1 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's down to place 2 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: your bets. It's me Joey p joe Pisapia and this 3 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: is the VP NFL Thanksgiving Special. That's right, Just like 4 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: Randy Marsh, we've been working on a very special special 5 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 1: for you for Thanksgiving. You're sitting around with your family, overeating, 6 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 1: arguing about well, probably everything. The best thing you can 7 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: do is just put together some bets, sit back, watch 8 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 1: some games and make some money. And to help us 9 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 1: get the right bets at the right time. Of course, 10 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: two of my best friends, Andrew Erics in the Undertaker 11 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:33,239 Speaker 1: and my boy Scott Bogman, and we're going to go 12 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 1: through the games one by one and then talk about 13 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: some of the props too. But first to the games. 14 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 1: If you have it already, make sure you download the 15 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: Betting Pros app again. Sink your sportsbooks for free, everybody, 16 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: and you get the trial going on right now of 17 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 1: the premium tools over at Betting Pros. That's what you 18 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: want to do, and don't forget we're also still giving 19 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 1: away free stuff. Still a few days left, not many, 20 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 1: but the Mike Evans signed Buccaneers helmet is still up 21 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: for grabs so Pristine auction dot com. All you need 22 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:04,559 Speaker 1: to go do is head to Bettingpros dot com slash contest, 23 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 1: complete the form and either download the Betting Pros app, 24 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:09,960 Speaker 1: leave a review of the Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe 25 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 1: to our social media channels at Betting Pros on X, 26 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: on TikTok and Betting Pros NFL on the IG. The 27 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 1: more actions you complete, the more entries you receive, and 28 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: we'll announcing the winner right here on the channel. So 29 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 1: make sure you turn on those notifications so you can 30 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: be alerted when the new episodes are up, and you 31 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: can claim your prize with the Mike Evans helmet and 32 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: we can give that away for Christmas time too. All right, 33 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 1: let's start things off here with the Detroit Lions and 34 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:33,559 Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears. Ten and a half is the number 35 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,320 Speaker 1: year in favor of the Detroit Lions. Forty eight and 36 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: a half is the number here of the total plus 37 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 1: four thirty four Chicago Bears upset. If there's one thing 38 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 1: I think, boys, that we've learned in I've said it 39 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 1: on these shows in the last few times we've had 40 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: double digit spreads against the Lions. Here where the Lions 41 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: take care of business. Dan Campbell does not understand the 42 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: word trap game. He doesn't understand the words let up breaks. 43 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 1: His cars have none, It's all just gas. And then 44 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 1: sometimes he slows down just enough to get back into 45 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 1: his garage at night. So, Bogs, are you comfortable with 46 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 1: the ten and a half? I want to start there? 47 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 2: No, not really, I'm gonna take I'm gonna take the 48 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 2: points here. Look, it's it's a Thursday game. It's a 49 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 2: weird game. And I actually kind of like the way 50 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 2: Chicago has been playing since making this change at OC 51 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 2: And Yeah, I think we've seen Caleb Williams put together 52 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 2: some decent drives here. He should have had a game 53 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 2: winning drive against Washington and the hail Mary ruined that. 54 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 2: He should have had a game winning drive against the 55 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 2: Packers and the field goal got blocked and he had 56 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 2: a drive to come back inside the game last week. 57 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 2: I think, Uh, Chicago's been competitive, They've been keeping it close. 58 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 2: He's just been on the wrong end of the stick 59 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. Doesn't mean that that's how it's 60 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 2: gonna play. Like I say every single week for Thursday, 61 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 2: don't play the game, lay the props The games are weird, 62 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 2: they're strange, they can get lopsided, but I like Chicago and. 63 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: This one plus the play. They agree typically with you. 64 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: The games can get weird, but look, Dan Campbell, I 65 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 1: don't know, I feel comfortable with these points. Every time 66 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 1: they get one of these slapp nut teams coming in, 67 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 1: they're just way out of their I. 68 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 2: Just don't think Chicago's is not like Jacksonville. Okay, but 69 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 2: I don't think Chicago's one of those teams Titans. 70 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 3: Well, neither of those teams are division opponents their division. 71 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: That's that that's the route you want to take, all right, 72 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 1: americ I feel you're building a narrative. Go ahead, tell 73 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 1: me why I'm not. 74 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:26,959 Speaker 4: I'm not pickingside because it's a divisional matchup. 75 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 3: I'm not going I'm not going to fall into the 76 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 3: traffic Commanders Cowboys from last week where it's some weird, 77 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 3: wacky divisional games Steelers Browns on Thursday night. 78 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 4: I'm not doing this. 79 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 3: So I'm just taking the over because we're playing this 80 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 3: game in Detroit, and this is where game, this is 81 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 3: where point totals thrive and they fly above soar into 82 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 3: the clouds. So looking at the average children the Lion's 83 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,119 Speaker 3: last twenty four home games, so this is going back 84 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 3: season after season, the average has been nearly fifty five points. 85 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 3: Seventy five percent of the games have scored at least 86 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 3: fifty one points. So we're getting any spread or a 87 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 3: total forty eight and a half points. We know the 88 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 3: Lions can cover this on their own. They've done it 89 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 3: the last two home games against the aforementioned Tennessee Titans 90 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 3: and Jacksonville Jaguar, so Chicago could be maybe an even 91 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 3: show up and we can still hit the over in 92 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:12,839 Speaker 3: this game. 93 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 4: And I haven't even sweat who wins. I just want points. 94 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 3: That's what I want on my plate at twelve thirty 95 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 3: PM when I'm watching this game. I want points. So 96 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 3: given how good the Bears offense has looked over the 97 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 3: last two weeks, I think they can do at least 98 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,799 Speaker 3: something in this game to keep it pedal to the medal, 99 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 3: keep Dan Campbell trying to score. 100 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 4: So I love the over in this game more than side. 101 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 2: Eric Erickson wants a second helping of points, not to tortadoes. 102 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 1: Can I get some more en points? That's what I want. 103 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:41,039 Speaker 1: You know, if you've parlayed those, if you parlay the 104 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 1: Lions on the money line. I'm just looking at this. 105 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: The Lions that cover the spread and the over on 106 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: the points forty eight and a half, you actually get 107 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 1: this a plus two to fifty, which is kind of fun, 108 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 1: just saying, you know, if you just want to go 109 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: for the clean sweep and you want to take the 110 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 1: best of all of us here, you know, put them 111 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 1: all to one thing and maybe we're all right in 112 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 1: some way. That would be nice. All right, let's get 113 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 1: to the next game here, because we have to. We're contract. 114 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 1: It's the New York Giants against the Dallas Cowboys. Tommy DeVito, 115 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: uh though, turkey for Thanksgiving. All cutlets, baby, all chicken cutlets. 116 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 1: Four and a half is the number in this game. 117 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:16,680 Speaker 1: Dallas is favored by four at home. Cooper Rush coming 118 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:19,359 Speaker 1: off or you believe one of his better performances in 119 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 1: his NFL career, thirty nine and a half is the number. 120 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 1: Plus one sixty five for the Giants on the money line. 121 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:29,280 Speaker 1: So ericson in Division games, something gonna get wacky here 122 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 1: or the g man gonna pull something out of this turkey. 123 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 1: I don't know what, but it could be a w. 124 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 3: If Drew Locke plays, it definitely could be a w 125 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:41,600 Speaker 3: because Tommy DeVito is now questionable to play in this game. 126 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 3: He has soreness in his throwing arm because he was just. 127 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 1: Oh I hurt myself. I can't move anymore. 128 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 3: So I mean, I'm not gonna bet on Dallas here. 129 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 3: So again, if you make me pick aside, I would 130 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 3: take the Giants with the points. Going back to talking 131 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 3: about divisional matchups, and if Drew Locke is a starter, 132 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 3: luck the better quarterback than Tommy DeVito. Tommy DeVito is 133 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 3: a thirsteon quarterback for a reason, So I think that 134 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,760 Speaker 3: this gives the Giants hope and advantage. I mean, Drew 135 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 3: Locke would be really motivated to play because he came 136 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 3: to New York thinking that hey, I'll get a chance 137 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 3: to play here, and they're like, oh sorry, we're gonna 138 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 3: cut the start and then go right to mister Italian himself, 139 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 3: Tommy DeVito, because we need to lose games so we 140 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 3: get a high draft pick. So but if he's out, 141 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 3: I think that makes a big difference. I think that 142 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:25,279 Speaker 3: Lock versus Cooper Rush is much more an even matchup 143 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 3: than DeVito versus Cooper Rush. So if the Locke plays. 144 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 3: I'm cool laying the points of the Giants, but for me, 145 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 3: I just want to bet the under of the game 146 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 3: thirty seven and a half points. 147 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 4: Zoom out right every day. 148 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 3: When you look back at Dallas traditionally what they've done 149 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 3: at home, most of their games have gone over the total. 150 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 3: You know what team never goes over the total? The 151 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 3: New York Giants. This is a team that drags every 152 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 3: single game through the mud. And you're going to see 153 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 3: some regression here with Dallas's home games always going over 154 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:53,279 Speaker 3: the total. Well, their explosive offense is long gone. You 155 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 3: look at the Giants, what's their biggest weakness in their past? 156 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 3: Secondary deep passes? You know who does it throw the 157 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 3: ball deep rush? 158 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:01,160 Speaker 1: He does not. 159 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 4: He's not attack downfield whatsoever. 160 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 3: So this will be a low scoring game, whether it's lock, 161 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 3: whether it's rush, And in a low scoring game, usually 162 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 3: want to be on the side of the underdog. 163 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 4: So I'll take the Giants to the points. Ultimately. 164 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 3: Do you think that Dallas gets their first home victory 165 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 3: of the year. But I don't think it's gonna be 166 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 3: more than byfield goal. 167 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: You know, it's funny. I think the one element you're 168 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 1: just missing out on This is against with a local flavor, 169 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 1: which I'm gonna add here being a local in this 170 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: New Jersey tri state area. The incredible negative comments right 171 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 1: now coming out of all the Giants players, which is 172 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: again a very telling thing of when they like Daniel Jones. 173 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 2: They didn't want to see it. 174 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: They seem to like Daniel Jones. They don't like the 175 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 1: way this was handled by the coaches and the GM 176 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 1: And when you lose a team, you sometimes then lose 177 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 1: a lot of games, and it feels like that's what's 178 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: starting to happen here. Bugs. You know, it doesn't It 179 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: doesn't help that you lost. And then at night everybody 180 00:07:57,560 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: went home and they all watched Saquon Barkley run for 181 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 1: five thousand and seventy two yards against the Rams, Like 182 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: that didn't help. 183 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 2: I mean, does Daniel Jones not have the opportunity to 184 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 2: do the funniest thing ever and sign with the Philadelphia Eagles. 185 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 2: It would just be so good. It would be so good. 186 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 2: He'd be there with Saquwan, he's a good teammate, and 187 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 2: it would piss off Kenny Pickett so much. I would 188 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 2: love it. It would be my favorite thing in the world. 189 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 2: But I'm with Erickson in this game. Let's just take 190 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 2: the under. Drew Locke is a statue Tomy DeVito can't 191 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 2: throw the ball down field. Cooper Rush isn't throwing the 192 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 2: ball down field. They have no running game in Dallas. 193 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 2: The offensive line is a mess. This is a great 194 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 2: front seven for the Giants. The Cowboys defense is so 195 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 2: much better with Micah Parsons. I mean, I just this 196 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 2: is an underplay easy for me. This is probably my 197 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 2: favorite pick of the day. And I don't like playing 198 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 2: sides or totals on Thursday games, but that one seems 199 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 2: pretty nice to me. 200 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,559 Speaker 3: What you can do, too, is if you tee, if 201 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 3: you bring it down to Cowboys money line and then 202 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,319 Speaker 3: you bring up the total two forty five and a half, 203 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 3: you combine those you get minus one oh five. 204 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 2: I like it. 205 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 4: Here you go. That was something I was looking. 206 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:07,679 Speaker 3: I was like, Okay, like, I think again, I think 207 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 3: the Cowboys are gonna win, and I get a forty 208 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 3: five and a half point total to work with. 209 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 4: Take the under on that. 210 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 1: Okay, there you go, all right? Last one here is 211 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: the evening game in Chili Chili, Green Bay, Wisconsin. Green 212 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: Bay at night in November sounds like the perfect spin 213 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 1: for the I mean Dolphins, right, sounds like the perfect 214 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 1: spot for two a Teglailo, who has not played well 215 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 1: in these cold weather games, whether it be Buffalo or 216 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 1: green Bay, over the years. So here we go. The 217 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,120 Speaker 1: green Bay Packer is minus three at home, forty seven 218 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:36,719 Speaker 1: and a half coming off of butt kicking of the 219 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: forty nine ers, plus one forty five here on the 220 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 1: Miami money line, which is tempting but hard pass for me. 221 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 1: I'm keeping this one real easy. Here, give me green 222 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: Bay with the three Bogs. 223 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 2: Your thoughts, yeah, I mean, I just I keep thinking 224 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 2: of that meme of the Latin lady who moved to 225 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 2: Michigan or whatever from ninety day Fiance who is like, 226 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 2: I was not built for this weather. I cannot believe 227 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 2: people live in this. This is disgusting. I think that's 228 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 2: what the Dolphins are gonna be saying, going to Green 229 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 2: Bay in a late November game here like they did 230 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 2: against Kansas City in the playoffs last year. So I 231 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 2: think I'd take Green Bay as well. 232 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 1: You know, I had never seen that show before my 233 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 1: whole life. 234 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,679 Speaker 2: And I've still never seen it. I've only seen these lives. Well, 235 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 2: I have now. 236 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 1: This summer, we were flipping on the channels and my 237 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 1: two teenage daughters like, stop a second, well, I want 238 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 1: to see that, and we started watching it. It is 239 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:33,440 Speaker 1: the dumbest, most ridiculous program, and yet you can't look away. 240 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 2: It is I've only seen the guy with no neck, 241 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 2: I've seen, and then. 242 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 1: We saw this one was like an older woman and 243 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 1: she had so much plastic surgery. I don't think she 244 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,080 Speaker 1: could feel emotions anymore. It just or at least her 245 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 1: face municate them. Yeah, or at least ericson. You still 246 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 1: got a lot of emotions and you what are your 247 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 1: feelings about this Green Bay Packer Miami Dolphin game. 248 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 4: I want to fade the Dolphins into oblivion. That's how 249 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 4: I feel about this game. They don't win as underdogs. 250 00:10:57,640 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 3: They are last eleven games as an underdog, they are 251 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 3: three and eight overall, five and nine against the spread. 252 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 3: They don't beat good teams the last time to they 253 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 3: so again against teams that have winning records. Last six games, 254 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 3: they have failed to cover the spread in five of them. 255 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:15,680 Speaker 3: So this has always been the stick with Miami. Mike McDaniel, 256 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:18,839 Speaker 3: they beat up on the bad teams. The Patriots, the Jets, 257 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:20,679 Speaker 3: these teams that nobody wants any part of, and then 258 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 3: they go on the road to play some of these 259 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 3: actual Playoff contending teams and they just don't deliver, and 260 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 3: then they don't show up. So, given the weather, given 261 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 3: all the things I've already kind of pointed out, I 262 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 3: just want to fade the Dolphins. 263 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 4: I'll take the Packers laying the points. Again. 264 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 3: I was thinking about this, would you rather if you 265 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 3: had to bet on one of these games, would rather 266 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 3: lay the points of the Packers of the Cowboys? 267 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:41,199 Speaker 4: Packers? Duh? 268 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:43,719 Speaker 3: That seems really obvious to me. When you're comparing you're 269 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 3: not going to bet on every single game. Take the 270 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 3: Packers or the spread. 271 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:47,439 Speaker 4: Essentially. 272 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:49,440 Speaker 1: Oh, I am stick to the end for the Turkey 273 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 1: Day parlay, which, by the way, last year we hit, 274 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 1: so now we've set a precedent. We got to go 275 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: to for two. Last year we hit the Turkey Day Parlay. 276 00:11:57,960 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: It was a good one. I think I got one 277 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 1: where you could watch each game and hopefully come away 278 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 1: with some money. And it's a big number too, And 279 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: I don't think it's absurd, I really don't. All Right, 280 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 1: let's get to some of the props and break down 281 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,840 Speaker 1: some of these right here. Ericson, let's start with the 282 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 1: Detroit Chicago game for you, walk me through the two 283 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 1: props that you like the most that you are in 284 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: on this weekend. 285 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, so I really like rom Adonza in this matchup 286 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 3: against the Detroit Lions. So the Lions this season have 287 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 3: been one of the worst teams against defending the slot. 288 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 3: And I know a lot of people look at, oh, well, 289 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 3: Keenan Allen, he's the main slot receiver for the s 290 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 3: Trago Bears, but Roma Dunsay actually plays a decent amount 291 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 3: of the slot as well, and he's been over thirty 292 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 3: nine receiving yards in seven straight games. Last week he 293 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 3: saw over one hundred air yards. I know that he 294 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 3: wasn't necessarily the guy who had the most production last week, 295 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,199 Speaker 3: but all the priffles were there for him. He was 296 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 3: still seeing a ton of volumes, still saw ten targets. 297 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,960 Speaker 3: And when you look at in terms of Dvoay against 298 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 3: number three wide receivers, Detroit Lions rank dead last in 299 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 3: the NFL in terms of total targets and yards to 300 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 3: number three wide receivers. Odunza is technically the number three 301 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 3: receiver on his team, so I think that this number 302 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 3: is way too low. We saw Caleb Williams go to 303 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:06,439 Speaker 3: a Douneesay last week in a key fourth down. They 304 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:08,559 Speaker 3: have a really good connection, and I think that a 305 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 3: dudes is going to have an explosion game here in 306 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:13,080 Speaker 3: the Dome. I like the over so I like somebody's 307 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 3: over on some of these props. A Donsay, I feel 308 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 3: like he kind of a flag plan as my guy 309 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 3: heading into this game, Okay. 310 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 1: And then David Montgomery, he's been a touchdown machine. You 311 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 1: have a different approach taking the first touchdown, which is 312 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 1: a pretty big number. Plus four seventy. I mean, if 313 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:29,440 Speaker 1: that comes through Thanksgiving holiday, is already a good time. 314 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, if you had to. 315 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 3: But he's the most likely to score at the first 316 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 3: touchdout right, and I mean we know right, like you. 317 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: Know, you know it's it's gonna be it's gonna be 318 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 1: the most obvious one or the one where you're like 319 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: that guy's still in a roster in the NFL. I 320 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 1: love that Jared Golfs this week too. I remember at 321 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 1: the end of the game, to the guy who caught 322 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:52,199 Speaker 1: the touchdown, the Malik Heath, I. 323 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:56,679 Speaker 2: Was like Malik Heath Pride in Mississippi State stop it any. 324 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 3: Week, So I like Monk, well, I don't want to, 325 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 3: you know, for him to get any time touchdown. Dave 326 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 3: Montgomery's like minus two twenty right, okay, so you know 327 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 3: he's gonna score. So we know who's gonna score first, right, 328 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 3: probably the Lions. So I'm just kind of like putting 329 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 3: math together and like, yeah, I get that the odds 330 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 3: are because that has to be the first touchdown, but 331 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 3: Devevi Montgomery's playing his old team, Chicago Bears. You don't 332 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 3: think that Dan Campbell knows that we'll get a good 333 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 3: guy touchdown. The last six regular season home games, Den 334 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 3: Montgomery scored a touchdown. So I'm trying to get a 335 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 3: bigger payout for what if the first happen. 336 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 1: He's played them, like he's been with the Lions for 337 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: you know, he's. 338 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 3: Played and I'm sure that he scored touchdowns and all 339 00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 3: those other other games too. 340 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: Like it's like the Simpsons met Stop Stopping's dead. 341 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 3: Okay, but I think it's more like a fifty to 342 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 3: fifty shot of it's gonna be either Gibbs or Montgomery. 343 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 3: So if you're Dan Campbell A, you're gonna give it 344 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 3: to Gibbs first, or just give it to Montgom Like, hey, 345 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 3: let's get my money's touchdown, he gets his old team, 346 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 3: and then we'll we'll be cooking. 347 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 4: So yeah, Dean Montgomery for me first touchdown and then when. 348 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 1: Brock Wright scores everybody, you could be miserable for the 349 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 1: rest of the afternoon. Uh, let's go to your picks here. 350 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: Let's start with kayleb Williams two twenty seven and a 351 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 1: half passing yards. Are you going over or under that box? 352 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 2: Let's go with the end the old This team has 353 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 2: been so much better without Shane Waltron at the helm. 354 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 2: Qbs have hit this marker versus Detroit in seven of 355 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 2: eleven games. The guys that didn't hit it a Rich 356 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 2: mac Jones, Dak Murray, and Mayfield. Early in the season. 357 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:16,680 Speaker 2: Detroit is third and opposing team passing percentage because most 358 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 2: teams are playing from behind trying to come back against Detroit, 359 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 2: which as the favorite in this game. You know, the 360 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 2: Lions look to be leading late and I think Caleb 361 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 2: is going to be passing late. Three hundred ninety one 362 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 2: total yards versus Green Bay two weeks ago, green Bay 363 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 2: only gave up more to Philly in Week one and 364 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 2: three hundred and ninety eight total yards against Minnesota last week. 365 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 2: Only green Bay in Week four in San Francisco in 366 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 2: Week two had more versus Minnesota. This offense for Chicago 367 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 2: has looked much better under Thomas Brown than it did 368 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 2: with Shane Waldron. So I like this total to go over. 369 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 2: Let's hit. Let's hit I almost sad Keenan Allen. Let's 370 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 2: hit Roma Dunsa on our way to this total as well, ericson, 371 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 2: so we can both be right. Let's do it all right. 372 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 1: And Bobs, you've also got another one here. You've got 373 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 1: Jamison Williams two who forty six and a half is 374 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 1: the number for him on the receiving yards Mince one thirteen. 375 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: And since you are the man who always likes overs, 376 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 1: I assume this is an over as well. 377 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm the overtaker here. Top ten in a nine undertaking. 378 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, Now I'm the mayor of a city. Top 379 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 2: ten in a dot minimum forty targets that Jamis and 380 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 2: Williams top fifteen and yards per route run. Weird stat 381 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 2: of the day, one hundred and forty five fewer yards 382 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 2: than a manra on forty two fewer catches for Jamison Williams, 383 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 2: he's obviously explosive. He's gone over this total on one 384 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 2: catch in four games this season. In nine that he's played, 385 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 2: he's passed his total and in every game with at 386 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 2: least two catches seven of nine games he's had at 387 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 2: least two catches in Chicago's twenty eighth in yards per 388 00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 2: completion allowed. So let's go with the over on Jamison 389 00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 2: Williams receiving yards. 390 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,640 Speaker 1: Let's go to Dallas again and find some props. This time, 391 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 1: let's start with Rico Doubtle undertaker, take it away. 392 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:10,639 Speaker 3: Yes, I'm going under on fourteen and a half receiving 393 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 3: yards for Rico Daddles. So he's gone under this number 394 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,200 Speaker 3: in three straight games with Cooper Rush as quarterback. It's 395 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:18,640 Speaker 3: weird because you think, well, Cooper Rush is this check 396 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,640 Speaker 3: down savant like Cooper or Rico Dada should be eaten. 397 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 3: And yeah, he's seen decent amount of targets, but because 398 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,360 Speaker 3: the average of the target is so low it's negative 399 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:30,360 Speaker 3: three yards, he's not actual receiving yards on these receptions 400 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 3: because they're all behind the line of scrimmage. So this 401 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 3: This is a bet where we could lose. He could 402 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 3: get a big game, but then we could come back 403 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 3: to life and we could still get the the undertake. 404 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 3: It will literally rise for the under on this bet 405 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 3: to hit because Rico Dada will lose yardage on a catch. 406 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 3: So again I'm following the streaks here. Make it to 407 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 3: four under, fourteen and a half receiving yards for Rico 408 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:51,399 Speaker 3: doubtell and on Thanksgiving. 409 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 1: Now, that nice thing about Thanksgiving games is that you 410 00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 1: get those special bets out there too. There's always those 411 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:57,720 Speaker 1: like extra things that get thrown out there. And you 412 00:17:57,800 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: found one that's kind of intriguing around the elite neighbor. 413 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,439 Speaker 3: Yeah, I absolutely love this one. So my milaik neighbors 414 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 3: to catch a pass on the first drive plus one 415 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 3: hundred odds. I found this at Draft Kings sports Book. Look, 416 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,120 Speaker 3: I can all but guarantee he's gonna get a target 417 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 3: on the first drive. 418 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 2: Then it's up to should be the first play in 419 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 2: the game for them. 420 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 3: I mean, I feel pretty comfid he's gonna get the target. Now, 421 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:18,199 Speaker 3: will he catch that target if it is even in 422 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 3: his radio catch a bowl that is, will it be 423 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 3: catch a ball? And that's why it's called gambling because 424 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 3: it'd be a lot if it was. It would be 425 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,120 Speaker 3: a stone called lock if it was a target. 426 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 4: But it's not. 427 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:30,719 Speaker 3: We're betting on the leak neighbors catching one of these 428 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:32,959 Speaker 3: targets on the first drive, so plus one hundred. 429 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 4: See, this is how you get. This is how you 430 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 4: watch this game. 431 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:38,640 Speaker 3: Right, do you tune in for the first drive lak neighbors, Yes, 432 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 3: got the catch, Turn it off, go do something else. 433 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: So that's what Ergun told. Plan is just to watch 434 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:46,400 Speaker 1: the beginning of every game. Dave Montgomery touchdown, good, first 435 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 1: touch up, All right, I'm gonna go eat. First course, 436 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 1: he comes back there. Second course, my lak neighbors catches 437 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: the ball. All right, let's go and he keeps eating 438 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 1: all day hopefully. All right, let's talk about who Boggs 439 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:57,920 Speaker 1: thinks is gonna eat. Let's start with your first bet. 440 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,360 Speaker 1: THEO Johnson's where you're going? All right, Yeah, let's talk 441 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:00,679 Speaker 1: about this. 442 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,719 Speaker 2: I so I had originally put in here THEO Johnson 443 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 2: under and then went to go find my reasons, and 444 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,199 Speaker 2: when I was looking, I'm like, I have to go 445 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 2: over on this total. It's twenty five and a half yard. 446 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 2: So it's pretty low. He is a little bit nicked 447 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 2: up with this back injury, but I think he's going 448 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:18,120 Speaker 2: to play through it. He's passed his total in six 449 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 2: of the last seven games. He has had long receptions 450 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 2: of twenty two, fifteen, twenty five, thirty five, thirteen to 451 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 2: twenty three in those games his first percent his first 452 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 2: look percentage is up to twenty one point three percent 453 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,920 Speaker 2: over the last month, after being only ten point three 454 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 2: percent on this season, and with no Kendricks again this week. 455 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,959 Speaker 2: I love my boy the Marvin overshown, but he is 456 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 2: bad in coverage. He's had forty targets allowed thirty seven catches. 457 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 2: The ninety two point five reception percentage is the worst 458 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 2: among qualified linebackers, and Kendricks I believe is best in 459 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 2: completion percentage against, but he is likely not to be 460 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,680 Speaker 2: playing this game. So I think with over shown out there, 461 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:05,440 Speaker 2: with you know, check down Tommy or check down Drew 462 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 2: Locke the statue, I think I think THEO Johnson can 463 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 2: pass this if he gets two catches and. 464 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,439 Speaker 1: Then ceede Lamb a guy who obviously gets a lot 465 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 1: of targets to your going with the receiving yards over 466 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:17,640 Speaker 1: sixty seven and a half at minus one ten. 467 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he's gonna be locked up on the 468 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 2: rookie Andrew Phillips. Right, Andrew Phillips is the slot guy. 469 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 2: He plays most of his snaps out of the slot. 470 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,440 Speaker 2: We're gonna see a lot of seeding Lamb in this game. 471 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:31,119 Speaker 2: Six straight games with ten or more targets. He's fourth 472 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 2: in YAK, So I know a lot of guys catch 473 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 2: the ball and fall down. That's not CD and it's 474 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 2: the last couple of thanks Giving Day performances have been 475 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,440 Speaker 2: solid as well. Eleven six one oh six two years ago, 476 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 2: seventeen targets, twelve catches, one hundred and sixteen yards in 477 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,360 Speaker 2: a score last year, and in their last matchup earlier 478 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,680 Speaker 2: this year. Obviously it was with DAK, but he had 479 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 2: eight targets, seven catches, ninety eight yards in a score. 480 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,360 Speaker 2: So you know, I'm not for a lot of overs 481 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 2: in this game, but I think these two are okay. 482 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,360 Speaker 1: And when you're looking for props again, don't forget prop 483 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 1: bet cheat sheet. It's out there to give you all 484 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 1: the props for every game with the best lines and 485 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,159 Speaker 1: the best over unders there, so use it. Go to 486 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 1: bettingpros Dot com slash props or getting download the app 487 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: and just look for the prop bet cheat sheet. Let's 488 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 1: do Miami and Green Bay last, but not least here, 489 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 1: Let's start with john News Smith, who's become an intriguing 490 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,879 Speaker 1: part of this Miami Dolphins offense. And I don't know 491 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:24,120 Speaker 1: if anybody really saw coming. 492 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 4: I sure didn't. 493 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,120 Speaker 3: As someone that drafted Jalen Waddle aggressively in fantasy football, 494 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,879 Speaker 3: Johnas Smith has been a rude awakening for the fantasy 495 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 3: football shares for Andre Erickson. 496 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 4: But last week was good. 497 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,919 Speaker 3: The only thing was Johnny Smith still had more targets 498 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,159 Speaker 3: than Jaalen Waddle, despite Wattle having a breakout game a 499 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:43,000 Speaker 3: season high across the board, Johnah Smith was still the 500 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:44,679 Speaker 3: number one receiver on the Miami Dolphins. 501 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:45,160 Speaker 4: Last week. 502 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 3: He had nine targets in the first half alone, with 503 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 3: four red zone targets. He finished with eleven targets overall 504 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 3: over the last month. He's the team's leader and target 505 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 3: share and I absolutely love the matchup here for Johns 506 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 3: Smith against the Green Bay Packers. I cited this when 507 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,120 Speaker 3: we're talking about George Kittle and his over last week, 508 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 3: which hit he flew over his number and it got 509 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,680 Speaker 3: suppressed after brock Berry got ruled out. But these Green 510 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:09,239 Speaker 3: Bay Packers linebackers, they can't cover tight ends. There's some 511 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,119 Speaker 3: of the worst coverage linebackers in the NFL. So I 512 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 3: think Johnny Smith is just going to continue to cook 513 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,640 Speaker 3: here with Twa getting the ball out quick, that's his guy. 514 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 3: So Jonah Smith has gone over this number in six 515 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,680 Speaker 3: of his last seven games, and I see no reason 516 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 3: as the pseudo number one receiver on the Dolphins that 517 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:26,400 Speaker 3: he's not going to continue to cook here. So give 518 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 3: me the over on Johnny Smith. 519 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:29,920 Speaker 1: I have to say the last prop you have feels 520 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,239 Speaker 1: like you are, you know, hal be a little too 521 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:37,000 Speaker 1: much cocktails, maybe during Thanksgiving, a little too much of 522 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:38,960 Speaker 1: the trip to fan Maybe you're kind of, you know, 523 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 1: feeling weird because it has to do with Odell Beckham 524 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:42,200 Speaker 1: scoring a touchdown. 525 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:44,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, for those those tuning, Oto Beckham is on the Dolphins, 526 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 3: so we're all the same pages on the Packers. Hey, 527 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 3: you know it's been it's been a while for Otobeckham Junior. 528 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 3: But I actually wrote Oto Beckham Junior last week in 529 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 3: my new article for any Time Touchdowns my favorite bets 530 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 3: of the week because he's seen a red zone targets 531 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 3: and I thought my process was sound because against the Patriots, 532 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 3: Odo Beckham Junior had three targets, two of which came 533 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 3: in the red zone. He had a target in the 534 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 3: end zone. 535 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 2: I mean I saw him almost have one. 536 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm closed to scoring a touchdown. So I was like, hey, 537 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 3: the process was right, maybe just a week too early. 538 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:17,919 Speaker 3: So now the odds have shifted even more. My favorite. 539 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:19,880 Speaker 3: Now it's plus eight to fifty instead of the plus 540 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 3: seven hundred from last week. He's gonna get a red 541 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 3: zone target and a plus a fifty give to me, Obj. 542 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,440 Speaker 3: He's gonna score in prime time under the light seat. 543 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,360 Speaker 3: See Odell Beckham doesn't score at one pm on Eastern Time. 544 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:33,159 Speaker 3: He's gotta have everyone watching for him to finally make 545 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 3: that one handed catch when he could leave a catch 546 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,760 Speaker 3: with two hands. Yeah, Obj and the cold, even if 547 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 3: it's in garbage time, Yeah, I think we'll we just 548 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:39,960 Speaker 3: get to catch one. 549 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,280 Speaker 1: Book end to the day to Montgomery plus four seventy 550 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 1: first touchdown at the end of the night. Right was 551 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,879 Speaker 1: you're leaving the house of your grandparents house for Thanksgiving. 552 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,200 Speaker 1: There you go, boom b O'Dell Beckham good night everybody, 553 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 1: and you walk out the door with the plus eight 554 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: hundred bet there all right, bogs uh for you? You 555 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,159 Speaker 1: want to start to a tongue of Viailoa and the 556 00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:58,919 Speaker 1: over on the one and a half passing touchdowns at 557 00:23:58,920 --> 00:23:59,920 Speaker 1: plus money plus one. 558 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 2: There's a chance on kle Bogman was taking a little 559 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 2: too many gummies last night when he put this one 560 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:08,199 Speaker 2: in here, But to over one and a half. I 561 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 2: like the number. It's plus one twenty five, so you're 562 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 2: getting plus on this. It's clear and cold, which is 563 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 2: usually pretty good for passing. And I know it's against 564 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 2: the Raiders and the Patriots, but he has had seven 565 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,639 Speaker 2: touchdowns in the last two passing touchdowns the last two weeks. 566 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 2: JayR Alexander is still most likely down repairing this with 567 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 2: an OBJ touchdown. That can be one of them. He's 568 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 2: got explosive playmakers all over the field. He threw two 569 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:36,159 Speaker 2: to Devin h Chain last week. So I like this 570 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 2: over one and a half because you're getting a nice 571 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 2: plus one twenty five number here. 572 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 1: Okay, there you go, And last here Jalen Wattle speak 573 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,719 Speaker 1: of the devil. He shall up here. Longest reception nineteen 574 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,640 Speaker 1: and a half yards bogs. You're taking the over. 575 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, look Ericson is here. I do shows with Welsh. 576 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 2: I have to get on this, yeah, Jay, then wattle 577 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 2: train at some point it last week? 578 00:24:58,240 --> 00:24:59,359 Speaker 1: Did you ladder it last week? 579 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 2: It's not over. 580 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 4: That happened that he did something for all my fantasy team. 581 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:05,440 Speaker 1: He only has this. 582 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:07,639 Speaker 2: You know, you're only watching for one catch to go 583 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,440 Speaker 2: over nineteen and a half yards for him in this one, 584 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,439 Speaker 2: and he's gone over this in three straight weeks, and 585 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 2: seven of eleven games this season is eight dot eleven 586 00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:20,360 Speaker 2: point eight or higher than three of the last four games. 587 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:24,919 Speaker 2: The Packers have the fourth most mistackles this season, so 588 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 2: there's a chance that he catches one and takes it 589 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,439 Speaker 2: for a while. And forty three of his yak his 590 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 2: yards have to catch have happened in the last three 591 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 2: weeks of the season here, So they're drawing him up 592 00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,199 Speaker 2: someplace and not only catch it, but to catch it 593 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,720 Speaker 2: and go, and they're going to be playing from behind 594 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 2: against Green Bay. We all kind of agree with that. 595 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 2: So I think that this over nineteen and a half 596 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 2: is a solid number. And I've I think I've gotten 597 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,360 Speaker 2: most of these on our Thursday night calls this year, Joey, so. 598 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,359 Speaker 1: I already go with him. No, definitely, you have actually 599 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 1: been very good with these all right, let's get to 600 00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:00,640 Speaker 1: the Turkey Day parlay for Thanksgiving weeks three, and I'm 601 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,960 Speaker 1: gonna start with the covering that's right, covering the Giant 602 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,679 Speaker 1: minus ten and a half. Here. Look the Detroit Lions, 603 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,199 Speaker 1: or the class of the NFC, and every time they 604 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,720 Speaker 1: have a lesser opponent, they absolutely remind you why they're 605 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 1: a lesser opponent. They continue to beat the crap out 606 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,720 Speaker 1: of lesser teams, especially in their own building. And I 607 00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 1: think they're gonna put on a show and they're gonna 608 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:24,880 Speaker 1: run up the score because that's what Dan Campbell does. 609 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,399 Speaker 1: So let's start there. Then we'll go to Dallas for 610 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 1: part two in the later afternoon, give you the Cowboys 611 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,960 Speaker 1: on the money line, because the Giants are folding up 612 00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,919 Speaker 1: the tents, Ladies and gentlemen, it's over. The new regime 613 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 1: is probably going to be coming into New York and 614 00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:39,440 Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna beat the Cowboys on the 615 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 1: road this week. And then lastly, Tua in the cold 616 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 1: has not been good and the Green Bay Packers start 617 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,240 Speaker 1: to put things together now Jordan Love's got to stop 618 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,680 Speaker 1: trying so hard to be perfect, because when he does, 619 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 1: he starts making mistakes. Just go out there, play fast 620 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 1: and loose. I know the Dolphins have played much better recently, 621 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,959 Speaker 1: but I don't trust Miami to go to the cold 622 00:26:58,040 --> 00:26:59,919 Speaker 1: evening of Green Bay. So give me the green Bay 623 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,120 Speaker 1: Hackers minus the three and a half. If you put 624 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,880 Speaker 1: all three together, you get plus five hundred. Baby. That's it, 625 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,639 Speaker 1: five to one. That is your Turkey Day parlay for 626 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:12,720 Speaker 1: Week thirteen, gentlemen. Always a fantastic time hanging out with you, guys. 627 00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 1: I hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving. Enjoy the food, 628 00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:18,640 Speaker 1: the family, and the fun, and hopefully a little bit 629 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 1: of cash too. That'll do it for us, But the 630 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for Scott Bogman and 631 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson. I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids. 632 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 633 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,240 Speaker 2: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 634 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,679 Speaker 2: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 635 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 2: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 636 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:42,320 Speaker 2: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 637 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 2: channel at YouTube dot com. Slash Betting Pros