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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Joining us now,

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Speaker 2: someone absolutely brilliant on piecing together why you will see

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Speaker 2: plus I plus G PLUSNA. Stephen Stanley joins us from Santander.

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Speaker 2: I looked up on a map where Santander is. It's

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Speaker 2: on the northern shore of Spain on the Mediterranean. I

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Speaker 2: did not know that. It's like an ancient city. It's like,

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Speaker 2: you know, old Spain. It's not like condominiums, you know

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Speaker 2: down south south of Sevila.

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Speaker 3: In a lot of history.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Have you gone back to the mother country yet?

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Speaker 5: To me?

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Speaker 3: So, I've been to Madrid, Yeah, of course. A huge

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Speaker 3: campus there. Beautiful.

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Speaker 2: Great to have you here today. Steve Stanley, which of

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Speaker 2: the letters in the alphabet soup of GDP are you

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Speaker 2: most focused on right now?

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Speaker 3: I think you have to be focused on the biggest one,

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Speaker 3: which is C. Definitely consumption.

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Speaker 2: What's the dynamic you see right now?

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Speaker 3: So the consumer was propelled last year by a very

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Speaker 3: strong labor market, So income growth was very strong and

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Speaker 3: that supported good consumer spending. I think surprised almost everybody

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Speaker 3: on the upside. This year, income growth has slowed as

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Speaker 3: a labor market has cooled, but consumption has continued. So

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Speaker 3: in essence, I would argue consumers are spending a little

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Speaker 3: beyond their means. At this point, savings rate has decline

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Speaker 3: pretty sharply, so I think the consumer is likely to

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Speaker 3: slow down as we move forward, you know, into the

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Speaker 3: fourth quarter and early next year.

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Speaker 2: So what's your real GDP nomenal GDP view one year out?

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Speaker 3: I think we're gonna dip as low as four percent

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Speaker 3: or a little lower for a couple of quarters, and

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Speaker 3: then you know, once the nominal, Yeah, once these FED

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Speaker 3: cuts start to kick in later next year, I think

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Speaker 3: we'll start to creep higher again.

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Speaker 2: Dagan, this is important. This is something I'm not hearing

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Speaker 2: from a lot of people. We get under four percent.

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Speaker 1: Well, Stephen, I'm gonna be visiting Spain and Christmas, so

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Speaker 1: I'll inform you on santentia.

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Speaker 2: I appreciate that.

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Speaker 6: Look, let's talk about it.

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Speaker 2: When I wait a minute, you when I Steve, we

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Speaker 2: live for SaaS hours.

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Speaker 6: No stop.

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Speaker 2: Are you gonna spend five consecutive days at home?

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Speaker 5: No?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, sure of course I love to spend time at home.

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Speaker 1: I mean, but let's get off that, Stephen. I have

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Speaker 1: to ask. I'm reading your let latest note ten FMC

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Speaker 1: meetings between now and the end of next year. The

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Speaker 1: medium dot is only one hundred and fifty bases points

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Speaker 1: below we are currently. What does that mean half of

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Speaker 1: those meetings they're only cutting by twenty five I mean

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Speaker 1: what I mean?

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Speaker 6: What does that mean to you?

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Speaker 3: I think that the idea here, it seems like with

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Speaker 3: this fifty basis point cut is let's rush at the beginning,

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Speaker 3: get closer to where we think we should be, and

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Speaker 3: then we can slow down as we go forward.

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Speaker 2: Remember it wasn't so long ago.

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Speaker 3: That the dots, as well as the consensus forecast amongst

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Speaker 3: private economists, had the fed going just twenty five at

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Speaker 3: every other meeting and doing that basically until they got

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Speaker 3: down to, you know, three percent ish. I think now

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Speaker 3: it feels like we're going to have fast at the

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Speaker 3: beginning and then we're going to probably devolve back to

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Speaker 3: that by sometime next year.

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Speaker 1: So does that mean a higher terminal rate in you

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Speaker 1: review or do you think that you know, we could

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Speaker 1: still see three percent.

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Speaker 4: I know.

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Speaker 3: I think it's it's between in my view, neutrals between

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Speaker 3: three and three and a half. I think we end

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Speaker 3: the cycle a little above three. But in that general neighborhood,

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Speaker 3: so they had a little over two hundred basis points

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Speaker 3: to go, they just bit off fifty in one and

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Speaker 3: by Is.

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Speaker 2: The effect to our listeners and viewers linear with those

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Speaker 2: rate cuts or is there a convexity or is it

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Speaker 2: quadratic in that the more they go, the bigger the wallop.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it depends on what rates we're talking

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Speaker 3: about that are relevant to consumers. I mean, if you're

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Speaker 3: talking about mortgage rates, which are tied really to the

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Speaker 3: long end of the of the market, that hasn't moved

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Speaker 3: very much since the meeting, So mortgage rates have been

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Speaker 3: coming off already, but they haven't moved further on the

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Speaker 3: back of this fifty basis point move. If you're talking

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Speaker 3: about credit card rates or other rates that are floating

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Speaker 3: immediate impact.

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Speaker 2: What is business going to do here? Damien just mentioned

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Speaker 2: that M and A is really picking up. There's an

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Speaker 2: animal spirit, I guess to our nominal GDP. But the

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Speaker 2: I eleven percent whatever of the economy, what does business

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Speaker 2: investment do here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it. Certainly rate cuts are going to

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Speaker 3: be cheered. I will say in the short run, I

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Speaker 3: suspect that there's going to be at least some businesses

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Speaker 3: that are sitting on their hands until they see the

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Speaker 3: results of the election. So that is potentially a short

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Speaker 3: term drag. Although you know you mentioned M and A,

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Speaker 3: it may very well be that there are people that

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Speaker 3: want to get their deals done before a new administration

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Speaker 3: comes in, you know, hoping that they can get it

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Speaker 3: approved and get it locked away before there's a potential

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Speaker 3: for a change in regime one way or the other

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Speaker 3: that might affect that.

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Speaker 1: Stephen, in the twelve months after the Fed first cuts rates,

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Speaker 1: you know, commodities tend to perform really, really well. Do

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Speaker 1: you believe this time the same thing's going to happen

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Speaker 1: or is this time a little bit different there?

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, every cycle is a little bit different.

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Speaker 3: I think for commodities generally right now, one of the

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Speaker 3: big fundamentals that people are keeping a close eye on

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Speaker 3: as a Chinese economy, so there's a lot of concern

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Speaker 3: about weakness there. They're obviously the biggest demand source for

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Speaker 3: so many industrial comodity.

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Speaker 6: You have to pay attention to China though, certainly for commodities.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely. Let me give you doctor Wong's thesis here. As

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Speaker 2: she sated last week, Anna one looks at three months

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Speaker 2: moving average down firm payrolls one hundred and sixteen thousand,

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Speaker 2: that's squishy with revisions, and then she models in the

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Speaker 2: highly debated birth death model and all the rest of

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Speaker 2: the noise. Stephen Stanley, you're expert at can you revise

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Speaker 2: down one sixteen to where this is already a nonfirm

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Speaker 2: payrolls report that causes concern.

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Speaker 3: You You can certainly make that assumption. I don't know

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Speaker 3: if you can make it safely. It's not unreasonable, but

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Speaker 3: it's a bit of a risk to extrapolate the downward

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Speaker 3: revisions that we have that go through March of last

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Speaker 3: year forward Beyond that, I think it's fair to say

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Speaker 3: that the more than likely the direction of the revisions

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Speaker 3: is negative. But you know, magnitude on pegging a magnitude,

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Speaker 3: it's all magnitude. Yeah, right, exactly.

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Speaker 1: Well, Stephen, we have a core pc ePrint coming in

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Speaker 1: on Friday. The market's looking for I think two point

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Speaker 1: six percent or two point seven percent. I think we

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Speaker 1: were two point six last time. But if you look

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Speaker 1: at quite frankly three and six month run rates, they've

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Speaker 1: slowed materiously materially, and the market's pricing and a softer

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Speaker 1: CPI over the next twelve months. What are your views

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Speaker 1: on inflation here in the US? Do you think it's

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Speaker 1: stay sticky at current levels?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: So, I think as it relates to inflation, we've had

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Speaker 3: way too much of just extrapolating the last data point.

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Speaker 3: So we had the second half of last year core

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Speaker 3: inflation was very low, and everybody came into twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: four just assuming that inflation was dead. Then we had

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Speaker 3: three or four bad numbers to start the year and oh, wait,

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Speaker 3: inflation is you know, is going to be three percent forever.

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Speaker 3: Now we've had a couple of more benign readings and

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Speaker 3: we're ready to declare victory again. And I think the

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Speaker 3: problem is that a lot of that volatility is coming

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Speaker 3: in some of the most noisy categories, things like used

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Speaker 3: car prices and airfares that you can't extrapolate forward. So

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Speaker 3: I think I think that the reality is somewhere in

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Speaker 3: between what we saw in the first four months of

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Speaker 3: the year what we've seen since then.

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Speaker 2: Haven't asked this week. We get so many other distractions

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Speaker 2: going on. How about the real world of the inflation report.

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Speaker 2: I believe we see it on Friday as well. Does

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Speaker 2: that have the opportunity to surprise us or is it

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Speaker 2: a snooze fest.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's probably a snooze fest. But I'll tell you

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Speaker 3: the you know that. So the consensus is point two

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Speaker 3: on the core. But we had Governor Waller who spoke

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Speaker 3: on Friday and he said that the fed staff model

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Speaker 3: is telling them that it's going to be point one four. Now,

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Speaker 3: the difference between point one four and point one six

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Speaker 3: in reality isn't that much, but it makes a big

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Speaker 3: difference in the markets because all they see is point

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Speaker 3: one or point two.

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Speaker 2: There's a snapshot into the acuity of Steven Stanley Award

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Speaker 2: winning on Wall Street going out to two decimal points.

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Speaker 2: It's like an F one race or something. You know,

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Speaker 2: first place in second place is three thousands of a

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Speaker 2: second or whatever.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Lando Norris McLaren landa redol.

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Speaker 2: This week I was. I went Singapore.

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Speaker 6: Oh my god, it was so good. You know us Grams.

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Speaker 6: He's coming up in less than a month, West Texas going.

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Speaker 2: You're going everywhere else? Why are you going to Austin?

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Speaker 2: Steve Stanley, thank you so much for sint Tandra. Our

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Speaker 2: conversation today on being in stocks. John Stolfus has been

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Speaker 2: brilliant at Oppenheimer and Company, or Chief investment Strategists, John Stolfus,

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Speaker 2: this bullmarket. How has it changed? What is the character forward?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think the character that's changed very much, of course,

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Speaker 5: is the Fed made its first cut on its benchmark

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Speaker 5: rate since March of twenty twenty, as I recall, which

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Speaker 5: is a dramatic change, and we were expecting twenty five BIPs.

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Speaker 5: They went for fifty. We think that was to escentually

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Speaker 5: that this is a down payment, is what we called it.

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Speaker 5: We're beginning to see others using that term, but we

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Speaker 5: think we were the first a down payment for Wall

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Speaker 5: Street and Main Street. Essentially a message from the Fed.

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Speaker 5: The FED hike cycle is essentially beginning to end. Here's

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Speaker 5: the first cut, Jamie, we.

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Speaker 2: Think it, yeah, Jamian March of twenty twenty up one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty two percent. The SPX is up twenty

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Speaker 2: two percent annualized. Wow.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I mean, John, you know you have to

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Speaker 1: help me kind of. I'm looking at this week. I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at data on the consumption side. At the end

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Speaker 1: of the week, I'm looking at housing on Wednesday. But

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Speaker 1: you know, we have a lot of FED speak. We

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Speaker 1: have gulesby Bostic, Bowman, cash Car, you name it. I mean,

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Speaker 1: just how focused are you going to be on some

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Speaker 1: of these FED speakers in the week after the FED cut.

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Speaker 5: Oh, we certainly will be listening. We a lot of

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Speaker 5: our fundamental strategy is based on economic data, not just

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Speaker 5: the view in the rearview mirror, but also what it

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Speaker 5: suggests for going forward and the importance of the opinions

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Speaker 5: within the Federal Reserve. I've been doing this for forty

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Speaker 5: one years now, and I learned early on, when Volker

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Speaker 5: was in his second term, that you better understand the

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Speaker 5: FED and the chair of the FED if you're going

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Speaker 5: to play in equities or any markets for that matter.

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Speaker 6: But what we'd have.

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Speaker 5: To say, Bostic appears to be what we're listening to,

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Speaker 5: and we think, you know, this was a reasonable cut

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Speaker 5: and it had to do with the Chair has also

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Speaker 5: mentioned the Fed is focusing on both of its mandates

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Speaker 5: and this one has to do with jobs, and the

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Speaker 5: jobs were softening the Beijes book, the last Beige Book

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Speaker 5: showed weakness across the regions. I think that was the

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Speaker 5: response that took it to fifty pips. But we think

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Speaker 5: overall it's good for equities. Smalls and mids might actually

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Speaker 5: begin to see sustainable rallies. Yeah, if we looked at

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Speaker 5: Friday's performance, but let's see what generally speaking, it looks

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Speaker 5: better for them.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Stolfus is so old. When he entered the market,

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Speaker 2: Body Tyler was on top of billboard which totally clips

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Speaker 2: to the heart.

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Speaker 6: John.

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Speaker 2: That's how old Stulfus is. John.

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Speaker 1: My question is this is this just you know, Chair Powell,

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Speaker 1: you know Kingdom, dragging the committee members along with him,

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Speaker 1: or do they really have their own opinion in this market?

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Speaker 6: I mean, come on, get real here. I mean isn't

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Speaker 6: this just Powell?

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Speaker 4: Oh?

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Speaker 2: I think they.

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Speaker 5: I think they all have their own opinions, and if anything,

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Speaker 5: the Bernanky legacy opens it up. So we got all

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Speaker 5: this Fed speak, all these different opinions, but the general

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Speaker 5: opinions seems to be data dependent. Data improving. The two

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Speaker 5: percent tard is still elusive in terms of the headline number.

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Speaker 5: But where we're headed to is a better situation because

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Speaker 5: the FED has been it really has been, while remaining

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Speaker 5: remarkably sensitive to its dual mandate and the effects both

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Speaker 5: in terms of delay and the effects that it has

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Speaker 5: on both jobs and borrowing costs.

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Speaker 2: Tape recorders running. John stolefis, where are we twelve months

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Speaker 2: from now? Frame out the stock market out one year already?

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Speaker 2: You know time.

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Speaker 5: I usually prefer to do that in December because but

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Speaker 5: then this year we'll be beyond the election. But I

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Speaker 5: would suspect likely higher as long as we don't get

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Speaker 5: that Barton Biggs and the old days would have called

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Speaker 5: a boat from the blue or a sock to the jaw.

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Speaker 5: We'd have to think that things are just basically improving

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Speaker 5: if we can just keep it moderate growth with resilience

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Speaker 5: in jobs and economic growth, and corporate earnings. I think

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Speaker 5: we're good to go as long as we avoid getting

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Speaker 5: complacent and as long as we can avoid having the

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Speaker 5: vote from the blue hit US. I think considerably higher

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Speaker 5: and well beyond the fifty nine hundred target probably.

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Speaker 1: John, just Holpful, I'm curious just how focus are you

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Speaker 1: on what's going on outside of the US. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we've got other Central Bank meetings Mexico, Switzerland, Sweden, Australia

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Speaker 1: this week, you know, are you focused on any of

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Speaker 1: that or are they all just following the Fed?

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Speaker 2: Oh?

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Speaker 5: Most certainly. We're globalists, you know, and we take a

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Speaker 5: look at the ECB and the problems they have within

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Speaker 5: their their multinational economy, the things that are occurring in

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Speaker 5: post brexit UK, and what's going on in Asia around

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Speaker 5: China as well as a g ping's regime. And it's

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Speaker 5: what we do see is really a mix and match

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Speaker 5: in some ways, but overall a desire to bring rates down.

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Speaker 5: But in some cases it's just it's still a little

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Speaker 5: bit too early, and in other cases maybe they're behind

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Speaker 5: the curve a bit.

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Speaker 2: John silphas quickly here on MEG seven. What do you see?

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Speaker 5: I see the Bag seven continuing to be have a

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Speaker 5: good place on stage, but sharing the spotlight with other sectors.

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Speaker 5: When it comes to artificial intelligence, it's already here. What

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Speaker 5: comes in the future, all the star Trek kind of stuff,

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Speaker 5: I'm showing my aging or are the star Wars still

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Speaker 5: showing my aging again? But my point is essentially it's

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Speaker 5: a reality today. It makes businesses more efficient. All eleven

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Speaker 5: sectors are the other nine versus the communication services that

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Speaker 5: information technology are very well poised to benefit and we

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Speaker 5: believe have already benefited in the efficiencies. The corporations have

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Speaker 5: had to navigate relatively tough waters through the Great Financial

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Speaker 5: Crisis and most recently the COVID situation, the supply chain disruption,

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Speaker 5: and dealing with overstimulation of the economy, and now into

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Speaker 5: a new world.

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Speaker 2: John, thank you. John Stulfus Optimistic is with opthirty. Henrietta

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Speaker 2: Trace joins us not from Veda Partners. Henriette I got

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Speaker 2: a really serious timely question all sorts of pundits writing

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Speaker 2: this morning that the vice president had a pretty good

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Speaker 2: weekend versus what the former president's doing. Fine, but she

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Speaker 2: is to make a switch. She's got a lot of

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Speaker 2: fat cat supporters. She wants to do an economic plan,

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Speaker 2: but will it be too progressive to liberal for her

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Speaker 2: fat cat supporters.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't look like they think that way with their pocketbooks,

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Speaker 4: if I'm not mistaken. Kamala Harris's latest fund raising round

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Speaker 4: with Wall Street folks was twenty seven million dollars, so

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Speaker 4: it seems like her adjustment moving off of a thirty

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Speaker 4: five percent corporate tax rate and down to twenty eight

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Speaker 4: percent is much more palatable to those donors. The capital

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Speaker 4: gains tax rate has dropped from thirty nine point twenty

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Speaker 4: eight percent, so it seams working.

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Speaker 2: How about salt tax? Within the drive time here? Oh,

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Speaker 2: this is Damien from North of New York rights in

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Speaker 2: how about that salt tax tax? Miss trays? Can Vice

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Speaker 2: President Harris get over to an elimination of this ownerous

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Speaker 2: tax and select blue states?

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Speaker 4: Well, I'd go a step further and say that the

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Speaker 4: House Democratic Ways and Means Committee is already over it.

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Speaker 4: I've been hearing from staff there for the last six

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Speaker 4: months that they are very happy to repeal the ten

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Speaker 4: thousand dollars cap. They have been that way for quite

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Speaker 4: some time. It's a one point two trillion dollar revenue racer.

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Speaker 4: But if you can go after some other items and

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Speaker 4: increase the deficit by you know, a trillion, two trillion,

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Speaker 4: maybe two and a half.

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Speaker 7: You don't need to do the salt cap going forward.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so Damian, you can't go home now, Yeah, no, Henriette,

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Speaker 1: you really need to clear up for maybe seven swing states,

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Speaker 1: namely Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina and Nevada.

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Speaker 1: You know what theme should Harris be playing to? Is

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Speaker 1: it going to be Roe v Wade? National security? Is

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Speaker 1: it inflation? Is it growth here in the US?

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Speaker 6: Is it taxes?

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Speaker 1: You know what themes that you really need to hit

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Speaker 1: on to appeal to those voters.

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Speaker 7: I would say first amongst equals is abortion.

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Speaker 4: The gender divide in polling data on all these swing

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Speaker 4: states and nationally is really stark, and women make up

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Speaker 4: fifty two percent of the electorate. Kamala Harris pulls way

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Speaker 4: above Donald Trump on the issue of abortion, which is

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Speaker 4: now the number one issue for American voters that are

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Speaker 4: female and second only to the economy in New York

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Speaker 4: Times polling data, So that's probably number one. Immigration at

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Speaker 4: the southern border has been reduced back to pre twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty one levels, so it's not the same level of

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Speaker 4: urgency in terms of severe numbers that we've seen in

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Speaker 4: the past. And Trump has migrated the conversation over to

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Speaker 4: things that have been verified as false, such as Haitians

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Speaker 4: eating hats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio. So I think

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Speaker 4: that's new to the conversation without Harris having to really

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Speaker 4: try very hard. On the economy as well, you have

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Speaker 4: positive data sets that is reducing the amount of urgency

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Speaker 4: that independent voters feel about the economy right now.

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Speaker 1: Well, Henrietta to you and week here in New York.

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Speaker 1: So you know I have to ask you about national

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Speaker 1: security as well. Where does that stack up? I mean,

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Speaker 1: where does Israel stack up? Where does Ukraine stack up?

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Speaker 6: Relative to the brass Almost nowhere.

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Speaker 4: I mean, American voters just do not follow foreign policy

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Speaker 4: the way that they follow other domestic issues.

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Speaker 7: That's a perennial problem.

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Speaker 4: There are voters in Michigan and Wisconsin who will follow

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Speaker 4: this issue closely. But look at how many voters are

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Speaker 4: in the third party base right now. It's down to

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Speaker 4: two percent Jill Stein voters, for example, in states like

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Speaker 4: North Carolina and Wisconsin. That is your sort of outrage

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Speaker 4: vote around Israel, Palestine, and it's just not present at

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Speaker 4: this time.

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Speaker 2: I look Henrietta, where we are in Gregvillier with this

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Speaker 2: wonderful AGF don't really emphasizes this morning that the percolation

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Speaker 2: state to state is about nothing but abortion. Do you

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Speaker 2: agree with? That is the key debate?

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Speaker 7: I think it's the key debate.

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Speaker 4: Indeed, what I find really valuable to speak with investors

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Speaker 4: about this who may not have it on top of

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Speaker 4: their radar, is to think about.

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Speaker 7: What happened in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 4: We had nine percent inflation, surging migration at the US border.

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Speaker 4: Abbott was sending migrants to Martha's vineyard, and Republicans still

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Speaker 4: got walloped in the House and Senate. That's all the

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Speaker 4: message you need. When female voters are thoroughly galvanized across

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Speaker 4: the nation, which is what we're seeing from voter registration data,

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Speaker 4: fundraising data, the urgency that Democrats and independents feel to

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Speaker 4: vote Democrats in particular is comparable only to the two

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Speaker 4: thousand and eight bomb a week and then one more

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Speaker 4: thing I'd add is that Harris's surge in favorability is

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Speaker 4: comparable only to Bush's posts nine to eleven in his favor,

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Speaker 4: So there's a lot of movement there.

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Speaker 2: Cook political report, here's what they got is toss up

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Speaker 2: Arizona eleventh, Georgia sixteenth, Michigan fifteenth, Nevada sixth, North Carolina sixteenth,

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Speaker 2: Pennsylvania nineteenth, Wisconsin tenth. Do you have polling in those

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Speaker 2: districts on this key issue of abortion.

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Speaker 7: Yes, they're polling. It's very limited though.

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Speaker 4: House pulling data in particular is really difficult to pull off.

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Speaker 7: The economy is always going to be number one.

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Speaker 4: But the issue there, as we've seen for the last

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Speaker 4: couple of months now, is that that's really sort of

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Speaker 4: a partisan lean. If you're a Republican, you think the

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Speaker 4: economy is terrible, if you're a Democrat, you think it's fine.

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Speaker 4: The issue is really independent and suburban voters who are

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Speaker 4: trending in favor of Kamala Harris by anywhere between eight

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Speaker 4: and thirteen points right now, including in a lot of

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Speaker 4: those swing districts, and that's what we're watching. A key

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Speaker 4: piece to watch is the potential scenario where Donald Trump

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Speaker 4: wins the election, Publicans win the Senate, which is my

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Speaker 4: expectation with ninety percent odds, but Democrats pick up the

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Speaker 4: House That's something that I talked about with investors a

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Speaker 4: lot on the road last week.

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Speaker 7: I think the odds are rising.

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Speaker 4: It's because Democrats have so much money to spend down

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Speaker 4: ballot that they can bolster and expand the map in

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Speaker 4: these critical house races.

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Speaker 1: Henrietta, just talk to us about the timeline here as

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Speaker 1: we get into the election in early November, Like, what

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Speaker 1: you know, what data points are you most looking at?

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Speaker 1: I mean, is it going to be the payroll prints

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Speaker 1: in the first week of October? I mean, no more debates.

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Speaker 1: I mean what dates really stand out to you as

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Speaker 1: we kind of head on over the next thirty days.

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Speaker 7: Man, I wish there was the payroll data.

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Speaker 4: I just don't see that transcending to the American voter.

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Speaker 4: You know, they're sitting where between four and eleven percent

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Speaker 4: of the electorate that's undecided right now.

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Speaker 7: Fed me and I think that you hear from the Kamala.

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Speaker 4: Harris campaign is that they're looking for millions of eyeballs

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Speaker 4: at a time. So that means they're looking to do

441
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 4: and Trump is also looking to do a sixty minutes

442
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 4: interview in late October, potentially eyeing in October twenty fifth

443
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 4: debate between Trump and Harris, and then of course the

444
00:22:58,480 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 4: October first.

445
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 7: Debate between Vans. And it's really the.

446
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 2: Next thing, just how moments ago New York Times, Siena.

447
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 2: I believe this is moments ago Trump leads Harris fifty

448
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 2: to forty five percent in Arizona. When you see a

449
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,199
Speaker 2: poll like that, Henriette, we're all benumbed by it. I

450
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 2: mean it's like, you know, it's just too much. Does

451
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,959
Speaker 2: that pole have veracity? Do you plus or minus all

452
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 2: the statistical noise?

453
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 4: I think the New York Times polling data is extraordinary.

454
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 4: I mean they're calling two hundred and fifty thousand people

455
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 4: or one hundred and fifty thousand people, two hundred and

456
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 4: five phone call, five thousand phone calls just to get

457
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 4: folks on the line to answer these calls. But to

458
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 4: illustrate how difficult the polling data is. The Arizona example

459
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 4: you use is perfect. Before the debate it was Kamala

460
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 4: Harris plus five, and now after the debate it's Trump

461
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 4: plus five. This has an extraordinarily difficult science. I think

462
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,439
Speaker 4: it's important to take the averages Harris has worked to

463
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 4: do in Arizona as the bottom line.

464
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 2: Thank you, I'm sorry, Henriette, my answers to ignore them.

465
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 2: All Heny had a trace. We do not ignore. She

466
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 2: was the Veda partners in Just Brilliant Year and the

467
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 2: front pages of Lisa Matteo or Lisa what do you have?

468
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 8: Okay, so we know the NFL played its first regular

469
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 8: season game in Brazil right earlier this month you had

470
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 8: the Eagles and the Green Bay Packers. It was September sixth,

471
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 8: But this weekend the Journal actually had a write up

472
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 8: where they spoke with fans and they tried to get

473
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 8: reaction from it because this is huge soccer country, right, Okay,

474
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 8: so a lot of people there. They described the game

475
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 8: as this confusing, slow moving match by men dresses astronauts.

476
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 8: They didn't really understand it, but the fans were excited.

477
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,880
Speaker 8: I mean they turned up about three hours before kickoff,

478
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 8: so that was some of the things they did.

479
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,160
Speaker 2: The London football worked well.

480
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 1: It certainly hasn't for all our listeners down in so

481
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,439
Speaker 1: Polo and Rio. I will be in town from the

482
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 1: twelfth to the eighteenth of October. So if you need

483
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 1: any learning how to enjoy the game of American football,

484
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 1: I will be there. I will be on hand and

485
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 1: look it's not all about Jaselle Bunch and Tom Brady anymore. Right,

486
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 1: there's bigger issues at large here. Can't wait to get

487
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 1: down there.

488
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 8: Taylor Swish is the bigger is Bruno Marris.

489
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 6: Bruno Mars is coming down to sell Pola.

490
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 5: No.

491
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 1: But it's the bigger issue is the New York Jets.

492
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 1: The New York Jets look great. And for our friends

493
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 1: in Brazil, you know we like to wear green.

494
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay. Next, where are you going to be in Brazil?

495
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 6: Twelvey the eighteen twelve.

496
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 1: My mom's gonna come with me all she's going to Yeah,

497
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 1: miss my mother. Yeah, she's seventy something years old. We're

498
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: gonna get her on a plane. We're going to get

499
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 1: her down there.

500
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 6: She's never been. Should be fun.

501
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 8: You're a little mom. Next, okay, we've been talking about

502
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 8: the commute in the city, right nightmare. This week the

503
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 8: best City for Commuters. Wall Street Journal came out with it.

504
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:55,719
Speaker 8: So it asks people what's more important to you when

505
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 8: it comes to commute? Is it time or cost? Think

506
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 8: about it, what's more important? So a lot of people

507
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 8: said it's their time that counts more. Columbus, Ohio, Memphis, Tennessee,

508
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 8: Milwaukee some of the fastest commutes about twenty two minutes

509
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 8: one way, that's what it takes. Fort Worth, Texas Detroit

510
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 8: average about twenty seven miles an hour. But some cities

511
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 8: have a lot of faster roots. They say it's just

512
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 8: the well run published transit system.

513
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 2: Does everybody understand I'm hardwired that you have the worst

514
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 2: community of the year every day we find, folks, a

515
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:32,640
Speaker 2: correlation of our glorious ratings to length to commute.

516
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 6: Well, nice, changible.

517
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 1: I think I think we can't ignore the fact there's

518
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:36,920
Speaker 1: going to be a lot more listeners on Apple CarPlay

519
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: for us today because un week is a nightmare for

520
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,360
Speaker 1: commuters here in the city of New York. And unfortunately

521
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 1: I drove in today's long trip. Take the train, it's

522
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: too early.

523
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 6: I can't the trains that run that are my.

524
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 2: Record, folks. And this was to go to an international

525
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 2: relations meeting at Michael's Restaurant overs you know, Center West Side.

526
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 2: I had to take three cabs. Once you take the cab, stuff,

527
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 2: you pay the cab, you get out, you you walk

528
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 2: two blocks, get another cab.

529
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 1: Go. And it was just who are the worst commutes?

530
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 1: Forget about the best? Who are the worst commutes New York, right.

531
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 8: Yah, saying Okay, so we were talking about tech jobs

532
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:21,120
Speaker 8: not too long ago, but they're saying millennials are even

533
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 8: getting too old to land those tech jobs. Tech workers

534
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 8: under twenty five becoming more common. The portion of workers

535
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 8: older than forty is shrinking, so they're looking for that younger.

536
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 6: Wor fourteen years old.

537
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 8: They're saying, they're just more adverse to everything's going on

538
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,199
Speaker 8: right about ai They're just saying, the younger generation is

539
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 8: a little bit more in tune with tech than the

540
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 8: older generation.

541
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 3: But we shall see.

542
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 2: My brother, who's done better than me, is a mentor

543
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 2: to young techie types. Okay, And it's sort of like

544
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 2: the one of my book of the summer Chip Wars.

545
00:27:56,080 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 2: There's no institutional understanding about Taiwan's conductor until happened, and

546
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 2: my brother's employed is a fossil to help the young

547
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:11,199
Speaker 2: crew that you're talking about to Actually they don't know

548
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 2: what cobol is or for trainers.

549
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 6: Well, well I can say this.

550
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 1: You know, I maybe fifty years old, but my artificial

551
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,360
Speaker 1: intelligence bot looks like he's nineteen, sounds like he's nineteen.

552
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: He is a stud and I think he can get

553
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 1: a job. You don't have a butt, of course you do.

554
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 1: You haven't been. You haven't been machine learning a bot

555
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 1: all this time, like your own little personal Jarvis that

556
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 1: talks to you and takes out the garbage and does

557
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 1: all the things you need. Orders your coffee for you,

558
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: coffee and water as you will.

559
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 2: Don't you have Alexa?

560
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 6: I do? Everyone has Alexa. Everyone has Alexa. Of course

561
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 6: I do. It's iPhones, guys, it's everyone has Alexa. I

562
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 6: mean I don't use it.

563
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 2: But I have Alexa. For three days. I opened the

564
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 2: door and there's four bags of Parina dog chow and

565
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 2: vet Bill's order in this stuff.

566
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 1: You know, I gotta tell you, guys, you should watch

567
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:00,120
Speaker 1: out for this scam. We have been getting all these

568
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 1: deliveries from Amazon right and we like where they come from.

569
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 1: They're not showing up on our orders. We were told

570
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 1: that those are people who are ordering stuff so that

571
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 1: when you scan the cues code to return it, it

572
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 1: gets all your information off your phone. So I guess

573
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: the dirty little secret is if you have all this

574
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 1: stuff coming in from Amazon that you didn't order, just

575
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 1: take it and use it, because I mean, you can't

576
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 1: return it.

577
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 8: Is that one, oh no, no no. October Fest kicked

578
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 8: off in Germany. Okay, but the Associated Press they said

579
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 8: the world's oldest were where they spoke with it. A

580
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 8: lot more people are going for non alcoholic beers. That's

581
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 8: the new trend. At Octoberfest, all but two of the

582
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 8: large eighteen tenths of that festival offer the drink. It's

583
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 8: a sixteen day celebration. But here's the thing. It's not cheaper.

584
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 8: It's the same price as the regular rice beer, but

585
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 8: you just won't get the hangover. But it's the first

586
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 8: time that an alcohol free beer garden opened in Munich.

587
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 8: So October starting.

588
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 1: To Have you ever been to the Hoffbay House in

589
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 1: the the beer hallboy, well there's one, or the Augustina

590
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:02,239
Speaker 1: Brown and Salsburg. Let me tell you something about these

591
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 1: beer houses. There's dark and there's light. There's no alcohol

592
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 1: free there. So you know I'm gonna catcheade on that story.

593
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 1: I mean, who is drinking alcohol free beer for lunch?

594
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 1: I mean when you can have a you know, nice

595
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 1: Coca cola or something sweat.

596
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 2: I did see an article in the Zeitgeist where they're

597
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 2: trying to shrink the size of the glass and British pubs.

598
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 2: They're trying to make.

599
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 7: Is the like a screener?

600
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.

601
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 6: Apparently Tim Stanbeck likes alcohol free beer.

602
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 2: We say thank you to Lisa Mateo for the newspapers.

603
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best

604
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also

605
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast

606
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from

607
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in

608
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 2: New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

609
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen. And always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

610
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app