WEBVTT - Surveillance: Brexit With London Mayor 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.800 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane jay Ley. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:16.960 We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, 0:00:17.040 --> 0:00:23.480 investment and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.240 Bloomberg dot Com and of course on the Bloomberg Now. 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:30.680 The coronavirus crisis will shrink London's economy by forty four 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:34.440 billion pounds and if a rebound could take until summer two. 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:36.680 Now that's a warning. Today in a new report by 0:00:36.760 --> 0:00:40.360 g l a economics unit at City Hall, with culture, leisure, 0:00:40.479 --> 0:00:44.200 retail and hospitality all hard hit by lockdowns and social 0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:47.960 distancing measures. The report also says one could see a 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:49.920 four and a half percent drop in the number of 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:52.360 jobs in the capitol. Well, I'm very pleased to be 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:56.400 joining joined by the Mayor of London citycon who joins 0:00:56.440 --> 0:00:59.040 us from the historic cutting sark in Granwich. The world's 0:00:59.080 --> 0:01:02.600 only survivor been tea Clipper Mayor, and I think built 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:05.720 in and I don't know whether it goes to the 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:08.000 kind of deals that you think London and the UK 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:12.119 should try and have post brexit. But how damaging would 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:14.040 a no deal Brexit be for the city of London 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:17.839 and good morning, good morning, it's great to join you. Okay, Look, 0:01:18.400 --> 0:01:22.320 we as a country of our economy is in the 0:01:22.400 --> 0:01:26.240 professional services, were world leaders in finance and in law, 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:31.920 in tech, in creative industries, and unfortunately the current deal 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:35.160 be negotiated by the government that fails to address the 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:39.120 concerns that these industries have in relation to continue to 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:42.520 business with our biggest trading partner, partner of the European 0:01:42.720 --> 0:01:46.480 Union as it is, it appears even the flimsy deal 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:49.920 the government's negotiating may not get over the line. So 0:01:49.960 --> 0:01:53.400 we are very concerned about the possibility of a no 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:55.800 deal brexit that means not having a deal with our 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:59.960 biggest trading partner, or a deal that doesn't reflect our economy. 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:03.200 And the irony, of course is is the USA now 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:05.840 has a president who's put in the USA back on 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:08.960 the world stage, and we the UK may become a 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:12.880 very lonely country in the future. So what's the best 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:16.080 hope for financial services in this very late stage and 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:19.520 Brexit talk. Well, at the moment it appears that a 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:23.560 number of our sectors they were hoping for a good 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:26.760 deal with the EU aren't included. And so even if 0:02:26.800 --> 0:02:28.760 the deal is reached with the European Union this week, 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:31.760 and we hope one is the problem is for our 0:02:31.760 --> 0:02:36.440 professional services, finance, legal, tech, creative industries. They will have 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:40.480 less favorable access to the Single Market than they had 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:43.320 as members of the EU or during this transition period. 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:46.600 And that's why it's really important that the UK government 0:02:47.320 --> 0:02:52.200 understands the importance of issues like equivalence, financial passport in 0:02:52.520 --> 0:02:55.720 this issue of attracting talent to London and the fact 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:59.840 that our ecosystem relies upon people as well as capsule 0:02:59.880 --> 0:03:02.360 and services moving from London to the parts of the 0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:06.000 European Union. If we go back into a lockdown that 0:03:06.040 --> 0:03:08.200 looks more like a Tier three in London, and if 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:10.640 we have no deal brexit, would that be the perfect store. 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:17.520 What would job glasses actually look like in that scenario. Well, 0:03:17.680 --> 0:03:20.200 London is very similar to other global cities around the world, 0:03:20.280 --> 0:03:23.240 like New Yorker. We've suffered hugely because of the reduction 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:27.400 in footfall caused by the pandemic. Think of industries and 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:33.000 sectors that rely upon footfall retail, hospitality, culture, ledger and 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:36.080 so there's those sectors which normally contribute hugely to our 0:03:36.080 --> 0:03:41.480 countries coffers, wealth and prosperity have really struggled, and the 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:46.480 concern is the combination of a continuation of this pandemic. Yes, 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:49.280 there is great news with the vaccine, but a combination 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:53.680 of COVID plus a Brexit with no deal or a 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:58.080 poor deal would be really severe for London and our country. 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:01.320 As you said, it is a perfect storm, a double Yaman. 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:03.960 And that's why it's so important that our government wakes 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:07.400 up and realizes what we're heading tours, rather than sleepwalking 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:11.280 into a potentially really deep recession. What's the right way 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:13.600 of doing it? Is it more funds given to London 0:04:13.800 --> 0:04:16.560 and how much of these shifts will actually be permanent? 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:21.280 How much will the hospitality business suffer longer term? I 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:23.200 think what the government's got to realize is many of 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:26.640 these sectors are on life support and they need to 0:04:26.640 --> 0:04:29.600 stay on life support because we can't afford is for 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:32.760 these businesses to go bust. It's far far easier to 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.400 keep a business fiable with the financial support from the 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:38.320 government then allowing a business to go bust and hoping 0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:42.120 that people restart businesses. Similarly, it's far easier to keep 0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:45.080 people in work with financial support from the central government 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:48.520 rather than losing their jobs. Our current estimate is of 0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:52.359 the currnment continues the government continues down this line, we 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:57.679 could see levels of job losses, levels of businesses going bust. 0:04:57.800 --> 0:05:00.520 We've not seen as a country or city since the 0:05:00.640 --> 0:05:03.880 nineteen eighties. Nobody wants that, and that's why we're lobbying 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:06.599 the government to do much more, in particular to help 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:10.719 those sectors like retail, hospitality and culture that have really 0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:14.520 suffered at normally in good times contribute hugely towards our 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:18.000 wealth and prosperity. When you look at the world famous 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:21.440 theater industry in London, will it ever come back to 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:23.919 normally If we have a vaccine and that goes to 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:27.840 plan and if government support stays at these levels, when 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:30.960 are you expecting tourism to come back? Yeah? Well, the 0:05:31.200 --> 0:05:32.640 good us and that the light at the end of 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:36.440 the tunnel is the vaccine. This week Londoners and people 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:40.279 across our country will start receiving the vaccine and the 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:43.320 government has done the right thing and ordered vaccines from 0:05:43.320 --> 0:05:46.120 a number of different companies. The combination of the vaccine 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:49.560 but also we're our starting mass testing of those who 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:53.440 are asymptomatic leads us have hope towards the new year, 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:56.400 and that's why it's really important the government gives the support. 0:05:56.960 --> 0:06:00.000 Most businesses are planning next year not to be as good, 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:04.400 but they want to stay open and viable. We're hoping 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:08.040 to see tourists return to our city next summer. It's 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:10.960 really important they do so and safely. And that's why 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:13.400 it's really important that the government continues to make progress 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:16.160 on the vaccine, on mass testing, but also we need 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:19.719 to really get on top of the test trace isolate system. 0:06:19.720 --> 0:06:23.000 It's really important if somebody has the virus, particularly if 0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:25.600 they're asymptomatic, that they know they've got the virus. They 0:06:25.600 --> 0:06:28.839 can isolate the virus being passed. And we've learned a 0:06:28.839 --> 0:06:30.680 lot over the last eight nine months. We've got to 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:33.840 use those lessons going forward to make sure we can 0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:37.080 have a swift recovery, which is really important for our 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:41.039 country's well being. How much of it is a risk 0:06:41.279 --> 0:06:44.080 that actually London goes to Tier three and this is 0:06:44.080 --> 0:06:47.000 a tiering system that you know all living in the 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:49.440 UK will be familiar with, but will you fight to 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:52.920 keep it in Tier two which is a medium lockdown. Well, 0:06:52.960 --> 0:06:56.000 the tiriert system isn't perfectly across our country. For those 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.120 of you youers outside of the UK, we have three tiers. 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:01.839 Tier one is a with the least restrictions and Tier 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:05.080 three is with the most restrictions. London currently is in 0:07:05.279 --> 0:07:08.320 Tier two. We are concerned that there could be an 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:11.760 increase in the spread of the virus, a surge because 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:14.680 of a relaxation of the rules during Christmas. And that's 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:17.040 why it's really important to anybody who is in London 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:21.160 or visits London follows our rules. When you're using public transport, 0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:23.280 you're in a shop where a face mask, when you're 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:25.000 in a place where you can't keep you social distance 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:27.560 where a face mask, you know, it's really important to 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:30.040 carry hand sanitized, to wash your hands regularly and thoroughly 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:32.840 follow the rules that would avoid a London going into 0:07:32.880 --> 0:07:35.680 Tier three, because Tier three, because of the additional restrictions, 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:38.160 would mean that a lot of the progress we've made 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:40.560 with our businesses like here in the Cutty Sark would 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:43.080 be undone. That's why it's really important that people follow 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:46.160 the rules to avoid us either entering Tier three, or 0:07:46.200 --> 0:07:50.320 even worse, our country potentially entering a third national lockdown. 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:52.200 So they can't thank you so much for your time today. 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:54.120 Of course, that is the Mayor of London from the 0:07:54.120 --> 0:08:02.440 world famous Cutty Stark, Steve Schevara enjoyed us now federated 0:08:02.520 --> 0:08:06.080 him as portfolio manager State seven or five Eastern time 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:09.720 has become like therapy for investors in our audience after 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:12.040 rattling through all the negative news. And I think that's 0:08:12.040 --> 0:08:14.800 been a job at the investor for the market participants 0:08:14.840 --> 0:08:18.000 to almost receive that therapy all this stuff going on 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:21.800 around us which is absolutely dreadful, and thinking about about 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:26.560 one you have the therapy state. Yeah, I think I do. 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:28.840 I mean, I think I think we've been pretty calm 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:31.960 through the last few months. Look, I mean what you've 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:34.200 seen in terms of recovery is shocking. I mean, in 0:08:34.280 --> 0:08:35.880 terms of the number of people that have gone back 0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:39.920 to work, in terms of the rebound and retail sales, manufacturing, housing, 0:08:40.679 --> 0:08:42.640 you really do have in a lot of sectors of 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:45.720 the economy of v shaped recovery with a lot of 0:08:45.760 --> 0:08:49.400 stimulus coming, not just the fiscal stimulus, not just probably 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:51.200 a little bit more from the Fed in terms of 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:54.480 extending duration and things of that nature, but the vaccine 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:58.280 itself represents an enormous stimulus over the course of next 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:00.960 year as we gradually get acton normal, and I think 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:04.120 that's what the market is looking through now. That doesn't 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:06.560 mean we don't need support for certain parts of the 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:09.000 economy that are really in for it right now with 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:12.319 these increased restrictions, but that's really about doing the right 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:15.160 thing for sectors of the economy. The market as a whole, 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:18.319 I think is in a much healthier place than certain 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:21.360 sectors are. Steve, I get this argument that we're pricing 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:25.000 in one and that we're looking toward a period past 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:28.160 the pandemic. Yet if we've already priced that in, what 0:09:28.360 --> 0:09:32.600 more can we price in to drive a market higher? Well, well, 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:35.679 at least I don't think we are just pricing in one, 0:09:35.679 --> 0:09:38.800 and I think it's a longer term runway of growth. Remember, 0:09:38.960 --> 0:09:44.119 outside there are no real examples of double dip processions 0:09:44.120 --> 0:09:47.920 since the Great Depression. When you're looking at recoveries and expansions, 0:09:47.960 --> 0:09:51.520 these last three, four or five, six years, sometimes as 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:53.840 many as ten years. And we just had a recession. 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:56.560 We've cleared the deck. We're in early cycles. So yes, 0:09:56.600 --> 0:09:59.920 the market's immediate focus is on the recovery in one, 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:02.760 but in reality, you have to start pricing in the 0:10:02.800 --> 0:10:06.280 idea that we've got a number of years of first 0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:09.679 recovery then expansion, and markets are going to respond well 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:13.079 to that. Lisa, Tom and I have been going through 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:15.320 the same story stave over the last several weeks, and 0:10:15.600 --> 0:10:20.040 I've sat here frustrated sometimes board at the outlook because 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:23.079 it's very say me, and I'm wondering whether the group 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:26.600 think has actually become group action. Are you worried about 0:10:26.640 --> 0:10:29.440 actual crowding or as far as your concern, the money 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:33.160 hasn't actually been put to work. This is just talk. Still, Look, 0:10:33.280 --> 0:10:35.760 I think this is this is what the scary part 0:10:35.800 --> 0:10:37.640 about the early part of the cycle, because you'll see 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:40.199 big percentage moves and thinks that you've missed the whole thing. 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:42.960 But let's put it in a perspective. Right, small caps 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:45.439 have outperformed large by let's call it, you know, ten 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:50.079 of fift since September, but they've underperformed for the last 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:52.960 five years. They were flat for the last two years. 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:55.800 Um even if you look at value versus growth, the 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:59.760 ten and fifteen percent performance you've seen there, value underperformed 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:02.280 by fifty percent in the first half of this year. 0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:05.959 And so we think it's really those uncomfortable trades around value, 0:11:06.000 --> 0:11:09.360 around small caps, around international which has started to show 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:12.199 signs of life, and around dividend players that are really 0:11:12.240 --> 0:11:14.200 going to continue over the course of the next year. 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:17.480 We think that there's still relatively early in their in 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:20.000 their days. And we think, again, while the market has 0:11:20.040 --> 0:11:22.800 priced in a better twenty one, we don't think that 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:24.800 the market is priced in, you know, a longer term 0:11:24.800 --> 0:11:28.640 growth trajectory. Steve. This idea of being early earlier a 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:30.680 word we hear so many times, and this idea of 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:33.839 it being uncomfortable, and it being uncomfortable to get in 0:11:33.840 --> 0:11:35.680 in the early part of a bull market. And I 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:39.480 think April was uncomfortable right now? Can you call it 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:41.839 early when we've got a record high the Russell, a 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:44.720 record high s and P five hundred and a record 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:47.280 high the Nastac I mean, just looking at recoveries. You're 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:50.360 a student of market history much more than I am, Steve. 0:11:50.480 --> 0:11:53.320 You know, when we start an early stage recovery, do 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:58.679 we start a record highs. We don't get there this quickly, um, 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:01.440 but you can. For example, if you think about the 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:05.000 decline in seven, you were back to all time highs 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:08.520 within about a year of that thirty decline, and I 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:12.439 can assure you you didn't want to sell in because 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:17.600 you still had a market bull run until two thousand almost. Um, yes, 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:19.720 this can happen. Even if you look back at the 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:22.680 last recession that we went through, right, you got back 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:25.839 to the all time high, and again, it would have 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:27.640 been very easy to say, Okay, we're back to the 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:29.480 all time high, we're long in the two yet another 0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:33.160 get another six years after that. So no, I don't 0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:34.920 think it means that we're late just because we're at 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:37.199 all time highs. I think it's it's just the nature 0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:39.360 of this recovery and the amount of stimulus that we 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:41.559 got that allowed us to get back to the highest 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:45.120 so quickly. I was reading Morgan Stanley's look Ahead yesterday 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:47.199 Andrew Sheets came out and he said that one reason 0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:50.200 for their bullish outlook is that they expect fiscal and 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:53.120 monetary policy to work together. Yet they still expect the 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:55.319 ten year yield to get up to one point four 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:58.280 or five percent by year end. How high can that 0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:02.840 yield go before to rail as the equity rally look, 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:04.960 I think it's I think it's a function of what 0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:08.000 the economic context is. Right. So, if you're still in 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:11.480 an economic malaise or you have slowing economic data and 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:15.199 you get a surgeon yields because there's expectations that the 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:17.640 FED won't be as dubblished, then obviously that that's something 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:21.120 that's bad. Um. If on the other hand, you know, 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:23.800 we're getting higher yields on the back of stronger and 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:27.240 stronger economic data, more and more people going back to work, 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:31.320 more normal levels of activity, I think that's that's fine. Um. 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:34.520 Right now, both the yield and the spreads are so 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:38.080 low and so tight that it suggested equity multiples could 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:40.000 be in the mid to high twenties. We don't need 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:42.880 them to stay that high. So there is some room, 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:45.840 I think, within a healthy economic recovery for yields to 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:48.440 rise and the market to be okay with that. Stafe 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:50.120 writes to catch up. Is it too addy to say 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:54.439 Happy Christmas? Just in case? No, enjoy the holiday this year? 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:59.040 Take the opportunity, my friend, enjoy the holidays. Christmas tea 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:06.400 chefron Federated irmis thank you, sir. Let's get to this 0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:09.560 brutal pandemic sweeping across the United States of America, joining Ustan. 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:13.400 Please to say is Mercedes Carnathon, Norwestern University Department of 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:17.719 Preventative Medicine Vice Chair, Mercedes Professor. Fantastic to get you 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:20.360 back on the program with us. Thank you for joining us. 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:23.440 Secretary are over the weekend saying that perhaps by Q 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:26.840 two all Americans that would like the vaccine would have 0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:30.880 access to the vaccine. Is this the timeline that you're 0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:33.640 putting into your models you're thinking about increasingly as well? 0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:36.760 You know, that is what I have heard as well, 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:40.600 that hopefully by April, availability of the vaccine will be 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:42.800 such in production of the vaccine will be such that 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:46.440 everybody who wants it will start to be introduced to 0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:48.400 the opportunity to get it. Because you have to keep 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.280 in mind, it's two factors. It's how many doses of 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:54.200 the vaccine vaccine do we have available? And how can 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:56.840 we get it out to the people rapidly? So let's 0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:59.560 talk about the process of getting it out. We know 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:03.320 that for responders, people in nursing homes, those are some 0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:07.040 of the first recipients, are like the recipients of the vaccine. 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:09.320 Where do we go from there? You know, I think 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:12.400 it's really important to remember that those two populations are 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:15.720 coming first. So what that really means into one is 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:18.720 that our behaviors can't change. If you think about it, 0:15:18.800 --> 0:15:22.640 those are not the individuals with the highest likelihood of 0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:26.520 circulating the virus and the population or spreading it. Nursing 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:29.440 home residents are in nursing homes, They're not out there. 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.240 It's the twenty thirty nine year olds who are not 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:35.640 being vaccinated early on who are spreading it. So what 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:38.320 it means is that for the long game, we're looking 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:40.560 pretty good once we can get this world out, but 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:43.880 for right now, our behaviors can't change. So mercedies, this 0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:45.800 is the question, right, I mean, how should it be 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:49.240 rolled out in order to prevent the deaths that are inevitable, 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:52.880 that are climbing that we're seeing record hospitalizations currently. How 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:56.320 do we best distribute in order to prevent the rampants 0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:59.280 spread as many people are predicting. You know what I'd 0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:02.360 like to see. I've heard some discussion about essential workers 0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:08.120 who are delivery drivers, who are thrusts facing people in stores, 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:11.160 being eligible early on for the vaccine, and that would 0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:15.240 solve two problems for for a large proportion of those workers. 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:18.680 Those individuals um their income isn't as high. They aren't 0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:23.400 able to socially isolate themselves, they don't have vast homes 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:26.640 to be able to spread out, and those populations are 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:31.040 often at highest risk for the most severe outcomes and hospitalizations. 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:34.320 So it would be ideal to see that population in 0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:37.560 the next round. The good news, Professors, We've had months 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:39.720 to think about this, how to roll it out. What 0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:41.960 I still don't know, Maybe you can help me, is 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.120 how long does this last before we have to go 0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:47.720 back again and get another shot, get another vaccination? So 0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:49.480 as I understand it with fires, so you get one 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:52.720 shot twenty one days later or so you get another shot. 0:16:53.880 --> 0:16:57.440 What is your immediately like after that? How long the antibodies? Therefore, professor, 0:16:57.480 --> 0:16:59.520 do we know the answers to that? If I had 0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:01.560 the answered of that, I would be making a lot 0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:03.920 of money. I think right now we still are in 0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:06.159 the position where we know what we know and we 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:09.080 don't know what we don't know, and so I am 0:17:09.080 --> 0:17:12.280 not sure about that answer. How long one will remain immune? 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:15.120 I think you know that information stands to come out 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:18.000 at the time when they actually publish their trial results. 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:21.600 Right now, they're getting emergency use authorization we haven't seen 0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:24.320 the final reports, and hopefully there'll be some hints in there. 0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:28.159 Are you a little worried about the duration that it 0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:30.520 might be? Do you have a range in mind? Professor? 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:32.360 I apologize of putting you on the spot, because there 0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:34.600 is a belief at the moment, and we all share 0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:37.040 this hope that by the middle of the next year 0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:40.320 in places across the world around the planet, we've got 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:42.320 society to a position where we can roll back many 0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:44.320 of these restrictions. But I think a big worry for 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:46.359 people would be if we had to go and do 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:49.880 this all over again, quarter after quarter to make sure 0:17:49.920 --> 0:17:51.720 this last. That would be a much bigger effort. Do 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:53.879 you have a time range in mind? That would be 0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:55.840 a much bigger effort. Um, you know. I think what 0:17:55.880 --> 0:17:59.600 I remain hopeful is that this particular vaccine which I hear, 0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:03.760 is a unique approach to vaccination and how it's targeting 0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:07.240 the virus, that it will not be like the flu 0:18:07.359 --> 0:18:13.040 vaccine that wrap so the flu the flu virus um 0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:17.119 mutates quickly. The coronavirus doesn't mutate quite as well I 0:18:17.160 --> 0:18:21.439 think as the flu virus. However, and the way that 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:25.720 these vaccines have been developed there's something that is targeting 0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:28.919 something a little more central to the virus, so that 0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:32.480 ideally this will last longer than one year. However, I 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:35.640 haven't seen the final report yet, Mercedes. I just want 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:38.040 to wrap up with where we are in the pandemic. 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:40.399 Right now, we are seeing record numbers of cases in 0:18:40.440 --> 0:18:43.920 the United States or seeing hospitalizations we're seeing I see 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:47.720 you units at capacity. How concerned are you about the 0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:52.040 next month in terms of the worst aspect of this pandemic? 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:55.040 You know, the worst aspect of this is, you know, 0:18:55.119 --> 0:18:57.440 you can always build field hospitals, but how are you 0:18:57.480 --> 0:18:59.879 going to staff them? As we are filling up the 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.720 hospitals and I see us and using up the life 0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:06.320 saving equipment. We need people to run that equipment, and 0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:08.960 that's where we're actually running short right now. So that 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:12.760 concerns me a great deal. Our healthcare providers are burnt out, 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:16.800 they are exhausted. This is emotionally and physically very draining. 0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:19.880 So it's very concerning and the only the best thing 0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:22.800 that we can do is to adhere to mask wearing 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:25.760 and social distancing so that we can try to tamp 0:19:25.840 --> 0:19:28.520 this down. Professor. We appreciate your hard work and your 0:19:28.560 --> 0:19:34.160 contribution to this program. Thank you, Mersides Knathan of Northwestern University. 0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:38.200 Do you and I folk said the same thing. We 0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:40.359 make the mistake of calling it stimulus. What this really 0:19:40.440 --> 0:19:43.120 is is eight it's an aid package to get us 0:19:43.119 --> 0:19:45.920 to the end of Q two. The stimulus, that's something 0:19:45.920 --> 0:19:48.800 you've got to think about after that. I'm really curious 0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:50.359 to see the details of the plan. We're gonna be 0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:52.400 getting it today, but I'm curious to see whether they're 0:19:52.400 --> 0:19:55.080 going to be any direct payments to individuals. The word 0:19:55.160 --> 0:19:57.800 is there won't be. How they get that aid out 0:19:57.840 --> 0:20:01.119 to small businesses. The details matter, John, especially as the 0:20:01.200 --> 0:20:04.320 pandemic is getting worse, and will we get that one 0:20:04.400 --> 0:20:07.399 hundred and sixty billion dollars in state and locally. Tina 0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:11.240 Fordham joins us now even hest head of global political strategy. Tina, 0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:13.439 let's just start with your read on negotiations down on 0:20:13.520 --> 0:20:15.800 Capitol here. It certainly sounds a lot more constructive over 0:20:15.800 --> 0:20:21.000 the last week or so. What's your take, Tina, um Well, 0:20:21.160 --> 0:20:24.680 I always get worried when it starts to sound constructive 0:20:25.160 --> 0:20:28.160 because part of that, you know, signal that talks are 0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:34.520 going well is in itself just uh reflects the political 0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:37.960 imperative for both sides to be seen to be working 0:20:38.000 --> 0:20:41.760 in the country's best interest during this time of crisis. 0:20:41.880 --> 0:20:45.000 You know, everyone uses the same expression the devil in 0:20:45.040 --> 0:20:48.680 the details. I think, um, the observation about this being 0:20:48.760 --> 0:20:52.520 aid rather than stimulus is a very astute one because 0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:56.520 we forget how toxic um the term physical stimulus can 0:20:56.560 --> 0:21:01.320 be in the US context. So I am less optimistic 0:21:01.359 --> 0:21:04.480 actually now than I was the last time, but then 0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:08.639 I was wrong. So um, I think that it's in 0:21:08.680 --> 0:21:10.919 the it's going to be in Republican interests to be 0:21:11.000 --> 0:21:14.840 seen to be driving a very hard bargain, especially as 0:21:14.840 --> 0:21:18.560 we have this signpost of January five, the Georgia runoffs coming. 0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:21.159 So what's the main opposition here? Is it's still the 0:21:21.200 --> 0:21:23.000 state and local funding. Is that going to be the 0:21:23.000 --> 0:21:28.359 main sticking point? I think that there is room for 0:21:28.359 --> 0:21:31.720 for compromise, but that Republicans will be wanting to be 0:21:31.800 --> 0:21:34.560 seen to be driving the harder bargain. And one of 0:21:34.640 --> 0:21:38.639 the new twists that we've uh, you know, we've experienced 0:21:38.960 --> 0:21:44.280 since the presidential elections is Republicans finding religion again on 0:21:44.280 --> 0:21:47.280 on deficit spending. Right, So this or the size of 0:21:47.280 --> 0:21:50.919