Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Robert D. Kaplan, over a stretch of over twenty books,
Speaker 2: just simply speaks of the map. If you're one of
Speaker 2: those believers in get out the map and look at it,
Speaker 2: Kaplan is definitive. His new tour de force is Wasteland
Speaker 2: a world in permanent crisis. This is coming off my
Speaker 2: book of the Year a few years ago, The Loom
Speaker 2: of Time from Morocco to Persia. Robert Kaplan, thank you
Speaker 2: so much for joining us. I'll cut to the chase.
Speaker 2: You say technology has permanently changed our map, our geography.
Speaker 2: Is that true of this war with Israel and Iran?
Speaker 1: Ah? Yes, it is to an extent, because Iran is
Speaker 1: a long distance from Israel on the map. But yet
Speaker 1: the Israelis and of course the Americans have condensed that
Speaker 1: distance through technology. The America excuse me, The Americans sent
Speaker 1: B two bombers all the way from the center of
Speaker 1: the United States, uh white Man Air Force based in
Speaker 1: Missouri to bomb Iran, so that Iran is as close
Speaker 1: to America, you know, in in operational terms, as you know,
Speaker 1: as Kansas was to the Indian Wars in the middle
Speaker 1: of the nineteenth century. And let me just make one
Speaker 1: thing very clear. Yeah, people who were saying that this
Speaker 1: could this could lead to another you know, forever forever war,
Speaker 1: Middle East quagmire, they're making a mistake of category. Iraq
Speaker 1: is in different was in a different category than Iran.
Speaker 1: Iraq was in the category of Vietnam and Afghanistan in
Speaker 1: Korea in the sense that it involved tens of thousands
Speaker 1: of ground troops which got stuck literally in a quagmire.
Speaker 1: Here we're dealing with just air and naval assets. The
Speaker 1: war could go in a number of ways. There could
Speaker 1: be blowback, but as long as we stick with air
Speaker 1: and naval assets, there's not going to be a quagmire.
Speaker 1: There's going to be something different. It may be something bad,
Speaker 1: but it will simply exist in a category different from
Speaker 1: those four forever wars Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
Speaker 3: Robert, what do you expect the response from Iran will be?
Speaker 1: I think there will be a response. It may take
Speaker 1: a few days or a few weeks. It may be
Speaker 1: a terrorist attack in Europe. It may be an attack
Speaker 1: by Shia Irani and Shia militia in Iraq on US troops,
Speaker 1: not too far away. There certainly will be blowback, but
Speaker 1: it's going to take a few months at least to
Speaker 1: really register whether this decision by President Trump to bomb
Speaker 1: the Iranian nuclear facilities was a wise or an unwise decision.
Speaker 1: It will unfold stages.
Speaker 2: And you're the loom of time, and folks, I can't
Speaker 2: say enough about this is your single concise read on
Speaker 2: the span from Morocco to the Eastern Arab world and
Speaker 2: over to Persia. You talked there, Robert Kaplan, about the
Speaker 2: giant of your academics, which is Clifford Gertz, and it's
Speaker 2: the idea of culture described for our American audience today.
Speaker 2: The Persian called for culture, the Persian culture extant, since
Speaker 2: that's a theocracy of nineteen seventy nine.
Speaker 1: Yes, Persia. Iran is not the Arab world. It is
Speaker 1: not Iraq, it is not Syria, it is not Libya.
Speaker 1: Iran has been a nation state of sorts on the
Speaker 1: Iranian plateau for thousands of years. Iran was the world's
Speaker 1: first superpower and antiquity. You're dealing with a highly sophisticated,
Speaker 1: highly evolved organ you know, culture and civilization where there
Speaker 1: is not one center of political power but multiple centers
Speaker 1: of political power. You know, I've been to Iran several times.
Speaker 1: It takes two hours in traffic to drive from one
Speaker 1: end of Tehran to the other. Being in Iran is
Speaker 1: like being in Egypt or India, and that is it's overwhelming.
Speaker 1: You feel overwhelmed. So the so the idea that you
Speaker 1: know that a singular attack on nuclear facilities is going
Speaker 1: in a linear fashion to lead to a regime change
Speaker 1: is far too simplistic. They're they're may you know, they're
Speaker 1: very very well likely could be a regime evolution, as
Speaker 1: I call it, but it will involve many other factors,
Speaker 1: and it will be internally driven. It won't be imposed
Speaker 1: from the outside.
Speaker 3: Robert, what do you think our US strategy should be
Speaker 3: towards Iran at this point? Again, the over the weekend,
Speaker 3: a significant escalation and military action should be are strategic view?
Speaker 1: Well, at this point, we should try, as President Trump said,
Speaker 1: to keep it a one off that we try as
Speaker 1: hard as we can not to attack again, not to
Speaker 1: respond again. You know, if they're just going to do
Speaker 1: a desultory pin prick response like they did after President
Speaker 1: Trump bordered the assassination of Kassamsulemani, the head of the
Speaker 1: El Kutz force back in twenty twenty. In January twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: I think it was there's no need to respond, you know.
Speaker 1: The policy now should be to lower the temperature, not
Speaker 1: talk about changing a regime from the outside. Because the
Speaker 1: damage has been done. It will take days or weeks
Speaker 1: to more properly assess exactly how much damage was done.
Speaker 1: But the idea that the Uranians are just going to
Speaker 1: rebuild their nuclear facilities is very simplistic. They're never going
Speaker 1: to rebuild it to the point that Fardeau or Natans was,
Speaker 1: you know, way before they get to that point, the
Speaker 1: Israelis will be able to attack them. So this attack
Speaker 1: really did do substantial damage.
Speaker 3: What you expect Israel to do here because a lot
Speaker 3: of folks are suggesting this is a unique time for
Speaker 3: Israel here in terms of exerting and expending and it's
Speaker 3: its role within the Middle East and adding to its security.
Speaker 3: Is this a unique time for Israel?
Speaker 1: Yes, it is because you know, Benjamin Netanyahu, love em
Speaker 1: or hate him, is a world historical figure. People may
Speaker 1: forget Clinton, Obama and Biden and half of the European
Speaker 1: prime ministers, you know, who will be forgotten in the
Speaker 1: course of the decades. But decades from now, people will
Speaker 1: be writing biographies about Netta Yaho, you know, because he's
Speaker 1: been in power so long, and the way he was
Speaker 1: able to, you know, achieve tactical surprise in his attacks
Speaker 1: on Iran, and then I'll use the word manipulate President
Speaker 1: Trump into taking action on his own is is nothing
Speaker 1: short of extraordinary. I think with the is the smart
Speaker 1: thing for the Israelis to do now now that they
Speaker 1: got help from the US, is to give the US
Speaker 1: something that is start the process of withdrawing from Gaza.
Speaker 2: Robert Keppin one final question, was going to run on
Speaker 2: with the day and again, folks, I can't say enough
Speaker 2: about Wasteland. Robert Cappan's new effort in The Loom of Time,
Speaker 2: my book of the year, you wrote a monograph. I'm
Speaker 2: going to call it The Tragic Mind, taking us back
Speaker 2: to Greek mythology and how we need tragedy to move forward.
Speaker 2: Does President Trump have a tragic mind in there somewhere?
Speaker 2: Is there a philosophy of tragedy? Is a foundation to strength?
Speaker 1: Very hard? Yeah, Tom, That's a very hard question to answer.
Speaker 1: Because I don't sense it. I think he's too vain
Speaker 1: and superficial to really have a deeply, a deeply developed
Speaker 1: sense of tragedy. But I could be wrong. I could
Speaker 1: be wrong on this because the person who really did
Speaker 1: have a deeply evolved sense of tragedy was President George H. W. Bush,
Speaker 1: who is very cautious and another. You know, the great
Speaker 1: thing about his administration was not what happened, but all
Speaker 1: the bad things that did not happen because of his governance.
Speaker 2: This has been wonderful, Robert Caplan, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: It's a must read, folks. Wasteland World in permanent Crisis,