1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul swing you, 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Well after the close today, the 8 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: Walt Disney Company scheduled to release its first quarterly earning 9 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 1: since it acquired most of the assets of the twenty 10 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 1: one century Fox Company for over seventy billion dollars. To 11 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: break down those numbers, we've welcome our good friend Porter 12 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:41,559 Speaker 1: bib Porters and managing partner at Media Tech Capital Partners. 13 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 1: He joins us live here on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker 14 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:47,559 Speaker 1: studio Supporter. I think when these numbers come out, one 15 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 1: of the things that people are really going to focus 16 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,959 Speaker 1: on is Bob Biker's plan for transforming this company into 17 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: a streaming company. What's your take on their ability to 18 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 1: do that. Well, they've got the ability, but Bob Bikers 19 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: a little late to the game, so it's going to 20 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: cost him a lot more than it might have if 21 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: he jumped in two or three or four years ago 22 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 1: when he started talking about streaming. But there's no question 23 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: that Disney has the content and the management and the 24 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: capabilities of of making Disney plus and not not to 25 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: exclude ESPN and ESPN plus absolute winners. It's going to 26 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 1: cost them a lot more than I've seen the numbers. 27 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 1: People are talking about hundreds of millions. I think it's 28 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,759 Speaker 1: gonna be if you look at at what what Netflix 29 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 1: is spending now last year, thirteen billion this year probably 30 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: close to fifteen billion for new content. Disney doesn't have 31 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: to do all of that, but they're gonna have to 32 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 1: market the hell out of their services, and it's gonna 33 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 1: be billions of dollars before they start to make profit. 34 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: So that's the big cost is the marketing. It's a 35 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 1: big cost now, But the marketing is the big marketing 36 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 1: because they they've announced that they're going to open up 37 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 1: their entire archive of Disney and Fox. Everything that Fought 38 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 1: and Disney have ever produced in history is going Instead 39 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 1: of holding it back for five to seven years for 40 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:10,079 Speaker 1: each next generation of viewers, they're opening it up now 41 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: on day one and that's going to be a huge 42 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 1: asset if if you're a parent and you have kids, 43 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 1: you you cannot survive if you don't subscribe to Disney Plus. 44 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,360 Speaker 1: So the real the bear case for Disney over the 45 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 1: last several years has just been this court cutting issue 46 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: and the impact that it has on ESPN. Yet, we 47 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 1: just saw Disney sold some of the regional sports networks 48 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 1: to Sinclair for what I think the market thought was 49 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 1: a very low price, half of the estimated value. So 50 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:45,679 Speaker 1: what is your view of sports? And you know, sports programming, 51 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 1: sports rights and all that Sports is propping up cable 52 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 1: right now because so much of live sports is still 53 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:55,799 Speaker 1: on cable and not streaming. But once those rights run 54 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: out and the streamers start to spend money for sports rights, uh, 55 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 1: Cable is going to be in a very vulnerable position, 56 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 1: maybe not even survive more than four or five years. Okay, 57 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 1: So if Cable doesn't survive four or five years, who 58 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,839 Speaker 1: gets destroyed and who gets to win the game? Here? 59 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 1: The big question that that all the content producers are 60 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 1: facing right now when they look at that the opportunities 61 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: and streaming is how are they going to make the 62 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:26,639 Speaker 1: same kind of money they were getting from the cable 63 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: companies who pay them billions of dollars in transmission fees 64 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: for the content that they were giving to the cable distributors. 65 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: They don't get that from anybody when they're streaming their 66 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 1: own content. And the only two revenue streams they have 67 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 1: are subscriptions and advertising. Disney has said initially no advertising 68 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: on Disney plus the sports channels probably are going to 69 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: have to have sponsorship and significant rights payments and advertising 70 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 1: to make a profit, but they're they're going to be Uh, 71 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 1: there's a serious shortfall in revenue generation from streaming versus 72 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 1: cable in the near term. Well, I think you know, 73 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: on the earnings called tonight for the for Disney, they 74 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: can certainly take a well deserved victory lab for Avengers 75 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: any game. I mean, I think over two billion dollars 76 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 1: in global box office. There's a lot of folks out 77 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,559 Speaker 1: there saying it will be come the number one film, 78 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,279 Speaker 1: passing Avatar, which was at two point seven billion dollar 79 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 1: global box office. What how does your view or what 80 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: is your view of the Disney theatrical business over the 81 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 1: next several years, Disney owned over sixty of the box 82 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: office revenues from from eighteen when they add Fox on 83 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: top of it, they've got nearly eight percent of the 84 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 1: box office. They announced yesterday they they release dates theatrically 85 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 1: of all of their blockbusters through seven and they are 86 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 1: going to own the theatrical box office. Right. They pushed 87 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 1: Avatar out a year was gonna be I guess in 88 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 1: one right. Yeah, So for the Avatar fans at least 89 00:04:57,560 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: I know you're diehard Avatar fan, you have to wait 90 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: another year. Okay, thank you very much. And you probably 91 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 1: know that you've seen Endgame about fifteen times, so you've 92 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: added to the real unspoken potential for Disney. Though. Is 93 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 1: China in streaming? Um? It's remarkable that Avengers Endgame generated 94 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty million dollars at the box office 95 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 1: in China, the biggest box office score that any American 96 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 1: film has ever created in China. And there are legal 97 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:31,279 Speaker 1: and regulatory problems, but China is gonna I mean, Disney 98 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 1: is going to solve those uh and partner with ten 99 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 1: Center or uh e. She she the big streaming dominant 100 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 1: factor in China, and that's a market that will generate 101 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 1: billions of dollars of new revenue for Disney. What's Funny 102 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 1: you mentioned China because Lisa and I all day and 103 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,720 Speaker 1: you know, all across the Bloomberg media obviously talking about 104 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:51,600 Speaker 1: the trade talks and the US and China, and one 105 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: of the big parts of those trade talks. It's not 106 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: just you know, soybeans and microchips, it's also movies and TV. 107 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 1: That's right. So what do you expect to happen in 108 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 1: these trade talks as it relates to some of those 109 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 1: restrictions on Western As far as I've been able to discern, Uh, 110 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: creative content is not even on the table in these 111 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: trade talks. And to me this we're going to have 112 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: an agreement because both the President g and President Trump 113 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 1: need a success and need need a deal. But it's 114 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: going to be a sham because they're they're staying way 115 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 1: away from any of the technology transfer issues. They're staying 116 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 1: way away from currency and currency manipulation. UM will buy 117 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: some Chinese products, they will buy billions of dollars worth 118 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: of soy and pork because they have a crisis in 119 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 1: in pork in China right now with with swine disease. 120 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: So uh, everybody wins, but nothing really changes. So just 121 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 1: just to sort of pit Disney versus Netflix, because as 122 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 1: he is going to give some guidance I'm sure from 123 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: their streaming service. Looking at Netflix right now, shares up 124 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 1: about thirty six percent so far year today. Eat, what 125 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 1: will it take for Disney service to really be a 126 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 1: Netflix killer? As you have said in the past, it's 127 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: in my perspective, it's not a Disney is not a 128 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 1: Netflix killer. What is a Netflix killer is the failure 129 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 1: of individuals to bundle Netflix, Disney, maybe two or three 130 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 1: other HBO maybe UH Comcasts, NBC universal streaming service that's 131 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: going to launch this autumn. Uh. My sense is that 132 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 1: people are gonna gonna put five or six of these 133 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: streaming services together. That'll raise the cost to them the 134 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 1: subscription cost of maybe seventy five dollars. It's still almost 135 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: half of what you're paying cable. But if Netflix is 136 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: not a part of that, they're they're gonna lose. And 137 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: the big problem Netflix is facing right now is when 138 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 1: can that company actually make a profit. That is a 139 00:07:57,360 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 1: key question, especially given how much debt they currently have. 140 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: Por Bib thank you so much for being with us 141 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: here in our Bloomberg Actor Brokers Studios. Portabib Managing partner 142 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: for Media Tech Capital Partners talking about all things Disney. Well, 143 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 1: it's not just equity markets that have put in stellar 144 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 1: performance this year. The credit markets have also performed exceptionally well. 145 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:34,319 Speaker 1: And also the FED appears to I guess, remain content 146 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 1: to remain on the sidelines. So to get a sense 147 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: of what that all means for the fixing can market, 148 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 1: we talked to Randy Brown. Randy as a chief investment 149 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 1: officer for sun Life Financial. Randy, thanks so much for 150 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 1: joining us. Just want to get your sense where you 151 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 1: might see value in the corporate bond market today. Um, yeah, 152 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 1: so good morning. Um we see value in the corporate 153 00:08:56,760 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: bond market today really in the private corporate market, its 154 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: public markets, and um really I put that on a 155 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 1: couple of different reasons. One is, at this point in 156 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:11,079 Speaker 1: the cycle, which we think we're sort of late stages 157 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: of the cycle. Everyone loves to ask what inning, we 158 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 1: would say, seventh inning. We just don't know how many 159 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:19,440 Speaker 1: innings in the game anymore, so late late stages in 160 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 1: the cycle. Certainly the runway has been extended. But um, 161 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 1: we're seeing a lot of a lot of corporations that 162 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:30,600 Speaker 1: we believe are a bit over levered in the market 163 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: in the public market. So we've moved a bit to 164 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: the private markets where we're able to pick up spread, 165 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 1: pick up um covenant protection, pick up collateral behind us 166 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 1: UM as opposed to an unsecured credit, and so we've 167 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 1: we've found value there. Okay, So this is actually really 168 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: interesting because, uh, perhaps you give up a little bit 169 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 1: of liquidity, but you get the extra spread and the 170 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:56,439 Speaker 1: extra protection on the covenants. And I'm just wondering how 171 00:09:56,520 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: much access you're starting to see baked into private debt kets. 172 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 1: I'm thinking, for example, Black Rocks CEO Larry Fink said 173 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: yesterday at the n EPC Investment Conference in Boston, UH 174 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 1: that perhaps investors are now overallocating to alternatives, and he 175 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 1: was including private debt in that. What's your take on it, um, 176 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 1: So I do agree with Larry, but we're talking about 177 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 1: two different parts in the market. So I believe what 178 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: Larry is speaking to UH in private debt is typically 179 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 1: in the US, most investors when they speak a private 180 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,959 Speaker 1: debt are talking about middle market loans, and so there 181 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 1: has been a huge amount of capital raised in that sector. UM. 182 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 1: So those look more like the syndicated loan market, just 183 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: in private space where we've been focusing as a life 184 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:45,839 Speaker 1: insurance company with UM capital, UM capital constraints, etcetera. We 185 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 1: look at the at the investment grade part of the 186 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 1: private debt market and there that's really typically the purview 187 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:57,599 Speaker 1: of the life insurance companies. A little bit in the 188 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: in pension funds, that is not a particularly overcrowded space. 189 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 1: It's really the middle market space. I believe that Larry 190 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:07,439 Speaker 1: refers to so many give us a sense of kind 191 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 1: of you know, what are the sectors that you are 192 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 1: attracted to the private equity or the private bond market, 193 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 1: other sectors or types of issuers that are most attracted 194 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 1: to that market. UM, It's really a broad swath. I 195 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,200 Speaker 1: think what I'd say is is UM it's a very 196 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 1: diverse market. Anything from some corporates, some of the smaller 197 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,720 Speaker 1: UM corporates that don't feel that they want to take 198 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: the UM operational overhead to go to the public market UM, 199 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: but they think that they can access capital, which they 200 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 1: can from from private sources with much less reporting burden. 201 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: So you see it there. You've seen some sort of 202 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:49,559 Speaker 1: innovative structures where people need as an issuer, we need 203 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: flexibility so flexibility in terms of terms, in terms of 204 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 1: um of tenor um those sorts of things. So the 205 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: private market gives the issuer a lot more flexibility as 206 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 1: opposed to typically issuing five years, seven year, ten year, 207 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: thirty year debt. Randy, I assume that you it's in life, 208 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:15,080 Speaker 1: You're not alone among insurers and going into this area. Correct, 209 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 1: that's correct. Yeah, I've heard of this is sort of 210 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: being an increasingly popular area over the past bunch of years, 211 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 1: and I'm just wondering, what's the risk on the liquidity 212 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 1: side if there was some sort of need to either 213 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: read you your portfolio or for whatever reasons, sell these bonds, 214 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: how much of an audience would there be for them? Um? Well, 215 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 1: I I'd separate a good question, and it's one certainly 216 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 1: I get internally and externally quite a bit. So I 217 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: would say, first of all, we um we run a 218 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 1: lot of liquidity stress tests, so we're not going into 219 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 1: this sector with the idea that in a in a 220 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,199 Speaker 1: crisis we're going to need to sell it, because it 221 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 1: really is pretty much a buy and whole type of product. 222 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 1: That being said, in two thousand and eight, we as 223 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:02,680 Speaker 1: a company were able to sell quite a bit um, 224 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:08,560 Speaker 1: particularly in the one part of the market. Um, you know, 225 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: the beauty of of of the life insurance model versus 226 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: let's say the bank model is it's very hard to 227 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 1: have a run quote run on the bank on a 228 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 1: life insurance company. So we are we in pension funds 229 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 1: really can take a very long perspective on our investments 230 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: because we don't have those, um, those heightened liquidity and 231 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 1: leverage constraints the banks have. So really just real quick here, 232 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: how much have you increased your allocation to the private 233 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: debt market. We've increased it about three percent of our 234 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 1: assets over the last several years. It doesn't sound like 235 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,280 Speaker 1: a big move, but actually for for a life crow, 236 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:51,200 Speaker 1: that's actually a fairly big move from from zero percent allocation. No, no, 237 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: we we've been in these markets for you know, over 238 00:13:53,960 --> 00:14:00,040 Speaker 1: fifty years, so we're currently at about asset allocation in 239 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 1: in just a private death space. Randy Brown, thank you 240 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: so much for taking the time. Really interesting area and 241 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 1: one that I hope we have you back to talk about. 242 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:10,199 Speaker 1: Randy Brown, Chief Investment Officer of sun Life and head 243 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: of Investments for sun Life Investment Management. Well, I ran 244 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 1: it is threatening to abandon limits on uranium enrichment unless 245 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 1: Europe throws it an economic lifeline within sixty days, basically 246 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: putting in peril potentially the Nuclear Accord joining US now 247 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: to talk about this aerial coh and senior fellow at 248 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 1: the Atlantic Council in Washington, D c Ariel. How scary 249 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: is this? I mean, are we looking at what is 250 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:59,480 Speaker 1: ultimately a likely devolution of this nuclear treaty? Indeed, and 251 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 1: I am wondering if this is walking into a mind 252 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 1: filled without a map. Um, we have not just Iran 253 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 1: being extremely aggressive. Uh. The more we push the Mulla regime, UH, 254 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 1: the nasty they become. They funded uh the extremists in 255 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 1: the Daza strip and organization called Palestine Islamic Jihad to 256 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 1: shoot rockets in Israel. And then CAMAS, which also received 257 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 1: support from Iran in the past and possibly is still 258 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 1: receiving it. Uh. They chimed in shooting over six hundred 259 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 1: rockets into Israel. Uh. They fund the fully owned subsidiary 260 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 1: in Lebanon, Colchizbala, which our government, the US government said 261 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: that it is um the prime the the a league 262 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 1: of terrorists organizations around the world, and UH, unfortunately for US, UH, 263 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 1: the Europeans, the Russians, and the Chinese are on the 264 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 1: Iranians side and not on the U S side, And UH, 265 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: walking into something like that without allies is really a 266 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 1: questionable proposition. I would say so, Ariel, the Trump administration 267 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: walked away from this nuclear agreement about a year ago, 268 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: So from you know, given that perspective, how would you 269 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 1: characterize the US position towards Iran? Now? Uh, the Trump administration, 270 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 1: correctly in my opinion, disliked and President Trump disliked the 271 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: deal negotiated by the Obama administration. It UH put at 272 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: the clock kicking in terms of Iran being capable of 273 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 1: developing nuclear weapons and still developing ballistic missiles UM as 274 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: we speak. But at the same time, I think the 275 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:53,560 Speaker 1: Trump administration wanted to impose sanctions on Iran and bring 276 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: that regime under pressure from its own people. Whether it's 277 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: happening or not, I think is happening somewhat. But at 278 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 1: the same time, we're targeting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Core, 279 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 1: and that is a nasty organization. Think about a combination 280 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:16,960 Speaker 1: of Buffon Assas and KGB. It has a military component 281 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 1: and a security police component, and we declared these guy's terrorists. 282 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 1: They declared us our troops in the Middle East terrorists. 283 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:27,439 Speaker 1: They said, we're going to they're going to target our 284 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 1: troops in Iraq and elsewhere. Um Pompeo went to Iraq unannounced. 285 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 1: So the things are escalating pretty fast. And again I 286 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: am not sure whether this is the trump um strategy 287 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 1: of making a lot of noise and scaring the opponent. 288 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 1: We're trying to do it with the Chinese now with 289 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:51,880 Speaker 1: a threat of tariffs on Friday or uh this will 290 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 1: go straight to a military clash and if it happens, 291 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:59,200 Speaker 1: the Iranians can mind can block the straight off for 292 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:04,439 Speaker 1: moose through which of exported oil in the world is flowing, right, 293 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,160 Speaker 1: and that will bring the oil prices way a bob 294 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty into range for a short time, but 295 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: it will be a huge, huge spike in the oil price, 296 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 1: and that may or may not. Going back to Ran 297 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 1: and this idea where they're basically saying that Europe needs 298 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 1: to send it to provide it through an economic lifeline 299 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:32,159 Speaker 1: within sixty days, This specific request actually is something that 300 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: is written into the agreement, right, I mean, it's not 301 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 1: that outrageous for you're on to be asking for this 302 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 1: because the European region has promised to continue trading and 303 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 1: engaging with with Iran if it did adhere to this agreement. 304 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 1: So how does this how does this work out? Given 305 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 1: Europe's relationship with the US not wanting to anchor them 306 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 1: as well as frankly their promise under this pact. Indeed, UH, 307 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:03,159 Speaker 1: the chief of European the EU foreign Policy, we're not 308 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 1: talking specific countries, We're talking Brussels. The EU, the chief 309 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: of their foreign policy as a woman, culled Frederica Margarini. 310 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 1: She was a former Italian foreign minister and she is 311 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 1: not exactly a friend of the United States. UH. Nor 312 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: by the way, in this position as Germany, Germany wants 313 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:24,400 Speaker 1: to continue to trade with Iran. There are a lot 314 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 1: of interest for the German companies, and what the Europeans 315 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:31,440 Speaker 1: did was to set up this separate facility to trade 316 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:36,440 Speaker 1: with Iran. UH. The Iranians, in the meantime are reportedly 317 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:43,439 Speaker 1: setting up new oil prospecting licenses that will favor the Europeans. 318 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: Those The Iranians are playing the oldest game in the book. 319 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 1: They're trying to split the adversaries, split the EU from 320 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 1: the United States, and the EU is planning right into 321 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: the Iranian sands. Hary o' cohen, thank you so much. Ariels, 322 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 1: a senior fellow the Atlantic Council, joining us on the 323 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 1: phone from Washington, d C. As I mentioned earlier, IBM 324 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 1: is in the market as we speak, with a twenty 325 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 1: billion dollar corporate bond deal that marks, uh, you know, 326 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 1: a very busy We've got Bristol Myers earlier this week, 327 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: so shaping up to be a very busy week in 328 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 1: the corporate bond new issue market. To dive a little 329 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: bit deeper into what's going on in that market, we 330 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,400 Speaker 1: turned to Molly Smith. Molly's a corporate finance reporter for 331 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. She joins us on the phone. Molly, thanks 332 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. So just give us the 333 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 1: details here on this IBM deal. Thanks Ball. So, yeah, 334 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 1: this was pretty well forecast. We all knew that UM 335 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 1: IBM was going to be in the cards sometime this week, 336 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 1: and they were really UM proactive in reaching out to 337 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: make calls to investors yesterday while Bristol Myers was unfolding. 338 00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,880 Speaker 1: UM it's been a very busy week and we've got 339 00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 1: an other busy one coming up next week with a 340 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 1: lot of other forecast M n A deals, So a 341 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 1: lot of supplot coming into the market right now, But 342 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 1: these are all M and A transactions that investors have 343 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 1: been waiting for and preparing their portfolios for to participate. 344 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 1: One thing that's sort of interesting, Molly, is that you've 345 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,400 Speaker 1: seen a little bit of tumult in US equity markets, 346 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 1: and you've seen spreads widen a little bit, and I 347 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 1: want to emphasize little here, uh in the corporate debt markets. 348 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 1: So it's interesting to see these huge deals coming and 349 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 1: they're getting done. How well are they getting done? What's 350 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 1: the pricing like, well, Bristol Paris yesterday? Um, extremely well. 351 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 1: And again it really speaks to that these are not 352 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 1: surprises these deals coming forward. When you're going to come 353 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 1: forward with a top ten largest deal of all time 354 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: in like the Neighborhood of twenty billion dollars, you're going 355 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,679 Speaker 1: to make sure that the demand is there on the 356 00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 1: investor base, so no one is being caught off guard. 357 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 1: Investors have been preparing to participate in these deals. We 358 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 1: saw IBM bon selling off yesterday, the people preparing to 359 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: get more exposure or to that name today. Um and yeah. 360 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 1: It is interesting when you see a little bit of 361 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 1: that disconnects that equities have been plumping. Volatility is high, 362 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,159 Speaker 1: but when you have deals that people know are coming, 363 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 1: and it's a bit of a you know, seasonality factor 364 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 1: to that. We know that May is typically a heavier 365 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: month heading into the summer months really starts to quiet down. 366 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: So if you have these kinds of deals that you 367 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 1: need to get done, this is the time to go forward. 368 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: Although it is interesting, you know, yes, there have these 369 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,680 Speaker 1: have been well telegraphed deals. These do not come as 370 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 1: a surprise. The demand has been there, but the question 371 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 1: is still at what price And the fact that people 372 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 1: are willing to price these deals a very attractive terms 373 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 1: still for the issue or is despite some of the uncertainty, 374 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:43,160 Speaker 1: really sort of underscores the unbelievable demand for this debt 375 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,400 Speaker 1: that we have seen just persistently this year and frankly 376 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:50,520 Speaker 1: throughout the past decade. You know, it has been incredible. 377 00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:52,679 Speaker 1: And even looking at the Bristol deal yesterday, I mean, 378 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 1: the book ended up being what I mean more than 379 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 1: it was three times oversubscribed in that neighborhood, so you 380 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 1: could have even seen like the deal go bigger understandably 381 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 1: and even just looking at how much of a bridge 382 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 1: loan they had taken out that maybe they could have 383 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: borrowed more, but UM speaking to a bit of the 384 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 1: discipline that borrowers have had to and like staying within 385 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: their lane and not trying to push the leverage too high, 386 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,800 Speaker 1: because obviously that's been a concerned in our market as well, 387 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 1: especially with those single A names pursuing M and A 388 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 1: and possibly going down to triple B, which it looks 389 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 1: like so far Bristol Myers is dick clear of and 390 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,199 Speaker 1: IBM will probably as well. So'm only what are the 391 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 1: use of proceeds by and large for some of these 392 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,160 Speaker 1: big monster deals? Are these to refinance existing debt? Are 393 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 1: these for the fund M and A to fund capital spendaitures? 394 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 1: What's kind of been the use of proceeds? This is 395 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 1: a largely M and A so bristoally yesterday within the 396 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 1: market to help fund to the takeover of Celgene there 397 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 1: was a seventy four billion dollar transaction, the largest merger 398 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 1: and pharmaceutical history. UM I believe some of the proceeds 399 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,399 Speaker 1: as well could be earbarnes for general corporate purposes and 400 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,680 Speaker 1: UM and also Bristol is pursuing them a five billion 401 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 1: dollars share repurchase program them, so some of the proceeds 402 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 1: may be used for that as well. IBM today this 403 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: is us for their redhead trent Um takeover. That's the 404 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,640 Speaker 1: largest one that IBM has done in its history, and 405 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 1: we've got next week coming up. T mobile Um likely 406 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,640 Speaker 1: will be moving forward Um with its bond sales help 407 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 1: fund the Sprint acquisition, as well as on Fidelity National 408 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 1: and World Pay. Molly Smith, thank you so much for 409 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:24,919 Speaker 1: being with us. Molly Smith is a corporate finance reporter 410 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News, talking about the bon bonanza currently going 411 00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,239 Speaker 1: on in the investment grade space and frankly we are 412 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 1: seeing at the high old debts space as well, with 413 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,679 Speaker 1: the busiest day in about three months recently at people 414 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 1: basically saying now is the time we've had these deals 415 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 1: in the works, let's unrule them. Thanks for listening to 416 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe and 417 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,640 Speaker 1: listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform 418 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 1: you prefer. Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 419 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 1: I'm Lisa Bramwoy. It's I'm on Twitter at Lisa Bramwoy 420 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 1: its one before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 421 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:03,040 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio thakak