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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: About that action.

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Speaker 3: All right, Here we go from the test throwing in

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Speaker 3: song spect we're saying it's a cash touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to win. That's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 4: If you want to.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Howork Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 1: am your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined as

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Speaker 1: always by the one the only BA Brandon Anderson for

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Speaker 1: some best bets for NFL Week sixteen. We'll get to

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Speaker 1: those bets shortly, but first I've got some fun trend

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Speaker 1: and talking point because I just want to talk about

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Speaker 1: one thing today because we have a show full full

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Speaker 1: of stuff.

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Speaker 4: This is gonna be a best bet circus. It's gonna

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Speaker 4: be awesome.

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Speaker 1: But I'll start by just talking about the most ridiculous

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Speaker 1: spread and total I guess you would say on the board,

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Speaker 1: and that is the Texans and Raiders. So Texans are

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Speaker 1: minus fourteen and a half. You're like, why are we

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Speaker 1: talking about this? I promise it's kind of interesting.

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Speaker 4: Texans are fourteen and a half.

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Speaker 1: Total is thirty eight be the first game with a

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Speaker 1: spread of fourteen or more in a total of thirty

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Speaker 1: eight or less since the infamous Kendall Hinton game with

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Speaker 1: the Broncos.

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Speaker 4: And Saints back in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: So we are basically comparing whatever Pete Carroll decides to

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Speaker 1: throw out there to a wide receiver playing quarterback. If

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Speaker 1: that is how you would like to play with the

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Speaker 1: Raiders this week, that is your prerogative. So the Raiders

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Speaker 1: would be the first team to be underdogs of twelve

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Speaker 1: and a half for more with a total of thirty

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Speaker 1: eight or less in the same season. They've done it

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Speaker 1: now twice since the twenty eleven Rams, who also did it.

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Speaker 4: In back to back weeks. So that is your comparison,

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Speaker 4: and then stuck.

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Speaker 1: You talked about this on the Favorites earlier day, but

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Speaker 1: usually teams dogs of double digit dogs in back to

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Speaker 1: back weeks. Pretty good bets seventy two and forty four

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Speaker 1: against the spreads two thousand and three in that second leg,

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Speaker 1: including actually three and oh this season. So enough of

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Speaker 1: trying to talk you into taking the fourteen and a half,

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Speaker 1: because when they lose thirty eight nothing I'm gonna feel bad.

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Speaker 4: But BA, what do you even make of this game?

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Speaker 2: It really is a ridiculous line. The team total implied

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Speaker 2: for the Raiders is ten and a half, and it

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Speaker 2: was twelve and a half. I think that open and

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Speaker 2: it just continues to drop. The crazy thing is the

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Speaker 2: Raiders have gone under that, I think six times already

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Speaker 2: this season. So I look when this, you know, I

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Speaker 2: was just going to start from blank. Okay, what's the line,

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Speaker 2: what's the total, and go from there, And immediately I

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Speaker 2: was like, Raiders team total under Like Raiders mind shaft,

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Speaker 2: We're all in on no Raiders scoring. But ten and

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Speaker 2: a half it's so low, Like ten and a half

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Speaker 2: is the all under that I wanted. We did that

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Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago with Raiders and had it

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Speaker 2: all the way till the stupid leg last ten points

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Speaker 2: and that that crazy cover at the end a couple

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Speaker 2: of weeks ago. So look, I can't play a straight

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Speaker 2: under ten and a half like that's what I think

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Speaker 2: is gonna happen. But so disrespectful. Gino Smith is back supposedly,

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Speaker 2: and it's still we get the starting quarterback and we're

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Speaker 2: still expecting them to score ten to eleven points. Is crazy.

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Speaker 2: I looked at shutout the shutout outs at DraftKings is

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Speaker 2: plus nine point fifty. That is a terrible number for

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Speaker 2: a shutout, less than ten to one odds, Like normally

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Speaker 2: in a typical game it's like thirty or forty to

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Speaker 2: one by comparison. So then I was like, well, if

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Speaker 2: it's that low, what if the Raiders just excellently get

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Speaker 2: a couple of touchdowns. What if like the Texans turnover

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Speaker 2: inside the red zone or something. And I was like, well,

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Speaker 2: maybe we're about like an alt over twenty four or

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Speaker 2: twenty seven the other way. Just just to be contrarian. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: just no, I got nothing on that game. It's a

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Speaker 2: goofy line. Texans. Take care of business. Remember last week

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Speaker 2: we said with the Bears, Bears, if you're different, now

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Speaker 2: take care of business, get on with a win, and

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Speaker 2: just get this game out of here. This is the Texans.

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Speaker 4: Version of that.

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Speaker 2: If you're really good now as we all think you are,

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Speaker 2: just wipe out the Raiders. I don't really care if

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Speaker 2: you score ten or twelve or whatever around there. Just

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Speaker 2: get rid of them, move on with life, and let's

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Speaker 2: get to the other games.

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Speaker 1: All right, Fast forward, time I apologize to the audience

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Speaker 1: for talking raiders for this long But if you'd like

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Speaker 1: to tell some of the bets we're about to discuss,

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Speaker 1: find a quick siplink in the podcast and video description,

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Speaker 4: All right, it is time.

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Speaker 1: The Week sixteen Best Bets Circus is what I'm calling

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Speaker 1: it today because there's just a ton of great stuff

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Speaker 1: in here.

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Speaker 4: This is Brandon to your pick six that you put

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Speaker 4: out every week.

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Speaker 1: This week probably my favorite because you got some dogs

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Speaker 1: in there and I'm a dog guy, So what.

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Speaker 4: Are you doing with your pick six this week?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? So look, normally we throw in like five favorites

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Speaker 2: and maybe one underdog, or try to get a few

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Speaker 2: shorter favorites and we get ourselves to like a five

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Speaker 2: to one, maybe an eight to one. We've hit a

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Speaker 2: couple in that range. This week a little something different.

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Speaker 2: We're hoping for a Christmas miracle this week. We're going

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Speaker 2: with four four underdogs this week, plus two favorites, one

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Speaker 2: of whom is the Saints. So we got Saints favorites

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Speaker 2: with the Lions. Well that's our two favorites, and then Titans, Dolphins, Patriots,

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Speaker 2: and Colts. That's what we're doing this week. It is

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Speaker 2: last I checked at DraftKings one hundred and fourteen to

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Speaker 2: one odds. So this is like pizza money, and let's

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Speaker 2: see if we can get a little extra Christmas money,

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Speaker 2: get that big screen for the wall or whatever it

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Speaker 2: is that you've been looking for. This is that sort

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Speaker 2: of bet. Three rookie quarterbacks. We know on six pack

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Speaker 2: they love to talk about the terrible quarterbacks. We got

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Speaker 2: Tyler Shuck, we got cam Ward and we have debut

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Speaker 2: quinn Ewers for the Dolphins plus forty four year old

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Speaker 2: Grandpa Philip Rivers. That's the pod. That's the group this week. Truly,

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Speaker 2: we will need a Christmas miracle. We're not going to

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Speaker 2: talk Colts today. That of course is the Monday game, Evan,

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Speaker 2: You and I will talk about that one Sunday night.

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Speaker 2: That's truly a best bet. I really like the Colts

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Speaker 2: in that game. We'll get to that one on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to some of these other games here as well.

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Speaker 2: But that's the play. You pointed this out. I think

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Speaker 2: this is a good play that you talk about. It

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Speaker 2: if lots of underdogs here, good idea to maybe play

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Speaker 2: the ones you like individually as well, and or round robin.

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Speaker 2: I'm talking to me about round robin.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: The way I'd probably do with six is I'd probably

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Speaker 1: sprinkle very very light. Obviously everyone's gonna parlay it understood,

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Speaker 1: but I would sprinkle probably a little bit under that six,

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Speaker 1: like a very tiny on the five, and then I'd

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Speaker 1: probably touch the twos and threes ignore the four. Especially

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Speaker 1: with this type of game, it's just too expensive. And

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Speaker 1: that's the thing with Ron Robbins. It gets very expensive.

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Speaker 1: You try to play all the legs. But I'm just

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Speaker 1: giving you advice. So you're gonna do whatever you want

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Speaker 1: to do out there with a number at one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fourteen to one. Just have a little fun with it,

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Speaker 1: some pizza money, and hopefully some of those dogs come

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Speaker 1: through the door.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, should be a fun. We close out with a

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Speaker 2: prime time game Sunday night and Monday night, so we'll

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Speaker 2: be having some fun. Nothing on Thursday or Saturday. Of course,

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Speaker 2: Thursday is already big game tonight as we're recording, but

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Speaker 2: by the time you were listening, that one will have

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Speaker 2: already happened. We'll know a lot more about what the

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Speaker 2: NFC looks like. Sad to not really be able to

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Speaker 2: do Ramseyhawks. I'll be honest, I don't have a bet

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Speaker 2: for that game anyways, it's it's rainy, it's windy. I

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Speaker 2: will be happy to know that fill in the blank

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Speaker 2: won the game by the time we've listened to this.

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Speaker 2: So that's a fun one. We got two on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: We're going all Sunday games from here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Actually, you brought up something interesting. The fact that those

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Speaker 1: are Sunday night football and Monday night football all also

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Speaker 1: kind of gives you an out. Probably more of an

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Speaker 1: out with the Colts, but if the five hit before Indy,

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Speaker 1: you can obviously touch San Francisco at one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fourteen to one. Lots of different ways to get out

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Speaker 1: of it, especially if you hit you know, three or

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Speaker 1: the four three, or of the first four. All right,

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Speaker 1: best bets time. Let's start with the first game here.

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Speaker 1: You're going after Detroit and Pittsburgh. I think I know

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Speaker 1: your angle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, give me the Lions. This is my favorite pick

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Speaker 2: of the week pretty easily, actually, So give me a

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Speaker 2: Lions minus six and a half. There's still a couple

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Speaker 2: of those out there. Take the seven if you need to,

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Speaker 2: and we're going escalator. We'll get to it out in

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Speaker 2: a second. So Lions home against the Steelers. First glance

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Speaker 2: Steelers raw ra spot. We know it, actually, Network we

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Speaker 2: love the raw raw underdog, Mike Tomlin, this is not

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Speaker 2: the spot for it. There's so many underdog spots for

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Speaker 2: the Steelers. You kind of have to narrow the field,

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Speaker 2: and normally it's a better spot if Steelers are at

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Speaker 2: home on the road here, if they're a short underdog,

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Speaker 2: they're a touch down here. If it's a division game,

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Speaker 2: wrong again, if it's after a loss. Nope, we just

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Speaker 2: watched Monday, Like these are all the wrong spots for

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Speaker 2: raw Rah and it's the right spot for Detroit. The

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Speaker 2: stat we've talked about so often, two of them, in fact,

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Speaker 2: Jared Goff indoors with the Lions thirty seven to fifteen

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Speaker 2: and one against the spread seventy one percent. And then

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Speaker 2: your stat that you bring up off and after a

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Speaker 2: loss since November twenty two and now fifteen straight wins

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Speaker 2: for the Lions coming off a loss fourteen and one

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Speaker 2: ats covering by eleven points a game. So these aren't

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Speaker 2: even close like they are showing up. They're taking care

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Speaker 2: of business. And Detroit right now not a playoff team,

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Speaker 2: but they still pretty much control their fate if they

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Speaker 2: went out. I think they're like ninety eight percent or something,

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Speaker 2: and I still think they have a really good chance,

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Speaker 2: and I think they think that too. This offense looks elite.

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Speaker 2: They lost last week to the Rams, but they kind

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Speaker 2: of held their own. The offense was good, top five

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Speaker 2: rushing in passing lately by DVA. The big flaw is

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Speaker 2: the secondary. That's why they lost to the Rams. Everybody's

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Speaker 2: hurt back there. Both safeties are out. Carry Arnold is out, well,

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Speaker 2: guess what. Pittsburgh the perfect opponent for that. The Steelers.

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Speaker 2: They want to run and they want to throw short.

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Speaker 2: They throw short over three fourths of their passes, more

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Speaker 2: than any team in the league. You beat Detroit going deep,

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Speaker 2: you beat those safeties over the top, those backups out there.

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh wants to go heavy, They want to run, They

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Speaker 2: want to force you to get your linebackers on the field,

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Speaker 2: and they want to dump it off with Rogers. That

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Speaker 2: is not how you beat Detroit. They want their linebackers

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Speaker 2: in the field anyway. So Lions, I think this is

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Speaker 2: a great defensive matchup for them. They've been top five

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Speaker 2: by DVA at home defensively, Pittsburgh big home road splits

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Speaker 2: two the other direction. Top eight at home, bottom eight

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Speaker 2: on the road like they are here. So I think

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Speaker 2: this just goes sideways for the Steelers. Detroit I think

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Speaker 2: can run on a pretty injured front for Pittsburgh. Short

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Speaker 2: week for Pittsburgh as well. They have not defended middle

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Speaker 2: of the field. Well, that is how Detroit has lived.

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Speaker 2: Ben Johnson or Pittsburgh. Really they're who we thought they were.

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Speaker 2: Their defense is good, not great. Their offense not good,

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Speaker 2: not good enough. So in the last calendar year right now,

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh has nine losses by double digits. Here are the opponents, Seattle,

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Speaker 2: Green Bay Chargers in the Bills. That's this year, So

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Speaker 2: what's that? Good teams, Pittsburgh, you play good team, you

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Speaker 2: lose by double digits last year again, not even last season,

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Speaker 2: calendar year, so December and January double digits Eagles, Chiefs

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Speaker 2: Ravens twice. Again. You play a good team, Pittsburgh, you're

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Speaker 2: getting crushed double digits. Seven of those nine by fourteen

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Speaker 2: or more points. Detroit every win this season, all eight

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Speaker 2: of them by at least a touchdown, six of their

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Speaker 2: eight by thirteen or more. Average margin of victory twenty

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Speaker 2: two points a game. I think this is a big,

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Speaker 2: comfortable win for the Lions since Dan Campbell took the

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Speaker 2: play calling over their top five in pace as well.

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Speaker 2: That's good, more pace, more chances to be better. Detroit's

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Speaker 2: the better team. Lions minus six and a half. And

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Speaker 2: then here are the Escalators minus twelve and a half

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Speaker 2: plus one eighty six minus twenty and a half at

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Speaker 2: six to one. I think the Lions win big. We've

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Speaker 2: seen them do that. Often under Dan Campbell, and I

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Speaker 2: think they kind of show us who the Steelers are,

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Speaker 2: because where do you know who the Steelers are?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: You mentioned really all the great points here. I'll add

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Speaker 1: one more before we can roll on. But obviously Lions

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Speaker 1: led last week, pretty much blew the lead and then

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Speaker 1: kind of gotten blown out by the Rams. So under

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Speaker 1: Dan Campbell, when he's blown a lead of seven plus

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Speaker 1: points in his previous game and loses eleven and three

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Speaker 1: against the spread covered six in a row, not only

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Speaker 1: is this awful loss, but it's off a good situation

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Speaker 1: for Detroit. So I think a bunch of us like

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Speaker 1: to blow out here and it's just not the right

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Speaker 1: spot for Pittsburgh. All right, go into Honestly, this is

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite games of the week. I liked

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Speaker 1: it at four and a half on open, now down

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Speaker 1: to three. Of course, we're talking about Chiefs Titans. What

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Speaker 1: are you doing with this monstrosity?

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Speaker 2: We are backing the Titans. I look to try to

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Speaker 2: out the Titans T shirt for today, but guess what,

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Speaker 2: I don't have any Titans clothing items. There's gonna trust

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Speaker 2: me on this one. Titans money line plus one forty

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Speaker 2: five home against the Chiefs. Man, life comes at you fast.

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Speaker 2: We are backing the two and twelve Titans against the

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Speaker 2: mighty Chiefs in a December game. A week ago, I

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Speaker 2: would not have believed this out of thought. Throw the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs into the pick six, easy one. Don't need to

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Speaker 2: worry about it. But look, the Titans are kind of playing,

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Speaker 2: not horribly more bad than awful cam Ward. Pretty solid

290
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Speaker 2: season for rookie number one. Defensive line starting to gel,

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Speaker 2: finally coming together with Callahan down a stretch. Tony Pollard

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Speaker 2: has run well the last couple of weeks if you'll

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Speaker 2: get just like the last six weeks for the Titans.

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Speaker 2: They got blown out by Jacksonville, but they won in Cleveland.

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Speaker 2: That's not nothing, and they're pretty competitive against the Chargers, Texans, Seahawks,

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Speaker 2: and Niners. Look that's the teams we just said. The

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Speaker 2: Steelers are losing to by double digits, and the Titans

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Speaker 2: are actually hanging in closer in these games. Their past

299
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Speaker 2: defense is terrible, but Jeffrey Simmons and to Andandre sweat

300
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Speaker 2: the two tackles. They've been as good as any tackle

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Speaker 2: peer in the league. And they've made a great run defense.

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Speaker 2: So you need to pass to beat them. Well, quess what.

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Speaker 2: Kansas City has lost their passer, Patrick Mahomes unfortunately already surgery.

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Speaker 2: We talked about how he's eliminated now six weeks earlier

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Speaker 2: than he ever has before Gardner Minshew season. Now, So

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Speaker 2: this line was ten and a half Sunday morning, you

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Speaker 2: mentioned it. It was four and a half once Mahomes

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Speaker 2: got hurt. It's now down to three. That's why I'm

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Speaker 2: just going straight for the kill, right to the money line.

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Speaker 2: I think, really should they like how far do you

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Speaker 2: drop the Chiefs from ten and a half to how

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Speaker 2: far without Mahomes? And I just think I'm willing to

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Speaker 2: bet on this not being enough. Really, that's the play is.

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Speaker 2: I think it's not enough. This is the team that's

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Speaker 2: had the target on their backs every game for seven years.

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Speaker 2: They're every team's super Bowl and I think that they

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Speaker 2: are exhausted and it's over. The season is over. And

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Speaker 2: I don't think that when you come out here and

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Speaker 2: you're playing where they've never had a game like this.

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Speaker 2: They had a game like it last year Week eighteen

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Speaker 2: that didn't matter, and guess what they lost like one

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Speaker 2: thousand to zero against the Broncos in that game. They

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Speaker 2: if you're Chris Jones, if you're Travis Kelce, those guys

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Speaker 2: are gonna give you full effort this game and a

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Speaker 2: game that doesn't matter eliminated. I don't really see it.

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Speaker 2: Are the coaches gonna call their best plays? Is the

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Speaker 2: defense gonna push? We've seen defenses kind of give up

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Speaker 2: in spots like this. I just think the knock on

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Speaker 2: effects of the loss of belief is gonna matter here.

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Speaker 2: And Minshew so much. Not Mahomes, not just as a

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Speaker 2: thrower to hurt the pass defense, but that offensive line

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Speaker 2: missing all their top four tackles now Am still looks

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Speaker 2: like Tray Smith at guard. Mahomes is so good and

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Speaker 2: navigating the pocket, scrambling, keeping plays alive. We saw for

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Speaker 2: years with Aaron Rodgers, not anymore how Aaron Rodgers elevated

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Speaker 2: the line play, how much better they were with him.

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Speaker 2: I think we're about to find out just how bad

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Speaker 2: this line is when there's a human quarterback back. They're

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Speaker 2: not Mahomes anymore. I think they're gonna have to run

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Speaker 2: the ball more to protect Minshew. That's not good against

341
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Speaker 2: a good run defense. Those receivers haven't been reliable. Guess

342
00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,400
Speaker 2: what they're gonna be worse with Gardner Minshew. So this

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Speaker 2: is just a bet against the Chiefs, whoever it is

344
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Speaker 2: and whoever happens to be called the Titans this week.

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Speaker 2: The Titans don't need a tank, They've got their quarterback.

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Speaker 2: In fact, they probably want to win. You want to

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Speaker 2: develop culture, you want to develop your quarterback. You want

348
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Speaker 2: to save your coaching staff's jobs. They've already fired one

349
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Speaker 2: guy this year. The rest of the guys would like

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Speaker 2: to stick around. And look, if you're the Titans, this

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Speaker 2: is still the Chiefs. This still counts. You still get

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Speaker 2: to beat the Chiefs in December. You care about this one.

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Speaker 2: I like the Titans plus one forty five, and I

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00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,160
Speaker 2: do have a kind of related escalator. But I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: let your respond to the Titans pick first.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree on the favorites. We put our

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Speaker 1: parlay together this morning, Titans money line in there, so

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Speaker 1: we are all Tennessee fans at the moment. I'll give

359
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Speaker 1: you some stats on the quarterbacks, Gardner Minshew. Since the

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Speaker 1: start of last season, fifty nine qbs have had at

361
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Speaker 1: least one hundred plays a quarterback. Vinshew's six point two

362
00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:10,240
Speaker 1: average depth of target is a third lowest behind Dylan

363
00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:14,840
Speaker 1: Gabriel and dtr So that is the perspective of passing

364
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Speaker 1: it downfield and then on the other side, some of

365
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Speaker 1: the things I kind of like about cam ward red

366
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Speaker 1: zone this year, he's actually twenty seven of forty sixty

367
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Speaker 1: eight percent, nine touchdowns, one pick, one hundred passer rating.

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Speaker 1: So if we believe Tennessee can move the ball and

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Speaker 1: get into that area, those are some good numbers that

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Speaker 1: I like. And also it's been mentioned by Stuckey, It's

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Speaker 1: been mentioned by other people. Tennessee home road is pretty drastic,

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Speaker 1: especially when you look at cam Ward twelve points higher

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Speaker 1: passer rating, nine percentage points higher completion percentage at home

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Speaker 1: versus road. So to me, all pointing towards Tennessee and

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Speaker 1: again forget the number, I think you're right when you

376
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Speaker 1: get to this low, just hit the money line.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So if the Titans win the game, then that

378
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,879
Speaker 2: leads me a kind of a roundabout way ticket to

379
00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,439
Speaker 2: something that my gears started turning on on our Sunday

380
00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,160
Speaker 2: Nay recap. We said, you know, what are the things

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00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 2: that come out of the Chiefs here they happen to

382
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,480
Speaker 2: play the Titans and the Raiders coming up. Couldn't that

383
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,199
Speaker 2: impact the number one pick? Well, the Gears kept moving

384
00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,320
Speaker 2: and I got to my extra point in six my

385
00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:15,359
Speaker 2: article this week, and maxer point is this Browns worst

386
00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,160
Speaker 2: record in the league. It's twenty two to one right now.

387
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Speaker 2: So here's the setup. The Titans, Giants and Raiders are

388
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Speaker 2: two and twelve. The Browns are one game back, one

389
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:26,200
Speaker 2: game ahead, however you want to frame it, They've got

390
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Speaker 2: one more win. So we need Browns to lose out.

391
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,600
Speaker 2: We need Titans, Giants Raiders to win at least one.

392
00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:34,840
Speaker 2: If that happens, the Browns get the number one pick. Well,

393
00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:37,720
Speaker 2: here's the setup. The Titans play the Chiefs in this

394
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 2: game we think they can win, and the Chiefs still

395
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,399
Speaker 2: play the Raiders in week eighteen. Maybe the Raiders can

396
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,880
Speaker 2: win under a similar premise. We back on Raiders here,

397
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,040
Speaker 2: but look, the Chiefs don't have a lot to offer

398
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Speaker 2: right now, and next week Raiders Giants play each other.

399
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:56,199
Speaker 2: Someone has to win that game. So now you have

400
00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 2: winnable games on the schedule. The Giants have three games

401
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,320
Speaker 2: against all eliminated teams. I know Raybaunds on the Giants

402
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:04,920
Speaker 2: this week against the Vikings. Maybe that's a win for them.

403
00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 2: They have their quarterback, they can win some games. The Browns,

404
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:10,480
Speaker 2: I don't really need to tell you why they're gonna

405
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,840
Speaker 2: lose games. They're worse than offense in the league, worst

406
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 2: special teams in the league. Tidaris anders picking Advanced metrics.

407
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,120
Speaker 2: He's last like it's it's not good. Let's just say

408
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:21,360
Speaker 2: the Browns don't have their quarterback. They need to lose

409
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 2: some games and get the high pick. And also importantly,

410
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:28,440
Speaker 2: the defense is slipped from like elite to really good.

411
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,920
Speaker 2: And that doesn't always matter, but if your offense and

412
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,479
Speaker 2: special teams are worse in the league, that matters. So

413
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,440
Speaker 2: I think they lose out. You need one win each

414
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 2: from Giants, Raiders, Titans. I know this sounds crazy, but

415
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 2: Titans win this game. We just talked about Giants win

416
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,120
Speaker 2: this week, and then the Raiders beat the Giants next week.

417
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,400
Speaker 2: Suddenly the Browns are in control for number one pick

418
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 2: at FTN. They have the Browns twenty percent for number one,

419
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 2: second highest of any team. We're getting twenty two to

420
00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,320
Speaker 2: one for worst record, and I will add a caveat

421
00:19:57,680 --> 00:19:59,679
Speaker 2: worst record and number one pick are not quite the

422
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 2: same thing. We could get a Browns number one pick

423
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,199
Speaker 2: and still have to like tie on worst record with

424
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:07,280
Speaker 2: two or three, you know, a couple other teams, and

425
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 2: we're still gonna like split our bet. You gotta split payout,

426
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 2: But twenty two to one, we've got some wiggle room

427
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,400
Speaker 2: there to still enjoy the split, So fade the Browns

428
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:17,439
Speaker 2: kind of. This is a way to invest in the

429
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:21,719
Speaker 2: Titans as an escalator. Brown's twenty to one worst record

430
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 2: in the NFL.

431
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 1: Yes, for any baseball fans out there, I think this

432
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 1: is the perfect Tungsten o'doyle, which is basically Miles Garrett

433
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:31,520
Speaker 1: breaks the sack record and they end up with the

434
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,360
Speaker 1: worst record and number one pick, like the best thing

435
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:36,480
Speaker 1: on one side and the absolute worst thing on the other.

436
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,160
Speaker 4: That seems utterly impossible, but I think you're right.

437
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,400
Speaker 1: The Giants could easily even beat the Vikings this week,

438
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 1: which would completely go down your path here. So Titans, Giants,

439
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,680
Speaker 1: they've got the opportunity. So I like where you're headed.

440
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,200
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to what seems to be our

441
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,919
Speaker 1: favorite bet on the board every single week, and the

442
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 1: thing that cashed your tickets last week.

443
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 4: I couldn't imagine. What are you doing with Buffalo and Cleveland.

444
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, same thing last week. Let's run it back, skip

445
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 2: the first half, play the second half, Bill second half

446
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 2: minus four At the Browns, I honestly thought, like, oh man,

447
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 2: the Bills are what ten and a half now? On

448
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 2: the full game. I thought, surely they'll put this like

449
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:14,880
Speaker 2: six or seven and they'll have taken our bed away.

450
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 2: But no, they've loaded that up in the first half

451
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 2: and ignored all the trends that we are betting on here.

452
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,199
Speaker 2: So yeah, let's run it back full game line I

453
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 2: think a little too high. I'd probably make this closer

454
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:25,720
Speaker 2: to a touchdown, So I don't want the whole game

455
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 2: twenty mile an hour, looking wins below freezing totally like forty.

456
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 2: This looks like a mess like this screams. Just get

457
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 2: the win and get out of here, and it might

458
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 2: be ugly along the way. Browns defense a lot better

459
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 2: at home. Bill's just way worse on the road. They've

460
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 2: been almost a five hundred team on the road for

461
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 2: like three seasons running. Their offense is much more league

462
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 2: average than elite, so I wouldn't be surprised at all

463
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 2: if they get another one of those slow starts. We

464
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 2: just saw that last week. Three and eleven ats in

465
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 2: the first half for Buffalo. The Browns actually have a

466
00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:58,919
Speaker 2: winning ats rucker in the first half, but second half

467
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 2: that's when it all changes. Buffalo ten and four ats,

468
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 2: Brown's four and ten ats the exact opposite. And that's

469
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 2: been the Josh Allen store year after year. Now eighty

470
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 2: one forty and three ats for his career, sixty seven

471
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 2: percent cover rate, two out of every three. I think

472
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 2: Cleveland's run defense can kind of keep Buffalo and the

473
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 2: Sites maybe for a while. Maybe Queen Shawn Judskins runs

474
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 2: on them a little bit. We know how bad Buffalos

475
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 2: run Dea is. Eventually though eventually we know it's going

476
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 2: to happen in this game. The Bills are better, They're

477
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 2: going to come out ahead. And it kind of works

478
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 2: either way either their head anyway, they win the first

479
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 2: half finally, and then we just run and protect the lead.

480
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 2: We don't need to worry about Shadur on the back

481
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 2: door here, that's not really the concern. Or either you

482
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 2: are struggling and it's a close game, we're even trailing,

483
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 2: and now you love the bet. Now you just need

484
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 2: Josh Allen to hit the gas like we know he can.

485
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 2: Bill's defense much better with the lead. That makes sense.

486
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 2: That's forcing you to pass. They don't want you to run,

487
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 2: So as soon as the Browns fall behind in this game,

488
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 2: that just gets worse and worse from there. I think

489
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 2: Buffalo will find a few explodes. So I think they'll

490
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 2: find a way. So rather than do the full game

491
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:09,360
Speaker 2: way under the ten, the seven, skip all the key numbers,

492
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,719
Speaker 2: Bill second half minus four at the Browns, no alts,

493
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 2: no extra plays, just Bill second half.

494
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 4: This week.

495
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 1: The thing that surprised me, and I guess it probably

496
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 1: shouldn't have, is how good Buffalo has been in the

497
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 1: third quarter, even how bad the first half has been.

498
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 4: Third quarter.

499
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 1: They're nine and five this year, thirteen and seven last year,

500
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,879
Speaker 1: eleven and eight the year before, thirty three and twenty

501
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 1: against the spread third quarter last three seasons, so right

502
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 1: out of the locker room, no matter what the score is,

503
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,400
Speaker 1: they seem to play pretty well. You mentioned second half,

504
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 1: the one I like better as a favorite of over

505
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 1: a touchdown full game seven and a half for more,

506
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 1: Josh is also twenty five and thirteen second half, So

507
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 1: forget the spread. Don't even worry about that given the situation.

508
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 1: He's just as good, which.

509
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,360
Speaker 4: Is kind of exactly what you want to see here.

510
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 1: My thought is, I think Cleveland could even be winning

511
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 1: in the first half. Like, if you wanted to mess

512
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 1: with a Cleveland halftime Buffalo full time, I wouldn't blame you.

513
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 4: It's an interesting situation.

514
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind that. I don't have enough faith

515
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 2: in Cleveland to really want to invest in them, So yeah,

516
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 2: I think the line is pretty high. I don't mind

517
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 2: them just hanging around. I don't like Cleveland and I look,

518
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 2: I literally just bet them to win worst record like

519
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 2: three seconds before this, So I think it's first half

520
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 2: Cleveland or nothing if I'm going to play something with

521
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 2: first half, but I'll just stick with Buffalo second half.

522
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 2: And you know, so you can't be aggressive in every

523
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 2: single bet sometimes just want to get a win and

524
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 2: get to the next one. So we're trying to get

525
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:28,959
Speaker 2: the win here, correct.

526
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I also agree with Jenkins, like I think

527
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,360
Speaker 1: you could score a touchdown. I think there's opportunities there.

528
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 1: Buffalo's rush defense, like you said, it's just ridiculously horrible.

529
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 1: Let's go to that Vikings in Giants game. You're playing

530
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 1: a very similar situation here, So what are you doing.

531
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 2: I am. I'm doing the exact same play Vikings second

532
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 2: half minus one and a half here, So again get

533
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,400
Speaker 2: under the number minus three. This kind of my eye

534
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,440
Speaker 2: early because it's hard to get away from Vikings. I

535
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 2: liked them last week against Dallas. I didn't trust my gut,

536
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 2: didn't play them, and they obviously got the win there.

537
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 2: Just the Vikings are just a little bit better. The

538
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 2: Vikings are not an awful team. The Giants are much

539
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 2: closer in that direction. Minnesota is still top ten defense

540
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 2: DVA on the season. They're missing some guys now. Grenard

541
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 2: is out, Matellus is out for the season, but there's

542
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,479
Speaker 2: still a good defense that's the best unit on the field,

543
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 2: and Minnesotas run the ball pretty well lately. Last six weeks.

544
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:24,160
Speaker 2: They're now a top ten DVA rushing offense. That line

545
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 2: you never quite know who's going to be healthy or play,

546
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 2: but we know how bad the Giants run defense is.

547
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 2: So Minnesota playing defense, Minnesota running the football. That sounds

548
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 2: like a pretty good formula for a wain, and especially

549
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 2: a good way to win in the second half. You

550
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 2: get Jackson Dart against all the Brian Flores pressure. We

551
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 2: know how rookie quarterbacks can struggle in that sort of situation.

552
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,360
Speaker 2: So why second half? So Vikings minus three, we want

553
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 2: to skip the minus three. I don't really need to

554
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 2: invest in the Vikings at the key number. And I'll

555
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 2: be honest as a Vikings fan, Vikings Giants is like

556
00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 2: cold chills down my spine. This is not exactly a match.

557
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 2: I enjoy it. But if you're a Vikings fan, there's

558
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 2: like twelve teams like that in the NFL, so you

559
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 2: can't just not bet any of those. But I think

560
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 2: either the Vikings run it up and you get to

561
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 2: run on the bad defense in the second half protecting

562
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 2: your lead. That sounds good to me, or again you

563
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 2: get the comeback push, so similar case with the Bills.

564
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 2: And then why second half? Giants are way better offensively

565
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 2: early in the game. You're number four DVA in the

566
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: first quarter. They've really got those scripted plays early. The

567
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 2: Vikings they've been hit or miss. Some days it's good,

568
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 2: some it's not so good. And the Giants defense is

569
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 2: worse in the league. In the fourth quarter. We've seen

570
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 2: that a few times. Right, they gave up like one

571
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 2: hundred points in the Broncos loss and a few others

572
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 2: in there. Giants first half winning record ATS Vikings five

573
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 2: and nine, Giants second half four and ten, ats tied

574
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 2: for worse in the league, Vikings nine and five. So

575
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 2: skip the first half, just the second half. This one,

576
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 2: I'd be a little more open to the thing we

577
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 2: just talked about with Brown's bills and kind of saying, Okay,

578
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 2: maybe Giants early, Vikings comeback something like that. I don't

579
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 2: mind investing a bit more both ways here. But the

580
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,919
Speaker 2: play for me Vikings second half minus one and a half,

581
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 2: it's plus one oh five at the Giants.

582
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 1: The way I might play it is, I might just

583
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 1: wait to see if the Giants take the lead early

584
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 1: and then just jump on Minnesota full game.

585
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 4: Like rather because let's spread.

586
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 1: You're right, the spread is super tight, and that probably

587
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 1: would I would assume the odds on that aren't spectacular

588
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 1: compared to like Cleveland winning the first half, which is kind.

589
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 4: Of why right yah, thinking about it.

590
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 1: But the thing that also, I'll give you one staff

591
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 1: before we can move on, and it goes exactly to

592
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 1: your storyline, which is first half, second half. In the

593
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 1: first half, Jackson dark one oh two passer rating, eight touchdowns,

594
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 1: one pick, second half, he's down to an eighty three

595
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:48,679
Speaker 1: passer rating difference than nineteen points, which is honestly incredible

596
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 1: half to half. So something is definitely going on there.

597
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 1: And then you talk about the bullets on defense with Minnesota.

598
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 1: I think that's something that can get to them later

599
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 1: in the game. So I agree, and I like it,

600
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 1: and I do think the Giants could start with you know, touchdown,

601
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 1: you know, first or second drive, and then you try

602
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 1: to make some adjustments. So I am all over it.

603
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 1: All right, one more best bet here before we head

604
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 1: to the lightning round. We're talking Chargers and Cowboys. To me,

605
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 1: this one is a little bit difficult. I was trying

606
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,159
Speaker 1: to handicap this one earlier in the week. Look for

607
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 1: some notes, some ideas, some stats. This one is really

608
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 1: tight and there's some key angles here. But how are

609
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:24,640
Speaker 1: you taking Chargers Cowboys?

610
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 2: Yeah? We could all these games together because I'm taking

611
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 2: one more second half angle here. I'm gonna take the

612
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 2: under in just the second half. It's under twenty four

613
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 2: and a half, so let me get there. So Dallas

614
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 2: obviously out of the playoffs. Now we just mentioned with

615
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 2: the Vikings game, will they even show up like like

616
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 2: there's a chance Dallas just mails this one in and

617
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 2: that's how we hit the under. And that's a pretty

618
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 2: easy decision if that's the case. If Dallas shows though,

619
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 2: like you said, pretty interesting matchup, very strength on strength,

620
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 2: weakness on weakness. So you get Dallas offense, Chargers defense,

621
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 2: in particular, Dallas's passing game, that's the thing we know

622
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 2: they do especially well well. Their run game had been

623
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 2: quite good with Clayton Adams, but it's falling off a

624
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 2: lot in the middle of the season. I think that's

625
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 2: a problem here because the Chargers can be run on,

626
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 2: but their pass defense is top five d DVA. So

627
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 2: Cowboys offensive line fading a little bit. They don't run

628
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 2: that well on the light boxes they're going to see here.

629
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 2: We went Pickens escalator last week. Pickens is lost right now,

630
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 2: and I don't think he's going to get long passes here.

631
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 2: Actually looked at under longest catches for Pickens, but his

632
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 2: numbers are marked way down for this week. I just

633
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 2: think Dallas could have a hard time getting their to

634
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 2: their offense here consistently. And I know Dallas at home

635
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 2: scary scary thing because we know how good they are scoring,

636
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 2: especially early in games. That's again why we're looking at

637
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 2: second half here. Dallas defensively, that's the weakness on weakness here.

638
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 2: We talked a lot about, Oh, Dallas, they did the

639
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 2: trade for Quinn and Williams. The defense is better now, eh,

640
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 2: still bottom five pass defense. Their run defense is a

641
00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 2: little bit better, like they're they're probably like an average

642
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 2: no longer bad run defense. Well, the Chargers offense is

643
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 2: terrible right now, bottom five dvway over the last six weeks,

644
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 2: bottom ten running, bottom ten passing. Their offensive line is

645
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 2: shot like they got nothing there. They're playing all backups basically,

646
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 2: and Herbert just can't get anything going. And Dallas actually

647
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 2: does rush the passer a little bit as well. So

648
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 2: I just see a spot where both offensive lines are

649
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 2: not in great shape, and I could see the Chargers

650
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 2: if they get ahead here. That's the sort of script

651
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 2: where the Chargers take the lead and they just kind

652
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 2: of shut it down and run the clock out in

653
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 2: the second half. We've seen Harbaugh do that a lot.

654
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 2: And Harbaugh and Herbert usually good against under five hundred

655
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 2: teams ats, Dak usually not good against over five hundred

656
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 2: teams ATS. So I would lean Chargers if I was

657
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 2: picking a side. I'm not. I want the under, but

658
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 2: I'm terrified of the full game under Dallas first half

659
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 2: overs thirteen and a one on the season. I want

660
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 2: no part of stepping in front of that train. So

661
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 2: just get rid of the first half. Gave me the

662
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 2: second half, second half under twenty four and a half,

663
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 2: and then I'm gonna give you a prop on this

664
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 2: one too, as it kind of transitions into our lightning round.

665
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 2: I think this is a justin Herbert running game. He

666
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 2: already has a career high in rushes and yards. Even

667
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 2: with three games left, He's averaging thirty yards a game

668
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 2: on the ground. That's almost double his career. He's had

669
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 2: nineteen rushing yards or more in seventy one percent of

670
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 2: his games ten out of fourteen. He's at fifty seven

671
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 2: yards in four of the last ten. Dallas. We know

672
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 2: you play your fantasy quarterbacks against the Cowboys, Well it's

673
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 2: true for rushing too. They allow the most touchdowns and

674
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 2: fourth most yards rushing to quarterbacks twenty three yards are

675
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 2: more over half of their games. So Herbert over thirteen

676
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 2: and a half rushing yards. That's it. He could do

677
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 2: that with one good scramble and he has often this season,

678
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 2: and then a little escalator thirty rushing yards plus three

679
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 2: seventy five fifty rushing yards fourteen to one. Again, he's

680
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 2: done that for the last eight so that I think

681
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 2: is a really bad number for a guy that's going

682
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 2: to be under pressure, have to do some things on

683
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 2: his own. And if you want to play the anytime

684
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 2: touchdown as well, only one this year for Herbert, but

685
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 2: fourteen in his career. Dallas has allowed seven rushing touchdowns

686
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks, including half of their last six games. It's

687
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 2: six to one at draftings for anytime touchdown. I like

688
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 2: the yards best. We don't want a lot of scoring here,

689
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 2: of course, since we have the second half under, but

690
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 2: I think Herbert should run and I don't think we're

691
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 2: going to get a lot of scoring in the second half.

692
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 2: So second half under twenty four and a half, Herbert

693
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 2: over thirteen and a half rushing yards, and then the

694
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 2: escalator from there.

695
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll take the for the under part first. So

696
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 1: the thing that struck me was fourth quarter is the

697
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 1: only Dallas quarter that is above five hundred to the under.

698
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 1: First quarter they're eight and six, second quarter they're eleven

699
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 1: and three. Third quarter there eight and six. That's twenty

700
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 1: seven and fifteen combined. So found that kind of intriguing.

701
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 1: And then you're completely right with the Herbert stuff. Even

702
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 1: last week where he really didn't rush at all. You

703
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 1: kind of have to look at Dallas's defense. Only five

704
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 1: teams in the NFL have allowed more scrambles than Dallas's defense,

705
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 1: and Dallas's defense second, the NFL in avoided sacks, so basically,

706
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 1: get in there, quarterback, gets out of it and starts

707
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 1: rolling around. So I think there's actually going to be

708
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 1: plenty of opportunities for him to get Yardagan Honestly, I

709
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 1: was completely wrong. A few weeks ago, he has the

710
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 1: hand injury. He's out there smashing into the hand and

711
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 1: getting as many yards as he can, so that is

712
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 1: not in his way. So I was very scared off,

713
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 1: but I definitely shouldn't be based off of what we've seen.

714
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 1: So Herbert rushing yards at thirteen and a half does

715
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 1: seem kind of well, all right, let's keep rolling here.

716
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 1: We have now the lightning round see the lightning round

717
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 1: the counder you were going to start with, Honestly, the

718
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 1: game of the week that no one can see Jaguars Broncos.

719
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 4: What are you doing?

720
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Jaggs Broncos. I bet Denver on the

721
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 2: hot read minus two and a half. It hit the

722
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 2: key number already on Sunday at three. It's stuck right

723
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 2: there though, So I'm actually gonna come back on the

724
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 2: other side a little bit here. I'm gonna play a

725
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 2: Jacksonville first quarter and some kind of escalators from there,

726
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 2: So let me get the setup. Denver, of course, beats

727
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 2: the Packers last week. One of the big games of

728
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 2: the week, Jacksonville. They spoiled my Jets pick real good.

729
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 2: That one was over in a hurry. Jacksonville blew out

730
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 2: the Jets. So the line hasn't moved a lot because

731
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,919
Speaker 2: suddenly the Jags are red hot. Top three DVA last

732
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:31,399
Speaker 2: six weeks. Defense looks amazing, top five against the run,

733
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 2: in the pass. The rushing offense that we thought was

734
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:37,720
Speaker 2: looking good early, that's a Liam Collen staple that's gone away.

735
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 2: That's not what's hot right now. They're thirtieth running. They're

736
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 2: top five passing, though, So do I trust that? Do

737
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 2: I believe in those metrics DVA? Why I like about

738
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 2: it is it takes opponent strength to schedule into effect.

739
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 2: So it says, Okay, who are you beating? Are you

740
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:58,320
Speaker 2: just running bad teams off the map? The Jets, the Titans,

741
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 2: that's who. Two of these Jacksonville's wins are. They played Arizona.

742
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 2: They only won by field goaling overtime. That's not impressive

743
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 2: to me because we've seen Arizona getting crushed in some

744
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 2: of these games recently. The big wins and why these

745
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,319
Speaker 2: metrics are looking so good for Jacksonville. They beat the

746
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 2: Colts and they beat the Chargers by a ton of

747
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,759
Speaker 2: points in both of those games, and like the last

748
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 2: month or so, well, we know what that means. These

749
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 2: are not your old Chargers or Colts anymore. These are

750
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 2: very different teams that DVA is not really counting for.

751
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 2: Oh oh, no Daniel Jones anymore in this game. Oh

752
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 2: I see the tackles are her. We're kind of falling apart. Oh,

753
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 2: Chargers lost their offensive line. None of that is really

754
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 2: being factored in. So the Jags, they're starting to earn

755
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 2: a little respect for me. They are in the one

756
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:47,319
Speaker 2: seed race. That's why this game matters here. But I

757
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 2: still think these are kind of different weight classes. I

758
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 2: think Denver is just a little bit better at everything.

759
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 2: Both defenses I trust a little bit more than the

760
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 2: offenses here. I don't know if I'm ready yet to

761
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 2: say Jacksonville can score on this Denver. I mentioned their

762
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 2: run game fading. Lawrence has not been great against pressure.

763
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 2: I don't really trust their line yet. And we know

764
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 2: Denver is gonna get after you, so I still like Denver.

765
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 2: I don't think it's gonna be easy. I'm not sure

766
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 2: it's going to be early either. We've talked about this.

767
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 2: Denver's twelve wins all but one have come from behind

768
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 2: on the season. Broncos second half nine to five ats,

769
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: but sub five hundred in the first half. They just

770
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 2: don't show up early. First quarter DVOA on defense below

771
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 2: league average eighteenth, bottom of five on offense, then after

772
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 2: that the top ten offense the rest of the game.

773
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 2: For whatever reason, the scripted stuff both ways is not

774
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 2: going for Denver. Here's their last six first quarters. Down

775
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 2: oh three, last week, down seven. The week before, we

776
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:48,919
Speaker 2: got a six to three and a three to zero lead,

777
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,359
Speaker 2: we got a tie, seven to seven. That's the one

778
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:54,760
Speaker 2: time that was the Raiders game when they didn't actually

779
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 2: have to come from behind. We got another three They're

780
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 2: averaging two point seven points a game in those six games.

781
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 2: They only won the first sorry in those six first quarters, obviously,

782
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:08,879
Speaker 2: they only led on two of them. Jacksonville top five

783
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 2: offense in the first quarter. I think their script is working.

784
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 2: Liam Cohen's script is working. Their nine to five ats

785
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 2: in the first half. So give me Jacksonville first quarter.

786
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the money line plus one ten. So

787
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 2: we've got to get the win. Here. There's a plus

788
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 2: a half out there at minus one forty. I'm not

789
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 2: paying fifty cents in case I get a tie, like

790
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 2: I'm not. If you're that uncertain about the bet, you

791
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:35,880
Speaker 2: should just skip the bet. So give me the plus

792
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 2: one ten. We still get our money back on a

793
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 2: money line tie anyways. And then there's a little mini

794
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 2: escalator if you want the comeback win. If Jacksonville is

795
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 2: winning the first quarter but you still like Denver. That's

796
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 2: where I'm at on this plus one seventy at DraftKings

797
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 2: for a Denver win from behind. Again, that's all about

798
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 2: one of Denver's wins. And then if you want to

799
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 2: just put the whole thing together, Jacksonville first quarter, Denver

800
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:04,399
Speaker 2: four game plus three sixty five at DraftKings, and that's

801
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 2: really your kind of threatening the needle. Jacksonville's got a

802
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 2: lead early and then you've got three quarters for Denver

803
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 2: to come back and take the lead. And look, Jacksonville

804
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 2: doesn't even need to lead big early. Remember last week

805
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:18,799
Speaker 2: we did Patriots bills and we're like, okay, Patriots first half. Hey, whoa,

806
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,399
Speaker 2: whoa whoa twenty one nothing, slow down, We need some

807
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 2: bills stock here. It'd be great if Jacksonville could just

808
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:26,799
Speaker 2: be like three nothing in the first quarter. How about that?

809
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 2: How about stop at three nothing and let Denver go

810
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 2: from there. That's what I'm holding four in the bad here,

811
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 2: So Jags first quarter, and I still think Denver sets

812
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:37,839
Speaker 2: up well. So I'm not backing off the hot rate here.

813
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,320
Speaker 2: I just think it could be a slow start for Denver.

814
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:41,760
Speaker 2: That's what they've been doing all season.

815
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 1: Everything kind of matches what you said last four seasons.

816
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:47,879
Speaker 1: Jags above five hundred ats in the first quarter all

817
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:48,879
Speaker 1: four seasons.

818
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:49,280
Speaker 4: Denver.

819
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 1: Honestly, this kind of surprised me. Three and four first

820
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 1: quarter ats at home this year, two and six first

821
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 1: quarter at home last year. So really not been consistent

822
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 1: starting games FI and then this one kind of blew

823
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 1: me away. So boon nicks in the first quarter this

824
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 1: year three touchdowns, two picks, and a seventy eight passer

825
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:11,760
Speaker 1: rating of twenty seven quarterbacks with fifty plus pass attempts

826
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: in the first quarter, he is last in passer rating

827
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 1: twenty seven quarterbacks.

828
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 4: So I mean when you say starting slow, all the

829
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 4: numbers back it up. And that's where we're going with

830
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 4: this one. So I mean, you.

831
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:25,280
Speaker 1: Did it last week with New England and Buffalo. Let's

832
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 1: just repeat. Let's do it again with Jacksonville and Denver.

833
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:31,280
Speaker 1: All right, let's keep rolling here. Now you're talking this game.

834
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:33,880
Speaker 1: I mean, I think we've already seen you know, we

835
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 1: got two of these left. But Tampa Carolina. I mean,

836
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 1: when you look at the matchup and you look at

837
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 1: how each of these players have done against each other,

838
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,399
Speaker 1: since we've seen so many of these matchups, one thing

839
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 1: stands out and you found it.

840
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Mike Evans season. You want Mike Evans against

841
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 2: the Panthers. He's back, he looked good. So important game, obviously,

842
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 2: I mean relatively if you're an NFC syleth fan, it's

843
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:58,879
Speaker 2: a really important game. If you're a fan of real

844
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:00,879
Speaker 2: football is just finding out which team we're gonna bet

845
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 2: against in the first round. But the Panthers probably gotta

846
00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:06,799
Speaker 2: sweep the box now standing in Carolina is away very

847
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 2: funny former Panthers quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and then Sam Darnold

848
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 2: next week in between, so that's what's coming. This is

849
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 2: another game that sets up as a first half, second

850
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 2: half thing. I'm not gonna play it because I don't

851
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 2: really trust either of these teams right now. But Carolina

852
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 2: are really bad in the first half, where the Bucks

853
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 2: have a winning ats record and then flip that in

854
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 2: the second half. So if you want to do a

855
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:29,399
Speaker 2: first half second half, we got a lot of those

856
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 2: this week. This one sets up that way as well.

857
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,360
Speaker 2: I kind of wanted it blocks here, but my numbers

858
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 2: don't agree with me. My numbers actually make Carolina favored.

859
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: So I just don't trust either team right now. Bucks

860
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 2: passing defense is falling away off the run defense is

861
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:47,399
Speaker 2: looking a little shaky. Carolina the thing that has been

862
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 2: good lately is they're passing. I'm not betting on Bryce

863
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 2: Young like, I'm not really trusting that right now, So

864
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 2: back to old faithful. Just give me Mike Evans last

865
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 2: week back with a vengeance six catches one to thirty

866
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 2: two on twelve targets. Kind of thought they'd ease him in.

867
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 2: Apparently not, Like that's just wide receiver one and then

868
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 2: some My guy wants to keep a thousand yard streak going.

869
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 2: He's got a long ways to go, but we'll be

870
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 2: in good chipe bee does it? Panthers bottom three DVOA

871
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 2: against wide receiver one. That sure looks like Evans. You

872
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 2: mentioned it. Last ten games for Evans against Carolina seven

873
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 2: catches one hundred and seven yards a game on eleven targets,

874
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 2: eleven touchdowns. In those ten games, he's at at least

875
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 2: one score seven of the ten, multiple scores in three

876
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 2: of those. He's at least seventy seven yards all but

877
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 2: one of those ten games in Carolina from Week five forward,

878
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 2: so last ten games for them, they've allowed the opposing

879
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:44,319
Speaker 2: top wide receiver touchdown threat is what I'm calling it,

880
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 2: eight touchdowns in those ten games, so seven dudes, one

881
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 2: of them got two. Those guys are averaging ninety three

882
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,919
Speaker 2: yards a game the ones that score touchdown as well.

883
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 2: So how are you betting it? Mike Evans? Touchdown? That's

884
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 2: what you bet for Mike Evans plus one five. Please,

885
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 2: that's a terrible number. Evans. Here's what I love. I'm

886
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:07,959
Speaker 2: gonna give you some yards as well. But we don't

887
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 2: even need to have a huge amount of snaps for

888
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:12,399
Speaker 2: Evans to get the touchdown. He only played fifty five

889
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 2: percent snaps last week. He's got extra rest now. I

890
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 2: think he'll play a little bit more. But we can

891
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 2: just get some red zone production and still get the touchdown.

892
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 2: That's you know, Chris Carter Vikings, all he does is

893
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 2: catch touchdowns. Berman used to say that about him. I

894
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 2: think Mike Evans is the new version of that. All

895
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 2: he does is catch touchdowns. He's gonna be a Hall

896
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 2: of Famer for all the touchdowns. Two touchdowns is thirteen

897
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:34,959
Speaker 2: to one. Gotta play that as well because he keeps

898
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 2: doing that in his career. A little bit on the yards,

899
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 2: but I'll play more in the touchdowns. Fifty five and

900
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 2: a half. Give me the over on that. He's over

901
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:45,959
Speaker 2: in eight of his last ten healthy games, and those

902
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 2: touchdown receivers against Carolina mentioned ninety three yards per game.

903
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:52,359
Speaker 2: Evans in those last ten games, eighty nine yards are

904
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 2: better in eight out of ten, so a little escalator

905
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 2: in ninety yards plus three twenty. Remember he hit that

906
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:01,320
Speaker 2: one last week, So no touchdown last week. My man's thirsty.

907
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 2: He needs some touchdowns. The Panthers are the perfect antidote.

908
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 2: So Mike Evans give me a touchdown or two.

909
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, there are two underlying factors why. I also like this.

910
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 1: It's gonna be sixty degrees virtually no wind, so with

911
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:15,720
Speaker 1: that situation, game temperature should be perfect. And I honestly

912
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: kind of like the fact that Baker's been really terrible lately,

913
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 1: like truly bad, because I feel like that means he

914
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 1: might be forcing it to Mike Evans. No, like I

915
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,439
Speaker 1: honestly because the thing that always scares me about Tamba Bay.

916
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,640
Speaker 1: They've got a million guys like and you know, and

917
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: especially getting McMillan back, And I don't know, I don't

918
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 1: know what the status of aughten is. But either way,

919
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 1: there's a lot of people in that game that potentially

920
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 1: takes away fantasy things ear or there. Mike Evans in

921
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 1: this situation, I feel like one that Mike trumpet and

922
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,279
Speaker 1: might be good. So I like that angle, and those

923
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 1: are the two angles I would take on this one

924
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 1: as well. All right, let's keep rolling here. We got

925
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 1: two more left before we get to the look ahead

926
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 1: Bengals and Dolphins. I mean when I say best bet circus,

927
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 1: this is what I was referring to Brandon, take it away,

928
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 1: because you got a bunch here.

929
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:02,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, we got the whole three ring circus for this one.

930
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:05,479
Speaker 2: This somehow became like my favorite game of the week

931
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 2: to bet. So both teams are out, so we don't

932
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:10,760
Speaker 2: need to necessarily do a side here. We get quinn

933
00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 2: Ewers starting in for Tua. I mentioned I still took

934
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:18,479
Speaker 2: Miami money line as part of the Christmas pick six.

935
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 2: Here is plus one eighty five. I just can't get

936
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 2: anywhere near the Bengals being four and a half point favorites.

937
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:26,720
Speaker 2: I would honestly still buy my numbers. I have Miami

938
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 2: favored in this game, so I have to be able

939
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 2: to play Miami. They've been, by the numbers, the far

940
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 2: better team lately. The Bengals offense not even really that

941
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:37,800
Speaker 2: great since Burrow got back. They were better with Flacco

942
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 2: by a lot of the numbers. We don't know if

943
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:42,359
Speaker 2: we're getting t Higgins in this game. Bengals offense worse

944
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 2: on the road, Miami's is better at home. So if

945
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:48,839
Speaker 2: Chase and Burrow do what they should, they should light

946
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:52,320
Speaker 2: this defense up. So that's why I'm gonna stay away again.

947
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:55,280
Speaker 2: I don't mind the Miami plus twenty eighty five money line,

948
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:57,280
Speaker 2: but I kind of just think this is a shootout.

949
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:59,799
Speaker 2: So if I don't really want to play either team,

950
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 2: who really knows if the Bengals or Dolphins show up,

951
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 2: let me just play some overs for a shootout. So

952
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 2: I've got three for you, and probably they won't surprise you.

953
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:12,399
Speaker 2: Concerning the Bengals are involved. First, one a chan, give

954
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 2: me some a chan stock. We tried it on Monday night.

955
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 2: We tried for the big rushing yards. He got a

956
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 2: lot of yards, just not all rushing. Sixty yards rushing,

957
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 2: but sixty seven receiving on six catches and not spend

958
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 2: the eight chan thing this year is a very dual threat.

959
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 2: Eight games now with five catches or more. Well, we

960
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 2: know the Bengals are awful, awful, awful awful defensively number

961
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 2: one most running back fantasy points, including number one most

962
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 2: receiving points two fantasy running backs. I think you use

963
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,879
Speaker 2: a chan to protect your new quarterback. You either run

964
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:45,920
Speaker 2: with him or you dump it off to him. Just

965
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 2: get in the ball, let him do his thing. So

966
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:51,239
Speaker 2: we're going to combined yards here. Most books you can

967
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:55,160
Speaker 2: bet rushing plus receiving yards. That's what I want. Last

968
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 2: four games for a chan here's his combined yards one

969
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:01,959
Speaker 2: twenty seven on Monday night before that, one thirty four,

970
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 2: one sixty five, and two twenty five average one hundred

971
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 2: and sixty three combined yards per game. He is a workhorse.

972
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 2: He's the guy you want in fantasy right now. He's

973
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 2: put out huge numbers. We need just one hundred and twenty.

974
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 2: One hundred and twenty combined yards is even odds at

975
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 2: DraftKings and then some escalator play one p fifty at

976
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:23,920
Speaker 2: plus two seventy seven. He's done that three of his

977
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 2: last eight healthy games. Again, one fifty combined yards rushing

978
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 2: plus receiving and then all the way to the top.

979
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:34,240
Speaker 2: Two hundred combined is about fifteen to one. Two hundred

980
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 2: and thirty is the highest I've found. That's forty three

981
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:39,600
Speaker 2: to one. He does have two games of two twenty

982
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:41,959
Speaker 2: five combined yards. One of them was a month ago,

983
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 2: so we're probably gonna need a couple long ones. But

984
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,040
Speaker 2: it's the Bengals and it's a chan so we like

985
00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:49,880
Speaker 2: to set up there. One more Dolphins prop and then

986
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:51,840
Speaker 2: I'll let you kind of interject you before I do

987
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:55,320
Speaker 2: a Bengals prop. If it's the Bengals, we're playing tight ends.

988
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:57,560
Speaker 2: Come on, you play your tight end against the Bengals.

989
00:46:57,600 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 2: You don't even need me to tell you that. At

990
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:02,839
Speaker 2: this point. I know we're betting on quinn Ewers again here,

991
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:05,919
Speaker 2: But quarterbacks who don't know what they're doing yet love

992
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 2: the tight end. You love the dump off to your

993
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 2: tight end. And I love Darren Waller scoring touchdowns. Six

994
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:14,680
Speaker 2: healthy games this year, six touchdowns, even though he's not

995
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 2: even playing half the snaps. Here's the Bengals. If you

996
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 2: could play fantasy football and have drafted Bengals opposing tight end,

997
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 2: that would literally be like the number one pick in fantasy.

998
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 2: Here's the line for the season. Ninety nine catches, twelve

999
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy six yards, and fifteen touchdowns. That's what

1000
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 2: Bengals opposing tight end quote unquote has put up like

1001
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 2: an all time tight end season. Fifteen touchdowns just to

1002
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:44,479
Speaker 2: tight ends. We expect scoring. We like to shootout. Gotta

1003
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 2: play a Waller touchdown. I don't really care who's throwing

1004
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:48,800
Speaker 2: to him. It's not like two is that good anyway,

1005
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:52,440
Speaker 2: It's plus three twenty five for a Waller touchdown and

1006
00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:55,239
Speaker 2: twenty five to one for two. I gotta play both

1007
00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 2: of those. So, ah, Chan and Waller for the Dolphins.

1008
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:00,719
Speaker 2: I've got one on the bank. But what do you

1009
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:01,959
Speaker 2: think about my Dolphins?

1010
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 4: I like them both.

1011
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 1: So I'll start with a Chan first, and I'll you

1012
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 1: know the good and the bad. The good he's got

1013
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 1: one hundred plus rush and receiving yards in eight straight

1014
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:12,880
Speaker 1: home games, so in this type of situation, feels like

1015
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:15,439
Speaker 1: the right play in the right spot. Obviously, last week

1016
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh and.

1017
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:17,360
Speaker 4: The Colt not so much.

1018
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 1: The eight Chan stats without Tua a little alarming, but

1019
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:23,839
Speaker 1: that's something you should have to get over here. If

1020
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 1: you're gonna believe in Miami and believe in Quinnywers, this

1021
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 1: is the play to make. And then you you and

1022
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 1: I think alike. And that's why I love doing this

1023
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:33,719
Speaker 1: pod because I had the same stats up here with

1024
00:48:33,920 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 1: tight ends versus Cincinnati.

1025
00:48:36,120 --> 00:48:37,719
Speaker 4: But this is the best one when you look at

1026
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 4: just receiving yards this year. Number one is.

1027
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:43,840
Speaker 1: Jackson Smith Nijigba at fifteen forty one, number two, Nikua

1028
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:47,839
Speaker 1: thirteen sixty seven, and then it's every it's tight ends

1029
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 1: versus Cincinnati at about twelve seventy twelve eighty, depending on

1030
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 1: how you look at it. So that's how they'd be

1031
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:56,319
Speaker 1: third in receiving yards this year if you took all

1032
00:48:56,360 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 1: of them together. Absolutely ridiculous. And yeah, I mean at

1033
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 1: some point you're going to get a bit of a

1034
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:04,880
Speaker 1: dip up and down. But we just saw Waller catch

1035
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:08,719
Speaker 1: two last week. So obviously the red zone threat. Obviously

1036
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 1: the way they're going to go and talk about a

1037
00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 1: rookie QB in his first start, how about a really

1038
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:16,879
Speaker 1: tall tight end who has tons of experience, who's great

1039
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 1: in the red zone and you need a blanket.

1040
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 4: It makes sense to me. So what are you doing

1041
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 4: here with Cincinnati?

1042
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 2: Yeah? Cincinnati. So look, if I think Miami can actually

1043
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 2: hang around in this game or even have a lead,

1044
00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 2: then now you've got Cincinnati passing, which they're going to

1045
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 2: be doing anyways, let's be honest, and I think I

1046
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 2: like Chase Brown to catch a lot of passes for them.

1047
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:37,399
Speaker 2: We've played this a couple different times. He's had six

1048
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 2: or more receptions and half of the last ten games now,

1049
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 2: he's had seven or more catches four of the last ten.

1050
00:49:43,160 --> 00:49:46,560
Speaker 2: Miami is sixth most in receptions two running backs. On

1051
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 2: the season, they've had five running backs catch or sorry,

1052
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:52,279
Speaker 2: four running back catch five or more, including last week

1053
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 2: Monday Night. We just watched it Kenny Gainwell catching all

1054
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 2: sorts of passes. He had seven Steelers running backs had

1055
00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 2: ten catches just in that game. So if we do

1056
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:03,520
Speaker 2: get negative game script here for the Bengals, that helps

1057
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 2: we get lots of quick little dump offs there. I

1058
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:07,839
Speaker 2: just think Chase Brown is a good chance to catch

1059
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:11,399
Speaker 2: some passes. So just a quick little receptions escalator. I'll

1060
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 2: split my bat between six and seven, so six catches

1061
00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:17,360
Speaker 2: plus three fifty seven is seven to one. Maybe a

1062
00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 2: little touch on eight catches at thirteen to one. He

1063
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 2: did do that once already this season, So nothing too

1064
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:25,840
Speaker 2: fancy there. Just hopefully, Yeah, prefer t Higgins out for

1065
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 2: this one, just because there's more catches to go around

1066
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 2: that way. But I'll like it already either way. Chase

1067
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 2: Brown receptions escalator.

1068
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of parlay pieces here. I think you

1069
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:36,320
Speaker 1: can probably combine some of these together. It looks like

1070
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:38,480
Speaker 1: Higgins probably not going to play, so that will just

1071
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 1: go into your favor and probably into your favor in

1072
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:43,840
Speaker 1: terms of Burrows targets in liking Miami and getting some

1073
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 1: offense as well. All Right, that is Bengals Dolphins. We've

1074
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 1: probably definitely spent enough time here. Let's go to the

1075
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 1: last one before our look ahead Sunday Night Football. You

1076
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:56,399
Speaker 1: already talked about this a little bit in your pick six,

1077
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:58,880
Speaker 1: but what else are you doing with Patriots Ravens.

1078
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I really this is a really fascinating game for

1079
00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 2: me with the Patriots and the Ravens, two teams that

1080
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:07,760
Speaker 2: I think are both a little bit overrated in the market.

1081
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:09,960
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna have a Patriots angle here and then

1082
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:13,320
Speaker 2: just one more for the road, my no name prop

1083
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:14,880
Speaker 2: of the week that we'll get to you. So let

1084
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:17,880
Speaker 2: me start with the Patriots. So there's seventeenth in DVA

1085
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 2: on the season. Seventeenth means you were below league average

1086
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:24,120
Speaker 2: for a team that has maybe the MVP still that

1087
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:26,480
Speaker 2: is still in the running for the one seed. They're

1088
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 2: just not quite what we have expected by their record

1089
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 2: even like last six games, still pretty much average for

1090
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:36,400
Speaker 2: the season. The Ravens, they're about the same thing. I

1091
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:37,840
Speaker 2: think it might be time to give up the ghost

1092
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:39,760
Speaker 2: on pretending the Ravens are going to be the Ravens

1093
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 2: again the season. They really haven't been at any point

1094
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 2: since at least September. They're fifteenth in DVA, so they're

1095
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:49,360
Speaker 2: actually ahead of New England, but basically again league average average, offense,

1096
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:52,600
Speaker 2: average defense. Lately, the defense is a little better, the

1097
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,279
Speaker 2: offense a getting worse, even with Lamar Jackson back. Their

1098
00:51:55,320 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 2: bottom five passing DVA last six weeks. So I just

1099
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:02,600
Speaker 2: don't really love either of these teams. Both teams have

1100
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 2: a better run defense than passing, so it's kind of

1101
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:07,759
Speaker 2: on the quarterback though. Patriots run defense has really not

1102
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:10,960
Speaker 2: been great without Milton Williams, so that's a little scary.

1103
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 2: Maybe Baltimore can run. They like to go heavy. Patriots

1104
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:17,360
Speaker 2: are not as good heavy, but Baltimore does allow a

1105
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 2: lot of explosives. Patriots should be able to hit down

1106
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:22,440
Speaker 2: the field, and Baltimore has been worse at home to

1107
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:25,280
Speaker 2: you a little bit. Probably that's Lamar Jackson missing time

1108
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 2: in some home games. But Lamar's just not right right now.

1109
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 2: And in a game where I think it just comes

1110
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:34,480
Speaker 2: down to who can pass better, it's hard to believe it.

1111
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 2: But like you picked Drake May every time right now,

1112
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:39,320
Speaker 2: the way that these quarterbacks are playing, the way they look,

1113
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:42,319
Speaker 2: that's not even Lamar slander. He's not healthy and May

1114
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:45,080
Speaker 2: is just clearly the better quarterback right now. So here's

1115
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:47,239
Speaker 2: how I'm gonna play it. We know Lamar in his

1116
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:50,880
Speaker 2: career is a first half guy, sixty three percent ATS

1117
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:55,320
Speaker 2: coming into the season this year four and seven ATS

1118
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:58,400
Speaker 2: in the first half. He has not been good. Baltimore

1119
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:01,240
Speaker 2: bottom ten offense in the first half on the season.

1120
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:05,520
Speaker 2: The Patriots, we just did it last week. First half team.

1121
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:08,960
Speaker 2: They are eleven and three ATS in the first half.

1122
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 2: They're the number two offense by Dvoa. They come out

1123
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 2: strong and Mike Rabel you like him as a big underdog,

1124
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:19,279
Speaker 2: as a dog of three or more winning records straight

1125
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 2: up twenty two and twenty sixty five percent ROI on

1126
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 2: the money line. But the money line's like plus one thirty.

1127
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:28,799
Speaker 2: So all that work to say, Oh, okay, I guess just

1128
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 2: Patriots with a little bit of extra juice for our trouble. Well,

1129
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:35,440
Speaker 2: if I like the Patriots, I'm gonna like them early,

1130
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna want them to hang on to the lead,

1131
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:41,640
Speaker 2: not play from behind as much, because the Ravens offense

1132
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:45,360
Speaker 2: has been pretty good with the lead actually, but quite

1133
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:48,319
Speaker 2: bad without it. They're a front running team, and that

1134
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 2: makes sense if you think about what they do well

1135
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:52,880
Speaker 2: and don't do all. Right, now, so I want Patriots

1136
00:53:52,960 --> 00:53:56,080
Speaker 2: first half, but I want Patriots full game too. So

1137
00:53:56,200 --> 00:54:00,439
Speaker 2: Patriots halftime full time is plus two forty. You play

1138
00:54:00,480 --> 00:54:04,120
Speaker 2: them both together and unlike last week, let's keep the

1139
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:07,239
Speaker 2: lead now twenty one nothing, keep a roll, and just

1140
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:11,799
Speaker 2: pile on the points. Maybe this may be a Drake

1141
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:14,399
Speaker 2: may MVP. Bet. We'll see what happens with the game

1142
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 2: tonight and where Stafford and the Rams end up. That

1143
00:54:17,239 --> 00:54:19,879
Speaker 2: might be a way to invest in the Patriots as well.

1144
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 2: This is probably the last chance because then it's Jets

1145
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:24,920
Speaker 2: and Dolphins after that. This is the spot Sunday night

1146
00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:27,879
Speaker 2: when we're all watching to go get the one big game.

1147
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:30,520
Speaker 2: Maybe that's the play. I can't give that now because

1148
00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:33,480
Speaker 2: we don't know where Stafford is at. So Patriots halftime

1149
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:36,760
Speaker 2: Patriots full time plus two forty.

1150
00:54:36,880 --> 00:54:39,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get it. And you know, a lot of

1151
00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:41,960
Speaker 1: difference of opinions here. I've heard some Ravens this week.

1152
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:44,640
Speaker 1: I've heard some Patriots. So in terms of the handicap itself,

1153
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:46,799
Speaker 1: I think everyone kind of has their own opinion. But

1154
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:48,880
Speaker 1: if you look at it from New England standpoint and

1155
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:51,719
Speaker 1: the bets that you've made, I mean, listen, Baltimore is

1156
00:54:51,840 --> 00:54:55,120
Speaker 1: two and twelve first half team total over this year,

1157
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:58,239
Speaker 1: worse than the NFL, worse than the Raiders. That is

1158
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:02,120
Speaker 1: honestly unbelievable with the games that Lamar has played. And

1159
00:55:02,160 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 1: then this one, this one kind of surprised me. And

1160
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 1: this is the trumper here.

1161
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:09,839
Speaker 4: Vrabel in his career forty nine and fourteen full game

1162
00:55:09,880 --> 00:55:12,080
Speaker 4: straight up, when he leads at the half, that makes sense.

1163
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:15,000
Speaker 4: When he's an underdog full game and he leads at

1164
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:16,080
Speaker 4: the half, he's.

1165
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:16,759
Speaker 2: Twenty and ten.

1166
00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:19,719
Speaker 1: So that is a guy who is an underdog during

1167
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:22,560
Speaker 1: the game, leading at the half and keeping his foot

1168
00:55:22,560 --> 00:55:25,600
Speaker 1: on the pedal, super super impressive. And we know the stats.

1169
00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:27,960
Speaker 1: He mentioned it about how good he is full game

1170
00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:30,640
Speaker 1: as a dog, but that to me kind of trumps it.

1171
00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:33,839
Speaker 1: Ten games above five hundred guys holding on. So I

1172
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:35,600
Speaker 1: do like New England if they can get the lead.

1173
00:55:36,239 --> 00:55:38,480
Speaker 2: All right, let me give you my final prop here

1174
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:41,319
Speaker 2: before our look ahead. I'm going with the guy that

1175
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:43,600
Speaker 2: I'll be honest, I knew almost nothing about like a

1176
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:46,440
Speaker 2: month ago, and then I'm watching last week watching the

1177
00:55:46,520 --> 00:55:49,800
Speaker 2: Ravens get the shutout, and I see Rashen Ali catching

1178
00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:52,799
Speaker 2: a thirty yard pass for a touchdown. And here we are,

1179
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:57,240
Speaker 2: give me Rashen Ali receptions escalator. So this is a

1180
00:55:57,400 --> 00:56:01,000
Speaker 2: Ravens running back. Derrick Henry is the guy there. I

1181
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:04,319
Speaker 2: think Derrick Henry might finally finally be slowing down. He's

1182
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:07,120
Speaker 2: only played eighty two snaps the last three games, forty

1183
00:56:07,160 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 2: five percent snap rate for him, So that's what kiye.

1184
00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 2: Where are the snaps going? Well? Keith Mitchell gets like

1185
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 2: ten of them a game. Ravens fans would love that

1186
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:18,400
Speaker 2: to double or triple, but it's not happening yet. Just

1187
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:21,359
Speaker 2: as Hill was getting like fifteen or twenty snaps, he's

1188
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:25,120
Speaker 2: on ir Now. I think Rasheen Ali is replacement for

1189
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:28,719
Speaker 2: Justice Hill, which means he's the third down back. Last

1190
00:56:28,719 --> 00:56:32,719
Speaker 2: three games for Ali twenty nine, twenty seven and eleven snaps.

1191
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:35,800
Speaker 2: Now eleven is last week, but they're head twenty four nothing.

1192
00:56:36,239 --> 00:56:38,680
Speaker 2: He's the third down back, he's the pass catching guy.

1193
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 2: You don't play that guy a lot when you're hyed

1194
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:42,879
Speaker 2: by a lot. You're just trying to run the clock out.

1195
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:46,720
Speaker 2: But that three games stretch most recently, that's only fifteen

1196
00:56:46,760 --> 00:56:49,359
Speaker 2: snaps less than Derrick Henry, so five snaps a game

1197
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:51,680
Speaker 2: less than the guy that we know is the workhorse.

1198
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:53,480
Speaker 2: And I think Ali is going to be out there,

1199
00:56:53,520 --> 00:56:56,799
Speaker 2: especially we like the script here. If the Patriots are

1200
00:56:56,840 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 2: ahead early, that sets up a Ravens pass script, and

1201
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:04,360
Speaker 2: their snaps have been unpreticable. Rashina Ali actually led the

1202
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:07,720
Speaker 2: Ravens running backs in snaps in one of these recent weeks.

1203
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:11,920
Speaker 2: So the Patriots weird split on the season, second fewest

1204
00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 2: fantasy points allowed, but third most receptions allowed to running backs.

1205
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:19,880
Speaker 2: They've allowed six running back receptions and over half their

1206
00:57:19,920 --> 00:57:23,360
Speaker 2: games this season, including eight, nine to nine, and eleven.

1207
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:28,480
Speaker 2: So could we meet marshall sophomore Rasheina Ali on Sunday night.

1208
00:57:28,840 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 2: We don't have to pay much to find out two receptions.

1209
00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 2: That's what I want. Just two two catches, which is

1210
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:38,800
Speaker 2: done twice in the last month, plus one fifty five

1211
00:57:39,320 --> 00:57:41,960
Speaker 2: and then we're taking the escalator three catches for Rashina

1212
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 2: Ali plus four fifty four for eleven to one. And

1213
00:57:45,680 --> 00:57:47,880
Speaker 2: then last week had a thirty yard catch. I mentioned,

1214
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:51,560
Speaker 2: thirty yards are more plus eight fifty and forty yards

1215
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:53,640
Speaker 2: are more fifteen to one. Those are the highest lines

1216
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:56,480
Speaker 2: I can find. I think there's a world where if

1217
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:59,280
Speaker 2: the Ravens actually are trailing, he could catch like five

1218
00:57:59,360 --> 00:58:01,520
Speaker 2: six passes. Even I can't even bet numbers that are

1219
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 2: high enough there. I haven't found them out there. So

1220
00:58:04,520 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 2: we just want to get two three catches. Get some

1221
00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:09,919
Speaker 2: catches out there, maybe bust a bit of a longer one.

1222
00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:11,760
Speaker 2: But I think Rashin Ali is going to be on

1223
00:58:11,800 --> 00:58:14,000
Speaker 2: the field a lot more than Ravens fans prefer, to

1224
00:58:14,040 --> 00:58:16,480
Speaker 2: be honest, but we prefer him to catch a couple

1225
00:58:16,560 --> 00:58:18,880
Speaker 2: passes while he's out there. And he's our no name

1226
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:20,360
Speaker 2: guy of the week, not a tight end this week.

1227
00:58:20,440 --> 00:58:22,960
Speaker 2: But well we'll take a four string running back instead,

1228
00:58:23,000 --> 00:58:24,439
Speaker 2: I guess yeah.

1229
00:58:24,480 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 1: I mean, but you're right, like Raven's last two games,

1230
00:58:27,120 --> 00:58:29,440
Speaker 1: in terms of routes, he's got more than Keaton Mitchell,

1231
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 1: more than Derrek Henry. Guy has twenty six routes in

1232
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:34,160
Speaker 1: their last two games. I mean that that is a

1233
00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:36,760
Speaker 1: ton when you're talking about trying to get just two receptions,

1234
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:39,000
Speaker 1: especially if you think the Ravens are going to be

1235
00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 1: trailing in this one, which kind of goes with your

1236
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:44,360
Speaker 1: game script. All right, let's keep rolling here the look

1237
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:49,680
Speaker 1: ahead to week seventeen, two weeks to go. Let's look ahead.

1238
00:58:49,920 --> 00:58:51,960
Speaker 4: Just give a shot. How about next week?

1239
00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:59,200
Speaker 2: I got my mind set, my mind sat. Yeah, so

1240
00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 2: we're going to Saturday and we're sticking back with the Ravens.

1241
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:04,080
Speaker 2: We just talked about it. I'm going to fade the

1242
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:08,080
Speaker 2: Ravens again next week by taking Packers minus three in

1243
00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:10,760
Speaker 2: Green Bay against the Ravens. It's the Saturday night game.

1244
00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:13,640
Speaker 2: And this really is not even about the matchup or

1245
00:59:13,680 --> 00:59:16,680
Speaker 2: the Packers. This is about a weird scheduling quirk. So

1246
00:59:17,280 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 2: if Pittsburgh loses to Detroit we started with that one,

1247
00:59:20,360 --> 00:59:24,360
Speaker 2: we expect that to happen. And if Baltimore wins Sunday night,

1248
00:59:24,440 --> 00:59:27,080
Speaker 2: I know, we just bet against that snaiar happening, but

1249
00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:29,680
Speaker 2: we admitted it's a pretty coin flippy sort of game.

1250
00:59:30,000 --> 00:59:33,360
Speaker 2: If the Ravens win and the Steelers lose, Week seventeen

1251
00:59:33,440 --> 00:59:37,120
Speaker 2: is meaningless for both games, like one hundred percent nothing.

1252
00:59:37,520 --> 00:59:40,840
Speaker 2: The entire thing comes down to Week eighteen in Pittsburgh.

1253
00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:44,640
Speaker 2: So if that happens, guess what the Ravens bye week was,

1254
00:59:44,680 --> 00:59:48,880
Speaker 2: Week seven. They so badly could use the second bye week,

1255
00:59:48,960 --> 00:59:51,960
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson a week off, Derrick Henry an extra week

1256
00:59:52,000 --> 00:59:55,120
Speaker 2: before a huge game, Cal Hamilton, Ronnie Stanley like, I

1257
00:59:55,160 --> 00:59:57,840
Speaker 2: can't believe that those guys would just play a full

1258
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:00,480
Speaker 2: roster out there for a meaningless game. I think there's

1259
01:00:00,520 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 2: a chance baltimately we could get like a Week eighteen

1260
01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:06,560
Speaker 2: type scenario where they're just like, hey, we're basically in

1261
01:00:06,600 --> 01:00:09,120
Speaker 2: a playoff game next week against Pittsburgh. Let's just bench

1262
01:00:09,160 --> 01:00:12,640
Speaker 2: everybody and try it again next week. So look, I

1263
01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 2: don't really want to invest a lot in the Packers

1264
01:00:14,800 --> 01:00:17,120
Speaker 2: with Parsons out. We talked a lot about that, but

1265
01:00:17,440 --> 01:00:20,080
Speaker 2: the game definitely matters for them. Either they beat the

1266
01:00:20,080 --> 01:00:22,439
Speaker 2: Bears Saturday and then they're playing for the division here,

1267
01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:24,400
Speaker 2: or they lose the Bears and they got to win

1268
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:26,200
Speaker 2: to make the playoffs. So they're going to try in

1269
01:00:26,240 --> 01:00:28,280
Speaker 2: this game, and I think, similar we just said with

1270
01:00:28,320 --> 01:00:31,040
Speaker 2: the Patriots, pick the quarterback you like, and I like

1271
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:33,640
Speaker 2: Jordan Love better than Lamar Jackson right now. So even

1272
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 2: if the Ravens do show up in this game and

1273
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:38,720
Speaker 2: have to try, I still like the Packers. I make

1274
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:41,960
Speaker 2: it minus four. We get the key number here. If

1275
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:45,160
Speaker 2: some of these guys sit, especially Lamar Jackson, we're looking

1276
01:00:45,200 --> 01:00:47,720
Speaker 2: at like seven ten, Like who knows what the number

1277
01:00:47,760 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 2: will be in that case, So trying to get out

1278
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:52,000
Speaker 2: of head. We can either win this the easy way

1279
01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:54,320
Speaker 2: if everybody sits, or I still like it the hard

1280
01:00:54,360 --> 01:00:57,680
Speaker 2: way too, So get out of head. Packers minus three

1281
01:00:57,720 --> 01:01:01,600
Speaker 2: and a little bonus. Look, the game doesn't matter for Baltimore.

1282
01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:05,360
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter for Pittsburgh either. The Steelers play the

1283
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:09,080
Speaker 2: Browns next week. The Browns don't really want to win either,

1284
01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:11,560
Speaker 2: but the Steelers would actually kind of prefer to lose

1285
01:01:11,560 --> 01:01:14,960
Speaker 2: that game and hurt the Browns draft position theoretically. So

1286
01:01:15,040 --> 01:01:17,840
Speaker 2: a little extra nibble and a rare escalator on the

1287
01:01:17,880 --> 01:01:22,400
Speaker 2: look ahead. Packers minus three, Brown's money line on the

1288
01:01:22,440 --> 01:01:26,200
Speaker 2: parlay on the just get every starter out here Pittsburgh

1289
01:01:26,200 --> 01:01:30,360
Speaker 2: and Baltimore plus four oh seven. These are correlated results

1290
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:33,000
Speaker 2: because they correlate to results that we think might happen

1291
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:36,760
Speaker 2: this weekend. We play it for next week. Packers, Brown's

1292
01:01:37,120 --> 01:01:39,200
Speaker 2: money line parlay four oh seven.

1293
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:40,040
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1294
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:42,000
Speaker 1: The fun thing about that is it doesn't matter if

1295
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:43,520
Speaker 1: you have that other twenty two to one bet. If

1296
01:01:43,520 --> 01:01:45,680
Speaker 1: Cleveland loses this week, you're rooting for them to lose

1297
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:47,919
Speaker 1: to get the first pick, and you can be hitting

1298
01:01:47,960 --> 01:01:50,160
Speaker 1: your parlay as well, so a little bit of both sides.

1299
01:01:50,280 --> 01:01:52,400
Speaker 1: You have no idea what Cleveland's bringing to the table,

1300
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:54,840
Speaker 1: especially if Miles doesn't get the record this week, so

1301
01:01:55,320 --> 01:01:58,520
Speaker 1: we will see how it goes, all right, that'll do

1302
01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:01,040
Speaker 1: it here on the Action Ework podcast for our NFL

1303
01:02:01,200 --> 01:02:04,840
Speaker 1: Week sixteen Best Bets episode presented by DraftKings. If you

1304
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 1: want instant notifications when action experts track their bets, let's

1305
01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:10,840
Speaker 1: go to actionerwork dot com slash pro use a promo

1306
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:13,600
Speaker 1: code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off a year of

1307
01:02:13,680 --> 01:02:16,120
Speaker 1: action Pro. If you haven't yet check out our new

1308
01:02:16,160 --> 01:02:19,200
Speaker 1: AI quick Slip Bot on x, just tag Playbook at

1309
01:02:19,240 --> 01:02:21,680
Speaker 1: playbook tell it to grab whatever bet you're looking for

1310
01:02:21,840 --> 01:02:24,080
Speaker 1: and it'll create a quicklip link for you in a

1311
01:02:24,200 --> 01:02:26,680
Speaker 1: matter of seconds. And again, if you want to tell

1312
01:02:26,680 --> 01:02:28,440
Speaker 1: some of the bets we gave out today, make sure

1313
01:02:28,440 --> 01:02:30,120
Speaker 1: to look for the quick slip link in the podcast

1314
01:02:30,120 --> 01:02:31,000
Speaker 1: and video description.

1315
01:02:31,360 --> 01:02:33,840
Speaker 4: Go to actionwork dot com slash Bet now.

1316
01:02:34,040 --> 01:02:37,040
Speaker 1: We will be back Sunday night for our NFL recap

1317
01:02:37,080 --> 01:02:40,640
Speaker 1: show that'll be live on Action URS YouTube page shortly after.

1318
01:02:41,160 --> 01:02:45,080
Speaker 1: Ravens and Patriots thank you for listening, enjoy the Slate,

1319
01:02:45,320 --> 01:02:47,480
Speaker 1: good luck with all your bets this weekend, and cherish

1320
01:02:47,560 --> 01:02:48,040
Speaker 1: the Slate.

1321
01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:48,360
Speaker 4: Three.

1322
01:02:48,440 --> 01:03:08,000
Speaker 3: Left Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1323
01:03:08,400 --> 01:03:11,200
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1324
01:03:11,520 --> 01:03:14,160
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1325
01:03:14,240 --> 01:03:15,040
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler