WEBVTT - Gordon Chang talks to Armstrong & Getty

0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:04.240
<v Speaker 1>So because of the horrifying weekend we had in the

0:00:04.320 --> 0:00:07.880
<v Speaker 1>United States, the news coverage kind of obliterated was going

0:00:07.920 --> 0:00:10.760
<v Speaker 1>on in Hong Kong. After eight weeks of protest. There

0:00:10.840 --> 0:00:14.160
<v Speaker 1>was more almost as much tear gas fired at protesters

0:00:14.280 --> 0:00:17.720
<v Speaker 1>yesterday by the Chinese government as in the previous eight

0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:21.040
<v Speaker 1>weeks combined. I mean, the protests have really he hit

0:00:21.079 --> 0:00:23.960
<v Speaker 1>a fever pitch. The protesters are shutting down buses, trains,

0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:29.040
<v Speaker 1>caused two flights to be canceled. Meanwhile, the trade conflict

0:00:29.040 --> 0:00:32.720
<v Speaker 1>with China continues and that could have serious ramifications economically,

0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:36.200
<v Speaker 1>especially in the future. To discuss these twin topics, we've

0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:40.600
<v Speaker 1>invited on the terrific Gordon Chang, who is an American columnist, blogger,

0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:43.720
<v Speaker 1>television pundit, author, lawyer. He's widely known for his book

0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:46.200
<v Speaker 1>The Coming Collapse of China, as well as other good stuff.

0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:48.840
<v Speaker 1>Gordon Chang joins us, Gordon, how are you, sir, fine,

0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:50.919
<v Speaker 1>thank you, and thank you so much. Listen, there are

0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:54.280
<v Speaker 1>plenty of sins from the colonial era, um, plenty of

0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:56.320
<v Speaker 1>bad stuff happened. On the other hand, the people of

0:00:56.400 --> 0:01:02.040
<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong, which was a British colony, um are probably dreaming,

0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:06.480
<v Speaker 1>fantasizing of returning to the days as a British colony.

0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:08.800
<v Speaker 1>What is their likely future now under the control of

0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:13.040
<v Speaker 1>the communist Chinese. Yeah, that's a great question. Um. Both

0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:17.000
<v Speaker 1>sides have hardened their positions. UM. The kids, the demonstrators,

0:01:17.040 --> 0:01:21.320
<v Speaker 1>the pro democracy forces clearly do not want Chinese interference

0:01:21.319 --> 0:01:24.680
<v Speaker 1>in Hong Kong. China promised fifty years of self rule

0:01:24.800 --> 0:01:29.039
<v Speaker 1>under the one Country, two systems formula of semi autonomy,

0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:33.559
<v Speaker 1>and right now Beijing has clearly violated that promise. UM.

0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:36.520
<v Speaker 1>So you see kids who have now said this is

0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:39.479
<v Speaker 1>the last stand for Hong Kong, and many of them

0:01:39.680 --> 0:01:41.640
<v Speaker 1>have said they're willing to die, and as four of

0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:45.040
<v Speaker 1>them have committed suicide in circumstances where it looks like

0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:48.480
<v Speaker 1>they're linked to the protests. UM. You know, Beijing right

0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:51.200
<v Speaker 1>now probably doesn't know what to do. They've lost control

0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:54.800
<v Speaker 1>of the situation. UM. At some point they probably will

0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:58.840
<v Speaker 1>send in the People's Armed Police and the People's Liberation Army. UM.

0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:01.920
<v Speaker 1>But that's clearly a last last resort for them because

0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:04.800
<v Speaker 1>they know that Hong Kong is not armored car country

0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:08.480
<v Speaker 1>and they're in for a long term struggle with a

0:02:08.600 --> 0:02:11.840
<v Speaker 1>very unhappy population. What do you mean not an armored

0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:18.520
<v Speaker 1>car country. Well, um, people talk about tenement in connection

0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:22.120
<v Speaker 1>with Hong Kong, and they asked, could that happen again? Well,

0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:26.240
<v Speaker 1>Beijing has these wide boulevards at the time, Um, it

0:02:26.280 --> 0:02:29.400
<v Speaker 1>was perfect place for tanks and armored cars to maneuver

0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:34.000
<v Speaker 1>and to engage in the slaughter. Hong Kong is pretty

0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:37.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, We've got narrow streets, got tall buildings. Um.

0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:41.760
<v Speaker 1>There's all sorts of things that determined opposition can do.

0:02:42.160 --> 0:02:46.240
<v Speaker 1>And I think that essentially you could see um pitched

0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:51.400
<v Speaker 1>battle and not it would be blood on both sides. Well,

0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:55.000
<v Speaker 1>and having read a lot about it again with the

0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:58.760
<v Speaker 1>universary just recently the square when they cracked down, part

0:02:58.760 --> 0:03:02.040
<v Speaker 1>of the problem that um, the Chinese government had was

0:03:02.080 --> 0:03:03.720
<v Speaker 1>there a lot of young soldiers that were on the

0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:05.880
<v Speaker 1>side of the protesters and didn't really want to go

0:03:05.919 --> 0:03:08.000
<v Speaker 1>in there and wipe them out. How is that working

0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:11.120
<v Speaker 1>in this case with the Hong Kong protesters. Well, also

0:03:11.400 --> 0:03:13.880
<v Speaker 1>in there were a lot of generals who didn't want

0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:17.440
<v Speaker 1>to do this, and and some generals just absolutely refused.

0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:22.359
<v Speaker 1>Dung Haoping, the paramount leader at the time. UM. This time, UM,

0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:26.079
<v Speaker 1>you know they're bringing in people who don't like Hong

0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:29.240
<v Speaker 1>konger's Um. The problem right now, there's a lot of

0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:33.079
<v Speaker 1>problems with the Hong Kong police, but as you suggest,

0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:35.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of them do sympathize with the protesters. They've

0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:38.920
<v Speaker 1>got family on the other sides of the barricades, and

0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:42.840
<v Speaker 1>they right now, they're demoralized, they're fatigued. Um. There's no

0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:46.080
<v Speaker 1>discipline or very little discipline that you can see, um.

0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:49.000
<v Speaker 1>And that's one of the reasons that might force Beijing

0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:51.400
<v Speaker 1>to do something it doesn't want to do. But if

0:03:51.400 --> 0:03:53.080
<v Speaker 1>they're going to bring in people, they're gonna bring in

0:03:53.240 --> 0:03:57.160
<v Speaker 1>people who have no sympathy at all for Hong Kong residents,

0:03:57.480 --> 0:04:00.280
<v Speaker 1>and so this could get really nasty. Well, yes, today

0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:04.120
<v Speaker 1>they announced the Chinese government announced to the protesters, do

0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:06.960
<v Speaker 1>not take restraint for weakness. Is that as chilling as

0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:11.560
<v Speaker 1>it sounds, Um, it's chilling, but it's hollow. And we

0:04:11.640 --> 0:04:15.040
<v Speaker 1>know this because the Chinese take our restraint for weakness.

0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:18.600
<v Speaker 1>The Chinese communists will wield power when they believe they

0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:21.960
<v Speaker 1>have an advantage. If they're just issuing dire warnings, it

0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:24.560
<v Speaker 1>means that they don't know what to do. If they

0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:27.599
<v Speaker 1>are going to move. Um, we're going to see I

0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:32.400
<v Speaker 1>think much different language um from China, which would be basically,

0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:35.160
<v Speaker 1>if you don't stop this immediately, we will bring in

0:04:35.400 --> 0:04:39.160
<v Speaker 1>the troops. Um. They're not saying that right now, so

0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:42.080
<v Speaker 1>I don't think that they're going to do it. Um.

0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:45.360
<v Speaker 1>Ce Jumping, of course is at a probably desperate He's

0:04:45.400 --> 0:04:48.400
<v Speaker 1>got a Hong Kong problem, the trade problem in America problem,

0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:52.080
<v Speaker 1>and economy problem. He's got problems um that we don't

0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:54.560
<v Speaker 1>even know about. I'm sure. And let's transition to that

0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:58.919
<v Speaker 1>in like fifteen seconds. But one more question. How widespread

0:04:59.000 --> 0:05:02.080
<v Speaker 1>is the support for the protests and the protesters among

0:05:02.279 --> 0:05:06.880
<v Speaker 1>Hong Kongers. I would think that they've got maybe somewhere

0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:10.240
<v Speaker 1>about sevent the population are on their side. One thing

0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:14.559
<v Speaker 1>you haven't heard is condemnations from most Hong Kong people

0:05:14.600 --> 0:05:17.080
<v Speaker 1>about violence. There are a lot of you know, smart

0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:18.960
<v Speaker 1>people in the U said, oh, the protesters are going

0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:21.920
<v Speaker 1>to lose support because of their violent tactics, and they've

0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:24.400
<v Speaker 1>said that in the middle of June. Well, that hasn't

0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:27.160
<v Speaker 1>happened yet because most Hong Kong people, while they might

0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:30.640
<v Speaker 1>not like the violent tactics, are more focused in on China.

0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:34.600
<v Speaker 1>Carrie Lamb who's the Hong Kong Chief Executive, and bad

0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:38.120
<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong police tactics, right, and they're not armshare quarterbacking

0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:39.440
<v Speaker 1>there in the middle of it. They know what the

0:05:39.560 --> 0:05:42.960
<v Speaker 1>risk is. Yeah, And essentially what you've got is the

0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:46.039
<v Speaker 1>kids are getting free passes. The kids can overreact and

0:05:46.240 --> 0:05:48.479
<v Speaker 1>overstep the line. I'm not saying they can't do that.

0:05:48.680 --> 0:05:51.080
<v Speaker 1>I think they probably will do it, but right now

0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:53.520
<v Speaker 1>they've got the support of most people in Hong Kong.

0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:56.039
<v Speaker 1>All right, let's transition to the pressure on she and

0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:59.600
<v Speaker 1>the Chinese regime. How bad is it and why? I

0:05:59.680 --> 0:06:01.760
<v Speaker 1>think they a lot of pressure And the reason is

0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:05.720
<v Speaker 1>Ci Jumping has unprecedented power, which means he also has

0:06:05.839 --> 0:06:09.960
<v Speaker 1>unprecedented accountability. In the old Chinese system, that was before

0:06:09.960 --> 0:06:13.080
<v Speaker 1>he became General Secretary in two thousand twelve, there was

0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:16.520
<v Speaker 1>shared responsibility, so if there was something that went wrong

0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:20.560
<v Speaker 1>that the paramount leader didn't get blamed, well, Ci Jumping

0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:24.000
<v Speaker 1>has taken power from everybody, so there's nobody else to blame.

0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:27.080
<v Speaker 1>And also he's de institutionalized the Communist Party by getting

0:06:27.160 --> 0:06:29.200
<v Speaker 1>rid of rules, which mean there are no rules to

0:06:29.279 --> 0:06:32.719
<v Speaker 1>protect him, which means that when things go well for

0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:35.000
<v Speaker 1>for China, as they did in two thousand and seventeen,

0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:37.400
<v Speaker 1>C Jumping got a lot of credit, got a lot

0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:40.240
<v Speaker 1>of power. When things are going badly for him as

0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:42.919
<v Speaker 1>they are now, he's got nobody else to look to.

0:06:43.160 --> 0:06:45.240
<v Speaker 1>So I think he's in trouble right now. And we

0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:48.880
<v Speaker 1>can see this from a number of different circumstances um

0:06:48.880 --> 0:06:54.240
<v Speaker 1>which can't be explained by other assessments. So China walks

0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:57.039
<v Speaker 1>away from some commitments they made earlier in the trade thing.

0:06:57.120 --> 0:06:59.760
<v Speaker 1>Trump says, I'm going to increase it by ten September

0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:04.039
<v Speaker 1>for China de values their currency even more. And you

0:07:04.120 --> 0:07:07.800
<v Speaker 1>tweeted yesterday and it got some attention. Today Donald Trump

0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:11.160
<v Speaker 1>became a wartime president. What does that mean. It means

0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:14.000
<v Speaker 1>that the Chinese have just sort of shown a throne

0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:17.200
<v Speaker 1>restraint to the winds and they're now acting in an

0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:21.080
<v Speaker 1>extremely belligerent, extremely hostile manner. You know, there has been

0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:24.040
<v Speaker 1>a trade war since the early ninety nineties. We Americans

0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:27.920
<v Speaker 1>just ignored it um but it's become at this point

0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:31.760
<v Speaker 1>something you can't ignore. Beijing is attacking our society. And

0:07:31.760 --> 0:07:34.280
<v Speaker 1>it's not just in trade, of course, not just economics.

0:07:34.640 --> 0:07:38.600
<v Speaker 1>It's Also they're putting on they harming our service personnel,

0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:42.160
<v Speaker 1>they've injured our diplomats. This is at the point where

0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:45.080
<v Speaker 1>we've got to fight back, and so this is a war.

0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:48.000
<v Speaker 1>We're talking Gordon, Shang and Gordon. We barely have a

0:07:48.040 --> 0:07:50.840
<v Speaker 1>minute left. But given the US position that you've got

0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:54.120
<v Speaker 1>to stop the theft of R and D, you've got

0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:59.080
<v Speaker 1>to stop demanding total access to companies that invest in

0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:01.800
<v Speaker 1>in China. Um, and the nature of the Chinese government.

0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:05.800
<v Speaker 1>Is there any reconciling those two things. No, we are

0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:08.560
<v Speaker 1>in a struggle, um and Um. People don't want to

0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:11.360
<v Speaker 1>hear this, but I don't think that we can coexist

0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:13.760
<v Speaker 1>with China. At least we can't to co exist with

0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:16.320
<v Speaker 1>the People's Republic in China. We can get along well

0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:20.040
<v Speaker 1>with the Chinese people. Wow, you know, I haven't seen

0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:23.360
<v Speaker 1>a lot to suggest you're wrong. I don't see a solution.

0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:28.160
<v Speaker 1>I've got a reasonably vivid imagination. Uh. Gordon Chang is

0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:33.439
<v Speaker 1>an American author, columnst thinker, an expert on China and Asia. Gordon,

0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:36.240
<v Speaker 1>it's always enlightening, um, and we hope we can do

0:08:36.280 --> 0:08:38.920
<v Speaker 1>it again soon. Yes, well, thank you so much. All Right,

0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:41.680
<v Speaker 1>it's our pleasure. His latest book is Losing South Korea.

0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:45.440
<v Speaker 1>He doesn't as well. He doesn't think we can coexist

0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:47.679
<v Speaker 1>with China. Wow, we'll have to discuss that more at

0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:49.160
<v Speaker 1>some point and