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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast,

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Speaker 1: the first for twenty seventeen. I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm

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Speaker 1: Tracy Allaway. So Tracy, I'm really excited about our episode

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Speaker 1: today because, of course, in the last episode we did

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Speaker 1: the look back for where we had some of our

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Speaker 1: colleagues tell us their favorite stories of the year. But

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Speaker 1: it's always fun and challenging to make predictions. To look forward.

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Speaker 1: The future is pretty difficult to figure out. Was of

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Speaker 1: course a very tough year to have called correctly in

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Speaker 1: many ways. And I think it's a good and mental

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Speaker 1: exercise to try. I you know, it's always sort of foolish,

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Speaker 1: but I'm a strong believer that people should make an

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Speaker 1: attempt to say what the future holds. So this is

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Speaker 1: the this is the tough episode, right, This is where

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Speaker 1: people have to exercise their mental muscles. They have to

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Speaker 1: think rationally and um all for the purposes of being

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Speaker 1: exposed to ridicule and shame when we're inevitably wrong twelve

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Speaker 1: months from now, yeah, exactly. And you know, there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of journalists are sort of anti predictions. They think

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Speaker 1: it's a foolish thing. They think that it's always going

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Speaker 1: to be wrong. But I just I think that's missing

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Speaker 1: the point. I think it's a it's a good mental exercise,

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Speaker 1: and it's sort of what you predict is an insight

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Speaker 1: into how you've digested what you've seen so far, and

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Speaker 1: it's just fun to say things that could be proven

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Speaker 1: right or wrong. Okay, Well, in the spirit of fun, uh,

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Speaker 1: let's let's go to our our panelist with us for

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Speaker 1: the second episode in a row. We heard them tell

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Speaker 1: their favorite stories of twenties sixteen. Now we're forcing them

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Speaker 1: to go out and tell us, look at their crystal balls,

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Speaker 1: what exactly is going to happen in ten Joining us

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Speaker 1: this week we have Ed Hammond, who covers deals for

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. Joe, Welcome Ed, Thank you, Thank you for

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Speaker 1: coming back. Mike Reagan, who covers markets for Bloomberg News.

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Speaker 1: He has launched a new markets live blog venture for

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Speaker 1: terminal users. Happy New Year. Thank you. Max Abelson, our

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Speaker 1: Wall Street expert at Wall Street Whisperers. I think I

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Speaker 1: described him. Thank you for coming back. I can't wait

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Speaker 1: to hear your call for the year. Thanks to you.

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Speaker 1: Megan Murphy, who covered politics for Bloomberg all year and

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Speaker 1: now has taken on a new mission as editor of

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Speaker 1: Business Week. Thank you for coming on. Can't wait to

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Speaker 1: get your prediction. Excited about it see if be as

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Speaker 1: crazy as it was from politics or whatever as two

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Speaker 1: thousand and sixteen was. And Dan Moss, who has a

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Speaker 1: great track record of predictions, thanks for coming back again.

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Speaker 1: Great to be here. And Ed, Uh, why don't you

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Speaker 1: uh tell us about your prediction for seventeen? Well, I

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Speaker 1: think crystal ball. What's going to be this year? Sprayer

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Speaker 1: than Yeah? Well, I think last year I just went

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Speaker 1: with the kind of stock m and a bank nonsense

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Speaker 1: of you know, we're going to see more deals in

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Speaker 1: and we didn't see more deals in twenty six we

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Speaker 1: did see lots of fifteen deals get blown up, which

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Speaker 1: was it was quite interesting. I think almost six hundred

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Speaker 1: billion of deals that was that was struck in twenty

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Speaker 1: fifteen was sort of torpedoed in. What's my prediction for

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Speaker 1: this year? I think, um, I think Nigel Farage, the

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Speaker 1: sort of populist, slightly right wing um political figure in

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Speaker 1: the UK, is going to end uh well, I mean

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Speaker 1: slightly by I suppose by global standards why UK and

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Speaker 1: as I would say extremely I think he's going to

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Speaker 1: end up in a celebrity based reality TV competition, Jule.

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Speaker 1: I was actually thinking Celebrity Apprentice because it would fit

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Speaker 1: well with this sort of Trump loving persona. So that's

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Speaker 1: that's my prediction. I think he is going to finally

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Speaker 1: bow out from politics for a career in reality television.

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Speaker 1: That's a good one. Did you vote in the referendum? Yes,

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Speaker 1: I did. I went home to vote in a referend

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Speaker 1: and that's our Seriously, it was quite quite depressing being

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Speaker 1: in London the day afterwards, like the world had ended,

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Speaker 1: because obviously London was desperately against this, and not only

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Speaker 1: that they had had their recently departed mayor be the

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Speaker 1: sort of flag bearer for the for the for the Brexiteers,

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Speaker 1: and that was I think, very very depressing obviously for

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Speaker 1: all concern Alright, Well, I love that prediction because it's con'tcrete,

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Speaker 1: and at the end of the year we can actually

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Speaker 1: test very clearly whether it happened or not. Max A. Wilson,

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Speaker 1: what is your prediction for Well, Joe, because I'm a

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Speaker 1: complicated man, I've got some complicated predictions. Let's talk about

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Speaker 1: New York City. I got a prection for New York City. When, uh,

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Speaker 1: when Jesse and Zach Mieder and I wrote our story

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Speaker 1: on Trump Tower. But you may remember a couple of

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Speaker 1: months ago. Great story. Everybody should go look it up.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Joe, Thank you Joe. One of Donald Trump's

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Speaker 1: friends an Italian man, a man who says he's account actually,

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Speaker 1: although we couldn't confirm that independently, he's he's a friend

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Speaker 1: of Trump's. He's he lives in the building. He's in

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Speaker 1: the far right, he's affiliated with far right Italian politics.

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Speaker 1: He predicted to us, he said, if Donald Trump wins

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Speaker 1: the election, I believe he's not gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: leave Trump Tower because he loves it so much. So

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Speaker 1: I'm stealing his prediction. Of course, that was before the election.

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Speaker 1: I'm stealing it to turn into a post election prediction

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Speaker 1: that after Donald Trump becomes president, sure he'll be in

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Speaker 1: the White House, but I predict he is going to

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Speaker 1: spend a ton of time here in New York City

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Speaker 1: on Fifth Avenue. We need to say an exact number

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Speaker 1: of nights that he spent and so that we can

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Speaker 1: see if he gets it right. So over, what's the line?

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's let's say they're fifty two weeks. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Friday and Saturday. You know, that's a hundred, just over

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Speaker 1: a hundred. Could you imagine if you spent more than

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Speaker 1: a hundred knights in New York City in over that

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Speaker 1: that would that would be one year. Okay, let's say

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Speaker 1: four years a hundred nights in New York. Wait, so

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Speaker 1: just twenty five nights a year, that's a lot. Mm hmm. Okay,

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Speaker 1: al right, it seems like you're sitting the bar a

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Speaker 1: little load, Victor. You gotta it's got to be higher

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Speaker 1: because just vacations alone and stuff like that. Let's go

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Speaker 1: for the first year. Okay, this is an eccentric more Okay,

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Speaker 1: So this is we're going to test. At the end

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Speaker 1: of Max Abelson will have been right if Trump spent

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Speaker 1: more than fifty nights at Trump Tower. It's a bold prediction,

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Speaker 1: but we're bold bold people here. I really like it.

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Speaker 1: And given the issues that will cause New York in

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Speaker 1: terms of security and traffic and everything, into prediction that

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Speaker 1: has ramifications. Did you see that Tiffany and co branded

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Speaker 1: the police barricks barricades brilliant And you know, analysts have

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Speaker 1: come out and warned that because that Tiffany store, which

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Speaker 1: is right there, a Trump tower right next to it

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Speaker 1: is their flagship store. It could materially hit earnings due

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Speaker 1: to the proximity next to Trump. It's not clear that

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Speaker 1: that's actually developing, but that is a concern of analysts.

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Speaker 1: Capitalism is amazing only only in New York City? Would

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Speaker 1: you have that baby blue Tiffany on the on the

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Speaker 1: police backcadse Alright, Max A Wilson, great prediction and looking

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Speaker 1: forward to seeing if it turns out right or wrong?

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Speaker 1: All right? Uh, Mike Reagan, what is your prediction for teventeen?

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Speaker 1: Yourur markets? Babing on the panel? Uh? What are we

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Speaker 1: going to be? H? What's the story going to be? Well,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna make a very cliche prediction. I know, I know,

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Speaker 1: and I also say I'm not confident in this, but

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Speaker 1: you do say, go out on the limb. I do

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Speaker 1: think we will finally see, if not a bear market

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Speaker 1: in stocks, a very sharp correction. Uh. And I'll tell

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Speaker 1: you why everybody and their brother has become so optimistic

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Speaker 1: about the Trump administration. It's interesting to me here was

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Speaker 1: a guy that from day one as a politician was underestimated.

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Speaker 1: You know, he's not gonna win a single state in

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Speaker 1: the primaries. He's not gonna take the primaries out, He'll

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Speaker 1: never win the election. And the sort of intersection of

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Speaker 1: politics and markets this year has been very fascinating. Um,

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Speaker 1: and both saw basically the death of conventional wisdom. You know,

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Speaker 1: all the poll numbers and Brexit. Uh, you know it

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Speaker 1: turned out to be wrong, not all of them, but

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Speaker 1: the you know, the consensus. Trump the you know, no

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Speaker 1: one really thought he would win. That turned out to

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Speaker 1: be wrong. Now I just feel like everyone's gone to

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Speaker 1: the opposite side of the boat. There. Their way too optimistic. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, I keep hearing the phrase animal spirits. Ray

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Speaker 1: Dalio used it recently to describe this exuberance over his policies,

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Speaker 1: and I just think, um, you know, we've had this

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Speaker 1: huge rally at the end of the year. Now, I

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Speaker 1: went from flat flat stock market September. Cent Lazo Berrini,

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Speaker 1: who's a money manager and analyst, who you know, I

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Speaker 1: have a lot of interest in, very very smart guy,

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Speaker 1: describes the phases of a bull market, and that exuberance

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Speaker 1: phase where you have this really last giant rally at

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Speaker 1: the end is often the sign of the end of

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Speaker 1: the bull market. And when I say a possible bear market,

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Speaker 1: I don't think I'm not even sure that the market

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Speaker 1: will well. If we talk about the market next December,

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Speaker 1: it will be down that much on the year. But

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Speaker 1: during the year, I just feel like there's bound to

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Speaker 1: be some disappointment that will cause maybe a ten to

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Speaker 1: drop in the market. Can I just jump in place.

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Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, as someone who had was

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Speaker 1: on the Trump beat all year, I think that Mike

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Speaker 1: is exactly right, and that the biggest phenomenon in the

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Speaker 1: sort of arc of storytelling of twenty six, both in

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Speaker 1: terms of Brexit and in terms of the U S election,

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Speaker 1: is just the inability of people to correctly price what

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Speaker 1: was actually going on um in terms of how this

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Speaker 1: would turn out. And I think that the one thing

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Speaker 1: that I think you have never underestimate his ability to

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Speaker 1: seemingly unbelievably against sort of all expectations of normalcy, normal discourse,

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Speaker 1: normal policy decision making, to sort of bump along in

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Speaker 1: a sort of vaguely positive way. When when I think

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Speaker 1: the biggest risk to the market is going to be

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Speaker 1: big political risk, you know, we look at the drone

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Speaker 1: that happened or some type of incident in the Middle

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Speaker 1: East or isis. But I think that when you look

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Speaker 1: at his policy and what he's been able to do

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Speaker 1: in the first sort of you know, six months, nine months,

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Speaker 1: if we do see the Affordable Care Act getting scale back,

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Speaker 1: and we do see a comprehensive tax reform package getting

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Speaker 1: put through, if we do see an infrastructure that actually,

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Speaker 1: you know, for me, when I look at it, I

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Speaker 1: can't decide whether the risk is to the upside of

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Speaker 1: the downside. You know, in terms of estic policy, I

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Speaker 1: see the market to the upside, and I see corporates

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Speaker 1: really seeing repatriation, investment and sort of sentiment being buoyed.

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Speaker 1: But then this really incalculable political um, foreign policy disaster

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Speaker 1: possibility that the market really does not seem to be

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Speaker 1: pricing in right now. And I see that as a

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Speaker 1: huge downside risk that no one's quite grappling with right absolutely,

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Speaker 1: even if it just ends up being China stopped buying

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Speaker 1: treasuries for example, uh, you know, as a sort of

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Speaker 1: protest measure. But you know, to me, even from the

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Speaker 1: policy standpoint, I mean, it's hard for me to believe

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Speaker 1: that this is a Trump Congress. It's still a Republican

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Speaker 1: controlled Congress. And it's hard for me to believe that

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Speaker 1: all these Republicans are gonna turn into Keynesians all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden and agree to blow out the deficit um

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Speaker 1: after shutting the government down because of the deficit. Uh

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Speaker 1: you know, in this last term, well, they turned into

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Speaker 1: Keynesians under George W. Bush, who inherited a surplus from

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Speaker 1: Bill in a situation where the US was actually talking

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Speaker 1: about buying back debt. Right, so they can get religion,

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Speaker 1: and that's not a reflection of their increasingly south base.

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Speaker 1: They can get religion, no pun intended, quite quickly. But

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Speaker 1: making to your point, I wonder whether we in the media,

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Speaker 1: let's acknowledge that and financial markets have had difficulty pricing

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Speaker 1: risk because we are concentrated in the northeast and the

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Speaker 1: West coast, and in the UK concentrated in the London area.

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Speaker 1: So to an extent, we were talking among ourselves, there

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Speaker 1: aren't that many financial heavyweight Wall Street prognosticators based in Appalachia,

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Speaker 1: and there aren't that many based in Stoke on Trent.

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Speaker 1: Is that part is that part of what's happeningsolutely, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think we have to be completely candid about that.

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Speaker 1: I think we have to be completely candid about how

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Speaker 1: this dynamic is completely upended the convention of reporting. And frankly,

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Speaker 1: some people just cannot accept that. They cannot accept what

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Speaker 1: they what they fail to accept is that people who

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Speaker 1: live in different parts of the country are frankly less progressive,

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Speaker 1: not just on a sort of um social mores things

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Speaker 1: like abortion or LGBT rights, they're just less progressive in

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Speaker 1: times in terms of believing in a vision of the

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Speaker 1: country that is very different than the Obama vision than

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Speaker 1: the Tony Blair vision of this country. Happened and I

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Speaker 1: think that is what the election really reawakened, is that,

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Speaker 1: guess what what you think in New York is very

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Speaker 1: different than what people think. And not just Appalachia, but

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Speaker 1: the submers, Milwaukee, the some of the northern subers, Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: So there hasn't been that great let's call it the

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Speaker 1: Great rotation and media. We'll have to see if disruptive

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Speaker 1: forces really upend this landscape going forward. How many Americans

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Speaker 1: have passports? I'm googling it as we start. Um, wait, wait,

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Speaker 1: let's get our let's I'm going there passport. Guess how many?

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Speaker 1: And I'm going there, Megan, because of that group you

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Speaker 1: described that you categorized as less progressive than people on

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Speaker 1: the northeast people on the west coast do they also

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Speaker 1: care less about the world and have less interest in

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Speaker 1: it's complexity and it's rich tapestry. That's why I asked

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Speaker 1: the passport question. It's thirty according toistics. But I think

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Speaker 1: that you know, this is why I've always strongly resisted

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Speaker 1: that that sort of move to characterize this as ignorant

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Speaker 1: or less worldly, it isn't. It's just that people are

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Speaker 1: familiar with what they're familiar and a lot of people

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Speaker 1: who voted for Trump live in less diverse communities. That's

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Speaker 1: just a fact. That's not a negative or a positive.

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Speaker 1: And the attempt to sort of put some normative stance

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Speaker 1: on this that they's somehow less or you know, that

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Speaker 1: there's a good or a bad I think that's sort

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Speaker 1: of the trap the media falls into. And I don't

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Speaker 1: think they're less interested. I think they're just they have

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Speaker 1: less experience with the rich tapestry, as you so eloquently

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Speaker 1: put it down, um, the rich tapestry of of the world.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, that doesn't make it a good thing or

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Speaker 1: a bad thing, Megan, can we get your your prediction

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Speaker 1: for two thousand seventeen. Yeah, unsurprisingly, it's going to keep

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Speaker 1: a little bit into politics. But I think that we

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Speaker 1: will see UM again a mispricing of political risk in

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Speaker 1: particularly in Europe. I was actually going through Goldman's predictions

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Speaker 1: this morning, and we have Teresa May speaking right now,

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Speaker 1: and I think there's a real chance of UM an

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Speaker 1: outlier event in Germany, France or the UK. I think

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Speaker 1: in France, yes, of course, Philon, will we we assume

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Speaker 1: we'll win in a run, you know, in a second

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Speaker 1: round against Marine le pat And in Germany this expectation

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Speaker 1: of Grand Coalition. I think Merkele is going to face

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Speaker 1: real challenges. I think that people are a little bit

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Speaker 1: too saying one about that, but I think the UK

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Speaker 1: is a real going to be really one to watch

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Speaker 1: this year. I think when you know Theresa May, yeah,

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Speaker 1: is vulnerable in terms of where the UK economy is

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Speaker 1: going to directionally trend, and I think that that is

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Speaker 1: still a story UM that's going to play out. And

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Speaker 1: I think we're going to see some more real, real

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Speaker 1: convulsions in Europe politically, not just because of populisma, because

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Speaker 1: of just simple really really bad politics. What would tail

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Speaker 1: risk in the UK look like, because already people assume

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Speaker 1: that there's going to be Article fifty is triggered sometime

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Speaker 1: in the early part of the year and then there's

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Speaker 1: going to be a very tough negotiation. What would be

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Speaker 1: a scenario that people aren't thinking could happen. Well, I

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Speaker 1: think that we it's been so buffeted by you know,

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Speaker 1: booming retail sales, by you know, um, sort of consumer contempt,

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Speaker 1: confidence by people actually not yet understanding what brags it.

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Speaker 1: I think once we get a few announcements such as

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Speaker 1: you know, big corporates leaving, big banks taking out, they

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Speaker 1: know that's going to happen. But I think the reality

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Speaker 1: of that happening, in the reality of sort of um,

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Speaker 1: you know, an ability to forge a new manufacturing community

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Speaker 1: in the North, you know, or of all this sort

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Speaker 1: of a technological investment in making Britain a hub of

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Speaker 1: entrepreneurship and you know tech innovation that's not going to happen,

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Speaker 1: so people that and and and that's and that's the

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Speaker 1: realism of it sinking in over time. And I think

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Speaker 1: that Britain's um. I think you know, obviously, as Dan knows,

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Speaker 1: and everyone who's is tracing house prices such a bedrock

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Speaker 1: of the British economy. We see further declines in that

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Speaker 1: particular in the higher end market, which essentially supports a

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Speaker 1: large degree of London. We have to remember, you know,

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Speaker 1: Financial Services GDP in London alone is still hovers it

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Speaker 1: something like across the country it's eleven still, you know,

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Speaker 1: a real erosion in that market is over and I

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Speaker 1: think over the next twelve months we will see that

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Speaker 1: is going to be causes a severe, severe disruptive elopment.

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Speaker 1: How do you think Theresa May is doing? Megan? The

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Speaker 1: government seems to tilt one way one week on Breasit,

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Speaker 1: but on other issues as well, then tilt the other

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Speaker 1: way the next week. It's probably fair to say she

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Speaker 1: didn't begin this year anticipating she would be in number

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Speaker 1: ten at Christmas. How is she doing? I mean, I

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Speaker 1: think when you talk to people, I mean, I don't

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Speaker 1: want to give my own verdict, but I think when

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Speaker 1: you talk to people, when you talk to sort of

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Speaker 1: you know, other senior, very senior politicians, her peers, or

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Speaker 1: senior corporate leaders in Britain or corpor leaders in America,

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Speaker 1: they are stunned by the seemingly lack of ability to

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Speaker 1: stick to a single plan by this sort of article

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Speaker 1: fifty heartenline to a softening once you see, you know,

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Speaker 1: sort of by election results and and and the Conservatives, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, sort of responding on a dime to how

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Speaker 1: the sentiment is. She does seem to be policy by

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Speaker 1: a central, underlying moral compass that the Brexit vote was,

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Speaker 1: you know, a vote to leave that there's no going

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Speaker 1: back for that. I think they were in a real

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Speaker 1: risk of that that as the economy I don't want

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Speaker 1: to say weekends, but in certain sections deteriorates, as you know,

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Speaker 1: Sterling continues, you know, to remain where it's at that

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Speaker 1: you know, you cannot take a single event, even as

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Speaker 1: an event as you know, cataclysmic as Brexit was, and

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Speaker 1: ignore the reality the economic reality facing your country and

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Speaker 1: or people in trying to reforge an independent Britain. That

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Speaker 1: will increasingly weigh on her and she's going to have

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Speaker 1: to have smarter people around her and she's going to

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Speaker 1: have to make much smarter decisions. Is she getting a

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Speaker 1: pass on this? Because labor is so weak, week is

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Speaker 1: not even a to begin to describe it. In terms

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Speaker 1: of formulating a credible and I'm not talking in terms

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Speaker 1: of party because party membership is up, but in terms

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Speaker 1: of forming a credible policy counterpoint to her. Yes, she's

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Speaker 1: getting a pass because you know that that party is

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Speaker 1: so splintered, particularly among the elite of the Labor Party,

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Speaker 1: not being able to weigh and be effectual. But I

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Speaker 1: think the UK again just continues to be one to watch,

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Speaker 1: just more of. It's just a fascinating political um journey

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Speaker 1: right now. All right, I like this call. I so

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Speaker 1: another year of political risk, this time in Europe. Dan Moss,

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Speaker 1: you have a little bit of pressure on you with

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Speaker 1: your prediction because your sixteen prediction ended up being really,

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Speaker 1: really good. So, um, you've set the bar high for

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Speaker 1: your self. What is it. I'm going to go out

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Speaker 1: on a limb and say that Donald Trump will reappoint

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Speaker 1: Janet Yellen as FED chair. Now, technically speaking, Janet Yellen's

359
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 1: term does not expire to January thirteen. However, typically by

360
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Speaker 1: the end of the year before the President of the

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Speaker 1: day has made his choice known. And I'm shaped somewhat

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Speaker 1: by history here and somewhat by what we can ascertain

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Speaker 1: so far from what the President elect has been saying

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Speaker 1: and doing. First history, presidents, regardless of what is said

365
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Speaker 1: on a campaign trail, tend to love low interest rates

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Speaker 1: when they're in office. There is also a track record

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Speaker 1: in recent decades of reappointing chairs appointed by your predecessor.

368
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Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan was under some pressure to replace Paul Volker.

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Speaker 1: Jim Baker, looking at the election climate, thought no, let's

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Speaker 1: keep Vulca. The last thing we want is a market upset.

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Speaker 1: As we're getting ready to run for re election. It

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Speaker 1: was thought that Bill Clinton at some point might appoint

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Speaker 1: a Democrat. Instead, he reappointed Greenspan not once, but twice.

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Speaker 1: Barack Obama reappointed Ben Banankey, and Ben Banankey wasn't interested

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Speaker 1: in the second term, so that gave Obama the opening

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Speaker 1: to a point um his own fit chair. So I'm

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Speaker 1: somewhat informed by history here. The other thing is, look,

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Speaker 1: it's probably fair to say, and Megan can guide me here.

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Speaker 1: Consistency has not necessarily been a hallmark of this political season,

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Speaker 1: none of this political season, but interestingly of Donald Trump.

381
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Speaker 1: Since his election, one of the things I've been most

382
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Speaker 1: fascinated by is people saying, oh my god, I can't

383
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Speaker 1: believe we have all these generals and Wall Street people

384
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Speaker 1: and in corporate leaders apport to the cabinet. It's like,

385
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Speaker 1: that's what he said he was going to do. He

386
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Speaker 1: was going to go to the military. He believed in it.

387
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Speaker 1: IF and approaching and incorporators, he is actually executed completely consistently.

388
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Speaker 1: He's tweeting policy by tweet this sort of crazy, sort

389
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Speaker 1: of early morning That's what he's been doing all along.

390
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Speaker 1: I think more people now are just wake up and

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Speaker 1: seeing it. So I think you're completely right in that

392
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Speaker 1: consistency hasn't been a hallmark of the season written large,

393
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Speaker 1: but of the approach he's taken. This is who he

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Speaker 1: is and I definitely don't expect him to change for

395
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Speaker 1: four more years. I'm glad you mentioned tweeting. There was

396
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Speaker 1: a lot of speculation before December's f o MC meeting

397
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Speaker 1: where they finally raised interest rates that the president elect

398
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Speaker 1: would start tweeting about the faith. Didn't happen. Silence from

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Speaker 1: the BlackBerry, Megan, Can we infer anything in that? I

400
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Speaker 1: think that you can infer nothing from his tweet policy.

401
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 1: I think it's more if he's paying attention and what

402
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Speaker 1: the New York Post has said or what he's agitated about.

403
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 1: You know, he tweets mostly over agitation, so we'll have

404
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Speaker 1: to see. I think that I think nothing is safe,

405
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Speaker 1: nothing is safe, and nothing is not safe from this.

406
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Speaker 1: And I you know, I think only in twenty years

407
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Speaker 1: time where we will be able to look back and

408
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Speaker 1: sort of really evaluate how the political landscape has been

409
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 1: transformed by people talking about sort of China and drones

410
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 1: or you know, you know, literally in the only medium

411
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Speaker 1: being Twitter. Dan, I really I think there's a great

412
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Speaker 1: call because again, another one of these calls will be

413
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Speaker 1: able to say this either happened or didn't happen. And

414
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Speaker 1: it's definitely counterintuitive. I've been in the camp that there's

415
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Speaker 1: a big clash that will inevitably see between the FED

416
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Speaker 1: and the administration this year. But I like your contrary

417
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Speaker 1: and take. And just in case people don't realize what

418
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Speaker 1: Dan's call was, for exactly a year ago, Brazil was

419
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Speaker 1: in all sorts of economic and political turmoil, and he

420
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Speaker 1: said that Brazil would recover. And I'm looking at w

421
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Speaker 1: c r S right now on the terminal, which is

422
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Speaker 1: the World currency ranking uh UM function, and the Brazilian

423
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Speaker 1: rail is the second best of the major currents of

424
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Speaker 1: all countries in the entire world, for only the Russian

425
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Speaker 1: bull did better this year. So hats off to you.

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Speaker 1: Great call, and that's why we saved the best for last.

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Speaker 1: Well he comes to my get out clothes. Oh no, don't, don't,

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00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 1: don't run it down. You're getting done. No caveats, no caveats.

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00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 1: All right, Well, thanks everyone, great, great stories and great predictions,

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00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: and we'll be back here next year to see who

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00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 1: is right and who is wrong ed. Hammond, thank you,

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00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,880
Speaker 1: Thank you. Mike Reagan, appreciate you, thank you. Oh thanks,

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00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 1: and you don't have to score my prediction and I

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00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 1: definitely will. Max A. Wilson, thanks at my pleasure. Megan Murphy,

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00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 1: Business Week, thank you, thank you. And Dan Mossara top Echo,

436
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,640
Speaker 1: our top eco person who nailed your twenty sixteen call.

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00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 1: We'll see if you could repeat it in okay, Joe. Um,

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00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 1: I've been taking notes. I've got these all down so

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00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: that we can come back in twelve months and see

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00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 1: whether or not they were correct. I know that's not

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00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 1: necessarily in the spirit of things, Um, but I can't

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00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: hold back my journalistic impulses to hold everyone to account. No,

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00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 1: we absolutely have to hold everyone to account, and we

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00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: have to uh publicly shame the people who've got them wrong,

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00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 1: and the people who got them right. We want them,

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00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 1: we want to loudly trumpet their brilliance so that for

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00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: the rest of their lives they could say, I was

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00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 1: the person on the Odd Lots podcast who got seventeen

449
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 1: exactly right. That's true. That should be on their business cards.

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00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 1: I really liked some of the specificity of the calls

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00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 1: that you know that Janet Yellen, will she be uh

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00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 1: reappointed or not? I mean, that's like a very black

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00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: or white question. Or will Nigel Frage appear on a

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00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: reality show like Dancing with the Stars or something. It'll

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00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 1: be very easy in seventeen to look back and say

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00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: this was either correct or not. Nigel Farrage Dancing with

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00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 1: the Stars. Yeah, you can totally that's a good Yeah,

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00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 1: I totally kind of it's a good one. Um. You know.

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00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 1: The one that I liked quite a lot was Mike

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00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 1: Reagan's call on a stock market correction, because you know,

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00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 1: you can see it's sort of coming towards the end

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00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 1: of sixteen, the fact that people were getting so enthused

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00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 1: about all these Trump related things that were yet to happen,

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00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:30,199
Speaker 1: you know, publishing their outlooks talking about massive physical stimulus.

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00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: Everyone really hanging on to that new market narrative, the

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00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 1: one we discussed with Mark Cudmore a little bit before then.

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00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 1: It just astounded me how quickly everything changed, absolutely, And

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00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: I really liked the way Mike brought in laslow Bernis

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00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:55,160
Speaker 1: framework of the various stages of a bull market. Uh,

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00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 1: and this idea that what we're seeing now is a

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00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 1: finely exuberance because we've had an incredible bull market for

472
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 1: almost seven years now, no more than seven years now,

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00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 1: and it has a reputation of being a hated bull

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00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 1: market because people missed it, the most hated, the most

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00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 1: hated bull market. And it feels like perhaps with the

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00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 1: latest leg up, that finally some of the haters are

477
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 1: coming over into the lover's category and that after all

478
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 1: these games, suddenly now they feel reasons to get bullish

479
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 1: and that the animal spirits are awake, which is kind

480
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: of hilarious, like maybe you should have had that view,

481
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 1: uh seven years ago. But Joe, as you like to

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00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 1: point out, like capitulation is usually the final thing that

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00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 1: happens right before it all falls apart. So if everyone

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00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 1: begins to feel optimistic. If the Bears really start to

485
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 1: go into hibernation, that's probably when we need to be careful. Well,

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00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: on that ut cautious, slightly gloomy note, Welcome to seventeen everyone,

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00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 1: Thank you for listening, and we'll be back next week

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00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 1: with another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joe

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00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: Why Isn't All? You can follow me on Twitter at

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00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: the Stalwart and I'm Tracy Alloway. I'm on Twitter at

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00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 1: Tracy Alloway. See you soon,