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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Moment, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am joined as always by my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my compadre professional better, Simon Hunters. Simon. Today, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: have a guest come on, who I will introduce in

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Speaker 1: a moment, and we're gonna go deep on what might

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Speaker 1: be our producer, Matt Mitchell's favorite division in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: There's no might, definitely is yeah exactly Today's guest a

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Speaker 1: senior writer for The Athletic with a decades long journalism

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Speaker 1: resume that includes stints at ESPN, Palm Springs Post, the

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Speaker 1: Buffalo News. The latter has made him one of the

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Speaker 1: most connected, pragmatic, and well respected voices not only in

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Speaker 1: Western New York sports media, but across the entire a

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Speaker 1: f C East, the host of t g a F

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Speaker 1: the Tim Graham and Friends Podcast. Welcome to the show,

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Speaker 1: Tim Brat, Thanks for having me, guys, it's been a

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Speaker 1: long time coming. Listen to me, Tim Matt Mitchell, our producer,

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Speaker 1: is from the Paris of Western New York Rochester, which

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Speaker 1: makes him a lifelong Buffalo Bills fan, which means that

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Speaker 1: he has never been more set up for heartbreak in

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Speaker 1: his entire life. It'll be worse this year when the

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Speaker 1: Bills don't win the Super Bowl than the four straight

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Speaker 1: years in the nineties when they went and didn't win.

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Speaker 1: With multiple Hall of Famers, they've spent two decades as

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Speaker 1: one of the most relevant teams in the NFL, one

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Speaker 1: of the most irrelevant franchises in sports. Now they're Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl faives. They've got the m v P faive, They've

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Speaker 1: got the guy that everyone says it's the best quarterback

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. Tell me about the conversation that is

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Speaker 1: happening in Buffalo right now. Everybody's excited but apprehensive. The

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Speaker 1: way that you just summed it up, for Matt is

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Speaker 1: is what the average Western New York sports fan is feeling.

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Speaker 1: It is a great team. They are the Super Bowl favorites,

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Speaker 1: or I should say that the favorites to win the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl um with the player who is the favorite

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Speaker 1: to be the m v P. He can do it all,

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Speaker 1: and he captures your imagination when you watch him play.

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Speaker 1: Last season and really two seasons ago, but especially last season,

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Speaker 1: he ironed out those performances that made you wonder if

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Speaker 1: he was the real deal. He has earned the distinction

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Speaker 1: of being the favorite to be the NFL m v

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Speaker 1: P this year, But disappointment is in the d NA here.

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Speaker 1: And I'm a native cleveland Er myself, so I can

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Speaker 1: speak this language. You are waiting for something to happen

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Speaker 1: at all times, whether it's going to be COVID outbreak

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Speaker 1: last year was something that I think everybody was worried about,

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Speaker 1: especially with the vocal group of anti vaxers that the

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Speaker 1: Bills had on their poster. There were Bills fans that

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Speaker 1: were saying, oh, jeez, this will be our year, and

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Speaker 1: then we'll get to the playoffs and there goes Cold

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Speaker 1: Beasley and four or five others that are going to

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Speaker 1: be lost for for the championship game. So that was

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Speaker 1: hanging over their head all year. You have a quarterback

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Speaker 1: who runs the ball a lot and isn't afraid to

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Speaker 1: take a shot, so you got that in the backs

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Speaker 1: of the minds of Bills fans at all times. Uh,

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Speaker 1: something's gonna happen. Godzilla is going to rise out of

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Speaker 1: Lake Erie and destroy, you know, half the city. Whatever

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Speaker 1: it is, you can concoct bills ends have probably thought

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Speaker 1: of it, but let's face it, and this is what

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Speaker 1: I keep telling people. So I have one guy in particular,

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Speaker 1: this local bar that I go to. It called Almost

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Speaker 1: and uh, it's a great wing joint. After the kitchen

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Speaker 1: closes at eleven o'clock, there's a guy Malcolm's his name,

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Speaker 1: and he always comes out and he leans into me

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Speaker 1: like I'm gonna tell him a secret, you know. And

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Speaker 1: this happens, you know, two or three times a week,

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Speaker 1: and he says, Tim, Tim, tell me, are the Bill

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Speaker 1: is going to do it this year? And again I

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Speaker 1: tell him every I'm like, I think they're the best

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Speaker 1: team in the NFL. But Malcolm, you have to understand

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Speaker 1: that gives him about an eight percent chance of winning

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. And he's devastated every time I tell him.

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Speaker 1: And then three days later, Uh, he comes out and

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Speaker 1: he does it again. But he feels like I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: tell him something different each time. But that's kind of

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Speaker 1: the deal here around Western New York. They're they're stacked.

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Speaker 1: There was some significant changes, losing their offensive coordinator briant

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Speaker 1: Able to the New York Giants, of course, and Ken

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Speaker 1: Dorsey's a first time play caller at any level. But

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Speaker 1: the team is is pretty much intact from last year.

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Speaker 1: Very few changes is the everything from the general manager

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Speaker 1: and a vast majority of that front office down to

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Speaker 1: a vast majority of the coaching staff at all the

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Speaker 1: key positions. Uh, they have been together and playing at

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Speaker 1: a very high level. You're really not worrying too much

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Speaker 1: about guys who are aging out. Yes, you do have

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Speaker 1: somebody like Von Miller or a Micah Hyde to Jordan player.

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Speaker 1: Those are the those are the graybeards on defense. And

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Speaker 1: yet they were coming off elite season, So there's really

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Speaker 1: no there's not that guy on the roster that you're like, oh, man,

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Speaker 1: I hope you can hold it together just for a

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Speaker 1: couple more years. No, that even their older guys are

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Speaker 1: in seemed to be in their prime. So yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: it's exciting, but around here you're holding your breath. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's gotta be a good just a good feeling for

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Speaker 1: Bills fans knowing that you know they have they have

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Speaker 1: something they've had in a long time, a guy who

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Speaker 1: is legit top three at the QB position, which you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm an Eagles fan. I haven't had that since Donovan. Like,

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Speaker 1: it's just you just want that feeling of going to

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Speaker 1: a season, you just have hope because you have that quarterback. Again.

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Speaker 1: We can talk about last year where they shut themselves

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Speaker 1: on the foot, right they lost that Jaguars game that

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Speaker 1: decided them having home field advantage. If they would have

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Speaker 1: won that game, the Chiefs would have been coming to,

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Speaker 1: you know, Buffalo. So it's just talking about a Bill's

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Speaker 1: team that, like Chad just said, they're the best team

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Speaker 1: in football. Josh Allen, he's the biggest superstar. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: It's a touchy subject up on Buffalo, but it reminds

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Speaker 1: me of object Ran for that two thousand yards. He

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Speaker 1: was literally a guy in Buffalo right that he was

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Speaker 1: the most revered player. Is that the same thing right now,

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen? Is it? Like, is there anyone even close

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Speaker 1: to Josh Allen's level of fame right now in Western

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Speaker 1: New York? No, not nearly. Maybe you want to go

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Speaker 1: back to the Super Bowl years. You want to flip

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Speaker 1: over to the hockey side, Dominic Hashik. But even then,

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Speaker 1: hockey is still in niche sport and obviously hugely embraced

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Speaker 1: here in this area. Hockey is, but it doesn't compete

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Speaker 1: with what the NFL does in terms of breaking through

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Speaker 1: and making Buffalo and Buffalo Ians feel relevant on the

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Speaker 1: national stage. And you mentioned o J. And of course

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Speaker 1: you know that's a complicated legacy. But o J's teams

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Speaker 1: were irrelevant. O J went to the playoffs. I think

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Speaker 1: once the team was built really to not make the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: And that's something I've actually had, uh. I've been able

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Speaker 1: to interview o J. Simpson a couple of times over

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Speaker 1: the years, and one of the things that Ralph Wilson,

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Speaker 1: the team's founder, had told him was, o J, people

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Speaker 1: come to see you play. If we don't make the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: I only have to pay you. If we make the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: I have to pay everybody. So that was kind of

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Speaker 1: built in that we don't necessarily want to be a

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Speaker 1: great football team. We just want to fill the stadium.

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen, though, is the expectation is super Bowl now

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Speaker 1: at this point, maybe not necessarily a championship, but getting

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Speaker 1: there that's the next step that they haven't achieved yet.

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Speaker 1: They have played in an f C Championship game, although

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Speaker 1: a lot of people thought two years ago that was

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a playing over their heads, but

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Speaker 1: heading into last season, of course that was the expectation.

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Speaker 1: And then this year again they're the Super Bowl favorites,

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Speaker 1: which which I've mentioned about eighty gazillion times already. But

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen is getting that big and I think we

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Speaker 1: can look that he's scraping that. He's the only player

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Speaker 1: who hadn't won multiple m v P Awards who played

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Speaker 1: in that um Made for TV Golf event with Tom Brady,

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers. I mean, he seems like

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Speaker 1: he'd be the type of guy that, if John Madden

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Speaker 1: hadn't died last year, is on the cover of Madden

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Speaker 1: this year. I mean, he's hot, he's hit like he

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Speaker 1: is it. The Jersey sales outside of Western New York

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Speaker 1: are are crazy for Josh Allen, and that's because of

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Speaker 1: the style that he plays. He looks like he's having

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Speaker 1: fun at all times out there. Uh. He he breaks

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Speaker 1: the rules of the quarterback position. He trucks people, he'll

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Speaker 1: jump over people. He's fun that's I think hard for

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Speaker 1: Bills fans to imagine. Sometimes, Man, we got one of

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Speaker 1: those guys. Not only do we have one of them,

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Speaker 1: we may have the one. It shouldn't be overlooked or

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Speaker 1: taken for granted. And believe me, around here it isn't

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Speaker 1: so the a f C East this year the Bills

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Speaker 1: minus six d made the playoffs. What are they to

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Speaker 1: win the division? Right now? And it's to twenty to

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Speaker 1: make that to win the division. It's a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a topsy turvy division. This year the Miami Dolphins

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Speaker 1: at about plus one forty two to win the division

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Speaker 1: and then the Patriots at plus one sixty. So you've

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Speaker 1: covered the Bills, You've covered the Dolphins. When you look

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Speaker 1: at this lineup, covered them all. I covered the a

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Speaker 1: f C East for free SPS. I've lived in Boston,

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Speaker 1: I've lived in Fort Lauderdale, and I've lived in Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: So how topsy turvy is this? And strange is it

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Speaker 1: for you after twentysomething years of Patriots dominance? But more importantly,

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Speaker 1: when you look at this, do you see the Dolphins

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Speaker 1: being able to do anything that could remotely challenge the Bills? Sure?

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to take an awful lot of luck,

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Speaker 1: especially with what's happened, Uh, not just in the past week,

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Speaker 1: but over the past months. You know, there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of uncertainty there. You have to wonder how much damage

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Speaker 1: has been done to that team psyche and individual players

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Speaker 1: on that team and people in the front office to

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Speaker 1: know that they're with an organization that didn't necessarily want

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Speaker 1: them or thought that they could do better. And yes, uh,

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Speaker 1: they'll go out and play every week to the best

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Speaker 1: of their ability, but they're also human beings, and these

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Speaker 1: are the types of things, these toxic things that get

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Speaker 1: in your culture, that that elusive thing that can't be

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Speaker 1: defined of culture that the Bills have in spades, that

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Speaker 1: the Patriots probably still do have, but maybe you don't

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Speaker 1: have the talent to go along with it. Um. But

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins and the Jets certainly still trying to sort through.

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Speaker 1: And I'm not saying that they can't find it or

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Speaker 1: that these are lost franchises, but this is not what

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Speaker 1: it's supposed to look like when you're building um culture

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Speaker 1: over years, and it's something that just doesn't happen overnight.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I think Miami is gonna have to have

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Speaker 1: a lot of things go right and and get maybe lucky,

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Speaker 1: have some uh maybe a little bit of a you know,

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Speaker 1: magic wand you know, catching some breaks that they're out

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Speaker 1: of their control type thing. Um. But but I do

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Speaker 1: like what the Dolphins have done from a talent standpoint.

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Speaker 1: I like the coaching decision. But again, there's just so

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Speaker 1: much in the fabric of that organization that is is

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Speaker 1: really dysfunctional, and I think that that is something that

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Speaker 1: has to be overcome as an organization. I mean, we

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Speaker 1: even see organizations that haven't had as much turmoil, and

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Speaker 1: you've got people who just want to jump ship, you know,

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Speaker 1: like uh and I'm not you know, got players who

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Speaker 1: are demanding trades here and there. The Browns are a

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Speaker 1: bad example because they've been just as dysfunctional. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if we want to get into a

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Speaker 1: competition as to who's been more dysfunctional, but we have

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Speaker 1: you know, Kareem Hunt wants out and people were talking

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Speaker 1: about how long until Myles Garrett wants out? And uh,

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Speaker 1: you know the Bears have guys who want out. You know,

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Speaker 1: you get that all around the the NFL with these teams.

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Speaker 1: But that's how fickle things can be and the Bills

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Speaker 1: have figured that out. They don't necessarily have to worry

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Speaker 1: about it. They have just so much continuity, and of

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Speaker 1: course they have that key position lockdown where you don't

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Speaker 1: have to worry about the Bills flirting with some other

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Speaker 1: quarterback because they aren't quite sure if their guy has it.

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Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, if we don't go out

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Speaker 1: and get somebody else, no, no, we like this guy

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Speaker 1: all along, you know. And you could see that that

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Speaker 1: it's you know, a lot of milk toast, uh, plaudits

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Speaker 1: and things of that nature. So I think that the

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Speaker 1: Bills win the division. However, wasn't Maybe the biggest lock

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Speaker 1: in all of NFL last season was that the Bills

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Speaker 1: were gonna win the A f C East And it

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Speaker 1: came down to the very end because the Patriots found

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Speaker 1: a way to scratch together wins with their rookie quarterback.

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Speaker 1: But if you were to take a look at the

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Speaker 1: betting uh on pretty much any of the futures, the

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Speaker 1: most dominant bets were Bills were gonna win the division. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And I think that the Chiefs, even though they were

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Speaker 1: picked to win the Super Bowl, or at least the

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Speaker 1: bet the public was betting on the Chiefs to win

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. It was a lot closer for them

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Speaker 1: in terms of the a f C West and getting

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Speaker 1: through you know whatever. From a betting standpoint, the Bills

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Speaker 1: were lopsided even I think more so than Tampa Bay

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Speaker 1: to win their division, and they almost didn't. We talked

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Speaker 1: about it last year. The win told was that eleven

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Speaker 1: and a half. That was just too easy of a trap, right,

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Speaker 1: We joked all the time when it was eleven and

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Speaker 1: a half twelve, that's the sports books taking all the

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Speaker 1: money in. We kept telling people that in the Vikings

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Speaker 1: were the two overs. We kept saying, stay away from

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Speaker 1: the books are sitting a line. They keep taking money

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Speaker 1: and they're not moving the number. So the Bills this

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Speaker 1: season their their division definitely improved, but honestly not enough

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Speaker 1: to make me be as confident I was last year.

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Speaker 1: And they're under a bet in the sense that I

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Speaker 1: think this team is a twelve and five team. Like

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Speaker 1: I look at the Bills. I've run through their division,

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Speaker 1: run like simulate their season. It keeps coming back above twelve, right,

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Speaker 1: I keep getting either twelve point four twelve point three

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Speaker 1: wins for them, And I'm looking at the Bills team

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Speaker 1: that I try to explain to people are our job

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Speaker 1: here is to give them the best bet for value wise. Right,

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Speaker 1: So we talked last week about the NFC North just

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Speaker 1: because I think green Bay is gonna win. I don't

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Speaker 1: think you should tie your money up for eight nine months.

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Speaker 1: You know, minus one seventy bet on green Bay, Right,

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Speaker 1: I want to give you a big plus number. Futures

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Speaker 1: are tough from the start, right, You're not only not

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Speaker 1: only do you need to have, you need value. You

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Speaker 1: need really a lot of value. Right. So when I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at the Bills here at minus two minus two twenty,

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Speaker 1: that's a fair price, honestly, Like I I look at

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Speaker 1: this Buils and I still think they're above everyone else

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Speaker 1: in the division. And we're about to get through these

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Speaker 1: other teams. But to me, the Bills are a team

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Speaker 1: where you pair up. Right, If you like green Bay,

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Speaker 1: like I do, pair him together, right, you're taking a

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Speaker 1: minus one seventy and minus two hundred team. Put them together,

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Speaker 1: may be to get a plus number just a little

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Speaker 1: over that minus one ten. So to me, if you're

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Speaker 1: if you're gonna bet these big favorites, I don't hate

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Speaker 1: it because again We've seen the Bills there. They're back

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Speaker 1: to back, they won two straight years now of this division.

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Speaker 1: I don't again, we're gonna tell these other teams. I

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Speaker 1: just don't feel the threats, like, yeah, they lost to

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Speaker 1: row C. He was great. He's given Josh Allen the tools.

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen has a confidence. We know what he has

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Speaker 1: a wide receiver, they drafted a running back form. I

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Speaker 1: just I can't see all the negatives where the Bills

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Speaker 1: were last year. Last year was a natural negative, right

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Speaker 1: they went to the FC Championship game a young team

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Speaker 1: which expected them to have step back because there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a lot of bumps. So coming to this season again,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna tell you Wane to put minus put

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Speaker 1: two hundred on minus two hundred a bet, but I

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Speaker 1: do think there is value in this Bills team to

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Speaker 1: pair with other divisional leaders that yeah, the end of

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Speaker 1: the year, I expect the Bills to win this division. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I've written a lot about Ken Dorsey taking over as

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Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator and the different theory is that are

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Speaker 1: how things are going to change. Usually you hear first

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Speaker 1: time play caller in his life, not even you know

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Speaker 1: the high school um first time play caller. It makes

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Speaker 1: your heart skip a little bit, but you usually hear

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Speaker 1: about that with young coaching staff, new coaching staff, rebuilding organization,

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Speaker 1: taking a shot on a young hot shot play caller

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Speaker 1: type thing I'm thinking of, you know, like Joe Brady

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Speaker 1: and Carolina. Joe Brady now on the Bill's staff, by

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Speaker 1: the way, is their quarterbacks coach. But Ken Dorsey is

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Speaker 1: in a stable organization with the quarterback who can cover

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Speaker 1: up a lot of problems. He played the position and

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Speaker 1: everything in his within his credentials say that he should

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Speaker 1: have no problem with this transition. That's not to say

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Speaker 1: that there won't be you know, um, you know growing

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Speaker 1: pains and learning. You know the pace and what what

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Speaker 1: goes through his mind. It's third and four from the

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Speaker 1: forty six yard line with a minute and a half,

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Speaker 1: you know, whatever the situation is where you could choke.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure he'll go through some periods where he doesn't

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Speaker 1: exactly call the exact play that he wanted to in

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Speaker 1: a specific moment. Maybe he's out of time outs, whatever.

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Speaker 1: But he played the position for so long. He's known

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Speaker 1: for his being overprepared and everything he's ever done, he's

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Speaker 1: known for his intelligence. Um, I think he'd really have

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Speaker 1: the gag to be noticeable. However, however, the Bills do

350
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Speaker 1: start pretty tough. Uh, their schedule. Of course, they're They're

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Speaker 1: in the opener on Thursday night against the Rams out

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Speaker 1: in Los Angeles. They have the Titans, They're at Miami

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Speaker 1: at Baltimore, Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's not isn't as formidable as that

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Speaker 1: they used to sound when you'd hear Pittsburgh, although you know,

355
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Speaker 1: Mike Tomlins still hasn't ever had a losing record. But

356
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Speaker 1: and then Kansas City at Arrowhead, Bye week, Green Bay

357
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Speaker 1: on Sunday Night football. If Ken Dorsey has even a

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Speaker 1: little bit of struggle, that's gonna become a storyline, that's

359
00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:14,280
Speaker 1: gonna be a thing. And uh and even if he

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Speaker 1: gets it straightened out in November and December, you know

361
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Speaker 1: how first impressions are. If Ken Dorsey is known as

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Speaker 1: somebody who maybe doesn't you know, isn't getting it right,

363
00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,280
Speaker 1: isn't firing on all cylinders right away? You know, That's

364
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 1: that's the only thing that would concern me if I

365
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,200
Speaker 1: were a Bills fan. By by all measures, he seems

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00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,359
Speaker 1: like he's got a handle on this. Then he and

367
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,919
Speaker 1: Josh Allen have a great relationship which is paramount. The

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Speaker 1: You mentioned the Patriots. You've covered the Patriots. Their odds

398
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 1: to win the division plus one sixties, so just a

399
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: little bit behind the Dolphins last year nearly scratched out

400
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 1: a division title. Mac Jones This year, new offensive coaches,

401
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 1: not coordinators, as they're not naming them coordinators, but reports

402
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,119
Speaker 1: out of camp that offense looks terrible. They had a

403
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 1: good day to day apparently. I mean, I don't know,

404
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 1: I wasn't there, but apparently so maybe the reporters are

405
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:53,400
Speaker 1: just getting sicker right in the same thing every day

406
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:54,879
Speaker 1: and they just feel like right and that they had

407
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 1: a good one. So when you hear that, when you

408
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 1: see that, as a veteran NFL reporter, how much salt

409
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 1: do you take with the training camp reports of his

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00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 1: performance knowing that it's Belichick and no one expected anything

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00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 1: last year and they found a way to contend. You know,

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00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 1: you guys probably have the numbers or if there, if

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00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 1: there is even such a thing to break down what

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00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: Belichick does to the betting line, whether he inflates it.

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00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 1: But you know, I'm going back to my days when

416
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:28,479
Speaker 1: I when I lived in Vegas and it was you know,

417
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 1: for in the nineties, and it was always a safe

418
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:35,160
Speaker 1: bet to take whoever was was playing the Cowboys because

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00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 1: the Cowboys back then, this is before the you know,

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00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 1: internet gambling. And but in the Vegas books, Notre Dame

421
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,919
Speaker 1: was given too much credit and the Cowboys and forty Niners.

422
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 1: You get a lot of forty Niners action up in

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00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 1: the Reno sports book because they'd come across the border

424
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,719
Speaker 1: and bet and betted up in Reno. But I'm guessing that, uh,

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00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 1: that Belichick gets a little too much credit. He deserves

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00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 1: some of it. I mean, there's a there's a mystique

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00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 1: all about Bill bella check and how he's able to

428
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:04,439
Speaker 1: pull this off. I just don't see it with the

429
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 1: exception of him retooling this team in the image And

430
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 1: believe me, I'm not making a comparison that they can

431
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 1: do the same thing. But going back to the pre alright,

432
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 1: let's say the the immediate Drew bled Zoe aftermath or

433
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 1: towards the end of the Drew bled Zoe era of

434
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 1: we are going to build the most dominant defense we

435
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: can and hope that we can bring this quarterback along

436
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 1: and whenever we need to flip the switch if our

437
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 1: quarterback ever gets too good and we need to, uh,

438
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, start spending the money on offensive

439
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 1: linemen to protect him and weapons and all these other

440
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,880
Speaker 1: things like the Bills are gonna be doing once Josh

441
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 1: Allen's next contract kicks in next year. But for now,

442
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 1: we're gonna spend money on defense, and we are going

443
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 1: to play opponents tight and hope that they break serve,

444
00:23:55,400 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 1: which is the Bill Belichick blueprint. Unless you have two

445
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 1: thousand and seven New England Patriots and Brandy Moss and

446
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 1: West Welker and then you can sling it all over

447
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 1: the field and your defense can you can take the

448
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 1: day off and you can win a shootout. Um, I

449
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 1: don't want to say take a day off, but that

450
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 1: those defenses they had some stars on them, but in

451
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,959
Speaker 1: general weren't great. But it used to be the New

452
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 1: England Patriots. They were fabulous defensive teams and Tom Brady

453
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 1: was the game manager until he evolved into something different.

454
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 1: And I think that they just want Mac Jones to

455
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 1: be a game manager. He doesn't need to be a superstar.

456
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 1: So I think it's a little bit of a fool's there.

457
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 1: And to take a look at the quarterback position in

458
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 1: New England and say, well they can't be any good

459
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 1: because I don't think much of Mac Jones. Well that's

460
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 1: that's not what they're built upon. They don't want or

461
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 1: need Mac Jones to carry him. But where I am.

462
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 1: What I don't get with the Patriots is that the

463
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 1: offense I don't I don't understand it. You're gonna have

464
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,439
Speaker 1: defensive guys calling the offensive plays. I mean, I know

465
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,199
Speaker 1: it's been done. I mean the football is football. At

466
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 1: least there's some belief in that. You know, if Patricia

467
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 1: is gonna be calling the plays or Bill himself, for hell,

468
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,159
Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe they'll let Mac Jones call him.

469
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: Maybe they'll uh, maybe they'll throw up the you know,

470
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 1: the boards like Chip Kelly on the sideline back in

471
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 1: the day with little images on them, and they'll let

472
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: him pick a pick a picture and call it play.

473
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 1: There's just something is a jumbled mess on that offense,

474
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 1: and that's where I think it circles back to some

475
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 1: people just think it's Bill Belichick and he'll figure it out.

476
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,119
Speaker 1: I'm not. I think Bill Belichick is the greatest football

477
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,679
Speaker 1: coach of all time. But I am not one of

478
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 1: those who just all of a sudden is just gonna assume, well, hell,

479
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 1: he proved us wrong again last year, didn't he, Well

480
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,399
Speaker 1: he'll figure it out again this year. They seem to

481
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:42,120
Speaker 1: have gotten worse on offense. Patriots to me, just don't

482
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,959
Speaker 1: don't do anything. They're gonna have to force turnovers and

483
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 1: sees on on mistakes rather than going out there and

484
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 1: winning games. I wouldn't do their over. I think it's

485
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:52,719
Speaker 1: eight and a half New England like you, just like him,

486
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 1: just talked about we don't really know what to think.

487
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 1: As we said here in early August, that's just the

488
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,399
Speaker 1: number I'd wait on. We gotta see some life in

489
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: this offense. The biggest thing I've read so far is

490
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 1: that it's offensive line problems. They literally their offensive line

491
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,880
Speaker 1: is terrible right now for New England. So I'll back

492
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: with Tint said, I wouldn't put any money on this

493
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 1: Patriots team. That's one of the teams. I'll wait and

494
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 1: see um how the president plays out, because to me,

495
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: they're under under talented. Last year they had the fifth

496
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 1: quarterback drafted. He was by far the best quarterback last year.

497
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 1: Like you, are they getting too much credit just because

498
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 1: they're the Patriots? I mean, is is my thinking on that?

499
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 1: I mean that's a guess, But is that a Does

500
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 1: that play into the number or is that baked baked

501
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 1: into the numbers that we're looking at now that no

502
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 1: one cares like maybe they did the first year, but

503
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 1: Tom Brady has gone. Like as much as I want

504
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:38,880
Speaker 1: to give Bill Belichick all the praise in the world,

505
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 1: he had Tom Brady for twenty years. Me and Chad

506
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 1: talked about it last year like we would use numbers

507
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 1: based on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick together. But do

508
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 1: we see the betting public still giving the Patriots credit

509
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 1: or taking taking a risk because they they think the

510
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 1: Patriots that they have this, have the have the secret formula.

511
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 1: No pros think that. I think it's just the betting public.

512
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 1: They probably the third or four biggest fan base in

513
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 1: all of football, so people are gonna bet on them.

514
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,159
Speaker 1: But like pros, no, no one, no one has the

515
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,159
Speaker 1: fear or respect to Bill Belichick to give him an

516
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,200
Speaker 1: extra winner win and a half. It's just more that

517
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 1: he's just a proving guy who's smarter than other coaches,

518
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: like his back against the wall bill to configure things out.

519
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 1: So that's that's probably the respect that we give them.

520
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about the New York Jets here. I mean,

521
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 1: I dare to say it, maybe just because I got

522
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 1: some momentum going here, but maybe I'd like the Jets

523
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 1: more than I do the Patriots. Oh my god, I'm

524
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 1: talking about value. I'm not saying like head to head,

525
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 1: but let's lay I'm taking. I'm taking. I'm anticipating the

526
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: numbers here the Jets right now plus twenty four hundred

527
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 1: to win the a f C Eastking Miami plus four

528
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:50,439
Speaker 1: fifty to win the a f C East New England

529
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 1: plus five hundred Jets plus twenty four hundred to win

530
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 1: the a f C East, and there are win totals

531
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: five and a half. I like the over on that,

532
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 1: so does this. There's something to be said for a

533
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 1: team that's closed the gap. They're they're they're entering uh

534
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 1: the next year in a in a coaching regime and

535
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: an organization that seems now. Of course, they just had

536
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 1: you know, the the Bigay Beckton, The news is bad.

537
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,360
Speaker 1: I love what they did in the draft. Of course

538
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:22,400
Speaker 1: you can't bank on rookies um too much, but they

539
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 1: were able to get the best player at various positions

540
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 1: on the board heading into the draft, with the way

541
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 1: you know, the pass rusher and the cornerback and the receiver.

542
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 1: And again that's not to say that they have it

543
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 1: all figured out, but and that's where when you take

544
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 1: a look at what teams have done, it doesn't happen

545
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 1: in a vacuum. Of course, just because one team has improved,

546
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 1: you say, well they figured it out. Well, all their

547
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: teams are improven to their shifting that the Jets are

548
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 1: going to be more competitive this year. Obviously you can

549
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 1: steal a game, and in a seventeen game season, I

550
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 1: like the over. I should say in five at one

551
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 1: of the most bed overs for the year according to

552
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 1: sports books and New York Jets based almost entirely on

553
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 1: fan response and enthusiasm to their draft. It's my biggest

554
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 1: it's right now my biggest underbelt. So me and Tim

555
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 1: are completely opposite sides. I just them in. The Bears

556
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 1: are my two biggest fade teams this upcoming season. Um,

557
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson has shown me nothing. He got outplayed by

558
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 1: his backup who end up beating the Bengals in a

559
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 1: throwaway game. So, Zach Wilson, if you can take the

560
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: next step, if I can see this could read a defense,

561
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 1: and I look like a deer in headlights. It was undersized.

562
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 1: I'll be about it. But right now, the Jets to

563
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 1: me an inflated line like their bet up. You want

564
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: to take a respect given to the Patriots. This line

565
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 1: is a game more than it should be just because

566
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: of New York sports books like this line is just

567
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 1: getting pounded. But to the over, because the Jets fans

568
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 1: are so excited about this team, where me, as a professional,

569
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 1: I need to take that value. So I had them

570
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 1: at four wins for the season and getting a free

571
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: game and a half towards the over. I love the

572
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 1: under just again, it's because they're in such a hard division.

573
00:29:56,520 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 1: The Bills, Miami Patriots, all of them. I have them

574
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 1: rated much higher than I do this Jets team. So

575
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 1: why hate being that guy? I'm just is why you

576
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 1: don't need to have me on the show, because I'm

577
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 1: i am betting public, right, you know, I I don't

578
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: have the numbers here. I haven't I haven't worked out

579
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: my my over unders for all thirty two teams. Uh

580
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 1: so yeah, I'm I'm certainly going on field. I'm certainly

581
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: going on because and that's you know, that's that's what

582
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 1: makes this so interesting. I was gonna say that's what

583
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 1: makes it so fun, but it doesn't. Losing is not fun.

584
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 1: But it's what, you know, is the role, a little

585
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 1: bit of the roll of the dice. But um what

586
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 1: what the Jets have done has intrigued me enough that

587
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 1: I'll take the over and uh I'll be the fish.

588
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 1: All right, Well, now we got a little bit of

589
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 1: a wager. We can see how it plays out through

590
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 1: the course of the year. Tim Graham, I am Chad Millman.

591
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: He is Simon Hunter for Matt Mitchell. This has been

592
00:30:56,440 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 1: the favorite podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Down order

593
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcast, rate review, subscribe,

594
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is

595
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 1: a gift until next time. I love you, Yeah,