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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: This is your UFC Fight Night two eight betting preview.

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Speaker 3: Brendan Glasheen with Action Network senior writer Sean Zarillo and

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Speaker 3: former professional MMA fighter MMA analyst Billy Ward.

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Speaker 4: UFC Fight Night two o eight in Vegas.

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Speaker 3: We've got eleven fights to cover, six on the main card,

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Speaker 3: five prelimbs. I say that, but we don't touch on

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Speaker 3: every fight, folks. We get to what we're gonna have

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Speaker 3: action on for the for the weekend. So we'll get

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Speaker 3: to the guys fight of the night, the fight that

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Speaker 3: they are eyeing besides the main event, their picks, underdog plays,

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Speaker 3: favorite props. Billy will give us a look at the

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Speaker 3: DFS angles for the weekend and then best bets. First

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Speaker 3: the main event Yan Blahovich Alexander Rakich, who is a

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Speaker 3: big time prospect. That is the main event for the weekend,

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Speaker 3: A lightweight heavy light heavyweight bout. Excuse me, Sean Zarillo.

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Speaker 3: Kind of a challenging card here in terms of how

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Speaker 3: to approach it from a betting standpoint, So what angle

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Speaker 3: are you leaning and going to take?

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Speaker 5: The biggest question mark in the main event is Yhon's

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Speaker 5: neck injury.

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Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 5: He closes a minus three hundred favorite. In his title

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Speaker 5: fight against Glover to Schera, ended up losing his belt

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Speaker 5: via second round submission, I.

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Speaker 6: Believe, but he never looked right.

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Speaker 5: Glover was cranking on his neck a little bit, looked

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Speaker 5: very uncomfortable, and then he submitted to a rear naked

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Speaker 5: choke before it was even fully locked in. He looked

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Speaker 5: like he wanted to be out of there pretty quickly.

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Speaker 5: Ended up having neck surgery after that fight, which ended

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Speaker 5: up delaying the first booking of this fight with Rockets.

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Speaker 5: So I kind of wanted to bet Yon coming into

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Speaker 5: this fight, especially plus money. He's been consistently one of

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Speaker 5: the most underrated fighters in the UFC. I mentioned he

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Speaker 5: closed minus three hundred against Clover and lost his big favorite.

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Speaker 5: He was plus two to twenty five against Israel outis Sonya,

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Speaker 5: around the same price against Dominic Reyis in that interim

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Speaker 5: title fighter. I believe that might have been a full

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Speaker 5: title unification about round the same price against Luke Rockold

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Speaker 5: over plus two hundred. So he's had a winning streak

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Speaker 5: where he was consistently underrated as an underdog, kept coming

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Speaker 5: through loss. Is a big favorite now. You're getting an

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Speaker 5: underdog price here and technically what I would view as

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Speaker 5: a step down. That said, the knick injury is extremely concerning.

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Speaker 5: I don't really know what to make of it, but

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Speaker 5: skill for skill, I don't think he should be this

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Speaker 5: big of an underdog if view him as the better striker,

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Speaker 5: especially in a kickboxing match, Rocki likes to throw a

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Speaker 5: leg kick. Jan is gonna check every single one of those.

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Speaker 5: Fantastic at checking hit kicks, big part of the reason

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Speaker 5: he beat at asnia better boxer. Potentially in the pocket,

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Speaker 5: I think he's the better striker overall. Maybe Rockich has

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Speaker 5: the grappling upside, perhaps he can hold him down for

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Speaker 5: twenty five minutes. Jan's a black belt and he's a

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Speaker 5: very good grappler, and he's an underrated grappler at that

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Speaker 5: So I think Jan would be decide from a moneyline

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Speaker 5: perspective if I wasn't concerned so concerned.

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Speaker 6: About that injury.

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Speaker 5: I did bet the fight to go to the distance

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Speaker 5: plus one fifteen plus one twenty out there, I would

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Speaker 5: take it as low as plus one ten projected this

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Speaker 5: around fifty three percent, so minus one fifteen like it

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Speaker 5: at plus money. Just don't love the angle of Jan's

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Speaker 5: neck injury. Maybe he just doesn't want to be in

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Speaker 5: there anymore and he gets hurt in a fashion coming

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Speaker 5: off of that next surgery. But I think that's the

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Speaker 5: best way to play the fight in my opinion.

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Speaker 3: Yan to win the fight on the money line plus

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Speaker 3: one sixty five on BETMGM. Rockets ch at minus two

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Speaker 3: hundred Billy Ward your angle.

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Speaker 6: For the main event, Yeah, Sean, most of the points

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Speaker 6: for me. I do think Jan is the far better

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Speaker 6: technical striker. He might have a little bit less power

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Speaker 6: overall than Rockets, but pretty much every other way he's

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Speaker 6: the better striker. I also think he has some grappling upside.

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Speaker 6: We saw him use it against Izzy. I think he's

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Speaker 6: probably gonna be the heavier fighter when they actually step

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Speaker 6: into the cage, and might be able to do a

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Speaker 6: little bit of bully fighting just to keep him down.

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Speaker 6: But unlike Sean, I'm willing to look past the neck

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Speaker 6: injury and land black of it money line. I'm seeing

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Speaker 6: plus one seventy at DraftKings. You know, we just saw

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Speaker 6: Aljamine Sterling coming off in that injury and neck surgery

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Speaker 6: looked fine, looked honestly better than we saw him before

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Speaker 6: the injury, So this could be one of those things

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Speaker 6: that was lingering before and he's actually gonna come out

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Speaker 6: better than prior to the surgery. We obviously don't know that,

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Speaker 6: and that's why we're getting the price we are on Lahovich.

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Speaker 6: But I'm willing to take that chance. And then lak

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Speaker 6: Sean said, I do think there's a much better chance

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Speaker 6: this goes to decision than the markets are giving it.

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Speaker 6: So I'm gonna sprinkle a little bit on Yon by

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Speaker 6: decision at plus four hundred, with the best line also

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Speaker 6: coming in DraftKings.

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Speaker 5: Any thoughts on that, Sean, Yeah, I project pretty much

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Speaker 5: around where Yon's price is by decision, and I saw

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Speaker 5: slight value on Rockets by decision. I think I made

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Speaker 5: that closer to plus one to eighty. You can get

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Speaker 5: some plus two hundred out there. So if you want

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Speaker 5: to pick a side on this, Fike get a bit

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Speaker 5: juicier a price. I would take either by their winning

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Speaker 5: method prop by decision. I think those are those are

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Speaker 5: probably the best numbers in terms of the prop market.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, on the money one side, I agree with Billy.

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Speaker 5: Just prefer that goes the distance and you may get

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Speaker 5: a three to two decision going either way where the

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Speaker 5: margins are a bit thin.

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Speaker 3: And it's certainly tempting with Rockets. Again, he's got big

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Speaker 3: time prospect potential. He is a big time prospect, so

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Speaker 3: we'll see if he turns some sort of a corner

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Speaker 3: and he has some eye popping performance. Moving on too,

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Speaker 3: favorite underdog for the weekend at UFC Fight Night two

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Speaker 3: oh eight. Of course, we encourage all of you to

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Speaker 3: shop those lines, look for the best price when looking

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Speaker 3: for that underdog play. So it's a fun way to

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Speaker 3: get involved in UFC betting. Sean you first favorite underdog play?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so YOUFC debutante here and Miguel Torrez going against

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Speaker 5: Frank Camacho. Camacho double the fight experience, high level competition

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Speaker 5: in the UFC's faced guys like Drewdoverer, Benildarrius, Jeff Neil,

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Speaker 5: the leach that said he's two and five his last seven,

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Speaker 5: but mostly facing top end talent, and now he's taking

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Speaker 5: a step down and competition, or what I view as

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Speaker 5: a step down in competition against the guy coming off

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Speaker 5: a contender series. I like to bet against these guys

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Speaker 5: coming off a contender series when they're facing the UFC

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Speaker 5: VET typically debutantes against uc vets win four percent less

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Speaker 5: than the market lines them four percent less than expectations,

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Speaker 5: So I think there is value typically in fading debutantes,

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Speaker 5: and particularly the guys coming off a Contender series. Camacho

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Speaker 5: vell very well rounded, good striker, has a brigislion jiu

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Speaker 5: jitsu black belt, so I think he has some grappling

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Speaker 5: upside here. Two, he's gotten nuked in his last fight

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Speaker 5: by Justin James, coming in on short notice. He's still

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Speaker 5: only thirty two years old. I don't think he's necessarily shot.

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Speaker 5: I mean, maybe he is, but at thirty two, I

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Speaker 5: don't think that that's any bit of a guarantee. So

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Speaker 5: much more experience, face much better competition going against a

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Speaker 5: debutante and getting a plus money number. I project this

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Speaker 5: fight closer to a coin flip. I think you kind

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Speaker 5: of have to bet him down to even money here.

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Speaker 5: There's just not a lot of tape on Torres, so

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Speaker 5: he's a bit of an unknown. But the fact that

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Speaker 5: he came in through Contender series I think is enough

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Speaker 5: to take a bet against him.

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Speaker 4: Favorite underdog play Billy yeah real quick.

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Speaker 6: I'm I'm with Sean on that one, and I think

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Speaker 6: part of the way the line of reason, the line

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Speaker 6: is what it is. Torre is technically won by tk

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Speaker 6: Owen his Contender Series fight, but if you watch the tape,

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Speaker 6: it looks like he either I gouged or like raked

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Speaker 6: his opponent's eye and then finished him off and Herb

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Speaker 6: didn't see the ipoke. So people that are just looking

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Speaker 6: at the results and the win loss, I think are

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Speaker 6: probably overvaluing Torres a little bit. So I'm totally with

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Speaker 6: Shawn on that. And my favorite underdog is also a

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Speaker 6: UFC veteran against a Contender Series debutant, So I'm looking

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Speaker 6: at Alan Nasimento against Jack Hadley, and Hadley actually looked

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Speaker 6: fairly good in his Contender Series pot but there were

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Speaker 6: just some flaws I saw. He was able to get

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Speaker 6: hit way too many times. He was the taller fighter

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Speaker 6: in that fight, but won't be against Nasimento, and I

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Speaker 6: think Nasimento, who trains with Oliver in the Shooter box guys,

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Speaker 6: is probably gonna have the muay ti to piece him

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Speaker 6: up on the feet. And then Hadley was just really

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Speaker 6: willing to accept the takedown and work off his back.

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Speaker 6: He looked pretty dangerous off his back, but against a

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Speaker 6: guy like Nasimento, who I believe is a Brazilian jujitsu

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Speaker 6: black belt, I don't think that holds up as well,

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Speaker 6: So I think that's a dangerous game to play if

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Speaker 6: Nasimento wants to force the grappling, and I also think

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Speaker 6: he has the striking advantage, Hadley might be the better wrestler.

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Speaker 6: If he's just gonna accept takedowns and try to play

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Speaker 6: from his guard, that's not really a good way to

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Speaker 6: win rounds, especially and then he needs to find the submission,

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Speaker 6: which is tough against the black belt. So you can

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Speaker 6: get Nasimento's high ast plus one in eighty eight on

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Speaker 6: FanDuel and then again on top of all that, just

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Speaker 6: everything Sean saying we've got a UFC veteran I'll be

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Speaker 6: at only one fight taking on a guy fresh off

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Speaker 6: the Contender series. I usually look to fade those Contender

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Speaker 6: series guys as well.

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Speaker 5: And it's not even the fact that he only is

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Speaker 5: one fight. He trains with Charles Olvera trains at a

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Speaker 5: really good camp. Hattleie more of a grappler coming from England.

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Speaker 5: We never see those Those British grapplers really have a

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Speaker 5: ton of success. So I just generally trust the camp

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Speaker 5: that Nasimento is coming from in the background that he's

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Speaker 5: trained in.

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Speaker 6: As opposed to Hattlee as well.

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Speaker 3: John and Billy's fight of the night, they are targeting

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Speaker 3: a dec versus Marvel matchup Ryan Stan Superman, the hot

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Speaker 3: prospect who is ranked going into this fight, taking on

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Speaker 3: Eon Coute Laba, the Hulk. Cute Laba is at minus

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Speaker 3: two twenty five on the money line for the fight.

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Speaker 3: Span it plus one eighty five. Sean, why is this

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Speaker 3: uh fight something that jumps out to you? And how

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Speaker 3: is the what's the right way to go about it?

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Speaker 4: Violence?

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Speaker 5: The under one and a half here lined around minus

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Speaker 5: one fifty minus one sixty. I'm actually leaning towards playing

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Speaker 5: that under one and a half. Both guys very very

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Speaker 5: fast starters. Neither has particularly great cardio. Now, Kutlaba did

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Speaker 5: show improved cardio in his last fight, thought that was

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Speaker 5: the best he's ever looked, But he is the smaller

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Speaker 5: fighter here. Span four inch is taller four inch reach

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Speaker 5: advantage hits very hard. I think Kutlaba is a bit

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Speaker 5: more durable, bit better cardio, but this is a high

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Speaker 5: variance fight and I'm not really interested in laying on

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Speaker 5: minus two twenty five on Kutalaba. Maybe if it was

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Speaker 5: closer to minus two hundred, I would consider jumping in,

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Speaker 5: but probably looking at that under one and a half rounds,

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Speaker 5: maybe I'll jump in on Kutlaba live after round one

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Speaker 5: of his price improves because I do think he maybe

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Speaker 5: has a cardio advantage. Both these guys fast starters. I

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Speaker 5: expect kutz Labi will ultimately win because he does have

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Speaker 5: the wrestling and grappling advantage.

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Speaker 6: In my opinion.

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Speaker 5: Span hasn't looked great when you're able to put him

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Speaker 5: on the ground, but he's a very powerful guy. Wouldn't

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Speaker 5: be surprised if either finds a finish on the feet

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Speaker 5: and rather quickly. Span a bit fragile though once he

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Speaker 5: gets hit he tends to fold rather quickly as well,

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Speaker 5: so a bit.

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Speaker 6: Of a front runner.

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Speaker 5: I think Kutalaba maybe sustains more for fifteen minutes, give

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Speaker 5: more decision equity, maybe more finish equity too, So I

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Speaker 5: do see him as a justifiable favorite, Just don't love

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Speaker 5: the price. Not really sure how I'm betting this yet.

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Speaker 5: Like I said, I lean to the under one and

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Speaker 5: a half rounds. The fight not to go the distance

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Speaker 5: leave it's around minus four hundred, that under one and

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Speaker 5: a half at minus one forty minus one fifty, I

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Speaker 5: think is a fair number considering how both of these

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Speaker 5: guys fight, and we should see a lot of action early.

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Speaker 3: What do you got for is Philly, how are you

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Speaker 3: you leaning to the dog here.

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Speaker 6: To a degree? Sean said minus four hundred fight not

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Speaker 6: to go to a decision is now minus four to

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Speaker 6: fifty is what I'm seeing all across the industry, So

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Speaker 6: definitely really high odds of stoppage. And then we've also

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Speaker 6: got span it between plus one eighty and two hundred,

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Speaker 6: depend on where you're looking, So that's saying he's got

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Speaker 6: a a one third chance of winning, and this fight

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Speaker 6: is what eighty percent chance to finish inside the distance,

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Speaker 6: So you can get SPAN at plus four hundred inside

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Speaker 6: the distance if you parlay those things together at Caesar's

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Speaker 6: and it's just a pure math play like that should

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Speaker 6: really be closer to plus three hundred if you math

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Speaker 6: it out at all the best lines you can get

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Speaker 6: on those. But I'm also a Sean where I think

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Speaker 6: Kudlaba has a huge cardio advantage, So if I don't

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Speaker 6: get span after the first round and we're seeing a

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Speaker 6: better line on Kutlaba. I'm definitely gonna hit that live

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Speaker 6: bat too. Just you know, we haven't seen great cardio

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Speaker 6: from either guy, but Span really empties the tank right away.

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Speaker 6: Even when he's going to get taken down, he tries

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Speaker 6: to squeeze guillotines to death instead of staying calm and

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Speaker 6: getting back to his feet. If he doesn't get it early,

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Speaker 6: I think he loses. So that way, if we play

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Speaker 6: the inside the distance of plus four hundred, hopefully you

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Speaker 6: can get the live bet on kude Laba plus money

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Speaker 6: make money either way.

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Speaker 4: Another light heavyweight heavyweight out on the main card.

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Speaker 3: One of six on the main card this week, five prelimbs. Again,

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Speaker 3: you're tuned into the Action Network podcast UFC Fight Night

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Speaker 3: two oweight betting preview Brendan glass Sheen with Billy Ward

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Speaker 3: and Sean Zarillo.

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Speaker 4: Moving on to the prop market.

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Speaker 3: Favorite prop on the board for the weekend, Sean gonna take.

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Speaker 5: Nick Maximov by submission here at plus three fifty, projected

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Speaker 5: it closer to plus three fourty eight. Now I'm not

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Speaker 5: a fan of Maximov whatsoever, but I'm really not a

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Speaker 5: fan of Andre Petrowski either. I think both guys have

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Speaker 5: had very soft runs to start their UFC careers. Maximov

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Speaker 5: might have even lost his last fight to Punas Soriano.

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Speaker 5: That's that I expect this to mostly be a grappling affair.

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Speaker 5: I do think Petrowsky is the better natural wrestler, but

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Speaker 5: the way Maximov fights, he just sort of clings on

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Speaker 5: to you, finds a way to get you down to

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Speaker 5: the mat at Petrowski's cardio isn't particularly great, so ultimately

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Speaker 5: I expect maxwob to grind on him for a large pie.

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Speaker 5: This part of this fight hired Petrowski out and eventually

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Speaker 5: maybe locking a submission. View him as the better submission grappler.

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Speaker 5: Maybe not the better wrestler, but the better grappler overall.

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Speaker 5: So Maximov by submission plus three fifty won't be a

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Speaker 5: big bet for me. If you want to throw it

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Speaker 5: in round Robins, et cetera, I think it's a good

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Speaker 5: way to juice up some parlays.

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Speaker 4: Billy, you got something for us with some really long odds.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm getting way off the board here on this one,

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Speaker 6: but this is supposed to be the long shot prop segment,

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Speaker 6: so everybody bear with me, that's right, But I'm targeting

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Speaker 6: the Verma Janderobo versus Angela Hill fight, and you can

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Speaker 6: get this fight to end by split or I'm sorry,

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Speaker 6: Janderobo to win by split or majority decision at plus

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Speaker 6: eight hundred on DraftKings. But I'm just seeing a stylistic

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Speaker 6: thing here that I think can be tricky for judges,

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Speaker 6: where Angela Hill throws a ton of volume and Verma

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Speaker 6: usually gets outstruck. If you look at her USC stat

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Speaker 6: she takes more than she gives. But Verma also usually

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Speaker 6: gets a takedown after three for a bunch of attempts.

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Speaker 6: So this is gonna be really hard for judges. So

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Speaker 6: am I gonna give the round to the girl who

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Speaker 6: landed more strikes even though she got taken down at

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Speaker 6: the end? Am I going to do the give it

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Speaker 6: to the person who got the takedown but it took

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Speaker 6: three or four attempts and her opponent was defending it.

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Speaker 6: And you know, judges really aren't great at weighing that

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Speaker 6: grappling for striking thing because it's hard. There's no good

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Speaker 6: way to quantify how many strikes a takedown is worth

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Speaker 6: or whatever. So I really think this is one that

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Speaker 6: has a better than usual chance ending that way. I

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Speaker 6: like Janderoba, just with the grappling upside, where I think

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Speaker 6: judges tend to air a little bit on the side

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Speaker 6: of the takedown, though they've got much better that in

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Speaker 6: recent years. But you can also just get the fight

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Speaker 6: to go to split her majority. At plus four twenty five,

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Speaker 6: Angela Hill has I think gone to a split decision

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Speaker 6: in three of her last five fights. This is just

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Speaker 6: a common thing with her and a lot of female

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Speaker 6: fights where they're not doing a ton of damage. But

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Speaker 6: my money's on Genderoba. But I like both of those

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Speaker 6: bets at fairly long odds.

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Speaker 5: I liked that Verna by submission a little bit. I

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Speaker 5: think if she gets on top of Hill should be

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Speaker 5: very dangerous. We've seen Angela get mounted rather quickly. She

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Speaker 5: doesn't normally face this level of submission grapplers typically, so

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Speaker 5: I think Verna could finish her. But I agree if

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Speaker 5: this goes the for full fifteen minutes Andngi's definitely going

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Speaker 5: to be landing the more significant strikes on the feet

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Speaker 5: and it's going to be a tough one to score.

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Speaker 5: She is a split decision. Queen usually comes out on

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Speaker 5: the wrong end of those, so I like where Billy's

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Speaker 5: mind is going. I'd also take a look at this

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Speaker 5: submission prop as well.

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Speaker 4: And now on too Sleeper.

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Speaker 3: Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions

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Speaker 3: I use it for mine. It's a game changing product

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Speaker 3: unlike anything else in the industry, and now you could

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Speaker 3: First, in any sport, choose two or more players that

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Speaker 3: you like and pick their over or under for example,

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Speaker 3: number of points in basketball or hits in baseball. Then

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Speaker 3: choose the amount of money you want to enter into

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Speaker 3: the contest.

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Speaker 4: If you pick correctly, you.

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Speaker 3: Can win anywhere from two to over twenty five times

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Speaker 3: the money you put in. The main reason I'm excited

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Speaker 3: about over under on Sleeper is that it's the only

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Speaker 3: app where I can join my buddies contests and play together.

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Speaker 3: It's not a built in group chat where I can

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Speaker 3: see and copy my friend's picks with a tap of

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Speaker 3: a button.

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Speaker 4: It's insanely fun to write it out together.

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360
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Speaker 4: Okay, back to the show.

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Speaker 3: Uh, it is a weird slate Billy because with the

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Speaker 3: eleven fights, it kind of messes up with how you

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Speaker 3: project not only ownership but salaries too. I mean, we've

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Speaker 3: only got three fighters that are north of nine thousand dollars,

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Speaker 3: got a bunch of fighters in.

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Speaker 4: That eight K range and a bunch of that seven

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Speaker 4: K range per Huge.

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Speaker 3: But again it's like, how do you go about roster

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Speaker 3: and putting together a roster for this weekend when it's

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Speaker 3: just when there's a couple less fights. It does make

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Speaker 3: it a little tricky.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean the biggest thing is obviously you just

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Speaker 6: don't want to have your lineups duplicated in tournaments. It

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Speaker 6: might be unavoidable in some of the huge ones, but

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Speaker 6: my favorite way to do that and I've mentioned this

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Speaker 6: in the past, is just don't spend all their close

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Speaker 6: to all of your salary. We've only got what was it,

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Speaker 6: three fighters at nine thousand or more, Yes, yeah, and

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Speaker 6: Maximov is the only one I'm really all that interested in.

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Speaker 6: Sean kind of laid out the case why and has

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Speaker 6: problem with him, but he just lands a ton of takedowns.

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Speaker 6: I think he has like fourteen or fifteen across two fights.

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Speaker 6: That also means he's not good at keeping a guy down.

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Speaker 6: You can't land two takedowns in a round if you

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Speaker 6: don't let the guy back up. But from a daily

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Speaker 6: fantasy standpoint where you get five points for each of

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Speaker 6: those takedowns, I'm gonna be pretty heavy on Maximov. And

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Speaker 6: then we've got Kute Laba span that at minus four

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Speaker 6: to fifty to end inside the distance. You probably want

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Speaker 6: one of those guys, But it's a little scary. They

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Speaker 6: both start so hard and could tire her out that

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Speaker 6: they could rack up a lot of points in the

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Speaker 6: first round, but then that one could end up pretty boring.

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Speaker 6: And then you know, I'm thinking about adding the Sean

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Speaker 6: Zillo section to my DFS article there right every week,

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Speaker 6: and it is the underdog female fighter who I love

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Speaker 6: for cash games, which Sewan has put me on, and

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Speaker 6: this week it's Amanda Hebis. She throws a ton of

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Speaker 6: volume in most of her fights. It's really unlikely in

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Speaker 6: betting markets to stop early, and Caitlyn chakougi and doesn't

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Speaker 6: stop anyone. So this is another one where I think

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Speaker 6: Hebas has a little bit of grappling slash submission upside.

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Speaker 6: But even if she does win the fight, she's probably

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Speaker 6: gonna put a decent put up a decent score for

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Speaker 6: cash games, I'm mostly avoiding that for tournaments. You know,

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Speaker 6: if Heabs gets a quick submission, could she end up

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Speaker 6: in the optimal Yeah, I don't think it's the likeliest,

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Speaker 6: but she's like my favorite cash game play.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I like that a lot Chekegan typically goes to

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Speaker 5: decision bit of a point fighter. I could see her

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Speaker 5: hurting Rebos on the feet, but I agree that's if

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Speaker 5: if Rebas doesn't get a finish on the ground, it's

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Speaker 5: likely to go the full fifteen minutes, So she should

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Speaker 5: definitely put up some volume and give you a pretty

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Speaker 5: safe floor in that fight at a pretty decent price

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Speaker 5: as well.

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Speaker 6: It's a little bit scarier just because she's going up

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Speaker 6: a weight class. Heabus that is so like, if her

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Speaker 6: chin wasn't great at one fifteen, how's it going to

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Speaker 6: do it one twenty five. I'm slightly concerned to that,

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Speaker 6: but it's an ugliest play. There's only eleven fights, guys.

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Speaker 6: We got to take on some risks somewhere here. We

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Speaker 6: can't get everything we want.

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Speaker 4: Right, You're gonna have to.

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Speaker 3: There's gonna be some implied risk when you find fighters

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Speaker 3: in that seven k range, and definitely opportunities for a

434
00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 3: balance build with just three fighters north of nine dollars dollars.

435
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,880
Speaker 3: Good stuff is always Billy on the DFS front. Let's

436
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:07,720
Speaker 3: move on to best bets for UFC Fight Night to

437
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:09,439
Speaker 3: await Sean Zarrella will start with you.

438
00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, Billy, I already talked about the Hattie Nasimento fight.

439
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 5: He's on the Nacimento's side. I actually like this fight

440
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 5: to go to a decision. At minus one fifteen, projected

441
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 5: it closer to fifty or sixty percent and minus one fifty.

442
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,160
Speaker 5: I actually could see this playing out in a similar

443
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,080
Speaker 5: way to the Gatto and Cortes fight that we had

444
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 5: last week, where Hattiley is laying on top of Nacimento's guard.

445
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 5: Nasmento's trying to threaten with submissions and isn't able to

446
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:35,440
Speaker 5: pull them off.

447
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:36,359
Speaker 6: Now Nacimento on.

448
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:39,159
Speaker 5: The feet, I actually might prefer his striking, and I

449
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,879
Speaker 5: think getting him at the underdog price is pretty solid.

450
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:43,640
Speaker 5: But I am worried that he just gets held down

451
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,320
Speaker 5: because he does like to play guard and he's content

452
00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,120
Speaker 5: to lay there. So if they end up just laying

453
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,640
Speaker 5: on top of one another for fifteen minutes, I would

454
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,119
Speaker 5: not be surprised that all. I think both guys are

455
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:56,439
Speaker 5: pretty durable as well. Hattley's undefeated, his career, looks like

456
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 5: a pretty tough guy, so projected this closer to sixty

457
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 5: percent minus one fifty. Would probably bet it up to

458
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 5: minus one twenty five minus one thirty. The fight to

459
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 5: go to a decision between Hadlee and aasamenta.

460
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:08,119
Speaker 4: All right, billy, take us home when he got best bet.

461
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,199
Speaker 6: Yeah. As to Shun's point, real quick, this seems like

462
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 6: a fight. That fight seems like whoever shoots first is

463
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,600
Speaker 6: gonna win that round because both guys are just so

464
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 6: happy to fall to their back and play guard. And

465
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 6: when you have two guys who are both really good grapplers.

466
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 6: I don't think that's a good strategy, but we'll probably

467
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 6: see it. But uh no, I'm looking at the Amanda

468
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 6: Hebus money line. You know, I mentioned her in the

469
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,400
Speaker 6: DFS section. You can get her as high as plus

470
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 6: one sixty on Caesar's and I think she just throws

471
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,560
Speaker 6: so many more punches than Chakogi in where if it

472
00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:37,400
Speaker 6: doesn't look like either of them are landing a lot

473
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,199
Speaker 6: of damage, that looks really good to the judges when

474
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 6: you're landing more. We've seen this come up in recent fights.

475
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,960
Speaker 6: Our laskeevers Kallier was a big one where a lot

476
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 6: of people were upside at the decision. But if it

477
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,399
Speaker 6: doesn't look like either fighter is hurting the other one,

478
00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 6: it's really hard for judges to go buy anything based

479
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 6: on the total amount. And I also think Hebus is

480
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 6: the better grappler. I hope she's able to get inside

481
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 6: the much longer reach and get a takedown. She's got

482
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,359
Speaker 6: a little bit of submission upside, but I think she

483
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,439
Speaker 6: probably takes it on volume if it stays standing for

484
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 6: most of the time, and as long as she can

485
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:05,640
Speaker 6: mix in a takedown or two. I think at plus

486
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 6: one sixty. That's a pretty good price on her.

487
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,880
Speaker 5: My concern with Hebos and the grappling here you mentioned it, Billy.

488
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 5: She's coming up from one fifteen to one twenty five,

489
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 5: six inches shorter and a lot of her takedowns or

490
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 5: upper body stuff. She's a judo player, so I don't

491
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 5: know if she's going to be able to get the

492
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 5: leverage to take Choot to the ground. But I do think,

493
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,720
Speaker 5: you know, like you said, the stats, the volume on

494
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:29,359
Speaker 5: the feet could be relatively close. Chukegian is a point fighter.

495
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 5: Don't really see her knocking out girls at a high clip.

496
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,919
Speaker 5: Maybe since Rebus is a bit smaller, she gets her

497
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 5: with additional power coming up. But I just don't see

498
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 5: the grappling upside necessarily for Hebus here, which is why

499
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:44,440
Speaker 5: I ended up going against her. But listen, she's an

500
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 5: adorable fighter. Her personality is completely infectious. I like watching

501
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,160
Speaker 5: her fight, so it's very tough for me to bet

502
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 5: against her, but I may have to lay a little

503
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:54,360
Speaker 5: bit of juice unschooed.

504
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,639
Speaker 6: Yeah, I actually like that hype discrepancy. I had a

505
00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,440
Speaker 6: judo background as a fighter, and I had a much

506
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 6: easier time taking down taller, longer people, just because once

507
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 6: you can get inside and get hooked some stuff, you

508
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 6: can control them a lot easier. Like I could never

509
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 6: take down like the five, seven hundred and seventy pound wrestler,

510
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 6: but those tall, skinny fighters like that, where I could

511
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 6: see that being an advantage for her. It's going to

512
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:15,880
Speaker 6: be harder for her to get inside, but once she does,

513
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 6: I think it's actually easier to land the takedowns.

514
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 3: Good stuff, all right, Chen's always great to talk to

515
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 3: you every Friday on the Action Network podcast that.

516
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,360
Speaker 4: Is when you get your UFC betting previews.

517
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,880
Speaker 3: Thus concludes the UFC Fight Night to Await betting preview

518
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 3: for Action Network senior writer Sean Zarillo, former professional MMA

519
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 3: fighter Billy Ward, Brendan Glasheen.

520
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 4: Again every Friday, we join you.

521
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,399
Speaker 3: Good luck this weekend, folks, and we will catch you

522
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 3: next week. See yeah,