Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's down to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It's me Joey p joe Pisapia and this
Speaker 1: is the VP NFL Thanksgiving Special. That's right, Just like
Speaker 1: Randy Marsh, we've been working on a very special special
Speaker 1: for you for Thanksgiving. You're sitting around with your family, overeating,
Speaker 1: arguing about well, probably everything. The best thing you can
Speaker 1: do is just put together some bets, sit back, watch
Speaker 1: some games and make some money. And to help us
Speaker 1: get the right bets at the right time. Of course,
Speaker 1: two of my best friends, Andrew Erics in the Undertaker
Speaker 1: and my boy Scott Bogman, and we're going to go
Speaker 1: through the games one by one and then talk about
Speaker 1: some of the props too. But first to the games.
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Speaker 1: we can give that away for Christmas time too. All right,
Speaker 1: let's start things off here with the Detroit Lions and
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears. Ten and a half is the number
Speaker 1: year in favor of the Detroit Lions. Forty eight and
Speaker 1: a half is the number here of the total plus
Speaker 1: four thirty four Chicago Bears upset. If there's one thing
Speaker 1: I think, boys, that we've learned in I've said it
Speaker 1: on these shows in the last few times we've had
Speaker 1: double digit spreads against the Lions. Here where the Lions
Speaker 1: take care of business. Dan Campbell does not understand the
Speaker 1: word trap game. He doesn't understand the words let up breaks.
Speaker 1: His cars have none, It's all just gas. And then
Speaker 1: sometimes he slows down just enough to get back into
Speaker 1: his garage at night. So, Bogs, are you comfortable with
Speaker 1: the ten and a half? I want to start there?
Speaker 2: No, not really, I'm gonna take I'm gonna take the
Speaker 2: points here. Look, it's it's a Thursday game. It's a
Speaker 2: weird game. And I actually kind of like the way
Speaker 2: Chicago has been playing since making this change at OC
Speaker 2: And Yeah, I think we've seen Caleb Williams put together
Speaker 2: some decent drives here. He should have had a game
Speaker 2: winning drive against Washington and the hail Mary ruined that.
Speaker 2: He should have had a game winning drive against the
Speaker 2: Packers and the field goal got blocked and he had
Speaker 2: a drive to come back inside the game last week.
Speaker 2: I think, Uh, Chicago's been competitive, They've been keeping it close.
Speaker 2: He's just been on the wrong end of the stick
Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. Doesn't mean that that's how it's
Speaker 2: gonna play. Like I say every single week for Thursday,
Speaker 2: don't play the game, lay the props The games are weird,
Speaker 2: they're strange, they can get lopsided, but I like Chicago and.
Speaker 1: This one plus the play. They agree typically with you.
Speaker 1: The games can get weird, but look, Dan Campbell, I
Speaker 1: don't know, I feel comfortable with these points. Every time
Speaker 1: they get one of these slapp nut teams coming in,
Speaker 1: they're just way out of their I.
Speaker 2: Just don't think Chicago's is not like Jacksonville. Okay, but
Speaker 2: I don't think Chicago's one of those teams Titans.
Speaker 3: Well, neither of those teams are division opponents their division.
Speaker 1: That's that that's the route you want to take, all right,
Speaker 1: americ I feel you're building a narrative. Go ahead, tell
Speaker 1: me why I'm not.
Speaker 4: I'm not pickingside because it's a divisional matchup.
Speaker 3: I'm not going I'm not going to fall into the
Speaker 3: traffic Commanders Cowboys from last week where it's some weird,
Speaker 3: wacky divisional games Steelers Browns on Thursday night.
Speaker 4: I'm not doing this.
Speaker 3: So I'm just taking the over because we're playing this
Speaker 3: game in Detroit, and this is where game, this is
Speaker 3: where point totals thrive and they fly above soar into
Speaker 3: the clouds. So looking at the average children the Lion's
Speaker 3: last twenty four home games, so this is going back
Speaker 3: season after season, the average has been nearly fifty five points.
Speaker 3: Seventy five percent of the games have scored at least
Speaker 3: fifty one points. So we're getting any spread or a
Speaker 3: total forty eight and a half points. We know the
Speaker 3: Lions can cover this on their own. They've done it
Speaker 3: the last two home games against the aforementioned Tennessee Titans
Speaker 3: and Jacksonville Jaguar, so Chicago could be maybe an even
Speaker 3: show up and we can still hit the over in
Speaker 3: this game.
Speaker 4: And I haven't even sweat who wins. I just want points.
Speaker 3: That's what I want on my plate at twelve thirty
Speaker 3: PM when I'm watching this game. I want points. So
Speaker 3: given how good the Bears offense has looked over the
Speaker 3: last two weeks, I think they can do at least
Speaker 3: something in this game to keep it pedal to the medal,
Speaker 3: keep Dan Campbell trying to score.
Speaker 4: So I love the over in this game more than side.
Speaker 2: Eric Erickson wants a second helping of points, not to tortadoes.
Speaker 1: Can I get some more en points? That's what I want.
Speaker 1: You know, if you've parlayed those, if you parlay the
Speaker 1: Lions on the money line. I'm just looking at this.
Speaker 1: The Lions that cover the spread and the over on
Speaker 1: the points forty eight and a half, you actually get
Speaker 1: this a plus two to fifty, which is kind of fun,
Speaker 1: just saying, you know, if you just want to go
Speaker 1: for the clean sweep and you want to take the
Speaker 1: best of all of us here, you know, put them
Speaker 1: all to one thing and maybe we're all right in
Speaker 1: some way. That would be nice. All right, let's get
Speaker 1: to the next game here, because we have to. We're contract.
Speaker 1: It's the New York Giants against the Dallas Cowboys. Tommy DeVito,
Speaker 1: uh though, turkey for Thanksgiving. All cutlets, baby, all chicken cutlets.
Speaker 1: Four and a half is the number in this game.
Speaker 1: Dallas is favored by four at home. Cooper Rush coming
Speaker 1: off or you believe one of his better performances in
Speaker 1: his NFL career, thirty nine and a half is the number.
Speaker 1: Plus one sixty five for the Giants on the money line.
Speaker 1: So ericson in Division games, something gonna get wacky here
Speaker 1: or the g man gonna pull something out of this turkey.
Speaker 1: I don't know what, but it could be a w.
Speaker 3: If Drew Locke plays, it definitely could be a w
Speaker 3: because Tommy DeVito is now questionable to play in this game.
Speaker 3: He has soreness in his throwing arm because he was just.
Speaker 1: Oh I hurt myself. I can't move anymore.
Speaker 3: So I mean, I'm not gonna bet on Dallas here.
Speaker 3: So again, if you make me pick aside, I would
Speaker 3: take the Giants with the points. Going back to talking
Speaker 3: about divisional matchups, and if Drew Locke is a starter,
Speaker 3: luck the better quarterback than Tommy DeVito. Tommy DeVito is
Speaker 3: a thirsteon quarterback for a reason, So I think that
Speaker 3: this gives the Giants hope and advantage. I mean, Drew
Speaker 3: Locke would be really motivated to play because he came
Speaker 3: to New York thinking that hey, I'll get a chance
Speaker 3: to play here, and they're like, oh sorry, we're gonna
Speaker 3: cut the start and then go right to mister Italian himself,
Speaker 3: Tommy DeVito, because we need to lose games so we
Speaker 3: get a high draft pick. So but if he's out,
Speaker 3: I think that makes a big difference. I think that
Speaker 3: Lock versus Cooper Rush is much more an even matchup
Speaker 3: than DeVito versus Cooper Rush. So if the Locke plays.
Speaker 3: I'm cool laying the points of the Giants, but for me,
Speaker 3: I just want to bet the under of the game
Speaker 3: thirty seven and a half points.
Speaker 4: Zoom out right every day.
Speaker 3: When you look back at Dallas traditionally what they've done
Speaker 3: at home, most of their games have gone over the total.
Speaker 3: You know what team never goes over the total? The
Speaker 3: New York Giants. This is a team that drags every
Speaker 3: single game through the mud. And you're going to see
Speaker 3: some regression here with Dallas's home games always going over
Speaker 3: the total. Well, their explosive offense is long gone. You
Speaker 3: look at the Giants, what's their biggest weakness in their past?
Speaker 3: Secondary deep passes? You know who does it throw the
Speaker 3: ball deep rush?
Speaker 1: He does not.
Speaker 4: He's not attack downfield whatsoever.
Speaker 3: So this will be a low scoring game, whether it's lock,
Speaker 3: whether it's rush, And in a low scoring game, usually
Speaker 3: want to be on the side of the underdog.
Speaker 4: So I'll take the Giants to the points. Ultimately.
Speaker 3: Do you think that Dallas gets their first home victory
Speaker 3: of the year. But I don't think it's gonna be
Speaker 3: more than byfield goal.
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny. I think the one element you're
Speaker 1: just missing out on This is against with a local flavor,
Speaker 1: which I'm gonna add here being a local in this
Speaker 1: New Jersey tri state area. The incredible negative comments right
Speaker 1: now coming out of all the Giants players, which is
Speaker 1: again a very telling thing of when they like Daniel Jones.
Speaker 2: They didn't want to see it.
Speaker 1: They seem to like Daniel Jones. They don't like the
Speaker 1: way this was handled by the coaches and the GM
Speaker 1: And when you lose a team, you sometimes then lose
Speaker 1: a lot of games, and it feels like that's what's
Speaker 1: starting to happen here. Bugs. You know, it doesn't It
Speaker 1: doesn't help that you lost. And then at night everybody
Speaker 1: went home and they all watched Saquon Barkley run for
Speaker 1: five thousand and seventy two yards against the Rams, Like
Speaker 1: that didn't help.
Speaker 2: I mean, does Daniel Jones not have the opportunity to
Speaker 2: do the funniest thing ever and sign with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 2: It would just be so good. It would be so good.
Speaker 2: He'd be there with Saquwan, he's a good teammate, and
Speaker 2: it would piss off Kenny Pickett so much. I would
Speaker 2: love it. It would be my favorite thing in the world.
Speaker 2: But I'm with Erickson in this game. Let's just take
Speaker 2: the under. Drew Locke is a statue Tomy DeVito can't
Speaker 2: throw the ball down field. Cooper Rush isn't throwing the
Speaker 2: ball down field. They have no running game in Dallas.
Speaker 2: The offensive line is a mess. This is a great
Speaker 2: front seven for the Giants. The Cowboys defense is so
Speaker 2: much better with Micah Parsons. I mean, I just this
Speaker 2: is an underplay easy for me. This is probably my
Speaker 2: favorite pick of the day. And I don't like playing
Speaker 2: sides or totals on Thursday games, but that one seems
Speaker 2: pretty nice to me.
Speaker 3: What you can do, too, is if you tee, if
Speaker 3: you bring it down to Cowboys money line and then
Speaker 3: you bring up the total two forty five and a half,
Speaker 3: you combine those you get minus one oh five.
Speaker 2: I like it.
Speaker 4: Here you go. That was something I was looking.
Speaker 3: I was like, Okay, like, I think again, I think
Speaker 3: the Cowboys are gonna win, and I get a forty
Speaker 3: five and a half point total to work with.
Speaker 4: Take the under on that.
Speaker 1: Okay, there you go, all right? Last one here is
Speaker 1: the evening game in Chili Chili, Green Bay, Wisconsin. Green
Speaker 1: Bay at night in November sounds like the perfect spin
Speaker 1: for the I mean Dolphins, right, sounds like the perfect
Speaker 1: spot for two a Teglailo, who has not played well
Speaker 1: in these cold weather games, whether it be Buffalo or
Speaker 1: green Bay, over the years. So here we go. The
Speaker 1: green Bay Packer is minus three at home, forty seven
Speaker 1: and a half coming off of butt kicking of the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers, plus one forty five here on the
Speaker 1: Miami money line, which is tempting but hard pass for me.
Speaker 1: I'm keeping this one real easy. Here, give me green
Speaker 1: Bay with the three Bogs.
Speaker 2: Your thoughts, yeah, I mean, I just I keep thinking
Speaker 2: of that meme of the Latin lady who moved to
Speaker 2: Michigan or whatever from ninety day Fiance who is like,
Speaker 2: I was not built for this weather. I cannot believe
Speaker 2: people live in this. This is disgusting. I think that's
Speaker 2: what the Dolphins are gonna be saying, going to Green
Speaker 2: Bay in a late November game here like they did
Speaker 2: against Kansas City in the playoffs last year. So I
Speaker 2: think I'd take Green Bay as well.
Speaker 1: You know, I had never seen that show before my
Speaker 1: whole life.
Speaker 2: And I've still never seen it. I've only seen these lives. Well,
Speaker 2: I have now.
Speaker 1: This summer, we were flipping on the channels and my
Speaker 1: two teenage daughters like, stop a second, well, I want
Speaker 1: to see that, and we started watching it. It is
Speaker 1: the dumbest, most ridiculous program, and yet you can't look away.
Speaker 2: It is I've only seen the guy with no neck,
Speaker 2: I've seen, and then.
Speaker 1: We saw this one was like an older woman and
Speaker 1: she had so much plastic surgery. I don't think she
Speaker 1: could feel emotions anymore. It just or at least her
Speaker 1: face municate them. Yeah, or at least ericson. You still
Speaker 1: got a lot of emotions and you what are your
Speaker 1: feelings about this Green Bay Packer Miami Dolphin game.
Speaker 4: I want to fade the Dolphins into oblivion. That's how
Speaker 4: I feel about this game. They don't win as underdogs.
Speaker 3: They are last eleven games as an underdog, they are
Speaker 3: three and eight overall, five and nine against the spread.
Speaker 3: They don't beat good teams the last time to they
Speaker 3: so again against teams that have winning records. Last six games,
Speaker 3: they have failed to cover the spread in five of them.
Speaker 3: So this has always been the stick with Miami. Mike McDaniel,
Speaker 3: they beat up on the bad teams. The Patriots, the Jets,
Speaker 3: these teams that nobody wants any part of, and then
Speaker 3: they go on the road to play some of these
Speaker 3: actual Playoff contending teams and they just don't deliver, and
Speaker 3: then they don't show up. So, given the weather, given
Speaker 3: all the things I've already kind of pointed out, I
Speaker 3: just want to fade the Dolphins.
Speaker 4: I'll take the Packers laying the points. Again.
Speaker 3: I was thinking about this, would you rather if you
Speaker 3: had to bet on one of these games, would rather
Speaker 3: lay the points of the Packers of the Cowboys?
Speaker 4: Packers? Duh?
Speaker 3: That seems really obvious to me. When you're comparing you're
Speaker 3: not going to bet on every single game. Take the
Speaker 3: Packers or the spread.
Speaker 4: Essentially.
Speaker 1: Oh, I am stick to the end for the Turkey
Speaker 1: Day parlay, which, by the way, last year we hit,
Speaker 1: so now we've set a precedent. We got to go
Speaker 1: to for two. Last year we hit the Turkey Day Parlay.
Speaker 1: It was a good one. I think I got one
Speaker 1: where you could watch each game and hopefully come away
Speaker 1: with some money. And it's a big number too, And
Speaker 1: I don't think it's absurd, I really don't. All Right,
Speaker 1: let's get to some of the props and break down
Speaker 1: some of these right here. Ericson, let's start with the
Speaker 1: Detroit Chicago game for you, walk me through the two
Speaker 1: props that you like the most that you are in
Speaker 1: on this weekend.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I really like rom Adonza in this matchup
Speaker 3: against the Detroit Lions. So the Lions this season have
Speaker 3: been one of the worst teams against defending the slot.
Speaker 3: And I know a lot of people look at, oh, well,
Speaker 3: Keenan Allen, he's the main slot receiver for the s
Speaker 3: Trago Bears, but Roma Dunsay actually plays a decent amount
Speaker 3: of the slot as well, and he's been over thirty
Speaker 3: nine receiving yards in seven straight games. Last week he
Speaker 3: saw over one hundred air yards. I know that he
Speaker 3: wasn't necessarily the guy who had the most production last week,
Speaker 3: but all the priffles were there for him. He was
Speaker 3: still seeing a ton of volumes, still saw ten targets.
Speaker 3: And when you look at in terms of Dvoay against
Speaker 3: number three wide receivers, Detroit Lions rank dead last in
Speaker 3: the NFL in terms of total targets and yards to
Speaker 3: number three wide receivers. Odunza is technically the number three
Speaker 3: receiver on his team, so I think that this number
Speaker 3: is way too low. We saw Caleb Williams go to
Speaker 3: a Douneesay last week in a key fourth down. They
Speaker 3: have a really good connection, and I think that a
Speaker 3: dudes is going to have an explosion game here in
Speaker 3: the Dome. I like the over so I like somebody's
Speaker 3: over on some of these props. A Donsay, I feel
Speaker 3: like he kind of a flag plan as my guy
Speaker 3: heading into this game, Okay.
Speaker 1: And then David Montgomery, he's been a touchdown machine. You
Speaker 1: have a different approach taking the first touchdown, which is
Speaker 1: a pretty big number. Plus four seventy. I mean, if
Speaker 1: that comes through Thanksgiving holiday, is already a good time.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, if you had to.
Speaker 3: But he's the most likely to score at the first
Speaker 3: touchdout right, and I mean we know right, like you.
Speaker 1: Know, you know it's it's gonna be it's gonna be
Speaker 1: the most obvious one or the one where you're like
Speaker 1: that guy's still in a roster in the NFL. I
Speaker 1: love that Jared Golfs this week too. I remember at
Speaker 1: the end of the game, to the guy who caught
Speaker 1: the touchdown, the Malik Heath, I.
Speaker 2: Was like Malik Heath Pride in Mississippi State stop it any.
Speaker 3: Week, So I like Monk, well, I don't want to,
Speaker 3: you know, for him to get any time touchdown. Dave
Speaker 3: Montgomery's like minus two twenty right, okay, so you know
Speaker 3: he's gonna score. So we know who's gonna score first, right,
Speaker 3: probably the Lions. So I'm just kind of like putting
Speaker 3: math together and like, yeah, I get that the odds
Speaker 3: are because that has to be the first touchdown, but
Speaker 3: Devevi Montgomery's playing his old team, Chicago Bears. You don't
Speaker 3: think that Dan Campbell knows that we'll get a good
Speaker 3: guy touchdown. The last six regular season home games, Den
Speaker 3: Montgomery scored a touchdown. So I'm trying to get a
Speaker 3: bigger payout for what if the first happen.
Speaker 1: He's played them, like he's been with the Lions for
Speaker 1: you know, he's.
Speaker 3: Played and I'm sure that he scored touchdowns and all
Speaker 3: those other other games too.
Speaker 1: Like it's like the Simpsons met Stop Stopping's dead.
Speaker 3: Okay, but I think it's more like a fifty to
Speaker 3: fifty shot of it's gonna be either Gibbs or Montgomery.
Speaker 3: So if you're Dan Campbell A, you're gonna give it
Speaker 3: to Gibbs first, or just give it to Montgom Like, hey,
Speaker 3: let's get my money's touchdown, he gets his old team,
Speaker 3: and then we'll we'll be cooking.
Speaker 4: So yeah, Dean Montgomery for me first touchdown and then when.
Speaker 1: Brock Wright scores everybody, you could be miserable for the
Speaker 1: rest of the afternoon. Uh, let's go to your picks here.
Speaker 1: Let's start with kayleb Williams two twenty seven and a
Speaker 1: half passing yards. Are you going over or under that box?
Speaker 2: Let's go with the end the old This team has
Speaker 2: been so much better without Shane Waltron at the helm.
Speaker 2: Qbs have hit this marker versus Detroit in seven of
Speaker 2: eleven games. The guys that didn't hit it a Rich
Speaker 2: mac Jones, Dak Murray, and Mayfield. Early in the season.
Speaker 2: Detroit is third and opposing team passing percentage because most
Speaker 2: teams are playing from behind trying to come back against Detroit,
Speaker 2: which as the favorite in this game. You know, the
Speaker 2: Lions look to be leading late and I think Caleb
Speaker 2: is going to be passing late. Three hundred ninety one
Speaker 2: total yards versus Green Bay two weeks ago, green Bay
Speaker 2: only gave up more to Philly in Week one and
Speaker 2: three hundred and ninety eight total yards against Minnesota last week.
Speaker 2: Only green Bay in Week four in San Francisco in
Speaker 2: Week two had more versus Minnesota. This offense for Chicago
Speaker 2: has looked much better under Thomas Brown than it did
Speaker 2: with Shane Waldron. So I like this total to go over.
Speaker 2: Let's hit. Let's hit I almost sad Keenan Allen. Let's
Speaker 2: hit Roma Dunsa on our way to this total as well, ericson,
Speaker 2: so we can both be right. Let's do it all right.
Speaker 1: And Bobs, you've also got another one here. You've got
Speaker 1: Jamison Williams two who forty six and a half is
Speaker 1: the number for him on the receiving yards Mince one thirteen.
Speaker 1: And since you are the man who always likes overs,
Speaker 1: I assume this is an over as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm the overtaker here. Top ten in a nine undertaking.
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, Now I'm the mayor of a city. Top
Speaker 2: ten in a dot minimum forty targets that Jamis and
Speaker 2: Williams top fifteen and yards per route run. Weird stat
Speaker 2: of the day, one hundred and forty five fewer yards
Speaker 2: than a manra on forty two fewer catches for Jamison Williams,
Speaker 2: he's obviously explosive. He's gone over this total on one
Speaker 2: catch in four games this season. In nine that he's played,
Speaker 2: he's passed his total and in every game with at
Speaker 2: least two catches seven of nine games he's had at
Speaker 2: least two catches in Chicago's twenty eighth in yards per
Speaker 2: completion allowed. So let's go with the over on Jamison
Speaker 2: Williams receiving yards.
Speaker 1: Let's go to Dallas again and find some props. This time,
Speaker 1: let's start with Rico Doubtle undertaker, take it away.
Speaker 3: Yes, I'm going under on fourteen and a half receiving
Speaker 3: yards for Rico Daddles. So he's gone under this number
Speaker 3: in three straight games with Cooper Rush as quarterback. It's
Speaker 3: weird because you think, well, Cooper Rush is this check
Speaker 3: down savant like Cooper or Rico Dada should be eaten.
Speaker 3: And yeah, he's seen decent amount of targets, but because
Speaker 3: the average of the target is so low it's negative
Speaker 3: three yards, he's not actual receiving yards on these receptions
Speaker 3: because they're all behind the line of scrimmage. So this
Speaker 3: This is a bet where we could lose. He could
Speaker 3: get a big game, but then we could come back
Speaker 3: to life and we could still get the the undertake.
Speaker 3: It will literally rise for the under on this bet
Speaker 3: to hit because Rico Dada will lose yardage on a catch.
Speaker 3: So again I'm following the streaks here. Make it to
Speaker 3: four under, fourteen and a half receiving yards for Rico
Speaker 3: doubtell and on Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1: Now, that nice thing about Thanksgiving games is that you
Speaker 1: get those special bets out there too. There's always those
Speaker 1: like extra things that get thrown out there. And you
Speaker 1: found one that's kind of intriguing around the elite neighbor.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I absolutely love this one. So my milaik neighbors
Speaker 3: to catch a pass on the first drive plus one
Speaker 3: hundred odds. I found this at Draft Kings sports Book. Look,
Speaker 3: I can all but guarantee he's gonna get a target
Speaker 3: on the first drive.
Speaker 2: Then it's up to should be the first play in
Speaker 2: the game for them.
Speaker 3: I mean, I feel pretty comfid he's gonna get the target. Now,
Speaker 3: will he catch that target if it is even in
Speaker 3: his radio catch a bowl that is, will it be
Speaker 3: catch a ball? And that's why it's called gambling because
Speaker 3: it'd be a lot if it was. It would be
Speaker 3: a stone called lock if it was a target.
Speaker 4: But it's not.
Speaker 3: We're betting on the leak neighbors catching one of these
Speaker 3: targets on the first drive, so plus one hundred.
Speaker 4: See, this is how you get. This is how you
Speaker 4: watch this game.
Speaker 3: Right, do you tune in for the first drive lak neighbors, Yes,
Speaker 3: got the catch, Turn it off, go do something else.
Speaker 1: So that's what Ergun told. Plan is just to watch
Speaker 1: the beginning of every game. Dave Montgomery touchdown, good, first
Speaker 1: touch up, All right, I'm gonna go eat. First course,
Speaker 1: he comes back there. Second course, my lak neighbors catches
Speaker 1: the ball. All right, let's go and he keeps eating
Speaker 1: all day hopefully. All right, let's talk about who Boggs
Speaker 1: thinks is gonna eat. Let's start with your first bet.
Speaker 1: THEO Johnson's where you're going? All right, Yeah, let's talk
Speaker 1: about this.
Speaker 2: I so I had originally put in here THEO Johnson
Speaker 2: under and then went to go find my reasons, and
Speaker 2: when I was looking, I'm like, I have to go
Speaker 2: over on this total. It's twenty five and a half yard.
Speaker 2: So it's pretty low. He is a little bit nicked
Speaker 2: up with this back injury, but I think he's going
Speaker 2: to play through it. He's passed his total in six
Speaker 2: of the last seven games. He has had long receptions
Speaker 2: of twenty two, fifteen, twenty five, thirty five, thirteen to
Speaker 2: twenty three in those games his first percent his first
Speaker 2: look percentage is up to twenty one point three percent
Speaker 2: over the last month, after being only ten point three
Speaker 2: percent on this season, and with no Kendricks again this week.
Speaker 2: I love my boy the Marvin overshown, but he is
Speaker 2: bad in coverage. He's had forty targets allowed thirty seven catches.
Speaker 2: The ninety two point five reception percentage is the worst
Speaker 2: among qualified linebackers, and Kendricks I believe is best in
Speaker 2: completion percentage against, but he is likely not to be
Speaker 2: playing this game. So I think with over shown out there,
Speaker 2: with you know, check down Tommy or check down Drew
Speaker 2: Locke the statue, I think I think THEO Johnson can
Speaker 2: pass this if he gets two catches and.
Speaker 1: Then ceede Lamb a guy who obviously gets a lot
Speaker 1: of targets to your going with the receiving yards over
Speaker 1: sixty seven and a half at minus one ten.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he's gonna be locked up on the
Speaker 2: rookie Andrew Phillips. Right, Andrew Phillips is the slot guy.
Speaker 2: He plays most of his snaps out of the slot.
Speaker 2: We're gonna see a lot of seeding Lamb in this game.
Speaker 2: Six straight games with ten or more targets. He's fourth
Speaker 2: in YAK, So I know a lot of guys catch
Speaker 2: the ball and fall down. That's not CD and it's
Speaker 2: the last couple of thanks Giving Day performances have been
Speaker 2: solid as well. Eleven six one oh six two years ago,
Speaker 2: seventeen targets, twelve catches, one hundred and sixteen yards in
Speaker 2: a score last year, and in their last matchup earlier
Speaker 2: this year. Obviously it was with DAK, but he had
Speaker 2: eight targets, seven catches, ninety eight yards in a score.
Speaker 2: So you know, I'm not for a lot of overs
Speaker 2: in this game, but I think these two are okay.
Speaker 1: And when you're looking for props again, don't forget prop
Speaker 1: bet cheat sheet. It's out there to give you all
Speaker 1: the props for every game with the best lines and
Speaker 1: the best over unders there, so use it. Go to
Speaker 1: bettingpros Dot com slash props or getting download the app
Speaker 1: and just look for the prop bet cheat sheet. Let's
Speaker 1: do Miami and Green Bay last, but not least here,
Speaker 1: Let's start with john News Smith, who's become an intriguing
Speaker 1: part of this Miami Dolphins offense. And I don't know
Speaker 1: if anybody really saw coming.
Speaker 4: I sure didn't.
Speaker 3: As someone that drafted Jalen Waddle aggressively in fantasy football,
Speaker 3: Johnas Smith has been a rude awakening for the fantasy
Speaker 3: football shares for Andre Erickson.
Speaker 4: But last week was good.
Speaker 3: The only thing was Johnny Smith still had more targets
Speaker 3: than Jaalen Waddle, despite Wattle having a breakout game a
Speaker 3: season high across the board, Johnah Smith was still the
Speaker 3: number one receiver on the Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 4: Last week.
Speaker 3: He had nine targets in the first half alone, with
Speaker 3: four red zone targets. He finished with eleven targets overall
Speaker 3: over the last month. He's the team's leader and target
Speaker 3: share and I absolutely love the matchup here for Johns
Speaker 3: Smith against the Green Bay Packers. I cited this when
Speaker 3: we're talking about George Kittle and his over last week,
Speaker 3: which hit he flew over his number and it got
Speaker 3: suppressed after brock Berry got ruled out. But these Green
Speaker 3: Bay Packers linebackers, they can't cover tight ends. There's some
Speaker 3: of the worst coverage linebackers in the NFL. So I
Speaker 3: think Johnny Smith is just going to continue to cook
Speaker 3: here with Twa getting the ball out quick, that's his guy.
Speaker 3: So Jonah Smith has gone over this number in six
Speaker 3: of his last seven games, and I see no reason
Speaker 3: as the pseudo number one receiver on the Dolphins that
Speaker 3: he's not going to continue to cook here. So give
Speaker 3: me the over on Johnny Smith.
Speaker 1: I have to say the last prop you have feels
Speaker 1: like you are, you know, hal be a little too
Speaker 1: much cocktails, maybe during Thanksgiving, a little too much of
Speaker 1: the trip to fan Maybe you're kind of, you know,
Speaker 1: feeling weird because it has to do with Odell Beckham
Speaker 1: scoring a touchdown.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for those those tuning, Oto Beckham is on the Dolphins,
Speaker 3: so we're all the same pages on the Packers. Hey,
Speaker 3: you know it's been it's been a while for Otobeckham Junior.
Speaker 3: But I actually wrote Oto Beckham Junior last week in
Speaker 3: my new article for any Time Touchdowns my favorite bets
Speaker 3: of the week because he's seen a red zone targets
Speaker 3: and I thought my process was sound because against the Patriots,
Speaker 3: Odo Beckham Junior had three targets, two of which came
Speaker 3: in the red zone. He had a target in the
Speaker 3: end zone.
Speaker 2: I mean I saw him almost have one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm closed to scoring a touchdown. So I was like, hey,
Speaker 3: the process was right, maybe just a week too early.
Speaker 3: So now the odds have shifted even more. My favorite.
Speaker 3: Now it's plus eight to fifty instead of the plus
Speaker 3: seven hundred from last week. He's gonna get a red
Speaker 3: zone target and a plus a fifty give to me, Obj.
Speaker 3: He's gonna score in prime time under the light seat.
Speaker 3: See Odell Beckham doesn't score at one pm on Eastern Time.
Speaker 3: He's gotta have everyone watching for him to finally make
Speaker 3: that one handed catch when he could leave a catch
Speaker 3: with two hands. Yeah, Obj and the cold, even if
Speaker 3: it's in garbage time, Yeah, I think we'll we just
Speaker 3: get to catch one.
Speaker 1: Book end to the day to Montgomery plus four seventy
Speaker 1: first touchdown at the end of the night. Right was
Speaker 1: you're leaving the house of your grandparents house for Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1: There you go, boom b O'Dell Beckham good night everybody,
Speaker 1: and you walk out the door with the plus eight
Speaker 1: hundred bet there all right, bogs uh for you? You
Speaker 1: want to start to a tongue of Viailoa and the
Speaker 1: over on the one and a half passing touchdowns at
Speaker 1: plus money plus one.
Speaker 2: There's a chance on kle Bogman was taking a little
Speaker 2: too many gummies last night when he put this one
Speaker 2: in here, But to over one and a half. I
Speaker 2: like the number. It's plus one twenty five, so you're
Speaker 2: getting plus on this. It's clear and cold, which is
Speaker 2: usually pretty good for passing. And I know it's against
Speaker 2: the Raiders and the Patriots, but he has had seven
Speaker 2: touchdowns in the last two passing touchdowns the last two weeks.
Speaker 2: JayR Alexander is still most likely down repairing this with
Speaker 2: an OBJ touchdown. That can be one of them. He's
Speaker 2: got explosive playmakers all over the field. He threw two
Speaker 2: to Devin h Chain last week. So I like this
Speaker 2: over one and a half because you're getting a nice
Speaker 2: plus one twenty five number here.
Speaker 1: Okay, there you go, And last here Jalen Wattle speak
Speaker 1: of the devil. He shall up here. Longest reception nineteen
Speaker 1: and a half yards bogs. You're taking the over.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, look Ericson is here. I do shows with Welsh.
Speaker 2: I have to get on this, yeah, Jay, then wattle
Speaker 2: train at some point it last week?
Speaker 1: Did you ladder it last week?
Speaker 2: It's not over.
Speaker 4: That happened that he did something for all my fantasy team.
Speaker 1: He only has this.
Speaker 2: You know, you're only watching for one catch to go
Speaker 2: over nineteen and a half yards for him in this one,
Speaker 2: and he's gone over this in three straight weeks, and
Speaker 2: seven of eleven games this season is eight dot eleven
Speaker 2: point eight or higher than three of the last four games.
Speaker 2: The Packers have the fourth most mistackles this season, so
Speaker 2: there's a chance that he catches one and takes it
Speaker 2: for a while. And forty three of his yak his
Speaker 2: yards have to catch have happened in the last three
Speaker 2: weeks of the season here, So they're drawing him up
Speaker 2: someplace and not only catch it, but to catch it
Speaker 2: and go, and they're going to be playing from behind
Speaker 2: against Green Bay. We all kind of agree with that.
Speaker 2: So I think that this over nineteen and a half
Speaker 2: is a solid number. And I've I think I've gotten
Speaker 2: most of these on our Thursday night calls this year, Joey, so.
Speaker 1: I already go with him. No, definitely, you have actually
Speaker 1: been very good with these all right, let's get to
Speaker 1: the Turkey Day parlay for Thanksgiving weeks three, and I'm
Speaker 1: gonna start with the covering that's right, covering the Giant
Speaker 1: minus ten and a half. Here. Look the Detroit Lions,
Speaker 1: or the class of the NFC, and every time they
Speaker 1: have a lesser opponent, they absolutely remind you why they're
Speaker 1: a lesser opponent. They continue to beat the crap out
Speaker 1: of lesser teams, especially in their own building. And I
Speaker 1: think they're gonna put on a show and they're gonna
Speaker 1: run up the score because that's what Dan Campbell does.
Speaker 1: So let's start there. Then we'll go to Dallas for
Speaker 1: part two in the later afternoon, give you the Cowboys
Speaker 1: on the money line, because the Giants are folding up
Speaker 1: the tents, Ladies and gentlemen, it's over. The new regime
Speaker 1: is probably going to be coming into New York and
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna beat the Cowboys on the
Speaker 1: road this week. And then lastly, Tua in the cold
Speaker 1: has not been good and the Green Bay Packers start
Speaker 1: to put things together now Jordan Love's got to stop
Speaker 1: trying so hard to be perfect, because when he does,
Speaker 1: he starts making mistakes. Just go out there, play fast
Speaker 1: and loose. I know the Dolphins have played much better recently,
Speaker 1: but I don't trust Miami to go to the cold
Speaker 1: evening of Green Bay. So give me the green Bay
Speaker 1: Hackers minus the three and a half. If you put
Speaker 1: all three together, you get plus five hundred. Baby. That's it,
Speaker 1: five to one. That is your Turkey Day parlay for
Speaker 1: Week thirteen, gentlemen. Always a fantastic time hanging out with you, guys.
Speaker 1: I hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving. Enjoy the food,
Speaker 1: the family, and the fun, and hopefully a little bit
Speaker 1: of cash too. That'll do it for us, But the
Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for Scott Bogman and
Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson. I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids.
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