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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing into spec I'm saying it's a cash toto.

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Speaker 3: That's a most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to wind. That's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabai.

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Speaker 4: You want to pack.

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Speaker 2: And we are.

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Speaker 3: What is up? Everybody?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by bet MGM,

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Speaker 4: the King of sportsbooks. I'm your host, Chris Raybon, and

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Speaker 4: this is your NFL Week seven betting preview. We're gonna

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Speaker 4: talk about our favorite sides, totals, teasers, money line, underdog

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Speaker 4: survivor picks, and of course crack open our weekly Sunday

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Speaker 4: six of Against the Spread bets with the help, of course,

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Speaker 4: of my co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 4: Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 3: What's going on? Man?

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Speaker 2: What's going on? Brother? Was a good week in the

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Speaker 2: NFL for us. You should have swept the entire part.

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Speaker 2: Shout to Mac Jones for safety. I actually would blame

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Speaker 2: Parker more like catch that ball like and then that

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Speaker 2: never happens.

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Speaker 3: With Parker catching balls never happens.

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Speaker 2: I had a really good week but who cares around

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Speaker 2: the next week. But I do want to say I

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Speaker 2: got lucky with the Bengals, who should not have covered

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Speaker 2: Gino Smith with.

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Speaker 4: Mac Jones just in the red zone instead of his

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Speaker 4: own end zone, just staying in there.

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Speaker 2: But that was the theme of the weekend red zone futility.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it has been a problem across the border.

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Speaker 2: What does that lead to? That leads to a lot

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Speaker 2: of unders. And we saw last week Unders twelve two

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Speaker 2: and one, the best week in twenty seven years. Unders

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Speaker 2: now fifty six thirty six and one, sixty point nine percent,

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Speaker 2: best art through six weeks to a season for unders

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Speaker 2: since nineteen ninety one. So some of these totals are

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Speaker 2: coming down. You're seeing a big over correction. There might

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Speaker 2: be nice bounce back for overs in the coming weeks.

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Speaker 2: But nice week for the pod, nice season so far.

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Speaker 2: But as I always say it, who cares? Last week

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Speaker 2: was last week? It's time to move on.

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Speaker 4: Last week was last week, This week was this week,

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Speaker 4: Next week will be next week, on to the next

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Speaker 4: and we'll see if the league wide, I mean, the

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Speaker 4: red zone struggles I think are just a microcosm of

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Speaker 4: passing efficiency being down. You're averaging six point six adjusted

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Speaker 4: yards per attempt this year. That's the lowest sins two

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Speaker 4: thousan and ten, which you remember that's when they started

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Speaker 4: changing the rules to really benefit the offense. Yards for

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Speaker 4: completion ten point six, that is, If that held, that

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Speaker 4: would be an all time low from two.

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Speaker 2: High safeties taking away exposive play the Mahomes counter effect.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we're under six yards net per dropback for the

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Speaker 4: first time since six We'll get into all that on

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Speaker 4: the pod of course, for those asking, Yes, these episodes

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Speaker 4: always available in full on the Action Network YouTube page

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Speaker 4: every Thursday afternoon, so check those if you prefer video.

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Speaker 4: But let's get right into it this week with our

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Speaker 4: Thursday Night Football pre.

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Speaker 5: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 5: Let's bet Thursday Night Football, all.

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Speaker 4: Right, Ugly one Jags at Saints. Saints are favored by

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Speaker 4: a point at BETMPM.

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Speaker 3: The total is forty.

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Speaker 4: Looks like Trevor Lawrence is tentatively going to try to

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Speaker 4: suit up at least that's that's what we're hearing as

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Speaker 4: we record this on Wednesday after noon. I mean, my

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Speaker 4: handicap for this game is it's ugly. It's Thursday. I

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Speaker 4: don't want to touch it. If I was, i'd probably

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Speaker 4: look under. Even though it's come down. The Saints pretty

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Speaker 4: much don't give up twenty, and they don't get to twenty,

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Speaker 4: and now you got to banged up Lawrence, they'll.

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Speaker 3: Probably run it a little more.

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Speaker 4: The press tailor the OC for the Jaguars, talking up

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Speaker 4: Etn's ability to be a workhorse.

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Speaker 3: I think you're gonna see a run every game from Jacksonville.

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Speaker 4: The Orleans will play solid defense and probably have shit

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Speaker 4: play calling and score like seventeen thirteen to seventeen. So

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Speaker 4: I'd lean under. But what are your thoughts on this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this game is awful. It is your classic, just

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Speaker 2: ugly Thursday night game. I mean, these are two teams

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Speaker 2: that are in the playoff mix, so at least we

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Speaker 2: have that going for us. But you know, I project

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Speaker 2: this game with before any adjustments, at exactly a pick

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Speaker 2: and so like, this is a true toss up to me.

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Speaker 2: But then you throw in the fact that we with

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Speaker 2: the uncertainty of Trevor Lawrence. So I've worked about five

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Speaker 2: to six points. So like, if I knew Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 2: was out for sure, I would have the Saints favored

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Speaker 2: here by five five and a half. You know, maybe

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Speaker 2: four and a half uglier game lower total, but you know,

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Speaker 2: definitely way it significantly over a field goal. If it's

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Speaker 2: a fifty percent Lawrence, you know, maybe the Saints are

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Speaker 2: two two and a half point favorites here. Their offense

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Speaker 2: certainly has not been clicking, but you have the Lawrence atturtety.

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Speaker 2: So I don't want to bet this game because you

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Speaker 2: just don't. I just don't know, right Lawrence. It could

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Speaker 2: be a smoke screen. They might not be playing it all.

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Speaker 2: So a short week, you know, he might be an

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Speaker 2: effective not be able to move. He might go in

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Speaker 2: and then not be able to go and then down

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Speaker 2: to C. J. Bethard And that's a significant downgrade, to

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Speaker 2: say the least against a really good defense. And it's

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Speaker 2: also just a tough spot for the Jags on a

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Speaker 2: short week because if you think about it, they have

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Speaker 2: two weeks in London and then you come back to Jacksonville,

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Speaker 2: you play a divisional game, and now you have a

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Speaker 2: short week. They've done a lot of a lot of

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Speaker 2: traveling here and you're going into a tough environment, you know,

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Speaker 2: playing a team off of a bad loss, and the Saints.

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Speaker 2: I just don't trust their offense enough. But if I

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Speaker 2: had to bet it, I would bet the Saints just

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Speaker 2: because of the uncertainty surrounding Lawrence, So like if he's

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Speaker 2: out or significantly hampered or can't go the full game,

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Speaker 2: then I think there is some value in the Saints

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Speaker 2: now that the line has come back down. Under is

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Speaker 2: never a bad look in a Saints game. The Saints

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Speaker 2: have gone under twelve straight games and fifteen of sixteen.

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Speaker 2: They're the only team to go under in every game

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Speaker 2: this year, so I think it's a good spot for

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Speaker 2: the Saints. This is a pure pass for me.

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Speaker 3: If I had to bet it, go under.

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Speaker 4: The Saints have been under machines, as you mentioned in

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Speaker 4: Thursday Night Football unders when the totals forty or less

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Speaker 4: twenty two, seven and two since six that is a

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Speaker 4: seventy six percent cash rate, and of course primetime unders

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Speaker 4: when they drop more than a point sixty three percent

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Speaker 4: since twenty fifteen. Okay, let's be done with this Thursday

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Speaker 4: Night game and get into the six pack and real quick.

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Speaker 4: Before we do, just want to remind everyone that we

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Speaker 4: have our discord and you can find me Kerner and

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Speaker 4: lots of other Action Network experts on the Action Discord server,

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Speaker 4: especially during Thursday Night football. To join, just use the

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Speaker 4: invitation link in the description of this episode. And now

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Speaker 4: it's time for our Week seven Sunday six.

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Speaker 6: Pack Thursday for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: All right, as you mentioned, good week for us both

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Speaker 4: went to and one on our.

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Speaker 3: Six pack picks go first.

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Speaker 4: Week and for the first pick of the Week seven

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Speaker 4: Sunday six Pack, I'm going with the Los Angeles Chargers

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Speaker 4: plus five and a half at the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: And this is at this point one of these bets

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Speaker 4: we pretty much make year and year out. In this spot,

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Speaker 4: Chargers at the Chiefs getting more than a field goal.

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Speaker 4: Chargers have not lost by more than three points this season.

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Speaker 4: Chargers have only lost by.

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Speaker 3: Six or more points three.

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Speaker 4: Times since the start of last year, so they've lost

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Speaker 4: eleven times, including that playoff game. Only three of those

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Speaker 4: games have been by six or more. So that means

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Speaker 4: since the start of last year, they played twenty three

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Speaker 4: games and only three times have they lost by six

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Speaker 4: points and more. That's just thirteen percent, so eighty seven

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Speaker 4: percent of time they're keeping it lower than six. They're

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Speaker 4: keeping it, you know, either you know, they're losing by

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Speaker 4: five or less or they are winning. And you know,

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Speaker 4: we've kind of seen that with Herbert against the Chiefs

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Speaker 4: in his career. He's too and four straight up, but

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Speaker 4: five and one against the spread, covering by just under

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Speaker 4: five points a game. And that's because the losses three, three, three,

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Speaker 4: and six.

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Speaker 2: He should be six and against the spread. The silver

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Speaker 2: point loss came in overtime when they were a three

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Speaker 2: point dog, so they have not been trailing by more

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Speaker 2: than three at the end of regulation in any of

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Speaker 2: the meetings between Mahomes and Herbert.

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Speaker 4: And that just makes sense, because what do you need

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Speaker 4: when you're playing Casey. You need a guy like Justin

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Speaker 4: Herbert on the other side who could just sling it,

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Speaker 4: you know, get the ball down the field in a hurry,

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Speaker 4: you know, good into two minute drill has.

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Speaker 3: An alpha receiver in Keithan Allen.

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Speaker 4: Because this Kansas City defense has been a lot better,

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Speaker 4: I will say that, but this is a you know,

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Speaker 4: an offense that I think, you know, Rashid Rice is

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Speaker 4: starting to break out, but you lost Mahomes's favorite deep threat,

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Speaker 4: which is kind of crazy to say. Justin Watson he

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Speaker 4: was really doing with Marquez valdezk should be doing, but

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Speaker 4: he just won't running wind sprints out there. He's invisible

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Speaker 4: pretty much. So this this receiving course still kind of shaky,

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Speaker 4: which is good because the Chargers have had, you know,

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Speaker 4: some issues at cornerback. Going against a team with weaker

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Speaker 4: wide receivers always is going to benefit the Chargers. But

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Speaker 4: this is just a classic Kansas City fate spot fourteen

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Speaker 4: and twenty seven against the spread thirty four percent when

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Speaker 4: favored by more than a field goal since early November

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Speaker 4: of twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: Uh and you know a lot of.

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Speaker 4: People like to look at Andy Reid in this extra

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Speaker 4: time of prep and you pointed it out on a

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Speaker 4: happy hour with Kansas City read is just ten and

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Speaker 4: thirteen against the spread with nine or more days to

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Speaker 4: prepare four and seven, just thirty six percent against the

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Speaker 4: spread in those situations with Patrick Mahomes and divisional road

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Speaker 4: dogs against home favorites that have covered in at least

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Speaker 4: four of their last six eighty one fifty one and

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Speaker 4: six sixty one percent against the spread over the last

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Speaker 4: two decades. So like this matchup for the Chargers plus

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Speaker 4: five and a half and I will say, you know,

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Speaker 4: you mentioned the six. You know what the Chargers are

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Speaker 4: gonna do, So I actually don't mind buying up to

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Speaker 4: the six at minus one to twenty.

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Speaker 3: Don't think we're gonna get back there.

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Speaker 4: I want to push insurance for some ot but we'll

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Speaker 4: take the five and a half year Chargers.

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Speaker 3: Let's go.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this was gonna be one of mine, so I

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Speaker 2: was disappointed when you took it first. So I completely agree.

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Speaker 2: This is and for what it's worth, that's on the surface,

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Speaker 2: short week for the Chargers. Chiefs off extended rest Andy

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Speaker 2: Reid with extra prep, but that, as we said, ten

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Speaker 2: and thirteen to gets spread also teams that have less

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Speaker 2: than seven days of prep, which the Chargers do taking

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Speaker 2: on teams with ten or more days to prep those

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Speaker 2: teams with short preparation forty five thirty five and one

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Speaker 2: against the spread over the past twenty years, that's fifty

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Speaker 2: six and a half percent, So hasn't been a big

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Speaker 2: issue end or has just been over adjusted in the

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Speaker 2: march O mahomes This year nine Big Time throws nine

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Speaker 2: turnover worthy plays, yet he has eleven touchdowns and five interceptions.

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Speaker 2: Last year, thirty eight Big time throws nineteen turnover worthy

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Speaker 2: plays two to one ratio, He's at one to one

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Speaker 2: this year. That led to forty eight touchdowns and twelve interceptions.

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Speaker 2: He's at a one to one ratio this year. This

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Speaker 2: offense is just out of rhythm. Probably comes down to

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs winning by field goal. I completely agree with

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Speaker 2: the Bolts all right. For my first pick and the

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Speaker 2: second overall of the week seven Sunday six pack, I

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Speaker 2: am going with the Baltimore Ravens minus three at home

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Speaker 2: against the Detroit Lions. This is a couple of first

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Speaker 2: for me. The first time I'm betting the Ravens this

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Speaker 2: year and the first time I'm betting a Lions game.

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Speaker 2: I haven't bet a Lions.

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Speaker 3: Game all year.

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Speaker 2: They are five and one against the spread. I think

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Speaker 2: this is the top of the market on the Lions. Look,

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Speaker 2: one thing you could do in the NFL, even if

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Speaker 2: you just don't know anything, is just listen. Listen around.

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Speaker 2: As soon as you start hearing this team I'm hearing.

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Speaker 2: I've heard people say the Lions are the best team

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. Lions are number one in their power ratings,

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Speaker 2: And so did you start hearing that? You know it's

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Speaker 2: probably there's probably a good chance that the market is

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Speaker 2: kind of peeked out on that team. The Lions have

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Speaker 2: won four straight. Who are they beat? The Falcons and

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Speaker 2: Desmond Ritter, a banged up Packers team missing half their offense,

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Speaker 2: a banged up winless Panthers team, and the Bucks with

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Speaker 2: Baker vomiting all over himself last last week. I mean

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Speaker 2: their quarterbacks. They beating this four game win streak. Love Ridder,

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Speaker 2: Young and Baker. And if you watch that game last

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Speaker 2: week against the Bucks, the Bucks had multiple eighty to

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Speaker 2: ninety yard touchdowns that Baker missed, one got tipped, he

258
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Speaker 2: missed a couple. This secondary, which hasn't faced anyone with

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Speaker 2: a pulse since week one, and by we just talked

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Speaker 2: about the Kansas City offensive struggles and you know we

261
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Speaker 2: saw them get beat by Seattle, giving up thirty eight points.

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Speaker 2: This secondary has issues and it hasn't really been exploited yet.

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Speaker 2: They played one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses.

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Speaker 2: I do think and look, if you look at like DVOI,

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Speaker 2: their defense is ranked third, the Ravens of second. I

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Speaker 2: think both of these units have overperformed based on their

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Speaker 2: opposing schedules. I do think that the Lion's run defense

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Speaker 2: is real. Alee McNeil's turned into a great run stuffer.

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Speaker 2: You also have like Jones and Bugs up there taking

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Speaker 2: up blocks. Jack Campbell really good against the run. He

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Speaker 2: can't cover. You know, you have guys like Kirby Joseph

272
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Speaker 2: at Saty he's been good against the runn he can't cover.

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Speaker 2: And you know Cam Sutton and Jerry Jacobs. I'm sorry,

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Speaker 2: they're just not a great outside cornerback duo. Maybe you

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Speaker 2: get branched back because if not, Will Harris is your

276
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Speaker 2: slot and he's horrendous. This secondary is bad. The linebackers

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Speaker 2: struggling coverage. This defense just is against the pass, is

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Speaker 2: very vulnerable. Is right for the picking and the Ravens

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Speaker 2: are close, and I think the Ravens are going to

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Speaker 2: attack this line secondary. I thy look the past two weeks,

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Speaker 2: it was red zone problems. Last week they knew the

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Speaker 2: ballup and down the field. The week before against the

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Speaker 2: Steelers was drops and really in both games they should

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Speaker 2: have had twenty eight to thirty one plus. And don't

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Speaker 2: forget this team put up twenty eight with ease against

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Speaker 2: the Cleveland defense that No One can get a first

287
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Speaker 2: down against, So this offense is really close. They've also

288
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Speaker 2: had a couple of weeks to kind of assimilate the

289
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Speaker 2: offensive linemen that were hurt back in They've had injuries

290
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Speaker 2: all over. I think this offense is ready to break out,

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Speaker 2: and I think that they're going to come out more

292
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Speaker 2: aggressive after last week they kind of went really conservative

293
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Speaker 2: in the red zone, knowing that they probably could hold

294
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Speaker 2: on with their defense and special teams. So I think

295
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Speaker 2: this is the peak of the market for the lines.

296
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Speaker 2: You also have outdoor golf with some win conditions, you know,

297
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Speaker 2: indoor golf twenty seven and thirteen against the spread, outdoor

298
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Speaker 2: golf thirty three and thirty one against the spread, right

299
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Speaker 2: around five hundred. His numbers aren't as good, so and look,

300
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Speaker 2: this is when you want to play Lamar Jackson. Eighteen

301
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Speaker 2: and four against the spread as an underdog or favorite

302
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Speaker 2: of less than three, covering by eight points per game.

303
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Speaker 2: That includes twelve and one against the spread against teams

304
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Speaker 2: with a winning record ten and zero when the lines

305
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,680
Speaker 2: between three and three, So we're not talking about just

306
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Speaker 2: all when he's a bigger underdog. And then he's eighteen

307
00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:36,320
Speaker 2: and twenty seven against the spread as a favorite of

308
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Speaker 2: more than a field goal. So I think that the

309
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Speaker 2: Ravens are gonna go a little pass heavier here, and

310
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Speaker 2: I think they're going to take advantage of this lines

311
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Speaker 2: defense that I think is overrated. It has holes and

312
00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:51,080
Speaker 2: can be picked apart. On the other side of the ball.

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Speaker 2: When the lines have they have injuries at running back,

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Speaker 2: they're gonna have to go, I think a little more

315
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Speaker 2: pass heavy two. And you know, they've scored twenty straight

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Speaker 2: fifteen games, I'm sorry, fourteen straight games they cover, They've

317
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Speaker 2: scored at least twenty points. I think their offense will

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Speaker 2: do some things here, but I think God will make

319
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Speaker 2: a key mistake or two. And there's a huge, huge

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Speaker 2: special teams advantage for the Ravens here. A couple of

321
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Speaker 2: field goals with the wind that probably go the Ravens

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Speaker 2: way and not the Lion's way. And I think we're

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Speaker 2: at the top of the market on the Lions. This

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Speaker 2: defense is ready to be picked apart, and I think

325
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Speaker 2: that Lamar Jackson and company are going to do it.

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Speaker 2: So give me the Ravens laying a field goal at

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Speaker 2: home against the Detroit Lions. It's Baltimore, Gentlemen. The gods

328
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Speaker 2: will not save you.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'll trust you on this one.

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Speaker 4: I feel like I never have a good read on

331
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Speaker 4: the Ravens these days, aside from when they're playing the

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Speaker 4: Cleveland Browns. No one knows the Ravens better than you,

333
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Speaker 4: So I'll trust you on this one. And I think

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Speaker 4: you're going to have more in this game when we

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Speaker 4: talk totals as well, So that'll harp on it all right.

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Speaker 4: For my second pick in the third overall of the

337
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Speaker 4: week seven Sunday six pack, I'm gonna go with those

338
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Speaker 4: Bucks minus two and a half at home against the

339
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Speaker 4: Atlanta Falcons. Feel like I've had a pretty pretty good

340
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Speaker 4: read on the Bucks this year. Every year I seem

341
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Speaker 4: to have a read on one of these lowly NFC

342
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Speaker 4: South teams. So we'll see if I can beat a

343
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Speaker 4: Bucks whisper this this season. But I like this matchup

344
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Speaker 4: for the Bucks. I like that they just got blown

345
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Speaker 4: out and kind of came back down to earth, which

346
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Speaker 4: which I did predict last week. But first of all,

347
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Speaker 4: in this matchup, Dampa Bay has just been the better

348
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Speaker 4: team across the board every single phase this season.

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Speaker 3: DVA. They are fifteenth overall.

350
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Speaker 4: Atlanta's twenty sixth, nineteenth on offense Atlanta twenty sixth, tenth

351
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,680
Speaker 4: on defense Atlanta twenty fourth, twenty eighth on special team

352
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Speaker 4: in Atlanta's twenty ninth. So kind of a wash there,

353
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Speaker 4: but Dampa Bay has been the better team in all

354
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Speaker 4: three phases. Importantly, Tampa Bay, after kind of a weird

355
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Speaker 4: start to the year run defense wise, they seem to

356
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:10,359
Speaker 4: have got that short up a little bit more.

357
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Speaker 3: Tenth in run defense DVOA.

358
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Speaker 4: That's always important when you play the Atlanta Falcons, and that,

359
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:19,960
Speaker 4: you know, being able to at least slow down to run,

360
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Speaker 4: which this Falcons run game hasn't even been great.

361
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Speaker 3: You know, I'm kind of disappointed. But Deverybay likes to blitz.

362
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,880
Speaker 4: They blitzed forty percent of the time, just over forty

363
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 4: percent of the time, the third most in the league.

364
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Speaker 4: Desmond Ritter twenty third of thirty three quarterbacks in PFF grade.

365
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:39,280
Speaker 4: Against the blitz, his yards per attempt drops about a

366
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:43,159
Speaker 4: half half yard. And I think he's gonna struggle against

367
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Speaker 4: his defense. Firstly, we know Desmond Ritter has these weird

368
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Speaker 4: home road splits. I don't know how much there is

369
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Speaker 4: to it, but you know, just looking at his numbers,

370
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Speaker 4: they are very start at home, sixty seven percent completion

371
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Speaker 4: seven point three yards in attempt, passing two hundred and

372
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Speaker 4: thirty passing yards per game, ninety two rating. On the

373
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Speaker 4: road fifty nine percent completions five and a half yards

374
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,920
Speaker 4: in attempt, just one hundred and seventy seven yards per game,

375
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,360
Speaker 4: a seventy ratings, So his rating drops over twenty points

376
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:20,680
Speaker 4: on the road. Ridder zero to four straight up, one

377
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,679
Speaker 4: and three against the spread, and in four road starts,

378
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Speaker 4: Desmond Ritter has gotten beaten by more points than the

379
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Speaker 4: offense has scored. They have a minus forty one point

380
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:36,119
Speaker 4: differential in his four road starts and they've scored forty

381
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,359
Speaker 4: points just ten a game. Now, Ritter just overall hasn't

382
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 4: been a great quarterback against the spread. He's just three

383
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:45,760
Speaker 4: and seven against the spread regardless of location. He's the

384
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:50,400
Speaker 4: lowest graded quarterback in PFF. You know, in all situations,

385
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 4: dead last of thirty five QBR he's twenty fifth of

386
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Speaker 4: thirty three. And I just think that this Bucks defense

387
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 4: has cornerbacks on the outside, has linebackers that can guard

388
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 4: against the run, and also you know those those Bejon

389
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 4: Robinson weakouts and screen passes and whatnot.

390
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Speaker 3: And I really think this.

391
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Speaker 4: Is gonna be kind of a comeback down to earth

392
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 4: for Ritter now if they're throwing for three hundred in

393
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Speaker 4: back to back games, even though he did have a

394
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:20,680
Speaker 4: pretty some pretty big mistakes.

395
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,640
Speaker 3: In that Washington game. But then we flip it over.

396
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Speaker 4: Okay, Atlanta their pass defense still hasn't been good, even

397
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Speaker 4: though they're getting more pressure this year. They're twenty ninth

398
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,960
Speaker 4: in past DVOA, but they do have the third highest

399
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 4: pressure rate. Now, usually you'd be like, Okay, that's an issue,

400
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 4: but Mayfield has been better versus pressure this year sixty

401
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 4: five point two PFF grade. That's sixth out of thirty

402
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:48,919
Speaker 4: five qualifiers. He's also first in yards in attempt against

403
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:54,240
Speaker 4: pressure and first in passer rating against pressure. That's among

404
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 4: all quarterbacks, Mahomes, Tua, everybody, Baker Mayfield number one against pressure.

405
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 4: I think that Tampa Bay will be able to throw

406
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 4: in this spot stuck. You talked about how they missed

407
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:11,360
Speaker 4: some open throws. I think they're gonna have a chance

408
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 4: to hit them this week against this bottom five defense

409
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 4: a DVA.

410
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 3: Atlanta is top ten against the run.

411
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,399
Speaker 4: That doesn't matter against Tampa Tampa Bay has the fourth

412
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 4: fewest rushing yards per game. They're not gonna be able

413
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 4: to run on anybody, so the key is for them

414
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,400
Speaker 4: to be able to throw the football. I think they're

415
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 4: gonna be able to do it in this matchup, and

416
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,359
Speaker 4: I think they're gonna be able to stop Atlanta on

417
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 4: offense and be able to win probably what's going to

418
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,160
Speaker 4: be an ugly low scoring game. But I do think

419
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is gonna be able to put up some

420
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 4: points and capitalize on some of those situations that they

421
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 4: weren't able to against a much better defense in Detroit

422
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 4: last week. Also the second straight home game for the Bucks,

423
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,239
Speaker 4: and they were off a by so they should be

424
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:54,479
Speaker 4: feeling good, well rested, whereas you have this Atlanta team,

425
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 4: their quarterback not good anywhere, especially not on the road.

426
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Speaker 2: Give me the Bucks two and a half. I'd have

427
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: a great feel on this one. I would say, Yeah,

428
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 2: the Baker pressure stats are definitely surprising, and he's been

429
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 2: a pleasant surprise in that aspect. But it is a short,

430
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,119
Speaker 2: small sample size where there's a lot of variants in

431
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 2: those numbers, and the Falcons, despite their lack of sacks,

432
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 2: are actually getting a lot of pressure. That's generally how

433
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 2: you beat Mayfield. But if you just look at this

434
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 2: matchup on paper, biggest discrepancy is that the Bucks have

435
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 2: been much more stout defending the pass. Right, both teams

436
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 2: have been really good against the run, and then the

437
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 2: Bucks have been much better defending the pass. And he

438
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 2: still would take Baker Mayfield over Desmond Ridder, and he

439
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 2: on paper has a better matchup here as long as

440
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 2: Baker can avoid some catastrophic mistakes, which Ritter also could

441
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,919
Speaker 2: make just as easily. You're getting the Bucks at a

442
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:56,399
Speaker 2: decent price here. All right. For my second pick and

443
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 2: the fourth overall of the week seven Sunday six pack,

444
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with the Los Angeles Rams minus

445
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,920
Speaker 2: three against the Pittsburgh Steelers for however long we do

446
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 2: in this podcast. You say you're the NFC South whisper.

447
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: I am the Tomlin whisper.

448
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 3: We all talk too much. Sharp dues can just see it.

449
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 2: I know they're coming off the bye and they're a dog.

450
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,400
Speaker 2: I tend to look at dog spots as when you're

451
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,439
Speaker 2: catching over a field goal. But this is a sleepy

452
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 2: spot for the Steelers going on the road playing a

453
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 2: team it's five hundred. They're coming off of a big

454
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:32,640
Speaker 2: win like this is similar to what we saw when

455
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,920
Speaker 2: they went to Houston and got absolutely obliterated. Even though

456
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 2: you said, oh, their defensive line should dominate, they didn't

457
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 2: do anything. It was not a classic Tomlin spot. They

458
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 2: didn't come out with their air on fire at home

459
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:45,880
Speaker 2: against an opponent that was better than them.

460
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 3: I don't want to hear about the labor pays man.

461
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:49,400
Speaker 4: Deliver the damn baby.

462
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 2: And look, let's be frank. This Steelers team, they should

463
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,880
Speaker 2: have one win on the season. They won two games

464
00:24:56,240 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 2: because of you know, defensive touchdowns and drops and they

465
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 2: just have a bit good and when you look at

466
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 2: both of these teams just on paper, right, the Steelers

467
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 2: arguably have been the worst offense in the NFL. They

468
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 2: are dead last and success rate at about thirty six percent,

469
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 2: which is pitiful. It's always bad when you're below the Jets.

470
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 2: At Zach Wilson, they've they've all the eighth highest explosive

471
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 2: play rate for what it's where the Rams are eighth

472
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 2: and explosiveness and just got Cooper Cup back and from

473
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 2: almost every metric, the Rams have a top ten offense

474
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 2: this year. So you're you're telling me I got a

475
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 2: top ten offense at home against one of the worst

476
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 2: offenses in the NFL. And then on the other side,

477
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 2: it's like the Steelers defense and the Rams defense, they're

478
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 2: pretty similar, Like there's just not a lot there. Heree

479
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 2: Moore's done a great job with the Rams and the

480
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 2: with their talent, and both defenses kind of gray out

481
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 2: around average. No Hayward in the middle of that defense

482
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 2: makes the Steelers run defense. It's extremely vulnerable, and I

483
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 2: just really don't like their secondary outside of Minka Fitzpatrick.

484
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 2: So unless they're you know, edge rushers in a pipe

485
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 2: spot are basically winning the game for them. This defense

486
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,119
Speaker 2: can be picked apart and I have the much better offense.

487
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 2: And look, it's basically like can Lo win the game?

488
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 2: Can Donald win the game? And I think Donald actually

489
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 2: has some much better matchups here. But I'll take look,

490
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 2: if you rewind back a couple of weeks ago, the

491
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 2: Raiders were laying three at home against the Steelers. I

492
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 2: have the Raiders as a below average team, below twentieth

493
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: in my power ratings. The Rams I actually have as

494
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 2: slightly above average. So and I'm laying the same exact

495
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 2: price here I think this is a sleepy spot or

496
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 2: pit even off the buy. This is just how that

497
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,360
Speaker 2: the ebbs and flows of the Steelers playing a non

498
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,919
Speaker 2: divisional opponent that's three and three after a win. The

499
00:26:57,960 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 2: time to bet the Steelers is after they lose this

500
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 2: game next week at home against the Jags. But yeah,

501
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 2: give me the better offense at home. And for what

502
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 2: it's worth, the Rams have had one of the toughest

503
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:15,120
Speaker 2: schedules of opposing defenses as well, and excuse me posing offenses,

504
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 2: and their defense is still kind of creating out around

505
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,880
Speaker 2: middle of the pack, so they've been much better than

506
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 2: I anticipated. So I think these are still two vulnerable defenses.

507
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:30,719
Speaker 2: The Rams have just a significantly better offense. There are

508
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 2: running back injuries, But I'm actually a big fan of

509
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 2: Zach Evans and I think his skill set can fit

510
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,880
Speaker 2: perfectly in this zone scheme, so I think he'll have

511
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,439
Speaker 2: some success running the ball. But the Rams should have

512
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 2: major advantages on the outside at receiver against this Steelers secondary.

513
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 2: They should hit many more explosive plays and the Steelers, look,

514
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 2: this is still a Matt Canada offense with Kenny Pickett

515
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 2: and a bad offensive line. I'll take the Rams laying

516
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 2: a field goal at home.

517
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 3: Somebody got to be all in for everybody to be

518
00:27:59,160 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 3: all in.

519
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 4: I don't I don't mind betting against Kenny Pickett with

520
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 4: a short number. There are I think some concerns with

521
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 4: the Rams in this spot Steers coming off a bide,

522
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 4: but also on offense are getting healthier.

523
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 3: You know, Pat Fryermoth should be back.

524
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 4: That is big for them, just because without him, like

525
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 4: you said, it's nothing but sideline throws. There's a chance

526
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 4: this offense could be at least healthier. I'm not gonna

527
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 4: say it's gonna be better. But my other concern is,

528
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 4: you know, Steers coming off of by, they do have

529
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 4: some time to prepare. I just I just hope it's

530
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 4: not another one of those games where Sean McVay kind

531
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 4: of overthinks it again like he did in that very

532
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 4: winnable Cincinnati game that they blew. Because without the running backs,

533
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 4: and we know how much he loves Kyen Williams, because

534
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 4: Barrey give anyone else to snap. I just worry that

535
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 4: McVey will abandon a run too soon and that'll give

536
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,479
Speaker 4: that Pittsburgh pass rush and why you know, some chances

537
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 4: to tee off on Stafford, and that's how you could

538
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 4: kind of muck up the game.

539
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 3: So a little bit concerned about that, but overall, I don't.

540
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,239
Speaker 4: I'm never gonna mind fading picket Ritter Wilson, like all

541
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 4: these guys.

542
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 3: Keith Fadies dude.

543
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 4: For my third and final pick, the fifth overall of

544
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 4: the week seven Sunday six pack, I'm going to hold

545
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 4: my nose and try to replicate what you did last week,

546
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 4: much shorter line, but give me the g Men plus

547
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 4: two at home against the Washington Commanders. Man. I think

548
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 4: the Giants could win this game, obviously, that's why we're

549
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 4: taking him inside of a field goal here. And the

550
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 4: reason I think the Giants could win this game is

551
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 4: and I don't. I think it's probably gonna be terror again.

552
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 4: I know Jones said he wants to play. I think

553
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 4: it's a multi week injury. We'll see, but.

554
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was multi week last time he had a

555
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 2: neck injury. Yeah said, he said he's gonna play and

556
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 2: Hews out for a while.

557
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 3: But you know, this is kind of what we do.

558
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 4: You know, you and I every year we do this pod,

559
00:29:55,960 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 4: seems around this time of year we start getting into Okay,

560
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 4: it's not about you know the market and what it

561
00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 4: was coming into here. Now it's about looking at these teams.

562
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 4: You know, six weeks in, what are they starting to

563
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 4: do to adjust?

564
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 3: Right?

565
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 4: And even though I thought the Giants still had some

566
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 4: coaching blunders obviously in that last game. And I don't

567
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 4: care what you know, how much Tyrod Terror wants to

568
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 4: take the blame. Act like as a coach, like you

569
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 4: just have to strike fear into that man to where

570
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 4: he cannot be audibling into a run. But I digress

571
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 4: all the adjustments I think the Giants have made positive. Please,

572
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 4: So you know Cordell flot coming into the lineup in

573
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 4: the in the nickel to get Trey Hawkins out of

574
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 4: there at the rookie corner, he had allowed seventy over

575
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 4: seventeen yards of target and over twenty three yards a catch,

576
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 4: So he's benched.

577
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 3: You got flat in the slot.

578
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 4: Now, Deontay Banks holding his own just thirteen catches on

579
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 4: twenty five targets, four point eight yards per targets, one

580
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 4: hundred twenty yards, giving up on one hundred and sixty

581
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 4: five snap coverage.

582
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 3: That's great.

583
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 4: Dori Jackson has been struggling somewhat, but he's still a

584
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 4: lot better than Hawkins, so I think the coverage is

585
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 4: a little bit better. I also like that wing Martindale

586
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 4: was able to show some restraints last week. He didn't

587
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 4: blitz every single down and every third down like he

588
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 4: might have done in the past, so I do see

589
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 4: the scheme kind of evolving a bit. However, in this situation,

590
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 4: I think you can blitz Sam Howe. He is twenty

591
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 4: six in PFF grade against the blitz The Giants of

592
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 4: blitzing is still at the fourth most four timees rate,

593
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 4: even after last week where they didn't blitz much. But

594
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 4: you also have some other more subtle defensive adjustments, so

595
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 4: you're starting to play your horses a little bit more

596
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 4: and over the long haul probably not great, but over

597
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 4: the short term for us to get get a win,

598
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 4: get off the schneid, I think it could work out.

599
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 4: So Leonard Williams last week percent of the snaps sixty

600
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 4: two percent weeks one through five, Dexter Lawrence eighty percent

601
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 4: of the snaps last week sixty eight percent in the

602
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 4: first five week. Both of them played season highs and snaps.

603
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 4: You know, you're just getting your best eleven on the

604
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 4: field more often on defense, and then you're doing the

605
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 4: same thing on offense. Slayton Hyatt and Wandeal Robinson were

606
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 4: the unquestioned top three receivers last game. Isaiah Hodgens only

607
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 4: mixed in the red zone, which is exactly where he

608
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 4: should be mixing in. You know, the old line is

609
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 4: still in shambles, so that's obviously a concern against this

610
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 4: Washington front. But with Saquon Barkley back, I think you

611
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 4: have more options. You know, screen game run a little

612
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 4: bit more to take the pressure off the quarterback. Uh,

613
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 4: you know, justin Pugh somehow is all like comes off

614
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 4: the couch that it was out of the NFL and

615
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 4: somehow is their best lineman. But I told you, I

616
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 4: told you, yeah, yeah, yeah, you called it like like

617
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 4: I'll take it. I'll take it like the way the

618
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 4: Giants looked on both sides of the ball last week.

619
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 4: We look at the schedule and took town and yes,

620
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 4: the Giants are bad, obviously, but they faced the hardest

621
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 4: schedule by DVA.

622
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 3: And you don't even need any advanced metrics.

623
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 4: Just look at the schedule Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, Miami, Buffalo,

624
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 4: whereas Washington faced the six easiest.

625
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 3: Schedule by dv OA.

626
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 4: They beat the Cardinals by four, they beat the Broncos

627
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 4: by two, They lost by twenty to the Chicago Bears.

628
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 4: So this Washington team has not really proven that it's

629
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 4: anything different from the Giants, just a cellar dweller. It's

630
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 4: just that the Giants have played one of the tough

631
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 4: the toughest schedule in the league.

632
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 3: Washington's played one of the easiest.

633
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 4: I think Washington is beatable in all facets, whether you

634
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 4: want to throw them or you want to run on them.

635
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 4: Just got to avoid the disaster from you know that

636
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 4: Washington d line still excellent risk on willing to take

637
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 4: getting points at home.

638
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 3: Give me the g men plus two home dogs against Washington.

639
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 2: Man. Yeah, I like this. As I said last week,

640
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 2: I really liked Tyrod Taylor. I think he's gonna start

641
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 2: again this week, coming in as a spark and it

642
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 2: just as a face of optimism. Everything has gone wrong

643
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 2: for Jones. He lost his footing, he lost his confidence

644
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 2: because of the offensive line, and they were able to

645
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 2: use Tyrod's mobility and kind of do a lot of

646
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 2: the things that they did last year with Daniel Jones

647
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 2: and moving him around and moving him out of the pocket.

648
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 2: I think the Giants are gonna blitz a bunch here

649
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 2: because samdl you mentioned twenty ninth at quarterback rating against

650
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 2: the blitz thirty percent pressure to sack percentage when blitzed.

651
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 2: That's massive. Only quarterback hires Russell Wilson, who just if

652
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 2: you blitz them, he just ducks and takes that. I mean,

653
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:40,280
Speaker 2: it's bad. And on the other side, you have Tyrod Taylor,

654
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 2: who is third all time among qualified quarterbacks in NFL

655
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 2: history in lowest interception rate. So he just doesn't make mistakes.

656
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,239
Speaker 2: He's very, very careful with the ball, and that's really

657
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 2: important in a divisional game with a super low total.

658
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 2: All right, for my third pick and the sixth overall

659
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 2: the Week seven Sunday six pack, you're not gonna like this.

660
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 2: I got a lot of notes, a lot of messages,

661
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 2: tweets and said, can we please remove this team from

662
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 2: the Sunday six pack? And don't be talking it down

663
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 2: because I don't know anything about quarterback. You understand this

664
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 2: one's for you. I got bad news people. We're gone

665
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 2: with the New England Patriots plus eight and a half

666
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 2: at home against the Buffalo Bills. I'm going back to

667
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 2: the well, I just can't get to this number. So

668
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 2: let's talk basic just market perception. I think the Patriots

669
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 2: at all time on no one wants to bet them.

670
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,800
Speaker 2: They're awful in all three phases. Right now, you're definitely

671
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 2: trying to catch the falling knife, make the commitment, trying

672
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 2: to win football games. But the Bills were minus eight

673
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 2: and a half at home against the Raiders earlier this

674
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 2: season in a great situational spot the Patriots and Raiders,

675
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 2: I have dead even on a neutral field, and I

676
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 2: did last week and after that game, you know, I

677
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 2: made it like one and a half. Now the Bills

678
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 2: are like eight and a half on the road England,

679
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 2: and they're down three all Pro caliber defenders. Their defense

680
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 2: was healthy for that game against Raiders, and there is

681
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 2: a massive drop off. It's not just that you're missing

682
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 2: those guys. There's a massive drop off from Daikwon Jones

683
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 2: to Tim Settle. There's a huge drop off from Matt

684
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 2: Mulano to a rookie and Dorian Williams, and a massive

685
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 2: drop off from Shrey White to kyer Elm. Like, it's

686
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 2: not just about when you lose a key player. It's

687
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 2: about how wealthy replacement player is playing same thing with

688
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 2: a quarterback. Von Miller's done all the way back. By

689
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 2: the way, Russo is still dealing with his injury. Lost

690
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,359
Speaker 2: In and Floyd are still banged up. The defense has

691
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 2: holes you can run on them, and I think there's

692
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 2: gonna be coverage holes, which you saw a little bit

693
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 2: of against the Giants, who had you know, guys from

694
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 2: the couch playing offensive line. Speaking of bad offensive lines,

695
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 2: the Patriots offensive line has been horrendous. It's not all

696
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 2: on Matt Jones. The pass catchers have been bad. The

697
00:36:56,480 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 2: offensive line has been so bad. Here's among one hundred

698
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 2: and ninety five offensive linemen with one hundred snaps this year.

699
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 2: Here's where some of the Patriots offensive lineman rank in

700
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 2: pass blocking at one hundred ninety five. Verdarian Lowe one

701
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:14,400
Speaker 2: eighty six, Calvin Anderson won seventy nine, City So one

702
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 2: eighty two, Antonio Maffi one eighty three. That's one seventy three,

703
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 2: one eighty six. They've played some games with all of

704
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 2: those guys in the game. There's a chance that all

705
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 2: of them will be out of the lineup this week.

706
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 2: You could get I think Cole Strange is probably gonna

707
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 2: come back. They signed Connor mcdermoty who might be the

708
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 2: He's a much better option in the Vernarian low You

709
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 2: cannot play with Verdarian Lowe out there. Riley Reef also

710
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 2: could come back, so you could get a boost in

711
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:43,880
Speaker 2: the offensive line. I can't tell you how bad some

712
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 2: of their offensive line lineups and rotations have been this

713
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 2: year with some of those guys that just some of

714
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 2: the worst in the league when it comes to pass blocking.

715
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 2: And it's not just because there's gonna be anything when

716
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 2: good in there, it's that you're just putting replacement level

717
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 2: players in there for guys who have been absolutely horrific.

718
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 2: I think the Patriots will be able to run the

719
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,359
Speaker 2: ball a little bit on the Bills, which you can do,

720
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:07,359
Speaker 2: and this Bill's defense just isn't healthy. It's gonna take

721
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 2: some time for McDermott to figure this out and to

722
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 2: make the adjustments because he based had to replace three

723
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:16,720
Speaker 2: All Pro caliber players with players who are nowhere close

724
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 2: to that caliber. So I just simply can't get to

725
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 2: this number. And by the way, the Buffalo offense is

726
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 2: completely out of rhythm right now. Josh Allen's also dealing

727
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 2: with some soreness. I can't get to this number. The

728
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 2: Patriots also have been They've been extremely unlucky in terms

729
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:35,959
Speaker 2: of field goals, fourth downs, and fumbles, all these very

730
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 2: high variant stats that have made some of these scores

731
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 2: look a bit lopsided. And for what it's worth, three

732
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 2: of their losses have come by one possession, two of

733
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 2: them at home against the Eagles and Dolphins. I don't

734
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 2: want to do it, but I have to. With this number,

735
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 2: the first time Bill Belichick will close above a touchdown

736
00:38:55,480 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 2: underdog at home since Tom Brady's first start to thousand

737
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 2: and one. I'm buying the Patriots. I apologize in advance.

738
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 4: Now it's the right play. It's it's absolutely the right play.

739
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:10,280
Speaker 4: You just got to keep hammering these teams today today,

740
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:10,799
Speaker 4: get a cover.

741
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:12,319
Speaker 3: Honestly, you can't let.

742
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 2: Last week impact like the team burn you a lot

743
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 2: of times, because maybe when that happens, you might end

744
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 2: up having value on them the next week. Last week

745
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:21,879
Speaker 2: already happened a lot of times. You have to hold

746
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 2: your nose and you gotta go back. It doesn't like

747
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,319
Speaker 2: this week's it's a silo, right, just because the team

748
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 2: burned you in the past. Doesn't mean you can't go

749
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 2: back to them. Unfortunately, that's what my numbers are telling me.

750
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 2: I gotta do it.

751
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, And there's a couple of things I think that

752
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 4: are working in the Patriots favor. First of all, you

753
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 4: mentioned the O line getting healthier. Also, it can't get

754
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 4: any worse at pass catchers, so you're starting to get

755
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,479
Speaker 4: some more healthy bodies back there. You know, do Mario

756
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:47,759
Speaker 4: Douglas this last week with a concussion. He's been their

757
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 4: best receiver in my opinion. Also, but Josh Allen that

758
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:53,800
Speaker 4: shoulder injury. This is the time of year where you

759
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 4: know guys will play through things. But last year the

760
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:57,760
Speaker 4: Bills went through a little bit of a lull on offense,

761
00:39:57,760 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 4: went now and got an injury, and you know it

762
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,279
Speaker 4: was he played through it, but it just doesn't look

763
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 4: the same. And I started to notice that down to

764
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 4: down consistency. I didn't see it from Josh Allen.

765
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 3: Last week.

766
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 4: His adjusted completion rate, which you know you're taking out

767
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 4: spikes and throwers and drops and all that, it was

768
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 4: just sixty five and a half percent for the year.

769
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 4: His average is over eighty percent. So yeah, I agree

770
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 4: with this one. So that that's gonna do it. For

771
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 4: the week seventh Sunday six pack to recap, Stuck has

772
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 4: the Ravens minus three against the Lions, the Rams minus

773
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 4: three against the Steelers, and the Patriots plus eight and

774
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 4: a half at home against the Buffalo Bills. I have

775
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:40,800
Speaker 4: the Los Angeles Chargers plus five and a half at

776
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 4: Kansas City, the Bucks minus two and a half against

777
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 4: the Atlanta Falcons. Don't mind the money line either, you

778
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 4: know under one fifty. Don't mind that either. And my

779
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:57,359
Speaker 4: third pick the Giants plus two home dogs against the Commanders.

780
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:04,280
Speaker 4: Now it is tom four, our week number seven coaches

781
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,359
Speaker 4: pep talk. Every time we get ready to play, I

782
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 4: just want to throw up so the press, I don't

783
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 4: even want to talk about it.

784
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:12,720
Speaker 2: I'm sick. I'm watching you guys play.

785
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:15,319
Speaker 4: This week's coach is pep talk comes to us from

786
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:18,880
Speaker 4: actor Philip Seymour Hoffman in the two thousand and seven

787
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 4: film Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, And we got

788
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 4: to dedicate this to the New England Patriots.

789
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:28,320
Speaker 3: It's not fair.

790
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 2: It's not fair.

791
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,760
Speaker 3: You can't just say sorry and make it all go away.

792
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 2: It's too late.

793
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 3: It's not that easy. It's not fair. It's not fucking fair.

794
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 5: You can't do that.

795
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 3: Best e luck to the past, Best of luck to you.

796
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 2: We've come a long way from the Patriots being two

797
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:54,279
Speaker 2: point home dogs to the Dolphins and field goal home

798
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:55,240
Speaker 2: dogs to the Eagles.

799
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 4: All right, Stuck you and I know more memories made

800
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 4: when you're there for live NFL action. When you need tickets,

801
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:06,480
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802
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 4: Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your perfect seat.

803
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Speaker 4: Their interactive seat map gives you three hundred and sixty

804
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 4: degree previews of your section to make sure you have

805
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 4: the best view of those pivotal plays and if your

806
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Speaker 4: plans change. Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to sell or

807
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Speaker 4: transfer your tickets. Plus mobile tickets make getting in on

808
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 4: game day a breeze, and you can even customize your

809
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Speaker 4: Ticketmaster app to rep your favorite team's colors. Fud tickets

810
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:38,360
Speaker 4: today at ticketmaster dot com. Slash NFL time for our totals.

811
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 4: Favorite totals of the week. Stuck to you knowing a

812
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 4: lot of overs your three and three. I'm five and one,

813
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 4: so I think that this lower scoring the season might

814
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 4: have might have not been the greatest time to go

815
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 4: with some of these overs, but it's been a lot

816
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 4: of bad, bad beats.

817
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 2: We're going to go back to another over, and I'm

818
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:56,840
Speaker 2: going with the Lions Ravens over forty two. This number

819
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 2: is too suppressed. This is the same number against the

820
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,760
Speaker 2: Titans last week, and the lines have a much better offense,

821
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 2: just as questionable secondary. Look we've seen historically. It's hard

822
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 2: to really pinpoint this with the sample size, but these

823
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 2: trips back from London, they have impacted defense more so

824
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:14,399
Speaker 2: though with the Bills last week. I think every team

825
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 2: but one of the Giants have gone over their team total,

826
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 2: and the Giants failed at the one twice. And I

827
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:22,400
Speaker 2: think every team has been leading in the fourth against

828
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:24,799
Speaker 2: the teams coming back from London. But look, I think

829
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 2: both of these offenses are a bit underrated. They both

830
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:31,879
Speaker 2: dealt with injuries this season. I mean, people aren't talking

831
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 2: enough about the offensive injuries that the Lions.

832
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 3: Have dealt with.

833
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 2: I think there's just an overreaction to this total getting

834
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 2: some value on the over. And I talked about the

835
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 2: Ravens offense. They dealt with some injuries. They now have

836
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 2: everyone kind of assimilated back. They've been close, you know,

837
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 2: it's just red zone issues. Last week, it was drops

838
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 2: the week before. They've also played a very tough schedule

839
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 2: of opposing defenses. They've also dealt with some weather in

840
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 2: a lot of their games. On the other side, I

841
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,800
Speaker 2: think both defenses are over I think the Ravens defenses

842
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 2: has benefited from playing Stroud in his first start of

843
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 2: the road, with a piecemeal offensive line with Weather hurt Burrow,

844
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:13,080
Speaker 2: Minshew and Weather dtr Kenny Pickett, and then even last

845
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 2: week Tannehill gets hurt. I mean, I just all they're

846
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 2: doing is playing Weather and backup quarterbacks the entire season.

847
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:21,400
Speaker 2: I think the Ravens get the twenty eight to thirty

848
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:25,400
Speaker 2: and the lines of fourteen straight games over twenty points,

849
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 2: that includes eight straight outdoors for golf. I'll call this

850
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 2: thirty to twenty four Ravens.

851
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm surprised to see this total this low. Like,

852
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 4: I know, both of these defenses are playing well, but

853
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 4: this is still a low total for two of the

854
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:43,720
Speaker 4: better offenses in the league, and especially what you expect

855
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:45,400
Speaker 4: a close game, you know, kind of back and forth,

856
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 4: and if this game is close, like Lamar Jackson's gonna

857
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:50,880
Speaker 4: do what he does outside the pocket so yeah, I

858
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 4: like this one.

859
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 3: For me.

860
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:57,319
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Browns Colts under forty and you've

861
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:59,479
Speaker 4: been talking about it all year. I'm just gonna trust

862
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,839
Speaker 4: this Browns defense to get us there. Cleveland's number one

863
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:06,359
Speaker 4: on defense and DVA, number one against the pass, also

864
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 4: number four against the run, sixth in pressure rate. I

865
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 4: think that's big because the Coats have not faced a

866
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 4: defense ranked higher than number sixteen in pressure eight Jacksonville.

867
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 4: Everyone else they face has been below average. Houston, Baltimore,

868
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 4: the Rams, the Titans. They've faced some pretty pretty substandard,

869
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 4: you know, pass rushes in his first six weeks. Now

870
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 4: you're gonna face this Cleveland defense in this Cleveland pass rush. Well,

871
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 4: Gardner Minshew against pressure this season, that's where he's kind

872
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 4: of getting exposed, putting the ball in harms way. He

873
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 4: ranks dead last of thirty five quarterbacks in PFF grade

874
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 4: under pressure, a twenty three point two. I mean a

875
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 4: bad grade is usually in the fifties or forties. Twenty

876
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 4: three point two is just miserable. Seventy seventy one percent

877
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 4: rate just under seven yards in attempt in an eighty

878
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,880
Speaker 4: eight passer rating from a clean pocket for Minshew, completion

879
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 4: rate drops twenty points to fifty one percent under pressure,

880
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 4: the yards per attempt goes from six point nine to

881
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:15,840
Speaker 4: five point three, so over a yard and a half

882
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 4: of a drop off there, and the passer rating drops

883
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 4: twenty almost twenty five points down to a sixty five.

884
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 4: So Minchew just has not been good. It tends to

885
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,880
Speaker 4: be the case with these backup quarterbacks. You know, the

886
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:30,839
Speaker 4: more they have to play, the ugly it's going to get,

887
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 4: especially in these high pressure situations. Easily the best defense

888
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:37,759
Speaker 4: that the Culture faith right tackle Braydon Smith has a

889
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:41,800
Speaker 4: hip injury, may miss another game. He is top fifteen

890
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 4: out of just over seventy tackles in terms of how

891
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:48,600
Speaker 4: he's grading out, So that is a loss there. And

892
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:51,759
Speaker 4: then on the other side of the ball, regardless of

893
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:54,360
Speaker 4: who's that quarterback for Cleveland, and it sounds like Deshaun

894
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 4: Watson's just not still not right with his shoulder, probably

895
00:46:56,960 --> 00:47:01,319
Speaker 4: gonna miss another week. So but either way, defense is

896
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 4: the least blitz happy defense in the league. They blitzed

897
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:07,000
Speaker 4: just under sixteen percent of the time. Well, Deshaun Watson

898
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:11,279
Speaker 4: went not blwitzed. Ranks twenty six to thirty seven. Quarterbacks

899
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 4: in terms of how he grades out last year forty

900
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 4: second out of forty three. And then if you think

901
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:20,360
Speaker 4: Watson is bad against the blitz PJ. Walker, he grades

902
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 4: out the worst of any quarterback when not Blwitz, a

903
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 4: twenty two point seven grade, which is terrible, Like you're

904
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 4: not being blitzed, Like, come on, bro, I like the

905
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:30,920
Speaker 4: matchup for both defenses. I know it is indoors the

906
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 4: only not because there are a few weather games, But

907
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:35,359
Speaker 4: I just think the numbers for the for the weather

908
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 4: games have kind of come down with it too much,

909
00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:39,719
Speaker 4: Whereas I think this number, you'll be lucky if you

910
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 4: get to the to the mid thirties. Either one of

911
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 4: these offenses could weigh an egg. Like I think you

912
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:46,640
Speaker 4: could see like another twenty seven to three Browns win.

913
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 4: But I also think you could see the Browns only

914
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:51,840
Speaker 4: score you know ten, you know, single digits or not

915
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:54,120
Speaker 4: much more than that. So a lot of different ways

916
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:59,839
Speaker 4: I think we can get here with this under forty Cleveland, Indianapolis, Like.

917
00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:03,399
Speaker 3: All right, let's go to our favorite teasers.

918
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 4: Of the week.

919
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:08,279
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

920
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:21,719
Speaker 3: Change, don't tease me these, I stuck. You've hit five

921
00:48:21,719 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 3: out of six, I've hit four out of six. Uh,

922
00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 3: this is your specialty.

923
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:27,919
Speaker 4: You got a lot of great content out explaining your

924
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:30,439
Speaker 4: philosophy and how you're trying to tease through the three

925
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 4: into seven if possible. So I think we got the

926
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 4: same teaser this week, so you could just sell the

927
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:35,879
Speaker 4: people what are we doing?

928
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna go Seahawks down from We're gonna cross

929
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 2: through seven and three in both of these Seahawks down

930
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:44,359
Speaker 2: from seven and a half to one and a half

931
00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 2: lower ish total you're under forty five. You want to

932
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,960
Speaker 2: ideally cross through three and seven, and then you also

933
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:54,719
Speaker 2: want to have lower totals like Dolphins Eagles. Not the

934
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:56,799
Speaker 2: most ideal teaser, Beece. Even though you can get through

935
00:48:56,800 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 2: three seven, it's to high total, there's gonna be more

936
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:05,879
Speaker 2: variants there and presumably more points. So with the Seahawks, look,

937
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:07,439
Speaker 2: I mean I've been impressed with their defense. You can't

938
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 2: run on them at all. And so what this is

939
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 2: up to Josh Dobbs in a loud environment against with

940
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:18,319
Speaker 2: a bad offensive line. I just don't see it happening

941
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 2: the other side, Seattle, can you just lean on their

942
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 2: run game here if they want to, and then you

943
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 2: can run all over Arizona. That'll set up easy passes

944
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:28,320
Speaker 2: for Gino against a seculary that has to play cushion

945
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:30,719
Speaker 2: with a lot of cushion, and then they're getting the

946
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 2: lowest pressure rate in the NFL. There's nothing to like

947
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:35,200
Speaker 2: about this Arizona team. Everyone was like, oh wait in

948
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 2: Arizona because they beat the Cowboys. I think that was

949
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 2: just an odd game. Since then, they've just been crushed

950
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:44,840
Speaker 2: by everybody. Seahawk should bounce back from a game they

951
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 2: should have won. They've also been extremely unlucky on late

952
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:49,960
Speaker 2: downs on both sides of the ball, so you could

953
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:52,920
Speaker 2: have some positive regression coming there for Seattle. And then

954
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:55,720
Speaker 2: we're gonna see the Giants up very low total divisional

955
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:58,920
Speaker 2: game going through three and seven. And I think also

956
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 2: what you want you also don't want when you're teasing

957
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:04,960
Speaker 2: these dogs up in low total. You don't want to

958
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:07,759
Speaker 2: make mistakes. And we have Tyrod Taylor, who doesn't throw picks,

959
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 2: doesn't make mistakes because that's how you really could get burnt.

960
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:13,760
Speaker 2: And so I think Sam Hal has a much higher

961
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 2: chance of making a key mistake here. So you know,

962
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 2: even if the Giants offense isn't doing much, Tala is

963
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 2: not going to kill them with turnovers like Daniel Jones would.

964
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:24,799
Speaker 2: If Jones does end up playing for what, it's where

965
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 2: he has dominated Washington. It's like his favorite team to

966
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:31,719
Speaker 2: play against. His numbers against at least five to one

967
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:33,920
Speaker 2: to one. His numbers against them are ridiculous. But I

968
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 2: think the Giants keep this with in one possession, lower

969
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:40,120
Speaker 2: scoring game, low total. So let's go Seahawks and Giants.

970
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:43,879
Speaker 3: Yep, going with the same one. So we'll just get

971
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:44,399
Speaker 3: out of here.

972
00:50:44,680 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 4: And as a reminder, the Action Network podcast is presented

973
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:52,560
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974
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975
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976
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Speaker 4: For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

977
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:14,360
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978
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979
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:23,560
Speaker 4: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, Time

980
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 4: for our underdog money line Parley.

981
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:36,080
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

982
00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:39,319
Speaker 1: money line parlay finally caught.

983
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 4: We're two and four on a year, so not as

984
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:45,040
Speaker 4: good as usual as we usually do, but still long

985
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 4: season ahead of us. Washington came through last week. The Patriots,

986
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 4: of course did not.

987
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:51,879
Speaker 3: Who are going with this week?

988
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:55,799
Speaker 2: Let's just got the quarterback Beariants with the dog. Let's

989
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 2: go to the Bears Tyson Baijin who played it in the

990
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 2: pea sack to Shepherd University. I don't put any stock

991
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:05,719
Speaker 2: in the preseason. Some people do, but he actually at

992
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:07,799
Speaker 2: least got some experience last week. He's gonna be going

993
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 2: against Brian Hoyer, Aidan O'Connell, Bear secondaries at least getting healthier.

994
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:15,279
Speaker 2: Who this is? I mean, it's just basically how much

995
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:18,160
Speaker 2: cast can Max Crosby, cause that's basically what I'm worried about.

996
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:20,480
Speaker 2: It usually lines up against the right tackle, and Darnold

997
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 2: Wright's actually been the Bears best offensive line and he's

998
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 2: actually been pretty good the rookie. The Raiders might move

999
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:27,919
Speaker 2: him around more the rest of the Bears offensive line.

1000
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:32,120
Speaker 2: It's dire, but yeah, I mean game of backup quarterbacks

1001
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:34,560
Speaker 2: and who knows what the fucking appen. I'll happily take

1002
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:37,759
Speaker 2: the home dog on the money line in a game

1003
00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 2: with a ton of variants.

1004
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's like everyone exactly, like the Raiders is just like, oh,

1005
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:45,600
Speaker 4: come in and easy win, favorite.

1006
00:52:45,239 --> 00:52:47,120
Speaker 3: On the road, three wayne three.

1007
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:49,920
Speaker 4: You know, the Raiders are in just as much of

1008
00:52:49,960 --> 00:52:53,640
Speaker 4: a quarterback conundrum as the as the Bears. And Jimmy

1009
00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 4: garoppowlo WHI just magically, you know, heals up. So I

1010
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:58,840
Speaker 4: mean it's gonna be either Aidan O'Connell.

1011
00:52:58,520 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 3: Or or Hoyer.

1012
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 4: It might be O'Connell who just did nothing but take sacks,

1013
00:53:03,360 --> 00:53:06,799
Speaker 4: you know, not great pocket awareness in that first start.

1014
00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, Breakers are kind of like the like the Commanders.

1015
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:10,880
Speaker 2: By the way, they're three and three, but they have

1016
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 2: wins over the Patriots, Broncos, and Packers, a banged up

1017
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:19,240
Speaker 2: Packers team by one, four and four.

1018
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:22,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're they're not good. They're not good.

1019
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:25,000
Speaker 4: That was Jimmy's not one hundred percent ruled out yet, right.

1020
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 4: I think it sounds like he's not gonna play, but

1021
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 4: I don't think they've officially ruled him out. So because yeah,

1022
00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:32,400
Speaker 4: this line is a little bit, a little bit steep.

1023
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:33,480
Speaker 3: So yeah, the.

1024
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,280
Speaker 4: Bear's a plus one thirty five on the money line.

1025
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:39,440
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Miami Dolphins plus one ten at Philly,

1026
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 4: and you know they're this is just a kind of

1027
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:46,080
Speaker 4: Miami obviously is a high variance team, just because they

1028
00:53:46,080 --> 00:53:49,400
Speaker 4: rely on explosive plays and you know, just kind of

1029
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:53,799
Speaker 4: unique advantages that not really many other teams rely on.

1030
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 3: But this is you know, we're early in the week

1031
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:56,759
Speaker 3: recording this.

1032
00:53:56,920 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 4: It's Wednesday, and this is just a bet on the

1033
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:05,640
Speaker 4: Eagles lack of health because but Lane Johnson ankle injury.

1034
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:07,160
Speaker 2: That's big, you know big.

1035
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:08,080
Speaker 3: The Eagles are.

1036
00:54:08,000 --> 00:54:10,520
Speaker 4: Eighty four to forty eight and one sixty four percent

1037
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:13,520
Speaker 4: straight up, averaging over twenty six points a game with

1038
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:16,440
Speaker 4: Johnson in the lineup since he's drafted. Without him, just

1039
00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:19,840
Speaker 4: thirteen and twenty two thirty seven percent straight up twenty

1040
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:21,839
Speaker 4: two point three points a game, So a four point

1041
00:54:21,880 --> 00:54:25,919
Speaker 4: drop off and a twenty six point twenty seven point

1042
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:29,880
Speaker 4: drop off in terms of the win percentage, so massive.

1043
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:33,440
Speaker 4: Your left guard Jurgens is still on IR. His replacement

1044
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:36,719
Speaker 4: hasn't been as good. Your number three receiver, Quiz Watkins.

1045
00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:37,319
Speaker 3: Is on IR.

1046
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:41,480
Speaker 4: Julio Jones is not gonna fill that void. Who they

1047
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:46,160
Speaker 4: just signed Avonte Maddox Fierson Roby's out, So the cornerback

1048
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:48,920
Speaker 4: situation still not great, and that's a big issue against Miami.

1049
00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:51,839
Speaker 4: You know, Darius Slay is questionable, see if he can go.

1050
00:54:52,080 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 4: Their safety blanket Ship is also questionable. D line is

1051
00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 4: not completely healthy either. We'll see if Carter can go.

1052
00:54:57,600 --> 00:55:02,040
Speaker 4: But the banged up secondary issue Philadelphia's defense.

1053
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 3: The injuries have already taken their toll.

1054
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 4: Philadelphia are just twentieth in DVA against the past. They're

1055
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:10,320
Speaker 4: giving up the fifth most catches to wide receivers, the

1056
00:55:10,760 --> 00:55:14,360
Speaker 4: tenth most yards, and the fourth most touchdowns to wide receivers.

1057
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:16,200
Speaker 3: So this this game could.

1058
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:18,560
Speaker 4: Get out of hand for Philly if and Philly's offense

1059
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:21,719
Speaker 4: has looked a little bit disjointed. Now Miami isn't a

1060
00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:24,000
Speaker 4: tough defense to go against, but now you're down to

1061
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:26,840
Speaker 4: some old linemen, your offense has been out of sinc

1062
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:29,359
Speaker 4: this could easily get away from the Eagles if it's

1063
00:55:29,400 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 4: just a bad spot injury wise.

1064
00:55:31,080 --> 00:55:33,320
Speaker 3: So I'll take the Eagle. I'll take the Dolphins plus

1065
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:35,359
Speaker 3: one ten on the money line.

1066
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, really interesting game. One of us will haven't written

1067
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:40,799
Speaker 2: up Miami's averaging eight yards per play, but they played

1068
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 2: the easiest schedule of opposing defenses. This year they played

1069
00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:46,880
Speaker 2: nobody a bunch of clowns besides the Bills who they

1070
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:49,879
Speaker 2: got crushed by and the Patriots who slowed them down.

1071
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:52,799
Speaker 2: But there are other games just spin against clowns. But

1072
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:55,920
Speaker 2: there are offenses obviously elite. It's not eight yards per

1073
00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 2: play good. But and yeah, you mentioned Eagles struggles against

1074
00:55:58,960 --> 00:56:01,400
Speaker 2: the pass now injury. Yeah, and they really struggle over

1075
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:03,759
Speaker 2: the middle of the field, and that's where Miami can

1076
00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:07,120
Speaker 2: attack you. So it's but this is explosive verse methodical,

1077
00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:08,960
Speaker 2: like who's gonna win out? Can the Eagles just have

1078
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:11,879
Speaker 2: these long drives and wear out the Dolphins? And how

1079
00:56:11,880 --> 00:56:15,160
Speaker 2: many exposive place can this Miami team hit by attacking

1080
00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 2: a vulnerable Eagles pass defense Man Twitching says, Miami sneaks

1081
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:23,360
Speaker 2: u out should be a fun one.

1082
00:56:25,000 --> 00:56:28,840
Speaker 4: So Bears plus one thirty five at home against the Raiders,

1083
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:32,839
Speaker 4: Dolphins plus one ten on the road against the Eagles.

1084
00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:37,760
Speaker 4: If you parlay those together, you get plus three ninety

1085
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:40,200
Speaker 4: four sous under four to one.

1086
00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:42,480
Speaker 3: Hopefully we can cast that.

1087
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:45,480
Speaker 4: I Finally, we've got best of the rest games we

1088
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 4: haven't covered in any other segment, but are still as

1089
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:52,920
Speaker 4: they say, meaningful to some That's gonna be a touchdown,

1090
00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:55,960
Speaker 4: but that may be meaningful to some of you, so

1091
00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 4: you know what I mean. So the only one here

1092
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:03,920
Speaker 4: is the packers at the Broncos. Broncos are one point

1093
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:09,080
Speaker 4: home underdogs. The total is at forty five. I'm mostly

1094
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:11,520
Speaker 4: in line with the market on this I have. I

1095
00:57:11,560 --> 00:57:13,359
Speaker 4: think I have it as a pick. Actually some maybe

1096
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:16,560
Speaker 4: slight value on Denver, but I'm not touching I'm not

1097
00:57:16,600 --> 00:57:20,360
Speaker 4: touching Denver. And then Jordan Love is kind of kind

1098
00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:22,479
Speaker 4: of what I expected. You know, he's got arm talent,

1099
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:24,680
Speaker 4: but some of the mechanics still a little sloppy eats,

1100
00:57:25,000 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 4: forcing some inaccuracy down the field, even though he has

1101
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:30,640
Speaker 4: arm strength, forcing some some bad reads from time to time.

1102
00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:32,760
Speaker 4: I think the buy will help green Bay because when

1103
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:34,680
Speaker 4: I watch green Bay, I see a lot of correctable

1104
00:57:34,680 --> 00:57:37,640
Speaker 4: things like Love, just the way he's dropping back, and

1105
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 4: you know, things like his where his shoulders are square

1106
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:44,520
Speaker 4: too as he's releasing the ball, his footwork, Christian Watson

1107
00:57:44,520 --> 00:57:46,520
Speaker 4: in turn making you know, reads on some of those

1108
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 4: choice routes. You got to be able to do that

1109
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 4: as a number one, as a true number one wide receiver.

1110
00:57:51,200 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 3: If you want to get to there.

1111
00:57:52,040 --> 00:57:54,640
Speaker 4: You also got Aaron Jones coming back, which should be

1112
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:57,840
Speaker 4: good against a bad run defense. So I think the

1113
00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 4: buye does benefit the the Packers, But going to Denver

1114
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:03,640
Speaker 4: is still a tough spot to play, especially for a

1115
00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:05,080
Speaker 4: young quarterback like Love.

1116
00:58:05,160 --> 00:58:08,000
Speaker 2: What do you think, Yeah, I mean Love has struggled

1117
00:58:08,000 --> 00:58:10,520
Speaker 2: a bit recently, but he's also still on experience, and

1118
00:58:10,520 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 2: he's also the offense had a ton of injuries on

1119
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:14,560
Speaker 2: the offensive line. Aaron Jones, Christian Watson like these are

1120
00:58:14,600 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 2: all important players that they've been missing, so they should

1121
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:20,960
Speaker 2: be much healthier here. They're also blitzing a lot on defense,

1122
00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:23,200
Speaker 2: and Russ is done. He's done against the blitz. He

1123
00:58:23,200 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 2: can't do anything. He's the worst quarterback in the league

1124
00:58:25,400 --> 00:58:28,400
Speaker 2: by far against the blitz this year. So I'm in

1125
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:29,960
Speaker 2: line with the market ere I make the backers. I

1126
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,560
Speaker 2: think like one one and a half point favorites. Denver's

1127
00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:35,480
Speaker 2: allowing a fourteen percent explosive play rate, which is Insane's

1128
00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 2: the highest the NFL. So Packers could hit some big

1129
00:58:39,560 --> 00:58:42,040
Speaker 2: plays here what I'll be looking for and this is

1130
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:44,880
Speaker 2: something for the rest of the season, until you know,

1131
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:49,640
Speaker 2: maybe the Broncos blow it all up. The Broncos offense

1132
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:54,560
Speaker 2: has been elite early on in games. The scripted portion

1133
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:58,440
Speaker 2: that Peyton is putting together every week has been really good.

1134
00:58:59,160 --> 00:59:00,640
Speaker 2: And then everyone is it's like, all right, let's just

1135
00:59:00,680 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 2: blitz Russell Wilson and then he just ducks and gets sacked.

1136
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:07,960
Speaker 2: So so the Broncos like, there's a good chance here.

1137
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:10,440
Speaker 2: They come out, Maybe first two off of the drives

1138
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:14,040
Speaker 2: look good, maybe they go up seven ten nothing. Look

1139
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:16,480
Speaker 2: for the Packers. Live then because this defense is not

1140
00:59:16,520 --> 00:59:20,040
Speaker 2: holding any leads the Broncos offense and falls off a cliff.

1141
00:59:20,360 --> 00:59:22,160
Speaker 4: And hopefully the Packers come out with a better plan.

1142
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:24,120
Speaker 4: I think their play call has been up and down.

1143
00:59:24,440 --> 00:59:27,440
Speaker 4: Some of the play designs have been good, some have

1144
00:59:27,560 --> 00:59:29,600
Speaker 4: not been so good, but some of the just the

1145
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:31,400
Speaker 4: sequencing of plays for them.

1146
00:59:31,480 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think out of all teams that.

1147
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:35,520
Speaker 4: Could have used to buy right now, I think the

1148
00:59:35,560 --> 00:59:37,880
Speaker 4: Packers are at the top of the list. And yeah, Russ,

1149
00:59:37,920 --> 00:59:39,640
Speaker 4: I mean against the blitz, what do you want the

1150
00:59:39,640 --> 00:59:42,840
Speaker 4: guy to do? Like nobody gets open on this team

1151
00:59:43,200 --> 00:59:46,479
Speaker 4: like that. That's including I mean, Jerry Judy, you gotta,

1152
00:59:46,560 --> 00:59:49,200
Speaker 4: you gotta, you gotta sign with these these doubters. I

1153
00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:52,080
Speaker 4: mean You're supposed to be the best receiver on his team. Really,

1154
00:59:52,560 --> 00:59:54,960
Speaker 4: what ten day break? Now we need to see more

1155
00:59:55,160 --> 00:59:58,760
Speaker 4: of Marvin Mims because Judy's not getting open. Sutton's never

1156
00:59:58,960 --> 01:00:01,800
Speaker 4: been a separator. Uh, you know, Judy's kind of giving

1157
01:00:01,840 --> 01:00:04,760
Speaker 4: up on routes. Russ's best at the scramble drills, and

1158
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:07,720
Speaker 4: these guys don't run hard through like through their routes.

1159
01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:09,560
Speaker 3: They don't you know, once the route is over, they

1160
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 3: kind of stop.

1161
01:00:10,520 --> 01:00:13,160
Speaker 4: Hopefully Lafloor runs the ball because you know, put Jordan

1162
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:15,640
Speaker 4: Love still I think gonna be interception prom just because

1163
01:00:15,680 --> 01:00:17,800
Speaker 4: some of the mechanics. So you know, the Packers, it

1164
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 4: seems like three years now they just needed to run

1165
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:21,880
Speaker 4: the ball more and stop the run on defense.

1166
01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:23,160
Speaker 3: A lot of schematic things.

1167
01:00:23,000 --> 01:00:25,200
Speaker 4: I would like to see change on both sides, But

1168
01:00:25,600 --> 01:00:28,400
Speaker 4: Packers I think are the better team going my high.

1169
01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:30,200
Speaker 4: Tough place to play. Nothing for me on this one.

1170
01:00:30,520 --> 01:00:33,160
Speaker 4: Let's close it up with Survivor.

1171
01:00:34,960 --> 01:00:42,360
Speaker 1: The Survivor Pool pick of the week.

1172
01:00:43,800 --> 01:00:47,160
Speaker 4: All right, this week I gotta go Seattle went Washington

1173
01:00:47,240 --> 01:00:53,640
Speaker 4: Week one, Giants, Chiefs, Niners, Dolphins, Bills. Seattle this week

1174
01:00:53,720 --> 01:00:56,040
Speaker 4: makes a ton of sense to me. You kind of

1175
01:00:56,080 --> 01:01:00,160
Speaker 4: mentioned it. The Cardinals are dead last pressure rate. You know,

1176
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:02,040
Speaker 4: Smith has been one of the best quarterbacks from a

1177
01:01:02,080 --> 01:01:04,880
Speaker 4: clean pocket this year yards pert tempt five point one

1178
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 4: under pressure, eight point three when cleaned, completion percentage fifty

1179
01:01:09,400 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 4: one percent under pressure, seventy seven percent when clean.

1180
01:01:13,320 --> 01:01:15,040
Speaker 3: Should be clean most of his game in.

1181
01:01:15,160 --> 01:01:20,200
Speaker 4: Seattle already top three and explosive plays on offense. Well,

1182
01:01:20,240 --> 01:01:23,640
Speaker 4: now you're also going to have down to down consistency

1183
01:01:23,640 --> 01:01:27,160
Speaker 4: against his defense because Arizona is dead last and early

1184
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 4: down success rate.

1185
01:01:30,040 --> 01:01:32,960
Speaker 3: Yep, bottom three, play way off.

1186
01:01:32,960 --> 01:01:34,560
Speaker 2: So you can just make so many easy throws. It's

1187
01:01:34,560 --> 01:01:34,960
Speaker 2: a mess.

1188
01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's not a lot of talent, so they have

1189
01:01:36,840 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 4: no choice. Then those corners are gonna get burned if

1190
01:01:39,240 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 4: they don't.

1191
01:01:39,960 --> 01:01:40,120
Speaker 2: Uh.

1192
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:42,760
Speaker 4: And on the other side, you mentioned it, Seattle could

1193
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:45,120
Speaker 4: make you one dimensional and they'll probably have a lead.

1194
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:47,400
Speaker 4: So it should be a good game for Seattle's defense,

1195
01:01:47,840 --> 01:01:52,520
Speaker 4: good game for Seattle's offense. And Seattle Washington in week ten,

1196
01:01:53,120 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 4: but in Washington's better than Arizona, and then week seventeen Pittsburgh,

1197
01:01:56,840 --> 01:01:58,960
Speaker 4: But that's Tomlin dog spot weight in the year, you

1198
01:01:59,040 --> 01:02:01,360
Speaker 4: might be gunning for that, you know, five hundred over

1199
01:02:01,400 --> 01:02:02,480
Speaker 4: five hundred whatever it is.

1200
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:04,800
Speaker 3: So I think this is the best time. You see

1201
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:05,440
Speaker 3: how their other.

1202
01:02:05,280 --> 01:02:09,400
Speaker 4: Home games Cleveland, San Francisco and Philly besides that, besides

1203
01:02:09,480 --> 01:02:12,160
Speaker 4: Washington and pit So it's it's I think it's now

1204
01:02:12,200 --> 01:02:15,240
Speaker 4: or never for the Seahawks. So we're gonna go with

1205
01:02:15,280 --> 01:02:17,520
Speaker 4: them and try to survive for a seventh Street week.

1206
01:02:18,440 --> 01:02:21,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, you got the sweat of the yard out for

1207
01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:24,360
Speaker 2: the Giants. Survive. That's what it's all about.

1208
01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:27,440
Speaker 4: So yeah, I agree, got real bad there, but that's

1209
01:02:27,480 --> 01:02:29,439
Speaker 4: a rat for us. Thanks for listening. We'll be back

1210
01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:33,840
Speaker 4: here every Thursday all season long, and you can hear

1211
01:02:34,440 --> 01:02:36,800
Speaker 4: more of myself this week with my guy Kerner talking

1212
01:02:36,880 --> 01:02:40,480
Speaker 4: fantasy dfs all that stuff on the Fantasy Flex podcast.

1213
01:02:40,920 --> 01:02:44,040
Speaker 4: Of course, check out the Action Network discord server as

1214
01:02:44,080 --> 01:02:45,840
Speaker 4: well if you want to chat directly.

1215
01:02:46,320 --> 01:02:48,360
Speaker 3: The link will be in the episode description.

1216
01:02:48,760 --> 01:02:51,360
Speaker 4: And you can hear Stuck talking college football over on

1217
01:02:51,440 --> 01:02:55,280
Speaker 4: a Big Bets on Campus podcast Friday Morning. Stuck is

1218
01:02:55,320 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 4: on Twitter formerly Twitter x now at Stuck in two.

1219
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:01,800
Speaker 4: I'm at Chris Raybond grat those same handles on a

1220
01:03:01,800 --> 01:03:07,080
Speaker 4: free award winning Action Network app. Until next time, let's

1221
01:03:07,080 --> 01:03:10,600
Speaker 4: get thish money go rabs CO Patriot.

1222
01:03:17,400 --> 01:03:20,560
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1223
01:03:20,880 --> 01:03:23,480
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1224
01:03:23,680 --> 01:03:26,040
Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1225
01:03:26,160 --> 01:03:26,880
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