WEBVTT - Thanksgiving Best NFL Bets | Top Picks, Props, and Predictions (Ep. 603) 0:00:01.960 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's down to place 0:00:04.200 --> 0:00:06.920 your bets. It's me Joey p joe Pisapia and this 0:00:07.480 --> 0:00:10.600 is the VP NFL Thanksgiving Special. That's right, Just like 0:00:10.680 --> 0:00:14.360 Randy Marsh, we've been working on a very special special 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:18.200 for you for Thanksgiving. You're sitting around with your family, overeating, 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:21.320 arguing about well, probably everything. The best thing you can 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:24.120 do is just put together some bets, sit back, watch 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:26.360 some games and make some money. And to help us 0:00:26.400 --> 0:00:28.600 get the right bets at the right time. Of course, 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:30.880 two of my best friends, Andrew Erics in the Undertaker 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:33.239 and my boy Scott Bogman, and we're going to go 0:00:33.280 --> 0:00:35.360 through the games one by one and then talk about 0:00:35.360 --> 0:00:37.960 some of the props too. But first to the games. 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:39.839 If you have it already, make sure you download the 0:00:39.880 --> 0:00:44.120 Betting Pros app again. Sink your sportsbooks for free, everybody, 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:47.120 and you get the trial going on right now of 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:50.479 the premium tools over at Betting Pros. That's what you 0:00:50.520 --> 0:00:52.640 want to do, and don't forget we're also still giving 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:55.240 away free stuff. Still a few days left, not many, 0:00:55.560 --> 0:00:59.320 but the Mike Evans signed Buccaneers helmet is still up 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:01.520 for grabs so Pristine auction dot com. 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All right, 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:30.920 let's start things off here with the Detroit Lions and 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:33.559 the Chicago Bears. Ten and a half is the number 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:36.320 year in favor of the Detroit Lions. Forty eight and 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:38.600 a half is the number here of the total plus 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:41.399 four thirty four Chicago Bears upset. If there's one thing 0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:43.640 I think, boys, that we've learned in I've said it 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:45.480 on these shows in the last few times we've had 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:49.880 double digit spreads against the Lions. Here where the Lions 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:53.440 take care of business. Dan Campbell does not understand the 0:01:53.440 --> 0:01:57.320 word trap game. He doesn't understand the words let up breaks. 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:00.320 His cars have none, It's all just gas. And then 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:02.760 sometimes he slows down just enough to get back into 0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:05.320 his garage at night. So, Bogs, are you comfortable with 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:06.920 the ten and a half? I want to start there? 0:02:07.680 --> 0:02:12.040 No, not really, I'm gonna take I'm gonna take the 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:16.120 points here. Look, it's it's a Thursday game. It's a 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:18.240 weird game. And I actually kind of like the way 0:02:18.320 --> 0:02:20.920 Chicago has been playing since making this change at OC 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:25.160 And Yeah, I think we've seen Caleb Williams put together 0:02:25.200 --> 0:02:27.440 some decent drives here. He should have had a game 0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:30.320 winning drive against Washington and the hail Mary ruined that. 0:02:30.560 --> 0:02:33.200 He should have had a game winning drive against the 0:02:33.240 --> 0:02:36.240 Packers and the field goal got blocked and he had 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:39.000 a drive to come back inside the game last week. 0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:42.320 I think, Uh, Chicago's been competitive, They've been keeping it close. 0:02:42.400 --> 0:02:43.840 He's just been on the wrong end of the stick 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:45.840 last couple of weeks. Doesn't mean that that's how it's 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:50.000 gonna play. Like I say every single week for Thursday, 0:02:50.400 --> 0:02:53.520 don't play the game, lay the props The games are weird, 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:57.720 they're strange, they can get lopsided, but I like Chicago and. 0:02:57.760 --> 0:03:00.000 This one plus the play. They agree typically with you. 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:03.120 The games can get weird, but look, Dan Campbell, I 0:03:03.160 --> 0:03:04.919 don't know, I feel comfortable with these points. Every time 0:03:04.919 --> 0:03:07.000 they get one of these slapp nut teams coming in, 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:08.440 they're just way out of their I. 0:03:08.440 --> 0:03:12.160 Just don't think Chicago's is not like Jacksonville. Okay, but 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:14.440 I don't think Chicago's one of those teams Titans. 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:18.240 Well, neither of those teams are division opponents their division. 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:21.720 That's that that's the route you want to take, all right, 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:24.560 americ I feel you're building a narrative. Go ahead, tell 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:25.080 me why I'm not. 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:26.959 I'm not pickingside because it's a divisional matchup. 0:03:26.960 --> 0:03:28.440 I'm not going I'm not going to fall into the 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:31.560 traffic Commanders Cowboys from last week where it's some weird, 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:34.160 wacky divisional games Steelers Browns on Thursday night. 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:34.920 I'm not doing this. 0:03:35.280 --> 0:03:37.360 So I'm just taking the over because we're playing this 0:03:37.400 --> 0:03:39.400 game in Detroit, and this is where game, this is 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:43.800 where point totals thrive and they fly above soar into 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:47.360 the clouds. So looking at the average children the Lion's 0:03:47.480 --> 0:03:50.119 last twenty four home games, so this is going back 0:03:50.320 --> 0:03:54.000 season after season, the average has been nearly fifty five points. 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:56.560 Seventy five percent of the games have scored at least 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:59.560 fifty one points. So we're getting any spread or a 0:03:59.640 --> 0:04:01.520 total forty eight and a half points. We know the 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:03.800 Lions can cover this on their own. They've done it 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:07.360 the last two home games against the aforementioned Tennessee Titans 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:11.000 and Jacksonville Jaguar, so Chicago could be maybe an even 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:12.480 show up and we can still hit the over in 0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:12.839 this game. 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:15.280 And I haven't even sweat who wins. I just want points. 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:17.320 That's what I want on my plate at twelve thirty 0:04:17.360 --> 0:04:20.040 PM when I'm watching this game. I want points. So 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:22.080 given how good the Bears offense has looked over the 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:24.080 last two weeks, I think they can do at least 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:26.799 something in this game to keep it pedal to the medal, 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:28.320 keep Dan Campbell trying to score. 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:30.400 So I love the over in this game more than side. 0:04:30.680 --> 0:04:34.640 Eric Erickson wants a second helping of points, not to tortadoes. 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:37.160 Can I get some more en points? That's what I want. 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:41.039 You know, if you've parlayed those, if you parlay the 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:43.240 Lions on the money line. I'm just looking at this. 0:04:43.600 --> 0:04:45.520 The Lions that cover the spread and the over on 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:48.080 the points forty eight and a half, you actually get 0:04:48.080 --> 0:04:49.960 this a plus two to fifty, which is kind of fun, 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:51.719 just saying, you know, if you just want to go 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:53.400 for the clean sweep and you want to take the 0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:55.440 best of all of us here, you know, put them 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:57.320 all to one thing and maybe we're all right in 0:04:57.360 --> 0:04:59.480 some way. That would be nice. All right, let's get 0:04:59.480 --> 0:05:02.560 to the next game here, because we have to. We're contract. 0:05:03.040 --> 0:05:07.320 It's the New York Giants against the Dallas Cowboys. Tommy DeVito, 0:05:08.000 --> 0:05:11.960 uh though, turkey for Thanksgiving. All cutlets, baby, all chicken cutlets. 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:14.120 Four and a half is the number in this game. 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:16.680 Dallas is favored by four at home. Cooper Rush coming 0:05:16.720 --> 0:05:19.359 off or you believe one of his better performances in 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:21.839 his NFL career, thirty nine and a half is the number. 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:25.160 Plus one sixty five for the Giants on the money line. 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:29.280 So ericson in Division games, something gonna get wacky here 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:33.120 or the g man gonna pull something out of this turkey. 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:35.360 I don't know what, but it could be a w. 0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:38.680 If Drew Locke plays, it definitely could be a w 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:41.600 because Tommy DeVito is now questionable to play in this game. 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:43.800 He has soreness in his throwing arm because he was just. 0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:49.000 Oh I hurt myself. I can't move anymore. 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:52.880 So I mean, I'm not gonna bet on Dallas here. 0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:54.640 So again, if you make me pick aside, I would 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:57.000 take the Giants with the points. Going back to talking 0:05:57.040 --> 0:05:59.320 about divisional matchups, and if Drew Locke is a starter, 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:02.560 luck the better quarterback than Tommy DeVito. Tommy DeVito is 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:04.599 a thirsteon quarterback for a reason, So I think that 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:07.760 this gives the Giants hope and advantage. I mean, Drew 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:09.960 Locke would be really motivated to play because he came 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:11.640 to New York thinking that hey, I'll get a chance 0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:13.360 to play here, and they're like, oh sorry, we're gonna 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:16.120 cut the start and then go right to mister Italian himself, 0:06:16.160 --> 0:06:18.000 Tommy DeVito, because we need to lose games so we 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:20.440 get a high draft pick. So but if he's out, 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:22.120 I think that makes a big difference. I think that 0:06:22.200 --> 0:06:25.279 Lock versus Cooper Rush is much more an even matchup 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:28.440 than DeVito versus Cooper Rush. So if the Locke plays. 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:30.960 I'm cool laying the points of the Giants, but for me, 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:32.920 I just want to bet the under of the game 0:06:32.960 --> 0:06:33.880 thirty seven and a half points. 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:35.880 Zoom out right every day. 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:38.480 When you look back at Dallas traditionally what they've done 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:40.800 at home, most of their games have gone over the total. 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:43.200 You know what team never goes over the total? The 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:45.760 New York Giants. This is a team that drags every 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:47.640 single game through the mud. And you're going to see 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.120 some regression here with Dallas's home games always going over 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:53.279 the total. Well, their explosive offense is long gone. You 0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:55.960 look at the Giants, what's their biggest weakness in their past? 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.880 Secondary deep passes? You know who does it throw the 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:00.520 ball deep rush? 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:01.160 He does not. 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:03.680 He's not attack downfield whatsoever. 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:06.360 So this will be a low scoring game, whether it's lock, 0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:09.200 whether it's rush, And in a low scoring game, usually 0:07:09.200 --> 0:07:10.680 want to be on the side of the underdog. 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:12.720 So I'll take the Giants to the points. Ultimately. 0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:15.000 Do you think that Dallas gets their first home victory 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:16.920 of the year. But I don't think it's gonna be 0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:18.120 more than byfield goal. 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:21.080 You know, it's funny. I think the one element you're 0:07:21.600 --> 0:07:25.160 just missing out on This is against with a local flavor, 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:27.320 which I'm gonna add here being a local in this 0:07:27.440 --> 0:07:32.360 New Jersey tri state area. The incredible negative comments right 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:35.520 now coming out of all the Giants players, which is 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:38.440 again a very telling thing of when they like Daniel Jones. 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:39.200 They didn't want to see it. 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:42.120 They seem to like Daniel Jones. They don't like the 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:44.400 way this was handled by the coaches and the GM 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:49.040 And when you lose a team, you sometimes then lose 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:51.600 a lot of games, and it feels like that's what's 0:07:51.640 --> 0:07:54.680 starting to happen here. Bugs. You know, it doesn't It 0:07:54.720 --> 0:07:57.560 doesn't help that you lost. And then at night everybody 0:07:57.560 --> 0:07:59.520 went home and they all watched Saquon Barkley run for 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:01.720 five thousand and seventy two yards against the Rams, Like 0:08:01.760 --> 0:08:02.480 that didn't help. 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:06.360 I mean, does Daniel Jones not have the opportunity to 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:10.160 do the funniest thing ever and sign with the Philadelphia Eagles. 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:13.480 It would just be so good. It would be so good. 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:15.800 He'd be there with Saquwan, he's a good teammate, and 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:18.400 it would piss off Kenny Pickett so much. I would 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:20.240 love it. It would be my favorite thing in the world. 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:22.880 But I'm with Erickson in this game. Let's just take 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:25.880 the under. Drew Locke is a statue Tomy DeVito can't 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:28.600 throw the ball down field. Cooper Rush isn't throwing the 0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:31.440 ball down field. They have no running game in Dallas. 0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:33.520 The offensive line is a mess. This is a great 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:36.960 front seven for the Giants. The Cowboys defense is so 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:41.000 much better with Micah Parsons. I mean, I just this 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:44.240 is an underplay easy for me. This is probably my 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:47.760 favorite pick of the day. And I don't like playing 0:08:48.760 --> 0:08:53.280 sides or totals on Thursday games, but that one seems 0:08:53.320 --> 0:08:54.040 pretty nice to me. 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:56.559 What you can do, too, is if you tee, if 0:08:56.559 --> 0:08:58.840 you bring it down to Cowboys money line and then 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:01.319 you bring up the total two forty five and a half, 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:03.520 you combine those you get minus one oh five. 0:09:03.679 --> 0:09:04.120 I like it. 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:06.040 Here you go. That was something I was looking. 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:07.679 I was like, Okay, like, I think again, I think 0:09:07.720 --> 0:09:09.480 the Cowboys are gonna win, and I get a forty 0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:10.880 five and a half point total to work with. 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:11.800 Take the under on that. 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:15.360 Okay, there you go, all right? Last one here is 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:20.800 the evening game in Chili Chili, Green Bay, Wisconsin. Green 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:23.920 Bay at night in November sounds like the perfect spin 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:26.480 for the I mean Dolphins, right, sounds like the perfect 0:09:26.480 --> 0:09:29.400 spot for two a Teglailo, who has not played well 0:09:29.400 --> 0:09:31.120 in these cold weather games, whether it be Buffalo or 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:32.640 green Bay, over the years. So here we go. The 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:35.120 green Bay Packer is minus three at home, forty seven 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:36.719 and a half coming off of butt kicking of the 0:09:36.760 --> 0:09:39.040 forty nine ers, plus one forty five here on the 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:42.600 Miami money line, which is tempting but hard pass for me. 0:09:43.160 --> 0:09:46.200 I'm keeping this one real easy. Here, give me green 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:47.480 Bay with the three Bogs. 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:51.120 Your thoughts, yeah, I mean, I just I keep thinking 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:54.840 of that meme of the Latin lady who moved to 0:09:55.000 --> 0:09:58.520 Michigan or whatever from ninety day Fiance who is like, 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:02.120 I was not built for this weather. I cannot believe 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:05.400 people live in this. This is disgusting. I think that's 0:10:05.400 --> 0:10:07.240 what the Dolphins are gonna be saying, going to Green 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:09.800 Bay in a late November game here like they did 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:12.280 against Kansas City in the playoffs last year. So I 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:13.920 think I'd take Green Bay as well. 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:15.560 You know, I had never seen that show before my 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:16.199 whole life. 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:18.679 And I've still never seen it. I've only seen these lives. Well, 0:10:18.760 --> 0:10:19.360 I have now. 0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:22.680 This summer, we were flipping on the channels and my 0:10:22.800 --> 0:10:25.640 two teenage daughters like, stop a second, well, I want 0:10:25.679 --> 0:10:27.680 to see that, and we started watching it. It is 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:33.440 the dumbest, most ridiculous program, and yet you can't look away. 0:10:33.440 --> 0:10:35.200 It is I've only seen the guy with no neck, 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:37.120 I've seen, and then. 0:10:37.440 --> 0:10:39.280 We saw this one was like an older woman and 0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:41.240 she had so much plastic surgery. I don't think she 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:44.080 could feel emotions anymore. It just or at least her 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:48.320 face municate them. Yeah, or at least ericson. You still 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:49.520 got a lot of emotions and you what are your 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:51.800 feelings about this Green Bay Packer Miami Dolphin game. 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:54.640 I want to fade the Dolphins into oblivion. That's how 0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:57.400 I feel about this game. They don't win as underdogs. 0:10:57.640 --> 0:10:59.520 They are last eleven games as an underdog, they are 0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:02.240 three and eight overall, five and nine against the spread. 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:05.240 They don't beat good teams the last time to they 0:11:05.320 --> 0:11:10.040 so again against teams that have winning records. Last six games, 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:11.640 they have failed to cover the spread in five of them. 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:15.680 So this has always been the stick with Miami. Mike McDaniel, 0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:18.839 they beat up on the bad teams. The Patriots, the Jets, 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:20.679 these teams that nobody wants any part of, and then 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:22.120 they go on the road to play some of these 0:11:22.520 --> 0:11:26.400 actual Playoff contending teams and they just don't deliver, and 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:29.040 then they don't show up. So, given the weather, given 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:31.080 all the things I've already kind of pointed out, I 0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:32.600 just want to fade the Dolphins. 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:34.480 I'll take the Packers laying the points. Again. 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:36.480 I was thinking about this, would you rather if you 0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:38.040 had to bet on one of these games, would rather 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:39.600 lay the points of the Packers of the Cowboys? 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:41.199 Packers? Duh? 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:43.719 That seems really obvious to me. When you're comparing you're 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:45.480 not going to bet on every single game. Take the 0:11:45.520 --> 0:11:46.959 Packers or the spread. 0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:47.439 Essentially. 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:49.440 Oh, I am stick to the end for the Turkey 0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:52.240 Day parlay, which, by the way, last year we hit, 0:11:52.679 --> 0:11:55.120 so now we've set a precedent. We got to go 0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:57.320 to for two. Last year we hit the Turkey Day Parlay. 0:11:57.960 --> 0:11:59.360 It was a good one. I think I got one 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:01.800 where you could watch each game and hopefully come away 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:03.600 with some money. And it's a big number too, And 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:05.640 I don't think it's absurd, I really don't. All Right, 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:07.320 let's get to some of the props and break down 0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:10.840 some of these right here. Ericson, let's start with the 0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:14.120 Detroit Chicago game for you, walk me through the two 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:15.880 props that you like the most that you are in 0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:16.880 on this weekend. 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:19.840 Yeah, so I really like rom Adonza in this matchup 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:21.920 against the Detroit Lions. So the Lions this season have 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:24.080 been one of the worst teams against defending the slot. 0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:25.880 And I know a lot of people look at, oh, well, 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:27.400 Keenan Allen, he's the main slot receiver for the s 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:29.640 Trago Bears, but Roma Dunsay actually plays a decent amount 0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:31.880 of the slot as well, and he's been over thirty 0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:35.160 nine receiving yards in seven straight games. Last week he 0:12:35.200 --> 0:12:37.240 saw over one hundred air yards. I know that he 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:40.240 wasn't necessarily the guy who had the most production last week, 0:12:40.280 --> 0:12:42.199 but all the priffles were there for him. He was 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:44.480 still seeing a ton of volumes, still saw ten targets. 0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:47.960 And when you look at in terms of Dvoay against 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:51.760 number three wide receivers, Detroit Lions rank dead last in 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:54.240 the NFL in terms of total targets and yards to 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:57.640 number three wide receivers. Odunza is technically the number three 0:12:57.640 --> 0:12:59.960 receiver on his team, so I think that this number 0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:02.840 is way too low. We saw Caleb Williams go to 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:06.439 a Douneesay last week in a key fourth down. They 0:13:06.440 --> 0:13:08.559 have a really good connection, and I think that a 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:11.160 dudes is going to have an explosion game here in 0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:13.080 the Dome. I like the over so I like somebody's 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:15.400 over on some of these props. A Donsay, I feel 0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:17.240 like he kind of a flag plan as my guy 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:19.120 heading into this game, Okay. 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:21.440 And then David Montgomery, he's been a touchdown machine. You 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:24.319 have a different approach taking the first touchdown, which is 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:26.240 a pretty big number. Plus four seventy. I mean, if 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:29.440 that comes through Thanksgiving holiday, is already a good time. 0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:31.000 Well, I mean, if you had to. 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:32.480 But he's the most likely to score at the first 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:36.079 touchdout right, and I mean we know right, like you. 0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:39.040 Know, you know it's it's gonna be it's gonna be 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:41.360 the most obvious one or the one where you're like 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:43.640 that guy's still in a roster in the NFL. I 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:48.480 love that Jared Golfs this week too. I remember at 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:49.760 the end of the game, to the guy who caught 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:52.199 the touchdown, the Malik Heath, I. 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:56.679 Was like Malik Heath Pride in Mississippi State stop it any. 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.160 Week, So I like Monk, well, I don't want to, 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:01.360 you know, for him to get any time touchdown. Dave 0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:03.360 Montgomery's like minus two twenty right, okay, so you know 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:06.120 he's gonna score. So we know who's gonna score first, right, 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:08.280 probably the Lions. So I'm just kind of like putting 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:09.880 math together and like, yeah, I get that the odds 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:11.480 are because that has to be the first touchdown, but 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:14.000 Devevi Montgomery's playing his old team, Chicago Bears. You don't 0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:16.360 think that Dan Campbell knows that we'll get a good 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:19.480 guy touchdown. The last six regular season home games, Den 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:21.720 Montgomery scored a touchdown. So I'm trying to get a 0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:23.760 bigger payout for what if the first happen. 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.080 He's played them, like he's been with the Lions for 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:27.360 you know, he's. 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.440 Played and I'm sure that he scored touchdowns and all 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:30.640 those other other games too. 0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:34.600 Like it's like the Simpsons met Stop Stopping's dead. 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:36.840 Okay, but I think it's more like a fifty to 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:39.200 fifty shot of it's gonna be either Gibbs or Montgomery. 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:40.800 So if you're Dan Campbell A, you're gonna give it 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:42.320 to Gibbs first, or just give it to Montgom Like, hey, 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:44.160 let's get my money's touchdown, he gets his old team, 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:45.760 and then we'll we'll be cooking. 0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:48.480 So yeah, Dean Montgomery for me first touchdown and then when. 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:50.480 Brock Wright scores everybody, you could be miserable for the 0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:53.680 rest of the afternoon. Uh, let's go to your picks here. 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:55.680 Let's start with kayleb Williams two twenty seven and a 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:58.320 half passing yards. Are you going over or under that box? 0:14:58.440 --> 0:15:01.040 Let's go with the end the old This team has 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:04.160 been so much better without Shane Waltron at the helm. 0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:06.720 Qbs have hit this marker versus Detroit in seven of 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:09.520 eleven games. The guys that didn't hit it a Rich 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:13.040 mac Jones, Dak Murray, and Mayfield. Early in the season. 0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:16.680 Detroit is third and opposing team passing percentage because most 0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:20.440 teams are playing from behind trying to come back against Detroit, 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:23.520 which as the favorite in this game. You know, the 0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:27.080 Lions look to be leading late and I think Caleb 0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:29.360 is going to be passing late. Three hundred ninety one 0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:32.480 total yards versus Green Bay two weeks ago, green Bay 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:35.360 only gave up more to Philly in Week one and 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:38.680 three hundred and ninety eight total yards against Minnesota last week. 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:41.560 Only green Bay in Week four in San Francisco in 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:45.880 Week two had more versus Minnesota. This offense for Chicago 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:49.920 has looked much better under Thomas Brown than it did 0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:53.400 with Shane Waldron. So I like this total to go over. 0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:57.120 Let's hit. Let's hit I almost sad Keenan Allen. Let's 0:15:57.160 --> 0:16:01.120 hit Roma Dunsa on our way to this total as well, ericson, 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:03.480 so we can both be right. Let's do it all right. 0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:05.600 And Bobs, you've also got another one here. You've got 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:09.320 Jamison Williams two who forty six and a half is 0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:11.640 the number for him on the receiving yards Mince one thirteen. 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:14.680 And since you are the man who always likes overs, 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:16.160 I assume this is an over as well. 0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:21.440 Yeah, I'm the overtaker here. Top ten in a nine undertaking. 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:24.880 Yeah yeah, Now I'm the mayor of a city. Top 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:28.600 ten in a dot minimum forty targets that Jamis and 0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:31.960 Williams top fifteen and yards per route run. Weird stat 0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:34.760 of the day, one hundred and forty five fewer yards 0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:39.440 than a manra on forty two fewer catches for Jamison Williams, 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:43.400 he's obviously explosive. He's gone over this total on one 0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:47.040 catch in four games this season. In nine that he's played, 0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:49.640 he's passed his total and in every game with at 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:52.960 least two catches seven of nine games he's had at 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:56.800 least two catches in Chicago's twenty eighth in yards per 0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:59.800 completion allowed. So let's go with the over on Jamison 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:01.080 Williams receiving yards. 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.640 Let's go to Dallas again and find some props. This time, 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:07.760 let's start with Rico Doubtle undertaker, take it away. 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:10.639 Yes, I'm going under on fourteen and a half receiving 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:13.399 yards for Rico Daddles. So he's gone under this number 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:16.200 in three straight games with Cooper Rush as quarterback. It's 0:17:16.240 --> 0:17:18.640 weird because you think, well, Cooper Rush is this check 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:21.640 down savant like Cooper or Rico Dada should be eaten. 0:17:21.720 --> 0:17:23.879 And yeah, he's seen decent amount of targets, but because 0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:26.360 the average of the target is so low it's negative 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:30.360 three yards, he's not actual receiving yards on these receptions 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:32.840 because they're all behind the line of scrimmage. So this 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:34.720