WEBVTT - A More Hawkish Foreign Policy Ahead, Bremmer Says 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:13.040 Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 Daily we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.480 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:33.560 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Martin 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:35.720 Secker joins us head of all of our content and 0:00:35.720 --> 0:00:40.400 of course, uh running all of our Washington operation for years, 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:43.560 and Nick Wadhams joins us in Washington in the blur 0:00:43.680 --> 0:00:45.600 of the day, Nick, I want to drive right down 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:49.239 to task one, which is Mike Pompeo. Is he going 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:53.120 to be different than Rex Tillerson and getting us to 0:00:53.200 --> 0:00:58.240 an operational, functional State Department or the will the President 0:00:58.400 --> 0:01:02.560 block that effort? I mean, you know, I think he 0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:05.880 his foreign policy views are generally much more in line 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:09.520 with the President Trump's, so much more hard line. I 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:13.959 think Secretary Tillerson did have a foreign policy outlook that 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:16.800 was much more conventional and sort of in line with 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:19.640 what we would have thought of the more republican, moderate 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:23.160 republican administration in the past. Uh that had led to 0:01:23.240 --> 0:01:26.520 a sort of war between the Secretary Tillerson and the 0:01:26.520 --> 0:01:29.160 White House where uh, there we was there was a 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:32.120 lot of sparring over nominees for posts. That was one 0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:34.679 of the big reasons why, uh, these slots were not 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:38.240 getting filled. He was objecting to some of the President 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:42.560 Trump's nominees for posts. The Trump White House was objecting 0:01:42.560 --> 0:01:45.800 to his positions, so usually had this sort of deadlock 0:01:45.880 --> 0:01:48.840 over these nominees. Well, just thirty five days ago, or 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:52.040 excuse me, forty five days ago, Thomas Shannon left the 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:55.920 State Department is under Secretary of State for Political Affairs. 0:01:55.960 --> 0:01:58.160 That's just one example of people leaving the door. When 0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:02.400 does the hemorrhagen stop? Nick, Well, I don't think this 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:05.440 is something that is going to end with Mike Pompeo. 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:08.320 If anything, it will only hasten it. Um Uh. There's 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:11.240 a lot of criticism of recky Dollerson, but actually when 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:14.320 you look at his foreign policy prescriptions, they were fairly 0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:17.760 standarded in line with past administrations. If anything, Mike Pompeo 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:22.040 will be even more harder to the right and and 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:25.839 will alienate this building even more. Those those these these 0:02:25.840 --> 0:02:30.640 people tend to be sort of cautious and careful um 0:02:31.200 --> 0:02:33.800 and orthodox and their prescriptions. So when you put in 0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:37.000 someone like Mike Pompeo. They're going to have allergic reaction 0:02:37.080 --> 0:02:39.320 to him. Marta Shanka, I want you to come in 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:41.679 on this and tell us your thoughts. But specifically, does 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:43.880 this have anything to do with the ongoing or non 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:46.800 ongoing relationship that the United States has with Russia. I 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:49.840 note that that Retch to Listen yesterday was quoted as 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:52.639 saying that the United States has tried to work more 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:55.440 diligently and more carefully with the Russians on a variety 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:58.079 of issues, but said that the Russians have taken it 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:00.560 upon themselves to us. He says, pivot, Uh in a 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:03.240 more hardline direction. You know, to me, that's one of 0:03:03.240 --> 0:03:05.440 the more fascinating things. And Nick and chime in on 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:08.720 this is just what Mike Pompeo thinks about the Russian 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:12.320 interference in the two thousand and sixteen election. The CIA 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:16.960 has a central role in looking at that issue. Um. 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:21.320 Does his political alignment with Donald Trump preclude him from 0:03:21.320 --> 0:03:25.560 being outspoken about the Russians meddling in the election? Or 0:03:25.639 --> 0:03:28.480 does he speak the truth to the president? Uh? That 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:31.519 will be something that will be fascinating and it will 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:35.120 come out in his confirmation hearing. UM, I would suspect 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:37.720 he would get confirmed. But they're going to be some 0:03:37.800 --> 0:03:40.800 hard questions asked at that at that hearing when it 0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:43.160 had when it happens, Marty are they're hard questions to 0:03:43.200 --> 0:03:45.360 be asked about the actual role of the State Department 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:47.360 no matter who is in charge, because, I mean, there 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:49.840 has been money allocated for the State Department that is 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:52.800 yet to be spent. There are a variety of ambassadorial 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:56.160 posts that have been vacant and have not received any 0:03:56.200 --> 0:04:00.320 specific appointments. Is there a philosophical issue of about how 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:03.120 the president views the State Department and its use for 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:07.240 peign policy. Well, traditionally state departments have been really run 0:04:07.280 --> 0:04:10.040 out of the White House. I mean it's the President 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:12.720 of the United States who sets policy and directs the 0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:18.000 state head of state to actually execute it. One of 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:21.360 those things that Rex Tillerson did, which was very controversial, 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:26.760 is a strict adherence to budget restraints and a lot 0:04:26.800 --> 0:04:30.040 of the lack of people in those posts was a 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:34.120 philosophical issue that we didn't need to Now the question 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:36.960 is does Mike Pompeo take the same approach and then 0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:40.400 Nick Adams, for example, to your coverage of former Secretary 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:45.040 of State Tillerson in Chad the other day. How alone 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:49.520 is he out there compared to Secretary carry traveling three 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:52.600 and four and five years ago. Oh, I mean, this 0:04:52.760 --> 0:04:55.479 is fascinating. We literally just ended that trip to Africa 0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:58.080 about four hours ago. We got back about five am 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:01.360 from Nigeria, and on the plane with us he did 0:05:01.920 --> 0:05:04.279 when he obviously knew what was going on. He didn't 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:06.880 give any indication of it to us at the time, 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:08.800 but he did have this very rare moment where he 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:10.520 spoke with us on the record in the back of 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:13.800 the plane, which he had not traditionally done, very harsh 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:17.840 words for Russia, which was in dissonance with with the administration. 0:05:18.520 --> 0:05:20.920 H a lot of confidence, he said, he was very 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:24.120 confident in himself and his own abilities. Um, when we 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:27.480 asked him about the possibility of negotiations with Kim jongun, 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:30.320 and then you see this over and over, this dissonance 0:05:30.360 --> 0:05:33.920 with the administration in Chad. He said, Chattians are welcome 0:05:33.960 --> 0:05:36.480 in the United States. Whether it was the administration that 0:05:36.600 --> 0:05:40.320 had imposed this travel panactual reporting and he's in the 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:43.120 back of the plane coming back from Nigeria. Would you 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:45.760 suggest that the secret of the former Secretary of State 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:49.760 in his interview with you and other reporters on that airplane, 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:54.840 supported the President's efforts with Mr Kim and North Korea. Yes, 0:05:55.160 --> 0:05:57.240 there's there's no question that he did. But he was 0:05:57.320 --> 0:06:00.839 clearly blindsided by the President's decision to accept the meeting 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:04.760 with Kim Jong hun on on spur of the moment. 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:07.440 I mean, this goes against everything Rex Tillerson believes in, 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:11.240 which is deliberation, process, doing things right, making sure you 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:13.760 have all the bases covered before you go into a meeting. 0:06:14.320 --> 0:06:16.960 So he was not surprised by the president's decision to 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:20.160 meet with Kim Jong un. He was very surprised by 0:06:20.160 --> 0:06:23.040 the President's decision to say, yes, let's just do this meeting, 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:27.520 uh quickly without the proper preparation. She's just joining us worldwide. 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:30.160 Pim Fox and Tom King with our foreign policy reporter, 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:33.800 State Department reporter, Nick Waddams, and Martin Schenker with us 0:06:33.800 --> 0:06:36.160 of course running all of our Washington shop and now 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:38.599 head of all of content for Bloomberg News. Marty a 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:42.640 question for Mr Wadhons just off the plane. Yeah, Nick, 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:46.200 What's interesting to me is that you're convinced that Rex 0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:49.680 Tillison absolutely knew what was going on? What makes you 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:52.640 think that that's so? I mean, this president sometimes keeps 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:56.839 his own counsel, even on things like this. Uh. Two reasons. One, 0:06:57.000 --> 0:07:00.320 on the plane, he he cut this trip short by 0:07:00.320 --> 0:07:03.080 a day, which struck us as extremely odd. You're on 0:07:03.120 --> 0:07:06.520 a five nations trip to Africa. Why come home only 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:08.599 one day early? If you're gonna cut it short, you 0:07:08.600 --> 0:07:11.480 know why. He he also had he was ill at 0:07:11.520 --> 0:07:14.600 one point in Nairobi, so he spent the entire day off. 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:17.560 That struck us as odd. He basically had no appointments 0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:20.640 on on that one day. Um. He also said that 0:07:20.680 --> 0:07:23.280 he got a call on Friday morning. He had gotten 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:25.640 a call on Thursday about North Korea that kept him 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:27.320 up all night. Then he said, I got another call 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:30.360 on Friday and I asked him specifically what was that 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:32.160 call about, and he said, I can't tell you about 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:34.800 that yet. But so clearly there was a lot going on. 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:37.200 This is critical. Nick Wadhams, have you seen a change 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:40.560 behavior in the former Secretary of State over the last 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:45.080 week or so on this trip to Africa? Well, interestingly, 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:47.640 the changing behavior I think was the fact that he 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:49.800 was more willing to speak to us generally he's been 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:53.720 quite cautious and uh not very outspoken. He would rarely 0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:56.760 do on the record uh interviews with us in the 0:07:56.760 --> 0:07:59.480 back of the plane. This time he did, and he 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:03.840 was very forth right, particularly in his condemnation of Russia. UM. 0:08:03.880 --> 0:08:06.560 And then, you know, just looking back and piecing some 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:10.080 of these things together, it is interesting that he obviously canceled, 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:12.480 he cuts the trip short, which struck us all as odd. 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:15.080 He had this day where he didn't emerge from his 0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:17.480 hotel room. They said he was ill, which you know, 0:08:17.520 --> 0:08:20.600 obviously in Africa is entirely possible. But when you look 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.160 back and sort of connect the dots like that, it 0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:25.080 does seem that there was a level of sort of 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:28.520 strain and chaos about this trip. You know, there's also 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:32.080 this fascinating moment where he basically took the entire afternoon 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:34.720 off on Sunday to do a game drive with his 0:08:34.760 --> 0:08:38.160 staff in that Roby National Park, UM, which you know, 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:42.679 for Secretary Kerry had done something similar when he was 0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:45.280 when he was on the job. To do it for 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:48.959 so many hours on a trip like that, it's just interesting. 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:51.120 You know, another sort of data point, uh, Nick, just 0:08:51.200 --> 0:08:54.160 quickly give you about thirty seconds here. Gina haspell named 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:58.400 to become the head of the Central Intelligence Agency. As 0:08:58.440 --> 0:09:01.400 Mike Pompeo looks to the next Secretary of State, tell 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:05.120 us about the challenges that she faces. Well, I mean again, 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:09.200 you're gonna have this issue of the intelligence community colliding 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:12.520 against the Trump administration. Mike Pompeo has been adamant that 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:15.800 he has not shaded intelligence at all to fit what 0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:18.960 President Trump wants. But there's a huge war going on 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:21.760 over the exact role that Russia played, you know, obviously 0:09:21.800 --> 0:09:24.200 in the middle of the US elections, and the role 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:27.000 it continues to play. She's going to be under a 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:30.920 lot of pressure from both sides, the intelligence community and 0:09:30.960 --> 0:09:34.920 the administration to get this right. Fascinating. Nik Wadhams greatly 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:38.679 appreciate your travels for Bloomberg News, and of course this 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:42.319 reporting from the plane was Secretary Tillerson over the last 0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:46.360 few days. Mr Wadhams is our foreign policy reporter in Washington. 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:49.400 We think Martin Schenker as well, particularly Marty pointing out 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:52.200 the hearings that are to come with the new Secretary 0:09:52.240 --> 0:10:07.600 of State. Mr Pompeio wanted to bring you now a 0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:10.280 gentleman that we opened the year with with his top 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:14.200 Rists of the Year, Ian Bremer of Eurasia Group. Dr Bremer, 0:10:14.280 --> 0:10:17.680 thank you for making time with us today. Frankly, this 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:22.920 instability within six Pennsylvania Avenue and the administration was one 0:10:22.960 --> 0:10:26.160 of your risks this year. We're not surprised, though, are we. 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:29.439 Uh No, And let's keep in mind that you know 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:33.800 the initial firings, which you know are at an unprecedented level. Uh. 0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:38.920 Senior posts worried about something like almost double that we've 0:10:38.920 --> 0:10:42.640 seen any any modern day administration in the first year. 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:45.440 But most of those that were forced out early were 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:49.240 people that really were not competent to govern needed to 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:52.400 be out. We're problematic for a bunch of reasons. Most 0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:57.400 recently the Gary Cone and now Rex Tillerson removals are 0:10:57.480 --> 0:11:01.400 actually very different. These are people that are clearly very competent, 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:05.480 lots of experience, Uh maybe maybe not the best fits 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:08.760 for the administration for lots of reasons, and certainly king 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.080 with their own problems, but will make it harder to 0:11:11.120 --> 0:11:14.640 do them. Ian, do you just assume that Secretary of 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:18.320 State Pompeo, if he's more aligned with President Trump, will 0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:21.120 have a State Department that is ever more empty than 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:26.199 the one that Secretary of State Tillerson enjoyed. No, I 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:29.040 wouldn't assume that. I mean tell us it was truly 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:34.000 loathed by the diplomats. Uh. He kept his own counsel, 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:40.199 a very small basically kitchen cabinet within State, and people 0:11:40.240 --> 0:11:44.160 he brought over from his days at X on Mobile. Uh, 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:46.240 there was enormous Uh. You know, I had to do 0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:48.720 with more of his management style, and I suspect Pompeo 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:51.040 is not going to do much force might do a 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:53.840 little better on that front and on the people around 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:57.520 him immediately around him issue. The issue had much more 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:00.680 to do with the actual policies, to listen, has a 0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:06.480 lot of experience dealing with difficult leaders all over the world. Um, 0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:10.240 he had been a moderating force and a fairly independent 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:15.400 force on trade, on trade with China, on North Korean negotiations, 0:12:15.559 --> 0:12:19.800 on the Iran deal, on Russia. Pompeo will be none 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:22.760 of those things. Will be you geological hawkus and much 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.800 willing to do whatever Trump wants. Here the bell there 0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:30.720 markets open up a hundred and zero five Ian bremer Ian. 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:32.800 If I know Pim Fox wants to jump in here, 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.120 if I can play off your new book, US versus Them, 0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:39.160 the failure of globalism, US versus them, the failure of 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:43.199 our foreign policy. What does Secretary of State Pompeio need 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:49.320 to fix day one? Uh, He's not gonna fix anything 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:52.920 they want. That's not why he's being brought in. I mean, 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:55.240 you know, you now have a president that is saying 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:58.720 he's going to meet with Kim Jong run um and 0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:02.480 wants to play nice if that works, but if he doesn't, 0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:05.560 he's prepared to become a hard line. Pompeo, I think, 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:08.480 doubles down on that message. You have an Iran deal, 0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:11.040 the Trump says he wants it better or he wants 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:14.439 to break it. By May, Pompeo doubles down on that. 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:17.520 He creates a much more binary set of outcomes that 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:19.800 either the US gets it the way we want on 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:22.320 all of these issues, or you're going to see a 0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:27.360 considerably more hawkish policy. Um. Trump might consider that fixed 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:31.320 in the sense that it's more of what Trump wants, 0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:34.760 but it's much more dangerous world it's and it's more 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:38.000 volatile for the market. And just a little bit more 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:42.240 on Mike Pompeo graduated first in his class at West Point. 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:47.480 His law degree at Harvard and was a congressman from Kansas. 0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:52.280 He also desires regime change in North Korea. What's his 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:56.440 position going to be as the President prepares for his 0:13:56.440 --> 0:14:01.680 historic meeting with Kim Jong Long of North Korea? Well, again, 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:04.280 I mean, I think if you're Pumpel in this environment, 0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:06.320 you know the reason you're being brought in is to 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:08.520 tell Trump that you're right about everything. So it's much 0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:13.240 more like Lightheiser as US trade representatives. It's hearing what 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:16.520 Trump wants and figuring out a way to deliver that 0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:19.400 message to others and get it back to the Boss. 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:23.840 So you're never gonna see him making statements on television 0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:26.320 which you're not aligned with Trump. He'll be much more 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:30.040 like Minute And in that regard and on and because 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:32.880 we're gonna be talking a lot about North Korea going forward, 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:35.440 he's gonna be a hot He's gonna be one saying 0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:38.600 um that if we don't see a path or deuterization, 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:41.880 the military option is on the table. You never hate 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:45.720 that he's gonna be one talking about maximum sanctions and 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:50.240 pressure until we get something from Kim Jong lend he 0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:55.440 makes it more likely that the North Koreans offer something substantive, 0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:58.880 but he also makes it more likely the talks breakdown 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:02.320 or even never happen. What has been his role at 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:05.640 the at the Central Intelligence Agency? Has it changed under 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:09.960 the direction of Mr Pompeo. Uh, you know, I think 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:15.560 that it's been pretty aggressive in terms of counter terrorism efforts. UH. 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:21.720 Certainly support for an expanded US presents internationally in places 0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:25.080 where we're going with bad actors. UM. You've seen that 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:28.440 in American support for the saudiast on Yemen. Pompeo has 0:15:28.480 --> 0:15:31.200 played a significant role there. A lot of people say 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:34.240 that to war the Americans shouldn't be involved in. I 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:37.240 think Pompeo's position is these are bad guys. They need 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:40.200 to take military and intelligence efforts everything we can. We 0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:43.720 need to hit them hard. Also, Pompeo's replacement in c 0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:47.000 i A UH was in charge of one of the 0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:51.000 most important black side CIA operated UM, you know, with 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:55.320 lots of enhanced interrogation techniques. Again, what you're seeing is 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:59.560 a move towards a more focus, more certaive American foreign policy, 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:02.760 but more in the lateral as well. Well. In that context, 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:06.880 Mike Pompeo was in charge of the Counterintelligence Mission Center. 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:11.320 I believe right. This is at the CIA, and that's 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:15.200 the department which began the investigation into possible links between 0:16:15.640 --> 0:16:20.640 associates of Donald Trump and Russian officials. Yeah, I mean, 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:22.680 I get. I think that what we're gonna see on 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:27.120 Russia is very interesting to watch. That Trump removed Tillerson. 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:29.880 By the last thing we heard from Tillison were a 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:33.760 couple of very strong statements that the United States fully 0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:38.720 supported um Theresa May uh in the belief that the 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:43.320 Russians were behind these nerve agent attacks against British nationals, 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:48.640 that the Americans would support action against Russia. UM. Pillison's 0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:54.240 also supported sanctions against Russia expanding Uh. The White House 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:57.880 has absolutely refused to mention the Russians explicit regists. I 0:16:57.920 --> 0:17:01.200 think that Pompeo will know way took a hard wine 0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:05.160 on Moscow unless we see a shift from Trump going forward. Um. 0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:07.600 That's it's very clear we're going to see no daylight 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:09.879 between these two. Well, can you tell us about his 0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:15.080 relationship with James Madis, Secretary of Defense and specifically the 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:18.720 military's awareness of climate change as a as a threat 0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:21.280 to US security. That doesn't seem to be consistent with 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:25.600 Mr Pompeo's views, it's not. But having said that, Madis's 0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:27.840 views have not been consistent with much of the Trump 0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:30.199 in the race. And Madis been very good at not 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:32.880 getting in the limelight, not making big statements that he's 0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:36.119 going to get criticized for UM and UH and and 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:39.880 I think that keeping his own counsel UH. The morale 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:42.840 at the Pentagon, unlike the State Department on the Tilliston, 0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:46.399 has been very high. Maddis as one of the generals, 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:50.000 has held in very high refused by both both Trump 0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:52.960 and the White House. I actually think everyone that talked 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:55.320 about a suicide path that the past and was gone, 0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:57.920 that Maddis was gone to I think that was complete 0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:02.600 b speculation that we time mad Dr Bremer. One more question, 0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:05.040 if we could generous of your time this morning the 0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:07.720 President Tilts and his recent comments I don't know you've seen, 0:18:07.760 --> 0:18:12.160 I mean towards Iran. How will our relationship with Iran 0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:17.800 change and does that provide for further Middle East instability? Well, 0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:21.520 there's been a lot of negotiation with Killerson and with 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:27.560 his advisors, with the Europeans transpiring the way to UM 0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:32.480 continue to ensure that the Iranians will not be able 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:35.960 to develop nuclear capacity at the end of the tenure period. 0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:39.919 Other words, strengthen uh de termined it the deal without 0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:43.760 breaking the deal. Um. I think that Pompeo is going 0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:46.840 to be less interested um in that path, is going 0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:49.120 to be more interest in trying to bring the iranience 0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:51.680 back to the table to change or break the deal. 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.639 Like with North Korea, it's a more digital and it's 0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:57.080 a more risky out. The new book Us versus then 0:18:57.119 --> 0:19:00.639 the failure of globalization. Ian Bremer with us this morning. 0:19:12.880 --> 0:19:16.919 We're honored now him to bring in George Friedman with us. 0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:20.359 Really really, uh, I think this is a timely interview. Pim. 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:23.800 Why don't you bring in Mr Freedman with geopolitical futures 0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:27.160 on defense and how it links into the State Department. Well, 0:19:27.200 --> 0:19:28.600 just let him go ahead and tell us what he 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:31.520 thinks about this new appointment of Mike Pompeio as our 0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:35.240 u S Secretary of State. George Freedman, your thoughts not 0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:38.920 very important at all. Uh. First, this president's which is 0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:42.879 people around. Secondly, a large number of presidents, most of 0:19:42.920 --> 0:19:46.600 them are their own secretaries of state. Trump just made 0:19:46.640 --> 0:19:50.760 a decision, really radical decision to go to North Korea 0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:55.639 to meet with Kim on a major crisis. Uh. He 0:19:55.760 --> 0:19:59.800 obviously doesn't feel that Tillerson is prepared to take you know, 0:19:59.840 --> 0:20:03.960 the he's kind of changes. Tillersen is a very conservative player, 0:20:04.680 --> 0:20:06.960 and he wants somebody backing him who is going to 0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:10.280 be more in tune with him. But I mean, in 0:20:10.359 --> 0:20:14.560 terms of foreign policy, I mean Trump is very, very radical. 0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:17.119 I mean, any other presidents who said, look, I'm not 0:20:17.160 --> 0:20:18.719 going to go to war with North Korea, I'm going 0:20:18.760 --> 0:20:22.440 to talk to them, well be praised a high heaven. Uh. 0:20:22.480 --> 0:20:25.359 In this case, of course, everything he does is going 0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:28.119 to be condemned. But in general, he's had a very 0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:31.879 conservative foreign policy. Tillerson has backed it, but he loves 0:20:31.920 --> 0:20:37.320 shifting personnel around for whatever reason. So in general, the 0:20:37.320 --> 0:20:40.800 Tillerson leaving doesn't mean a whole lot. Pompeo coming in 0:20:40.800 --> 0:20:43.320 doesn't mean a whole lot. Trump is running the show. 0:20:44.119 --> 0:20:47.360 If that's the case, If President Trump is running the show, 0:20:47.359 --> 0:20:51.560 why would Mike Pompeo want this job. Well, to be 0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:55.000 called Secretary of State means a lot. Pompeo seems to 0:20:55.040 --> 0:20:57.560 be closer to the President this week than the other. 0:20:58.760 --> 0:21:00.560 But there have been a lot of press who have 0:21:00.720 --> 0:21:03.560 been whose nowhere to the Secretary of States. When Henry 0:21:03.600 --> 0:21:07.920 Kissinger went to China to open China, William Rodgers, whose 0:21:07.920 --> 0:21:11.600 Secretary of State, was never told that it was happening 0:21:11.160 --> 0:21:13.680 in The reason was it didn't trust the State's Department, 0:21:14.240 --> 0:21:16.640 not the leak. What George treatment from where you set 0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:19.800 with your defense abilities? What is the linkage of our 0:21:19.840 --> 0:21:23.840 State Department with our defense department? Is that overdone? Is 0:21:23.880 --> 0:21:27.600 it overrated? Or is there a real tangible working relationship 0:21:27.640 --> 0:21:31.320 between the two Well depend on the level. There's lots 0:21:31.320 --> 0:21:34.359 of routine things going on that they work together on. 0:21:35.160 --> 0:21:38.200 They have different perspectives on the world at different missions, 0:21:38.320 --> 0:21:42.879 different jobs. But this president and other presidents had felt 0:21:43.000 --> 0:21:45.480 that they could not trust the State Department to follow 0:21:45.520 --> 0:21:49.320 their policies. The State Department has a reputation earned or 0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:52.000 not that they have a view of the world and 0:21:52.080 --> 0:21:55.080 whatever the president says, they're going to go and do it. 0:21:55.880 --> 0:21:59.159 And so in many administrations, the State Department has been 0:21:59.200 --> 0:22:01.960 cut out. They have been left with the routine things, 0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:05.879 but the major breakthroughs they haven't touched. Killerson was told 0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:08.840 to cut the State Department. The budget has been cut. 0:22:09.080 --> 0:22:12.359 We'll see what happens with that, But I mean there's 0:22:12.400 --> 0:22:15.880 always been attention between the Defense Department's view of the world, 0:22:15.920 --> 0:22:17.920 the State department ze of the world, and the CIA's 0:22:18.200 --> 0:22:21.800 department of the world due the world, and good presidents 0:22:21.840 --> 0:22:26.000 have always allowed that to go on, and you know, 0:22:26.240 --> 0:22:29.520 try to have a foreign policy that kind of combines 0:22:29.600 --> 0:22:33.320 the two at that level. So in this particular case, 0:22:33.640 --> 0:22:37.800 this president doesn't trust the State Department. He clearly trust 0:22:37.880 --> 0:22:40.920 the Defense Department, and he has a love hate relationship 0:22:41.000 --> 0:22:45.800 the Sea. The most one of the more more important 0:22:45.800 --> 0:22:48.160 books that you put out is the Flashpoints the emerging 0:22:48.200 --> 0:22:51.000 crisis in Europe. What do you expect Mike Pompeio to 0:22:51.080 --> 0:22:54.920 contribute to the alleviation of any crisis in Europe? Well, 0:22:54.920 --> 0:22:58.040 the crisis in Europe is a European crisis. Uh. Their 0:22:58.160 --> 0:23:01.240 failure to deal with the two thousand eight crisis has 0:23:01.359 --> 0:23:05.919 generated fragmentation among nations, bricksit being only the most visible 0:23:06.560 --> 0:23:10.439 and within nation the rise of nationalist movements. There's the 0:23:10.560 --> 0:23:15.520 United States has not touched the European situation by and large, 0:23:15.680 --> 0:23:20.760 there's nothing we can do and the Europeans wouldn't respond. 0:23:21.520 --> 0:23:24.000 So when we talk about the crisis in Europe, it 0:23:24.119 --> 0:23:27.200 is the crisis, the fact the EU is failing, failing 0:23:27.280 --> 0:23:31.080 is an entity, and that it's kicked off a political 0:23:31.119 --> 0:23:34.080 crisis where even the Germans don't have a coherent government. 0:23:34.880 --> 0:23:38.159 So it's an internal process that really doesn't affect us. 0:23:38.200 --> 0:23:41.439