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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Value Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am joined as I am every episode by my bff,

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Speaker 1: my companion, Mike Padre professional Better, Simon Hunter, Simon, you

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Speaker 1: and I. It's crazy. What's going on right now? We've

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Speaker 1: got a crazy twenty four hours. Right now, you're in

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Speaker 1: one room in a hotel in Lexington, Kentucky. I am

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Speaker 1: across the hall. Matt Mitchell is between us because we

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Speaker 1: have our live show tomorrow at Keenland at one pm

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Speaker 1: Radio Row one pm e Stern for day. We encourage

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Speaker 1: everybody to come by Radio Road check it out. Last night,

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Speaker 1: you were in Philly for the World Series. I was

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Speaker 1: in New York City for the opening night of Bono's

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Speaker 1: short promotional tour for his book. He's doing some concerts

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Speaker 1: like ten around the country. Last night was the first one.

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Speaker 1: We had a crazy night, crazy night for both. You

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Speaker 1: saw history, I saw history. You go first. I will

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Speaker 1: say Bono peaked after Sunday, Bloody Sunday. It's been downhill

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Speaker 1: every since. We both had great nights. Why do you

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Speaker 1: have to make it? I did not. How dare you

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Speaker 1: saying great? So I don't know if Chad believes in

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Speaker 1: heaven or hell. I don't really know if I believe

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Speaker 1: in it either, but I do believe if you Appella

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Speaker 1: is real, it's a moment in your life in repeat mode.

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Speaker 1: And I might have had my last night seeing your

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Speaker 1: baseball team be no hit. It's the most slow, painful death.

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Speaker 1: And the fact that it's the World Series. I joke

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Speaker 1: with Chad. The vibes going in were so good again Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: If you're a fan of the team, friendliest nicest people

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Speaker 1: in the entire world. If you're not, they're the meanest

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Speaker 1: people in the entire world. So the tailgate was amazing,

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Speaker 1: chat going to the ballpark was amazing, just walking around

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Speaker 1: and just sucking in the atmosphere. I'm sticking it all in. Um,

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Speaker 1: it was incredible. But by the third fourth inning, you

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Speaker 1: can just feel it right, you know it is in

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Speaker 1: the stadium. You can just start feeling things, and that

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Speaker 1: zero just kept getting bigger and bigger underneath the hit

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Speaker 1: marker on the big scoreboards. So, um, it was cool.

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Speaker 1: Scene history. Right, I'll admit to that, like, that's cool.

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Speaker 1: But as a fan, it was horrible because you're just

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Speaker 1: waiting and waiting and waiting for the hits to come.

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Speaker 1: I never did so again. Fun night, but that that's

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Speaker 1: that's one of those I wish. I wish it could

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Speaker 1: have been the game before, right, we have five on runs,

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Speaker 1: not the game we had zero. Yeah, it was a bummer.

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Speaker 1: I felt bad. I felt bad for you know when

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Speaker 1: you were there. I would to see Bono. Bono has

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Speaker 1: a new book coming out came out this week called Surrender,

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Speaker 1: and he was doing He's doing these ten sort of

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Speaker 1: very intimate gigs around the tree. The first one was

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Speaker 1: last night at the Beacon Theater in Manhattan, which is

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Speaker 1: about a block from where I lived when I lived

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Speaker 1: in the city for many years. It was insane. Uh.

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Speaker 1: We got there five rows behind me, Bill Clinton, Tom Hanks,

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Speaker 1: and it was so interesting. Bill Clinton comes in when

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Speaker 1: the lights in the house are still on, crowds are

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Speaker 1: still forming, and like everyone sees him and starts cheering.

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Speaker 1: Tom Hanks comes in, lights are off like he's coming

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Speaker 1: in last second before Banno comes on. Doesn't want to

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Speaker 1: make a fuss doesn't want to create too much chaos.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. My big knock will always be how

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Speaker 1: we not figured out stadium traffic at the end of

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Speaker 1: games is beyond me. I mean humans, We've done the

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Speaker 1: most amazing things in the world, but the anting of

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Speaker 1: a stadium and people get into cars, they just haven't

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Speaker 1: figured out yet. So that's the worst part to me. Like,

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Speaker 1: when you lose, it's all nice, right, people wave you out.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, go in front of me, go ahead, let's go.

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Speaker 1: Everyone can get out of here. Let's it's all team work.

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Speaker 1: After a low loss, everyone's giving each other the finger.

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Speaker 1: No one's let anyone out of the parking lot. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: the game ended. I don't even know, pretty quick game

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Speaker 1: right because there was no hitter, but didn't end until

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Speaker 1: I don't know eleven thirty. Didn't get home until one

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Speaker 1: thirty two, and then woke up at seven, get on

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Speaker 1: the airplane, and now I'm in Kentucky with yet guy.

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Speaker 1: I was like a sleep at two and got up

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Speaker 1: at five. Geez, all right, we're ready to go back. Um. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so that's this is our lives people listening on AMP. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it was. It was. It was a crazy fund twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours. Now we're in Lexington. But we have more

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Speaker 1: important things to do and talk about Lexington than talk

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Speaker 1: about and talk about we do. We gotta give people,

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Speaker 1: uh our phase five. We gotta give people a big

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Speaker 1: balls bet of the week. We're gonna get some sharp

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Speaker 1: calls in a second. Uh. First things. First reminder of Foxhole.

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Speaker 1: We said Bengals minus seven. All the lines that we

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Speaker 1: liked on recorded on Tuesday are now moving in the

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Speaker 1: direction we said they would. We like Bengals at seven,

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Speaker 1: it's at seven and a half. Simon says, with Washington

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Speaker 1: three and a half. Washington in the last twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours has moved to three. We liked exact Decision Bears

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Speaker 1: plus five. This morning Bears moved to four and a half. So, um,

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Speaker 1: you know more reason why people gotta listen up and

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Speaker 1: make the moves when they hear the podcast, because lines

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Speaker 1: are moving before we get to the rest of our picks. Simon,

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Speaker 1: what do we say about sharp calls? Hello, who's there?

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Speaker 1: I'm talking rate telephone right? Said maybe yeah, And I

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Speaker 1: think Chad has nailed it right there talking about the

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Speaker 1: line movement. That's what a couple of the calls I

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Speaker 1: got were about this week. The big one I knew

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Speaker 1: going into it. The press gall over it was Washington.

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Speaker 1: I think everyone's just like us. Yeah, they're looking at

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Speaker 1: a Washington team that they just have a different mode

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Speaker 1: a going right now against the Vikings team that we

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Speaker 1: all think is a little inflated, like six and one.

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Speaker 1: That's crazy. It's just crazy. They've been playing that well

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Speaker 1: and they've been doing They've had a couple of spots

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Speaker 1: where they've been due for a letdown. They keep getting

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Speaker 1: out of it. And again I'm looking at the luck rankings,

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Speaker 1: I just see see them being high up there in

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Speaker 1: the luft brankings this week. So no surprise these amount

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Speaker 1: of calls the other side, the pros are on that

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Speaker 1: me and Chad weren't on, and I think I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: stay stay put. I can't get talked off my position

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Speaker 1: the Jets. I heard a really smart group came in

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Speaker 1: heavy on the Jets. Sure enough. Wake up this morning

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Speaker 1: after the Phillies game, open up the action app, and

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Speaker 1: what do I see? Eleven? It's it's down to eleven

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Speaker 1: and a half. So clearly someone came and hit it

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Speaker 1: and bounced back up. I think got a couple of

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Speaker 1: books to twelve. But I might be overlooking this Jets team,

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Speaker 1: but I just I just can't. I can't do it again.

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Speaker 1: I get it, divisional home dog. I should be all

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Speaker 1: over this Jets team. I still think the Bills are

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Speaker 1: the right side. So if you, if you do want

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Speaker 1: with the pros are back, I get it. Like the

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Speaker 1: Jets are smart spot, I get why really smarts take

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Speaker 1: up position here. But to me, I would not make

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Speaker 1: this one my bigger bets so interesting when I hear

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Speaker 1: a group has taken a large position on a game,

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Speaker 1: that's like, again, I like the Bills, but there's nothing

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Speaker 1: I'm putting. I'm not putting five figures. I'm not putting

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Speaker 1: six figures anything crazy on it. And the last one

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Speaker 1: was the Bears. Me, Chad, we nailed it on our

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Speaker 1: love for it, uh five and a half as well

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Speaker 1: at a lot of books we talked about now down

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Speaker 1: to four and a half. There was a no brainer

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Speaker 1: play like Miami, everyone sees what we're seeing, right, like

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Speaker 1: they will barely be Pittsburgh by six. Right, you can

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Speaker 1: write that off the two again, right, But Detroit had him.

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Speaker 1: Detroit really did have them. They led him into that game.

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Speaker 1: They did for a point that second half. The Bears

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Speaker 1: offense consistently moves the ball, so I know we're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk about that one this week. Feels good knowing the

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Speaker 1: pros are on it with us. So yeah, definitely definitely

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Speaker 1: a little scary with that Bills one, but feeling still

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Speaker 1: feeling really good about Washington. Uh A happy We gave

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Speaker 1: about three and a half because we both kind of

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Speaker 1: knew that number was gonna move the Bears. When I

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Speaker 1: did not see going down, I thought that was you

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Speaker 1: up to six. Love Love of Prose came in and

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Speaker 1: backed us on that one, So I opefay contests we

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Speaker 1: stick a five and a half, but I'd still take

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Speaker 1: it four and half. We both thought we think it

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Speaker 1: should be three three and a half, So still think

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Speaker 1: you're getting a good number there. Um, well, those were

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Speaker 1: the first two games that we love the most, right,

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Speaker 1: that was our sign and says that was our exact decision,

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Speaker 1: depending on what we can get in the contest. I'm

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Speaker 1: still gonna like those games. Um uh the other game,

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Speaker 1: so let's go through the rest of the games that

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Speaker 1: we liked. Uh, Detroit plus three and a half, I

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Speaker 1: still like it. But DeAndre Swift is not going to

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Speaker 1: play uh. I listened to Raybon and Stucky on the

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Speaker 1: Action Network podcast this morning, and Raybond made a great

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Speaker 1: case for the Lions. Everything about their offense is great

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Speaker 1: at home. They're scoring more points at home as an

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Speaker 1: average than the Packers have scored in any single game

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Speaker 1: all year. The Packers rush defense is not very good.

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Speaker 1: At the Packers defense is not very good. It's certainly

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Speaker 1: not as good as any defense to the Lions have

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Speaker 1: faced at home this year. All these great reasons to

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Speaker 1: bet the Lions, but my confidence in the Lions is

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Speaker 1: so shaken from what it was earlier in the year

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Speaker 1: it's hard for me to commit even though it's What's

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Speaker 1: interesting is a lot of the lines we talked about,

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Speaker 1: some it moved, but the Lions hasn't moved at all.

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Speaker 1: Still exactly at three and a half. Yeah, I can

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Speaker 1: tell you that I know a couple of professionals that

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Speaker 1: took up position on the Green Bay. So I do

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Speaker 1: like the Lions too. With Chad, I do think the

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Speaker 1: issue here is what I've been saying for weeks now,

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Speaker 1: is they just seem to not finish out these games,

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Speaker 1: and again they haven't. They don't cover like they were

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Speaker 1: covering Machine. And now the books have caught up to it, right,

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Speaker 1: had a multiple weeks here, they just simply have not covered.

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Speaker 1: So scared, That's what I'll say about this. And I'm

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Speaker 1: scared Simon's being a coward. But it's true. I want

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Speaker 1: to take I want to take Detroit here because what

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Speaker 1: you have just talked about, like, to me, Detroit can

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Speaker 1: put up points. I have no faith in green Bay

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Speaker 1: putting up points, especially with all the injuries they've had

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Speaker 1: to the wide receiver position. So three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Maybe I'm being sucked in on it. But the only

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Speaker 1: reason to me eacha I won't have this in the

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Speaker 1: contest is because the guys I listened to and trust

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Speaker 1: that I know are smart players. They've taken a position

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Speaker 1: on green Bay and the public is just pounded this

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Speaker 1: Detroit nine and the number is just not moving. So

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Speaker 1: um again, there's other dogs I like better this week,

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Speaker 1: so we might stay away from it. But I can't.

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Speaker 1: I can't as you sit here on Thursday, I can't

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Speaker 1: honestly say that I would have this in our contest.

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Speaker 1: I agree, there's something the way we choose our games.

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Speaker 1: It's always about a confidence ranking and as much as anything.

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Speaker 1: At the end of the am I going to have.

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Speaker 1: Are the Lions at three and a half going to

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Speaker 1: be one of the games knowing what we know now

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Speaker 1: we're most confident about. I can't say that for sure.

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Speaker 1: We'll see what happens Sunday. Things change a lot. Reminder

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Speaker 1: follow us in the Action Network app Phase five. We

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Speaker 1: will lock in our picks Sunday at noon. That's when

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Speaker 1: we see where we land on these final games because

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Speaker 1: a lot changes between numbers moving with the contest lines

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Speaker 1: lock at injuries, so you know this is where we're

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Speaker 1: thinking about today, so when we get to Sunday we

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Speaker 1: can make some informed decisions. UM, let's talk about the

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts and the Patriots. Where are you landing right

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Speaker 1: now in this game? I'm still in the Colds, but

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Speaker 1: I still have no, like, no real confidence of taking them.

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Speaker 1: I just I like the magic for the Colts and

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Speaker 1: since they match up well against the strengths of New England. Um,

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Speaker 1: that's a big number for a game that, assuming I him,

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Speaker 1: will be close. But again, we're taking this kid Sam

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Speaker 1: and a second start as a QB against Telichick like

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Speaker 1: the guy kills young quarterbacks and he just again he

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Speaker 1: schemes it up. Or these kids just by the third

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Speaker 1: or fourth quarter, they're just done mentally. They're shot by him.

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Speaker 1: What he does, the fake blitz, the movement, the switching

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Speaker 1: from his own to man. He does a lot of

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Speaker 1: trickeration to really getting guy's head. So again another game

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Speaker 1: where I like the number. Uh, it's just scary where

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Speaker 1: we're It feels like we're walking right into a trap here.

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Speaker 1: But again another game. I know the pros are on

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Speaker 1: the pros around the culture with us, so it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be confidence in that sense. But we joked about it.

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Speaker 1: I knew it was would come down in one of

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Speaker 1: these games on Sunday. It was gonna be this or

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Speaker 1: the Bears. Now I really like the Bears, right Like,

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Speaker 1: I'm starting to feel more confident with the Bears. Where

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Speaker 1: this colts one, it's kind of the same as Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: It's like I feel like me and you're just doing

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Speaker 1: the smart professional play here. Uh, we're deep in our soul,

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Speaker 1: We're like, God, we hate going against Belichick in the

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Speaker 1: spot When we look deep in our souls. Right now,

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Speaker 1: we know we don't want to bet on Sam Ellenser

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Speaker 1: in the Colts. If we're a little bit three games

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Speaker 1: out of a million dollars, that's what's making it so hard.

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Speaker 1: That's what's making it harder. Right, And I'm worried that

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden we've been playing loose. We've won

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Speaker 1: aged straight weeks, like now we're going to tighten up. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's I'm a little worried about. Uh, all right, the

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Speaker 1: Falcons plus three right now? Um, and uh, that number

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Speaker 1: hasn't really moved their hosts in the Chargers, who are

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Speaker 1: off of by um, you know, like my senses that

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Speaker 1: we like the Falcons just because we don't have any

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Speaker 1: faith in the Chargers coaching staff. But and the Chargers

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Speaker 1: aren't that healthy. But the Falcon secondary can't cover anybody

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Speaker 1: right now, that's true. But apparently they're gonna get is

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Speaker 1: back to this week. And that's why I was gonna

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Speaker 1: see if you want to make this our big balls

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Speaker 1: better the week? Oh, because I feel like what you

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Speaker 1: just said the truth. Right. The public is a little

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Speaker 1: scared of this one. They're kind of looking at Lena

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Speaker 1: and looking at that secondary and question. I have a

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Speaker 1: lot of questions about we have Herbert coming in, who

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Speaker 1: was you know, one of the top five guys in

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Speaker 1: passing yards this this year, just a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: And I get it. I get white people would be

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Speaker 1: scared taking this one because the Chargers look like world beaters.

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Speaker 1: But I still think if you can run the ball

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Speaker 1: in the Chargers and you've got ball control, though, that's

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Speaker 1: where you beat them. Like we've seen it time and

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Speaker 1: time again this Charger's team when they lost the Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: it wasn't Gino Smith doing incredible things right, it was

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Speaker 1: the fact that they've ball controlled. And once Herbert, you know,

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Speaker 1: gets one or two, three and ounce, he gets flustered.

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Speaker 1: And that's the biggest issue right now with a lot

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Speaker 1: of people on him, is he's streaking right, He'll have

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Speaker 1: two or three drives, will have incredible throws, and he'll

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Speaker 1: get down the field and sure they might be get

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Speaker 1: seven out of it, but then he'll go quarters of

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Speaker 1: doing nothing right, three and out, three and out, and

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Speaker 1: it's again, I don't trust the O C for the charters.

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Speaker 1: I don't like the position they've been putting Herbard in

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Speaker 1: because to me, the kid has all talent in the

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Speaker 1: world and they're just not winning. Right. We see a

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Speaker 1: time and time again this year they simply aren't winning,

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Speaker 1: and they have a lot of injuries as well, So

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Speaker 1: I get where people are coming from. Um, but to me,

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Speaker 1: you might be able to wait and maybe get the

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Speaker 1: three and a half. But I would still grab the

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Speaker 1: three because I do think pros are gonna come in

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Speaker 1: on this Atlantic game. It just this feels like a

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Speaker 1: pros versus shows game this week, just as just like

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Speaker 1: the Browns did last week with all of the public

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Speaker 1: was all over since and all the Pros wrong. The

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Speaker 1: Browns feels like this conna be like this week with

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Speaker 1: Atlanta Atlanta at home. In this position, I'll take that

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Speaker 1: three three and a half if I can get it.

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Speaker 1: I don't think this is our big balls better the week.

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Speaker 1: Give me a bigger one then, dude, Tennessee, Tennessee, you

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Speaker 1: would really, you'd really have that in then that stuff

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Speaker 1: not in the contest, but you need you need bigger

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Speaker 1: balls than that. Though, if you want to make it

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Speaker 1: our big balls, well that's interesting because it's probably gonna

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Speaker 1: be twelve and a half. I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: twelve and a half or thirteen and a half. Never

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Speaker 1: we've never had a rule where we said it is

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Speaker 1: better the Week, or like an exact decision or a

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Speaker 1: Simon says, it has to be in the contest. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's all basically the number. I just think we'll get

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Speaker 1: a good number on this for the Tennessee in the contest,

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Speaker 1: just because it's been twelve and a half for thirteen

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Speaker 1: all week. Now it's down to twelve. Yeah, it's uh yeah,

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Speaker 1: well I see I see eleven and a half and

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Speaker 1: I see twelve and a half. So um yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, you know, I love it. So if you

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Speaker 1: want to make it on manil on it like I've

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Speaker 1: already bet it. I'm Rabel is a big dog to me.

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Speaker 1: It's just an auto play. It's been good to me.

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Speaker 1: So Vandules Plush twelve and a half right now, that's

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Speaker 1: a good number. Yeah dude, I'm calling it right now,

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Speaker 1: big Better the Week. I can't be as loud as

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Speaker 1: I normally would because I'm in a hotel and I

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Speaker 1: don't want to scare the person in the room next

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Speaker 1: to me. But Titans Plush twelve and a half is

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Speaker 1: our big balls Better the Week. It's very very courteous

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Speaker 1: of you in a place you're never gonna be ever again.

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Speaker 1: After one day, I'm like the ops away. I raised

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Speaker 1: hell in a place I know I'll never be back.

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Speaker 1: So again, people be on the lookout for next two

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Speaker 1: nights in Lexington. Listen, you and I live different lives.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to walk out of the room and

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Speaker 1: like randomly have the person next to me walk out

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Speaker 1: at the same time and they're like, were you just

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Speaker 1: yelling big balls better? The week at its happy your lungs?

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Speaker 1: I would say, yes, again, You're never gonna see this

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Speaker 1: person ever. Again. That's true. That's how I live almost

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Speaker 1: all of my life. Right, guess what? Guess what Big

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Speaker 1: Balls Better? All right? Well, you're right, I don't know

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Speaker 1: that we'll do Tennessee in the contest at twelve and

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Speaker 1: a half. It depends on where the lion is. Look,

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Speaker 1: if we want to make it a case right now,

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Speaker 1: no one's gonna take Tennessee twelve and a half. That

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Speaker 1: will certainly get us a game up if I can

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Speaker 1: see the pros being on it um. But again, the

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Speaker 1: pros like the dogs this week. Like, I know a

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Speaker 1: bunch of pros are on Houston tonight. You couldn't pay

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Speaker 1: me to bet Houston tonight. I know a bunch of

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Speaker 1: pros in the Jets, and I keep arguing with them,

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Speaker 1: like the Jets identity has kind of feels like it's

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Speaker 1: gone now, Bryce Albey now, but they don't care. They

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Speaker 1: still believe in that defense. So three big dogs this week,

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Speaker 1: I can tell you, all pros run all three. Last week,

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Speaker 1: all pros run all three big favorites. So it's flipped

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Speaker 1: this week to last week. What do we think about

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Speaker 1: the Falcons though? So right now I'm putting Falcons in

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Speaker 1: tightens sort of on a side list. I have Washington

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Speaker 1: and Chicago on a main list. I have Detroit on

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Speaker 1: a side list. I would put the Cults on there now,

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Speaker 1: fine with that. I would definitely get a lane on there.

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Speaker 1: That's gonna be one of my that you're gonna feel

386
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Speaker 1: strongest about. Atlanta. I feel like by the time the

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Speaker 1: contest comes around, I will, especially if it's three and

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Speaker 1: a half, Like I kind of feel like I have

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Speaker 1: to do it because again, the Chargers could win. I

390
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Speaker 1: could just see it being a close game because they

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Speaker 1: just will go for the fourth and twenty fourth in

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Speaker 1: their own twenty uh and make no sense, and then

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Speaker 1: they will be a close game. So to me, Atlanta

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Speaker 1: has just played well at home. I gotta take those points,

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Speaker 1: all right. So right now, Washington three and a half,

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Speaker 1: there's five Falcons, three um Colts five and a half.

397
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Speaker 1: Those are for the like a lot. What about Bengal

398
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Speaker 1: seven and a half. I don't love the hook, like

399
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 1: I feel like we're paying interest. We don't need to pay.

400
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Speaker 1: There might be other games on the board, So I

401
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Speaker 1: would pay because I think that that's what they're trying

402
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:34,439
Speaker 1: to do to you. They're trying to suck you in

403
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Speaker 1: and take Carolina plus seven and a half after the

404
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Speaker 1: last week, just because they know that the public is

405
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Speaker 1: mad at the Bengals. Right, people were loaded up on

406
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Speaker 1: that money night game and they got embarrassed. No way

407
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Speaker 1: is any any of those people taken. That's how the

408
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Speaker 1: public is though, right. We joke all the time about

409
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Speaker 1: that they are bitter, and they're bitter towards this bengaltya

410
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Speaker 1: from last week, and they're like, why would I take

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Speaker 1: them seven and a half? I can take Carolina, who

412
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Speaker 1: looks way better with this qb um. Again, Bengals just

413
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Speaker 1: lost their top corner as well, so that's a big

414
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Speaker 1: deal for DJ more. But I just think a bad

415
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Speaker 1: spot for Carolina playing back back to back road games

416
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Speaker 1: such a crushing defeat last week. Again, if they keep

417
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Speaker 1: it close, I will completely change my grade on p J. Walker.

418
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Speaker 1: I just think you're kind of buying high on him

419
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Speaker 1: coming off back to back really good starts for him

420
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Speaker 1: against defenses are now where near as good as his

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Speaker 1: Bengals defenses. Like this Bengals defense, I problemly issue. They

422
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Speaker 1: are much better than what they showed against that Browns team.

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Speaker 1: Just we've seen the Browns match up well against We

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Speaker 1: know divisional games are weird like that, right, Browns are

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Speaker 1: now four against Joe Joe Burrow since he's been the

426
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Speaker 1: see Hawks plus two against Arizona, and Yeah, I cannot

470
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 1: find a way to walk away from this game because

471
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 1: everything about it says Seattle is a better team catching

472
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,679
Speaker 1: points with a better coach. The only reason not to

473
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:24,159
Speaker 1: do it is because uh, we feel like we're a

474
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,399
Speaker 1: peak Seattle the way we did we felt like we

475
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: were a peak Atlanta. But they're just be team. Yeah.

476
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 1: I was hoping to get more calls about them this

477
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 1: week and find out what more guys are doing. It

478
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 1: seems like most pros are staying away. We're just taking

479
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 1: Seattle like they're not actually back in the Cardinals here,

480
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,440
Speaker 1: which even more, I know it sounds stupid, even more

481
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 1: of being like, well, crap, are we all stepping in

482
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 1: it then, because we're all behying the Seattle like Chad

483
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 1: just talking about here. But the reason I feel comfortable

484
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 1: taking them is what I've talked about last week. I

485
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 1: agree with Chad. I think the Sect were playing better

486
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 1: right now, and their defense has really been playing better

487
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 1: these as a couple of weeks the same defense and

488
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:03,919
Speaker 1: only give up nine points of this Cardinals team, not

489
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 1: even for like two or three weeks ago. So yeah, yeah,

490
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: I could be right, we could be walking right into it.

491
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 1: But two and a half too, that's a good number

492
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 1: for a Seahawks team. That's just good right now. Again,

493
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 1: the number they're the leading their division for a reason,

494
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 1: Like they've been winning these close games, so Um, it

495
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 1: could be right, but there's so much dysfunction right now.

496
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,479
Speaker 1: The Cardinals, I just I can't do it. Like, if

497
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet in this one, I'm gonna do what

498
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:30,719
Speaker 1: the other guys I've talked to is doing. Like I'm

499
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 1: gonna take Seahawks. I'll throw them in a couple of

500
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 1: teachers as well across the eight and a half, across

501
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 1: the seven and a half. But I just can't can't

502
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 1: back the Cardinals sea even though I feel it was

503
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 1: like Chad's right that we might be uh, wait you

504
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 1: a week a little one week too long. I'll keep

505
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 1: back in the Seahawks team. But I like how they're clicking.

506
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 1: The defense is really playing well, and they again they

507
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 1: just for the last month of October, they just had

508
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 1: the rookie of the year at a cornerback and they

509
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 1: have the rookie the running back. So we've clearly see

510
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 1: their drafts and big dividends and they're both healthy. So

511
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 1: that to me, that's the big reason here the Seahawks.

512
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: I just like that team right now. I think we

513
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: just talked ourselves into Seattle to being like very strongly

514
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 1: honor list. Yeah, especially if it's at two and a

515
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 1: half or two Seattle, Washington, Chicago, Atlanta. I would say Detroit, Tennessee,

516
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: indeed Cincinnati are potentials for last one in or two

517
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: potentials to be last ones in to knock somebody out,

518
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 1: depending on numbers. Yeah, and like again, we didn't touch

519
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 1: on it. I know, Chat said you like the Buccaneers.

520
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 1: I talked to too many smart groups. They're they're playing

521
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,719
Speaker 1: the ramp side. I'll stay away. Like again, there's only

522
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: been a handful of games I haven't touched this year.

523
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 1: I'll still probably get on the under in that game.

524
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 1: But I just I got no real read on picking

525
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:58,119
Speaker 1: either side. It just both teams. This is like their season.

526
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,199
Speaker 1: It feels like, right, the Bucks need this, when so

527
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 1: are the Rams just as bad? Like they need this

528
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 1: to stay afloat and maybe I have a chance in

529
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 1: this division. Very telling that neither of these teams made

530
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 1: a move of the trade deadline. The Buccaneers didn't make

531
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: a single move in either of the ramps, which was

532
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,199
Speaker 1: very telling of what the GM's view of. Well, we

533
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 1: thought we were gonna be Super Bowl contenders this year.

534
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: I think the teams are starting to kind of realization

535
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 1: it might be a loss year. For both teams. So

536
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 1: you know we have Evanighbrahams are research or extraordinaire um.

537
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,360
Speaker 1: So I asked him to look something up for me.

538
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 1: Greatest of all time quarterbacks the week after Divorce and

539
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 1: Supermodel against the spread two and seven? Is there? Is? There?

540
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 1: Is there? A dump bump? It was a joke. It

541
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: was a joke. How did you not get that? Because

542
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 1: I don't know what was funny, dude, I made a

543
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:58,879
Speaker 1: funny joke about about a man's getting divorced. You're dancing

544
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 1: on Tom Brady's grave, Chad, for shame? Do you not

545
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 1: have any shame? You you decide to find something precious

546
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 1: that is too precious to joke about. I am shocked.

547
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 1: I'm I'm a hopeless romantic. I'm a hopeless romantic. Sorry,

548
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 1: Chad as someone that has never been married, and nobody

549
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,440
Speaker 1: loves love more than me. Don't bring your That's not true.

550
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 1: You just you're just shipping all over. I made a

551
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: funny betting joke. Listen, my sins humor is so good.

552
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 1: I put a guy who DM me on Twitter, and

553
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 1: then I had a fifteen minute phone call on my

554
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 1: podcast and look where we are now. It's true two thousand,

555
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: two thousand two. When it comes to the economy, these

556
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: are some scary years. Dot com crash hasn't crashed, and

557
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 1: the roller coaster we're going through right now. One thing

558
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 1: is certain. It's a dangerous time to not know your numbers.

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00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:00,960
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573
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 1: Here's where we are. By the way, foxhol we said

574
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 1: it earlier the week Bengals minus seven. Simon says Washington

575
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. Both of those numbers exact

576
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: decision Bears plus five. That numbers moved. What we're saying,

577
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 1: people is if we say something, bet it right away.

578
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,479
Speaker 1: Titans plus twelve and a half. That is our big

579
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 1: balls better the week. These are the teams that we're

580
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 1: leaning into right now on our list that we will evaluate.

581
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 1: That are the lead positions to be in our pay

582
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: five for the contest to win a million dollars. Washington

583
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 1: three and a half, bears five m Falcon's three, Seattle

584
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 1: to having a lot of deep thoughts about Detroit plus

585
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 1: three and a half, Colts plus five and a half.

586
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe Tennessee plus twelve and a half. Yeah, my

587
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:42,239
Speaker 1: dog blocks your dog. Your dog blocks my dog. Who

588
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 1: do we want to put in our money line? Round

589
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: Robin par uh bttle week. Let's start with the Seahawks,

590
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 1: no brainer, Give me a little Atlanta, give me a

591
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: little bit of Washington. Sure? Should we do it? Yeah?

592
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 1: I can't do it. No. No, Like I want to

593
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: say it, but I feel like that'd be such a waste.

594
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 1: What about the trade That's what I was thinking, like,

595
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 1: should we do it? But they haven't? Yeah, all right,

596
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 1: you got I feel like, if if Green Bay is

597
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 1: gonna win, this has to be a game they win.

598
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 1: Like I just need them losing by three, But that's fair.

599
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 1: I'll put the trade in there because we kind of

600
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 1: need it. And also why don't we do in Chicago?

601
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 1: That's that's the final piece. Yea. Here's a great stat

602
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 1: that Brandon Anderson had. He does his story every week

603
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 1: where he sort of talks about the early bets that

604
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 1: he's making in the early leans and stuff. Um, and

605
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 1: he had an amazing stat about teams this year that

606
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 1: have been underdogs between three and ten points this year

607
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 1: against the spread covering sixty at the time. Those teams

608
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 1: are and one straight up r o I on the

609
00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 1: money line. So, uh, Seattle doesn't fall into that, but

610
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 1: Washington does, Atlanta does, the Bears do, and Detroit does. Yeah.

611
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:11,959
Speaker 1: That's crazy though, the year the dog in the enders.

612
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 1: Yeah right, So I like this so for those listening

613
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 1: on it, because I know sometimes it's hard to follow

614
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 1: alone the money line Rob Robin underdog parlay Seattle, Atlanta, Washington, Detroit, Chicago.

615
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 1: That's it. Perfectly scoot something. I'm dominating you and oh

616
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 1: my god, I totally forgot about scoot Roulette. When all

617
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 1: hope is lost, all this left is relief. Let's play

618
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 1: scoots Roulette. Cut it on purpose. You're right, you're dominating

619
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 1: it right now. I started off so hot, crushing it.

620
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 1: I was feeling it was confident, confident, man. I told you, Chad,

621
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 1: I gotta you're getting You're again a little two cockies?

622
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 1: Are you sure? And You're like, I'm feeling pretty good. Yeah,

623
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 1: we sit. We're raight weeks in Simon six and two,

624
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 1: Chad three of the three and fun I know I

625
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 1: read it down check it's that funny thread every time. Yeah,

626
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 1: I don't know. I hate I got it. I don't

627
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 1: do because, like me and Chad talked about our favorite games,

628
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: the lines have moved so much so it's tougher. It's like,

629
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: I want to take Washington with the three Nats gone,

630
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 1: I kind of want to take the Bears, but I

631
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: hate doing the cross stream, so I'll go with the team.

632
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 1: We haven't really picked for anything that you know. I'm

633
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 1: all in on him this year. Somebody as well ride

634
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: with him in Scooch Seahawks plus to give it to me.

635
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 1: All right, you're taking Seattle plus two. It's tough. This

636
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 1: is tough. I I need to win. I need to win,

637
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: and I gotta go and do it with a game

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00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 1: I feel confident about. I feel like it's the Bears,

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00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 1: so I can break your heart twice. Yeah, I'm all

640
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 1: in on this team. And now the Bears. I like

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00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 1: their moves. I like shedding a bad defense. Give it

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00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,839
Speaker 1: a pleasure, not gonna pay. Start getting some assets, give

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00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 1: Justin Fields some weapons. Even though Chase claypo will probably

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00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:13,240
Speaker 1: will make it that big of a difference this weekend,

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00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:17,839
Speaker 1: it's a fade of Miami. Give me the Bears, bear down.

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00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 1: Let's thrill the nation with the T formation. All Right,

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00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 1: we did it, man. We didn't know how it was

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00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 1: gonna go. Getting into Lexington, Matt Mitchell, I don't even

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00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:29,839
Speaker 1: know where in the hotel he is. Wherever you could

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00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 1: find the internet machine to work for Matt Mitchell, for

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00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, I am Shad Millman. Reminder, We're live tomorrow

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00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 1: a keen Land in Lexington, Kentucky, one p m. Eastern

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00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:44,839
Speaker 1: Radio row. Come join us me, Simon. Matt Mitchell will

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00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 1: be there together. This has been the favorites from the

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00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:52,560
Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. You can rate, review, subscribe, Spotify, Apple

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00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.

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00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 1: Until next time, I love you, sa