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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman. Later on in the show, some

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Speaker 1: of you will love this, some of you will not.

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Speaker 1: Dear Revel who is not with us today, but Simon

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Speaker 1: Hunter professional better will be. So we will run through

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Speaker 1: the five picks that Darren and I will enter into

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Speaker 1: the one point five million super Contest, in which we

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Speaker 1: are now twelve and eight after a difficult two and

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Speaker 1: three weekend. Still plus four games in the five that's

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Speaker 1: pretty good, plush. We're gonna have some Scooch Roulette coming

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Speaker 1: up soon because I'm joined by the bookmaker to the

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Speaker 1: world from the Orleans representing all the BOYD Gaming books.

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Speaker 1: Mr Bob Scucci, Hello, my friend Chad. Has it gone Scooch?

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Speaker 1: You and I are also doing a show that is

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Speaker 1: a live from twelve to one available on the Radio

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Speaker 1: dot Com app that is as much fun as any

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Speaker 1: show we've ever done. It feels like the exact thing

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Speaker 1: that this podcast should be. Like if I could transplant

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Speaker 1: this podcast and just add a little bit more urgency

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Speaker 1: because like the games are about to kick off, like

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Speaker 1: the excitement we get when you make a line change

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Speaker 1: today versus the excitement we get when you're making a

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Speaker 1: line change because you just got a bed for Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's quite different. I'll tell you what it's. It's the

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Speaker 1: fastest moving show I've ever done. We're on that show

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Speaker 1: for roughly an hour, and that hour goes by so

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Speaker 1: fast because we're I'm doing so many things. I'm actually working,

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Speaker 1: I'm watching the bets coming in. You've got an hour

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Speaker 1: to kick off, and we're breaking down every game, just

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Speaker 1: like we do here. But there's an hour to kick off.

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, It goes by pretty quick. It

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Speaker 1: is the closest thing to Mad Money by Jim Kramer

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Speaker 1: on CNBC that there is in the betting space. Everybody

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Speaker 1: is trying to do betting shows. This is the one

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Speaker 1: that actually has pace and interest and picks and information.

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Speaker 1: It's everything you could want to accept. Maybe brilliant personalities, true,

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Speaker 1: just saying. I'm just saying, just saying, scot who what

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Speaker 1: are you gonna say? Listen, I'm saying, we're coming off

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Speaker 1: a great week. I know because the Kansas City Chiefs

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Speaker 1: didn't come through. The New England Patriots didn't come through

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Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Rams, didn't come through the Indianapolis Colts

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Speaker 1: didn't come through. Every team that you needed in your

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Speaker 1: parlay basically got knocked out. You guys are building buildings

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Speaker 1: out there this week. Yeah, this was probably the biggest weekend,

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Speaker 1: the biggest Sunday I've seen in years. I mean, I'd

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Speaker 1: have to go back a couple of a couple of

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Speaker 1: years and see when we've had a better Sunday. But

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Speaker 1: you can't ask for much more. I guess. I guess

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Speaker 1: if Kansas City had lost the game straight up against Detroit,

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Speaker 1: it might have been a little bit better. But I

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Speaker 1: can't see how it could have gotten much better. And

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Speaker 1: I've often talked about it's a combination of games that

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Speaker 1: we need. We need the right mix of straight back

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Speaker 1: games and the right mix of parlay games. Uh. You know,

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Speaker 1: the the Chargers in the Dolphin game. Even though there

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Speaker 1: was a lot of parlay money on the Chargers, there

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Speaker 1: was a lot of straight bet money on the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: So I didn't mind losing that big parlay game because

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Speaker 1: we want a bunch in the straight bets, And we

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Speaker 1: killed enough of the other parlays that it didn't matter.

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Speaker 1: So it was just the right combination. We killed a

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Speaker 1: lot of teasers, money lines, Uh, I'd like to clone

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Speaker 1: that Sunday and use it again a couple more times

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Speaker 1: this year. Never gonna happen, now, you know. It's like

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Speaker 1: when uh the for for the first preseason game of

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Speaker 1: the year, I forgot who it was. Somebody beat somebody

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Speaker 1: and I want on like, you know, a last second

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Speaker 1: tip ball in the end zone. And that was basically

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Speaker 1: me emptying the karma bank in week one of the preseason.

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Speaker 1: You've em the karma bank, my friend. Yep. Uh, Let's

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Speaker 1: kick off. Let's kick off week five, starting with a

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Speaker 1: Thursday night game. Todd Gurley of the Los Angeles Rams

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Speaker 1: came out the other day and basically said, these games

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Speaker 1: are crap. I hate playing them. They're unfair. Uh, here's

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Speaker 1: what's interesting to me. Seattle after beating up in Arizona

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Speaker 1: and l A after getting beat up by the Bucks, which,

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Speaker 1: by the way, one of us had the Bucks and

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Speaker 1: Scoot row Let the other did not. Um, we'll get

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Speaker 1: to that later in the show when we make our

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Speaker 1: scoochrou Let picks. Uh, Seattle is now a one point favorite.

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Speaker 1: I will tell you the look aheadline on this. We'll

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Speaker 1: Seattle plus two. You want to know how I know

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Speaker 1: you want to know how I remember that because you

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Speaker 1: bet it by accident. As you know I am. I

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Speaker 1: am betting in theory, betting in theory every single NFL

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Speaker 1: game this year with my friend Matt, who I've been

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Speaker 1: doing the pickskin pick them contests for years against, and

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Speaker 1: I beat him so often. I'm just like, dude, let's

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Speaker 1: just bet these games together this year. We'll have a

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Speaker 1: better time than it'll save me money. I'm buying you

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Speaker 1: second place trophies. And uh, I accidentally like told Matt

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Speaker 1: to bet Seattle plus two when I was looking at

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Speaker 1: the schedule, and um, I didn't realize that. Like, we

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Speaker 1: had gone through week four into week five, so we

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Speaker 1: had a Seattle plus two bet as a home dog,

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Speaker 1: even though the Seattle Seahawks are now one point favorites

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Speaker 1: over the Rams. Yeah, one and a half. So we

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Speaker 1: saw a lot of money right out of the gate

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Speaker 1: on this one. We opened the game of pick on

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Speaker 1: and and look, I mean the Rams, even at three

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Speaker 1: and one, they're not garnering any any attention from the

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Speaker 1: public anymore, the general public. I mean they've been gradually

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Speaker 1: getting off them each each game, and uh, this last weekend,

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Speaker 1: it it seemed like, uh uh, a lot of people

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Speaker 1: were expecting the Bucks to cover. I don't think that

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Speaker 1: many people were expecting the Bucks to win straight up,

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Speaker 1: but uh, there's a lot of points for the for

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Speaker 1: the Rams to be laying, and uh, I think after

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Speaker 1: that game, the public is going to kind of take

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Speaker 1: a time out on betting on the Rams. So, I

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Speaker 1: mean the ticket account is heavy, slightly heavier on the

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Speaker 1: on the Seahawks with us, but it's the big money

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Speaker 1: that drove this money up to one and a half

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Speaker 1: from pick them. So, like you said, to look aheadline

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Speaker 1: probably would have been the Rams a slight favorite. But

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Speaker 1: after a few games are just you know, I mean,

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Speaker 1: they barely covered against the uh the Browns. That was

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Speaker 1: that was a game where they covered. But I think

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Speaker 1: the people that bet on them were kind of lucky

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Speaker 1: to get out alive in that one. Yeah, it's kind

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Speaker 1: of stunning, right, like they have just completely fallen off

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Speaker 1: a cliff and look some of us I remember on

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Speaker 1: the podcast last week, not that I want to shoot

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Speaker 1: my own horn, but I do remember saying I do

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Speaker 1: remember saying the run on the Rams is over. I

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Speaker 1: don't care what line you said for the Bucks. I

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Speaker 1: am betting the Bucks, and uh, I did just that.

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Speaker 1: I made them sort of my scruture let pick um,

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Speaker 1: and I was right. And now everyone's caught up and

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Speaker 1: there's been a major adjustment. But have you done a

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Speaker 1: huge adjustment on the Rams overall rating or are you

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Speaker 1: just sort of trying to read the market here? No? No,

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Speaker 1: just trying to read the market. We haven't really adjusted them.

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Speaker 1: And I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams rebounded and

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Speaker 1: win that and win this one. I mean, Seattle really

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Speaker 1: hasn't impressed either. I mean, nobody in the NFC to

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Speaker 1: be on us with it is just as dominant as

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Speaker 1: you see, kind of like the Patriots and the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: in the a f C. You know, there was a

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Speaker 1: couple of teams that we thought, uh would would kind

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Speaker 1: of shine and be that dominant NFC team, but uh,

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Speaker 1: you're we're seeing a lot of vulnerabilities. You know, for

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Speaker 1: for a while it was the Packers of the Vikings,

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Speaker 1: and then both of them showed of vulnerabilities, and then

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Speaker 1: it was the Rams and the Cowboys, and then you know,

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys lose, and so it's it's it's kind of

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Speaker 1: up for grabs and this both teams coming into this

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Speaker 1: one at three and one. That's why we kind of

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Speaker 1: started it at a pick them. We did it. We

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Speaker 1: did adjust a little bit, just based off of the

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Speaker 1: last couple of weekends. But I wouldn't be surprised if

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Speaker 1: the Rams rebounded this one. Yeah, I wouldn't either. Actually,

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Speaker 1: I'm really glad I got the Seahawks at two and

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Speaker 1: a half. Um. But then again, like the Rams, is

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Speaker 1: a dog is an interesting play? I mean right now,

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Speaker 1: it's not enough of a dog to make a difference. Um.

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Speaker 1: But all right, I think we know how we feel

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Speaker 1: about that one. Hold on, I just lost my next game.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders, Chicago visiting the

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Speaker 1: Oakland Raiders, basically actually playing that they're playing this one.

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Speaker 1: They're playing London. That's right, that's right. It's a weird game,

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Speaker 1: then it is. How do you? How do you? How

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Speaker 1: do you set the line for those games? Well, it's

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Speaker 1: funny because we after the Bears, after the Bears win

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Speaker 1: against the Vikings, you would have thought that everybody would

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Speaker 1: have just been all over this Bears team, and it

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Speaker 1: wasn't the case. We opened the Bears five and a

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Speaker 1: half and the first first couple of bets out of

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Speaker 1: the gate were the Raiders. Uh, so we're pretty heavy

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Speaker 1: on the Raiders in straight bets, and and to be honest,

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Speaker 1: even in the parlay count in the ticket count, that's

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Speaker 1: not too lopsided either. So surprising a little bit that

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Speaker 1: even in the bears big win against the Vikings, which

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Speaker 1: surprised me. I think I had the Viking on on

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Speaker 1: a as a take in another uh show too. And

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Speaker 1: but yet the public just doesn't like this Chicago offense.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they know that the defense can can stiffen

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Speaker 1: up and and shut some teams down, but uh, they're

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Speaker 1: they're just not enamored with the with the offense. Of course,

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Speaker 1: the quarterback went out, Strobisky went out too, so uh

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Speaker 1: you know that, and Chicago still won with the backup Daniels.

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Speaker 1: So but in this one, I actually I think the

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Speaker 1: Raiders are a live dog here. They're they're traveling to London.

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Speaker 1: I think we both put at the Raiders last week

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Speaker 1: against the Colts, saying that the adjustment on on the

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Speaker 1: Colts was probably a little too much based on three

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Speaker 1: wins that were against really not great teams. Uh, and

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Speaker 1: we weren't really surprised that the Raiders were able to

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Speaker 1: uh win the game straight up and especially cover getting

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Speaker 1: getting seven points. Uh So I think the Raiders can

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Speaker 1: move the ball against this Bears team. Um, I could

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Speaker 1: understand the sharp move. I'm just a little puzzled by

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Speaker 1: why the public hasn't weighted yet, well, because they know

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Speaker 1: the Bears are playing at backup quarterback and they're not

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Speaker 1: a very impressive team. Yeah, but it's not, No, it's not.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, just to be against the Raiders, I

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Speaker 1: guess you know just one week, what a difference just

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Speaker 1: one week makes Because they've been against the Raiders every

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Speaker 1: week and then finally the Raiders win one is suddenly

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Speaker 1: they're they're gonna be betting the Raiders. Wow, this totally

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Speaker 1: makes sense to me. Those like the Raiders go on

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Speaker 1: the road against a Cults team that was starting to

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Speaker 1: get a ton of love. They whip them pretty badly.

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Speaker 1: The Bears have another struggle at home, even with the

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Speaker 1: backup quarterback. Like, there's no way someone's going to commend

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Speaker 1: them Bears, Like in this game, all of the public

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Speaker 1: sentiment to me would end up being on the Raiders,

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Speaker 1: And like we're not seeing that from money perspective yet,

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Speaker 1: but it wouldn't surprise me as the week goes on. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it should be a low scoring game. It's one of

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Speaker 1: the lower totals on the board. Uh. The fact that

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Speaker 1: they're planning in London adds a little flavor to it,

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Speaker 1: but just uh not, it won't be. It won't be

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Speaker 1: one of the more heavily back games. Public is whacky.

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Speaker 1: Buffalo is visiting Tennessee. Buffalo played really well, Like these

216
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Speaker 1: defenses are just that both of those defenses, the Patriots

217
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Speaker 1: and the Bills are just really good. Like wow, the

218
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Speaker 1: defensive backs like that was just a torture fest in

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Speaker 1: being able to get the ball down the field. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Tennessee is the three point favorites. So you're basically saying

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Speaker 1: these teams are even on a neutral field. Um, anyone

222
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Speaker 1: bett in any which way right now? Um no, you

223
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Speaker 1: know we've had it up and down, the game off

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Speaker 1: the board, then back on the board. You know, still

225
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Speaker 1: waiting on Josh Allen, who left that game with a concussion.

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Speaker 1: Uh so so most of that game. Uh, it was

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Speaker 1: kind of an impressive performance actually with without without Josh

228
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Speaker 1: Allen in the game, and um, you know they were

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Speaker 1: down thirteen nothing in the fourth quarter. The Bills were

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Speaker 1: and uh they held New England's only three points in

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Speaker 1: the next three quarters and uh and made made a

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Speaker 1: game of it. Uh you know the Patriots were my

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Speaker 1: scoots were let pick and uh you know, thirteen thirteen nothing.

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Speaker 1: I thought we had that one in the bag. But uh,

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Speaker 1: they ended up only winning by six and we were

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Speaker 1: laying We're laying seven in that one. So tough one

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Speaker 1: for the Scooch were let game hurt a little bit.

238
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Speaker 1: I don't know which way to go with this game.

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Speaker 1: I mean, especially with through the Josh Allen situation. Uh,

240
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Speaker 1: Tennessee being incredibly up and down, seeming to get like

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Speaker 1: wins against teams that we thought we're going to be

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Speaker 1: better than they were. I guess it's lined right. I

243
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Speaker 1: probably would stay away from this game. Yeah, I think

244
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Speaker 1: I lean Tennessee only because they're they're at home, Bills

245
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Speaker 1: are banged up. Uh, Tennessee has shown that they can play.

246
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Speaker 1: They are up and down. When they lay an egg,

247
00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:04,439
Speaker 1: they lay a big egg. But when Mariota's is clicking,

248
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Speaker 1: I mean this this team can put up a lot

249
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Speaker 1: of points. Um. So you know we saw him dude

250
00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:13,840
Speaker 1: against against the Browns and uh, and you know against Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: They held Atlanta at the ten points last week too,

252
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Speaker 1: So I would favor Tennessee. I think three points is

253
00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:22,760
Speaker 1: probably the right number. But I think if I had

254
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Speaker 1: to play it, i'd played Tennessee. Houston really poor performance

255
00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:31,080
Speaker 1: the other day against Carolina. I thought they would just

256
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Speaker 1: come out and dominate that game. Kyle Allen again played

257
00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,800
Speaker 1: incredibly well, made some clutch plays. They got Atlanta visiting

258
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Speaker 1: Houston this weekend. Boy, this team is just this team

259
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Speaker 1: has falling apart. I don't know how you bet. I

260
00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:46,520
Speaker 1: don't know. I mean it's a dead number. I don't

261
00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:49,640
Speaker 1: know how you bet against the Texans in this game. Yeah,

262
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Speaker 1: you know, I like the Texans again. Uh last week

263
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Speaker 1: and we saw that number moved from four to six

264
00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,760
Speaker 1: back down to five. That number was all over the place.

265
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Speaker 1: We thought. Uh. I was a little surprised at the

266
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Speaker 1: performance of the Texas. I wouldn't expect back to back

267
00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:09,920
Speaker 1: bad performances at home here. I tried to open tech

268
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Speaker 1: the Texans a little high, but they haven't done anything

269
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Speaker 1: with it. With it the sharp guys, Uh, they haven't

270
00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:18,840
Speaker 1: bet anything on this game. And uh, we may have

271
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Speaker 1: to go to five five and a half to see

272
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Speaker 1: if we can get a little action on the Falcons.

273
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Speaker 1: It's another game where I'm going to favor the Texas

274
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Speaker 1: again and see if we can get a little Falcons action. Uh,

275
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Speaker 1: like you said that the Falcons Uh after the first

276
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Speaker 1: couple of games of the year. Just nobody's betting on

277
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Speaker 1: this team. Yeah, they're the team that we always thought

278
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Speaker 1: they would be, Like every year when they start off

279
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Speaker 1: five and oh, but it turns out they beat five

280
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Speaker 1: really bad teams and you didn't know they'd beat five

281
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Speaker 1: bad teams until week thirteen. Now they're not even getting

282
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Speaker 1: the five bad teams. Yeah, you've always faded this team,

283
00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 1: do I always have? Uh? Really interesting game. Baltimore is

284
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Speaker 1: a road favorite. I don't know what you have met

285
00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:02,520
Speaker 1: right now. Baltimore is a road favorite. Uh at Pittsburgh.

286
00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:06,400
Speaker 1: Baltimore road favorite at Pittsburgh. Yeah, we've got him at

287
00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,120
Speaker 1: three and a half. And it's just like just a

288
00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 1: lot of money on this game just right out of

289
00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:14,280
Speaker 1: the gate. You know. We um we we waited till

290
00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:18,280
Speaker 1: the Monday night game was over before posting the line,

291
00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:21,720
Speaker 1: and we hung the Ravens minus four right out of

292
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Speaker 1: the gate. We took some money on the on the

293
00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:28,000
Speaker 1: Steelers at UH plus four, we went to three and

294
00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:29,920
Speaker 1: a half. We took some more money at plus three

295
00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:32,880
Speaker 1: and a half, UM, but then we somebody came right

296
00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:34,960
Speaker 1: back and laid the three and a half. So we're

297
00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,080
Speaker 1: getting good two way at three and a half of

298
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,320
Speaker 1: just a lively game and just a lot of action

299
00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:44,160
Speaker 1: on this one. Um. You know, Baltimore uh taken. Looking

300
00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:48,040
Speaker 1: at last week's game, a lot of people expected Baltimore

301
00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:51,360
Speaker 1: to just roll over Cleveland, having looked so good in

302
00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 1: the first few games out of the uh of the

303
00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:56,480
Speaker 1: of the year out of the gate. I thought the

304
00:16:56,520 --> 00:17:01,280
Speaker 1: defense was finally stepping up, and then uh, they just

305
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:05,919
Speaker 1: they just get annihilated. So, UM, I guess it creates

306
00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:08,480
Speaker 1: it creates just a little doubt in the better's mind.

307
00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:12,639
Speaker 1: So uh prior to prior to last night's game, I

308
00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,560
Speaker 1: think we would we would have gotten just all Baltimore action.

309
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:20,119
Speaker 1: But I think, uh, you know, Pittsburgh at least played

310
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:23,160
Speaker 1: a played a decent game, and uh played well enough

311
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:24,879
Speaker 1: to give a little confidence to a lot of the

312
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:28,840
Speaker 1: public betters. Yeah, that was an interesting game last night. Uh,

313
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:33,000
Speaker 1: Steelers finally look good. But you never know, like against Cincinnati.

314
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:37,080
Speaker 1: Cincinnati continues to be one of those teams every other week,

315
00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:40,040
Speaker 1: every other week, like and we'll get to them in

316
00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:41,920
Speaker 1: a second because they're playing in Arizona, and that's that's

317
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:45,240
Speaker 1: coming up on my list. Uh, New England at Washington.

318
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Speaker 1: Oh Jesus Scooch. What nobody had on this? I'm I'm

319
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:55,840
Speaker 1: seeing fifteen and a half. Yeah, we're up fifteen fifteen, um,

320
00:17:55,960 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 1: but no significant that. It's just a lot of little

321
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,119
Speaker 1: vets um. The thicket account is, you know, eight to

322
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 1: one Patriots the Redskins. It's another game. I feel like

323
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,399
Speaker 1: this is kind of deja vu the last three weeks

324
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:13,639
Speaker 1: with uh, you know, fifteen sixteen points spreads on the road.

325
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,880
Speaker 1: You know, uh, you know every week we're we we've

326
00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,240
Speaker 1: got a sixteen point road favorite. I can't remember a

327
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 1: season when when we've had like, uh, three weeks in

328
00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 1: a row. It's just incredible. You know, last week the

329
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:30,880
Speaker 1: Chargers end up covering the sixteen against the against the Dolphins. Uh.

330
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:32,879
Speaker 1: I will say though that the one thing that is

331
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,480
Speaker 1: saving us, at least in the parley department, is the

332
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:39,480
Speaker 1: Patriots have not covered the last two weeks, so as

333
00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,640
Speaker 1: dominant as they are. You know, they're laying these huge numbers.

334
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,959
Speaker 1: And you know, we got really lucky with the Jets

335
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 1: cover against the Patriots because the Jets offense could not

336
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,159
Speaker 1: move the ball, and but the Jets defense kept him

337
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:53,840
Speaker 1: in in that game. And then last week, the Bill's

338
00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,280
Speaker 1: defense kept him in that game and covered. So two

339
00:18:56,320 --> 00:19:00,199
Speaker 1: weeks in a row where the Patriots haven't gotten to cover. Um,

340
00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 1: you know, the normal handicapper and me would say take

341
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,960
Speaker 1: the home dog plus fift team, you know, Washington and home.

342
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:11,920
Speaker 1: But these are these are strange times, and the Patriots

343
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,320
Speaker 1: of you know, the Phi logic, and it just seems

344
00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 1: like I always on the wrong side of the Patriots.

345
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:18,399
Speaker 1: I don't think we've ever one been on the right

346
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,400
Speaker 1: side of the Patriots Super Bowl going back to two

347
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:25,520
Speaker 1: thousand two in the Rams and and even and even

348
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 1: in these games, we're just always on the wrong side

349
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:30,800
Speaker 1: of the Patriots. Yeah, they are so freaking hard. Right

350
00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:33,239
Speaker 1: Like last week, I finally gave in. I finally just

351
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:37,360
Speaker 1: decided I'm better the Patriots. Like you win, uncle, I'm

352
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:42,400
Speaker 1: gonna better the Patriots. And of course last week they

353
00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,000
Speaker 1: drop kick me by not covering by a point with

354
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:52,479
Speaker 1: so many opportunities to cover that game, right, Absolutely, they

355
00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:54,159
Speaker 1: should have covered that game. I mean, I'm happy they

356
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,159
Speaker 1: didn't from the bookmaker's point of view, but you know,

357
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:01,679
Speaker 1: they seemed like they could have covered that game easy. Uh. Meanwhile,

358
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 1: they're going against there on the road, going against I'm

359
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 1: assuming Dwayne Dwyne Haskins is starting. Has that been announced? Uh,

360
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,920
Speaker 1: hasn't been announced, but that's our assumption. Okay, So on

361
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 1: the road against the quarterback who looked befuddled against the Giants,

362
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 1: who looked like he was not getting any help from

363
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 1: his team or his coaches, and now he's supposed to

364
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 1: play against the defense that has given up one touchdown

365
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 1: that was a that was a fourth down sneak. Yeah.

366
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,040
Speaker 1: Oh man, I'm gonna have to bet the Patriots is

367
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 1: fifteen and a half point favorites on their road. Yeah.

368
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,639
Speaker 1: I'm waiting for them to do something that nobody's tipped

369
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,120
Speaker 1: their hand on this one. Um, I guess it wouldn't

370
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:47,960
Speaker 1: hurt for me to go up to fifteen and a half.

371
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:53,680
Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna try it. Line ches fifteen and a half.

372
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 1: There we go, done, Let's see what happens. Let's see

373
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,879
Speaker 1: what happens while we're on the show. Uh Uh. The

374
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the Carolina Panthers, Carolina minus three, minus

375
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 1: three and a half, starting to show a little life

376
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,880
Speaker 1: the Panthers. The peel always the Cam Newton change has

377
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:14,879
Speaker 1: been helpful. It's probably not what they were thinking. They

378
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 1: wouldn't hope for it, but Kyle Allen has brought some

379
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:22,479
Speaker 1: lights to that team. That defense is just fierce. That

380
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 1: defense Yep, now they really are. And uh, you know,

381
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,719
Speaker 1: as long as Kyle Allen could continue being efficient, they

382
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 1: can rely on the defense. You know. That's like I said,

383
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 1: the big win against Houston last week. We did have

384
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 1: them rated pretty high going into the season, and then

385
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,719
Speaker 1: after a couple of losses, Uh, we kind of downgraded

386
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 1: them a little bit. So we might be getting them

387
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 1: back up to where they were to be beginning of

388
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 1: the season. And but of course Jacksonville has been impressive

389
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 1: to its going. Gardner Minshew just continues, uh to to

390
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 1: you know, keep this team always in the game and

391
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 1: lead fourth quarter comeback x and uh, there's another impressive

392
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:07,120
Speaker 1: performance last week and getting to win. Um. So I'll

393
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,359
Speaker 1: tell you that whole a f C South, it's just

394
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 1: I think every team is two and two and and

395
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 1: they just play every game down to the wire. There

396
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 1: are a lot of just low scoring games, and and

397
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 1: they all seem they all seem to come down to

398
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 1: just the last few minutes of the game. You look

399
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:27,479
Speaker 1: at the Colts games, the Jaguar games. I guess the

400
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,119
Speaker 1: Titans are the only ones that they neither get blown

401
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 1: out or blow the feet the other team out. But

402
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 1: I would expect another close game in this one. We

403
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 1: have a low total at forty one, so uh, I

404
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 1: would expect another low scoring game, defensive game, and uh

405
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,160
Speaker 1: I think three and a half's the right number. We're

406
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,439
Speaker 1: not getting a whole lot of action on either side.

407
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 1: We've got a little bit of sharp money on the Jaguars,

408
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 1: but not enough to make us move it to three,

409
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 1: at least not yet. But I think if it went

410
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,680
Speaker 1: in one direction, it would probably go towards three. Though.

411
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 1: This next game is so so bad. The Arizona Cardinals

412
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 1: visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. I don't know how you handicapped

413
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: this game. I don't know how you make a line

414
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 1: for this game. The Bengals are coming off of a

415
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 1: bad loss, so I guess this is the week where

416
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 1: they look good there at home. I guess a team

417
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,239
Speaker 1: that might have fooled us into thinking they were at

418
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,919
Speaker 1: least halfway decent offensively because what they did in the

419
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,880
Speaker 1: first two weeks, but they've been dreadful the past two weeks.

420
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 1: I just talked myself into the Bengals. Oh no, Well,

421
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 1: if it makes you feel any better, we did open

422
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 1: them up, you know, a little high. We opened them

423
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 1: up that UH four and the couple first bet out

424
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 1: of the gate Sunday night, we're on the Cardinals. They

425
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,919
Speaker 1: took four, they took three and a half. We we

426
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 1: then went to uh minus three and a half even money,

427
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,200
Speaker 1: so which means we're pretty close to go into three.

428
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 1: I mean, look, you've got two bad teams. Neither one

429
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 1: of these teams even has a win yet. At least

430
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:05,640
Speaker 1: Arizona has a tie in that first game against Detroit

431
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 1: to open the season. But these just two bad teams. Uh, Arizona,

432
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:13,719
Speaker 1: they seem like they showed a lot of life, and

433
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,120
Speaker 1: we thought that this team was getting better each week

434
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 1: and uh that that performance against the Ravens just really

435
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 1: stood out. But maybe it just took too much out

436
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 1: of him going into the next game because they didn't

437
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 1: show any life last Sunday, so it would be tough

438
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 1: to bet on Cleveland. But we have to make them

439
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: the favorites at home. And I guess I can understand

440
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 1: that the first couple of bets on the Cardinals, you

441
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:42,200
Speaker 1: mean Cincinnati be tough to bet on Cincinnati. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

442
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 1: I mean it's tough to bet on Cleveland too, But

443
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 1: but in this case, I don't know, man, I feel

444
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 1: like it's a square play to bet on the home

445
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 1: favorite in this spot as a default. Maybe you're right.

446
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 1: I think they got to give this a little bit

447
00:24:56,600 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 1: more of an examination, and maybe I do. I don't

448
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,880
Speaker 1: like it at three. I wanted I gotta get that hook.

449
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 1: I mean, if I were to play it, I think

450
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 1: there's probably more value on Arizona than than Cincinnati. Uh.

451
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 1: This Cincinnati team, I had him the one week against

452
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,920
Speaker 1: UM when they were a home favorite. Uh, they're laying

453
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 1: one against the forty Niners and they just got blown out.

454
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 1: But that was coming off of a week where they

455
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 1: lose to Seattle, So so they can hang with a

456
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 1: good team. And you know, they think probably should have

457
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 1: won that game if it wasn't for a turnover in

458
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 1: the red zone. Uh, so, so how do you explain

459
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 1: the team that you know probably should have beaten Seattle

460
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 1: and then gets blown out by the by the Niners,

461
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:48,919
Speaker 1: doesn't doesn't even come close to the with the Steelers. Um,

462
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 1: if they're gonna get it, it's a tough one. I

463
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: it would be tough to lay the points with Cincinnati.

464
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 1: If I had to bet it, I'd probably bet Arizona

465
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 1: Tampa Day. This is a right game, Tampa Bay at

466
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 1: New Orleans, both teams coming up coming off of big,

467
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 1: big wins like this has let down spot written all

468
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 1: over it, except you got both teams that are like

469
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 1: potentially in the letdown spot. If I'm getting half a point.

470
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 1: If I'm getting half a point on the Bucks, which

471
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,200
Speaker 1: the line is at three and a half, I'm taking

472
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 1: Famous Jamis. Yeah. So, um, this was probably the most

473
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 1: lopsided that game just from the wise guy perspective. We've

474
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 1: got more money on the Bucks, uh than I do

475
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 1: at this point in the week on any other one

476
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 1: single team we opened. We opened the game five, which

477
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 1: was probably very similar to what the line would have

478
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 1: been before Sunday's games, meaning we didn't adjust too much

479
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 1: off of the Saints win. We didn't adjust too much

480
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 1: off of the Bucks win. We took the Bucks Rams

481
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 1: game more as a down grade on the Rams more

482
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 1: than an upgrade on the Bucks. I think a lot

483
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 1: of people expected the Bucks to cover in that one.

484
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 1: Uh So, I guess we kept with what the line

485
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 1: would have been, which was five. So the value of

486
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 1: at least from the sharp guy's perspective, was what was

487
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 1: on Tampa Bay. They took five, they took four and

488
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 1: a half, they took four. We're down the three and

489
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 1: a half on the game, and they're taken three and

490
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 1: a half too, So line is probably gonna settle at three.

491
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 1: At three, I think I have to like the Saints. Yeah,

492
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 1: I agree, I said what I say in the beginning,

493
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: I said, very wise guy said anything you said, remove

494
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 1: the half a point. If I get the hook, get

495
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 1: to get the hook. It's called the hook and familiar

496
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 1: all these all these betting terms. See, I gotta get

497
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 1: familiar with her. Why don't I send you a glossary

498
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 1: New York Jets traveling on the road to Philadelphi Eagles.

499
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 1: The Philadelphia Eagles are basically two touchdown favorites in this game.

500
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 1: Uh uh, I can totally see why absolutely. Um. And

501
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 1: look if the Eagles are another team that were ranked

502
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 1: very highly coming into the season, and we've been steadily

503
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 1: uh downgrading them. Um, you know at some point, uh,

504
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 1: you can't, you can't downgrade them anymore, and there has

505
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 1: to be a correction and uh and then as soon

506
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 1: as you see, you know, a decent performance from then

507
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,199
Speaker 1: you take that into account. And so you look at

508
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 1: that Thursday night game against the against the Packers, Um,

509
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 1: you know, impressive performance. And this this team can play

510
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 1: the way we thought they could play at the beginning

511
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 1: of the year. So going up against the Jets team

512
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 1: that basically has no quarterback, can't move the ball, or

513
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: just absolutely struggling on offense. Uh yeah, fourteen, I think

514
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 1: I think I think we'll probably uh see that line

515
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 1: go up. As a matter of fact, I think you

516
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: will see that line go up. Everything. I'm looking at

517
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: betting scentages, money percentages, uh that can be found in

518
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 1: the Action Network app. The free Action Network app downloaded

519
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 1: nearly nine thousand ratings on this app and it's a

520
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 1: five star app. That is not easy, my friends, nine

521
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 1: thousand ratings. I think you got a bad line in

522
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: this next game, Minnesota Vikings visiting the New York Giants.

523
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 1: This Giant's team, the Vikings are bad like on offense. Look,

524
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: I was all over the Vikings last week. I really

525
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 1: thought they were like on the upswing. But it turns

526
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 1: out Kirk Cousins. Uh, some people have said this not

527
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 1: a very good quarterback. Um, Daniel Jones might be a

528
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 1: good quarterback. And I think you're getting, like the Giants

529
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: in a good spot here, second week in row at home.

530
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 1: That line is already pretty big. Uh. It feels like

531
00:29:56,000 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 1: you didn't adjust it. Um, I think making a mistake.

532
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 1: You're making a mistake. Yeah, So yeah, we you know,

533
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: we we really like the Vikings last week, and we

534
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 1: opened them up a three point favorite against the Bears

535
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 1: and that line went down to one. So we probably

536
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 1: should have adjusted some off of that. We're not really

537
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 1: going to adjust the Giants even though that you know,

538
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 1: they played really well. Still still the jury is not out.

539
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 1: I mean we're still waiting on on Danny Danny Dimes,

540
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 1: and I mean we we just I mean, he played well,

541
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 1: but I think the Vikings. I can't just look at

542
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 1: one one bad performance and just and just downgrade them.

543
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: So we're gonna stick with the original number, they are

544
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 1: taking the Giants at plus five the ticket count, that

545
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: was pretty even, and I think the public will still

546
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 1: support the Vikings slightly more than the Giants. But you're

547
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 1: probably right in that the values on the Giants at home.

548
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 1: But I think I'm okay with the number. I don't

549
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 1: think I don't think we made a mistake on it. Um.

550
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: You know, if if if they come in on the

551
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 1: Giants pretty heavy by by game time and we close

552
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 1: it at three and we lose the game, then you'll

553
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 1: see a big adjustment, then you also know you made

554
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 1: a mistake. Then I will yeah, on the way after

555
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 1: the fact. But you said last week, you know, I

556
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 1: mentioned this last week, and I said, I didn't feel

557
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 1: good about the way that we moved a lot of

558
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 1: the lines and and some but sometimes it works out

559
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 1: in your favor. And then even when you do make mistakes,

560
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 1: sometimes you win those games. It works in your favor

561
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 1: sometimes and then vice versa. You can do everything right,

562
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 1: everything right, and feel really good and just have your

563
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 1: worst Sunday ever, So it goes both ways. Denver Broncos

564
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 1: visiting the Los Angeles Chargers. Charges are six and a

565
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,720
Speaker 1: half point favorites. What are you seeing? Uh, not a

566
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 1: whole lot on this one. Uh. Boy, you know, I

567
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: don't think Uh, I don't think the public really knows

568
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 1: what to do in this one. It's one of the

569
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 1: leaf bet games on the board. Uh. We're a little

570
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: heavy and parlays and everything on the Chargers at minus

571
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: six and a half. But almost no straight bets on

572
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 1: either side of this game, not from the wise guys,

573
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 1: not from public. Um. This actually might be a corner

574
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 1: TV game. Uh. Although there's only only a couple of

575
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 1: there's only about three afternoon games, so they gotta they

576
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 1: gotta bet on something, and I have no doubt they will.

577
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:38,959
Speaker 1: Like by the time this game kicks off, there will

578
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 1: be all those people who were losing the Cardinals Bengels

579
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 1: game will be chasing on the Chargers in the Broncos. Yeah,

580
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 1: so I would think that they're gonna probably bet the Chargers. Um,

581
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 1: even though they're not a real popular team to bet on.

582
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 1: I personally think that the Broncos are probably some value here.

583
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: I mean, they look at every game. They they've lost

584
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 1: every game almost the same way. Uh, they're all in four,

585
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 1: but they could have easily have won two or three

586
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 1: of those games there down the stretch came down to

587
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 1: like the last play of the game in all those

588
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 1: against Jacksonville last week against the Bears, uh, the only

589
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 1: the Raiders and the you know, the first week, I mean,

590
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 1: every one of those games was closed. So now you're

591
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 1: giving them six and a half. I think there's probably

592
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 1: a little value there. Here's a big marquee game, the

593
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers visiting the Dallas Cowboys. Cows a little

594
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 1: more than a field goal favorite three and a half. Ah,

595
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: such an interesting game. I think that. Look, the Cowboys

596
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 1: lost in prime time. The Packers lost in prime time.

597
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 1: I think the Cowboys played a much better team than

598
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 1: the Packers did, and their loss can be excused much

599
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 1: more easily than the Packers lost. I think so. In

600
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 1: the games that I've seen, the Cowboys have been a

601
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 1: much more complete team on the offensive side, the defensive side. Um,

602
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:14,440
Speaker 1: they've been much more impressive in all those games. The Packers,

603
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 1: even in their wins. Even in some of those wins

604
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 1: they got out of the gate early and then their

605
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: offense struggled for most of the second half. There was

606
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 1: something either they're the opposing coaches or making adjustments that

607
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: that the Packers just weren't able to overcome. But they

608
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 1: made a lot of games close that probably shouldn't have

609
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 1: been close. And then of course you look back and

610
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 1: you mentioned uh playing worst teams. And if you think

611
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 1: that the Vikings aren't as good as as uh, you

612
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 1: know they were supposed to be, you look at the

613
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 1: Packers games. They played the Bears, they played the Vikings,

614
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,879
Speaker 1: and they played the Eagles, teams that you probably thought

615
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 1: were a little better than they were. Looking back on it,

616
00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 1: maybe not as good. Um So, having said we opened

617
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 1: the game the Cowboys four, we did get a couple

618
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 1: of big bets on the Packers from some sharp guys.

619
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,839
Speaker 1: We went down to three and a half. At three

620
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 1: and a half, we're getting great. Two way, Uh, probably

621
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 1: a little bit heavier on the Packers in terms of

622
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 1: number of tickets on the game at Parlay's slightly heavy

623
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 1: on the Packers, but really good two ways. Don't forget

624
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:23,720
Speaker 1: download the free action network Gap. You'll get the total

625
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,680
Speaker 1: number of bets being made. You'll get the money percentages

626
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:29,280
Speaker 1: on each side, You'll get the ticket percentage on each side.

627
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,439
Speaker 1: It's super exciting. It gives you context everything scooches talking

628
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 1: about Uh, I'm gonna like the pack. I'm gonna like

629
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 1: the Cowboys in that game that I like the Cowboys

630
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 1: if it gets down to three, That's what I'm saying. Uh,

631
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 1: Indie visiting Kansas City on a Sunday night game clearly

632
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,399
Speaker 1: the game where NBC thought it was getting Andrew Luck

633
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: and Patrick Mahomes, not Jacobi Broussette and Patrick Mahomes. Uh So,

634
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:56,800
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, this game is ten and a half,

635
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 1: not like the three it probably would have been if

636
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 1: Andrew Luck was saying, are you seeing any action on

637
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,879
Speaker 1: this game yet? Yeah, all chiefs and and this one,

638
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 1: I will admit, I think we did make a mistake,

639
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 1: don we We opened this game nine and a half,

640
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 1: and right out of the gate they laid nine and

641
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: a half. They laid ten. And anytime the sharp guys

642
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: and the public are both on the same side and

643
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: the line moves more than a point, uh yeah, we've

644
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 1: clearly made a mistake. Because we typically like to put

645
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 1: ourselves in a position where we open it high enough

646
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 1: where at least the sharp guys will see value on

647
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,399
Speaker 1: the dog, knowing that the public is going to lay

648
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 1: the favorite no matter what. So in this case we

649
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 1: didn't go high enough. Uh, eleven points. Actually I just

650
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: moved it by the way I went. I went from

651
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,239
Speaker 1: ten and a half to eleven. As I'm seeing all

652
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: the best building up, it's just all one way in

653
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 1: this one and this Chief's game, this Chiefs team just

654
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: scares me every week. You know it's gonna and the

655
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 1: fact that it's the the late game on Sunday night,

656
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,879
Speaker 1: you know you have a bad parlay morning. Everything's gonna

657
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 1: be riding on this one. You uh, you said you

658
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 1: went from ten to eleven, ten and a half to eleven.

659
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 1: You turned it up to eleven. I did because it

660
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:10,880
Speaker 1: can go to eleven. Why does it have to stop

661
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 1: at ten or even ten and a half when it

662
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 1: can go to eleven? Well, it just did. Do you

663
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 1: know what I'm talking about? No, do you know what

664
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 1: movie I'm talking about? Spinal Tiger Swingers. Oh yeah, Jesus Christ,

665
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 1: Oh Scooch. You're the lead singer in the band. How

666
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 1: do you not recognize Turn It Up to eleven as

667
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 1: one of the most classic lines and one of the

668
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 1: best movies that was ever made. I know, there's no

669
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,759
Speaker 1: there's no excuse for that. I think you and your

670
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 1: bride tonight in your mansion in Las Vegas. Need to

671
00:37:56,680 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 1: uh open a bottle of wine and going your screening

672
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 1: room and watch spinal Tap. I'll do that absolutely, will

673
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 1: you really? Yeah? Courtyard way, we have a movie night

674
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: in the courtyard. You know, we have a big screen

675
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 1: projector and it's weather's term beautiful now, so we'll make

676
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 1: it a movie night. I don't like you you know

677
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:27,440
Speaker 1: what else? You know? You know what ESPN doesn't like.

678
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 1: ESPN doesn't like having Cleveland and San Francisco is a

679
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 1: Monday night game following up the Bengals in the Steelers. Yeah,

680
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: my god, what happened to Monday night football? People are

681
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 1: starting to find other things to do on Monday nights. Well,

682
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 1: I'll tell you, Like, you know what's really interesting, um

683
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 1: not to get inside baseball, but at the Action Network,

684
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 1: you know, we'll have massive Saturdays and Sundays and it

685
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 1: feels almost like people are burned out on Monday and

686
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:03,439
Speaker 1: like on Thursday night we at a significant more number,

687
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 1: that significantly high amount of traffic and subs and subscriptions

688
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 1: for our content than we do on Mondays. Yeah, you know,

689
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 1: I gotta be honest. I could sympathize with the players

690
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 1: and how the Thursday night game just kind of disrupts

691
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 1: all the rhythms you get into as a player. But

692
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 1: as a fan, I enjoyed the Thursday night games much

693
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:26,839
Speaker 1: more than the Monday night games. To me, it's like

694
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 1: the the opening the building up to the weekend, and

695
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 1: it's the thing that kicks off football weekend and you

696
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 1: have college and then you have pros on Sunday. And

697
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 1: I agree, by Sunday night, I know I'm burnt out

698
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 1: and it's almost to the point, oh Monday, it's all

699
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: like an afterthought. Yeah, I I actually I agree with you.

700
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:48,759
Speaker 1: I love the Thursday night game. I don't care how

701
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 1: bad it is. I'm just so excited to see the

702
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 1: football again. I love the Sunday night game, like I

703
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 1: like Sunday night game. To me is like ah, like

704
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 1: that's when sort of you're easy for me. It's I'm

705
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 1: easing out of a work zone and once the game

706
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,240
Speaker 1: kicks off and sort of all the work has been done.

707
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: Like I'm kidding myself, like I'm doing any of the work. Like,

708
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 1: but like the most certainly are you have to watching

709
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 1: those games? You're working those games? Yeah, Like the mental

710
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 1: it doesn't turn out the way it does right, the

711
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:22,880
Speaker 1: mental like the the mental anxiety of the games, like

712
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:27,399
Speaker 1: getting the Sunday night, like the kids are starting to chill,

713
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 1: the garbage is put out, like I just know it's

714
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 1: the end of the day, and like Monday, I'm not

715
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 1: even excited for these games. Yeah, yeah, no, it's And

716
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 1: then especially when you have the you know, the Browns

717
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,839
Speaker 1: and the forty Niners, that just adds to it and

718
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:46,800
Speaker 1: makes it hard to get to have interest. So, um,

719
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,359
Speaker 1: you know, we we went a little a little high

720
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 1: on on the three and three and a half, and

721
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:58,879
Speaker 1: they no action on it whatsoever. I think accounts dead

722
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 1: even on it. Um. I would expect everyone to come

723
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 1: in on the Niners thinking that, you know, they had

724
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 1: the week off, and even though the Browns played pretty

725
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,440
Speaker 1: well this past week, uh, I don't think they're quite

726
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 1: believers in them yet to go on the road and

727
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 1: beat the Niners. And Niners have been a team that

728
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 1: the public has been riding these last few weeks going

729
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,280
Speaker 1: into their bye week, so we expect that to continue.

730
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 1: Guess what time it is? Scoot Roulette, Scoot Roulette. Here's

731
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 1: the music. I'm going to paraphrase another movie. Let's see

732
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 1: if you can get it. Are you ready? Okay, Okay,

733
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 1: go ahead. I picked the wrong week to win Scooch

734
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 1: Roulette Airplane. Yeah yeah, Well let's see. Let's see what

735
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 1: other forty year old movies we can reference to today.

736
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 1: But like there's there's there's no like games that jump

737
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,759
Speaker 1: off the board to me. None. For me, this would

738
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 1: be this is a hard one or a real tough one.

739
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:17,480
Speaker 1: You know I'm gonna do. I'm gonna defer to you

740
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:21,320
Speaker 1: my my choice, and winning is deferring to you. Okay,

741
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Houston Texas again. They burned me

742
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 1: last week, but I'm going with them against the Falcons

743
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 1: the minus four and a half. I gotta tell you

744
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 1: I was going to choose them too. Instead, I'm called

745
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 1: Carolina minus three and a half. Yeah that's that's not

746
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 1: bad either. Yeah, that's what I'm gonna do. Alright, you're

747
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:45,919
Speaker 1: on the Jackson Vote, You're on the Houston Texans, I'm

748
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:49,440
Speaker 1: on the Jacksonville. I'm on the Carolina Panthers. Up next.

749
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 1: Since Danni Ravella is not joining me this week, uh,

750
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter professional better, he and I are gonna have

751
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 1: to break down which games we are choosing for the

752
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 1: Westgate Super Contest. Scooci, thanks for coming to the podcast, Buddy.

753
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:07,839
Speaker 1: Thanks Chad touch Later all right, as promised, Professional Better,

754
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter is on the phone. He's gonna take me

755
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 1: on a journey through picking the five picks that we

756
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:17,279
Speaker 1: need to make to go undefeated in the Westgate Super Contest.

757
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 1: Here we go, and now a word from a wise

758
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:35,759
Speaker 1: guy with Simon Hunter. Simon Hunter, how you doing, buddy?

759
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:40,440
Speaker 1: How you doing? Chat man? Well, listen, we had a

760
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 1: tough week last week. We went two and three in

761
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:44,920
Speaker 1: the Super Contest. We're now twelve and eight. Team Action.

762
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 1: That's Darren and I. Darren is not with us today,

763
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,279
Speaker 1: and it is not because he was insistent that we

764
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 1: choose the Chiefs in the Patriots last week. Um, we

765
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 1: chose them. We chose the Texans. We went owing three

766
00:43:57,800 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 1: in the early games. We were all sweating out a

767
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 1: little bit. We had the Buccaneers a plus nine and

768
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 1: a half, which was one of my choices, and we

769
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:05,799
Speaker 1: had the Saints plus two and a half, which you

770
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 1: were all over like, convinced us to choose the Saints,

771
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 1: which I really appreciate because it saved us from going

772
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 1: one in four. Yeah, that was I think I might

773
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 1: have like five or six a year like that, where

774
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 1: it's kind of not one of those games where you

775
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 1: pick the NFL's fixed, but it's one of those where

776
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 1: I knew as soon as I saw the number and

777
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 1: made the bet that it was like, there's always a

778
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:29,719
Speaker 1: chance we're gonna lose a bet, but I felt the

779
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 1: odds of losing that. But we're very low comparative the

780
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 1: other games that we played. I mean, I had that

781
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 1: line at three with the Saints minus three, so like

782
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 1: I saw a lot of value there. So it's one

783
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:43,359
Speaker 1: of those where I kept taking the line and kept

784
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 1: taking the money line. But it was at halftime, I

785
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 1: think they were up nine to three and the rest

786
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:51,360
Speaker 1: were just calling everything for the Saints. So it's definitely

787
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 1: an easy no swept the end of the night compared

788
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:55,359
Speaker 1: to the rest of our day. That was a rough day.

789
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 1: That was a rough day. Like as a professional better

790
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:02,319
Speaker 1: you're some one who I imagine is always going to

791
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 1: play the underdogs or at least have models that find

792
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 1: value in the underdogs. And so this past weekend, like

793
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 1: and this season, really you've probably been nailing it. Yeah. Actually,

794
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 1: I'll tell you a real easy trick. A guy told

795
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 1: me right when I started out in the business, was

796
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:25,879
Speaker 1: that when you take a dog, say a unit bed

797
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 1: for use ten dollars, the way I like to do

798
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:30,839
Speaker 1: would like to put three units on the number. So

799
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 1: like we took the Buccaneers, so I took that plus

800
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 1: nine plus ten, and then I put one unit on

801
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 1: the money line. So that's like ten bucks to win

802
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:41,840
Speaker 1: thirty five dollars. So it sounds stupid, but if you

803
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:44,239
Speaker 1: do that over the long term, you make a way

804
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:47,360
Speaker 1: bigger profit than if you're just betting just the number,

805
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:49,440
Speaker 1: the plus nine and a half and not taking the

806
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 1: money on. You should always try to put at least

807
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 1: half the unit to a unit on the money line

808
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 1: if you really really like an underdog. But is there

809
00:45:56,560 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 1: a threshold that that is an incredible That might be

810
00:45:59,880 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 1: the smartest thing that's ever been said on this podcast

811
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:05,399
Speaker 1: and ten years of doing it, which is listen, it's

812
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 1: why you're here. I'm sorry it took a solo and

813
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 1: to find you. I'm sorry everybody else I took a solo. Funny,

814
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:16,320
Speaker 1: but um, definitely they're like, um, there's always an example

815
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:19,360
Speaker 1: to it. Like if I'm just playing a number, like

816
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 1: like you said last week, if anyone's coming out there

817
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:25,880
Speaker 1: and saying they played all ten underdogs, um, that's not

818
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 1: a person that's winning every week because that's not a

819
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 1: good system. You shouldn't every week plan every underdog. Um.

820
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,919
Speaker 1: So I didn't do good, but I merely did way

821
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 1: better because I'm taking these underdogs. Um. And then I'm

822
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 1: hitting the money line as well. So you know, if

823
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 1: I have a negative day to say I lose whatever,

824
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:44,720
Speaker 1: I go seven for nine. If I hit the Saints

825
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:47,400
Speaker 1: money line, the Bucks money line, I'm up on the day.

826
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 1: So it's it's definitely one of those things as a shark,

827
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 1: it's like an easy little trick that even when you're

828
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 1: having a down day you're not reading everything right, you're

829
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: still gonna come out of the profit if you are

830
00:46:57,160 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 1: hitting on these dogs money long think this year has

831
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 1: been really big for these road dogs. I think it's

832
00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 1: about the hit back to the memes. Well it may

833
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 1: and like what what you just described that was so interesting,

834
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 1: So at the Action Network and everyone should go download

835
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 1: the app. Um, we've got some really smart baseball and

836
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 1: hockey betters. And Mike Leeboff who runs our hockey and

837
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:23,440
Speaker 1: baseball coverage, Sons Rillo, who writes about hockey and baseball.

838
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 1: You know, they bet so many underdogs. They bet so many,

839
00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 1: um like money line underdogs in those sports. You know,

840
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 1: Mike Leeboff, the first bet he made of the hockey

841
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: season Ottawa plus two thirty seven. And so you can

842
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 1: follow up, you can follow everything he does in the

843
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 1: app and you'll see, like for hockey, he's got a

844
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:49,440
Speaker 1: losing record overall, but his units are so high because

845
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 1: he's winning with big underdogs every night. I mean people

846
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 1: do the same with baseball. Like I know, plenty of

847
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 1: really really smart, sharp guys. At the end of the year,

848
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 1: they're gonna be a losing record, they might be up

849
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 1: fifty to sixty units on taking these you know, these

850
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 1: Orioles plus three d these crazy dogs. Over time, even

851
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 1: when you're losing, you build up a bigger bank all.

852
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 1: I mean, that's how Sharpe's DoD You're just taking favorites

853
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 1: all the time. Obviously you're never going to make a profit.

854
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 1: So you do need to mix in dogs and dog

855
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 1: money lines and football because every week you have to

856
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 1: kind of forget. We don't forget what you saw last week,

857
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:28,439
Speaker 1: but it is every every week any team can really want.

858
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 1: It's so great about football. It's it's crazy, it's so

859
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:34,320
Speaker 1: much fun. That's why Sundays are the best day of

860
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 1: the week. They're just amazing. Let me take you through

861
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 1: some ideas I have. And now that I'm not you know,

862
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:42,840
Speaker 1: tangled up the picks for this week or not. He

863
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 1: never sent me anything. I said, dude, just send me

864
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:46,399
Speaker 1: your picks. He never sent me anything. So it's all

865
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 1: on me. It's too busy arguing on Twitter problem. It's

866
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:53,320
Speaker 1: too busy, like you know, tweeting about hard Seltzer and

867
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:57,360
Speaker 1: Baked Goods and and fighting with people about you know,

868
00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:01,239
Speaker 1: his picks on in the Action Network out Um. I

869
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 1: do have some very serious ideas though, and it uh

870
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 1: And I like a lot of chalk. I like a

871
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 1: lot of short chalks. I want you to talk to

872
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 1: me off the ledge, Okay, I'll do my best, buddy.

873
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 1: I like Seattle minus one against the Rams. Um. I

874
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:26,160
Speaker 1: love I love the idea of the like we like

875
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 1: we said last week the Rams and look right and

876
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:31,920
Speaker 1: we were talking about that and how coming into this

877
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 1: year it's a notorious thing with goll hangover that's a

878
00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:39,160
Speaker 1: real thing. Um, and golf has not looked right since

879
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:41,919
Speaker 1: he's gotten this money. And this this is a good

880
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:45,040
Speaker 1: get right game. But it's a Thursday night game. So

881
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 1: I don't know if I put it in in the

882
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 1: camp in our super contest. But I'm with you on

883
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:53,799
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. I actually do. I do like them here

884
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 1: in the sense that then prime time at home. I

885
00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:58,920
Speaker 1: don't know what the numbers are with the Seahawks, but

886
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 1: I can tell you I've won a lot on the

887
00:50:01,160 --> 00:50:04,680
Speaker 1: Seahawks in prime time at home. But we can just

888
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 1: put that on the side. We'll put it on the

889
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:09,919
Speaker 1: side for a second. I've wanted a mission to make.

890
00:50:10,080 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 1: I accidentally bet the Seahawks a plus two last week. Uh.

891
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:19,040
Speaker 1: I was I was going through the lines and uh

892
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 1: went too far down and went into week five and

893
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 1: accidentally made a bet. Uh terrible though, because honestly, if

894
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 1: if when you do look at when you do look

895
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:32,200
Speaker 1: aheads like that, someone like me, I'm always looking for middles.

896
00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:36,239
Speaker 1: So I know you did it by mistake. But people

897
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:40,240
Speaker 1: always ask why people always bet like future games, future weeks.

898
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 1: It's because they're always trying to find a little bit

899
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 1: of value. So a good one this week was I

900
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:47,400
Speaker 1: did the Cardinals and I think I got them at

901
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 1: five and a half against um since and now it's

902
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 1: down to three. So if that goes to two and

903
00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:54,360
Speaker 1: a half, I'll take since you and I hope for

904
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 1: that three middle. So that's another little trick that pros

905
00:50:57,120 --> 00:50:59,839
Speaker 1: due to try to make an easy book. By the way,

906
00:50:59,840 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 1: the Cardinals, if you want to jump ahead for a second,

907
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 1: that's another good idea you're giving your Like, man, you

908
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 1: are chock full of tips today. We should just make

909
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:13,479
Speaker 1: like we should separate this into its own podcast. Before

910
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 1: I before I left the office tonight, everyone was telling me, like, good,

911
00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:18,440
Speaker 1: look on your podcast. We only listen for charity. Now

912
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:22,440
Speaker 1: we don't even like it anymore. Um. The only thing

913
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:24,359
Speaker 1: they like about it is you. Honest to god, that's

914
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:27,880
Speaker 1: the only thing anyone in my office says, uh is

915
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:30,080
Speaker 1: nice about the podcast. Well, I hope the actually listen

916
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 1: to me and put the Bears. I'm like you and

917
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:33,439
Speaker 1: Chad I saw, I mean you and Darren. You both

918
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 1: like Minnesota. Even though I told you, guys, Kirk on

919
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:40,480
Speaker 1: the road against the Bears unbelievable. He's dreadful. He's just dreadful.

920
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 1: He's terrible man. All Right, here's another one. Um, I

921
00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 1: love the Texans again. I know it's like awful, but

922
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:54,480
Speaker 1: Carolina's defense is so good. Kyle Allen is clearly catching

923
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 1: lightning in a bottle. The Falcons stay. That was honestly

924
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:01,080
Speaker 1: more about the Shawan. He said himself after the game.

925
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:06,320
Speaker 1: He couldn't hit. He had open guys like Will Fuller. Um,

926
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:08,400
Speaker 1: he missed him on two long balls which should have

927
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:12,800
Speaker 1: put us up at bad minimum twelve twelve to eleven

928
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:15,360
Speaker 1: point lead. So we got a little bit unlucky with

929
00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:18,480
Speaker 1: that one. I do like this line. I'm seeing it,

930
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 1: um four and a half five. So it's kind of

931
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:23,719
Speaker 1: in that. You know that a little bit of a

932
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 1: Vegas dead zone. Atlanta did look like they completely gave

933
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 1: up last week at home. This is the kind of

934
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:36,240
Speaker 1: game that this is a bland off if they actually

935
00:52:36,280 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 1: like their head coach, this is a game where they

936
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:42,879
Speaker 1: show up. Um, so I probably will personally be betting

937
00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:45,680
Speaker 1: on Atlanta, but I like, I like your heads that

938
00:52:45,800 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 1: with Houston here, Um, you might be able to find

939
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:53,759
Speaker 1: it easier short favorite. Well, I'm putting a question mark

940
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 1: on the Texas that minus five, right, now, uh I,

941
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 1: I I really like Carolina minus three and a half

942
00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 1: against the Jacks. Yeah, let's say, um, that's a good

943
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:17,759
Speaker 1: line last week. Uh, I definitely should have went with

944
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 1: you on the Jack. That just made me nervous. With

945
00:53:19,719 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 1: Denver at home, Um, they're obviously always completely ruined that team,

946
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 1: or maybe it's gonna work out. They're gonna get the

947
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:30,000
Speaker 1: number one pick. But with Carolina here this week with

948
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:34,319
Speaker 1: the Jacks, we're actually not back graded value. I only

949
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:37,000
Speaker 1: have this at minus for Carolina. It's only getting half

950
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:41,719
Speaker 1: a point. Um, but that's also with my system. I

951
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:47,520
Speaker 1: also have Ramsey playing. I'm assuming he's coming back this week. Um.

952
00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:52,160
Speaker 1: If he doesn't play, though, I would, I would, I

953
00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 1: would take through that Panthers game because that's a nice

954
00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:57,239
Speaker 1: little um left down spot for the Jacks going from

955
00:53:57,239 --> 00:54:01,120
Speaker 1: West coast back to east. All Right, all right, I'm

956
00:54:01,160 --> 00:54:04,319
Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna put a pin in that right now.

957
00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:08,279
Speaker 1: I'm going to keep an eye on it. You how

958
00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:10,520
Speaker 1: you feeling about our colts bouncing back this week in

959
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:13,879
Speaker 1: prime time? Well, clearly you got an opinion, So why

960
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 1: don't you tell me about it? I like I like uh.

961
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:22,200
Speaker 1: As the season goes along, you can find a lot

962
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:26,280
Speaker 1: of really good value in these Sunday night games because

963
00:54:26,560 --> 00:54:30,280
Speaker 1: Vegas over the years, they've gotten really smart with realizing

964
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:34,279
Speaker 1: that almost everybody that comes in the Joe public, they

965
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:37,160
Speaker 1: just all they care about is winning money and watching

966
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 1: the game they're winning money on, so a lot of

967
00:54:39,239 --> 00:54:42,959
Speaker 1: their parleys and teasers always get tied the Sunday night game.

968
00:54:43,880 --> 00:54:47,160
Speaker 1: So most Sunday nights, like we did UM last week

969
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:50,799
Speaker 1: with the Saints, you're getting good value because Vegas gonna

970
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:53,440
Speaker 1: kick these lines up. So I had this against the

971
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:57,279
Speaker 1: Chiefs and Colts. At the Colts minus seven, I mean

972
00:54:57,320 --> 00:55:00,959
Speaker 1: the Chief's minus seven, and I'm seeing plus ten, plus

973
00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:03,040
Speaker 1: ten a half plus eleven for the Colts, which means

974
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:06,040
Speaker 1: we're getting plus three and a half of value. The

975
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:08,080
Speaker 1: only thing that makes me nervous that t Y doesn't play.

976
00:55:08,680 --> 00:55:11,200
Speaker 1: The Colts looked like a completely different team without t Y.

977
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:15,640
Speaker 1: Last week, UM basically opened it something really simple. They

978
00:55:15,640 --> 00:55:17,759
Speaker 1: were just bringing down the safety because they didn't need

979
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:19,000
Speaker 1: to have them, and they didn't need to have a

980
00:55:19,040 --> 00:55:22,240
Speaker 1: safety back just because Holding wasn't playing and Matt couldn't

981
00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 1: get anything go on the run. It was kind of

982
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:27,200
Speaker 1: a lomber set. He did all right statistically, but they

983
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:30,359
Speaker 1: could never get a stop on defense. So I get

984
00:55:30,360 --> 00:55:33,160
Speaker 1: why this line is so big because people so just

985
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 1: aw the Colts defense get absolutely destroyed by the Chiefs. Um,

986
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:39,560
Speaker 1: but I like this is I mean Oakland, but I

987
00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:41,480
Speaker 1: like this is a bounce back spot for the Colts

988
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:43,919
Speaker 1: on the road plus town. All right, So that's another

989
00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:45,600
Speaker 1: one we're gonna keep an eye on for when the

990
00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:48,359
Speaker 1: lines come out. The lines for these come out tomorrow night,

991
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:51,960
Speaker 1: and I need we need to play. That's a big one. Yeah,

992
00:55:52,080 --> 00:55:55,279
Speaker 1: need it. I need t Y for the Jags. We

993
00:55:55,680 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 1: need no Jalen Um. All right, what do you think

994
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:07,839
Speaker 1: right now of Arizona plus three and a half against Cincinnati.

995
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:15,600
Speaker 1: It's it's one of those games I probably would avoid

996
00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:18,640
Speaker 1: for the Super Contest because these are these are both

997
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:22,799
Speaker 1: two teams that are terrible. Um, you're right, I don't

998
00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:24,680
Speaker 1: even know what I mentioned it. I'm disgusted that I

999
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:26,759
Speaker 1: even said it. I know, but I get what you're

1000
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:28,959
Speaker 1: thinking here because we just saw since he looks so bad,

1001
00:56:29,520 --> 00:56:32,480
Speaker 1: but this is truly there is no edge in this game.

1002
00:56:32,520 --> 00:56:36,960
Speaker 1: I have this game at three minus three for since Um,

1003
00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:40,120
Speaker 1: the public is all over Arizona. So the sharp I'm

1004
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 1: gonna be on since but that's like, no, I'm not

1005
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:46,080
Speaker 1: happy to bet on Andy Dulton. You don't feel good

1006
00:56:46,120 --> 00:56:51,440
Speaker 1: about making that bet. Why am I throwing games out

1007
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 1: at you? Give me the games pigt edges and I'm

1008
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:58,200
Speaker 1: just gonna bet those. Well, I'm not always gonna right man. Man.

1009
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:00,200
Speaker 1: That's why I like seeing for you and uh with

1010
00:57:00,320 --> 00:57:02,840
Speaker 1: you and Dan's heads are at because this week is

1011
00:57:02,880 --> 00:57:04,960
Speaker 1: a nice week where I do think it's a get

1012
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:10,719
Speaker 1: right week where, um, these these home teams have had

1013
00:57:10,760 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 1: a bit of a weird run where yor not, they're

1014
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:15,520
Speaker 1: not covering, they're not I mean sometimes they winning, but

1015
00:57:15,520 --> 00:57:19,280
Speaker 1: they're not really looking good and so a lot of

1016
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:22,840
Speaker 1: people this week, um, they're gonna be taking these road teams.

1017
00:57:23,840 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 1: So like a game that stands out where everyone's gonna

1018
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:30,720
Speaker 1: be liking a team and not like the team is. Um,

1019
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:34,760
Speaker 1: I hate I hate to do it because it's such

1020
00:57:35,080 --> 00:57:37,560
Speaker 1: a weird spot, but I do like the Cowboys were

1021
00:57:37,560 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 1: spring back, so do I I love it. I don't

1022
00:57:40,080 --> 00:57:42,800
Speaker 1: love the number, but I like that spot right because

1023
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:45,160
Speaker 1: I'm seeing minus three and a half or my hus three.

1024
00:57:45,320 --> 00:57:50,040
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not a great number, Um, but this

1025
00:57:50,080 --> 00:57:53,840
Speaker 1: is this is really a classic Cowboys get right at

1026
00:57:53,880 --> 00:57:57,160
Speaker 1: home at night, like after getting kind of embarrassing on Sunday,

1027
00:57:57,200 --> 00:58:00,680
Speaker 1: like they played by far their worst game of the year.

1028
00:58:01,720 --> 00:58:05,640
Speaker 1: So it's a nice spot for the Cowboys here, agree,

1029
00:58:05,880 --> 00:58:12,400
Speaker 1: I'm adding into the list, um. And then for another

1030
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:18,960
Speaker 1: I mean, there's two dogs that are like really really

1031
00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:22,400
Speaker 1: look good. But the thing with the Jets of Sam

1032
00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:25,640
Speaker 1: Donald not playing, there's zero chance I'd take the Jets.

1033
00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:29,440
Speaker 1: But that's that's a big public dog this week, Like

1034
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:33,360
Speaker 1: we've been hitting on these public dogs. So the Jets,

1035
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:36,080
Speaker 1: it depends on what you're looking at. They're getting plus

1036
00:58:36,120 --> 00:58:40,720
Speaker 1: thirteen right now, um at the Eagles, So that's a

1037
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 1: really good road dog. And then another really good road

1038
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:48,320
Speaker 1: dog is Denver, who's catching six divisional game against the Chargers,

1039
00:58:48,360 --> 00:58:51,080
Speaker 1: where this isn't just like the Falcon this kind of

1040
00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:54,160
Speaker 1: game where either the Broncos are gonna show up for

1041
00:58:54,240 --> 00:58:56,720
Speaker 1: their coach and play a really hard game and maybe

1042
00:58:56,800 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 1: lose by a field goal the end with a chance

1043
00:58:58,440 --> 00:59:01,720
Speaker 1: of winning, for are gonna lose by a ton of

1044
00:59:01,760 --> 00:59:03,760
Speaker 1: points in their coach, they're gonna be fired the next day.

1045
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 1: Like the Broncos I like, I like I like these.

1046
00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:12,000
Speaker 1: I like these two dog spots of the Jets and

1047
00:59:12,040 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 1: the Broncos. I don't know which one you'd rather take.

1048
00:59:14,560 --> 00:59:17,480
Speaker 1: Oh my god, this isn't no brand. You mean the

1049
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:20,000
Speaker 1: team the team that has no quarterback or the team

1050
00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:22,720
Speaker 1: that has Joe Flacco as a quarterback. You've given me.

1051
00:59:23,760 --> 00:59:27,880
Speaker 1: It's like it's like Sophie's choice here. Yeah, And it's

1052
00:59:27,920 --> 00:59:30,000
Speaker 1: definitely a nice spot because if you look on pay

1053
00:59:30,080 --> 00:59:33,280
Speaker 1: for the Chargers, they are really banged up. I mean

1054
00:59:33,360 --> 00:59:37,000
Speaker 1: Miami Rosen looked like Chosen Rosen against him in the

1055
00:59:37,000 --> 00:59:39,880
Speaker 1: first half. He was diceing them up, up and down

1056
00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:43,080
Speaker 1: the field. So I like that number of the Broncos

1057
00:59:43,080 --> 00:59:45,520
Speaker 1: against the Chargers. I like that number a lot more.

1058
00:59:46,200 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 1: I like that. Yep, yep. All right, So these are

1059
00:59:49,120 --> 00:59:51,280
Speaker 1: my games right now. These are what I'm thinking about.

1060
00:59:52,320 --> 00:59:55,280
Speaker 1: Texas minus five, Panthers minus three and a half, Cults

1061
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:57,600
Speaker 1: plus ten and a half, Cowboys minus three and a half,

1062
00:59:58,120 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 1: Denver plus six, And then we should we should try

1063
01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:04,640
Speaker 1: to think of one or two more that we can

1064
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 1: maybe switching, because I did like the Giants last week. Um,

1065
01:00:08,720 --> 01:00:10,320
Speaker 1: it was too bad that like we ended up in

1066
01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 1: Houston but um, I like that we had that reserve

1067
01:00:14,040 --> 01:00:18,440
Speaker 1: just in case for the lines moving. Um, what are

1068
01:00:18,440 --> 01:00:20,840
Speaker 1: you thinking? Are you gonna do another another favorite? You

1069
01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:27,600
Speaker 1: when you're going to do another dog? I want to

1070
01:00:27,640 --> 01:00:31,880
Speaker 1: do whatever the best choices, man. I wish it was

1071
01:00:31,920 --> 01:00:38,040
Speaker 1: that easy, my man. Um, what about the Giants? Another

1072
01:00:38,200 --> 01:00:41,600
Speaker 1: glaring short home favorite I like, I mean, it's it's

1073
01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:44,760
Speaker 1: got to be the Saints like the Bucks. I get it,

1074
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:49,000
Speaker 1: like the Bucks look like world beaters, but this is

1075
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:53,800
Speaker 1: such a classic. You know, they scored fifty five, fifty

1076
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:56,040
Speaker 1: four points in the road last week. They come in

1077
01:00:56,080 --> 01:00:59,560
Speaker 1: the Saints this week and they maybe score ten. It's

1078
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:03,560
Speaker 1: I feel like this is Jamis Winston's career and microcos him.

1079
01:01:03,840 --> 01:01:07,840
Speaker 1: So I had this that, um, Saints minus six and

1080
01:01:07,920 --> 01:01:11,520
Speaker 1: the lines three? Well that's it. Look, I don't know

1081
01:01:11,560 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 1: what I'm talking about, because earlier in the podcast I

1082
01:01:13,760 --> 01:01:16,280
Speaker 1: was talking to Scuge and saying how hard I was having,

1083
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:17,680
Speaker 1: what a hard time I was having with this, and

1084
01:01:17,720 --> 01:01:20,720
Speaker 1: that I love the Bucks potentially, but you are smarter

1085
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:23,080
Speaker 1: than me, and you have better logic, and you've also

1086
01:01:23,160 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 1: made a line. So I will go against everything I've

1087
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:28,480
Speaker 1: said and put the Saints on this list. In fact,

1088
01:01:29,120 --> 01:01:32,120
Speaker 1: I might like them. They are they are a great

1089
01:01:32,360 --> 01:01:36,240
Speaker 1: number one, a great number one option. Yeah, it's just

1090
01:01:36,280 --> 01:01:39,440
Speaker 1: a really really nice spot for the Saints because they

1091
01:01:40,080 --> 01:01:42,960
Speaker 1: they look absolutely terrible on that gaming use up. I mean,

1092
01:01:43,000 --> 01:01:46,160
Speaker 1: obviously we got the win airthing like that, but I

1093
01:01:46,200 --> 01:01:47,680
Speaker 1: think it was the first time they've ever had a

1094
01:01:47,720 --> 01:01:50,680
Speaker 1: win since the seventies where they kicked four field goals

1095
01:01:50,680 --> 01:01:53,200
Speaker 1: on one. Yeah. So it's it's a nice thing where

1096
01:01:53,200 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 1: people are still kind of down in New Orleans and

1097
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:57,560
Speaker 1: they're gonna come in real heavy on the buckshefa the

1098
01:01:57,560 --> 01:02:00,840
Speaker 1: books offense looks like world beaters, you right, I totally

1099
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:04,760
Speaker 1: misplayed that, I was I played that like an amateur. Um.

1100
01:02:05,560 --> 01:02:07,760
Speaker 1: I played that like someone who watched the primetime game

1101
01:02:07,800 --> 01:02:09,960
Speaker 1: and was excited they got the Saints to win, not

1102
01:02:10,680 --> 01:02:12,520
Speaker 1: looking at their box scoring and thinking about how they

1103
01:02:12,560 --> 01:02:16,400
Speaker 1: really played. Yeah, the Saints are just really playing like

1104
01:02:16,440 --> 01:02:21,200
Speaker 1: a team right now. Like a Teddy Bridgewater did not

1105
01:02:21,480 --> 01:02:23,160
Speaker 1: play good at all. I mean, that was a big

1106
01:02:23,200 --> 01:02:26,000
Speaker 1: stage for him and going up against the top five defense,

1107
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:28,640
Speaker 1: but he is the kind of guy where he does

1108
01:02:28,760 --> 01:02:30,600
Speaker 1: enough that he's not gonna lose us the game. Where

1109
01:02:31,000 --> 01:02:34,680
Speaker 1: when you're back in the Buccaneers. Every time Winston drops back,

1110
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:38,640
Speaker 1: it could be a pick six. So it's funny the

1111
01:02:38,640 --> 01:02:40,800
Speaker 1: public is coming in so heavy on the books. It's

1112
01:02:40,840 --> 01:02:45,200
Speaker 1: if they've forgotten everything that's happened in the past. Alright, Simon,

1113
01:02:46,040 --> 01:02:48,040
Speaker 1: I think we got I think we got six games

1114
01:02:48,040 --> 01:02:50,480
Speaker 1: that we can choose five from. Right now, I'm adding

1115
01:02:50,480 --> 01:02:52,240
Speaker 1: the Saints minus three and a half to the list,

1116
01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:55,400
Speaker 1: and then I will tweet out where we end up.

1117
01:02:55,440 --> 01:02:56,960
Speaker 1: I'm sure I'm going to have to debate this with

1118
01:02:57,040 --> 01:03:00,840
Speaker 1: Darren and like you know, talk, We'll talk about it

1119
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:03,240
Speaker 1: and we'll text about it, because I think everything will

1120
01:03:03,240 --> 01:03:07,200
Speaker 1: come out tomorrow night. So we're definitely not not prushing here.

1121
01:03:07,200 --> 01:03:09,280
Speaker 1: I mean I like that we have six so we

1122
01:03:09,360 --> 01:03:12,880
Speaker 1: can switch one out here in case of injury. Simon,

1123
01:03:12,920 --> 01:03:17,080
Speaker 1: you've delivered quite possibly the greatest inside sports betting information

1124
01:03:17,080 --> 01:03:20,520
Speaker 1: that's ever been had in any podcast about sports betting. Ever,

1125
01:03:21,720 --> 01:03:24,080
Speaker 1: we'll all downhill from here, my friend, Well, you did

1126
01:03:24,080 --> 01:03:27,720
Speaker 1: a nice job. If all, if listen, if early October

1127
01:03:27,720 --> 01:03:32,880
Speaker 1: of two thousand nineteen can be your zenith, so be it.

1128
01:03:33,080 --> 01:03:36,240
Speaker 1: I'm glad it was with us. No, man, it's it's

1129
01:03:36,280 --> 01:03:38,920
Speaker 1: only gonna keep getting better. Here, I really want to

1130
01:03:38,920 --> 01:03:40,880
Speaker 1: talk to you guys off the Patriots, but I needed

1131
01:03:41,480 --> 01:03:44,800
Speaker 1: they're kind of get a lesson and gambling here that

1132
01:03:45,160 --> 01:03:48,680
Speaker 1: every week. You just can't blindly just say, yeah, the favorite,

1133
01:03:48,680 --> 01:03:50,600
Speaker 1: why wouldn't they beat the crap by of this team.

1134
01:03:50,640 --> 01:03:53,240
Speaker 1: So it's definitely one of those things that the weear

1135
01:03:53,320 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 1: goes on, you'll kind of see that there's little things

1136
01:03:55,520 --> 01:03:58,400
Speaker 1: you noticed that it's just nice spots like even when

1137
01:03:58,400 --> 01:04:01,080
Speaker 1: all my numbers say it's the other way, Um, I

1138
01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:03,880
Speaker 1: don't always always listen to it that you always have

1139
01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:06,480
Speaker 1: to put a human element into it. So definitely, as

1140
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:09,120
Speaker 1: we go alonger, we'll definitely get sharper and sharper lines.

1141
01:04:09,920 --> 01:04:13,080
Speaker 1: Try not to use my money to teach dannravel lessons.

1142
01:04:13,480 --> 01:04:16,440
Speaker 1: That's that's that's my lesson for you. I tried to

1143
01:04:16,480 --> 01:04:17,720
Speaker 1: talk to you guys that, but I just don't want

1144
01:04:17,720 --> 01:04:19,480
Speaker 1: to be too mean of a guy. I like you guys.

1145
01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:21,240
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to be too mean. You know. I'd

1146
01:04:21,320 --> 01:04:23,280
Speaker 1: rather you be mean and I make one five million

1147
01:04:23,320 --> 01:04:26,800
Speaker 1: dollars alright, brother from here on out? All right, then, man,

1148
01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:29,680
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you next week. Thank you, sir, all right, thanks,

1149
01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:33,320
Speaker 1: thank you? All right, this has been the favorites from

1150
01:04:33,320 --> 01:04:36,320
Speaker 1: the Action Network. I'm Chad Millman. Please follow me at

1151
01:04:36,400 --> 01:04:39,880
Speaker 1: Chad Millman on Twitter at Action Network HQ. Listen to

1152
01:04:39,880 --> 01:04:45,120
Speaker 1: the podcast from Apple, downloaded from Radio dot Com, and

1153
01:04:45,200 --> 01:04:47,640
Speaker 1: search the favorites. I want to thank Simon Hunter for

1154
01:04:47,680 --> 01:04:50,440
Speaker 1: coming on giving us the greatest lessons in sports betting

1155
01:04:50,440 --> 01:04:54,600
Speaker 1: that we've ever had. Until next week, I love you.