both administrative and legislative,

626
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 1: to make care of people who are sick more efficient,

627
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 1: and we need to deal with the epidemics that I

628
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 1: just spoke about. Early on, we saw a variety of

629
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 1: business people walking in and out of the White House.

630
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 1: They meet with the president and leave. You're part of

631
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 1: the strategic and policy form the President who's convenued with

632
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: Steve Schwartzman. Uh, how well is it working? What's that

633
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: group like? Do you feel like they're listening to what

634
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 1: you have to say? Well, it's a very interactive hour

635
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: and a half or two hours that we have with

636
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 1: the president. He is very engaged and we all are

637
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 1: trying to bring our best ideas. Now where they go.

638
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 1: I don't think anybody can say at this point, but

639
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 1: it's a very interactive period of time. As Dr Toby

640
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 1: cosgo there the Cleveland Clinic, Tom and Scarlet, I caught

641
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 1: up with him before he embarked on a hike up

642
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,120
Speaker 1: a nearby hill. Here, of course, we are sit wait

643
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 1: in a very beautiful place. Interesting conference because it's half scheduled,

644
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: half programmed with panels like the one I described, the

645
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 1: other half just an opportunity for these participants to talk

646
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: to one another. But any number of visions. What is

647
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: the initial buzz, particularly David, with the distraction of the

648
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 1: city to the east Washington, A lot of people are

649
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 1: talking about regulation here it's it's a very funny conference,

650
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: and that the media is invited to stand on the sidelines.

651
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 1: Were not invited into the conference itself, so yesterday we

652
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 1: really just sort of post up outside the lodge and

653
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:32,760
Speaker 1: talk to people as they arrive, and and regulations seemed

654
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,760
Speaker 1: like a through line when I chatted with with everybody

655
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 1: who would come over to to chat ken langone said

656
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 1: that he thinks the President is keeping his promises. We're

657
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 1: seeing the regulatory burden lightened. You talked to Michael Eisner,

658
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 1: who of course was the former CEO of Disney. He

659
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 1: thinks that there's pluses and minuses to lighter regulation, especially

660
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 1: when it comes to media and telecommunications. And then David Zaslav,

661
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,919
Speaker 1: who had up Discovery Communications, saying he's optimistic. He thinks

662
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 1: the president is taking good steps towards lightning regulation, but

663
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:02,240
Speaker 1: he's still taking await and see a pro And of course, David,

664
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 1: this is a media conference as well, and there's a

665
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:10,720
Speaker 1: lot of curiosity over whether the White House directed uh

666
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: arms of government will approve the purchase of of Time

667
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 1: Warner by a T and t UM A lot at

668
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:21,279
Speaker 1: stake there for companies, and of course the president's displeasure

669
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 1: with some of the reporting from CNN has kind of

670
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 1: played into the speculation on whether that will be done.

671
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,800
Speaker 1: Are people talking about that? I mean, I know it's

672
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,839
Speaker 1: it's it's beyond their purview and to actually speculate on

673
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:34,360
Speaker 1: what can be done. And but this is a conference

674
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 1: at which a lot of deals were the seeds of

675
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:41,760
Speaker 1: deals get get get sewn right absolutely, And Jeff Bucaus

676
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 1: of Time Warner is here. He did not meet our

677
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,800
Speaker 1: request for your We did yell at Jeff as he arrived.

678
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:48,359
Speaker 1: He had not come over to chat. I think it's

679
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 1: fair to say a lot of the participants in this

680
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 1: conference are watching that deal closely to see what happens

681
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: to it, what what what the Justice Department is going

682
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 1: to say about it, if the FCC takes it up,

683
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 1: with the FEC is going to do with it. I

684
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 1: think it's a litmus test for a lot of them.

685
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:03,919
Speaker 1: Um and and just the conversation here continues to center

686
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 1: around content and the future of media and who's going

687
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 1: to control what. Of course, Sherry Redstone is here yes.

688
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:12,840
Speaker 1: Last last year, she was the real focus of this conference,

689
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 1: Scarlett and Tom. People wondering what was going to happen

690
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 1: with CBS and Viacom. We saw less moonves of CBS

691
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 1: yesterday's he arrived. We asked him explicitly if CBS was

692
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 1: considering buying a movie studio like lions Gate. He said, no,

693
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 1: the CBS has no interest. He's very happy with where

694
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 1: CBS is today. But consolidation, the future of content still

695
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:33,879
Speaker 1: very much front and center here in Sun Valley. Yeah.

696
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,800
Speaker 1: I I think that as well. With Verizon CEO Loman,

697
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 1: like Adam is there because he acquired Yahoo's uh Internet assets.

698
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 1: But there's a lot of questions about whether a Verizon

699
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 1: has to do more to continue to bolster its standing. David,

700
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 1: who will you be speaking with later today? I look

701
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 1: at the rundown for the television programs this afternoon and

702
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 1: your name is all over it. I want to talk

703
00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 1: with Tim arms Starting. You mentioned that verizes. Of course,

704
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 1: Tim Armstrong. Now this EO of Oath, which is this

705
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 1: hybrid of of a well and the Yahoo assets that

706
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 1: veries and acquired. I'm gonna be speak with Ambassador William Burns,

707
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 1: a former Deputy Secretary of State. A few more healthcare

708
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,359
Speaker 1: CEO s uh So, a very packed day again, looking

709
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 1: at a lot of different businesses, not just focusing on medium. David,

710
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 1: have you figured out you have the difference between a

711
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 1: gopher snake in a Western rattlesnake. I mean, this is

712
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 1: a serious, serious issue. They look the same, but they're not. Yes,

713
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 1: they look to say I'm stepping lively, Tom, I'm being

714
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 1: careful keeping watch for bears. I saw a moose a

715
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 1: few days ago. Uh but uh, you know, I know

716
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 1: that I know that you care greatly about my my

717
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 1: safety when it comes to bears. No bear sightings, yet

718
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 1: I can't concern just I need a clinic on go

719
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 1: for snakes. Versus rattlesnakes here David Gura wildlife surveillance out

720
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 1: on the tunder of the saw Tooth range or whatever.

721
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 1: It's called. A good good morning to all in Ido

722
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 1: listening serious sex M Channel one nineteen. Love that you're

723
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 1: listening in Montana. We have some good listen is it Montana?

724
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 1: We hear from Scarlett from time to time, David Girl,

725
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 1: will you go back from him in the coming days?

726
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 1: Um at sun Valley? I know Scarlett, food and time,

727
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 1: Keeth Scarlett. We're sort of like Washington. I guess it's

728
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 1: like what's next after the festivities of the last festivities.

729
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: That's an interesting way of describing it. Something that's something

730
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 1: for sure. Well, we have Janet Yellen speaking on Capitol

731
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,439
Speaker 1: Hill today. Today's a testimony. So that's a big deal.

732
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 1: And Bruce Casman said it would be a big deal, Yes,

733
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 1: especially in light of that political article last night which

734
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 1: indicated that the White House is primed to a point

735
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: or nominate Gary Cone as chief if he wants the job.

736
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 1: It's July. We're not we guess we're not there yet.

737
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:48,359
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe that's a post her term ends what next February. Yeah,

738
00:38:48,560 --> 00:39:04,720
Speaker 1: it's it's like in the next year. It is always

739
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,319
Speaker 1: a joy to speak to the economists from Vanderbilt. French

740
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:12,560
Speaker 1: Hill is of Arkansas, the second Congressional district, and we

741
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 1: enjoy speaking to him. And of course a most busy

742
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 1: time for Congressman Hill, the House of Financial Services Committee,

743
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 1: and many other events in Washington. I want to start

744
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: in a light note, uh, Congressman, if I could, which

745
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 1: is in eighteen sixty five, it wasn't funny the congress

746
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 1: people that stayed in August in eighteen sixty five, a

747
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 1: time of great worry over cholera, really had to worry

748
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,760
Speaker 1: about the ugly weather of Washington. Now we make jokes

749
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 1: about it. What do you people gonna do? Is your

750
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 1: recess is cut short? Is that going to affect you directly? Well? Tom,

751
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:51,320
Speaker 1: good morning, Always great to be with you. Always appreciate

752
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 1: the Vanderbilt plug. Uh. I think staying in Washington in

753
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 1: August is a source of infectious diseases with just a

754
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 1: bad attitude and this saying. But I'll tell you the

755
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 1: Senate a proposed to do two weeks more and try

756
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:07,720
Speaker 1: to get more of their work done. We the House

757
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 1: have a more orderly life, and we think we've gotten

758
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 1: our work done, so I'm eager to see them carry

759
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,839
Speaker 1: the water. So you'll be up on the coast of Maine,

760
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 1: no doubt with the Independent ingas king enjoying the healthful

761
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 1: clean air of me. Well, you know we're here to work.

762
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 1: I mean we uh. If we need to be in session,

763
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:25,799
Speaker 1: we ought to be in session, that's my view. And

764
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 1: if we need to be in the disimt, we need

765
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 1: to be in the district. There's so many topics to

766
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 1: go with them. But let me go to Chair Yelling.

767
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,320
Speaker 1: Is it appropriate for you to ask Chair Yelling or

768
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 1: anybody else today about Gary Khne in the future of

769
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 1: the FED? Are we are we tilting towards a trump

770
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 1: FED that will not be monetary PhDs, but will be

771
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 1: people like Randall Corals, people like Gary Khne, people like

772
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:54,359
Speaker 1: Kevin Warsh. Is that where we're heading? Well, time, I've

773
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,919
Speaker 1: always supported the FED a mix of governors. I think

774
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 1: governors need to have business experience and banking experience, and

775
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 1: we need to have people with economic policy experience on

776
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:07,399
Speaker 1: the FED. I think it should always be a good

777
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:12,359
Speaker 1: mix to have the best discussion about setting interest rate policy.

778
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 1: I get that. UM. I wonder though, as Cherry Yellen

779
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,760
Speaker 1: gets ready to testify before the House Financial Services Committee

780
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 1: UH this afternoon. This morning, I should say whether there's

781
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 1: a sense among committee members that the Federal Reserve perhaps

782
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 1: is rushing to reduce its balance sheet because of this

783
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:33,720
Speaker 1: internal deadline, that her term is coming up in February

784
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 1: and they want to get started on this before she leaves. Well,

785
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 1: it's a good question. I think they should have, of

786
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,319
Speaker 1: course my view, and it says that the Fed should

787
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 1: have lowered interest rates to zero during the crisis, which

788
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 1: they did, And as a banker at the time, I

789
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 1: was not a big supporter of the q E moves.

790
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:54,240
Speaker 1: I don't think they got GDP or job improvements based

791
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 1: on any of the q E actions. And for I'm

792
00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,919
Speaker 1: a big believer that the feed should be treasuries only

793
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 1: in terms of using treasuries as their open market operations.

794
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 1: So with that said, I do think, because Governor Powell

795
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 1: has outlined, they should have a gradual reduction of the

796
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 1: said balance sheet back to an appropriate size to be

797
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 1: a neutral player in the economy. It was about six

798
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 1: percent of GDP before the crisis. It's grown to percent

799
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 1: of GDP now, with a substantial percentage of both the

800
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 1: Treasury portfolio and the government fact cms port trolio is

801
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 1: the timing right for the FED to pursue that. Now

802
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 1: there's all kinds of questions about whether the inflation that

803
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 1: we've seen UM can start to pick up once again, UH,

804
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 1: the level of productivity growth with fiscal policy questions. Well,

805
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 1: we we have not gotten the economic growth that we

806
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 1: should have coming out of the recession. And I believe

807
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 1: it's partially for non monetary policy structural factors such as

808
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,160
Speaker 1: what we've done in the regulatory market that we haven't

809
00:42:57,160 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: been pro growth in our in our tax or or

810
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:03,839
Speaker 1: regulatory policies in the past eight years. But you know,

811
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 1: because we can't leave the balance sheet and and miss

812
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: price uh the economy if we have, I think they

813
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 1: should lay on a plan uh to both raise rates

814
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 1: of rates are indicated to be so and shrink the

815
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 1: balance sheet. But they have to do so in a

816
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 1: thoughtful way, and they have to keep into mind all

817
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 1: the Exhaugenist factors going on in the economy. But not

818
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 1: do it. I think it's a mistake, and I think

819
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 1: they should have started sooner. Personal if you're just joining

820
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 1: us from the second Congressional District Arkansas french Hill with

821
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 1: the House of Financial Services Committee as well, I'd be

822
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 1: rude and inappropriate. You wouldn't come back on Congressman if

823
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 1: I didn't ask you about the festivities in Washington? Are

824
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 1: we distracted? Are we going to get any legislative legislation done?

825
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 1: And critically our GOP members of the House at risk

826
00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:56,360
Speaker 1: of reelection because of what we're seeing, the day to

827
00:43:56,400 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 1: day scandals that we see within the Trump administration. What Tom,

828
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 1: You've covered politics and economics a long time, you know

829
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:07,240
Speaker 1: that in every administration there's a series of main events

830
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 1: and then there's some side events that are important and

831
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 1: they do impact policy. And we've certainly got that going

832
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 1: on here. We've got investigations in both his House and Senate.

833
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 1: We've got Bob Mueller doing an investigation. You is, let's

834
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 1: let them do it. Let's see where the cards fall

835
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 1: out of those investigations. But in the meantime, let's stay

836
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:29,719
Speaker 1: focused on getting tax reform done, getting the reforms we

837
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 1: need to do in the Affordable Care Act, and stay

838
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:35,959
Speaker 1: focused on is that wavering with with what we've seen

839
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:39,440
Speaker 1: Congressmen in the last seventy two hours, Is that wavering

840
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:42,839
Speaker 1: I mean it is exceptional the anecdote Scarlet and I

841
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 1: have received in the last twenty four US. Is that

842
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:50,879
Speaker 1: commitment wavering among the Grand Old Party? I don't see

843
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 1: it wavering behind the scenes, because we're committed to trying

844
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 1: to get these three big planks that we think are

845
00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 1: important for our economy to grow faster. Fix the Affordable

846
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:03,200
Speaker 1: Care Act, fixure, help fix our health markets, get tax reform,

847
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 1: and get our regulatory process continued to be pro growth.

848
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 1: Is this distracting, Well, of course it's distracting. But is

849
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 1: it keeping us from doing our job in our committities

850
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 1: and among our our colleagues. It is. It is not

851
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:21,439
Speaker 1: restraining us from trying to have that right policy approach. Congressman, though,

852
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 1: I wonder who is your go to person in the

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Speaker 1: White House? Um? Following these email disclosures from Donald Trump Jr.

854
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:31,799
Speaker 1: Getting carried Kushner involved, getting palmanaphor who's no longer with

855
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 1: the Trump administration involved, who is your go to person

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00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:38,360
Speaker 1: for these initiatives on tax reform, on healthcare, on on

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00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 1: other legislation. Well, I'll say from the very beginning, early

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00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 1: in the administration, and it was it was fortunate because

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00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:48,879
Speaker 1: they were not subject to the stall job by the

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00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 1: minority leader. Over in the Senate, Gary Cohen is the

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00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:56,320
Speaker 1: National Economic Council Director, staffed up with a good quality

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00:45:56,400 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 1: group of people with domestic and international economic experience. It's

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00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:03,280
Speaker 1: on the White House staff and Secretary is now getting

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00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 1: some of his tops leadership in place. And for those

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00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 1: of us working on economic policy and tax policy, really

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00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 1: it's the n EC staff on the White House staff

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Speaker 1: and the leadership with Secretary Minution at the Treasury that

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00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: we're working with on a regular basis. From all our listeners, congressman,

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00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 1: whatever they're politics, it's good to have an economist in

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00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:25,879
Speaker 1: the House of Representatives. French Hill with a second congressional

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00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 1: district of Arkansas around a little rock, you know. It's

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00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:33,760
Speaker 1: like it's not like jerrymandered Scarlett. It's like a real district,

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00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:36,400
Speaker 1: a real district. Yeah, it's very cool. Not one of

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00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:40,399
Speaker 1: these districts that goes stretches like made up fiction. French Hill.

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Speaker 1: He's in the House Financial Services Committee. Um, I really enjoyed.

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00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 1: He gives really answers, you know, and he's an economist,

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00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:49,880
Speaker 1: like you said, so when we talked to him about

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Speaker 1: what Jerry Yellen is going to see later this morning,

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00:46:53,960 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 1: it resonates. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:13,160
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene.

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00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 1: David Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you

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00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 1: could always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Runch you

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Speaker 1: by Bank of America Mary Lynch. With virtual reality, virtually

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00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:46,279
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Speaker 1: Fenner and Smith Incorporated