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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Fast Politics. I'm Molly Johnfast, and

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Speaker 1: we have such a great show for you today. Later

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Speaker 1: in the show, we'll talk to Semaphore's Dave Weigel about

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Speaker 1: the trends he's seeing in the midterms. But first, we

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Speaker 1: have the author of How the Right Lost Its Mind.

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Speaker 1: To the contrary, Charlie Sykes is here with us to

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Speaker 1: talk about Donald Trump's very low approval rating. Welcome, welcome,

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Speaker 1: Charlie Sykes.

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Speaker 2: Hey, it is good to be back.

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Speaker 1: I just want to get $ 1, 000 gas, fill up my

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Speaker 1: car with very expensive gas and buy some super expensive

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Speaker 1: eggs and buy things that used to, you know, the

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Speaker 1: $ 4 package of garbage bags, which now costs, you know, whatever,

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Speaker 1: $ 8 because of tariffs.

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Speaker 2: And shockingly, selling out the country in Ukraine to Vladimir

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Speaker 2: Putin for a mess of pottage and diesel. It didn't

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Speaker 2: move the needle that much, did it? So here you

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Speaker 2: have 3.6% inflation rate right before the election.

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Speaker 1: It is.

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Speaker 2: Promises made, promises kept.

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Speaker 1: Promises made.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Well, promises made to fly. I mean, the Putin stuff,

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Speaker 1: like we're going to just buy oil and gas from Putin.

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Speaker 1: It's like the whole world has worked really hard with

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Speaker 1: the exception of the Houthis and the Chinese to not

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Speaker 1: buy oil and gas from Putin. And Donald Trump is like,

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Speaker 1: now we buy oil and gas from Putin.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, there's a little bit of flop sweat

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Speaker 2: desperation jumping off that, right? That he knows he's got

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Speaker 2: a problem with it. So, by the way, can we

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Speaker 2: connect the dots with the Kimberly Guilfoyle story? Because in effect,

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Speaker 2: this was.

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Speaker 1: We've been talking for two minutes, so let's talk about it. Listen,

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Speaker 1: I come from the same pundit knee. Like, it's just

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Speaker 1: a story that the Daily Mail loves it and so

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Speaker 1: do we.

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Speaker 3: Of course we do.

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Speaker 2: Even the Wall Street Journal loves it. So you remember

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Speaker 2: the honey please text message to the Trump donor, pay

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Speaker 2: off my $ 100, 000 Amex bill. Eric Dieters. I heard somebody say,

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Speaker 2: how did Kimberly Guilfoyle think she was going to get

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Speaker 2: away with this? To which I think the answer is, wait,

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Speaker 2: why would she not think she's going to get away

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Speaker 2: with this? Because in effect, isn't that what Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: just did? Didn't he just write a honey-pleased Vladimir Putin?

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Speaker 2: Can you bail me out on the diesel thing? Can

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Speaker 2: you release 300,000 tons of diesel? Which, by the way,

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Speaker 2: I think comes to about Three quarters of what we

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Speaker 2: use as a country in one day.

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Speaker 1: I also think, like, there's so much corruption happening in

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Speaker 1: this administration. Like, we have Don and Eric both doing

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Speaker 1: a lot of companies. They're involved in Calshi. They're involved

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Speaker 1: in Polymarket. They're involved in all sorts of self-dealing. We

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Speaker 1: have the people negotiating peace in the Middle East, right?

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Speaker 1: Jared Kushner. Yeah. also taking money from those very same countries.

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Speaker 2: All in broad daylight. So again, here's Kimberly Guilfoyle thinking,

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Speaker 2: I'm basically, you know, a made manga woman, right? I

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Speaker 2: was almost a, you know, Trump in full before Don Jr.

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Speaker 2: dumped me. And so, you know, her behavior is completely

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Speaker 2: consistent with that world, that ethos, etc. I mean, keep

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Speaker 2: in mind that She was dumped by a guy who

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Speaker 2: then got married to his new girlfriend at a wedding

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Speaker 2: paid for by a Russian oligarch. And that's like a

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Speaker 2: story that just sort of passed. And, you know, I

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Speaker 2: just kind of like forgot that every given day, you know,

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Speaker 2: Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are selling out American interest

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Speaker 2: for some Saudi money or some Russian money. And it's like,

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Speaker 2: I'm not saying, you know, poor, you know, Kimberly, but,

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Speaker 2: you know, people are going crazy. Well, it was pretty

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Speaker 2: outrageous that she was trying to shake people down for

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Speaker 2: business deals. And where did she get that idea?

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Speaker 1: It is really interesting. I'm really glad you brought that

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Speaker 1: up because it's this idea that that a lot of

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Speaker 1: these women have tried to do the stuff the men

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Speaker 1: do and they get in trouble because look at like it.

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Speaker 1: Kristi Noem.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Right.

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Speaker 1: Is she not just doing the Kash Patel program?

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: Sporting events, dating, you know, a lot of, you know,

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Speaker 1: snorkeling around monuments.

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Speaker 2: I've forgotten about that one. Right. I mean, like.

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Speaker 1: Aren't these basically the same thing, but Christie, Bondi, also incompetence? Like,

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Speaker 1: is she so different than Whiskey Pete? And then we have,

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Speaker 1: you know, Laurie Chavez de Reimer running the agency badly.

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Speaker 1: But is that so different than anyone else?

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Speaker 2: Well, there does seem to be a pattern here. You know,

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Speaker 2: who has actually been fired from this administration? I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's Pam Bondi, Pam Bondi, Tulsi Gabbard, Christie Noem, the

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Speaker 2: secretary of labor. Yeah. You know, Tom Holman still has

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Speaker 2: his job. Whiskey Pete still has a job. Cash Patel

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Speaker 2: still has his job. Jared Kushner is still out there.

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Speaker 2: Howard Lutnick still has a job, which is which is

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Speaker 2: kind of amazing. So I do think that there there

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Speaker 2: is a pattern there. At one point, they all came

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Speaker 2: from Trump's central casting. And for some reason and who

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Speaker 2: knows what it could possibly be, they, you know, one

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Speaker 2: after another fell out of favor. But but yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: it's You know, Kimberly Guilfoyle thought that she could stand

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Speaker 2: in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, but

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Speaker 2: her name is not Trump and she's not a guy.

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Speaker 3: So, you know.

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Speaker 1: And my hottest take here is that Donald Trump is

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Speaker 1: used to dismissing women, wives, girlfriends, and he's used to it.

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Speaker 1: Whereas with men, they have a little bit more gravitas

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Speaker 1: and he's less likely to fire them. It could be

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Speaker 1: some kind of innate sexism with the way he looks

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Speaker 1: at women.

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Speaker 2: So I got to throw a red flag at your

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Speaker 2: use of the word gravitas to describe anyone in the

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Speaker 2: Trump administration. So, I mean, clearly it's like, look, Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: you know, does have, Donald Trump's attitude toward women is

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Speaker 2: not breaking news here. No. And I think that's on display.

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Speaker 2: But I also think that what we've seen, though, is

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Speaker 2: this whole obsession he has with central casting and how

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Speaker 2: that's really coming back to bite him. Pete Hegseth. has

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Speaker 2: no qualifications whatsoever to be the Secretary of Defense, but

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Speaker 2: he looks good, right? You know, why did we have

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Speaker 2: Pam Bondi? Why did we have Tulsi Gabbard? Why did

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Speaker 2: we have Kristi Noem, at least for a while? Or

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Speaker 2: FK Jr. Right, central casting.

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Speaker 1: He's at a family wedding, so he's been out of

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Speaker 1: the mainstream.

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Speaker 2: Well, this is also how you get Katie Zacharias, you know,

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Speaker 2: as your press secretary. And everybody's going, what the heck?

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Speaker 2: I mean... There's a lack of subtlety here, but it's

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Speaker 2: worth it's worth pointing out how Trump's obsessions in some way,

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Speaker 2: you know, not only how they play out, but also

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Speaker 2: they blow up in his face. Right. I mean.

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Speaker 1: To be so incompetent that everyone, even Trump, I mean,

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Speaker 1: it was a 14-minute press briefing, and about four minutes later,

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Speaker 1: you had everyone in the admin leaking, she's not going

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Speaker 1: to make it, she's a Scaramucci.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, when you bring back Scaramucci into the conversation, it

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Speaker 2: was like within an hour, people are saying, is she

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Speaker 2: going to last as long as Scaramucci? My favorite part

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Speaker 2: of this, I mean, this is like almost, you know,

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Speaker 2: you know, beyond MAGA self-parody. When they're asking her about

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Speaker 2: this law license of yours, you don't appear to be

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Speaker 2: a member of the Bar Association in any country. Have

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Speaker 2: you ever passed the Bar Association? And as God is

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Speaker 2: my witness, her explanation is that she got her license

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Speaker 2: in China. She passed the Bar Association in China.

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Speaker 3: I mean.

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Speaker 2: And the scriptwriters would not let that pass. It's too ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: And the Washington Post, actually, God love them, had a

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Speaker 1: bunch of Chinese experts in Chinese law on, write in

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Speaker 1: a reported piece. And they were talking about how You

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Speaker 1: can't take the American bar in China. You can't practice

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Speaker 1: Chinese law if you're American.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 1: You have to be from China. You have to be

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Speaker 1: a Chinese citizen. So, in fact, she did not.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, it's also I mean, it's just like on

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Speaker 2: the surface, you go, no, no, seriously. And and then,

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Speaker 2: of course, it gets even better because it turns out

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Speaker 2: her husband has been doing business with all the countries

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Speaker 2: in the world. North Korea. That he's been siphoning money

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Speaker 2: to North. Where do they find these people? This is

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Speaker 2: what's so fascinating. This that Donald Trump has managed to

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Speaker 2: assemble beneath his wings, this wretched hive of villainy from

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Speaker 2: all corners of the country. They all look a certain way.

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Speaker 2: But it's like, boy, we are in a, what's the

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Speaker 2: opposite of brave new world? A gross new world.

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Speaker 1: And I think the best part here is that he

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Speaker 1: didn't hide his association with North Korea, which would be

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Speaker 1: like what you would do if you were a normal person,

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Speaker 1: because North Korea is a murderous dictator. He has a

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Speaker 1: good last name. Let's not fault him for that. But

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Speaker 1: he is a bad, bad, bad dude who I happen

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Speaker 1: to share a last name with. But let's just say, right,

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Speaker 1: like he murders people. He's really scary. You know, nobody

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Speaker 1: does business with North Korea. It's like even worse than

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Speaker 1: doing business with Russia. And he advertises it on his website.

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Speaker 1: It was not like a hidden fact, right?

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Speaker 2: No. And so all of this is happening right before

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Speaker 2: the midterms. I don't know. I'm assuming that That the

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Speaker 2: reason that they fired Kimberly was, I mean, number one,

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Speaker 2: she said it on audio tape and she put it

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Speaker 2: in writing and she's a woman and all that. She

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Speaker 2: papered it. And by the way, the most delicious part

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Speaker 2: of that is when she's telling the guy, you know,

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Speaker 2: stop putting it in writing. which she then puts in writing.

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Speaker 1: And then it leaks immediately.

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Speaker 2: So then they fire her in order to, you know,

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Speaker 2: because they're concerned about the impression that this administration is

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Speaker 2: corrupt right before the election and that the whole Kimberly

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Speaker 2: story amplifies the Trump corruption. I mean, but good Lord,

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Speaker 2: given all the other corruption, does anyone think that that

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Speaker 2: actually someone's going to go, you know, I was thinking

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Speaker 2: of voting, you know, against the Trump corruption, but now

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Speaker 2: they got rid of Kimberly. Well, I am relieved now.

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Speaker 3: I mean, and.

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Speaker 1: Kimberly also, a few of the most delicious details in

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Speaker 1: this story. Her stylist, Fancy James. Fancy is his first name.

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Speaker 1: I did look him up. He is exactly what you

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Speaker 1: would think of a stylist who serves Kimberly Guilfoyle. And

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Speaker 1: then also, she was on the cover of Vogue Greece.

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Speaker 2: Oh, of course she was.

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Speaker 1: And she did a lot of partying while she was

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Speaker 1: out in Greece. And she said it was because that

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Speaker 1: was how she ambassadored.

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Speaker 2: Well, this is how she ambassadored. I mean, some of

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Speaker 2: the anecdotes about, you know, that she, you know, demotes

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Speaker 2: the head of her security detail, you know, who's an

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Speaker 2: older guy. She calls him up at 4 a.m. She

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Speaker 2: has a demand. What's her what's her demand? Well, she's

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Speaker 2: apparently been drinking all night. She's drinking at 4 a.m.

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Speaker 2: She wants more ice. and is so entitled that she

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Speaker 2: figures her senior security aid should get up and get

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Speaker 2: her ice at 4 a.m. This didn't happen. So apparently

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Speaker 2: he's been, you know, you know, demoted to one of

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Speaker 2: the follow cars. But that's one of those just, you know,

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Speaker 2: this is one of the reasons why I think kind

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Speaker 2: of the culture about the rich and the famous is changing.

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Speaker 2: I'll get your impression of this. There was, you know,

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Speaker 2: maybe a mood at one point that the rich, we

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Speaker 2: could be aspirational. You know, I could be rich at

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Speaker 2: some point. It's like they are all in a competition

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Speaker 2: to turn themselves into Bond villains, like the worst Cruella

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Speaker 2: de Vil caricatures you can possibly imagine. Do you remember

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Speaker 2: Leona Helmsley? It's like an administration staffed with younger Leona

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Speaker 2: Helmsley about the little people, the abuse. And so it's

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Speaker 2: seeing the quintessence of this new MAGA Mar-a-Lago culture.

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Speaker 1: I would say I think that's right, but I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: just limit it to Mar-a-Lago culture. I would say Silicon Valley,

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Speaker 1: when they started embracing Trumpism, they gave up on trying

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Speaker 1: to be Rockefellers. They decided, and I'm talking about the Rockefeller, no, no,

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Speaker 1: Vanderbilt's right. Vanderbilt's is sort of the, you know, being,

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Speaker 1: you know, no, no, no, please, no, please, a blask,

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Speaker 1: you know, right.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: You know, libraries, ballets, symphonies, hospitals, all of that. You know,

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Speaker 2: and this new group is like, yeah, fuck that. I

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Speaker 2: just want the biggest super yacht in the world. And

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Speaker 2: right now, you.

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Speaker 1: Know, Elon said, I've done so much for the for

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Speaker 1: the climate. Now I can just donate to Republicans and

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Speaker 1: fly on my private jet.

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Speaker 2: So let's talk about Elon Musk, because this is one

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Speaker 2: of the stories of the of the midterms is that apparently,

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Speaker 2: you know, he's he's made up with the Don. And

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Speaker 2: he's dumping something around a half a billion dollars into

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Speaker 2: these races to prop up the the Republicans. I mean,

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Speaker 2: so the world's richest man propping up the world's most

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Speaker 2: corrupt administration. And, you know, we'll see whether it works. But,

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Speaker 2: you know, and I'm sorry that I've said this over

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Speaker 2: and over again, but Democrats need to wrap Elon Musk

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Speaker 2: around the neck of every single Republican in the in

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Speaker 2: the country. Because every single Republican is benefiting from Elon Musk.

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Speaker 2: But why are they not being asked about Elon Musk's

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Speaker 2: latest racist, anti-Semitic tweet? Why are they not being asked

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Speaker 2: about Elon Musk's latest betrayal of Ukraine, about this level

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Speaker 2: of his corruption? Because I'm not sure that right now

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Speaker 2: that Elon Musk has the, you know, he no longer

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Speaker 2: has the riz, right? I mean, people are looking at

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Speaker 2: him and going, you're like weird, you're scary, and you're dangerous.

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Speaker 2: And could I just mention that if Elon Musk, and

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Speaker 2: Adam Kinzinger said this on my podcast yesterday, And this

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Speaker 2: is not hyperbole. If Elon Musk next time around wants

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Speaker 2: to dump $ 100 billion into a campaign, he can do

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Speaker 2: it and nobody can stop him. And that would be

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Speaker 2: pocket shoes. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And I think I think it's a really good point.

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Speaker 1: And I would add, like, Elon Musk learned a lesson

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Speaker 1: from the Wisconsin judicial election, which we talked about. Well,

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Speaker 1: he learned that he's not popular. And so he's given

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Speaker 1: all this money in super PACs in the hope of a.

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Speaker 1: And remember, when he did that Wisconsin judicial, he was

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Speaker 1: out there with a cheese hat dancing around.

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Speaker 2: And handing out checks.

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Speaker 1: Right. And he's no longer wearing a cheese hat because

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Speaker 1: he knows that he is a drag on the ticket.

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Speaker 1: So he's just giving the money and pretending not to

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Speaker 1: be involved and saying things like, I'm going to be

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Speaker 1: much less involved in politics.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, that's that's, you know, a lot of Molly,

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Speaker 2: a lot of people do not know that there is

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Speaker 2: a B in bullshit. But but that is that is

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Speaker 2: that is bullshit. No, really, you just, you know, you

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Speaker 2: take the B and again, I'm sorry.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's a really good point. But I

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Speaker 1: do think when we look at Elon Musk, like, I

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Speaker 1: think the Republicans should have, I mean, we did see

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Speaker 1: Troy Jackson ask Susan Collins about Elon Musk. And then

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Speaker 1: we saw Mike Collins ask John Ossoff about Reid Hoffman

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Speaker 1: and the Epstein files. That did not go so well.

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Speaker 2: Oh, I'm really glad you brought that up because I

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Speaker 2: was just watching the video of that. That is a

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Speaker 2: classic moment. And you look, Mike Collins is a shitty candidate.

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Speaker 2: I mean, what's happening in Georgia is a reminder of

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Speaker 2: the candidate quality matter.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: John, I don't know if you agree, but I mean,

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Speaker 2: John Ossoff is the breakout star of the 2026 midterms.

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Speaker 2: And some aid to Mike Collins and bring up some

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Speaker 2: tangential Epstein thing. And Ossoff, turns that around on him

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Speaker 2: and drops upon him with a great high point. I

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Speaker 2: am surprised that anybody told you that you should bring

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Speaker 2: that up considering that you, as a congressman, actually voted

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Speaker 2: to cover up The Epstein files. And it was just

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Speaker 2: all downhill from there. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's funny because I would love to talk

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Speaker 1: to you for a minute about bad candidates, because I

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Speaker 1: do think Republicans have some really, really bad candidates like Paxton.

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Speaker 1: There's like a third Paxton tape today, which is him

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Speaker 1: saying Abbott's not doing that well.

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Speaker 2: Well, we're at the stage of the campaign. This is

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Speaker 2: kind of meta here. The stage of the campaign where

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Speaker 2: everybody is finding somebody else to blame, you know, When

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Speaker 2: you get the consultants three weeks before an election picking

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Speaker 2: up the phone and saying, you know, by the way,

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Speaker 2: it wasn't me. They wouldn't listen to me. This is

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Speaker 2: why we're going down. With Ken Paxton talking about what,

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Speaker 2: you know, lousy shape Greg Abbott is in. And the

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Speaker 2: fact that I believe this is the sixth audio tape

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Speaker 2: that has been leaked. Now, you have to ask yourself,

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Speaker 2: why are these audio tapes being leaked? Who is leaking them?

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Speaker 2: And is it part of this? Everybody's going for the exits.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to be blamed. For what is about

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Speaker 2: to happen. And this often happens near the end of

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Speaker 2: a campaign where things are not going your way. And so,

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Speaker 2: you know, people say, what do you think is going

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Speaker 2: to happen? I honestly don't know. But watch the body language.

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Speaker 2: Watch the way these guys are behaving. This is not

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Speaker 2: what you get out of a winning campaign winning. winning

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Speaker 2: the election.

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Speaker 1: Certainly not. And then we have the Roger Marshall, like

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Speaker 1: because we're because we're on the topic of bad Republican candidates.

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Speaker 1: Roger Marshall in Kansas run against Adam, Adam Hamilton. Hamilton

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Speaker 1: is a pastor. Now, again, it's Kansas. It's 93 years

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Speaker 1: since they elected a Democrat. But what I think is

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Speaker 1: interesting here, Roger Marshall, he's really a red state guy

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Speaker 1: who's never had to play on a national stage.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: And, you know, and this is the thing that surprises

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Speaker 2: me once in a while. You would think that if

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Speaker 2: somebody's been a United States senator for a while, they

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Speaker 2: would be ready for prime time.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: But a lot of these guys are not ready for

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Speaker 2: prime time. They've never really been tested. They haven't had

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Speaker 2: to campaign. They haven't been faced with the kinds of

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Speaker 2: scrutiny and questions that they have. And I will say

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Speaker 2: that Kansas has become among the most interesting stories. And

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Speaker 2: I remember it was a couple of months ago I

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Speaker 2: was talking to a political scientist named Brian Rosenwald. And

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Speaker 2: he said, look, don't think that I'm crazy. Don't kick

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Speaker 2: me off here. But I think people ought to look

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Speaker 2: at Kansas. And he was looking at the data, how

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Speaker 2: Kansas has been moving progressively from red to blue. They

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Speaker 2: have elected a Democratic governor. And because of, again, the

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Speaker 2: candidate quality, this is a legitimate conversation as opposed to

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Speaker 2: the biennial hopium of like, are we going to flip

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Speaker 2: Alabama and Mississippi? Which, by the way, is not also

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Speaker 2: inconceivable this year.

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Speaker 3: I do worry.

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Speaker 2: You tell me, are we are Democrats gotten out of

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Speaker 2: hand with the expectation game? I mean, is this one

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Speaker 2: of those things like, you know, yes, we're going to

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Speaker 2: be able to beat Mitch McConnell in Kentucky and then. Right.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: I mean, what do you think?

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Speaker 1: Well, look, here's the only reason why I think they

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Speaker 1: may not have is just the price of diesel. Like

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Speaker 1: if you are a person and also the tariffs, right?

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Speaker 1: If you're a farmer or if you live near a

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Speaker 1: farm or if you shop at a farm stand, you

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Speaker 1: are saying to yourself, like, why is this more expensive?

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Speaker 1: And if you're a soybean farmer or you have a

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Speaker 1: soybean farm and you're getting screwed by the tariffs, like,

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Speaker 1: and you're getting payouts and you don't want payouts and

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Speaker 1: you still can't afford gas, like... These are real things.

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Speaker 1: I mean, when I interviewed Rob Sand, he talked about

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Speaker 1: like cancer. that Iowa has this polluted groundwater because of

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Speaker 1: of because of the pesticides. And like that's a real thing.

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Speaker 1: And like we have an administration that's like global warming

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Speaker 1: isn't real. And we are going to make sure that

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Speaker 1: you can buy Roundup now, which was like the one

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Speaker 1: good thing RFK Jr.

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Speaker 2: did. Right.

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Speaker 1: So, I mean, I do think that that is, you know,

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Speaker 1: to have an administration that runs so contrary to everything

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Speaker 1: just so just because like they're going to make coal

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Speaker 1: great again. I mean, I think that's pretty bad.

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Speaker 2: Well, and also I think, you know, we we have

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Speaker 2: we expected Trump fatigue to, you know, kick in a

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Speaker 2: lot earlier.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: You know, nothing can last forever. And I'm getting the

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Speaker 2: sense that a lot of the stuff that Trump used

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Speaker 2: to think, you know, we used to land for Trump.

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Speaker 2: is now either being ignored, people shrug.

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Speaker 3: At, or they roll their eyes.

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Speaker 2: You know, the fact that Donald Trump is out there

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Speaker 2: saying that, you know, I'm fighting socialism, but by the way,

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Speaker 2: if you vote for Republicans, I will give you $ 5, 000

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Speaker 2: in cash if Republicans hold. I have yet to meet

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Speaker 2: anyone who expects to get that $ 5, 000. And so people are,

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Speaker 2: I mean, there is that moment, like the guy is

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Speaker 2: completely full of shit all the time. And he's still

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Speaker 2: literally out during these campaign rallies saying, things like promises made,

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Speaker 2: promises kept. At the moment when gas prices, diesel prices,

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Speaker 2: the inflation rate is exploded, we are in an endless

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Speaker 2: war in Iran that is not remotely closer to being settled.

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Speaker 2: What is his October surprise? This shocking cave-in to Vladimir Putin,

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Speaker 2: bailing him out so he can have more drones that

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Speaker 2: will kill more civilians. None of this thing seems to

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Speaker 2: be working. Now, on the other hand, maybe Elon Musk,

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Speaker 2: has some magic get-out-the-vote formula, some way to get those

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Speaker 2: low-propensity voters to come out and prove all the pollsters wrong, maybe.

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Speaker 2: But I don't know. When I talk to people in politics,

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Speaker 2: what's coming back is that this feels like an election

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Speaker 2: like 2006 or 2010, where just the momentum, the wave

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Speaker 2: is so huge, it is so big that it sort

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Speaker 2: of wipes out all of those other factors.

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Speaker 1: Or 1994.

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Speaker 2: Yes.

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Speaker 3: Who knows?

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Speaker 1: Charlie Sykes. Thank you, thank you.

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Speaker 2: Anytime, anytime.

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Speaker 4: Bolly, it's time for the headlines. It's kind of crazy,

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Speaker 4: you know, each day when I write this, I scan

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Speaker 4: the headlines, so it's been years of doing this, and

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Speaker 4: I feel like today's one of those days where there's

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Speaker 4: so many headlines of exclamation points about the economy that

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Speaker 4: it's kind of, unprecedented may not be the word, but

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Speaker 4: Pretty alarming.

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Speaker 1: The net net here is that inflation is hot. It

431
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 1: came in hot. And and there are two reasons for that.

432
00:22:39,820 --> 00:22:42,590
Speaker 1: One is because the war in Iran has raised the

433
00:22:42,609 --> 00:22:46,070
Speaker 1: price of diesel and gas, something that everyone would knew

434
00:22:46,109 --> 00:22:49,870
Speaker 1: would happen. I mean, this is like we have lived

435
00:22:49,910 --> 00:22:53,500
Speaker 1: through wars in the Middle East before. And every time,

436
00:22:53,820 --> 00:22:57,360
Speaker 1: they make oil and gas more expensive. And this time,

437
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,290
Speaker 1: they made oil and gas more expensive. But there's another

438
00:23:00,390 --> 00:23:03,369
Speaker 1: ripple to this, and that is the tariffs. The tariffs

439
00:23:03,450 --> 00:23:07,610
Speaker 1: are wildly inflationary. They're a tax on the consumer. And

440
00:23:07,710 --> 00:23:10,390
Speaker 1: more than that, they're a tax on the people who

441
00:23:10,450 --> 00:23:14,500
Speaker 1: can pay the tax the least, right? Because it's really

442
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:18,260
Speaker 1: a sales tax on people buying goods and services. And

443
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:25,470
Speaker 1: so it's so... It's so self-defeating. And we're seeing here

444
00:23:25,550 --> 00:23:28,090
Speaker 1: year over year a change in the consumer price index.

445
00:23:28,130 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 1: And we're seeing like a 3.7 percent overall. rise in

446
00:23:35,530 --> 00:23:38,570
Speaker 1: the cost of things. And if you take out food

447
00:23:38,609 --> 00:23:41,530
Speaker 1: and energy, in which you are only left with a

448
00:23:41,630 --> 00:23:44,879
Speaker 1: two and a half percent, which is still humongous, and

449
00:23:44,910 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 1: that is the tariffs. So look, these are, this is inflation.

450
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:57,810
Speaker 1: It is caused by Donald Trump's terrible, terrible, Terrible governing ideas. And,

451
00:23:58,250 --> 00:24:01,100
Speaker 1: you know, this is I mean, what's so interesting about

452
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:05,419
Speaker 1: this moment is, you know, Democrats may win back both houses.

453
00:24:05,460 --> 00:24:08,199
Speaker 1: They may win back the Senate and the House. And

454
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:12,260
Speaker 1: if they do. They're going to be asked to try

455
00:24:12,380 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 1: and do whatever they can to reverse inflation. It's very

456
00:24:15,540 --> 00:24:17,940
Speaker 1: hard to reverse inflation. But in a case like this,

457
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:20,619
Speaker 1: when what you really need to do is end the

458
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:24,910
Speaker 1: war and end the tariffs, you actually have a pretty...

459
00:24:24,609 --> 00:24:26,570
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I'm not sure they're going to be

460
00:24:26,609 --> 00:24:28,950
Speaker 1: able to do it, though the Supreme Court did rule

461
00:24:28,990 --> 00:24:32,110
Speaker 1: the tariffs as... unconstitutional. So you would think there would

462
00:24:32,150 --> 00:24:35,650
Speaker 1: be an avenue there. But if they could just get

463
00:24:35,710 --> 00:24:40,159
Speaker 1: the tariffs off and end the war, prices will go down.

464
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: Gas prices will go down if you reopen the straits.

465
00:24:44,980 --> 00:24:47,700
Speaker 1: Price of goods will go down if you take off

466
00:24:47,740 --> 00:24:50,659
Speaker 1: the tariffs. So there is, in a certain way, a

467
00:24:50,859 --> 00:24:54,609
Speaker 1: pretty easy answer for this inflation. And it is 100

468
00:24:54,609 --> 00:24:56,010
Speaker 1: percent caused by Donald Trump.

469
00:24:56,109 --> 00:24:58,959
Speaker 4: And I don't know what you're talking about. He says

470
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 4: he's going to get the oil from Greenland, even though

471
00:25:00,619 --> 00:25:01,580
Speaker 4: they say that's a lie.

472
00:25:02,420 --> 00:25:04,950
Speaker 1: Well, the point I mean, he just lies about it.

473
00:25:05,010 --> 00:25:09,250
Speaker 1: But but it's very easy to see how how we

474
00:25:09,270 --> 00:25:12,290
Speaker 1: got here and how we've stayed here and why this

475
00:25:12,369 --> 00:25:16,190
Speaker 1: is bad for the American consumer and why it's inflationary

476
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:21,260
Speaker 1: and why it is really just failed governance on the

477
00:25:21,340 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 1: part of Donald Trump.

478
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:23,580
Speaker 2: Yeah.

479
00:25:23,980 --> 00:25:27,169
Speaker 4: So speaking of Trump. that failed governance. I think that

480
00:25:27,190 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 4: this is one of the most heartening stories I've seen.

481
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,260
Speaker 4: So there's this organization called the Leadership Conference on Civil

482
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 4: and Human Rights, and they did a poll that said

483
00:25:35,580 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 4: four in five voters fear their rights are being taken

484
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,500
Speaker 4: away and they're also determined to vote.

485
00:25:40,140 --> 00:25:43,390
Speaker 1: The reason that they feel that way is because Donald

486
00:25:43,410 --> 00:25:45,750
Speaker 1: Trump keeps saying he's going to take away their right

487
00:25:45,790 --> 00:25:48,570
Speaker 1: to vote. I mean, Like, you've never known anyone to

488
00:25:48,670 --> 00:25:51,430
Speaker 1: threaten that kind of thing more. And I think that

489
00:25:51,540 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 1: it is really scary. Look, we're not having international monitors

490
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,940
Speaker 1: of this election, which is an insane thing to be

491
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,379
Speaker 1: at this moment. And I think people are really anxious

492
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:06,790
Speaker 1: about losing their rights. Donald Trump has lied about our elections.

493
00:26:06,850 --> 00:26:09,670
Speaker 1: He's lied about the safety of your vote. He's made

494
00:26:09,830 --> 00:26:13,590
Speaker 1: everyone anxious. And I think we got here in a

495
00:26:13,650 --> 00:26:17,450
Speaker 1: way that we thought made a lot of sense. Voters

496
00:26:17,630 --> 00:26:24,210
Speaker 1: are very, very worried. And also, they want to participate

497
00:26:24,310 --> 00:26:28,120
Speaker 1: in the midterms. Eighty-four percent say they definitely will vote

498
00:26:28,130 --> 00:26:32,660
Speaker 1: in midterms. November, 14 percent of voters identified voting rights

499
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:36,659
Speaker 1: as a top issue, which is really interesting. And and

500
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:41,940
Speaker 1: I think unusual widespread concern about interference in the midterm election.

501
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,830
Speaker 1: Seventy seven percent say they are concerned with political leaders

502
00:26:45,869 --> 00:26:50,370
Speaker 1: who could pressure election officials to change election outcomes like

503
00:26:51,020 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 1: That is quite a lot of people. Sixty five percent

504
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 1: are concerned the federal government could attempt to stop elections

505
00:26:57,500 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 1: by declaring a state of emergency. And look, that is

506
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:06,620
Speaker 1: that's those are crazy numbers. Voters are describing threats to

507
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:10,910
Speaker 1: the machinery of democracy itself, says our friend Maya Wiley,

508
00:27:10,950 --> 00:27:15,730
Speaker 1: who's the president and CEO of Leadership Conference. You know,

509
00:27:15,770 --> 00:27:19,510
Speaker 1: this is I mean, this is the legacy of Donald Trump.

510
00:27:20,770 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, it is what will be a big part of

511
00:27:23,820 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 4: what he is known for in history, in addition to many, many,

512
00:27:26,420 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 4: many sad things.

513
00:27:27,980 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: Yeah.

514
00:27:29,100 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 4: So, Molly, there's a thing we've discussed this podcast a lot,

515
00:27:32,140 --> 00:27:35,050
Speaker 4: that when Trump threatens a lawsuit, it's bullshit because he

516
00:27:35,070 --> 00:27:39,109
Speaker 4: doesn't want discovery. The BBC is seeing this in real time.

517
00:27:39,310 --> 00:27:41,010
Speaker 4: I think this is super interesting.

518
00:27:41,450 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 1: So. Basically, Donald Trump is flouting the legal process by

519
00:27:45,500 --> 00:27:48,770
Speaker 1: canceling interviews with lawyers. And he had to be dragged

520
00:27:48,810 --> 00:27:51,590
Speaker 1: kicking and screaming to give evidence in his own defamation

521
00:27:52,030 --> 00:27:55,790
Speaker 1: case against the BBC. It's worth realizing, like, Donald Trump

522
00:27:56,109 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 1: is actually suing the BBC for $ 10 billion. And yet

523
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 1: he canceled the interview when he said he'd be available. Like,

524
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:11,180
Speaker 1: this is his case. It's not the BBC's case. Lawyers

525
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: for the BBC say Trump has flouted the legal process.

526
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,120
Speaker 1: They cite previous cases in which the judge ruled that

527
00:28:17,140 --> 00:28:20,490
Speaker 1: it is not the court's role nor the opposing counsel

528
00:28:20,550 --> 00:28:23,670
Speaker 1: to drag a party kicking and screaming through the discovery process.

529
00:28:24,550 --> 00:28:27,190
Speaker 1: Here's the thing. Donald Trump does this. He sues people

530
00:28:27,250 --> 00:28:30,370
Speaker 1: because he wants them to shut up. He doesn't want

531
00:28:30,410 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 1: discovery because discovery will ultimately fail. hurt him, right? Because

532
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,140
Speaker 1: he's going to, people will see emails, they'll see text messages,

533
00:28:38,660 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 1: they'll see what, you know, all the many ways in

534
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:46,780
Speaker 1: which Donald Trump is, you know, is culpable. He began

535
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,510
Speaker 1: his legal battle with the BBC in December after The

536
00:28:50,570 --> 00:28:55,810
Speaker 1: Telegraph revealed that Panorama documentary had edited footage of a

537
00:28:55,870 --> 00:28:59,250
Speaker 1: speech he had made giving the appearance he had incited

538
00:28:59,270 --> 00:29:02,700
Speaker 1: the U.S. Capitol riot in January 2021.

539
00:29:02,700 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 2: That's right.

540
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:08,300
Speaker 1: Again, now, did he incite the Capitol riot? Well, he

541
00:29:08,340 --> 00:29:12,810
Speaker 1: didn't tell them to go home. You'll remember Trump did

542
00:29:12,850 --> 00:29:16,210
Speaker 1: begin a legal battle with the BBC in December after

543
00:29:16,250 --> 00:29:20,390
Speaker 1: The Telegraph revealed that a documentary had edited footage of

544
00:29:20,430 --> 00:29:20,830
Speaker 1: the speech.

545
00:29:21,530 --> 00:29:21,930
Speaker 2: Well, Molly.

546
00:29:22,410 --> 00:29:23,890
Speaker 4: You know, I try to keep these to be the

547
00:29:23,950 --> 00:29:27,580
Speaker 4: most pressing things that are really interesting that are not covered.

548
00:29:27,620 --> 00:29:30,060
Speaker 4: But then sometimes we just need a treat. And I

549
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 4: feel like I needed to throw you a treat after

550
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,610
Speaker 4: we had to read so many tweets about Kelly Clarkson

551
00:29:34,650 --> 00:29:37,970
Speaker 4: and a bird. But Kimberly Guilfoyle apparently has a burn

552
00:29:38,010 --> 00:29:40,890
Speaker 4: book and she's threatening that she's going to go scorched

553
00:29:41,030 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 4: earth and start telling where the bodies are buried. And

554
00:29:43,780 --> 00:29:46,450
Speaker 4: we know she knows where they are because she was

555
00:29:46,580 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 4: right there in the bedroom with Don Jr. for many

556
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:49,260
Speaker 4: a year.

557
00:29:50,190 --> 00:29:53,810
Speaker 1: Okay, so Kimberly Guilfoyle was engaged to Don Jr. They

558
00:29:53,850 --> 00:29:57,070
Speaker 1: broke up in 2024. Donald Trump, I wish we could,

559
00:29:57,130 --> 00:29:59,850
Speaker 1: can we just play the video of Donald Trump being like,

560
00:29:59,990 --> 00:30:02,340
Speaker 1: I didn't know her? How surprised were you to learn

561
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:03,540
Speaker 1: about these allegations?

562
00:30:03,700 --> 00:30:05,620
Speaker 4: No, she wasn't a member of my family.

563
00:30:05,660 --> 00:30:08,700
Speaker 3: She, I guess, dated my son a long time ago.

564
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:10,700
Speaker 1: She dated my son a long time ago. It was

565
00:30:10,740 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: like 18 months ago, sir. I am not one to

566
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 1: defend Kimberly Guilfoyle. But let me just say, the leaking

567
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 1: that has gone on here to The Wall Street Journal

568
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 1: and to The Daily Mail, which has covered the Kimberly

569
00:30:27,740 --> 00:30:33,980
Speaker 1: Guilfoyle fiasco breathlessly and in a way that only they can.

570
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,140
Speaker 3: I mean, Molly, think about it.

571
00:30:36,350 --> 00:30:38,210
Speaker 4: She was one of our royals. They know how to

572
00:30:38,250 --> 00:30:38,950
Speaker 4: cover royals.

573
00:30:39,510 --> 00:30:44,060
Speaker 1: Yeah, she was. I mean, so basically... The family sent

574
00:30:44,180 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 1: Kimberly to Greece to be an ambassador. Why did they

575
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 1: send her to Greece? Who is to say? But it

576
00:30:51,420 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 1: certainly is very far away.

577
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 4: Grifter in a strange land?

578
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 1: Kimberly now was forced to resign as U.S. ambassador after

579
00:30:58,940 --> 00:31:05,300
Speaker 1: a sea of text messages, this Eric Dieter story. where

580
00:31:05,340 --> 00:31:07,780
Speaker 1: she was asking him to pay her American Express card

581
00:31:07,820 --> 00:31:11,969
Speaker 1: to the tune of $ 100, 000. Eric, very incensed. He did

582
00:31:12,010 --> 00:31:14,410
Speaker 1: not get the quo for his quid, even though he

583
00:31:14,490 --> 00:31:19,490
Speaker 1: did not pay that particular American Express bill. Went on

584
00:31:19,530 --> 00:31:23,110
Speaker 1: a bunch of networks, talked, did a, as we call

585
00:31:23,230 --> 00:31:29,770
Speaker 1: a Sam Nunberg through the media interview. And ultimately, Kimberly

586
00:31:29,790 --> 00:31:32,770
Speaker 1: was fired, like many of the other women in Trump

587
00:31:32,790 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 1: world who were fired. Tulsi, Bondi, Christie, a lot of

588
00:31:39,900 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 1: those women got the ax in big public ways, whereas

589
00:31:43,940 --> 00:31:46,980
Speaker 1: men who mess up get moved around. Women who mess

590
00:31:47,060 --> 00:31:51,210
Speaker 1: up get the big public attention. divorce like Donald Trump

591
00:31:51,230 --> 00:31:54,260
Speaker 1: does to a wife. Anyway, the point here is one

592
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:58,740
Speaker 1: of the reasons why Guilfoyle was given Greece, we can

593
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:06,630
Speaker 1: surmise maybe because of her interesting and emotional nature, which

594
00:32:06,790 --> 00:32:09,770
Speaker 1: might make the family a bit worried now that she's

595
00:32:09,850 --> 00:32:16,510
Speaker 1: saying she has a burn book. with all, quote, all

596
00:32:16,570 --> 00:32:20,190
Speaker 1: kinds of dirt on the president and his family. According

597
00:32:20,210 --> 00:32:23,250
Speaker 1: to the publication, the president's closest advisors were trying to

598
00:32:23,390 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 1: keep her at her post in Greece, worried about the

599
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 1: secrets she knows. What kind of secrets does she know?

600
00:32:31,940 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 1: Now that Guilfoyle has been asked to resign, the mail

601
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,940
Speaker 1: source say that she plans to burn bridges with the

602
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 1: Trumps and release content of the diary. Guilfoyle and Trump Jr.

603
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:51,180
Speaker 1: were together from 2018 to 2024. She was president most,

604
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:54,570
Speaker 1: if not all, of the Trump family's major events. You'll

605
00:32:54,590 --> 00:32:58,550
Speaker 1: remember there is a video of her dancing right before

606
00:32:58,610 --> 00:32:59,790
Speaker 1: the insurrection.

607
00:32:59,810 --> 00:33:02,770
Speaker 4: The best is always yet to come with her.

608
00:33:02,790 --> 00:33:07,470
Speaker 1: Yeah, the best is yet to, and it may be

609
00:33:07,590 --> 00:33:10,150
Speaker 1: that she knows a lot of stuff. We shall see.

610
00:33:11,460 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 4: What could she know, Molly? All of a sudden, I

611
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,740
Speaker 4: have a sniffle. I don't know what it could be.

612
00:33:17,940 --> 00:33:22,580
Speaker 1: Dave Weigel is a reporter at Semaphore. Welcome, welcome, Dave.

613
00:33:22,870 --> 00:33:24,270
Speaker 3: Good to be here. Thanks for having me again.

614
00:33:24,570 --> 00:33:28,350
Speaker 1: So I want you to talk about, this is such

615
00:33:28,390 --> 00:33:30,510
Speaker 1: a cool and important way to look at it. So

616
00:33:30,630 --> 00:33:33,890
Speaker 1: let's talk about the five takes that will define the

617
00:33:33,890 --> 00:33:37,060
Speaker 1: 2020 26 midterms.

618
00:33:37,460 --> 00:33:39,700
Speaker 3: Well, there are more than five, but people can only,

619
00:33:40,580 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 3: people only click on lists if they think they can

620
00:33:43,180 --> 00:33:46,570
Speaker 3: finish them while they're waiting for the bus or in

621
00:33:46,590 --> 00:33:48,610
Speaker 3: the bathroom or whatever. What I was trying to do there,

622
00:33:48,940 --> 00:33:51,190
Speaker 3: I'm not a big listicle guy, what I was trying

623
00:33:51,210 --> 00:33:55,850
Speaker 3: to do was convey the conversation happening, not among reporters

624
00:33:55,910 --> 00:33:59,910
Speaker 3: per se, but among political operatives about what to do

625
00:34:00,050 --> 00:34:03,130
Speaker 3: after the election because there would be an election, everyone's

626
00:34:03,250 --> 00:34:05,780
Speaker 3: heard of that, and then There will be a focus

627
00:34:05,860 --> 00:34:09,180
Speaker 3: on who won, who were the standout candidates, what were

628
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,919
Speaker 3: the margins. And there's already jockeying going on. This really

629
00:34:11,940 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 3: started me realizing how much, not realizing it's been three months,

630
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,740
Speaker 3: how much the left is invested in Abdul-Sayed in Michigan.

631
00:34:19,180 --> 00:34:22,540
Speaker 3: Him winning by any margin will be taken. The AOC

632
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:25,180
Speaker 3: said this in New York as proof that anybody could

633
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,870
Speaker 3: win anywhere, i.e. that her politics could win anywhere. Whether

634
00:34:27,890 --> 00:34:29,830
Speaker 3: or not she runs for president, just the argument will be,

635
00:34:30,290 --> 00:34:32,669
Speaker 3: much like it was when Bernie won Michigan in the primary, hey,

636
00:34:32,710 --> 00:34:36,450
Speaker 3: Democrats should all adopt this playbook. that's one of them.

637
00:34:36,510 --> 00:34:39,450
Speaker 3: I think there's going to be a spin that gerrymandering

638
00:34:39,469 --> 00:34:46,630
Speaker 3: didn't matter because even Republicans, talking to reporters anonymously but candidly,

639
00:34:46,690 --> 00:34:48,790
Speaker 3: still not sure how that works, but Republicans who are

640
00:34:49,370 --> 00:34:52,710
Speaker 3: feeling bad about the election think they'll lose. And that

641
00:34:52,730 --> 00:34:55,989
Speaker 3: will lead to discussion of whether gerrymandering is that big

642
00:34:56,030 --> 00:35:00,350
Speaker 3: of a deal. I disagree. I think it will have

643
00:35:00,390 --> 00:35:03,190
Speaker 3: defined the election in big ways. Not just people who

644
00:35:03,230 --> 00:35:04,950
Speaker 3: are not going to come back to Congress because of gerrymandering,

645
00:35:05,430 --> 00:35:07,589
Speaker 3: but it shifted the whole map right and that changed

646
00:35:07,610 --> 00:35:09,590
Speaker 3: some Democratic strategies to their advantage in some cases.

647
00:35:11,110 --> 00:35:11,690
Speaker 2: For sure.

648
00:35:11,870 --> 00:35:14,810
Speaker 1: And I mean, I also think like they gerrymandered with

649
00:35:14,870 --> 00:35:20,810
Speaker 1: the 2024 maps, which are probably irrelevant because that what

650
00:35:20,930 --> 00:35:24,270
Speaker 1: the group that Donald Trump got together is probably, you

651
00:35:24,310 --> 00:35:26,109
Speaker 1: probably can't put that together again.

652
00:35:26,770 --> 00:35:28,819
Speaker 3: Well, we'll see. Some of these tickets will be written

653
00:35:28,860 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 3: after the election. But I already saw that cooking because

654
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 3: There's going to be an effort to say, well, there's

655
00:35:33,940 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 3: a big, big hyping of how democracy was at risk.

656
00:35:37,460 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 3: But look, it turns out that the House can change

657
00:35:39,420 --> 00:35:41,860
Speaker 3: hands anyway. And I think that would be a wrong

658
00:35:42,100 --> 00:35:44,169
Speaker 3: way to view it. But that's going to happen. There's

659
00:35:44,190 --> 00:35:46,969
Speaker 3: already jockeying by people who are campaigning for candidates. And

660
00:35:47,130 --> 00:35:50,149
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris is going to head out soon, joining people

661
00:35:50,190 --> 00:35:52,810
Speaker 3: who are already clearly running in twenty twenty eight. And

662
00:35:52,830 --> 00:35:54,770
Speaker 3: we're going to have scorecards and say, who do they

663
00:35:54,810 --> 00:35:57,060
Speaker 3: campaign for? Who won? They're different. There are different approaches

664
00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:00,020
Speaker 3: to this. But basically, a lot of Democrats are making

665
00:36:00,060 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 3: it known. Mark Kelly, for example. Make sure people know

666
00:36:02,900 --> 00:36:05,620
Speaker 3: that he is in demand everywhere. He's not a Democrat

667
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 3: that people are afraid of appearing with in a plus

668
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 3: 20 seat. Pete Buttigieg has the same message. That's already happening.

669
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,549
Speaker 3: People working for these guys who might run for president

670
00:36:15,870 --> 00:36:17,770
Speaker 3: are going to say, did you notice how many states

671
00:36:17,790 --> 00:36:18,989
Speaker 3: he went to, how many people won, etc.

672
00:36:19,820 --> 00:36:25,020
Speaker 1: So you describe this as, insert 2028 candidate was the

673
00:36:25,060 --> 00:36:28,260
Speaker 1: strongest surrogate. That's the phenomenon you're talking about.

674
00:36:28,460 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can see this. I wasn't, hopefully in the piece,

675
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:35,739
Speaker 3: I wasn't picking on Buttigieg, but Buttigieg's campaign has, it has,

676
00:36:36,180 --> 00:36:39,710
Speaker 3: I call it a campaign, Freudian slip. The Buttigieg operation

677
00:36:40,270 --> 00:36:43,930
Speaker 3: just acts the most like a pre-presidential campaign in terms

678
00:36:43,989 --> 00:36:46,580
Speaker 3: of making sure reporters know where they're going, breaking news

679
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 3: that he's going to head somewhere. Pete's going to rally

680
00:36:48,420 --> 00:36:51,660
Speaker 3: here and talk about this. And he just staked a

681
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:54,850
Speaker 3: lot of claims on the map that we're going to

682
00:36:54,890 --> 00:36:57,009
Speaker 3: come back to and say, well, Pete campaigned there. What

683
00:36:57,030 --> 00:36:59,969
Speaker 3: does that say about his electability? There are places like

684
00:37:00,130 --> 00:37:03,870
Speaker 3: Pennsylvania 7th District where everybody campaigned for Bob Brooks, Bernie

685
00:37:03,890 --> 00:37:06,880
Speaker 3: campaigned for him, Buttigieg campaigned for him, and a lot

686
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,660
Speaker 3: of people take credit. But that's something that all of

687
00:37:09,700 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 3: us in the media actually are going to have to

688
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,580
Speaker 3: pay attention to, And I imagine Ro Khanna, who is

689
00:37:15,660 --> 00:37:19,420
Speaker 3: not strategic on purpose, his endorsement strategy is not I

690
00:37:19,460 --> 00:37:22,650
Speaker 3: want the best win record. It is he really sprays

691
00:37:22,730 --> 00:37:25,110
Speaker 3: out his endorsement to help whoever he can. But he

692
00:37:25,570 --> 00:37:27,930
Speaker 3: wants it out there as somebody who's not in the

693
00:37:28,070 --> 00:37:32,820
Speaker 3: in the first tier of conversation, really, that he can

694
00:37:32,930 --> 00:37:35,779
Speaker 3: he can go across lines into places where people don't

695
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,239
Speaker 3: vote for Democrats because of the Epstein files. And then

696
00:37:38,260 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 3: you've got the governors. The governors are careful because. Jimmy Pritzker,

697
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:45,660
Speaker 3: Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro, they're all running for reelection with

698
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 3: people expecting them to run for president. They're not saying

699
00:37:48,700 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 3: they're not going to run for president, but they're being

700
00:37:51,060 --> 00:37:54,339
Speaker 3: both careful and making it known that, oh, Wes Moore

701
00:37:54,380 --> 00:37:57,299
Speaker 3: was in Ohio and he was in Wisconsin. Jimmy Pritzker

702
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,090
Speaker 3: has been donating a lot of money to the Texas

703
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:04,150
Speaker 3: Democrats to help Gina Hinojosa. That stuff has already been happening.

704
00:38:04,350 --> 00:38:06,750
Speaker 3: And so if you're a reader who's not talking to

705
00:38:06,770 --> 00:38:09,670
Speaker 3: political operatives all day, I was trying to get you

706
00:38:09,690 --> 00:38:11,790
Speaker 3: in the room and say this is this is underway.

707
00:38:11,850 --> 00:38:14,430
Speaker 3: Like people are going to be on TV in three

708
00:38:14,469 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 3: weeks saying, and then, and this matters. The final thing

709
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 3: I'll say about it, this matters because the first people

710
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,850
Speaker 3: into the breach after election do shape the conversation. Just

711
00:38:24,870 --> 00:38:28,959
Speaker 3: that in 2021, When Democrats underperformed, they won the presidency,

712
00:38:28,980 --> 00:38:31,739
Speaker 3: but they underperformed and lost House seats, et cetera, didn't

713
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:35,100
Speaker 3: win the Senate until the runoffs in Georgia. It mattered

714
00:38:35,140 --> 00:38:37,140
Speaker 3: that a bunch of Democrats came out like Abigail Spanberg

715
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:38,779
Speaker 3: and say it was the fund the police movement. And

716
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:40,779
Speaker 3: there was a weeks long discussion about how the left

717
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:44,290
Speaker 3: went too far. Bernie did the opposite. Twenty twenty four.

718
00:38:44,370 --> 00:38:47,430
Speaker 3: He loses instantly. He has a statement because a lot

719
00:38:47,450 --> 00:38:49,049
Speaker 3: of Democrats are figuring, what am I going to say?

720
00:38:49,090 --> 00:38:50,069
Speaker 3: What am I going to do? I need to talk

721
00:38:50,090 --> 00:38:51,610
Speaker 3: to people before I put something. Bernie out of the

722
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:53,610
Speaker 3: gate says this because they banned the working class. And

723
00:38:53,660 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 3: then Bernie is part of the conversation about what the

724
00:38:55,580 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 3: party stands for. So get ready is basically the idea

725
00:38:58,580 --> 00:38:58,980
Speaker 3: of the column.

726
00:38:59,000 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 2: Yeah.

727
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,180
Speaker 1: I just want to add when we were talking about

728
00:39:01,219 --> 00:39:03,420
Speaker 1: Mayor Pete for a minute, you know how you were

729
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 1: saying Mayor Pete is of all the sort of surrogates.

730
00:39:07,820 --> 00:39:10,299
Speaker 1: He's the one who seems the most interested in running

731
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 1: for president. I would I think Rahm Emanuel may have

732
00:39:14,180 --> 00:39:14,660
Speaker 1: him be.

733
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,700
Speaker 3: Yes. They have different strategies, right, because they have different

734
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 3: levels of fame, different level of interest. Right now, there

735
00:39:21,620 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 3: are people who don't like Kamala Harris, but when she

736
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,370
Speaker 3: announces she's going somewhere, she will get a crowd there.

737
00:39:25,390 --> 00:39:27,890
Speaker 3: And Rahm Emanuel does not, naturally. And there are always

738
00:39:27,930 --> 00:39:30,839
Speaker 3: candidates who they need to get into the conversation by

739
00:39:30,900 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 3: making themselves very present, reaching out to reporters. AOC, who's

740
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:36,969
Speaker 3: unclear if she wants to run, but I guess we

741
00:39:36,989 --> 00:39:38,969
Speaker 3: said everybody. She's not like that. She does not need

742
00:39:38,989 --> 00:39:40,970
Speaker 3: to advance. I'm going to places. I'm doing 20 interviews

743
00:39:40,989 --> 00:39:43,330
Speaker 3: about my trip. I'm super available when I'm on the ground.

744
00:39:43,350 --> 00:39:45,210
Speaker 3: I have a colleague who's with her in Michigan this week.

745
00:39:45,850 --> 00:39:47,590
Speaker 3: But she doesn't need to. She just is in the

746
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,700
Speaker 3: conversation when she says something. I mentioned the Abdul Sayyed

747
00:39:50,739 --> 00:39:52,580
Speaker 3: comment when she says something, it's news.

748
00:39:52,739 --> 00:39:55,060
Speaker 1: So the last piece of this that I want you

749
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:58,660
Speaker 1: to talk about is the Latino vibe shift is over. Explain.

750
00:39:59,020 --> 00:40:01,050
Speaker 3: This has been happening for quite a while. I remember

751
00:40:01,090 --> 00:40:03,570
Speaker 3: going to Texas in 2014 and Greg Abbott was starting

752
00:40:03,590 --> 00:40:08,930
Speaker 3: to campaign for Rio Grande Valley Latinos, Tejanos. And Republicans

753
00:40:09,010 --> 00:40:13,310
Speaker 3: inch forward, then Trump, to everybody's surprise, because he's not

754
00:40:13,330 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 3: been that delicate when he talks about Latinos or immigrants.

755
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:19,770
Speaker 3: Trump gets a generational Republican breakthrough in the Rio Grande Valley.

756
00:40:20,190 --> 00:40:22,450
Speaker 3: And no Republican thinks that that is continuing this year.

757
00:40:22,469 --> 00:40:25,710
Speaker 3: The way that they're spending the Republican committees are clearly

758
00:40:26,210 --> 00:40:30,390
Speaker 3: admitting that they overextended themselves in South Texas. There's stuff

759
00:40:30,430 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 3: in Florida that's competitive that was trending their way for

760
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:35,380
Speaker 3: three elections in a row. That's going to be legitimate.

761
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:37,219
Speaker 3: Who's going to take the credit for what worked, though?

762
00:40:38,100 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 3: There will be a fight. I talked to Chuck Roach

763
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:42,470
Speaker 3: is working with a lot of those campaigns. who was

764
00:40:42,489 --> 00:40:45,540
Speaker 3: a Bernie guy, there's going to be this discourse about

765
00:40:45,580 --> 00:40:49,660
Speaker 3: what worked. Because one reason that Democrats are so flummoxed

766
00:40:49,700 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 3: by Texas is a lot of the groups in the

767
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 3: immigration space, the Latino space, they were just not ahead

768
00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:01,190
Speaker 3: of the curve here. They're making demands of Democratic candidates,

769
00:41:01,230 --> 00:41:05,950
Speaker 3: for example, in 2020 that were not popular among Latino voters.

770
00:41:05,989 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 3: So there's, I think, an opening for Democrats Once they

771
00:41:10,540 --> 00:41:14,569
Speaker 3: do better with Latino voters this time, it would be

772
00:41:14,650 --> 00:41:17,570
Speaker 3: shocking that Mike Johnson is not prepared for it because

773
00:41:17,590 --> 00:41:21,140
Speaker 3: they're already triaging one of those seats. Once that happens,

774
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 3: there'll be a fight over, OK, what do we do

775
00:41:23,060 --> 00:41:23,950
Speaker 3: right now? Do we continue it?

776
00:41:24,750 --> 00:41:29,010
Speaker 1: So talk us through what is happening in Ohio, because

777
00:41:29,030 --> 00:41:32,760
Speaker 1: Donald Trump went back to Ohio. Ohio is the state

778
00:41:32,780 --> 00:41:36,859
Speaker 1: that has become very red, but it looks like Vivek

779
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:41,180
Speaker 1: and John Husted do not have a handle on what's

780
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 1: happening here. And it looks like the Democrats might have

781
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:47,009
Speaker 1: an opening, especially with Sherrod Brown, who's won there pretty recently.

782
00:41:47,469 --> 00:41:51,210
Speaker 3: Yes. The short story of Ohio, when you look at

783
00:41:51,230 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 3: the rest of the Midwest, there are states where Democrats

784
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 3: can win without winning white working class voters who they

785
00:41:57,340 --> 00:42:01,950
Speaker 3: used to get. That's Michigan, that's Wisconsin, that's Pennsylvania. There

786
00:42:01,989 --> 00:42:05,689
Speaker 3: are states they can't. And in Ohio, the Democratic map,

787
00:42:05,730 --> 00:42:07,890
Speaker 3: when they win narrowly, you can go back and look

788
00:42:07,930 --> 00:42:11,310
Speaker 3: at Obama 2012, is they win the cities, the big

789
00:42:11,350 --> 00:42:14,980
Speaker 3: C cities, they win Toledo, and then they win Northeast Ohio,

790
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:18,500
Speaker 3: which is more working class, always has been culturally more conservative,

791
00:42:18,540 --> 00:42:23,220
Speaker 3: but very, very organized labor, very loyal to the Democratic Party.

792
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:27,299
Speaker 3: And that started to slip under Obama and Trump accelerated it.

793
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 3: No Democrat, Sherrod Brown included, has been able to hold

794
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,859
Speaker 3: on to those voters. So I was in Northeast Ohio

795
00:42:33,890 --> 00:42:35,630
Speaker 3: in Youngstown at the start of the week to see

796
00:42:35,670 --> 00:42:38,129
Speaker 3: what's going on. What can you learn from a couple

797
00:42:38,150 --> 00:42:40,630
Speaker 3: of days there? Part of my theory was this. A

798
00:42:40,670 --> 00:42:42,489
Speaker 3: lot of reporters did a quick trip to Youngstown to

799
00:42:42,510 --> 00:42:46,210
Speaker 3: see what's going on when Trump won in 2016. It's

800
00:42:46,270 --> 00:42:48,899
Speaker 3: not that Trump is suddenly hated and unpopular and there's

801
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:53,300
Speaker 3: graffiti of him everywhere. It's it's there. but the con

802
00:42:53,340 --> 00:42:56,100
Speaker 3: the conversion seemed to have stopped. And just even the

803
00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:59,060
Speaker 3: people at the rally he held were more, uh, maggot

804
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 3: diehards had been to several Trump rallies, not the people

805
00:43:01,620 --> 00:43:04,339
Speaker 3: with the clue that he was catching on 2016 and

806
00:43:04,340 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 3: 2020 was people who didn't normally vote showing up. And

807
00:43:07,739 --> 00:43:10,350
Speaker 3: I've talked to people and a rally is not everything,

808
00:43:10,450 --> 00:43:14,230
Speaker 3: but Democrats too believe because Republicans have been in control

809
00:43:14,270 --> 00:43:17,090
Speaker 3: of the country for two years, the control of the

810
00:43:17,130 --> 00:43:21,270
Speaker 3: state of Ohio for, uh, this 16 years, uh, And

811
00:43:21,370 --> 00:43:25,020
Speaker 3: because they've been winning these Northeast Ohio races, the worm

812
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:28,380
Speaker 3: has turned. And now Republicans can't say, give us a chance.

813
00:43:29,420 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 3: They have a chance. And voters do not think they

814
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:35,359
Speaker 3: have turned the economy around. I use that term. That's

815
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:38,550
Speaker 3: a cliche, turn the economy around. Unemployment's sort of low.

816
00:43:38,570 --> 00:43:40,450
Speaker 3: But in these places, there have been a lot of

817
00:43:40,489 --> 00:43:45,110
Speaker 3: promises made about jobs coming back. And Trump has delivered some,

818
00:43:45,430 --> 00:43:49,390
Speaker 3: but prices are still high. And things did not snap

819
00:43:49,450 --> 00:43:52,180
Speaker 3: back to the way they were in In the 1970s,

820
00:43:52,380 --> 00:43:56,100
Speaker 3: Trump in 2016 was promising a renaissance in Northeast Ohio.

821
00:43:57,260 --> 00:44:00,379
Speaker 3: In 2020, the argument was that he was stimmy because

822
00:44:00,420 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 3: of COVID. In 2024, he's going to bring it all back.

823
00:44:03,260 --> 00:44:07,009
Speaker 3: There's a little bit of attrition there that there definitely

824
00:44:07,030 --> 00:44:11,310
Speaker 3: was skepticism from voters. Do they love the Democratic Party now?

825
00:44:11,489 --> 00:44:11,669
Speaker 2: No.

826
00:44:11,730 --> 00:44:13,410
Speaker 3: But are they committed to coming out and voting for

827
00:44:13,450 --> 00:44:16,810
Speaker 3: Trump because he's going to change everything? They don't think

828
00:44:16,830 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 3: that anymore. They've seen what kind of president he is.

829
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,450
Speaker 1: So do you think from being out, do you think

830
00:44:21,510 --> 00:44:24,390
Speaker 1: that that chariot has a chance? Do you think that

831
00:44:24,830 --> 00:44:26,630
Speaker 1: what is your sense on the ground there?

832
00:44:27,050 --> 00:44:30,210
Speaker 3: Well, part of the story is to think that and

833
00:44:30,410 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 3: other people have written this. I went to I checked

834
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:35,839
Speaker 3: and there have been very good stories about the fact

835
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:40,230
Speaker 3: that he is a Indian-American Hindu monk. trying to win

836
00:44:40,310 --> 00:44:44,290
Speaker 3: rural white voters who voted for Trump three times and

837
00:44:44,330 --> 00:44:47,140
Speaker 3: that they are not naturally coming his way. Democrats have Dr.

838
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 3: Amy Acton, who's from Youngstown, who had a very working class,

839
00:44:51,060 --> 00:44:54,819
Speaker 3: poor background. and is not as eloquent a speaker or

840
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:57,830
Speaker 3: as dynamic a campaigner as Vivek, but it just has

841
00:44:57,870 --> 00:45:02,010
Speaker 3: been an easier sell. But Democrats are not saying, nobody

842
00:45:02,050 --> 00:45:05,450
Speaker 3: was saying, we're really excited to get a bunch of

843
00:45:05,489 --> 00:45:07,569
Speaker 3: white voters who don't like the Indian candidate. It's more

844
00:45:07,630 --> 00:45:10,950
Speaker 3: that at this moment in time, Vivek is associated with...

845
00:45:12,300 --> 00:45:14,969
Speaker 3: the tech industry, which was more popular than it was in,

846
00:45:15,930 --> 00:45:18,810
Speaker 3: more popular in 2004 than it is now. It's understate.

847
00:45:19,110 --> 00:45:21,650
Speaker 3: He's on tape saying data centers are great. He wants

848
00:45:21,690 --> 00:45:25,790
Speaker 3: more in Ohio. And there's below the surface with the

849
00:45:25,830 --> 00:45:27,930
Speaker 3: vague too, there is, you saw this with Republicans over

850
00:45:27,950 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 3: the last month, our conservative influencers, this kind of anti-immigrant

851
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:37,660
Speaker 3: sentiment that is spread far beyond people who crossed the

852
00:45:37,700 --> 00:45:41,580
Speaker 3: border illegally and are committing crime to H1B holders. You've

853
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,150
Speaker 3: got the irony of JD Vance being the vice president

854
00:45:44,190 --> 00:45:47,870
Speaker 3: who's trying to stop the brain drain from India, keep

855
00:45:47,890 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 3: the brains in India. That already is pretty obvious. But

856
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:54,500
Speaker 3: the Democrats think, OK, we've got a lot of things

857
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:57,219
Speaker 3: clicking for us. We have a candidate who cannot make

858
00:45:57,260 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 3: the same Trump. I'm going to bring all your jobs

859
00:45:59,060 --> 00:46:01,710
Speaker 3: back offer because he looks at the embodiment of industries

860
00:46:01,730 --> 00:46:03,890
Speaker 3: that are going to come in and outcompete for your

861
00:46:03,930 --> 00:46:07,569
Speaker 3: labor and take your job away with AI. But have

862
00:46:07,610 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 3: we fixed our image as far as the party be?

863
00:46:12,690 --> 00:46:15,830
Speaker 3: And that's TBD. But the way they're campaigning is they're

864
00:46:15,850 --> 00:46:18,390
Speaker 3: not running as conservatives. They're running as economic populists. Brown

865
00:46:18,410 --> 00:46:21,489
Speaker 3: has never voted for NAFTA. Acton, again, is promising a

866
00:46:21,510 --> 00:46:24,380
Speaker 3: lot of investments in state capacity. They're just running as

867
00:46:24,430 --> 00:46:27,890
Speaker 3: populists without the baggage of Hillary Clinton. the baggage of

868
00:46:27,930 --> 00:46:32,569
Speaker 3: immigration under Joe Biden, and reintroducing themselves to voters. This

869
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:34,420
Speaker 3: is the thing that a lot of Democrats will say.

870
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 3: They're not saying, we told you so, we told you

871
00:46:36,260 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 3: to be tolerable, you're an idiot. They're just saying, well,

872
00:46:38,460 --> 00:46:41,779
Speaker 3: you tried. You tried something new, and it hasn't worked

873
00:46:41,820 --> 00:46:45,220
Speaker 3: because Trump is working for other people, not you. The

874
00:46:45,980 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 3: vague ever-Republican John Huston can be attacked with the same thing.

875
00:46:50,100 --> 00:46:52,950
Speaker 3: There was a lot of faith that voters had, that

876
00:46:52,969 --> 00:46:55,910
Speaker 3: Trump voters had in 2016, that this wealthy candidate could

877
00:46:55,950 --> 00:46:58,109
Speaker 3: not be bought And that's just not how people think

878
00:46:58,150 --> 00:47:01,170
Speaker 3: about him anymore. It's very clear that, yes, he's a

879
00:47:01,210 --> 00:47:05,450
Speaker 3: negotiator who can jawbone big companies into doing things he wants.

880
00:47:06,290 --> 00:47:09,590
Speaker 3: But is that helping you? Is that bringing the prosperity

881
00:47:09,610 --> 00:47:12,399
Speaker 3: you wanted to reach to Ohio? Would Vivek do that?

882
00:47:12,660 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 3: It is a different conversation now that I want to

883
00:47:16,300 --> 00:47:18,100
Speaker 3: see if it works. I want to see if it's

884
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 3: clicking and I want to see if it works. Because

885
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 3: if Democrats can regain control Northeast Ohio, if they can

886
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:27,580
Speaker 3: win Ohio at all, the map would probably be, I'm

887
00:47:27,620 --> 00:47:29,980
Speaker 3: holding my hand up a little bit. They win Columbus

888
00:47:30,020 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 3: and they win the suburbs. They win Cincinnati, they win

889
00:47:31,820 --> 00:47:33,420
Speaker 3: the suburbs. They win Cleveland, they win the suburbs. And

890
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:37,149
Speaker 3: the turnout is high. They need that. And then they

891
00:47:37,410 --> 00:47:40,290
Speaker 3: don't lose Northeast Ohio by that much. They can afford to,

892
00:47:40,870 --> 00:47:43,630
Speaker 3: Trumbull County used to be safe Democratic. They're probably not

893
00:47:43,650 --> 00:47:45,270
Speaker 3: going to win that. But if they lose that by

894
00:47:45,310 --> 00:47:48,109
Speaker 3: two or three points instead of 15 points, that will

895
00:47:48,130 --> 00:47:50,920
Speaker 3: indicate that they rolled the Trump wave back. And this

896
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:52,930
Speaker 3: is a This is like the wave in the second

897
00:47:52,969 --> 00:47:56,430
Speaker 3: planet in Interstellar, very slow moving, gigantic wave that just

898
00:47:56,530 --> 00:47:57,810
Speaker 3: kept crushing them for 10 years.

899
00:47:58,130 --> 00:48:01,209
Speaker 1: But don't you don't you think that if anyone can

900
00:48:01,250 --> 00:48:03,989
Speaker 1: do it, Sherrod is neatly qualified?

901
00:48:04,430 --> 00:48:07,069
Speaker 3: Yes, that was the idea behind recruiting him. So Tim

902
00:48:07,130 --> 00:48:10,259
Speaker 3: Ryan ran for Senate against J.D. Vance and lost. He

903
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:13,980
Speaker 3: lost this area, too, even though this has been the story.

904
00:48:14,060 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 3: No Democrat is able to hold on to Moaning County,

905
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:21,770
Speaker 3: Moaning Valley. They win Youngstown, but not by enough. Brown,

906
00:48:22,630 --> 00:48:24,750
Speaker 3: he has a better argument to make this time. He

907
00:48:24,790 --> 00:48:29,050
Speaker 3: has his record. For example, Democrats get blamed for shipping

908
00:48:29,070 --> 00:48:31,180
Speaker 3: jobs overseas. That was never Sherrod Brown. He's always a

909
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:36,520
Speaker 3: trade protectionist. He's very comfortable bashing big corporations and saying

910
00:48:36,540 --> 00:48:38,779
Speaker 3: that the government's being rigged to benefit them. Just there

911
00:48:38,820 --> 00:48:40,440
Speaker 3: are Democrats have to learn that. That's not how he

912
00:48:40,460 --> 00:48:42,620
Speaker 3: has to learn that. And he has that argument with

913
00:48:42,660 --> 00:48:47,140
Speaker 3: Trump now and with John Husted. He's the face, Husted,

914
00:48:47,350 --> 00:48:49,170
Speaker 3: according to the Brown campaign, the face of data centers.

915
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:53,540
Speaker 3: And that is something Republicans have adjusted. So an argument

916
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:57,290
Speaker 3: I was seeing in Ohio is that Houston saying Brown's

917
00:48:57,310 --> 00:48:58,790
Speaker 3: a lot of talk, but he didn't achieve the things

918
00:48:58,830 --> 00:49:01,130
Speaker 3: that we've been able to achieve. For example, the main example,

919
00:49:01,150 --> 00:49:03,730
Speaker 3: he says, is Brown wanted to stop private equity from

920
00:49:03,770 --> 00:49:06,399
Speaker 3: buying up homes. And I stopped that. That's my bill.

921
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:09,319
Speaker 3: I did it. You saw the same thing in May.

922
00:49:10,980 --> 00:49:13,950
Speaker 3: As Susan Collins said, we've already stopped that. That's already done.

923
00:49:14,010 --> 00:49:16,410
Speaker 3: And you found this is something that every party in

924
00:49:16,430 --> 00:49:19,489
Speaker 3: power is finding. If people don't see that happening, if

925
00:49:19,510 --> 00:49:22,670
Speaker 3: they see. articles online about private equity buying houses, they're like,

926
00:49:22,690 --> 00:49:26,490
Speaker 3: that didn't work. You didn't fix it. And Brown's just

927
00:49:26,710 --> 00:49:29,359
Speaker 3: very comfortable saying, yeah, these guys are not actually going

928
00:49:29,380 --> 00:49:32,760
Speaker 3: to pass laws with teeth that benefit you because look

929
00:49:32,780 --> 00:49:34,759
Speaker 3: who's in the room every other day. It's Elon. It's

930
00:49:34,860 --> 00:49:36,620
Speaker 3: Mark Zuckerberg. It's Jeff Bezos.

931
00:49:37,219 --> 00:49:39,739
Speaker 1: Right. I mean, it's very hard for them to make

932
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 1: that case. What other what other like stories of the

933
00:49:45,140 --> 00:49:49,270
Speaker 1: midterm are you watching besides Ohio states where you are?

934
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 1: You know, where you think Democrats really have a shot,

935
00:49:52,580 --> 00:49:57,520
Speaker 1: where we might be surprised in Iowa, Kansas or in

936
00:49:57,580 --> 00:50:00,080
Speaker 1: Alaska or where you don't think they have a shot.

937
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:03,100
Speaker 3: And you think, well, you mentioned you mentioned most of them.

938
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:07,469
Speaker 3: The we're at the point where, again, Republicans are triaging

939
00:50:07,510 --> 00:50:10,910
Speaker 3: and we're seeing who falls off. I am. We're also

940
00:50:11,170 --> 00:50:14,450
Speaker 3: the fun part of the election. People overanalyze early voting

941
00:50:14,489 --> 00:50:15,030
Speaker 3: and mail voting.

942
00:50:15,690 --> 00:50:15,890
Speaker 2: Right.

943
00:50:15,930 --> 00:50:20,379
Speaker 3: But I. I really am interested in the places that

944
00:50:20,420 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 3: have gone for Trump three times and kept moving in

945
00:50:22,820 --> 00:50:28,950
Speaker 3: his direction. Not just rural, but ex-urban, smaller towns, towns

946
00:50:28,989 --> 00:50:34,340
Speaker 3: of less than 5,000 people. That has been very hard

947
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:37,400
Speaker 3: for any Democrat to win, no matter what their politics are.

948
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:42,359
Speaker 3: And so I am watching the red states, Iowa and

949
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:47,570
Speaker 3: Ohio in particular. because Democrats in those races have made,

950
00:50:47,670 --> 00:50:50,209
Speaker 3: I talked about Ohio quite a bit, but have made

951
00:50:50,230 --> 00:50:53,650
Speaker 3: a couple of announcements that separate them from the national party.

952
00:50:53,710 --> 00:50:56,189
Speaker 3: And Amy Acton, I mentioned, she got in a fight

953
00:50:56,250 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 3: with Equality Ohio, the gay rights group in the state,

954
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:03,100
Speaker 3: over answering reporters' question on gender and saying, I don't

955
00:51:03,140 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 3: believe boys should be playing girls' sports. Marcy Kaptur in

956
00:51:07,860 --> 00:51:10,540
Speaker 3: Toledo had even more to say about that. In Iowa,

957
00:51:10,580 --> 00:51:13,089
Speaker 3: it's the same answer from the Democrats there. And that's not,

958
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:14,819
Speaker 3: I don't think that's going to be the defining issue

959
00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:17,680
Speaker 3: of the election. What that I think has done for

960
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:21,859
Speaker 3: some Democrats where they've gotten the word out is they were,

961
00:51:21,989 --> 00:51:24,009
Speaker 3: they angered people who think that they are throwing a

962
00:51:24,030 --> 00:51:28,549
Speaker 3: vulnerable community under the bus, but they're separating themselves from

963
00:51:28,570 --> 00:51:30,830
Speaker 3: the national party and proactively answering the question. And I

964
00:51:31,550 --> 00:51:33,489
Speaker 3: think it's too much into this, but basically the conversation

965
00:51:33,510 --> 00:51:36,670
Speaker 3: among groups who want to win on this or Sarah McBride,

966
00:51:36,710 --> 00:51:39,390
Speaker 3: who's the first trans member of Congress, but what would

967
00:51:39,430 --> 00:51:42,620
Speaker 3: rather win elections and lose them is the, Don't treat

968
00:51:42,660 --> 00:51:45,069
Speaker 3: people who disagree with you like they're bigots. Have an

969
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:48,529
Speaker 3: answer and then say Republicans sure seem obsessed with this

970
00:51:48,610 --> 00:51:50,590
Speaker 3: because they don't want to talk about the economy. And

971
00:51:50,630 --> 00:51:53,029
Speaker 3: so I'm curious if that works. Those are the first

972
00:51:53,070 --> 00:51:57,469
Speaker 3: two states. Alaska, I'm I'm I'm curious to see kind

973
00:51:57,910 --> 00:52:00,810
Speaker 3: of the turnout patterns there because Paltola has done a

974
00:52:00,850 --> 00:52:07,090
Speaker 3: very good job of. winning every Democratic constituency she can.

975
00:52:07,810 --> 00:52:09,950
Speaker 3: And when Republicans win Alaska, which is most of the time,

976
00:52:09,969 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 3: they have really good turnout in Fairbanks and the Mat-Su Valley.

977
00:52:12,460 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 3: And that's where the president and vice president, I think

978
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:17,259
Speaker 3: this is the first election.

979
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:18,160
Speaker 1: Where a president went to Alaska.

980
00:52:18,180 --> 00:52:21,489
Speaker 3: The president and vice president, well, both of them have

981
00:52:21,510 --> 00:52:24,290
Speaker 3: gone to Alaska. It's not hard to get to if

982
00:52:24,330 --> 00:52:26,690
Speaker 3: you have a government plane, but it is a day

983
00:52:26,850 --> 00:52:28,969
Speaker 3: that you spend to get there, a day that then

984
00:52:29,190 --> 00:52:32,690
Speaker 3: you take an eye back. Uh, I'm interested in that too, but,

985
00:52:32,710 --> 00:52:35,430
Speaker 3: but those, those ones, the most for election night itself,

986
00:52:35,780 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 3: everyone has the same answer, right? This we're going to watch.

987
00:52:37,980 --> 00:52:41,740
Speaker 3: We're going to watch Virginia, Virginia, Tidewater, Virginia, one, two, three.

988
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 3: We're going to watch New Hampshire in some of the

989
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:45,940
Speaker 3: towns that report early and see how they've trended. Uh,

990
00:52:47,290 --> 00:52:49,690
Speaker 3: And yeah, that's kind of what I'm watching. I wish

991
00:52:49,730 --> 00:52:51,870
Speaker 3: I had more interesting answers because everybody at this point

992
00:52:51,890 --> 00:52:53,609
Speaker 3: look the same map. However, what happened over the over

993
00:52:53,660 --> 00:52:56,500
Speaker 3: the year is there definitely was and every cycle starts

994
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:58,020
Speaker 3: this way. You can go back and read really fun

995
00:52:58,020 --> 00:53:01,480
Speaker 3: 2009 takes on how hard it would be for Republicans

996
00:53:01,500 --> 00:53:03,950
Speaker 3: to win back the House. But everybody starts with the

997
00:53:03,989 --> 00:53:07,839
Speaker 3: presidential preference in these states and across the country. And

998
00:53:08,140 --> 00:53:09,700
Speaker 3: they look at the map and say, well, this is

999
00:53:09,739 --> 00:53:11,980
Speaker 3: a plus 10 Trump area. So they're going to Republicans

1000
00:53:12,000 --> 00:53:15,140
Speaker 3: will win that. And then when things start to deteriorate,

1001
00:53:15,180 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 3: those are competitive. That's that's the part we're in right now.

1002
00:53:19,180 --> 00:53:23,700
Speaker 3: Democrats lived through 2010 and they lost Barack Obama's Senate

1003
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:27,279
Speaker 3: seat in Illinois. They lost Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. There's

1004
00:53:27,300 --> 00:53:30,370
Speaker 3: just stuff that happens in these races when one party

1005
00:53:30,410 --> 00:53:33,169
Speaker 3: has not made itself robust enough to survive people being

1006
00:53:33,250 --> 00:53:37,350
Speaker 3: angry about the economy. But I really would watch. I'm curious,

1007
00:53:37,650 --> 00:53:41,509
Speaker 3: the tactics that Democrats used in Iowa and Ohio, they

1008
00:53:41,550 --> 00:53:44,890
Speaker 3: also involved, but they specifically involved telling one part of

1009
00:53:44,910 --> 00:53:47,450
Speaker 3: the party that they're not going to answer them in

1010
00:53:47,469 --> 00:53:49,310
Speaker 3: the way that they think is most humane, that they're

1011
00:53:49,330 --> 00:53:52,230
Speaker 3: willing to say, I disagree with you guys on this.

1012
00:53:52,250 --> 00:53:52,970
Speaker 3: I just want to win.

1013
00:53:53,410 --> 00:53:53,670
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1014
00:53:53,790 --> 00:53:53,969
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1015
00:53:54,010 --> 00:53:57,190
Speaker 3: There's a lot of anger. There's a lot of understandable

1016
00:53:57,230 --> 00:53:59,469
Speaker 3: anger about any Democrat who breaks on that question. Why

1017
00:53:59,489 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 3: can't you just say this is a distraction? But I

1018
00:54:02,560 --> 00:54:04,340
Speaker 3: want to see what that does for the turnout, how

1019
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:07,620
Speaker 3: that works. That will be a trend. It's in the

1020
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 3: five takes, but that'll be a trend that every side

1021
00:54:10,620 --> 00:54:13,230
Speaker 3: of this is watching. Because if they don't, if Sherrod Brown,

1022
00:54:14,450 --> 00:54:16,649
Speaker 3: if Marks and Kaptur loses, the spin will be, well,

1023
00:54:16,969 --> 00:54:19,469
Speaker 3: she did everything she could to get into Republicans on

1024
00:54:19,489 --> 00:54:21,549
Speaker 3: the issue and she lost. Now, she'll be losing in

1025
00:54:21,590 --> 00:54:24,700
Speaker 3: a plus, I think, 13 Trump seat. But there are

1026
00:54:24,739 --> 00:54:27,419
Speaker 3: already eyes on these places to say no Democrat running

1027
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:29,819
Speaker 3: in 2028 should do what they did. And if they win,

1028
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:32,330
Speaker 3: they're going to be, well, that worked. Let's examine it.

1029
00:54:33,050 --> 00:54:35,969
Speaker 1: Dave, thank you. Thank you. Thank you for joining us.

1030
00:54:36,290 --> 00:54:36,629
Speaker 3: Thank you.

1031
00:54:36,650 --> 00:54:43,950
Speaker 1: And now your moment of suffering. Jesse Cannon.

1032
00:54:44,390 --> 00:54:47,870
Speaker 4: So now you know the Tim Robinson meme of the

1033
00:54:47,910 --> 00:54:49,490
Speaker 4: guy in the hot dog suit saying we're all trying

1034
00:54:49,510 --> 00:54:53,560
Speaker 4: to fight the guy who did this. The administration is

1035
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:56,799
Speaker 4: delaying the release of IRS data showing impact of tax cuts,

1036
00:54:56,980 --> 00:55:00,529
Speaker 4: GOP tax cuts. What do you think that could show?

1037
00:55:00,550 --> 00:55:05,150
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's a mystery. But it probably shows

1038
00:55:05,190 --> 00:55:10,489
Speaker 1: tax cuts for billionaires and millionaires, as Bernie Sanders says,

1039
00:55:10,550 --> 00:55:13,989
Speaker 1: for the millionaires and the billionaires. Look, this was the

1040
00:55:14,030 --> 00:55:16,950
Speaker 1: whole reason that rich people donated to him, that rich

1041
00:55:16,989 --> 00:55:20,470
Speaker 1: people wanted him reelected. This is what it is, right?

1042
00:55:20,550 --> 00:55:24,840
Speaker 1: Donald Trump was elected to give very rich people tax cuts.

1043
00:55:24,980 --> 00:55:29,250
Speaker 1: He undoubtedly did that. Now the IRS will not show

1044
00:55:29,370 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 1: because Donald Trump thinks it will hurt him in the midterms.

1045
00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:33,510
Speaker 1: And you know what?

1046
00:55:33,780 --> 00:55:34,259
Speaker 2: It will.

1047
00:55:35,070 --> 00:55:39,500
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

1048
00:55:39,860 --> 00:55:45,200
Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday to hear the best

1049
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:49,620
Speaker 1: minds in politics make sense of all this chaos. If

1050
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:52,720
Speaker 1: you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a friend

1051
00:55:53,219 --> 00:55:56,360
Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going. Thanks for listening.