WEBVTT - When Will We Get Back to Normal?  Here's a Timeline by Seasons

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<v Speaker 1>It's Monday, March one. I'm Oscar Ramiras from the Daily

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<v Speaker 1>Dive podcast in Los Angeles, and this is reopening America.

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<v Speaker 1>Pandemic numbers have been trending in the right direction, and

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine rollout has been ramping up. But when can

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<v Speaker 1>we all get back to normal? The next few months

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<v Speaker 1>will look just as they have been, but the summer

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<v Speaker 1>could be the closest to normal that we have seen

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<v Speaker 1>in a long time. Joe Pinsker, staff writer at The

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<v Speaker 1>Atlantic previews with the next few seasons might look like

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<v Speaker 1>on a road back to pre pandemic normalcy. Thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>joining us, Joe, Yeah, thanks so much for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>We've been going through this pandemic for a long time now.

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<v Speaker 1>Everybody is ready for things to get back to normal. Unfortunately,

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<v Speaker 1>those answers are not always very clear. You know, what

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<v Speaker 1>is normal now after this We can point out a

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<v Speaker 1>timeline and hope for the best that it will follow

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<v Speaker 1>that way. But you know, there's a lot of variables

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<v Speaker 1>that come into play. Joe, you spoke to a few experts.

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<v Speaker 1>You kind of sketched out a timeline, reading some of

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<v Speaker 1>the tea leaves, seeing what life will be like over

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<v Speaker 1>the next year or so and beyond that, and you

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<v Speaker 1>broke things up by seasons, which I loved how you

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<v Speaker 1>did that. So let's talk about the likely timeline for

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<v Speaker 1>how things will return to normal, and let's start off

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<v Speaker 1>with the next season that we're ready to go through,

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<v Speaker 1>about March to May. Spring one. What are we looking at? So,

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<v Speaker 1>I think spring looks a lot like what people have

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<v Speaker 1>been doing for the past year. Of course, people have

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<v Speaker 1>been doing all sorts of different things. Some people have

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<v Speaker 1>been going to work, some people have been working from home,

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<v Speaker 1>some people have been dining out, some people have been

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<v Speaker 1>eating in every night. But whatever it is that people

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<v Speaker 1>have been doing, I think we can expect them to

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<v Speaker 1>have to do more of it for the next couple

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<v Speaker 1>of months. The big question mark that will determine a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of how cautious people will need to be in

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<v Speaker 1>these coming months is what happens with the variants that

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<v Speaker 1>we've heard so much about. We don't really know how

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<v Speaker 1>much damage they'll do, but they could end up circulating

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<v Speaker 1>quite a bit and doing a lot of damage. They

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<v Speaker 1>could also end up not playing much of a factor.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's kind of the thing that we're looking out

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<v Speaker 1>for on the scale of the next couple of months.

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<v Speaker 1>But in terms of daily life, daily life looks pretty

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<v Speaker 1>similar to what it's been. The way you put it,

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<v Speaker 1>I think was really put well cautious. We'll still have

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<v Speaker 1>to be in this, in this mode of mask wearing,

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<v Speaker 1>social distancing, doing all the same things we've been doing.

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<v Speaker 1>As you mentioned, it's different for a lot of people,

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<v Speaker 1>but that's where we're at right now. And beyond that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, as the vaccines start to roll out more

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<v Speaker 1>to more Americans, people see other people getting the vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>so that hesitancy will drop also. Summer one, what are

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<v Speaker 1>we looking at? I have to say I've done a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of interviews over the course of this pandemic with

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<v Speaker 1>experts wondering what they're thinking about, and I came away

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<v Speaker 1>from these so much more optimistic and even a bit surprised.

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<v Speaker 1>After these interviews that I did summer, they were saying,

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<v Speaker 1>really should be great. They widely expect things to just

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<v Speaker 1>look so much better in a lot of different dimensions.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of the things that we've not been able

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<v Speaker 1>to do, like have friends and family over indoors, or

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<v Speaker 1>dying inside restaurants safely, all these things that a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people have hesitated to do should become much much safer,

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<v Speaker 1>and that includes the whole range of things like going

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<v Speaker 1>into work and having people be in person at schools.

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<v Speaker 1>Whether all of those things will phase in it once,

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<v Speaker 1>it's probably not going to happen, but summer just should

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<v Speaker 1>look a lot better in a lot of ways. In

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<v Speaker 1>a way that for me is somebody who's been reporting

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<v Speaker 1>on this stuff for a year now, it just is

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<v Speaker 1>so much more encouraging than it has been. And you

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<v Speaker 1>can remember what it was like last summer. People were

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<v Speaker 1>already getting that first inkling of COVID fatigue. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>the summer months were here was hot outside, you can

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it was safer to be outside, and people

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<v Speaker 1>went out to the beaches. They went out and started

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<v Speaker 1>doing a lot more stuff. In part that's why we

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<v Speaker 1>saw a couple of rises and cases and all. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I can definitely expect people to be in that mode again.

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<v Speaker 1>Things of concerns still, you know, the timing for vaccinations

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<v Speaker 1>for kids, you know, will that be in place by

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<v Speaker 1>that time? And you also made mention, you know it

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<v Speaker 1>won't be a full comeback. Maybe indoor concerts, full attendance

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<v Speaker 1>at sporting events might not be ready. Just yet then

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<v Speaker 1>the expectation of the people I talked to is that

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<v Speaker 1>summer looks quite a bit more like the summer of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty nineteen than the summer of It won't be entirely

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<v Speaker 1>summer of As you said, concerts probably won't be back packed,

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<v Speaker 1>sports stadiums probably won't be back. Also, international travel probably

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<v Speaker 1>won't be back There are important limitations, but as far

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<v Speaker 1>as how the summer should compare to what we've been

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<v Speaker 1>through so far, it really should be a tremendous departure

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<v Speaker 1>fall of one and winter, you know, the beginning of

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<v Speaker 1>the year. What are we looking at there? Because the

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<v Speaker 1>concern also is, you know, with the colder months, we

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<v Speaker 1>see uh an increase in flu cases. Obviously other respiratory things,

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<v Speaker 1>COVID will be among them. You know, we'll really see

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<v Speaker 1>kind of what these variants that we've been really worried about,

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<v Speaker 1>how much more transmissible they'll be when it gets colder again.

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<v Speaker 1>This is one of the things that I think people

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<v Speaker 1>might struggle to wrap their minds around. I certainly did

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<v Speaker 1>as I thought about it. There is a chance that

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<v Speaker 1>we have a fantastic summer as I've just described, and

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<v Speaker 1>at the same time fall and winter and the colder

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<v Speaker 1>months end up being not so great. Experts that I

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<v Speaker 1>spoke with generally expect there to be some sort of

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<v Speaker 1>uptick in cases and deaths in the coulder months. The

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<v Speaker 1>big question is how much that would be. There's a

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<v Speaker 1>chance that it really is quite small, in which case

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<v Speaker 1>we get to start reintroducing things like concerts and other

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<v Speaker 1>things that would represent sort of full quote unquote normalcy.

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<v Speaker 1>There's also a chance, as you noted, that the variants

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<v Speaker 1>end up doing something weird and unexpected. That seems like

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<v Speaker 1>a less likely possibility. But I would say in general

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<v Speaker 1>that even if summer is excellent, there is this sort

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<v Speaker 1>of chance that the fall and winter are not so

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<v Speaker 1>great and represent a backslide. And then finally spring summer

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<v Speaker 1>two so really a whole other year out will be

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<v Speaker 1>kind of back to that quote unquote normal. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>what is going to be normal after the pandemic. It's

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<v Speaker 1>still yet to be seen, but that's when will be

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<v Speaker 1>a lot looser with our mask wearing and our social distancing,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, will be in the habit now of being

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<v Speaker 1>with family and friends again. So that's kind of the

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<v Speaker 1>timeline for this to really resolve itself. We hope. Yeah, exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>I think this is where, if we're making predictions, this

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<v Speaker 1>is where we start to use the words maybe you're

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<v Speaker 1>probably a lot less the spring and summer of two.

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<v Speaker 1>Once it starts getting warm next year, I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>when people widely expect life to be very, very very

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<v Speaker 1>similar to what it used to be, just in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of what we're able to do. Obviously the world will

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<v Speaker 1>be so much different in so many other ways, but

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<v Speaker 1>it definitely looks very good at that point. I'm so hopeful.

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<v Speaker 1>I saw the article that I was like, oh, right away,

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<v Speaker 1>I gotta I have to read this because this is

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<v Speaker 1>what everybody wants to know. When is it going to

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<v Speaker 1>go back to normal? I'm hopeful that this timeline would work,

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<v Speaker 1>hopefully even a little quicker than that. But these are

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<v Speaker 1>all the things we have to work towards and get

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<v Speaker 1>those vaccines, continue the mask wearing, social distancing so we

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<v Speaker 1>can get to that point. It's so important right now.

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<v Speaker 1>But Joe Pinsker, staff writer at The Atlantic, thank you

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<v Speaker 1>very much for joining us. Yeah, thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm right there hoping with you too. I'm oscar a

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<v Speaker 1>mirrors and this is been reopening America. Don't forget the

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<v Speaker 1>effort today's big news stories. You can check me out

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<v Speaker 1>on the Daily Dive podcast every Monday through Friday, so

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