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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now from Blackrock, Amanda line them if we

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Speaker 2: are quiet?

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Speaker 3: Now? Why are the markets so distressed?

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Speaker 4: Good morning? Thank you for having me.

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Speaker 5: I think what's been puzzling to us is that we've

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Speaker 5: had an hour view, a trimming of the left tail

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Speaker 5: risk on the trade policy uncertainty, but we're not completely

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Speaker 5: in the clear in terms of the overhang and the

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Speaker 5: potential hit to margins.

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Speaker 4: As you were discussing in the earlier.

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Speaker 5: Segment, Credit spreads are wider, but they're not reflecting a

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Speaker 5: sharp down turn in growth. As for the yield backdrop,

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Speaker 5: our colleagues in the Blackrock Investment Institute, I know you

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Speaker 5: had way on earlier. This week, we're expecting a steepening

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Speaker 5: of yield curves and a rebuild of term premium, the

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Speaker 5: long ed. I think that's what that march higher and

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Speaker 5: interest rates is reflecting for mere mortals like.

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Speaker 2: Me who never look at this stuff. Where do you

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Speaker 2: glean the most information? Is it in high yield dynamics?

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Speaker 2: Is it in short term? So for fancy full FIH

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Speaker 2: where does a mandoline them turn to learn?

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Speaker 3: What fixed income says?

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Speaker 5: I think the short term funding repo markets are definitely

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Speaker 5: important in times like this.

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Speaker 4: We're staying in.

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Speaker 6: Very first contact. They are there.

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Speaker 5: I would say liquidity is a bit challenged, but they're

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Speaker 5: for sure open and functioning for corporate credit investors. Actually,

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Speaker 5: the new issue debt capital markets has been a really

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Speaker 5: important barometer of confidence during late twenty eighteen, during the pandemic,

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Speaker 5: even during periods of the commodity disruption. The freezing of

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Speaker 5: those capital markets during those periods of time did catch

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Speaker 5: the FEDS attention. We know that right now they're open

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Speaker 5: and functioning, just at a higher cost. We're watching that

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Speaker 5: very closely. The other thing, at a more macro level,

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Speaker 5: is this feedback loop, This really important feedback loop. We

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Speaker 5: would argue between corporate margins, the layoff rate, which is

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Speaker 5: still low, consumer spending and overall economic activity. If pressures

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Speaker 5: on margins are enough for corporates to flex that layoff

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Speaker 5: tool more aggressively, we think that could really cause some

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Speaker 5: concern in the broader economic backdrop.

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Speaker 7: How do you guys feel about credit quality out there

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Speaker 7: in the marketplace.

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Speaker 4: It's an interesting question, Paul.

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Speaker 5: In times like this, the reflexes often just move up

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Speaker 5: in quality.

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Speaker 4: So to speak. We're actually pushing against that a bit.

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Speaker 5: We're actually fine moving down in quality within the investment

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Speaker 5: grade universe because on net, those companies are very well

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Speaker 5: positioned fundamentally heading into this. So we're fine moving into

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Speaker 5: that triple be part of the capital structure, and then

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Speaker 5: even into the high end of high yield. Actually, in

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Speaker 5: recent years, especially since the pandemic, the fundamentals of the

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Speaker 5: high end of high yield look very similar to the

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Speaker 5: low end of investment grade. There's a lot more fluidity

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Speaker 5: between that market in terms of issuers. So we're actually

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Speaker 5: fine reaching down in there. That picking up of additional

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Speaker 5: spread is going to be really important given the volatility

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Speaker 5: and the treasury market to of pushing those total returns.

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Speaker 2: I'm man aligning with us head of macro credit at

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Speaker 2: Blackrock this morning.

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Speaker 7: A lot of good conversations, aren't they pardon BlackRock's pretty big,

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Speaker 7: aren't they there are?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they're on the edge of ginormous. It depends if

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Speaker 2: Jeff Rosenberg is having a good day. The most important

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Speaker 2: quote I've seen here and I put it out on

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Speaker 2: Twitter this morning, this is from the Governor Waller a

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Speaker 2: tail of two outlooks of speech.

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Speaker 3: This is Waller, folks.

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Speaker 2: In terms of output growth with large tariff increases, I

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Speaker 2: would expect the US economy to slow significantly later this

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Speaker 2: year and this slower pace to continue into next year.

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Speaker 2: What will our listeners and viewers debt instruments do?

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Speaker 5: Right, So that's not priced in too credit spreads to

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Speaker 5: the earlier point, there is some room for credit spreads

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Speaker 5: to widen. Now, the magnitude of that growth downturn, we

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Speaker 5: would argue, has yet to be determined. If you assume,

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Speaker 5: like our colleagues and BII do an average effective teror

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Speaker 5: freight of twenty percent using the economic rule of thumb,

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Speaker 5: that's around a two hundred basis point hit to growth

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Speaker 5: and a two hundred basis point upward pressure on inflation.

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Speaker 5: The one thing that I thought was really important from

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Speaker 5: both chair Pal and Beth Hammocks comments yesterday is that

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Speaker 5: it seems that FED officials are acknowledging that the dual

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Speaker 5: mandate could come into tension later this year as unemployment

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Speaker 5: increases and inflation potentially increases. That's the most important part

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Speaker 5: of I think the commentary that I gleaned yesterday, and

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Speaker 5: what that means is that it's not a given that

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Speaker 5: the FED will cut preemptively if we see signs of

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Speaker 5: a growth downturn.

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Speaker 3: Private credit.

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Speaker 8: I don't.

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Speaker 7: I mean, you got to take responsibility for private credit.

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Speaker 9: You're fixing the space private I mean a black rock.

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Speaker 7: I mean, they ruled the world private credit.

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Speaker 9: Are we going to see some stress there?

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Speaker 10: Do you think so?

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Speaker 5: I think, just like liquid credit, private credit is subject

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Speaker 5: to the business cycle and a deterioration in growth. We

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Speaker 5: are expecting an uptick I would say, in liquid credit

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Speaker 5: and private credit and covenant amendments, defaults, that sort of thing.

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Speaker 5: The one interesting point, though, is that in times of

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Speaker 5: private in times of liquid credit market volatility, private credit

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Speaker 5: has usually stepped in as a financing source for a

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Speaker 5: wide range of companies when the syndicated markets don't function

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Speaker 5: as they should, not because of actual fundamentals, but more

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Speaker 5: so technicals, which are a broader conversation.

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Speaker 2: There's the blue button, the detroit Lyons blue button.

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Speaker 3: There's no gray hair in the room.

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Speaker 2: I remember that in every single crisis, the Wall Street

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Speaker 2: angst is a surprise. Are these new fangled private credit

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Speaker 2: private equity things do they have an internal leverage in

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Speaker 2: them that makes them the next surprise?

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Speaker 5: The amplifying channels that were present during the financial crisis

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Speaker 5: when I was actually covering the insurance sector, they're not

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Speaker 5: really there, Tom, And I think one of the maybe

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Speaker 5: understated points on private credit this is long term capital

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Speaker 5: that is locked up and is not really subject to

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Speaker 5: run risk, for example like bank deposits. Right, So you're

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Speaker 5: at matching long term capital with long term investments.

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Speaker 4: That is going to be a stabilizing factor.

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Speaker 5: Now we should not be pollyannish though, but a credit

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Speaker 5: cycle or an economic downturn will cause losses. But can

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Speaker 5: we bridging the gap? Is that a systemic risk? I

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Speaker 5: think is a bridge too far?

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Speaker 9: FED Chairman J.

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Speaker 7: Powell, he's in news today, probably not for the reasons

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Speaker 7: he wants to be What do you expect this FED

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Speaker 7: to do over the next coming months? Is there any

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Speaker 7: role they play here that I don't calm the markets

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Speaker 7: to provide maybe greater liquidity.

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Speaker 5: Sure, so as it relates to monetary policy, we're not

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Speaker 5: expecting them to be preemptive. So we view a rate

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Speaker 5: cut in the first half of this year as unlikely

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Speaker 5: barring a really sharp downturn in the labor market, so

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Speaker 5: you know, payroll gains fifty thousand or less a couple months.

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Speaker 6: I think they have.

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Speaker 4: Calmed the market.

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Speaker 5: When the thirty year hit five percent, we started to

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Speaker 5: hear from Susan Collins and others that they were kind

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Speaker 5: of watching conditions in the funding markets and ready to

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Speaker 5: step in to deploy their very robust toolkit that is

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Speaker 5: left over from the pandemic and the financial crisis. So

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Speaker 5: I do think they're kind of waiting in the wings

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Speaker 5: that if market.

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Speaker 4: Dislocation gets there.

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Speaker 5: But volatility is different than a lack of functioning, and

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Speaker 5: it seems that we're not there.

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Speaker 4: We're not there at the moment.

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Speaker 2: One final question, and it's just as simple as this.

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Speaker 2: Everybody's going to go and flat over a long weekend.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I get that. But the basic idea here

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Speaker 2: is who's selling making prices go lower in bonds? Is

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Speaker 2: it foreigner selling or is it domestic selling? What does

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Speaker 2: black Rock say?

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Speaker 5: We foreigners own around twenty five percent of the corporate

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Speaker 5: bond market, so it's not just foreign holdings of treasuries

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Speaker 5: or foreign holdings of eecutaries. Actually they are a meaningful participant.

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Speaker 5: I do think that if you think about actually, European

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Speaker 5: credit spreads have outperformed US credit spreads significantly over the

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Speaker 5: past few weeks, and so I think while the US

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Speaker 5: had been a destination for capital for a lot of

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Speaker 5: these foreign investors, that may on the margin retreat a bit.

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Speaker 5: That being said, the US corporate bond markets are still

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Speaker 5: the most liquid, deepest, broadest market. So there's not a

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Speaker 5: ton of substitution available in other markets outside.

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Speaker 4: Of you US.

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Speaker 3: Did I do that? Okay? So you're not in trouble

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Speaker 3: with Chris Mead.

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Speaker 4: I think that's he is perfect.

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Speaker 3: Is your bagual work today? I think so, Amanda line

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Speaker 3: and thank you so much. A black Rock.

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Speaker 1: Here, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch US

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Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen

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Speaker 1: on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

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Speaker 1: or watch US live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Anastasia Amroso joins us right now, just absolutely outstanding of

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Speaker 2: having the courage and this crisis, that crisis to stay

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Speaker 2: in the market, chief investment strategist at I Capital, Anna Stagia.

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Speaker 3: Let's get right to it.

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Speaker 7: Now.

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Speaker 2: Do you maintain a bull market call?

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Speaker 6: I don't.

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Speaker 11: I don't not in this near term outlook of time

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Speaker 11: frame anyway, Tom, And you know the reason for that

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Speaker 11: is you really have to parse the approach of the

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Speaker 11: administration right now, which to me really spells short term

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Speaker 11: pain for long term gain. And maybe we get to

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Speaker 11: the long term gain and I'm happy to elaborate what

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Speaker 11: I mean by that, but the short term pain for now,

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Speaker 11: it seems to be something the administration is willing to stomach,

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Speaker 11: and therefore, as market participants, we have to adjust accordingly.

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Speaker 11: And the short term paint time that I'm talking about

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Speaker 11: is the fact that either the consumer wallets will have

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Speaker 11: to absorb what is this round of tariffs, or corporations

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Speaker 11: will have to absorb it. And there's a cost that's

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Speaker 11: associated with moving your supply chain and really rejiggering the

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Speaker 11: way you've done business for the last number of years.

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Speaker 11: So the second quarter that we're in right now, to me,

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Speaker 11: is about this process of adjustment. And you know, yes,

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Speaker 11: the analysts have been cutting earnings. Yes, the S and

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Speaker 11: P five hundred is down fourteen percent from the fifty

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Speaker 11: two week highs. But I still think this negative revision

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Speaker 11: cycle for now is still with us, so near term,

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Speaker 11: I am cautious and defensive in a portfolio kind of stage.

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Speaker 7: I'm just looking at the earnings for the S and

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Speaker 7: P five hundred on the Bloomberg terminal and just you know,

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Speaker 7: a few weeks ago there were twelve percent roughly now

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Speaker 7: it's kind of eight nine percent growth in county year

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Speaker 7: twenty five.

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Speaker 9: What do you think earnings growth shakes out for this year?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it definitely goes lower from here. And

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Speaker 6: you know the way to think about it.

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Speaker 11: For about a five percent increase in the effective terror frate.

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Speaker 11: This is, by the way, according to Goldman Sachs calculations,

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Speaker 11: you can expect one or two percentage points to decline

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Speaker 11: in earnings growth.

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Speaker 6: So if you do the math for the sixteen percent.

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Speaker 11: Effective terror freight, which we most likely have at the moment,

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Speaker 11: that probably takes us down another three to six percent

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Speaker 11: lower on earnings growth. So the S and P five

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Speaker 11: hundred estimates are down about three and a half as

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Speaker 11: you mentioned, and I do think there's three to six

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Speaker 11: percent lower to go so we might end up with

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Speaker 11: roughly flat or maybe plus two percent earnings growth for

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Speaker 11: the year. So the good news with that, though, is

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Speaker 11: that the markets move ahead of that, and the fact

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Speaker 11: that is and P is down that fourteen percent from

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Speaker 11: the fifty two week highs, it does suggest the market

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Speaker 11: is already prepared for, you know, for this cycle of

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Speaker 11: downwards revisions. But in historically, when you look at investment

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Speaker 11: periods like this, it is not a great backdrop for

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Speaker 11: risk assets when you have cyclical slope down and negative

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Speaker 11: earnings revisions.

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Speaker 2: What happens if the tariff crisis is a lesser crisis,

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Speaker 2: if somehow the magnitude pulls back, the President capitulates, whatever,

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Speaker 2: what will happen.

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Speaker 3: To people's four to oh one k if that happens?

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Speaker 6: All right, well, I guess we saw the preview of that.

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Speaker 11: Tom last Wednesday when tariffs were reverse And this is

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Speaker 11: why it is a precarious time for investors. And the

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Speaker 11: way that I do position this right now is, yes,

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Speaker 11: you have to honker down and prepare for the short

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Speaker 11: term pain in your existing portfolios, and at the same

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Speaker 11: time you have to think of this time if you

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Speaker 11: are a long term investor as a moment of opportunity

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Speaker 11: for a long term investor.

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Speaker 6: So I would really sort of decouple.

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Speaker 11: If you have an existing portfolio, you stayed defensive, you

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Speaker 11: lean into stables, you lean into each is, you lean

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Speaker 11: into private credit where you can get paid. But if

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Speaker 11: you do have cash on the sidelines that you've been

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Speaker 11: waiting to deploy, if you can take a.

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Speaker 6: Twelve month plus time horizon, I think that's excellent stage.

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Speaker 3: We know.

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Speaker 11: It can't be bearish for too long talk because obviously

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Speaker 11: is on our side, right, most.

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Speaker 2: Of our guess have a twelve minute horizon. It's good

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Speaker 2: to have ana stage out of twelve months. We're going

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Speaker 2: to continue with Anastasia m Roso here of ICAP and a.

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Speaker 3: Time of crisis.

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Speaker 2: You know, we make jokes about it, folks, but you

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Speaker 2: know I really have to say, boy, there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of tension out there.

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Speaker 9: Sure, people just exhausted, and our job.

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Speaker 3: Is to keep it light, but this is serious stuff.

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Speaker 2: It's great to have someone on a Blackana Stagia put.

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Speaker 3: The bat down with the market opening, Lisa Matteo.

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Speaker 4: I can't help, but good morning, guys.

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Speaker 12: Well shairs have been mixed before the bell slump and

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Speaker 12: health insurance really weighing on sentiment right now. The markets

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Speaker 12: are open, so let's get to the feeling this morning.

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Speaker 12: S and P five hundred up three tenths of percent

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Speaker 12: twenty points five two hundred and ninety six. We have

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Speaker 12: the Dow down a percent, four hundred and eighty two

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Speaker 12: points three thirty nine thousand, one hundred and eighty eight,

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Speaker 12: and the Nasdaq that's up about half a percent ninety

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Speaker 12: two points sixteen thousand, three hundred and ninety eight. The

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Speaker 12: two year yield at three point seven seven percent, that's

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Speaker 12: little changed. They yield on the ten year four point

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Speaker 12: twenty nine percent, and that's up about two basis points.

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Speaker 12: We have the Bloomberg Dollars Spot index has little changed

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Speaker 12: right now, and checking in with a few stocks that

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Speaker 12: were really moving before the belt now at the open,

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Speaker 12: we have United Health down seventeen percent, Hurts up twenty

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Speaker 12: seven percent, and Eli Lilly up thirteen percent.

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Speaker 6: That is your Bloomberg opening bell report.

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Speaker 3: Paul in Tom say people are making money with that

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Speaker 3: or is it just about a lot of losses?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I think you know, across the board, we're seeing

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Speaker 7: you know, the median stock down much more than the

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Speaker 7: overall index.

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Speaker 3: Anastaja Amiros with us.

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Speaker 2: With that, I kept Anastasia, you were so great in

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Speaker 2: a bull market, and the theme was by America, by

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Speaker 2: free cash flow, buy the Mag five, the Mag six,

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Speaker 2: the Mag eight.

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Speaker 3: What ever, is that still in place? Can you own

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Speaker 3: Apple this morning?

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Speaker 2: Well?

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Speaker 11: I think some of it is still in place, Tom,

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Speaker 11: And you know, coming into the year, we did worry

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Speaker 11: about the Max seven stocks. We did worry about semiconductors,

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Speaker 11: and some of it was because of the big tech regulation.

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Speaker 11: Some of it was because of this raft of tariffs

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Speaker 11: that and expert controls that we expected. So for the

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Speaker 11: time being, the first place I would step into would

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Speaker 11: not be the Max seven stocks, and.

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Speaker 6: Semiconductors, for example, will likely.

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Speaker 11: Be challenged if you have this cyclical slowdown in the

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Speaker 11: global economy. They just get caught up in export controls

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Speaker 11: and the overall slowdown. So I don't necessarily think that

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Speaker 11: that part of it right.

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Speaker 6: Now is the first place to be.

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Speaker 11: They're not immune from US economic slowdown either, But I

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Speaker 11: do think that, as I mentioned before, you want to

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Speaker 11: align yourself with the direction of policy right now, and

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Speaker 11: the direction of policy is focus on domestic companies who

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Speaker 11: are sourcing their cost of good soul here in the United.

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Speaker 6: States, and they're mostly selling to the US consumers.

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Speaker 11: So that's why sector like utilities and real estate and

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Speaker 11: consumer staples for example have outperformed. And by the way,

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Speaker 11: also financials are held up as well. So that's why

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Speaker 11: I would focus there right now. But I will say

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Speaker 11: Tom that you know, if this administration succeeds longer term,

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Speaker 11: and if this results in deals that brings production to

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Speaker 11: the United States, if this results in a new world order,

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Speaker 11: we actually heriffs and non TEARFF barriers do drop, then

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Speaker 11: maybe we do have this on shoring investment boom. And

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Speaker 11: so you have to allow for the possibility, especially given

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Speaker 11: the tax policy in the US.

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Speaker 6: Which suits so favorable.

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Speaker 3: She can't be negative. I mean, you know, thank you

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Speaker 3: so much with I capital greatly greatly appreciated.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: This is a really important conversation. I did it chart

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Speaker 2: years and years ago in the Bloomberg which was the

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Speaker 2: decline of manufacturing employment in America, and there's Ebsen flows

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Speaker 2: to it, but if you've run it on a log axis, frankly, folks,

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Speaker 2: it's a really smooth, just technological driven decline and employment

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Speaker 2: is the population of manufacturing in America. J Timmins is

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Speaker 2: the CEO of the Group for Manufacturers and National Association

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Speaker 2: for Manufacturers.

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Speaker 3: As we mentioned, he's out.

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Speaker 2: Of the Ohio state, done a lot of work for

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Speaker 2: various political types of North Carolina's driving the voice of manufacturers.

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Speaker 2: What's the number one thing Jay, the President gets wrong

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Speaker 2: about manufacturing in America? All the stereotypes that are out there,

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Speaker 2: what's President Trump.

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Speaker 3: Most it wrong? You know?

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Speaker 8: I think that what a lot of Americans get wrong

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Speaker 8: is that manufacturing is a very modern, technology driven operation.

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Speaker 8: And it's not. It is not the manufacturing that you

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Speaker 8: might think about from your father or grandfather's days. This

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Speaker 8: is something that has a different type of skill set

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Speaker 8: that's required. And so manufacturers right now are investing a

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Speaker 8: lot in training that next generation of the manufacturing workforce.

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Speaker 2: I saw a chart yesterday that showed the complete lockey

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Speaker 2: in the philosophy folks of individualistic America, the complete failure

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Speaker 2: of America to retrain the workforce after the last forty years.

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Speaker 3: Lightheiser, among others, has been great on this.

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Speaker 2: How in God's name do we start acting like Europe

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Speaker 2: and actually retrain manufacturing types put out of work.

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Speaker 8: So let's not act like Europe completely when it comes

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Speaker 8: to manufacturing. But I agree with you that they have

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Speaker 8: some really good apprenticeship programs, and we we're pretty proud

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Speaker 8: of our apprenticeship work that we do at the National

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Speaker 8: Association of Manufacturers through the formerly known as the Toyota

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Speaker 8: Fame program, so we were spreading that across the country.

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Speaker 8: I think what we really need to focus on, though,

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Speaker 8: if we truly want to grow manufacturing investment here in

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Speaker 8: the United States, we've got to make things less expensive

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Speaker 8: here in this country. So by that, I mean our

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Speaker 8: tax policy twenty seventeen. Those tax reforms, they were, as

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Speaker 8: President Trump said, rocket fuel for manufacturing, investment, hiring, wage

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Speaker 8: growth in our industry. Those things are expiring and we

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Speaker 8: need to get those We need to get those renewed,

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Speaker 8: and so we're waiting for Congress to do that. The

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Speaker 8: regulatory burden is another big cost driver about fifty thousand

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Speaker 8: dollars per employee per year in compliance costs for manufacturing.

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Speaker 2: We need to do credits like LBJ a million years ago,

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Speaker 2: just do direct credits to manufacturing.

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Speaker 8: I think, well, I think tax policy is actually that

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Speaker 8: would help drive that investment, right, So if you have

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Speaker 8: lower tax rates and you're able to compete against the

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Speaker 8: rest of the world's that's really where I think we

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Speaker 8: want to We want.

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Speaker 7: To say at what types of manufacturing jobs do we

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Speaker 7: really want to bring back to the US. We want

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Speaker 7: to bring textile mills back to the US. What do

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Speaker 7: we want to bring back?

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Speaker 8: So I do think that the narrative that manufacturing the

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Speaker 8: manufacturing workforces is in decline is actually a false narrative.

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Speaker 3: We've had.

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Speaker 8: We're right now at about thirteen approaching fourteen million manufacturing employees.

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Speaker 8: That's been pretty stable for the list, stable in the

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Speaker 8: last six, seven, eight years. To give me that, Yeah,

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Speaker 8: but we want to grow it, right, We want to

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Speaker 8: grow that here. And so those jobs, and I appreciate

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Speaker 8: the question, those jobs are really very very different than

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Speaker 8: in the past, so highly highly technical job, so we

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Speaker 8: want people to be trained with a very different set

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Speaker 8: of skills than perhaps even five ten years ago. Right,

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Speaker 8: And so to your very first question, that falls on

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Speaker 8: manufacturers to invest in training their workforce. And I'm pretty

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Speaker 8: proud of what we are doing in the sector right

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Speaker 8: now to accomplish exactly that. So we need, but we

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Speaker 8: need those economic policies that help facilitate that.

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Speaker 7: So it seems like, you know, a lot of folks

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Speaker 7: are now questioning the value of a college education, and

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Speaker 7: a lot of folks are saying.

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Speaker 3: Poa trades are really.

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Speaker 8: You know, talk to us about trades school is so

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Speaker 8: lucky to have an Ohio state person here.

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Speaker 3: Talk to us about the trade schools are.

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Speaker 8: They're becoming extraordinarily important in the manufacturing sector. But I

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Speaker 8: also want to say that we have something for everyone

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Speaker 8: in manufacturing. You know, probably about forty five percent of

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Speaker 8: the jobs in manufacturing require nothing more than a college's

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Speaker 8: part a high school degree, but there are positions that

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Speaker 8: are that require a four year degree or technical training

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Speaker 8: even advanced to all across.

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Speaker 2: I want to go to the pausal motion and I'm

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Speaker 2: going to double barrel here. The Financial Times, I'm sorry,

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Speaker 2: I can't set the author as one of their great newsletters,

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Speaker 2: had that wonderful survey three four days ago. Everybody wants

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Speaker 2: to bring Jay Timman's world back to America more manufacturing jobs,

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Speaker 2: but a huge body of Americans don't want to work

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Speaker 2: in manufacturing. There's a poll spoke volumes. But the videos

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Speaker 2: that have gone viral, which is fat people like me

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Speaker 2: sitting in a machine doing mundane factory work. That's the

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Speaker 2: stereotype Paul was just talking about.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the fear is, you got some four.

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Speaker 2: Hundred and six hundred eight hundred people outside Hong Kong

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Speaker 2: doing make work.

445
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Speaker 3: Do we want to bring those jobs back here?

446
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 8: So I want to grow the types of jobs we

447
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 8: have here in this country. And I know it sounds

448
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 8: kind of tried to say, but I love opening up

449
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 8: the doors to manufacturing facilities for young people. My daughter

450
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:04,199
Speaker 8: Ellie is traveling with me this week. It's her spring break,

451
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 8: and we've been able to go into a couple of

452
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 8: plant floors and I think her eyes were opened about

453
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 8: the possibilities in manufacturing. Those jobs are pretty exciting, They

454
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 8: change constantly, and they provide really a lifelong and presently.

455
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 3: Bud in advance that with all his legislation.

456
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 8: I think that the Chips and Science Act was very

457
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:26,439
Speaker 8: important for this country. I think that the investments that

458
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:29,160
Speaker 8: we made in infrastructure were very important for this country.

459
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 8: And in the IRA Bill that was passed, there were

460
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 8: some policy provisions that we thought were very important as well.

461
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 8: So look, I mean manufacturing changes, and I'm not going

462
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 8: to sit here and say that you know it's manufacturing

463
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 8: is a Republican industry or a Democratic industry. It's an

464
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 8: American industry. And when manufacturing see's been.

465
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 3: In the trenches of the Capitol.

466
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 2: I mean what you just said is that app that

467
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,679
Speaker 2: Republics and Democrats are on the same page.

468
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 8: I think every single person I talked to, I don't

469
00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 8: care if they are a Republican or Democrat. They want

470
00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 8: to manufacturing succeed. Now have these people that went to

471
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,919
Speaker 8: the University of Mission. That's that's still out for debate.

472
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 8: But listen, I understand that there are different philosophies on

473
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 8: how to accomplish that, but I can tell you from

474
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 8: what I when I talk to manufacturing leaders, what they

475
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 8: say is reduce the cost of doing business here in

476
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 8: the United States and we will flourish. And when either

477
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 8: side or both sides focus on that, that is exactly

478
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 8: what we'll see in this country.

479
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 7: The cost of production, the cost of manufacturing in the US.

480
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 7: My understanding from sixty years on this planet in business

481
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 7: education is that it's higher here, materially higher here than

482
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 7: the rest of the world. That's why the jobs went

483
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 7: to other places.

484
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 9: Around the world.

485
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 7: Can the US compete on a cost basis manufacturing wise?

486
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 8: You think yes, and they can do that. And listen,

487
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,159
Speaker 8: some people will say, oh, well, the cost of labor,

488
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,439
Speaker 8: you know what, don't give me that. I want to

489
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 8: pay our people more. I want our people in this

490
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 8: country to be paid more. If we're going to do that,

491
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 8: that means that we've got a lower cost that we

492
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 8: actually have control over. And I sound like a broken record,

493
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 8: but I'm going to go back to tax reform twenty seventeen.

494
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 8: Those reforms were rocket fuel. And now we have members

495
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 8: of Congress saying, well, maybe we don't have to do

496
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 8: quite as much.

497
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 3: As we did before.

498
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:18,360
Speaker 8: Maybe we can raise taxes on small businesses. No, that's

499
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 8: not going to work. That's just not going to work.

500
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 7: What type of jobs, what type of manufacturing would you

501
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,439
Speaker 7: like to see in the US that maybe we're not

502
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 7: doing right now?

503
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 8: Actually we're doing almost everything. I just want to do.

504
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 9: An iPhone here, well versus we have come in.

505
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,119
Speaker 8: I believe that those are the types of jobs that

506
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 8: you'll see coming here with the right policies.

507
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 13: Yeah.

508
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 3: How do you respond technology production?

509
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, in the last couple of days, they've reducted the

510
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 2: Trump are no visit to Texas to try to make

511
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 2: handbags for Louis Vuitton whatever leather projects as well. How

512
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 2: do you respond to the stereotype Americans can't do the

513
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:03,639
Speaker 2: fine work that we get out of Asian manufacturing and employment.

514
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 2: I'll give you one example. Gretch, now owned by Fender,

515
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 2: makes white Falcon guitars in Japan. They're exquisite. Nothing was

516
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 2: ever made like that out of Michigan years ago. How

517
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 2: do you respond to the fact Americans can't do the

518
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 2: fine manufacturing work of Asia.

519
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 8: Well, maybe we should do that in Ohio, but it's

520
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 8: a big part of Ohio right now.

521
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 3: I'm just listen.

522
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 8: I think Americans can rise to the challenge of literally

523
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 8: anything in the terms of manufacturing.

524
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:38,160
Speaker 3: But I do have to say.

525
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 8: This, we can't do everything here in the United States,

526
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 8: much as we would like to, but we can do

527
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 8: a whole lot more. Right now, we have five hundred

528
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 8: thousand open jobs in manufacturing, And to your point, are

529
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 8: people really inspired to go into manufacturing? That is the

530
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 8: job of our Manufacturing Institute to make sure young people.

531
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 3: See pay is a solution there ll pay is the highest.

532
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 8: In any section of the economy, right, the average pay.

533
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 2: I must ask, how do you respond to job loss

534
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:12,439
Speaker 2: in Windsor, Ontario and job loss in Michigan and manufacturing auto?

535
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 3: I mean this is nuts some of that too, right.

536
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 8: Some of that is going south right where there are

537
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 8: lower costs of doing business, and some of that is demand,

538
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 8: and some of that is additional potential costs like tariff

539
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 8: policy that could have a negative impact on our ability

540
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 8: to be productive here in this country to lower the

541
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 8: cost of production.

542
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 7: We're hearing the whole discussion of tariffs are creating a

543
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 7: lot of uncertainty in the marketplace. Are you hearing that

544
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 7: from the manufacturers you talk.

545
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 8: To every single day?

546
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 3: Yeah? I love times.

547
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 7: So are they just are they pulling back on capital investments?

548
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 8: I think that they are very to be very blunt

549
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 8: about it. I think manufacturers are very concerned. They want

550
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 8: to see progress. The President has given himself ninety days.

551
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 8: I don't know what that's down to now, about eighty

552
00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:00,080
Speaker 8: probably left to negotiate deals from around the world, and

553
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 8: we are very hopeful that we're going to see some

554
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 8: policies that are zero for zero tariffs. I understand the

555
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 8: Italian Prime Minister is proposing exactly that right now for

556
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 8: the EU. But we also have a couple other issues.

557
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 8: We've got critical minerals, critical inputs like critical minerals or

558
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:22,199
Speaker 8: machines for machinery for shop floors, chemicals that we can't

559
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 8: do here right now. We've got to figure out a

560
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 8: way to bring those into these discussions as well.

561
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 2: By the way, is there bipartisan support to fix a

562
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 2: pharmaceuticals are made in China or Europe or rare minerals

563
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 2: have been co opted by China.

564
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 3: I don't see the bipartisan support.

565
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 8: Well, what I hear is we want to make sure

566
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 8: that our supply chain is strong and is kind of unbreakable.

567
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 8: If you think back to COVID, our supply chain was

568
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 8: broken and so we weren't able to access things like PPE.

569
00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 8: We were as an organization, we were calling the entire

570
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 8: world to get PPE here to New York at.

571
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,199
Speaker 3: Please to put up your back. I want we gotta go.

572
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 2: But Jay Timmins, this is a manufacturing at your best.

573
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 2: This is Anthony Volpi American made torpedo bat. I want

574
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 2: to ask you Yankees, that is a fine American manufacturing.

575
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 7: Now exactly right, Let's for the great American game basebe there.

576
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 3: You go, yeah, let's hit it out of the park.

577
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 3: You're going to hit it out of the park. And

578
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 3: as the Yankees did last night. Jake Timmins, thank you

579
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 3: so much.

580
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 2: She CEO and President of National Association of Manufacturers can't

581
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 2: say enough about that.

582
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

583
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

584
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us

585
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

586
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 2: Joining us now is the Woman with the Greatest job

587
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 2: a college known to mankind.

588
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 3: Here's the way it is, folks.

589
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 2: You're at home and you're you know, you vote right

590
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 2: down the list GOP and your daughter, your son announces

591
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 2: that they're to the left of Bernie Sanders, so they

592
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 2: want to go out and get the job in America.

593
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: Ali Martell has the job out of George Washington University

594
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 2: with Blue Rose Research. Ali How did you get the

595
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 2: job every kid to the left wants in America? How

596
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 2: did you actually get this plumb position wrapped around Bernie Sanders?

597
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 13: Well, right now, I'm working for a company called Blue

598
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 13: Rose Research, which is an organization that works across the

599
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 13: entire democratic and progressive ecosystem.

600
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 6: But to start, I am a data analyst by trade.

601
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 13: And that's something that I had to self teach through

602
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 13: things like Excel and online courses and also learning a

603
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 13: little bit on the job as an organizer. Right, no

604
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 13: one path to becoming a data analyst, but it was

605
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 13: a fun path.

606
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 3: I set her up for that. Folks. She's fluent in Python.

607
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 2: The way you get into politics in America is to

608
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 2: computer program, Ali Martel, Right now, there was no.

609
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 3: Python going on in Utah for the left.

610
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 2: We saw the gentle lady of the Bronx and the

611
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 2: gentlemen Vermont get in you two sized populations. The arenas

612
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 2: were packed in Utah. Allie, you know there's twelve Democrats

613
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 2: in Utah.

614
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 3: How did that happen?

615
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 1: You know?

616
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 13: I'd love to point to a chart that is in

617
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 13: the retrospective that our team put out that you mentioned,

618
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 13: where we look at overall issue importance to voters. And

619
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 13: when you look at that chart, you see something very

620
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 13: clearly that voters care more than anything else about their

621
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 13: day to day material reality. They care about the economy,

622
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 13: they care about the cost of living, they care about

623
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 13: the costs of their healthcare. And so that's something that

624
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 13: we find not only do voters really care about it,

625
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 13: but they're actually generally aligned with overall the Democratic Party

626
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 13: on a number of economic focus issues. Voters agree with

627
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 13: us that we need to curtail corporate price gouging, that

628
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 13: we need to make sure that the ultra wealthy are

629
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 13: paying their fair share. So we have some really persuasive

630
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 13: thing on this subject matter.

631
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 6: And so but at the same time, if you look

632
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 6: at that.

633
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 13: Same chart, you also see that Republicans still have a

634
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 13: trust advantage on these issues. And so there's a branding

635
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 13: issue here, but there's a lot for us to be

636
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 13: working with because at the end of the day, a

637
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 13: lot of Republican voters do actually agree with our economic platform.

638
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 3: Okay, well, let's keep scoring here, Paul.

639
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 2: To be clear, House Republicans won, Senate Republicans one white

640
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 2: House Republicans won.

641
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 3: That's a score.

642
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 7: Paul go Alie talk to us about the Democratic Party today?

643
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 7: Where is it? Since election day? We have heard nothing

644
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 7: from the Democratic Party. President Trump has taken all the

645
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 7: oxygen out of the room very successfully.

646
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 9: Where's a Democratic Party today?

647
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 3: Yeah?

648
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 13: You know, election night was obviously tough for the Democratic

649
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 13: Party at large. There were a number of victories down

650
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 13: ballot that are obviously getting overshadowed by what happened.

651
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 6: At the top of the ticket.

652
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 13: But you know, it could have been a blowout red

653
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 13: wave that night, and it wasn't. There were a lot

654
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 13: of victories in the House, the Senate, the state legislature's

655
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 13: ballot initiatives, but obviously what happened at the top of

656
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 13: the ticket was devastating and it.

657
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 6: Still wasn't enough. The trends that we're looking at, you know, one.

658
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 13: Of the things that makes it tough to reflect on

659
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 13: is that there were a number of losses across the

660
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 13: board with a number of different demographics. Trump had already

661
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 13: been making in roads with non white voters for some time.

662
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 13: We had already been seeing increased levels of educational polarization,

663
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 13: where college educated voters were becoming more democratic and non

664
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 13: college educated voters are becoming more Republican. The thing that

665
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 13: we were seeing specifically in twenty twenty four that you know,

666
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 13: we're kind of talking about right now as a party

667
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 13: when we look at who Biden won in twenty twenty

668
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 13: that he had started to lose over the course of

669
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 13: his presidency. Those folks really had one big thing comment

670
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 13: they skewed towards being less politically and less likely to

671
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 13: Right's likely to view politics is important to their identity

672
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 13: and so that is new for the Democratic Party, and

673
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 13: it's something that was.

674
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 2: Still I got time for one more quick question here.

675
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 2: We're going to have you back. This has been really

676
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 2: really good, Ali Martel, Matt Eglesia's Rights for Bloomberg opinion.

677
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 2: Democrats need more combative centrists. Where are they right now?

678
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 13: It is fair to say that voters are looking for

679
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 13: somebody to step up and push back on some of

680
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 13: the things that Trump is saying that he's going to

681
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 13: be doing or doing that.

682
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 6: Is going to hurt their day to day lives.

683
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 13: You know, there are some potential, real vulnerabilities from some

684
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,959
Speaker 13: of the policies that the Trump administration is getting behind,

685
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 13: and so people are looking for a change. There's a

686
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 13: reason that global incumbents, not just Joe Biden have been

687
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 13: losing left and right in this post COVID economy. People

688
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 13: are unhappy Whitney status quo. So I didn't think that

689
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 13: there's some merit to Ellie.

690
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 3: We got to run. Thank you so much. We'll do

691
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,800
Speaker 3: this again, Elie Martel with US of Blue Rose Research.

692
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

693
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,920
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android

694
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:20,919
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

695
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

696
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

697
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 2: Whitney Tilson joins us now and if you just need

698
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:31,799
Speaker 2: to know one attribute to Whitney Tilson, I'm sorry. It

699
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 2: is the most coveted MBA distinction out there. It is

700
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 2: a Baker schylar, real deal diversity.

701
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 3: Years ago.

702
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 2: Were you surprised when you were a Baker schylar, Like,

703
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 2: were you sitting in your dorm room staring at the

704
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 2: ceiling and they said, Whitney, good news, You're a Baker scholar.

705
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 3: Is that how it works?

706
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 10: Well, it's just based you know, based on your grades

707
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 10: over two years. It's top five percent of the class

708
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 10: and I'd been getting mostly ones, is what they call

709
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 10: A is there, and so it wasn't completely unexpected, but yeah,

710
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 10: it was, it was, it was. It was a real honor.

711
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:12,320
Speaker 2: The race to me is original, and that, for example,

712
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:17,320
Speaker 2: was Scott Stringer with this huge liberal, progressive Jewish support

713
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 2: from Bella absent and Jacob Javits back. It seems like

714
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 2: the Fabrican character of our political system is breaking. Who

715
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 2: do you represent in this race?

716
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 3: Fed up New Yorkers?

717
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 10: That's I got into the race because I saw a

718
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,280
Speaker 10: bunch of career politicians. This was back after the elections Scott.

719
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 10: To be fair, absolutely thirty plus years, and I think

720
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,720
Speaker 10: the New York City is being poorly managed. It's headed

721
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 10: in the wrong direction. And I didn't see any real

722
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 10: change candidates in the race. And I saw how well

723
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 10: this city was run and how well it did under

724
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 10: Mike Bloomberg. Sort of funny here sitting on a Bloomberg

725
00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 10: show in fact, and in the in years since he

726
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 10: left office, under two career politicians and looking at a

727
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 10: field of more career politicians. I think New Yorkers are

728
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 10: looking for a change agent and I'm the only one

729
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 10: in the race.

730
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 7: And of course Mike Bloomberg is the founder of Bloomberg

731
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 7: LP and this radio vice apparatus.

732
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 9: Here, Whitney, what's your platform? What do you want to

733
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:21,359
Speaker 9: do here?

734
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 10: Mostly get the city's economy growing again. And we are

735
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:30,319
Speaker 10: an economic powerhouse. You mentioned how important New York is

736
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 10: to the country. It's five percent of US GDP just

737
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 10: in the five boroughs of New York. And when I

738
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 10: go to all the mayoral forums and talk with all

739
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 10: the career politicians and debate the issues, all we're debating

740
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 10: is how to spend the tax dollars and which city

741
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 10: program they would fund and create more spending programs. And

742
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,360
Speaker 10: I'm a business person and I understand our tax base

743
00:36:56,520 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 10: comes from our economic base, from wealthy and individuals. People

744
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 10: invest in growing businesses. Everybody wants rising wages. The way

745
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 10: to get there is growing businesses hiring more people. So

746
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 10: I think we can grow this economy by fifty percent

747
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 10: in the next ten years. That's about four point one

748
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 10: percent compounded.

749
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 2: How does someone like Mayor Tilson speak to the constituency

750
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 2: of someone we've had in many times, and that would

751
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 2: be Greg Meeks of Queens. He's the leading Democrat of Queens.

752
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 2: There's all sorts of constituencies under Congressman Queens as Congressman

753
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 2: Meeks within Queens, how do you speak to the machine

754
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:37,359
Speaker 2: if you're an outsider.

755
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 10: Right, I'm going directly to the voters. There is no

756
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 10: path for a first time candidate outsider like me to

757
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 10: win a traditional race. But keep in mind, only twenty

758
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 10: six percent of eligible Democrats voted in the primary last time.

759
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 10: I think the other seventy four percent a lot of

760
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 10: them didn't vote because they didn't they just saw different

761
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 10: flavors of career politicians. So I've got to go around

762
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 10: the machine directly to the voters with a message of change.

763
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:09,920
Speaker 10: And if you look at voters, seventy five percent of

764
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 10: New York City voters think the city's head in the

765
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 10: wrong direction and clearly want change. And so I've got

766
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 10: a position myself as the change candidate and go directly

767
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 10: to them.

768
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:22,799
Speaker 7: You see, you need to change the tax situation in

769
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 7: the City of New York.

770
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 10: Well, I'm the only candidate to my knowledge who said

771
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 10: I will not be raising taxes. The number two candidate

772
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:34,839
Speaker 10: in the polls after Governor Cuomo, is a thirty three

773
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 10: year old socialist named Zorn Mamdani, and he just came

774
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 10: out yesterday with an enormous tax plan to raise corporate taxes,

775
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 10: to raise taxes on the wealthy in New York, and

776
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,280
Speaker 10: we already have the highest tax rate in the city,

777
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 10: excuse me, in the country, and I think the traditional

778
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 10: tax and spend far left plan will would be devastating

779
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 10: and cause further flight of our wealthiest citizens who pay

780
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 10: the bulk of our taxes, as well as our business base.

781
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 3: What investment can we grow?

782
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:13,320
Speaker 2: People don't even know that there's a whole manufacturing heritage

783
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:16,959
Speaker 2: of the boroughs Brooklyn in all there's the romance back

784
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 2: to one hundred years back or so. If there is

785
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 2: business investment here, what kind of business investment is it?

786
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 10: Well, right off the top of real estate, we have

787
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 10: a cute housing crisis in this city, a one point

788
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 10: four percent vacancy rate, the highest rents in the country.

789
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 10: We're losing our working class who literally can't pay their rent.

790
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 10: But we've erected zoning codes, environmental rules, just a stifling

791
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 10: process to get anything built residential and business construction as well.

792
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,240
Speaker 10: So that would be a huge areas.

793
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 2: Do you find evidence of support among Democrat traditional politicians

794
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 2: for this idea? Got to fix the housing crisis in

795
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 2: America or do you feel like a lone voice.

796
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:08,359
Speaker 10: Actually, every candidate in the race is talking about this,

797
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 10: but most of the traditional career politicians are falling back

798
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 10: on their traditional nostrums of government spending, using federal dollars

799
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:25,280
Speaker 10: to build subsidized housing, and they generally speak disparagingly about

800
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 10: those evil landlords exploiting tenants and evicting them and so forth.

801
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:35,360
Speaker 10: And my view is the opposite. With federal governments cuts

802
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 10: likely on the way, We're going to have to tighten

803
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 10: our belts and the only way, the only big pool

804
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 10: of money to do this kind of investment's got to

805
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:45,399
Speaker 10: come from the private sector, and we need to make

806
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 10: New York an attractive place to invest.

807
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 2: So I'm a kid, I'm over in Switzerland. It's forced

808
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 2: with Franks to a dollar. It's just Franks appreciate it

809
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 2: a little bit. And I'm sitting over there across the

810
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 2: valley Velde Reveld, and I can see Whitney Tilson climbing

811
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:06,319
Speaker 2: the matter horn. I can see him in the binoculars,

812
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 2: just like the Disney movie that we.

813
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 3: All grew up with. What's it like? Not in the

814
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 3: Disney movie, but Whitney Tilson, What's it actually like to

815
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 3: climb the matter Horn. It was magnificent.

816
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 10: I've climbed the Mont Blanc, the Matterhorn, the Eiger, and

817
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,839
Speaker 10: then here in the United States. You know, really one

818
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 10: of the iconic climbs of all time was the nose

819
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 10: of El Capitan, which was featured in the movie Free Solo.

820
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:33,359
Speaker 10: But I did it with ropes and a guide, so

821
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 10: you know, if I slipped and fell, I wasn't gonna

822
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:37,160
Speaker 10: I wasn't going to die.

823
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:38,800
Speaker 3: But it wasn't like the Disney movie.

824
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 10: Yes, so you know, in some ways, what I'm doing

825
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 10: here running for Mayor is a seven month extended version

826
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:51,879
Speaker 10: of some of the extreme climbing and other events I've done.

827
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:54,960
Speaker 3: What's been the biggest surprise in this effort so far.

828
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:01,319
Speaker 10: To the upside just what an incredible city this is

829
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 10: and getting out into every corner, how incredibly diverse this is.

830
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:11,240
Speaker 10: Our immigrants, our communities are such a strength and an asset,

831
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 10: and I think it's terrible that they're feeling terrorized right now.

832
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:18,839
Speaker 10: It's been heart breaking out and getting my name out there.

833
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:22,440
Speaker 2: Do we need more police officers? Scott Stringer was adamant

834
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 2: we need more police officers, do we?

835
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 9: Yes?

836
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 3: He's right.

837
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 10: Interestingly, also in the area of housing, but also in

838
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 10: the area of police. A lot of the lefties are

839
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 10: now tacking toward the center because New York voters are

840
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,240
Speaker 10: pretty upset. I've always spoken.

841
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:37,919
Speaker 3: The last election that's the big thing.

842
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 10: Absolutely, But we're at a thirty four year low in

843
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:42,759
Speaker 10: the number of police officers right now in New York City.

844
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 10: Not surprisingly, you know, crimes up thirty plus percent the

845
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 10: major felonies since pre pandemic, and so we need to

846
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 10: get more officers. And thank goodness, we've now got a

847
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:56,359
Speaker 10: police commissioner, Jessica Tissue's managing them well next month.

848
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 3: And you climb.

849
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 2: You got to take Lisa Mateo with you, all right,

850
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:02,879
Speaker 2: Whitney Tilson, thank you so much in the mayor race.

851
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 2: What many other mayor candidates in with us here in

852
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:06,800
Speaker 2: the coming weeks.

853
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

854
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android

855
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

856
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

857
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

858
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 2: We're going to do the newspapers right now, a lot

859
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 2: to it's a nice diversion from everything going on.

860
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 3: Divert us Lisa Mantale.

861
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 12: Okay, so we'll stick with sports since we got the whole.

862
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 9: Bad thing going We'll go to football.

863
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 2: Though.

864
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:36,359
Speaker 12: We've been talking about the transfer portal, right, nil deals. Well,

865
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 12: what it's actually doing is bringing into a popular college

866
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 12: football tradition at a lot of schools, and it's the

867
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 12: annual spring football game.

868
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:43,360
Speaker 3: Right.

869
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:45,840
Speaker 12: It's this intra game, you know, interra squad scrimmage.

870
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 9: It's huge, right because you had, like University of Nebraska had.

871
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 12: More than sixty thousand people like come out to this.

872
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 12: But the thing is it's dying down, Like University Nebraska

873
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:57,360
Speaker 12: is not doing this year. They're one of eighteen programs

874
00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:00,359
Speaker 12: from major conferences decided to just not do the event.

875
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:03,080
Speaker 12: A few reasons why, Okay, they canceled it for the

876
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:06,320
Speaker 12: element of surprise, okay, Others because the fears of players

877
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 12: getting injured. But the big reason is, yes, the transfer

878
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 12: portal and nil deals. Coaches are getting paranoid that they're

879
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 12: going to lose players by putting them out in such

880
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 12: you know, like a big platform, because the roster is

881
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:19,799
Speaker 12: just so unstable it.

882
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 2: Can I'm a hacker, I have no idea. It's become

883
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:25,280
Speaker 2: pro sports period.

884
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 7: Totally, and every coach is are all the coaches are

885
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:30,360
Speaker 7: saying it now. So I I think, just what I

886
00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 7: listened to some of the experts here, you have to

887
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 7: have some type of regulations, some kind of oversight. Okay, here,

888
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 7: I was meeting with coach Kate last week down in Duke.

889
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 7: I said, coach, why don't you become the commissioner of

890
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 7: college athletics?

891
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 9: You fix it? And he said, no, no, no, no no.

892
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:50,880
Speaker 3: Let me ask a dumb question. Who's the giant for

893
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 3: Duke Cooper?

894
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 2: Yeah?

895
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 3: Does he get a degree? No?

896
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 9: No, he's not even on campus anymore. Probably had he

897
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:01,360
Speaker 9: had like a four point I know GPA. Of course

898
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 9: he's I mean, he was an incredible kid. But no,

899
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 9: he's gonna he's going to try to.

900
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:05,759
Speaker 3: Give him a bee.

901
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 4: But it just goes to show you the impact that

902
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:10,400
Speaker 4: it's having.

903
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:10,359
Speaker 9: You know.

904
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 12: Okay, So, Tom, I know you love space.

905
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:14,240
Speaker 9: So I found this story.

906
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:16,760
Speaker 12: Okay, is there life beyond Earth?

907
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 6: It could possible.

908
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 12: This was in the New York Times. Okay, scientists have

909
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 12: been looking for it Mars Venus, But now researchers are

910
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 12: offering when it says the strongest indication of extraterrestrial life. Okay,

911
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 12: it's not in our solar system, but it's a massive planet.

912
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 12: It's known as k TO eighteen B. It orbits like

913
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 12: a star one hundred and twenty light years from Earth.

914
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:40,800
Speaker 9: Not sure how dartrial, but it's far okay.

915
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 12: But what they're saying is that they did an analysis

916
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:45,680
Speaker 12: to the atmosphere and shows that this molecule that on

917
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:47,879
Speaker 12: Earth has only one known living stores like.

918
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 3: Living organized this marine algae.

919
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 9: So what they say is that.

920
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 12: If there, you know, ever is extraterrestrial life, you know

921
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 12: it's going to take a long time to come, but

922
00:45:57,480 --> 00:45:59,560
Speaker 12: it could be proof that you know, it's covered with

923
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 12: like a warm ocean one.

924
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 3: Hundred and forty two light years.

925
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 2: All they got to deal is gone afterthoughts, bathroom and

926
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 2: look at some of the makeup that's five years old from.

927
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 3: Five years ago. That old. That's signs of new life, Viginia.

928
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:16,400
Speaker 9: You never know, we may not be alone out there.

929
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 3: Watch Contact Jody Foster's wonderful movie.

930
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's great movie. Okay, so I got a problem

931
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 7: with this next story?

932
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 12: You do really Okay, you're not a fan of this.

933
00:46:24,680 --> 00:46:27,720
Speaker 3: That's the stories and do I know, guys.

934
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:28,800
Speaker 6: It's got the inside info.

935
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:29,720
Speaker 9: Okay.

936
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 12: So Costco has their Kirkland signature brand, which but it's

937
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:35,840
Speaker 12: bringing customers to the beer isle.

938
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:36,280
Speaker 9: Okay.

939
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 12: So they had the wines, the spirits did well, the

940
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 12: beer never really did well. But now this new beer,

941
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:44,839
Speaker 12: it's their signature Hell Style Lagger. It's a Costco only

942
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 12: released from De Shoot's Brewery and Bend, Oregon, Oregon.

943
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 6: It's a twelve pack price.

944
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:52,960
Speaker 12: Said, thirteen dollars and ninety nine cents.

945
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:57,240
Speaker 9: You can't be so Costco Kirkland Beer.

946
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 12: Yes, Costco Kirkland Beer. So it's made at this this

947
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 12: particular brewery. But why they're saying it's a win win

948
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:04,760
Speaker 12: is because the way they go about it, so Costco

949
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:08,240
Speaker 12: partners with them to eliminate the sales and marketing.

950
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:09,240
Speaker 9: Expense for the brewery.

951
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 12: So the brewery gets this expansive shell mershal you know,

952
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 12: hi she But it's cheaper for the consumer that way too,

953
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:19,120
Speaker 12: and that's how they can order it for under fourteen bucks.

954
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:24,319
Speaker 1: But this is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apples, Spotify,

955
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

956
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 6: Listen live each.

957
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 1: Weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

958
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

959
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

960
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:41,760
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