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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Blueberg Day BAQT podcast. Good Morning is Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: the twenty fifth of March. I'm Caroline Hepge here in

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Speaker 2: London and.

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Speaker 3: I'm Stephen Carolin Brussels.

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Speaker 1: Coming up today, the US pitches a plan to end

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Speaker 1: the Iran War while simultaneously ordering more troops to the region.

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Speaker 2: Why the conflict in the Middle East may pose an

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Speaker 2: existential threat to China's economy.

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Speaker 3: Plus tough talks ahead.

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Speaker 1: The party of Denmark's Prime Minister wins the general election

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Speaker 1: but fails to secure a majority, setting the stage for

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Speaker 1: difficult coalition negotiations.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg has learned that the United States has drafted a

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Speaker 1: fifteen point plan aimed at ending the Iran War. Sources

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Speaker 1: say the proposal has been delivered to Tehran via Pakistan.

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Speaker 1: Details of the plan remain unclear, However, President Trump has

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Speaker 1: publicly stated that any agreement must include a ban on

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Speaker 1: Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon or enriching uranium. The White

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Speaker 1: House's public position on the conflict has shifted rapidly in

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Speaker 1: recent days. Trump says Iran has offered a gift as

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Speaker 1: a show of good faith and negotiations, which he claimed

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Speaker 1: are already underway.

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Speaker 4: They did something yesterday that was amazing. Actually, they gave

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Speaker 4: us a present, and the president arrived today. It was

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Speaker 4: a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money.

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Speaker 4: And I'm not going to tell you what that president is.

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Speaker 1: His comments came as all sides continued to conduct air

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Speaker 1: and drone strikes around the region. The death toll from

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Speaker 1: the war continues to rise. According to the US based

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Speaker 1: Human rights Activist News Agency, more than three thy two

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Speaker 1: hundred people have been killed in Iran. Lebanon's Public Health

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Speaker 1: Ministri says attacks there have killed more than one thousand people.

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Speaker 1: In Israel, more than twenty people have been killed, and

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Speaker 1: thirteen American soldiers are also known to have died since

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Speaker 1: the war began.

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Speaker 2: The jomp administration has ordered another two thousand soldiers to

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Speaker 2: the Middle East, as the White House refuses to rule

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Speaker 2: out using true on the ground. Bloomberg understands that the

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Speaker 2: latest orders are in addition to the five thousand American

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Speaker 2: troops already en route to the Middle East. US Defense

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Speaker 2: Secretary Pete Hegsith sees the military as a form of

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Speaker 2: pressure in any talks.

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Speaker 5: We see ourselves as part of this negotiation as well.

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Speaker 5: We negotiate with bombs. You have a choice. As we

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Speaker 5: loiter over the top of Tehran. As the President talked

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Speaker 5: about about your future.

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Speaker 6: President has made it clear that you will not have

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Speaker 6: a nuclear weapon. The War Department agrees. Our job is

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Speaker 6: to ensure that, and so we're keeping our hand on

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Speaker 6: that throttle as long as as hard as it's necessary.

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Speaker 2: Hegsath did not address the reports of soldiers being deployed

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Speaker 2: to the region. The move comes as pressure grows on

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Speaker 2: the US to take action to reopen the Strait of Hormus,

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Speaker 2: a vital waterway for global oil and gas flows.

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Speaker 1: AARAN says foreign ships are allowed to cross the Strait

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Speaker 1: of Hormoes as long as they abide by IT rules.

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Speaker 1: In a letter to members of the International Maritime Organization,

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Speaker 1: the country says safe passage would be granted to foreign

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Speaker 1: ships which weren't supporting acts of aggression against it. Some

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Speaker 1: sources of tol Bloomberg Around has also started charging transit

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Speaker 1: fees to commercial vessels. Black Rock CEO Larry Fink was

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Speaker 1: asked by the BBC's Simon Jack what the long term

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Speaker 1: consequences of the war might be.

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Speaker 7: If there's a cessation of war and yet it remains

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Speaker 7: a threat, a threat to trade, a threat to the

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Speaker 7: to the streets of harmouth, then I would argue that

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Speaker 7: we could have years, years of you know, above one

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Speaker 7: hundred dollars closer to one hundred and fifty dollars oil.

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Speaker 1: What happens to the global economy If that happens, how

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Speaker 1: do we see it.

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Speaker 7: Will have global recession?

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Speaker 1: Larry Fink added he could see high oil prices affecting

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Speaker 1: the expansion of artificial intelligence in the US and Europe.

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Speaker 1: Commodities markets of an exceptionally volatile ast. Traders try to

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Speaker 1: gauge when the war will end and the straight hormus

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Speaker 1: would be reopened.

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Speaker 2: Russia has seen its oil revenue search to the highest

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Speaker 2: in four years. The Kremlin is benefiting from the war

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Speaker 2: in the Middle East thanks to soaring prices and increased

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Speaker 2: exports after sanctions were eased. Michael Klauser, in Supreme Commander

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Speaker 2: and Chief of Defense of the Swedish Armed Forces, discusses

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Speaker 2: how the tariff relief is fueling Putin's war machine A lot.

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Speaker 8: I would say, not the least that that Iran and

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Speaker 8: Russia are linked already from the beginning, which we know,

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Speaker 8: but also the fact that that oil prices are feeding

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Speaker 8: into an already let's say, a war economy and a

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Speaker 8: production capacity that is quite dramatic already in terms of

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Speaker 8: providing providing Russian military with the ballistic missiles.

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Speaker 2: Russia's oil income had been going down before the US

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Speaker 2: and Israel launched their campaign against Iran. However, the war

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Speaker 2: reversed the decline and doubled Moscow's exports. In the last

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Speaker 2: three weeks. On a four week average basis, the gross

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Speaker 2: value of Moscow's crude exports jumped to one point seventy

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Speaker 2: one billion dollars per week, the highest since June twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty four.

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Speaker 1: The party of Denmark's Prime Minister and Meta Fredrickson won

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Speaker 1: the most seats in the general election, but failed to

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Speaker 1: secure a majority. It was the worst result of the

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Speaker 1: Social Democrats in over a century, with just under twenty

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Speaker 1: two percent of the vote. The coalition of left wing

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Speaker 1: parties won eighty four seats, while rightling in groups won

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Speaker 1: seventy seven. Ninety seats are needed for a majority. The

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Speaker 1: centrist moderates will now be key to forming the next government.

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Speaker 1: The election campaign was heavily influenced by US President Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's threats to take over Greenland, which is part of

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Speaker 1: the Danish Kingdom.

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Speaker 2: Italy's Georgia Maloney is calling on her Tourism Minister, Daniella

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Speaker 2: Santanke to resign after a defeat and a key referendum.

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister issued the demand in a statement late

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Speaker 2: yesterday as she attempts to clean house after the government

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Speaker 2: lost a national vote to overhaul Italy's judicial system on Monday.

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Speaker 2: Santanke is accused of false accounting and other allegations, but

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Speaker 2: denies wrongdoing. Her exit would follow the resignations of two

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Speaker 2: Justice Ministry officials, which Maloney said she welcomed. Sank Tanke

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Speaker 2: didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from Bloomberg News.

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Speaker 1: And those are our top stories, but just one other

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Speaker 1: we wanted to share with you this morning. On NASA's

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Speaker 1: galactic ambitions. Bimbergs, Lauren Grush and Sana Pshanker have been

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Speaker 1: reporting that the US Space Agency is to invest twenty

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Speaker 1: billion dollars over the next seven years, with two big goals,

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Speaker 1: one to develop a base on the surface of the

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Speaker 1: Moon and two to build a new spacecraft to reach Mars. Now,

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Speaker 1: both projects are meant to satisfy an executive order that

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Speaker 1: President Trump signed in December. He wants US astronauts back

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Speaker 1: on the Moon by twenty twenty eight and to begin

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Speaker 1: building a permanent lunar outpost by twenty thirty. Now, this

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Speaker 1: is an ambitious project and timeline for the Space Agency,

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Speaker 1: particularly time of budget constraints as well. And now they're

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Speaker 1: going to convert part of the plan for a space

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Speaker 1: station on the Moon, which is full science fiction territory

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Speaker 1: for me. Anyway that they're going to They had plans

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Speaker 1: for an orbital space station on the Moon. Now they're

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Speaker 1: going to put it on the Moon instead. So this

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Speaker 1: will involve conversing some of the units that are being developed,

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Speaker 1: including that being built by the European Space Agency to

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Speaker 1: be involved in it as well. But lots of questions

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Speaker 1: about I suppose where the money is going to come from.

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Speaker 1: You have to get Congress to approve this funding as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they want private companies perhaps involved. You know, NASA

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Speaker 2: has been working those in terms of sort of cruing

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Speaker 2: missions to the Moon, more regular flights.

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Speaker 1: I think is generally part of the problem as well,

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Speaker 1: they want, you know, to make make it the low

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Speaker 1: cost carrier version where you can get there much more easily.

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Speaker 2: Well, you wouldn't want to get stuck as those astronauts

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Speaker 2: recently did up there for you know, longer than expected

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Speaker 2: and trying to get back.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, would you want to go to the Moon?

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't say no. Someone offered, I don't think i'd

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Speaker 1: be in for the preparation, but sure.

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Speaker 3: Why not? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Exactly, it's all about the science. Do we have enough

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Speaker 2: sizes for us to get to me? And I don't know. Right,

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Speaker 2: let's think about the markets then this morning, so equities

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Speaker 2: rallying right now, the MSCI All Country World indexes up

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Speaker 2: by three tenths of one percent. You also see the

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Speaker 2: MSCI as your Pacific Index up by one point eight percent.

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Speaker 2: This is supported by the slump in oil prices and

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Speaker 2: with markets thinking about the optimism around a US peace plan,

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Speaker 2: but also buffeted by the warriors around the Straits of

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Speaker 2: hor moves one hundred dollars about for brain crude futures

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Speaker 2: down by three point six percent, and you also have

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Speaker 2: European stop futures therefore pointing higher, up nine tenths of

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Speaker 2: one percent, also gains in sovereign bonds ten uere. US

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Speaker 2: treasury yields down two basis points, gold rising for a

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Speaker 2: second day, and you also have a bitcoin up by

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Speaker 2: one point three percent this morning. Still lots of volatility

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Speaker 2: in markets, but the pressure coming off a little bit

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Speaker 2: in crude markets.

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Speaker 1: Well, in a moment, will bring you more on how

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Speaker 1: the war in Iran presents you risks for China, plus

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Speaker 1: more on the results of the Danish general election as well.

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Speaker 1: But let's bring you up to date with the latest

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Speaker 1: developments in the Middle East and this fifteen point piece

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Speaker 1: plan drafted by the United States intended to end the conflict.

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Speaker 1: Our Deputy Washington Beer chief Laura Davison joins us now

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Speaker 1: for more. Laura, what do we know about what's in

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Speaker 1: this piece plan?

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Speaker 10: We know very little. We know that it's a fifteen

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Speaker 10: point plan.

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Speaker 11: We know that Pakistan sort of served as the intermediary

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Speaker 11: between the US and Iran to get the plan that

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Speaker 11: the US drafted to the Iranians, But beyond that, it's

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Speaker 11: very unclear. You know, Trump has said publicly that there

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Speaker 11: are fifteen points of agreement between Iran and the US.

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Speaker 11: That is, you know, at least publicly. The Iranians have

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Speaker 11: have signaled no such thing. The other thing that Trump

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Speaker 11: has said that would be in any deal is that

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Speaker 11: there would be a prohibition against Iran ever obtaining a

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Speaker 11: nuclear weapon or being able to enrich uranium. So that's

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Speaker 11: at least kind of the contour of this deal. But

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Speaker 11: sort of what those other fourteen points could look like

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Speaker 11: a are highly unclear. This continues to be sort of

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Speaker 11: a you know, Trump has been out there very vocally

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Speaker 11: saying that there are diplomatic talks, that there are these

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Speaker 11: this sort of movement towards a peace deal, but both

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Speaker 11: Iran has said that the US is just negotiating with

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Speaker 11: itself and that you know, is continuing to launch strikes

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Speaker 11: as well as Israel sort of Trump's Trump and the

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Speaker 11: US's main partner in this also have continued to really

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Speaker 11: bombard Iran today.

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Speaker 2: So Nour, is there any indication that Yvonne is open

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Speaker 2: to diplomacy?

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Speaker 10: Very little so far.

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Speaker 11: You know, there have been sort of signs that there

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Speaker 11: have at least been some back channels open with Oman,

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Speaker 11: with Pakistan, with Egypt sort of serving in those roles

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Speaker 11: to sort of trade some messages back and forth. But

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Speaker 11: you know, Trump has cast these discussions of sort of

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Speaker 11: very robusts that there could potentially be you know, a deal,

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Speaker 11: you know, in the coming days. He sent a five

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Speaker 11: day deadline, you know that he extended from Monday evening

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Speaker 11: on terms of attacking energy infrastructure, saying that there was

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Speaker 11: progress on talks. Trump also indicated that Iran had offered

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Speaker 11: a present, sort of an unspecified present, but that was

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Speaker 11: very valuable and had to deal with the energy moving,

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Speaker 11: energy supplies moving through the strait of horror moves. But

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Speaker 11: all of this, you know, is very unclear. It's really

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Speaker 11: coming from the US side, and Iran has not confirmed

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Speaker 11: or or really weighed in at all except to say

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Speaker 11: that they are continuing the fight.

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Speaker 1: But the US, the same time, Laura is deploying more

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Speaker 1: forces to the Middle East. Does that tell us that

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Speaker 1: a further escalation is still likely.

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Speaker 10: At least certainly possible.

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Speaker 11: This is really what's been confusing, as you have the

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Speaker 11: President saying one thing that he's you know, looking for peace,

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Speaker 11: looking for a deal, whereas the Pentagon is sort of

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Speaker 11: moving troops and you know, very costly endeavors at the

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Speaker 11: exact same time, you know, So there was an announcement

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Speaker 11: just recently that there would be two thousand troops from

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Speaker 11: the eighty second Airporn Division.

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Speaker 10: Those are sort of special forces. This is on top.

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Speaker 11: Of a deployment of five thousand marine troops that was

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Speaker 11: announced a couple of days ago. Those folks are in

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Speaker 11: transit and these special forces would follow. This indicates that

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Speaker 11: the US is at least keeping their options open for

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Speaker 11: some sort of escalation and you know, even perhaps some

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Speaker 11: sort of you know, ground strike, ground troop invasion. You know,

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Speaker 11: the US, you know both if you look at sort

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Speaker 11: of the history just going back to Venezuela and also

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Speaker 11: to Iran, as it's added more forces, there have been

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Speaker 11: more military actions than have followed.

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Speaker 2: Okay, thank you so much, Laura for being with us.

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Speaker 2: Our Deputy Washington Bureau Chief, Laura Davison, we appreciate you

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Speaker 2: being with us taking us through, yes, the latest US

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Speaker 2: peace plan.

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Speaker 3: When it comes to Iran, the war.

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Speaker 1: In the Middle East may be an existential threat to

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Speaker 1: China if the war is prolonged.

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Speaker 3: That's according to Bomberg.

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Speaker 1: Companion columnist Chili Ran has been writing about the ties

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Speaker 1: between the city of Yuwu, Iran and Gulf States, and

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Speaker 1: sheley joins US now from more sally.

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Speaker 3: Why is this war so dangerous?

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Speaker 12: Possibly for China because China is terrified of global recession.

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Speaker 12: They don't want to have They don't want to see

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Speaker 12: a collapse in consumer demand and demand destruction. What happens

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Speaker 12: with China is that we all know China's domestic economy

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Speaker 12: is not working out right. The property downturn has been

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Speaker 12: ongoing for over four years. Consumer domestic consumption is very weak,

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Speaker 12: and the last two years the saving grades. The only

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Speaker 12: bright spot in Chinese economy basically is exports because the

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Speaker 12: global economy was doing pretty well. Now, in the event

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Speaker 12: that you know, like an oil and energy shock, drags

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Speaker 12: the global economy into a recession, then the Chinese government

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Speaker 12: is in big trouble. They will have to find the

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Speaker 12: physical space to stimulate the economy and to reach the

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Speaker 12: so called four point five to five percent growth goal,

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Speaker 12: and they don't want to see that.

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Speaker 2: Ye Wu itself is a massive Chinese wholesale hub. So

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Speaker 2: it's quite interesting to understand you're reporting about what's actually

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Speaker 2: been happening there in the past four weeks and the

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Speaker 2: impression that it gives you on the ground.

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Speaker 9: Right.

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Speaker 12: So e Wu is the world's biggest the small commodities

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Speaker 12: a wholesale hub, and in the first two months of

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Speaker 12: the year before before this whole around war happened, exports

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Speaker 12: from e Will actually increased the fifty percent year on

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Speaker 12: here following twenty five percent increased last year, so basically

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Speaker 12: the city was not affected by Donald Trump's terriffs at all.

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Speaker 12: But in March, vendors in e would say that the

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Speaker 12: Middle Eastern customers, who are very well sought after in EU,

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Speaker 12: they basically disappeared. Even the ones the buyers who were

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Speaker 12: in EU, they were rushing to find flights home. They

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Speaker 12: There were state media reports that some Iranian customers they

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Speaker 12: actually left so that they could join the army to

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Speaker 12: defend the sovereignty of their country. So local vendors were

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Speaker 12: quite unhappy about that because customers from the Middle East

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Speaker 12: they bring big business. In the last five years, Middle

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Speaker 12: Eastern customers, the Chinese exports to the Middle East basically doubled,

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Speaker 12: exceeding one hundred and twillion in twenty twenty five, and

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Speaker 12: in the first two months of the year exports to

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Speaker 12: the Middle East were still going very well, and all

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Speaker 12: of that basically stopped.

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Speaker 1: So what sort of debate is happening now in China

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Speaker 1: about the potential effects of the war and what sort

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Speaker 1: of response might there be from Beijing.

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Speaker 12: So right now, pretty much everyone agrees that in the

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Speaker 12: short term China is fairly well insulent because China has

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Speaker 12: very good oil reserves, and the people pretty much agree

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Speaker 12: with that, and then the Chinese government can do price

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Speaker 12: controls and slow down the rights in field and the

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Speaker 12: gasoline cost. But over the long run there is this debate.

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Speaker 12: There are some so called the wolf warriors. They basically

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Speaker 12: say that, okay, this is great for China because you know,

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Speaker 12: the US military has splashed all its military weapons in

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Speaker 12: the Middle East over around and then there will be

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Speaker 12: no weapons left in the Far East in the Pacific,

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Speaker 12: and that would be good for China's ambition towards Taiwan.

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Speaker 12: And some say that, okay, then China will win the

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Speaker 12: AI rate arms race because you know, the US data

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Speaker 12: centers are still powered by a natural guest, right, and

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Speaker 12: then electricity generation in China is a large hippers or

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Speaker 12: China will wing this race, that the AI race will

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Speaker 12: go from the scarcity of AI chips to electricity and

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Speaker 12: China will wing. But the government is not liking those

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Speaker 12: Hawkish comments.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, Shulely, thank you so much for being with us.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg opinion columnist Shuley Wren just talking about the fallout

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Speaker 2: from the war around the war in the Middle East

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Speaker 2: from Beijing's perspective. Thank you stay with us. More from

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Daybakeube coming up after this. Now, let's get to

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Speaker 2: the results of the Danish election. The per minister Metter

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Speaker 2: Frade since ruling party winning the most seats but falling

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Speaker 2: short of and over majority. The snap poll was called

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Speaker 2: in the wake of President Trump's threats over Greenland joining

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Speaker 2: US now has been both Copenhagen chief Sarah Cholin, good morning,

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Speaker 2: good to speak to you. So the Social Democrats getting

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Speaker 2: the most seats, what happens next in terms of the

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Speaker 2: formation of the government. I did note that there were

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Speaker 2: twelve parties in all vying for votes in this election.

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Speaker 13: Yeah, exactly, And it's been a very fragmented election. The

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Speaker 13: Danes are just really really split. Metapolics and Social Democrats

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Speaker 13: still the biggest Danish party around twenty two percent of

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Speaker 13: the votes, but that's not a lot for the biggest party,

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Speaker 13: so she really really has to bring out now her

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Speaker 13: best negotiation skills to try and form a government coalition.

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Speaker 13: But it's not really going to be easy because a

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Speaker 13: lot of these twelve parties they set up redlines.

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Speaker 9: Thinks you just simply.

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Speaker 13: Won't give up one in order to support a government.

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Speaker 13: She might have to bring in some of her left

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Speaker 13: leaning allies. She might have to bring in some of

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Speaker 13: the right leaning parties. But at this of all of

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Speaker 13: this is the foreign the current foreign minutes that last

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Speaker 13: year go Asmussen, that's the one that stood up against

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Speaker 13: Donald Trump, and he's emerged as this king maker. He

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Speaker 13: really holds the deciding mandates now, whether it's going to

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Speaker 13: be government A or government B.

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Speaker 1: So when we look at the outcome matter, Fredericks and

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Speaker 1: call this election to capitalize on her popularity after the

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Speaker 1: standoff with Donald Trump over Greenland. Has that bet paid off?

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Speaker 1: And how important will Greenland be in what happens next?

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Speaker 9: It has certainly paid off.

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Speaker 13: When we go back to December, before Trump, the writer

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Speaker 13: has sart of taking over Greenland. She was polling around

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Speaker 13: eighteen percent. She came out of a really bad local

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Speaker 13: election in Copenhagen, and she was reading from that, and

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Speaker 13: then Trump came in and there was this rally around

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Speaker 13: the fact in Denmark, and she came out of this

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Speaker 13: election around twenty two percent of the vote, so that

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Speaker 13: is a lot better than what we're looking at in December.

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Speaker 9: So yes, it has paid off.

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Speaker 13: We will likely see Trump and just your politics in

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Speaker 13: general play quite a big pad in forming the coalition.

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Speaker 9: The centrist, the current foreign.

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Speaker 13: Minister last year of ASMOSOM has said we need to

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Speaker 13: stand together.

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Speaker 9: We need a.

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Speaker 13: Party across fractions of government. We need everyone at this

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Speaker 13: specific time in history to stand together.

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Speaker 9: As one united named nation.

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Speaker 13: Because we are only six million, there's not really time

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Speaker 13: to be such a fact for political landscape as we

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Speaker 13: are right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, six million voters in Denmark and the country has

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Speaker 2: some of the highest living standards anywhere in the world.

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Speaker 2: So it was also interesting to understand the campaign from

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Speaker 2: other perspectives because there was also talk of a wealth tax.

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Speaker 2: There's also been hardening in terms of immigration policy in Denmark.

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Speaker 2: What did we learn from the election results in terms

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Speaker 2: of what is the most important thing, what are the

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Speaker 2: most important subjects for Danes right now?

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Speaker 13: We learned that immigration is still quite an important issue.

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Speaker 13: The parties that are strongly against lots of immigration like

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Speaker 13: this tough immigration stand They did quite well and we

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Speaker 13: had the very right wing I'd.

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Speaker 9: Like to come cohered to the AfD of Denmark.

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Speaker 13: They gata SURG polls not as big as in many

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Speaker 13: other European countries, but still quite a big step up

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Speaker 13: for Denmark for him, so anti immigration is still.

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Speaker 9: A big issue.

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Speaker 13: We're also seen voters support paties that are big on climate.

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Speaker 9: Clean drinking water has emerged a major theme animal.

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Speaker 13: Welfare, specifically in pig farming, so anti migration and climate

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Speaker 13: has been two of the main issues that come out

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Speaker 13: of this.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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