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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bluebeg

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Speaker 1: DAYBAC podcast, available every morning on Apples, Spotify or wherever

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Speaker 1: you listen. It's Monday, the twenty third of December in London.

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Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepge. Coming up today. Panama's leader rejects Trump's

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Speaker 1: threat to reimpose US control over the Panama Canal. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: Trump calls talk that he has ceded the presidency to

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Speaker 1: Elon Musk a hoax as questions grow about the billionaire's

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Speaker 1: outsized influence. Plus, the clock is ticking, France awaits a

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Speaker 1: new government as Prime Minister France Wi Bairu's self imposed

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Speaker 1: deadline looms. Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 1: President elect Donald Trump's trade threats and diplomatic efforts are

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Speaker 1: causing turmoil globally. In the latest example, Trump is claiming

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Speaker 1: the Panama Canal is charging the US quote exorbitant prices

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Speaker 1: and rates of passage, and he is demanding lower fees

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Speaker 1: or else. Here is Trump speaking earlier in Phoenix, Arizona.

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Speaker 2: The fees being charged by Panama ridiculous, highly unfair, especially

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Speaker 2: knowing the extraordinary generosity that has been bestowed to Panama.

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Speaker 2: I say very foolishly by the United States, This complete

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Speaker 2: ripoff of our country.

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Speaker 1: Will immediately stop Trump talking about the US, demanding that

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Speaker 1: the canal will be returned to the United States if

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Speaker 1: the Panama does not change. In a video statement, Panama's

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Speaker 1: President Jose Mulino rebuffed Donald Trump's threat.

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Speaker 3: Every square meter of the Panama Canal and its surroundings

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Speaker 3: belongs to Panama and.

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Speaker 4: Will continue to be. The sovereignty and the independence of

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Speaker 4: our country are non negotiable.

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Speaker 1: Panama's President Jose Raoul Mulino speaking, They're vre a translated

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Speaker 1: writing on truth Social Trump hit back, saying, quote, We'll

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Speaker 1: see about that. Presidents elect Trump has also been hitting

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Speaker 1: back it claims that he has ceded the presidency to

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Speaker 1: billionaire advisor Elon Musk. Here's what he told the event

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Speaker 1: in Phoenix.

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Speaker 5: No, he's not taking the presidency.

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Speaker 2: I like having smart people.

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Speaker 5: You know, they're on a new kick.

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Speaker 2: Russia, Russia, Russia, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine, all the different oultures,

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Speaker 2: and the new one is President Trump proceeded the presidency

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Speaker 2: to Elin Musk. No, No, that's that happening.

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Speaker 1: Trump's decision to address Musk's power is testimony to the

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Speaker 1: influence of the world's richest man. Trump appointed the Tesla

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Speaker 1: CEO to head a cost cutting and deregulation effort, while

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Speaker 1: the two men came together to try and tank a

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Speaker 1: deal to temporarily fund the US government. After failing to

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Speaker 1: get enough votes for an alternative, a slimmed down version

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Speaker 1: of the original funding bill was passed, preventing a US

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Speaker 1: government shut down before Christmas. Now to Europe, France's new

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Speaker 1: prime minister is struggling to form a new cabinet that

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Speaker 1: won't be toppled by another no confidence vote in parliament.

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Speaker 1: The Socialist Party have responded to France Were Bayrou's attempts

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Speaker 1: to more moderate members with a letter stating that he

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Speaker 1: has failed to break away from the policies of his

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Speaker 1: ousted predecessor, Michelle Barnier. The new government's top priority will

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Speaker 1: be crafting a twenty twenty five budget, with Bayrou aiming

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Speaker 1: to finalize that by mid February. French media outlets, though

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Speaker 1: report a decision on the makeup of the cabinet will

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Speaker 1: be reached today, but the President's office has not issued

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Speaker 1: an official response. UK businesses say that they expect their

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Speaker 1: activity will fall noticeably in the coming months. The findings

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Speaker 1: place immediate pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the

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Speaker 1: new year. Bloomberg's Teaba Ada Bayo has more.

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Speaker 6: A steep decline. That's what awaits the country's private section

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Speaker 6: activity in twenty twenty five, says the Confederation of British Industry.

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Speaker 6: According to the group's latest Growth Indicator survey, all three

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Speaker 6: major sectors are expecting volumes to fall in the first quarter,

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Speaker 6: with manufacturers expectations at their weakest since May twenty twenty.

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Speaker 6: Businesses say they plan to respond by cutting headcounts sharply.

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Speaker 6: Hiring tensions are at their weakest in over four years.

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Speaker 6: The bleak outlook from UK employer shows the scale of

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Speaker 6: the challenge facing Rachel Reeves as she seeks to turn

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Speaker 6: around economic sentiment. It comes after the Chancellor's tax raising

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Speaker 6: October budget was widely criticized by the business community for

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Speaker 6: jeopardizing growth in London. To you we aded Bio Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Now, a judge has ordered pre trialed attention for the

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Speaker 1: man suspected of driving a car into a German Christmas

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Speaker 1: market in this city of Magdeburg two days ago. The suspect,

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Speaker 1: a fifty year old doctor of Saudi Arabian origin, was

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Speaker 1: taken into custody on Friday evening. Christian Pagel, the interior

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Speaker 1: minister for the German state of Mecklenburg Western Pomerania, where

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Speaker 1: he originally lived, says that he'd previously been flagged too

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Speaker 1: German authorities.

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Speaker 3: The suspect threatened to do something that would attract international attention.

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Speaker 3: He referred in this context the attack in Boston the

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Speaker 3: Boston Marathon in twenty thirteen. Subsequently, a warrant was issued

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Speaker 3: to search the flat of the suspect. No evidence of

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Speaker 3: any kind was found that would indicate actual preparations to

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Speaker 3: commit to such an act.

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Speaker 1: That was the German politician Christian Pagel, speaking there Va translator.

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Speaker 1: A nine year old child and four women were killed

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Speaker 1: in the incident, which left more than two hundred people injured.

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Speaker 1: Authorities are investigating the suspects background and motives, including warnings

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Speaker 1: from Saudi Arabia about his potential danger. And those are

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Speaker 1: some of our top stories for you this morning. Let's

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Speaker 1: get to the markets this hour. So themci is sugindexed

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Speaker 1: up by one point three percent. You've got a rebound

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Speaker 1: in Asian equities, and then we had quite a significant

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Speaker 1: global sell off last week. Stock futures also for the

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Speaker 1: US are looking up up by eight tens of one percent.

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Speaker 1: For the now is that future is S and P

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Speaker 1: five hundred evenly futures up by half of one percent,

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Speaker 1: and we're thinking about, of course, what's happening in Europe.

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Speaker 1: The catcrant has been lagging the border European markets for

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Speaker 1: most for most of this year, and in fact the

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Speaker 1: worst performance since twenty ten. We're awaiting the formation of

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Speaker 1: a French cabinet in terms of treasury yields four fifty two.

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Speaker 1: We've also had out last week, of course, more inflation

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Speaker 1: data which did look quite muted to that reignited fed

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Speaker 1: rate cup bet, so that was one thing to think about.

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Speaker 1: The budget in pass in the US, though, does seem

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Speaker 1: to have been resolved. The Bluebook Dollar spot index is

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Speaker 1: steady to slightly firmer, and you also have oil prices

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Speaker 1: up slightly, gold trading at twenty six thousand two than

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Speaker 1: six hundred and twenty five, and bitcoin treading just above

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Speaker 1: ninety five thousand dollars this head of the UK GDP

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Speaker 1: data this morning. Those are the markets this hour. In

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Speaker 1: a moment, we are going to be talking a little

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Speaker 1: bit about the new cabinet and whether that's going to

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Speaker 1: be announced today. That's the promise, and of course Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's threats against Panama and the Panama Canal. There is

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Speaker 1: a story that has caught my this morning. I wonder

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Speaker 1: whether you've read it. Of course, we're coming to the

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Speaker 1: end of the year thinking about twenty twenty five. We've

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Speaker 1: got a fantastic piece that's on the Blomberg terminal about

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Speaker 1: the eleven worlds trades of twenty twenty four. Of course,

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Speaker 1: Crypto is involved in that story, donald Trump's win in November,

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Speaker 1: Tobo charging the market one hundred thousand dollars mark for bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: Of course, then there's also though what happened in terms

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Speaker 1: of whether you try to time the market. Certainly mom

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Speaker 1: and pop investors, retail investors did. They kind of lost out.

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Speaker 1: According to the piece that we've written. They also look

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Speaker 1: at Argentina, the win of Javier Malay and how that

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Speaker 1: helped Argentina's debt. Loads of other really interesting trades that

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Speaker 1: have been the themes of twenty twenty four. You can

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Speaker 1: have a look at that story that's on the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: terminal and on the front of our website this morning.

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Speaker 1: There's also a fantastic piece about ETFs and the God

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Speaker 1: Blessed America ETF, which has been one of the best

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Speaker 1: performers in twenty twenty four C and it beat the

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Speaker 1: S and P five hundred one story to read about. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's go to the story on Panama. Panama's president has

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Speaker 1: rejected Donald Trump's threat to reimpose US control over the canal,

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Speaker 1: saying that its shipping tolls are not inflated and that

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Speaker 1: sovereignty over this key commercial waterway is not negotiable. Joining

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Speaker 1: US now is Bloomberg's senior editor, Bill Ferries to discuss Bill,

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Speaker 1: Good morning, Thank you for your time. Trump appears concerned

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Speaker 1: about China's involvement in managing trade through the canal. What

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Speaker 1: has Panama's leader been saying about all.

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Speaker 4: Of this, Well, the Panama's president has basically come out

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Speaker 4: and say, you know, the canal is sovereign Panamanian territory,

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Speaker 4: and the country and the canal authority have been committed

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Speaker 4: to kind of ensuring a politically neutral stance over use

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Speaker 4: of the canal ever since it was handed back to

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Speaker 4: Panama about more than four decades ago, so it's open

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Speaker 4: to all nations. The US is really the biggest user

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Speaker 4: of the canal. I think seventy percent of the traffic

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Speaker 4: going through there now is from the US or heading

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Speaker 4: to the US. And it's true that the canal has

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Speaker 4: has looked at raising rates. They've had a huge water shortage,

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Speaker 4: shortage of rainfall for really kind of years now, and

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Speaker 4: that's depleted the reservoir that feeds the canals, and so

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Speaker 4: they've had to portion out who gets through. There's been

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Speaker 4: there's been backloads at times trying to get through, but

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Speaker 4: you know, it's Panama's territory and that's basically been unquestioned

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Speaker 4: for almost half a century.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but the real world impact, what will that be?

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Speaker 1: I mean, this looks, as you say, to be a

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Speaker 1: sort of feud between Panama and Trump, and all of

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Speaker 1: this happening pre inauguration.

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Speaker 4: Well, it certainly shows the influence that Trump has on

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Speaker 4: global affairs, including on countries you know that we didn't

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Speaker 4: really expect to be talking about this week, like Panama

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Speaker 4: for instance. I think it will be interesting to see

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Speaker 4: We'll have to at some point parse out you know

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Speaker 4: what Trump says versus what he does. I'm not sure

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Speaker 4: what his game plan here is with Panama. It's more

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Speaker 4: or less a US ally. The US is actually charged

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Speaker 4: with protecting the canal if if it falls into foreign hands,

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Speaker 4: and there's not a huge trade issue going on between

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Speaker 4: the US and Panama. So I'm not sure like what

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Speaker 4: the endgame here is other than perhaps getting trying to

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Speaker 4: get rates down. That's going to be something Panama has

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Speaker 4: to deal with once Trump takes office on January twentieth.

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Speaker 1: There was also a lot to be taken from the

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Speaker 1: various speeches that Trump made over the weekend. I mean

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Speaker 1: he made also nominations, for example, for the lead of

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Speaker 1: the Council of Economic Advisors, which is something we look

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Speaker 1: at a lot. But there was a line about meeting Putin.

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Speaker 1: The President elect suggested he'd be open to that meeting,

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Speaker 1: to meeting Putin.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and that's something I think Vladimir Putin said last

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Speaker 4: week at one of his news conferences that he would

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Speaker 4: be willing to meet with Trump to talk about Ukraine

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Speaker 4: and other issues. And Trump has maintained that he's always

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Speaker 4: been willing to sit down. I think he pitches that

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Speaker 4: as something as a plus for him that he's willing

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Speaker 4: to talk to just about anybody. The big question will be,

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Speaker 4: you know, what kind of decision might they come to

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Speaker 4: Over Ukraine. The President elect has continued to insist that

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Speaker 4: the war should end very quickly. At one point even

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Speaker 4: said it would end before he took off us. And

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Speaker 4: I think Ukraine, you've seen both sides in that conflict

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Speaker 4: trying to nail down as much territory as they can

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Speaker 4: for any advantage if negotiations or tru stocks are around

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Speaker 4: the corner. So we're still I think thirty days out

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Speaker 4: from Donald Trump's presidency, but he's certainly already having a

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Speaker 4: major impact on global events.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Bill, thank you so much for being with me

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Speaker 1: this morning and discussing that Blueberg. Senior Editor, Bill Ferries. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's send our attention then to the French Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: of Francois Bayrou, who is struggling to form a new

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Speaker 1: cabinet that can actually survive a no confidence vote in parliament.

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Speaker 1: We're expecting news on it today. Joining us now Life

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Speaker 1: in Paris is William Harbin. Good morning, William. We were

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Speaker 1: expecting to hear about this on Sunday. Now it looks

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Speaker 1: to be today at the earliest. What do we know

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Speaker 1: about timings?

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Speaker 5: Well, this is well, welcome to the Groundhoup day of

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Speaker 5: French politics. There was the Prime Minister said last week

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Speaker 5: that he wanted to name a new cabinet by Christmas.

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Speaker 5: So that meant that essentially meant this weekend because today

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Speaker 5: is a day of national mourning for the cycloic disaster

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Speaker 5: in Mayot and most many people in France would count

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Speaker 5: the twenty fourth of December as being Christmas. So you know,

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Speaker 5: last night we were all waiting for the grand announcement

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Speaker 5: and then nothing came and they said that they would

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Speaker 5: not be making the announcement last night.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So then how does Bayrou avoid the same fate

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Speaker 1: as Barnier? Who do we think that Bayrou is speaking to?

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Speaker 1: Does he need the support of La penn and her party.

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Speaker 5: Well, he needs the least sort of implicit support of

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Speaker 5: more lawmakers than Barnier had, and Behor is perhaps better

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Speaker 5: positioned to be able to do that because he's he's

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Speaker 5: sort of he's the veteran centrist of French politics, and

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Speaker 5: so he has always had relatively sort of amenable relations

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Speaker 5: with both the sort of socialists and the center rights.

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Speaker 5: So he was in a good position to get the

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Speaker 5: numbers that would not necessarily back his government, but would

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Speaker 5: at least agreed to not immediately bring it down in

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Speaker 5: a no confidence vote. The problem is that he hasn't

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Speaker 5: really pulled the rabbit out perhaps on this one, and

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Speaker 5: the moderates that he needed, the on the left have

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Speaker 5: said that they don't want to be part of the

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Speaker 5: government and they as of yet haven't seen anything that

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Speaker 5: would make them not join a no competence vote.

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Speaker 1: Very briefly, what happens to the budget? We've seen Francis

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Speaker 1: borrowing costs escalate a sell off in oats in recent months.

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Speaker 1: What about you know, getting actually a budget for France?

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Speaker 5: Sorted well, I don't thinking best it was going to

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Speaker 5: get any clarity before the end of the year on

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Speaker 5: where Prance is going, probably not until mid January. For now,

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Speaker 5: with the Frances relying on emergency legislation that sent she

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Speaker 5: just avoids a shutdown, and Bejo said that he would

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Speaker 5: like to have a budget in place twenty five by

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Speaker 5: mid February. What's in that budget is hard to guess

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Speaker 5: at the moment. If he's going to make you're going

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Speaker 5: to be at to broaden support he has, he will

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Speaker 5: probably have to make more concessions, and that probably means

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Speaker 5: a bigger deficit next year than Barney had planned.

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Speaker 7: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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Speaker 7: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

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Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka and.

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Speaker 7: on Bloomberg day Break Europe.

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Speaker 2: M m

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Speaker 4: Mm hmm