Speaker 1: All right, welcome to hoops tonight here at the Volume.
Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday, everybody. We are live on AMP. Don't forget
Speaker 1: if you're watching on YouTube or on the podcast feeds.
Speaker 1: At AMP is the very first place that you guys
Speaker 1: can get these shows. We've been repping out our series previews.
Speaker 1: There's three of them right now on the feed. We
Speaker 1: hit Warriors, Kings, Calves, Nicks, and Lakers Grizzly. So far.
Speaker 1: We'll have at least three more coming this week. The
Speaker 1: one that might be tough is the eight one matchups,
Speaker 1: just depending on how some scheduling stuff works out. But
Speaker 1: we are going to go big picture today and talk
Speaker 1: about my picks going into this postseason run in the
Speaker 1: grand scheme of things, not just for the first round,
Speaker 1: but as we head into the deeper parts of the
Speaker 1: Western Conference, in the Eastern Conference playoffs, in the NBA Finals,
Speaker 1: and then we're also going to get into some stuff
Speaker 1: about expected upsets and some of the ramifications for teams
Speaker 1: that might not quite live up to what their expectations
Speaker 1: are in this postseason run. And as is usually the case,
Speaker 1: I can think of no one better than mister Carson,
Speaker 1: one of our favorites a fan favorite to join the show, Carson,
Speaker 1: How you doing, man? I am great, Jason. We have
Speaker 1: finally made it yesterday. I don't care what anybody says
Speaker 1: about the quality of the game. That was playoff basketball,
Speaker 1: playoff intensity, playoff stakes, and there's just nothing like that
Speaker 1: in the world to me. So I cannot wait for
Speaker 1: two full months ago. Yeah, you know, it's so funny too.
Speaker 1: It's like I saw a lot of people complaining about
Speaker 1: the ugliness of the basketball, and it's like, that's not
Speaker 1: just a playoff game, that's also a monumentally important single
Speaker 1: game sample of a playoff game, right Like, for instance,
Speaker 1: that might be a game the Lakers punt in a
Speaker 1: playoff series, like you're down fifteen in the third quarter
Speaker 1: or whatever. You might just be like, we don't have
Speaker 1: it tonight. We'll get them in game two. Right Like,
Speaker 1: they played like absolute crazy to get back into that
Speaker 1: game because there was so much at stake, especially for
Speaker 1: an older team to get that Friday off because now
Speaker 1: they have four full days off before their matchup on Sunday.
Speaker 1: It was so vitally important. And again, like when it's
Speaker 1: like Game seven of the NBA Finals in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 1: and did ninety three to eighty nine, like they are.
Speaker 1: They're going to be ugly when there's a lot at stake,
Speaker 1: and I'm not going to be overly judgmental. So many
Speaker 1: people were like, these are two bad teams fighting out
Speaker 1: last night. I thought it was actually two pretty damn
Speaker 1: good teams fighting it out. Yeah. I agree. I had
Speaker 1: like a complete opposite take from the majority of people
Speaker 1: on that game. I thought it was a lot of fun,
Speaker 1: and I thought in some ways it just showed what
Speaker 1: the Lakers are capable of in Minnesota. You mentioned in Minnesota,
Speaker 1: I mean very strong forty minutes from them. It was
Speaker 1: kind of just that closing stretch. So you mentioned that
Speaker 1: we're gonna take a big picture here and we'll start
Speaker 1: out in the West, where a lot of people have
Speaker 1: view this as a very open conference. Throughout the year,
Speaker 1: You've had the Warriors as the defending champs but struggling
Speaker 1: in terms of consistency, the Nuggets always at the top
Speaker 1: of the conference, but some questions about how it translates
Speaker 1: to the playoff stage. Then you have like the Sons
Speaker 1: and Lakers emerging with their late season acquisitions, changing their rosters.
Speaker 1: So out of that entire conference, who do you think
Speaker 1: it is actually going to be the last one standing
Speaker 1: here making it to the finals. Jason, So, I was
Speaker 1: so on the fence about this, even coming into this
Speaker 1: morning when I sat down with my notes, I was
Speaker 1: on the fence completely between the Lakers, the Warriors, and
Speaker 1: the Suns. And again, like, this is not to me.
Speaker 1: It has to do with an extremely flawed field. I
Speaker 1: think with the Nuggets in particular, they were in a
Speaker 1: situation where they could not let their foot off the
Speaker 1: gas to end the season because because of their defensive shortcomings,
Speaker 1: it was so vitally important in my opinion, for them
Speaker 1: to be locked in heading into the playoffs. Now they
Speaker 1: might tighten some things up in the first round. And
Speaker 1: you know, here's the thing with these predicts, Like we're
Speaker 1: doing the best we can to make these guesses. But
Speaker 1: the reality is is like chances are both of us
Speaker 1: will feel very differently two weeks from now, and then
Speaker 1: feel very differently again two weeks from then. That doesn't
Speaker 1: that's just reacting to new information. That's just being smart.
Speaker 1: That's there's no point in being stubborn and going down
Speaker 1: with the ship of your pick. And then at the
Speaker 1: end of the day, these are just predictions, and the
Speaker 1: game of basketball is incredibly unpredictable. That's why we love
Speaker 1: watching it so much, and so at the end of
Speaker 1: the day, we could be you know, I could pick
Speaker 1: all eight first round series is wrong, or I I
Speaker 1: could pick them all right, like, who the hell knows
Speaker 1: what's going to happen. But Denver, I think I think
Speaker 1: they needed to be locked in on the details defensively
Speaker 1: to be ready to make this run, and instead they
Speaker 1: just completely regressed. Sacramento obviously, I mean they're a huge
Speaker 1: underdog against the Warriors, that they're they're an unserious team.
Speaker 1: The Clippers without Paul George, I don't think have any
Speaker 1: real chance with the Grizzlies. I was I did this
Speaker 1: series preview for the Lakers last night, and I was
Speaker 1: digging into the numbers, and they've been pretty much a
Speaker 1: mediocre team beating up on an easy schedule post deadline,
Speaker 1: and the Lakers are also beating up on a bad
Speaker 1: schedule post deadline, but they've been way more impressive in
Speaker 1: doing so. Very good defensively, very good, rebounding, all these
Speaker 1: different a lot of hallmarks that look well. And Lebron
Speaker 1: James was out for most of that, so you knew
Speaker 1: there was an additional ceiling there. But I don't take
Speaker 1: Memphis as a serious title contender, and I keep coming
Speaker 1: down to the Lakers, the Sons, and the Warriors, and
Speaker 1: it's all because of their potential ceiling. Right with the Lakers,
Speaker 1: it's the idea of this elite defense with Lebron James
Speaker 1: and Anthony Davis playing at the top of their games.
Speaker 1: With the Suns, it's just this kind of like a
Speaker 1: better version of the Brooklyn Nets in twenty twenty one,
Speaker 1: just like two other worldly pull up jump shooters spamming
Speaker 1: high pick and roll all game, but with a better
Speaker 1: center that they're playing with in some additional playmaking and
Speaker 1: Chris Paul, but similar issues to the Nets in terms
Speaker 1: of depth and like kind of a thin physical profile
Speaker 1: that struggles under the physicality of the NBA playoffs. So
Speaker 1: just a slightly better version of the Nets. And then
Speaker 1: as we go to the Warriors, it's like defending champ
Speaker 1: and all these different things, but there's just a little
Speaker 1: bit missing, right, like Namania be Elites. I actually played
Speaker 1: pretty well in the NBA Finals for the Warriors last year.
Speaker 1: Otto Porter was so important. Gary Payton obviously he's back now,
Speaker 1: but Andrew Wiggins had such an amazing playoff run. So
Speaker 1: there are these like kind of these big question marks
Speaker 1: that undercut all three of those teams. And for me,
Speaker 1: I just was under the impression that if I was
Speaker 1: in a situation where I was on the fence, I
Speaker 1: was gonna go with the team that is the defending champion.
Speaker 1: They most recently played the necessary level of basketball to
Speaker 1: get out of this type of playoff environment. You know,
Speaker 1: for KD, it's been a couple of years. For a
Speaker 1: lot of the guys in that roster, it's been a
Speaker 1: couple of years since they've had that level of success.
Speaker 1: The Lakers haven't done so since October of twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: and even they looked a little shell shocked by the
Speaker 1: intensity of that game last night. I've been on the
Speaker 1: fence and tie goes to the defending champ. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna pick the Golden State Warriors to get out of
Speaker 1: the Western Conference. Where are you at? And don't say Denver?
Speaker 1: That's it surprised me. I do not have Denver, Jason.
Speaker 1: I would take the Suns right now. To me, this
Speaker 1: is clearly the most top end talent, Like if we're
Speaker 1: looking at the top two share. The Lakers go toe
Speaker 1: to toe with them, absolutely, but to have CP three
Speaker 1: a Atan allowed to specialize in their roles more not
Speaker 1: having the offensive burden of the kind of creation where
Speaker 1: at this point CP doesn't want to take on a
Speaker 1: high volume role. ATEN isn't the most developed. Like this
Speaker 1: is a team that has two efficient twenty eight point
Speaker 1: per game scores with incredible versatility too, which is so
Speaker 1: important when you're talking about how players translate to that
Speaker 1: playoff stage. Being able to remain unpredictable, to make shots
Speaker 1: from anywhere on the court, to make shots out of
Speaker 1: any action, and that is like what Book and Kadi epitomized.
Speaker 1: Katie just flat out as the best player in the
Speaker 1: conference to me, the best score alive, having a career
Speaker 1: defensive and playmaking season, and his teams have been thirty
Speaker 1: four and thirteen when he plays. But Book is also
Speaker 1: having a career season in basically all those same categories, defense, playmaking,
Speaker 1: and scoring. This is the best version of him that
Speaker 1: we've ever seen, and we know that his scoring can
Speaker 1: translate to that playoff stage. We saw it two years
Speaker 1: ago and he's better now. So you have these guys
Speaker 1: who can dominate out a pick and roll where Katie's
Speaker 1: ninety eight percentile book is sadie first percentile, but who
Speaker 1: also can be lethal catch and shooters, who can come
Speaker 1: off of screens, who can score from the mid range.
Speaker 1: And I just don't see the other offense that has
Speaker 1: that level of just reliable production at the top and
Speaker 1: also has reached a pretty high defensive ceiling this season.
Speaker 1: Like when we see this top four together for Phoenix,
Speaker 1: it's only been in eight games, take it with a
Speaker 1: grain of salt because the competition hasn't been great either.
Speaker 1: But they have a plus seventeen point four net rating.
Speaker 1: They've been equivalent to the number one offense the number
Speaker 1: one defense. They're eight and oh, I just believe this
Speaker 1: is the most talented team in the conference. I think
Speaker 1: that they have a level of polish of consistency that
Speaker 1: we haven't seen from the Lakers. Because if ab and
Speaker 1: Lebron I consistently believe we're going to be the best
Speaker 1: version of themselves, they'd be my pick because that they
Speaker 1: have the best cast of role players overall. But we
Speaker 1: just say Lebron have one of the worst defensive passing
Speaker 1: overall effort games outside of just I'm on the ball,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go get myself a bucket that I can
Speaker 1: remember from him and in a d although he's had
Speaker 1: a great year, too often is susceptible to not being
Speaker 1: that hyper aggressive, dominant score that he has to be
Speaker 1: to maximize his value. So I don't have those questions
Speaker 1: with the Sun's top two, and people look at the
Speaker 1: depth and seeing that as a concern. I get it.
Speaker 1: But if josh Okogi is making thirty five percent of
Speaker 1: his threes, he's really good because he's a really good
Speaker 1: point of attack defender, he's athletic, he attacks closeouts confidently.
Speaker 1: It's just sometimes he can't shoot the ball from life
Speaker 1: of him, and so that's kind of the swing factor.
Speaker 1: But they have added some size, some capable wing player
Speaker 1: to that bench, so I feel better about it than
Speaker 1: I did when they first made the Kadi trade. Like
Speaker 1: I think we've seen with the acquisition of a Terrence
Speaker 1: Cross Okogie growing into his game. Tory Craig is fine,
Speaker 1: not gonna be a strength, but it's not a strength
Speaker 1: for the Nuggets. The bench, like after Bruce Brown, it's
Speaker 1: a bunch of question marks. Warriors. You could argue maybe
Speaker 1: with the level Deven Sheens on Cominga have been playing at.
Speaker 1: But I think that the reality for them is we
Speaker 1: haven't seen it consistently this year at all, and there's
Speaker 1: so much that needs to come together. They're so fast,
Speaker 1: like the consistent level of defense that they would need.
Speaker 1: Last year, they were the best defense in the league
Speaker 1: in the regular season. That was the foundation. This year
Speaker 1: it's been Draymond unbelievable. Everybody else question Mark to say
Speaker 1: the least, and I think a lot of guys had
Speaker 1: to play really well on that run. Pool was significantly
Speaker 1: better than he's been night tonight in this year. Like
Speaker 1: he was efficient, he was highly productive. This year, he's
Speaker 1: been a roller coaster. Wiggins was great. Wiggins is just
Speaker 1: gonna be playing his first basketball now Auto Porter Junior. Yeah,
Speaker 1: maybe they can supplement some of that with the Deven
Speaker 1: Sheens on COMINGA editions, But I just don't feel that
Speaker 1: this team has consistently shown us the level of basketball that,
Speaker 1: even in a small sample size, Phoenix has, and I
Speaker 1: believe in that Phoenix talent above all else. So the Nuggets,
Speaker 1: I don't think they have the defensive ceiling and if anybody,
Speaker 1: I mean may maybe the Warriors could exploit the Suns
Speaker 1: because of Steph's shot making, his perimeter dominance, and that's
Speaker 1: not the strength of this Phoenix defense that would be
Speaker 1: on the interior. But I just think two ways top
Speaker 1: end guys, they have a combination and the formula that
Speaker 1: I believe in the Moss. You know, again, if they
Speaker 1: end up being the team in the finals, I will
Speaker 1: not be surprised. Like I said, I actually view the
Speaker 1: Suns on the same level as the Warriors and Lakers
Speaker 1: right now. It's more just benefit of the doubt that
Speaker 1: I'm giving towards Golden State. Again, I just look at
Speaker 1: games like last night, and I constantly get reminded of
Speaker 1: this every year. You know, it amazes me, Carson every
Speaker 1: single year, that immediate transition to playoff basketball, like and
Speaker 1: how even though we know it's coming, you're like, whoa,
Speaker 1: that's so different, Like it's just so unbelieving. I remember
Speaker 1: being blown away again last year when I was watching
Speaker 1: Brooklyn versus Boston. I think it was game two where
Speaker 1: because the first game was the crazy Kyrie game where
Speaker 1: he almost stole it, but they ended up losing any
Speaker 1: way on that wild spinning layup from Jason Tatum and
Speaker 1: then Game two was just an absolute blood bath on
Speaker 1: both ends of the floor, right and like, and I
Speaker 1: remember sitting there thinking, like, as I was watching last night,
Speaker 1: there's just these finesse type of players typically start to
Speaker 1: struggle a little bit as we get to this phase. Now.
Speaker 1: To be clear, Kevin Durant, for the most part in
Speaker 1: his career has thrived in that environment. But a big
Speaker 1: part of that was for you know, he's been playing
Speaker 1: alongside a ton of offensive talent since he went to
Speaker 1: Golden State and into Brooklyn and so and Phoenix also
Speaker 1: has that type of offensive talent. So I think he's
Speaker 1: going to be in good shape there. But with Devin Booker,
Speaker 1: I mean we have basically two real playoff runs from him,
Speaker 1: one where he made all those shots and one where
Speaker 1: he missed all those shots. And with Kevin Durant and
Speaker 1: his last two playoff runs, we had one where he
Speaker 1: made all those shots in twenty twenty one and it
Speaker 1: was enough or could have been enough, and then he
Speaker 1: missed all of them last year against Boston. And so
Speaker 1: I think there's not enough diversity in their attack in
Speaker 1: my opinion, from the standpoint of where they like to
Speaker 1: get their offense for them to be the juggernaut that
Speaker 1: so many people have claimed for them to be. And
Speaker 1: I don't think you're claiming that, to be clear. I
Speaker 1: think you're just looking at a bunch of flawed teams
Speaker 1: and you're saying Phoenix is the best bet. And I
Speaker 1: can see that. But I think this Sun's team is beatable.
Speaker 1: I think they're thin. I think they can be susceptible
Speaker 1: to physicality. I think, for instance, one of we're gonna
Speaker 1: talk upsets in a little bit, you know, don't be
Speaker 1: surprised if if he kazoo Back just just outplays the
Speaker 1: shit out of Deandreton, Like you know that that's the
Speaker 1: type of thing that could happen in a series against
Speaker 1: a team like that. Like he's their most physically imposing player,
Speaker 1: and he's kind of got a little bit of a
Speaker 1: reputation for being inconsistently competitive in these types of environments.
Speaker 1: So again, I'm not I'm not trying to say the
Speaker 1: Suns can't do it. I think they're a top tier
Speaker 1: Western Conference contender. Wouldn't be surprised at off they get out.
Speaker 1: But right now I want to say Golden State. The
Speaker 1: one thing I will say is the Laker defense last night.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw this, Carson. In the
Speaker 1: final eleven minutes of the game, they allowed two field goals.
Speaker 1: One was a runout dunk after a bad Lebron James
Speaker 1: contested o'clock jump shot, where the Lakers, who have a
Speaker 1: bad transition defense, basically gave Anthony Edwards a run out dunk.
Speaker 1: And then with less than twenty seconds left, when the
Speaker 1: game was basically over, they lightened up their defense a
Speaker 1: little bit. Anthony Edwards made like a little shot in
Speaker 1: the lane. Other than that that they completely shut off
Speaker 1: the water of that Minnesota Timberwolves team. So if I
Speaker 1: see enough at a Lebron James and Anthony Davis in
Speaker 1: this series against Memphis to where they unlock a necessary
Speaker 1: offensive polish and they get enough of their role players going,
Speaker 1: that was kind of an underrated storyline last night. D'Angelo
Speaker 1: Russell was awful. Austin Reeves played his last, his worst
Speaker 1: game in weeks. Troy Brown Junior was horrendous when you
Speaker 1: and Gabriel was off the floor in a matter of minutes,
Speaker 1: like Troy Brown Junior was making mistakes right and left,
Speaker 1: like Jared Vanderbilt was unplayable towards the end of the game,
Speaker 1: and they had to go with Ruey Hods Murraer. They
Speaker 1: found enough guys to do what they needed to do.
Speaker 1: But there's some these finesse types of players just they
Speaker 1: they tend to struggle a little bit in this environment.
Speaker 1: But like, if the Lakers can get it together against Memphis,
Speaker 1: I actually think they have a higher ceiling than all
Speaker 1: three of these teams. But again, with all the with
Speaker 1: all of the current available information, I go with Golden State.
Speaker 1: It's interesting. I do definitely value physical imposition in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: but I would argue that if there's an exception for me,
Speaker 1: it's probably Kevin freaking because we have seen it a
Speaker 1: whole lot of times. Let's flip to the east here,
Speaker 1: who do you have coming out of there? So again
Speaker 1: I came in completely on the fence, and I was
Speaker 1: I was on Milwaukee pretty strong a few months ago
Speaker 1: when they were coming on strong. I still think janis
Speaker 1: deserved to win MVP, but it's it looks like he's
Speaker 1: it looks like you might actually I was looking at
Speaker 1: some of the early turns and it looks like he
Speaker 1: might end up finishing second because Yokich basically punted the
Speaker 1: MVP at the end of the season. But you know,
Speaker 1: it was funny. What ended up closing the deal for
Speaker 1: me last night was this morning was the game last
Speaker 1: night again just watching the physicality and being kind of like,
Speaker 1: you know, shocked by it again like I always am.
Speaker 1: And you know, I look at that game where Boston
Speaker 1: went into Milwaukee and they kicked their ass, and I
Speaker 1: look at like how they did it, and it was
Speaker 1: a lot of like early in the game, just Milwaukee
Speaker 1: was missing shots, which they have a propensity to do
Speaker 1: from time to time, but like Boston was very comfortable
Speaker 1: and they were just knocking down these pull up threes
Speaker 1: in the first quarter. And then as the game progressed,
Speaker 1: they really unlocked their driving kick game and they were
Speaker 1: getting wide open shots and they were picking them to pieces,
Speaker 1: no doubt. But like I know, Milwaukee in that series,
Speaker 1: early on, probably Game one, is going to come in
Speaker 1: desperate knowing that they're terrified of what boston ceiling is,
Speaker 1: and they're gonna bring a level of physicality that I
Speaker 1: think is going to rattle them. And I just think
Speaker 1: that as that series progresses, Milwaukee's physical advantages will continue
Speaker 1: to bear through Drew Holliday just being built like a
Speaker 1: truck for that environment. Janni s Antenna Kompo. Obviously there's
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of debate over whether or not
Speaker 1: teams can play Brook Lopez off the floor. I don't
Speaker 1: really think there's a team that can do it this year,
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna I was on the fence, but I
Speaker 1: ended up going with Milwaukee. I just think as the
Speaker 1: playoffs get more and more physical, that they're going to
Speaker 1: thrive in that environment. Well, I think Boston is going
Speaker 1: to go down to level. We have very similar thinking here.
Speaker 1: I also have Milwaukee, and I've felt pretty confident about
Speaker 1: this for most of the year, even though Boston has
Speaker 1: been incredible and they're better than last year. Right, they
Speaker 1: have so many different, potentially exceptional sources of offense, just
Speaker 1: when you look at the depth of their guard play
Speaker 1: this year, and obviously the top winging tandem. But it
Speaker 1: is the physicality and when I look at last year's
Speaker 1: series how close Milwaukee was without Chris Middleton. First of all,
Speaker 1: I think that Milwaukee easily could have won that series
Speaker 1: if they had just shot the ball well like they
Speaker 1: were twenty eight percent from deep. They were four or
Speaker 1: thirty three in Game seven, And I think that this
Speaker 1: year they have proven to be a good enough shooting team.
Speaker 1: They've been fourth and three point percentag since the All
Speaker 1: Star Break. They've consistently been a high volume team. Those
Speaker 1: are the kind of looks that Jannis creates most frequently
Speaker 1: to where you can't load up on Yannis as shamelessly
Speaker 1: as Boston did and have that same result. Like, I
Speaker 1: just believe in them making those shots, and I do
Speaker 1: not think that there is another way to stop Yannis,
Speaker 1: and especially if Middleton is out there, and so now
Speaker 1: you have another legitimate perimeter shotmaker and playmaker alongside Drew
Speaker 1: who alleviates that pressure. It just feels like we feel
Speaker 1: Milwaukee and their ability when you're talking about Yannis to
Speaker 1: get wherever he wants on the court, and then it's
Speaker 1: just a matter of are we gonna help shamelessly or
Speaker 1: are we gonna, you know, pray that he misses around
Speaker 1: the rim? Pretty much, we know that they're gonna dominate
Speaker 1: on the glass because they always do. We know that
Speaker 1: that defense is going to be stellar, and that physical
Speaker 1: imposition and the fact that I do believe they'll shoot
Speaker 1: the ball better the fact that I like their depth
Speaker 1: more as much as I do Boss and write. With
Speaker 1: the additions of an Angles Crowder, Bobby portis being better
Speaker 1: than he's ever been before. I have faith in the
Speaker 1: team that it feels like can get what they want
Speaker 1: more readily. And that's because of Jannis versus Tatum. Bottom line,
Speaker 1: as we've talked about before, Tatum is not Kevin Durant, right.
Speaker 1: I don't think that Tatum is going to make fifty
Speaker 1: percent of us pull up jump shots. I think he's
Speaker 1: liable in any game to make and then he completely
Speaker 1: flips on his head as a player. And so in
Speaker 1: this series, I definitely do go more to that physicality
Speaker 1: arena where I think Milwaukee clear is advantage. I still
Speaker 1: think it would be a great series. Is are two
Speaker 1: great two way teams with awesome stars, awesome depth. But
Speaker 1: give me him why. Of course it's gonna be an
Speaker 1: entertaining series. And again, like we talked about at the
Speaker 1: beginning of the show, like if Boston wins, I'm not
Speaker 1: going to be shocked by any stretch of the imagination.
Speaker 1: I just think about like, like, look at the end
Speaker 1: of that game last night, there was there was this
Speaker 1: weird play in ot where like Anthony Davis just surrounded
Speaker 1: by like three guys and Lebron's in the corner and
Speaker 1: he just kind of like throws basically a jump ball
Speaker 1: to the top of the square and ad just rises
Speaker 1: up in the group over everybody and grabs it and
Speaker 1: puts it in the basket. There was like another play.
Speaker 1: There was another play late in the fourth quarter where
Speaker 1: Lebron got an offensive rebound putback where it was like
Speaker 1: the ugliest play in the history of mankind. And I
Speaker 1: can't even remember what exactly let it led into it,
Speaker 1: but Lebron ended up like in the scrum, just coming
Speaker 1: out with the basketball and just going up and making
Speaker 1: an offensive rebound put back. It's like so many of
Speaker 1: these rock fights just come down to, like who's the
Speaker 1: I always joke I make a pool basketball analogy, Like
Speaker 1: you know, when you play pool basketball, there's no dribbling,
Speaker 1: Like I haven't played since I was younger, but like
Speaker 1: I'd bring a bunch of my buddies over who were
Speaker 1: all like college basketball players, and we'd play pool basketball.
Speaker 1: It was just a blood bath because you're just beating
Speaker 1: the shit out of each other each other trying to
Speaker 1: fight for position. Around the basket, Like that's just kind
Speaker 1: of what playoff basketball reminds me of. And again, in
Speaker 1: a situation like that, having brook Lopez, having Jannis having
Speaker 1: Drew Holiday, you brought up the shooting part, and that's
Speaker 1: such an important detail. Like Javon Carter has gone up
Speaker 1: a level as a shooter compared to last year. Joe
Speaker 1: Ingles on the floor just gives them another option. It'll
Speaker 1: depend on perimeter defense. There will be some matchups where
Speaker 1: he might struggle like he's It'll be interesting to see
Speaker 1: if he moves his feet a well a feet well
Speaker 1: enough when Boston goes five out, but like he can
Speaker 1: shoot the laces off the basketball. And then last year
Speaker 1: without they didn't have the PJ. Tucker piece, And look,
Speaker 1: Jay Crowder is not as good as PJ. Tucker and
Speaker 1: some of those dirty work elements of the game, but
Speaker 1: he's a reasonable facsimile of that, and he's a better
Speaker 1: offensive player. And so you put Jay Crowder out there,
Speaker 1: it's just and again that's just another option for them
Speaker 1: to go to in specific matchup situations. Boston is better
Speaker 1: than they were last year, but so is Milwaukee and
Speaker 1: and all those things considered, I just think they're the
Speaker 1: safest bet I think they're both significantly and that's why
Speaker 1: I think we're in for like an Eastern Conference finals
Speaker 1: for the ages. But just looking at the precedent, I
Speaker 1: totally agree with you. If we look at recent champions,
Speaker 1: last year's an exception because they're the Golden State Warriors, right,
Speaker 1: and Steph Curry is an offensive player like we've never seen.
Speaker 1: We've seen them do it four times now with this
Speaker 1: pull up um shooting formula. But the year before that,
Speaker 1: Milwaukee solid shooting roster, not a good shooting postseason, they
Speaker 1: were thirty two percent from deep, but they were the
Speaker 1: most physically imposing. They were dominant getting to the rim,
Speaker 1: and they were great defensively because of their length, size, athleticism, physicality.
Speaker 1: Lakers the year before that, not a good shooting team,
Speaker 1: but they were winning in those same categories. Physicality, the
Speaker 1: imposition from their top guy, the defensive sea when they
Speaker 1: could reach. So how do you think there's a legitimate
Speaker 1: precedent that says, unless you are exceptional in this, hey
Speaker 1: we're gonna win with our skill. It makes sense to
Speaker 1: bet on the teams that have that physical dominance when
Speaker 1: they also have, you know, great offensive creation like you
Speaker 1: get from a Janis or a Lebron or whoever's in
Speaker 1: that range. So we've covered both conferences. Now who do
Speaker 1: you are winning the title? Jason? So I went with
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Now again I have this line up with
Speaker 1: the Warriors, but I feel the same way if they
Speaker 1: faced Phoenix, I think the Bucks will have the best
Speaker 1: player in the series. They'll have the best defense in
Speaker 1: the series. I think one of the biggest swing factors
Speaker 1: in this series if the Warriors were to make it
Speaker 1: is can they play Brook Lopez off the floor? But
Speaker 1: we've seen a pretty consistent theme now where teams are
Speaker 1: starting to basically just sag way back into the paint
Speaker 1: on Draymond Green Cavaloni, which they've always done. But now
Speaker 1: what the guards are doing is they're no longer locking
Speaker 1: and trailing as much they do when they have to
Speaker 1: when they get out of position. And that's why transition
Speaker 1: is such an important part for Golden Steak. Getting out
Speaker 1: in transition and they're blender, they'll use their sets to
Speaker 1: try to get guys out of position so that they
Speaker 1: can get into a lock and trail position. But most
Speaker 1: of these guards now know it's like actually, like you
Speaker 1: can just give up a backcut because who cares, You've
Speaker 1: got rim protection behind you. And so they're able to
Speaker 1: really really aggressively overplay some of these off ball screening actions.
Speaker 1: And so again, I don't know that they'll be able
Speaker 1: to play Lopez off the floor. Now, if they were,
Speaker 1: that would be a huge swing factor in the series,
Speaker 1: because suddenly they don't become as imposing physically. But here's
Speaker 1: the thing again, and this is not a Warrior's take,
Speaker 1: but the Bucks have been the better team all season.
Speaker 1: They've been the best team all season. They have the
Speaker 1: best player in the league. So, like, if I'm trying
Speaker 1: to pick again, like and I think the Warriors absolutely
Speaker 1: have a chance to win the title, just like I
Speaker 1: think the Lakers do, just like I think the Suns do,
Speaker 1: just like I think the Sixers do, just like I
Speaker 1: think the Celtics in Bucks do. But if I'm picking
Speaker 1: what I think is the safest bet, I think right
Speaker 1: now Milwaukee is the safest bet to win the title.
Speaker 1: I've felt all year that whoever wins the title is
Speaker 1: pretty clearly going to come out of the East. And
Speaker 1: I've been on the side of Milwaukee or Boston. Leaning
Speaker 1: Milwaukee It's not a tough pick for me. I think
Speaker 1: that if you're going to compare them too. For example,
Speaker 1: Phoenix's roster, the town on the top four is comparable.
Speaker 1: Like Milwaukee is going to bring out the best play
Speaker 1: in the league, Giannis, maybe the best two way guard
Speaker 1: or the best defensive guard who's also an offensive star.
Speaker 1: Drew Holliday, this dominant interior defender in lethal three point shooting,
Speaker 1: Big Brook Lopez and Chris Middleton who we saw two
Speaker 1: years ago scored twenty four at night and was this
Speaker 1: incredible second creator in a title run. And then the
Speaker 1: five through eight they are whooping Phoenix. Is that Like
Speaker 1: Milwaukee's depth is so good, and so I'm very comfortable
Speaker 1: with that. And again it comes down to also just
Speaker 1: the reliability of that physical dominance. I think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be whoever comes out of the East unless somebody really
Speaker 1: impresses me in this playoff run in the West, and
Speaker 1: I do think it's gonna be Milwaukee. Yeah, And again,
Speaker 1: like we will, we are going to be doing shows
Speaker 1: throughout the postseason, and we'll react to new information if
Speaker 1: there are teams that look more impressive as the playoffs progress,
Speaker 1: like like here's the thing we both picked the Bucks,
Speaker 1: but like, if Yannis got hurt in the round one,
Speaker 1: it's not like we're gonna be like, hey, we're sticking
Speaker 1: with the Bucks. Is that, you know? Like if we're
Speaker 1: not like that, we're making predictions because that's part of
Speaker 1: our job. But at the end of the day, we're
Speaker 1: going to react to new information as it comes along,
Speaker 1: and at every single round we'll kind of circle back
Speaker 1: to these topics and try to figure out where we're at. Absolutely,
Speaker 1: and that's part of what's so fun about this postseason
Speaker 1: potentially is that it does feel like there are so
Speaker 1: many different teams who could bring it up to a
Speaker 1: level that we haven't seen consistent as wide open as
Speaker 1: I've ever seen in my time following the league. Absolutely,
Speaker 1: So with that in mind, there is definitely potential for
Speaker 1: a few upsets in this first round here as we
Speaker 1: look at how this seating has shaken out. What's your
Speaker 1: favorite upset pick, Jason for the first round? So, I
Speaker 1: think the Lakers and Warriors are both going to win
Speaker 1: their series, and technically the Lakers is a small upset
Speaker 1: in Vegas. I think they're like plus one oh eight
Speaker 1: right now or something like that. The Warriors are actually
Speaker 1: a significant favorite, so it doesn't count as a as
Speaker 1: an upset. Now. I don't believe either of these teams
Speaker 1: will win, but there are two significant underdogs right now Vegas.
Speaker 1: The Clippers are plus three eighty five to beat the
Speaker 1: Suns and the Nets are plus five sixty to beat
Speaker 1: the Sixers. And again, I will be picking the Suns
Speaker 1: and I will be picking the Sixers, both probably in
Speaker 1: five games or less. But my favorite upset pick is
Speaker 1: in the team that's most likely to do so. Is
Speaker 1: the Clippers. Now with the Nets, you know, I try
Speaker 1: to talk myself into it. I'm like, okay, so they're
Speaker 1: super athletic and long on the wing. Maybe they, you know,
Speaker 1: really just just double the hell out of Joel Embiid
Speaker 1: and solve some of this rotation stuff. And I have
Speaker 1: no doubt that the Nets will be able to cause
Speaker 1: some frustrations for the Philly from an offensive standpoint. But
Speaker 1: on the other end of the floor, all I can
Speaker 1: think of is, like, is Mkhale, Bridges and Spencer Dinwoodie
Speaker 1: going to be able to consistently get stops when you
Speaker 1: know that Joel Embiad's gonna be around the rim all
Speaker 1: series because they're gonna have to play Claxton as much
Speaker 1: as they as much as humanly possible. So like, I
Speaker 1: just don't see that as realistic. With the Clippers, you
Speaker 1: can kind of start to dry, like draw a line
Speaker 1: to see how it could go, Like maybe Kawhi just
Speaker 1: outplays kd Well, Like that's on the table. I wouldn't
Speaker 1: predict it. I think Katie's a better player. But that's
Speaker 1: if that happened, Like you and I'd be like, hey,
Speaker 1: that was cool. Remember when Kawhi out played like we
Speaker 1: wouldn't be stunned, you know, Um, Russell Westbrook and Norman
Speaker 1: Powell both could play well. The suns are not a
Speaker 1: good point of attack defense. That's the one weakness there.
Speaker 1: I think they'll probably end up deploying um Josha Kogi
Speaker 1: as much as they can on on kawhile Nard just
Speaker 1: just by this just for the simple fact is he
Speaker 1: can take that responsibility off from a workload standpoint, even
Speaker 1: though he's giving up some size there. Um, I think
Speaker 1: they'll probably throw Tory Craig on him a little a
Speaker 1: little bit as well. But like you wouldn't be surprised
Speaker 1: if if Russ and Powell got good matchups and they
Speaker 1: you know, lived in the paint all series long. We
Speaker 1: talked about this earlier in the show, but if zoo
Speaker 1: Box just just just dominated Deandreton wouldn't be surprised if
Speaker 1: zue Box just a better play in a lot of
Speaker 1: the physical areas of the game. He's as he's not
Speaker 1: as versatile offensively when it comes to, you know, the
Speaker 1: type of shot making that DeAndre Ayton can go to,
Speaker 1: but he's got a really reliable jump pook. He's excellent
Speaker 1: at fight. He's definitely a more physical player. You know,
Speaker 1: Aton's got a higher defensive ceiling, but he's rarely at
Speaker 1: that ceiling, you know, So that that's a matchup that
Speaker 1: could go the Clippers way. And and then the bench
Speaker 1: units we've talked about that, you know, the Clippers bench
Speaker 1: unit could have a good amount of success against Phoenix.
Speaker 1: So and then there's always the potential that Chris Paul
Speaker 1: could just have a nightmare series. So it's certainly possible.
Speaker 1: And I would say that of the long shot underdogs,
Speaker 1: they are the most likely to get a first round upset.
Speaker 1: I like it. I find that it's pretty unlikely, but
Speaker 1: you can't see the formula and I will say, like,
Speaker 1: we have seen the Clippers, because of their shooting ceiling,
Speaker 1: be able to survive the absence of one of their
Speaker 1: two stars. Like we saw it right. It was only
Speaker 1: two games against Utah, but they beat Utah game that
Speaker 1: Utah team that was quite good in the regular season
Speaker 1: without Kawhi Leonard because it was hey, well, that was
Speaker 1: a specific matchup because they were able to really exploit
Speaker 1: Gobert going five out. But nevertheless it was we have
Speaker 1: our one great offensive creator, We're going to shoot the
Speaker 1: hell out of the ball, and they had versatile defensive
Speaker 1: pieces who did their jobs well. I do have a
Speaker 1: couple issues with this Clippers team, one being that I
Speaker 1: think they've regressed defensively. They do still have a really
Speaker 1: nice spacing offensively, but I do have some concerns about
Speaker 1: the fact that Russ probably needs to be in a
Speaker 1: relatively high volume roll with PG out, like if they
Speaker 1: want that upside, because he brings the upside right, the
Speaker 1: dynamic athleticism getting to the rim, but there's a lot
Speaker 1: of downside that comes with that too, and so I
Speaker 1: like it. I can see the path. I can't see
Speaker 1: the path with Brooklyn. I can't see the path with
Speaker 1: any of these like eight one matchups, we don't know
Speaker 1: exactly what they are, but either way, so if you're
Speaker 1: going with a more strict definition of an upset, then
Speaker 1: I like that pick. My first thought here is Lakers Grizzlies, though,
Speaker 1: because I don't even consider Warriors Kings an upset, as
Speaker 1: you said, because of the odds, and Lakers Grizzlies, sure,
Speaker 1: in terms of betting odds is effectively a toss up,
Speaker 1: but it's still a two seven, and there's a lot
Speaker 1: of people who are really low on the Lakers after
Speaker 1: last night, it seems because it was that kind of
Speaker 1: rock fight game. But I just have a lot of
Speaker 1: questions about Memphis in the playoffs, and I think there's
Speaker 1: a lot to like about Lli. Like I understand that
Speaker 1: Memphis is able to produce really high level regular season offenses,
Speaker 1: but great playoff offenses tend to have a top tier
Speaker 1: offensive engine and probably really good shooting, and Memphis doesn't
Speaker 1: have either of those. They don't have great pull up shooting,
Speaker 1: they don't have a great spot up shooting, and Jaw
Speaker 1: is not a reliable top end offensive engine, right He's
Speaker 1: liable to have a totally off shooting night, he's liable
Speaker 1: to be an efficient in that role. You're not talking
Speaker 1: about Lebron, Steph, etc. And the Lakers really do shrink
Speaker 1: the court defensively, like their length, their athleticism there. I'm
Speaker 1: telling you, if Lebron's just decides in this playoff roun, hey,
Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna care. They could easily be the best defense,
Speaker 1: absolutely a top tier defense, out of this field. And
Speaker 1: it scares me for Memphis to have the court shrunk
Speaker 1: when so much of what they're doing is relying on
Speaker 1: jaw getting to the rim, and they're gonna have to
Speaker 1: trust their shooters who just really haven't been all that
Speaker 1: good at it. Like Triple Jake could be interesting with
Speaker 1: that pick and pop game, force Ad to guard on
Speaker 1: the perimeter more if that's the matchup, But it just
Speaker 1: doesn't really scare me this Memphis offense, whereas La, I
Speaker 1: know that Lebron and a D are probably gonna turn
Speaker 1: out a pretty good offense. It's gonna be physical, it's
Speaker 1: gonna be slow, it might not be dynamic shooting, but
Speaker 1: they're gonna produce. And I do think that this guard
Speaker 1: group in conjunction with one another, when you have good
Speaker 1: Austin Reeves or good Dennis shooter. You don't need good deal, right,
Speaker 1: You probably just need two out of the three. And
Speaker 1: all those guys are very capable creators, capable defenders can
Speaker 1: score in playmak in their different ways, and so I
Speaker 1: just trust the offensive formula more from LA. I think
Speaker 1: they can reach a higher defensive ceiling without Steven Adams,
Speaker 1: without Brandon Clark, Memphis doesn't look as good in that
Speaker 1: let's just physically bully you kind of mold not that
Speaker 1: would be easy against the Lakers anyway. So we've just
Speaker 1: seen that Memphis offense fall off. We've seen Lebron and
Speaker 1: a d elevated playoff offense, and even though these are
Speaker 1: different iterations, I kind of still fundamentally believe that that's
Speaker 1: the difference between these two teams. Yeah, it's funny. When
Speaker 1: the game ended last night, I was kind of like
Speaker 1: looking at that series as a toss up, and then
Speaker 1: I dug into it because I was just wired after
Speaker 1: that game and after we worked and I was just
Speaker 1: like I was just like, I'm awake from my wife's
Speaker 1: out of town. She's on a business trip. I was like,
Speaker 1: you know what, I'm just gonna start diving into this series,
Speaker 1: and every passing minute that I was looking into it more,
Speaker 1: I became more and more confident that the Lakers would win.
Speaker 1: It's really this simple. The Grizzlies postdadline. We talked about
Speaker 1: this a little bit earlier, but the Grizzlies post aadline
Speaker 1: have gone from being a great defensive team and a
Speaker 1: great rebounding team to a good defensive team and a
Speaker 1: bad rebounding team. That's just what the loss of Brandon
Speaker 1: Clark and Steven Adams does to you. I think one
Speaker 1: of the biggest, you know, adjustments that will see over
Speaker 1: the course of this series is You're gonna see I
Speaker 1: think because of the defensive ceiling that the Lakers can
Speaker 1: get to and the way they can shrink the floor,
Speaker 1: you're gonna see Taylor Jenkins have to make the incredibly
Speaker 1: difficult decision to downsize, and I think he's gonna go
Speaker 1: down in this series. With Tys Jones on the floor,
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be John Morant and Tis Jones
Speaker 1: with Desmond Baine, Dylan Brooks, and Jaren Jackson that gives
Speaker 1: them their best chance to score against that Laker unit.
Speaker 1: Here's the problem four of those dudes are six six
Speaker 1: or smaller. Yeah, and two of them are tiny guards.
Speaker 1: So and obviously Tis Jones a little bigger than Job
Speaker 1: from the standpoint of strength. But like they're gonna the Lakers,
Speaker 1: I think are gonna be able to play them down
Speaker 1: into smaller lineups where they can be even more physically imposing.
Speaker 1: I love the point you made about the guards, and
Speaker 1: this is one of my favorite things, Like when I
Speaker 1: look at when I look at championship contenders, I always
Speaker 1: look at these like specific call marks they have to hit,
Speaker 1: Like do they have the ability to hit the necessary
Speaker 1: defensive ceiling, Yes, the Lakers do. Do they have the
Speaker 1: rim protection because it's not just about perimeter defense. Rim
Speaker 1: protection and size around the pain is specifically important. Yes,
Speaker 1: you know, the ability to rebound, diversity of shock creation,
Speaker 1: so for instance, like having a big rim pressuring forward
Speaker 1: and a pull up shooting guard that can play in
Speaker 1: high pick and roll, like being able to score different
Speaker 1: ways offensively. But one of the big things that I
Speaker 1: look at is diversity of play style and the ability
Speaker 1: to make adjustments, the ability to have options. And that's
Speaker 1: what I love about this Laker's roster is like you
Speaker 1: can they're going to be if they play in multiple series,
Speaker 1: they're going to be series where it's like, oh, man,
Speaker 1: like Vanderbilt, lebron A d is the way to go,
Speaker 1: and and you know that frontline just with length and
Speaker 1: athleticism is going to kill everybody. But then there's going
Speaker 1: to be a series where it's like, Okay, the wing
Speaker 1: player that they have to guard is not necessarily a
Speaker 1: quick guy. He's more of a strong guy. And now
Speaker 1: we can bring in Ruey Hatchamura because he's bigger and
Speaker 1: stronger and he can hang more in those physical altercations,
Speaker 1: and he's actually having his best defensive season of his career,
Speaker 1: and he's so much more offensively skilled than Jared Vanderbilt,
Speaker 1: which gives you this offensive influx. Even just last night,
Speaker 1: the ability to deploy Dennis Schroeder when Dilo is just
Speaker 1: completely checked out of the game mentally, you're throwing Dennis
Speaker 1: Schroeder and he's actually like a really good and impactful
Speaker 1: player in this series. I think this series is going
Speaker 1: to be a big Dennis Schroeder series because of what
Speaker 1: he's gonna do on ball against John Moran. You know,
Speaker 1: if they have those options there, like Ossa Reeves had
Speaker 1: a rough night last night. If Dilo had it going
Speaker 1: and Austin didn't. There's a version of that game where
Speaker 1: it's Dennis Schroder and DeAngelo Russell that are on the floor,
Speaker 1: and they have gone to that group at times over
Speaker 1: the course of this end of the season. So this
Speaker 1: the Laker group checks a lot of boxes. Honestly, the
Speaker 1: only reason why I haven't picked them is question mark
Speaker 1: surrounding Lebron James, because you you just absolutely AD's inability
Speaker 1: to handle double teams has just made him have a
Speaker 1: certain ceiling when it comes to the offensive end of
Speaker 1: the floor in the playoffs, and so like, Lebron at
Speaker 1: the end of the day, has to be their best
Speaker 1: player if they're going to win the title, and right
Speaker 1: now he's not. AD's their best player, and so that's
Speaker 1: where my question marks are. But I don't think they
Speaker 1: need Lebron to be their best player to beat Memphis.
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be any Any move to
Speaker 1: try to counter the physical advantage of the Lakers, like,
Speaker 1: for instance, going with Xavier Tillman or a guy like
Speaker 1: David Roddy to do anything to increase their physical profile
Speaker 1: will immediately make them much easier to guard, which will
Speaker 1: put them in a predicament where they could run into
Speaker 1: some real problems against a really locked in Laker defense.
Speaker 1: Completely agree with you, and I also love the versatility
Speaker 1: that we see with this Lakers team. And it really
Speaker 1: does matter because sure you can look at the whoever
Speaker 1: the third best guy on this team might be on
Speaker 1: any given night, and it's not gonna vow you, but
Speaker 1: it's the ability to mix and match, to play different
Speaker 1: combinations for different strengths, to unlock that athletic ceiling, defensive
Speaker 1: ceiling at times that shotmaking. Nobody else has the amount
Speaker 1: of combinations I don't. I don't think that the Lakers do.
Speaker 1: And I mentioned this Grizzlies offense regressing in that playoff setting. Well,
Speaker 1: last year they were the number four regular season offense
Speaker 1: and then in the playoffs they were the number ten
Speaker 1: playoff offense out of sixteen teams. It's just tough when
Speaker 1: you don't have that consistent, super reliable shot making or
Speaker 1: as we've talked about, a Janis Lebron like, just get
Speaker 1: to the rim at will, no matter what, manufacture offense
Speaker 1: at that high level. Okay, so we've talked about our favorites.
Speaker 1: We've talked about upset candidates here. Out of all of
Speaker 1: the legitimate contenders, you see in this playoff field, Jason
Speaker 1: who was most likely to just blow up their roster
Speaker 1: after this year. So I'm excited to get into this
Speaker 1: because I was looking at it this morning and there's
Speaker 1: a lot of candidates that and I blow up is aggressive,
Speaker 1: and we'll get to that because I have a pick there.
Speaker 1: But like, there's a lot of teams that I think
Speaker 1: are gonna have to look at serious changes if they
Speaker 1: don't rise to the top of this pile. So, first
Speaker 1: of all, the clear knows like Boston Boston staying as
Speaker 1: is regardless of what happens. They just have too much
Speaker 1: talent and their stars are young, so you can expect
Speaker 1: them to continue to get better. I don't think the Lakers,
Speaker 1: because of how good they have been post deadline, even
Speaker 1: if they were to lose to Memphis, they're going to
Speaker 1: attribute that to Lebron being at less than one hundred
Speaker 1: percent and short just kind of like they're gonna look
Speaker 1: at it like, hey, let's get another training camp under
Speaker 1: our belt, right, But the one, the one thing that
Speaker 1: would make the Lakers a candidate is if Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: got hurt again, because then that thing that I keep
Speaker 1: talking about, where like if the dude just can't finish
Speaker 1: a playoff run, that's obviously an issue. The Nuggets. No,
Speaker 1: I think the Nuggets are running it back no matter what.
Speaker 1: I think. Even they can look at this like dude,
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray was still kind of coming back, like we
Speaker 1: can hit another level here. The Suns, I think are
Speaker 1: going to run it back no matter what happens. Everybody else, though,
Speaker 1: Like the Sixers, like they lose, you're probably gonna see
Speaker 1: at least Stock Rivers get fired and then maybe some
Speaker 1: changes in evolving James Harden. If the Clippers lose, I
Speaker 1: think you could end up seeing some changes. We'll get
Speaker 1: back to them in just a second. The Warriors. The
Speaker 1: Warriors lose, I would not be surprised if you saw
Speaker 1: a significant piece from the core removed. I don't think
Speaker 1: they'd go full rebuild, but I think they could. You
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if you saw one of like
Speaker 1: Clay Thompson or Draymond Green or Jordan Pool end up
Speaker 1: changing teams after the season. The Milwaukee Bucks, even I
Speaker 1: think if they came up short, I think they'd start
Speaker 1: to look at Chris Middleton and Drew Holliday is not
Speaker 1: good enough or reliable enough to be a legitimate number two,
Speaker 1: and then start to make some changes. The one team
Speaker 1: that I could see going full rebuild if it goes south,
Speaker 1: is the LA Clippers, similar logic to what I had
Speaker 1: been using with the Anthony Davis thing, like you don't
Speaker 1: like I still have people in my mentions every day like, oh,
Speaker 1: you want to trade a D. No, I don't, but
Speaker 1: I think a D like like there was a moment
Speaker 1: last night in the first half when he almost had
Speaker 1: that tip dunk, when he was just dominating the game
Speaker 1: on both ends of the floor athletically where I was like,
Speaker 1: is anybody better than this guy? Like like literally, you
Speaker 1: know yeah, But like if if you got hurt again,
Speaker 1: that'd be three years in a row, and like, how
Speaker 1: can you expect to build a team and plan for
Speaker 1: the NBA playoffs if you can't stay healthy? And like
Speaker 1: I kind of look at that from the Clippers perspective,
Speaker 1: like they the first year they lose disappoint and disappointing
Speaker 1: fashion in the bubble, which is really where you could
Speaker 1: start to look at from a team building standpoint, having
Speaker 1: redundancy of pull up jump shooting, a lack of rim protection,
Speaker 1: all all those sorts of things, which is a separate topic,
Speaker 1: but like after that, it's like it's it's been a
Speaker 1: pretty steady diet of like Kauai couldn't make it through
Speaker 1: the first playoff run, then Kawhi misses an entire season.
Speaker 1: Now Paul George potentially is going to miss a playoff run, Like,
Speaker 1: at what point do you look at this and go,
Speaker 1: what are we doing here? Not to mention, a lot
Speaker 1: of their key role players are starting to age out,
Speaker 1: you know, like Marcus Morris is like who knows if
Speaker 1: if you're if we're going to see Marcus Morris play
Speaker 1: at all in this first round series or being impactful
Speaker 1: at all. Robert Covington is fully fell a fallen out
Speaker 1: of the rotation. Nick Batum like has been mostly good
Speaker 1: for the Clippers, but he's getting older and older, Like,
Speaker 1: at what point do you look at this and go,
Speaker 1: we are beyond saving and get as much as you
Speaker 1: possibly can for Paul George and as much as you
Speaker 1: possibly can for Kawhi Leonard and start over at that point,
Speaker 1: especially when you don't have any draft compensation, and you're
Speaker 1: one way to do that is to flip those stars.
Speaker 1: So I think if the Clippers lose embarrassingly in the
Speaker 1: first round, that they would be the team most likely
Speaker 1: to blow up this summer. The Clippers are so tough
Speaker 1: to evaluate, but because when you think about the actual
Speaker 1: basketball product that we've seen them put out there at
Speaker 1: full strength, it's consistently been pretty darn good. Like obviously
Speaker 1: you mentioned that initial playoff disappointment, but I thought they
Speaker 1: were going to win the West in twenty twenty one.
Speaker 1: I thought that that was the best version that we've
Speaker 1: seen of them. That was amazing PG, that was amazing Kawhi.
Speaker 1: Their role guys were better than they are today. But
Speaker 1: you're right, they've been together four years, They've had one
Speaker 1: actual season where they were healthy when it mattered, and
Speaker 1: it was their first and so it is definitely tough
Speaker 1: to rely on that as your core is aging. As
Speaker 1: your supporting cast, although they're trying to supplement it in
Speaker 1: different ways, is for the most part, regressing. I think
Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense. However, I still think
Speaker 1: that Philly is the prime candidate, just because we have
Speaker 1: heard throughout this year, even as the Sixers have been
Speaker 1: thriving that James Harden wants to just go back to Houston,
Speaker 1: and I do agree with you. Doc is always kind
Speaker 1: of always a candidate on the chopping book, and I
Speaker 1: think is especially if this is another underachieving team. I
Speaker 1: don't know, we might not see Doc coach in the
Speaker 1: NBA again, Like how many times can you have these
Speaker 1: rosters that are supposed to I guess, yeah, that'll be
Speaker 1: an interesting dynamic to track. But to me, the Hardened
Speaker 1: thing and the fact that my expectation for the Sixers
Speaker 1: is that they lose in the second round and I
Speaker 1: get that that like feels disappointing with their talent level.
Speaker 1: But there's two teams out east do I think are better.
Speaker 1: But I don't know that a second round loss is
Speaker 1: gonna make James Hardens say, you know what, actually, this
Speaker 1: is where I really do want to be when maybe
Speaker 1: he just wants to have fun and you know, be
Speaker 1: the favorite in a city which he's never gonna be
Speaker 1: in Philly. So I think those are the two. I
Speaker 1: think everybody else you're looking at just a retool Denver
Speaker 1: could be interesting because I do think they might have
Speaker 1: to start asking ourselves if Okay, we've definitely done a
Speaker 1: really good job of building out this cast of role
Speaker 1: players with like the additions of KCP and Bruce Brown,
Speaker 1: those were massive, But is our ceiling with Jamal Murray
Speaker 1: as is our second option high enough? Do we need to,
Speaker 1: you know, try to find another high level two way
Speaker 1: wing to replace an MPJ. I could see questions like
Speaker 1: that coming up eventually, but I don't know that it's
Speaker 1: just yet. When Yeah, this is the first really good
Speaker 1: roster they've had since that bubble year, and this roster
Speaker 1: is clearly better than that one. So I think it's
Speaker 1: Clippers in Philly for sure. You know, It's funny. I
Speaker 1: was I can't remember exactly which player I was thinking
Speaker 1: about last night, but I was literally thinking to myself, like,
Speaker 1: if the Nuggets lost in their defense ended up being
Speaker 1: the issue again, I wonder if I wonder if Nikola
Speaker 1: Yokich is the type of player you could get away
Speaker 1: with playing alongside an additional rim protector. And I'm not
Speaker 1: I want to think about it more because it was
Speaker 1: just kind of a passing idea, but like, look at
Speaker 1: how Aaron Gordon has fit on that team, basically in
Speaker 1: the dunker spot and guarding opposing forwards. Like and I'll
Speaker 1: just throw out a name that's not really achievable, but
Speaker 1: just an example, like could a guy like Nyaka kong
Speaker 1: Wu or even like a Nick Klaxton type of guy,
Speaker 1: just like a guy that has the ability to switch
Speaker 1: out onto the perimeter but also guard the rim, who
Speaker 1: cares about their defense of limitations as long as they
Speaker 1: can catch and finish dunks. Would that be something that
Speaker 1: that could help because I don't think offense is the issue.
Speaker 1: I think it's just having legitimate rim protection so that
Speaker 1: you give your perimeter defenders a fighting chance. But yeah,
Speaker 1: I think I think they're in another example of a retool.
Speaker 1: The only reason I didn't pick the Sixers is because
Speaker 1: I still kind of consider that a retool. You know,
Speaker 1: like if you if you keep Joe Lmbid, and you
Speaker 1: keep Tyres Maxie and and you keep a bunch of
Speaker 1: these important players, but you basically flipped Tobias Harris and
Speaker 1: James Harden in an attempt to bring some additional talent in.
Speaker 1: Like I don't necessarily think that that's that's why I
Speaker 1: ended up going with the Clippers, but I would argue
Speaker 1: that the Sixers are definitely the most likely to retool,
Speaker 1: because I mean, you're right, they're gonna lose the Boston
Speaker 1: in my opinion. I mean, they have a chance to
Speaker 1: win that series, but they're gonna win. They're most like
Speaker 1: they'll be. There'll be a significant underdog in that series.
Speaker 1: They'll probably be at least plus two hundred, if not
Speaker 1: a little bit worse. And if they lose that series,
Speaker 1: like they are going to make some type of significant
Speaker 1: and it's just a question of what. So I do
Speaker 1: agree with you there, Carson. Thank you so much for
Speaker 1: taking time today to come and and talk through some
Speaker 1: of the stuff. I am looking forward to doing it
Speaker 1: more frequently as we get through the playoffs. That's all
Speaker 1: we have for today, guys. I sincerely appreciate you guys
Speaker 1: supporting the show. Don't forget to check out our other
Speaker 1: series previews. We've got at least three more coming this
Speaker 1: week over the next few days. As always, I appreciate
Speaker 1: you guys, and I will see you tomorrow. The