WEBVTT - Special Episode: Dr. Paul Offit & Tell Me When It’s Over 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:47.319 Hi, I'm Aaron Welsh and this is this podcast will 0:00:47.400 --> 0:00:50.600 Kill You. You are listening to the latest episode in 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:54.160 our tp w k Y book Club series, where we 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:57.960 chat with authors about their popular books in science and medicine. 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:03.760 We've gotten to have fantastic conversation so far, and there 0:01:03.800 --> 0:01:06.480 are so many more to come. If you'd like to 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:09.480 see the full list of books we've already covered and 0:01:09.680 --> 0:01:12.200 those that we'll be covering later this season as a 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:15.560 part of the series, check out our website this Podcast 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:17.800 will kill You dot Com, where you can find a 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:20.840 link to our bookshop dot org affiliate account. Under the 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:25.399 extras tab on our bookshop page, there are a bunch 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:31.000 of TPWKY lists featuring books we've read for our regular episodes. 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:34.800 Memoirs about Health and Disease, a list of fiction books 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:38.000 about disease. Should we do a book club on disease 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:41.440 themed novels? Is anyone out there a member of a 0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:44.160 book club on disease themed novels? Because that sounds like 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:47.680 so much fun? And also on our bookshop is of 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:50.520 course a book club list where you can find all 0:01:50.560 --> 0:01:53.240 of the books we're featuring in this and last season's 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:58.600 TPWKY book Club series. As always, we'd love to hear 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:01.920 from you about how you're in joying these episodes, whether 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:06.080 you have any book suggestions for future episodes, favorite episodes 0:02:06.080 --> 0:02:09.000 so far. Whatever your thoughts are, send them to us 0:02:09.120 --> 0:02:13.040 via the contact us form on our website. All right, 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:16.200 let's get into the book of the week. Doctor Paul 0:02:16.320 --> 0:02:20.000 Offitt joins us to discuss his recent book, Tell Me 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:24.320 When It's Over and Insider's Guide to Deciphering COVID myths 0:02:24.360 --> 0:02:28.640 and navigating our post pandemic world. Frequent listeners of the 0:02:28.680 --> 0:02:32.240 podcast are no doubt familiar with doctor off It's name. 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:35.400 We've mentioned a few of his previous books in some 0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:39.400 of our episodes, such as his book Vaccinated, One Man's 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:43.320 Quest to Defeat the World's Deadliest Diseases, which tells the 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:46.640 story of Maurice Hillman, who developed many of the most 0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:50.720 common vaccines in use today. Or maybe you've heard us 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:55.440 mention Deadly Choices, How the anti vaccine movement Threatens Us All, 0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:58.480 which takes readers through the history and rise of anti 0:02:58.600 --> 0:03:02.560 vaccine sentiment. And doctor Offitt is somewhat of a public 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:06.960 health celebrity, appearing on popular news programs championing the life 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:12.079 saving power of vaccines. Off Its titles and credentials are 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:17.000 almost too long to list. The Maurice Hillman, Professor of Vaccinology, 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:20.560 Professor of Pediatrics at the Pariland School of Medicine at 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:25.080 the University of Pennsylvania, Director of the Vaccine Education Center 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.560 at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, member of the FDA 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:34.160 Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, and so many others. 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:37.880 But perhaps one of his biggest accomplishments is as co 0:03:37.960 --> 0:03:42.080 inventor of a rotavirus vaccine, which has prevented hundreds of 0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:45.920 thousands of deaths around the world. Off It's passion for 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:49.760 communicating about the power and safety of vaccines, as well 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:53.960 as combating the miss and disinformation undermining public health efforts 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:57.720 takes shape in his newest book about the COVID pandemic. 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:02.360 In the aptly name Tell Me When It's Over, Afa 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:05.320 takes readers through what we have learned about the COVID 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:09.040 pandemic and stars COVID two, the virus at the center 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:12.800 of it all. He breaks down where this virus originated, 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:17.960 dismantles the lab leak conspiracy theory, discusses some of the 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:22.159 ways that the public lost confidence in US government institutions 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:27.080 during the pandemic. Explores this new flavor of anti vaccine 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:31.240 sentiment that took hold during COVID and which has really 0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:34.919 only grown since, and presents ways that we can fight 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:38.760 against the rise in anti science and regain public trust. 0:04:39.960 --> 0:04:44.800 The COVID pandemic revealed how we can accomplish incredible feats 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:49.400 by investing time and resources into public health, giving us 0:04:49.440 --> 0:04:53.960 a safe and effective vaccine in record speed, But it 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:57.159 also showed the gaps in our system, how myths and 0:04:57.240 --> 0:05:02.080 disinformation can quickly fill a knowledge foroid, and how crucial 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:05.120 it is to learn how to communicate our science to 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:09.359 the public, including when science doesn't know it all or 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:14.240 gets it wrong. COVID is here to stay, and unless 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:17.159 we do something about it, so is this rise in 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:21.680 anti science and anti vaccine sentiment. Let's get into this 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:50.560 interview right after this break, Doctor Offitt, I really can't 0:05:50.600 --> 0:05:54.000 express how excited I am to be chatting with you today. 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:57.680 You are a huge public health hero of mine and 0:05:57.800 --> 0:06:01.560 the incredible and impactful science can communication work that you do, 0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:04.440 especially when it comes to vaccines, and not to mention 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:08.719 your work on developing said life saving vaccines, it is 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:11.800 simply amazing. So thank you so much for being here. 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:13.919 Well, thanks for asking me. It's my pleasure. 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:17.159 Your latest book, Tell Me when it's over, covers the 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:20.560 COVID pandemic, getting to the root of some COVID myths, 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:24.280 explaining the vaccine, and it essentially acts as a guide 0:06:24.320 --> 0:06:26.320 for how we're supposed to get used to this post 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:29.440 pandemic world. How did you decide that you wanted to 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:30.280 write this book? 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:33.880 What was cathartic? I mean, I am you know, the 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:38.720 virus came into the US early twenty twenty. In April, 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:41.520 Francis Collins, who was then head of the NIH, asked 0:06:41.560 --> 0:06:45.480 me to be part of this public private partnership called 0:06:45.600 --> 0:06:52.000 active activ which stood for Accelerating COVID Technological Innovations and Vaccines, 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:55.080 and so you know, we were essentially advising pharmaceutical companies 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:59.919 on how best to test vaccines and potential law viral 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:04.400 and I'm on the FDA's Vaccine Advisory Committee, so I 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:07.479 really got to watch this up close. And in many 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:09.679 ways the book was cathartic. I don't know if you remember, 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:11.400 with the way it played out in twenty twenty. Aside 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:14.920 from having nothing right, we didn't have anti virals. To October, 0:07:14.920 --> 0:07:16.840 we didn't have monoclonals. Still in November, we didn't have 0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:20.920 vaccines stil December, so ate nothing other than avoiding human 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:25.840 to human contact. And then in April, the Trump administration 0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:29.640 was convinced that hydroxy cleric when was our ticket out right. 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:31.520 This was going to be the magic medicine that was 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:34.200 going to make it all go away. And so the 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:38.480 government bought almost thirty million doses of hydroxychloric WIN and 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:42.760 successfully twisted the arm of the FDA to authorize it 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:46.560 without any evidence that it worked, without any evidence that 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:49.760 it worked to either treat or prevent the disease. You 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:52.920 certainly already knew about the safety issues, which were potential 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:56.880 harder rhythms, and so they approved it, and that scared people. 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:59.080 It scared me, I wrote an op ed for The 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:02.520 New York Times, saying, fearing in October, surprise, here the 0:08:02.520 --> 0:08:07.040 Trump administration successfully twisted the arm of the FDA to 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:10.800 approve it drug that didn't necessarily work to treat it preventzies. 0:08:11.000 --> 0:08:13.800 That's their job, I mean, the job of the FDA 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:17.040 is stand to stand between pharmaceutical companies and the public 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:21.560 and protect the public. So now you know you're scared 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.120 about how the vaccine's going to play out, right, I mean, 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:28.600 the Trump pulled Stephen Hahn into his office and in 0:08:28.640 --> 0:08:32.600 an invective, Leyden Tirade said, I want this vaccine out 0:08:32.720 --> 0:08:36.040 before the election, which was the beginning of November. And 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:38.640 were that to be true, then you wouldn't have that 0:08:38.720 --> 0:08:41.000 two month safety follow up that you have for pretty 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:43.760 much every vaccine after the last nose, which wouldn't be 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:46.560 till December. So the Hans still to his credit, stood 0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:48.679 up to him put it on their website this is 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:51.000 what we're going to do. But people still didn't. Now 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:53.679 you've really had a critical loss of trust in the FDA. 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:57.720 Country after country, state after state stood up and said 0:08:57.720 --> 0:09:00.640 we're going to have our own vaccine advisor committees. Trust us. 0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:04.280 They didn't trust the Vaccine Advisory Committee. And so it 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:07.760 was a really turbulent time. And between that and a 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:10.760 number of what I think were communications errors, including not 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:13.440 trivia ones that occurred after that, I just this was 0:09:13.440 --> 0:09:15.719 a catharsis. I just had to get this book out. 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:18.240 I feel much better now, thank you for letting me 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:18.679 write it. 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:22.360 And as you began putting this book together and deciding 0:09:22.520 --> 0:09:26.360 what you wanted to include. How was your approach guided 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:30.360 by your intended audience and was that audience. Is your 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:33.160 audience for this book different than for past books that 0:09:33.200 --> 0:09:34.080 you've written. 0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:36.360 No, I think it's the same. I think it's the 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:38.280 same for all my books. I guess the audience will 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:41.400 desire that, but it's for a general audience. It's kind 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:46.520 of what happened because I think in many ways, the 0:09:46.520 --> 0:09:51.720 book is a story of two remarkable, contrasting things. One 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:54.520 is that we isolate a virus in January of twenty 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:57.320 twenty we sequence it so now you can potentially make 0:09:57.360 --> 0:10:01.360 a vaccine. It's an unusual virus, had an interesting sort 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:04.680 of biological and clinical characteristics. And then eleven months later, 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:08.440 using a technology a messenger RNA that we never used before, 0:10:08.520 --> 0:10:11.240 we had no experience with that technology. We're with the 0:10:11.320 --> 0:10:15.640 vector virus approach by Johnson and Johnson. You had two 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:18.600 large clinical trials and then the in February of twenty 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:20.600 twenty one, you had a large J and J. Johnson 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:24.559 and Johnson trial that showed that the vaccines were effective, 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:28.040 remarkably effective. And then over a period of six or 0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:32.360 seven months, we immunized seventy percent for the US population 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:34.520 a million people a day, two million people a day, 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:37.640 three million people a day. And then, and I think 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:42.320 that I think that was the most significant scientific and 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:45.960 medical accomplishment in my lifetime. And I'm old, so my 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:48.839 lifetime includes the development of the polio vaccine. I think 0:10:48.840 --> 0:10:51.760 it was amazing. Actually, then we hit a wall and 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:55.680 by mid twenty twenty one thirty percent of this country 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:58.800 did not want to get vaccinated. Ultimately, three hundred thousand 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:02.000 people lost their life because they didn't trust us. They 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:04.520 didn't trust the FDA, didn't trust the CDC, they didn't 0:11:04.520 --> 0:11:08.880 trust other public health agencies. Why what happened? How did 0:11:08.920 --> 0:11:11.559 we lose that trust? And I think that's why I 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:14.000 wrote the book What happened? How do we lose it? 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:15.240 And how can we get it back. 0:11:16.640 --> 0:11:19.280 Let's take a quick break here. We'll be back before 0:11:19.320 --> 0:11:39.080 you know it. Welcome back, everyone, I'm here chatting with 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:42.160 doctor Paul Offitt about his book. Tell me when it's over. 0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:45.920 Let's jump back into some questions. Like you said, you've 0:11:45.920 --> 0:11:48.320 been in the vaccine game for quite some time, and 0:11:48.360 --> 0:11:52.560 you've witnessed firsthand and have written and spoken a lot 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:56.120 about this rise in anti vaccine sentiment over the past 0:11:56.160 --> 0:12:00.600 few decades. But now post COVID and during cod we're 0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:05.880 seeing a drop in vaccine compliance rates unlike anything previously witnessed. 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:08.880 What do you think is unique about this decline and 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:13.079 why was COVID this perfect storm to grow anti vaccine 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:14.840 in anti science sentiment. 0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:18.079 Well, I would have imagined the opposite was true. I mean, 0:12:18.120 --> 0:12:21.400 typically what anti vaccine activists will say is, give me 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:24.640 a pandemic, then I get the idea of being vaccinated 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:28.560 or even mandating vaccinating vaccines. Give me, show me a pandemic. Well, 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:31.200 this was a pandemic. We had more than one point 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.840 one million people dying this country. People were dying right 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:35.240 in front of us. I think all of us at 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:39.200 least know someone who was at least seriously ill and died. 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:43.040 I mean, my aunt died of this virus. And so 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:44.760 you didn't have to convince people. I would think that 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:47.920 it was real and the vaccine clearly worked and it 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.680 was safe. It wasn't absolutely safe, but it was pretty 0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:54.240 darn safe, the mRNA vaccines. It was my caroditis within 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:57.680 four days of those two, which was generally self resolving 0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:00.440 and short lived. But in the scheme of things, considering 0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:02.840 it was a novel technology for a novel virus, we 0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:06.120 I never really saw the other shoe drop. So so 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:08.400 you had you had your ticket out of this pandemic, 0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:11.800 and nonetheless people rejecting. And I think the reason was 0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:15.920 because you're right. I think the anti vaccine movement is stronger. 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:18.839 They're better funded, and they're stronger, and I think it 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:22.560 all has to do with this, which is politics. I 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:26.280 think they're there. Although there's always a political implication for 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:31.040 vaccines because they require support, you know that they you're 0:13:31.080 --> 0:13:34.160 going anything I think that requires funding public funding is 0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:36.320 going to be political, but it doesn't have to be partisan. 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:40.160 But this was partisan, you know. On the left, anti 0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:42.720 vaccine activity was always you know, just don't inject me 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:45.559 with anything with a chemical name, you know, so which 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:47.720 is pretty much water of course has a chemical claim. 0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:50.920 And on the right it was this libertarian I don't 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:52.560 want the government to tell me what to do. That 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:56.960 is the current politics, which is federal government off my back. 0:13:57.480 --> 0:13:59.400 And and so that's where all the money came from. 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:01.760 Eric Trump at you know, Donald Trump's son stood up 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:04.080 at one of the brollies and said, if you don't 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:06.520 want to get a vaccine, know that the Republican Party 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:09.120 has your back, which is amazing because it was the 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:13.440 Trump administration that created this vaccine with Operation Warp Speed. 0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:18.320 And yet, if anything, Donald Trump distanced himself from arguably 0:14:18.360 --> 0:14:23.280 his greatest accomplishment. So they're they're very well funded, they're 0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:25.080 more active than ever, and I think that at the 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:28.480 heart of it is mandates. I think when we mandated 0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:32.080 that vaccine and people lost their jobs and people couldn't 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:33.360 go to the bar they wanted to go through, the 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:35.600 restaurant they wanted to go to, the sporting events closed down, 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:40.440 you know, schools closed, travel was restricted. People felt that, 0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:43.120 you know, they were mandated to wear masks, mandated to 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:46.640 get a vaccine, and that leaned into this libertarian left hook. 0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:49.760 And this is what you have, a well funded, sort 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:53.560 of libertarian anti vaccine campaign that has now been embraced 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:54.160 by the right. 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:57.000 And I kind of wanted to get into this a 0:14:57.040 --> 0:14:59.440 little bit more when it comes to like how this 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:04.360 miss disinformation spread and the role of social media. What 0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:07.240 do you think social media is doing to kind of 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:10.520 facilitate the spread of this bad scientific information? 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:16.880 Right, you can very easily find awful information about vaccines 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:19.880 that will fit any conspiracy theory. If you're hesitant about 0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:23.160 getting a vaccine, and it's understandable that you would be hesitant. 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:25.880 I mean, you're asking people who are otherwise healthy to 0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:29.680 inject themselves with a biological. In this case, the biological 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:32.040 is something with which we had no experience, and it's 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:36.000 a genetic vaccine. And the minute you say that word genetic, 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:39.120 people are thinking it's going to alter my genes. And 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:41.720 that's part of the argument that people have made. Right 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:44.480 there's DNA fragments in this vaccine that will alter your 0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:47.960 genome and or that the mRNA can you know, can 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:51.640 enter your nucleus and get reverse transcribed and then enter 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:54.200 your DNA and that would be the best news for 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:56.640 gene therapy ever, if that actually was possible with this 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:59.440 m RNA vaccines. But you know, so it's very easy 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:03.560 to get that notion out there that this vaccines can 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:07.360 do harm. The CDC director in two thousand and nine 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:09.400 was a man named Richard Besser, and that's when we 0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:12.720 had this wine flu pandemic, and he was great. He 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.520 was out there every other day, every third day, in 0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:18.120 front of the media, answering their questions. This is what 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:20.240 the vaccine is, this is how we're going to distribute it, 0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:22.000 this is how it's made, this is what the virus 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:23.920 is doing. This is where the virus is now, there's 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:25.560 where this is where we expect the virus is going 0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:29.320 to be. He was the model of how you communicate 0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:31.640 what we were doing and why we were doing it. 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:34.600 So I saw him at a National Foundation of Infectious 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:37.400 Disease meeting a couple of months ago and I said 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:39.800 that to him. I said, you were great, you were 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:41.560 a model. He said, thank you. I could never do 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:44.360 it today. Two reasons politics and social media. 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:46.560 You know, I want to go back to something that 0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:49.600 you mentioned, which is about how this anti vaccine movement 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:53.600 is so much better funded these days. And you know, 0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:56.960 when it comes to other subjects that are popular with 0:16:57.000 --> 0:17:01.120 the anti science crowd, so things like human and climate change, 0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:04.920 or historically cigarettes and lung cancer feel like it's easier 0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:07.560 to see it's easier to make those connections, to see 0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:10.680 the motivations of the people or the groups that are 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:14.960 spreading disinformation with climate change. Of course, the fossil fuel 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:18.159 industry doesn't want to lose profits as a result. Of 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:21.160 changing policies, and that's more or less the same thing 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:23.400 with big tobacco. As soon as that link about lung 0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:26.560 cancer and cigarettes came out, it was like, let's quash 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:31.280 this pretty clear motivation there. But I feel like identifying 0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:36.119 the drivers of the anti vaccine disinformation campaigns it's not 0:17:36.160 --> 0:17:40.040 as straightforward. So how can we categorize some of those drivers? 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:42.879 No, that's a really good point. I haven't thought of 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:45.280 it that way, But you're right. I mean, what exactly 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:49.280 is the financial motivation here? Assuming there's always a financial motivation? 0:17:49.680 --> 0:17:53.760 And I think it's just an expression of this notion 0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:57.679 of autonomy, sort of personal freedoms, and that the uber allis. 0:17:57.760 --> 0:18:00.560 I think that's just sort of become the ra of 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:04.040 the Republican right. And I think that's why, especially although 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:07.359 well the right, I'll just say, and so that's their 0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:11.320 current mantra. I think it just fits into their zeitgeist. 0:18:11.400 --> 0:18:14.080 I'm not sure that there is any financial motivation, but 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:16.119 there's certainly a lot of money to support it, I 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:17.800 mean more so than there is. You know, there was 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:21.280 an article ramonograph by a group called the Center for 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:25.159 Countering Digital Hate, and they had what they called the 0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:29.160 disinformation doesn't, and so it was twelve people or groups 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:32.479 that accounted for about seventy percent of the misinformation it 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:36.080 was out there. Their funding was often the same. They 0:18:36.119 --> 0:18:38.400 all got pretty much funding from the same source, which 0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:42.119 was the dietary supplement industry, which in many ways is 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:44.720 the same thing, because there are two. As a matter 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:48.479 of medical freedoms, we don't want the FDA telling us 0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:51.240 what we can or can say, because when we say 0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:53.640 things like, you know, this will make your prostate smaller 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:56.280 or this will make your immune system better, we want 0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:57.679 to be able to say that even though we have 0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:00.200 no evidence that that's true. And so the f HE 0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:02.399 sort of pushes back and doesn't really let you say that. 0:19:02.600 --> 0:19:04.399 You have to be vague or right. It supports pro 0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:07.800 sate health, im you and heal you, heart health, whatever, 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:10.320 and so they really are in many ways aligned with 0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:13.520 this group, which also likes to make claims that are unsupported. 0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:16.879 And I feel like so much of this has to 0:19:16.920 --> 0:19:22.040 do too with how uncertainty is communicated in popular media, 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:27.240 where scientists and people trained as scientists or as medical 0:19:27.280 --> 0:19:29.879 practitioners are sort of it's ingrained in us to be 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:34.119 more conservative in saying this causes this, or this is 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:37.400 the evidence for this, or there's a strong relationship. And 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:39.879 I kind of wanted this as like a very roundabout 0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:42.840 way of getting to my question, which is sort of 0:19:42.880 --> 0:19:46.960 about the way you think that scientists are trained in 0:19:47.040 --> 0:19:50.840 how to communicate with the public or the popular media, 0:19:50.880 --> 0:19:52.359 and how we can do better with that. 0:19:53.480 --> 0:19:56.439 I think our training as scientists is the opposite of 0:19:56.520 --> 0:19:59.760 the training that we need to educate the public and 0:19:59.760 --> 0:20:05.520 the about scientific issues, because when you write a scientific 0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:09.879 paper or a publish or scientific paper, the biggest sin you 0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:13.159 can commit is to ever go beyond the data in 0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:16.840 front of you, so you are a good scientific paper 0:20:17.200 --> 0:20:20.000 is one that in theory draws a conclusion and then 0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:23.040 the discussion section is full of caveats. Right, I really 0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:25.960 can't say this or this or this because my data 0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:28.720 limit me in terms of what I can say about that, 0:20:30.040 --> 0:20:33.800 and so we're always very careful. That's number one that 0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:37.000 doesn't come off well, at least in a popular press 0:20:37.080 --> 0:20:39.160 or in the media, because it sounds like you're wishy washy. 0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:41.359 It sounds like you're not sure of what you're saying. 0:20:41.680 --> 0:20:43.359 The other thing is is just the nature of the 0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:47.600 scientific method, which is that you formulate hypothesis, and then 0:20:47.640 --> 0:20:49.840 you can do two things with that hypothesis. You can 0:20:49.880 --> 0:20:52.160 reject it or not reject it, but you can never 0:20:52.200 --> 0:20:54.280 accept it, which is to say you can never prove 0:20:54.359 --> 0:21:01.280 never because the null hypothesis is paramount, and you can't 0:21:01.400 --> 0:21:03.960 ever accept the n all high positive. So I mean 0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:06.840 so as as an example, as a little boy, I 0:21:06.920 --> 0:21:09.960 watched the TV show Superman, which was black and white, 0:21:10.000 --> 0:21:12.200 and Christopher Reeve was it was before Chris Reeve was 0:21:12.240 --> 0:21:14.880 George Reeves. And you know, he flew. And when you're 0:21:14.920 --> 0:21:17.600 five years old and you're watching TV, TV does not lie, 0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:20.880 and so so you know he tie it. He'd had 0:21:20.880 --> 0:21:22.760 his cape and his hair would fly, and he would 0:21:22.760 --> 0:21:25.760 look at the city below and he would fly. So 0:21:25.840 --> 0:21:27.679 what I did was I went in the backyard and 0:21:27.800 --> 0:21:30.240 on a small chair, I stood up, and I put 0:21:30.240 --> 0:21:32.560 a towel around me and put my hands in front 0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:35.680 of me using the interlocking thumb grip, which I thought 0:21:35.680 --> 0:21:38.280 was critical to the whole experience because that's what he did. 0:21:38.800 --> 0:21:42.760 And I jumped a few times and didn't fly. You know, 0:21:43.000 --> 0:21:46.040 spoiler alert, I didn't fly. Now I could have done 0:21:46.080 --> 0:21:49.159 it a million times, that wouldn't have proven that I 0:21:49.200 --> 0:21:51.119 couldn't fly, it would only have made it all the 0:21:51.160 --> 0:21:54.199 more statistically unlikely. I could have done it a billion times, 0:21:54.240 --> 0:21:57.800 ten billion times, because the scientific method does not allow 0:21:57.840 --> 0:22:00.520 me to say I can't fly, the least not without 0:22:00.520 --> 0:22:03.680 a plane, but I can't fly. And so I can 0:22:03.680 --> 0:22:05.840 say that, and I think you have to get used 0:22:05.840 --> 0:22:08.359 to that. So, for example, you can't say the MMR 0:22:08.480 --> 0:22:11.280 vaccine doesn't cause autism. All you can say is that 0:22:11.320 --> 0:22:13.760 there are eighteen studies that have been done in seven 0:22:13.800 --> 0:22:16.720 countries on three continents, involving hundreds of thousands of people 0:22:16.760 --> 0:22:19.040 at the show that you're no more likely to develop 0:22:19.080 --> 0:22:21.800 autism if you've gotten the vaccine if you haven't. That's 0:22:21.840 --> 0:22:23.960 what you can say. And so I had to testify 0:22:24.040 --> 0:22:26.679 once in front of Dan Burton's Committee Office of Government 0:22:26.680 --> 0:22:30.040 Reform about that issue. Andrew Wakefield had just published his paper. 0:22:30.160 --> 0:22:32.159 He was on the other side. I was on the 0:22:32.520 --> 0:22:36.720 side of good trying to explain what we knew about 0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:40.000 MMR vaccine or what we knew about autism. And Colleen Boyle, 0:22:40.000 --> 0:22:42.359 who was great from the CDC, you know, she got 0:22:42.440 --> 0:22:44.840 up and she explained what the early data showed in 0:22:44.880 --> 0:22:48.159 terms of there was no association, no statistical association with 0:22:48.200 --> 0:22:51.280 those two things. But Dan Burton heard weakness in that, 0:22:51.359 --> 0:22:53.320 and he said, so you can't tell me. You can't 0:22:53.320 --> 0:22:55.600 tell me it doesn't cause it, do you, because you 0:22:55.640 --> 0:22:57.800 have and I quote an out in the back of 0:22:57.840 --> 0:23:00.360 this thing and so and so that you know, it's 0:23:00.359 --> 0:23:01.960 hard that you have to get used to that at 0:23:01.960 --> 0:23:03.919 some level that you are saying things that at some 0:23:04.040 --> 0:23:07.600 level scientifically you can't say. And for scientists that's hard. 0:23:09.040 --> 0:23:11.440 Let's take a quick break, and when we get back, 0:23:11.480 --> 0:23:29.600 there's still so much to discuss. Welcome back everyone. I've 0:23:29.600 --> 0:23:32.520 been chatting with doctor Paul Offitt about his book Tell 0:23:32.560 --> 0:23:36.199