1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:12,399
Speaker 2: This is the Big Big dayba QT podcast. Good morning,

3
00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,240
Speaker 2: It's Wenesday, the tenth of December. I'm Caroline Hepkeitt in

4
00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:16,239
Speaker 2: London and.

5
00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:19,599
Speaker 3: I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today, the Federal Reserve

6
00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:22,680
Speaker 3: is expected to cut interest rates, but investors wonder what

7
00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:24,360
Speaker 3: the Central Bank will do next.

8
00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:29,960
Speaker 2: France's National Assembly narrowly approves social security legislation in a

9
00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:31,080
Speaker 2: win for the government.

10
00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:35,320
Speaker 3: Plus Australia implements a world first social media ban for

11
00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:36,640
Speaker 3: under sixteen's.

12
00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:39,239
Speaker 2: Let's start with a round up of our top stories.

13
00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:43,600
Speaker 3: Federal Reserve officials are expected to deliver a third consecutive

14
00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:47,600
Speaker 3: rate cut later today, but concerns about inflation and differing

15
00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:50,599
Speaker 3: views on the Fed's board will probably prevent Charge your

16
00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,920
Speaker 3: Own Pal from signaling any further moves early next year.

17
00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:57,680
Speaker 3: Several policymakers believe rates are already at a neutral level,

18
00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:01,280
Speaker 3: which neither spurs nor constrains grow Chris Weston, had of

19
00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:07,120
Speaker 3: research at Pepperstone Groups, says investors aren't anticipating any significant developments.

20
00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:10,000
Speaker 4: The markets are not expecting fireworks from this, and I

21
00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:14,240
Speaker 4: think it's so conditional that the rate cuts priced in.

22
00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,320
Speaker 4: Everyone's positioned for this hawkish cut and there's going to

23
00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:19,920
Speaker 4: be no change with to SCPs and stuff various factors.

24
00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:22,240
Speaker 4: So you know, I think as long as they are

25
00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:25,520
Speaker 4: open minded to further cuts, if they needed to happen,

26
00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:28,360
Speaker 4: then I think we're okay with that situation.

27
00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,600
Speaker 3: Pepperstone Groups Chris Weston was speaking as Wall Street traders

28
00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,120
Speaker 3: have put off placing big bets as they wait for

29
00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:37,560
Speaker 3: clues on the Fed's path for next year. Money markets

30
00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:41,080
Speaker 3: are now pricing in only around two cuts. In twenty twenty.

31
00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:45,480
Speaker 2: Six, France's National Assembly has approved a social security bill

32
00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,560
Speaker 2: for next year, marking a win for the government. Two

33
00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,520
Speaker 2: hundred and forty seven lawmakers voted for the proposal and

34
00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:55,160
Speaker 2: two hundred and thirty four against. After a final vote

35
00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:58,440
Speaker 2: by the Senate, it will suspend presence arounder In McCall's

36
00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:03,240
Speaker 2: pension reform, a key concession to the Socialist Party. Speaking

37
00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:08,600
Speaker 2: before the decision, Jeffrey's economist Madupe Agabembo says the future

38
00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:13,080
Speaker 2: for the French economy is still precarious going forward.

39
00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:15,400
Speaker 5: We still have this uncertainty and that's why we remain

40
00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:18,519
Speaker 5: negative on the French outlook because even if we limp forward,

41
00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:23,840
Speaker 5: these underlying structural issues remain there. And also it means

42
00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,919
Speaker 5: that the kind of fiscal and consolidation that France needs

43
00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:27,359
Speaker 5: to live.

44
00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:30,079
Speaker 3: It's becoming a lot more challenging.

45
00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:34,919
Speaker 2: So that was the Jeffreys economist and Madupe Ada Bembo

46
00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:39,600
Speaker 2: speaking their too Bloomberg Television. Adoption of the Social Security

47
00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:43,120
Speaker 2: Bill makes it more likely that lawmakers will pass a

48
00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:45,760
Speaker 2: new budget by the end of the year, which Parliament

49
00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,639
Speaker 2: will start debating on the fifteenth of December. The vote

50
00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:52,880
Speaker 2: will also temper opposition calls for Prime Minister Sabatia and

51
00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:56,720
Speaker 2: the Corney to step down. Both his predecessors, Michelle Barnier

52
00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:00,440
Speaker 2: and France ware Beiru, were ousted over budget disagreems.

53
00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,280
Speaker 3: Australia's social media band for young people comes into effect

54
00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,639
Speaker 3: today and a landmark move designed to shield miners from

55
00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:11,560
Speaker 3: harmful online content. The law mandates apps such as TikTok

56
00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:15,120
Speaker 3: and Instagram to keep under sixteen's off their platforms or

57
00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:18,359
Speaker 3: face fines of up to thirty three million dollars Bloomberg.

58
00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:19,840
Speaker 3: Freddy Fulston has more.

59
00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:24,560
Speaker 6: It's d day in Australia, that's deactivation day to you

60
00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:29,480
Speaker 6: and policymakers around the world are watching. Australia is the

61
00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:33,520
Speaker 6: first democracy to enact such a crackdown on social media.

62
00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:34,840
Speaker 7: But will it work.

63
00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,920
Speaker 6: A survey of more than seventeen thousand young Australians found

64
00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:42,000
Speaker 6: that only six percent think the ban will be effective,

65
00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:46,720
Speaker 6: but Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albernesi told reporters it's a

66
00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:50,640
Speaker 6: profound reform which will continue to reverberate around the world

67
00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:55,119
Speaker 6: in the coming months. In London, freddie Fulston Bloomberg Radio.

68
00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,760
Speaker 2: President Trump has said that Russia is in a stronger

69
00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:02,119
Speaker 2: military position in war on Ukraine, as he took aim

70
00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:06,360
Speaker 2: at European leaders for what he sees as excessive dialogue

71
00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:11,080
Speaker 2: that has produced few results. The remarks exposed sharply diverging

72
00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,440
Speaker 2: positions between Europe and the White House on Moscow's position

73
00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:18,279
Speaker 2: in the conflict. Here's part of his exchange with Politico's

74
00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:19,320
Speaker 2: Dasher Burns.

75
00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:22,159
Speaker 8: It's not easy with the Russia because Russia is the

76
00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:25,320
Speaker 8: upper upper hand, and they always did that. Much bigger,

77
00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:29,080
Speaker 8: they're much stronger in that sense. I give Ukraine a

78
00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,440
Speaker 8: lot of I give the people of Ukraine and the

79
00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,760
Speaker 8: military of Ukraine tremendous credit for the bravery and for

80
00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:38,680
Speaker 8: the fighting all of that. But you know, at some

81
00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,120
Speaker 8: point the size will win.

82
00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:45,960
Speaker 2: Generally, President Trump in an interview with Politico. With peace

83
00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:50,440
Speaker 2: talks ongoing, President Trump has appeared increasingly sympathetic to Moscow's demands,

84
00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:54,120
Speaker 2: largely shutting out Western allies from his diplomatic efforts to

85
00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,680
Speaker 2: broker a deal. Last week, a US national security document

86
00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:01,760
Speaker 2: signed by the President said European government's hold quote unrealistic

87
00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:03,400
Speaker 2: expectations for the war.

88
00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:08,160
Speaker 3: Hspc's CEO, Jorge al Hedri says not enough executives the

89
00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:11,640
Speaker 3: bank were fully accountable for their performance before he began

90
00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:15,400
Speaker 3: his radical restructuring of the lender fifteen months ago. Since

91
00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,160
Speaker 3: taking the helm at Europe's largest bank, al Hedri has

92
00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:21,479
Speaker 3: nearly halved the size of its operating committee, unscrapped the

93
00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:25,080
Speaker 3: co management roles, which he thinks allowed bosses to avoid

94
00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:29,440
Speaker 3: taking responsibility for their decisions. He's been speaking to Bloomberg's

95
00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:30,960
Speaker 3: leaders with Francine Laqua.

96
00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:36,080
Speaker 9: We moved from zero percent singular accountability everything had dual

97
00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:40,040
Speaker 9: or multiple accountability, to know about sixty percent of our

98
00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,680
Speaker 9: revenues generated under singular accountability, and then the last thing,

99
00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:46,599
Speaker 9: Francine is to be patient, because you're not going to

100
00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,840
Speaker 9: We're not solving simplification overnight. It's going to be a

101
00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:52,280
Speaker 9: journey and we have to be relentless at that journey,

102
00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:55,839
Speaker 9: quota after quarter, month after month, until we get the

103
00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:56,839
Speaker 9: desired outcomes.

104
00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,640
Speaker 3: HSPCs CEO Jargel Hendrie, speaking on an up coming episode

105
00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,839
Speaker 3: of Bloomberg's Leaders, with Laqua, adding that the rollout of

106
00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:06,640
Speaker 3: AI to the bank's more than two hundred thousand workers

107
00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:09,760
Speaker 3: was well underway. It comes as the lender has relocated

108
00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:13,440
Speaker 3: several managing directors from London to the Middle East, replenishing

109
00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,640
Speaker 3: its ranks in a region earmarked as a priority.

110
00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:19,400
Speaker 2: Now Here in the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will face

111
00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:23,280
Speaker 2: questions from MP's today over her budget. Her appearance at

112
00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:26,479
Speaker 2: the Treasury Select Committee comes after analysis by the Bank

113
00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:29,840
Speaker 2: of England showed measures in the plan will lower the

114
00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:33,120
Speaker 2: annual inflation rate by up to half a point from

115
00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,760
Speaker 2: the second quarter of next year. The Bank of England's

116
00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:39,359
Speaker 2: Deputy Governor, Claire Lombudelli says the budget suggests a slightly

117
00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,640
Speaker 2: loosi fiscal policy that will provide a small zero point

118
00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:48,560
Speaker 2: two percent boost to UK GDP in twenty twenty seven.

119
00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,120
Speaker 2: Now the initial assessment may feed into the Bank of

120
00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:55,080
Speaker 2: England's interest rate decision next week. Meanwhile, a separate report

121
00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:59,160
Speaker 2: from the Home Office estimates that restrictions on legal immigration

122
00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:01,520
Speaker 2: into the uknu by the government this year could hit

123
00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:05,599
Speaker 2: the economy by almost eleven billion pounds. The Home Office

124
00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:09,000
Speaker 2: has a base case of a cost of five point

125
00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,080
Speaker 2: four billion pounds, but it said that the changes would

126
00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:17,600
Speaker 2: be balanced by potentially significant, unquantifiable benefits. Those are our

127
00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:18,840
Speaker 2: top stories.

128
00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,480
Speaker 3: On the markets this morning. The Mscish Pacific Index two

129
00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,040
Speaker 3: tenths of one percent higher. Eurostos fifty futures are two

130
00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,560
Speaker 3: tenths lower ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. The tenure

131
00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:30,720
Speaker 3: treasury yield down a basis point four point one eight percent,

132
00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:32,760
Speaker 3: but those yields have been rising in recent days. The

133
00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,800
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index just a touchweaker. The Euros training

134
00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:37,240
Speaker 3: at one sixteen thirty one.

135
00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:39,600
Speaker 2: In a moment, we'll bring you more on what to

136
00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:42,720
Speaker 2: expect from today's Federal Reserve decision. A plus look at

137
00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,720
Speaker 2: reaction to the first day of Australia's social media ban

138
00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:49,280
Speaker 2: for under sixteens, but then something else is caught my eye.

139
00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:52,520
Speaker 2: This went to say, midweek, maybe thinking about our aging

140
00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:57,600
Speaker 2: populations and retiring later. Our opinion columnist Avoid Ready has

141
00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:00,640
Speaker 2: been writing about the experience of older workers in Japan.

142
00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:02,679
Speaker 2: Maybe something we can learn about here in Europe.

143
00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:04,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the system in Japan is a bit different

144
00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:07,120
Speaker 3: that there is no mandatory retirement age, but there is

145
00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:11,080
Speaker 3: a system which allows companies to essentially force workers once

146
00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:16,640
Speaker 3: they hit sixty onto less well paid, less secure contracts.

147
00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:19,240
Speaker 3: And the issue is is that you end up with

148
00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:22,760
Speaker 3: workers who are still in the workforce but being less productive,

149
00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,840
Speaker 3: earning less and not able to claim their full state

150
00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:29,360
Speaker 3: pensil until age sixty five as well. I mean, there's

151
00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:31,960
Speaker 3: plenty of counter arguments as to why the system needs

152
00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:34,040
Speaker 3: to change. People are living longer, they're more healthy into

153
00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,800
Speaker 3: later life as well. Take for example, Sanaetakichi, herself sixty

154
00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,960
Speaker 3: four years old, often convenes meetings with advisors at three

155
00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:45,360
Speaker 3: am to discuss policy issues as well. Some companies are

156
00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,079
Speaker 3: changing GROAD rights in this piece as well, but he

157
00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:50,680
Speaker 3: points to OCD calls for bigger changes in the retirement

158
00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,280
Speaker 3: system as well. This is perhaps carolyn An insight into

159
00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:55,640
Speaker 3: the debate to come in Europe where watching what's been

160
00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,839
Speaker 3: happening in France where actually lawmakers have voted to hold

161
00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:03,040
Speaker 3: the retirement age lower this morning too. But as populations age,

162
00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,520
Speaker 3: we know that these cohort of workers are going to

163
00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:09,080
Speaker 3: be much more important to the general economy. Do you

164
00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:10,840
Speaker 3: know what sort of system do we need to be

165
00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:11,600
Speaker 3: preparing for?

166
00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:15,360
Speaker 2: Well, listen, I think that debate has already started. I mean, look,

167
00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:19,080
Speaker 2: the mandatory default retirement age in the UK was sixty

168
00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,160
Speaker 2: five and that was scrapped well over a decade ago.

169
00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,520
Speaker 2: Ten percent of people over sixty six have continued to work,

170
00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:27,959
Speaker 2: although the majority of them are kind of in harh

171
00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:33,120
Speaker 2: end professional managerial type occupations. So of course there's a

172
00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,800
Speaker 2: difference between kind of forced to work and want to work.

173
00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:40,640
Speaker 2: But I think the debate about working much much later

174
00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,760
Speaker 2: in life and kind of longevities as well, and truly

175
00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:44,480
Speaker 2: here already.

176
00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,160
Speaker 7: Yeah, well, want to watch with interest.

177
00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:49,719
Speaker 3: We'll put a link to grod Red's piece in our

178
00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,360
Speaker 3: podcast show notes. You'll final at Bloomberg dot com slash

179
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:55,360
Speaker 3: opinion as well. Well, let's bring you more in today's

180
00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:58,559
Speaker 3: Federal Reserve decision, we're expecting a cost for the third

181
00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:00,480
Speaker 3: meeting in a row. But questions of for where the

182
00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:03,440
Speaker 3: central bank goes next. We have our market support valerie

183
00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:06,839
Speaker 3: title with us for more val The Fed's already cut

184
00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:08,719
Speaker 3: by one and a half percentage points over the last

185
00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,520
Speaker 3: fifteen months. How much further can it go?

186
00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:13,960
Speaker 7: Well, look, that's a key question here.

187
00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,520
Speaker 1: You know the guidance going forward and how strong can

188
00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:20,960
Speaker 1: the guidance be given we're still in a data backlog.

189
00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:24,240
Speaker 1: We're still waiting for November data. That October data went

190
00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:28,000
Speaker 1: largely uncollected, so we're still kind of flying blind into

191
00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:29,959
Speaker 1: this FED decision. So the guidance is going to be

192
00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,360
Speaker 1: a key part of it. But one thing that has

193
00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:35,320
Speaker 1: been shifting the markets lately is the market has been

194
00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:39,040
Speaker 1: pricing out the extent to which they will cut next year.

195
00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:43,080
Speaker 1: We're now only pricing in two twenty five basis point

196
00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:46,960
Speaker 1: rate cuts in twenty twenty six fifty basis points of cuts. Now,

197
00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:49,440
Speaker 1: that has to be said within the context that we've

198
00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:53,480
Speaker 1: had a raft of more hawkish central bank repricing, give

199
00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:57,200
Speaker 1: it the hawkish RBA yesterday, the hawkish repricing around the

200
00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,000
Speaker 1: Bank of Japan, and they we're now expecting them to

201
00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,920
Speaker 1: cut next week and more time next year. Even add

202
00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,679
Speaker 1: the ECB into that, now we have a shred of

203
00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:06,680
Speaker 1: a chance that they will be hiking rates by the

204
00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:08,960
Speaker 1: end of twenty twenty six. So a lot of this

205
00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:11,920
Speaker 1: is taken into the global context that essentially the neutral

206
00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,240
Speaker 1: rate or the terminal rate has been shifting upwards in

207
00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:17,960
Speaker 1: the last few weeks. But it does, I guess, cause

208
00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:20,679
Speaker 1: some issues for the FED today because they are widely

209
00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,880
Speaker 1: expected to reduce interest rates. But again, there is going

210
00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:28,240
Speaker 1: to be a huge debate on what will the Committee

211
00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:31,040
Speaker 1: look like going forward, given we've had five of the

212
00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:35,600
Speaker 1: more hawkish members express disagreement with lowering interest rates today.

213
00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,600
Speaker 1: Today is really going to test Powell's ability to form

214
00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:41,559
Speaker 1: a consensus on the committee. Now, note Caroline, this is

215
00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,400
Speaker 1: something he's been very successful at during his term as

216
00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:46,600
Speaker 1: FED chair, But today is really going to be a

217
00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:48,319
Speaker 1: test of that kind of strength from Chairbell.

218
00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:52,760
Speaker 2: But the shadow of Hassett surely is looming. White House

219
00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,920
Speaker 2: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who's the front runner

220
00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:59,280
Speaker 2: to run the FED next year, and he says that

221
00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:01,520
Speaker 2: there's room to cut Yeah.

222
00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:02,280
Speaker 7: So again.

223
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,320
Speaker 1: This is another thing that's been complicating the FED. The

224
00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:11,560
Speaker 1: political pressure overhang we've heard from Kevin Hassett and a

225
00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:13,840
Speaker 1: few times over the last week when he's become the

226
00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:18,640
Speaker 1: real front runner for the FED chair, come Powells stepping

227
00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:20,760
Speaker 1: down from that position in May of next year.

228
00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:22,600
Speaker 7: We even heard from Trump himself.

229
00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:26,640
Speaker 1: He had an interview with Politico where he was essentially asked,

230
00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:28,960
Speaker 1: what's the litmus test for the FED chair? Is it

231
00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:32,319
Speaker 1: cutting interest rates immediately? And he said yes. So there

232
00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:37,120
Speaker 1: is kind of a dissonance between the more hawkus pricing

233
00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:40,320
Speaker 1: that the market has been shifting to in the last

234
00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:44,280
Speaker 1: few days within this backdrop of the Trump administration still

235
00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,920
Speaker 1: wanting a FED chair to cut interest rates pretty decently

236
00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:48,520
Speaker 1: next year.

237
00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:50,240
Speaker 7: So one of those is going to be right.

238
00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:51,920
Speaker 1: I think we just have to wait a few more

239
00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:53,720
Speaker 1: months until one of them comes clear.

240
00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:56,559
Speaker 3: Okay, Balari Tartel, our market supporter, thank you.

241
00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:02,000
Speaker 2: Stay with us. Big Daybacube coming up after this.

242
00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:03,600
Speaker 7: Now.

243
00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,720
Speaker 2: Australia's ban on young people having certain social media accounts

244
00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,920
Speaker 2: takes effect from today. It's the first of its kind,

245
00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:15,280
Speaker 2: designed to keep under sixteens off platforms including TikTok, Snapchat,

246
00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:18,920
Speaker 2: Instagram and YouTube. And the world is watching. So let's

247
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:22,000
Speaker 2: being in a blue big opinion columns Katherine Thorbeck for more.

248
00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,200
Speaker 2: She's been writing about this story. Good to have you on, Katherine. First,

249
00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:27,880
Speaker 2: he just remind is how did this law all come about?

250
00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:31,439
Speaker 10: Yeah, this legislation, which as you mentioned, goes into effect today,

251
00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:34,680
Speaker 10: was actually introduced about a year ago. And I'll be honest,

252
00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:36,520
Speaker 10: I've been a bit of a skeptic since day one.

253
00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:39,120
Speaker 10: There's all kinds of reporting about how it came about

254
00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:42,360
Speaker 10: and who backs it. NewsCorp actually ran some very aggressive

255
00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,960
Speaker 10: campaigns supporting it. But I think there's definitely been a

256
00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:49,880
Speaker 10: lot of growing pressure globally for big tech to do

257
00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:52,000
Speaker 10: more to protect us, the youngest users. And I think

258
00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:55,000
Speaker 10: that's something that parents and caregivers feel very deeply, and

259
00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:57,640
Speaker 10: you know, we can all get behind that. And you know,

260
00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:00,080
Speaker 10: we've all heard these very devastating stories of you've met

261
00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:03,520
Speaker 10: health problems linked to social media use, and Washington really

262
00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:06,240
Speaker 10: hasn't moved on this front. I mean, they haven't passed

263
00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:10,560
Speaker 10: any comprehensive online child safety regulation in decades. So Australia

264
00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:12,880
Speaker 10: says they're really hoping to lead the world here.

265
00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:17,160
Speaker 3: What are the tech companies saying about this? How are

266
00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,080
Speaker 3: they responding to the fact that many under sixteens won't

267
00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:21,680
Speaker 3: be able to use their platforms.

268
00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,200
Speaker 10: So it's really no surprise at all that tech companies

269
00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:29,080
Speaker 10: have pretty strongly resisted this. They obviously don't like being regulated,

270
00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:32,000
Speaker 10: but they have all even sort of belatedly come around

271
00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:36,040
Speaker 10: and they are complying. And I do think that it's

272
00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:37,760
Speaker 10: a good thing to sort of put Silicon Valley on

273
00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:39,840
Speaker 10: notice like this. I don't think that parents and carry

274
00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,320
Speaker 10: overs can carry this burden alone. So it does sort

275
00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:44,680
Speaker 10: of give Silicon Valley the choice of whether to protect

276
00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,720
Speaker 10: more young users or lose them. But in terms of

277
00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:51,120
Speaker 10: the workarounds that you mentioned, I mean, how viable and

278
00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:54,080
Speaker 10: how feasible this span will actually be as a big question?

279
00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, indeed, And so I suppose that's why I won't

280
00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:01,320
Speaker 2: tells you why you're a skeptic. In terms of who's

281
00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:04,520
Speaker 2: in who's out there, there are a number of apps

282
00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,680
Speaker 2: that are included in this ban, but young people can

283
00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,400
Speaker 2: still see what's on them, they just can't have their

284
00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,600
Speaker 2: own account. What governments do you think are going to

285
00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:15,480
Speaker 2: be watching this closely? What do you think they're going

286
00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:19,400
Speaker 2: to be trying to take away from the lessons in Australia.

287
00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:21,680
Speaker 10: So One thing that I think is interesting is that

288
00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:24,240
Speaker 10: three quarters of nine to fifteen year olds, according to

289
00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:26,800
Speaker 10: an ABC pool, said they had no intention of stopping

290
00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:28,960
Speaker 10: their social media use once the band kicks in. And

291
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,480
Speaker 10: we know how tech savvy young people are. Ahead of

292
00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:33,200
Speaker 10: the band, they were sort of encouraging each other to

293
00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:35,840
Speaker 10: congregate on even more obscure apps, which kind of raises

294
00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,280
Speaker 10: the question of what could go wrong when swarms of

295
00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:41,600
Speaker 10: underage users flocked even less regulated corners of the Internet.

296
00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:43,360
Speaker 10: So I think that there are a number of questions

297
00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:45,520
Speaker 10: that we have to figure out here. But I do

298
00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:49,040
Speaker 10: think that the more global momentum these this band gets,

299
00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:51,280
Speaker 10: I think, the better I think it really does. Sort

300
00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:53,160
Speaker 10: of it really is a wake up call for big

301
00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:55,640
Speaker 10: tech that the status quo is not tenable.

302
00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,920
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on this

303
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,040
Speaker 3: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

304
00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:06,520
Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple,

305
00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:09,440
Speaker 2: Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

306
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,600
Speaker 3: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,

307
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,280
Speaker 3: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

308
00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:18,120
Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station is also available on your

309
00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:22,880
Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

310
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:24,440
Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hipka.

311
00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:25,160
Speaker 7: And I'm Stephen Carroll.

312
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,560
Speaker 3: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

313
00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,480
Speaker 3: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak

314
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:34,680
Speaker 3: Europe