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Speaker 2: the Volume. Happy Thursday, everybody. If all of you guys
Speaker 2: are having an incredible week, it is good to be
Speaker 2: back at an awesome final ski trip of the year
Speaker 2: down in the South Lake Tahoe area. Skin Heavenly for
Speaker 2: the first time ever. Unbelievable view going up that gondola
Speaker 2: out of that little strip by where the casinos are.
Speaker 2: You get to see the entirety of the lake and
Speaker 2: unbelievable conditions we had. They got a bunch of fresh
Speaker 2: powder before we showed up, and just got to have
Speaker 2: a good little kickback, one last little bit of fun
Speaker 2: before we get into the grind of the postseason. Bear
Speaker 2: with me a little bit today. I was up at
Speaker 2: two am navigating a blizzard through the pass there as
Speaker 2: we headed back into Reno and connecting flights and Salt
Speaker 2: Lake and all that good stuff, and we're finally back home.
Speaker 2: A little bit brain fried, but I wanted to get
Speaker 2: some stuff out there from the incredible week of hoops
Speaker 2: we had while I was gone. So what we're gonna
Speaker 2: do the plan for right now. Obviously, as we go
Speaker 2: into the weekend, there's a kind of a funky NBA
Speaker 2: schedule because of the NCAA tournament. So what we're gonna
Speaker 2: do today is, I'm gonna go over my four biggest
Speaker 2: takeaways from my time on vacation, X's and O's in
Speaker 2: the Phoenix Denver game from last night, a little bit
Speaker 2: more surface level stuff with some other stuff around the
Speaker 2: league is Obviously I wasn't watching as closely while I
Speaker 2: was out of town, So we're just gonna do a
Speaker 2: quick touch on all those things around the league. Then
Speaker 2: we're gonna take the rest of the weekend off, and
Speaker 2: then starting Monday, Grind's Time Power Rankings, We're gonna start
Speaker 2: doing film sessions more regularly. We're gonna start building out
Speaker 2: our playoff previews from there too, should be a lot
Speaker 2: of fun. I'm really excited. You guys are the joefore
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Speaker 2: them throughout the week. Next week, all right, let's talk
Speaker 2: some basketball. So my first big takeaway from my time
Speaker 2: out of town last week. I guess the last time
Speaker 2: we recorded a show was with the nerd SESSH guys
Speaker 2: last week on Friday, So it's been about a week.
Speaker 2: Number One, Phoenix is not better than Denver, but they
Speaker 2: are the biggest threat to knock off Denver in the
Speaker 2: Western Conference. I thought, even though, no, it's not just
Speaker 2: because the last night's game. I don't think last night's
Speaker 2: game was some sort of big sweeping declaration. I saw
Speaker 2: the Sun's guy that I follow that tweeted something along
Speaker 2: the lines of like, oh man, we got to start
Speaker 2: rethinking the MVP race now by hold on, everyone, just
Speaker 2: chill out for just a second. Like it's a really
Speaker 2: weird game. Obviously, with Jamal Murray being out and with
Speaker 2: use of Nurkids being out, it just fundamentally alters the
Speaker 2: entire dynamic of this particular matchup. But I do think
Speaker 2: that there are some things specifically in that matchup that
Speaker 2: pausedive for some issues which we're going to talk about,
Speaker 2: which is what I think does translate to that postseason
Speaker 2: setting and what I think makes them the biggest threat. Obviously,
Speaker 2: Nurkic is just an important element of this matchup because
Speaker 2: he's one of the few guys in the league that
Speaker 2: can kinda sort of hang physically with Jokic, which gives
Speaker 2: Phoenix some more flexibility to defend actions two on two
Speaker 2: and one on one, especially with Jokics post ups, which
Speaker 2: can help them stay out of rotation. And then obviously
Speaker 2: when you take Murray out of the equation, it's just
Speaker 2: a huge drop off in terms of that second tier
Speaker 2: shot creation. Oh Michael Porter Junior can scale up his offense,
Speaker 2: and honestly, he's been one of the stories in the
Speaker 2: last couple of the months for Denver just how good
Speaker 2: Michael Porter Junior has been offensively, even on nights when
Speaker 2: Jamal Murray's not available. But obviously he's more consistent as
Speaker 2: a third scoring option than he is as a second
Speaker 2: scoring option, and when you slot him up into that
Speaker 2: spot and there can be a little bit more inconsistency.
Speaker 2: He had a little bit of an off night, right,
Speaker 2: Going from Jamal Murray as your main kind of two
Speaker 2: man game option with Jokic and Reggie Jackson being your
Speaker 2: backup guard to suddenly Reggie Jackson being your main two
Speaker 2: man game partner, and then having Colin Gillespie out there
Speaker 2: getting minutes as that backup point guard. That's just big
Speaker 2: drop off. And both of those guys, Reggie Jackson and
Speaker 2: Colin Gilespie both had really tough nights on the ball.
Speaker 2: And again, like that two man game, what does that
Speaker 2: expression mean? Two man game? What that means is you're
Speaker 2: running these actions with these two players a bunch of
Speaker 2: different ways to do it right. You can invert it,
Speaker 2: you run on different spots of the four you can
Speaker 2: run out of the post, you can run out of
Speaker 2: pick ball screens, driple handoffs, whatever you call. It's any
Speaker 2: sort of like two man action. Right in that two
Speaker 2: man game. What makes it a two man game is
Speaker 2: that both guys are a threat, and specifically the Murray
Speaker 2: Jokics two man game, the threat there is like you
Speaker 2: switch a slower footed guy onto Jamal Murray, he can
Speaker 2: beat him with tough io over the top shot making,
Speaker 2: same thing with Nicole Jokich. If you switch a smaller
Speaker 2: player on him, could take him down to the post,
Speaker 2: score in the post, or draw double teams in the post.
Speaker 2: If you run drop coverage, Jamal Murray as all the
Speaker 2: drop beating shots in the book. Right, Like, there's a
Speaker 2: two pronged approach there, and on the right night, you know,
Speaker 2: you can run more dhos with Michael Porter Junior and
Speaker 2: he's got it going and it works on the right night,
Speaker 2: Reggie Jackson can be a reasonable fact simile of Jamal Murray.
Speaker 2: But obviously there's a drop off there. And so honestly,
Speaker 2: between Nurkics being out and Jamal Murray being out, there's
Speaker 2: a lot of this game that doesn't look very similar
Speaker 2: to what an actual playoff series between these two teams
Speaker 2: would look like. But what does translate The biggest one
Speaker 2: to me, that by far the biggest thing that stood
Speaker 2: out to me on tape watching this game, and obviously
Speaker 2: with something that we notice in there match up a
Speaker 2: month ago, but it was kind of glaring in this
Speaker 2: game as well as Phoenix can keep Denver in rotation
Speaker 2: on defense? Now, what does that mean to be in rotation?
Speaker 2: What that means is like there is an open man
Speaker 2: and the other elements of your defense are operating in
Speaker 2: a man down situation and they're having to leave their
Speaker 2: man to go to the next guy in line and
Speaker 2: vice versa. So essentially, just to draw it out in
Speaker 2: a very simple, basic way, let's pretend Kevin Durantz posting
Speaker 2: up on the right block and he draws a double
Speaker 2: from the face side from the elbow right, and let's
Speaker 2: say that they rotate around in a Winchild wiper rotation.
Speaker 2: They take away that first pass of the wing. They're
Speaker 2: matched up on the top, so the skip passes open
Speaker 2: once that skip pass is made. No one's actually matched
Speaker 2: up there, right, two guys on KD. There's a guy garden,
Speaker 2: the guy top of the key guy garden the guy
Speaker 2: in the opposite wing, and maybe in the opposite dunker
Speaker 2: spot or in the opposite kind of like between the
Speaker 2: wing and the corner, depending on how they have the
Speaker 2: floor set up. Right, But that corner guy, the week guy,
Speaker 2: he doesn't have a matchup, so as soon as that
Speaker 2: pass is made, somebody else has to rotate there, which
Speaker 2: means the next guy has to rotate to his man,
Speaker 2: which means the next guy has to rotate to his man,
Speaker 2: and so on and so forth. To put it in
Speaker 2: a very simple term, to be in rotation is to
Speaker 2: not be matched up defensively, which can cause all sorts
Speaker 2: of problems, not just with being constant closeout situations where
Speaker 2: you're inevitably just chasing the next guy off the three
Speaker 2: point line, but then he makes a nice driving kick.
Speaker 2: Read now you're chasing the next guy off the three
Speaker 2: point line. In addition to that, it also hurts you
Speaker 2: in rebounding situations. When you're in rotation, you are not
Speaker 2: matched up. If you're not matched up, you don't know
Speaker 2: who to box out. If you don't know who to
Speaker 2: box out, there's probably gonna be one or two guys
Speaker 2: having a free run at the basket. For instance, Phoenix
Speaker 2: has been a good offensive rebounding team all season. Why
Speaker 2: because they frequently draw second defenders and third defenders in
Speaker 2: ball screens and ISOs and post ups, and because of that,
Speaker 2: they have the defense in rotation consistently, and so there's
Speaker 2: usually a sun somewhere on the floor that is gonna
Speaker 2: get a free run to the offensive glass, and they
Speaker 2: can have a lot of success that way. But like,
Speaker 2: there was three ways in particular, I want to dive
Speaker 2: into the specific kind of x's and O stuff. There
Speaker 2: are three ways that Phoenix was keeping Denver in rotation
Speaker 2: in this game. One was bringing Yokic up to the
Speaker 2: level of the screen. Phoenix has really high level pull
Speaker 2: up shooters, and when they pull again, it's a very
Speaker 2: simple push and pull.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: We talk about this pushing pull all the time on
Speaker 2: the show. You have your on ball guy, you have
Speaker 2: your screen defender. If the screen defender has to come
Speaker 2: out high and the roller can get behind him, now
Speaker 2: you have to tag the roller, which puts you in
Speaker 2: rotation because now you essentially have two on the ball,
Speaker 2: and you're bringing a guy over to guard the roll man.
Speaker 2: There's somebody open on the weak side. As long as
Speaker 2: that ball gets worked around, you're gonna be in rotation defensively.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: If the big guy can drop back and stay with
Speaker 2: the roller in front of him, then you don't have
Speaker 2: to tag the roller, and that allows you to stay
Speaker 2: home elsewhere, and it allows you to stay matched up
Speaker 2: and be out of rotation.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: The problem is there is by leaving Yokics further back,
Speaker 2: there's room there in the middle of the floor to operate.
Speaker 2: And those are really good players, and Devin Booker and
Speaker 2: Kevin Durant and Bradley beal that you're allowing to operate
Speaker 2: in that middle area of the floor. Right. So like
Speaker 2: Phoenix being a team that has the type of talent
Speaker 2: that will pull Yokic out to the level of the
Speaker 2: screen is an important part of what allows them to
Speaker 2: keep Denver in rotation defensively. Now we're gonna talk about
Speaker 2: it in a minute, because there's a case to be
Speaker 2: made that Denver probably shouldn't bring Yolkic up to the level,
Speaker 2: but we'll get there. Right. Secondly, Nail help and Iso
Speaker 2: doubles I thot Reggie Jackson was the main culprit here
Speaker 2: a lot of like guarding a guy on the wing,
Speaker 2: and you know, one of the Phoenix ball handlers makes
Speaker 2: a drive towards the middle. Imagine Phoenix pall handler in
Speaker 2: the right wing, Reggie Jackson guarding the guy on the
Speaker 2: left wing, okay, and Devin Booker, let's say, rips through
Speaker 2: to the left and kind of gets towards the middle.
Speaker 2: Reggie Jackson is sinking way down into the lane and
Speaker 2: leaving his guy open on the on that wing. And
Speaker 2: so from there it's just a simple swing pass. And
Speaker 2: now it's in rotation. And this is not in rotation
Speaker 2: against a team that has lower level offensive talent that
Speaker 2: you can kind of offer a token contest at or
Speaker 2: a token close out out and kind of chase them
Speaker 2: off the line. Phoenix is just has lasers all over
Speaker 2: the floor, right, And so when you're in rotation against them,
Speaker 2: you can be in a big issue where whoever you
Speaker 2: leave open is a big time threat to knock that
Speaker 2: shot down. Right. But yeah, Reggie Jackson sinking too far
Speaker 2: down into the nail. And then also like kind of
Speaker 2: randomly double teaming without much purpose. He was getting out
Speaker 2: of position a lot. They were getting into rotation off that.
Speaker 2: And then lastly, the offensive glass like I mentioned earlier.
Speaker 2: Phoenix is a good offensive rebounding team because they get
Speaker 2: you in a rotation a lot. But also Denver, do
Speaker 2: you guys remember the offensive glass was an issue the
Speaker 2: last time Phoenix came to town. Matter of fact, if you've
Speaker 2: been watching the Nuggets closely, it's been an issue for
Speaker 2: a little while. Denver is twenty seven and defensive rebounding
Speaker 2: percentage since the All Star break. Now, the starters have
Speaker 2: been fine. They're about seventy five percent defensive rebounding percentage,
Speaker 2: which is good, not great, but it's good. Right, that's fine.
Speaker 2: But basically every other configuration of every other type of
Speaker 2: lineup that Denver's putting out there right now, they're struggling
Speaker 2: to rebound. And that's been a consistent issue. Now, why
Speaker 2: do I Why am I harping so much on rotation?
Speaker 2: It is just really it's a lot easier to get
Speaker 2: quality shots playing driving kick basketball against a defense that
Speaker 2: is in rotation than it is to get quality shots
Speaker 2: in one on one, in two on two situations against
Speaker 2: good individual defenders. Right, So for instance, what is the advantage?
Speaker 2: Why do we see like I still think Denver is
Speaker 2: the team that I would pick in a matchup between
Speaker 2: these two teams and a postseason series. Right, most people
Speaker 2: I think would agree with me. Why because we believe
Speaker 2: Denver gets better shots. Right, That's the whole thing with Denver.
Speaker 2: If I take Denver, I'm taking the team that most
Speaker 2: likely is going to get better shots throughout the course
Speaker 2: of a seven game series. And if it's a lot
Speaker 2: of Kevin Rant Devin Booker pull up jump shots like
Speaker 2: it was last year, then yeah, Denver's gonna get much
Speaker 2: better shots. And on the games when Phoenix makes all
Speaker 2: their pull up jumpers, they're gonna win. But if Phoenix
Speaker 2: is existing in rotation, I should say keeping Denver in
Speaker 2: rotation and getting really good driving kick looks for really
Speaker 2: good offensive players, all of a sudden, Phoenix's shot quality
Speaker 2: goes like this. And this is not the same team
Speaker 2: that Phoenix was last year. There's a lot more offensive
Speaker 2: firepower on this Phoenix Suns team. And so that's the
Speaker 2: thing is like, if they can keep Denver in rotation
Speaker 2: and their shot quality goes up to where the tough
Speaker 2: shots are more of like counters and coverage beaters, whereas
Speaker 2: the majority of their shots are coming like what you
Speaker 2: saw in that third quarter run where it's like, you know,
Speaker 2: get us out pushing transition, wide open three for somebody,
Speaker 2: get a you know, bring Yokich up to the ball,
Speaker 2: get him in rotation. There's another wide open corner three
Speaker 2: for Aaron Gordon, another wide up in corner three for
Speaker 2: you know, Grayson Allen or whoever. It is like when
Speaker 2: they're getting those high quality shots, they can kind of
Speaker 2: mitigate that gap there, Right. And so that's what I
Speaker 2: noticed on tape that that really kind of that that
Speaker 2: I think bodes well for Phoenix in that matchup is
Speaker 2: they can get good shots against Denver, not super tough
Speaker 2: contested shots. They can get good shots against Denver, and
Speaker 2: they've had extended stretches of that. But we've seen Denver
Speaker 2: also defend them better even in the context of this season,
Speaker 2: namely in the fourth quarter of their matchup, the last
Speaker 2: time Phoenix won in overtime. Right, And so this is
Speaker 2: where I look at Denver's adjustments running the deeper drop,
Speaker 2: meaning don't bring Yokic up to the level. Yeah, you're
Speaker 2: gonna have a sacrifice there. Kevin Durant's gonna be more comfortable,
Speaker 2: Devin Booker is gonna be more comfortable. Those guys are
Speaker 2: gonna get some more of those easier pull up jump
Speaker 2: shots that they can get in those coverages. Right, But
Speaker 2: in that case, you're helping yourself on the defensive glass
Speaker 2: by staying not just keeping Yokic closer to the rim,
Speaker 2: but also just kind of having everybody more matched up.
Speaker 2: And two, you keep the ball from popping around and
Speaker 2: getting really easy catch and shoot looks right, which I
Speaker 2: think are gonna be more dangerous to Denver than tough
Speaker 2: shot making from Phoenix. I think Phoenix can beat Denver
Speaker 2: a couple of times on tough shot making. I don't
Speaker 2: think they can beat him four times out of seven
Speaker 2: with tough shot making right less help like we talked
Speaker 2: about earlier with Reggie Jackson, and again staying out of
Speaker 2: rotation to keep clean rebounding matchups and making Phoenix speach
Speaker 2: you with tough shot making. So again, I think there
Speaker 2: are adjustments that can be made there. But if Denver
Speaker 2: gets into rotation constantly against Phoenix, I think there's a
Speaker 2: chance that they could get out shot in a series. Secondly,
Speaker 2: this is another major takeaway that I had on the
Speaker 2: Phoenix side. Kevin Durant looks substantially more comfortable working against
Speaker 2: Aaron Gordon as a primary defender in this year than
Speaker 2: I noticed in the playoffs last year. Now there's reasons
Speaker 2: for that. Like I said, Phoenix has substantially more offensive
Speaker 2: talent now, but a lot of it also has to
Speaker 2: do is just more variety offensively. There's a lot of
Speaker 2: pick and roll with Kevin Durant last year against Aaron Gordon,
Speaker 2: a lot of pick and roll, a lot of ISO.
Speaker 2: Kevin Durant's attacking so much more in closeout situations now,
Speaker 2: and like he can actually kind of do some damage
Speaker 2: to Aaron Gordon in space. He's a little quicker than it,
Speaker 2: which I think is interesting. And so I just think
Speaker 2: I think you've seen probably Kevin Durant's two best games
Speaker 2: against Aaron Gordon in the last couple of years. In
Speaker 2: this season. I don't remember a specific he had a
Speaker 2: he had some big box score games he had to
Speaker 2: He had thirty nine in Game three or Game four
Speaker 2: of the of the Denver series last year, but he
Speaker 2: wasn't particularly efficient. This kind of like efficient shot making
Speaker 2: and scoring from Kevin Durant against Aaron Gordon is kind
Speaker 2: of a different thing than we saw last year. And
Speaker 2: I think that that's super encouraging. And then lastly the
Speaker 2: third one, Dad east Young looks like a legitimate playoff weapon.
Speaker 2: It's six points and nine rebounds in eighteen minutes. These
Speaker 2: sons were plus fifteen in those minutes. So far that
Speaker 2: Young Kevin Durant front court with no center, which they
Speaker 2: went to for a little bit in that if I
Speaker 2: remember correctly, he was in the early fourth quarter stretch.
Speaker 2: But with those two guys on the floor, no center,
Speaker 2: and just under fifty possessions plus sixteen net rating, so
Speaker 2: outscoring teams by sixteen points per one hundred possessions. Great
Speaker 2: on both ends of the floor. That group is grabbing
Speaker 2: thirty seven percent of available offensive rebounds. Bad Young himself
Speaker 2: had four offensive rebounds in that game against Denver. He
Speaker 2: brings an entirely different look than some of these other
Speaker 2: role players that Phoenix has rolled out there over the
Speaker 2: course of the year. The big one to me is
Speaker 2: that contested rebounding. And so there's a specific play that
Speaker 2: I wanted to kind of talk to you guys about
Speaker 2: to kind of demonstrate the advantage of having a guy
Speaker 2: that can help in these particular situations. So it's a
Speaker 2: fourth quarter possession. It's early fourth. I want to say
Speaker 2: Denver's up or Phoenix is up either nine or eleven
Speaker 2: at this point. It's right around that double figures point.
Speaker 2: Aaron Gordon gets Eric Gordon on a switch in the
Speaker 2: post posted up on the left block, and Aaron Gordon
Speaker 2: kind of meanders his way into the lane and he
Speaker 2: pulls bull bull on a baseline double team, so bab
Speaker 2: Bobo come it comes over on the baseline side. Aaron
Speaker 2: Gordon identifies Christian Brown as the cutter there, hits Christian Brown.
Speaker 2: Christian Brown ends up dribbling out to the three point
Speaker 2: line and taking a three, not obviously a great shot
Speaker 2: out of a double team, but a shot. However, they're
Speaker 2: still an advantage there. Aaron Gordon still has Eric Gordon
Speaker 2: on him underneath the basket. How many times this season
Speaker 2: have we seen Eric Gordon do damage on the offensive
Speaker 2: glass with a smaller defender there because double teams or
Speaker 2: mismatches or whatever or switches, cross matches, whatever it is
Speaker 2: is pulled the bigger defenders away from the basket and
Speaker 2: left Aaron Gordon down there by himself. How many times
Speaker 2: have we seen that? That's a huge staple of Denver's offense.
Speaker 2: But here's the thing that Young comes flying in and
Speaker 2: even though Aaron Gordon goes way over the top of
Speaker 2: Eric Gordon and he's there to grab the ball, that
Speaker 2: Young just comes in and snatches it out of his hand.
Speaker 2: That's a huge advantage. To put it simply, that Young
Speaker 2: raises the physical profile of those and gives them an
Speaker 2: option to go to that brings more physicality to the table.
Speaker 2: So now kind of to put a bow on all that, again,
Speaker 2: weird game, too many important missing pieces to really view
Speaker 2: that as like an accurate description of what those matchups
Speaker 2: will look like. However, I do think Phoenix does present
Speaker 2: some legitimate issues for Denver. Their aggregate offensive talent around
Speaker 2: the board can really spread Denver out in a way
Speaker 2: that makes it tougher for them, and they have the
Speaker 2: star talent to get Denver into rotation consistently and again Denver,
Speaker 2: I've seen Denver be really good in rotation. I've seen
Speaker 2: Denver run different coverages where they keep you Okie closer,
Speaker 2: more conservative coverages where they stay out of rotation. Again,
Speaker 2: I would pick Denver to win a seven game series
Speaker 2: against Phoenix, but I think Phoenix is demonstrating the little
Speaker 2: things that they can do that put Denver into some
Speaker 2: predicaments that give them some advantages, and I think it's
Speaker 2: worth keeping an eye on as we get into that postseason.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: Second biggest takeaway from my time away on vacation gonna
Speaker 2: be a little bit more surface level the rest of
Speaker 2: the way, because, like I said, I was really just
Speaker 2: trying to take the time to enjoy hanging out with
Speaker 2: my wife and with her family for a little bit.
Speaker 2: Number two, the Dallas Mavericks are showing signs of real
Speaker 2: championship contention. They had a little bit of an easy
Speaker 2: stretch in their schedule last week. They had three wins
Speaker 2: against the Spurs and the Jazz, But then they roll
Speaker 2: up into Sacramento for a super important game for seeding,
Speaker 2: and it's close for a little over two quarters, and
Speaker 2: then they just beat the living shit out of them.
Speaker 2: Now Dallas is in commanding position for the sixth seed
Speaker 2: and they're striking distance of the five seed. Biggest positive
Speaker 2: sign though, we remember they went on that East Coast
Speaker 2: road trip and just got sliced and diced by everybody
Speaker 2: they defended before the trip. Then they went on the
Speaker 2: trip and they could not guard a soul. Right. Then
Speaker 2: they come home and they had a couple of other
Speaker 2: bad losses. Right. I think the Pacers ended up getting
Speaker 2: at home similar type of game. But then they go up,
Speaker 2: they snap back into against the Heat, have a good
Speaker 2: defensive night. In their ten games since the miamiing game,
Speaker 2: one zero six point five defensive rating. That's the second
Speaker 2: best mark in the league over that span, in twelve
Speaker 2: in defensive rebounding, which is one of their better stretches
Speaker 2: of defensive rebounding that we've seen over the course of
Speaker 2: the season. We've talked about this with a bunch of
Speaker 2: different teams around the league this year, and there's a
Speaker 2: bunch of teams that kind of fit into this mold. Right,
Speaker 2: Sacramento fits into this mold, Dallas fits into this mold.
Speaker 2: The Lakers kind of fit into this mold. Milwaukee kind
Speaker 2: of fits into this mold. These are teams that, like
Speaker 2: they're jeckaling hide on the on the details, right. If
Speaker 2: you catch the Mavericks on the right night, you're like, man,
Speaker 2: this guys have some real athletes on the perimeter. They
Speaker 2: got some athletes under the rim. Their stars are trying
Speaker 2: hard and doing their job, like they can defend. Same
Speaker 2: thing goes for Milwaukee. Catch them on the right night
Speaker 2: when dam and Malik Beasley are really turning it up
Speaker 2: at the point of attack, and in general they're just
Speaker 2: engaged defensively. They look really good defensively. Lakers, same sort
Speaker 2: of thing, right, Kings. Gosh, the Kings have had some
Speaker 2: of the most impressive two way performances I've seen in
Speaker 2: the league this year. But again, it's about consistency and habits,
Speaker 2: and I'm seeing now a ten game stretch, a significant
Speaker 2: chunk of the season where the MAVs are really defending
Speaker 2: and really rebounding. And this has been an extended stretch now,
Speaker 2: dating back to before the Eastern Conference road trip, this
Speaker 2: has been a thing We're more often than not, Dallas
Speaker 2: has been bringing those defensive details to the equation. And again,
Speaker 2: like everything about we know what Luca and Kyrie can
Speaker 2: do as shot creators. We saw what they did to
Speaker 2: Sacramento in that third quarter run. But that's only one
Speaker 2: part of this. That physical imposition on the game is
Speaker 2: a massive element there. It is a prerequisite you have
Speaker 2: to do it. Denver was a mediocre defense a lot
Speaker 2: of the year last year. What were they when they
Speaker 2: got into the postseason, they were an elite defense. You
Speaker 2: don't win out executing teams on one end of the floor,
Speaker 2: you win out executing teams on two ends of the floor. Right,
Speaker 2: So I think that this is just I always look
Speaker 2: habits is the big like the thing that you lean
Speaker 2: on when the shit hits the fan, right, And the
Speaker 2: best way to establish habits is over an extended span
Speaker 2: of regular season basketball, putting in that attention to detail.
Speaker 2: And Dallas is doing that. That's a major box for
Speaker 2: me to check on the path to championship contention. Really
Speaker 2: really impressive showing from Dallas as of late number three.
Speaker 2: This is one that's going to really piss people off,
Speaker 2: but hey, we're just gonna have some fun with it.
Speaker 2: The Bucks and Lakers are two very similar teams playing
Speaker 2: in two very different conferences, so obviously the both teams
Speaker 2: are playing well right now. The Bucks went out West
Speaker 2: and got smashed by everybody, But they came home and
Speaker 2: they got a couple of impressive wins. They beat the
Speaker 2: Thunder and the Suns in blowout fashion at home. Lakers
Speaker 2: currently on a five game winning streak. A huge win
Speaker 2: in Milwaukee without Lebron James, and then a big one
Speaker 2: without Anthony Davis in Memphis. Now they're making a real
Speaker 2: run at that eight seed. Now, before anybody says anything,
Speaker 2: I know what everyone's gonna say, Jason, that's insane. The
Speaker 2: Bucks are two seeds, the Lakers are fighting for the
Speaker 2: play and how could you possibly consider them to be similar? Well,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the similarities first, then we'll go
Speaker 2: into the differences. First of all, both teams have two superstars.
Speaker 2: Both teams kind of considered both of those stars considered,
Speaker 2: you know, comfortably top fifteen. Obviously, both Dame and Lebron
Speaker 2: are down a level from where their original reputation was,
Speaker 2: but they're both considered kind of top fifteen. And then
Speaker 2: obviously Giannis is better than all of those guys. But
Speaker 2: Anthony Davis and Giannis are both considered in like that
Speaker 2: superstar tier. Right, So you both got two superstar led teams, right,
Speaker 2: You both have massive front lines Jiannis and Brook Lopez,
Speaker 2: Lebron James and Anthony Davis. Both teams are weak at
Speaker 2: the point of attack. Defensively, Now, the Lakers have a
Speaker 2: good option coming back in Jared Vanderbilt. But with Jared
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt out of the equation. They kind of look a
Speaker 2: lot like Milwaukee at the point of attack right and
Speaker 2: now Milwaukee is a similar issue with the Patrick Beverley injury.
Speaker 2: The Bucks have twenty five wins against five hundred d
Speaker 2: better teams. The Lakers have twenty four wins against five
Speaker 2: hundred better teams. Both teams are elite against the great
Speaker 2: teams and mediocre against the mediocre teams. For example, both
Speaker 2: the Bucks and the Lakers are top five in net
Speaker 2: rating against teams in the top ten in point differential.
Speaker 2: According to Cleaning the Glass, the Lakers have seventeen such
Speaker 2: wins against teams in the top ten in point differential,
Speaker 2: which is the most in the league. For comparison, the
Speaker 2: Celtics have only thirteen such wins. To give you an idea,
Speaker 2: the Lakers have played the toughest schedule in the NBA
Speaker 2: this year, almost fifty two percent opponent winning percentage. Both
Speaker 2: teams are bottom twelve in net rating against teams in
Speaker 2: the middle ten of point differential. So, Lakers fans, if
Speaker 2: it felt like to you that the Lakers show up
Speaker 2: for big games and then all the middle of the
Speaker 2: pack teams, they're kind of bad or mediocre, same exact
Speaker 2: thing Bucks fans have been dealing with. They've been really
Speaker 2: good against the top of the league, pretty mediocre against
Speaker 2: the middle of the team middle of the league. Both
Speaker 2: teams are awesome in the clutch. Both the Lakers and
Speaker 2: Bucks are top five in clutch win percentage and total
Speaker 2: clutch wins. So a ton of similarities between the Bucks
Speaker 2: and the Lakers. So Jason, why are the Bucks the
Speaker 2: two seed in the Lakers the nine seed? Because the
Speaker 2: Eastern Conference is absolutely horrifically bad at the bottom. The
Speaker 2: West has completely an utterly cleaned house against the East
Speaker 2: in cross conference matchups this year. The scheduling is just
Speaker 2: to give you an idea, because you play the bottom
Speaker 2: teams in your you you play fifty two what's it,
Speaker 2: fifty two of your eighty two games against your own conference.
Speaker 2: So it makes this a substantial difference on the strength
Speaker 2: of schedule, right to give you an idea, Three of
Speaker 2: the four worst records in the league or in the
Speaker 2: Eastern Conference, and the Bucks are ten and zher in
Speaker 2: those games Charlotte Detroit Washington Bucks are ten and oh
Speaker 2: the Lakers don't get to play Charlotte Detroit and Washington
Speaker 2: that often they just don't I I'm not mistaken. I
Speaker 2: think the Bucks have two more matchups with Washington just
Speaker 2: this year. If they're one of those teams, I can't
Speaker 2: remember who it is, but they have a couple more
Speaker 2: matchups just this year against those teams. The Lakers have
Speaker 2: played the office schedule in the league this year. The
Speaker 2: Bucks have played the eighteenth toughest schedule in the league
Speaker 2: this year. To put it more simply, the Bucks have
Speaker 2: forty six wins. The Lakers have forty one wins. But
Speaker 2: the Bucks have played an additional five games against below
Speaker 2: five hundred opponents. That's the difference. That's the difference between
Speaker 2: these two teams. Think about that, Think about the way
Speaker 2: the Lakers are perceived. I still every single day get
Speaker 2: countless YouTube comments about how the Lakers are so bad
Speaker 2: and no team in NBA history would get talked about
Speaker 2: this much. As a nine seed. They literally have the
Speaker 2: most wins against top ten teams in the league. They
Speaker 2: have seventeen of them. They have one fewer win against
Speaker 2: five hundred better teams than the Bucks. They have countless
Speaker 2: massive national TV wins against really high level teams. They've
Speaker 2: played the toughest league schedule in the league. They just
Speaker 2: have a really difficult conference, and they went three to
Speaker 2: ten for a brief stretch after the Ncason Tournament when
Speaker 2: Darvin ham literally benched three of their five highest paid
Speaker 2: players for no fucking reason. Okay, that's why the Lakers
Speaker 2: are perceived. They're perceived. Now. Do I think the Lakers
Speaker 2: are a top tier championship contender. No, But I don't
Speaker 2: think the Bucks are either. I think they're more or
Speaker 2: less the same. They're in that tier below the teams
Speaker 2: at the top of the league. Both of them have
Speaker 2: real championship potential, but they've got to improve in certain areas.
Speaker 2: Both need to get healthy too. That the Bucks in
Speaker 2: the Lakers, it's so funny to me because that is
Speaker 2: a textbook example of the weakness in the Eastern Conference
Speaker 2: at the bottom, and how that just completely turns everybody
Speaker 2: into standings watchers and they miss what's happening right in
Speaker 2: front of them. The Lakers are every bit as good
Speaker 2: at basketball as the Milwaukee Bucks. The difference is one
Speaker 2: team ratcheted up a bunch of easy wins against bad
Speaker 2: teams at the bottom, and so they look substantially better
Speaker 2: in the standings on the Lakers front before we move on,
Speaker 2: I think like this this latest stretch had Honestly, it
Speaker 2: was fun watching as a fan on vacation. Obviously, I
Speaker 2: was actually talking about with my wife about this, Like,
Speaker 2: I so much of what I do has, you know,
Speaker 2: the work element to it, right, even last year, just
Speaker 2: as a as someone rooting for the Lakers, it was
Speaker 2: kind of a pain in the ass having to like
Speaker 2: navigate that while also trying to cover them fairly in
Speaker 2: the show, right and uh, and obviously I've never tried
Speaker 2: to hide from my biases there. I'm just trying to
Speaker 2: tell you guys, I'm a Lakers fan. Obviously I have
Speaker 2: a rooting interest there, but at the same time, I'm
Speaker 2: not like the kind of like blind follower in the
Speaker 2: sense that all you Lakers fans know. I've been talking
Speaker 2: endless shit about the Lakers this year because they're a
Speaker 2: team that frustrates me on so many different levels. But
Speaker 2: one of the things that's really stood out to me,
Speaker 2: and just getting to watch as a fan was so
Speaker 2: fun because on this trip, like I literally was just
Speaker 2: kicking back, you know, having a couple of drinks with
Speaker 2: my wife watching the game. It just was more enjoyable.
Speaker 2: It was enjoyable in a different way to just do
Speaker 2: it as a fan, and that Bucks game was so
Speaker 2: much fun, Like just impressive resilience. Some of the craziest
Speaker 2: plays I've ever seen, like Spencer Dinwoodie when he couldn't
Speaker 2: buy a bucket all game, just like fully up in
Speaker 2: transition from the three point line and sticking that above
Speaker 2: the break three. That was insane. Austin Reeves that might
Speaker 2: have been his very best game as a professional basketball player.
Speaker 2: That was insane. The big one to me, though, that's
Speaker 2: really standing out to me about this Lakers team is
Speaker 2: they're like, legitimately just super hard to guard, which I
Speaker 2: never would have thought I would say this at the
Speaker 2: beginning of this season, because this has been a mediocre
Speaker 2: offensive team the entire time I've known them, and I
Speaker 2: mean the Lebron ad era. They were mediocre offensively in
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen. They were okay to good in the twenty
Speaker 2: twenty season, but they weren't particularly good in the half court.
Speaker 2: They were pretty bad in twenty twenty one, They are
Speaker 2: pretty bad in twenty twenty two, they were pretty bad
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three, and they've been pretty bad most
Speaker 2: of this year like that, like that, like to start
Speaker 2: this year right. That's what I've known watching the Lebron
Speaker 2: ad Lakers since basically January, the beginning of the year.
Speaker 2: They've been an awesome offense. They're one of the best
Speaker 2: three point shooting teams in the league. They have tons
Speaker 2: of different kinds of shot creation. It's like Austin Reeves
Speaker 2: can get hot at any given night. Daniel Russell can
Speaker 2: get hot at any given night. Ruyacha Mura in the
Speaker 2: starting lineup has presented a bunch of issues for teams
Speaker 2: where it's like, Okay, I need a big guy to
Speaker 2: guard Anthony Davis. Okay, here he is. I need a
Speaker 2: big guy who was pretty fast to guard Lebron James, okay, cool.
Speaker 2: I need point of attack defenders to deal with Austin
Speaker 2: Reeves and Danzel Russell and ball screens, okay, cool, who's
Speaker 2: guarding Ruie. Who's guarding Rueie. He's getting guarded by the
Speaker 2: weakest defender every single game, and he's cooking teams, and
Speaker 2: not only on the ball too, because he can beat
Speaker 2: guys in io and post up situations on the ball,
Speaker 2: but he also can do it just spotting up, like
Speaker 2: He's been a really good spot up player this year,
Speaker 2: not just shooting threes but attacking closeouts. He's been a
Speaker 2: great transition athlete as well. Obviously it's not the ideal configuration,
Speaker 2: and when Jared Vanderbilt comes back, I think he should start,
Speaker 2: and then I would just play Ruey similar minutes coming
Speaker 2: off the bench. But like that presents a whole other
Speaker 2: set of issues for teams. Everyone's getting better. Daniel Russell
Speaker 2: is a substantially better player now than he was to
Speaker 2: start the season. Austin Reeves is substantially better player now
Speaker 2: than he was to start the season. He's looking like
Speaker 2: even though he's not quite to the level of production
Speaker 2: he was at in the postseason last year, he is
Speaker 2: doing at a higher level this year in a more
Speaker 2: difficult role alongside a bunch of other pieces. This is
Speaker 2: not brute force spread the floor or Austin plays pick
Speaker 2: and roll. He's doing this in the flow of the
Speaker 2: offense with everybody, Anthony Davis passing out of the post
Speaker 2: better than ever before, Lebron James having host a better
Speaker 2: offensive season by a mile than he did last year.
Speaker 2: This is a good offense. This is a really good offense,
Speaker 2: and again, I don't think they have any chance to
Speaker 2: win the title unless they can kind of round some
Speaker 2: things out defensively. Austin Reeves has been really good at
Speaker 2: the point of attack, even though he's been given some
Speaker 2: really tough assignments that he really has no business taken
Speaker 2: care of. But he's done a good job. But that
Speaker 2: he did an awesome job on Dame the other night.
Speaker 2: But like when you slot Jared Vanderbilt in there and
Speaker 2: put everybody back down in the appropriate defensive roles, they
Speaker 2: can get their defense even in the same stratosphere as
Speaker 2: their offense. They can get up in that ten to
Speaker 2: fifteen range as a defense when they get healthy. That's
Speaker 2: where their puncher's chances. Again, I know, I'm a fan.
Speaker 2: I know that it's foolishness to consider the Lakers on
Speaker 2: the same tier as the teams at the top of
Speaker 2: the league, and I don't. But I do think they're
Speaker 2: every bit as good as everybody that's below them, below
Speaker 2: that Boston Denver tier, and I think they've shown it
Speaker 2: in a lot of real ways that they're not getting
Speaker 2: credit for this year. A really tough Western Conference, in
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks where they were dogshit has completely
Speaker 2: changed the perception around about the Lakers around the league,
Speaker 2: and I think that they're worth at least paying attention
Speaker 2: to here down the stretch. All right. Lastly, before we
Speaker 2: get out of here today, my fourth biggest takeaway, the
Speaker 2: Warriors looked completely dead to rights and then they saved
Speaker 2: their season. You know, I kind of you know, pulled
Speaker 2: aside this part of their schedule as a vulnerability for
Speaker 2: the war is just simply because of the type of
Speaker 2: personnel they were going against. Teams that have really good, physical,
Speaker 2: strong perimeter defenders that can make Steph work hard, can
Speaker 2: expose the issues that the Warriors having down the roster
Speaker 2: shot creation, and I had a feeling that this stretch
Speaker 2: would cause them some issues, and it did. But the
Speaker 2: last two games are not easy matchups on that front either.
Speaker 2: Miami has athletes on the perimeter that they can throw
Speaker 2: at Steph. The Orlando Magic have arguably the best young
Speaker 2: guard defender in the league in Jalen Sucks. And so
Speaker 2: these were games that I kind of had my eye
Speaker 2: on as where it could have gone really south. And
Speaker 2: then to make it matters worse, Houston can't lose, you know,
Speaker 2: So like it was looking like a danger zone. And
Speaker 2: this is where you know, I have such an appreciation
Speaker 2: for guys like Steph Curry, and both Steph and Lebron
Speaker 2: have had stretches like this in the last couple of years,
Speaker 2: and it's helped, you know, kind of reinforce the way
Speaker 2: that I feel about them as players, because these are
Speaker 2: not These are not easy teams to believe in looking
Speaker 2: back to last year's Lakers when that team looked dead
Speaker 2: to rights, and even this year and then this year's Warriors. Obviously,
Speaker 2: these are not teams where it's like you're not like
Speaker 2: like when Jokic is sitting at home right now, he knows, like,
Speaker 2: if I hit the jets and I play to my capability,
Speaker 2: we're gonna get the trophy. Like that's the confidence that
Speaker 2: Jokic has in his group, right. And I don't think
Speaker 2: Lebron Or's stepf have any delusions of grandeur. I don't
Speaker 2: think they're sitting around in their houses going like, we
Speaker 2: got ourselves a real title, a real title threat here.
Speaker 2: I think they think, like we can win, but man, like,
Speaker 2: we got some strengths and we got some weaknesses, right,
Speaker 2: And what's cool about that is like both of them
Speaker 2: have responded to that by trying to win anyway. It
Speaker 2: would have been so easy after that last sequence to
Speaker 2: just like go the rope, and no they didn't. Even
Speaker 2: just in that Orlando Magic game, Draymond Green gets four
Speaker 2: minutes into the game, completely absurd, completely unacceptable. At some point,
Speaker 2: Draymond Green has to understand that his team meets him
Speaker 2: on the floor and there is absolutely no excuse to
Speaker 2: continually be getting yourself kicked out of these games, and
Speaker 2: I would imagine Draymond would agree, completely unacceptable. I totally
Speaker 2: understood why Steph was so upset, but like, even then,
Speaker 2: it would have been so easy to just be like,
Speaker 2: not our night, really good Orlando Magic team on the road,
Speaker 2: tough matchup for us, not our night. But no, that's
Speaker 2: not what happened. And like it was a classic kind
Speaker 2: of battle too, because Steph what he goes six for
Speaker 2: eighteen and the he was obviously made a three at
Speaker 2: the end of the game that kind of tied that together.
Speaker 2: Was even worse before then, and they got some huge
Speaker 2: contributions out of Andrew Wiggins. I thought that was probably
Speaker 2: his best game since the twenty twenty two playoff run.
Speaker 2: Really got going in the with the ball in his
Speaker 2: hands there in that fourth quarter started with a kickout three,
Speaker 2: Steph got blitzed on the side of the floor and
Speaker 2: Andrew Wiggins stuck that above the break three on the
Speaker 2: left side. But after that it was all Wiggins on
Speaker 2: the ball, like running those inverted ball screen actions where
Speaker 2: like again, the so Steph sets the ball screen, nobody
Speaker 2: who's guarding Steph wants to hedge or help or anything
Speaker 2: because his job is guards Steph at all costs, right,
Speaker 2: And so it essentially operates as a really, really a
Speaker 2: great screening action because as long as Steph sets a
Speaker 2: good screen on the on ball defender, there's nobody that's
Speaker 2: gonna be waiting on the other side of that screen.
Speaker 2: As a matter of fact, Orlando tried switching it late
Speaker 2: and then Wiggins ended up just bowllying his way to
Speaker 2: the basket out of the post. It was a really,
Speaker 2: really impressive effort from Wiggins, And honestly, like that's gonna
Speaker 2: be the big kind of like swing factor for whether
Speaker 2: or not Golden State can make a real meaningful playoff
Speaker 2: run versus something that is less impressive. It's gonna be
Speaker 2: that legitimate secondary offensive initiator. Maybe it's Wiggins, maybe it's Comingo,
Speaker 2: maybe it's Chris Paul, maybe it's Clay, But like, someone
Speaker 2: needs to become consistent on that front, because what ends
Speaker 2: up happening is you have a night like that and
Speaker 2: Kamina is a little iffy, and Wiggins as a little ify
Speaker 2: and Klays a little iffy, the Warriors just lose. They
Speaker 2: just lose because they don't have that consistency in that group.
Speaker 2: And so I thought that was a really encouraging sign.
Speaker 2: But again, I thought, when you saw the emotion from
Speaker 2: Steph from when Draymond got suspended or ejected to when
Speaker 2: he hit the big shot at the end of the game,
Speaker 2: you can tell we might, as fans, analysts, whatever, be like,
Speaker 2: this Warriors team don't really have a great chance, and
Speaker 2: that for the record, that's the truth. But Steph isn't
Speaker 2: accepting that as an answer. And again, like a lot
Speaker 2: of times, we look at the mountaintop moments as the
Speaker 2: defining characteristics of these guys. We look at Steph hoisting
Speaker 2: the trophy, Kde hoisting the trophy, Lebron hoisting the trophy,
Speaker 2: and we're like, these are the moments that define them
Speaker 2: as their best. And I tend to disagree. I think
Speaker 2: those are an important part of it. But all of
Speaker 2: these different moments demonstrative player's greatness throughout the entire process
Speaker 2: from start to finish, including like the years where your
Speaker 2: team doesn't really have it. What are you showing in
Speaker 2: those situations? You know? This is actually the biggest reason
Speaker 2: why I've said Steph is the best leader of this
Speaker 2: particular era. I don't think Steph rides the highs and
Speaker 2: lows as much as other As much as other leaders do,
Speaker 2: he does a good job of keeping an even keel
Speaker 2: and helping trying to bring limited teams up and helping
Speaker 2: to make sure that really good teams don't get overconfident.
Speaker 2: And again, like, I think that this has been one
Speaker 2: of my favorite seasons rooting for him because a lot
Speaker 2: of shit is hit the fan in so many different
Speaker 2: ways in the competition from Steph has just shined through
Speaker 2: as he's tried to make it work. I had a
Speaker 2: radio hit in San Francisco. I want to say it
Speaker 2: was last Wednesday, and there was a fan on the
Speaker 2: on the show that just simply asked, like, hey, Jason,
Speaker 2: give me some you know, kind of silver lining, some
Speaker 2: sort of like positive thing to hang on to. Well,
Speaker 2: all of this is down, and I said kind of
Speaker 2: what I said at the top, which is this particular
Speaker 2: stretch of their schedule is really tough and they just
Speaker 2: need to survive it. And honestly, like getting those wins overheat,
Speaker 2: over the heat and magic, that's them surviving it. Now,
Speaker 2: five of their last ten games are against teams that
Speaker 2: are below five hundred. They've had to add matchups against
Speaker 2: the Lakers and Rockets to either secure position or to
Speaker 2: fight for more position. And these guys believe. From the
Speaker 2: coaching staff to the stars down the roster, they believe.
Speaker 2: And so like again, it's not I'm not going to
Speaker 2: sit here and lie to you, guys. I don't think
Speaker 2: that the Warriors have legitimate championship potential, but I think
Speaker 2: that they're capable of having a fun playoff run. And
Speaker 2: I think we'd be foolish to count them out simply
Speaker 2: because of the fact that proven winners at the top
Speaker 2: are not going to let go of the rope. And
Speaker 2: as long as they hang onto that rope and they
Speaker 2: get meaningful contributions from other players down the roster, they
Speaker 2: have the potential to make some noise, all right, guys,
Speaker 2: that is all I have for today. Like I said,
Speaker 2: we're gonna end up taking the rest of the weekend
Speaker 2: off to enjoy the up n CNAA tournament. We'll be
Speaker 2: back on Monday with some instant reaction content as well
Speaker 2: as a power rankings video. Again, we're also gonna stepping
Speaker 2: up our film breakdowns at that point as well. I
Speaker 2: appreciate you, guys.
Speaker 1: I'll see you on Monday.
Speaker 2: The Volume