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Speaker 1: Twenty twenty four election coverage is brought to you by AMAC.

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Speaker 2: If we can write that down, my ever crack production staff.

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Speaker 2: Write it down, guys, and I'll read it. Commonwealth of Virginia.

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Speaker 2: Let's go overall?

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Speaker 3: Where do we say?

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Speaker 2: And then John I wants you to talk about Virginia

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Speaker 2: seven and Virginia three.

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Speaker 4: Sure, overall, we have an eight point spread with now

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Speaker 4: twenty two percent of the votes. And though I think

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Speaker 4: it has just went down to now a seven point

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Speaker 4: spread from the last minute that we spoke with, I

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Speaker 4: think for votes in coming from Fairfax County, a lot

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Speaker 4: of loud.

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Speaker 3: Heavy, that's heavy. That's heavy blue. That's that's that's not bad.

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Speaker 3: But we got to look the theory.

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Speaker 2: The case here is she's gonna have a tough night

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Speaker 2: if that number gets below five, and it's like it's

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Speaker 2: going to take them longer to call it later in

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Speaker 2: the evening. A seven to eight point spread is different.

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Speaker 2: But they look like they're now drawing from some of

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Speaker 2: the big blue counties around the PENTAGONA.

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Speaker 5: This point of the night in twenty twenty, Biden was

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Speaker 5: up about eleven and a half if I remember, maybe

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Speaker 5: twelve right around eight o'clock so she's a little bit underperforming.

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Speaker 6: Again.

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Speaker 5: Again, we're seeing this all across the country where there

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Speaker 5: are real vote turns, so you're seeing that. The race

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Speaker 5: I'm using as a bell weather for the whole country

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Speaker 5: is Virginia seven.

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Speaker 6: We've talked about it a lot. It's the Vinmin race.

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Speaker 5: With about twenty percent of the voting, which is mostly

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Speaker 5: early vote and some early urban vote. It's only a

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Speaker 5: three point race. That's not bad for Republicans. That district

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Speaker 5: gets a little redd or as the night goes on,

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Speaker 5: so that's a real close race. It's kind of what

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Speaker 5: Republicans wanted to see in terms of gauging their ability

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Speaker 5: to hold the House. The next twenty thirty percent will

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Speaker 5: give us a really good sense. If that widens out

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Speaker 5: a lot, then it's going to be okay for Vinmin.

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Speaker 5: If it stays tight with the rural vote that comes

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Speaker 5: in later, it'll be a good night for Republicans everywhere,

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Speaker 5: not just in Virginia. So Virginia's, you know, kind of

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Speaker 5: trending where everybody else is trending, just like Guam and

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Speaker 5: the other places. Kamala Harris is so far underperforming where

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Speaker 5: Joe Biden was at this point and not not by

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Speaker 5: you know, double digits, but by enough to catch your attention.

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Speaker 3: Do we have Virginia three? Have we looked at Virginia three.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, there's very little voting that I've seen there, but

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Speaker 5: that's going to give us a good sense of the

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Speaker 5: black vote. But I have I have not seen a

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Speaker 5: whole lot of vote. Let me all check that and

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Speaker 5: keep working on that. But thus far it looked like

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Speaker 5: maybe eleven percent, So it's pretty low.

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Speaker 3: Fulton County reporting.

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Speaker 2: In Georgia, Trump is to performing two points better, still

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Speaker 2: under thirty but anything helps in there if you get talking.

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Speaker 4: That's right overall thirty five percent of votes and in

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Speaker 4: Georgia with Trump up by eleven.

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Speaker 2: Trump up by eleven this so they should in what

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Speaker 2: part of Georgia is that coming from?

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Speaker 4: Is that that's with fifty two percent of votes from

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Speaker 4: Fulton County in Wow, I.

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Speaker 3: Got to tell you, John, Georgia might be called a

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Speaker 3: lot earlier than we think.

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Speaker 5: I think, so that kind of spread and what we

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Speaker 5: know from also, they count everything tonight. You're not going

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Speaker 5: to have overtiming. They got to get it done tonight

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Speaker 5: under the state law.

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Speaker 6: And they tried to mean that I actually have to

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Speaker 6: do that. Yeah, no ballots can come in after tonight.

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Speaker 2: Right now, so it can't be any funny business that

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Speaker 2: we got.

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Speaker 3: We should have run tonight, Mark Serrano.

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Speaker 2: I want to go back over to the real American

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Speaker 2: Voice headquarters.

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Speaker 3: What do you got for us?

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Speaker 7: And then give me those states? Yeah we got.

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Speaker 8: First of all, let me go to Virginia three. Steve,

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Speaker 8: as you're discussing, Uh, there's not enough of the vote

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Speaker 8: really yet to show, but there's eight percent of the

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Speaker 8: vote is in so far.

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Speaker 7: And let's go to Virginia three.

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Speaker 8: Virginia three, all right, and it's right now, Scott seventy

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Speaker 8: one over six at twenty eight.

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Speaker 7: Let's go to Virginia seven.

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Speaker 8: Steve as well, just so to reinforce we were saying

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Speaker 8: thirty four percent of the vote in fifty seven to

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Speaker 8: forty two.

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Speaker 7: Vinman's leading right now now.

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Speaker 8: In terms of states that have been called for Donald

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Speaker 8: Trump since we've been talking, You've got Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama,

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Speaker 8: South Carolina, and Tennessee. They are all called for Donald

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Speaker 8: Trump at this hour right now.

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Speaker 3: Steve, okay, good.

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Speaker 2: What about by the way, Matt Gates, a great friend

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Speaker 2: of the show, has just won in Florida one. Now,

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Speaker 2: Solomon McCarthy came after him in the primary, but the

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Speaker 2: Democrats also put serious money in this to try to

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Speaker 2: beat him.

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Speaker 3: Is Gates pretty bulletproof down there?

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Speaker 6: Now?

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Speaker 3: You think you see?

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Speaker 5: I think he was bulletproof no matter what the dispute

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Speaker 5: was between him and because long as President Trump didn't

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Speaker 5: leave Matt Gates corner, Matt Gates was going to be safe.

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Speaker 5: And he's been effective in the last few months in

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Speaker 5: communicating important issues that maybe Republicans didn't own in the past.

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Speaker 5: And I think he's going to be in Congress a

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Speaker 5: long time. I'm sure down the road he'll be a

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Speaker 5: guy looking at governor Senate if he keeps his record up.

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Speaker 5: He's starting to build a political machinery in addition to

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Speaker 5: a national fundraising base. But Gates winning and Gates winning

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Speaker 5: big there not a surprise, but good for the magabase

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Speaker 5: in terms of how are our stars performing tonight? And

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Speaker 5: that's farther they're performing pretty well.

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Speaker 3: Let's go back to Virginia seven. That's fifty seven forty two.

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Speaker 6: It's widened out with a urban vote. There's only three points.

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Speaker 5: It widened out with some urban vote, so it's starting

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Speaker 5: to look like a traditional Virginia seven the last three

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Speaker 5: races where the Democrat is about this match out with

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Speaker 5: about thirty five percent of the vote.

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Speaker 6: But let's see how how they do now.

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Speaker 2: Decision Desk has just told us, with what they're seeing

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Speaker 2: in the House races, they think that we have a

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Speaker 2: sixty we have a two thirds percentage chance to hold

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Speaker 2: the House.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that the Vinmin.

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Speaker 2: Situation is worse news than we imagined this early night.

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Speaker 2: Two things are in Hamilton County in Indiana, which you

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Speaker 2: said is going to show later in the.

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Speaker 3: Evening more the red red vote coming in.

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Speaker 2: And this situation in Virginia seven, which is a real

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Speaker 2: bell weather for taking the house.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, because that that is.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's down by Spotsylvania Courthouse, right down to

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Speaker 2: the Principaliam Prince William L. Weather County, Purple County, down

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Speaker 2: down the ninety five, halfway between just north of Fredericksburg,

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Speaker 2: halfway between.

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Speaker 3: Washington, ZC. And Richmond.

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Speaker 2: Does that concern you right now? That looks like Vinman

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Speaker 2: is starting to get a bigger.

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Speaker 5: Stuzz because you know it was at three percent of

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Speaker 5: twenty then thirty three percent, it goes up sending. What

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Speaker 5: it means is that blue urban areas always come in

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Speaker 5: quicker and then the rural and suburban area is filling

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Speaker 5: over the course of the night. If it gets up

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Speaker 5: over twenty, it's going to be hard for the fifty

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Speaker 5: percent of the vote for the Republicans to win that seat.

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Speaker 6: But that's going to tighten up a lot.

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Speaker 5: It's you know, it's kind of running like it's been

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Speaker 5: the last few years, which is very tight and close.

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Speaker 5: We'll see, you know, God, the Democrats dump so much money.

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Speaker 5: You could not watch a football game without seeing geene

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Speaker 5: Vinman thirty times in the course of three hours.

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Speaker 6: My son, who's autistic, the sweet kids like I can't

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Speaker 6: watch as anybody walked out. He's like, I'm done with

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Speaker 6: this and they just bumped carpet bombing. But we'll see

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Speaker 6: you did you right? Yeah, it was kind of intolerable.

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Speaker 3: Mark Serrano. They just called Missouri for President Trump.

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Speaker 2: Any other updates that we have anything on Pennsylvania, any

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Speaker 2: early reporting out of there, Yes.

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Speaker 8: Sir, no, but you know, as you were, we got

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Speaker 8: Missouri for Donald Trump. At this point, still trickling in

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Speaker 8: from Pennsylvania, still trickling in from Georgia. You know, as

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Speaker 8: you said, obviously that's leaning Donald Trump's way, but they've

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Speaker 8: only got twenty to thirty percent being reported thus far.

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Speaker 7: Right now, we.

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Speaker 8: Do have a lot of states coming up that are

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Speaker 8: going to be called Steve, pull up that hours right now, please,

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Speaker 8: you know it's we're now at eight oh seven Eastern time, Steve,

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Speaker 8: and we've got eighteen states, eighteen new states. Their polls

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Speaker 8: are closing at eight o'clock Eastern times. You've got the

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Speaker 8: northeastern states. You've got a lot of states in Midwest

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Speaker 8: country where the polls are closing, but there are still

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Speaker 8: poles that are open heading west, you know, from the Mississippi,

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Speaker 8: and even some that are still east of the Mississippi.

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Speaker 8: We need people to get to the polls. As you

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Speaker 8: can see from the map here, Steve, we've got all

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Speaker 8: these states Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Illinois, the Dakotas. Those

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Speaker 8: are all polls closing at eight o'clock, including Michigan and

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Speaker 8: Pennsylvania and the northeast right here. So we have a

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Speaker 8: bevy of states coming up. A lot of information is

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Speaker 8: going to start flowing in because these poles are starting

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Speaker 8: to close now.

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Speaker 7: I think at this point half.

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Speaker 8: The country, the polls have closed, voting has stopped.

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Speaker 2: Okay, let's go to do you have the map for

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Speaker 2: North Carolina weather reporting or here.

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Speaker 3: There, I'm hearing some chatt that North Carolina may actually

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Speaker 3: be may actually go Democratic, and give me a results

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Speaker 3: anything we're seeing right there.

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Speaker 2: Mark Sarona, can you get the map up of North Carolina.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, we're working on that, Steve.

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Speaker 8: We're going to pull up the map of North Carolina

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Speaker 8: and we're going to get our current data for the

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Speaker 8: presidential Will we get right back.

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Speaker 4: To seven percent of votes in Harris up by eleven?

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Speaker 3: Okay, home on to the voting only. I think some

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Speaker 3: of the leagues, I think some of the league counties said, look,

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Speaker 3: if she wins North Carolina.

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Speaker 2: That is a major shift in tonight because they chang

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Speaker 2: changes the whole dynamic because it gives her multiple options.

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Speaker 2: Right now, she's been blocked out in the early the

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Speaker 2: polling was, Hey, we're going to get North Carolina.

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Speaker 3: Although we had the problem in the western part of

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Speaker 3: the state.

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Speaker 2: If she can take North Carolina, right, this opens up

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Speaker 2: many more options for ours.

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Speaker 3: This makes Nevada more important than ever.

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Speaker 2: This makes obviously Pennsylvania very important.

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Speaker 3: She wins North Carol.

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Speaker 2: She wins North Carolina in Pennsylvania, it's going to be fret.

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Speaker 6: I've got a little bit.

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Speaker 5: I've just been communicating with a couple of Democrats who

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Speaker 5: are pretty well versed in politics in Pennsylvania. They're not

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Speaker 5: very feeling good about Kamala Harris's chances in Pennsylvania. They

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Speaker 5: feel like they underperformed on the day of vote. Now,

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Speaker 5: they also say Republicans maybe didn't turn out as much

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Speaker 5: on day of vote as they needed, but Kamala Harris

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Speaker 5: needed to have a baffo turnout. Today, the Democrats saying,

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Speaker 5: it doesn't appear to look like she met the thresholds

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Speaker 5: they needed to win that state.

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Speaker 6: Now, that's just a.

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Speaker 5: Couple of Democrats who've been in Pennsylvania thirty years. They

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Speaker 5: know the state well, but they're not feeling very good

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Speaker 5: at pole clothes here.

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Speaker 6: So we'll have to watch that state as the night.

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Speaker 3: As the night rolls, you're saying, give me that again.

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Speaker 3: You're saying Democrats, you know, are not.

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Speaker 5: Being Pennsylvania machine politic. Democrats people who know how to

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Speaker 5: count heads, who have been exit at prognosticating Pennsylvania. The

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Speaker 5: last ten twelve years for me, say that Kama Harris

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Speaker 5: is not performing where she needs to to have captured

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Speaker 5: that state. Now, it's early and when the vote overlays

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Speaker 5: what they see from the exit polling. But their assessment

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Speaker 5: of the turnout and blue in Philadelphia Black Philadelphia precincts

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Speaker 5: not where.

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Speaker 6: They thought it needed to be.

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Speaker 5: The suburban vote, they don't think it's going to break

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Speaker 5: the way they thought it would. And they haven't made

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Speaker 5: up in the other areas of the country. They were

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Speaker 5: really making a big push at the end for Puerto

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Speaker 5: Rican voters in Pennsylvania, but they're not seeing a major

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Speaker 5: shift yet now. But for Democrats to feel lousy about

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Speaker 5: their probably state, the one they put sixty eighty one

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Speaker 5: hundred million dollars into in the last month, that's a

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Speaker 5: sign of maybe what Kamala Harris is seeing nationwide. We'll

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Speaker 5: keep your breast on that. That's two very knowledgeable Democrats,

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Speaker 5: So that texted me. So it's a sign that they're

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Speaker 5: seeing a little bit of underperformance received.

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Speaker 3: Look, the battlegrounds were still in play. Georgia is obviously still.

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Speaker 2: In place, Arizona, Nevada, these are going to be very

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Speaker 2: close it's already breaking out though that North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan,

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Speaker 2: Pennsylvania is where this thing could be decided, all right,

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Speaker 2: particularly of North Conine. People understand, it looked like over

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Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks her multiple paths to potential

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Speaker 2: victory were cut off, and principally because it looked like

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Speaker 2: North Carolina had slipped away from President Trump did change

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Speaker 2: his schedule and go back to North con over and

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Speaker 2: over again as she did so they were sensing both

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Speaker 2: groups were sensing something wrong.

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Speaker 3: But let's say North Carolina. Maybe maybe now, if.

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Speaker 2: North Carolina goes to Harris, the BTTOM line is she's

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Speaker 2: got that opens up.

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Speaker 3: She does not have to run the table on the

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Speaker 3: blue Wall which said.

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Speaker 5: Right now Trump will have to win at least two

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Speaker 5: blue wall state. Its like you are taking Nevada in

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Speaker 5: a blue wall in Arizona pretty heavily.

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Speaker 6: But I'm not getting It'd be.

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Speaker 5: Interesting to see the people I'm talking to in North

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Speaker 5: Carolina right now still feel good about it. The vote

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Speaker 5: is coming in a little bit differently than it did

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Speaker 5: in twenty twenty two because of the voting machines are

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Speaker 5: a little slower in the West, but I'm told don't

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Speaker 5: panic on North Carolina yet, that the projections are still okay.

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Speaker 3: North Carolina has always been a it's always.

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Speaker 6: A panic state.

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Speaker 3: It's always tough.

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Speaker 6: We've won a Democratic governor.

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Speaker 2: But remember we won in sixteen and we won again

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Speaker 2: in twenty in off that was only swing state, battlegrone state.

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Speaker 3: We officially usually won.

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Speaker 2: Okay, short commercial break back to Rilla Murk, who's voice

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Speaker 2: in a moment?

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Speaker 3: Okay, welcome back. We're gonna try to get.

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Speaker 2: Richard Barriss up here in a moment, but let's go

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Speaker 2: to we got some news coming out of North Carolina.

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Speaker 3: Would that be?

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Speaker 5: D Early tallies are coming in the final battle accounts,

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Speaker 5: and they overlay the projections for North Carolina. North Carolina

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Speaker 5: right now looks like Republicans won the early vote by

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Speaker 5: one point one percent. Last time they lost it by

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Speaker 5: about six percent, So they're out performing twenty twenty on

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Speaker 5: early vote.

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Speaker 6: The good excuse me, I joke there, I guess you concerned.

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Speaker 5: Tonight has always been about the day of vote because

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Speaker 5: of the hurricane damage. But the projection models from someone

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Speaker 5: I've talked to who's got a good access to the

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Speaker 5: polls or that it's running a classic Republican night in

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Speaker 5: North Carolina for day of vote. So if that holds,

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Speaker 5: if you're one point one up in the early vote,

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Speaker 5: which you haven't been in prior years, and you bring

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Speaker 5: out predominantly your your day of vote, you're going to

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Speaker 5: be fine. I don't know of anyone yet that's panicking

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Speaker 5: in the in the state that I'm talking to, But

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Speaker 5: at least early voting has been a victory for Republicans

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Speaker 5: that as the numbers have been delivered by the Secretary

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Speaker 5: of State.

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Speaker 3: You've got some updates there.

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Speaker 4: Randolph County, which has been viewed as a bell Weather county,

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Speaker 4: it's sixty percent black. I believe it looks like Trump

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Speaker 4: is closing in on Harris.

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Speaker 3: It's a split of fifty forty nine.

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Speaker 7: Wow.

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Speaker 3: Oh give me that again. That's very important.

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Speaker 7: That's important.

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Speaker 4: Randolph County, one of the bell Weather predominantly flat county

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Speaker 4: is the split. It looks like he was likely similar

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Speaker 4: to Duval type takeover.

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Speaker 3: Potentially overtake her.

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Speaker 6: Wow.

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Speaker 4: There, But NBC News did just call the governor's race

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Speaker 4: for Josh Stein over Mark Robinson.

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Speaker 3: But has Mark Robinson been a big drag on Donald Trump?

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Speaker 6: A little bit.

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Speaker 3: Mark Robinson's a good guy. I know him, but obviously this.

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Speaker 5: Campaign, his campaign sort of lost its momentum in September

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Speaker 5: with the allegations and even if they turn.

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Speaker 3: Up, which he never really refuted, I mean, no he did.

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Speaker 3: That's kind of dragged on. It was a it was

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Speaker 3: a sod, but he didn't refute him.

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Speaker 2: It was a hitch ob by seeing in you can

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Speaker 2: it doesn't matter, Yeah, you didn't get in there and

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Speaker 2: really kind of thought it his opponent got a gap there.

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Speaker 3: Do you think that hurd Trump in North Carolina?

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Speaker 5: I don't think so because and similarly, in twenty twenty,

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Speaker 5: you had the top of the Democrat governor ticket under

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Speaker 5: performing Trump by a large margin. So it would be

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Speaker 5: inconsistent for a second consecutive election for people to split

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Speaker 5: their ticket. And I think Joshlyin is running a little

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Speaker 5: bit behind Cooper's Roy Cooper's last election, So that's kind

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Speaker 5: of interesting too. We'll see that would suggest that black

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Speaker 5: votes down maybe a little bit in North Carolina. It'll

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Speaker 5: be interesting. Just waiting for a couple by North Carolina

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Speaker 5: people to give me another update. But you know, justin

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Speaker 5: winning not a surprise at all that he was up

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Speaker 5: ten points in the polls. I think the place to

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Speaker 5: watch now is when the black vote comes in from

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Speaker 5: those urban areas.

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Speaker 6: Is it up from Joe Biden or down from Joe Biden.

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Speaker 5: Remember, Kawall Harris would have to overperform Joe Biden with

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Speaker 5: the black vote in North Carolina to capture the state.

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Speaker 5: So it's not something that's looking that way right now.

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Speaker 5: But we'll keep a very close eye on Steve, because

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Speaker 5: you're right, it changes the entire electoral math tonight. It

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Speaker 5: changes the entire game board in a very short period

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Speaker 5: of time.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna get Matt Boyle of Breitbart's got a lot

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Speaker 2: to report.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna get Matt up in a second, anything.

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Speaker 4: Else and to call the judge has just ordered those

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Speaker 4: precincts that were subject to the bomb threat hoax potentially

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Speaker 4: to stay open later.

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Speaker 3: So they finally got have they given a time? Is

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Speaker 3: going to be all night?

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Speaker 9: It'll be.

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Speaker 3: Let's got to tell you.

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Speaker 2: Let's get Matt bowl in here from Breitbart national political

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Speaker 2: editor running the Breitbart site tonight. Matt ran it in sixteen.

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Speaker 2: In fact, Matt, you were with me in sixteen and

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Speaker 2: also in twenty you ran it two you've been doing

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Speaker 2: this a while, give us enough d people are a

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Speaker 2: little nervous about North Carolina and they're not feeling all

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Speaker 2: that comfortable about Georgia right now.

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Speaker 3: Your assessment, yeah.

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Speaker 10: I don't necessarily agree with that.

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Speaker 11: What we're seeing across the board is very good signs

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Speaker 11: for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 10: Obviously, the state of Florida was called.

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Speaker 11: As soon as the polls call closed in the western

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Speaker 11: part of the state. So Donald Trump has gotten florid

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Speaker 11: as electoral votes, never in doubt, but like the fact

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Speaker 11: that it was that decisive, and now Decision Desk HQ

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Speaker 11: is giving Donald Trump a seventy percent chance of winning

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Speaker 11: the presidency tonight. So the fact is is that I

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Speaker 11: think the energy is there with President Trump. We are

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Speaker 11: seeing him hit his numbers across the board in a

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Speaker 11: lot of different places, and I think we're going to

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Speaker 11: just continue to roll with the votes as they're coming in.

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Speaker 11: But things are looking promising and looking up, and the

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Speaker 11: Republicans are already two major steps towards retaking the US

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Speaker 11: Senate majority as well with Rick Scott's decisive victory in Florida,

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Speaker 11: and Republicans of course never in doubt, but taking the

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Speaker 11: West Virginia US Senate seat. So now we're to fifty

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Speaker 11: to fifty and we're watching Ohio, We're watching we'll be

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Speaker 11: watching Montana later tonight.

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Speaker 2: Well, with with Justice winning taking the Mansion seat. She

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Speaker 2: he's up on Testa and President Trump's gonna win there

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Speaker 2: by twenty five or thirty points.

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Speaker 3: I think it's pretty safe.

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Speaker 2: The safest bet maybe we have all night is that

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Speaker 2: we will take the United States Senate. Now, you may

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Speaker 2: get Bernie Marino, you may get kay Lake, you may

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Speaker 2: get Rogers in Michigan. Baldwin may go down in Wisconsin.

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Speaker 3: You can get Sam Brandon Nevada.

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Speaker 2: We've got three or four other potential pickups, but at

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Speaker 2: least you control the Senate, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 11: And I do think that again, what we are seeing

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Speaker 11: across the board demographically here is Donald Trump is hitting

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Speaker 11: his numbers. If you look at Key counties across Georgia,

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Speaker 11: in other places in the country, we are seeing Donald

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Speaker 11: Trump massive swings his direction. In fact, you know, it's

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Speaker 11: still early in Virginia and North Carolina, right, I don't

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Speaker 11: expect calls there for a while, and you know, until

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Speaker 11: we get a lot more results. But the fact is

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Speaker 11: that the Virginia race is last time I checked a

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Speaker 11: few minutes ago about a three percent race between Kamala

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Speaker 11: Harris and Donald Trump. And frankly, the fact that Donald

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Speaker 11: Trump on the trails are by three this laid into

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Speaker 11: the evening with that many results. I think there was

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Speaker 11: like something like thirty percent or something. Reporting is not

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Speaker 11: a good sign for Kamala Harris. We're seeing county swing

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Speaker 11: counties in Texas that are showing.

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Speaker 10: Double digit swings Donald Trump's way.

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Speaker 11: These are counties Democrats thought they could win and instead

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Speaker 11: they went hard, wildly the other way. Key counties in

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Speaker 11: Georgia are swinging Donald Trump's way. And again this is

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Speaker 11: all why decision desk HQ the real statistics guys right like,

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Speaker 11: and they call races. I don't call races, but the

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Speaker 11: decision to de skate. You guys are seeing the same

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Speaker 11: thing that I'm talking to you about right now, and

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Speaker 11: they are saying that Donald Trump has a seventy percent

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Speaker 11: chance of winning the presidency this evening.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to North Carolina, because remember, without North Carolina's

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Speaker 2: she's jammed up on the bl wall. She got to

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Speaker 2: run the tables if she wins North Carolina. This gives

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Speaker 2: her many different options to do this. Right, Let's go

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Speaker 2: North Carolin. A lot of guys I know have kind

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Speaker 2: of hit the panic button already in saying they think

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Speaker 2: that North Carolina looks like it could go. Does she

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Speaker 2: get squeak out a win? Do you have any assessment?

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Speaker 11: I think it's too early to tell, and I think

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Speaker 11: that will be tracking the numbers as they come in.

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Speaker 11: I think the last time I checked, it was only

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Speaker 11: a few percent reporting in North Carolina.

447
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 6: So I'm no.

448
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 11: Surprise that the Democrat was going to take the governor race,

449
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,439
Speaker 11: right like. Fox News called that within seconds of the

450
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:34,639
Speaker 11: polls closing. But that's expected. That was expected even before

451
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:37,959
Speaker 11: all the gnarly stuff came out on Mark Robinson, right like,

452
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,680
Speaker 11: and so you know, we were expecting a split split,

453
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:42,880
Speaker 11: take a decision.

454
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 10: And that's normal in North Carolina.

455
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 11: By the way, North Carolina has a Democrat governor right now,

456
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 11: and they voted for him when you know in the

457
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 11: years past, when the Republicans have won federal.

458
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,439
Speaker 10: Elections, right like, so we're used to this, right like

459
00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 10: in North Carolina.

460
00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 11: Would I think it's too early to tell, and you

461
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 11: know what, are you tracking the numbers very closely here.

462
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:06,720
Speaker 11: But again, things are looking very promising in Georgia based

463
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 11: off of the numbers that we're seeing for Donald Trump, and.

464
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 10: There's been no formal call yet, and.

465
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:16,239
Speaker 11: Again what we're seeing very it's way too early in

466
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,400
Speaker 11: places like Pennsylvania and Michigan, but we're starting to see

467
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 11: some results trickle in from both of those places as well,

468
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 11: and we'll see.

469
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 10: We'll kind of keep tracking things as it goes.

470
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,199
Speaker 11: But I'm not worried about North Carolina right now. I

471
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 11: think we need to see a lot more numbers before

472
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 11: anybody starts panicking.

473
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 3: In any respect, we've got the Senate. Do you have

474
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 3: any assessment of the House? The Vimen race, and.

475
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 2: It has taken from the more blue parts of the

476
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 2: of this county. Vimen looks like he's at least got

477
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,679
Speaker 2: a pretty substantial lead over his opponents.

478
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 3: Any other sense of things happening in the House.

479
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 11: I haven't dug too deep into House races yet because

480
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,359
Speaker 11: I've been tracking the White House mostly, but I will

481
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 11: say there was one race trying acting down in South Florida.

482
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:06,120
Speaker 11: That's a Congresswoman, Maria Salazar. She won reelection easily, so

483
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,679
Speaker 11: you know that was a district Democrats thought they might

484
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,159
Speaker 11: be able to take so, but I think it's too

485
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 11: early to tell on that front. There's a lot of

486
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 11: too early to tell right now, Steve. But things are

487
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 11: looking promising for Trump.

488
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 3: John, you've got an update on the abortion amendment.

489
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 5: Yes, the Decision Desk and the Hill just call this.

490
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 5: Florida's abortion amendment fails, leaving six week ban in place.

491
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 5: A sign of just how red Florida has become and

492
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,359
Speaker 5: how consistent his vote is. I mean, you see, Donald

493
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 5: Trump has one Florida. They defeated the abortion amendment, so

494
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 5: it means have a pandamic.

495
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 6: Say that again, Matt.

496
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:44,360
Speaker 10: In the marijuana amendment.

497
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 11: Both the abortion and the marijuana amendments gone down in Florida.

498
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:48,880
Speaker 10: That's a huge deal.

499
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 3: Wow.

500
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, it is a huge deal. And Florida's a solid

501
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 5: red state.

502
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 3: Explain to our audience who what is Decision Desk? Who's there?

503
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 2: Because right now, Decision Desk has two numbers that are

504
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:05,199
Speaker 2: pretty interesting. Number one, they say President Trump has a

505
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 2: seventy percent chance probability of winning the presidency. They also

506
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 2: just come out and say that the Republicans have a

507
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,159
Speaker 2: two thirds or sixty six percent chance of holding the

508
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 2: House of Representatives. So how important is that number? How

509
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 2: do they calculate? Who are these guys and how accurate

510
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 2: are they?

511
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 11: Yeah, there's statistics guys, right Like, they're just like you

512
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 11: know the Associated Press desk that's going through and crunching

513
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 11: the numbers, or any of the major news networks, right Like,

514
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:35,360
Speaker 11: that's basically what they are.

515
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:36,360
Speaker 10: They're nonpartisan.

516
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 11: All they're doing is they're looking at the statistics of elections.

517
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 11: I can't remember a time that decision desk was wrong

518
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 11: when they formally called the race. And I've been doing

519
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 11: this like, as you mentioned there, this is my third

520
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,360
Speaker 11: presidential election at Breibart. I've been here for even more

521
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 11: midterm elections. It's my fourth presidential election working in the business.

522
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,439
Speaker 11: I don't remember exactly when decisions came along somewhere in there.

523
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 11: The fact is that they're just as reliable as cook

524
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:06,400
Speaker 11: political report or you know, any of the major networks

525
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,919
Speaker 11: or the Associated Press generally speaking, when it comes to

526
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 11: calling a race.

527
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 6: YEP.

528
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:14,880
Speaker 5: Tied to next our media, the big television station. Next

529
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 5: they own the Hill. Next our they owned WGN, which

530
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 5: is now a very successful news nation. So they're they're careful.

531
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 5: Matt has got it exactly right. They're very careful and

532
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 5: they're good data people.

533
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,640
Speaker 2: Matt, Where do people go to follow your coverage? You're

534
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 2: putting up stuff NonStop. Where do people go?

535
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 10: Just bripeur dot com. Yeah, we'll see. We'll keep tracking

536
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 10: things as they go throughout the evening.

537
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 2: Okay, Matt Bowl over at brype our National pul Guardia.

538
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: Thank you very much, sir. So we got Georgia's in play.

539
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 2: North Carolina's in play. A few people a little nervous

540
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 2: about North Carolina. Matt Ball is saying, take a deep breath.

541
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 2: We got numbers coming to Michigan. We've got numbers are

542
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 2: closed in Pennsylvania.

543
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 3: We'll get to all that in the next segment.

544
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 2: Decision Desk has said seventy percent probability President Trump will

545
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 2: be elected President States. Still a long way to go

546
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,919
Speaker 2: on that, particularly of North Carolina is won by Kamala Harris,

547
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 2: you will have a couple of alternative paths to the presidency.

548
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 2: They're also saying sixty six percent probability that we will

549
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 2: keep the.

550
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 3: House of Representatives. So we've got a lot to get to.

551
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,360
Speaker 2: We're gonna take a short commercial break here on real

552
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 2: America's Voice coverage. We're going to try to go to

553
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 2: some of the states and get some of our people

554
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 2: that are in beds.

555
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,919
Speaker 3: Also a couple of the GOP chairmen, and particularly in

556
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 3: Georgia to see what's going on. I think people feel

557
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 3: a lot more comfortable. We can put Georgia away in

558
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,639
Speaker 3: the wind column along with Florida. We can breathe a

559
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 3: little easier. Short commercial break. You're in Real America's Voice

560
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 3: from the Willard.

561
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 2: Hotel in the Imperial Capital, Washington, d C.

562
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 3: Back in a moment.

563
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 1: Real America's Voice. Twenty twenty four election coverage is brought

564
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 1: to you by Trump knifest dot Com. This is the

565
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 1: number one Trump Christmas gift for twenty twenty four. Trump

566
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 1: knifest dot com or election coverage is brought to you

567
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 1: by AMAC.

568
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 2: Okay, welcome back to our election night coverage. This is

569
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 2: the We're gonna get to some the next couple of hours.

570
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 2: I think are gonna be interesting and people may be

571
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 2: a little nervous. You just got to power through this.

572
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 3: You guys have done such a spectacular job today. We've

573
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 3: got some new information coming out in Nevada.

574
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:40,120
Speaker 2: We'll get that up towards probably the latter part of

575
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,360
Speaker 2: this segment, we're gonna get Amanda head up in Georgia.

576
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 2: But we got breaking news John Solomon. The Commonwealth of Virginia.

577
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,880
Speaker 2: Here's the theory of the case is that we lost

578
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 2: it in sixteen Hillary Clinton five points in north right,

579
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,159
Speaker 2: we got ten point blowout blow out by Biden.

580
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 3: And then you look, the deep state all lives in My.

581
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,719
Speaker 2: Beloved Virginia is really band at DC north of Fredericksburg.

582
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 6: That's true.

583
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 2: President Trump has been obsessed with winning Virginia.

584
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 3: He thinks he can win it. He gets a great

585
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 3: response there.

586
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 2: We said, you're going to know if Kamala Harris has

587
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 2: a long night ahead of her, if Virginia's under five points,

588
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 2: She's had a bigger spread tonight as I've taken votes

589
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 2: from loud and in other places. Although Trump's over performing

590
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,959
Speaker 2: Biden significantly by eight points in loud County, we've got

591
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 2: to update on the Commonwealth.

592
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 5: With thirty five percent of the vote in including a

593
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 5: lot of Fairfax in Louden which tends to be Democrat vote,

594
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,679
Speaker 5: those deep staters that you talk about, Donald Trump is

595
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 5: down just a little over a point. A lot of

596
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 5: the red areas like Shenandoah County. Some of the military

597
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:42,439
Speaker 5: base arees around Norfolk not yet in That vodes very

598
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:43,959
Speaker 5: well that this is going to be a much closer

599
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 5: race in Virginia than it was in twenty twenty or

600
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,439
Speaker 5: even twenty sixteen. We'll keep a very close eye on this.

601
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 5: It also would suggest that the Vinmin race is going

602
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 5: to tie up. It has tightened up a little bit.

603
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 5: But the key thing is the top line in Virginia.

604
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 5: Donald Trump performing very well with over a third of

605
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 5: the vote in So we're going to keep that really

606
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 5: watched close to I have some also some other intel.

607
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 5: What happens around this hour is that you have twenty

608
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 5: states where real vote data is coming in over the

609
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,199
Speaker 5: exit polls. If there's any bias that gets corrected. What

610
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 5: we're hearing from my analysts who have direct access to

611
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 5: this is that Donald Trump is hitting his numbers and

612
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 5: in some places exceeding the numbers he would need to

613
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 5: win in the battlegrounds, and that Kamala Harris is underperforming,

614
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 5: particularly with black men and a little bit with Hispanic voters.

615
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 5: So if that model continues to enrich over the night,

616
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 5: it gets more and more accurate and becomes eventually very

617
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,919
Speaker 5: precisely accurate. It is very consistent to what Matt was

618
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 5: just telling us that bright Bard met Ball was saying,

619
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 5: Donald Trumps hitting his numbers. I'm hearing not only is

620
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 5: Donald Trump hitting his numbers, he's exceeding in some places.

621
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 5: And Kamala Harris is underperforming in some of those urban

622
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 5: erarors which he needed.

623
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 6: A big black vote turned out today.

624
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 2: Okay, So if we want to frame this in what

625
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 2: the good news and the bad news is, people should

626
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 2: know the exit polls from President Trump were as favorable

627
00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 2: as I think we could ask for.

628
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 3: Correct. That's why you saw the long spaces earlier.

629
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 2: And if we get the CNN clip of Dana Bash

630
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 2: put up is what John says. When these polls come

631
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 2: out and their analytics people look at them, you had

632
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 2: a lot of long faces early in the evening in

633
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 2: CNN and MSNBC. Your analysis now is saying, hey, it

634
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 2: takes a couple of hours to work this through, but

635
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 2: he may be either either as good or maybe even better.

636
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 3: She's underperforming.

637
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 2: At the same time, Virginia is now down to one point.

638
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 3: However, people I respect are.

639
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: Saying that the governor's race in North Carolina's already been called.

640
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 2: Now that was that it's incorporated the Mark Robinson problem,

641
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 2: and a lot of people are saying, did Robinson and

642
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 2: the problems he had have a drag on Trump? There

643
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 2: are people that are nervous about North Carolina.

644
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 3: Now why does this matter?

645
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 2: If she wins North Carolina, she then has alternative paths

646
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 2: to the presidency. The cutoff of North Carolina and Georgia

647
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 2: really made the fact that she had to run the

648
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:56,719
Speaker 2: tables on the on the on the Blue Wall, and

649
00:29:56,760 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 2: that was looking increasingly problematic. Particularly, she kind panic at

650
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 2: the end of her campaign and started going and camped

651
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 2: out in Wisconsin for all day Friday and then went

652
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 2: back to Pennsylvania for all day Monday, and particularly she

653
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 2: went to areas in Wisconsin, in Milwaukee, and she went

654
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 2: to areas in Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, and finished her campaign

655
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 2: at Philadelphia, where you wouldn't think you would have to

656
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 2: go if you were trying to expand out. Is that

657
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 2: basically the summary where we stand at eight thirty tonight

658
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 2: on the on election night, one.

659
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 6: Hundred percent accurate.

660
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 5: And also it's the flight deck plan of a Democrat

661
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 5: who's underperforming in the core area is not someone who's

662
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 5: on office trying to bring in additional states like North Carolina.

663
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 6: Over the weekend, I was.

664
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 5: Told by multiple people close to Kamala Harris's campaign that

665
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 5: she pulled some resources from North Carolina and Georgia and

666
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 5: moved into Pennsylvania and Wisconsin because she thought the chances

667
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 5: were better. There's another reason why I'd be surprised if

668
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 5: she would.

669
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 6: Pull out in North Carolina.

670
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 5: There's no doubt North Carolina changes the map entirely of

671
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 5: Democrats put that in the win for the presidential column.

672
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 6: But I don't get that sense yet. I've been pounding.

673
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 5: People all over the state and they think the vote

674
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 5: count is coming in a little differently than it has

675
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 5: because of the oddities of the hurricane. But they're not yet.

676
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 5: They're not jumping out windows quite yet.

677
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 2: I've always been North Carolina. In sixteen, it was it

678
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 2: was Mark Meadows that actually had to calm me down.

679
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 2: It was always nervous. There was never a strong Whalley's done.

680
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 2: A good job is never a great GOP base. There

681
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 2: two things where I go before I go to Natalie.

682
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:30,719
Speaker 3: Thematically, Normally, when things happen, particularly demographics in the United States,

683
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 3: they happen throughout the country.

684
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 2: Right, you can see this. The Florida situation with the

685
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 2: Hispanic vote is quite important. And what we're seeing and

686
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 2: particularly in Philadelphia with the African American male vote and

687
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 2: looks like the underperformance of that not showing up. Also,

688
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 2: overall African American vote looks like he's going to be

689
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 2: eleven percent not thirteen percent. Those are two big themes,

690
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 2: both headwinds for Kamala Harris, although let me tell you,

691
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 2: North Carolina makes people nervous.

692
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 3: Natalie Winner update.

693
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 4: Yes, well with NBC's exit polls, particularly on Hispanic men

694
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 4: showing up ten for President Trump.

695
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 2: But to go back up ten points for President Trump,

696
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 2: do we have the aggurate is he close to?

697
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 3: Is he close to forty percent with Hispanic means?

698
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 9: I will pull that, but before we do.

699
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 4: In reference to Georgia, Baldwin County, which is forty one

700
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 4: percent black, is looking like Trump is going to flip that.

701
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 4: He'll be the first Republican to win that county since

702
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 4: two thousand.

703
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 3: And four, and that is amazing.

704
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 4: Big picture, we know the New York Times Tech Guild

705
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 4: has been having issues, will be euphimistic, but they have

706
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 4: just put up their needle, and they put the electoral

707
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 4: College estimate right now currently Trump two hundred and seventy nine,

708
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 4: which she actually just revised he was a little lower,

709
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 4: and Harris two fifty nine, with Harris at the popular

710
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 4: vote estimating up point nine.

711
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 2: Hold a hangover a second. This is monumental because this

712
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,719
Speaker 2: is the first time it's happened. The needle, and then

713
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 2: maybe we can get it to the to Parker and

714
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 2: the staff in the interim. They have a thing like

715
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 2: a needle on a speedometer. It is never gone. I

716
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 2: don't think to Trump at all in this campaign. You're

717
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 2: saying now it actually points to two hundred and seventy

718
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 2: nine electoral votes for President Trump.

719
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 3: Well, correctly, from.

720
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 2: That, that would mean that they're they're projecting. I believe

721
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 2: he wins North Carolina and takes Wisconsin, does not get

722
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 2: Nevada right, and does not get Pennsylvania, probably Michigan. He

723
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 2: wins one of the at two seventy nine, he wins that.

724
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 2: It looks appears he wins the Wisconsin seat. This is

725
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 2: what Jonathan Martin, Jonathan Martin, who used to be a

726
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 2: political one of the best finance writers, a financial reporter,

727
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:40,719
Speaker 2: a very straight Guy A Morning Joe today.

728
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 3: He actually said Trump to seventy and.

729
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 2: Here's how you here's how you get there. Right at

730
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 2: two seventy eight, he says, Kamala Harris would be two

731
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 2: seventy to.

732
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 3: Win the Blue Wall and win in Nebraska too. The

733
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 3: do we have Amanda Head yet? In Georgia? Do we

734
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 3: have Amanda I would love to go to Amanda.

735
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 2: Head down in Georgia and get a feeld report. We've

736
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 2: got David Zira in North Carolina. We've got Michelle that's

737
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 2: in Philadelphia. We're trying to get Jack Pozovic to talk

738
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 2: a little bit about Pennsylvania. We're going to go back

739
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 2: to We're going to go back to Gruber Brother Gruber

740
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 2: here in a second.

741
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 3: So I don't have Amanda Head. Okay, fine, well can okay,

742
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,760
Speaker 3: let's go to Amanda Head in Georgia.

743
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 2: Amanda are the people are cautiously optimistic about Georgia, but

744
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:27,839
Speaker 2: we're not there yet.

745
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 3: Can you give us your breakdown?

746
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 12: Yeah, they've moved a little bit away from the cautiously

747
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 12: part and towards optimism. I've spoken to, of course, the

748
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 12: Georgia State Chair Josh mccoon numerous times over the last

749
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 12: seven days or so, and his confidence seems to keep building.

750
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 12: And with respect to what Natalie Winters was saying, I'm

751
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:48,919
Speaker 12: hearing the same thing out of Baldwin County, and again,

752
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 12: this is a forty percent African American district.

753
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,320
Speaker 9: There's also been a shift in young.

754
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 12: Voters in Fulton County, Georgia. They're close to ninety percent

755
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 12: reporting They've got a two point six percent shift to

756
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 12: Ord's President.

757
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 9: Trump over twenty twenty. So that's interesting because that's a

758
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 9: rural area, young black men.

759
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,760
Speaker 12: It's something that a lot of us thought might happen,

760
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 12: but this is something that.

761
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 9: I wanted to point out to you.

762
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 12: The five counties where turnout has been the strongest both

763
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 12: in early voting and day of are five very strong

764
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 12: Republican counties Towns County, o Cooney, Dawson, Forsyth, and Raven.

765
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,399
Speaker 12: So I think there are a lot of people here

766
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 12: who are moving towards the optimism column instead of just

767
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 12: cautiously optimistic.

768
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:31,319
Speaker 2: We'll see, Okay, Amanda, I want to go I want

769
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,399
Speaker 2: to hit rewind and go through that because there's so much,

770
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:36,839
Speaker 2: particularly the fact of how President Trump's performing in these

771
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 2: African American counties why is the sense we've kind of

772
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 2: gone from it's closed, and you know, the polls closed,

773
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 2: people are looking.

774
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 3: At some good news out of Georgia.

775
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,879
Speaker 2: Why are people more than cautiously optimistic that we could

776
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 2: Because if we can put Georgia way in the next

777
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 2: couple of hours, that would be a huge you know,

778
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:56,320
Speaker 2: that would be a huge thing. In President Trump's President

779
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 2: Trump's column, walk us back through that assessment.

780
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 12: Yeah, So it kind of starts with the early voting,

781
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 12: in the history of early voting that we've seen over

782
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 12: the last few elections, where obviously you're going to have

783
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 12: more Democrat turnout Republicans this time around, especially in those

784
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 12: rural counties, really really embrace the early voting aspect. So

785
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 12: you've got all of these voter Oh and by the way,

786
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:19,760
Speaker 12: i've got some elderly numbers.

787
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 9: Actually I don't want to.

788
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 12: Say elderly because I don't want to get anybody mad

789
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 12: at me, but age sixty to seventy nine group is

790
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:27,800
Speaker 12: showing up strong, with a seventy three point four percent

791
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:31,240
Speaker 12: turnout compared to just thirty nine point five for ages

792
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 12: eighteen to thirty nine. Now, I want to get back

793
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,320
Speaker 12: to those rural counties those Red counties.

794
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: Amanda, Amanda, you're one of my favorite people, and you're

795
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,760
Speaker 2: my favorite people. You're Wingmanda, John Salmon, don't use elderly

796
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 2: when you're talking about seventy.

797
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 3: Okay, what is this. It's the new office, the new fifty. Listen,

798
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 3: I'm coming out prison. Rip baby, I'm ready to go elderly.

799
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 3: We're not elderly. Heathan, You've seen no season.

800
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 9: Close to see you. Okay, you got to hit eighty

801
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 9: before you get there. You guys are just in the

802
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 9: wise column. That's all the is.

803
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 12: But when I spoke to Josh mccoon last week, he

804
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 12: said with respect to the Red counties, and he used

805
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 12: the term monstrous monstrous turnout. So you have a lot

806
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,200
Speaker 12: of folks in these counties who in the past, they

807
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 12: didn't show up to vote early. So that I think

808
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:15,400
Speaker 12: is why you are seeing this switch, because they are

809
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 12: starting those early ballot counting and so you're seeing that

810
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,760
Speaker 12: shift a little bit more later in the evening.

811
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:21,800
Speaker 9: But I think, you know, you've got to know by midnight,

812
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 9: So I think.

813
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 12: That we're going to see numbers.

814
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 9: What time is it close to night?

815
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 12: I think probably in the next thirty minutes.

816
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 2: Are you saying you think you'll see another drop, you'll

817
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 2: see more numbers coming in in Georgia, that this thing

818
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 2: will be further close to call around nine thirty.

819
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,359
Speaker 12: I think so, and I think it's probably going to stay.

820
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 12: I mean this, the margin all night has been anywhere

821
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 12: from eleven points to eight points, but it's pretty much

822
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 12: stuck around ten points. So it makes me wonder if

823
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 12: there's really going to be any significant shift to speak

824
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 12: of on the other side of this.

825
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,280
Speaker 3: Hangar for one second, John Saw and your thoughts about Georgia.

826
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 5: It's going to be in the red Kaalm lissen Camp

827
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 5: has his machine out there. The fact that Trump kent

828
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 5: made up, the fact that Donald Trump resonates with the

829
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 5: Georgia vote, and the fact that young black voters are

830
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 5: either staying home or voting more Republican this time around.

831
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 5: There's no way for Donald Trump to lose that thing,

832
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 5: I don't think at this point. And one of the

833
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 5: things I just got a text from someone close to

834
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 5: Senator Warnock. He thinks that the black vote is just

835
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 5: really underperforming in Georgia and all throughout the Southeast, is

836
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 5: what that source told me.

837
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 6: And that's right.

838
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:30,799
Speaker 2: He's a guy he's a guy that can turn out.

839
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,279
Speaker 2: He is an outstanding, outstanding he is a fantastic and

840
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 2: they've talked about him as a potential.

841
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 3: Vice president and in the future maybe even a presidential candidate.

842
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 3: Because of that. Okay, short commercial break, We're going to

843
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 3: return to the Willard Hotel in just a moment.

844
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 2: Okay, welcome back round that we're in the roof of

845
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 2: the Willard Hotel, the historic Willard Hotel, across the street

846
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 2: from the Treasury Department and the White House and overlooking

847
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 2: the Ellipse. It's this is historic venue because in the

848
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,360
Speaker 2: main body of the Willard, on the eighth floors, we

849
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 2: had the we had our war room to try to

850
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:29,720
Speaker 2: stop the steal in twenty twenty and then the Ellipse

851
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:32,760
Speaker 2: was both the speech of President Trump on January sixth,

852
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 2: and that's where Kamala Harris gave her closing arguing in front.

853
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 3: Of about seventy five thousand. They said, seventy five one

854
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 3: hundred thousand folks.

855
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 2: Last week, I want to go to Amanda head Amanda.

856
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 2: I take it that the enthusiasms building in Georgia. John

857
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 2: Solomon feels very confident. Before we let you go any

858
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:52,879
Speaker 2: closing thoughts.

859
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:55,439
Speaker 3: Will come back when George's called. But any closing thoughts.

860
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, when.

861
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 12: You have such uation for Kamala Harris, where Donald Trump

862
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:05,280
Speaker 12: is getting twenty five percent of the male black vote,

863
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 12: I don't think that's a problem that's unique to Georgia.

864
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 12: I think you're going to see that in places like

865
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 12: Wisconsin and of course Pennsylvania. And I also think that

866
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 12: one of the big assists to President Trump was the

867
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:18,879
Speaker 12: makeup between he and Governor Brian Kemp. Regardless of how

868
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 12: authentic you think it was, it showed magnanimity on the

869
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 12: part of both on both parts, and I think.

870
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 9: That that was the side of President Trump.

871
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 12: That some people in this say, some Republican voters who

872
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 12: were willing to vote Republican down ballot but not for

873
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 12: President Trump.

874
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 9: That was something that they needed to see.

875
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 6: Hang.

876
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 3: I'm want to go to Solomon stan there, Amanda for second.

877
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 2: Just hang with us. Camp's ground game is supposed to

878
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 2: be extraordinary. He's built up a political machine there.

879
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:45,720
Speaker 3: Yes, they did.

880
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:48,359
Speaker 2: He did have a Rob Poschemont with President Trump. They

881
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,880
Speaker 2: turned the ground game over. You think that's one of

882
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 2: the reasons that we're seeing at ten point spread right now.

883
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 6: I do.

884
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 5: I think that Brian Kamp wants to run for Senate

885
00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 5: in twenty twenty six. Having good relationships with Donald Trump

886
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 5: and delivering for Donald Trump in twenty twenty four makes

887
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 5: sense for him, even if they don't like each other.

888
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 5: I think they have legitimately warmed up quite a bit.

889
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 5: And a man who died today that you and I

890
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 5: know very well, the great Bernie Yeah, Bernie Marcus. He

891
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 5: do a lot of time in his last five months

892
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:19,799
Speaker 5: trying to make that approachman happen, and before he got

893
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 5: too ill, he got it to happen. And I think

894
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 5: that that's something that not only bodes well for twenty

895
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 5: twenty four, but you know, you could look at another

896
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 5: eight or twelve years of a Kent machine lasting in

897
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:31,319
Speaker 5: Georgia's So it's a very big thing.

898
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 6: Amanda, as always calls it just right.

899
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 5: I do think young black voters are really young male

900
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:39,359
Speaker 5: black voters are really breaking in a unique way.

901
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 6: And I think another thing.

902
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 5: You know, for most of the last twenty years or

903
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 5: in fifteen years, we've been talking about young voters in

904
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:48,720
Speaker 5: the millennial class, which was very liberal, but they're aging

905
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 5: out into their forties now and the youngest generation gen

906
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 5: Z is really starting to lean in and they look

907
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 5: a little more conservative across the board tonight and all

908
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:00,840
Speaker 5: the polling down and I'm seeing in all the areas,

909
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 5: including in college campus areas, I'm seeing a tighter vote

910
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 5: in places where Democrats whose you outperform. It could mean

911
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 5: that young voters and gen Z are going to be

912
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:10,840
Speaker 5: a little more read and that will be attribute to

913
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 5: people like Charlie Kirk and others who've made it fashionable

914
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 5: to be conservative and not be shamed off of campus.

915
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 6: So those are dynamics.

916
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 5: And when we talked about the tectonic place ship shifting tonight, yes,

917
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 5: this is one.

918
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 3: Of them, Amanda Head.

919
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 2: When you talk about twenty five percent of the African

920
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:27,760
Speaker 2: American male vote in Georgia voting for President Trump, it's stunning.

921
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 3: That is a tectonic place show Amanda social media, how

922
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 3: do people follow you.

923
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:36,280
Speaker 12: Throughout the evening, adam in the head everywhere?

924
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,280
Speaker 3: Thank you very much, ma'am.

925
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 4: We've got some breaking into here, so I'm having to

926
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:45,960
Speaker 4: refresh it like every second because it keeps oscillating. But

927
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 4: in Virginia with forty six percent of the votes and

928
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 4: Trump is currently up by point seven, but just to

929
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 4: give a bird's eye view of some other states in Georgia.

930
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 2: With but but hanger for one second, because that's kind

931
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:03,320
Speaker 2: of blockbuster news. I mean, we talked earlier in pre production.

932
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 2: If we're getting close to the nine o'clock hour, yep,

933
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 2: and the Commonwealth's been closed for two hours, and we said, hey,

934
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 2: if she's around five or just less, she's got a

935
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 2: problem here.

936
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 3: Trump has actually taken and remember I've been the biggest

937
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 3: guy saying let's not spend time in Virginia.

938
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 2: We've got so many other places we've got to go

939
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 2: us and he's been obsessed. He went back on the

940
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 2: Saturday before and this is President Trump's call. He goes

941
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 2: to Sanel, Virginity in the western part of the state

942
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 2: and says, I want to be there because I think

943
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 2: I can win this.

944
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 3: I to seeing the data at nine o'clock at night.

945
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 3: He's up zero point seven. Right. That's pretty blockbuster news,

946
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:39,040
Speaker 3: is not, sir.

947
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 5: And with Fairfax and Loud and heavily in already the

948
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 5: big with some of the big blue walls already fully counted.

949
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:47,320
Speaker 5: Now what I see here is some of the red

950
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 5: counties are reporting a little earlier than in prior years,

951
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 5: including with Youngkin, so he might be juiced a little bit.

952
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,400
Speaker 5: And some of the Richmond and Center State urban areas

953
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 5: are not yet counted, so Petersburg and Richmond are not

954
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 5: fully counted, So it's going to get a little blue there.

955
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 6: But there's still a lot of vote.

956
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 5: Coming down in the Western Valley all the way to

957
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 5: the Tennessee of order of the Sheanandoah Valley. Still some

958
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:11,239
Speaker 5: votes out there. Kamala Harris clearly underperforming Joe Biden by

959
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 5: quite a bit in Virginia. If it keeps up, Donald Trump,

960
00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 5: it might eke out a win here. But even if

961
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 5: he makes it close, it's a sign that the Democratic

962
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 5: coalition of Joe Biden has been broken in that dexit

963
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 5: we were talking about two.

964
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:24,879
Speaker 6: Three years ago. It's playing out before our eyes now.

965
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:26,280
Speaker 3: If the Hispanic.

966
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 2: Vote totals and direction in Florida translates to the rest

967
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:33,320
Speaker 2: of the country, If the twenty five percent of African

968
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 2: American men in Georgia voting for President Trump and others

969
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:39,759
Speaker 2: staying home, all of a sudden, places like Richard in

970
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 2: my hometown don't get to be such firewalls for.

971
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:47,439
Speaker 3: The Democratic Party. That's right, This is a true game changers.

972
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:49,360
Speaker 5: And it's a generational change. And I've been saying this

973
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,320
Speaker 5: for about two months now. I think Donald Trump was

974
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 5: putting together a shift that could be generational.

975
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 6: Now.

976
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:56,800
Speaker 5: To keep a generational Republicans have to do something today

977
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 5: after the election, every day since, have a conversation with

978
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 5: these vot keep them engaged the way Donald Trump engaged them,

979
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 5: because he'll be busy running the country if he's president,

980
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 5: and so how you hold this together is going to

981
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:11,880
Speaker 5: be the great exciting question for Republicans tomorrow if this holds.

982
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:15,839
Speaker 5: But all the demographics are clearly shift tonight, Kamala Harris

983
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 5: is significantly underperforming Joe Biden in almost every category that

984
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,759
Speaker 5: I can get good data on. I still want to

985
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 5: see women in suburban women, but it doesn't seem like

986
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 5: she's going to perform well enough there to erase any

987
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:29,360
Speaker 5: of the losses that she has. Another one I'd like

988
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:31,879
Speaker 5: to see, because I think as a generational shift may

989
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 5: very well be Jewish voters. I'm seeing some early data

990
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 5: in the Philadelphia area, Pittsburgh area, some other places that

991
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 5: the Jewish vote is breaking much more heavily towards Donald Trump.

992
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 6: So before surprisingly.

993
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 2: Another factory for important Miami Day. The first time a

994
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 2: Republican has won this since nineteen eighty eight, the third

995
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 2: term of Ronald Reagan or the first term of Bush

996
00:45:56,560 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 2: forty one.

997
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:58,320
Speaker 3: You get breaking news.

998
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 4: That decision to us because Virginia New Hampshire for Harris.

999
00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 3: Okay, Virginia and New Hampshire. Correct, Okay, well that would

1000
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 3: say yesterday.

1001
00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 2: They know they know the but we got to see

1002
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 2: what the well they called it by nine o'clock, So

1003
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:17,399
Speaker 2: this must mean that, you know, we had to see

1004
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:21,439
Speaker 2: what the percentages are. But this means that she locked

1005
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 2: in those two. What we thought they expand the map.

1006
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:27,880
Speaker 2: The basic expansion of the map was New Hampshire. What

1007
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 2: you heard early in the evening will be close Virginia,

1008
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 2: maybe New Mexico, maybe Minnesota.

1009
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 3: Right, those are the four that are kind of on

1010
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 3: the cusp.

1011
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:37,839
Speaker 5: Yeah, if they're calling that race, it's because a lot

1012
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 5: of the Democrats vote. What's happened this time in Virginia

1013
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:43,200
Speaker 5: is the Republican vote came in a little earlier then historically. Yeah,

1014
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 5: so it's made it look better for Donald Trump. Juiced

1015
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:46,840
Speaker 5: a little bit, but that would make some sense. I

1016
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 5: haven't seen that call about the check with Natalie's I'm

1017
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 5: sure right on top of.

1018
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 4: It with seventy eight percent of votes and in Fulton

1019
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:56,839
Speaker 4: County for a state total of sixty six percent of votes.

1020
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 4: In Trump is up by five, In Georgia.

1021
00:46:59,320 --> 00:46:59,839
Speaker 3: Up by four.

1022
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 5: They're going to get close. That's going to that's a race.

1023
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:03,840
Speaker 5: It's about to bake to close.

1024
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 3: You think he's going to a decision, Dexter, you're close

1025
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 3: to I think in.

1026
00:47:07,040 --> 00:47:09,279
Speaker 4: The next hour just in the Share Times has it

1027
00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 4: and lean Ar, Yeah, it's moving to.

1028
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 6: The bake status.

1029
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 5: That's what someone just told me in charge of GOP

1030
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 5: that it's in the oven baking and it should be

1031
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:17,439
Speaker 5: ready in the forty five minutes to an hour.

1032
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 3: Do we have is David Zero? Do we have David

1033
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 3: Zer production staff? Is David Zero?

1034
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:25,720
Speaker 2: I'd like to get David's yer in North Carolina idea

1035
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:27,759
Speaker 2: with some He's got an exit poll and he's got

1036
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 2: some statistics.

1037
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 6: See ready, that's great?

1038
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 2: Is David ze Can we go to David Zeer in

1039
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 2: North Carolina? I'm here, so David Zer, can you give

1040
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 2: us an update? I'm brother of what's going on because

1041
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:46,560
Speaker 2: this right now, this is the lynch pin between blocking

1042
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 2: her just up at the blue wall, or give her

1043
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:50,799
Speaker 2: multiple paths to the presidency.

1044
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:51,359
Speaker 6: What do you got?

1045
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:56,840
Speaker 13: Well, Trump's up about eight right now at about twenty

1046
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:59,719
Speaker 13: six percent reporting here. In the exit polls from early

1047
00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 13: It's today said that forty seven percent of voters say

1048
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 13: they're worse enough than they were four years ago. Hispanic

1049
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:09,320
Speaker 13: votes are up, Black votes down three percent with women

1050
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:10,359
Speaker 13: one percent.

1051
00:48:10,080 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 6: Down with men.

1052
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 13: Maybe, but the Trump campaign gave me some numbers which

1053
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 13: we're really astonishing here. They're saying women in early voting

1054
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:19,480
Speaker 13: with down one hundred and fifty four thousand votes. Rural

1055
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:22,239
Speaker 13: votes were up twenty six thousand, which is good for

1056
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 13: Trump and that York. The North Carolina urban turnout is

1057
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:29,800
Speaker 13: down one hundred and seventy five thousand in early voting.

1058
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:32,640
Speaker 13: So I thought those are really significant.

1059
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:33,479
Speaker 3: Numbers to keep in mind.

1060
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 13: And I've been speaking to campaign officials all day here

1061
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 13: from Wake County, the largest county in North Carolina. So

1062
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 13: even though Trump loses here in Wake County, if he

1063
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:45,399
Speaker 13: loses by less, that's a very good indicator. So we'll

1064
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 13: see where that goes. But I just spoke to another

1065
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 13: campaign officials said they were very positive about Trump taking

1066
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 13: North Carolina, and I'm waiting for the state GOP chair

1067
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:59,920
Speaker 13: Jason Simmons to come down to come on with us.

1068
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 13: Walk me through again this western North Carolina.

1069
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, but walk me through this eight point this eight

1070
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:09,080
Speaker 2: point lead.

1071
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 3: Where is that coming from? And it was about a

1072
00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:12,759
Speaker 3: third of the state's reporter so far.

1073
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 13: I think you said, Yeah, it looks like compared to

1074
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:20,680
Speaker 13: the twenty twenty map, that a lot of the turnouts

1075
00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:26,560
Speaker 13: are shadowing twenty twenty, but then some because you have

1076
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 13: like in the Western Carolina districts twenty five districts affected

1077
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 13: by Hurricane Helene outside of Buncombe and Boone County and

1078
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:39,360
Speaker 13: the Ashville area, they had a two percent higher early

1079
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:43,600
Speaker 13: voting ratio coming out than the rest of North Carolina.

1080
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 13: And it looks like that may translate today and in

1081
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:52,880
Speaker 13: person voting voting intent behind churches in North Carolina here.

1082
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:55,360
Speaker 13: And I've been looking at a lot of the counties here,

1083
00:49:55,440 --> 00:49:58,760
Speaker 13: like Natalie brought up Randolph County. I think Trump's winning

1084
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 13: there by a few point. It's higher than twenty twenty

1085
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:04,759
Speaker 13: at about eighty percent if I'm not mistaken, And it

1086
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:07,759
Speaker 13: was seventy seven or seventy eight percent last time, So

1087
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 13: it looks like Trump maybe building on his lead in

1088
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:15,640
Speaker 13: the red areas. And you know, people are confident here

1089
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 13: at this point. Everybody's been walking on eggs all day.

1090
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 13: And you also have these hot congressional races here. It

1091
00:50:22,880 --> 00:50:25,280
Speaker 13: looks like Laurie beck Out is down about eight points

1092
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 13: but only about twenty five thirty percent reporting, But they

1093
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 13: might pick up three congressional seats here for the House.

1094
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:35,360
Speaker 3: Okay, hang on, David, We're going to come back to you.

1095
00:50:35,360 --> 00:50:38,400
Speaker 3: I want you to stay right there. Any breaking news anything.

1096
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:42,319
Speaker 4: Laurence o'donald's melting down about the electoral college on MSNBC

1097
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:43,960
Speaker 4: exactually good.

1098
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:45,840
Speaker 6: Such, Yeah, that's a good site. You need to know.

1099
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:48,719
Speaker 3: That's a great tell. He was on fire about it

1100
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 3: the essay.

1101
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 2: Ye when they're whining, when they're bigeing and moaning about

1102
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 2: the electoral college, that's when you know you got.

1103
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 3: Them right, because they already know what the reality is. John,

1104
00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 3: Before we go to break any any.

1105
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:01,399
Speaker 5: Thoughts, Pennsylvani is a dogfight. We're going to just keep

1106
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 5: watching it and be very careful.

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00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 6: Michigan.

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00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:04,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a dogfight.

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00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:04,879
Speaker 7: But I'm here.

1110
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:06,440
Speaker 3: We won independence.

1111
00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 5: We have one independence. There is some turnout for black

1112
00:51:09,719 --> 00:51:12,759
Speaker 5: vote in Philadelphia. I think they're still counting. If you

1113
00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 5: look at Decision Desk right now, they haven't striped blue

1114
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 5: a little bit.

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Speaker 6: So for the presidential race, we've got to watch that.

1116
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:21,120
Speaker 5: That doesn't mean yeah, it's only fifty one percent, but

1117
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 5: there are there's some modeling in the Philadelphia suburbs that

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00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 5: would suggest to Kamala Harris assumes me in the Philadelphia

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00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 5: urban areas that she's performed better there than in Georgia

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00:51:29,680 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 5: and other places. Ninety eight percent chance that the Senate

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00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:36,239
Speaker 5: will be Republican. That's a sign that Decision Desk is

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00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 5: pretty much decided.

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00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:37,640
Speaker 6: She he's coming in.

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00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 3: Let's go to a short break.

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00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 2: We're a return. We go to North Carolina with David Seer.

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00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 2: We're here at the Willard Hotel. We'll be back in

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Speaker 2: a moment.

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Speaker 1: Real America's Voice twenty twenty four election coverage is brought

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00:51:57,719 --> 00:52:00,719
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00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:04,040
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