WEBVTT - Threat of War Escalates 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.000 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:13.240 This is Bloomberg business Week Daily reporting from the magazine 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:17.840 that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:22.760 and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business finance 0:00:22.800 --> 0:00:26.120 and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:26.239 --> 0:00:31.720 Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:34.600 We're going to stay on the Middle East and to 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:38.519 why the US could be possibly drawn more deeply into 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:41.640 the attacks on Rand's nuclear facilities, and that's where we 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:42.320 want to go next. 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:44.800 For more, we head to our Washington DC News bureau 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:48.320 into Bloomberg Newspending on in national security reporter Tony Capasio. 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:52.360 First up, Tony, is the US preparing for war right now? 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:55.920 I think they're positioning what they call assets in the 0:00:56.000 --> 0:01:00.560 region for the eventuality of strikes. I'm not sure you 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:03.720 can call it war, but the tanker thing, the twenty 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:06.080 tankers in the region, I think that's a message to 0:01:06.120 --> 0:01:09.920 Iran that the US may be preparing for round the 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:14.880 clock bombing campaigns and parts of Iran aided by air 0:01:14.959 --> 0:01:16.240 refueling aircraft. 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:19.720 When is war war and when is it just hostilities 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:21.959 or conflict. Help me out here. I have a hard 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:23.640 time understanding the differences. 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:26.559 Called declarations of war. Remember Iraq, we were going into 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:30.640 a weapons of mass destruction and then there was regime 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:34.600 change and all the cataclysm that happened from that for 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:38.040 over a decade. A lot of echoes here, regime change, 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:41.880 undeclared war, preemptive strikes, a lot of two thousand and 0:01:41.920 --> 0:01:43.880 three echoing through this conflict. 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:48.400 Why does the US maybe have to make its presence 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:51.520 known in Iran? And I got to say all credit 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:53.160 to Tim who, like on our morning call, was saying, 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:55.560 we got to talk about the bunker Buster, give us 0:01:55.560 --> 0:01:57.240 some background on that and what we know and why 0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:02.120 that might also pull the US possibly to the conflict 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:03.200 with her. 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:06.640 On Okay, the bunker Buster is a massive ordinance penetrator. 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:09.320 It's a thirty thousand pound bomb that can only be 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:12.680 dropped from the B two stealth bomber. They are now 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:16.240 based in Whiteman Air Force Base. They were in Diego, 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:18.080 Garcia recently, but they've come back. 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:20.600 So they would have to do long. 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:24.600 Refueling missions maybe fifteen hours sixteen hours in flight one 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:28.679 way do their bombing precision bombing of the Farido en 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:32.519 Richmond facility and then probably land to Diego, Garcia. That 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:36.320 is an active war. It's not a preanmptive strike. It's 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:38.840 an active war on an enemy that we don't have 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:43.440 any that hasn't threatened the United States recently, So the 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:45.400 public has to be aware of that. But that would 0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:50.920 be the biggest, biggest contribution we can make to destroying 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:53.600 that facility. It's the only bomber that can do that, 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:56.000 and those are the only weapons that really can penetrate 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:59.360 deeply enough and they can fire. They can drop sequentially 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:03.320 behind the other and pound the living daylights out of it. 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:05.840 Unfortunately, why is it that the US is the only 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:11.160 country that has this bomb and the ability to deliver 0:03:11.560 --> 0:03:14.480 this bomb? Why has the US not shared this technology 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:16.080 with other parts of the world, with its allies. 0:03:16.880 --> 0:03:19.239 Well, A, it was secret until the number of years ago. 0:03:19.480 --> 0:03:22.000 The Pentagon is still very reticent to talk about it. 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:24.880 But b it was designed around the B two bomber, 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:27.920 the stealth bomber. You know, you can say what you 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:30.959 want about it, but it's had successful mission since its introduction. 0:03:31.400 --> 0:03:35.839 Is first attack in Serbia in the nineteenth nineteen ninety six, 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:38.880 I think it was. But it's our technology. It's a 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:44.320 developed it's a classified weapons program on a classified bomb, 0:03:45.600 --> 0:03:46.080 a bomber. 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:47.040 Excuse me, no. 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:49.640 Other nation in the world really has that capability, that 0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:52.839 platform to carry it. Now if we have sold other 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:57.200 bunker busters to Israel and the two two thousand pounds variety, 0:03:57.520 --> 0:03:59.800 but thus those can be dropped from F fifteen ease 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:02.200 and some of their other aircraft, but they can't be 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:04.839 dropped from F thirty five's Those bombs are too big 0:04:04.880 --> 0:04:05.840 for the F thirty five. 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:11.520 Your experience on this world covering the Pentagon, understanding national security? 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:15.000 When the president calls his advisors into the situation room, 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:18.200 what's the optics on that? Are there any conclusions we 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:19.839 can make? Or is it just where they go to 0:04:19.880 --> 0:04:23.440 have a safe conversation about national security issues. 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:26.200 I think the optics are that the Joint Chase of Staff, 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:28.719 their job is to present the president with not only 0:04:28.839 --> 0:04:33.360 options for military power, but the potential collateral or down 0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:37.760 the road impacts that the politicians. The politicians might not 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:41.400 have thought of. I think any talk with Trump would 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:46.520 also discuss the implications going back to Irock, remember the 0:04:46.520 --> 0:04:50.000 weapons of mass destruction. All of a sudden, the society 0:04:50.000 --> 0:04:52.440 collapsed there over two years and we were sucked into 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:55.359 a ten year conflict. I think that would resonate with 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:58.280 the White House. This President say what you want about it, 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:03.200 but he has not voiced support for long term preemptive 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:06.120 strikes and getting US sucked into Middle East wars. 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:08.800 I want to go back to the B two spirit 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:11.400 you said, it's that Whiteman Air Force Base right now. 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:15.000 Is where they're being, where they're stationed, where they're based. 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:19.920 Is it possible that these could move to a different 0:05:19.960 --> 0:05:23.960 position ahead of some sort of US military action and 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:27.640 that would indicate a certain red line that the US 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:28.239 has crossed. 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:29.760 It definitely could. 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:34.880 They could do a high profile flyaway. Basically, they're not 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:37.560 going to fly from white Men without being seen by 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:42.920 local plane watchers and then split plane tracking software which 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:44.719 may or may not be able to pick up every 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:48.239 part of a stealth bomber's flight. But people in the region, 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:50.440 in the area there, they'd be watching for these things 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:52.479 and be flying off and there would be a lot 0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:55.520 of chatter about it. But yeah, if we still flow 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:58.560 flew these two uh back to Diego Garcia, that'd be 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:01.479 a very strong signal. If we flew these to Lake 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:03.960 and Heath Air Force Base in England. That would be 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:07.320 a signal too. Those are the I mean, Diego Garcia's 0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:12.000 got the ideal location and the hangars, the hangars to 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:15.440 store these valuable airplanes. But I think the US could 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:18.760 send a real message by parading the elephants through the 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:21.120 air these b two elephants and letting the world know. 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:23.839 You're not expecting boots on the ground by the US though. 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:29.680 Well, we've got forty We've got about forty thousand airmen, 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:35.800 air women, airmen, naval and Army Navy marines in the region. 0:06:35.880 --> 0:06:38.640 It's like like four thousand or so in Iraq and 0:06:38.720 --> 0:06:42.679 another two thousand or so in Syria, all for the 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:46.080 counter ISIS campaign. But I'm not expecting more boots on 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:47.160 the ground, if that's what you mean. 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:49.480 Okay, you said four or forty. 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:54.520 Forty thousand in the region, Okay, to twenty five hundred 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:57.839 in i Rock, Okay, and about two thousand in Syria. 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:02.560 So the forty thousand would include airman in various bases 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:05.440 around the region. We had many bases, and then the 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:08.560 naval forces, so that'd be the cumulative all right. 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:10.400 Thank you so much. Can't even tell you how much 0:07:10.400 --> 0:07:14.120 we appreciate it. Tony as always Tony Capacio. He's Washington, 0:07:14.520 --> 0:07:18.240 DC's man on the ground when it comes to the 0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:21.800 Pentagon and national security issues, joining us from our bureau. 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:22.960 They are so appreciated. 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:27.200 You are listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily Podcast. Catch 0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:30.520 us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern 0:07:30.680 --> 0:07:33.720 Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:36.480 Business app, or watch US live on YouTube. 0:07:37.760 --> 0:07:39.920 In the meantime, we got some headlines this morning, and 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:42.040 it had to do with the retail sector here in 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:45.160 the United States. US retail sales falling for a second 0:07:45.200 --> 0:07:49.920 straight month in May, suggesting some anxiety over tariffs and 0:07:50.080 --> 0:07:53.760 also finances, prompting maybe consumers to pull back a bit 0:07:54.000 --> 0:07:57.000 after an early year spending rush. US retail sales. Here's 0:07:57.040 --> 0:08:00.240 the data, zero point nine percent to the downside month 0:08:00.280 --> 0:08:02.920 of May. That's the largest decline since the start of 0:08:02.920 --> 0:08:06.640 the year, with seven of thirteen categories tim posting declines. 0:08:06.760 --> 0:08:09.080 We've got a trusted a voice on retail, somebody who's 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:12.160 analyzed this area through multiple cycles and gets into the 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:14.960 details like no one else. The founder, CEO and Chief 0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:18.000 Research Officer of Telsey Advisory Group, Dana Telsea here in 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:20.680 our Bloomberg BusinessWeek studio. I want to start with the 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:24.080 big picture data data. The data that we got earlier today, 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:27.120 the largest decline since the start of the year. Obviously, 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:29.560 people not buying cars has a lot to do with this, 0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:33.160 But is it proof that tariffs do affect the way 0:08:33.280 --> 0:08:34.960 that customers think about buying things? 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:37.400 So a couple things you have, Yes, it was one 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:39.520 of the weakest months. You look at cars, which were 0:08:39.600 --> 0:08:42.520 the real weak link. It's twenty percent of retail sales. 0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:44.679 You've seen some of the other data points where the 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:48.720 sporting goods department stores frankly did a touch better. I 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:51.559 think overall the pull forward of sales, I think we're 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:54.000 seeing some of that. We put out a tracker every 0:08:54.080 --> 0:08:57.040 Tuesday of eighty items and how the prices have changed. 0:08:57.200 --> 0:08:59.040 We've done this for nine weeks now, We're going to 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:01.440 continue to do it. We haven't seen much change in 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:05.480 prices yet. Expectations are second half of July into back 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:08.400 to school is when you'll see the price upticks and 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:11.320 when you speak to companies it'll more be on some 0:09:11.440 --> 0:09:13.600 of the goods that are newer and have more product 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:16.400 or make or embellishment in them. Essentials are going to 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:20.080 be watched very carefully. The phrasing is surgical and select 0:09:20.120 --> 0:09:23.880 items where there are price increases. That's where it will happen. 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:27.280 It won't be across everything, but the mood and the sentiment. 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:30.680 Look at the numbers you got Friday from the Sentiment Index. 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:34.080 Those are better than expected. A little surprising given the 0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:36.640 headwinds that you're seeing in some of the services. The 0:09:36.760 --> 0:09:39.640 restaurant numbers certainly continue to show a downturn. 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:42.280 So yeah, so add it up for us, like you've 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:44.839 seen cycles, you've seen stress points that we have gone through, 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:47.440 whether you know Great Financial Crisis, COVID, like, there's a 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:50.480 lot of things. How would you describe the retail environment? 0:09:50.559 --> 0:09:52.120 And I know it's hard to throw everything in one 0:09:52.160 --> 0:09:53.800 bucket because there's so many different verticals. 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:56.440 I think right now it's more uncertain the change that's 0:09:56.480 --> 0:10:00.120 different this retail environment than others. Even luxury has come down, 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:03.760 even your luck, so your high income spender isn't spending 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:06.080 in the same magnitude, and you don't have the flood 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.360 of tourists that have come to the United States like 0:10:08.400 --> 0:10:11.240 you had in the past to buy those discretionary items. 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:15.440 You're still seeing essentials grocery. That's where the consumer is spending. 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:18.760 They'll spend selectively on some services, but take a look. 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:22.520 We've seen airfares, Loo, Corojet Blue today talk about reduced demand. 0:10:22.880 --> 0:10:25.240 So how I added up is it feels a little 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:28.520 bit more uncertain because of the volatility, and it's not 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:33.360 complete down trends across the board. It's very selective and 0:10:33.440 --> 0:10:36.120 I think could it come yes, I think it's more 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:38.319 let's go into the summer, through the second half of 0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:41.320 the summer and see what these price increases are. But 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:44.240 there's more concern over slowing than growing. 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:47.199 It's interesting that you brought in tourism here, especially when 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:49.959 it comes to retail. I'm wondering on the other side 0:10:50.000 --> 0:10:52.640 of things, we've heard from executives and companies, including Coca 0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:57.000 Cola that the crackdown on immigration is actually affecting their sales. 0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:00.640 I'm wondering from a retail environment, is the ice on 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:04.120 undocumented immigrants weighing on sales for any retailers out there 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:06.960 at this point. People being afraid to shop, people afraid 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:07.520 to go out. 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:09.439 That sort of and you think about it for restaurants 0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:12.319 in terms of the workers working in restaurants, you've certainly 0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:14.960 seen it some of the low end points and the retailers. 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:18.800 It's interesting that the dollar stores performed okay, so that's 0:11:18.840 --> 0:11:21.600 where you would think you would, yeah, right, show up, 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:24.439 but it hasn't shown up there as much. And also 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:28.280 you look at Walmart. Walmart's sales were better than expected, so. 0:11:28.280 --> 0:11:30.240 We are seeing I hate to say trading down. I 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:32.520 feel so like not nice, but I just feel like 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:34.840 maybe just people are being smart right, I'm looking for 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:35.280 the best. 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:37.920 Bar they are trading down. Look where Walmart has talked 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:41.319 about the biggest growth coming from is their highest income consumer. 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:43.920 You've seen it from others. Look at TJ Max on 0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:46.560 the off price side, You've seen what they have and 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:49.760 they're an umbrella for pricing, so they'll always be lower 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:51.319 than everyone else. And I think they're going to be 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:53.680 a beneficiary as we go through the back half of 0:11:53.679 --> 0:11:54.000 the year. 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:57.240 When you and I spoke earlier this spring, you mentioned 0:11:57.280 --> 0:11:59.960 that we could be seeing some empty shelves later this year. 0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:03.280 Has that materialized in anything that you cover and is 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:04.960 that still a possibility. 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:08.560 It's a possibility. It hasn't materialized yet because the goods 0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:11.280 that are on the shelves right now, there's still some 0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:15.199 of the lower cost goods. Ordering for holiday is happening 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:18.559 right now, and it would show up frankly first when 0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:20.800 you get to the holiday season. But you know what, 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:25.000 you have TJX buyers overseas in China right now looking 0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:28.120 to take over and take control of and acquire those 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:30.440 canceled items. So go to the off pricers. 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:33.600 Yeah, kind of fascinating. Well, you know, and I just wonder, 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:36.760 you know, ultimately in terms of supply chains, right, we 0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:39.760 talked about so much of that because of the tariffs, Dana. 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:42.960 When you think about you know, clothes and things like that, 0:12:43.160 --> 0:12:45.920 I mean, it's already been moving away from China, correct, Like, 0:12:45.960 --> 0:12:49.160 give me some perspective on where all of the stuff 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:51.760 that we are wearing, where it really is manufacting and where. 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:53.960 Things are coming from. Yes, they've all looked to reduce 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:59.160 their exposure to China. Vietnam has been very popular. Mexico, Cambodia, 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:02.400 Brazil hard to come back into North America and the 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:06.120 US given the high labor costs, but it's been Mexico, 0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:09.680 it's been Vietnam it's been Brazil and Cambodia that we 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.319 hear goods are going towards. How much is still made 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:16.520 in China depends on which type or retail retailer. Everyone 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:19.640 is trying to get to single digits. No one wants 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:21.600 to stick there at double digits. 0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:24.800 Was that happening ahead of It's been. 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:27.760 Happening since the last time we had tariffs. Everyone had 0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:30.880 accelerated it. But keep in mind one of the beneficies 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:34.400 of China labor costs are compelling, and the make that 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:37.559 they put into the product and the expertise is faster 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:41.600 and better than others. As a long time sourcing executive 0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:44.000 always tells me, there's no China like China. 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:45.240 Wow, Okay, but. 0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:47.360 It seems like Dana, at least for President Trump. It 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:49.520 doesn't matter if it's made in China or it's made 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:52.400 in Vietnam. It's not made in the US. It's going 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:54.240 to be hit with a tariff. Yes, So how are 0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:55.280 retailers dealing with that? 0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:58.000 They'll raise prices on some selective goods, and it's a 0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:01.079 third to third, a third, a third, they'll verify their sourcing, 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:04.160 a third, they'll share the cost of the manufacture and 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:06.960 a third, they'll raise prices on select goods to the 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:07.560 end consumer. 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:10.560 When you say select goods, do you mean obviously it's 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:12.880 we can't put them all in the same bucket. 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:15.000 Higher price goods, higher price. 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:17.440 Goods because the consumer has a higher willingness to pay 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:18.439 because it's. 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:21.680 New and different. It's something that isn't a basic okay, which. 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:23.920 Makes me wonder like which companies are going to see 0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:27.040 it hurt in terms of their balance sheets on that 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.720 you know, first quarter retail sales. Right, we've seen all 0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:32.000 these numbers, So which names do you think stand out 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:33.880 really is the biggest winners? Which are the biggest loser. 0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:34.440 You look at. 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:38.520 Birkenstock with their closed toad shoes, very popular, still doing 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:41.720 really well. I think that there's definitely some moment in there. 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:45.520 You look at Tapestry with the Coach brand. They've been excelling. 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:47.760 They've been able to get better prices on some of 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:50.920 their goods. You look at Ralph Lauren who's been expanding 0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:54.040 their purview in terms of the demographics that they appeal 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:56.640 to and it's been working for them. And then you 0:14:56.720 --> 0:15:00.440 still see the value players, like the discounters and like 0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:02.120 the off pricers continue to win. 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:04.000 Okay, who doesn't too well. 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:07.080 We've seen some of the women's apparel retailers be slow, 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:10.160 haven't been able to execute as well. It's definitely been 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:13.400 more challenging. You just had the announcement yesterday of at 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:17.320 Home filing for bankruptcy again. But these empty boxes are 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:20.080 being taken by a lot of the dollar stores and 0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:23.000 the off price retailers. The off prices are each opening 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:24.120 one hundred stores a year. 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:28.280 Data before we let you go, our companies, our retailers 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:32.200 are afraid to communicate two customers that prices are going up 0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:34.160 as a result of tariffs, given what we saw from 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.960 the White House pushing back on Amazon and on Wiemart. 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:39.560 Yes, I think you do have that, and I think 0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:44.160 that's why the phrasing and the wording select surgical price increases, 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:46.680 and it's not across the board. Look at our price 0:15:46.720 --> 0:15:48.760 tracker every Tuesday and you'll see what changes. 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.440 All right, So second half should be interesting. 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:54.320 Very interesting. Want to see that back to school time period. 0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:57.680 Back to school typically is a pathway to the upcoming 0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:00.880 holiday season. Look what it was just announced today that 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:03.960 Amazon's Prime day is going to be ninety six hours, 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.400 four days longer length. Let's see consumer response, all. 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:10.400 Right, fascinating stuff. Always always appreciate the deep dove. Thank 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:12.880 you very much. Dana Telsey of course, she's the founder, CEO, 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:15.600 and Research officer of Telsey Advisory Group. Joining us right 0:16:15.640 --> 0:16:16.560 here in studio. 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:21.880 This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:24.880 each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car 0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:27.960 Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:31.160 can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:34.800 New York station, just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty 0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:37.040 two giant. 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:39.600 Ocean going tankers collided and caught fire off the coast 0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:42.520 of the United Arab Emirates near the Strait of Harmu's 0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:46.600 energy choke points. Separately to vessels were approached by Iranian 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:49.680 boats near the strait in the last thirty six hours, 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:52.960 which is noteworthy, of course, during all of the tensions 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:55.000 we are seeing in the region now, the incident did 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:58.440 rattle global oil and shipping markets with forward freight agreements, 0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:02.000 rallying and oil tank are they served more than fifty 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.359 percent due tim to the increased tensions. 0:17:04.680 --> 0:17:06.520 Yeah, the Israeli wrong conflict on the radar of the 0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:09.159 global shipping industry, and that's exactly where we want to 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:14.040 go right now. Stas Stemmatist Santanas as chairman and CEO 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:17.960 of the publicly held global shipping company Senergy Maritime. The 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:22.520 ticker is SAHIP. Also United Maritime USAA is the ticker 0:17:22.640 --> 0:17:25.840 United was spun off from Synergy back in twenty twenty two. 0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:28.280 Stamata is good to have you back in the Bloomberg 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:31.359 BusinessWeek studio here in New York. Last time you joined 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:34.520 us was a few months ago. The conflict between Iran 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:37.960 and Israel was I think not on anybody's radar at 0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:40.960 this at that point. What is the backdrop right now 0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:42.320 given the regional conflict? 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:44.920 Well, thank you for having me once again. It's great 0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:47.159 to be here. Well, I mean, I don't know what 0:17:47.200 --> 0:17:49.359 to say. I mean, every other month you have a 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:53.440 different situation coming up. We started with the Reussian invasion 0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:55.840 to the Ukraine, and then we had the Red Sea 0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:58.520 who it is? And now we have this so you know, 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:02.480 every little certain that comes up, it's great for you. 0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:04.840 A little uncertainty or is it something more significant? 0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:07.960 It's I want to be confident. I want to stay 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:12.159 like very very optimistic that nothing you know, not a 0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:15.080 wider war is going to go around, but it's certainly, 0:18:15.160 --> 0:18:17.040 you know, one of the situations where we have to 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:18.520 be really cautious about. 0:18:18.720 --> 0:18:22.040 Have you had to change the routes of any of 0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:24.240 your ships as a result of this contract. 0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:24.760 Absolutely. 0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:26.600 I mean we were going through the Red Sea all 0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:30.040 the time, connecting let's say Australia to Europe and all that. 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:32.280 Now we have to go around the Cape of Good Hope. 0:18:32.359 --> 0:18:34.760 So that has added a lot to the tone mile effect, 0:18:35.119 --> 0:18:37.359 and of course the pollution. Because you do more miles, 0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:40.439 you emit more co twos, it's more expensive for the 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:43.640 consumers you go longer distance. So the answer is yes, 0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:46.160 I mean, every little thing that happens or bigger thing, 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:47.600 it's good for rates. 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:49.320 But but for the Earth, I guess. 0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:51.399 Do you see it getting worse in the Strait of 0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:54.040 Horn Moves anytime in the near future. I know you 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:56.879 said you're optimistic, and you're optimistic by nature, but that's 0:18:56.960 --> 0:18:59.280 a real energy choke point. As Carol mentioned, I. 0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:01.879 Want to believe that this nothing serious is going to happen, 0:19:01.920 --> 0:19:04.160 and the collision you had today is not. 0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:05.800 Actually a product of wars. 0:19:05.800 --> 0:19:08.359 It's the shadow fleet, you know, the shadow fleet has 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:10.840 been going around since the Russian invasion, and you have 0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:14.800 all these undocumented and shadow ships going around, and it's 0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:17.280 like a danger and it's only a miracle that we 0:19:17.320 --> 0:19:20.080 haven't seen more of these things happening because of the 0:19:20.119 --> 0:19:20.800 shadow fleet. 0:19:20.960 --> 0:19:22.480 It's forgiving. 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:25.359 Yeah, that's a product of the previous war, not like 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:25.840 this war. 0:19:25.960 --> 0:19:27.920 Now, how are you, as someone right who's got to 0:19:27.920 --> 0:19:31.040 watch these things so closely determine like or think about, Okay, 0:19:31.200 --> 0:19:33.320 this is not such a big issue, this could be 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:34.439 something more substantial. 0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:35.680 Well, we try to. 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:38.800 Be prepared, I mean, except for the insurance and stuff. 0:19:39.320 --> 0:19:42.479 Whenever we see like any conflict arising, we don't want 0:19:42.520 --> 0:19:45.480 to put the risk health risk of our crews, of 0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:48.000 our people, so we just stay out of that. And 0:19:48.640 --> 0:19:51.280 we're lucky to have partnered with some of the world's 0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:54.120