WEBVTT - The Mark Moss Show | Marty Bent 0:00:00.000 --> 0:00:02.559 All right, welcome back to another episode of The Markma Show, 0:00:02.560 --> 0:00:05.600 where we talk about the decentralized revolution, how the world 0:00:05.720 --> 0:00:08.800 is changing as we look at through the lens of politics, finance, 0:00:09.080 --> 0:00:14.080 and technology. Today, I am sitting down with another special guest. 0:00:14.320 --> 0:00:18.599 I'm talking about podcast host media personality, Marty Bent. He's 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:22.240 the host of the t f TC podcast. He's recently 0:00:22.239 --> 0:00:24.520 been featured on shows such as Glenn beck Um and 0:00:24.600 --> 0:00:28.000 he is on front. He's in front of what is 0:00:28.040 --> 0:00:30.680 going on as this world is changing, and I'm talking 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:34.040 about it through the lens of politics, finance, and technology 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:36.040 and the merger of those three. And we are going 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:39.040 to talk about all three of those topics. The economy, 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:41.760 the markets, the signs of the economy is breaking down, 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:43.720 but what does that mean for the market, How the 0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:45.800 monetary system of the world is changing, what's going on 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:48.879 with the World Forum, what they're talking about, and what 0:00:49.040 --> 0:00:50.880 is going to happen from that. We're gonna talk about 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:52.520 all that. Let's quead just jump right into the interview 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:56.560 with Marty. Alright, Marty, thanks for hosting. I'm hosting you 0:00:57.080 --> 0:00:59.480 this time. But in your studio, tables of the table 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:02.160 is gonna nice its chairs So here we are in 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:05.399 the t FTC studios with UM with Marty Bent. If 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:07.400 you don't watch Marty Show, you definitely should t f 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:11.000 TC and read his uh every read it right, every day. Right, 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:12.880 you're trying to get back to it. Your days been 0:01:12.959 --> 0:01:15.679 like two just three days a week. This week, I'm 0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:17.959 getting back to five days a week. So check out 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:22.119 his email. Will link will link to that stuff down below. UM. 0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:24.520 I always love listening to your stuff. We share a 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:26.840 very common worldview, so so it's always a pleasure to 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:28.319 get down to sit down talk to you as well 0:01:29.600 --> 0:01:31.840 a lot of things to cover today. You put an 0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:33.600 article I think it was this morning or last night 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:37.120 talking about the signs of economic stress or everywhere, So 0:01:37.160 --> 0:01:39.160 I want to dig into that first. I was just 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:41.399 saying before we sat down that I think this year 0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:43.320 is gonna be better than most people expect, and that's 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:46.120 a contrary and view. So let's let's talk about that 0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:47.800 a little bit and then we'll get into a bunch 0:01:47.800 --> 0:01:50.440 of other fun stuff that I have planned. But so 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:53.000 what I there's all there's been all these like disparate 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:56.200 stories there we've been reading on zero Hedge and they're 0:01:56.200 --> 0:01:58.240 just like siloed. That's what I try to do with 0:01:58.240 --> 0:01:59.560 this letter last night was to put a few of 0:01:59.560 --> 0:02:02.800 them together. That's what I focused on was consumer credit 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:07.880 and savings UM, housing or a real estate more broadly 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:12.840 commercial real estate and residential real estate, and then the 0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:15.880 used car market. And you threw in late layoffs and 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:18.880 layoffs as well UM, and that tied into the commercial 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:24.040 real estate and so consumer credit, Uh, it's hitting new 0:02:24.040 --> 0:02:29.200 all time highs. Obviously, it fell significantly after the COVID lockdowns. 0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:31.920 People went into their houses, paid off their debt, had 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:34.240 a lot more disposable income, and they weren't traveling to 0:02:34.240 --> 0:02:37.880 work and eating out and all that jazz. But since then, 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:40.560 if you look at like the slope of the increase 0:02:40.639 --> 0:02:43.200 of consumer credit since it started going back up, and 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:48.519 it's a bit steeper than it was in the ten 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:53.840 years prior after after things started going back up after 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:57.800 eight and so we have that situation. Then you juxtapose 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:03.080 that credit growth with savings rates which are plummeting. There 0:03:03.200 --> 0:03:06.960 two point seven of disposable income right now, which is 0:03:07.000 --> 0:03:10.440 the second lowest point in recorded history, with the first 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:15.200 being two point four in two thousand five, right before 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:18.320 the housing crisis and so, and that was as of 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:21.920 Q three two, so we have another quarter of which 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:24.480 Christmas was abolved with. So you have to imagine people 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:27.520 were digging in their savings to do all their spending. 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:31.240 And the retail numbers came in this morning and retail 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:35.080 sales were down one point one percent, which was for Christmas. Yeah, 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:38.000 which was lower than expected. And so that savings rates 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:41.000 probably even a bit lower, um than it was in 0:03:41.120 --> 0:03:44.560 Q three two. And then you combine those two and 0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:48.600 add an interest rates. You have credit card rates hitting 0:03:49.640 --> 0:03:54.160 levels around on average. So that signals to me that 0:03:54.280 --> 0:03:57.840 the consumers under an immense amount of stretch stress excuse me. 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:00.840 They're over extending themselves, going into more debts at the 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:04.880 same time blowing through their savings. Uh. And obviously prices 0:04:04.920 --> 0:04:08.839 are going up. Food energy, it's leveled off a bit, 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:11.800 but it seems like wheels going back up. And so 0:04:11.880 --> 0:04:14.880 that was the one sort of theme that I honed 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:17.960 in on, like, Hey, consumers seem pretty stressed out. They're 0:04:17.960 --> 0:04:20.680 adding more debt at higher rates, although they haven't cut 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:26.560 their spending no, which is weird, Yes, because uh, people, 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:30.760 I forget what podcast I was listening to, but um, 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.760 it's like a social psychological thing. Like once you're used 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:37.599 to getting a new iPhone every eighteen months or getting 0:04:37.680 --> 0:04:40.680 the latest athletic equipment and want to keep doing that. 0:04:40.800 --> 0:04:44.080 It's just like hard. Let go that that tendency in 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:46.320 the latest CPI day that it just came out. Um, 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:49.599 the core inflation is very sticky. It's like not budging, 0:04:49.680 --> 0:04:54.760 which kind of shows this consumer is just not stopping spending. No. Yeah, no, 0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:58.440 well the core inflation too. It's like going, you know, 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:00.160 thinking what they're spending on, like food and then g 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:05.159 predominantly um, which is your central goods. Yeah, obviously we 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:08.040 have an egg crisis country right up, which is this 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:11.799 bird flu. But yeah, people are freaking out about eggs, 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:15.479 which is something I never thought i'd see. It's weird. Yeah, 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:19.040 it's weird when you know, we have this ranch out 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:22.479 here and it might be a little t m I 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:26.280 for the audience. But my daughter was freaking out at 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:29.800 the time. They were having like a tampon shortage and 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:32.360 like she was like seeing the news and like all 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:34.120 these girls are freaking out and she was like freaking out. 0:05:34.120 --> 0:05:35.320 It's like the end of the world for her. You know, 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:37.719 we have to go stockpile these things, so like seeing 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:39.880 whether it's eggs or that. Like, I mean, the economy 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:41.520 is just kind of breaking down, which I want to 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:44.040 come back to. Okay, So the consumers getting stretched, then 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:48.279 that's a horrible um position both spending or if say 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:51.160 saving or credit going up as savings are going down. 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:56.800 So the consumers getting stretched, it's not cut couldn't spending yet. Um. 0:05:56.920 --> 0:05:58.800 Then we have a couple of other things, right, So 0:05:59.400 --> 0:06:03.120 the used car our markets, So what do you see? 0:06:03.160 --> 0:06:04.520 What are you see in there? Like what are you 0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:08.400 thinking about that? So these are typically used cars, particularly 0:06:08.520 --> 0:06:17.400 like leading indicators of economic stress because people are deciding hey, uh, 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:19.159 they're either just saying, hey, I need to get rid 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:21.359 of this car because I don't need it. I can 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:24.240 take an uber, especially in the uber eyes world, like 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:28.640 people are weighing their monthly payment verse um just paying 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:33.160 an uber to get to and from work, which does 0:06:33.240 --> 0:06:36.039 tend to be cheaper, Like I uber to and from 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:38.080 here usually met my wife have one car, and it's 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:41.000 definitely cheaper than our car payment over the course of 0:06:41.000 --> 0:06:43.840 the month, especially when you had in parking and all 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:47.200 the other stuff. Yeah, exactly, And so that market's career 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:49.560 but it's it's down. It was down, had like the 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:52.560 largest monthly decline in December. But you also have to 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:56.120 take an account that also had this roaring bull market 0:06:56.480 --> 0:07:00.240 after when people moved out of the city as they said, Hey, 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:01.840 I'm gonna live in the suburbs, I need a car 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:05.119 if I'm in the suburbs. Uh, and so that sent 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:08.640 prices of used cars skyrocketing. Another factor of that was 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:11.720 the supply chains for new cars got completely bored. They 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:13.760 couldn't find the parts and so you have to supply 0:07:14.440 --> 0:07:17.559 con straight on the new cars. So used car market 0:07:17.600 --> 0:07:20.200 got flooded. But yeah, if you look at I forget 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:23.800 the exact stats, but the average monthly payment for I 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:29.760 believe thousand dollars, yeah, for of used car owners, UM, 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:33.440 which is pretty high, uh, for your average consumer. And 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:36.480 then on top of that, the probably I didn't include 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:40.000 it in the newsletter, but I saw the stat this morning. Um, 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:43.960 the sixty day delinquency rate for used cars is up 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:48.440 year on year. And so there's delinquency rates When people 0:07:48.480 --> 0:07:50.920 stop paying their bills, that's usually an indicator that they 0:07:50.960 --> 0:07:53.960 can't and they're in economic stress. And so that wasn't 0:07:53.960 --> 0:07:57.000 included in that particular newsletter, but it's a stat I 0:07:57.040 --> 0:08:00.200 saw this morning, year on year, sixty day delinquacies up, 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:05.120 which is a pretty material increase. I have a buddy 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:08.280 who runs the auto auctions in California, and I was 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:11.040 talking to just this last weekend, and um, he said 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:12.800 that there's still a lot of action, but he has 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:15.840 seen a lot of weakness, and especially the luxury car marks. 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:20.960 The g wagons specifically have taken like a massive hit. Um. 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:22.720 Some of that is a lot of these cars were 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:27.880 going fifty thousand a hundred thousand over sticker, which is insane, insane. 0:08:27.960 --> 0:08:29.520 I mean, we looked at when we bought our car 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:32.880 that we have. We brought it in June, right we 0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:34.920 left the city. We were in New York. We left 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:42.000 early March, pretty early, and then we were living excuse me, 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:44.080 we're living down the shore and needed a car, and 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:48.040 so we went we bought a used car. Um locked 0:08:48.080 --> 0:08:50.120 in like a four percent interest rate. It was like 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:54.760 twenty two grand. It was like the best time to 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:56.680 get in because we checked prices like a year later. 0:08:56.800 --> 0:08:59.040 In our car, even with all the miles we put 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:01.640 on it, what have sold for like the DeGrand um 0:09:01.760 --> 0:09:06.599 an they used car um. And so another thing to 0:09:06.640 --> 0:09:08.520 fact interest rates coming to this story as well. The 0:09:08.559 --> 0:09:11.280 average interest rate on these used cars is temper set 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:15.079 as well. Um. And when you think a quarter of 0:09:15.120 --> 0:09:17.240 these used car owners are paying a thousand dollars a 0:09:17.280 --> 0:09:20.240 month plus that temper cent interest rate. I've seen a 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:23.160 lot of people talking about the the used car market. 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:25.480 I've seen changes in lending standards where they're being much 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:27.880 more relaxed, which is a problem because they're just trying 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:29.760 to get units out the door, which again shows the 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:34.240 consumers stress, the credit the money is not there. And 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:36.120 and for sure it's like a leading indicator to the 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:37.760 point that you made, But do you think it really 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:40.360 poses a systemic threat to the rest of the economy. 0:09:40.840 --> 0:09:43.360 I don't think they used car market particularly right. I 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:48.000 don't think like an implosion of used cars of the economy. 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:52.880 It's just an indicator that hey, there's some sex subsection 0:09:53.000 --> 0:09:55.719 of the economy that's under stress, is either dumping these 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:59.040 cars or not buying them because they can't afford them. Yeah. 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:02.720 And then we have the real estate market you covered, 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:05.760 which I think goes into the layoffs. You said, yes, 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:12.920 uh so that's particularly with the reats, the non tradeable rates. 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:16.600 Blackstone had their sixty nine billion dollar reat fund that 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:21.480 they UH curb redemptions two in November. They've recently got 0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:24.720 a capital injection from the University California system of four 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:27.280 billion dollars, so I think that's back open. But then 0:10:27.280 --> 0:10:31.959 there was a star Wood Asset Management also curb redemptions 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:36.080 to their sixteen billion dollar UH non tradeable rate and 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:41.080 their explanation for why their investors were pulling money out 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:46.040 because they had a stellar U two and they were 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:52.960 taking profits. But I think, UH, like, especially in this market, 0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:55.600 you want to like people are scared. They people are scared, 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:59.480 they want their money UM. And even though these reds 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:02.320 performed really well the last couple of years, signals to 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:05.720 me that if these types of investors are pulling their 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:08.320 money out of that first, it's for a reason. And 0:11:08.720 --> 0:11:12.960 these rates typically invest in commercial real estate UM here 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:18.040 in the United States and UM post lockdowns UM. And 0:11:18.080 --> 0:11:20.760 now with these tech layoffs going on, like the market 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:24.800 for commercial real estate it's seeming pretty bearish because people 0:11:24.800 --> 0:11:28.160 are either working from home or if they are working 0:11:28.200 --> 0:11:30.920 out in an office, A lot of these tech companies 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:34.160 are beginning to lay off people at an increasing pace, 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:37.960 especially office space in Silicon Valley for example, right, really bad. 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:40.480 I was looking at some of the data on Blackstone 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:41.680 like a week ago. I talked about it in a 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:44.520 different video. Um, you know, the whole thing with the 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:48.600 GBTC situation, grace scale, bitcoin trust and that they don't 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:50.559 really want to unravel that thing because they're making a 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:53.880 two percent premium on that, which is super healthy. Blackstone 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:58.520 makes three point six percent. They're charging three. They're making 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:02.080 was it two billion dollars a year or something like that, 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:04.560 right to to three point six on sixty eight billion 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:08.120 whatever that was or something like that. I'm sorry, I 0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:10.480 can't do math on the top of my head. Um, Austin, 0:12:10.520 --> 0:12:16.240 what is that three point six of sixty billion? Anyway? Um? 0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:19.600 And uh it's even more murky so um. Just on 0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:22.680 a little side note, but they don't mark to market 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:28.400 their assets, so it's all controlled internally, and internally they 0:12:28.400 --> 0:12:31.800 set the valuation of what their assets are. It's a 0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:34.640 breat that people invest into and they don't even have 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:37.319 any say of what assets they buy, so who knows 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:39.720 what they're even buying and they could be buying junk 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:42.280 assets and then they're not marked to market. They set 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:45.720 the valuation, which they're probably keeping artificially high because they're 0:12:45.760 --> 0:12:48.400 making the three point six percent off the back of it. 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:55.040 That's did you forget what that is? Uh? Probably it's 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:58.560 probably like some point three billion. It was a lot there. 0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:02.079 Side note, But okay, so back to this. So um, 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:04.520 those that those are great data points. Um. The the 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:08.000 economic data is bad, it's really bad. We could talk 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:11.560 about indicators and it's all looking bad. We have the 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:13.760 most extreme yield curve we've ever seen in history, which 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:18.520 tells us the recessions coming. Um, the unemployment number is low, 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:21.199 but if you dig in the data, it's actually really bad. Um, 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:22.680 And we can keep going on and on on. They 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:25.600 don't factoring the participation rate, which is very important, the 0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:28.560 participation rate, which is at its lowest point in history. 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:30.800 I was trying to do a little research and look 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:33.440 at when the unemployment rate was this low before and 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:35.600 what the participation rate, but it was hard to get 0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:38.520 that data. But okay, so we frame it up and 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:41.600 the economic data is bad. It's really bad, and we're 0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:46.880 hurdling too catastrophe at the rate we're on potentially, Um, 0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:49.080 we can add in a couple more things just real quick. Uh, 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:52.480 the baby boomers are all retiring. Under the ereset law, 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:54.959 they were able to invest tax free, but they're forced 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:58.160 to start cashing in and pay the taxes now when 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:02.640 they're seventy three or whatever. Um, we have interest rates 0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:04.920 so high that all these corporations aren't gonna be able 0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:07.560 to roll over their debt. And then if they don't, 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:09.600 if they can't borrow more money, they're not buying back 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:12.240 their stocks. So they're not buying as the boomers are selling. 0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:15.920 I mean, we can go on the question I have 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:20.760 is um, so what not not so what? But more? 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:24.280 What does that mean? So? Um? When if we look 0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:28.720 at uh, what we saw is that the economy does 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:33.080 not equal the markets. The entire economy was literally shut down. 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:35.920 It couldn't have been any worse. Businesses were literally put 0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:37.840 out of business, and yet the markets hit all new 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:43.400 times asset prices, stocks, bonds, real estate, bitcoin, etcetera. So 0:14:45.200 --> 0:14:46.840 when we're looking at the economic data and we're looking 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:49.720 all these data points, is it so like, Um, what 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:52.160 does the average listener care? Like, Hey, you better buckle 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:53.840 down because the economy is gonna get bad, maybe hard 0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:56.680 to make money or for like investing does that matter 0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:01.480 in terms of like asset prices a agree like show 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:04.480 like the markets do not equal the economy. But the 0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:10.440 key difference between three and is FED policy, right, like 0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:14.200 you have the FED seems pretty dead set on driving 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:18.960 rates and keeping them there higher than five percent. It 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:21.720 seems like every other day you have a FED governor 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:24.040 from some part of the country coming out and saying, yep, 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:26.360 we're gonna we're gonna raise rates above five and then 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:29.000 try to keep it there through the rest of the year. 0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:32.040 So I think that's the number one factor that would 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:36.840 lead to a different outcome than where you shut down 0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:40.920 the economy, UH, lowered rates, print a bunch of money 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:45.400 at a government stimulus on top of that, and people 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:48.560 simply a more disposable income that they weren't spending as 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:50.920 they were traveling to and from work and hanging out 0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:53.120 and weren't able to go to bars, going to movies, 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:57.440 good all that. UM. So I think that's different today 0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:05.120 where the interest rates part really could bring markets in 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:12.960 the economy closer to UM sort of like markets the economy, 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:18.480 markets in the economy, UH could be accurately reflected together 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:23.160 instead of this disconnection that we had in Yeah, Yeah, 0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:26.400 the Fed. The FED wants to crush demand. So they 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:28.560 want to crush the economy because they want people to 0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:30.760 be broke so they don't keep spending so much money. 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:33.040 So maybe they're saying, hey, we're doing a good job. 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:36.280 I guess we're Larry Summers come out. I mean he's 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:40.160 not officially associated with the Federal Reserve anymore, but I 0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:43.240 mean he was on CNBC a few weeks ago sitting 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:45.280 on a beach saying, yeah, we need to uh, we 0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:48.360 need to drive chop loss here so that we can 0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:52.480 lower prices and the economy on a solid base. And 0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:55.160 that is a very scary thing that people need to 0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:57.760 hear again. So we're gonna repeat that again. So they 0:16:57.760 --> 0:16:59.640 want to crush demand by making you pour so you 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:01.360 don't buy as much stuff. They're trying to do that 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:04.639 to get CPI down to the two to three percent range, 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:08.120 but they also want to get unemployment up to five 0:17:09.160 --> 0:17:11.359 They want more people to lose their jobs. Yeah, the Fed, 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:13.960 it's pretty evil. I mean, the Fed won't come out 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:18.040 and say it. They need a proxy member like Larry 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:20.640 Summers to come out and say what everybody knows they're 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:24.359 trying to do. Um, But Yeah, when you think about it, 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:30.280 just highlights the insanity in the perverse nature of FED policy, 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:33.720 like they really only care about these numbers and not 0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:36.239 the well being of individuals. At the end of the day, 0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:39.960 they've created this Frankenstein monster that they sort of lost 0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:43.520 control of, and so they're trying to get control of 0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:46.240 this monster, and they're willing to do that at the 0:17:46.280 --> 0:17:50.399 expense of your everyday American. I mean, it's to come 0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:51.760 out and say, we need more people to lose their 0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:54.800 job and high wages is a problem for them. They 0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:58.440 need people to make less money because high wages drives inflation. Yes, exactly, 0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:02.960 I mean, come on, insanity. Um. But I had said 0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:04.520 out there before we came in that I think this 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:06.480 year could be better, and I was specifically talking about 0:18:06.680 --> 0:18:09.240 asset prices. Um. Then most people think. And the reason 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:11.280 why I'm shifting my thinking a little bit, I don't 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:13.320 know if you saw it just happened this week. The 0:18:13.320 --> 0:18:15.480 BLS came and said they're gonna change the way they 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:19.639 calculate cp I. So again again right, they've done it 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:23.240 multiple times using shadow Stats. Well, the lightest CPI rating 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:25.159 was six point five percent. Shadow Stats says we're a 0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:27.000 fifteen point six percent if you go back to how 0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:28.879 they calculate in the eighties. So now they're going to 0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:31.520 change the way they calculate CPI, and instead of looking 0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:33.879 at a two year average of the comparables of the 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:35.879 comp it's going to be just one year, which is 0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:39.600 the last year, which was the highest inflation we've ever had, 0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:42.359 So you measure from there, it comes down. And so 0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:45.639 even if inflation stays flat from here, which we're trending 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:47.439 down pretty quickly right now, but let's just say it's 0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:49.040 a look at the economy, it's probably gonna trend not 0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:51.280 even faster, but assuming it just stays flat, by the 0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:55.120 end of Q one will be in the three percent range. Yeah. 0:18:55.440 --> 0:18:58.200 But again so yeah, they're just manipulating the base from 0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:02.800 which they calculate inflation. Even though inflation has come down. 0:19:03.560 --> 0:19:05.240 One thing that everybody has to consider is, like going 0:19:05.240 --> 0:19:09.919 back to last year, inflation started running hot through the 0:19:09.960 --> 0:19:15.159 summer and through or towards like the fall, started climbing 0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:20.240 up and then um all the way through. And so 0:19:20.440 --> 0:19:23.600 even though yes, the inflation rate has come down like 0:19:23.680 --> 0:19:26.639 six five percent, that's still growing on a bigger base 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:29.919 that was still going to last year and still going up. 0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:33.960 And even if it is only six and a half percent, 0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:37.280 six and a half percent, inflation is still very high. One, 0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:40.320 it's really fifteen and a half percent exactly. For if 0:19:40.320 --> 0:19:43.040 you're using the FEDS manipulated metrics, I mean, their target 0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:46.200 historically has been two percent. They've been teasing like they're 0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:48.520 going to raise that up to four percent. But even 0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:52.920 if it's four percent, you're still, um, they're still well 0:19:52.960 --> 0:19:54.679 above it, to and a half percent above your target. 0:19:55.840 --> 0:19:58.199 So um. The reason why I would want to kind 0:19:58.200 --> 0:19:59.960 of make that distinction between the economy and the mark 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:03.000 gets And then now looking at this if if they 0:20:03.000 --> 0:20:06.560 can magically are not magically through changing the way they calculate, 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:09.480 it could get CPI down to three pc by the 0:20:09.520 --> 0:20:11.560 end of Q one. That gives them all the political 0:20:11.600 --> 0:20:15.280 cover they need to be easy. And again, yes, yes, 0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:19.760 it does, definitely does, and maybe that's the intention behind 0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:24.240 the manipulation of the CPI number. But I also think 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:28.600 we need to zoom out a bit and realize that 0:20:29.160 --> 0:20:31.400 the US economy, yes it's the largest economy in the world, 0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:34.159 but we're not in a bubble. There are some uh 0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:38.960 sort of negative externalities that can come from outside the US, 0:20:39.040 --> 0:20:42.080 particularly Japan right now, which I think is a canary 0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:44.520 in the coal mine that could throw a wrench in 0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:48.760 any plans in the Federal Reserve might have because the 0:20:48.760 --> 0:20:53.360 Bank of Japan is having a pretty hard time successfully 0:20:53.400 --> 0:20:56.800 controlling their yield curve and they said they're gonna they 0:20:56.800 --> 0:21:00.320 said they may abandon it. Yeah, And they're larger center 0:21:00.359 --> 0:21:04.680 of U S treasuries in the world. They they own 0:21:04.760 --> 0:21:07.399 half of their their bond market, and I think they 0:21:07.440 --> 0:21:11.200 own a lot of their stock market as well. UM 0:21:11.280 --> 0:21:16.080 And I think that's why I'm more cautious going to 0:21:16.160 --> 0:21:19.680 this year again. I think the economic data here in 0:21:19.680 --> 0:21:22.840 the US looks pretty pissed poor, and then like an 0:21:22.840 --> 0:21:26.480 even scarier prospect is this negative externality coming from somewhere 0:21:26.520 --> 0:21:30.520 like Japan or um if Europe, I mean the UK 0:21:30.880 --> 0:21:33.920 got into a pension crisis not too long ago as well. 0:21:33.960 --> 0:21:39.000 There there's like these events that we're not really aware of. 0:21:39.080 --> 0:21:41.080 They can just pop up, and it's like that Mike 0:21:41.119 --> 0:21:44.240 Tyson uh quote. Everybody has a planned to get punched 0:21:44.280 --> 0:21:46.679 in the face. And I think it could be Japan, 0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:50.159 could be Europe, it could be somewhere else. But I 0:21:50.200 --> 0:21:54.879 think there there's somebody crouching behind the low in the 0:21:54.920 --> 0:21:58.560 bush waiting to punch global markets in the face. By 0:21:58.600 --> 0:22:00.960 the way, the first interview I in my new studio 0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:03.800