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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by Bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am live from my Tommy John Home studio. And

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Speaker 1: in his Tommy John Home studio is my co host,

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Speaker 1: my companion, MI cam padre My BFF Professional Better Simon

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Speaker 1: Hunter ll s im.

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Speaker 2: In Always ready, Chad, how are we doing? Brother?

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Speaker 1: Guess what we are going to be talking about? NFL

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Speaker 1: Week four best bets. This is where Simon and I

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Speaker 1: narrow down are five picks in the Favorites Podcast one

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest presented by bet

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Speaker 1: three six five sign up now Favorites Dot Action Network.

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Speaker 1: You can still win the one thousand dollars weekly prize

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Speaker 1: if you win best record for the week. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: get into the Foxhole. We're gonna give out our undefeated

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Speaker 1: Tommy John Big Balls bet of the Week. No, I

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Speaker 1: did not just mush it. We're gonna discuss Signon's biggest bets.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna do our boosted money line underdog parlay, which

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Speaker 1: you will be able to bet at bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna do the underdog round robin. So much more.

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Speaker 1: Bets are rolling in, lines are moving, Decisions need to

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Speaker 1: be made. As our old friend and volume podcast boss

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Speaker 1: Colin Coward likes to say, there's a sea of money

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Speaker 1: out there. As a reminder, The Favorites Podcast is presented

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Speaker 1: by Bet three six five. New Bet three six five

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Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. A bet

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Speaker 1: three six ' five must be twenty one or older

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Speaker 1: and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply all

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Speaker 1: right as always Thursdays during the season. We'd like to

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Speaker 1: hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation.

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Speaker 1: They all like to weigh in. They all call that's

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Speaker 1: how influential we are. Lines are move moving based on

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Speaker 1: our conversations. The pros feel compelled to tell us what

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Speaker 1: they think. Simon, what do you got for Sharp?

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Speaker 2: Call? Hello, who's there?

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Speaker 3: I'm talking Rain Rain telephone range?

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Speaker 1: Somebody say it baby one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: They dropped on a couple of our bets, Chad.

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Speaker 3: They moved Atlanta from one and a half of the

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Speaker 3: two and a half, and they moved the Colts down

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Speaker 3: from two to one and a half, which no shock here.

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Speaker 2: That's the professional side. Side.

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Speaker 3: We love talking about it. Side I was unsure about that.

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Speaker 3: I think you had more confidence in was the Jaguars.

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Speaker 3: I said, I'd bet if I got the seven. They

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Speaker 3: did get to seven. I did bet it. It's now

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Speaker 3: six and a half down to six. Of most books.

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Speaker 3: That's easily one of the more professional sides this week, right,

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Speaker 3: That's that's the side they're all taken where the general public,

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Speaker 3: they're all gonna be all over Houston, especially in their cheessers.

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Speaker 3: So we've seen that number now come back down to six.

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Speaker 3: Though before we got on here, I do.

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Speaker 1: Think that's a number. Come Sunday, that number on skyrocket again.

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Speaker 1: We're seeing it every single week, like these numbers are

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Speaker 1: moving big on Sundays as more and more money is

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Speaker 1: coming in.

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Speaker 3: I'm not on the side, but it's the side that

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Speaker 3: you liked. Like I bet it earlier in the week.

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Speaker 3: I bet the Bears a minus one. The professionals do

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Speaker 3: love the Bears. I just I haven't really fully got

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Speaker 3: there now that it's up to three. Another one obviously,

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Speaker 3: we love Panthers plus four. A lot of guys talking

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Speaker 3: about that one with Atlanta as well. I didn't think

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Speaker 3: i'd get you there. It was Vegas, they were minus one.

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Speaker 3: They're now minus and minus two. Basically, I every probably

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Speaker 3: talked to head into that matchup has the same view

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Speaker 3: of it. It's just a good spot to keep fading.

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Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson. You know again we talked about that. We

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Speaker 3: knew coming into this, so this is gonna be pros

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Speaker 3: Verus shows. The public loves the bills. They're right now

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Speaker 3: in the action happen. I believe they're eighty percent of

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Speaker 3: the bets, eighty percent of the money is on the bills,

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Speaker 3: So professionals are the reason this number to stay where it's at.

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Speaker 3: It's the reason has not dipped down to two or

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Speaker 3: one and a half. It's it's pretty obvious what's either're on.

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Speaker 2: So that's that's the number. I did bet.

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Speaker 3: But now I'm hoping, because there's so much money right

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Speaker 3: now in the bills, that this number does eventually come down.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, Ravens minus two and a half feels like

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Speaker 3: that's gonna have to be the play chat.

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Speaker 1: I know, I know, I'm actually not afraid of it.

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Speaker 1: I feel pretty good about it, to be honest, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna we're gonna dig into that game. Quick note for

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Speaker 1: Thursday night for those of you who do hear this

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Speaker 1: on Thursday, reminder, we played the Cowboys. We played it

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Speaker 1: at five and a half. That's when we talked about it.

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Speaker 1: Last Sunday. The line got down to four, back up

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Speaker 1: to four and a half, then five, then five and

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Speaker 1: a half. Now it's at six in a lot of places,

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Speaker 1: probably because we talked about it and all the Wise

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Speaker 1: Guys who have since played it. But look, the consensus

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Speaker 1: wise guy power rating on this Thursday game is in

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Speaker 1: six to seven. So it's finally getting to that spot,

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Speaker 1: all right. First game up Philadelphia Tampa Bay plus two

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Speaker 1: and a half. Strictly from a spread point of view,

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Speaker 1: the Bucks are definitely the right side, as you have

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Speaker 1: pointed out, the line touch three for a second before

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Speaker 1: getting back down to two and a half. But to me,

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Speaker 1: and this is where we have to have the conversation

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Speaker 1: that all assumes somewhat full strength on both sides and

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Speaker 1: instead we've got aj Brown, DeVante Smith, Lane Johnson. None

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Speaker 1: of them even participated in the Wednesday walkthrough Videvea Anchwine, Winfield,

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Speaker 1: Luke Getticky all questionable or out for the Bucks. So

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Speaker 1: who are we betting on in this game?

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Speaker 3: No, it is. It's bad, but I think Evan had

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Speaker 3: some great trends about it as well. This Eagles team,

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Speaker 3: they're just a different team on the road, especially Jalen Hurts,

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Speaker 3: Like historically I looked to back them at home. Last

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Speaker 3: week was just a perfect storm of you know, the

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Speaker 3: price had gotten insane. I think the line had moved

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Speaker 3: six points or seven points from the Saints to being

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Speaker 3: a dog, from being a dog always to being a favorite.

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Speaker 2: So it was like, okay, that.

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Speaker 3: Was a spot we want to take the Eagles here.

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Speaker 3: It just feels like they're a little overrated, right. You

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Speaker 3: just gave out all their injuries. This isn't the same offense.

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Speaker 3: And you know, as much as I like to knock

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Speaker 3: Dennis Allen, he is a good defensive mind.

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Speaker 2: He kind of put it on there.

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Speaker 3: For that Eagles team in the sense that the Eagles

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Speaker 3: do what they do right. They got a ton of yards,

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Speaker 3: but they failed a bunch of times once they got

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Speaker 3: into the red zone. I see kind of the same

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Speaker 3: thing here with Todd Bowles, Like he just the way

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Speaker 3: he went runs his defense, he's gonna he's gonna get

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Speaker 3: hurts eventually, Like he's gonna set up a trap and

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Speaker 3: if it hurts, will eventually.

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Speaker 2: Fall into it.

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Speaker 3: And you know, the my big question, which I think

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Speaker 3: you talked about a little bit, is just this Bucks

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Speaker 3: team offensively. If this does all of a sudden turn

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Speaker 3: into a shootout, the Bucks just I feel like they

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Speaker 3: can't keep up.

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Speaker 2: And that's hesitation for me.

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Speaker 3: But you know, they talked this week, they said Bucker revenue,

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Speaker 3: you know, to me, sure, but their number of running

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Speaker 3: backs and to get more touches, that's a great way

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Speaker 3: to attack this Eagles team, right, get the get their

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Speaker 3: front tired, and that's really we see them struggle. So

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Speaker 3: there's a couple of things I do like about this,

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Speaker 3: But I think you're right where it's like, if it's

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Speaker 3: two and a half, I really like it. If it's

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Speaker 3: one and a half in our contest, obviously I wouldn't

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Speaker 3: take that. I think the value is when it's crossing

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Speaker 3: this key number of two. So for me, not only

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Speaker 3: do I like the match for this Bucks team, but

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Speaker 3: it's like the trends fading Hurts on the road has

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Speaker 3: been very profitable for me, So this is another spot

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Speaker 3: where I kind of want to fade him here on

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Speaker 3: the road. Especially the guy's leading the league in turnovers.

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Speaker 3: It's like, shouldn't we bet against that until he corrects it,

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Speaker 3: especially when he's no longer the dog, when he's the

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Speaker 3: favorite in these kind of spots. So yeah, it's really

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Speaker 3: what you talked about in the very beginning. It's about

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Speaker 3: playing the number. I make this closer to a pick.

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Speaker 3: It's two and a half. I'm gonna take that value

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Speaker 3: every time.

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Speaker 1: Look, Hurts has turnover problems, right, Yeah, one season might

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Speaker 1: be circumstances, bad offense, bad communication, heading into the quarter

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Speaker 1: season mark of another season. Then it's a thing. Then

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Speaker 1: it's like not reading things right, not holding onto the

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Speaker 1: ball carefully, not tucking it when you need to tuck it,

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Speaker 1: that all of a sudden becomes a trend, not just

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Speaker 1: an anomaly to me.

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Speaker 3: I think he said, though, you're just trying to do

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Speaker 3: too much.

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Speaker 2: That's his issue.

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Speaker 3: It's like when you start trying to do much, you

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Speaker 3: don't play well and you kind of make big mistakes.

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Speaker 2: I think sam can be said for Mahomes this year.

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Speaker 3: Mahomes has just been trying to do too much and

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Speaker 3: he's not how not looked like the QB were used to.

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Speaker 3: So he's in that same boat where it's just like,

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Speaker 3: you're right. If he doesn't correct these mistakes, you know,

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Speaker 3: there's not just a coaching change coming up. There's me

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Speaker 3: a total change of the offense where it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: we can't trust the ball in your hands. We're going

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Speaker 3: to take the ball out of your hands and give

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Speaker 3: it to aargably the best player on our team in

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Speaker 3: Saquon Barkley. So I'm with you on that One's it's

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Speaker 3: bad right now with him and what he's doing.

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Speaker 2: With the ball.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is so interesting. You know, I watched a

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Speaker 1: bunch of his press conference from this week where he's

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Speaker 1: talking about performance, and so many players when they talk,

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Speaker 1: they sound like automatons right, like they're trying to answer

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Speaker 1: so carefully. Patrick Mahomes didn't say anything revelatory when he

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Speaker 1: was speaking, but he has a way of speaking in

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Speaker 1: sort of his tone of voice and his rhythm and

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Speaker 1: his cadence that makes it sound like he's telling you

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Speaker 1: something natural and human that is revealing about a quarterback

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Speaker 1: he talked about forget about he hasn't been happy with

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Speaker 1: his performance, and not talking about stats, but where he's

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Speaker 1: putting the ball or where he's not putting the ball,

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Speaker 1: how he's finding people, how he's running the team, things

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Speaker 1: like that, all things that we are naturally seeing. But

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Speaker 1: the way he says it, I don't know if you

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Speaker 1: ever watched this or even sort of thought about this,

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Speaker 1: but he says it in a way that it's just

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Speaker 1: so natural and easy. And maybe this is because he's

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Speaker 1: had so many years of doing great. He has so

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Speaker 1: much confidence. He can say I'm not playing at my

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Speaker 1: best right now and not feel like he's going to

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Speaker 1: have to be defensive about it, but I find the

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Speaker 1: way he communicates to be fascinating.

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Speaker 3: No, he's playing bad and he's three and oh it's

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Speaker 3: absolutely terrifying as a.

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Speaker 2: Fan of any team in this league.

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Speaker 1: By the way, yeah, yeah, speaking of bad. My exac

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Speaker 1: decision this week is a game you just referred to

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Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears. I think we'll get him at two

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Speaker 1: and a half in the contest. They're now at three.

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Speaker 1: While those guys have been coming in on this team,

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Speaker 1: they love them. So you know, last night I was

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Speaker 1: I was in New York and I had dinner with

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Speaker 1: my buddy Matt. Everyone knows Matt Matt. I was explaining

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Speaker 1: to Matt, as an investor with me in our betting

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Speaker 1: opportunities this year, that I was going with the Bears

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Speaker 1: this week, and obviously like Matt and I were going

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Speaker 1: to Bears games together. In nineteen eighty five, his parents

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Speaker 1: have season tickets. We went to every home game for

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Speaker 1: the Bears. We went to every playoff game together. I

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Speaker 1: went instead of his sister. We have sweated the Bears.

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Speaker 1: He went with me to the Bears Super Bowl in

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Speaker 1: two thousand and six, like three weeks after his third

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Speaker 1: kid was born. He left home and went to that

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Speaker 1: Bear Super Bowl with me. Like, we have been through

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Speaker 1: wars with this team.

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Speaker 3: How many of you guys watched Ferris Beeler's day off together?

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, so you know talk about the talk

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Speaker 1: about my life story? Right, was literally shot in the

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Speaker 1: ravine at the house in the ravine across from me. Like,

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Speaker 1: it's crazy, right, it's Cam's dad's house.

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Speaker 3: I've always wondered that is that Is that actually near Chicago.

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Speaker 1: That's in Highland Park. Oh shit, that's that's the house

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Speaker 1: I'm talking about. It's like, right, it's like it's like

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Speaker 1: behind my house, the glass Well, I don't remember. I

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Speaker 1: haven't even lived there in a long time. But here's

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Speaker 1: my point. I went through all the reasons of why

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Speaker 1: I was betting the Bears, why we as investors were

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Speaker 1: investing in the Bears, why are we well he at

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Speaker 1: the end of it, he looked at me and said,

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Speaker 1: listen everything. He I'm like, the five minutes at the

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Speaker 1: end of the game for the Rams, they were so lucky,

255
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Speaker 1: everything went right, they only had a five percent chance

256
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Speaker 1: of winning. Everything went wrong for the Bears, the whole

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Speaker 1: deep dive. And then he looked at me. He goes,

258
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Speaker 1: So we're going to bet on ebra Flus and Williams

259
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Speaker 1: against McVeigh and Stafford. Yeah, and I said, yes, yes

260
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Speaker 1: we are. And if we need to do a Capitol

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Speaker 1: call at some point in mid season because of calls

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Speaker 1: like this, I'm gonna be okay with it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say.

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Speaker 3: The only fear is is are we walking into it

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Speaker 3: again with the Is this like the Titans last week?

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Speaker 3: We're taking the lesser coach, the lesser QB against you know,

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Speaker 3: a matchup that we think is good. Like I totally agree, Like,

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Speaker 3: to me, this is really a bet on this Barrius defense,

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Speaker 3: Like this is a perfect matchup for you guys being

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Speaker 3: able to attack this Rams team. But yeah, it's tough

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Speaker 3: to get there, especially because the numbers up.

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Speaker 2: To minus three now.

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Speaker 1: So it's like, man, well I think in the contest

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Speaker 1: it'll be a two and a half. It's not going

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Speaker 1: to be a three and a half because this number

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Speaker 1: is at minus three and it's going to go back

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Speaker 1: down to two and a half. Would you see it

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Speaker 1: that way?

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Speaker 3: I don't know, because, like you just said, like every

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Speaker 3: profession I talked to, for the most part, is on

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Speaker 3: this Bear side.

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Speaker 2: They like this Bear side.

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Speaker 3: They like the value here and it's you know, just

284
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Speaker 3: what we talked about, like a couple of little mistakes

285
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Speaker 3: here and there, they can fix it. They're a pretty

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Speaker 3: damn good team. I think one of the first things

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Speaker 3: they're trying to do is, you know, move away from

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Speaker 3: Swift where it's like, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 3: it's theo Lion's the problem. I don't know if Swift's

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Speaker 3: the biggest problem. His dance in the backfield's not helping.

291
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Speaker 3: But it's like, okay, if that's the one move they're

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Speaker 3: going to try to make this week, and maybe that

293
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Speaker 3: will work out for us.

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Speaker 2: But they can't have Caleb Williams.

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Speaker 3: Throwing fifty times, even though against his Rams team that

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Speaker 3: wouldn't be the worst thing, right, that's how you attack

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Speaker 3: this team. It's like they want that though, because eventually

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Speaker 3: he'll make a mistake and they'll capitalize on it. If

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Speaker 3: he turns them all over, that's what's going to keep

300
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Speaker 3: hurting this team. So this this is a tough game

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Speaker 3: to me. You're right, if it's two and a half,

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Speaker 3: it is very tempting to put into our contest because

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Speaker 3: it's a good number against a Rams team that you

304
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Speaker 3: just said it like that was their perfect game last week.

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Speaker 2: I just can't see them having back to back weeks

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Speaker 2: that way.

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Speaker 1: There has never been a player in the NFL who

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Speaker 1: gets three yards faster than DeAndre Swift. Every time he

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Speaker 1: gets the ball, he's going so fast it looks like

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Speaker 1: he's going to gain fifty yards in a play. Three

311
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Speaker 1: yards later he gets tackled and it's a useless play.

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Speaker 1: Agree with me, right, because you were an Eagles fan,

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Speaker 1: like you've seen it. The guy shifty, he dances, it

314
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Speaker 1: looks like it's going to be an exciting play. He

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Speaker 1: gets three yards.

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Speaker 3: It's It's also like, I don't I'll never get why

317
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Speaker 3: you guys signed them. I felt like you already had

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Speaker 3: a good backfield. It never made sense, and now you

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Speaker 3: think back, it's like it's twenty four million. It's just

320
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Speaker 3: it is a weird, weird move for the Bears to

321
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Speaker 3: get him. So I agree with that he dances way

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Speaker 3: too much.

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Speaker 1: Well, listen, the only other thing I like about this is,

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Speaker 1: you know Chris Raybon his last seven bets last weekend,

325
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Speaker 1: he went seven to oher. I listened to the Action

326
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Speaker 1: Pod with Raymon and Stuckey in their Sunday six pack.

327
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Speaker 1: Raybon had the Bears, So that gives me a little

328
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Speaker 1: bit of hope, a little bit of hope. Teams coming

329
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Speaker 1: off a fourteen point plus comeback forty percent against the

330
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Speaker 1: spread in the next game. This is the ultimate by

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Speaker 1: low Cell. High go Bears, Hungry Bears are violent Bears.

332
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Speaker 1: New Orleans at Atlanta, don't laugh at me, don't laugh

333
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,400
Speaker 1: at my joy and my passion. Come on, New Orleans

334
00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:30,360
Speaker 1: at Atlanta. It's two and a half. Look it was

335
00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:33,320
Speaker 1: at one and a half. You liked Atlanta. This is

336
00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:35,000
Speaker 1: to me, it is like the Eagles in Bucks game.

337
00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:38,800
Speaker 1: Though there's so many injuries on the Falcons offensive line,

338
00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,920
Speaker 1: like Drew Dolman is out, he's on IR and he

339
00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:48,479
Speaker 1: is the best player at his position in the NFL. Arguably,

340
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Speaker 1: Kaylen McGarry day to day did not practice on Wednesday.

341
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Speaker 1: Home Division faves forty five percent against the spreads in

342
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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 3: I told you the line was bad. You were you

344
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,560
Speaker 3: couldn't get there. You thought the line should move more

345
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:05,440
Speaker 3: because these old line around. I told you I moved

346
00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:07,960
Speaker 3: it by half a point, made it two and a half.

347
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:10,240
Speaker 3: It's now two and a half. So yeah, I'm with you.

348
00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:13,880
Speaker 3: It's like, I really love this line. I still love it,

349
00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:15,480
Speaker 3: but I know it's gonna be harder to get you there.

350
00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:17,720
Speaker 3: But I wish you had been at one and a half.

351
00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:19,040
Speaker 3: It feels pretty good to be holding a one and

352
00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:20,840
Speaker 3: a half ticket in this matchup. It's like, it feels

353
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Speaker 3: like this this number is gonna matter in this one.

354
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,720
Speaker 3: It's just gonna be a close, ugly game. Went through

355
00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,879
Speaker 3: Evans trends there. Car tends to struggle in these kind

356
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Speaker 3: of matchups against Atlanta on the road, so another nice

357
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:34,360
Speaker 3: spot for Atlanta trend wise as well. I still think

358
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Speaker 3: that the Saints are a little overrated. I just think

359
00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,880
Speaker 3: the number says that. It's like I told you, if

360
00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,480
Speaker 3: if there was no injury to this Falcons team, I

361
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:44,439
Speaker 3: probably have this number at three three and a.

362
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:45,160
Speaker 2: Half, all right.

363
00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:46,520
Speaker 3: I did move to two and a half out of

364
00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,600
Speaker 3: respect to the injuries to have upfront. But it's like,

365
00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,480
Speaker 3: at what point do we come back on the other side.

366
00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,560
Speaker 3: It's just and it's Kirk Cousins at one pm, right.

367
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 3: We always joked like this is when you want to

368
00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,879
Speaker 3: bet Kirk Cousins at one pm these type of games.

369
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:04,360
Speaker 3: So I get your hesitation though it's like it's it's

370
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,160
Speaker 3: a big deal. But on the flip side, the Saints

371
00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:09,959
Speaker 3: they lost their all pro center as well, and like

372
00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:12,680
Speaker 3: we saw, they could not run the ball. We'll see

373
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Speaker 3: if Kamar practices. He didn't practice this week yet either, Like, so, okay,

374
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,520
Speaker 3: take some hills out if Kamar is banged up. Now

375
00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:22,160
Speaker 3: you're taking away the run game, which is the only

376
00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 3: reason the Saints were as good.

377
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,400
Speaker 2: As they've looked these past three weeks.

378
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:28,840
Speaker 3: You know, it all starts adding up where it's like,

379
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:30,800
Speaker 3: how do you not take Atlanta here? So just something

380
00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:32,439
Speaker 3: to keep your eye on. If if they do have

381
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,520
Speaker 3: a bunch of injuries to this backfield for this stats team,

382
00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 3: it's just another reason for you to want to take Atlanta.

383
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:40,280
Speaker 1: Look, it's going to be interesting, right we're trying to

384
00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:43,239
Speaker 1: get five for the contest. We don't love putting in

385
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:47,359
Speaker 1: that many favorites, and I feel like there's probably three

386
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 1: or four favorites that we are both going Between the

387
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:53,920
Speaker 1: two of us, We're going to have strong opinions on

388
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 1: this week three.

389
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:57,959
Speaker 3: Though, like I would say, normally you're right, but on

390
00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:02,119
Speaker 3: certain weeks, yeah, like you gotta take someone sometimes you

391
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:03,560
Speaker 3: got to take these little favorites, you know.

392
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:05,080
Speaker 1: Take the number that's in front of you.

393
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,359
Speaker 3: We have ugly dogs. I mean, fuck man, we're about

394
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,000
Speaker 3: to go through it. We have like three just ugly dogs.

395
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 1: So the mirror image here in terms of the spread

396
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 1: and the side that we like Minnesota at Green Bay.

397
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:21,719
Speaker 1: This one's been bouncing around. It was at two and

398
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 1: a half, it touched three, it's back down to two

399
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,159
Speaker 1: and a half. I think it might get back to

400
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,919
Speaker 1: three at least that's what the juice is indicating you

401
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 1: liked Minnesota in this game. I think I've come around

402
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:32,360
Speaker 1: to it.

403
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 3: Well we bet I don't know if you bet it,

404
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,439
Speaker 3: but I bet green Bay minus two on Sunday and

405
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,120
Speaker 3: now I've come back and I have bet the three

406
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,920
Speaker 3: in Minnesota. But the pros actually love green Bay here,

407
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:47,080
Speaker 3: and I'm just I just don't agree where It's like,

408
00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:49,680
Speaker 3: I feel like the advantage right goes to the Vikings.

409
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 3: With Jordan Love coming off as injury, it's like.

410
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:52,879
Speaker 2: Is he rushing back?

411
00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,439
Speaker 3: You know, I'll send you the clip or maybe the

412
00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:00,400
Speaker 3: film of it, but it's like Jordan Love has done

413
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,200
Speaker 3: well against Brian Floores in this defense, like he knows

414
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 3: how to attack it same with the floor, and.

415
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 2: You know that that might.

416
00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 3: Be the reason why there's so much professional money coming

417
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 3: on Green Bay. So this is a game where I

418
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 3: have other dogs I like more than the Vikings. Maybe

419
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 3: I'll sit this one out. Just how to respect all

420
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:19,680
Speaker 3: these different groups coming in so heavy on the screen

421
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,199
Speaker 3: Bay eight team. But I think me and on the

422
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,240
Speaker 3: same page where it's like, I trust this Vikings defense

423
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 3: against Love and the Vikings offense is just on another

424
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,160
Speaker 3: level right now. So yeah, this is definitely an interesting line.

425
00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:34,880
Speaker 3: The trends haven't put out though they're not. They don't

426
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 3: favor these three and oh teams that are dogs this.

427
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 1: Week, right But this is where it gets tricky. The

428
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:47,160
Speaker 1: trends do favor the road dogs in these division games

429
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,160
Speaker 1: by a wide margin, right right right, the home dog,

430
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 1: the home favorites, the short home favorites three points or

431
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 1: less forty five percent against the spread the past twenty years.

432
00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,440
Speaker 1: Home Division phase overall forty five percent against the spread

433
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 1: since twenty sixteen. So the Vikings are on the right

434
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 1: side of that trend. They're on the wrong side of

435
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:09,680
Speaker 1: the undefeated trend. So then we got to take it

436
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 1: down to the base level of the teams in the personnel,

437
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 1: and I'm kind of with you. The Vikings defense. It's

438
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 1: not like Seattle's defense where they've beaten up on Bo

439
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 1: Nicks and Jacoby Brissett and a couple of high school

440
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:30,160
Speaker 1: kids playing for Miami. They confused Rock Purty, they confused CJ. Stroud,

441
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 1: like two of the better quarterbacks by the way, against

442
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:35,920
Speaker 1: the Blitz, two of the quarterbacks who thrive against the Blitz.

443
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,119
Speaker 1: They were doing so much mixing and matching with their defense.

444
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 1: They made those quarterbacks look bad and that's why they

445
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 1: lost those games. Vikings defense is number one in DVA

446
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 1: started the season with five sacks and three straight games,

447
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 1: first time since ninety one. Like, this defense really good,

448
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 1: and they're going against a quarterback who may be rushing

449
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:59,360
Speaker 1: back from a pretty bad injury. So I'm less. I'm

450
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,160
Speaker 1: actually more around to it, I think than you are

451
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 1: at this point, certainly than you were than I was

452
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 1: on Tuesday.

453
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just once again, I just all the professional

454
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 3: money come in.

455
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 2: I have to respect it. These guys know what they're doing.

456
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 1: Respect respect. Well, here's one we can agree on, please,

457
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 1: and by the way, we do need to go into

458
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 1: the foxhole. So it's very possible we could go into

459
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 1: the Foxhall with Minnesota. No, okay, that's a hard noe,

460
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:36,919
Speaker 1: hard pass from very hard pass. Simon. That was like

461
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 1: a disgusted, don't talk to me past all right. Pittsburgh

462
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 1: at Indianapolis, Simon says, when it was two, it's down

463
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 1: to one and a half. Moved almost immediately when you

464
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 1: made the announcement that it was Simon says, basically one

465
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 1: and a half everywhere. Look, I think the Steelers defense

466
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 1: is mitigated by the Colts top ranked, top ranked, past

467
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 1: blocking o line. The Steamers have a terrible offense. I

468
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 1: don't think it has an advantage over the cult middling defense. Yeah,

469
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 1: this is one of the bigger luck ranking games this

470
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 1: week with India as the unlucky team. It's in the

471
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 1: contest at one and a half. Say your piece, we

472
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 1: love it.

473
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 3: The fear is, I'll say with the pushback is when

474
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 3: I talked to other pros what their hesitation is, because

475
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 3: this is this is a pros versus jos. The pros

476
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 3: absolutely love this Colts team. The public cannot get enough

477
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 3: of this Pittsburgh team. Like I was in Atlantic City

478
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 3: yesterday with the three different sports books it's each guy.

479
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 3: I was like, who is the most money coming in on?

480
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 3: Right now? It's always going to be the Eagle, especially

481
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 3: in Atlantic City. It's where it's proximity. Is number two

482
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 3: without a doubt. Was Pittsburgh, Like just you can't stop

483
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 3: get enough money on Pittsburgh. So right now you're saying

484
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 3: it's four to one money right now on Pittsburgh. Compared

485
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 3: it to this Colts team, So very telling because I

486
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 3: joke with them, I go, yeah, why don't you go

487
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 3: back up to two then? And he just gave me

488
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 3: a side I look of like, we don't need to.

489
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 3: We like this spot. So that gave me some confidence here.

490
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,400
Speaker 3: I think me and you are only real hesitation. Here

491
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 3: is Anthony Richardson, like this guy is gonna burn us

492
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 3: on one.

493
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:16,959
Speaker 2: Or two plays.

494
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 3: Me and you know that when we bet, Yes, it's

495
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 3: it's just part of the deal here, especially when he's

496
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 3: going against you know, a top to top three defense

497
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 3: in this league. It's it's gonna happen. But I think

498
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 3: it nailed it. Like this, this old line is gonna

499
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 3: be the difference to me in this game. They're gonna

500
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 3: ball control with Jonathan Taylor. I believe you had over

501
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,360
Speaker 3: one hundred yards two touchdowns last week against the Bears.

502
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 3: It's the same scenario here where it's like, Okay, the Bears,

503
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 3: the greatest strength they had was they're passing rush and

504
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 3: their pass attack and the secondary. Same thing to go

505
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 3: with this Pittsburgh team. It's like they they dominate teams

506
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 3: that they had the team when teams have to pass

507
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 3: against them. When you when you can run the ball,

508
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 3: control the clock, that's when they struggle.

509
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 2: Right.

510
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 3: So this, this Colts team, this is a they need

511
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 3: to get right spot. They just have not put it

512
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 3: together a complete game, even though it looked like they

513
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,400
Speaker 3: did against that Bears team. That was just a really

514
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 3: sloppy game overall. So this, this to me, is a

515
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 3: nice spot historically Anthony richterest in his young career when

516
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 3: he faces really good defense as he performs really well

517
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 3: against them. So hopefully that trend continues here. Chat, it's

518
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,679
Speaker 3: just really about trust the number as well, like I have.

519
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 3: The Colt is a small favorite in this matchup. You know,

520
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 3: I'm getting two points of value compared to my model

521
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 3: against a Pittsburgh team that we talked about. Eventually it's

522
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 3: going to go the other way, right, justin field. Isn't

523
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 3: this squeaky clean, never turn the ball over kind of guy.

524
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 3: He eventually has major mistakes. He just been very blessed

525
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 3: has not been put in those situations at all because

526
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 3: they've been playing with these leads. So yeah, I feel

527
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 3: like eventually it's going to catch up to him. We

528
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 3: would get some good value on a number. Now we're

529
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 3: getting it right. They're three to zero against the spread.

530
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 3: Three oh straight up this year, Pittsburgh. Eventually it's going

531
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 3: to run out. I feel like it does.

532
00:25:56,000 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 1: Here, terrible, terrible spot from Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin as

533
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 1: a road favorite. We know he obviously won this year

534
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 1: as a road favorite, but in his career, Mike Tomlin

535
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 1: is a road favorite, is as bad as he is

536
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 1: good as an underdog. So this is a spot where

537
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 1: do you want to fade Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

538
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 1: All Right, we know that one's getting in Washington, Arizona.

539
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 1: Arizona's a three and a half point favorite. This line

540
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 1: is held firm. I know, I'm really surprised because it

541
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 1: still feels to me like we are getting the Cardinals

542
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:40,199
Speaker 1: at a really good time, Like their offense is improving.

543
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: Their defense is improving again. It's probably a by low

544
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 1: Sell high spot, maybe the most obvious by low Sell

545
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 1: high on the board because of Washington and what they did.

546
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 1: I feel I just got the sense just looking at

547
00:26:56,640 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 1: your face this second and the way you said that's true,

548
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 1: that you were wavering on this.

549
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 3: I'm not. I bet it.

550
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 2: The wavering is more just. I don't get why there's.

551
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 3: So many professionals go on the other side taking this

552
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 3: Commanders team where it just feels like the obvious trap

553
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 3: where it's like this line hasn't moved too much in

554
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,439
Speaker 3: your opinion, I thought it moved too much. And a

555
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 3: lot of guys are like, no, I think this is

556
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:22,879
Speaker 3: where it should be in this type of matchup. And

557
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 3: it's like, man, I get Daniel's did look amazing, Like

558
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,439
Speaker 3: we've never seen anything like that. This kid, you know,

559
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,359
Speaker 3: one week he can't find the end zone, right, they

560
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 3: were driving at will against the Giants, couldn't find the

561
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 3: red zone. He follows it up where he couldn't miss

562
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 3: everything he did turn into a touchdown. So it's like

563
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 3: me and you have to ride those extremes here.

564
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:46,719
Speaker 2: We don't know what kind of get kid. We're getting here.

565
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 3: But when I know one thing, I know what I'm

566
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,199
Speaker 3: going to get on the Cardinals side is I like

567
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 3: the way they're set up right now, and I think

568
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 3: they're the way they are built is the same way

569
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 3: the Bucks were built. Against this team, it's like they

570
00:27:58,000 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 3: can ball control and have guys on the outside that

571
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 3: can eat this Commander's team. And defensively they have guys

572
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 3: that can get stops for them. Now their best de

573
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 3: tackle is probably gone for the season this Arizona team,

574
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 3: but they are getting an offensive lineman back this week,

575
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 3: so you know, not total cancel out.

576
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 2: It's a big deal for their defense.

577
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,360
Speaker 3: But you know, this is a it's a young team

578
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 3: that they lost the veteran on the defensive front. But

579
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 3: you know this this number is just a tricky one

580
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 3: where it's like, I really like Arizona. I feel like

581
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 3: I'm missing something here and I don't know what that is,

582
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 3: because to me, this is.

583
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 2: Touch a letdown spot.

584
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 3: Especially Holy shit, man, can can Jane Daniels gonna any

585
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 3: more smoke one up his ass?

586
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 2: This week? It's been ridiculous where yeah it's well.

587
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 3: Deserved, but these conversations of these guys taking the victory

588
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 3: laps of being like, see, I told you should have

589
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 3: went one over Williams. It's like Jesus christ Man, these

590
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 3: people are the fucking worst.

591
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 2: These are the same people.

592
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 3: That were touting Bryce Young to be the number one

593
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 3: pick for six months.

594
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 2: They just they're no different.

595
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 3: So I don't think this is at all comparable to

596
00:28:57,840 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 3: Bryce Young CJ from last year.

597
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 2: The gap between Caleb.

598
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 3: And Jaden Daniels wasn't that huge, but when you factor

599
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 3: in age, it was a big deal. It's like, why

600
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 3: would you take a guy who's two three years older

601
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 3: than Caleb Williams. It just didn't make sense when they're

602
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 3: They're playing style is not that much different. So yeah,

603
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 3: for this matchup, Chad, you know, I get the hesitation,

604
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 3: the fear that I have right now with this Arizona

605
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 3: team because something just seems off for this number. But

606
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 3: at three and a half, we think Arizona is a

607
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 3: good team. We think they're a playoff team. If they are,

608
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 3: this is a game they should smack the hell out

609
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 3: of US Washington team after that type of game. So

610
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 3: this this is the only Again, the only fear here

611
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 3: is we're walking to a team and that's just on

612
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 3: our role in Washington. Right, everything is just clicking for them.

613
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 3: But this is historically through Evans trends. This is a

614
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 3: perfect spot to fade the Jaden Daniels.

615
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 1: Look, the line has moved two points. You're getting a

616
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 1: little bit of blowback from wise guys. Are we in

617
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 1: the foxhill right now?

618
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 2: I'll do it. I love it right in the fox

619
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 2: hill with.

620
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 1: The Arizona Cardinals. Let's clid down into the foxhole. No

621
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 1: better team to be in the foxhole with than the

622
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals and Kyler Murray. Guess what time it is, Simon,

623
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 1: It is time four hour Big Ball, Better the Week

624
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy

625
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 1: John has the support. Great games start with great underwear

626
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 1: and Tommy John, as you know, makes the greatest. And

627
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 1: it's one of the reasons why we are undefeated so

628
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 1: far this year with our big Balls Beat of the Week,

629
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: and it's why we are so comfortable going with the

630
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:55,959
Speaker 1: depleted run down Los Angeles Chargers lost seven and a

631
00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 1: half as home underdogs against the King's City Chiefs. Simon,

632
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 1: we said it before we came on the air, but

633
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 1: we were discussing what we were going to do. I said,

634
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 1: I think we got to go with the Chargers. You

635
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 1: blanched everything about our philosophy, our history, our passion for betting,

636
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 1: says we take the Chargers. Here, are you my betting buddy?

637
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 3: I am no. I love the Chargers. My whole hesitation.

638
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 3: I think you know it is this was eight and

639
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 3: a half. We both bet it. I don't know if

640
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 3: you bet at eight and a half or got it eight,

641
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 3: but it was like it was at a really nice number.

642
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 3: Now it's down to seven and a half. I'll bet

643
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 3: it again with you, like I love this number.

644
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 2: I love this spot.

645
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 3: I'll put in the contest, and it's really about my

646
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 3: homes and this Chiefs team. I feel like there's still

647
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 3: getting way too much respect. On the flip side, this

648
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 3: Chargers team is banged up as they are, they can

649
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 3: kind of keep this game close, right We talked about

650
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 3: that there's ways.

651
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 2: For them to stay in this game and keep this

652
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 2: one close.

653
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 3: So it's obviously we're both hoping it's Herbert. I feel

654
00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 3: way more confident in taking this number, but I think

655
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 3: the number saying that Herbert's not going to play. But

656
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 3: you know, I'm looking at the live just since you

657
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 3: mentioned this game. This number is already moving.

658
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:06,959
Speaker 2: To seven a couple books.

659
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 3: So I would say most of the guys listening to

660
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 3: the show love this game as well. Hopefully you guys

661
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 3: are all right, because I like it too.

662
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 2: I just don't have this.

663
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 3: You have way more confident, I would say, in Tyler

664
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 3: Heineke and this John Harball team than I do. So

665
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 3: I'm definitely kind of trusting Mahomes isn't right yet and

666
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 3: this Chargers defense will to get some takeaways. So let's

667
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 3: let's take the ugly seven and a half.

668
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 1: I'm with you, brother, an ugly seven and a half

669
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 1: where joe al Rashaun Slater likely out, Joey Bosa did not,

670
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 1: jo might be out to Yeah, Justin Herbert was limited.

671
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 1: This is a luck game favoring the Chargers. The Chiefs

672
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 1: have grated out as the luckiest team so far in

673
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 1: our luck rankings, Simon. But I'm not worried because if

674
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke goes backup QB's fifty five percent against spread

675
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 1: since twenty twenty one, dogs have six plus points or

676
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 1: more eight and five straight up, twelve and one against the

677
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 1: spread through the first three weeks. I am not not afraid.

678
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 3: Oh man, I didn't know Joe All was out to me.

679
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 3: That is a big that's a bigger deal because now

680
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 3: you're down both tackles. Shit, man, I mean this takes.

681
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 3: This takes some big balls jab making this bet.

682
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 1: We got big balls, Simon. Our big balls are supported

683
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: by the underwear that we put on every Sunday. It's

684
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 1: the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. It is the

685
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 1: second skin that has given me the confidence to make

686
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 1: bets like the Los Angeles Chargers without anyone on their

687
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 1: offensive line. They are giving free runs to the Kansas

688
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 1: City Chiefs defensive line, and we're still going with them.

689
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 1: When you're truly comfortable, you can be better. If you

690
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 1: love Simon and I, if you love this show, you

691
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 1: love Tommy John, gey five percent off your first order

692
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 1: right now at Tommy john dot com slash favorites. Save

693
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:09,800
Speaker 1: twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash Favorites.

694
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:11,439
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm going to have a hard time

695
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 1: getting you to get the charters into the contest. We

696
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 1: got a couple more games here Cleveland at the Raiders.

697
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 1: You've been all over this. It was at minus one.

698
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 1: It actually moved from Cleveland minus one to Raiders minus one.

699
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: Now at Raiders minus two, what do you have this

700
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,320
Speaker 1: power rader at Do you still have an edge in

701
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 1: this game? Are we worried? Well, let's let's answer that.

702
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got it minus three, So yeah, I still

703
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 3: show value here. You know, I I did have it

704
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 3: at minus three and a half. Idjusted it down a

705
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 3: little bit just because I think Minshew is just struggling

706
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 3: a little bit and they don't really have a run

707
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 3: game right now. But you know, my view of this

708
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 3: chat is just Watson has historically been horrible. If if

709
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:55,319
Speaker 3: you look at I think a Browns fan did a

710
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 3: chart and it was basical of all the quarterbacks they've

711
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 3: had since I think two thousand and one. If you

712
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:03,399
Speaker 3: go look at that list of these names of these quarterbacks, Jack,

713
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 3: you'd be amazed at.

714
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 2: Some of these names.

715
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,760
Speaker 3: You know, who's number two worst quarterback in that entire

716
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 3: span to Shaun Watson. So it's it's pretty telling how

717
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 3: bad they've been. You know, it's not gonna get any better.

718
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 3: We talked about they've already there lost another starter from

719
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 3: their offensive line, Miles Garrett. I mean, what by week

720
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 3: eight is probably gonna be shut down getting surgery because

721
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 3: this team is just is not gonna have a winning record.

722
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,879
Speaker 2: It's just a nice spot to attack this team. It's just.

723
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 3: I just can't get over how bad they are. And

724
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,319
Speaker 3: then you factor in like all these trends evn't had

725
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 3: about the Browns traveling from East Coast to West coast.

726
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 3: Historically they've been terrible, you know, the Raiders as well.

727
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 2: Raiders at home.

728
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 3: I know they just got wildped and embarrassed by the Panthers,

729
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 3: but they usually play well at home, you know. So

730
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 3: I'm just I'm just thinking about the Max Crosby Wilkens

731
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 3: matchup with this O line. It's just how does Watson

732
00:35:57,920 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 3: beat us this? They're gonna fold them up. Man, He's

733
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 3: gonna be a lawn share in this game. It's just

734
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 3: it's just such a great match of the Raiders team.

735
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,800
Speaker 3: That's why you've seen this number move and I'll just

736
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 3: see the action app real quick. Yeah, it's I mean,

737
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 3: it's professionals. Sixty five percent of the money right now

738
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 3: is coming in on the Vikings, even though fifty percent

739
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 3: of the tickets right now is on the Browns.

740
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 2: So the Raiders.

741
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's I don't know, I do really like

742
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 3: the Raiders. I know it's gonna be hard to convince

743
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 3: you on this one, just because there are so many

744
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 3: questions about this team, but I'll send you some of

745
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 3: these trends Evan has about this Browns team. Man, but man,

746
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 3: this is just such a fade spot. They won't be

747
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 3: a team I'd back at all the Browns until they

748
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 3: do make a switch a quarterback position. You know, they're

749
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 3: one win this year there one cover was against the

750
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 3: Jaguars team that just looks lost. So yeah, there's a

751
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 3: lot of reasons to like this Vegas team to bounce

752
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 3: back here in a spot they usually win.

753
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:58,760
Speaker 1: So here's the one thing I'll say about historical team trends.

754
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 1: I don't care about him. Like, to me, they're not

755
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:07,399
Speaker 1: indicative of anything because these teams change so much year

756
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 1: to year. Circumstances change. I don't care about historical team trends.

757
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: I think what's interesting to me is how if we're

758
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 1: going to say Jalen Hurts is having turnover issues and

759
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 1: one season is circumstantial, in the beginning of a second

760
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:32,360
Speaker 1: season becomes habitual, Deshaun Watson has reached post habitual just

761
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 1: bad stages, right, like we tried making so many excuses

762
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 1: for this guy over the last two plus years and

763
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 1: it's just not there. And I think that's why everyone

764
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 1: is starting to feel more comfortable betting against him. Like

765
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 1: people are always in the back of their mind worried

766
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 1: that he's going to pop off, right, that he's going

767
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 1: to have that game, that he's going to find the magic,

768
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 1: that he's going to be who he was, to paraphrase

769
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:02,800
Speaker 1: Rick Patino, Bernie Kosar is not walking through that door.

770
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 1: Like he's just not a very good quarterback right now.

771
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 1: So I'm with you. I'm with you, and I'm super

772
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 1: excited to now have the Raiders, the Cardinals, the Bears

773
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 1: as short favorites in the contest this week. Or should

774
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:25,760
Speaker 1: we go with Baltimore minus two and a half, which

775
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:31,320
Speaker 1: feels like something that we want to do and Faden

776
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 1: an undefeated MVP leading team for a underperforming team that

777
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:44,800
Speaker 1: feels a little schizophrenic whose defense has not performed well

778
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 1: that almost gave up a twenty five point lead or

779
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 1: whatever it was, twenty two point lead to the Dallas Cowboys.

780
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 1: Let's go Ravens.

781
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 2: I know, I think we both know this.

782
00:38:56,320 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 3: We're supposed to do but it is horribly terrifying, especially

783
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 3: when you just think about this Ravens team right now.

784
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 3: They've been dominant against the run, like I think their

785
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 3: second best defense EPA per play against the run. But

786
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 3: it's because team's gonna pass it against him. I mean,

787
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 3: that's that's been really that's been a problem this year,

788
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 3: Like teams are being able to pass the ball through the.

789
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 2: Air against this Ravens team. Now we have the.

790
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 3: MVP coming in with you know, the bunch of nameless joes,

791
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 3: but he's making it work. Like when you don't know

792
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 3: who he's gonna go to, who's gonna have to force

793
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 3: the ball to, it's terrifying. I mean you if you,

794
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 3: I don't know, if you rewatch that Jaguars game, it

795
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:39,879
Speaker 3: might be two too painful. But I loved it, even

796
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,400
Speaker 3: though I lost money obviously. It's just like he was

797
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 3: so good. He's so good, like every ball was right

798
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:48,759
Speaker 3: where it need to be, is protecting his receivers, hitting

799
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 3: guys in stride. I get the hesitation for everybody for

800
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 3: this one, but me and Chad always played these kind

801
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 3: of spots. Teams aren't going sixteen seventeen and oh they're

802
00:39:59,280 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 3: gonna lose game.

803
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 2: They're gonna drop games.

804
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:04,840
Speaker 3: And you know, maybe he's too hot and we're a

805
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 3: little too early stepping in front of him here. But

806
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 3: historically this is the number we do play. And I

807
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:12,399
Speaker 3: mean we even talked about the action app right now,

808
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 3: all the bets, all the money, believe it's eighty percent,

809
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 3: it's all in this Bills team.

810
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 2: This number hasn't budged, Chad, It's not budged.

811
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 3: So sports books know this is going to be the

812
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 3: number one teas team this week. Right, Why would you.

813
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:30,439
Speaker 2: Not take the Bills up day and a half? Fuck

814
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:30,920
Speaker 2: I did it.

815
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:32,919
Speaker 3: I don't know, I don't I can't remember the last

816
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 3: time Josh Allen lost by more than a touchdown. I

817
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:37,839
Speaker 3: just I've been thinking about it before we came on here.

818
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 3: I was trying to think of that game, and it's like,

819
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 3: I really can't do it. This guy just always plays

820
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 3: it tough. So we're basically betting on last possession. Our

821
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:49,919
Speaker 3: gual Lamar's got it. He drives a field and our

822
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 3: eighty year old kicker, Justin Tucker kicks one through for us.

823
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 2: We cover this number, like, because.

824
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 1: This is technique is coming back to us.

825
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 3: This just feels like such a sharp number, Like there's

826
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 3: a reason they're holding it here at two and a half.

827
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 3: And Chad knows as well, like the same reason I

828
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 3: wanted to bet Lamar last week, you got him under three.

829
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 3: If you have him under a field goal, He's twenty

830
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 3: three and seven against the spread in his career.

831
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:14,359
Speaker 2: So I just.

832
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 3: Blindly got to keep betting this spot. I mean, it's

833
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 3: just made me so much money over the years, and

834
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 3: I just keep doing it. So, yeah, have all the

835
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 3: ones you've talked about, Like I could see us leaving

836
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 3: this one out just because this one really does make

837
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:27,479
Speaker 3: me sick to my stomach, Like we even talk about

838
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 3: another game that makes me sick to my stomach. But

839
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 3: I feel more confident betting it just because there's reasons

840
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 3: to bet it. Where we're literally our biggest reason for

841
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 3: betting this right now is just the Bills have played.

842
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 3: I'd say, the Cardinals are all right, Miami's dog shit,

843
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 3: and the Jaguars don't look any better.

844
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 2: So it's like we're.

845
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 3: Kind of betting on is he really this good or

846
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 3: is he just been beating.

847
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 2: Up on bad defenses. That's kind of what this bet.

848
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 3: Is right now. So it sounds crazy, We're saying to

849
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 3: Josh Allam, and prove it to us again. But that's

850
00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 3: what it feels we're doing here, Chad taking the Raims.

851
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:01,879
Speaker 3: It's like, oh, Okay, you've done great, You've looked great

852
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 3: to start this year. Now play a really good team

853
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:06,839
Speaker 3: that's one and two and desperate at home in prime

854
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 3: time on Sunday night, Like this is going to be

855
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 3: a great test for him in this Bills team. So yeah,

856
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:13,919
Speaker 3: the more we talk about now, I'm starting to feel

857
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:15,319
Speaker 3: a little better about this Ravens team.

858
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 1: Takes nothing but blind faith to convince any better. All

859
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:21,359
Speaker 1: they got to do is talk about it for him,

860
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 1: be like, of course, I'm betting this game. You went

861
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,280
Speaker 1: from sick to my stomach to feeling confident.

862
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:30,359
Speaker 2: He's not confident. I would not take Josh Allen.

863
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,319
Speaker 3: I'm telling you, if you watch that Jaguars game, he

864
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 3: looks like a man on a mission, right.

865
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 1: He was amazing. And that is the one thing that

866
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 1: worries me is this Ravens defense is not great up

867
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 1: the middle right now, And like the Jaguars were parting

868
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 1: the sea for Josh Allen and he would just do

869
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 1: whatever he wanted to do. He was toying with them.

870
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 2: Kyle Hamilton disappointed.

871
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 3: I mean, have you heard his name at all this season?

872
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 1: And like last year, we loved him. He was everywhere,

873
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 1: He was everywhere.

874
00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 3: So that's that's been the biggest difference. Like whatever you

875
00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 3: know Mike McDonald took with him to Seattle. They have

876
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:05,320
Speaker 3: not figured that out in Baltimore.

877
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 1: Well, speaking of Mike McDonald, the one thing I will

878
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,440
Speaker 1: say before we get to him and soon.

879
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:13,799
Speaker 2: I feel like you're passing on the game we talked

880
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 2: about and we love. I am Jaguars.

881
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 1: Well I thought we weren't going to talk about it

882
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 1: because well because now the numbers down to six and

883
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:28,360
Speaker 1: so like the value.

884
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 2: Six and a half's out there.

885
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 3: I do want before we move too fast, I want

886
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 3: fans to know, like two games I think we're not

887
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 3: going to talk about I love Jaguars. You can Chad

888
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 3: loves it too. You can get six and a half

889
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 3: out there. I still like the Panthers. I don't know

890
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,360
Speaker 3: if you're as luke warm or warm on the Panthers,

891
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 3: but you can still get a plus four four and

892
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 3: a half of a couple of books on this Panthers team.

893
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:48,400
Speaker 3: Just before we totally move off of them.

894
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 1: I'm not. I like the Jags. I think it's a

895
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 1: good spot for them. I'm not convinced on the Panthers

896
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 1: right now because I think it's a It's the reverse

897
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 1: of Bilos high. I think you're buying high on the

898
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 1: Panthers and I think you're selling low.

899
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,360
Speaker 3: I'm telling you, the only professionals betting the Panthers still

900
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 3: the public fucking hates them. Everyone is betting the Bengals.

901
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:12,239
Speaker 3: That's how it is.

902
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 4: Man.

903
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 3: They just who you're gonna bet on, Joe Burrow or

904
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,440
Speaker 3: Andy Dalton. They're pretty simple creatures that way. They go, oh,

905
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 3: I guess I'll go Andy Dalton. I guess I'll go

906
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow.

907
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:23,440
Speaker 1: Then it's like, all right, yeah, of course that's what

908
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:29,880
Speaker 1: the public is gonna do. I'm just I'm skeptical that

909
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 1: the Panthers can do it again, you know what I mean. Like,

910
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 1: we've lost so much money on this team. We did

911
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:40,840
Speaker 1: make we did make some of it back last week,

912
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 1: but it was the exact right spot to make it back,

913
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 1: and this feels like the exact right spot to lose

914
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:52,399
Speaker 1: it again. Coming home a ton of confidence, thinking oh

915
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,880
Speaker 1: my god, we're actually a good team we just needed

916
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 1: a capable quarterback and they are going against a team

917
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:05,359
Speaker 1: that is like needs a win for their longs. They

918
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 1: need to win this game. Their season is over if

919
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:09,919
Speaker 1: they don't win this game.

920
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:12,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I get I get where you're coming from,

921
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:14,359
Speaker 3: and I think people think the same way.

922
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 2: But it's just.

923
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 3: I don't think it matters because Joe Burrow, as great

924
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,359
Speaker 3: as he is, it's like they don't have the pieces defensively.

925
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 3: And I saw Chase hasn't practiced this week. He might

926
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:25,879
Speaker 3: have a bad shoulder, so he might he might miss

927
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 3: this game, which is another big deal to this this

928
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 3: Bengo's offense. So I get your hesitation. Man, I don't

929
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 3: feel great about it either. I just think Andy Dalton's

930
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 3: given them such a spark. I think this is a

931
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 3: totally different team. This is the team I thought they

932
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:40,919
Speaker 3: were going to be coming into this season, where it's

933
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 3: like they have offensive weapons that can beat you with

934
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 3: and their defense is bad, but they're young and there's

935
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 3: ways they can attack you defensively. So you're right, like,

936
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:53,040
Speaker 3: if you want to wait and see them doing another game,

937
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 3: I totally get it, because it's like I'm not standing

938
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 3: on my soapbox here saying this needs to be one

939
00:45:57,560 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 3: of our five. I just people need to know I

940
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 3: did bet this pan their side, and you know I

941
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 3: would take it down at the three and a half.

942
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:08,280
Speaker 1: Mike McDonald is getting you know, the he's a brilliant

943
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 1: young coach. Oh my god, what a culture changer he

944
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 1: is treatment around the media this week. It's what happens

945
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 1: when you've got the number one rated defense because you've

946
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 1: beaten up on Bnick's Jacoby Brissett and Skyler Thompson, and

947
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 1: this line has moved aggressively. It's down to three and

948
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 1: a half. Visiting the Detroit Lions on Monday night. You

949
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:39,279
Speaker 1: like Seattle, I think Seattle is not as good as

950
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:42,439
Speaker 1: it's played. You think they are as good. I think

951
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 1: Detroit is better than they have played. And getting a

952
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 1: team at its exact peak right now, Yeah, because.

953
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:50,439
Speaker 2: I mean we joke all the time.

954
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 3: I mean about the same thing we just said of

955
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:54,360
Speaker 3: the Bills, right, it's like, well, who they really beat?

956
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 2: They still beat them?

957
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 3: Like you can't say the same for Cincinnati Bengals, who

958
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 3: lost to New England at home and lost Commanders at home. Right,

959
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:04,359
Speaker 3: so city early in the year here, teams actually can

960
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:07,320
Speaker 3: show up, especially with a new coach. I felt like

961
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:10,319
Speaker 3: the Seattle was the professional side. Clearly it was right.

962
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 3: We've gone for four and a half now down to

963
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:13,879
Speaker 3: three and a half, so it's like, okay, at least

964
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 3: I'm on the same side as the pros. That makes

965
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:17,920
Speaker 3: me feel a little better. But you're right, like, as

966
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 3: the number moved too much, now, would I touch it? No,

967
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:22,720
Speaker 3: it's down to three and a half now, I'm happy

968
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 3: to sit on my four four and a half ticket

969
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,600
Speaker 3: and let this one play out here. But they're just

970
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,800
Speaker 3: I told you my main questions right now is about golf.

971
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 3: He's not looked right through three weeks. They should be

972
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 3: dominating these teams. They've played like their defense is so

973
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 3: much better this year than they have been in previous seasons.

974
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 3: I mean it's just glaring and they're running attack where

975
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 3: it's like you guys can just lean on these teams,

976
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 3: bullyball them like you have the guys up front, and

977
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:51,840
Speaker 3: it just has not worked. So I won't make this

978
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:53,959
Speaker 3: one number five, right because the numbers moved too much,

979
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 3: and I don't think you're anywhere close to my confidence

980
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 3: on the Seattle team.

981
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 2: But yeah, this is uh.

982
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 3: I don't know if if the Lions lost this game,

983
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 3: I'd have to totally reevaluate them, because right now I

984
00:48:05,160 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 3: have them power rate is the number two best team

985
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 3: in the NFC, And it's like, if they drop this one, man,

986
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:11,959
Speaker 3: it's just gonna be such a bad look.

987
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:13,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm with you.

988
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 3: It's like I feel I feel a little bit hesitation

989
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 3: bet in this one as well.

990
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 1: I don't know who our five are right now, but

991
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 1: I do you know our five is loaded with a

992
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 1: lot of favorites. We're gonna put Indy in there, obviously.

993
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:28,880
Speaker 1: I feel strongly we're going to put Chicago in there.

994
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 1: I think it's like, I.

995
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:34,400
Speaker 2: Mean, you want to get Chargers in, right, are big balls?

996
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:36,760
Speaker 1: I mean we've got to get the Chargers in. Yeah,

997
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:41,239
Speaker 1: But like after that, Arizona Love Arizona.

998
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I love love Tampa. I know you're not

999
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 3: there on Tampa.

1000
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 1: If you love Tampa, I could get there on Tampa,

1001
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 1: like I you know, I don't.

1002
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 3: I'm if Kamar is out, could I get you there

1003
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:57,160
Speaker 3: in Atlanta come Sunday? Probably? I think that's a big bill, right.

1004
00:48:57,400 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 1: I think we have to wait until Sunday to really

1005
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:01,360
Speaker 1: sort of nail it. I don't think.

1006
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:03,680
Speaker 3: We're definitely gonna lock in our five though, So if

1007
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:05,440
Speaker 3: people want to see him right, they can hop on

1008
00:49:05,560 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 3: and click on us and see who we picked right

1009
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:11,880
Speaker 3: for our five. But yeah, I would say there's like

1010
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:14,600
Speaker 3: seven teams right now. Feels like we get there, and

1011
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:17,279
Speaker 3: even I know you're not loving the Jaguars, but if

1012
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 3: they're six and a half in contest, it's kind of

1013
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 3: tempting with all the trends that point to this team

1014
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:24,919
Speaker 3: where historically we've just seen Houston, they don't they don't

1015
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:26,560
Speaker 3: do well as these big favorites.

1016
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:29,840
Speaker 2: And you know, not saying the book is that on CJ.

1017
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:33,239
Speaker 3: But he is really bad against man coverage and he's

1018
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 3: great against zone. You know who runs the most man

1019
00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:39,480
Speaker 3: coverage in all football, the shitty ass Jaguars team. So

1020
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 3: it's like there are some reasons too like this Jaguars

1021
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 3: team outside of just the trends. But I'm with you,

1022
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 3: like this week we're heavy on the Chalcombe favorites.

1023
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to our parlay section here, turning

1024
00:49:56,239 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 1: good weekends into great weekends. It's to for the money

1025
00:50:01,160 --> 00:50:05,839
Speaker 1: line parlay underdog money line parlay from bet three six

1026
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:07,959
Speaker 1: five each week we are giving out a two team

1027
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 1: money line dog parlay and Bet three six five boosts

1028
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 1: the odds and highlights it on that site all weekend

1029
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 1: long under both game pages. Our week four boosted underdog

1030
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:28,360
Speaker 1: money line parlay we are going with the Indianapolis Colts

1031
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:33,920
Speaker 1: and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Find the boosts under either

1032
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 1: the Colts or Bucks game pages on bet three six five. Remember,

1033
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:40,720
Speaker 1: both games are eligible for bet three six five's early

1034
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:45,280
Speaker 1: payoff promo, where your money line pick gets marked as

1035
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:48,480
Speaker 1: a win if they take a seventeen point lead even

1036
00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 1: if they lose. So if you want to bet this,

1037
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:55,359
Speaker 1: bet it at bet three six five. We also got

1038
00:50:55,360 --> 00:51:01,720
Speaker 1: to do our money line underdog round robin. There will

1039
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:04,640
Speaker 1: come up heayday, Halla, lou Yo wanta pay day.

1040
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 2: There will come.

1041
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:07,279
Speaker 3: Up payday some day.

1042
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:08,319
Speaker 1: Some day.

1043
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:13,960
Speaker 4: There will come up heayday, Hall Yo, Way will come

1044
00:51:14,000 --> 00:51:15,319
Speaker 4: up payday some day.

1045
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:23,960
Speaker 1: Here's my my suggestions. Ready, chargers, charge chargers, sick for

1046
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:24,640
Speaker 1: you are sick.

1047
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:31,279
Speaker 3: All right, chargers, there's no I love Minnesota, Tampa Bay

1048
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 3: love Tampa.

1049
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 1: I mean we gotta do Indye, gotta do Indy Panthers,

1050
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 1: Jags love Panthers.

1051
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 2: And let's definitely do Jaguars, right all right?

1052
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:47,759
Speaker 1: So who do we just say? Minnesota? Uh Indy, Tampa,

1053
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 1: Panthers and Jags.

1054
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:53,799
Speaker 3: Ye, look at that back to back weeks taking the

1055
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 3: money line on this Panthers.

1056
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 1: Team because you're a coward and don't want to put

1057
00:51:57,280 --> 00:51:59,839
Speaker 1: the Chargers in there, which is fine. Give me your

1058
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:02,400
Speaker 1: big bets right now, you know the numbers.

1059
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:05,280
Speaker 3: It just Mahomes doesn't look doesn't lose to his division.

1060
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:07,440
Speaker 2: He doesn't cover, but he doesn't lose to his division.

1061
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 1: Don't give me your excuses.

1062
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:11,719
Speaker 2: What'd you ask me before?

1063
00:52:11,760 --> 00:52:15,360
Speaker 1: What are your biggest bets?

1064
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:17,239
Speaker 2: I'm pretty spread out.

1065
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:18,799
Speaker 3: I would say the cold Stuffie in one of my

1066
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 3: bigger bets right now, Tampa, Arizona, Vegas and the Ravens.

1067
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 3: After we get off the air, I'll probably hit the

1068
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 3: Chargers even more because I just feel like the seven

1069
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 3: and a half is going to disappear. Probably gonna wait

1070
00:52:36,160 --> 00:52:38,319
Speaker 3: and see what the Kamara news is. Like I was

1071
00:52:38,320 --> 00:52:40,040
Speaker 3: having invested in Atlanta one and a half. I have

1072
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 3: not bet them at two and a half yet, but

1073
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:44,080
Speaker 3: if he is out Kamar, I'm probably gonna attack the

1074
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:48,640
Speaker 3: Atlanta line even more so. Yeah, right now, the earliest

1075
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:53,200
Speaker 3: biggest bets. We'll go Colds, Tampa, Ravens, and Vegas.

1076
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 1: Give me your scoot through, lad because you won last week.

1077
00:52:57,640 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 1: You had the Ravens, I had Miami.

1078
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 3: What the fuck you had Miami and scoot Rolette. Yeah.

1079
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:05,759
Speaker 1: I went with Denver and then Evan like did his

1080
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:09,320
Speaker 1: segment and Mike talked me out of it.

1081
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:11,080
Speaker 2: Eh, you son of a bitch?

1082
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:12,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.

1083
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:18,680
Speaker 3: Shit, Oh man, I got a double dip. I guess

1084
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 3: I'll go with the fucking Colts.

1085
00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:23,280
Speaker 1: Oh dude, I was going to take the Colts.

1086
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 2: I love them.

1087
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:27,839
Speaker 1: I know what I'm doing. You're taking the Colts. I'm

1088
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 1: taking Arizona, Okay, but I really want the Colts. All right,

1089
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:34,520
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, let's bring in Director

1090
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:37,960
Speaker 1: of Research, Evan Abrams for the final word.

1091
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:42,880
Speaker 3: The last word with Evan Abrams, we're.

1092
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:45,719
Speaker 4: Finished talking, all right, guys. Well, it's time to jink

1093
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 4: Simon this week. So let's start with the Colts. I'm

1094
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:51,239
Speaker 4: going to keep this super simple because it really doesn't

1095
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 4: have to be much more complicated than this. When opponents

1096
00:53:54,000 --> 00:53:56,879
Speaker 4: score more than twenty points versus a Justin Fields led team,

1097
00:53:57,160 --> 00:54:00,760
Speaker 4: they're twenty one and oh straight up all thirteen fields,

1098
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 4: wins have come with opponents scoring twenty points or less,

1099
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:06,759
Speaker 4: with their teams averaging thirteen points per game. Richardson just

1100
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 4: needs to put points on the board and you'll win

1101
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 4: the bet. So hopefully that happens. Let's move on to

1102
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:14,600
Speaker 4: the next AFC team. Here, we're gonna talk about the Broncos.

1103
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:16,920
Speaker 4: Now you have to understand the process in putting these

1104
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:18,840
Speaker 4: notes together. I'm trying to predict a little bit of

1105
00:54:18,880 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 4: who you guys are gonna like during the show. Give

1106
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 4: a little momentum, you know, reinforcement, it's always important. So

1107
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:26,640
Speaker 4: we're gonna go with the Broncos here. I think we

1108
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:29,560
Speaker 4: like them against the Jets this week. But the Jets' schedule.

1109
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:32,120
Speaker 4: Jets are the only third team in the last eighty

1110
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:34,439
Speaker 4: years to play the first three games of a season

1111
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:38,600
Speaker 4: within eleven day span. Twenty eighteen Jets and the twenty

1112
00:54:38,680 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 4: thirteen Eagles the other two teams. So the twenty four

1113
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:43,560
Speaker 4: Jets are the only teams to pose a winning record

1114
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 4: during that three game span. But also those other two

1115
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:49,839
Speaker 4: teams lost by seventeen plus in Week four and both

1116
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:52,239
Speaker 4: finish the season under five hundred against the spread, So

1117
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:54,839
Speaker 4: maybe a little bit of impact there. And it's also

1118
00:54:54,960 --> 00:54:58,239
Speaker 4: worth noting this is the first time Sean Payton's team

1119
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 4: will start the season as a dog in four straight

1120
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 4: since his rookie year in two thousand and six with

1121
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:08,000
Speaker 4: New Orleans and Peyton's teams as a dog September October

1122
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:11,879
Speaker 4: thirty thirteen and one against the number. So pretty good

1123
00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 4: and done pretty well this year. And now I got

1124
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 4: to answer Simon's question from before, so this was a

1125
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:19,399
Speaker 4: quick look up. So I'm pretty sure this one's right.

1126
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:23,000
Speaker 4: But Josh Allen's last forty nine starts, he's only lost

1127
00:55:23,040 --> 00:55:25,800
Speaker 4: by seven or more once Bengals in the playoffs in

1128
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:29,480
Speaker 4: twenty twenty three. Lots of losses, but by four, three, six,

1129
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:33,239
Speaker 4: et cetera. So pretty crazy. But this is why you

1130
00:55:33,320 --> 00:55:35,400
Speaker 4: might want to look at Baltimore. So it is a

1131
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:38,839
Speaker 4: tough spot for the Bills. Third straight night game and

1132
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 4: listed as a road dog, only the third team in

1133
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:44,920
Speaker 4: that spot in the last decade. Those teams zero win

1134
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:48,080
Speaker 4: three straight up. But more importantly, they're allowing thirty five

1135
00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:51,040
Speaker 4: points per game, so hopefully Baltimore and Romark can get

1136
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 4: the offense going. And also just a unique spot all around,

1137
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:57,120
Speaker 4: Bills are three and oh, Ravens are one and two,

1138
00:55:57,160 --> 00:55:59,279
Speaker 4: and the Bills are underdogs in this game a three

1139
00:55:59,360 --> 00:56:01,040
Speaker 4: and oh team. There's only been a dog to a

1140
00:56:01,040 --> 00:56:03,800
Speaker 4: team with one win or less six times last twenty years.

1141
00:56:04,080 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 4: They're one in five straight up, losing by almost ten

1142
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:10,759
Speaker 4: points per game. So signs point to Baltimore. Both see

1143
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 4: how it goes, guys.

1144
00:56:12,040 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save.

1145
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:18,440
Speaker 1: You all of a sudden. I think your reason for

1146
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 1: your quick turn there from six to your stomach from

1147
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:24,120
Speaker 1: feeling confident. Now we feel even more confident. What I'm

1148
00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:27,200
Speaker 1: not gonna do is put Baltimore in as my scoo

1149
00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:29,600
Speaker 1: trewe lad. I'm gonna stick with Arizona, even though I've

1150
00:56:29,600 --> 00:56:33,280
Speaker 1: never felt better about the Baltimore Ravens. As a reminder,

1151
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:35,839
Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five

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1160
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:07,480
Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

1161
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:11,399
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

1162
00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:13,719
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

1163
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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply, Simon or I. We'll return

1164
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 1: with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action

1165
00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:24,280
Speaker 1: Network YouTube page on Sunday night, seven point thirty pm Eastern.

1166
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:27,080
Speaker 1: Don't forget to like and subscribe to the Action Network

1167
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:30,520
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1168
00:57:30,520 --> 00:57:33,000
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1169
00:57:33,040 --> 00:57:36,640
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1170
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:47,080
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1171
00:57:47,120 --> 00:57:49,840
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:52,600
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1173
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:53,520
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