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Speaker 1: Good morning. It's Sursday, the twenty third of November here

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Speaker 1: in London. This is the BlueBag debutu AT podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: Caroline Hepkat and.

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Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, the UK's Chancellor offers

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Speaker 2: tax cuts, but will has twenty one billion pounds stimulus

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Speaker 2: plan fuel inflation.

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Speaker 1: All right, Dutch lawmaker Fielders secures a shock victory in

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Speaker 1: the country's election.

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Speaker 2: And we bring you a special report on Victor Orban's

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Speaker 2: one billion dollar academy training a new generation of nationalists.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: Jeremy Hunt has announced a raft of tax cuts aimed

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Speaker 2: at boosting growth and reviving the Conservative Party's electoral fortunes.

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Speaker 2: The measures include a cut to national insurance for twenty

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Speaker 2: seven million workers and a permanent tax break for corporate investment.

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Speaker 2: The Chancellor insists his autumn statement will lead to growth

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Speaker 2: in a country that has turned a corner.

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Speaker 3: We cut taxes to help bigger businesses invest, We cut

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Speaker 3: taxes to help smaller businesses grow. We cut taxes for

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Speaker 3: the so employed who keep our country running. And from January,

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Speaker 3: we cut taxes for twenty seven million working people whose

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Speaker 3: hard work drives our economy forward.

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Speaker 2: In total, the policy changes announced by Jeremy Hunt will

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Speaker 2: provide a twenty one billion pounds stimulus to the UK

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Speaker 2: economy into the run up to the next election. The

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Speaker 2: Office for Budget Responsibility says the measures will boost the

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Speaker 2: economy by an average of just under zero point three

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Speaker 2: percent in the coming years.

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Speaker 1: While the government has been trying to defeat inflation all year,

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Speaker 1: it was rising prices that boosted tax revenues and therefore

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Speaker 1: allowed Jeremy Hunt to announce these stimulus measures. Total GDP,

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Speaker 1: including inflation effects, was upgraded by five and a half percent. However,

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Speaker 1: trend growth for the UK, which determines living standards, was

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Speaker 1: downgraded by a total of two point four percent over

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Speaker 1: the next four years. That is something that the Shadow Chancellor,

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Speaker 1: Rachel Reeves pointed out. The Chancellor claims that the economy

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Speaker 1: has turned a corner, yet the truth is that under

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Speaker 1: the Conservatives, growth has hit a dead end. Rachel Reeves

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Speaker 1: also told Parliament that households are paying the price of

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Speaker 1: thirteen years of Tory rule. The Office of Budget Responsibility

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Speaker 1: says that while the outlook has recently improved, real household

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Speaker 1: disposable income is on track to have fallen three and

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Speaker 1: a half percent over the first half of this decade.

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Speaker 2: A far right party has won the elections in the

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Speaker 2: Netherlands and a shark result that will resound across Europe.

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Speaker 2: With the details, here's Boomberg's crispet Hurt.

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Speaker 4: Fielders has lived under police protection for two decades following

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Speaker 4: death threats over his anti Muslim views, but the Dutch

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Speaker 4: far right populist now has a chance to become the

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Speaker 4: country's next prime minister. His Freedom Party secured thirty seven

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Speaker 4: seats in the national election, making them the biggest parliamentary party,

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Speaker 4: although still short of these seventy six needed to govern

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Speaker 4: only once in recent Dutch history, as the leader of

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Speaker 4: the biggest part not gone on to become the country's

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Speaker 4: political leader. Wilda's win comes after he promised a binding

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Speaker 4: referendum on the EU and railed against a range of

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Speaker 4: the bloc's policies on issues like climate change and immigration.

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Speaker 4: The victory could pose a major challenge for the European

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Speaker 4: Union in London. Chris Pitt Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Now Hungary is Prime Minister Victor Auburn is pursuing new

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Speaker 1: powers to detect and punish what he sees as foreign

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Speaker 1: influences in the country. The proposed Sovereignty Protection Agency will

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Speaker 1: aim to identify external efforts to sway politics. That's according

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Speaker 1: to a bill filed by the ruling party on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Auburn's plans attracted an immediate response from the European Commission,

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Speaker 1: who say that they are following developments closely. The Hungarian

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Speaker 1: leader told supporters last week that stricter rules are necessary

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Speaker 1: to keep what he called liberal hegemony in czech.

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Speaker 2: Israel and Hamas are pairing for the ceasefire deal to

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Speaker 2: free hostages to come into effect. The head of Israel's

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Speaker 2: National Security Council said the releases will begin not before Friday,

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Speaker 2: rather than early Thursday as had been previously expected. Israel's

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Benjamin Ettannie who says his forces remained focused

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Speaker 2: on recovering those held captive since.

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Speaker 5: The outbreak of the war. We are indeed taking action

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Speaker 5: constantly in order to bring them back home, to bring

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Speaker 5: them all back home. And when I say all, I

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Speaker 5: mean all of.

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Speaker 2: Them Netania, who also highlighted the country's efforts since the

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Speaker 2: war began six weeks ago. An agreement between Israel and

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Speaker 2: Hamas would mark the first pause in the fighting.

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Speaker 1: And finally, billionaire Warren Buffett says that his will is

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Speaker 1: going to be simple and public. Bloomberg's ed backs that

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Speaker 1: has the story.

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Speaker 6: Buffett says it will be simply filed of the Douglas

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Speaker 6: County Courthouse in Omaha. He says he feels good, but

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Speaker 6: it ninety three. He realizes he's playing an extra innings.

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Speaker 6: He's long pledged more than ninety nine percent of as

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Speaker 6: well as go to philanthropy. He says, after his death,

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Speaker 6: his assets will be an open book. No imaginative trust

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Speaker 6: or foreign entities to avoid public scrutiny, but simple. Buffett

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Speaker 6: is a world's ninth richest person, with one hundred and

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Speaker 6: twenty point eight billion dollars net worth, according to Bloomberg's

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Speaker 6: Billionaires index ed Baxter Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Of course, the big event in the UK here yesterday

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Speaker 2: was the autumn statement from the Chancellor with this new

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Speaker 2: package of tax cuts announced but the growth forecast revised.

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Speaker 2: Dan Carlin, You've been at digesting some of the details

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Speaker 2: and reaction to this. How has the announcements are or rather,

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Speaker 2: how have the announcements and Jeremy Hunt been received?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Absolutely, You and I were covering this, of course

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Speaker 1: live yesterday on Bloomberg Radio on our UK Politics program.

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Speaker 1: We were listening in to the chancellors. He gave that

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Speaker 1: autumn statement. Look, the tax cuts I think have been welcomed,

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Speaker 1: but they come from a very high starting point and

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Speaker 1: some critics say that they then require implausible cuts to

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Speaker 1: public services further down the line. So Hunt announced twenty

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Speaker 1: one billion pounds of tax cuts. There was a big

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Speaker 1: tax break for company investment. There was ten billion pounds

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Speaker 1: a year in terms of the cut to payroll taxes,

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Speaker 1: so that's something that helps twenty seven million workers in

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Speaker 1: the UK. Tory MPs welcomed it, people like Ben Bradley.

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Speaker 1: It will go down very very well with the vast

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Speaker 1: majority of my constituents. But there is some pause elsewhere.

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Speaker 1: The FT sees the timing of the National Insurance tax

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Speaker 1: cut in particular as something that leaves the option of

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Speaker 1: a spring general election if it's a dire opinion polling

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Speaker 1: improves open. So I thought that was an interesting line

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Speaker 1: from the FT, but it also does mean that government

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Speaker 1: departments are going to end up feeling the pain after

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Speaker 1: the next general election. So the Resolution Foundation saying nineteen

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Speaker 1: billion pounds of cuts after the election that is comparable

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Speaker 1: to the Osborne or Theirity years. The Office for Budget

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Speaker 1: Responsibility the fiscal watchdog, saying that the program is severe

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Speaker 1: enough that it's a significant risk to our forecast. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, tax some tax cuts today, but perhaps more

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Speaker 1: pain in the sort of five year window of tax

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Speaker 1: and spending plans from this government.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, so it's the next government that may have to

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Speaker 2: deal with the fallout of that then. So the big

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Speaker 2: focus then has been around the tax burden.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that you see and pick up in

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Speaker 1: all of the coverage. The thresholds for the different tax

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Speaker 1: bands remain frozen and will do so for many more years.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg saying that the tax burden will remain at a

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Speaker 1: post war high thirty seven point seven percent of GDP.

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Speaker 1: If Hunt hadn't done the cuts the taxes yesterday, the

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Speaker 1: tax burden would have been even high thirty eight point

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Speaker 1: four percent. Labour's memorable line from the Shadow Chancellor of

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Speaker 1: Rachel Reeves picking the pockets of working people. The BBC

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Speaker 1: reaction very much focused on tax is still set to

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Speaker 1: rise to its highest level in seventy years. And then

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Speaker 1: there's the big question about whether it's inflationary or not.

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Speaker 1: So economists like from KPMGR self in saying that the

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Speaker 1: ambition to cut taxes is quote virtuous but impractical.

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Speaker 2: So what about the magic beans element of the autumn

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Speaker 2: statement creating growth that every government wants to do?

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Speaker 1: It?

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Speaker 2: Was there a recipe to create growth?

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Speaker 1: It looks more like an aim than a reality. Hunt

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Speaker 1: talked about one hundred and ten measures for growth, leveraging

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Speaker 1: private capital through pension funds, clearing the planning obstacles. The

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Speaker 1: OBR says they'll only add about zero point three percent

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Speaker 1: to growth by twenty twenty eight. The backdrop is the

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Speaker 1: OBR slashing the growth forecast for next year down to

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Speaker 1: zero point seven percent, down from one point eight percent,

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Speaker 1: and then down to one point four percent from two

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Speaker 1: and a half percent for twenty twenty five. So I

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Speaker 1: think the plan is quite clear from the toys that

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Speaker 1: they want to bring down taxes. The hope is, then

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Speaker 1: maybe that voters look past the record in government. The

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Speaker 1: reality is, you know, steepest fall in living standards since

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Speaker 1: the nineteen fifties according to the OBI. And yes, the

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Speaker 1: hope of growth is there, but delivering it very very difficult.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's the big political event in the UK.

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Speaker 2: We've also been keeping an eye on pl Coude of

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Speaker 2: Alopments in the Netherlands after the results of the election

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Speaker 2: there yesterday a shock win for the far right party

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Speaker 2: of Hired Fielders thirty seven seats with ninety eight percent

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Speaker 2: of votes counted as what they have secured the Freedom Parties.

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Speaker 2: That puts them in pole position, although you need seventy

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Speaker 2: six seats to govern, so a lot of the focus

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Speaker 2: now is on what sort of coalition Heared Fielders might

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Speaker 2: be able to lead. Ahead of polling day, many of

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Speaker 2: the other parties had actually ruled out working with him,

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Speaker 2: but the sheer size of the vote in this election

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Speaker 2: and the number of seats is one may force some

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Speaker 2: of them to negotiate some of their positions in this

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you and I've spoken quite a lot

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Speaker 1: about the state of European politics, you know, whether there

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Speaker 1: is a growing trend towards populism or not. And actually

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Speaker 1: the win of Filter's really seems to have taken many

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Speaker 1: people by surprise. What do you think drove Wild's popularity?

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Speaker 1: That's a big question.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's worth remembering that Hudfilers has been on

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Speaker 2: the Dutch political scene for decades. He was formerly a

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Speaker 2: member of Mark Rutter's VVD party is as well. He

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Speaker 2: is a populist of the far right. You know, his

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Speaker 2: anti Islam, anti immigration rhetoric has been the centerpiece of

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Speaker 2: the Freedom Party's history. He was, it's worth saying, convicted

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty for incitement discrimination about comments that he

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Speaker 2: made about Moroccan immigrants, although the judge in that case

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Speaker 2: imposed no penalty. So he's a controversial figure within Dutch

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Speaker 2: politics as well, but he has been around and been

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Speaker 2: on the scene for a very long time. This time around,

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Speaker 2: he centered his campaign around those anti Islam, anti immigration messages.

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Speaker 2: He also had policies that he wanted to stop sending

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Speaker 2: out to Ukraine. For example, he wanted to shut down masks,

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Speaker 2: ban the Quran, but also promised a referendum on leaving

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Speaker 2: the European Union too, which is interesting because that something

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Speaker 2: that the polling actually shows. The majority of Dutch people

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Speaker 2: do trust the EU. In fact, support for the U

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Speaker 2: is higher in the Netherlands that it is in the

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Speaker 2: majority of European Union or the average figure rather for

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Speaker 2: European Union member states and they actually trust the EU

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Speaker 2: more than they trust their own parliament or their own government.

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Speaker 2: So it will be interesting to see how that plays out.

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Speaker 2: Of course, the next part of the negotiations is going

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Speaker 2: to be the tricky one. The Freedom Party came in

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Speaker 2: as the biggest party thirty seven seats. The next largest

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Speaker 2: party is the Green Left Alliance led by former European

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Speaker 2: Commissioner Franz Timmermans at twenty five seats. The VVD Party,

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Speaker 2: the party of the outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutta, came

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Speaker 2: in with twenty four seats, and it's a question of

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Speaker 2: how you make up the electoral mats. This is a

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Speaker 2: pluralist party system that has many parties. I think about

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Speaker 2: ten of them or even more are going to be

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Speaker 2: represented in parliaments. There's going to be a question now

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Speaker 2: of composing that coalition. Will the other party leaders want

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Speaker 2: to work with Hurtfielders and what compromise he will propose

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Speaker 2: in his hardline policies. He already said in his victory

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Speaker 2: speech last night he was willing to compromise to be

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Speaker 2: able to do this, and look, that's been the experience

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Speaker 2: of other politicians and other parts of Europe as well.

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Speaker 2: Look at Georgia Maloney, whose politician policies and government have

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Speaker 2: been less extreme that there those on the election campaign

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Speaker 2: as well. This is nonetheless a shock in Dutch politics,

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Speaker 2: it's a shock in European policy. It's going to be

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Speaker 2: watched elsewhere as well. But the next crucial stage is

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Speaker 2: going to be those coalition negotiations. The last time around,

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Speaker 2: it took nine months for a government to be formed

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Speaker 2: in the Netherlands. That was a coalition of four parties

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Speaker 2: securing agreement. This time around could be even more complicated.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely it could, but again be three or four

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Speaker 1: parties that would be needed to make up the mass,

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Speaker 1: and so what policies from fields get through that whole

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Speaker 1: process is going to be totally fascinating.

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Speaker 7: Now.

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Speaker 2: One of the first masters of congratulations for herdefielders came

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Speaker 2: from Hungary's Prime Minister, victor Orbanner. We're going to Hungary

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Speaker 2: next for our next story. The prime minister they're laying

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Speaker 2: out plans for new powers to detect and punish what

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Speaker 2: he sees as foreign influences in the country. For more,

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Speaker 2: let's go to Bidepest and speak to our reporter Andras Gurgili,

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Speaker 2: who has more on this and as great to have

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Speaker 2: you with us on the program. What has Victor Orban

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Speaker 2: proposed and why.

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Speaker 7: Hello, thanks for having me on the show. And that's right.

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Speaker 7: The new agency that Urban is setting up is supposed

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Speaker 7: to go after any foreign funding that NGOs or political

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Speaker 7: parties receive, with the stated purpose of defending Hungary's sovereignty

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Speaker 7: from outside meddling and fake news campaigns. In practice, civil

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Speaker 7: groups and opposition parties fear this will essentially provide a

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Speaker 7: powerful state apparatus to silence critics on top of the

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Speaker 7: wide array of tools already at the ruling party's disposal.

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Speaker 2: What exactly are they teaching these students in this NCC

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Speaker 2: academy address.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, so they're giving them tutoring languages, leadership, communication, and

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Speaker 7: in facts like all around the humanities, all the way

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Speaker 7: from primary school to university level. And they're inviting speakers

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Speaker 7: such as former Fox News anchor at Tucker Carlson and

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Speaker 7: others that you might recognize, former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Courts

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Speaker 7: and sort of show them, show the students these role models,

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Speaker 7: and just the same way as Orban himself is a

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Speaker 7: role model for the far right in the west of

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Speaker 7: the EU, like in the Netherlands and also for the

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Speaker 7: far right Republicans in the US.

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Speaker 1: Okay, in terms of expansion then, of this academy of

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Speaker 1: the MCC, how is it expanding around the European Union.

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Speaker 7: Yes, it has spread quite rapidly, first of all around

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Speaker 7: neighboring countries in Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine, where there are hundreds

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Speaker 7: of thousands of ethnic Hungarians. They're very receptive to Orban's

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Speaker 7: ideas generally. There's also now an MCC center in Brussels

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Speaker 7: which publishes reports that push Orban's views quite clearly, for

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Speaker 7: example recently on LGBTQ issues, and MCC has bought an

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Speaker 7: entire university in Vienna in Austria.

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Speaker 2: This is something that, in terms of thinking about where

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Speaker 2: the money for this academy comes from, has drawn some

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Speaker 2: interesting supports from the business community as well. Talk us

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Speaker 2: through how the academy is funders.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, so the structure of NCC's endowment was one of

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Speaker 7: the reasons I even became interested in looking at looking

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Speaker 7: into it more closely and writing about it for Bloomberg.

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Speaker 7: The government handed over large equity stakes in an oil

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Speaker 7: refiner and a pharmaceutical company which instantly turned this academy

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Speaker 7: into one of Hungary's single biggest investors in the equities market.

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Speaker 7: It's also got a very rich real estate portfolios, portfolio

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Speaker 7: made up of hotels and other properties.

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Speaker 1: Okay, MCC is also invested in a book publisher, and

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Speaker 1: that has embroiled or involved some controversy over LGBTQ rights.

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Speaker 1: You alluded to it. Can you talk us through that?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, right, Yeah, that's one of the sort of the

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Speaker 7: more controversial issues around it. And while a lot of

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Speaker 7: the teaching in the academy is probably quite innocuous and

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Speaker 7: not always like very emerged in ideology in publishing, that's

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Speaker 7: one of the clearest examples of how it is spreading

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Speaker 7: Urban's ideology. So the bookseller that it bought is one

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Speaker 7: of the biggest in the country, and it quite sort

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Speaker 7: of blatantly complied with with very harsh government regulations which

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Speaker 7: meant that it had to hide books from children, wrapping

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Speaker 7: them up in plastic foil, which is supposedly meant to

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Speaker 7: shield children from exposure to what the government sees as

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Speaker 7: sort of damaging lgbt Q content.

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Speaker 2: Now, you spoke to MCC's leadership for their story as well,

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Speaker 2: what did they tell you about their goals with the academy?

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Speaker 7: Right, so I spoke to quite a few of the

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Speaker 7: leaders and and and they say that they really that

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Speaker 7: they that their mission is education. It's not ideology. It's

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Speaker 7: just to you know, to give young people a better education.

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Speaker 7: And yes, they say they're not value usual, so so

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Speaker 7: they you know, they espouse his conservative values. And and

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Speaker 7: again in a lot of their seminars. That's probably right

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Speaker 7: that that it's only sort of a mild conservative worldview.

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Speaker 7: But again, as I've mentioned, with the choice of speakers,

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Speaker 7: Tackle Castle and so on, clearly it's not going to

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Speaker 7: be opposition to the orban that they that they teach.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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