1
00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,720
Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

2
00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:05,920
Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

3
00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:15,480
Speaker 1: Fifteen Conny twenty five, thirty thirty five forty coty five fifty.

4
00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:16,560
Speaker 2: And the kick is block.

5
00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:19,400
Speaker 1: Look college Football World.

6
00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:24,880
Speaker 2: Stundar, Oh my goodness.

7
00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:29,720
Speaker 1: Please stumbled the football, the lateral turn, the counter on

8
00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:35,280
Speaker 1: the inside. Can't you believe I table up the.

9
00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:42,560
Speaker 2: Field to night. It's not the sage on the game anything.

10
00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,000
Speaker 2: It's the sage of the fight in the room.

11
00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:51,200
Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

12
00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:55,520
Speaker 1: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

13
00:00:55,560 --> 00:01:00,240
Speaker 1: Week eight college football betting preview. I'm stucky in joining me,

14
00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,640
Speaker 1: as always is Colin Wilson. I might not even waste

15
00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:05,880
Speaker 1: time asking you how you are. I think we're going

16
00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:07,919
Speaker 1: to try to get to like thirty games today.

17
00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,720
Speaker 2: Sports equinox is here, and I get it. But when

18
00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:13,000
Speaker 2: you're out there making parlays with MLS in it, you're

19
00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:14,520
Speaker 2: not even mentioning college football.

20
00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:16,880
Speaker 1: What is MLS done? A squash? Major league squash? I

21
00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:18,760
Speaker 1: don't know what that is. All right, we got a

22
00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,440
Speaker 1: ton to get to. We'll get to Friday night lights

23
00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,160
Speaker 1: in just a second. Couple look ahead spots. You got

24
00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:28,920
Speaker 1: five Marquee games to get through. I'm gonna go four

25
00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:33,840
Speaker 1: games of trash. It is just absolutely loaded them. We'll

26
00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,280
Speaker 1: go free and out get favorite bets Underdog, money Line

27
00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:39,920
Speaker 1: our favorite favorite. But before we do, I want to

28
00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:41,720
Speaker 1: give a heads up to our listeners out there today

29
00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:45,120
Speaker 1: if you were to weare. Baseball playoffs are underway and

30
00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:49,800
Speaker 1: pretty fun, and that means Action Networks Baseball betting podcast

31
00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:54,120
Speaker 1: pay Off Pitch. It's also well underway with episodes basically

32
00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,320
Speaker 1: every weekday through the World Series, as long as there's

33
00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:58,640
Speaker 1: a game that day. So if you want to bets

34
00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:02,560
Speaker 1: to playoff Baseball A crew is awesome Colin and Zerrilla

35
00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:05,720
Speaker 1: check out the Payoff Pitch podcast, presented by our friends

36
00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:10,320
Speaker 1: at bet MGM. All right, let's dive right in Friday

37
00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:10,920
Speaker 1: Night Lights.

38
00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,400
Speaker 2: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

39
00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:18,960
Speaker 1: Hey, let's go play some fall. There's a Temple game

40
00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:21,520
Speaker 1: which I'm going to we're going to cover later in

41
00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:23,720
Speaker 1: the show. So we're just going to talk about one

42
00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:31,040
Speaker 1: game here, UAB at Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky. Now like

43
00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:33,320
Speaker 1: I think a one and a half point favorite at

44
00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:37,840
Speaker 1: home over under fifty nine. We talked about this on

45
00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:41,040
Speaker 1: our new Vcyes show comes out of every Tuesday. Myself, Colin

46
00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:44,720
Speaker 1: and Bret McMurphy talking college football. We both liked ua B.

47
00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:47,720
Speaker 1: This is basically the quick HANDI caap for me. Western

48
00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,920
Speaker 1: Kentucky does not run it ever, and they can't run it.

49
00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:55,000
Speaker 1: Uab's weakness on defense is their run day and their

50
00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:57,880
Speaker 1: strength is their secondary. Twelve and EPA for past third

51
00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:01,800
Speaker 1: and pass efficiency. Uab's offense been very good, little unlucky

52
00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,000
Speaker 1: in turnover, so maybe some regression are coming there, but

53
00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,880
Speaker 1: they should be able to move it, keep the sticks moving,

54
00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:10,320
Speaker 1: especially on the ground. Western Kentucky ninety seventh in line yards,

55
00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:15,560
Speaker 1: ninety ninth in opportunity rate. Western Kentucky's defenses has holes.

56
00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,120
Speaker 1: So I think basically what this comes down to is

57
00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,040
Speaker 1: the UAB secondary will be able to stop a one

58
00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,080
Speaker 1: of the most past friendly offenses in the country.

59
00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:26,960
Speaker 2: You agree, absolutely, one er percent agree. There's a full

60
00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,760
Speaker 2: write up over at Action Network that I did you

61
00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:32,600
Speaker 2: know spoiler alert took UAB That number is crashing. I

62
00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:34,760
Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised if this was more of a pick

63
00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:37,160
Speaker 2: or minus one. So if you're listening to this, you

64
00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:39,200
Speaker 2: still see the one and a half or two out there,

65
00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,360
Speaker 2: I would go and grab it. I back everything that

66
00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,880
Speaker 2: stuck said, especially UAB. They are an explosive run unit

67
00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:47,560
Speaker 2: in western Kentucky. Can do nothing about it, and their

68
00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,760
Speaker 2: secondary could hang with a lot of power five teams

69
00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,440
Speaker 2: from a UAB defensive perspective, So Blazers all the way.

70
00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:57,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to think to mention with these lines

71
00:03:57,200 --> 00:03:58,800
Speaker 1: that are like plus one and a half, I gotta

72
00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:01,120
Speaker 1: I have to price this, y. I kind of know

73
00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:03,000
Speaker 1: how to deal with thought. We have a yeah, we

74
00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,120
Speaker 1: have a we have a big data set, but you know,

75
00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:07,320
Speaker 1: two you never used to it's not a key number,

76
00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:11,120
Speaker 1: but it's more key nowadays. So if I can find

77
00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:12,720
Speaker 1: like a two and a half and pay a couple

78
00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,520
Speaker 1: extra cents or to a couple in a one and

79
00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,440
Speaker 1: a half, I got to find out what the right prices.

80
00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:19,760
Speaker 1: I haven't done any of the math on it, but

81
00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:22,600
Speaker 1: because you have to go for two in the second

82
00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,599
Speaker 1: overtime and then you just trade two point conversions starting

83
00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,039
Speaker 1: the third overtime, there's got We've already seen a couple

84
00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:29,880
Speaker 1: this year, so I got to figure out what the

85
00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:31,560
Speaker 1: frequency of that is. But just you know, if you

86
00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:34,880
Speaker 1: have the choice shop around, you know, it's there's it's

87
00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,080
Speaker 1: gonna happen a lot more often now with games ending too,

88
00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:38,880
Speaker 1: because the overtime rules, and it did in the past.

89
00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,479
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to our next segment here,

90
00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:42,520
Speaker 1: look ahead and look.

91
00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:50,960
Speaker 2: Away, hangovers, sleepers, and the dreaded sandwich spot. Is it

92
00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,520
Speaker 2: time to look ahead or look away?

93
00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,239
Speaker 1: This is we look at, you know, last week's schedule,

94
00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:02,120
Speaker 1: the week coming up, see if there's any situational spots

95
00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:06,120
Speaker 1: worth exploring. Sometimes it's just hey, team might not be

96
00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,080
Speaker 1: as focused, they might not show a lot, they might

97
00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:10,600
Speaker 1: take their starters out a little earlier. Ultimately comes down

98
00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:12,320
Speaker 1: to the number of matchup. But these are factors that

99
00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:16,680
Speaker 1: I consider. The first one Iowa at Ohio State, Ohio

100
00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:21,440
Speaker 1: State laying thirty thirty and a half. Now, Ohio State

101
00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,680
Speaker 1: has been just absolutely rolling. They're scoring touchdowns on sixty

102
00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:30,200
Speaker 1: eight percent of their possessions. They're the next best is

103
00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,680
Speaker 1: Washington and Tennessee at fifty percent. In USC the right

104
00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:38,280
Speaker 1: around fifty percent, Like it's insane. They also have Are

105
00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,359
Speaker 1: they not going to face a top fifty offense until Michigan?

106
00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:45,280
Speaker 1: Depending on Maryland's quarterback situation, they might not. I mean

107
00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:48,960
Speaker 1: Maryland's rated in the top fifty. But Ohio State has

108
00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,640
Speaker 1: just been playing nobody. They have Penn State on deck.

109
00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:58,120
Speaker 1: I know Penn State underwhelmed last week against Michigan over

110
00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:02,560
Speaker 1: under forty nine. Here, I want no part of this game.

111
00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:03,400
Speaker 1: You got anything here?

112
00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:06,359
Speaker 2: Well, I mean there's a big discrepancy in special teams.

113
00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,200
Speaker 2: Iowa has the advantage there. I think if you're watching

114
00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:10,840
Speaker 2: this game, the one thing you want to consume from

115
00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:14,080
Speaker 2: a future's perspective is that Iowa is number one in

116
00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,479
Speaker 2: the nation at defending rush explosiveness, and they're fourth in

117
00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:20,360
Speaker 2: the nation defending past explosiveness. Their strength to schedule is forty,

118
00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,040
Speaker 2: so we can debate whether they've really faced explosive teams.

119
00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,080
Speaker 2: But if Ohio State is going to put up more

120
00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,280
Speaker 2: than thirty and cover this spread, did they do it

121
00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,760
Speaker 2: with explosive plays? And if they can do it against Iowa,

122
00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:34,919
Speaker 2: they can do it against anybody else in this conference.

123
00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:37,279
Speaker 2: So it really kind of if you're holding an Ohio

124
00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:39,760
Speaker 2: State ticket like I am, you want to see them

125
00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:44,080
Speaker 2: defeat this Iowa team by explosive plays. As far as

126
00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:46,000
Speaker 2: a bet on this game, I would go with an

127
00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:49,120
Speaker 2: Iowa team total under I do not think the market

128
00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:52,279
Speaker 2: or odds makers or anybody has talked about how improved

129
00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:55,600
Speaker 2: this Ohio State defense is and they're just going to

130
00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,120
Speaker 2: have a field day with a lifeless Iowa offense.

131
00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:00,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would lean under two has come down too much.

132
00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,240
Speaker 1: I wish i'd, you know, fifty one or higher. I

133
00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:05,120
Speaker 1: was going to grind this game. Try to grind this

134
00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,520
Speaker 1: game down to a halt. I doubt their offense does much.

135
00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:09,840
Speaker 1: You know, Ohio State probably puts up like thirty eight,

136
00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,840
Speaker 1: and then it's a matter of like, does I will

137
00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,440
Speaker 1: get to fourteen to put this over? Probably not. It's

138
00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,280
Speaker 1: probably like thirty eight ten, So the totals come down

139
00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:22,880
Speaker 1: to where it probably should be, So I probably won't

140
00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:27,600
Speaker 1: get involved. Another spot worth mentioning U Team Martin at

141
00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:31,400
Speaker 1: Tennessee obviously have to bring this up because Tennessee might

142
00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,800
Speaker 1: still be partying from last week. They have Kentucky on deck,

143
00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,320
Speaker 1: Georgia on the horizon. After that. There's no spread out

144
00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,760
Speaker 1: for this game yet. For what it's worth, since twenty ten,

145
00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:43,200
Speaker 1: Tennessee Martin is three and seven against the spread against

146
00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:46,440
Speaker 1: the SEC. They've lost by an average score of fifty

147
00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:50,160
Speaker 1: four to twelve. Ish pretty much give up fifty every game.

148
00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,080
Speaker 1: You know, UT Martin's a top twenty SCS team, They're

149
00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,000
Speaker 1: not like a doormat at the FCS level. For reference,

150
00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:59,480
Speaker 1: they lost thirty to seven and covered at Boise, but

151
00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:03,440
Speaker 1: Boise was a mess. Then. My only angle here is

152
00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,960
Speaker 1: I might look at, you know, UT Martin's second half.

153
00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,960
Speaker 1: Potentially Tennessee comes out here, big talent mismatch, but such

154
00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:13,520
Speaker 1: a sleepy spot at noon after what happened last week

155
00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,160
Speaker 1: with Kentucky on deck. But they just might be able

156
00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,960
Speaker 1: to score it will if they build a big lead

157
00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:22,120
Speaker 1: at halftime. I'm assuming it's just all the backups in

158
00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,320
Speaker 1: hand it off throughout the second half. There's no reason

159
00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:27,400
Speaker 1: to risk injury. There's no reason to run this up.

160
00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,560
Speaker 1: UT Martin, I think is competent enough to at least

161
00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:35,840
Speaker 1: hang around in the second half. If it's Tennessee's backups

162
00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,400
Speaker 1: just handing it off, that's all I got there.

163
00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:40,680
Speaker 2: Anything for you, Yeah, I mean, obviously there's going to

164
00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:42,920
Speaker 2: be a hangover. I mean, that is one of the

165
00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,960
Speaker 2: best victories it's been in that stadium in decades. But

166
00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:47,840
Speaker 2: what I can say is we don't have a number

167
00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:50,080
Speaker 2: in front of us, so I will say that spplus

168
00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:52,960
Speaker 2: makes this game fifty four to fifteen, so you're looking

169
00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:56,120
Speaker 2: at about a thirty eight thirty nine points spread. Sagurin

170
00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:58,440
Speaker 2: makes this game forty one and a half with a

171
00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:01,680
Speaker 2: total of seventy four. So I would just use those

172
00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:05,320
Speaker 2: as markers because generally the people that are pushing this

173
00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:08,080
Speaker 2: FCS market when they get into these games, they're at

174
00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:11,640
Speaker 2: low limits and they're pushing them towards sp plus and sagrin.

175
00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:13,560
Speaker 2: So keep that in mind. Forty one to about thirty

176
00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,160
Speaker 2: eight and a half on the spread total anywhere between

177
00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:18,920
Speaker 2: sixty nine and seventy nine, although I don't know if

178
00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,599
Speaker 2: Tennessee's coming out and blazing guns and scoring touchdowns in

179
00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,920
Speaker 2: the first quarter of this game, it might be a

180
00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,520
Speaker 2: good like first half under here. But you know, ut

181
00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:28,640
Speaker 2: Martin can score too, so we'll see. It's all gonna

182
00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:29,880
Speaker 2: be numbered driven.

183
00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm gonna look at you T Martin second

184
00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,760
Speaker 1: half if they're getting going out. Indiana Rutgers is another

185
00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,120
Speaker 1: one I wanted to mention because I really like Rutgers. Here,

186
00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna end up playing them. They've had fifteen days

187
00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:42,600
Speaker 1: to prepare here, They've got a lot healthier they had

188
00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,000
Speaker 1: a ton of injuries. This is probably their best shot

189
00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,640
Speaker 1: at a big ten win this year. Meanwhile, Indiana's coming

190
00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,360
Speaker 1: off a tough loss against Maryland and they have Ohio

191
00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:54,160
Speaker 1: State and Penn State on deck, so heading to you know,

192
00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:58,280
Speaker 1: a noon start and piscataway against Rutgers, potentially big flat

193
00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:01,280
Speaker 1: spot here. I'm assuming Greg Shiao of a few trick

194
00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,440
Speaker 1: plays up as sleeve. He's also ten and three against

195
00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:06,480
Speaker 1: the spread in his career as a head coach, with

196
00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:10,760
Speaker 1: more than ten days between games against FBS opponents covering

197
00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,560
Speaker 1: by eleven points per game, so he's historically been good

198
00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:15,920
Speaker 1: in this spot. I also like that there's an element

199
00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,920
Speaker 1: of surprise here for Rutgers. They fired their offensive coordinator

200
00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,440
Speaker 1: Sean Gleason ten days ago, so they've had time to

201
00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:25,280
Speaker 1: you know, you know, tight end coach took over. Probably

202
00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:29,040
Speaker 1: some new wrinkles here. They'll also likely get a win.

203
00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,280
Speaker 1: Set backed at quarterback, he's their most talented quarterback, their

204
00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:34,720
Speaker 1: most mobile. They go with this like quarterback platoon. I'm

205
00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:37,920
Speaker 1: assuming you see all three, but I think you know,

206
00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:41,280
Speaker 1: having him back a new offensive coordinator fifteen days they

207
00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:43,200
Speaker 1: played last played on a Friday, a couple of weeks

208
00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,960
Speaker 1: ago to add in some wrinkles. You know, Rutgers love

209
00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:48,280
Speaker 1: Shianna loves the trick plays. I think this is a

210
00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:52,120
Speaker 1: good spot to buy Rutgers minus three at home against

211
00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:56,280
Speaker 1: Indiana and any thoughts there, No, Yeah, I.

212
00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:58,079
Speaker 2: Think you're right there. I mean there's a big fundamental

213
00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:00,319
Speaker 2: difference on defense between these two teams, and Dana is

214
00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,480
Speaker 2: one hundred and eleventh and tackling Ruggers is fifth. I mean,

215
00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,240
Speaker 2: one team is playing quality defense, although against a softwer

216
00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,120
Speaker 2: schedule than what Indiana is. But this is essentially a

217
00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:11,319
Speaker 2: bold knockout game. We got one team at three and three,

218
00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,320
Speaker 2: another one at three and four, so I expect Rutgers

219
00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:16,880
Speaker 2: to be much more up for this and everything that

220
00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,040
Speaker 2: you said. So, you know, the one thing in the

221
00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,240
Speaker 2: Indiana specialty on defense that they do do well is

222
00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:24,200
Speaker 2: they limit explosive runs. But that's just not applicable to

223
00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:26,200
Speaker 2: what Rutgers does on offense. So I'm with you there.

224
00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:27,559
Speaker 2: I think Ruggers gets to cover.

225
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:33,120
Speaker 1: All right good stuff there. Little appetizers cover a few

226
00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:37,000
Speaker 1: games that might not be the most appetizing, but let's

227
00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:41,199
Speaker 1: change that and get into the marquee games of the day.

228
00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:45,480
Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football.

229
00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:47,559
Speaker 2: Let's check out the marquee matchups.

230
00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:52,440
Speaker 1: We'll all end up betting for Week eight. All right,

231
00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:57,720
Speaker 1: So we're going to cover five marquee games, and we'll

232
00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:04,280
Speaker 1: start with a game at noon between a pair of

233
00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:10,640
Speaker 1: undefeated ACC teams. Number fourteen, Syracuse travels to Clemson, number

234
00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,679
Speaker 1: five in the country Clemson seven and OHO Syracuse six

235
00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:18,440
Speaker 1: and oh Clemson favored thirteen and a half here over

236
00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:20,480
Speaker 1: under forty nine and a half has come down a

237
00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:23,839
Speaker 1: little since the open. You know, I still I worry

238
00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,680
Speaker 1: a bit about the Q rush defense, which I've talked

239
00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:29,200
Speaker 1: about in the past, as is Clemson really just going

240
00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:30,959
Speaker 1: to be able to get their run game going to

241
00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:32,679
Speaker 1: set up the pass. I mean, Syracuse outside the top

242
00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,440
Speaker 1: one hundred rush success right, an EPA for rush. If

243
00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:38,800
Speaker 1: you look at the Syracuse schedule, they're just they seem

244
00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,480
Speaker 1: right to me. They beat Louisville in the opener in

245
00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,680
Speaker 1: dominant fashion. Weird things happen in those season opening games.

246
00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,160
Speaker 1: But their other ones came against Yukon Uva by two.

247
00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,560
Speaker 1: That looks worse and worse by the day, Wagner. They

248
00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,920
Speaker 1: beat up Purdue team and they should have lost to Purdue.

249
00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,640
Speaker 1: We do it an eighty percent postgame win expectancy, and

250
00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:01,320
Speaker 1: then they played the NC State backup quarterback. So yeah,

251
00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:04,880
Speaker 1: all their metrics look great, but who have they really played.

252
00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:09,560
Speaker 1: I did go back in that Clemson game looking at

253
00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:12,679
Speaker 1: that Clemson Florida State game. I actually was not as

254
00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:14,880
Speaker 1: mad as about my Florida State play as I was.

255
00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:16,240
Speaker 1: I mean, Florida State, I think I'll gain them by

256
00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:19,959
Speaker 1: about one hundred yards, had opportunities in that game. So

257
00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:22,280
Speaker 1: I don't know if I want to lay two touchdowns here,

258
00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:27,240
Speaker 1: but I'm not playing Syracuse. I'll tell you that there's

259
00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:31,280
Speaker 1: too many questions I have for them. But the Clemson

260
00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:36,120
Speaker 1: defense just it's missing something which is I don't know what.

261
00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,680
Speaker 1: It's just not as elite and is dominant, and they've

262
00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:41,920
Speaker 1: had a lot of pieces moving in and out, so

263
00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,719
Speaker 1: maybe it's just like a continuity let's get healthy thing.

264
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:46,520
Speaker 1: And you know last week was the healthiest they've been

265
00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:48,640
Speaker 1: and Florida State is a good offense, but Florida State

266
00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:50,920
Speaker 1: was moving the ball out will against them. I think

267
00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:54,920
Speaker 1: you really like Clemson here. What's the handicap I do?

268
00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:57,640
Speaker 2: I don't think the odds makers or the market is

269
00:13:57,679 --> 00:13:59,720
Speaker 2: caught up to how good Clemson has been or the

270
00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:01,840
Speaker 2: fact of the defense is improving and the thing that's

271
00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:04,360
Speaker 2: been missing from them stuck is health. Like we can

272
00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:07,679
Speaker 2: point to Wake Forest tearing up the secondary, we can

273
00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:09,800
Speaker 2: point to Florida State being able to run at will.

274
00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:13,000
Speaker 2: You know, these are issues that are being worked out

275
00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:16,160
Speaker 2: as we are. You know, bringing Brian Bisi in, We're

276
00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:19,360
Speaker 2: bringing Xavier Thomas in at the edge. Andrew mccuba is

277
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,680
Speaker 2: now playing full time in the secondary. So those players

278
00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,840
Speaker 2: haven't always been there and they don't have their lungs yet, right,

279
00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:26,680
Speaker 2: I mean for them, this is week zero, week one,

280
00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,000
Speaker 2: week two, and so I expect that to get better

281
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,240
Speaker 2: and better for Clemson as the time goes on. And

282
00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,480
Speaker 2: when you look at it, they've had three straight covers.

283
00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,720
Speaker 2: Clemson has had three straight covers by a combined eight

284
00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:40,160
Speaker 2: points against the closing number. So what that tells me

285
00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:43,760
Speaker 2: is is this defense is getting better. And power ratings

286
00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:46,800
Speaker 2: from the Oddsmager they're just a point or two shy

287
00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:49,680
Speaker 2: of where this team is ending up. And frankly they,

288
00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,440
Speaker 2: I mean, Florida State had to really work to get

289
00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,040
Speaker 2: within the number at the end of that game. So

290
00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:56,720
Speaker 2: you know, this is a number for me that I

291
00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:58,920
Speaker 2: make at seventeen. I bought it at thirteen. I would

292
00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,720
Speaker 2: buy it at thirteen half I go realize at fourteen

293
00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,560
Speaker 2: once it gets there, And I think Syracuse should get

294
00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:06,080
Speaker 2: a lot of credit. Deno Babers should be up for

295
00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,360
Speaker 2: Coach of the Year. They're already Bowl eligible, you know,

296
00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:10,520
Speaker 2: but the defense is not generating a pass rush. They

297
00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:12,920
Speaker 2: have a poor line yards and stuff right number. That

298
00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:16,640
Speaker 2: means Clemson, specifically Will Shipley and Djungleiley is going to

299
00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:18,160
Speaker 2: be able to hit gaps all day on the three

300
00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:22,200
Speaker 2: three five defense. Keep this in mind as Syracuse keeps progressing.

301
00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,680
Speaker 2: Garrett Trader is getting worse. Since Week three against Perdue.

302
00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,960
Speaker 2: What crazy game that they had there. Garrett Trader has

303
00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,520
Speaker 2: produced only four big time throws and seven turnover worthy plays.

304
00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:34,360
Speaker 2: His numbers are severely and.

305
00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:36,360
Speaker 1: He did nothing in that Purdue game until like the

306
00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,000
Speaker 1: pre event at the end, like Volver offense is doing nothing.

307
00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:42,600
Speaker 2: His numbers are severely going in the wrong direction. And

308
00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:46,080
Speaker 2: what's crazy about it is his pressures are getting less

309
00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,520
Speaker 2: game by game. I could easily see this be a

310
00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:52,120
Speaker 2: Clemson fifteen fourteen to sixteen point win. Play it accordingly,

311
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:53,760
Speaker 2: but We're riding the Tigers all the way to the

312
00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 2: college ball playoff, so you are speaking of tigers. Let's

313
00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:01,640
Speaker 2: move on to the three point thirty seed game. LSU

314
00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:07,720
Speaker 2: is taking on undefeated oh Miss LSU afternoon game and

315
00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:09,760
Speaker 2: Death Valley two point favorite.

316
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:11,360
Speaker 1: This. I think they open as a two two and

317
00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,040
Speaker 1: a half POE underdog. When openers came out, I was

318
00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:18,320
Speaker 1: tweeting a home dog hammer spot total sixty six and

319
00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:21,480
Speaker 1: a half here. Maybe we'll get another amazing shootout in

320
00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:24,240
Speaker 1: the three thirty CBS slot like we did last week

321
00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,040
Speaker 1: with Tennessee Alabama. Believe it or not, LIS two moves

322
00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,360
Speaker 1: into a share first place in the SEC West with

323
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,480
Speaker 1: a win. Look to me, we just talked about strength

324
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:36,200
Speaker 1: of schedule disparity. This is one of those games. LSU's

325
00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:39,080
Speaker 1: faced three teams currently ranked inside my top twenty of

326
00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 1: the Power ratings. Ole Misses face zero. Their best win

327
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,680
Speaker 1: was against Kentucky at home by three thanks to a

328
00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:50,400
Speaker 1: couple late Kentucky fumbles. I think from a matchup perspective here,

329
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:55,120
Speaker 1: LSU's defensive line can create enough negative plays to contain

330
00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:57,880
Speaker 1: the ole miss offense don't get their points, and then

331
00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,000
Speaker 1: on the other side of the ball Alice use. Offensive

332
00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:02,840
Speaker 1: line should control the line of scrimmage. They'll get their

333
00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:06,399
Speaker 1: ground game going, and then most importantly, they can build

334
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:08,720
Speaker 1: on the passing attack that we saw last week. We

335
00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:13,280
Speaker 1: heard Brian Kelly clamoring for deep shots being more aggressive. Well,

336
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:19,040
Speaker 1: what happened last week. After only throwing eighteen passes of

337
00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:22,679
Speaker 1: fifteen plus yards over the first five games just throwing,

338
00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:26,080
Speaker 1: he only attempted eighteen of the first five games, Jane

339
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:29,600
Speaker 1: Daniels completed eight of over fifteen yards in the first

340
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:34,159
Speaker 1: half alone. Last week. Also, Keisham Boute got going. He

341
00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 1: had one hundred and fifteen receiving yards. He only had

342
00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty over the first five weeks combined.

343
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,360
Speaker 1: So I love what I saw from the LSU offense.

344
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,440
Speaker 1: That's it. And then just this ole missed team. Look

345
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,040
Speaker 1: at their schedule and all of the results just have

346
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 1: not that I have not been impressed with them. Their

347
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:56,000
Speaker 1: running game has been really good, but I still don't

348
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,680
Speaker 1: really love this passing attack. And that's really how you

349
00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 1: can attack this LSU secondary. I think the weakness of

350
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:06,479
Speaker 1: the LSU team is still their secondary bunch of new guys.

351
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 1: Last week I was on LSU against Florida because I

352
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,400
Speaker 1: said Florida can't really take advantage. I don't think ole

353
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,640
Speaker 1: Miss will be able to on the road here. And

354
00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,640
Speaker 1: for what it's worth, Brian Kelly, since two thousand and five,

355
00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 1: thirty six fourteen and two against the spread, that's seventy

356
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,919
Speaker 1: two percent as an underdog or favored of less than

357
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 1: a field goal thirty six fourteen and two against the spread.

358
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:34,320
Speaker 1: That makes him the most profitable coach in college football

359
00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,920
Speaker 1: in that scenario since two thousand and five. So yeah,

360
00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,000
Speaker 1: I think LSU anything under a field goal is good here.

361
00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:45,320
Speaker 1: I think this ole Miss team is overrated. What has

362
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:47,879
Speaker 1: been impressive about ole Miss so far this year, even

363
00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:50,960
Speaker 1: some of their results against group of five teams, big

364
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,000
Speaker 1: time come back down the earth moment for ole Miss

365
00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 1: and LSU takes care of business at home. Do you agree?

366
00:18:58,280 --> 00:18:58,720
Speaker 1: I do.

367
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:00,679
Speaker 2: I mean a couple of week ago, I sat on

368
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:02,800
Speaker 2: this podcast and made a big case against Tennessee and

369
00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,080
Speaker 2: then they come out and give up field position on

370
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,240
Speaker 2: the wrong side of the field, They got fumbles, they

371
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,080
Speaker 2: got special teams airs, and Brian Kelly really mentioned this

372
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:11,600
Speaker 2: week in his press are He's saying we are just

373
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:15,240
Speaker 2: way too inconsistent. Jaden Daniels is way too inconsistent, Like

374
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 2: he had a great day torched Florida, right, but he

375
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 2: didn't torch Tennessee.

376
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:18,960
Speaker 1: Like.

377
00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,240
Speaker 2: It's just it's a very inconsistent team. But when they

378
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 2: play at their peak, there's a reason why they, you know,

379
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 2: are gonna cause stirrup some trouble here in the SEC West.

380
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:29,760
Speaker 2: But I think for Metal you.

381
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 1: Also wouldn't you expect them to be you know, we're

382
00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 1: in week seven now or game seven, week eight, Brian Kelly,

383
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 1: new regime, a lot of new parts. I think it's

384
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:42,560
Speaker 1: fair to assume that the consistency will get better as

385
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 1: the season progresses, right, yeah, yeah, I.

386
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,160
Speaker 2: Mean I said after that Florida State loss in Week

387
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 2: one that this will be the worst game that LSU

388
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:50,959
Speaker 2: ever plays. But then again, I didn't know that they

389
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 2: were going to punt the ball over the field against Tennessee.

390
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 2: But you know, they should get better, The consistency should

391
00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 2: get better. With getting to know your coaches, getting to

392
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,320
Speaker 2: know your fellow players, all that good stuff, and you

393
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:03,280
Speaker 2: know what their strength schedule is seventh. I mean, it

394
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,639
Speaker 2: has not been an easy route for LSU whatsoever up

395
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:09,160
Speaker 2: to this point. Their drops are decreasing each game. That's

396
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:12,160
Speaker 2: been very important. They had four against Auburn, three against Tennessee,

397
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,639
Speaker 2: just one against Florida. But the key to beating Ole

398
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,199
Speaker 2: Miss is stopping the rush, and LSU has given up

399
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,680
Speaker 2: a ton of yards on the ground. Tennessee average over

400
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 2: six yards per carry and Florida rushers not named Anthony

401
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 2: Richardson ran for over one hundred yards last week. So

402
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 2: the difference is they are one of the best top

403
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 2: twenty five and defensive finishing drives. They really stiffen up

404
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,040
Speaker 2: when it gets down around the red zone. I think

405
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 2: Old Miss has not been tested by a dual threat

406
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 2: quarterback at all. I think it's one place they can

407
00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 2: get easily exposed here by Jaden Daniels. So LSU I

408
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:44,879
Speaker 2: got it cheap. On the money line, I would again,

409
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 2: I don't know what your rules are, stuck like, I

410
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,080
Speaker 2: would buy it to one thirty five one thirty on

411
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:50,399
Speaker 2: a money line. I don't know if I want to

412
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 2: deal with two and a half.

413
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:53,680
Speaker 1: I have minus one and a half. Yeah, I don't

414
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 1: mind the money line. You can even find a minus

415
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 1: one thirty out there. I think LSU wins this game.

416
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 1: I would also play up to up to two two

417
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 1: and a half. But if you prefer the money line,

418
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,440
Speaker 1: don't mind that at all. Go Tigers, just go be on.

419
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:08,119
Speaker 2: There's no question about it.

420
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:13,920
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to our next marquee game

421
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 1: of the day, and we're gonna head out west to

422
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:20,439
Speaker 1: the PAC twelve. This is also three thirty fox. This

423
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:22,919
Speaker 1: is like last week you got the three thirty sec

424
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,680
Speaker 1: potential shootout and then you know the like the TCU

425
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:30,439
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. Well, in this this case, it'll be UCLA Oregon.

426
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 1: Oregon is a six point home favorite over under seventy

427
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 1: and a half. I'll I'm assuming you might, you might

428
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 1: pimp the over. I can't would not play the under,

429
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 1: even though totals in the seventies unders have done really well,

430
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: because it can you can't have anything go wrong. It's

431
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 1: kind of like an NFL total. It's fifty four, like

432
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 1: what happened with the Bills and Chiefs game. Like red

433
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 1: zone turnover, red zone turnover, good night, you're done, right,

434
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 1: So like if that happens in early on in Oregon,

435
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 1: you cant live at the over, but you might be done.

436
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 1: But there should be a ton of points in this game.

437
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 1: Both teams, if you just look from a metrics standpoint

438
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 1: on offense, are top ten units across the board. Bow

439
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:17,400
Speaker 1: Knicks has been tremendous. Bow Knicks season the full effect.

440
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 1: It's also home bow Knicks. I feel like we haven't

441
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 1: got bow Knick drops in a while. So the question

442
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 1: is is UCLA ready for this test? I was, we were. Look,

443
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 1: I was on UCLA against Washington. I was on UCLA

444
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: and so were you and I gain we were on

445
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 1: UCLA against Utah. But I do think that the Oregon defense,

446
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 1: now it does have some holes in the back end,

447
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 1: has more talent than both. Like the Washington defense was

448
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 1: exposed and we knew that was going to happen, and

449
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 1: then Utah's defense also has major issues. Both teams also

450
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 1: struggle their fronts. Their defensive fronts are not as strong

451
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 1: as Organs. I don't think UCI is going to be

452
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 1: able to run it successfully here. So it's gonna come

453
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 1: down to what can dtr do with his legs, like

454
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 1: his scramble ability, and then can he keep up through

455
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 1: the air. Just everywhere you look, all the offensive metrics

456
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 1: are elite, like trying to crack all right, who's played

457
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 1: a better schedule? We saw Oregon play Georgia. They got

458
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 1: blown out, but they moved the ball like their successor

459
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 1: was really high, which was really promising. And it was

460
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 1: like the first game with bo Nix and the new

461
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 1: coaching staff. So I'll get your thoughts on it first,

462
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 1: and then I'll respond, well, break this one down.

463
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna be able to print this box

464
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 2: score off on Saturday night and and laminate it and

465
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 2: stick that shit in the Smithsonian. This is the most

466
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 2: unbelievable offensive like heavy stats I've ever seen. So let

467
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,399
Speaker 2: me give in their fast and they're fast. Yeah, and

468
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 2: they're fast. I mean twenty three point six seconds per

469
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 2: play for UCLA. Let me give you the reasons why.

470
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 2: And hey, Colin doesn't like playovers in the seventies, But

471
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 2: let me give you reasons why I think we should.

472
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,919
Speaker 2: First off, DCR is going to have zero pressure. The

473
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 2: Oregon defense is outside the top one hundred pass rush,

474
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,479
Speaker 2: clean pocket. UCLA is sixth and standard down success, right,

475
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 2: What does that mean? They're always ahead of schedule, They're

476
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 2: always close to a first down. The Oregon defense is

477
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred and defending the pass, which

478
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 2: means that play action that's getting set up the whole

479
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 2: time for dtr to his tight ends. It's just it's

480
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 2: gonna be there all day. Oregon is one hundred and

481
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 2: twenty ninth and third down defense, they are only better

482
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,120
Speaker 2: than Colorado and Florida on third downs. On defense, they

483
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 2: can't stop anybody all you go to the other side

484
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 2: of the ball, Bonix will have zero pass rush. Oregon

485
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 2: is the best offense in the nation and pass blocking.

486
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 1: Uh, they would only given up like two sacks all year.

487
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, Oregon is number one nationally. I said standard down

488
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 2: success right sixth Organ's number one. UCLA is outside the

489
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 2: top seventy five and defensive success right, So Oregon's going

490
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 2: to move the chains at an extreme pace. Neither of

491
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 2: these defenses cause any havoc, and both of these teams

492
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 2: have massive edges and offensive finishing drives. As a matter

493
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,440
Speaker 2: of fact, the Ducks are one hundred and twenty third

494
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,680
Speaker 2: and defensive finishing drives. You cross the forty yard line

495
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 2: in this game, you get six points. Really, it's who

496
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 2: can stop the other at the fifty yard line.

497
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,119
Speaker 1: But so we can bet this over over seven and

498
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 1: a half.

499
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 2: I bet it.

500
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: I was leading.

501
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean so let's let's be realistic here, right, Well.

502
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 1: Will both teams get the thirty five? I think that's fair.

503
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 2: How do they not? And so I think, you know,

504
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 2: it would just be flukes.

505
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 1: And I also expect both teams to be aggressive on

506
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 1: fourth downs, like it's just gonna be pressing and then

507
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 1: you're not gonna get like fifty at the fifty, we're

508
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 1: gonna punt it and then try to pin like it's

509
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: just you know, on fourth and five, it's gonna be

510
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 1: let's go for it. And I think both coaches understand

511
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:52,119
Speaker 1: that the scramble ability of both quarterbacks against these defenses

512
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:57,160
Speaker 1: is massive. The Oregon offense, I think people don't know

513
00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:00,879
Speaker 1: just how good it is yet, and you offense is

514
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 1: all they've done is past every test, and I've talked

515
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 1: about del duto is a different player this year, and

516
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 1: the market still doesn't know. I don't think how good

517
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,919
Speaker 1: UCLA's offenses. So I was leaning over. I've always just

518
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 1: shy to bet over seventy and a half anything in

519
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 1: the seventies. It's like seventy percent to the under over

520
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: the past five years, but you know it's low seventies here,

521
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 1: and I agree. I think all the ingredients are here,

522
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 1: and it'll be damn fun. Who's called who's calling this game?

523
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 1: Gus Johnson? Is Gus Johnson calling this game? I'm gonna

524
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:29,919
Speaker 1: bet you over right now if he.

525
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 2: Is college football. There's gonna be so much offense in

526
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: this game. Like a third down stop is like spotting sasquatch.

527
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 2: For you Pacific Northwest people, know what your key numbers

528
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 2: are because for some reason, you know, Chip Kelly or

529
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 2: Dan Lanning go for it on fourth down and they

530
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 2: don't get it, and you may want to hit a

531
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:54,719
Speaker 2: live number sixty nine to be the one I look for.

532
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,160
Speaker 2: But yeah, over seventy and a half, over seventy one.

533
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 1: Just all right, I'm betting. I'm betting the total. It's

534
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 1: gonna be fun.

535
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 2: It's gonna be fun.

536
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh, thank you. That's exactly the response. I'm looking

537
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 1: for good stuff there that game. And we'll talk about

538
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 1: more about that game on the Big Bets on Campus

539
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 1: Live ten thirty eight Eastern on Twitter. Make sure you

540
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 1: check that out. All right, Let's move on to the

541
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 1: next market game of the day. It's a lot of agreement,

542
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 1: let's disagree. Texas at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State six point

543
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 1: home underdog total sixty and a half. You hear these

544
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 1: totals NFL sixty seventy scoring epidemic in the NFL, not

545
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: in college football. So I let you, But you want

546
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 1: to build a case for your boy, Spencer? Do you

547
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:40,199
Speaker 1: want me to go? And then you you?

548
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:41,879
Speaker 2: Okay, you know what, I will make a case for

549
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 2: Spencer Sanders. All right, the number open Texas minus one,

550
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 2: it's up to six and a half.

551
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: Right, that number you said, can you say, my boy Spencer,

552
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:48,679
Speaker 1: can you say that?

553
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 2: I don't know's.

554
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 1: I won't make you do that.

555
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 2: I will make you do the closest still water. I

556
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,400
Speaker 2: don't want any of that trash coming in my front door.

557
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 2: You know, Spencer Sanders, he might play, he might not,

558
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 2: and if he does, he might be limited. Right. He

559
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 2: got that Tony Romo Tourdol shot before the game last week,

560
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 2: and he was excellent in the first half, and then

561
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 2: he couldn't throw it deep in the second half. My

562
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 2: question to everybody is, what the hell does that matter?

563
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 2: Texas doesn't give up long passes anyways. It's not like

564
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 2: we've taken a big weapon away. Texas has only given

565
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 2: up five passes beyond thirty yards of this season. That's

566
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 2: a top ten number that defense excels at not giving

567
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 2: up long, deep passes. So when you see Spencer Sanders overthrow,

568
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 2: underthrow his wide receivers against TCU, do you know why

569
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 2: they did that against TCU? Because they're outside the top

570
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 2: one hundred and defending the pass. But I believe it

571
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 2: or not there one hundred and twenty eighth, and I

572
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 2: think in pass explosiveness defending pass explosiveness. So Spencer Sanders

573
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 2: had to take shots downfield because that was the weakness

574
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 2: of TCU. It's just not the game plan against Texas's defense. Now,

575
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 2: where can you attack the Texas defense. You can attack

576
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 2: them short zero to ten yards. They give up more

577
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 2: first downs than just about anybody in FBS to the pass.

578
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 2: And that's all on zero to ten stuff. So go

579
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 2: look at Spencer Sanders throwing chart from last week against TCU.

580
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 2: Four or four from behind the line of scrimmage, A

581
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 2: of a nine from zero to ten, four of eighteen

582
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,959
Speaker 2: every pass it went beyond ten yards. I guarantee you

583
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 2: they are not going to go deep on Texas. You

584
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 2: can run the ball against Texas and you can pass

585
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 2: from zero to ten on them. All day, So I

586
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 2: expect Sanders to be finding the first half similar to

587
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 2: last week. If I'm getting a little uncomfortable thinking the

588
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 2: SHOT's gonna wear off, then I might buy out of it.

589
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 2: But you know, I don't disagree that this Texas offense

590
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 2: is going to have their way going up and down

591
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 2: the field. I wrote this up for Action Network. It

592
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 2: says explicitly at the bottom Texas team total over thirty

593
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:42,959
Speaker 2: two and a half, I don't think they're gonna have

594
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 2: any problems scoring here. You know, Oklahoma State at six

595
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 2: or better has value because that is already factored in

596
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 2: that Sanders is not playing and Gunner Gundy is going

597
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 2: to play by the way Gunner Gundy can throw it

598
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 2: down the field. So but why would you like I said,

599
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 2: it's not in the game plan against Texas. But you know,

600
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 2: the Longhorns are going to have their day on offense.

601
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 2: They have the best success rate numbers on offense and

602
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 2: all of the Big Twelve, and their strength of schedule

603
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 2: is third in the nation. So what they've done, they've

604
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 2: done against really quality opponents. Then they've had her quarterbacks,

605
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 2: and they've had her quarterbacks. So I will, you know,

606
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 2: step aside and let you plead the case about why

607
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 2: someone should buy in on Texas at this number. But

608
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 2: I think once you see Spencer Sanders on the field,

609
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 2: say two pm Eastern, warming up, and he gets his shot,

610
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 2: you're going to see this number crash, probably down to

611
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 2: three and a half or four, maybe four and a half, right,

612
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 2: I just why would you buy this at Texas minus six?

613
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 2: I wouldn't touch this number right now.

614
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 1: I might buy a little bit now, just in case,

615
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: like Spencer Sanders gets ruled out or anything, and I'll

616
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 1: try to we'll try to get some news. But yeah,

617
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm gonna wait. If it's still, if it

618
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 1: looks like he's treading to play, I'll wait. I like Texas.

619
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 1: Anything under seven Spencer Sanders is clearly not right. You

620
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 1: can't throw it deep. There's also twenty five mile an

621
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 1: hour wins here. Guess what. Oklahoma State can't run the ball,

622
00:30:58,160 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 1: and you can't run the ball in Texas this year.

623
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 1: Guess who can run the ball? Texas best running back

624
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 1: in the country. And Oklahoma State's defense is just atrocious

625
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 1: all across the board. And I went back, I was

626
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 1: actually like, oh, I shouldn't have played DC. It went

627
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: back looked at the box score, TCU was way better,

628
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 1: and TCU's defense is world's worse than Texas. Texas defense

629
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 1: the most improved defense in the country by a country mile.

630
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 1: And the Oklahoma State can't run it, they can't defend

631
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 1: the run. Texas can run it, they can defend the run. Also,

632
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 1: Texas has better receivers, a better quarterback, and they're going

633
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: up against a worse pass defense. Oklahoma State's pass defense

634
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 1: the ninety fifth EPA p pass. I mean, it's just

635
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 1: their defense is bad across the board. I don't think

636
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 1: the market just knows just how bad this Oklahoma State defense.

637
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 1: As we talked about it before the year, their metrics

638
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 1: were all bad against a soft schedule. Texas had the

639
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 1: much tougher schedule. By the way, Yeah, I think Texas

640
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 1: going to be able to move the ball. It will,

641
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: I don't care how windy it gets. Dejon Robinson is

642
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 1: going to go bananas. Good luck Spencer Sanders trying to

643
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: throw eight yard passes and twenty nine hour wins. I

644
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: know that Texas been vulnerable there. They're gonna bring their

645
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 1: safeties up here and they're gonna there Spencer Sanders to

646
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 1: throw it deep, and I don't think he can. And

647
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 1: I think Texas rolls here. Third best team in the

648
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 1: country right now in my Power ratings is Texas. It's

649
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: not just like number like I've got to say, like, okay,

650
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 1: this is what they look like with yours. But this

651
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 1: is their defense. And this is another reason to expand

652
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 1: the College Twell playoff. You have a quarterback injury against

653
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 1: Alabama and you lose by one. You have a couple

654
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 1: of fumbles to Texas Tech when you were with your

655
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 1: backup quarterback, and you lose them a fluky fashion, their

656
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: College Twell Playoff shot is probably done. They would need

657
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 1: mass casts to get there, and by the end of

658
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 1: the year they might be one of the three or

659
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 1: four best teams in the country. So to everyone who

660
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 1: says like all the best teams always get in anyway,

661
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 1: it's not necessarily true. I favor of a Michigan, I

662
00:32:54,640 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 1: favor themover Clemson, Texas, I promise you, Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State,

663
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 1: whoever else gets in. By the end of the year,

664
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 1: they're gonna say, gimme Clemson, Thank God, I don't have

665
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: to play Texas.

666
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 2: You're right, Oklahoma's defense is not going to be able

667
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 2: to stop Texas from scoring.

668
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 1: Another factor, Texas unluckiest team in the country in field position,

669
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State the luckiest so far. Expect to have to change.

670
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 1: So aggression coming this way. Hook em hook em horns

671
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 1: all right before we continue. As a reminder, the Big

672
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: Bets on Campus podcast is probably presented by bet MGM.

673
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: So kick off the new Pro football season with the

674
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 1: King of sports books. Sign up with BETMGM using bonus

675
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 1: code Action two hundred, and your first wager is risk

676
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 1: free up to one thousand dollars. Visit betmgm dot com

677
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 1: for terms and conditions. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada,

678
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, puert Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, DC,

679
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 1: West Virginia, Wyoming, or Ontario only. Must be twenty one

680
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: years or older to wager nineteen or older in Ontario

681
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 1: New customer Offer. All promotions are subject qualification in eligibility requirements.

682
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 1: The rewards issued as a non withdrawable free bets or

683
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: cite credit free bets expire seven days from issuance. Excludes Michigan,

684
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 1: disassociated persons, Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem call one hundred

685
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 1: next Step in Arizona one eight hundred five two two

686
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:18,319
Speaker 1: forty seven hundred in Colorado, DC, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, Wyoming, Port,

687
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 1: Virginia one one hundred two seven zero seven to one

688
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 1: one seven for confidential help in Michigan, twenty hundred gambler

689
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 1: in Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, or West Virginia one eight

690
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa one eight hundred nine eight

691
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 1: one zero zero two three. In Puerto Rico, call eight

692
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 1: seven seven eight Hope NY or text Hope NY. In

693
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 1: New York, call or text to Tennessee Redline at eight

694
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 1: hundred eight nine nine seven eight nine or one eight

695
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 1: eight eight seven seven seven nine six nine six in Mississippi.

696
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:43,360
Speaker 1: In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns about your

697
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: gambling or.

698
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 3: Someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario at one

699
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 3: eight sixty six five three one two six zero zero

700
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:51,839
Speaker 3: to speak to an advisor free of charge. Sports betting

701
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 3: is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio, in Utah and other

702
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 3: states were prohibited. Promotional offers not available in Nevada and

703
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 3: New York. All right, that's what onto our final market

704
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 3: game of the day. We're going to stay in the

705
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 3: Big Twelve, and we're gonna go to prime time Kansas

706
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 3: State at TCU. TCU's a three and a half point

707
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 3: favored here over under fifty four. Look, these are two

708
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:14,800
Speaker 3: undefeated teams in the Big Twelve.

709
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 1: This game well of massive implications for who gets to

710
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,399
Speaker 1: the title game. I played Kansastate plus three half, which

711
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 1: is still available out there. It's a great spot. Number one,

712
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: are your Kansastate's coming off of a bye TCUs coming

713
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:32,280
Speaker 1: off they played their rival in the Iron Iron Skillet

714
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,399
Speaker 1: Bowl whatever against ESTIMEU and then three ranked teams. And

715
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 1: I've talked about the TCU defense. I think that there's

716
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 1: major holes and I don't think that the metrics, their

717
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 1: defensive metrics actually illustrate some of the holes in their defense,

718
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:46,920
Speaker 1: because take a look at who they just played. They

719
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 1: played three ranked teams, right, who did they beat? Oklahoma

720
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 1: State Spencer Standers deteriorated because of his injury in the

721
00:35:54,760 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 1: second half. It was clear Oklahoma they almost Dylan Gabriel

722
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:03,439
Speaker 1: in the first quarter, where at the early second quarter

723
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 1: and he was out for the game, and then you

724
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 1: had a literal pumpkin come in at quarterback. Their other

725
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 1: win against the rag team, Kansas Daniels gets hurt. So

726
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: they've played three ranked teams in a row. The starting

727
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 1: quarterback is either hurt or got hurt in all three,

728
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: and they still were in absolute shootouts. So I think

729
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 1: that this defense has holes. I think Kansas State can

730
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 1: exploit some of these holes. I also think Kansas State,

731
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 1: just on the ground, Ducebawn is going to be able

732
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 1: to get yardage and keep the sticks moving. And then

733
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: Kansas State's top twenty defense across the board, no matter

734
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 1: what metric you look at, most importantly top ten against

735
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 1: the pass. So I think big Duce Fawn game, great spot,

736
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 1: just a situational spot. It's gonna be close. TC. I

737
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 1: don't think TC is really capable of blowing out these

738
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,120
Speaker 1: top tier teams because their defense is just knocking to

739
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 1: get stops. So it'll probably be back and forth throughout.

740
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 1: So I'll gladly take the three and a half twenty

741
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:09,320
Speaker 1: mine hour wins. I think that favors Kansas State as well,

742
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 1: so I'll take the hook here. I think CCU might

743
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 1: run out of gas. The defense is gonna be exposed

744
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 1: as long as Adrian Martinez doesn't get hurt. A Tec

745
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 1: has been benefiting from QB injuries all year. Give be

746
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: the Wildcats emol. This is sort of a you're gonna

747
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 1: fade your babies. These are your babies, are your face.

748
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 1: You got to fade one of your babies.

749
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 2: I got TCU tickets all over the house. I got

750
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 2: a couple of Kansas State fourteen to ones around here somewhere,

751
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 2: and I've got to take inventory and just hope that

752
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 2: nobody gets hurt in this game. If you're gonna bet

753
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 2: Kansas State to win, and I think stuck where I'm

754
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 2: where I'm at is like, are we gonna put Kansas

755
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 2: State in the in the money line round robin Parlay

756
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 2: this weekend? And for Chris climban to, he's got to

757
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 2: call a perfect game and he's got to beat TCU

758
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:52,800
Speaker 2: by keeping that offense off the field. He's got to

759
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 2: keep Max Duggan and Quentin Johnson off the field because

760
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:57,879
Speaker 2: Kansas State against the pass is not very good at all.

761
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,360
Speaker 2: So you need Douce fall and Adrian Martin team is

762
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 2: to run all day. They need to ugly it up

763
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 2: in the trench because TCUs one hundred and fifth and

764
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 2: defensive stuff rate, and they let Oklahoma State look like

765
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 2: a decent run game, which is not true. And you

766
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 2: have to wonder how did Kansas keep it a one

767
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 2: possession game against the horn Frogs the entire time they

768
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 2: choked thirty four minutes off the clock, they averaged five

769
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 2: yards per carry. And Kansas State has the numbers in

770
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,399
Speaker 2: line yards and stuff rate to do the exact same

771
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 2: thing on offense. So the issue with the Wildcats on

772
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 2: defense is allowing explosives. The horn Frogs, of course, are

773
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:32,840
Speaker 2: top twenty on ground air. They can pick your poison,

774
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 2: they can hitch it either way. But Kansas State has

775
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 2: really struggled on the second level when it comes to

776
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 2: pass catchers that are loose and trying to tackle in space.

777
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 2: You know, against Iowa State and Texas Tech, Kansas State

778
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 2: allowed less than ten mist tackles. But before that, when

779
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 2: you had superior like in space athletes for Oklahoma and

780
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 2: tu Lane, those there were more than a dozen miss tackles.

781
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:54,439
Speaker 2: So I think that is the big wordy. Kansas State

782
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 2: needs to hog the ball. They need to make sure

783
00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 2: that they don't give up anything in the air to

784
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 2: Max Duggin, which is gonna be tough, but they're gonna

785
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 2: have to win in the trench. They're gonna have to

786
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 2: just play a bruising game at three. From a market perspective,

787
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 2: the number has moved a little bit too far. I

788
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 2: think it should be TCU minus five, and you saw

789
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 2: it come in heavy on Kansas State. Now it's down

790
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 2: to three and a half. The next move at a

791
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 2: couple of the shops that I trust and looking at

792
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 2: their movement is probably back to three. It's probably gonna

793
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 2: touch three and bounce. So you know, if you like

794
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 2: Kansas State, I'd probably go and scoop a three and

795
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 2: a half, and if you like TCU, probably just wait

796
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:29,439
Speaker 2: it out.

797
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:33,879
Speaker 1: I agree. The other thing is TCU's offense looks really good,

798
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 1: and they are really good, but they I just said,

799
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 1: the three teams that they beat, the three ranked teams

800
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 1: who all had quarterback injuries. Oklahoma State, the defense stinks,

801
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 1: Oklahoma defense stinks, Kansas defense stinks. This Kansas State defense

802
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:56,879
Speaker 1: is by far the best defense that they'll face. So yeah,

803
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of things working in the

804
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 1: situational spot as well. In Kansas State's favor. Happily take

805
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 1: the three and a half here, all right, let's move

806
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 1: on to the rundown. We'll go through six games fairly quickly.

807
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 1: Here I'll start off with SMU plus three. I like SMU. Here,

808
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 1: I'm selling Cincinnati. Look, Cincinnati started out one to one,

809
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 1: they lost Arkansas. They be the FCS team. They're in

810
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 1: a battle with Tulsa. Despite getting an early pick six.

811
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 1: They led a bad Indiana team back in the game.

812
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 1: You know, they extended that late mindvill Hive's back up.

813
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 1: They played mind and highs backup quarterback. They eventually pulled away,

814
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 1: but it was ugly. And then South Florida in Cincy

815
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 1: let in the fourth quarter at Cincinnati eventually, you know,

816
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 1: got to stop on the fourth down that the goal

817
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:44,399
Speaker 1: line and got the run out the clock. Ugly. There

818
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 1: are holes in this team, and they've been getting lucky.

819
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 1: They've recovered eight of twelve fumbles. They've converted five of

820
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 1: seven fourth downs, their opponents one of eleven and fourth

821
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 1: down and these have been like important fourth down swings.

822
00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 1: That's an FBS low nine percent conversion rate. Oponents are

823
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 1: nine percent on fourth down against since In contrast, opponents

824
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:08,319
Speaker 1: are eleven of eighteen against SMU. SMB has also played

825
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:11,360
Speaker 1: the much tougher schedule themeed of this podcast. They've played

826
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 1: three top forty teams in my power ratings Maryland, UCFTCU.

827
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 1: Cincinnati's faced one above average team nationally. That's it. They

828
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: haven't played anyone, and they've shown holes. SMU I have

829
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:26,759
Speaker 1: top I have forty fifth strength of schedule, Cincinnati's one

830
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 1: hundred and tenth. This will be the best aerial attack

831
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 1: that Cincinnati seen all year. And I think this is

832
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:36,800
Speaker 1: where you see the impact of the loss of Sauce Gardner,

833
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,760
Speaker 1: who's just killing it in the NFL. Two other pros

834
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 1: that they lost in the secondary. Look Cincinnati's defense the

835
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 1: best part about the Cincinnati's team. This team, and by

836
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: the way, they have injuries to wide receiver, running back,

837
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 1: in quarterback, we'll see they are coming off of a buye.

838
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,760
Speaker 1: But Cincinnati's defense is a leite at getting to the quarterback.

839
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 1: Third nationally in sacrate, SM's offense is thirteenth because they

840
00:41:57,600 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 1: get rid of the ball so quicks he kind of

841
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:04,359
Speaker 1: neutralize strength. The SMU defense thirty second is saccrate. They

842
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:08,320
Speaker 1: might actually have the bigger impact here against they're really aggressive,

843
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:10,839
Speaker 1: so they have holes. Obviously they're not great against the run,

844
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 1: but Cincinnati hasn't been running the ball well. Cincinnati's offensive

845
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:17,319
Speaker 1: line ninety eighth in sacrate, So I think you'll have

846
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 1: a chance. Defense is bad, but they all have the

847
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 1: chance to create some negative plays here. I think they're

848
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:23,919
Speaker 1: gonna be able to move the ball. I think since

849
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 1: he's right and I think he's going to pick him off,

850
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 1: I'll take the three at home.

851
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:29,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to be against you.

852
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 2: I'm having a hard time with this case on SMU

853
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 2: And as we talk about this, literally two of the

854
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:37,360
Speaker 2: Sharper shops taking this thing down to three off of

855
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 2: three and a half. So I understand the spot. It'd

856
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 2: be in a very popular underdog home spot here. But

857
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 2: the air raid from HTT Lashley, you know, I mean

858
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 2: going into fifteen mile an hour wins. There's just things

859
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 2: about this team that make me uncomfortable, Like what the

860
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 2: hell happened with Navy? How were they able to get

861
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 2: back into that game? SMU should have had that thing

862
00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:54,959
Speaker 2: wrapped up.

863
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:57,919
Speaker 1: Well, explain since he almost losing the South Florida at home?

864
00:42:58,160 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 2: I mean true, So I mean, we're we're in the

865
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 2: group five here, But the better ground game in this

866
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:05,279
Speaker 2: matchup is Cincinnati their tenth and offensive stuff right, and

867
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 2: SMU is a very four one hundred and seventh, So

868
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 2: the Bearcats are not gonna have any resistance running the ball.

869
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 2: And I just I'm having a problem trusting SMU with

870
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 2: my money. Maybe I'll come around by the time the

871
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 2: weekend comes, but they make me nervous in spots like this.

872
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 1: And we'll see, well I will be on that's you

873
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 1: think the game's at nude, So good luck to us

874
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,359
Speaker 1: if you joined me. All right, look b YU at

875
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:31,799
Speaker 1: Liberty BYU. Weird game here. This is like the religious bull.

876
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 1: It's the Evangelicals versus the Mormons. BYU coming off back

877
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:40,720
Speaker 1: to back losses here where their defense got embarrassed. Arkansas

878
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 1: put up six hundred and six forty four yards, and

879
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 1: the defensive quarterator came out and said, obviously, when you

880
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:48,239
Speaker 1: have games like Arkansas from top to bottom, you got

881
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 1: to look at who's doing what, what role you asked

882
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 1: to do or are you going to change your role?

883
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:55,040
Speaker 1: So the word is that there might be changes to

884
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:58,680
Speaker 1: the BYU defense. We'll see what it does. Look Liberty

885
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 1: one loss in the air. Their schedule is usually weak,

886
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:04,359
Speaker 1: but like they lost by one at Wake, they won

887
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 1: by fourteen at Old Dominion. That looks better. They beat UAB,

888
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:10,480
Speaker 1: they get lucky with turners, they leave the nation and

889
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:13,799
Speaker 1: takeaways at eighteen for what it's worth. But then last

890
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 1: week they have to come back to beat Gardner Webb

891
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:19,760
Speaker 1: at home by one. Why well, they have some injuries

892
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:22,960
Speaker 1: at receiver. But Bennett, the kid Bennett started a quarterback.

893
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 1: He's awful for Liberty, like enormous downgrade. He's a clown.

894
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 1: I'm sure he's a nice kid, but the quarterback is

895
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 1: not as strong as suit for right now. Their other

896
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 1: two quarterback options are much better. But I don't know

897
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 1: Salter's gonna play yet groin surgery. And Charlie Brewer he's back.

898
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 1: He was practicing over the past week or so, but

899
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 1: not confirmed in and then I mentioned they have some

900
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 1: receiver issues. But this is so big to me, like

901
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 1: who's going to start a quarterback for them? So I

902
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:52,680
Speaker 1: can't really make them play without knowing that. But BYU

903
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 1: travels to Liberty, here do you have anything here?

904
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 2: Well, this game is complete lunacy. Like Hugh Freeze coming

905
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 2: out and getting the on everybody like he didn't come

906
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 2: out and like quote the Book of Chronicles, chapter twenty eight,

907
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 2: but there's some real, like David Solomon shit going on here.

908
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 2: Like the vision of doctor Jerry Follwell Seniors to establish

909
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:12,799
Speaker 2: Liberty as a world class university.

910
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 4: My father's vision for Liberty University was to found a

911
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 4: world class Christian university that would be for evangelical young people.

912
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:21,840
Speaker 4: What Notre Dame is for Catholic young people and what

913
00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:23,760
Speaker 4: Brigham Young is for Mormon young people.

914
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:25,320
Speaker 1: Is any banned from campus?

915
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 2: The followell I think so, maybe Junior is so. And

916
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 2: the whole thing is like there's a whole David giving

917
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,880
Speaker 2: his son Solomon the plans for the temple like that

918
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 2: happened in the Bible and Chronicles, like Hugh Freeze thinks

919
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 2: that he's Solomon, and by getting BYU to come play

920
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:45,359
Speaker 2: a football game on campus means that he has finalized

921
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 2: the temple. In the vision of doctor Jerry Folwell Seniors.

922
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 2: Students at Liberty University.

923
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:52,320
Speaker 1: I tell them, you have the hope for this country

924
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 1: and your mission is to save America.

925
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 2: I'm going to help you win. Gosh, when is Hugh

926
00:45:57,160 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 2: freeze coming to sec. We need this kind of shit

927
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 2: back down in the style. So listen for Kalanie Sataki.

928
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 2: He's like trying to survive a fan base r right

929
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 2: now that is really pissed off. His defensive coordinator was

930
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:10,319
Speaker 2: getting yelled at walking off the field asking for his

931
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:13,800
Speaker 2: head to be fired. A really bad defensive performance, but stuck.

932
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:15,919
Speaker 2: You and I have been fading the BYU defense all year,

933
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 2: like the fact that they were able to cover b

934
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 2: Baylor and we saw them just get destroyed against bo Nicks.

935
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:23,520
Speaker 2: We've known that this defense has been a fade all

936
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:26,920
Speaker 2: season long. In Arkansas added that the defense is bottom

937
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 2: ten and numerous categories, and Sataki has said, I'm not

938
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 2: replacing my coordinator, but I'm definitely going to be more

939
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:35,320
Speaker 2: involved with the defense. I don't know if that equals improvement.

940
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 2: So this Liberty offense has been really bad at creating

941
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 2: quality drives, scoring opportunities, and just not being able to

942
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 2: take advantage of the issues that are going to have

943
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:47,760
Speaker 2: with BYU's defense. So for me, this is an underplay.

944
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 2: I projected at fifty five, so there's not that much

945
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 2: of an edge off fifty seven and a half and

946
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 2: it's definitely low volume, but I expect a better effort

947
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 2: out of the BIU defense, considering Sataki's name is now

948
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:00,400
Speaker 2: in charge of the defense, and this Liberty offense, with

949
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 2: their quarterback play, lots of injuries and the targets. Give

950
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:06,239
Speaker 2: me an under here for all that is holy In

951
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:09,239
Speaker 2: the Book of Chronicles, I I wonder fifty seven down

952
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:09,879
Speaker 2: to fifty five.

953
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 1: I've said to these young people repeatedly, and I say

954
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 1: it again, you are the hope of an area. When

955
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 1: you leave the graduation platform of Liberty, I want you

956
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 1: to leave it running, leave it running with the vision

957
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:27,319
Speaker 1: burning in your soul. Yeah. Yeah, fallwell Senior is dead.

958
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:31,600
Speaker 1: Fallwell Junior. Yeah, he's banned from He sued the university

959
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 1: for ten million university suit him. Wild stuff.

960
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 2: This is a biblical game for Hugh Freeze. You don't cuss,

961
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 2: you don't drink, So what are your vices?

962
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 1: I have been known to chew a bit of tobacco

963
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:47,319
Speaker 1: when I get a little tired or watching feel All right,

964
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:50,920
Speaker 1: let's go out our next game for say something that

965
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 1: we'll get in trouble for Mississippi State at Alabama. We're

966
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:57,760
Speaker 1: not gonna spend too much time on this but Alabama

967
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,839
Speaker 1: twenty one point favorite number says miss State. I won't

968
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 1: play miss State. I make this thirteen and a half,

969
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 1: but Alabam. I think Saban is eight to zero against

970
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 1: the spread after his last eight straight up losses. Mississippi

971
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,399
Speaker 1: State's run defense has issues. We talked about that last

972
00:48:14,440 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 1: week with Kentucky. Against Kentucky and against everyone they've played.

973
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 1: Angry Bama off of a loss, Angry Saban.

974
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 2: Why did you push yourself?

975
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:26,919
Speaker 1: And they've just He's savings dominated this series the past

976
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 1: two years. They've just completely shut down Mississippi State's offense. Now,

977
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 1: I still think Bama has issues. It's one of the

978
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:33,680
Speaker 1: reasons I was on them last week, like their secondary

979
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 1: getting toasted all day, the Kayaka scored another touchdown, and

980
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:42,240
Speaker 1: the receivers leave a little bit to be desired. Still,

981
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 1: I mean, Pryce Young is amazing, But.

982
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:50,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't mean the receivers. Maybe i'll the receiver's

983
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 2: minus one is what you mean? Minus Burton Jermaine Burton.

984
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:56,240
Speaker 1: Now yeah, well, by the way, what if Tennessee had

985
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 1: one of the best receivers in the country last week

986
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 1: after that didn't play? Yeah? Maybe after are a couple

987
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:05,479
Speaker 1: of drinks off fire Leach for couch change, but because

988
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 1: there is value in it, but I can't. Yeah, I

989
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:09,920
Speaker 1: did it last year. I said there's die in this

990
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:12,920
Speaker 1: number and they were down thirty five, nothing out of

991
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:13,320
Speaker 1: the gates.

992
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 2: Well, we said this against Texas A and M right,

993
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 2: we said the number is absolutely got awful. Twenty four

994
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:20,080
Speaker 2: is way too much, and then Texas A and M

995
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 2: went on to almost beat him. You know. So it's like,

996
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,160
Speaker 2: we keep getting these obnoxious numbers that don't align with

997
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 2: our power ratings, and then we have to side with

998
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:32,560
Speaker 2: what a Mississippi State team that has scored nine points

999
00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:35,480
Speaker 2: in the last eight quarters against Nick Saban. It's just

1000
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 2: it's a very very bad matchup for me. This is

1001
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:40,919
Speaker 2: an under all the way Nick Saban has said there's

1002
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:44,440
Speaker 2: a philosophical approach to attacking defenses for miss State. You're

1003
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:47,680
Speaker 2: doing that on the ground. This game screams Jalen Milroe.

1004
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,640
Speaker 2: It doesn't even scream like Bryce Young trying to take shots.

1005
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:53,920
Speaker 2: Jermaine Burton's not there after his little incident of hitting

1006
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 2: a Tennessee fan in the head. It's all on our TikTok,

1007
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 2: you know. And do we know off out was even

1008
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 2: capable of having explosive air attack and did they really

1009
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:04,880
Speaker 2: want to test that out here? So you know, the

1010
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 2: limitation has been Mike Leach's offenses against SABAN defenses. And

1011
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:10,760
Speaker 2: I don't think there's gonna be a lot of scoring

1012
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 2: from either of these teams. Now, if Jalen Milroe comes

1013
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:17,680
Speaker 2: into the game, I could be entertained into a live

1014
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:21,799
Speaker 2: game over, but it's sixty one sixty anything above fifty nine,

1015
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take it under here because Misissippi State has

1016
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:27,160
Speaker 2: proven they cannot score against an Alabama SABAN led defense.

1017
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 2: And throwing the balls not really the formula for beating

1018
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:32,319
Speaker 2: Missippi State. You gotta go ground and run, so that

1019
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:32,839
Speaker 2: means under.

1020
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 1: Speaking of flying objects, Penn State who was throwing their

1021
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 1: players were throwing peanut butter and jelly sandwiches at Michigan

1022
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:45,960
Speaker 1: during halftime after getting absolutely dominated and embarrassed in Anna Barbar.

1023
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 1: I think they were out gained by three hundred and

1024
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:51,719
Speaker 1: twenty yards. That was the easiest live that I've ever

1025
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 1: made in my life. It was like Michigan minus four

1026
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:55,840
Speaker 1: and a half. Despite having Right after the pick six,

1027
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 1: I was texting a friend. I was like, what he's

1028
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:01,120
Speaker 1: like should we hit Michigan and minus seven and a

1029
00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 1: half live? It was like eighteen to one first downs

1030
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:06,919
Speaker 1: and I'm like, let's wait, let's wait to see if

1031
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 1: stuff that happens here. As soon as I said that

1032
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 1: pick six minus four and a half live, which then

1033
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:15,760
Speaker 1: just started taking off, I mean, it was just complete

1034
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 1: domination or start to finish. Penn State is exposed. They're

1035
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 1: taking on him. They're hosting a Minnesota team who's lost

1036
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:25,080
Speaker 1: too straight. Both these teams, like seasons are pretty much

1037
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:27,839
Speaker 1: over for what they wanted to do. It's like who

1038
00:51:27,880 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 1: shows up here? Who gets up off the mat? I

1039
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 1: think is a serious question. Also, who's going to play

1040
00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:35,760
Speaker 1: quarterback for both each team? You also have Minnesota's offensive

1041
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 1: coordinator was at Penn State. There's a lot of questions here.

1042
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 1: I do know that Ibrahem, they're running back for Minnesota,

1043
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 1: is back, and Minnesota, who was a snail, is going

1044
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:49,359
Speaker 1: to pound him. They have a huge offensive line, and

1045
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:53,000
Speaker 1: Penn State, outside of Gustaf is small on the defensive

1046
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:55,200
Speaker 1: line and they can be run on. And I'm assuming

1047
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 1: that's the formula for Minnesota. I don't know if it's

1048
00:51:57,680 --> 00:52:00,400
Speaker 1: probably gonna be this Greek kid, this green kid from

1049
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:04,640
Speaker 1: Chicago who hasn't started a game since twenty nineteen in

1050
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:07,400
Speaker 1: high school. His twenty twenty high school season got canceled

1051
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:10,919
Speaker 1: due to COVID. Last year, you red shirted. Last week

1052
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:12,720
Speaker 1: he came in in like was like four or twelve

1053
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:16,880
Speaker 1: with two picks against Illinois, So I don't know how

1054
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:19,080
Speaker 1: much you could trust him to throw it. Tator Morgan

1055
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:20,319
Speaker 1: has with a throw at well, So I think it's

1056
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:23,759
Speaker 1: just like line up run hybrid all day. This might

1057
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 1: be an under and Penn State's offense is broken. They

1058
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 1: just have no explosiveness. The right tackles an issue. Clifford's

1059
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:36,719
Speaker 1: not playing well, their run stats are misleading. I don't

1060
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:38,279
Speaker 1: know who you're going to get a quarterback for either

1061
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:41,959
Speaker 1: of these teams, but I would maybe lean Minnesota. Lean

1062
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 1: under a lot of uncertainty still midweek, and he thoughts, yeah.

1063
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:49,480
Speaker 2: Sean Clifford has been practicing I think today and yesterday,

1064
00:52:49,560 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 2: so he is.

1065
00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:53,640
Speaker 1: He might be like a healthy scratch, though, I would

1066
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:56,800
Speaker 1: make him a healthy scratch like Frankloin might be like,

1067
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:57,880
Speaker 1: let's go with all her, you know.

1068
00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:01,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they've been asking the fan base, the donors,

1069
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:05,440
Speaker 2: everybody's been asking for a change here. Anyways, to me,

1070
00:53:05,520 --> 00:53:09,319
Speaker 2: this is Minnesota all the way. I debated making them

1071
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:12,480
Speaker 2: the money line underdog parlay here, but I did not

1072
00:53:12,560 --> 00:53:14,319
Speaker 2: go with someone else. We'll talk about that later, but

1073
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:18,280
Speaker 2: a very clean call on Michigan and their ground attack

1074
00:53:18,360 --> 00:53:20,840
Speaker 2: to run Penn State up a flagpole is exactly what

1075
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:23,320
Speaker 2: happened last week in Minnesota. Could absolutely do the same

1076
00:53:23,680 --> 00:53:27,240
Speaker 2: mo Ibraham four point seven yards after contact. Penn State's

1077
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:29,360
Speaker 2: going to have to bring a sack lunch, especially for

1078
00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 2: the backups Bryce Williams and Trey Potts. They both averaged

1079
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 2: more than three yards after contact, and they both created

1080
00:53:35,560 --> 00:53:40,400
Speaker 2: a combined twenty four missed tackles. Manny Diaz is they've

1081
00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:43,279
Speaker 2: made some good numbers on defense, but they're one hundred

1082
00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:45,680
Speaker 2: and thirteenth in tackling. You're not gonna be able to

1083
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:49,240
Speaker 2: bring down Ibraham, Bryce Williams, and Trey Potts with arm tackles.

1084
00:53:49,280 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 2: It's just not going to happen against this Minnesota offense. Listen,

1085
00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:54,560
Speaker 2: Minnesota runs at thirty one seconds per play. It's going

1086
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 2: to be a run fest. If Sean Clifford plays, that's

1087
00:53:57,040 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 2: going to turn into turnover worthy plays in favor of Minnesota.

1088
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 2: I like Minnesota and I just cover upset, give me

1089
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 2: it all with the Gophers.

1090
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 1: Here all right, another game on to the cover. Here

1091
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:10,120
Speaker 1: Cal hosting Washington Cal seven and a half point home dog.

1092
00:54:10,600 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 1: I love I love Cal. Here in the spot. This

1093
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:15,280
Speaker 1: is a great Bilos. But after they lost to Colorado,

1094
00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 1: I was on Colorado on this podcast. I said I

1095
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 1: wouldn't be shocked if Colorado one the game outright, and

1096
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:22,719
Speaker 1: they did so, I wasn't surprised by that result. What

1097
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:24,960
Speaker 1: does Cal do? They're inconsistent and what do they do

1098
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:28,759
Speaker 1: under Wilcox? They play up and down to every single opponent.

1099
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:31,560
Speaker 1: And by the way, this is the third time in

1100
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 1: the Justin Wilcox er over the past five years that

1101
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 1: they've lost to a team that has started oh and

1102
00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 1: five or worse. They in twenty eighteen they lost to

1103
00:54:39,000 --> 00:54:42,719
Speaker 1: own to five UCLA by thirty. In twenty twenty one,

1104
00:54:42,800 --> 00:54:46,040
Speaker 1: last year, they lost to to eight Arizona ten to three.

1105
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:49,439
Speaker 1: What did they do the next week? Did they bounce back? Well?

1106
00:54:49,719 --> 00:54:53,239
Speaker 1: Twenty eighteen, they won at Oregon State by forty two.

1107
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:56,720
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty one, after losing to Arizona, they went to

1108
00:54:56,760 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 1: Stanford and they won by thirty and just to have

1109
00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:03,799
Speaker 1: my point home of how will Cox's teams play up

1110
00:55:03,840 --> 00:55:06,520
Speaker 1: and down. He's twenty two to nine and one against

1111
00:55:06,560 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 1: the spread as an underdog, twenty two nine and one

1112
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 1: covered by five points per game, sixteen and three against

1113
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:17,480
Speaker 1: the spread. When he's catching seven or more points sixteen

1114
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:20,279
Speaker 1: and three, that's and six and zero at home. On

1115
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:23,000
Speaker 1: the flip side, he's eight fifteen and one against the

1116
00:55:23,000 --> 00:55:26,400
Speaker 1: spread as a favor Friends in a vacuum are meaningless.

1117
00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:29,240
Speaker 1: But this I'm using this to explain that col plays

1118
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 1: up and down to everyone under Wilcox.

1119
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 2: They always have.

1120
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:34,920
Speaker 1: They'll always lose to shitty teams, and then they'll keep

1121
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:37,640
Speaker 1: it close against good teams. So you know, there's a

1122
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:39,480
Speaker 1: lot of trends that you know, teams that lose as

1123
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:43,360
Speaker 1: two plus touchdown favorites that are now home dogs of

1124
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:46,120
Speaker 1: seven or more in conference are like sixty two percent

1125
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:48,520
Speaker 1: of the past thirty years. But you know, look, they

1126
00:55:48,560 --> 00:55:50,359
Speaker 1: have a West Coast offense that kind of gets stuck

1127
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:53,040
Speaker 1: in the mud. It's it's ugly with Plumber. They've really

1128
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:56,800
Speaker 1: missed the legs and mobility of Garber's. But this Washington

1129
00:55:56,880 --> 00:56:00,600
Speaker 1: defense is bad. So it's like bad offense versus bad defense,

1130
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:04,200
Speaker 1: and then good decal is a good defense, good defense

1131
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:07,440
Speaker 1: versus really good offense. And I just don't think that

1132
00:56:07,640 --> 00:56:12,600
Speaker 1: Washington's defense, which is reeling, should be a seven and

1133
00:56:12,640 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 1: a half point favorite. Here. They've played two road games

1134
00:56:15,640 --> 00:56:18,839
Speaker 1: this year. They lost outright to Arizona State has two

1135
00:56:18,880 --> 00:56:22,840
Speaker 1: touchdown favorites, and they lost outright to UCLA. As a

1136
00:56:22,880 --> 00:56:25,919
Speaker 1: field goal favorite, they give up forty in each. This

1137
00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:28,240
Speaker 1: is just a play up, bounce back spot for Cal.

1138
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 1: Give me the Bears.

1139
00:56:30,360 --> 00:56:32,719
Speaker 2: That's amazing. All those Justin Wilcox trends that you put

1140
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 2: out there. It's like we got another Tom Herman on

1141
00:56:34,600 --> 00:56:36,759
Speaker 2: her hand. Tom Herman is actually doing pretty good on

1142
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:39,600
Speaker 2: doing color commentary in some of these games. He's actually

1143
00:56:39,600 --> 00:56:41,520
Speaker 2: a pretty cerebral mind. I wouldn't have thought it.

1144
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 1: I like him. Yeah, he's well. Let me back up.

1145
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:49,799
Speaker 1: That's a really upset and dejected locker room. I mean,

1146
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:52,080
Speaker 1: we had guys in tears. That means we're headed in

1147
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:52,800
Speaker 1: the right direction.

1148
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 2: I think the thing that I'll add in here is

1149
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:57,919
Speaker 2: that Washington is you mentioned it lost on the road,

1150
00:56:58,160 --> 00:57:01,080
Speaker 2: absolutely completely lost, and they're even more were lost on

1151
00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:04,480
Speaker 2: the defensive side. Of the ball. Washington is allowing everyone

1152
00:57:04,520 --> 00:57:06,840
Speaker 2: to run through them. On defense, we might be the

1153
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:09,880
Speaker 2: only ones with an underdog ticket here money line, I

1154
00:57:09,880 --> 00:57:11,200
Speaker 2: don't know. We'll see, we'll see the fits in, but

1155
00:57:11,239 --> 00:57:12,520
Speaker 2: definitely cal plus seven and alfter.

1156
00:57:13,160 --> 00:57:16,320
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to rapid fire. Wena do

1157
00:57:16,640 --> 00:57:20,440
Speaker 1: five games? Maybe six? Do you just give a sentence

1158
00:57:20,520 --> 00:57:25,240
Speaker 1: or two and harve respond? North Texas at UTSA, big

1159
00:57:25,320 --> 00:57:30,640
Speaker 1: big game in Conference USA, UTSA ten quint favorite here

1160
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 1: over under seventy two and a half. Look, the d's

1161
00:57:34,160 --> 00:57:38,360
Speaker 1: are bad the past d especially for UTSA both and

1162
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:40,439
Speaker 1: the offense has been great. That's why this total seventy

1163
00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:42,040
Speaker 1: two and a half. What's the play here?

1164
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:45,600
Speaker 2: UTSA is going to cover the ten. You're right, both

1165
00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 2: defenses are bad, but North Texas is especially bad in

1166
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:53,040
Speaker 2: every single area. Frank Harris is gonna cook. If I

1167
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 2: was running a fantasy team, he would be my quarterback

1168
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:55,800
Speaker 2: this week.

1169
00:57:56,560 --> 00:58:00,680
Speaker 1: Toledo at Buffalo. One thing that I was surprised about

1170
00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:04,880
Speaker 1: is Buffalo's rundy has been pretty good, which will help here.

1171
00:58:05,280 --> 00:58:08,400
Speaker 1: But Toledo's getting its pass game going. Finn tikon Finn

1172
00:58:08,440 --> 00:58:11,640
Speaker 1: has been amazing, and this Buffalo team I think is

1173
00:58:11,680 --> 00:58:13,760
Speaker 1: a little bit of a paper tiger, and now they're

1174
00:58:13,800 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 1: going up against by far the best defense in the

1175
00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:20,080
Speaker 1: MAC thoughts here Toledo.

1176
00:58:19,720 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 2: Getting down like twenty eight to seven to Kent and

1177
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:27,080
Speaker 2: then you blink and they're up by like fourteen. That

1178
00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 2: really opened up my eyes to the fact that this

1179
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 2: Toledo offense is maybe the most explosive in the nation,

1180
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:35,440
Speaker 2: especially from a rushing perspective, and that's where they're going

1181
00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:38,560
Speaker 2: to be able to absolutely blow Buffalo out of the water.

1182
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:42,240
Speaker 2: Buffalo does not handle explosive offenses very well. They have

1183
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:44,360
Speaker 2: one of the lowest strength of schedules in the nation.

1184
00:58:45,240 --> 00:58:48,360
Speaker 2: Toledo is going to be able to get points up quick.

1185
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:50,720
Speaker 2: They're not going to have sustained drives. But I've got

1186
00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:53,080
Speaker 2: Toledo minus seven. It's a juice minus seven. I can

1187
00:58:53,120 --> 00:58:55,440
Speaker 2: see that there's a minus one fifteen out there. I

1188
00:58:55,440 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 2: would trying to get that minus seven. I think I

1189
00:58:57,040 --> 00:58:59,360
Speaker 2: make it nine. So yeah, Toledo all the way here.

1190
00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:01,480
Speaker 2: Too much explosiveness from the rockets.

1191
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:06,520
Speaker 1: Guy ruckets in fight weather doesn't look like it's gonna

1192
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:08,160
Speaker 1: be a factor here. It would be at the by

1193
00:59:08,200 --> 00:59:11,160
Speaker 1: of the day. A reminder it's fall. You want to

1194
00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 1: check the wind. Memphis at Tulane. This is a r

1195
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:19,720
Speaker 1: two lane boys, This is a brutal, brutal spot for Memphis.

1196
00:59:19,760 --> 00:59:23,840
Speaker 1: I mean you lose. You lose at Houston up two

1197
00:59:23,880 --> 00:59:25,720
Speaker 1: scores like a minute ago, you lose on an onside

1198
00:59:25,800 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 1: kick in the final seconds. You're up three scores in

1199
00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:31,479
Speaker 1: the second in the fourth quarter, then you're up three

1200
00:59:31,520 --> 00:59:34,400
Speaker 1: scores again at ECU and you end up losing in

1201
00:59:34,640 --> 00:59:38,040
Speaker 1: four overtimes. And then now you've got to go to

1202
00:59:38,080 --> 00:59:43,120
Speaker 1: Tulane and pick yourselves up for what it's worth. Since

1203
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:48,880
Speaker 1: arriving at Tulane in twenty sixteen, Willie Fritz twenty seven

1204
00:59:49,520 --> 00:59:53,360
Speaker 1: eleven and one against the spread at home. No other

1205
00:59:53,400 --> 00:59:55,320
Speaker 1: coach has been more profitable at home. Or that's been

1206
00:59:55,440 --> 00:59:58,240
Speaker 1: twenty seven eleven to one. I was shocked. He's doing

1207
00:59:58,280 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 1: something right at home, or everyone is partying when they

1208
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:04,840
Speaker 1: go to play Tulane. But tou Lane has been amazing

1209
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:07,000
Speaker 1: at home. Tough spot for Memphis. What do you see here?

1210
01:00:07,160 --> 01:00:09,800
Speaker 2: If you've not tailgated a euleman and had some crawfish,

1211
01:00:09,840 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 2: It's like the best thing ever. I love New Orleans,

1212
01:00:12,840 --> 01:00:15,200
Speaker 2: but my body can only take it once every ten years. Listen,

1213
01:00:15,240 --> 01:00:16,880
Speaker 2: if you're gonna go up against Memphis, you're gonna have

1214
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:18,439
Speaker 2: to have a good pass dave because that's what Seth

1215
01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:22,480
Speaker 2: Henigan does. He is This is a very good passing team.

1216
01:00:22,760 --> 01:00:25,160
Speaker 2: Two Lane has the goods on defense, there's seventh in

1217
01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:27,960
Speaker 2: the nation and coverage is awesome. TWU Lane is perfectly

1218
01:00:27,960 --> 01:00:30,760
Speaker 2: built to defend. And they had too many athletes on

1219
01:00:30,840 --> 01:00:32,880
Speaker 2: offense for this Memphis defense to try to keep up

1220
01:00:33,080 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 2: that Memphis deve has generate any havoc, they can't stop

1221
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:39,160
Speaker 2: the pass. So yeah, Wave get green, Wave all the way.

1222
01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:44,640
Speaker 1: Ulm at Army. Army sat eight starters last week, I think,

1223
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:47,160
Speaker 1: and they said because of injury, like every important starter.

1224
01:00:47,720 --> 01:00:49,520
Speaker 1: I assume that was just because, like, let's get him

1225
01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:52,720
Speaker 1: rest and we're playing Colgate Army six and a half

1226
01:00:52,760 --> 01:00:54,800
Speaker 1: seven point favorite over Under fifty five and a half.

1227
01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:56,280
Speaker 1: Any quick thoughts.

1228
01:00:56,640 --> 01:00:58,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I took Ulm at seven. I'd probably take it

1229
01:00:58,640 --> 01:01:01,560
Speaker 2: again at six and a half. I'm not proud taking

1230
01:01:01,560 --> 01:01:04,480
Speaker 2: a Sunbelt team like this on the road. But with

1231
01:01:04,600 --> 01:01:08,840
Speaker 2: Tyler Tyler to hear, the quarterback for Army dealing with

1232
01:01:08,960 --> 01:01:11,400
Speaker 2: I believe in ankle injury. Not sure if he's going

1233
01:01:11,440 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 2: to play. You have to have a quarterback that knows

1234
01:01:13,800 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 2: how to run this offense to get the Army of

1235
01:01:15,600 --> 01:01:17,600
Speaker 2: the Army's offense is just broken when they do not

1236
01:01:17,680 --> 01:01:19,960
Speaker 2: have a quarterback that can run the triple. When you

1237
01:01:19,960 --> 01:01:23,560
Speaker 2: look at Ulm sixteenth defensively in stuff right, they have

1238
01:01:23,600 --> 01:01:27,000
Speaker 2: a much better strength of schedule than Army. That tells

1239
01:01:27,040 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 2: me they're gonna be able to plug the A, B

1240
01:01:28,720 --> 01:01:31,960
Speaker 2: and C gap and hold, contain and stop this triple.

1241
01:01:32,040 --> 01:01:36,600
Speaker 2: So I'm on Ulm on the dog train. I'm not

1242
01:01:36,600 --> 01:01:38,320
Speaker 2: going to do an underdog parlay with them. I'm not

1243
01:01:38,360 --> 01:01:41,640
Speaker 2: taking a Sunbelt team named Ulm on the road to

1244
01:01:41,680 --> 01:01:43,560
Speaker 2: win a game out right. But they have the goods

1245
01:01:43,560 --> 01:01:45,920
Speaker 2: on defense to clog up Army's triple.

1246
01:01:48,360 --> 01:01:51,640
Speaker 1: Hard pass for me. Kansas at Baylor Baylor nine and

1247
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:53,480
Speaker 1: a half point favorite. It looks like shape. It is

1248
01:01:53,520 --> 01:01:54,760
Speaker 1: going to practice practicing.

1249
01:01:54,800 --> 01:01:55,440
Speaker 2: It is good to go.

1250
01:01:55,680 --> 01:01:58,000
Speaker 1: I didn't think you had a shot to play this week.

1251
01:01:58,120 --> 01:02:02,280
Speaker 1: And he is an amazing accurate quarterback when he's kept clean.

1252
01:02:02,640 --> 01:02:08,600
Speaker 1: He'll be kept clean here against Kantas's defense and Baylor. Look,

1253
01:02:08,680 --> 01:02:11,320
Speaker 1: I was down on them and then I dug into

1254
01:02:11,320 --> 01:02:13,640
Speaker 1: them today. Really I mean they might be the best

1255
01:02:13,640 --> 01:02:17,240
Speaker 1: three and three team ever. They had three unlucky losses,

1256
01:02:17,240 --> 01:02:20,760
Speaker 1: like they outplayed Oak State. They really should have beat

1257
01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:23,640
Speaker 1: West Virginia. I was on in West Virginia, got really

1258
01:02:23,720 --> 01:02:26,160
Speaker 1: unlucky there. And then you know a cup a field goal,

1259
01:02:26,320 --> 01:02:28,080
Speaker 1: one of a million field goals because where they win

1260
01:02:28,080 --> 01:02:33,840
Speaker 1: at theyu so they could easily be six and now here. Okay,

1261
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 1: this is Baylor or nothing for me? You agree?

1262
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:39,400
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I hit Baylor earlier today once the news

1263
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:42,840
Speaker 2: came out that Shaping is in practice, feeling good, looking good,

1264
01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:45,400
Speaker 2: a lot of positive energy coming out of Blake Shaping

1265
01:02:45,720 --> 01:02:47,680
Speaker 2: from the practice reports. So I hit that at nine

1266
01:02:47,720 --> 01:02:49,360
Speaker 2: and a half. Those are starting to disappear in ten.

1267
01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:51,880
Speaker 2: So if you're listening to this late Thursday Friday morning

1268
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:53,200
Speaker 2: and you see a nine and a half scoop, it,

1269
01:02:53,360 --> 01:02:55,960
Speaker 2: I make it eleven and a half. So I still

1270
01:02:56,000 --> 01:02:58,000
Speaker 2: would play it at ten, at ten and a half

1271
01:02:58,040 --> 01:03:00,120
Speaker 2: and eleven, and then you're dealing with coaches that are

1272
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:03,840
Speaker 2: trying to cut leads to eleven, so I'd be cautious there.

1273
01:03:03,880 --> 01:03:06,640
Speaker 2: But yeah, Baylor all the way. For me. This Kansas

1274
01:03:06,640 --> 01:03:09,520
Speaker 2: defense is getting worse. One hundred and seventeenth than defensive havoc.

1275
01:03:10,000 --> 01:03:12,479
Speaker 2: Usually on Tuesdays, I'll put out like a graphic chart,

1276
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:15,120
Speaker 2: an x white chart that shows like success rate and

1277
01:03:15,200 --> 01:03:19,920
Speaker 2: finishing drives. Crazy enough, Baylor has the best x Y

1278
01:03:20,080 --> 01:03:24,200
Speaker 2: access of offensive success rate and offensive finishing drives out

1279
01:03:24,200 --> 01:03:26,040
Speaker 2: of all the teams in the Big twelve. Because versus

1280
01:03:26,040 --> 01:03:27,600
Speaker 2: a big search like who's gonna win the Big Twelve,

1281
01:03:28,120 --> 01:03:31,240
Speaker 2: Baylor has the best mixture. And so I believe in

1282
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:33,439
Speaker 2: Blake shaping and I'm gonna back him here. At this number,

1283
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:34,720
Speaker 2: I would buy it all the way up to eleven.

1284
01:03:36,640 --> 01:03:39,760
Speaker 2: One sentence on Boise air Force Taylor Green is gonna

1285
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:42,919
Speaker 2: get stopped. Air Force is better in the trench. They're

1286
01:03:42,960 --> 01:03:44,400
Speaker 2: gonna win. But I'm not taking two.

1287
01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:46,880
Speaker 1: I think air Force is going on too. They've been

1288
01:03:46,960 --> 01:03:48,760
Speaker 1: a lot of injuries and they should be the healthiest

1289
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 1: they've been all year.

1290
01:03:49,680 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 2: This year, Boise's rush defense wasn't what I thought it

1291
01:03:52,400 --> 01:03:56,960
Speaker 2: would be either. You know So's They've fallen outside the

1292
01:03:56,960 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 2: top forty in defensive finishing drives and the rush defense

1293
01:04:00,160 --> 01:04:02,640
Speaker 2: fifty third stuff right, So I that shocked me. I

1294
01:04:02,680 --> 01:04:05,920
Speaker 2: thought Boise's defense was just as good at plugging the

1295
01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:08,520
Speaker 2: trench as air Force was, but it's actually not true

1296
01:04:08,640 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 2: so air Force, but don't don't ask me about two

1297
01:04:12,040 --> 01:04:14,000
Speaker 2: and a half or two that it gets scary.

1298
01:04:14,040 --> 01:04:17,240
Speaker 1: Then, all right, before we get to some trash, remind

1299
01:04:17,280 --> 01:04:18,560
Speaker 1: everyone to make sure you check out the group of

1300
01:04:18,600 --> 01:04:21,080
Speaker 1: five guys off back to back sweeps. They've been killing it.

1301
01:04:21,320 --> 01:04:23,720
Speaker 1: The episode comes out the day before us, same feed,

1302
01:04:24,560 --> 01:04:26,280
Speaker 1: usually like a half hour thirty five minutes. To make

1303
01:04:26,320 --> 01:04:28,640
Speaker 1: sure you check them out. You'll become smarter. All right,

1304
01:04:28,800 --> 01:04:33,000
Speaker 1: it's time stick of the week. Let's take out some trash.

1305
01:04:33,400 --> 01:04:38,000
Speaker 1: What's that smell? It's Diggs me this trash.

1306
01:04:37,800 --> 01:04:39,640
Speaker 2: The sweet, sweet trash.

1307
01:04:40,560 --> 01:04:44,720
Speaker 1: The trash is a gold mine, old mind. Everyone is

1308
01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:47,840
Speaker 1: loving these because I've been on fire and I've said

1309
01:04:47,960 --> 01:04:51,280
Speaker 1: many times all it takes is one in five week

1310
01:04:51,320 --> 01:04:53,880
Speaker 1: and you will not be loving these suffering through these games,

1311
01:04:53,920 --> 01:04:56,400
Speaker 1: but I'll still be doing it. It's not for everyone though,

1312
01:04:57,440 --> 01:04:59,560
Speaker 1: But I've never gotten more messages like I love all

1313
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:01,760
Speaker 1: these bad teams. I'm like, yeah, so do I when

1314
01:05:01,760 --> 01:05:04,600
Speaker 1: they're covering. But it's not all roses all the time.

1315
01:05:04,880 --> 01:05:07,960
Speaker 1: But hopefully it can stay that way this year. All right,

1316
01:05:08,000 --> 01:05:11,040
Speaker 1: first one temple, yup, they gave up seventy. We bet

1317
01:05:11,120 --> 01:05:13,800
Speaker 1: them last week. We're betting them again. Friday Night. Al

1318
01:05:13,800 --> 01:05:17,240
Speaker 1: gifts plus thirteen against Tulsa their past, he's been great.

1319
01:05:17,360 --> 01:05:20,680
Speaker 1: Top forty EPA for pass. That's all Tulsa does. Temple

1320
01:05:20,720 --> 01:05:24,200
Speaker 1: also top five sacrate nationally. They can get after the quarterback,

1321
01:05:24,320 --> 01:05:27,200
Speaker 1: a couple of good defensive ends Tulsa offensive line one

1322
01:05:27,280 --> 01:05:30,040
Speaker 1: hundred and seventeenth and sack grate. Brin will be hit.

1323
01:05:30,440 --> 01:05:32,600
Speaker 1: Dave will have some negative plays here their past, he's

1324
01:05:32,600 --> 01:05:34,720
Speaker 1: been good. Tulsa can't run the ball, cannot run the

1325
01:05:34,720 --> 01:05:36,560
Speaker 1: ball at all, and they don't really try to run

1326
01:05:36,560 --> 01:05:40,040
Speaker 1: the ball. And then Tulsa's defense is awful, awful, especially

1327
01:05:40,080 --> 01:05:43,640
Speaker 1: their defensive line. Tulsa gets no pressure. Temple covers back

1328
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:46,480
Speaker 1: to the Als. Agree or disagree Friday Night by are you.

1329
01:05:46,640 --> 01:05:47,960
Speaker 2: Back involved with the Philly mob?

1330
01:05:48,040 --> 01:05:48,120
Speaker 1: Like?

1331
01:05:48,120 --> 01:05:50,120
Speaker 2: Where are you on this Temple team all the time? No?

1332
01:05:50,120 --> 01:05:52,880
Speaker 1: No, this is only the second time. It should be fifteen.

1333
01:05:53,040 --> 01:05:55,600
Speaker 2: No, I'm out, pick another one. Go to the trash again.

1334
01:05:56,560 --> 01:05:59,600
Speaker 1: I'm on it. Al's Al gifts you won't be partaking,

1335
01:05:59,640 --> 01:06:04,040
Speaker 1: You'll be else fiu at Charlotte, Charlotte, Mine is fourteen nol.

1336
01:06:04,080 --> 01:06:06,080
Speaker 1: I'm just waiting for fourteen. This is Charlotte get right game.

1337
01:06:06,240 --> 01:06:09,120
Speaker 1: Reynolds is healthy against a trash FIU team. I only

1338
01:06:09,200 --> 01:06:12,480
Speaker 1: know if all pads FIU also plays fast and throws

1339
01:06:12,520 --> 01:06:15,360
Speaker 1: a ton. What does that mean? Lots of possessions, lots

1340
01:06:15,360 --> 01:06:17,760
Speaker 1: of opportunity to get blown out. They lost by twenty

1341
01:06:17,840 --> 01:06:20,800
Speaker 1: nine at Texas State. They lost seventy three nothing at

1342
01:06:20,800 --> 01:06:25,000
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky, nineteen at home to Yukon, and twenty at

1343
01:06:25,000 --> 01:06:28,600
Speaker 1: home to UTSA. Tyrese Chambers is their best player at

1344
01:06:28,640 --> 01:06:30,840
Speaker 1: only player. He had two hundred yards receiving in two

1345
01:06:30,880 --> 01:06:33,960
Speaker 1: touchdowns agains Charlotte. Last year Charlotte won forty five thirty three.

1346
01:06:34,080 --> 01:06:36,840
Speaker 1: FIU is better, by the way, he's a gaming time decision.

1347
01:06:37,200 --> 01:06:39,439
Speaker 1: He is their best player. So if he doesn't play it,

1348
01:06:39,800 --> 01:06:43,000
Speaker 1: this is a banger. But even if he does, Charlotte

1349
01:06:43,000 --> 01:06:44,160
Speaker 1: wins by two touchdowns or more.

1350
01:06:44,720 --> 01:06:46,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna join you, but I'm gonna hold out

1351
01:06:46,600 --> 01:06:49,680
Speaker 2: for fourteen. It did hit fourteen in one of the

1352
01:06:49,720 --> 01:06:52,440
Speaker 2: sharpest books for nine minutes and then it left fourteen.

1353
01:06:52,720 --> 01:06:54,840
Speaker 2: I will join you there. The number is about six

1354
01:06:54,880 --> 01:06:57,120
Speaker 2: points too short, and you're right, this is a good

1355
01:06:57,120 --> 01:07:00,600
Speaker 2: healthy game against a horrendous Florida Internetion defense.

1356
01:07:01,440 --> 01:07:06,000
Speaker 1: Vandy at Missouri. I took Vandy too many points against Missouri.

1357
01:07:06,160 --> 01:07:10,160
Speaker 1: Missouri's offense is Badvandy's improved, like they just get athletically

1358
01:07:10,800 --> 01:07:14,480
Speaker 1: overwhelmed by like the Georgia's in Alabamas. But we saw

1359
01:07:14,520 --> 01:07:17,200
Speaker 1: them against old mess they were right there with them.

1360
01:07:17,640 --> 01:07:20,160
Speaker 1: This Missouri team isn't really built to blow out anybody.

1361
01:07:20,720 --> 01:07:23,680
Speaker 1: It's a bad Missouri O versus a bad Vandy d

1362
01:07:24,160 --> 01:07:26,360
Speaker 1: and then it's an improved Dandy o versus a MISSOURID

1363
01:07:26,480 --> 01:07:29,200
Speaker 1: that's grading out very well. Lower scoring game. I kind

1364
01:07:29,200 --> 01:07:31,400
Speaker 1: of like the under here, and the under has taken

1365
01:07:31,440 --> 01:07:35,120
Speaker 1: a lot of money that favors the dog. Vandy's played

1366
01:07:35,160 --> 01:07:38,479
Speaker 1: Old miss Wake Forest, Georgia, and Alabama already, Like, yeah,

1367
01:07:38,520 --> 01:07:41,200
Speaker 1: it's been tough, but they can This will be more

1368
01:07:41,800 --> 01:07:43,520
Speaker 1: their speed. I think they can hang around here.

1369
01:07:43,840 --> 01:07:46,360
Speaker 2: Well, Vanderbilt is will coach. They're second in the nation

1370
01:07:46,680 --> 01:07:49,400
Speaker 2: in tackle grading, and believe it or not, their offense

1371
01:07:49,480 --> 01:07:53,360
Speaker 2: is twentieth and finishing drive. So they have made improvements.

1372
01:07:53,400 --> 01:07:56,000
Speaker 2: I'm not sure they're going to be a nationally known

1373
01:07:56,080 --> 01:07:57,960
Speaker 2: program like Clark Lee wants them to be, like you

1374
01:07:58,000 --> 01:08:01,080
Speaker 2: said at SEC media Days, we know that.

1375
01:08:01,080 --> 01:08:03,480
Speaker 1: In time Vannerible football will be the best program in

1376
01:08:03,480 --> 01:08:04,000
Speaker 1: the country.

1377
01:08:05,480 --> 01:08:07,200
Speaker 2: But yeah, there's a lot of good things going on here.

1378
01:08:07,240 --> 01:08:08,720
Speaker 2: As to where Missouri is kind of headed in the

1379
01:08:08,800 --> 01:08:11,440
Speaker 2: other direction. The under, I think still has the room

1380
01:08:11,480 --> 01:08:14,720
Speaker 2: to run. I projected at forty seven. The side is

1381
01:08:14,760 --> 01:08:16,479
Speaker 2: at fifteen. So I'll let you have the Vandy, but

1382
01:08:16,560 --> 01:08:18,839
Speaker 2: I will play an under with you.

1383
01:08:18,840 --> 01:08:27,000
Speaker 1: We got one more we go Hawaii, Hawaii plus five

1384
01:08:27,000 --> 01:08:29,799
Speaker 1: of Colorado State. I don't think that the market knows

1385
01:08:29,920 --> 01:08:33,200
Speaker 1: that Hawaii's improving. And you know, their defense just held

1386
01:08:33,880 --> 01:08:36,880
Speaker 1: also the last second at San Diego State and then

1387
01:08:36,960 --> 01:08:40,000
Speaker 1: they blew out Nevada. They held both teams to under

1388
01:08:40,040 --> 01:08:42,880
Speaker 1: seventeen points, and you would expect why to improve like

1389
01:08:42,920 --> 01:08:45,920
Speaker 1: it was a complete rebuild for a new coach. The

1390
01:08:46,080 --> 01:08:49,519
Speaker 1: biggest thing that they've done is they went away from

1391
01:08:49,800 --> 01:08:53,719
Speaker 1: Joey Yellen at quarterback and now it is all Shager

1392
01:08:53,800 --> 01:08:57,840
Speaker 1: getting all the snaps ready. Here are the difference between

1393
01:08:57,840 --> 01:09:03,160
Speaker 1: the two, Yelling forty eighty forty six percent, three point

1394
01:09:03,240 --> 01:09:08,800
Speaker 1: seven yards per attempt, zero touchdowns, two interceptions, seventy two

1395
01:09:08,920 --> 01:09:12,639
Speaker 1: rating Sager ninety six of one to sixty seven fifty

1396
01:09:12,640 --> 01:09:16,599
Speaker 1: eight percent compared to forty six one thousand and twenty

1397
01:09:16,600 --> 01:09:19,400
Speaker 1: eight yards. Six point two yards pert tempt compared to

1398
01:09:19,439 --> 01:09:22,960
Speaker 1: three point seven for Yellen. Three touchdowns, five interceptions, one

1399
01:09:23,000 --> 01:09:26,360
Speaker 1: hundred and nine rating, night and day. I don't know

1400
01:09:26,360 --> 01:09:28,559
Speaker 1: why they were trying to keep going with Yellen. The

1401
01:09:28,600 --> 01:09:32,200
Speaker 1: offense is better. Colorado State's offense is still completely broken.

1402
01:09:32,280 --> 01:09:34,400
Speaker 1: I don't care if Clay Millen comes back this week.

1403
01:09:34,840 --> 01:09:37,320
Speaker 1: Every teams figured out you just double Horton, that's it,

1404
01:09:37,400 --> 01:09:40,559
Speaker 1: and then their offense is broken. Yes, they won at Nevada.

1405
01:09:41,120 --> 01:09:43,320
Speaker 1: Why he just blew out Nevada by way? Colorida State

1406
01:09:43,400 --> 01:09:44,760
Speaker 1: won in Nevada and I was on them. They had

1407
01:09:44,760 --> 01:09:47,920
Speaker 1: two defensive touchdowns to get to fourteen points and then

1408
01:09:47,960 --> 01:09:50,439
Speaker 1: they needed three do over field goals to win the game.

1409
01:09:50,880 --> 01:09:53,840
Speaker 1: Then last week they play Utah State, it's close, they

1410
01:09:53,920 --> 01:09:58,920
Speaker 1: lose to a fourth string emergency quarterback, and you got dominated. Statistically.

1411
01:09:59,040 --> 01:10:02,280
Speaker 1: This team is. You cannot bet them as a favor.

1412
01:10:02,560 --> 01:10:06,439
Speaker 2: Hawaii Bows, I'm gonna be against you here now, and

1413
01:10:06,520 --> 01:10:10,559
Speaker 2: I think what's your lay? And I like, yeah, I know,

1414
01:10:10,640 --> 01:10:14,240
Speaker 2: and I actually like Hawaii. I mean, I needed Nevada

1415
01:10:14,360 --> 01:10:16,640
Speaker 2: under five on the season, and Hawaii won as an

1416
01:10:16,680 --> 01:10:18,800
Speaker 2: underdog last week. I couldn't be happier with that. But

1417
01:10:18,800 --> 01:10:20,880
Speaker 2: there's something about an aspect of this game that really

1418
01:10:20,880 --> 01:10:23,760
Speaker 2: bothers me, and it's the elevation. So Hawaii has come

1419
01:10:23,800 --> 01:10:26,320
Speaker 2: over three times to the States to play games, and

1420
01:10:26,360 --> 01:10:28,760
Speaker 2: when they played Michigan and they played San Diego State,

1421
01:10:28,760 --> 01:10:30,920
Speaker 2: they covered, right, I mean in San Diego State, they

1422
01:10:30,960 --> 01:10:33,200
Speaker 2: should have won that game out right, lost by just

1423
01:10:33,240 --> 01:10:35,280
Speaker 2: two points. But when they went and they played in

1424
01:10:35,280 --> 01:10:37,760
Speaker 2: New Mexico State and Las Crusis, with an elevation of

1425
01:10:37,800 --> 01:10:40,720
Speaker 2: four thousand feet, they got stumped. I believe this is

1426
01:10:40,720 --> 01:10:43,639
Speaker 2: the highest elevation that we have in all of FBA.

1427
01:10:43,680 --> 01:10:46,800
Speaker 2: Maybe Wyoming, Wyoming's got a beat, but wow, yeah, So,

1428
01:10:46,880 --> 01:10:48,640
Speaker 2: I mean this is still a really high elevation, and

1429
01:10:48,720 --> 01:10:51,800
Speaker 2: that aspect makes me nervous. When you are on the

1430
01:10:51,800 --> 01:10:55,200
Speaker 2: island and your elevation is literally zero and you're going

1431
01:10:55,280 --> 01:10:57,240
Speaker 2: to travel all the way into Colorado and then play

1432
01:10:57,240 --> 01:10:59,240
Speaker 2: at that kind of elevation when there's history here, when

1433
01:10:59,280 --> 01:11:02,479
Speaker 2: New Mexico State had a lot of success against you, Uh,

1434
01:11:02,640 --> 01:11:05,479
Speaker 2: that makes me nervous. So you know, I'll dig a

1435
01:11:05,520 --> 01:11:06,680
Speaker 2: little bit more. No I'm not.

1436
01:11:07,880 --> 01:11:10,200
Speaker 1: You're the main trash man. You're gonna lay points of

1437
01:11:10,280 --> 01:11:13,080
Speaker 1: Colorado State. That's even trashier than trash.

1438
01:11:13,600 --> 01:11:15,960
Speaker 2: Somehow I make this Colorado State minus nine.

1439
01:11:17,400 --> 01:11:19,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, go back in. Look they lost at home to

1440
01:11:19,520 --> 01:11:23,040
Speaker 1: a four string emergency developmental quarterback last week. Yeah, this

1441
01:11:23,120 --> 01:11:24,880
Speaker 1: is dare I dare you to bet that and put

1442
01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:25,439
Speaker 1: that in the app.

1443
01:11:25,840 --> 01:11:28,760
Speaker 2: I'll bet it now at five, all right, put it.

1444
01:11:28,720 --> 01:11:32,000
Speaker 1: In time for We've covered twenty five games already. You

1445
01:11:32,040 --> 01:11:34,240
Speaker 1: won't find us anywhere else any other podcast. This is

1446
01:11:34,280 --> 01:11:37,839
Speaker 1: why we don't sleep for days. San Diego State Collins,

1447
01:11:37,880 --> 01:11:40,040
Speaker 1: time for your totally at a bye last week? Yeah,

1448
01:11:40,080 --> 01:11:42,080
Speaker 1: you're hot. You've won one in a row after losing

1449
01:11:42,120 --> 01:11:44,840
Speaker 1: five in a row. Are callers who live for this

1450
01:11:45,520 --> 01:11:48,439
Speaker 1: one minute? San Diego State at Nevada. I don't even

1451
01:11:48,479 --> 01:11:50,000
Speaker 1: know what the over under? What is it like thirty?

1452
01:11:50,640 --> 01:11:53,000
Speaker 2: It's thirty, it's thirty six, right, but we're gonna go

1453
01:11:53,080 --> 01:11:55,920
Speaker 2: under here. And I think the one reason I'm gonna

1454
01:11:55,960 --> 01:11:58,479
Speaker 2: do an under on San Diego State even at thirty six,

1455
01:11:59,000 --> 01:12:01,280
Speaker 2: I see a thirty five and half out there. For

1456
01:12:01,320 --> 01:12:05,559
Speaker 2: some reason, Jeff Eklinsky has Braxton Burmeister lining up at

1457
01:12:05,560 --> 01:12:09,720
Speaker 2: wide receiver and fielding passes in practice at wide Receiver's

1458
01:12:09,760 --> 01:12:09,960
Speaker 2: just a.

1459
01:12:10,040 --> 01:12:11,880
Speaker 1: Vertical offense that you talked about.

1460
01:12:11,880 --> 01:12:15,360
Speaker 2: It's electric and it's vertical. Something is planned up as sleeve.

1461
01:12:15,520 --> 01:12:17,360
Speaker 2: And I think maybe I've learned enough that when you

1462
01:12:17,400 --> 01:12:20,680
Speaker 2: take your primary quarterback who's at his third university and

1463
01:12:20,720 --> 01:12:23,919
Speaker 2: you move him out to wide receiver, something deeply disturbing

1464
01:12:24,000 --> 01:12:26,559
Speaker 2: is going on with this program at the quarterback position.

1465
01:12:27,000 --> 01:12:28,680
Speaker 2: So I'm going to take it under this week for

1466
01:12:28,720 --> 01:12:31,400
Speaker 2: everybody out there. I'll be under San Diego State, Nevada

1467
01:12:31,600 --> 01:12:32,160
Speaker 2: thirty six.

1468
01:12:33,360 --> 01:12:36,800
Speaker 1: There it is over in Nevada. That's miserable. All right,

1469
01:12:37,240 --> 01:12:40,519
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, we have one more

1470
01:12:40,560 --> 01:12:44,679
Speaker 1: final quarter business. Let's go free and out.

1471
01:12:44,920 --> 01:12:47,560
Speaker 2: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1472
01:12:48,600 --> 01:12:52,800
Speaker 1: All right, first down favorite bet I'm going to go

1473
01:12:53,000 --> 01:12:56,559
Speaker 1: with ECU back to my boys, who have just true

1474
01:12:56,600 --> 01:12:59,240
Speaker 1: to me very well this year. I've betting on Holton Allers,

1475
01:12:59,240 --> 01:13:00,200
Speaker 1: who's on fire.

1476
01:13:00,840 --> 01:13:02,880
Speaker 4: That's going to be the best part I've ever seen.

1477
01:13:04,320 --> 01:13:07,639
Speaker 1: So it would seem this is the time that fag

1478
01:13:07,760 --> 01:13:10,680
Speaker 1: ucf I scored seventy on Temple last week. They have

1479
01:13:10,840 --> 01:13:14,000
Speaker 1: Sinci on deck, which is a huge game in the conference.

1480
01:13:14,240 --> 01:13:16,320
Speaker 1: Now you're going on your you're leaving the state for

1481
01:13:16,400 --> 01:13:19,599
Speaker 1: the first time, you're playing in your first real environment

1482
01:13:19,640 --> 01:13:21,920
Speaker 1: for the first time. You're not playing in the bounce house,

1483
01:13:21,920 --> 01:13:25,560
Speaker 1: beating up on Little Temple. And what does UCF the

1484
01:13:25,800 --> 01:13:29,880
Speaker 1: You know, they have a great RPO offense with plumb

1485
01:13:29,920 --> 01:13:32,479
Speaker 1: Lee at quarterback, but if you take away his running

1486
01:13:32,520 --> 01:13:35,560
Speaker 1: ability and UCS running ability, the offense goes into a

1487
01:13:35,600 --> 01:13:39,000
Speaker 1: shell because he can't pass consistently. And look, they rank

1488
01:13:39,040 --> 01:13:40,920
Speaker 1: in the top twenty and yards per carry EPA for

1489
01:13:41,040 --> 01:13:44,759
Speaker 1: rush rush success rate. Well, east US run defense breaks

1490
01:13:44,760 --> 01:13:46,920
Speaker 1: to the top twenty in all three categories. Their run

1491
01:13:46,960 --> 01:13:49,640
Speaker 1: defense has been awesome this year. Look back at that

1492
01:13:49,680 --> 01:13:54,040
Speaker 1: Louisville game. Once they took away plumb Lee's ability to run,

1493
01:13:54,479 --> 01:13:58,560
Speaker 1: the offense was non existent. So yeah, I think this

1494
01:13:58,640 --> 01:14:02,320
Speaker 1: is a great spot here. Pirates weakness is their secondary

1495
01:14:02,840 --> 01:14:06,479
Speaker 1: I don't think Plumbley can really exploit it. And I

1496
01:14:06,479 --> 01:14:08,280
Speaker 1: think hold Now has got plenty of time to throw

1497
01:14:08,360 --> 01:14:11,080
Speaker 1: here pick apart, you see, because UCF doesn't really generate

1498
01:14:11,120 --> 01:14:14,960
Speaker 1: pressure this year and Holten's been shredding, We're going to

1499
01:14:15,120 --> 01:14:15,760
Speaker 1: see you at home.

1500
01:14:17,640 --> 01:14:20,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna pivot over to the Oklahoma State Texas game,

1501
01:14:20,360 --> 01:14:22,479
Speaker 2: and it's kind of a two parter. Right, Oklahoma State

1502
01:14:22,520 --> 01:14:24,360
Speaker 2: at six and a half is way too high. That's

1503
01:14:24,360 --> 01:14:26,920
Speaker 2: already assuming that Spencer Sanders is not in this game.

1504
01:14:27,280 --> 01:14:29,559
Speaker 2: The real true number on this game should be Texas

1505
01:14:29,600 --> 01:14:32,040
Speaker 2: minus one. I expect when we find out that Spencer

1506
01:14:32,080 --> 01:14:34,439
Speaker 2: Sanders is playing in this game, there'll be some buyback

1507
01:14:34,479 --> 01:14:36,519
Speaker 2: down to about four and a half, getting value into

1508
01:14:36,520 --> 01:14:39,439
Speaker 2: the current number in the market. But Texas is going

1509
01:14:39,439 --> 01:14:41,880
Speaker 2: to roll here. Oklahoma State is playing terrible defense. It

1510
01:14:41,960 --> 01:14:45,120
Speaker 2: just hasn't been exposed. So as a best bet played

1511
01:14:45,160 --> 01:14:47,719
Speaker 2: with the Oklahoma State early. Maybe catch it live after

1512
01:14:47,760 --> 01:14:49,960
Speaker 2: the tour. It all shot on Spencer Sanders, Whereas off

1513
01:14:49,960 --> 01:14:53,320
Speaker 2: at halftime, and look for Texas to go over thirty

1514
01:14:53,360 --> 01:14:54,440
Speaker 2: two and a half points.

1515
01:14:54,840 --> 01:14:59,720
Speaker 1: All right, second down our favorite overdog, it's our favorite favorite.

1516
01:15:00,200 --> 01:15:05,240
Speaker 1: I am going to go with LSU small home favorite.

1517
01:15:05,600 --> 01:15:07,840
Speaker 1: Liked them up to minus I like them anything below

1518
01:15:07,920 --> 01:15:11,360
Speaker 1: minus three. Mentioned talked about this game earlier. I think

1519
01:15:11,400 --> 01:15:14,040
Speaker 1: ole Miss is a fraud else who's had the much

1520
01:15:14,040 --> 01:15:16,280
Speaker 1: tougher schedule. I think they'll control the line of scrimmage.

1521
01:15:16,640 --> 01:15:19,080
Speaker 1: This has it all. This is time for ole Miss

1522
01:15:19,080 --> 01:15:22,760
Speaker 1: to heat their medicine. As I mentioned earlier, as an

1523
01:15:22,880 --> 01:15:27,320
Speaker 1: underdog or favorite of three or fewer points. Brian Kelly

1524
01:15:27,400 --> 01:15:30,960
Speaker 1: is thirty six fourteen and two against the spread, seventy

1525
01:15:31,000 --> 01:15:35,120
Speaker 1: two percent. Most profitable coach over the past twenty years.

1526
01:15:35,400 --> 01:15:38,960
Speaker 1: With those parameters, LSU takes care of business and death

1527
01:15:39,040 --> 01:15:40,679
Speaker 1: Valley Go targets.

1528
01:15:41,680 --> 01:15:44,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to do. Maryland is my favorite overdog.

1529
01:15:44,040 --> 01:15:47,600
Speaker 2: It's a huge number, teetering around thirteen and a half fourteen.

1530
01:15:48,439 --> 01:15:51,560
Speaker 2: The reason why it's so low is because the discount

1531
01:15:51,600 --> 01:15:54,040
Speaker 2: is coming from quarterback Talia Tagovayola. We don't know if

1532
01:15:54,040 --> 01:15:56,080
Speaker 2: he's going to be available for this game. Behind him

1533
01:15:56,160 --> 01:16:00,320
Speaker 2: is Billy Edwards Junior. Two TD passes this year. This

1534
01:16:00,360 --> 01:16:03,080
Speaker 2: could be revenged for Mike Loxley. Last time he faced

1535
01:16:03,080 --> 01:16:05,439
Speaker 2: Pat Fitzgerald, he was drum forty three to three in

1536
01:16:05,439 --> 01:16:08,519
Speaker 2: the pandemic season of twenty twenty. And there's really no

1537
01:16:08,640 --> 01:16:11,000
Speaker 2: advantage for Pat Fitzgerald off of a bye week. Since

1538
01:16:11,040 --> 01:16:13,759
Speaker 2: twenty ten, he's barely above five hundred against the spread.

1539
01:16:14,080 --> 01:16:17,240
Speaker 2: Northwestern is one hundred and thirtieth in coverage. They are

1540
01:16:17,400 --> 01:16:20,759
Speaker 2: not good against passing offenses whatsoever, and that's what Maryland

1541
01:16:20,800 --> 01:16:23,400
Speaker 2: is despite who's playing quarterback. It's just the scheme that

1542
01:16:23,439 --> 01:16:26,360
Speaker 2: Locksley wants to run. Considering there's a monster gap in

1543
01:16:26,400 --> 01:16:29,479
Speaker 2: finishing drives here, give me Maryland to cover a large

1544
01:16:29,560 --> 01:16:32,040
Speaker 2: number and expect a lot of steam on Saturday morning.

1545
01:16:32,120 --> 01:16:34,599
Speaker 2: If tackle Baola is confirmed for this game.

1546
01:16:35,320 --> 01:16:38,879
Speaker 1: Hi, let's move on to our favorite money line underdog

1547
01:16:41,840 --> 01:16:45,200
Speaker 1: turning good weekends into great weekends.

1548
01:16:45,680 --> 01:16:48,240
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay.

1549
01:16:49,600 --> 01:16:52,200
Speaker 1: Last week we swept again, second time in three weeks.

1550
01:16:52,240 --> 01:16:57,120
Speaker 1: We're getting hot. I had LSU and you had Bowling Green.

1551
01:16:58,160 --> 01:17:01,880
Speaker 1: This week, I'm gonna go with South Carolina against This

1552
01:17:01,920 --> 01:17:04,600
Speaker 1: is one of my favorite bets too, against Texas A

1553
01:17:04,640 --> 01:17:08,240
Speaker 1: and M. I think South Carolina is extremely underrated in

1554
01:17:08,280 --> 01:17:11,479
Speaker 1: the market because I mentioned this many times their defensive injuries.

1555
01:17:11,479 --> 01:17:14,600
Speaker 1: Earlier in the year. They had up to eight starters

1556
01:17:14,600 --> 01:17:18,639
Speaker 1: out against Arkansas and they're early in the SEC schedule,

1557
01:17:18,760 --> 01:17:22,920
Speaker 1: so defensive numbers are artificially low. They're very healthy now.

1558
01:17:23,320 --> 01:17:25,839
Speaker 1: They basically had a two week by They played Charlotte

1559
01:17:25,840 --> 01:17:30,320
Speaker 1: and South Carolina State before Kentucky the best they looked

1560
01:17:30,320 --> 01:17:33,840
Speaker 1: all year. Now they get another buy before Texas A

1561
01:17:33,880 --> 01:17:37,720
Speaker 1: and M. And for what it's worth Shane Beemer three

1562
01:17:37,800 --> 01:17:40,160
Speaker 1: and oh against the spread, three and oh straight up

1563
01:17:40,880 --> 01:17:46,040
Speaker 1: after a bye. He beat Florida outright as seventeen and

1564
01:17:46,080 --> 01:17:47,960
Speaker 1: a half point underdogs last year. I think they won

1565
01:17:48,040 --> 01:17:52,599
Speaker 1: by fifty beat Kentucky that was last week as four

1566
01:17:52,680 --> 01:17:54,880
Speaker 1: or five point underdogs, and then in the bowl game

1567
01:17:55,000 --> 01:17:58,160
Speaker 1: with the wide receivers playing quarterback, he won outright as

1568
01:17:58,200 --> 01:18:00,920
Speaker 1: twelve and a half point underdogs. Actually make South Carolina

1569
01:18:00,880 --> 01:18:03,040
Speaker 1: a small favorite. I think Texas anem is a fraud.

1570
01:18:03,280 --> 01:18:04,960
Speaker 1: What have they done this year? They lost to app

1571
01:18:05,040 --> 01:18:08,960
Speaker 1: State at home. They hung with damas backup who just

1572
01:18:09,000 --> 01:18:12,000
Speaker 1: tried to give him a million turnovers here here, they

1573
01:18:12,040 --> 01:18:15,320
Speaker 1: got trucked by Mississippi State, which looks worse. There are

1574
01:18:15,320 --> 01:18:19,280
Speaker 1: two wins against Miami in Arkansas. They should have lost both.

1575
01:18:19,640 --> 01:18:20,960
Speaker 1: This team has lost. I don't even know he's going

1576
01:18:21,000 --> 01:18:23,679
Speaker 1: to play quarterback. They might go with the freshman and look,

1577
01:18:23,720 --> 01:18:26,599
Speaker 1: the Texas A and M defense cannot stop the run.

1578
01:18:26,920 --> 01:18:30,680
Speaker 1: Their defense is not playing well upfront. South Carolina has

1579
01:18:30,720 --> 01:18:33,120
Speaker 1: one of the most underrated rushing attacks in the country.

1580
01:18:33,280 --> 01:18:36,120
Speaker 1: Marshall Lloyd is a stud. I mean, look the Aggie's

1581
01:18:36,320 --> 01:18:39,400
Speaker 1: outside the top hunderd in line yards opportunity rate. South

1582
01:18:39,439 --> 01:18:43,679
Speaker 1: Carolina IRAT ranks top thirty in ePaper rush rush success rate.

1583
01:18:44,040 --> 01:18:46,200
Speaker 1: Lloyd's gonna have a big day here. It's also maybe

1584
01:18:46,240 --> 01:18:49,240
Speaker 1: a sleepy spot right now. I'm going to South Carolina bright.

1585
01:18:49,439 --> 01:18:51,960
Speaker 1: You know, Williams Brice will be popping Texa. Anim is

1586
01:18:52,000 --> 01:18:54,479
Speaker 1: oh missed next week. Their seasons already over based on

1587
01:18:54,479 --> 01:18:56,799
Speaker 1: their goals. This is a big game for South Carolina

1588
01:18:56,840 --> 01:18:59,120
Speaker 1: team trending up. I like South Carolina to get this

1589
01:18:59,160 --> 01:18:59,679
Speaker 1: done at home.

1590
01:19:00,520 --> 01:19:03,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna return back to Macchet. I'm gonna take Ohio.

1591
01:19:04,280 --> 01:19:06,519
Speaker 2: I'm gonna pull it off here for us, another big

1592
01:19:06,560 --> 01:19:08,360
Speaker 2: Mac win. Let's go ahead.

1593
01:19:08,439 --> 01:19:10,479
Speaker 1: Well, this is like last week. I'm going sc and

1594
01:19:10,520 --> 01:19:11,080
Speaker 1: you're gone Mac.

1595
01:19:11,360 --> 01:19:12,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, except I'm going very weird.

1596
01:19:12,960 --> 01:19:14,480
Speaker 1: Ship is usually the opposite.

1597
01:19:15,080 --> 01:19:19,200
Speaker 2: I'm going up against our dreaded, hated Northern Illinois Thomas

1598
01:19:19,200 --> 01:19:23,160
Speaker 2: Hammock Rocky Lombardi combination here. But the Bombcats are thirty

1599
01:19:23,200 --> 01:19:25,559
Speaker 2: eighth the defensive stuff right, and that is I must have.

1600
01:19:25,640 --> 01:19:28,960
Speaker 2: When Rocky Lombardi has returned a quarterback for NIU, he

1601
01:19:29,040 --> 01:19:31,360
Speaker 2: runs a lot of zone read with Harrison Whaley and

1602
01:19:31,400 --> 01:19:34,559
Speaker 2: Ontario Brown and Ohio the fact that they can defend

1603
01:19:34,560 --> 01:19:36,040
Speaker 2: that and plug the A, B and C gap and

1604
01:19:36,080 --> 01:19:39,000
Speaker 2: keep containing they're gonna be able to limit Northern Illinois

1605
01:19:39,040 --> 01:19:41,600
Speaker 2: and some of their offense. And Thomas Hammock loves to

1606
01:19:41,600 --> 01:19:43,679
Speaker 2: burn clock. He's a he's a former running back coach,

1607
01:19:43,720 --> 01:19:47,160
Speaker 2: former running back himself. He's near twenty nine seconds per

1608
01:19:47,200 --> 01:19:50,320
Speaker 2: play for Northern Illinois. But Ohio has given up massive

1609
01:19:50,400 --> 01:19:53,519
Speaker 2: yards through the air and just and his limited ground attacks.

1610
01:19:53,520 --> 01:19:56,439
Speaker 2: Believe it or not, Iowa State only had twenty four

1611
01:19:56,520 --> 01:19:59,799
Speaker 2: rushing yards and twenty two attempts against Ohio earlier this season.

1612
01:20:00,400 --> 01:20:03,840
Speaker 2: Curtis Rourke quarterback for Ohio. He has seventy percent completion rate,

1613
01:20:04,120 --> 01:20:06,679
Speaker 2: a fourteen to three T to I in T ratio,

1614
01:20:07,000 --> 01:20:09,400
Speaker 2: with one of the lowest turnover worthy play rates of

1615
01:20:09,439 --> 01:20:12,080
Speaker 2: his three year career since he's been at Ohio, and

1616
01:20:12,439 --> 01:20:14,320
Speaker 2: I used defense as one hundred and twenty first in

1617
01:20:14,360 --> 01:20:17,840
Speaker 2: coverage and one hundred and twenty fifth against pass explosiveness.

1618
01:20:18,000 --> 01:20:19,920
Speaker 2: Ohio is going to have a lot of success here

1619
01:20:20,040 --> 01:20:25,120
Speaker 2: against a slow, grinding NIU offense that doesn't really get

1620
01:20:25,160 --> 01:20:28,320
Speaker 2: points up fast. Look for Curtis Rourke, a little brother

1621
01:20:28,320 --> 01:20:30,120
Speaker 2: of Nathan Rourke, to get it done for the bobs

1622
01:20:30,160 --> 01:20:32,920
Speaker 2: here and put one in the hat for this Maci's

1623
01:20:33,000 --> 01:20:34,240
Speaker 2: team against the Macwest team.

1624
01:20:34,720 --> 01:20:38,559
Speaker 1: There you have it, thirty games. We touched on thirty games.

1625
01:20:39,120 --> 01:20:43,000
Speaker 1: That was fun. I hope we can stay hot have

1626
01:20:43,040 --> 01:20:45,360
Speaker 1: another big weekend. Hope he took some good nuggets out

1627
01:20:45,360 --> 01:20:47,639
Speaker 1: of us and enjoyed the listen. We enjoy you guys

1628
01:20:47,680 --> 01:20:50,560
Speaker 1: as always. Thanks as always to Colin for joining me.

1629
01:20:50,640 --> 01:20:53,400
Speaker 1: Thanks as always to all of the people on the

1630
01:20:53,400 --> 01:20:57,360
Speaker 1: back end, especially our producer Matt Mitchell, Christina and the

1631
01:20:57,439 --> 01:21:00,240
Speaker 1: video team. Everyone in the back end that makes us.

1632
01:21:00,600 --> 01:21:02,960
Speaker 1: By the way, leave a review five star review. We

1633
01:21:02,960 --> 01:21:06,519
Speaker 1: do giveaways all the time. If we have one now, Mitchell,

1634
01:21:07,040 --> 01:21:10,759
Speaker 1: throw one out there. Thanks Ducky. We got two winners today.

1635
01:21:10,920 --> 01:21:16,480
Speaker 2: We've got reviewer gator Hater and reviewer see Veltree.

1636
01:21:16,960 --> 01:21:17,880
Speaker 1: So you do.

1637
01:21:18,040 --> 01:21:20,719
Speaker 2: Individuals, thank you so much for the five star reviews.

1638
01:21:20,800 --> 01:21:25,320
Speaker 3: Email me at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to claim

1639
01:21:25,360 --> 01:21:28,320
Speaker 3: your prize and marry bone next season.

1640
01:21:28,760 --> 01:21:32,200
Speaker 1: To all those who celebrate makes you subscribe on Subscribe, subscribe,

1641
01:21:32,200 --> 01:21:34,200
Speaker 1: tell a friend, tell an enemy. If you have already

1642
01:21:34,240 --> 01:21:37,320
Speaker 1: left the review, take borrow your girlfriend's phone or your

1643
01:21:37,320 --> 01:21:40,680
Speaker 1: friend's phone, and leave one, they help us out, nine

1644
01:21:40,720 --> 01:21:44,360
Speaker 1: to five nine bad Beat. We'll recap the weekend. We'll

1645
01:21:44,360 --> 01:21:47,120
Speaker 1: play your voicemails. Call about anything, bitch out about us

1646
01:21:47,120 --> 01:21:50,680
Speaker 1: for being wrong, bray, yell, scream, whatever you need to do.

1647
01:21:51,160 --> 01:21:53,960
Speaker 1: I give cash prize to the best caller of the

1648
01:21:54,640 --> 01:21:57,519
Speaker 1: week every week Big Bets on Campus Live show ten

1649
01:21:57,600 --> 01:22:02,120
Speaker 1: thirty am Eastern, also presented by Bettend. Yeah, this was fun.

1650
01:22:02,400 --> 01:22:05,400
Speaker 1: Let's keep it rolling. We'll catch all Monday morning on

1651
01:22:05,439 --> 01:22:08,080
Speaker 1: the recap and on Twitter all weekend Live show tenth

1652
01:22:08,080 --> 01:22:11,000
Speaker 1: thirdy am easton Saturday. Catch y'all later. Cheers.

1653
01:22:11,680 --> 01:22:12,160
Speaker 2: He's out.