1 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Thursday morning 2 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: edition of the Daily Juice podcast. 3 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 2: My name is Matt Paroltz. 4 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:19,239 Speaker 1: You guys can follow me on Twitter at sports Talk 5 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:23,680 Speaker 1: Matt every morning here on YouTube, Betting Pros NFL, Betting 6 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: Pros at NFL, Beta Pros on Twitter, Betting Pros NFL 7 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 1: at Betting Pros NFL on Twitter. Yeah, I'll get that 8 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: right at Sports Talk Matt is my handle on Twitter. 9 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: We're here wherever you get your audio podcasts. And you 10 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: guys know that bet MGM is a sponsor. You got 11 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,920 Speaker 1: that offer five dollars if you bet side total money 12 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:41,879 Speaker 1: line on the football games tonight, you guys will win 13 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: one hundred dollars if any team scores a touchdown in 14 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: the games. You're wagering one hundred bucks. Juice one hundred 15 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: that promo code from bet MGM. All right, So for 16 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:52,599 Speaker 1: a second straight day, I've been doing a little bit 17 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 1: of an experiment. I've been showing you my entire betting 18 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 1: card because well, people were questioning, are you really making 19 00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 1: the waitress? 20 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 2: Matt? I don't know. 21 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 1: You're telling us after the fact, did are personal plays 22 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:07,319 Speaker 1: and you weren't declaring it public? To everyone, so I've 23 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 1: been declaring it publicly to everyone. So the pod last 24 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: night went two and two, we get one over right, 25 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 1: one over wrong, we get one side right, we get 26 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 1: one side wrong, or maction two and two, so we're 27 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 1: down the juice. But my personal plays went two and one, 28 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 1: which I told you about taking the Celtics minus three 29 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 1: unlv on the under. Both those came in. Michigan should 30 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 1: have swept it. We should have gone three. And oh, 31 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: I mean Michigan's at the free throw line with sixteen 32 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 1: seconds left, the leading by twelve. It's a twelve and 33 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: a half point number. Some of you got twelve, so 34 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: you got a better number than I got late, but 35 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 1: I got twelve and a half and free throw misses 36 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 1: if the free throw goes down, pretty good chance, we 37 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, that have one more present. Buffalo had 38 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: a possession, maybe they could have hit a last second 39 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 1: shot and burned us, but we would have been up 40 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: by thirteen going into a last second shot attempt for Buffalo. 41 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 1: So I lose that bet, unfortunately by a half of point. 42 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 1: And yeah, so it was two and one night, so 43 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 1: four and three overall. So yesterday was a small winner, 44 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,559 Speaker 1: and the day before that was a small winner. Podcast 45 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 1: was flat both days. So just you know I'm only 46 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 1: doing this this week. Does it kind of show you 47 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: the point Because betting overnight is difficult, and oftentimes betting 48 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: right before tip. You can read more, you know, take 49 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 1: more research, you can take a look at other people's plays, 50 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: you can have an opportunity to talk to different people 51 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 1: throughout the day. There's just different things you can do 52 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 1: to find yourself in a better position. 53 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 2: And I take advantage of all of that. 54 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 1: I mean, I have access to some really sharp people 55 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 1: and some smart people, and I love taking advantage of that. So, 56 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:39,959 Speaker 1: you know, talking it through plays, say hey, this is 57 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:41,399 Speaker 1: where I'm at. What do you think about this game 58 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: or that game? So that's a long way of telling 59 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 1: you that. Look, I will today again list every play 60 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: I'm going to make. I'm not always going to do this, 61 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:50,360 Speaker 1: but right now I have a little extra time so 62 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: I can. I can do this for you guys, and 63 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 1: you can fade or follow, do whatever you want with it. 64 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 1: So I've got two one unit plays for you guys here, 65 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 1: both with the NF the games going one in college, 66 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: one in the NFL, and then I will probably have 67 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 1: some college basketball, and I might have some NBA. I've 68 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 1: hit my last two NBA bets, so I kind of 69 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:13,519 Speaker 1: want to keep rolling a little bit with the NBA. 70 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 1: I like what we're seeing with the NBA and college 71 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 1: basketball has gotten off to kind of a you know, 72 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: five hundred start, but not horrible. So and I do 73 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: want to go back to hockey at some point. I 74 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 1: feel like we've neglected on hockey, So maybe come in 75 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,920 Speaker 1: with that prop bets potentially as well. All in the 76 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,799 Speaker 1: Discord channel, bettingpros dot com, slash chat, or the link 77 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: underneath me here on YouTube to get in. By the way, 78 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: just a heads up, we are approaching the five hundredth 79 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 1: episode of The Daily Juice. I have asked Dan Harris 80 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: if we could do something special, like a giveaway or 81 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 1: something cool to celebrate the five hundredth episode of the podcast. 82 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: We have hit three point five million listens and nearly 83 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: in less than five hundred episodes. So again, when I 84 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: say thank you, and when I talk about where we 85 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: are and what we're doing and how cool it is, 86 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: the story of The Daily Juice is one that people 87 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: are paying attention to, the industry is paying attention to, 88 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: and it's all thanks to you guys and the community 89 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 1: that we have built together with the Discord channel and 90 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:20,839 Speaker 1: on YouTube and here on on Twitter and you knowever 91 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 1: else wore you get your podcasts. 92 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 2: It's really cool. 93 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:26,039 Speaker 1: The dms you guys send me and everything we've done 94 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,160 Speaker 1: over the last year and a half together has been 95 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 1: really It's been the highlight. 96 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 2: Of my career. 97 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: And you know, I'm forty four years old, so I've 98 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 1: been working for a while, and you know, I've had 99 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: some very cool things happen in my life, some very 100 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 1: cool jobs, including working for my favorite radio station of 101 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 1: my life and working for WEI in Boston. I thought 102 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: that was going to be one of my career highlights, 103 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: or maybe the career highlight was getting a chance to 104 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:48,600 Speaker 1: be on you know that station and you know, doing 105 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: radio and hosting shows and nah, man, nowhere near as 106 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:54,359 Speaker 1: fun as this. 107 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 2: Nowhere near. 108 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: Let's start in college North Carolina catching six and a 109 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: half points up against Pitt So what's interesting about this 110 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: football game to me is that North Carolina's record on 111 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: the road is really bad. We just don't have enough 112 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 1: evidence to one hundred percent believe that Carolina is a 113 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: bad road team. They've played two road games two true 114 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 1: road games, in one neutral site game, they're ower and 115 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,919 Speaker 1: three against spread in all three of those games. You 116 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: guys know, I love meet some Sam Howe. Okay, and 117 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 1: I was eyeballing this team to make some big noise, 118 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 1: do some big things. Hasn't happened, right, I mean, just 119 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 1: hasn't happened. Defensively for North Carolina, they are awful. If 120 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:43,160 Speaker 1: you go to Football Outsiders and you take a look 121 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: at where they are in terms of defensive metrics, this 122 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:52,160 Speaker 1: defense is really bad, man, in terms of expected it's 123 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 1: called a metric that they use on Football Outsiders. It's 124 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: it's called defensive points per drive, defensive day, defensive available 125 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 1: yard percentage. Okay, so how many yards are they giving up? 126 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 1: Are they allowing and giving up? It's not pretty here. 127 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 1: Carolina's defense just gives up a ton here. 128 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:15,719 Speaker 2: You know, they are. 129 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 1: One of the teams you look at and you're like, man, 130 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 1: I thought Carolina going in they're one hundred and ninth 131 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:25,479 Speaker 1: in the country in that stat, one hundred and ninth 132 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: in the country in terms of yardage. They just give 133 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: up a ton of yardage in terms of defensive points 134 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: per play. It doesn't get much better for this defense, 135 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: because well they're giving up points on points on points 136 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 1: and it's not just like you know, you know, just 137 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:47,160 Speaker 1: basic metrics like these are really bad metrics for North Carolina. 138 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 1: They're ninety sixth in that and defensive points per play 139 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 1: in the country. 140 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:54,719 Speaker 2: So overall, if you look at what. 141 00:06:55,520 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 1: Football Outsiders calls it d FEI Defensivefficiency Index ratings, Carolina 142 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:06,719 Speaker 1: has the ninety first defense. Okay, just in general terms. 143 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 1: If you're looking at Carolina as to what they do 144 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 1: on the football field in basic terms, well, they give 145 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 1: up thirty three. 146 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 2: Point four points per game. That's one hundred and fourth 147 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 2: in the country. 148 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 1: They give up five point nine point per game, that's 149 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: sorry yards per play, that's ninety first in the country. 150 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:27,559 Speaker 1: Seven point six yards per pass, four point seven yards 151 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: per rush that is ninety seventh in the country. Right now, 152 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: They give up forty one percent on third down, They 153 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 1: give up eighty a touchdown on eighty four percent of 154 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 1: red zone trips to defenses to offenses by their defense, 155 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 1: seventy second in the league in the country. Okay, on 156 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 1: the other side, we know about Kenny Pickett, right we 157 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 1: like I mean, we like some Kenny Pickett. I love 158 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett. Okay, this guy should be getting a hism 159 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: being conversations. Why he's not, I have no idea, but 160 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: he's putting the huge numbers for Pitt. Last time at 161 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 1: home against Miami, they played like crap. They turned around, 162 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 1: went to Duke, destroyed Duke. Everybody beats up on Duke. Okay, 163 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 1: everyone kills on Duke. However, you look at Pitt and 164 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 1: you look at where they are right now. Offensively, this 165 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: is a team that converts on Offensively, they're converting forty 166 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: six percent of the time on third down. That's twenty 167 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: first best in the country. They're scoring forty one points 168 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: per game, that's fifth best in the country, six point 169 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 1: four yards per play that's twenty second best in the country, 170 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 1: and five hundred and twenty yards of offense per game 171 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 1: that is fourth best in the country. This offense cooks, 172 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:33,959 Speaker 1: and this offense cooks. 173 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 2: At home all right. 174 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: This year against the spread, Pitt is seven and two, 175 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,679 Speaker 1: but at home they're three and two. They've done a 176 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: fairly good job. They beat Clemson the last time we 177 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: were on them. They beat Clemson outright, all right. Then 178 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 1: they turned around and they did not play well against Miami. 179 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 1: They lost by four. They came back late, but they 180 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: were nine and a half point favorites and they lost 181 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 1: by four. 182 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 2: Go to Duke. Crush Duke. 183 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: In the home games they have played, Okay, Michigan wasn't pretty. 184 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 2: Fourteen point favorites. 185 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 1: They lost by three again to UMass my School to 186 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:07,319 Speaker 1: open it up thirty eight point favorites, they won by 187 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 1: forty four. Other than the Clemson game, this is prime 188 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 1: time and this is the biggest game. 189 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,560 Speaker 2: Of the year for this pit team. It's a chance. 190 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:17,079 Speaker 1: If you're you want Kenny Pickett to get in the 191 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: Heisman race, he's going to pick put up some big, 192 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 1: big numbers. Okay, he's got to put up some Heisman 193 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: Trophy type numbers. The number six and a half and 194 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: the total of seventy three. 195 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 2: All right. 196 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 1: I don't think Carolina's defense can slow down Pittsburgh. On 197 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:36,839 Speaker 1: the other side, I think Pittsburgh's defense is better than 198 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 1: people think, and the metrics are are bearing this out 199 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: right now. From a defensive perspective. Offensively, we know what 200 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: they can do. But defensively, Pittsburgh, you know, if you 201 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 1: look at the we're talking about the DFEI rankings, essentially 202 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:55,840 Speaker 1: the DVOA of college football. They're thirty six in the country. Okay, 203 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: we're talking about the overall you know yards the day, 204 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: you know, the the yards available. Pittsburgh not bad. Okay, 205 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: they are sixteenth in the country in that stat all right, 206 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 1: points per play, you know, expected points per play, they're 207 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 1: thirty first in the country. Okay, so this is it's 208 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: a defense. It's better than people think. They're six and two, 209 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: and they're not as you know, porous as maybe we 210 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 1: would think. Even though when you look at over unders 211 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:26,959 Speaker 1: for Pittsburgh they are seven and two to the over, 212 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: and North Carolina is seven, sorry, six and three to 213 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:33,199 Speaker 1: the over on the road, two and one for Carolina 214 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 1: on the over, four and one Pittsburgh to the over all. Right, 215 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 1: I'm leaning towards an overplay. Personally, I most likely will 216 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: be on the over here for this game, but I'm 217 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: a little concerned about Carolina not being able to score 218 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: enough to get to seventy three. 219 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 2: For Pittsburgh. 220 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:53,600 Speaker 1: This number under seven, it feels better to take Pittsburgh 221 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:55,679 Speaker 1: minus six and a half. I don't like it at 222 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 1: seven or higher, but under a touchdown, I think Pittsburgh 223 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: at home Hinzfield primetime eyes on them chance to get 224 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: their quarterback in the Heisman Trophy conversation. One unit, we're 225 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 1: laying six and a half Pittsburgh minus six and a 226 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: half at home against North Carolina. I do lean over 227 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 1: and I probably will have an overplay personally on it. 228 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 2: I'm not I haven't bet it yet. 229 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 1: I do want to see weather forecasts and everything else 230 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 1: on that to see what happens in Pittsburgh. You know 231 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: it is, you know, November and Pittsburgh. So let's see 232 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 1: what the weather is. You know, freak storms pop up 233 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 1: or whatever. But right now, one unit, Pittsburgh minus six 234 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 1: and a half at home against North Carolina. Let's hope 235 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: Carolina goes to zero to four against the spread on 236 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 1: the road this season. All right, Let's go to Ravens 237 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 1: and Dolphins. Number is seven and a half. Forty six 238 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 1: and a half is the total. Man, There are some 239 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: really interesting things to look at for these teams, but 240 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 1: it comes down to these these defenses suck. Like there's 241 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,719 Speaker 1: no other way to say it, but these defenses are 242 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:07,000 Speaker 1: absolutely atrocious. DVOA Football Outsider, same thing. Okay, Miami twenty 243 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:13,560 Speaker 1: fifth in the NFL. DVOA Baltimore twenty six DVOA in 244 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 1: the NFL. These teams stink okay offensively, though they're pretty 245 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:21,679 Speaker 1: good they can move to the football. The Ravens are 246 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:24,199 Speaker 1: really bad this season when they're laying six and a 247 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:25,959 Speaker 1: half points or more, by the way, they're ower to 248 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: four against a spread. When doing that, Miami at home 249 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:34,080 Speaker 1: catching seven and a half points is really inviting, and 250 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:37,080 Speaker 1: I'll probably I'll probably take it. Okay, I'll probably tell 251 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:39,319 Speaker 1: it right now. I'll probably be on this personally taking 252 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: the Dolphins at plus seven and a half for a 253 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 1: half a unit, taking a flyer on it. But I 254 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: don't know about Tua. Like, if Tua plays, I would 255 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 1: jump on seven and a half. If it's if it's Burset, 256 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 1: Oh my, I mean that scares the living heck out 257 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 1: of me, Bursett. 258 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 2: I don't. 259 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 1: I mean the defense for the Ravens is not good. 260 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 1: Like we know this, They are not good, and they 261 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 1: do have a little bit of a sense of like 262 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 1: playing down to the level of competition this season. We've 263 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: seen that happen before for this team. And it's like, 264 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 1: you know, do I really trust the Miami Dolphins to 265 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 1: be able to score and stay within a touchdown? 266 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:13,079 Speaker 2: I don't know. 267 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 1: With Tua I kind of do. With Tua, I feel 268 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 1: much more comfortable saying they would be able to do that, 269 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 1: even though they're two and seven and they just had 270 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 1: a tough time with all, you know, with the Houston 271 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 1: Texans and everything else. It's got like, man, they they've 272 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: been a crap team this season and they aren't scoring 273 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: a lot, only seventeen points per game. But you know, 274 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 1: they are moving the ball fairly well through the air, 275 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 1: and okay, they can't really run the ball. It's a 276 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 1: big problem for them. Only seventy five yeard rushing a game. 277 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 1: For Miami, it's a big problem. And the Ravens give 278 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 1: up a ton of yards on the ground one hundred 279 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 1: and sixty one yards per game. So maybe the runn 280 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 1: attack for the Ravens get going. Maybe you take a 281 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 1: prop bet on Gaskin and something like that. But seventeen points, 282 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 1: they win seventeen to nine against Houston. In the games 283 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:54,680 Speaker 1: for that, they scored eleven against Buffalo, they scored twenty 284 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:58,439 Speaker 1: eight against Atlanta and home. They scored twenty against Jacksonville. 285 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:00,080 Speaker 1: They lost all four of the games against tamp I 286 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,720 Speaker 1: scored seventeen, lost all four of those games, they're one 287 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: in three at home, but there is a home field 288 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:06,439 Speaker 1: advantage on Thursday. 289 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 2: Night, for sure. 290 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: I told you I am no longer playing primetime unders, 291 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 1: and I'm not doing same game parlays. 292 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 2: I think a lot of people are going. 293 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 1: To take the Ravens and tease the Ravens down to 294 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 1: one and a half, and they're going to go ahead 295 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 1: and take the total at forty six and a half, 296 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: pull it down and bet the over forty and a 297 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 1: half a right, what happened to Miami wins the game? Like, 298 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 1: that's just where I am to a plays. What happens 299 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 1: to Miami wins the game? 300 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 2: I don't know. 301 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: I feel much more comfortable talking about the crap defenses 302 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 1: and have either the Ravens score forty points on their 303 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 1: own and Lamar Jackson goes crazy on this defense for Miami, 304 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 1: which is a huge issue because Miami's defense will supposed 305 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 1: to be their calling card, or we get a good 306 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: game going back and forth and it's like, you know, 307 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: a twenty eight twenty four type of game, or it's 308 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 1: like a you know, twenty four twenty three type of. 309 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 2: Game, and we still get there. We get to forty seven. 310 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 1: Right, So the total is forty six and a half. 311 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: Primetime overs have been pretty good this year. I'm just 312 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 1: coming back in here, one unit over forty six and 313 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 1: a half. Ravens and the Dolphins points. Let's get points. 314 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: Let's get points on two really bad defenses. And I'm 315 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 1: leading six. I'm leading seven and a half. If TWOA 316 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 1: gets cleared, two is in, I'll be on seven and 317 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: a half. I just can't do it. I just can't 318 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 1: do it right now. I just can't do it overnight. 319 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 1: So I'll have a bunch of more plays coming up, 320 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 1: like you guys have seen, I've got two full unit 321 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 1: plays going, so you know I won't have more than 322 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 1: a couple of plays, two or three of them, but 323 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 1: I will have a couple more, probably some player props 324 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 1: coming at you in the Discord channel, maybe coup a 325 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 1: couple of NBA player props. And you know, I may 326 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: have just four player props that may give you at all. 327 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 1: I don't know, we'll see, but I will have more 328 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 1: plays as I always do in the Discord channel. I'll 329 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 1: tell you my full card like I have, but for 330 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: the podcast overnight, two official plays six and a half. 331 00:15:58,240 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 2: We're laying it with Pittsburgh at home. 332 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: It's North Carolina and we're taking the over forty six 333 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 1: and a half for the Dolphins and the Ravens coming 334 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: up here tonight on Thursday Night Football. 335 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 2: Mine's Matt Parotz. Follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt. 336 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 1: Each and every morning, it's the Deli Juice Podcast, always 337 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 1: being brought to you by bet MGM