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Speaker 1: To the Favorites The podcast presented by BET three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: We are part of the Action Network. I am Chadmoman,

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Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today is our

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Speaker 1: week ten Thursday NFL episode. This is the episode where

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Speaker 1: we get feedback from the wise guys who listen to

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Speaker 1: the show, where we make our Survivor pick and build.

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Speaker 2: Our money line, Underdog round.

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Speaker 1: Robin, where we give out our Foxhold bet and our

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Speaker 1: Big Balls bet of the week, and where we narrow

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Speaker 1: down our picks for the free to play Favorites Podcast

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Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick the contest because

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Speaker 1: of our old pal, Colin Cowhard likes to say there's

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Speaker 1: a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 2: Because there's a sea of money out there. You want

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Speaker 2: to follow along with our official bets.

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Speaker 1: You can check them out on the contest website Favorites

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Speaker 1: dot Actionnetwork dot com when we lock them in before

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Speaker 1: off on Sunday, and if you prefer using the award

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Speaker 1: winning Action app. You can also track all the bets.

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Speaker 1: Simon and I lock in by following two accounts, The

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Speaker 1: Faves five and the Favorite Podcast. Now let's bring in

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Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, my capadre my BFF professional

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Speaker 1: Better Simon and hello saw im in Simon, Simon. As

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Speaker 1: you know Matt Mitchell and I right now, for those

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Speaker 1: watching on YouTube, you might see my very fancy backdrop.

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Speaker 1: Thank you Michael in the Copenhagen office for giving us

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Speaker 1: access to the Copenhagen studio. Matt Mitchell and I are

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Speaker 1: both here Simon for a week of meetings with our

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Speaker 1: colleagues in our Danish overlords in Copenhagen, Better Collective. We

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Speaker 1: went to a Champions League match last night, Simon. We

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Speaker 1: saw FC Copenhagen play Manchester United. I've never been to

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Speaker 1: a European football match. I know you're a big fan

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Speaker 1: of the europe and football. The only way to describe

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Speaker 1: this game is that the whole game was drunk. There

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Speaker 1: were two penalty kicks, a red card, seven goals two

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Speaker 1: by f C Copenhagen in the final minute to the

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Speaker 1: second half to win. Two people in the stands needed

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Speaker 1: medical attention from the medics that are on the team.

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Speaker 1: The game had to be stopped so they could walk

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Speaker 1: across the field with stretchers, and a protester ran onto

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Speaker 1: the field. I know how much you love the sport

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Speaker 1: I think Matt Mitchell and I can agree. He had

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Speaker 1: some really intimate moments with one of the fans behind

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Speaker 1: him who doesn't even speak English. They were just hugging

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Speaker 1: out of a pure joy of watching f C Copenhagen win.

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Speaker 2: Unbelievable. Are they all like this? Are all the European

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Speaker 2: football matches this high score? It is crazy?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Champions League is definitely something that you know, as

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Speaker 3: much as American sports want to brag and say we're

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Speaker 3: the best and it's all of this and that, what

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Speaker 3: is cooler than having your hometown, your favorite team from

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Speaker 3: your country playing another team's club. It's just the coolest thing.

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Speaker 3: Every Champions League and I didn't do it. It'd be like

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Speaker 3: my Philadelphia Eagles playing the best team from Germany or

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Speaker 3: England or Mexico or Canada. They all had football teams.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, Chad, Chad's all my favorite club. Man United

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Speaker 3: lose pretty embarrassing. I always say the two scariest words

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Speaker 3: in the world unites it away Rashford, he's a player

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Speaker 3: for England, got a Man United, got a red card. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: totally flipped that game the game Chad saw and Man

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Speaker 3: United lost four to three, And yeah, I would say

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Speaker 3: you saw probably one of the best Champions League's games

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Speaker 3: you can see in person. They're usually not that that

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Speaker 3: high scoring, so yeah, you saw a pretty special game.

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Speaker 2: Chad, it was insane.

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Speaker 1: We also decided a group of us that the NFL

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Speaker 1: would be more interesting if we could relegate teams, so

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Speaker 1: fairly certain the Bears are being relegated to the Big Ten.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms conditions restrictions apply. Guess what, folks, guess what.

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Speaker 1: Me and Simon are going to be doing a live show.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 1: You can come watch the show live mingle with me

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Speaker 1: and Simon. Matt Mitchell will be there. Our gang is

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Speaker 1: going to be there for a live show. So Sunday, Sunday,

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Speaker 1: December third, The Favorite is going live from New Jersey.

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Speaker 1: That's right, The Shepherd and the Knucklehead on Willow Avenue

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Speaker 1: in beautiful Hoboken, New Jersey, will open the doors at

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Speaker 1: three forty five for the four pm NFL games. We'll

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Speaker 1: be hanging out with all of our listeners, having a blast,

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Speaker 1: and then recording our Sunday recap show live and in

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Speaker 1: person at seven point thirty right before Sunday Night Football Prizes, drinks,

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Speaker 1: warm embraces from the and Simon, and so much more.

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Speaker 2: Please look for I believe.

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Speaker 1: We have a landing page where you can go RSVP.

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Speaker 1: So the landing page is in the episode description of

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Speaker 1: the podcast, so go check that out. Go sign up

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Speaker 1: at the landing page, Go to the episode description. Shepherd

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Speaker 1: and the Knucklehead December third free event. Come watch us

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Speaker 1: live December third, seven thirty in Hoboken, New Jersey. Description

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Speaker 1: page has the rs VP all right. Week ten is

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Speaker 1: approaching opportunities all over the board. I feel like we

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Speaker 1: came to a consensus, let's not dilly dally, Simon, it's

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Speaker 1: time for shof calls.

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Speaker 4: Hello, he's there. I'm talking Rain.

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Speaker 1: Rain telephone Ray Say.

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Speaker 3: Are you allowed to say let's not dilly dally? After

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Speaker 3: you dilly dally for about.

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Speaker 2: Twenty minutes, I wasn't dilly dallying. That was important information.

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Speaker 1: I think I've had eight espressos in the last twenty

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Speaker 1: five minutes.

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Speaker 4: Fired up.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm excited to the live show, have a couple

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Speaker 3: of drinks with the fans, and shout out to the

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Speaker 3: three or four real loyal fans we had that drove

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Speaker 3: up and we had a guy drive from Cincinnati.

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Speaker 4: S it's a Kentucky chat. We did our.

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Speaker 3: So Yeah, I'm excited to see what fans turn out.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, you want to beer with me and Chad,

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Speaker 3: We'll get a beer with you and hopefully, Uh, it's

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Speaker 3: a fun time watching us win some money together at

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Speaker 3: the four pm games.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, sharp calls. A lot of uh, a lot of.

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Speaker 3: Ship talking from the boys this week. They hate hate,

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Speaker 3: hate a couple of our picks, which you know that

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Speaker 3: comes with the territory, especially when we're going on some

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Speaker 3: chalk favorites. I kind of knew it was coming, but

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Speaker 3: luckily the Lions have moved again with us. So you know,

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Speaker 3: as much as much heat that they're trying to give

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Speaker 3: me about taking the lines, feeling like our genius, he

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Speaker 3: took him a minus one. I mean that lines up

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Speaker 3: the three now a lot of books, So not a shocker.

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Speaker 3: The pros are going to like this Chargers team. It's

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Speaker 3: all about what number and and that's my argument is

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Speaker 3: that I want to be on the Chargers, but the

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Speaker 3: number wasn't there and still at three, I still lean

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Speaker 3: towards Detroit like there should be three and a half.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna get there. It looks like like it looks

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Speaker 3: like it's not gonna get the three and a half.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, add a bunch of people like, hey, none

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Speaker 3: of are Detroit pick and how chalky it is. And

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Speaker 3: it's just I have a model. It gives me a number.

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Speaker 3: If it's under that number, I'm with the public on

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Speaker 3: that side. It all depends on the circumstance as well.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, that line's number. Luckily, it's gone up, so

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Speaker 3: I don't feel like more of an idiot because I

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Speaker 3: was working when I was just sitting there two and

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Speaker 3: a half. I'm like, oh God, maybe I did totally

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Speaker 3: misread this one. But luckily the pro money has showed up.

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Speaker 3: It's up to three now. Not shocking a game. I

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Speaker 3: loved that. I mean even now I'm shocked. I loved

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Speaker 3: it so much. Since the verse the Texans I really love.

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Speaker 3: Since the pros really like the Texans, we'll be button

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Speaker 3: heads on that one. I really liked Washington. I think

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Speaker 3: you are kind of on the Seattle side, which is understandable.

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Speaker 3: It's a weird line. The pros love Washington like I

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Speaker 3: can't tell you how many guys I've talked to I

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Speaker 3: love Washington. They love them in this matchup against Seattle.

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Speaker 3: I think a lot of pros view Seattle's defense is fraudulent.

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Speaker 3: That they've gone up against, you know, bad competition that

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Speaker 3: has made their defense look way better than it really

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Speaker 3: are hard to argue with it, right, they they've played

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Speaker 3: a couple of good offenses. Those offenses put up more

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Speaker 3: than thirty points against this defense. That's just factual. With

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Speaker 3: the Seattle Seahawks team. So, you know, a game we

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Speaker 3: weren't too crazy about, but it seems like they're taking

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Speaker 3: position on it. Another game, I was shocked by a

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Speaker 3: couple of pros. I talked, you really like the Vikings,

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Speaker 3: I like the Saints. It's up to three now A

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Speaker 3: lot of books so another number that like, you know,

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Speaker 3: I get where they're coming from if they want to

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Speaker 3: take the Vikings three or three and a half. But

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Speaker 3: at two and a half, how would you not like

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Speaker 3: the Saints. I feel like that was another time we

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Speaker 3: liked the good number and you know a lot of

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Speaker 3: agreements in the Jets Chad, but I think a lot

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Speaker 3: of guys are viewing this as this number is gonna flip.

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Speaker 3: Like a lot of people, I think they talked about

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Speaker 3: what we talked about that they think it's gonna move

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Speaker 3: from Raiders being the dog to the favorite. So another

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Speaker 3: game that I think we talked about. We didn't really

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Speaker 3: give a pick, and I'm kind of happy we didn't, right,

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Speaker 3: I was like, I like, the Jets don't really want

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Speaker 3: to take I think the number is gonna move. I

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Speaker 3: mean it has it's it's a lot of books have

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Speaker 3: a down to one and are some books have flipped it.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, for for games that they didn't like that

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Speaker 3: we picked. I know a couple of really smart pros

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Speaker 3: to like the Packers. You know, doesn't shock me. Uh,

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Speaker 3: say what you want about Pittsburgh. I think everyone's seen

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Speaker 3: that national media lines about they haven't won a game

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Speaker 3: yet this year when they've led by an offensive yardage. Yes,

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Speaker 3: that's uh, that's a problem, but that's the Tomlin magic.

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Speaker 3: Me and Chad we did. I mean, my whole life's

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Speaker 3: melting together. I think we did Greendow Daily Tuesday with

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Speaker 3: Nick and Nick who does our luck rankings posted the

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Speaker 3: luckiest teams of like the last like five seasons. And

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Speaker 3: I want to say last year was the Giants, in

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Speaker 3: the year before that was Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 4: So the past five years, that's what it was.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, this is the biggest luck rankings

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Speaker 1: matchup of the week in favor of green Bay.

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Speaker 3: In favor of green Bay, So you know what they're

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Speaker 3: tracking what goes into luck rankings. Apparently Tomlin's really good

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Speaker 3: at it, and that is getting the most out of

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Speaker 3: inferior players. And that's what those luck rankings listened out

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Speaker 3: to me, is that this guy that the Giants luck

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Speaker 3: rankings of last year. I really do think it shows

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Speaker 3: about how incredible this coaching is. Where it's like these

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Speaker 3: teams are these coaches are taking just not talented teams

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Speaker 3: and they're getting lucky. They're getting the bouncers going their way.

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Speaker 3: But there's more to it that with this Pittsburgh team.

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Speaker 3: So I like was really positive I was gonna make

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Speaker 3: this one of our five no matter what, even if

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Speaker 3: it was if it you know, if it got up

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Speaker 3: to three and a half, I was gonna try to

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Speaker 3: fight you on it. Maybe I need to pull off

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Speaker 3: a little bit because there's so many trends pointing towards

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Speaker 3: Green Bay, but man, this would be tough to pass

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Speaker 3: on our contest at two and a half. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's it's a week of you know, I was again

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Speaker 3: another game I was opening to hear more about, Chad,

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Speaker 3: was this Cleveland game. Yeah, not a lot, not a lot, Brother, Like,

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Speaker 3: not not a lot of guys are with you on

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Speaker 3: the taking the stand with Cleveland. And I think it's

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Speaker 3: the fear of the mare in this moxie of they

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Speaker 3: seem like a team that just gets up for it

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Speaker 3: this year, right, like the only real game we could

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Speaker 3: point to the game they've really disappointed this one game

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Speaker 3: the entire year. Well, I guess they a little bit

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Speaker 3: against Pittsburgh, But what's that Colts game? Right against Minshew?

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Speaker 3: They dominated Minshew. That Colts game they lost on a

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Speaker 3: last minute field goal against the Colts. For the most part,

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Speaker 3: the Ravens have been unflappable. But to come around you're

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Speaker 3: on the Cleveland pick, where it's like, isn't this why

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Speaker 3: we should take Cleveland. Then the again more pushback is

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Speaker 3: like just take the money line, Like that's that's what

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Speaker 3: you do, right, you take Cleveland's money line. But for

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Speaker 3: our contest doesn't help us. It's like, well would you

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Speaker 3: take the six and a half? So I've been asking

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Speaker 3: a lot of people and a lot of people are

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Speaker 3: just like, ah, I'd rather do something else.

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Speaker 1: So they were against us on Dallas, they were against

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Speaker 1: us on Philly when you know, you know.

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Speaker 3: Not all of them, but yeah, the Philly one was

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Speaker 3: more split. But yeah, that definitely definitely tough. And we

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Speaker 3: even talked about the Thursday game. Uh, you know a

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Speaker 3: lot of the guys love the Panthers. I feel like

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Speaker 3: we got really lucky. I feel lucky. I don't know

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Speaker 3: about you, but I bet the Panthers sticking this number

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Speaker 3: is too high because they they'd made it for Fields.

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Speaker 3: It comes out yesterday. Field isn't gonna play now, or

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Speaker 3: he's doubtful. This line has only moved half a point.

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Speaker 3: I can't. I still, I had no idea. You know,

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Speaker 3: I'm so glad we can't with Thursdays and it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: We're not even talking about it because like it's Thursday,

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Speaker 1: and by the time most people listen to this, that

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Speaker 1: game will be over.

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Speaker 4: I hate you. Then why are we doing?

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Speaker 3: Why are we doing Thursday shows at five in the

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Speaker 3: morning chats if people can listen before the Thursday night game,

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Speaker 3: damn you listen.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of the

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Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube, So for those enjoying on YouTube,

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Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the Action.

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Speaker 2: Network YouTube page.

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Speaker 1: We need to start a narrowing down our games, which

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Speaker 1: is why I'm cutting you off on the Bears and Panthers.

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Speaker 1: We've got to get to our foxhil We've got to

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Speaker 1: get to our Survivor pick.

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Speaker 2: We got to get to our big Balls bet of.

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Speaker 1: The week, which comes with a very special translation because

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Speaker 1: we are in Copenhagen. The games we talked about the

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Speaker 1: most this week. Simon, I'm glad that that we're gonna

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Speaker 1: We're gonna. I'm glad you talked about the Bengals. I'm

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Speaker 1: flipping around Matt and Tito in the order and the

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Speaker 1: script because I want to talk about the Bengals because

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Speaker 1: Simon was so passionate about it, And it ties up

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Speaker 1: with a stat that Evan has because in my notes

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Speaker 1: when I was going over sort of the past week

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Speaker 1: and getting ready for today, I was struck by how

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Speaker 1: passionate you were about the Bengals at six and a half,

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Speaker 1: and we knew the line had already moved like off

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Speaker 1: of the seven, which meant somebody felt really strongly about

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Speaker 1: the Texans to move to the keyboard. So you were

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Speaker 1: so passionate about the Bengals. And then like I immediately

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Speaker 1: bought in, I immediately bet it. When I was in Connecticut,

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Speaker 1: Evan has a stat this year the public sides. Normally

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Speaker 1: you want to bet against the public, right this year

293
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Speaker 1: the public seventy two, fifty four and five. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what that ats percentages. Even if you can you

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Speaker 1: can calculate that. But that's that's good, and that's better

296
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Speaker 1: than what it's been in the past, which is historically

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Speaker 1: a losing bet. This is the second best. This is

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Speaker 1: the best since twenty sixteen. So I'm with you on

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Speaker 1: the Bengals. You know what, You're my guy, as you

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Speaker 1: once beautifully said, You're my guy, and I support you.

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Speaker 2: But I'm also with you.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I don't know what happened.

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Speaker 3: I don't know why I was so passionate about the

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Speaker 3: Bengals on Tuesday. I must have hype myself up just

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Speaker 3: talking about this game. I don't know what happened. I

307
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Speaker 3: can't believe I made a six and a half point

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Speaker 3: favorite my Simon says play of the week, but I

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Speaker 3: stand by it. I still think this number is gonna

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Speaker 3: go to seven. You're right, though it's still seven's. It

311
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Speaker 3: moved to seven to a couple of books from the

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Speaker 3: six and a half, but for the most part, there's

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Speaker 3: still a bunch of six and a half.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: The fear, definitely for me, was coming in here. You know,

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Speaker 3: after the conversation I have with some pros that liked Houston,

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Speaker 3: I was like, if I wake up Thursday and one

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Speaker 3: of this is five and a half. I got to

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Speaker 3: make a big apology to all the fans, so thank

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Speaker 3: god it didn't drop a whole point down to five

321
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Speaker 3: and a half. I don't look like a total idiot,

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Speaker 3: but yeah, I just believe the splits are true. You know,

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Speaker 3: CJ is different on the road. Me and Chad did

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Speaker 3: a film Sash two weeks ago about the Cincinnati defense.

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Speaker 3: I think they're as much as I love what Joe

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Speaker 3: bro is doing, right, he is the difference maker. Obviously,

327
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Speaker 3: we see it with that team, Like when he moves

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Speaker 3: in the pocket, he can set that offense up. It's

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Speaker 3: the difference. But the defense has just been slept on

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Speaker 3: for Cincinnati for like three four years now, and they're

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Speaker 3: the reason, not just Joe, that they keep getting so

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Speaker 3: far into the playoffs win in their division. You know,

333
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,639
Speaker 3: if if this was Tomlin right or some other head coach,

334
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Speaker 3: would this good of a defense, We'd be going crazy, right,

335
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Speaker 3: being like this is a rookie on the road coming

336
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Speaker 3: into this team's home stadium. You know, I just I

337
00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:04,200
Speaker 3: just think this should be seven, seven and a half,

338
00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,040
Speaker 3: and the hype is the reason we're getting a nice

339
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Speaker 3: bump on this number dropping down to what it is.

340
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Speaker 3: So Chad's right, Like, normally I don't bet favorites really

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Speaker 3: like I'm a big dog better. This year, we've we've

342
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,200
Speaker 3: adjusted on the fly just because I noticed and week

343
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Speaker 3: I think week one we went two and three, and

344
00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:22,439
Speaker 3: then the week the week after that we might have

345
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 3: gone three and two, And it was just like the

346
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:27,320
Speaker 3: guy in lead was ten and zero, was all picking favorites,

347
00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 3: and I think I talked to Chat about this is

348
00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:32,080
Speaker 3: like we need to make an adjustment until it comes.

349
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Speaker 4: Back the other way.

350
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Speaker 3: So yeah, this year, I mean I think we're what

351
00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 3: sixty three percent for the season, this contest. I've just

352
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 3: been making tons of money ben favorites and these unders,

353
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Speaker 3: Like it's just been an incredible year. If you're been

354
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:48,160
Speaker 3: favorites and unders, and we talk all the time football,

355
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 3: it's like riding a wave and every wave after one

356
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,159
Speaker 3: another is going to be different, right, And that's what

357
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,439
Speaker 3: this season's been like. Every week it's a little different

358
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 3: but a little bit more of the same, right, Like

359
00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,120
Speaker 3: we keep seeing these talcky favorites.

360
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Speaker 4: You know, I talked to Chat.

361
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Speaker 3: One of my favorite memories, especially when I live back east,

362
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,399
Speaker 3: is this would have been a fun week for me

363
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:11,280
Speaker 3: to go to the sports book Sunday morning, because it

364
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,840
Speaker 3: would have been packed. Right, the Eagles had covered, the

365
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 3: Chiefs covered, these big time favorites, all these people betting them,

366
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,040
Speaker 3: all their like, all their big bets that came through

367
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:25,000
Speaker 3: the books will be packed this Sunday with all the

368
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,119
Speaker 3: chalk betters getting their tick, getting their money, re betting

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00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:28,960
Speaker 3: it everything like that.

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Speaker 4: And joke with Chad, I love these weeks.

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Speaker 3: I go, it's packed, you know, uh, the most bet

372
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:37,639
Speaker 3: teams of the week, oh and seven that week. And

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Speaker 3: then I show up the next Sunday and it's literally

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Speaker 3: me and three of their guys in the sports book

375
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Speaker 3: And that's just how it is. So yeah, the the

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Speaker 3: books are getting them fat before the holiday season. Me

377
00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 3: chatter faded them a little bit, right. We are on

378
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Speaker 3: the Jags and we talked a couple of games we're fading.

379
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's not like us to not be on

380
00:19:57,760 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 3: like the Chargers.

381
00:19:58,560 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 4: Again.

382
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,720
Speaker 3: Another good example this week of like me and Chad

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00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:03,679
Speaker 3: normally would blindly bet that, but this year has been

384
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,479
Speaker 3: a little different and I feel lucky where you know,

385
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:08,640
Speaker 3: last year I probably would have been, like you know what,

386
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,160
Speaker 3: Chargers plus two and a half minu or plus one

387
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,639
Speaker 3: at home. I'm gonna like them against Detroit, and we

388
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:17,720
Speaker 3: just know how the way the public's been betting and

389
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:22,680
Speaker 3: that numbers moved. So yeah, again, it's it's tough this week, Chad.

390
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna lie like I'm I'm trying not to

391
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Speaker 3: be scared off these favorites. I'm just trying to trust

392
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 3: the numbers, and so far, so good, right Detroit number.

393
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:33,640
Speaker 3: I feel like I'm not a total idiot even though

394
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Speaker 3: I took again, I get a lot of shit talk

395
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 3: from people, but I got a lot of heat for

396
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 3: liking Detroit. I mean, yeah, liking Detroit. And again feels

397
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Speaker 3: good waking up today and seeing us up to three,

398
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,680
Speaker 3: because you know, if this is down to one, it's

399
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 3: embarrassing like that, it would be embarrassing on the show

400
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 3: from me giving out a chalk favorite and the number

401
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 3: totally moves against us. So this this week, don't be

402
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 3: shocked me and chatting up on two or three favorites.

403
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Speaker 2: So it's funny.

404
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 1: Look, that's the beauty of betting, right is you get

405
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Speaker 1: to evolve, You get to look at what's fashioning on

406
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Speaker 1: the field. You're constantly learning when people talk about poker,

407
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 1: you know, and I know a lot of guys who

408
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 1: play professional poker, and you know, one of the biggest

409
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 1: stories I ever did for ESPN was about Phil Ivy

410
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,919
Speaker 1: and I went on this seventy two hour round the

411
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,359
Speaker 1: world gambling tour with Phil Ivy on his private jet

412
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 1: and we went from Connecticut to Montreal, to Amsterdam to

413
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:33,400
Speaker 1: Austria as he was gambling and ultimately playing poker in Austria.

414
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 2: And I love listening.

415
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Speaker 1: To poker players and sports betters generally earnestly and thoughtfully

416
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:43,880
Speaker 1: and authentically think about how much they learn about themselves

417
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,120
Speaker 1: and about markets and about decision making when talking about

418
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 1: this kind of thing. And I think betting the favorites

419
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Speaker 1: is one of the things that you have to think about.

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Speaker 2: You can't be so rigid. That's why I like that

421
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:56,880
Speaker 2: we sort of.

422
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,880
Speaker 1: Have been playing these games the public, by the way,

423
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 1: fift against the spread this year. So since he to me,

424
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna talk about this at the end

425
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 1: of the show signon, I went through and sort of

426
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,199
Speaker 1: did our preliminary list of five and since he to

427
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 1: me was still on it. So if we can get

428
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Speaker 1: the six and a half, I'm with you, brother, I'm

429
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Speaker 1: totally with you.

430
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 3: And we got we got a line change during the show.

431
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Speaker 4: Here a live movement.

432
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Speaker 3: Uh, the the Pros are back in the Ravens again.

433
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 3: Chat Cleveland up to six and a half now in

434
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 3: the action app at every book.

435
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:36,160
Speaker 1: So oh my god, Yeah, that's so strange.

436
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 2: All right, can we bounce a down again to do?

437
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell and Tito care if I go to the

438
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to the Ravens and the Browns then,

439
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 1: because like, look, this was we just talked about your

440
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 1: signon says, which was a weird game for us.

441
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:56,199
Speaker 2: Yes, shocked, Like I was wondering, this was my exact decision.

442
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:57,680
Speaker 3: The Pros like the Ravens.

443
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 1: Man, I don't know why this was, but in a

444
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 1: lot of what I'm seeing, it's a Pros Joe's game.

445
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 1: And like I'm seeing money on the Browns and tickets

446
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:11,399
Speaker 1: on the Ravens. So I've been surprised that money haven't

447
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 1: hasn't moved back down. So obviously there's some metrics that

448
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 1: are that are Ingestion isn't picking up and because somebody

449
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 1: likes the Ravens and now it's gone up and I

450
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: might have to I've already better at five, I better

451
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: at six. I'm gonna have to better it again at

452
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 1: six and a half. Still there when I get back

453
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 1: from Copenhagen. It doesn't make any sense to me. Home

454
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 1: teams in the division since twenty fifteen forty seven percent

455
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:43,719
Speaker 1: against the spread. Home favorites in the division since twenty fifteen,

456
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 1: forty five percent against the spread. There's a huge amount

457
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 1: of inflation on the Ravens because everyone thinks they're super

458
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 1: Bowl bound. They think they're the best, second best team

459
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 1: in the AFC, maybe better than the Chiefs. Like they

460
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 1: just beat up a team by thirty four points. You

461
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:03,160
Speaker 1: know what happens when you win a game by thirty

462
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 1: four points, the spread is inflated and you fade them.

463
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 2: This doesn't make any sense to me.

464
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not supposed to though. It's like, you know,

465
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 3: these pros, they lock on these teams and they've been

466
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 3: paying them out, like these guys. They've been backing. The

467
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 3: wise Guy's been back in the Ravens a lot this year.

468
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:28,439
Speaker 3: You know, I even know something that took them against

469
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:30,679
Speaker 3: Arizona right, and they were on the right side that

470
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 3: whole game until that last second field gout by Arizona,

471
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 3: and they view this team as there's always teams like

472
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 3: this that they peak at certain points of the season,

473
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 3: right like this is their peak of the season. For

474
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:47,439
Speaker 3: the Ravens, they're beating up on really good teams. And

475
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 3: the same exact thing happened last week, Chad. We saw

476
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 3: the Seahawks opened I believe a five five and a half.

477
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,199
Speaker 3: We talked about it the Sunday night we came in

478
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:58,160
Speaker 3: the Tuesday it was five and a half.

479
00:24:58,320 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 4: Six.

480
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 3: We talked about it even Thursday it was six, six

481
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,919
Speaker 3: and a half and comes Sunday that's that's what it

482
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 3: closed at six and a half for that Seattle team,

483
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 3: And I talked about I didn't even take the six

484
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:10,439
Speaker 3: and a half. I just took the money line in

485
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 3: Seattle because I had the same view of they'll either

486
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 3: win this game where they're gonna get crushed. It's starting

487
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 3: to feel the same here with Cleveland, where it's like,

488
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 3: if Watson shows up and he can play well, Cleveland

489
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 3: wins this game, right, But if if Watson of New

490
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,360
Speaker 3: shows up and he can't stop turning the ball over

491
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 3: and making terrible reads, even the Ravens defense will eat

492
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 3: him up. Like, this is not a defense that can

493
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 3: played around with. So yeah, I feel very fortunate because

494
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 3: I wanted to with Chad too, Like Sunday night, it

495
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 3: was hard for me not to take the five and

496
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:48,199
Speaker 3: a half feeling lucky that I've sat out in this

497
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,639
Speaker 3: Cleveland line just because it's not like it's one or

498
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 3: two book that moved it. It's every book has moved

499
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 3: to six and a half. That means a really smart

500
00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 3: group hit some book and every other book got word

501
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 3: like again, all these books talk to each other and

502
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 3: they moved off that hit. So, like Chad said, it

503
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 3: looks like in the app that allowed the money right

504
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 3: now is coming on Cleveland. But we talk all the time.

505
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 3: It could be five million dollars from a bunch of

506
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 3: really sharp, smart professionals. But if the right group comes

507
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:22,199
Speaker 3: in that moves markets and they put fifty k on

508
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 3: the Browns, the whole market will move off the bet.

509
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 3: There's I know people don't understand that stuff, but there

510
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:30,959
Speaker 3: are some just really highly respected people in the in

511
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 3: this in this world that I live in, and that

512
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 3: they do move numbers like this, And I'm with Chad,

513
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 3: I cannot believe this is up to six and a half.

514
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 3: That is crazy to me. So we'd love to give

515
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 3: out the Browns here, but I feel like we can

516
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,360
Speaker 3: keep waiting. Maybe this will go up to seven by

517
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 3: game time, just because it's a big deal with people

518
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 3: that it's already up to six and a half here

519
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 3: on Thursday. So yeah, it's I know it's one of

520
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:54,679
Speaker 3: your favorite games, Chad, but it's gonna it's gonna be

521
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:58,120
Speaker 3: tough for me to get this one in on Sunday,

522
00:26:59,119 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 3: you know.

523
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 1: When the show starts, and I was so confident of

524
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: what our five picks were going to be, like, it

525
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 1: was obvious to me San Francisco, visiting Jacksonville. Talked about

526
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 1: it on Sunday when it was a two and a half. Yeah,

527
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 1: talked about it on Tuesday at three. It's settled at

528
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: three Deebo, Samuel was playing Trot. Williams did not practice

529
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:25,439
Speaker 1: on Aday. Yeah, the act again. The metrics in the

530
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 1: app are telling us this is a pros Joe's game,

531
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 1: tickets on the Niners, money on the Jags. I actually

532
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 1: still feel really confident about this one.

533
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 4: Same Yeah, nothing for me.

534
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 2: We got one.

535
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 3: Yeah this you know, as always, there's always going to

536
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 3: be some pushback, but I think Chad just mentioned a big,

537
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 3: big deal to me here at Trent Williams if he

538
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 3: does not play, This is a huge deal for a

539
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 3: Jacks team that you know they don't have the best

540
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 3: pass rushers, but against a four nine ers team without

541
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 3: their best tackle that they can look a lot better, right,

542
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,360
Speaker 3: I mean, Josh Allen, that could be a big game

543
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:05,719
Speaker 3: for him now without Trent Williams in there. So not

544
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 3: gonna lie the fact that Deebo was back. I thought

545
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 3: for sure Trent would be back and that that would

546
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 3: scare me. Right, Purdy's got all his weapons, like we've

547
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 3: seen it, party has time and his weapons. The guy

548
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,440
Speaker 3: is a playoff winning quarterback, like you know, throw out

549
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,679
Speaker 3: the seventh round, mister relevant stuff. We've seen when Perdy

550
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 3: plays well. Another guy mean Chap broke down in film.

551
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 3: He's a really good cornerback, like when it's all there

552
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 3: and it's working. Perty is incredible. So the fact that

553
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 3: Trent Williams might still win miss this game, I didn't

554
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 3: even know that. That's a huge deal to me.

555
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't know they will. I just know

556
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: that he did in practice on Wednesday. I mean that's

557
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 1: usually a day.

558
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a big day, especially after a bye week

559
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 3: that he's still not practicing. So, like Chad said, though,

560
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: he is a veteran, so they could just be that

561
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 3: he doesn't need the practice. I mean, of all the

562
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 3: players in the team that doesn't need to practice, he's

563
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 3: one of them. Uh yeah, Obviously today's injury report, we

564
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 3: see what he's doing. If it's a DMP again, man,

565
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:03,720
Speaker 3: that's got to make you feel great.

566
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 4: So yeah, not.

567
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 3: Shocking to see the public on the forty nine ers,

568
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 3: but I am shocked to see that they're you know,

569
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 3: just after a bye week, they completely forget what this

570
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 3: team's done against you know, these past three weeks, the

571
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 3: fact they lost three in a row. Maybe that's the

572
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 3: reason they like him so much. But yeah, me and

573
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 3: Chad getting a home dog here with Doug Peterson, this

574
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 3: Jaguars team that we view as a top three, top

575
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 3: four team right now in the AFC, how do we

576
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 3: avoid this one? Like me and Chad, especially if this

577
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 3: is you know three and a half in contest, guarantee,

578
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 3: it's gonna be an ether two and a half. Though,

579
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 3: I really really feel confident still putting the Jags in,

580
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 3: So definitely a game we can't avoid this week.

581
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: So you brought up Minnesota and New Orleans. And I'll

582
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 1: be honest, this convo was now forty eight hours ago

583
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 1: and multiple time zones ago. When I was making my

584
00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 1: notes this morning, I had no recollection of why we

585
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 1: liked New Orleans. All my notes are about how lucky

586
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 1: this time this team was to beat the Bears. And

587
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 1: this is one of those games where New Orleans went

588
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 1: from dog to fay, which is a losing proposition.

589
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 2: Here's one more for you.

590
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 1: It teams to see the line move three points or

591
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 1: more away from them eighteen twenty seven and two against

592
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 1: the spread, fifty seven eighty seven and three since the

593
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 1: started last season. They're just a bad team, Like, I

594
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 1: don't know why we'd want to back them. Derek curR

595
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 1: and Dennis Allen are terrible as favorites.

596
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 3: No, I hate it. I hate everything about it. That's

597
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 3: why we got to do it though. That's what I

598
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 3: think we talked about on Tuesday, where it's like, who

599
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 3: doesn't want to bet Minnesota? It's a fun story, this

600
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 3: guy Dobbs. I told you it's all fun and good chat,

601
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 3: but I haven't gave us an amazing stat This guy

602
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 3: is one in nine straight up and his last ten

603
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 3: start stops like he is. There's a reason this man's

604
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 3: been on fourteen teams now and you know whatever it

605
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 3: is the last calendar year. The guy's a gamer. Like,

606
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna I'm not trying to shit on him,

607
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 3: but what can I do? I have to do it, Chad,

608
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,719
Speaker 3: this guy just had the win of his life. Like

609
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 3: they just had this crazy emotional win. Now they're coming

610
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 3: home and playing against the Saints team that Chad just

611
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 3: you just said it, right. They got lucky. They didn't

612
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 3: play that great of a game.

613
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 4: Terrible.

614
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 3: I feel the other way. I feel like they got

615
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 3: crazy unlucky. They had a missed field goal, they had

616
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 3: all these all these times down your guys red zone

617
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 3: where you know they they didn't come away with points.

618
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 3: And you know, the big thing for me though this

619
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,479
Speaker 3: the Saints team is the offense has found something here

620
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 3: at the Taysom Hill. The the problem I mean the

621
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 3: Saints was was the Chris Raybund stat about Derek Carr

622
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 3: in the red zone. He is the worst red zone

623
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 3: quarterback starter we've ever seen make like a minimum one

624
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 3: hundred starts. He is horrible, and I didn't know those

625
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 3: splits for that bad. Chris told us whatever that was

626
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 3: in August, and I went and looked and it's it's factual.

627
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 3: Like Derek Carr is one of the worst red zone

628
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 3: quarterbacks ever. Know who's one of the best scoring red

629
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 3: zone quarterbacks ever, Chad Taysom Hill. Like it's it's crazy,

630
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,719
Speaker 3: but it's going to change, yes, and shout out to

631
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 3: my guy, Baldy. Baldy breakdowns. He's basically in old school

632
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 3: O lineman who breaks down.

633
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: I know Brian Baldinger. People should know who Brian Baldinger is.

634
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is for the fans, not the esteemed in

635
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 3: media for thirty years Chad.

636
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 2: Millman, I mean all fans should.

637
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 3: But yeah, basically he's showing film. They're running plays. The

638
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 3: Saints are running plays with Taysom Hill quarterback from nineteen

639
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 3: thirty two. Like I'm not joking, Like you can. They

640
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 3: put it out side by side film footage of them

641
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 3: running this quarterback run where the quarterback basically is back

642
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 3: there with the full back next to them. They break

643
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 3: out running to the left and it's literally this playoffs

644
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 3: from the nineteen thirties and it's working right. They're picking

645
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 3: up eight nine yards a trunk against a lot of

646
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 3: these defenses because they run what everyone runs the league now,

647
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 3: which is a two linebacker Look right, they're going four

648
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 3: and down linemen, two linebackers, and the rest are dbs.

649
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 3: That's a huge advantage for New Orleans Saints and Taysom Hill, right,

650
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 3: if he can do that in those games, they found

651
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 3: something there, and I think this past week he had

652
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 3: a rushing touchdown and had a receiving touchdown in the

653
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 3: red zone. That's a big deal to the Saints team,

654
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 3: especially against a Vikings defense that's horrible, Like this is

655
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 3: a defense that gives up a lot of yards and

656
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 3: a lot of points. I know that, you know, people

657
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 3: might still think back to that Vikings against the forty

658
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 3: nine ers game, how well they played and everything like that.

659
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's not throwing me off the stank of

660
00:33:58,680 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 3: this Vikings defense.

661
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 4: I'm with you, Chad.

662
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 3: If this in our contest is three and a half,

663
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 3: I wouldn't do it. But my view is if this

664
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 3: is two and a half in the contest, I don't

665
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:09,360
Speaker 3: know how I don't get it in there. It's just

666
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 3: it's scary. All the Derek carrs, Dennis Allen. They're horrible

667
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 3: as favorites, both of them. They're horrible as favorites. This year,

668
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 3: they've been horrible as favorites. I forget what week it was.

669
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 3: Me and Chad had the Saints versus Green Bay and

670
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 3: we had the plus one and a half on the Saints,

671
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 3: and Chad just talked about by by game time the

672
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 3: line had flipped and the Saints from minus two and

673
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 3: a half the game lands on one. And yeah, I

674
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:36,759
Speaker 3: know Derek Carr got hurt in the game, anything like that.

675
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 3: But Chad talks all the time about, you know, how

676
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 3: lucky sometimes we get and we do not lucky, but

677
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 3: how important the best number is and I push it,

678
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 3: I push it back against it sometimes. But right there

679
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 3: he nailed it, Like we got lucky, landed on the

680
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:52,439
Speaker 3: one and a half. We take it earlier in the week.

681
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:56,280
Speaker 3: That's the only fear here with me, is what Chad's

682
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 3: talking about. Like the numbers moved a lot. That's not

683
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 3: good historically, especially when you have a guy like Dennis Allen,

684
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 3: Derek Carr, Like that's just bad. So I'm not.

685
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:06,360
Speaker 4: Gonna make it.

686
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:07,800
Speaker 3: Our bigs ball is better the week, even though it

687
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 3: feels like it's taking the most balls because I hate

688
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 3: those stats. Like Chad said, I had confidence in this

689
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 3: game until he started hitting with these stats from Evan.

690
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 4: God damn, but I gotta do it.

691
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 3: Dobbs, dobbs, this should be three and a half, like

692
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 3: the Vikings team is just there's not this. This line

693
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 3: feels inflated because they had this incredible last second win.

694
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 3: I mean, if they would have lost that game, Chad,

695
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 3: it came down to one or two players. If they

696
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 3: would have lost that game, what is this number? Is

697
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 3: it three and a half? Is it four? So it

698
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,760
Speaker 3: just feels like I have to take the Saints value

699
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 3: not to overthink this one and again, if this is

700
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 3: two and a half, I'm gonna get my hands on

701
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 3: Chad's I'm gonna say, we gotta get this in and

702
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 3: we'll see what he.

703
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 4: Does with it.

704
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 1: We haven't done big balls, we haven't done Foxhole. There's

705
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 1: a couple more games that we got to discuss. Okay,

706
00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:01,360
Speaker 1: I do I do kind of feel like we should

707
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:05,760
Speaker 1: make the Browns big balls because clearly it's taking big balls.

708
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 3: No, Chad, don't do it, and we can do it,

709
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 3: but you got to wear it. I don't know what

710
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 3: to do with that one?

711
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 1: When when am I afraid to wear it? When have

712
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 1: I ever been afraid to take on the mantle of responsibility?

713
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 1: My whole life is responsibility.

714
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 3: It's just I mean, you took it a five and

715
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 3: a half. It's up to six and a half. Like

716
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 3: I know, I told you, if you're really believe in yourself,

717
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 3: you believe in the number, go against it.

718
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 4: But I don't know.

719
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:40,320
Speaker 3: Man, It's November now, Chad.

720
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 2: What happened to you and my guy? I support you?

721
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 2: What happened to that guy?

722
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 3: I'm supporting you. I didn't bet. I didn't back the Ravens.

723
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 3: I'm not telling people take the Ravens. I'm trying to

724
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 3: I'm trying to protect our fames.

725
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:52,839
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, all right, let's finish it. We're

726
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 1: going to put a pin in this one because we

727
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:57,279
Speaker 1: do have to choose one. But we'll finish it and

728
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 1: see if there's something else that we can agree on signing.

729
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 2: Let me ask you this. Can you name the fastest

730
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 2: growing ticketing app in the United States?

731
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 4: Game Time?

732
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game

733
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One they sponsor this show. Number Two,

734
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got

735
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including

736
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:23,240
Speaker 1: pro and college football games, speaking of which, I'm actually

737
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:26,720
Speaker 1: going to open game Time right now from my house. Well,

738
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: the truth is I'm doing it from our studio here

739
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 1: in Copenhagen, all right.

740
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 2: The truth is.

741
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 1: I'm not even opening it right now because I can't

742
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 1: because we can't access game Time in Copenhagen. But I cheated,

743
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:39,320
Speaker 1: and before we came out on the air, I checked.

744
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 1: You can get into a Chicago Bears football game tonight

745
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 1: for less than eighty five bucks. That's right, I checked.

746
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,479
Speaker 1: My favorite city in the world to watch my favorite team.

747
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 1: Will break somebody's heart no.

748
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 2: Matter where you live.

749
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 1: Download the game Time app, get out and have some

750
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 1: fun this week. Go sweat your bets live and in person,

751
00:37:57,600 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 1: and you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off.

752
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 1: First purchase terms apply again. Just download the app and

753
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:06,959
Speaker 1: enterko Favorites for twenty dollars off. That's myen ticket's lowest

754
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 1: price guarantee. For the record, I took the Packers Steelers

755
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 1: game off our list because I think we're both a

756
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 1: little scooped by not just the sharp action coming in

757
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:23,799
Speaker 1: on the Packers, but the Luck Rankings, which is just

758
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 1: you know, it's a bad Tomlin spot. It's Kenny Pickett,

759
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 1: it's the Packers getting all the sharp action. It's Luck

760
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 1: Rankings loving the Packers in this spot.

761
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 4: I took that first half under, first half under.

762
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 1: Actually Raybund talked about Raybund last week on the Action

763
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,439
Speaker 1: Net Were Podcast, talked about the Packers and Rams under

764
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 1: nineteen and a half and on today's episode his favorite

765
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 1: total Steelers and Packers under nineteen and a half. Simon

766
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: just said to you, I mean, you didn't proably don't

767
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,920
Speaker 1: hear the show, but you guys are spatoco, So yeah,

768
00:38:56,120 --> 00:39:00,080
Speaker 1: just do that. I'm taking the Lions out because I

769
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 1: think that number is probably gonna be a three and

770
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,799
Speaker 1: a half. So we probably won't want to do that

771
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 1: because it will have moved too much. What about what

772
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:13,919
Speaker 1: about Tennessee in the Bucks, It's like it's plus one.

773
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:19,839
Speaker 1: It's not a great number. Yeah, it's a raable spot. Uh.

774
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 1: The Bucks defense passing defense is terrible. We've seen enough

775
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:26,360
Speaker 1: from Levis against a good defense and a bad defense.

776
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:30,839
Speaker 1: I think that he's serviceable at least but we'll running

777
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 1: around of options here.

778
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 3: I got I can get you. I can get you

779
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 3: there if we need five. If you don't feel confident, five,

780
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 3: I got five.

781
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 4: I do believe him.

782
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 3: But yeah, if Tennessee is one of your games, man,

783
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 3: we can get in there. I just got no read

784
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:46,439
Speaker 3: on it, Like I.

785
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 2: Don't don't want it to be one of my games.

786
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 1: But we did talk about it last week, and we've

787
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 1: eliminated some other games that we were feeling good about.

788
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm not gonna lie though, I still

789
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,800
Speaker 3: feel good about Pittsburgh. But I get where you're coming from.

790
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 3: But yeah, this this one, you.

791
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 1: Know, here's my thing. If Pittsburgh's a two and a

792
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 1: half in the contest, I'm with you. I just I

793
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 1: feel like they're gonna make it three and a half.

794
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, No, Honestly, the part I hate about it

795
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 3: is just how much money has come in. All the

796
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 3: all the tickets, all the bets are on Pittsburgh. And

797
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 3: like you said, you know, I saw it pop at

798
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 3: three and a half Monday morning, and then some real

799
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:28,919
Speaker 3: sharp money came in and hit it down to three

800
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 3: and now it's just been holding there three all week.

801
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 3: Never ideal if you're you're for betting a favorite. But yeah, this,

802
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 3: this Tennessee, This Tennessee game feels like the New England game. Right,

803
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:42,879
Speaker 3: New England are playing the Colts in Germany. It feels

804
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 3: like I should be back in New England. And this

805
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:47,920
Speaker 3: feels the same here with Tennessee, where it's like we

806
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 3: have a coaching advantage in Tennessee. Right, he is much

807
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 3: better than Todder Bowles and we're catching Tennessee here after

808
00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 3: a loss and now extended rest, which you know, I

809
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 3: think Evan gave us a stat earlier in the year

810
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 3: about Vrabel with extended rest. I believe it was that

811
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 3: it was favorable towards Rabel will Levis, you know, as

812
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 3: much as I want to give the kid a hard

813
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:14,360
Speaker 3: time because how lucky he got in his first start

814
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 3: that game against Pittsburgh, he made some throws that you know,

815
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 3: we've never seen Zach, I guess that's not fair to

816
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,799
Speaker 3: Zach Wilson. I hate beating up on him, but it's

817
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:26,359
Speaker 3: just a classic. You know, you know when you know, right,

818
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 3: when you see a kid out there, you kind of

819
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,239
Speaker 3: know what they're gonna be, right. I have no idea

820
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,239
Speaker 3: if what love is gonna be a good quarterback. But

821
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 3: I know he's given himself at least three years now,

822
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 3: like where Tennessee will give him three years now. Because

823
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 3: these last two starts, the fact they're already sitting Tannehill,

824
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 3: that's a big deal. Like the fact that he's healthy

825
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 3: and they've already said no, like we're riding with Will

826
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,880
Speaker 3: the rest of the season, that's a big deal. Like

827
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:53,320
Speaker 3: the kid's clearly shown something are rabel in their front office,

828
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:57,439
Speaker 3: So I guess I'll get there with you, Chad.

829
00:41:57,480 --> 00:41:57,879
Speaker 4: It's just.

830
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 3: I just hate the number. It's like if this was

831
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:06,320
Speaker 3: two and a half auto play automatic play contest, it

832
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 3: would be one and a half, which again we like

833
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 3: rambles a dog. It's just not crazy great.

834
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 2: Value contest might be a half to be honest.

835
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 4: So again, yeah, that's true.

836
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 1: Again, there's there's games here we're gonna look and after

837
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 1: the show we're gonna we're gonna look at them.

838
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 2: Washington at Seattle minus six. I know where you're here.

839
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 1: From the wise guys, we know Ron Rivera is really

840
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 1: good against the spread as an underdog. Sam Howell, second

841
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 1: in the NFL in passing yards this year, has more

842
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:40,840
Speaker 1: touchdown passes than Justin Herbert Dak Prescott or Jared Goff.

843
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 1: I know what the wise guys are saying. This is

844
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:50,439
Speaker 1: a Seattle spot. You back the team that just got

845
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 1: demolished teams to lose by twenty points or more of

846
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:57,240
Speaker 1: the previous week, facing a team that didn't sixty against

847
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 1: the spreads in north of one hundred in almost one

848
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,799
Speaker 1: hundred and forty games since twenty twenty. This is not

849
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 1: a small sample. This is not a good Washington team.

850
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 1: Don't forget. It's a team that beat the Patriots, had

851
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 1: a nice little dead cat bounce after losing Chase Young

852
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:19,359
Speaker 1: and Montes sweat. You come back down to earth when

853
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 1: you're traveling across the country playing a team that is

854
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 1: better than you that just got demolished there. I don't

855
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 1: want to overthink this.

856
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:32,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not gonna fight you on it. I had

857
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 3: no real opinion on it. I just thought the number

858
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 3: was fishy, and then I kind of liked Washington and

859
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 3: I didn't get why this was in seven. There are

860
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 3: some sevens popping up at a couple of books, which

861
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:45,760
Speaker 3: makes me feel a little better if Chad likes Seattle

862
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 3: this much. But I don't know what to deal with it,

863
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 3: Like I just think I think Seattle's defense are kind

864
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 3: of fraudulent, man, And that's a big it's a big number,

865
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:59,439
Speaker 3: Like you have to dominate a team to cover this number, right,

866
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 3: this is this is a big number. And especially if

867
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 3: it's seven like that, that's crazy. There's some sevens out

868
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 3: there popping. So yeah, I'm looking in the app right now,

869
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 3: all the tickets, all the money, it's it's all Seattle.

870
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 3: I think everyone's in agreement with you that Washington got

871
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:20,359
Speaker 3: They got their big road win. They don't need back

872
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 3: to back ones, right, They're not gonna be the Hungary's

873
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 3: team in the world, but I view them as they

874
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:28,839
Speaker 3: got lucky. Like Sam Hobbe did not play well last

875
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:32,799
Speaker 3: week against the Patriots, and you know that was kind

876
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 3: of a mac Jones gave him that win, right, He

877
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 3: made these big mistakes. He kept screwing up on crucial

878
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:43,399
Speaker 3: downs that kept Washington in that game. So I want

879
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 3: to get there with you chat on Seattle. It's just

880
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 3: it's just tough for me right now.

881
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:50,439
Speaker 1: I just when you say to me, when you say

882
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 1: to me you want to get there, I feel like

883
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,479
Speaker 1: you're there. And there's a little bit of wise guy

884
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 1: community in the back of your head, and I feel

885
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 1: like we're gonna get there. When we're staring at the

886
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 1: numb and we know what's in front of us, We're

887
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:03,880
Speaker 1: going to get there. You know where else We're going

888
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:07,799
Speaker 1: to get there. Denver Broncos plus seven and a half

889
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 1: against the Buffalo Bills.

890
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 3: What do you want to do with this one? You

891
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 3: love this one that much.

892
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:19,760
Speaker 2: I don't understand why you don't.

893
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 3: Because this feels too easy. This number does not make sense.

894
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:23,240
Speaker 3: This number should be six.

895
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:26,080
Speaker 2: Why hasn't this line moved? It's another one.

896
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 3: It's moving, it's moving. I literally just texted the air

897
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:31,399
Speaker 3: Runners have you seen any you see? Are you still

898
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:33,239
Speaker 3: seeing sevens out there? And he just texted me back.

899
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 4: Yeah.

900
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,760
Speaker 3: So a couple of books have obviously moved this to seven.

901
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 3: I don't know if it says in the app yet,

902
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 3: but yeah, it's number does not make sense. The Bills

903
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 3: are so banged up defensively. You know, Josh Allen is

904
00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 3: having to be what he is, which is a top

905
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 3: three quarterback, just to keep them in these games. I

906
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:56,320
Speaker 3: know people don't think it. They're like, well, Josh Allen's

907
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 3: been bad this year. If you go look at it.

908
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 3: They're I think they're fourth DVLA in a weighted offensive

909
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 3: adjustment like this, this team has played really well offensively

910
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 3: despite the turnovers from Josh Allen and you know, some

911
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 3: some crazy stat like because he runs the ball, he

912
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,280
Speaker 3: accounts for like seventy five percent of their total offense

913
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 3: this season, which this is exactly what they didn't want.

914
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 3: This is exactly what he didn't want himself. It's just

915
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 3: you can't last the full season. Like, I just don't

916
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 3: know how he's gonna last playing this way. And Chad

917
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 3: talked about a Denver's defense has been much better than

918
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 3: people perceive these last couple of weeks and maybe, you.

919
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 4: Know, maybe we put too much into.

920
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 3: Mahomes having the flu, right, Like I kind of dismissed

921
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 3: a little bit, which I should know, of this Denver

922
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:51,520
Speaker 3: defense and how well they played against the Chiefs. You know,

923
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 3: that was probably a little too harsh. But yeah, I

924
00:46:55,800 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 3: just I don't get this number. It's it's stinked. Why

925
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:01,839
Speaker 3: are they giving a seven and a half. I say

926
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 3: all the time, the books are not our friends, but

927
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 3: maybe they're just misjudging the Stummer And Chad's right, and

928
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,759
Speaker 3: like we have to take the value here, But are

929
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 3: we really gonna wait until another Monday for our picks?

930
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 4: I hated that this week with those are the jets

931
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:17,919
Speaker 4: we had.

932
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,399
Speaker 3: On the Monday night. That was just too much. So yeah,

933
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 3: it's all fun and good seeing. We'll take it here,

934
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 3: but I don't know if I can do it again. Wait,

935
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:26,839
Speaker 3: wait until the Monday night with it. It's too much day.

936
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 2: Come Monday, you know we're going to be singing.

937
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 1: Just another manic Monday. Wish it was Sunday. All right,

938
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:38,399
Speaker 1: well we'll talk about that one.

939
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 3: You really like that Denver one though.

940
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:46,440
Speaker 2: I do. I do, But I also love the Browns.

941
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:53,240
Speaker 3: So you love these road dogs you don't like Washington.

942
00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:57,400
Speaker 2: Interesting, Well, I think there's such a difference. Washington's not

943
00:47:57,440 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 2: a very good team. I like a road dog that

944
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 2: has been that's true.

945
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 1: That has the most dominant not just defensive player, one

946
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 1: of the most dominant players in the division.

947
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 2: With a great defense.

948
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:11,400
Speaker 4: We have more line changing.

949
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 3: The Bears are now back up almost at every book

950
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:17,240
Speaker 3: the three and a half, So the pro the pros

951
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 3: like the Bears.

952
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 1: All right, we need a big balls, my friend and

953
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 1: so in Foxhole and a foxhole to me like we

954
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 1: have so many options.

955
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 3: Because we didn't talk about a game. I'm shocked you

956
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:32,360
Speaker 3: didn't talk about which one.

957
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 4: The goddamn Jets.

958
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:39,880
Speaker 1: Let's make the Jets big balls, big ball better the week.

959
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:46,800
Speaker 2: Or as they say in Danish store, NASA suffer.

960
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 3: Jets are now plus one at our sponsored book bet

961
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 3: three six five. So I told the people who was

962
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:58,400
Speaker 3: going to do it. I'm obviously not static right now.

963
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 3: There they have another offensive lineman might miss this game,

964
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:04,919
Speaker 3: and that is nightmare fuel for Max Crosby and thinking

965
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:09,839
Speaker 3: about what he can do this offensive line. But oh man,

966
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 3: how do we not back this Jets defense against the

967
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 3: Raiders offense? Right, Aidan O'Connell. We've seen these quarterbacks struggle

968
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 3: against this Jets defense, and you assume more of the same, right,

969
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:24,479
Speaker 3: And what do you keep saying?

970
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 4: The dead count, dead cat.

971
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 2: Bounce, dead cat bounce, cat bounce.

972
00:49:29,440 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 3: So that was last week, right, The Raiders had that

973
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 3: high of highs, and just like the Vikings, I'm kind

974
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 3: of expecting a big letdown and you know, we could

975
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:43,359
Speaker 3: get caught here. Right, The Raiders could still have some

976
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 3: incredible momentum that's still carrying them, and the Jets could

977
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 3: be completely defeated after that game, and it's a short week,

978
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:54,600
Speaker 3: they're traveling, and I get a lot of the pushback

979
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:56,840
Speaker 3: we've gotten from the fans of the show this past

980
00:49:56,840 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 3: week about the Jets team, But how do.

981
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 4: You not love them?

982
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 3: People Like, this is a team that you know they had,

983
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 3: They were the most, they were the unluckiest team in football.

984
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:12,399
Speaker 3: This past week we gave that stat no team had

985
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:15,360
Speaker 3: ever lost by twenty when they held a team's offense

986
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:18,440
Speaker 3: under two hundred yards. And you know, this is just

987
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 3: it's hard for me, honestly, Like I don't want to

988
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 3: be taking this either with this Jets team, but I

989
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 3: got to stick true to what I believe in and

990
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 3: that this is an overreaction too much line movement towards

991
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 3: the Raiders. The Jets should be favored in this game.

992
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 3: So the fact that now it's it's popping the plus

993
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 3: one if you want a way to understand it, because

994
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:39,360
Speaker 3: I could, I could totally see this keep going up,

995
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:42,279
Speaker 3: especially with the injury news we just got about the Jets.

996
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:45,320
Speaker 3: But I don't know, Chad, if this is one and

997
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 3: a half in contest, how is this not end up

998
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:49,359
Speaker 3: as one of our five? This is just such such

999
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 3: crazy movement for this game. And you know, Evan gave

1000
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:54,439
Speaker 3: us that stat. These these teams that go from being

1001
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:57,319
Speaker 3: the dog to the favorites, it's historically not good for him.

1002
00:50:57,480 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 3: So it'll be nice for us for the one time

1003
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:01,920
Speaker 3: to be on the side of these dogs. So yeah,

1004
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:02,759
Speaker 3: I like the Jets here.

1005
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:07,279
Speaker 1: Speaking of which, we still need a foxhole. I think

1006
00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 1: Denver should be the foxhole. There's one other game that

1007
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 1: can be the foxhole, but which is New Orleans.

1008
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:15,960
Speaker 4: That is fox sanguage.

1009
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:19,920
Speaker 3: Let's see, it is still minus two and a half

1010
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:22,839
Speaker 3: at bet three six five the Saints.

1011
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:25,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna We're gonna lose that game because of

1012
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 1: all because it's Dennis Allen, is Derek Carr, it's all

1013
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:30,680
Speaker 1: the trends against us.

1014
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:32,240
Speaker 2: We can make the foxhole.

1015
00:51:32,320 --> 00:51:33,880
Speaker 3: We're gonna have to pick one. You're gonna have to

1016
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 3: have the Saints in or the Jets. And I know

1017
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:36,960
Speaker 3: you hate it, but one of these are gonna be

1018
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 3: one our five.

1019
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:39,920
Speaker 2: Oh my god, it's so much rather to put the

1020
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 2: Jets in.

1021
00:51:42,239 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 4: All right, better coach.

1022
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 1: With a great defense against a really bad team that

1023
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:54,759
Speaker 1: no Taysom Hell though, no Taysom Hill. We don't have

1024
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 1: a nineteen thirty two offense.

1025
00:51:58,239 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 4: It's tough week.

1026
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:01,399
Speaker 3: You picked a bad to go to copenhang and chat.

1027
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:02,600
Speaker 3: I need you hear in the States.

1028
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:04,360
Speaker 2: What does that have to do with anything.

1029
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:06,920
Speaker 3: I'm just joking. It's the same people giving me a

1030
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 3: shit for being in Hawaii. That was my favorite thing

1031
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 3: in week one. People are like you and Chad don't

1032
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:14,000
Speaker 3: care anymore. You're You're living a big in Hawaii. It's like, guys,

1033
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 3: all I do in my free time is play poker

1034
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:19,360
Speaker 3: and risk. There's nothing exciting going on here in Hawaii.

1035
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:21,399
Speaker 3: Like you don't want to know what I'm doing during

1036
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:21,760
Speaker 3: the season.

1037
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:25,440
Speaker 4: So all right, listen, how about this Jaguars foxhil.

1038
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

1039
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 3: Foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to

1040
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:29,959
Speaker 3: a city.

1041
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 4: I'm a Foxhole guy.

1042
00:52:31,640 --> 00:52:35,400
Speaker 1: Great done, Jaggs Is we both love that one. Yeah,

1043
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 1: Jaggs is the Foxhole Jets is big balls.

1044
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:38,919
Speaker 4: We got there.

1045
00:52:39,520 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 1: Simon and I typically enter our initial picks into the

1046
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:45,759
Speaker 1: contest website on Thursdays after the show, So if you

1047
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:48,239
Speaker 1: want to see the unofficial picks we've entered in the

1048
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 1: contest before they lock, you can just go to the

1049
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 1: website for the contest favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com search

1050
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 1: for the faveseline.

1051
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 2: That's us.

1052
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:59,479
Speaker 1: We typically have these picks in by Thursday night before

1053
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:02,479
Speaker 1: we get to the line. Underdog Round Robin, the week

1054
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:06,280
Speaker 1: ten contest tiebreaker total passing yards on Monday night Football.

1055
00:53:06,719 --> 00:53:09,320
Speaker 1: Billy Ward, our Action Network Predicted analyst writes a weekly

1056
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 1: article about typebreater strategy, and a link to that article

1057
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 1: can be found in this episode description. If you want

1058
00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:16,400
Speaker 1: a leg up in the contest, good luck. Here's what

1059
00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:18,680
Speaker 1: I think should be our money line Underdog Round Robin.

1060
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 2: Are you ready?

1061
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:25,840
Speaker 4: Dog blocks your dog? Your dog blocks dog?

1062
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:34,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, Jags love it, Jets love it, Browns love it.

1063
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:35,440
Speaker 4: How about Mannesota?

1064
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:38,840
Speaker 2: All right? And then I was gonna say the Broncos.

1065
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:43,319
Speaker 3: Who that would be fucking crazy. Yeah, I'll go with

1066
00:53:43,360 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 3: you on that. That's fun. Denver, dude.

1067
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:48,680
Speaker 2: I know, like, I'm so sad for Matt Mitchell because

1068
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 2: he'll be tired, but.

1069
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 3: I can't I can't see it, but I'll back it

1070
00:53:54,719 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 3: and I'll bet it because it's fun.

1071
00:53:57,080 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 1: Let's make Let's make Little Caesars, which is the pizza

1072
00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:03,120
Speaker 1: sponsor in the NFL. Part of your game day, Simon,

1073
00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:06,400
Speaker 1: were in mid November. This Thanksgiving, should everyone start replacing

1074
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:10,719
Speaker 1: Turkey with Little Caesars Pizza? Yes, order online during our

1075
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:13,759
Speaker 1: Pizza Pizza pre game one hour before NFL games and

1076
00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:16,000
Speaker 1: get ready for some football and fun. She's your favorite

1077
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 1: Little Caesar's Pizza or pick the topics you crave. My friend, Simon,

1078
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 1: what do you think about this new motto I just invented.

1079
00:54:24,520 --> 00:54:25,319
Speaker 4: It's on the fly.

1080
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 2: If pizza fills your heart with lust, be sure to

1081
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 2: order Crazy Crust. However you order your pizza, you win.

1082
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or

1083
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 1: our in.

1084
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:45,279
Speaker 2: Store pizza portal pickup. So grab some friends and enjoy

1085
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:49,880
Speaker 2: a few slices during the game. It's the Survivorpool pick

1086
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 2: of the week.

1087
00:54:57,719 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 1: Last week we did the Browns and the Saints for Survivor.

1088
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:02,640
Speaker 1: Have we done Seattle?

1089
00:55:03,360 --> 00:55:06,680
Speaker 3: I have done Seattle. Yeah, we've We've had a great run.

1090
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 4: This week.

1091
00:55:08,480 --> 00:55:11,360
Speaker 3: You know lines up perfectly for us. We still got Dallas.

1092
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:14,640
Speaker 3: Like I didn't use Dallas the Cardinals. A lot of

1093
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:17,840
Speaker 3: people got knocked out. That did. If you've been following

1094
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 3: us every week and you're still with me.

1095
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:22,400
Speaker 4: I'm feeling good.

1096
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:24,279
Speaker 3: This year, Like usually, I don't feel great about the

1097
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:28,600
Speaker 3: survivor pools. Uh, if you've been following the season, We've

1098
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:31,720
Speaker 3: used the Giants, We've used Washington, we used the Browns,

1099
00:55:31,719 --> 00:55:33,920
Speaker 3: we use the Chargers, we use Seattle, and we use

1100
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:36,520
Speaker 3: the Bills. It feels so good knowing don't have to

1101
00:55:36,560 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 3: use those teams again, especially the Bills, Like it's great

1102
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 3: to know we already got that done with so easy

1103
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 3: week layup. Pick Dallas, man, if you've got to make

1104
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 3: a tough choice, I mean, Chad's not crazy saying Seattle

1105
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:55,200
Speaker 3: like Houston. I mean Houston. Uh, They're not as desperate

1106
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:57,680
Speaker 3: Washington in that game, right, Seattle is gonna be the

1107
00:55:57,680 --> 00:55:58,799
Speaker 3: more desperate team at home.

1108
00:55:58,840 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 4: They need that win.

1109
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:02,879
Speaker 3: Don't hate Chad using that as a as a as

1110
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,319
Speaker 3: a as a throwing because it is a tough week.

1111
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 3: If you don't have Dallas, your only real options are

1112
00:56:08,160 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 3: Cincy against the rook or Seattle, And that's tough.

1113
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:14,840
Speaker 4: I looked at it since he thinking.

1114
00:56:14,640 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 3: About using them, just because you know they are in

1115
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 3: the best division of football right now and this this

1116
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 3: would be technically a really nice spot to take Cincy.

1117
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:24,440
Speaker 3: But if you've been founding this show for three four years.

1118
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 3: Every year me and Chad lose on Dallas and we

1119
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:31,320
Speaker 3: always lose in these exact scenarios. How is this possible?

1120
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:32,960
Speaker 3: How is I'm trying to figure out a way Tommy

1121
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 3: DeVito ruins this for me and I just can't find it.

1122
00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:39,840
Speaker 3: Dallas coming off a loss at home against this kid.

1123
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 4: You gotta do with people?

1124
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:43,200
Speaker 3: What do you say in Dallas for you have to

1125
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:44,880
Speaker 3: use them this week if you still got them?

1126
00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:48,960
Speaker 2: Or Seattle by a million? Hey signing? What what are

1127
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:50,120
Speaker 2: your biggest bets this week?

1128
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:55,880
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm embarrassed to say it, but one of

1129
00:56:55,880 --> 00:56:58,680
Speaker 3: them right now is the Lions. Like I heavily invested

1130
00:56:58,719 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 3: in that I want one and a half half to

1131
00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:09,160
Speaker 3: two and a half. Heavily invested in Cincy? Uh? Shit, man?

1132
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:12,160
Speaker 3: What is wrong with me this week? Have a decent

1133
00:57:12,200 --> 00:57:17,480
Speaker 3: amount on the Jaguars A plus three that's more more normal. Uh,

1134
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,160
Speaker 3: have a way too much money I care to admit

1135
00:57:20,520 --> 00:57:22,320
Speaker 3: on New Orleans of minus two and a half.

1136
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:23,600
Speaker 4: Uh.

1137
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:26,200
Speaker 3: And I was Pittsburgh was gonna be one of those.

1138
00:57:26,240 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 3: But again our guy Nick when he gave me those

1139
00:57:30,040 --> 00:57:32,080
Speaker 3: luck rankings, I'm with Chad, it's not good. It's not

1140
00:57:32,080 --> 00:57:33,560
Speaker 3: the end all be all for me, but it does

1141
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:36,160
Speaker 3: make me stop and Paul's because it is profitable and

1142
00:57:36,160 --> 00:57:38,520
Speaker 3: we've seen the data that it wins long term the

1143
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 3: luck rankings. So I wanted to fade Green Bay so

1144
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:45,200
Speaker 3: bad after that win and Jordan Love on the road.

1145
00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:48,600
Speaker 3: It's all sitting there, but I'm gonna I'm gonna be

1146
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 3: trying to be smart, not go overboard and go crazy

1147
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:54,600
Speaker 3: on the Pittsburgh one. So yeah, that's that's no longer.

1148
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 3: One of my bigger bets of the.

1149
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:58,480
Speaker 1: Week as a reminder of the favorite podcast, is presented

1150
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Speaker 1: by bet three six five three Ordinary. That's why you

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Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or

1160
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Speaker 1: Virginia or eighteen and older. In Kentucky gambling problem call

1161
00:58:32,760 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off.

1162
00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 1: In Iowa terms, conditions restrictions apply. Before we get out

1163
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:42,720
Speaker 1: of here, the last word from Evan Abrams, our director

1164
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:45,440
Speaker 1: of research, the engine behind the stats and nuggets you

1165
00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 1: hear on the show across our network.

1166
00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:48,920
Speaker 2: Take it away, Evan.

1167
00:58:49,360 --> 00:58:52,520
Speaker 3: The last word with Evan Abrams.

1168
00:58:53,160 --> 00:58:55,280
Speaker 2: We're finished talking up, guys.

1169
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 5: So I just got to apologize before I go into

1170
00:58:58,080 --> 00:59:00,960
Speaker 5: this because you know a lot of stats that.

1171
00:59:00,920 --> 00:59:01,479
Speaker 3: We go through.

1172
00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 5: Me and our producer Matt Mitchell trying to figure out

1173
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 5: what to go with here, and I'm not going to

1174
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:08,360
Speaker 5: change it. I've heard everything that's happened in this show,

1175
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:09,880
Speaker 5: so you guys are just gonna have to hear the

1176
00:59:09,920 --> 00:59:13,160
Speaker 5: stat So this is just another beautiful Dennis Allen spot.

1177
00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:16,320
Speaker 5: And I'm sorry, but the Saints may not have covered,

1178
00:59:16,320 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 5: but they did win last week, which would mean that

1179
00:59:19,000 --> 00:59:23,520
Speaker 5: Dennis Allen coach teams are three fourteen and two against

1180
00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:25,640
Speaker 5: the spread coming off a straight off winning their last game.

1181
00:59:26,000 --> 00:59:27,720
Speaker 5: That would make him one hundred and thirty eighth of

1182
00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:30,840
Speaker 5: one hundred and forty two coaches against the spread in

1183
00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:34,080
Speaker 5: the last twenty years. He's actually also five and one

1184
00:59:34,120 --> 00:59:36,920
Speaker 5: against the spread in that spot this year as a favorite.

1185
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:40,720
Speaker 4: I'm sorry, I was this guy ahead coach so bad.

1186
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:42,919
Speaker 5: Here's the thing though, The funny thing that's funny about

1187
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:45,720
Speaker 5: is Minnesota just come up one like the most emotional

1188
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:48,959
Speaker 5: wins you could possibly have in the regular season ever,

1189
00:59:49,040 --> 00:59:51,520
Speaker 5: so it's kind of works both ways there. But we'll

1190
00:59:51,520 --> 00:59:54,040
Speaker 5: see if maybe New Orleans by a field goal, by

1191
00:59:54,160 --> 00:59:57,720
Speaker 5: one by two, we'll see hopefully they come through for

1192
00:59:57,800 --> 01:00:01,040
Speaker 5: you guys. Uh, favorites. You guys talked about it earlier

1193
01:00:01,080 --> 01:00:03,280
Speaker 5: in the show. We haven't really got into this as

1194
01:00:03,400 --> 01:00:06,800
Speaker 5: much in this segment, but we will now. So seventy

1195
01:00:06,880 --> 01:00:09,680
Speaker 5: one sixty to five favorites against the spread this year

1196
01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:11,960
Speaker 5: through nine weeks, that is actually the best year for

1197
01:00:12,000 --> 01:00:16,320
Speaker 5: favorites since twenty thirteen. Haven't really been an underlying storyline

1198
01:00:16,360 --> 01:00:19,520
Speaker 5: this year with favorites. The average line for a favorite

1199
01:00:19,520 --> 01:00:22,560
Speaker 5: this year minus four point eight points, So that would

1200
01:00:22,600 --> 01:00:27,760
Speaker 5: be the lowest full year for favorites in the wildcard era.

1201
01:00:27,840 --> 01:00:30,960
Speaker 5: So we've never seen the line this low for favorites

1202
01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:34,320
Speaker 5: at only minus four point eight points, and that since

1203
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 5: nineteen eighty. Wow, So just a very different NFL. And

1204
01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:40,240
Speaker 5: then I'll leave you with this one. This is actually

1205
01:00:40,280 --> 01:00:42,439
Speaker 5: a really really crazy stat. When I get blown away

1206
01:00:42,440 --> 01:00:45,000
Speaker 5: by something, I like to pass it along. So Jacksonville

1207
01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:48,760
Speaker 5: and San Francisco, Buffalo and Denver both games this week

1208
01:00:48,800 --> 01:00:52,080
Speaker 5: where both teams are on extended rest. When both teams

1209
01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:54,919
Speaker 5: are on extended rest, which is eight days or more,

1210
01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:59,000
Speaker 5: the under is ninety nine forty seven and one. So

1211
01:00:59,040 --> 01:01:03,280
Speaker 5: that's sixty eight p since twenty eighteen. That includes twenty

1212
01:01:03,280 --> 01:01:06,600
Speaker 5: three and five this season. So that is Jacksonville and

1213
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:10,360
Speaker 5: San Francisco, Buffalo and Denver looking for where both teams

1214
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:12,400
Speaker 5: are on extended rest. Crazy run.

1215
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:16,640
Speaker 1: I'm just glad you didn't say teams on extended rest.

1216
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:20,400
Speaker 1: The underdog twenty seven percent against the spread since Taysom

1217
01:01:20,480 --> 01:01:24,160
Speaker 1: Hills started running the football in nineteen thirty two. All right,

1218
01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:28,320
Speaker 1: here we go to recap. Jacksonville plus three is the

1219
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:31,400
Speaker 1: Foxhole the big balls better the week is the New

1220
01:01:31,440 --> 01:01:33,680
Speaker 1: York Jets plus one.

1221
01:01:33,800 --> 01:01:36,880
Speaker 3: Two store NASA Suffield's only bit.

1222
01:01:37,240 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 1: Exec decision Cleveland plus six. Simon says Cincinnati minus six

1223
01:01:41,760 --> 01:01:45,160
Speaker 1: and six and a half. The round robin Jacksonville, New

1224
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:50,600
Speaker 1: York Jets, Cleveland Minnesota, Denver. We had to lock in

1225
01:01:50,760 --> 01:01:53,480
Speaker 1: five right now. I wrote this down before the show.

1226
01:01:53,680 --> 01:02:01,600
Speaker 1: It felt like it was so easy. I wrote Jacksonville, Brown's, Bengals, Seattle, Denver.

1227
01:02:03,160 --> 01:02:06,680
Speaker 1: But it feels like we're not going to find consensus

1228
01:02:06,720 --> 01:02:07,280
Speaker 1: on all.

1229
01:02:07,120 --> 01:02:08,760
Speaker 3: Of the dream five.

1230
01:02:09,640 --> 01:02:12,200
Speaker 2: It was before the show, it was my my five.

1231
01:02:13,840 --> 01:02:18,280
Speaker 4: God damn, I think we can agree.

1232
01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:20,040
Speaker 1: We want to keep Jacksonville in there. I want to

1233
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:21,880
Speaker 1: keep the Bengals in there. If if it's at six

1234
01:02:21,920 --> 01:02:24,640
Speaker 1: and a half, I would be comfortable keeping the Broncos

1235
01:02:24,640 --> 01:02:27,680
Speaker 1: in there and waiting for Monday night to determine our fate.

1236
01:02:29,800 --> 01:02:35,240
Speaker 1: You feel strongly about the Jets and the and the Saints.

1237
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:43,760
Speaker 1: I feel really strongly about the Browns. So which do

1238
01:02:43,800 --> 01:02:49,720
Speaker 1: you feel more strongly about? The Jets are the Saints?

1239
01:02:51,360 --> 01:02:54,040
Speaker 3: I mean, you asked me this after Evan just ripped

1240
01:02:54,040 --> 01:02:55,439
Speaker 3: my heart out of the Saints pic.

1241
01:02:55,800 --> 01:03:00,960
Speaker 2: Uh, because it's terrible, But I'm with you because you're

1242
01:03:01,000 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 2: my good.

1243
01:03:01,720 --> 01:03:04,960
Speaker 3: I'm the professional. M ME wants to say, you take

1244
01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:09,520
Speaker 3: the Jets here, but no, I'm I'm fucked man. I

1245
01:03:09,640 --> 01:03:12,280
Speaker 3: like this Saints way too much. It's it's a it's

1246
01:03:12,320 --> 01:03:15,680
Speaker 3: a it's a problem. Uh give me the Saints if

1247
01:03:15,680 --> 01:03:17,040
Speaker 3: it's two and a half in the contest.

1248
01:03:17,440 --> 01:03:19,080
Speaker 1: The Saints are like the Giants for us, where we

1249
01:03:19,080 --> 01:03:21,240
Speaker 1: couldn't resist the Giants last year and they hurt us

1250
01:03:21,240 --> 01:03:23,400
Speaker 1: every single time. All right, then I think our five

1251
01:03:23,480 --> 01:03:28,200
Speaker 1: is going to be We'll look at the numbers Jack's Jacksonville, Brown's, Bengals,

1252
01:03:28,800 --> 01:03:31,080
Speaker 1: Saints and Broncos.

1253
01:03:30,480 --> 01:03:33,320
Speaker 4: But we'll see feels like it, all right.

1254
01:03:33,400 --> 01:03:36,160
Speaker 1: Remember, Simon and I will be back with our week

1255
01:03:36,200 --> 01:03:39,120
Speaker 1: ten recap episode we have in the Action We YouTube

1256
01:03:39,160 --> 01:03:41,760
Speaker 1: page this Sunday, Every Sunday at seven thirty pm Eastern.

1257
01:03:41,760 --> 01:03:48,120
Speaker 1: Don't forget sign up RSVP to our live event December

1258
01:03:48,160 --> 01:03:56,320
Speaker 1: third in Hoboken, New Jersey. Description contains the RSVP link.

1259
01:03:56,760 --> 01:04:00,240
Speaker 1: Doors will open at four pm. Simon and I go

1260
01:04:00,360 --> 01:04:02,840
Speaker 1: live with the show at seven point thirty.

1261
01:04:03,520 --> 01:04:06,000
Speaker 2: You're gonna hang out with us. You're gonna watch the games.

1262
01:04:06,040 --> 01:04:10,120
Speaker 1: We're gonna bet on bet three sixty five The Shepherd

1263
01:04:10,240 --> 01:04:13,640
Speaker 1: and the Knucklehead on will And at Willow Avenue in Hoboken,

1264
01:04:13,680 --> 01:04:17,880
Speaker 1: New Jersey, December third. Please go RSVP free event. We're

1265
01:04:17,880 --> 01:04:22,240
Speaker 1: not asking you to pay for anything. Um download us

1266
01:04:22,240 --> 01:04:25,480
Speaker 1: from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,

1267
01:04:25,520 --> 01:04:27,000
Speaker 1: and we US five stars say whatever you want.

1268
01:04:27,080 --> 01:04:30,600
Speaker 2: Feedback is a gift. Till Sunday night at seven thirty Eastern.

1269
01:04:31,520 --> 01:04:32,000
Speaker 1: Love You.

1270
01:04:35,800 --> 01:04:40,320
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1271
01:04:40,360 --> 01:04:43,120
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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01:04:43,160 --> 01:04:46,280
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler