Speaker 1: So because of the horrifying weekend we had in the
Speaker 1: United States, the news coverage kind of obliterated was going
Speaker 1: on in Hong Kong. After eight weeks of protest. There
Speaker 1: was more almost as much tear gas fired at protesters
Speaker 1: yesterday by the Chinese government as in the previous eight
Speaker 1: weeks combined. I mean, the protests have really he hit
Speaker 1: a fever pitch. The protesters are shutting down buses, trains,
Speaker 1: caused two flights to be canceled. Meanwhile, the trade conflict
Speaker 1: with China continues and that could have serious ramifications economically,
Speaker 1: especially in the future. To discuss these twin topics, we've
Speaker 1: invited on the terrific Gordon Chang, who is an American columnist, blogger,
Speaker 1: television pundit, author, lawyer. He's widely known for his book
Speaker 1: The Coming Collapse of China, as well as other good stuff.
Speaker 1: Gordon Chang joins us, Gordon, how are you, sir, fine,
Speaker 1: thank you, and thank you so much. Listen, there are
Speaker 1: plenty of sins from the colonial era, um, plenty of
Speaker 1: bad stuff happened. On the other hand, the people of
Speaker 1: Hong Kong, which was a British colony, um are probably dreaming,
Speaker 1: fantasizing of returning to the days as a British colony.
Speaker 1: What is their likely future now under the control of
Speaker 1: the communist Chinese. Yeah, that's a great question. Um. Both
Speaker 1: sides have hardened their positions. UM. The kids, the demonstrators,
Speaker 1: the pro democracy forces clearly do not want Chinese interference
Speaker 1: in Hong Kong. China promised fifty years of self rule
Speaker 1: under the one Country, two systems formula of semi autonomy,
Speaker 1: and right now Beijing has clearly violated that promise. UM.
Speaker 1: So you see kids who have now said this is
Speaker 1: the last stand for Hong Kong, and many of them
Speaker 1: have said they're willing to die, and as four of
Speaker 1: them have committed suicide in circumstances where it looks like
Speaker 1: they're linked to the protests. UM. You know, Beijing right
Speaker 1: now probably doesn't know what to do. They've lost control
Speaker 1: of the situation. UM. At some point they probably will
Speaker 1: send in the People's Armed Police and the People's Liberation Army. UM.
Speaker 1: But that's clearly a last last resort for them because
Speaker 1: they know that Hong Kong is not armored car country
Speaker 1: and they're in for a long term struggle with a
Speaker 1: very unhappy population. What do you mean not an armored
Speaker 1: car country. Well, um, people talk about tenement in connection
Speaker 1: with Hong Kong, and they asked, could that happen again? Well,
Speaker 1: Beijing has these wide boulevards at the time, Um, it
Speaker 1: was perfect place for tanks and armored cars to maneuver
Speaker 1: and to engage in the slaughter. Hong Kong is pretty
Speaker 1: you know, We've got narrow streets, got tall buildings. Um.
Speaker 1: There's all sorts of things that determined opposition can do.
Speaker 1: And I think that essentially you could see um pitched
Speaker 1: battle and not it would be blood on both sides. Well,
Speaker 1: and having read a lot about it again with the
Speaker 1: universary just recently the square when they cracked down, part
Speaker 1: of the problem that um, the Chinese government had was
Speaker 1: there a lot of young soldiers that were on the
Speaker 1: side of the protesters and didn't really want to go
Speaker 1: in there and wipe them out. How is that working
Speaker 1: in this case with the Hong Kong protesters. Well, also
Speaker 1: in there were a lot of generals who didn't want
Speaker 1: to do this, and and some generals just absolutely refused.
Speaker 1: Dung Haoping, the paramount leader at the time. UM. This time, UM,
Speaker 1: you know they're bringing in people who don't like Hong
Speaker 1: konger's Um. The problem right now, there's a lot of
Speaker 1: problems with the Hong Kong police, but as you suggest,
Speaker 1: a lot of them do sympathize with the protesters. They've
Speaker 1: got family on the other sides of the barricades, and
Speaker 1: they right now, they're demoralized, they're fatigued. Um. There's no
Speaker 1: discipline or very little discipline that you can see, um.
Speaker 1: And that's one of the reasons that might force Beijing
Speaker 1: to do something it doesn't want to do. But if
Speaker 1: they're going to bring in people, they're gonna bring in
Speaker 1: people who have no sympathy at all for Hong Kong residents,
Speaker 1: and so this could get really nasty. Well, yes, today
Speaker 1: they announced the Chinese government announced to the protesters, do
Speaker 1: not take restraint for weakness. Is that as chilling as
Speaker 1: it sounds, Um, it's chilling, but it's hollow. And we
Speaker 1: know this because the Chinese take our restraint for weakness.
Speaker 1: The Chinese communists will wield power when they believe they
Speaker 1: have an advantage. If they're just issuing dire warnings, it
Speaker 1: means that they don't know what to do. If they
Speaker 1: are going to move. Um, we're going to see I
Speaker 1: think much different language um from China, which would be basically,
Speaker 1: if you don't stop this immediately, we will bring in
Speaker 1: the troops. Um. They're not saying that right now, so
Speaker 1: I don't think that they're going to do it. Um.
Speaker 1: Ce Jumping, of course is at a probably desperate He's
Speaker 1: got a Hong Kong problem, the trade problem in America problem,
Speaker 1: and economy problem. He's got problems um that we don't
Speaker 1: even know about. I'm sure. And let's transition to that
Speaker 1: in like fifteen seconds. But one more question. How widespread
Speaker 1: is the support for the protests and the protesters among
Speaker 1: Hong Kongers. I would think that they've got maybe somewhere
Speaker 1: about sevent the population are on their side. One thing
Speaker 1: you haven't heard is condemnations from most Hong Kong people
Speaker 1: about violence. There are a lot of you know, smart
Speaker 1: people in the U said, oh, the protesters are going
Speaker 1: to lose support because of their violent tactics, and they've
Speaker 1: said that in the middle of June. Well, that hasn't
Speaker 1: happened yet because most Hong Kong people, while they might
Speaker 1: not like the violent tactics, are more focused in on China.
Speaker 1: Carrie Lamb who's the Hong Kong Chief Executive, and bad
Speaker 1: Hong Kong police tactics, right, and they're not armshare quarterbacking
Speaker 1: there in the middle of it. They know what the
Speaker 1: risk is. Yeah, And essentially what you've got is the
Speaker 1: kids are getting free passes. The kids can overreact and
Speaker 1: overstep the line. I'm not saying they can't do that.
Speaker 1: I think they probably will do it, but right now
Speaker 1: they've got the support of most people in Hong Kong.
Speaker 1: All right, let's transition to the pressure on she and
Speaker 1: the Chinese regime. How bad is it and why? I
Speaker 1: think they a lot of pressure And the reason is
Speaker 1: Ci Jumping has unprecedented power, which means he also has
Speaker 1: unprecedented accountability. In the old Chinese system, that was before
Speaker 1: he became General Secretary in two thousand twelve, there was
Speaker 1: shared responsibility, so if there was something that went wrong
Speaker 1: that the paramount leader didn't get blamed, well, Ci Jumping
Speaker 1: has taken power from everybody, so there's nobody else to blame.
Speaker 1: And also he's de institutionalized the Communist Party by getting
Speaker 1: rid of rules, which mean there are no rules to
Speaker 1: protect him, which means that when things go well for
Speaker 1: for China, as they did in two thousand and seventeen,
Speaker 1: C Jumping got a lot of credit, got a lot
Speaker 1: of power. When things are going badly for him as
Speaker 1: they are now, he's got nobody else to look to.
Speaker 1: So I think he's in trouble right now. And we
Speaker 1: can see this from a number of different circumstances um
Speaker 1: which can't be explained by other assessments. So China walks
Speaker 1: away from some commitments they made earlier in the trade thing.
Speaker 1: Trump says, I'm going to increase it by ten September
Speaker 1: for China de values their currency even more. And you
Speaker 1: tweeted yesterday and it got some attention. Today Donald Trump
Speaker 1: became a wartime president. What does that mean. It means
Speaker 1: that the Chinese have just sort of shown a throne
Speaker 1: restraint to the winds and they're now acting in an
Speaker 1: extremely belligerent, extremely hostile manner. You know, there has been
Speaker 1: a trade war since the early ninety nineties. We Americans
Speaker 1: just ignored it um but it's become at this point
Speaker 1: something you can't ignore. Beijing is attacking our society. And
Speaker 1: it's not just in trade, of course, not just economics.
Speaker 1: It's Also they're putting on they harming our service personnel,
Speaker 1: they've injured our diplomats. This is at the point where
Speaker 1: we've got to fight back, and so this is a war.
Speaker 1: We're talking Gordon, Shang and Gordon. We barely have a
Speaker 1: minute left. But given the US position that you've got
Speaker 1: to stop the theft of R and D, you've got
Speaker 1: to stop demanding total access to companies that invest in
Speaker 1: in China. Um, and the nature of the Chinese government.
Speaker 1: Is there any reconciling those two things. No, we are
Speaker 1: in a struggle, um and Um. People don't want to
Speaker 1: hear this, but I don't think that we can coexist
Speaker 1: with China. At least we can't to co exist with
Speaker 1: the People's Republic in China. We can get along well
Speaker 1: with the Chinese people. Wow, you know, I haven't seen
Speaker 1: a lot to suggest you're wrong. I don't see a solution.
Speaker 1: I've got a reasonably vivid imagination. Uh. Gordon Chang is
Speaker 1: an American author, columnst thinker, an expert on China and Asia. Gordon,
Speaker 1: it's always enlightening, um, and we hope we can do
Speaker 1: it again soon. Yes, well, thank you so much. All Right,
Speaker 1: it's our pleasure. His latest book is Losing South Korea.
Speaker 1: He doesn't as well. He doesn't think we can coexist
Speaker 1: with China. Wow, we'll have to discuss that more at
Speaker 1: some point and