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Speaker 2: Joining us now from Blackrock, Amanda line them if we
Speaker 2: are quiet?
Speaker 3: Now? Why are the markets so distressed?
Speaker 4: Good morning? Thank you for having me.
Speaker 5: I think what's been puzzling to us is that we've
Speaker 5: had an hour view, a trimming of the left tail
Speaker 5: risk on the trade policy uncertainty, but we're not completely
Speaker 5: in the clear in terms of the overhang and the
Speaker 5: potential hit to margins.
Speaker 4: As you were discussing in the earlier.
Speaker 5: Segment, Credit spreads are wider, but they're not reflecting a
Speaker 5: sharp down turn in growth. As for the yield backdrop,
Speaker 5: our colleagues in the Blackrock Investment Institute, I know you
Speaker 5: had way on earlier. This week, we're expecting a steepening
Speaker 5: of yield curves and a rebuild of term premium, the
Speaker 5: long ed. I think that's what that march higher and
Speaker 5: interest rates is reflecting for mere mortals like.
Speaker 2: Me who never look at this stuff. Where do you
Speaker 2: glean the most information? Is it in high yield dynamics?
Speaker 2: Is it in short term? So for fancy full FIH
Speaker 2: where does a mandoline them turn to learn?
Speaker 3: What fixed income says?
Speaker 5: I think the short term funding repo markets are definitely
Speaker 5: important in times like this.
Speaker 4: We're staying in.
Speaker 6: Very first contact. They are there.
Speaker 5: I would say liquidity is a bit challenged, but they're
Speaker 5: for sure open and functioning for corporate credit investors. Actually,
Speaker 5: the new issue debt capital markets has been a really
Speaker 5: important barometer of confidence during late twenty eighteen, during the pandemic,
Speaker 5: even during periods of the commodity disruption. The freezing of
Speaker 5: those capital markets during those periods of time did catch
Speaker 5: the FEDS attention. We know that right now they're open
Speaker 5: and functioning, just at a higher cost. We're watching that
Speaker 5: very closely. The other thing, at a more macro level,
Speaker 5: is this feedback loop, This really important feedback loop. We
Speaker 5: would argue between corporate margins, the layoff rate, which is
Speaker 5: still low, consumer spending and overall economic activity. If pressures
Speaker 5: on margins are enough for corporates to flex that layoff
Speaker 5: tool more aggressively, we think that could really cause some
Speaker 5: concern in the broader economic backdrop.
Speaker 7: How do you guys feel about credit quality out there
Speaker 7: in the marketplace.
Speaker 4: It's an interesting question, Paul.
Speaker 5: In times like this, the reflexes often just move up
Speaker 5: in quality.
Speaker 4: So to speak. We're actually pushing against that a bit.
Speaker 5: We're actually fine moving down in quality within the investment
Speaker 5: grade universe because on net, those companies are very well
Speaker 5: positioned fundamentally heading into this. So we're fine moving into
Speaker 5: that triple be part of the capital structure, and then
Speaker 5: even into the high end of high yield. Actually, in
Speaker 5: recent years, especially since the pandemic, the fundamentals of the
Speaker 5: high end of high yield look very similar to the
Speaker 5: low end of investment grade. There's a lot more fluidity
Speaker 5: between that market in terms of issuers. So we're actually
Speaker 5: fine reaching down in there. That picking up of additional
Speaker 5: spread is going to be really important given the volatility
Speaker 5: and the treasury market to of pushing those total returns.
Speaker 2: I'm man aligning with us head of macro credit at
Speaker 2: Blackrock this morning.
Speaker 7: A lot of good conversations, aren't they pardon BlackRock's pretty big,
Speaker 7: aren't they there are?
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're on the edge of ginormous. It depends if
Speaker 2: Jeff Rosenberg is having a good day. The most important
Speaker 2: quote I've seen here and I put it out on
Speaker 2: Twitter this morning, this is from the Governor Waller a
Speaker 2: tail of two outlooks of speech.
Speaker 3: This is Waller, folks.
Speaker 2: In terms of output growth with large tariff increases, I
Speaker 2: would expect the US economy to slow significantly later this
Speaker 2: year and this slower pace to continue into next year.
Speaker 2: What will our listeners and viewers debt instruments do?
Speaker 5: Right, So that's not priced in too credit spreads to
Speaker 5: the earlier point, there is some room for credit spreads
Speaker 5: to widen. Now, the magnitude of that growth downturn, we
Speaker 5: would argue, has yet to be determined. If you assume,
Speaker 5: like our colleagues and BII do an average effective teror
Speaker 5: freight of twenty percent using the economic rule of thumb,
Speaker 5: that's around a two hundred basis point hit to growth
Speaker 5: and a two hundred basis point upward pressure on inflation.
Speaker 5: The one thing that I thought was really important from
Speaker 5: both chair Pal and Beth Hammocks comments yesterday is that
Speaker 5: it seems that FED officials are acknowledging that the dual
Speaker 5: mandate could come into tension later this year as unemployment
Speaker 5: increases and inflation potentially increases. That's the most important part
Speaker 5: of I think the commentary that I gleaned yesterday, and
Speaker 5: what that means is that it's not a given that
Speaker 5: the FED will cut preemptively if we see signs of
Speaker 5: a growth downturn.
Speaker 3: Private credit.
Speaker 8: I don't.
Speaker 7: I mean, you got to take responsibility for private credit.
Speaker 9: You're fixing the space private I mean a black rock.
Speaker 7: I mean, they ruled the world private credit.
Speaker 9: Are we going to see some stress there?
Speaker 10: Do you think so?
Speaker 5: I think, just like liquid credit, private credit is subject
Speaker 5: to the business cycle and a deterioration in growth. We
Speaker 5: are expecting an uptick I would say, in liquid credit
Speaker 5: and private credit and covenant amendments, defaults, that sort of thing.
Speaker 5: The one interesting point, though, is that in times of
Speaker 5: private in times of liquid credit market volatility, private credit
Speaker 5: has usually stepped in as a financing source for a
Speaker 5: wide range of companies when the syndicated markets don't function
Speaker 5: as they should, not because of actual fundamentals, but more
Speaker 5: so technicals, which are a broader conversation.
Speaker 2: There's the blue button, the detroit Lyons blue button.
Speaker 3: There's no gray hair in the room.
Speaker 2: I remember that in every single crisis, the Wall Street
Speaker 2: angst is a surprise. Are these new fangled private credit
Speaker 2: private equity things do they have an internal leverage in
Speaker 2: them that makes them the next surprise?
Speaker 5: The amplifying channels that were present during the financial crisis
Speaker 5: when I was actually covering the insurance sector, they're not
Speaker 5: really there, Tom, And I think one of the maybe
Speaker 5: understated points on private credit this is long term capital
Speaker 5: that is locked up and is not really subject to
Speaker 5: run risk, for example like bank deposits. Right, So you're
Speaker 5: at matching long term capital with long term investments.
Speaker 4: That is going to be a stabilizing factor.
Speaker 5: Now we should not be pollyannish though, but a credit
Speaker 5: cycle or an economic downturn will cause losses. But can
Speaker 5: we bridging the gap? Is that a systemic risk? I
Speaker 5: think is a bridge too far?
Speaker 9: FED Chairman J.
Speaker 7: Powell, he's in news today, probably not for the reasons
Speaker 7: he wants to be What do you expect this FED
Speaker 7: to do over the next coming months? Is there any
Speaker 7: role they play here that I don't calm the markets
Speaker 7: to provide maybe greater liquidity.
Speaker 5: Sure, so as it relates to monetary policy, we're not
Speaker 5: expecting them to be preemptive. So we view a rate
Speaker 5: cut in the first half of this year as unlikely
Speaker 5: barring a really sharp downturn in the labor market, so
Speaker 5: you know, payroll gains fifty thousand or less a couple months.
Speaker 6: I think they have.
Speaker 4: Calmed the market.
Speaker 5: When the thirty year hit five percent, we started to
Speaker 5: hear from Susan Collins and others that they were kind
Speaker 5: of watching conditions in the funding markets and ready to
Speaker 5: step in to deploy their very robust toolkit that is
Speaker 5: left over from the pandemic and the financial crisis. So
Speaker 5: I do think they're kind of waiting in the wings
Speaker 5: that if market.
Speaker 4: Dislocation gets there.
Speaker 5: But volatility is different than a lack of functioning, and
Speaker 5: it seems that we're not there.
Speaker 4: We're not there at the moment.
Speaker 2: One final question, and it's just as simple as this.
Speaker 2: Everybody's going to go and flat over a long weekend.
Speaker 2: I mean, I get that. But the basic idea here
Speaker 2: is who's selling making prices go lower in bonds? Is
Speaker 2: it foreigner selling or is it domestic selling? What does
Speaker 2: black Rock say?
Speaker 5: We foreigners own around twenty five percent of the corporate
Speaker 5: bond market, so it's not just foreign holdings of treasuries
Speaker 5: or foreign holdings of eecutaries. Actually they are a meaningful participant.
Speaker 5: I do think that if you think about actually, European
Speaker 5: credit spreads have outperformed US credit spreads significantly over the
Speaker 5: past few weeks, and so I think while the US
Speaker 5: had been a destination for capital for a lot of
Speaker 5: these foreign investors, that may on the margin retreat a bit.
Speaker 5: That being said, the US corporate bond markets are still
Speaker 5: the most liquid, deepest, broadest market. So there's not a
Speaker 5: ton of substitution available in other markets outside.
Speaker 4: Of you US.
Speaker 3: Did I do that? Okay? So you're not in trouble
Speaker 3: with Chris Mead.
Speaker 4: I think that's he is perfect.
Speaker 3: Is your bagual work today? I think so, Amanda line
Speaker 3: and thank you so much. A black Rock.
Speaker 1: Here, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch US
Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen
Speaker 1: on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
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Speaker 2: Anastasia Amroso joins us right now, just absolutely outstanding of
Speaker 2: having the courage and this crisis, that crisis to stay
Speaker 2: in the market, chief investment strategist at I Capital, Anna Stagia.
Speaker 3: Let's get right to it.
Speaker 7: Now.
Speaker 2: Do you maintain a bull market call?
Speaker 6: I don't.
Speaker 11: I don't not in this near term outlook of time
Speaker 11: frame anyway, Tom, And you know the reason for that
Speaker 11: is you really have to parse the approach of the
Speaker 11: administration right now, which to me really spells short term
Speaker 11: pain for long term gain. And maybe we get to
Speaker 11: the long term gain and I'm happy to elaborate what
Speaker 11: I mean by that, but the short term pain for now,
Speaker 11: it seems to be something the administration is willing to stomach,
Speaker 11: and therefore, as market participants, we have to adjust accordingly.
Speaker 11: And the short term paint time that I'm talking about
Speaker 11: is the fact that either the consumer wallets will have
Speaker 11: to absorb what is this round of tariffs, or corporations
Speaker 11: will have to absorb it. And there's a cost that's
Speaker 11: associated with moving your supply chain and really rejiggering the
Speaker 11: way you've done business for the last number of years.
Speaker 11: So the second quarter that we're in right now, to me,
Speaker 11: is about this process of adjustment. And you know, yes,
Speaker 11: the analysts have been cutting earnings. Yes, the S and
Speaker 11: P five hundred is down fourteen percent from the fifty
Speaker 11: two week highs. But I still think this negative revision
Speaker 11: cycle for now is still with us, so near term,
Speaker 11: I am cautious and defensive in a portfolio kind of stage.
Speaker 7: I'm just looking at the earnings for the S and
Speaker 7: P five hundred on the Bloomberg terminal and just you know,
Speaker 7: a few weeks ago there were twelve percent roughly now
Speaker 7: it's kind of eight nine percent growth in county year
Speaker 7: twenty five.
Speaker 9: What do you think earnings growth shakes out for this year?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it definitely goes lower from here. And
Speaker 6: you know the way to think about it.
Speaker 11: For about a five percent increase in the effective terror frate.
Speaker 11: This is, by the way, according to Goldman Sachs calculations,
Speaker 11: you can expect one or two percentage points to decline
Speaker 11: in earnings growth.
Speaker 6: So if you do the math for the sixteen percent.
Speaker 11: Effective terror freight, which we most likely have at the moment,
Speaker 11: that probably takes us down another three to six percent
Speaker 11: lower on earnings growth. So the S and P five
Speaker 11: hundred estimates are down about three and a half as
Speaker 11: you mentioned, and I do think there's three to six
Speaker 11: percent lower to go so we might end up with
Speaker 11: roughly flat or maybe plus two percent earnings growth for
Speaker 11: the year. So the good news with that, though, is
Speaker 11: that the markets move ahead of that, and the fact
Speaker 11: that is and P is down that fourteen percent from
Speaker 11: the fifty two week highs, it does suggest the market
Speaker 11: is already prepared for, you know, for this cycle of
Speaker 11: downwards revisions. But in historically, when you look at investment
Speaker 11: periods like this, it is not a great backdrop for
Speaker 11: risk assets when you have cyclical slope down and negative
Speaker 11: earnings revisions.
Speaker 2: What happens if the tariff crisis is a lesser crisis,
Speaker 2: if somehow the magnitude pulls back, the President capitulates, whatever,
Speaker 2: what will happen.
Speaker 3: To people's four to oh one k if that happens?
Speaker 6: All right, well, I guess we saw the preview of that.
Speaker 11: Tom last Wednesday when tariffs were reverse And this is
Speaker 11: why it is a precarious time for investors. And the
Speaker 11: way that I do position this right now is, yes,
Speaker 11: you have to honker down and prepare for the short
Speaker 11: term pain in your existing portfolios, and at the same
Speaker 11: time you have to think of this time if you
Speaker 11: are a long term investor as a moment of opportunity
Speaker 11: for a long term investor.
Speaker 6: So I would really sort of decouple.
Speaker 11: If you have an existing portfolio, you stayed defensive, you
Speaker 11: lean into stables, you lean into each is, you lean
Speaker 11: into private credit where you can get paid. But if
Speaker 11: you do have cash on the sidelines that you've been
Speaker 11: waiting to deploy, if you can take a.
Speaker 6: Twelve month plus time horizon, I think that's excellent stage.
Speaker 3: We know.
Speaker 11: It can't be bearish for too long talk because obviously
Speaker 11: is on our side, right, most.
Speaker 2: Of our guess have a twelve minute horizon. It's good
Speaker 2: to have ana stage out of twelve months. We're going
Speaker 2: to continue with Anastasia m Roso here of ICAP and a.
Speaker 3: Time of crisis.
Speaker 2: You know, we make jokes about it, folks, but you
Speaker 2: know I really have to say, boy, there's a lot
Speaker 2: of tension out there.
Speaker 9: Sure, people just exhausted, and our job.
Speaker 3: Is to keep it light, but this is serious stuff.
Speaker 2: It's great to have someone on a Blackana Stagia put.
Speaker 3: The bat down with the market opening, Lisa Matteo.
Speaker 4: I can't help, but good morning, guys.
Speaker 12: Well shairs have been mixed before the bell slump and
Speaker 12: health insurance really weighing on sentiment right now. The markets
Speaker 12: are open, so let's get to the feeling this morning.
Speaker 12: S and P five hundred up three tenths of percent
Speaker 12: twenty points five two hundred and ninety six. We have
Speaker 12: the Dow down a percent, four hundred and eighty two
Speaker 12: points three thirty nine thousand, one hundred and eighty eight,
Speaker 12: and the Nasdaq that's up about half a percent ninety
Speaker 12: two points sixteen thousand, three hundred and ninety eight. The
Speaker 12: two year yield at three point seven seven percent, that's
Speaker 12: little changed. They yield on the ten year four point
Speaker 12: twenty nine percent, and that's up about two basis points.
Speaker 12: We have the Bloomberg Dollars Spot index has little changed
Speaker 12: right now, and checking in with a few stocks that
Speaker 12: were really moving before the belt now at the open,
Speaker 12: we have United Health down seventeen percent, Hurts up twenty
Speaker 12: seven percent, and Eli Lilly up thirteen percent.
Speaker 6: That is your Bloomberg opening bell report.
Speaker 3: Paul in Tom say people are making money with that
Speaker 3: or is it just about a lot of losses?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think you know, across the board, we're seeing
Speaker 7: you know, the median stock down much more than the
Speaker 7: overall index.
Speaker 3: Anastaja Amiros with us.
Speaker 2: With that, I kept Anastasia, you were so great in
Speaker 2: a bull market, and the theme was by America, by
Speaker 2: free cash flow, buy the Mag five, the Mag six,
Speaker 2: the Mag eight.
Speaker 3: What ever, is that still in place? Can you own
Speaker 3: Apple this morning?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 11: I think some of it is still in place, Tom,
Speaker 11: And you know, coming into the year, we did worry
Speaker 11: about the Max seven stocks. We did worry about semiconductors,
Speaker 11: and some of it was because of the big tech regulation.
Speaker 11: Some of it was because of this raft of tariffs
Speaker 11: that and expert controls that we expected. So for the
Speaker 11: time being, the first place I would step into would
Speaker 11: not be the Max seven stocks, and.
Speaker 6: Semiconductors, for example, will likely.
Speaker 11: Be challenged if you have this cyclical slowdown in the
Speaker 11: global economy. They just get caught up in export controls
Speaker 11: and the overall slowdown. So I don't necessarily think that
Speaker 11: that part of it right.
Speaker 6: Now is the first place to be.
Speaker 11: They're not immune from US economic slowdown either, But I
Speaker 11: do think that, as I mentioned before, you want to
Speaker 11: align yourself with the direction of policy right now, and
Speaker 11: the direction of policy is focus on domestic companies who
Speaker 11: are sourcing their cost of good soul here in the United.
Speaker 6: States, and they're mostly selling to the US consumers.
Speaker 11: So that's why sector like utilities and real estate and
Speaker 11: consumer staples for example have outperformed. And by the way,
Speaker 11: also financials are held up as well. So that's why
Speaker 11: I would focus there right now. But I will say
Speaker 11: Tom that you know, if this administration succeeds longer term,
Speaker 11: and if this results in deals that brings production to
Speaker 11: the United States, if this results in a new world order,
Speaker 11: we actually heriffs and non TEARFF barriers do drop, then
Speaker 11: maybe we do have this on shoring investment boom. And
Speaker 11: so you have to allow for the possibility, especially given
Speaker 11: the tax policy in the US.
Speaker 6: Which suits so favorable.
Speaker 3: She can't be negative. I mean, you know, thank you
Speaker 3: so much with I capital greatly greatly appreciated.
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Speaker 2: This is a really important conversation. I did it chart
Speaker 2: years and years ago in the Bloomberg which was the
Speaker 2: decline of manufacturing employment in America, and there's Ebsen flows
Speaker 2: to it, but if you've run it on a log axis, frankly, folks,
Speaker 2: it's a really smooth, just technological driven decline and employment
Speaker 2: is the population of manufacturing in America. J Timmins is
Speaker 2: the CEO of the Group for Manufacturers and National Association
Speaker 2: for Manufacturers.
Speaker 3: As we mentioned, he's out.
Speaker 2: Of the Ohio state, done a lot of work for
Speaker 2: various political types of North Carolina's driving the voice of manufacturers.
Speaker 2: What's the number one thing Jay, the President gets wrong
Speaker 2: about manufacturing in America? All the stereotypes that are out there,
Speaker 2: what's President Trump.
Speaker 3: Most it wrong? You know?
Speaker 8: I think that what a lot of Americans get wrong
Speaker 8: is that manufacturing is a very modern, technology driven operation.
Speaker 8: And it's not. It is not the manufacturing that you
Speaker 8: might think about from your father or grandfather's days. This
Speaker 8: is something that has a different type of skill set
Speaker 8: that's required. And so manufacturers right now are investing a
Speaker 8: lot in training that next generation of the manufacturing workforce.
Speaker 2: I saw a chart yesterday that showed the complete lockey
Speaker 2: in the philosophy folks of individualistic America, the complete failure
Speaker 2: of America to retrain the workforce after the last forty years.
Speaker 3: Lightheiser, among others, has been great on this.
Speaker 2: How in God's name do we start acting like Europe
Speaker 2: and actually retrain manufacturing types put out of work.
Speaker 8: So let's not act like Europe completely when it comes
Speaker 8: to manufacturing. But I agree with you that they have
Speaker 8: some really good apprenticeship programs, and we we're pretty proud
Speaker 8: of our apprenticeship work that we do at the National
Speaker 8: Association of Manufacturers through the formerly known as the Toyota
Speaker 8: Fame program, so we were spreading that across the country.
Speaker 8: I think what we really need to focus on, though,
Speaker 8: if we truly want to grow manufacturing investment here in
Speaker 8: the United States, we've got to make things less expensive
Speaker 8: here in this country. So by that, I mean our
Speaker 8: tax policy twenty seventeen. Those tax reforms, they were, as
Speaker 8: President Trump said, rocket fuel for manufacturing, investment, hiring, wage
Speaker 8: growth in our industry. Those things are expiring and we
Speaker 8: need to get those We need to get those renewed,
Speaker 8: and so we're waiting for Congress to do that. The
Speaker 8: regulatory burden is another big cost driver about fifty thousand
Speaker 8: dollars per employee per year in compliance costs for manufacturing.
Speaker 2: We need to do credits like LBJ a million years ago,
Speaker 2: just do direct credits to manufacturing.
Speaker 8: I think, well, I think tax policy is actually that
Speaker 8: would help drive that investment, right, So if you have
Speaker 8: lower tax rates and you're able to compete against the
Speaker 8: rest of the world's that's really where I think we
Speaker 8: want to We want.
Speaker 7: To say at what types of manufacturing jobs do we
Speaker 7: really want to bring back to the US. We want
Speaker 7: to bring textile mills back to the US. What do
Speaker 7: we want to bring back?
Speaker 8: So I do think that the narrative that manufacturing the
Speaker 8: manufacturing workforces is in decline is actually a false narrative.
Speaker 3: We've had.
Speaker 8: We're right now at about thirteen approaching fourteen million manufacturing employees.
Speaker 8: That's been pretty stable for the list, stable in the
Speaker 8: last six, seven, eight years. To give me that, Yeah,
Speaker 8: but we want to grow it, right, We want to
Speaker 8: grow that here. And so those jobs, and I appreciate
Speaker 8: the question, those jobs are really very very different than
Speaker 8: in the past, so highly highly technical job, so we
Speaker 8: want people to be trained with a very different set
Speaker 8: of skills than perhaps even five ten years ago. Right,
Speaker 8: And so to your very first question, that falls on
Speaker 8: manufacturers to invest in training their workforce. And I'm pretty
Speaker 8: proud of what we are doing in the sector right
Speaker 8: now to accomplish exactly that. So we need, but we
Speaker 8: need those economic policies that help facilitate that.
Speaker 7: So it seems like, you know, a lot of folks
Speaker 7: are now questioning the value of a college education, and
Speaker 7: a lot of folks are saying.
Speaker 3: Poa trades are really.
Speaker 8: You know, talk to us about trades school is so
Speaker 8: lucky to have an Ohio state person here.
Speaker 3: Talk to us about the trade schools are.
Speaker 8: They're becoming extraordinarily important in the manufacturing sector. But I
Speaker 8: also want to say that we have something for everyone
Speaker 8: in manufacturing. You know, probably about forty five percent of
Speaker 8: the jobs in manufacturing require nothing more than a college's
Speaker 8: part a high school degree, but there are positions that
Speaker 8: are that require a four year degree or technical training
Speaker 8: even advanced to all across.
Speaker 2: I want to go to the pausal motion and I'm
Speaker 2: going to double barrel here. The Financial Times, I'm sorry,
Speaker 2: I can't set the author as one of their great newsletters,
Speaker 2: had that wonderful survey three four days ago. Everybody wants
Speaker 2: to bring Jay Timman's world back to America more manufacturing jobs,
Speaker 2: but a huge body of Americans don't want to work
Speaker 2: in manufacturing. There's a poll spoke volumes. But the videos
Speaker 2: that have gone viral, which is fat people like me
Speaker 2: sitting in a machine doing mundane factory work. That's the
Speaker 2: stereotype Paul was just talking about.
Speaker 3: I mean, the fear is, you got some four.
Speaker 2: Hundred and six hundred eight hundred people outside Hong Kong
Speaker 2: doing make work.
Speaker 3: Do we want to bring those jobs back here?
Speaker 8: So I want to grow the types of jobs we
Speaker 8: have here in this country. And I know it sounds
Speaker 8: kind of tried to say, but I love opening up
Speaker 8: the doors to manufacturing facilities for young people. My daughter
Speaker 8: Ellie is traveling with me this week. It's her spring break,
Speaker 8: and we've been able to go into a couple of
Speaker 8: plant floors and I think her eyes were opened about
Speaker 8: the possibilities in manufacturing. Those jobs are pretty exciting, They
Speaker 8: change constantly, and they provide really a lifelong and presently.
Speaker 3: Bud in advance that with all his legislation.
Speaker 8: I think that the Chips and Science Act was very
Speaker 8: important for this country. I think that the investments that
Speaker 8: we made in infrastructure were very important for this country.
Speaker 8: And in the IRA Bill that was passed, there were
Speaker 8: some policy provisions that we thought were very important as well.
Speaker 8: So look, I mean manufacturing changes, and I'm not going
Speaker 8: to sit here and say that you know it's manufacturing
Speaker 8: is a Republican industry or a Democratic industry. It's an
Speaker 8: American industry. And when manufacturing see's been.
Speaker 3: In the trenches of the Capitol.
Speaker 2: I mean what you just said is that app that
Speaker 2: Republics and Democrats are on the same page.
Speaker 8: I think every single person I talked to, I don't
Speaker 8: care if they are a Republican or Democrat. They want
Speaker 8: to manufacturing succeed. Now have these people that went to
Speaker 8: the University of Mission. That's that's still out for debate.
Speaker 8: But listen, I understand that there are different philosophies on
Speaker 8: how to accomplish that, but I can tell you from
Speaker 8: what I when I talk to manufacturing leaders, what they
Speaker 8: say is reduce the cost of doing business here in
Speaker 8: the United States and we will flourish. And when either
Speaker 8: side or both sides focus on that, that is exactly
Speaker 8: what we'll see in this country.
Speaker 7: The cost of production, the cost of manufacturing in the US.
Speaker 7: My understanding from sixty years on this planet in business
Speaker 7: education is that it's higher here, materially higher here than
Speaker 7: the rest of the world. That's why the jobs went
Speaker 7: to other places.
Speaker 9: Around the world.
Speaker 7: Can the US compete on a cost basis manufacturing wise?
Speaker 8: You think yes, and they can do that. And listen,
Speaker 8: some people will say, oh, well, the cost of labor,
Speaker 8: you know what, don't give me that. I want to
Speaker 8: pay our people more. I want our people in this
Speaker 8: country to be paid more. If we're going to do that,
Speaker 8: that means that we've got a lower cost that we
Speaker 8: actually have control over. And I sound like a broken record,
Speaker 8: but I'm going to go back to tax reform twenty seventeen.
Speaker 8: Those reforms were rocket fuel. And now we have members
Speaker 8: of Congress saying, well, maybe we don't have to do
Speaker 8: quite as much.
Speaker 3: As we did before.
Speaker 8: Maybe we can raise taxes on small businesses. No, that's
Speaker 8: not going to work. That's just not going to work.
Speaker 7: What type of jobs, what type of manufacturing would you
Speaker 7: like to see in the US that maybe we're not
Speaker 7: doing right now?
Speaker 8: Actually we're doing almost everything. I just want to do.
Speaker 9: An iPhone here, well versus we have come in.
Speaker 8: I believe that those are the types of jobs that
Speaker 8: you'll see coming here with the right policies.
Speaker 13: Yeah.
Speaker 3: How do you respond technology production?
Speaker 2: Yeah, in the last couple of days, they've reducted the
Speaker 2: Trump are no visit to Texas to try to make
Speaker 2: handbags for Louis Vuitton whatever leather projects as well. How
Speaker 2: do you respond to the stereotype Americans can't do the
Speaker 2: fine work that we get out of Asian manufacturing and employment.
Speaker 2: I'll give you one example. Gretch, now owned by Fender,
Speaker 2: makes white Falcon guitars in Japan. They're exquisite. Nothing was
Speaker 2: ever made like that out of Michigan years ago. How
Speaker 2: do you respond to the fact Americans can't do the
Speaker 2: fine manufacturing work of Asia.
Speaker 8: Well, maybe we should do that in Ohio, but it's
Speaker 8: a big part of Ohio right now.
Speaker 3: I'm just listen.
Speaker 8: I think Americans can rise to the challenge of literally
Speaker 8: anything in the terms of manufacturing.
Speaker 3: But I do have to say.
Speaker 8: This, we can't do everything here in the United States,
Speaker 8: much as we would like to, but we can do
Speaker 8: a whole lot more. Right now, we have five hundred
Speaker 8: thousand open jobs in manufacturing, And to your point, are
Speaker 8: people really inspired to go into manufacturing? That is the
Speaker 8: job of our Manufacturing Institute to make sure young people.
Speaker 3: See pay is a solution there ll pay is the highest.
Speaker 8: In any section of the economy, right, the average pay.
Speaker 2: I must ask, how do you respond to job loss
Speaker 2: in Windsor, Ontario and job loss in Michigan and manufacturing auto?
Speaker 3: I mean this is nuts some of that too, right.
Speaker 8: Some of that is going south right where there are
Speaker 8: lower costs of doing business, and some of that is demand,
Speaker 8: and some of that is additional potential costs like tariff
Speaker 8: policy that could have a negative impact on our ability
Speaker 8: to be productive here in this country to lower the
Speaker 8: cost of production.
Speaker 7: We're hearing the whole discussion of tariffs are creating a
Speaker 7: lot of uncertainty in the marketplace. Are you hearing that
Speaker 7: from the manufacturers you talk.
Speaker 8: To every single day?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I love times.
Speaker 7: So are they just are they pulling back on capital investments?
Speaker 8: I think that they are very to be very blunt
Speaker 8: about it. I think manufacturers are very concerned. They want
Speaker 8: to see progress. The President has given himself ninety days.
Speaker 8: I don't know what that's down to now, about eighty
Speaker 8: probably left to negotiate deals from around the world, and
Speaker 8: we are very hopeful that we're going to see some
Speaker 8: policies that are zero for zero tariffs. I understand the
Speaker 8: Italian Prime Minister is proposing exactly that right now for
Speaker 8: the EU. But we also have a couple other issues.
Speaker 8: We've got critical minerals, critical inputs like critical minerals or
Speaker 8: machines for machinery for shop floors, chemicals that we can't
Speaker 8: do here right now. We've got to figure out a
Speaker 8: way to bring those into these discussions as well.
Speaker 2: By the way, is there bipartisan support to fix a
Speaker 2: pharmaceuticals are made in China or Europe or rare minerals
Speaker 2: have been co opted by China.
Speaker 3: I don't see the bipartisan support.
Speaker 8: Well, what I hear is we want to make sure
Speaker 8: that our supply chain is strong and is kind of unbreakable.
Speaker 8: If you think back to COVID, our supply chain was
Speaker 8: broken and so we weren't able to access things like PPE.
Speaker 8: We were as an organization, we were calling the entire
Speaker 8: world to get PPE here to New York at.
Speaker 3: Please to put up your back. I want we gotta go.
Speaker 2: But Jay Timmins, this is a manufacturing at your best.
Speaker 2: This is Anthony Volpi American made torpedo bat. I want
Speaker 2: to ask you Yankees, that is a fine American manufacturing.
Speaker 7: Now exactly right, Let's for the great American game basebe there.
Speaker 3: You go, yeah, let's hit it out of the park.
Speaker 3: You're going to hit it out of the park. And
Speaker 3: as the Yankees did last night. Jake Timmins, thank you
Speaker 3: so much.
Speaker 2: She CEO and President of National Association of Manufacturers can't
Speaker 2: say enough about that.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 2: Joining us now is the Woman with the Greatest job
Speaker 2: a college known to mankind.
Speaker 3: Here's the way it is, folks.
Speaker 2: You're at home and you're you know, you vote right
Speaker 2: down the list GOP and your daughter, your son announces
Speaker 2: that they're to the left of Bernie Sanders, so they
Speaker 2: want to go out and get the job in America.
Speaker 2: Ali Martell has the job out of George Washington University
Speaker 2: with Blue Rose Research. Ali How did you get the
Speaker 2: job every kid to the left wants in America? How
Speaker 2: did you actually get this plumb position wrapped around Bernie Sanders?
Speaker 13: Well, right now, I'm working for a company called Blue
Speaker 13: Rose Research, which is an organization that works across the
Speaker 13: entire democratic and progressive ecosystem.
Speaker 6: But to start, I am a data analyst by trade.
Speaker 13: And that's something that I had to self teach through
Speaker 13: things like Excel and online courses and also learning a
Speaker 13: little bit on the job as an organizer. Right, no
Speaker 13: one path to becoming a data analyst, but it was
Speaker 13: a fun path.
Speaker 3: I set her up for that. Folks. She's fluent in Python.
Speaker 2: The way you get into politics in America is to
Speaker 2: computer program, Ali Martel, Right now, there was no.
Speaker 3: Python going on in Utah for the left.
Speaker 2: We saw the gentle lady of the Bronx and the
Speaker 2: gentlemen Vermont get in you two sized populations. The arenas
Speaker 2: were packed in Utah. Allie, you know there's twelve Democrats
Speaker 2: in Utah.
Speaker 3: How did that happen?
Speaker 1: You know?
Speaker 13: I'd love to point to a chart that is in
Speaker 13: the retrospective that our team put out that you mentioned,
Speaker 13: where we look at overall issue importance to voters. And
Speaker 13: when you look at that chart, you see something very
Speaker 13: clearly that voters care more than anything else about their
Speaker 13: day to day material reality. They care about the economy,
Speaker 13: they care about the cost of living, they care about
Speaker 13: the costs of their healthcare. And so that's something that
Speaker 13: we find not only do voters really care about it,
Speaker 13: but they're actually generally aligned with overall the Democratic Party
Speaker 13: on a number of economic focus issues. Voters agree with
Speaker 13: us that we need to curtail corporate price gouging, that
Speaker 13: we need to make sure that the ultra wealthy are
Speaker 13: paying their fair share. So we have some really persuasive
Speaker 13: thing on this subject matter.
Speaker 6: And so but at the same time, if you look
Speaker 6: at that.
Speaker 13: Same chart, you also see that Republicans still have a
Speaker 13: trust advantage on these issues. And so there's a branding
Speaker 13: issue here, but there's a lot for us to be
Speaker 13: working with because at the end of the day, a
Speaker 13: lot of Republican voters do actually agree with our economic platform.
Speaker 3: Okay, well, let's keep scoring here, Paul.
Speaker 2: To be clear, House Republicans won, Senate Republicans one white
Speaker 2: House Republicans won.
Speaker 3: That's a score.
Speaker 7: Paul go Alie talk to us about the Democratic Party today?
Speaker 7: Where is it? Since election day? We have heard nothing
Speaker 7: from the Democratic Party. President Trump has taken all the
Speaker 7: oxygen out of the room very successfully.
Speaker 9: Where's a Democratic Party today?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 13: You know, election night was obviously tough for the Democratic
Speaker 13: Party at large. There were a number of victories down
Speaker 13: ballot that are obviously getting overshadowed by what happened.
Speaker 6: At the top of the ticket.
Speaker 13: But you know, it could have been a blowout red
Speaker 13: wave that night, and it wasn't. There were a lot
Speaker 13: of victories in the House, the Senate, the state legislature's
Speaker 13: ballot initiatives, but obviously what happened at the top of
Speaker 13: the ticket was devastating and it.
Speaker 6: Still wasn't enough. The trends that we're looking at, you know, one.
Speaker 13: Of the things that makes it tough to reflect on
Speaker 13: is that there were a number of losses across the
Speaker 13: board with a number of different demographics. Trump had already
Speaker 13: been making in roads with non white voters for some time.
Speaker 13: We had already been seeing increased levels of educational polarization,
Speaker 13: where college educated voters were becoming more democratic and non
Speaker 13: college educated voters are becoming more Republican. The thing that
Speaker 13: we were seeing specifically in twenty twenty four that you know,
Speaker 13: we're kind of talking about right now as a party
Speaker 13: when we look at who Biden won in twenty twenty
Speaker 13: that he had started to lose over the course of
Speaker 13: his presidency. Those folks really had one big thing comment
Speaker 13: they skewed towards being less politically and less likely to
Speaker 13: Right's likely to view politics is important to their identity
Speaker 13: and so that is new for the Democratic Party, and
Speaker 13: it's something that was.
Speaker 2: Still I got time for one more quick question here.
Speaker 2: We're going to have you back. This has been really
Speaker 2: really good, Ali Martel, Matt Eglesia's Rights for Bloomberg opinion.
Speaker 2: Democrats need more combative centrists. Where are they right now?
Speaker 13: It is fair to say that voters are looking for
Speaker 13: somebody to step up and push back on some of
Speaker 13: the things that Trump is saying that he's going to
Speaker 13: be doing or doing that.
Speaker 6: Is going to hurt their day to day lives.
Speaker 13: You know, there are some potential, real vulnerabilities from some
Speaker 13: of the policies that the Trump administration is getting behind,
Speaker 13: and so people are looking for a change. There's a
Speaker 13: reason that global incumbents, not just Joe Biden have been
Speaker 13: losing left and right in this post COVID economy. People
Speaker 13: are unhappy Whitney status quo. So I didn't think that
Speaker 13: there's some merit to Ellie.
Speaker 3: We got to run. Thank you so much. We'll do
Speaker 3: this again, Elie Martel with US of Blue Rose Research.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 2: Whitney Tilson joins us now and if you just need
Speaker 2: to know one attribute to Whitney Tilson, I'm sorry. It
Speaker 2: is the most coveted MBA distinction out there. It is
Speaker 2: a Baker schylar, real deal diversity.
Speaker 3: Years ago.
Speaker 2: Were you surprised when you were a Baker schylar, Like,
Speaker 2: were you sitting in your dorm room staring at the
Speaker 2: ceiling and they said, Whitney, good news, You're a Baker scholar.
Speaker 3: Is that how it works?
Speaker 10: Well, it's just based you know, based on your grades
Speaker 10: over two years. It's top five percent of the class
Speaker 10: and I'd been getting mostly ones, is what they call
Speaker 10: A is there, and so it wasn't completely unexpected, but yeah,
Speaker 10: it was, it was, it was. It was a real honor.
Speaker 2: The race to me is original, and that, for example,
Speaker 2: was Scott Stringer with this huge liberal, progressive Jewish support
Speaker 2: from Bella absent and Jacob Javits back. It seems like
Speaker 2: the Fabrican character of our political system is breaking. Who
Speaker 2: do you represent in this race?
Speaker 3: Fed up New Yorkers?
Speaker 10: That's I got into the race because I saw a
Speaker 10: bunch of career politicians. This was back after the elections Scott.
Speaker 10: To be fair, absolutely thirty plus years, and I think
Speaker 10: the New York City is being poorly managed. It's headed
Speaker 10: in the wrong direction. And I didn't see any real
Speaker 10: change candidates in the race. And I saw how well
Speaker 10: this city was run and how well it did under
Speaker 10: Mike Bloomberg. Sort of funny here sitting on a Bloomberg
Speaker 10: show in fact, and in the in years since he
Speaker 10: left office, under two career politicians and looking at a
Speaker 10: field of more career politicians. I think New Yorkers are
Speaker 10: looking for a change agent and I'm the only one
Speaker 10: in the race.
Speaker 7: And of course Mike Bloomberg is the founder of Bloomberg
Speaker 7: LP and this radio vice apparatus.
Speaker 9: Here, Whitney, what's your platform? What do you want to
Speaker 9: do here?
Speaker 10: Mostly get the city's economy growing again. And we are
Speaker 10: an economic powerhouse. You mentioned how important New York is
Speaker 10: to the country. It's five percent of US GDP just
Speaker 10: in the five boroughs of New York. And when I
Speaker 10: go to all the mayoral forums and talk with all
Speaker 10: the career politicians and debate the issues, all we're debating
Speaker 10: is how to spend the tax dollars and which city
Speaker 10: program they would fund and create more spending programs. And
Speaker 10: I'm a business person and I understand our tax base
Speaker 10: comes from our economic base, from wealthy and individuals. People
Speaker 10: invest in growing businesses. Everybody wants rising wages. The way
Speaker 10: to get there is growing businesses hiring more people. So
Speaker 10: I think we can grow this economy by fifty percent
Speaker 10: in the next ten years. That's about four point one
Speaker 10: percent compounded.
Speaker 2: How does someone like Mayor Tilson speak to the constituency
Speaker 2: of someone we've had in many times, and that would
Speaker 2: be Greg Meeks of Queens. He's the leading Democrat of Queens.
Speaker 2: There's all sorts of constituencies under Congressman Queens as Congressman
Speaker 2: Meeks within Queens, how do you speak to the machine
Speaker 2: if you're an outsider.
Speaker 10: Right, I'm going directly to the voters. There is no
Speaker 10: path for a first time candidate outsider like me to
Speaker 10: win a traditional race. But keep in mind, only twenty
Speaker 10: six percent of eligible Democrats voted in the primary last time.
Speaker 10: I think the other seventy four percent a lot of
Speaker 10: them didn't vote because they didn't they just saw different
Speaker 10: flavors of career politicians. So I've got to go around
Speaker 10: the machine directly to the voters with a message of change.
Speaker 10: And if you look at voters, seventy five percent of
Speaker 10: New York City voters think the city's head in the
Speaker 10: wrong direction and clearly want change. And so I've got
Speaker 10: a position myself as the change candidate and go directly
Speaker 10: to them.
Speaker 7: You see, you need to change the tax situation in
Speaker 7: the City of New York.
Speaker 10: Well, I'm the only candidate to my knowledge who said
Speaker 10: I will not be raising taxes. The number two candidate
Speaker 10: in the polls after Governor Cuomo, is a thirty three
Speaker 10: year old socialist named Zorn Mamdani, and he just came
Speaker 10: out yesterday with an enormous tax plan to raise corporate taxes,
Speaker 10: to raise taxes on the wealthy in New York, and
Speaker 10: we already have the highest tax rate in the city,
Speaker 10: excuse me, in the country, and I think the traditional
Speaker 10: tax and spend far left plan will would be devastating
Speaker 10: and cause further flight of our wealthiest citizens who pay
Speaker 10: the bulk of our taxes, as well as our business base.
Speaker 3: What investment can we grow?
Speaker 2: People don't even know that there's a whole manufacturing heritage
Speaker 2: of the boroughs Brooklyn in all there's the romance back
Speaker 2: to one hundred years back or so. If there is
Speaker 2: business investment here, what kind of business investment is it?
Speaker 10: Well, right off the top of real estate, we have
Speaker 10: a cute housing crisis in this city, a one point
Speaker 10: four percent vacancy rate, the highest rents in the country.
Speaker 10: We're losing our working class who literally can't pay their rent.
Speaker 10: But we've erected zoning codes, environmental rules, just a stifling
Speaker 10: process to get anything built residential and business construction as well.
Speaker 10: So that would be a huge areas.
Speaker 2: Do you find evidence of support among Democrat traditional politicians
Speaker 2: for this idea? Got to fix the housing crisis in
Speaker 2: America or do you feel like a lone voice.
Speaker 10: Actually, every candidate in the race is talking about this,
Speaker 10: but most of the traditional career politicians are falling back
Speaker 10: on their traditional nostrums of government spending, using federal dollars
Speaker 10: to build subsidized housing, and they generally speak disparagingly about
Speaker 10: those evil landlords exploiting tenants and evicting them and so forth.
Speaker 10: And my view is the opposite. With federal governments cuts
Speaker 10: likely on the way, We're going to have to tighten
Speaker 10: our belts and the only way, the only big pool
Speaker 10: of money to do this kind of investment's got to
Speaker 10: come from the private sector, and we need to make
Speaker 10: New York an attractive place to invest.
Speaker 2: So I'm a kid, I'm over in Switzerland. It's forced
Speaker 2: with Franks to a dollar. It's just Franks appreciate it
Speaker 2: a little bit. And I'm sitting over there across the
Speaker 2: valley Velde Reveld, and I can see Whitney Tilson climbing
Speaker 2: the matter horn. I can see him in the binoculars,
Speaker 2: just like the Disney movie that we.
Speaker 3: All grew up with. What's it like? Not in the
Speaker 3: Disney movie, but Whitney Tilson, What's it actually like to
Speaker 3: climb the matter Horn. It was magnificent.
Speaker 10: I've climbed the Mont Blanc, the Matterhorn, the Eiger, and
Speaker 10: then here in the United States. You know, really one
Speaker 10: of the iconic climbs of all time was the nose
Speaker 10: of El Capitan, which was featured in the movie Free Solo.
Speaker 10: But I did it with ropes and a guide, so
Speaker 10: you know, if I slipped and fell, I wasn't gonna
Speaker 10: I wasn't going to die.
Speaker 3: But it wasn't like the Disney movie.
Speaker 10: Yes, so you know, in some ways, what I'm doing
Speaker 10: here running for Mayor is a seven month extended version
Speaker 10: of some of the extreme climbing and other events I've done.
Speaker 3: What's been the biggest surprise in this effort so far.
Speaker 10: To the upside just what an incredible city this is
Speaker 10: and getting out into every corner, how incredibly diverse this is.
Speaker 10: Our immigrants, our communities are such a strength and an asset,
Speaker 10: and I think it's terrible that they're feeling terrorized right now.
Speaker 10: It's been heart breaking out and getting my name out there.
Speaker 2: Do we need more police officers? Scott Stringer was adamant
Speaker 2: we need more police officers, do we?
Speaker 9: Yes?
Speaker 3: He's right.
Speaker 10: Interestingly, also in the area of housing, but also in
Speaker 10: the area of police. A lot of the lefties are
Speaker 10: now tacking toward the center because New York voters are
Speaker 10: pretty upset. I've always spoken.
Speaker 3: The last election that's the big thing.
Speaker 10: Absolutely, But we're at a thirty four year low in
Speaker 10: the number of police officers right now in New York City.
Speaker 10: Not surprisingly, you know, crimes up thirty plus percent the
Speaker 10: major felonies since pre pandemic, and so we need to
Speaker 10: get more officers. And thank goodness, we've now got a
Speaker 10: police commissioner, Jessica Tissue's managing them well next month.
Speaker 3: And you climb.
Speaker 2: You got to take Lisa Mateo with you, all right,
Speaker 2: Whitney Tilson, thank you so much in the mayor race.
Speaker 2: What many other mayor candidates in with us here in
Speaker 2: the coming weeks.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 2: We're going to do the newspapers right now, a lot
Speaker 2: to it's a nice diversion from everything going on.
Speaker 3: Divert us Lisa Mantale.
Speaker 12: Okay, so we'll stick with sports since we got the whole.
Speaker 9: Bad thing going We'll go to football.
Speaker 2: Though.
Speaker 12: We've been talking about the transfer portal, right, nil deals. Well,
Speaker 12: what it's actually doing is bringing into a popular college
Speaker 12: football tradition at a lot of schools, and it's the
Speaker 12: annual spring football game.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 12: It's this intra game, you know, interra squad scrimmage.
Speaker 9: It's huge, right because you had, like University of Nebraska had.
Speaker 12: More than sixty thousand people like come out to this.
Speaker 12: But the thing is it's dying down, Like University Nebraska
Speaker 12: is not doing this year. They're one of eighteen programs
Speaker 12: from major conferences decided to just not do the event.
Speaker 12: A few reasons why, Okay, they canceled it for the
Speaker 12: element of surprise, okay, Others because the fears of players
Speaker 12: getting injured. But the big reason is, yes, the transfer
Speaker 12: portal and nil deals. Coaches are getting paranoid that they're
Speaker 12: going to lose players by putting them out in such
Speaker 12: you know, like a big platform, because the roster is
Speaker 12: just so unstable it.
Speaker 2: Can I'm a hacker, I have no idea. It's become
Speaker 2: pro sports period.
Speaker 7: Totally, and every coach is are all the coaches are
Speaker 7: saying it now. So I I think, just what I
Speaker 7: listened to some of the experts here, you have to
Speaker 7: have some type of regulations, some kind of oversight. Okay, here,
Speaker 7: I was meeting with coach Kate last week down in Duke.
Speaker 7: I said, coach, why don't you become the commissioner of
Speaker 7: college athletics?
Speaker 9: You fix it? And he said, no, no, no, no no.
Speaker 3: Let me ask a dumb question. Who's the giant for
Speaker 3: Duke Cooper?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Does he get a degree? No?
Speaker 9: No, he's not even on campus anymore. Probably had he
Speaker 9: had like a four point I know GPA. Of course
Speaker 9: he's I mean, he was an incredible kid. But no,
Speaker 9: he's gonna he's going to try to.
Speaker 3: Give him a bee.
Speaker 4: But it just goes to show you the impact that
Speaker 4: it's having.
Speaker 9: You know.
Speaker 12: Okay, So, Tom, I know you love space.
Speaker 9: So I found this story.
Speaker 12: Okay, is there life beyond Earth?
Speaker 6: It could possible.
Speaker 12: This was in the New York Times. Okay, scientists have
Speaker 12: been looking for it Mars Venus, But now researchers are
Speaker 12: offering when it says the strongest indication of extraterrestrial life. Okay,
Speaker 12: it's not in our solar system, but it's a massive planet.
Speaker 12: It's known as k TO eighteen B. It orbits like
Speaker 12: a star one hundred and twenty light years from Earth.
Speaker 9: Not sure how dartrial, but it's far okay.
Speaker 12: But what they're saying is that they did an analysis
Speaker 12: to the atmosphere and shows that this molecule that on
Speaker 12: Earth has only one known living stores like.
Speaker 3: Living organized this marine algae.
Speaker 9: So what they say is that.
Speaker 12: If there, you know, ever is extraterrestrial life, you know
Speaker 12: it's going to take a long time to come, but
Speaker 12: it could be proof that you know, it's covered with
Speaker 12: like a warm ocean one.
Speaker 3: Hundred and forty two light years.
Speaker 2: All they got to deal is gone afterthoughts, bathroom and
Speaker 2: look at some of the makeup that's five years old from.
Speaker 3: Five years ago. That old. That's signs of new life, Viginia.
Speaker 9: You never know, we may not be alone out there.
Speaker 3: Watch Contact Jody Foster's wonderful movie.
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's great movie. Okay, so I got a problem
Speaker 7: with this next story?
Speaker 12: You do really Okay, you're not a fan of this.
Speaker 3: That's the stories and do I know, guys.
Speaker 6: It's got the inside info.
Speaker 9: Okay.
Speaker 12: So Costco has their Kirkland signature brand, which but it's
Speaker 12: bringing customers to the beer isle.
Speaker 9: Okay.
Speaker 12: So they had the wines, the spirits did well, the
Speaker 12: beer never really did well. But now this new beer,
Speaker 12: it's their signature Hell Style Lagger. It's a Costco only
Speaker 12: released from De Shoot's Brewery and Bend, Oregon, Oregon.
Speaker 6: It's a twelve pack price.
Speaker 12: Said, thirteen dollars and ninety nine cents.
Speaker 9: You can't be so Costco Kirkland Beer.
Speaker 12: Yes, Costco Kirkland Beer. So it's made at this this
Speaker 12: particular brewery. But why they're saying it's a win win
Speaker 12: is because the way they go about it, so Costco
Speaker 12: partners with them to eliminate the sales and marketing.
Speaker 9: Expense for the brewery.
Speaker 12: So the brewery gets this expansive shell mershal you know,
Speaker 12: hi she But it's cheaper for the consumer that way too,
Speaker 12: and that's how they can order it for under fourteen bucks.
Speaker 1: But this is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apples, Spotify,
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