WEBVTT - Eco Sentiment and Food Experiments 0:00:01.280 --> 0:00:05.119 You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast count US Saturdays 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:08.240 at one and seven pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 0:00:08.320 --> 0:00:11.479 the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:13.760 on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:00:15.720 --> 0:00:19.639 Welcome to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Amy Morris. This week we 0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:23.200 look at why the American public doesn't hold a lot 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:26.680 of faith in scientists and researchers, as well as other 0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:30.800 traditional institutions in the US. What could have happened to 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:34.680 damage that trust on such a profound level. We'll also 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:37.640 look at how the US economy needed a second wind 0:00:38.120 --> 0:00:43.640 and got one from Barbie Oppenheimer and Taylor Swift. And 0:00:43.680 --> 0:00:47.960 then we'll explore a new trend in restaurants, laboratory kitchens 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:51.120 and how they can help you help the world be 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:55.400 a better place. But we begin with the American consumer 0:00:55.440 --> 0:01:00.920 who seems unhappy. But why inflation is down? Consumers are 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:04.080 spending in spite of rising interest rates, and we could 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:06.880 get more of a market boon with rate cuts that 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:10.240 may be coming next year. Federal Reserve chair J Powell 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:13.760 said last month that the US economy is still growing. 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:17.319 Recent indicators suggests that economic activity has been expanding at 0:01:17.319 --> 0:01:21.840 a strong pace and well above earlier expectations. In the 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:25.360 third quarter, real GDP is estimated to have risen an 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:29.640 outsized annual rate of four point nine percent, boosted by 0:01:29.640 --> 0:01:31.120 a surge and consumer spending. 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:35.120 So where is the disconnect and why the discontent? Well, 0:01:35.200 --> 0:01:38.640 let's find out. Bloomberg Opinion colonist Connor Sen joins us now. 0:01:38.880 --> 0:01:42.479 He is the founder of Peachtree Creek Investments and Connor, 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:45.240 we've seen rapid job and economic growth, but the American 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:50.160 consumer is reportedly unhappy. Where's all this coming from. 0:01:50.640 --> 0:01:52.240 Well, I think it's a puzzle we've all been trying 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:55.160 to figure out because you would say, we've added millions 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:58.200 of jobs since the pandemic, the unemployment rates below four percent. 0:01:58.640 --> 0:01:59.880 GDP growth has been robot. 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:03.279 Consumer spending has recovered a lot, like people should be happy, 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:05.840 and they're not. And so it's a questionable why is that? 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:09.240 And you know, I think inflations, certainly in twenty twenty 0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:11.760 one and twenty twenty two were big factors. And even 0:02:11.800 --> 0:02:14.160 though inflation has come down a lot this year, it's 0:02:14.160 --> 0:02:15.840 fair to say, well, maybe prices are still up a 0:02:15.840 --> 0:02:17.720 lot versus two three years ago, so they're still. 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:18.079 Mad about that. 0:02:18.600 --> 0:02:20.360 And I think the fact that even though inflation has 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:23.600 come down, interest rates have mostly risen this year, and 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:26.440 so mortgage rates ticked up to eight percent in October. 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:29.200 And even if not everybody is buying a house or 0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:32.440 buying a car all the time, it's just annoying when consumers, 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:35.520 American consumers in particular, can't borrow the way they like to. 0:02:36.160 --> 0:02:38.520 And so that's why I wrote this column. 0:02:38.600 --> 0:02:40.640 And I think there's reasons to think a lot of 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:43.400 these things that have annoyed people, that are persisted for 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:45.840 two or three years could be reversing. And it'll be 0:02:45.840 --> 0:02:48.960 a good test to see if lower mortgage rates, cheap energy, 0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:52.399 and sort of consistently lower inflation are enough to turn 0:02:52.400 --> 0:02:53.440 the vibes around. 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:58.120 Okay, that's interesting. You believe consumers would be more welcoming 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:01.840 of a slow growth environment, not a fast growth, and 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:04.519 that that would make them more satisfied. But it does 0:03:04.600 --> 0:03:07.960 sound on the surface kind of the opposite of what 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:08.440 you might. 0:03:08.320 --> 0:03:12.240 Expect, and maybe there's something to be said for, you know, 0:03:12.280 --> 0:03:15.679 growth being too fast versus just right. And it's the 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:17.720 kind of thing where an econos might say, well, even 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:20.000 though your costs are up twenty percent, your wages are 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.000 up twenty three percent, so you're somewhat better off. But 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:23.920 no one really thinks that way. They think, well, I 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:26.480 earned the rays I got, and then this inflation is 0:03:26.520 --> 0:03:28.320 just something annoying I have to deal with. They don't 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:31.519 think about the two being linked. And so, you know, 0:03:31.560 --> 0:03:33.480 people might be happy in the late twenty tens. They 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:36.080 were happier when wage growth was three percent, but inflation 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:38.440 was two and so maybe that kind of environment in 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:41.880 twenty twenty four, with lower interest rates could put people 0:03:41.920 --> 0:03:42.520 at a better mood. 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:46.720 So now you are saying that that an economic slowdown 0:03:46.840 --> 0:03:50.640 is likely coming. So let's see how these consumers respawn 0:03:50.840 --> 0:03:52.040 in a different environment. 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:55.800 Yeah, and I think right now, I don't think we're 0:03:55.800 --> 0:03:58.120 going to have a recession, but growth looks to be slower. 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:01.000 Job growth has come down limit rate, it's closer to 0:04:01.080 --> 0:04:02.680 four than in the low threes. 0:04:03.600 --> 0:04:04.040 We see. 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:07.200 Inflation has certainly come down. And so let's see how 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:09.400 people like this environment. And we saw this month that 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:11.840 consumer confidence rose this month for the first time in 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:14.200 four months, even though growth is slower in the fourth 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:15.400 quarter than it wasn't the third. 0:04:16.279 --> 0:04:18.640 So is that the consumer reaction you've been watching for. 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:21.159 What does all this tell you, Well. 0:04:21.200 --> 0:04:24.160 I think it's sort of again suggests that people. 0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:26.120 I mean, it's great that we got the unemployment rate 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:28.480 back to pre pandemic levels, but the way in which 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:31.320 we got there still wasn't the best ride for people. 0:04:31.800 --> 0:04:34.400 And going forward, since I do think we are going 0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:37.400 to have slower growth and hopefully lower energy prices, I believe, 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:41.120 lower interest rates, I think it's reasonable to think that 0:04:41.120 --> 0:04:43.839 that confidence will tick up. And that's sort of the 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:45.960 test to see, you know, is it really bit about 0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:49.159 that that people didn't like the inflation, didn't like a 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:51.159 lot of the pressures we've had over the past few years, 0:04:51.240 --> 0:04:54.600 and a more normalized environment with cheaper energy and lower 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:56.360 cost to credit is what they've been waiting for. 0:04:57.120 --> 0:04:59.960 And we are talking with Bloomberg opinion columnist connorson about 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:03.280 consumer sentiment and what it will take to satisfy the 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:07.360 consumer and Connor, you just mentioned lower energy prices, lower 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:10.560 prices at the pump, lower prices to make your home 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:15.040 warm in these winter months, and you mentioned the lower 0:05:15.080 --> 0:05:18.080 cost of credit. Are there other benefits that come along 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:20.240 with it that the consumer would be looking for? 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:22.080 I think it will help the own freeze in the 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:25.560 housing market. And it's sort of the housing market, it's like, 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:27.160 how is it doing? And I think there are a 0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:28.720 lot of ways you can in which you could say 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:31.719 it's really strong because inventory is still very low, prices 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:34.920 are very high. If you're a homeowner and you locked 0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:37.159 in your mortgage rate a few years ago, you're sitting pretty. 0:05:37.520 --> 0:05:40.080 But it's also very dysfunctional. We have the lowest existing 0:05:40.120 --> 0:05:43.200 home sales in twenty or twenty five years on some measures, 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:45.919 fewer home sales now than at the worst period of 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:49.280 the financial crisis, which is kind of ridiculous. Affordability is 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:51.200 the worst it's been in forty years, and so if 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:53.599 you're trying to buy a home, it's been terrible. And 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:57.200 I think that lower mortgage rates and could sort of 0:05:57.200 --> 0:06:00.880 get people to first help supportability, but also if you 0:06:01.000 --> 0:06:02.760 are looking, if you have a low mortgage rate or 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.760 looking to move, well, maybe mortgage rates in the sixes, 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:07.920 even though it'ld be a higher mortgage rate, maybe that's 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:09.560 enough to get you out of your home, willing to 0:06:09.560 --> 0:06:11.520 make that move for a better job, for family reasons, 0:06:11.560 --> 0:06:14.200 what have you, and just sort of make the market 0:06:14.240 --> 0:06:16.280 more functional again, and I think that would sort of 0:06:16.320 --> 0:06:19.880 make people feel better. Even if it's you know, maybe 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:21.560 not as hot of a housing market as it was 0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:23.840 in the past, you call it dysfunctional. 0:06:23.960 --> 0:06:27.560 Does that lead then to volatility or unpredictability? Is that 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:28.760 what makes this so hard? 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:30.839 Definitely? 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:33.320 I mean, because you had when COVID hit, sort of 0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:35.840 looked like the housing market might crash again, and then 0:06:35.880 --> 0:06:37.760 by the end of twenty twenty into twenty twenty one, 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:40.640 we had six million existing home sales, which is about 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:43.160 as high as it ever gets. And then right now 0:06:43.200 --> 0:06:45.599 we have existing home sales a little bit below four million, 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:48.960 So it's a thirty thirty five percent decline and that's 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:50.920 really tough if you're just a homeowner or someone looking 0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:52.640 to buy a home. But it's also terrible if you're 0:06:53.040 --> 0:06:55.640 a realtor or someone who's a home decorator or a 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:59.000 mover or a loan originator. It just you went from 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:01.039 a boom to a bust. People are losing jobs and 0:07:01.080 --> 0:07:03.440 it's just very uncertain about what the next three months 0:07:03.480 --> 0:07:05.960 looks like, let alone the next year, because there has 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:08.320 been so much volatility in the housing market and mortgage rates. 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:09.440 So I think a. 0:07:09.400 --> 0:07:12.520 Period of stability with maybe mortgage rates in the sixes 0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:14.440 would feel great compared to what has been like the 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:15.720 past few years of the roller coaster. 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:18.480 But what are the signs that tell you a slow 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:21.200 growth environment or at least a stable a more stable 0:07:21.280 --> 0:07:22.480 environment is on the way. 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:26.440 Well, So growth is looking right now in the fourth 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:28.720 quarter about two percent, which is down from five and 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:31.680 Q three, So that's two sort of normal that the 0:07:31.760 --> 0:07:34.040 kind of growth we had in the twenty tens. Again, 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:37.560 energy prices have already come down. Oil prices are probably 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:39.560 as low as they're going to get outside of recession, 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:41.880 just because we see that producers tend to want to 0:07:41.880 --> 0:07:45.240 cut back when prices get much lower. And now with 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:47.960 the inflation data we've gotten in recent months and some 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:49.880 tea leaves from the Federal Reserve, it looks like they're 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:52.320 going to be cutting rates as early, potentially as March 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:55.320 or next year. And you're seeing that the bond markets 0:07:55.320 --> 0:07:57.640 are responding to that. Mortgage rates have dropped from eight 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:00.720 percent down to seven point two percent or so. So 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:02.560 there's reason I think we're finally going to make some 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:05.160 progress on the interest rates side, which we haven't done, 0:08:05.360 --> 0:08:08.200 you know, since this recovery. 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:11.680 So going forward, let's look toward the first quarter of 0:08:11.720 --> 0:08:15.720 twenty twenty four. You are saying that we are expecting 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:18.040 an economic slow down, that is something that is going 0:08:18.120 --> 0:08:21.560 to give the consumer more confidence or will they just 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.560 be more satisfied with a more stable environment. 0:08:25.440 --> 0:08:27.120 I think they want both right now. I think just 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:30.240 stability is what people want. Lower prices. Stable prices are 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:33.520 what people want, lower interest rates. The inflation's in bad, 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:37.000 the unpredictability's been bad, the volatility has been bad. People 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:38.640 just don't want to have to think about this stuff. 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:40.600 I might because I like, you know, to talk to 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:42.840 you about it and write about it, to look at markets, 0:08:42.840 --> 0:08:46.040 but the average person just wants to know gas is 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:48.520 going to be affordable and not move around too much. 0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:50.800 When I'm looking to buyer sell my home, I get 0:08:50.840 --> 0:08:52.520 a reasonable rate. They don't want to have to think 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:55.040 about changes in all of this stuff all the time. 0:08:55.120 --> 0:08:56.959 And I think just to the extent that all of 0:08:57.000 --> 0:08:58.920 this volatility can be on the back burner, people can 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:00.679 focus on their lives and other things that would be 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:01.679 a relief to consumers. 0:09:01.960 --> 0:09:04.160 And just as an aside, we've been talking here on 0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:08.760 Bloomberg about the disconnect between the consumer sentiment and the 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:11.959 actual economy itself. The economy is not bad right now, 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:15.160 but the consumer sentiment doesn't reflect that. They feel like 0:09:15.200 --> 0:09:19.120 the economy is rough right now and making things harder 0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:19.720 for them. 0:09:20.040 --> 0:09:22.440 Yeah, people feel like they deserve the wages they have 0:09:22.520 --> 0:09:24.120 and the job they have today, but they want the 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:26.800 prices they had in twenty nineteen, and that's fair. You know, 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:29.520 people want loss of government services and low taxes. 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:30.480 We all want to have our. 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:32.199 Cake and eat it too, sure, And I think when 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:35.640 the pandemic hit, a lot of disruption occurred, and there's 0:09:35.640 --> 0:09:37.200 a lot of uncertainty about what it would mean. We 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:39.440 didn't know if we'd get vaccines or how things would 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:42.480 shake out. And policy makers responded the way they did. 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:45.599 And you could argue about the choices we made or 0:09:45.640 --> 0:09:47.120 the path we took to get here. 0:09:47.200 --> 0:09:49.560 But I think all things considered, it's not bad. 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:53.920 But we want to put that volatility and uncertainty behind 0:09:53.960 --> 0:09:56.120 us and just get back to normalcy. And I think 0:09:56.160 --> 0:09:56.840 we're getting there. 0:09:56.920 --> 0:10:00.280 So just before we go Connor, the volatility and the 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:03.240 uncertainty is still sort of a residual effect then from 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:05.960 the pandemic, which was by the way years ago, but 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:06.800 we're still feeling that. 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:13.120 Yeah, it's sort of even you know, Autobal prices are 0:10:13.120 --> 0:10:14.520 still higher than I think they will be a year 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:16.839 from now because we still have a lack of inventory, 0:10:17.320 --> 0:10:19.880 producers trying to catch up supply chain things that are 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:23.439 in the pipeline. The housing market is still digesting everything 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:26.280 that's happened. And then even if you know, maybe this 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:30.040 month versus last month is stable, people don't adjust that quickly, 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:32.000 and they're thinking about all the change that's occurred over 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:33.600 the past three or four years, and it just takes 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:36.440 a little longer to shake off all of the change 0:10:36.480 --> 0:10:37.000 that's happened. 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:39.920 Connor, thank you so much for taking the time with us. 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:41.400 Thanks. 0:10:41.400 --> 0:10:45.440 Amy Connorson is a Bloomberg Opinion colonist and founder of 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:49.320 Peachtree Creek Investments. And coming up, we'll look at a 0:10:49.360 --> 0:10:53.319 new poll. It's gauging Americans trust or lack of it 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:58.120 in science, research and other traditional institutions. Stay with us, 0:10:58.200 --> 0:11:00.920 much more still to come. You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion. 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:16.280 You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast counts Saturdays at 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:19.400 one and seven pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com. The 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:22.600 iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:24.760 demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:11:26.800 --> 0:11:29.959 You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion i Amy Morris. A recent 0:11:30.040 --> 0:11:33.680 Pew poll showed Americans trust and scientists fell during the 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:36.920 pandemic years. More than a quarter of American surveyed say 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:40.040 they are distrustful enough of scientists that they don't believe 0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:42.559 they'll act in the public's best interests. Want to get 0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:45.559 more on this now, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Faith Lamb, host 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:49.520 of the Follow the Science podcast, joins me now and Fay. 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:52.000 We talked about this before, but let's get into it 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:54.199 a little bit deeper. How did this come to fruition 0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:55.600 during the pandemic? 0:11:56.920 --> 0:11:59.600 Well, I think that it has to do with the 0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:02.640 type of science that people were paying attention to during 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:06.120 the pandemic, and that was science medical science that was 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:08.360 really done on the fly, as well as public health, 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:12.920 which mixes a lot of judgment, calls and values into 0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:14.800 scientific ideas. 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:19.280 And is that what we experienced? Then there were more 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:23.520 suppositions and more hypotheses than actual scientific facts. 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:26.080 I think that was part of it. I think scientists 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:32.280 and people in public health weren't always clear on what 0:12:32.640 --> 0:12:36.880 was a judgment call or a decision to say, do 0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:41.280 everything possible for a period of time to avoid spreading COVID. 0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:43.040 That was just a decision that was made in a 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:46.320 lot of places that we would do everything possible, including 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:50.760 locking down our cities. But it wasn't purely scientific decision. 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:53.320 Science can tell you how to achieve that, but it 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:56.480 can't necessarily tell you that that's the goal we should 0:12:56.480 --> 0:12:57.640 have set for ourselves. 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:00.320 Yeah, there was a lot of debate I remember, between 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:04.560 wearing masks don't wear masks. At the very beginning in 0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:07.439 March of twenty twenty, there was a whole thing about 0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:09.440 don't wear masks, it's not going to help. 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.160 And then well and it was Yeah, it was worse 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:15.560 than that, because I think that what the real flip 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:21.920 flop that was really damaging to public opinion was the 0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:24.040 flip flop on whether we should even worry about this 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:25.960 at all. You know, there was a period of time 0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:29.040 when it was coming from the public health community, not 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.920 from Donald Trump. You know, the don't panic, don't worry, 0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:34.520 the flu is worse. We were hearing that all through 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:38.520 January and February from the public health community. And now 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:40.160 they say, oh, no, that was Donald Trump. But if 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:43.080 you look back what people were saying, it wasn't they 0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:46.440 flip flop from telling us not to worry to very 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:49.600 quickly turning around saying, yes, worry and stay home and 0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:50.240 wear a mask. 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:54.360 Now, were there any indications before the pandemic that trust 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:59.679 in scientists and science was starting to falter, starting to wane? 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:03.920 Maybe? I mean, I don't consider that necessarily a problem, 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:08.800 because I have interactions with scientists almost every day, and 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:12.599 I don't think that as individuals they're any more or 0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:16.000 less trustworthy than anybody else. They're just human. They're people 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:19.200 that have a job to do, and some people are 0:14:19.280 --> 0:14:22.560 extremely honest and some people are less so. But what 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:26.560 makes science trustworthy is the methods of science that create 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:30.400 a reliable body of knowledge. It's not that the individual 0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:34.520 scientists are necessarily without conflicts of interest, or that they 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:36.880 don't get things wrong, or that they don't get sometimes 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:38.400 stuck on their own wrong ideas. 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:42.120 So how can the trust be rebuilt? 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:46.920 I think that the big problem isn't necessary that people 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:51.360 don't have a kind of a blanket blind trust in scientists. 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:54.000 They should ask if a scientist says something you should 0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:57.160 ask why, what's your evidence, what makes you say that, 0:14:57.240 --> 0:15:00.840 and why do scientists other scientists agree with you. I 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:03.680 think that's legitimate. I think what we're seeing, though, is 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:07.160 the growth of econom an irrational paranoia where people have 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:10.440 a sort of knee your distrust of the whole thing 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:14.760 of everything that scientists have learned. And so I think 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:17.880 there is a kind of a knee jerk reaction in 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:21.080 the opposite way that people are feeling so disillusioned that 0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:24.840 they assume that if there was a clinical trial that 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:27.840 showed a vaccine worked well, then they just don't believe it. 0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:30.240 That there's no amount of evidence that will convince them. 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:34.080 And we are talking to Blueberg opinion columnist Faith Lamb 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:37.640 about Americans trust in science and what scientists can do 0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:41.600 to regain that trust. I was thinking, also, Fey, about 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:45.120 the issue of vaccines. You just mentioned it, particularly the 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:47.600 COVID vaccine. There are a lot of people to this 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:51.240 day who will not get it, but that's not new. 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:57.200 There have been debates over vaccinating kids for decades. Does 0:15:57.320 --> 0:16:00.600 this distrust of science date back to that or is 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:03.400 that something else? Is that embedded somewhere else. 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:07.080 It's connected I mean there's trust in science, and then 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:12.360 there's trust in doctors to recommend the right medications. I mean, 0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:15.560 you're talking about getting an injection, and and it does 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:18.520 take a certain amount of trust when you're healthy to say, okay, 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:22.160 im I let my doctor inject me with this. And 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:25.080 so I think a lot of people have also been 0:16:25.120 --> 0:16:27.680 swayed by the fact that there are people who call 0:16:27.720 --> 0:16:30.480 themselves scientists and who even have scientific degrees who are 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:33.200 on the anti vaxer side. And so it may not 0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:35.960 be a matter of just getting people to trust science, 0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:39.240 but getting people to think critically about what to trust 0:16:39.240 --> 0:16:40.880 and why. 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:44.240 Okay, so when we go back and review what scientists 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:48.560 were saying during the pandemic, and when we ask why 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:52.120 they weren't more clear or why they were flip flopping, 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:56.200 their reply is often that they simply didn't know at 0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:59.160 the time. This was all very new, So how can 0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:01.880 they give us proper guidance if they didn't know. 0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:05.880 I think that you just have to play the long 0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:08.320 game in any area of science, and that means if 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:10.080 you don't know, you have to admit you don't know, 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:12.520 and then you have to say why you're making an 0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:15.080 educated guess on one side or the other, and why 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:18.080 you think things are going to go a certain way 0:17:18.200 --> 0:17:19.760 or why you think you should err on the side 0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:20.600 of caution when. 0:17:20.480 --> 0:17:20.959 You don't know. 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:24.440 But I think public health has a history of sometimes 0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:29.119 not being totally honest about their uncertainty because there's a 0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.199 sense of, you know, we have to get people to 0:17:31.240 --> 0:17:34.120 do this, and say, you know, the ends justify the means, 0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:35.720 So we have to lie a little bit to get 0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:37.280 people to do the right thing, We'll do it. And 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:40.119 I think that's a real difference between public health and 0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:43.720 just about any other area of science where part of 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:46.680 the game is to recognize where you don't know things 0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:51.640 and measure your uncertainty, make sure that you understand your 0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:52.560 margin of error. 0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:54.680 I just want to go back to something you just said. 0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:57.240 You're not accusing them of lying, You're not saying that 0:17:57.280 --> 0:17:58.840 they lied. Well, you know. 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:03.080 I did a podcast episode with Peter Sandman, who is 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:08.080 an expert in risk communication, and the title was why 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:12.760 I public health officials sometimes lie? And Peter Sandman talked 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:15.480 about what he calls the noble lie, the idea that well, 0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:18.840 you sometimes, you know, people think they're lying for the 0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:22.840 greater good, and he had some very good examples of 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.680 places where it looked like that's what was happening, that 0:18:25.720 --> 0:18:29.200 people in public health were actually bending the truth or 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:32.320 telling half truths as a way to try to push 0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:34.240 people or nudge people to do what they thought was 0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:34.760 the right thing. 0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:37.760 That how could they ever rebuild trust if they lied? 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:43.040 That's a good question, I mean, Sandman his point was 0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:46.240 that this is a bad strategy. It's a bad strategy. 0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:50.920 That these problems tend to be long term, and you 0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:54.440 wear out your trust in a really bad way when 0:18:54.920 --> 0:18:58.240 you do try to tell half truths or pretend you 0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:01.119 know what you're talking about when you don't. That that 0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:04.119 is a problem. And so the other thing is, of 0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:07.880 course that scientists often just get things wrong because they're human, 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:12.359 and that things get hashed out. So it's okay to 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:16.439 be distrustful of individual scientific claims. We should be, But 0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:19.680 when you have this you know, body of evidence and 0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:26.240 clinical trials and you know, I guess expert opinion that's 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:29.200 informed by a lot of evidence, then at some point 0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:33.360 you kind of have to It's paranoid to think that 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:37.480 that's all been somehow manufactured. It becomes crazy not to 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:38.040 believe it. 0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:41.359 Well, to that end, it's not just science, right, Trust 0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:43.040 in many institutions has fallen. 0:19:44.040 --> 0:19:47.360 Yes, that's true. That's true. And I think scientists actually 0:19:48.480 --> 0:19:52.560 got higher marks for trusts than other institutions, whether they 0:19:52.760 --> 0:19:54.840