1 00:00:02,200 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 2 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:08,400 Speaker 1: top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors 3 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, the 4 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:15,240 Speaker 1: housing market and the economy. I'm Amy Morris in Washington. 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carol in London. We're asking if things look 6 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: any better or worse for next year. I'm Brian Curtis 7 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:24,799 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak a ship. We crack the code on the 8 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 1: biggest market trends expected in twenty three for Hong Kong 9 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: and China. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. President Biden ends 10 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 1: a tough year on a high note. That's all straight 11 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven three, on 12 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 1: New York Bloomberg one, Washington d C, Bloomberg one oh 13 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 1: six one Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco, d A 14 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: B Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one nine ten, and 15 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot com and via 16 00:00:55,080 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. Good day to you. I'm Amy 17 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: more As we begin today's program with housing. A bunch 18 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 1: of housing data coming next week, including pending home sales 19 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 1: for November economists we've surveyed are forecasting another drop. You remember, 20 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: pending sales fell in October as buyers faced mortgage rates 21 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 1: pretty much at twenty year highs. Pending home sales are 22 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 1: a leading indicator, so we're watching that one closely for 23 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: you here this coming Wednesday, with live coverage breaking it 24 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,040 Speaker 1: all down for you on Bloomberg Radio. Existing home sales 25 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 1: also fell in November, but it's interesting some are saying 26 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 1: home sales may not fall much more from here, including 27 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 1: Mark Zandy of Moody's Analytics. Yeah, I think in terms 28 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: of home sales, I think we're pretty close to the bottom, 29 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: pretty close to the bottom, and that reflects the peak 30 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: in mortgage rates, which we're back a couple of months 31 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: ago when they were significantly north of seven percent for 32 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: three year fix. Now we're down closer to six percent 33 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: and I don't think we're going back to over seven again. 34 00:01:57,160 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: So I think we're pretty close to the bottom and 35 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 1: sales now. Mark's Andy of Moody's Analytics also tells us 36 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: that home prices could fall more from here because mortgages 37 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 1: are still just taking up too much of people's paychecks 38 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 1: right now. You're right, I mean affordability has been completely 39 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 1: hammered here, and that's the fundamental issue. You know, you 40 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: mix the high mortgage rates with the high previously high 41 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: house prices, it's just too much to bear. I mean, 42 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,640 Speaker 1: I think the average monthly payment for a typical for 43 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 1: American buying a typical priced home is up the seven 44 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: eight hundred bucks from where it was about a year ago. 45 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: And that's just not affordable. So we need a combination 46 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,239 Speaker 1: to get restore affordability and get demand moving in the 47 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 1: right direction again. We need a combination of of lower 48 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 1: mortgage rates, lower house prices, and rising incomes. And my senses, 49 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 1: if mortgage rates come in back to you know, five 50 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: and a half percentag is, which is where I would 51 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 1: expect them in the long run, incomes continue to rise, 52 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 1: we don't go into recession. We need about a ten 53 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: percent decline in house prices to restore for affordability sufficiently. 54 00:02:56,560 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 1: That probably won't happen until late going into twenty I 55 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 1: think we've got a couple of years here before affordability 56 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:04,799 Speaker 1: we'll get to a place where you know, demand will 57 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 1: start to improve again, significantly improve. Now. Mark Zany, chief 58 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: economist of Moodies Analytics, also tells us he thinks the 59 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 1: Fed does not need to go too much higher on 60 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: its benchmark interest rate, and one reason he thinks inflation 61 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 1: is abating is that rents are coming down. Market rents, 62 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: you know, the rents that are being charged people that 63 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: are signing leases today, they've suddenly gone week and down 64 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: for uh for in part because rents are so high 65 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: that people can't afford to rent. So you had so 66 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: called demand destruction and a lot more supply. The supply 67 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: chains are easing and builders can get appliances and building materials. 68 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 1: Labor markets are easing. For an Immigrants that work in 69 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: construction sites are getting on the job, getting a lot 70 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 1: more properties going across the finish line to completion. More 71 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: more supply less demand. Rents are weak, and that's gonna 72 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 1: show up in the cost of housing services over the 73 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 1: course of the next six, six and twelve months. And 74 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: that's one reason I feel reasonably confident that inflation's gonna 75 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: be coming in here pretty quickly. We're also going to 76 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: be getting the SNP Cora Logic Home Price Index this 77 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: coming Tuesday that is expected to show home prices fell 78 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 1: about one and a half percent monthly in October, but 79 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: still gained more than eight percent year on year. Michael 80 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:21,160 Speaker 1: fred Antoni is chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association 81 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:25,239 Speaker 1: and says, if mortgage rates stay lower than the October peak, 82 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: we could see a big wave of home buying starting 83 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 1: this coming March and April. If we can keep rates six, 84 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: maybe a little bit below stakes as we get into 85 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 1: the first quarter of next year, when we're at the 86 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,280 Speaker 1: beginning of the spring buying season, that's really going to 87 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 1: be impactful. A lot of the folks have stepped away 88 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:46,359 Speaker 1: from the market in two and May and June because 89 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: of that sticker shock and stayed away through the fall. 90 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 1: They still need to live somewhere. They're still seeing their 91 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 1: rent increase. So I'm not going to be surprised if 92 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 1: the market shifts a bit more towards sort of the 93 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: first time home buyer segment, because again, a lot of 94 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: the folks that would have planned to have bought last 95 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 1: year put it off. Give him this Vike and raid 96 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 1: swee had just a little bit of leite of relief 97 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,040 Speaker 1: and mortgage rage, they could come back. Michael fred Antonia 98 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,159 Speaker 1: is chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, and he 99 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 1: also tells us he thinks that nationally home prices won't 100 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: fall too much more next year, maybe one down on 101 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: the year. We'll be getting more data on that from 102 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: the f hf A this coming Tuesday. As well. Housing 103 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: demand very affected by the ability to get a mortgage. 104 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:33,039 Speaker 1: Another thing we're watching in the housing market how big 105 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 1: banks are doing on their promise to boost lending to 106 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,920 Speaker 1: black homebuyers. Joining me now to talk about this very 107 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:43,479 Speaker 1: important part of the housing story that's shaping the economic 108 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: health of housing and black Americans in the months and 109 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: years to come, Bloomberg Senior economics writer Sean Donnan. Sean, 110 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 1: it is always a pleasure. Thanks for taking the time 111 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,599 Speaker 1: with us. Hey, thanks so much for having me. Now 112 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:59,679 Speaker 1: set the stage for me here. You did a deep 113 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 1: five into a block in Baltimore. Um, and this actually 114 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 1: wound up being a feature story in a Bloomberg Big 115 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 1: take on the Bloomberg Terminal. It's really fascinating. Tell us 116 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 1: what you found. Yeah, what we dived into was really 117 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:19,159 Speaker 1: one of the main causes of the racial wealth gap 118 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: in America. We have learned a lot about in recent 119 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 1: years about how there's this persistent gap in wealth between 120 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 1: black families and white families, and and how that kind 121 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:33,359 Speaker 1: of nause at the economy. One of the main causes 122 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:38,839 Speaker 1: of that is the home ownership gap. Black families, about 123 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 1: forty of them own the homes that they live in 124 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: versus about of white families. And that is a gap 125 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: that has persisted for years. And one of the things 126 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 1: we saw in recent years is the big banks in America, 127 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 1: alongside other companies, make some big promises to the black community, 128 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,599 Speaker 1: to the USA economy to try and close that racial 129 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: wealth gap, that home ownership gap. And so we dove 130 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: into that, and that took us all the way down 131 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 1: to the block of Waber Captain. Now, when you got there, 132 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 1: when you dig when you were digging deep, let's say, 133 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 1: did you find that promises were made and well, not 134 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: kept necessarily, but at least the attempt was there. So 135 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: the promises that we looked at were some big, ambitious 136 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 1: promises made by the banks. Wells Fargo in made the 137 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: biggest of those. It said that it would lend sixty 138 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: billion dollars that's billion, not a million, sixty billion dollars 139 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: to create two hundred and fifty thousand black homeowners in 140 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: America within a decade and so we looked at the 141 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 1: data and what we found was that actually every year 142 00:07:56,200 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 1: since making that promise, Wells Fargo, which was the biggest 143 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 1: bank player was actually the biggest player in the mortgage 144 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: market in back in that every year since making that promise, 145 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 1: Wells Fargo has actually backed fewer mortgages to black home 146 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 1: buyers than it did the year before, and that it's 147 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: gone down to a point where actually the San Francisco 148 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: based lender underwrote forty fewer mortgages to black buyers than 149 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: it did in when it made that promise. It isn't 150 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: the only bank to have made such a promise. JP 151 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 1: Morgan in October twenty after that summer of racial reckoning 152 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 1: that we had in America, and made a promise to 153 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 1: create or originate mortgages to an additional forty thousand black 154 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 1: and Latino buyers over five years. Now it's much earlier 155 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: into delivering on its promise. But in one it originated 156 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 1: just two more mortgages to black comebuyers than it did 157 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: in the year it said as a benchmark, and it's 158 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 1: lending to Latino home buyers actually went down in Bank 159 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:13,959 Speaker 1: of America has made some some slightly different promises. They're 160 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 1: they're they're broader, they're harder to measure, but it's pledged 161 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: thirty billion dollars in lending and down payment assistance to 162 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: minority and low income homeowners in America. All of this 163 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:33,560 Speaker 1: matters because what we're seeing across the board and what 164 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 1: we've seen over the last fifteen years, it's been a 165 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 1: big dip in in originations and mortgages that are issued 166 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:44,960 Speaker 1: to two black home buyers in America, and that hasn't 167 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 1: caught up with where we were back If you remember 168 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 1: the last financial crisis of the two thousand and eight 169 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: two thousand nine, the subprime crisis was the type of 170 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 1: lending we had back in the early two thousands that 171 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 1: beetn't caught up to those levels until actually in the 172 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:06,079 Speaker 1: middle of the pandemic. And in that time, we've had 173 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 1: a huge housing boom of property boom in America, and 174 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: there's a lot of wealth that's been created for homeowners 175 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 1: in America that black families simply have missed out on 176 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 1: because they have that lower homeownership break. All Right, just 177 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 1: terrific reporting, Sean, Thank you so much for digging deep 178 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 1: into this issue. You can find it on Bloomberg's Big 179 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: Take and on the Bloomberg terminal. Thank you so much, Sean, 180 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 1: thanks for having me, Bloomberg Senior economics writer Sean Donn 181 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: And and coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, things aren't 182 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 1: exactly looking up for the UK economy in three more 183 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:43,679 Speaker 1: on that just ahead. I'm Amy Morris. This is Bloomberg. 184 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak week and our globe will look 185 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. 186 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,559 Speaker 1: I'm Ammy Morris in Washington. Up later in our program 187 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 1: as President Biden really finally hit his stride, but first 188 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 1: a roller coaster year for the UK economy, with political 189 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:19,319 Speaker 1: upheaval adding to the already gloomy economic outlook. Things aren't 190 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 1: looking up in three either. The o E c D 191 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: is warning the UK is said to be the worst 192 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 1: performer in the G twenty Russia for the next two years. 193 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:30,679 Speaker 1: For more, let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg 194 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:34,559 Speaker 1: Daybreak Europe anchor Stephen Carroll. We've had three prime ministers, 195 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 1: four finance ministers, and one ill fated budget in the 196 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 1: UK this year, all of that dragging the pounds than 197 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 1: an inch of parity versus the US dollar at one point. Overall, 198 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 1: it's been quite the wild ride for the UK economy. 199 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 1: Now the Bank of England is expecting a prolonged recession 200 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 1: in twenty three. Joining us to discuss the year that 201 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: was and what's ahead our UK correspondent Lizzie Byrden and 202 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 1: our senior UK economist Dan Hansen. And Lizzie, let's start 203 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 1: with you. One measure of the volatile as we've seen 204 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: this year is in the pound. Talk us through what 205 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 1: were the highlights and low lights for sterling? And two, 206 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:08,199 Speaker 1: I think it's very obvious what the low light would 207 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: have been, but you could say that this whole year 208 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 1: has been an annus horrible ifs for sterling. So we 209 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 1: started the year at one dollar thirty five and then 210 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 1: the pound dropped to a record low in September of 211 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: near adult the parity, and of course that was just 212 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: after the mini budget. And ultimately it was the chaos 213 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:29,560 Speaker 1: in currency and FX markets that ousted Liz Trust. They 214 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:32,559 Speaker 1: were the guardrails on the government in the end. Now 215 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 1: we've got Risci Snack in number ten. His fiscal plans 216 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:40,679 Speaker 1: are obviously more austere than Lizz Truss. Is this Dullness 217 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: dividend has helped to recover the pound somewhat, but even 218 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:49,319 Speaker 1: after the recent rebound, it's still sterling down almost ten 219 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: percent since the start of the year. Yes, dollar strength 220 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:55,079 Speaker 1: has played in but to give it some historical context, 221 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 1: two has been the pound's worst ever apart from the 222 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 1: break sit vote, the financial crisis and Black Wednesday in 223 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: ninety two another collection of greatest hits. Don How is 224 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 1: the UK economy finishing the year compared to how it started? Well, 225 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: it started the year pretty strongly if you look at 226 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: the data, because if you if you remember back then, 227 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 1: it seems an awful long time ago. Now we had 228 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,559 Speaker 1: we had the rebound from the homochron wave, so you 229 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 1: had a pretty strong GDP reading at the start of 230 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: the year, and since then things have really really slowed 231 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: down to the second quarter was there was growth in 232 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:27,839 Speaker 1: the second quarter, but it was weak, and then we've 233 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: obviously had a fall in GDP in the third quarter, 234 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 1: and most forecasts are expecting a fall in GDP in 235 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 1: the final quarter. Though I think I know we've we're 236 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: gonna we're most likely going to have two consecutive quarters 237 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: of negative growth, which as we all know that will 238 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: signal the start of a technical recession, but I think 239 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 1: try and sort of put a positive spin on it. Actually, 240 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 1: those two quarters have been very, very mild in terms 241 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 1: of their drops. So you've had a point two drop 242 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 1: in the in the third quarter and the fourth quarter. 243 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,000 Speaker 1: The Bank of England has said that it thinks that 244 00:13:57,040 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 1: the drop waby point one percent, So yeah, us it's 245 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 1: not good news. But when you put that in the 246 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 1: context of the living squeeze that is occurring here in 247 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 1: the UK, actually the economy is holding up relatively well. Yes, 248 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,320 Speaker 1: we were probably heading into a recession of protractive recession, 249 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:15,640 Speaker 1: but it's going, at least on our forecast, to be 250 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 1: relatively mild. So I know, those aren't Those aren't words 251 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 1: people want to hear, recession, downturn. But actually when you 252 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 1: look at the depth of it relative to his past 253 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 1: down turns, it doesn't look like it's going to be 254 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 1: as bad. Okay, Lizzie. In terms of Sterling, are we 255 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: over the worst of the upheaval that we've seen this 256 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 1: year when we look into three Yes, But says she trepidaciously, 257 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: if you look at the options market, there's currently a 258 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 1: fort chance that the plan is going to get stuck 259 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: between one dollar turn and one dollar thirty for the 260 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: next two years, and that's still it's weakest have a 261 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: trading range. And that's because of the factors Done talks about. 262 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 1: We've got a year of high inflation ahead rising interest 263 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 1: rates to combat it, housing slowdown, and this is a 264 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: content innuation of a long term downward trends. So the 265 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 1: five years before the Brexit vote in twenty sixteen, the 266 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: pounds average was about one dollar fifty nine. The five 267 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 1: years before that it was about one dollar seventy six. 268 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: But it's not just a Brexit thing. It's what Brexit 269 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: has created, more trade frictions with the EU, It's left 270 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 1: the labor market short of workers, it's undermined business investment. 271 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 1: Looking ahead Bank of America. I was there speaking to 272 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 1: the economists last week. They say that Sterling in three 273 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 1: is actually going to be dominated by Brexit and whether 274 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 1: this government can reach a compromise on Brexit, whether they 275 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: can find a sustainable solution on the Northern Ireland Protocol. 276 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 1: And I have to say, even though Rischie Sunac, probably 277 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: for the benefit of the Brexit wing of his party, 278 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: has talked tough on not wanting a Swiss style deal 279 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 1: as as was reported. Actually in the markets, people are 280 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 1: very optimistic that he will be pragmathematic on Brexit. So 281 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 1: for me, three is about feeling how much he's willing 282 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 1: to stand up to his party or in their eyes, 283 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 1: the degree to which he's a true Brexitter. Yeah, indeed, 284 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 1: And of course the deadline for that that everyone's notionally 285 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 1: aiming for is the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement 286 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 1: in April of next year. Is the hope is that 287 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 1: they will have done a deal between the UK and 288 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: the EU by then that will resolve the issues and 289 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 1: allow there to be an official commemoration of that deal 290 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: without the ongoing political tensions that we've seen in Northern 291 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: Ireland on that issue. And optimistically all of this back 292 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 1: and forth is just choreography to show that everybody's trying 293 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,640 Speaker 1: to defend their sides, but hopefully we'll get to something then. Yeah. 294 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 1: Let's take a listen now to what the Bank having 295 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 1: The Governor Andrew Bailey said that their last rate decision 296 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 1: about what he expects in terms of inflation next year. 297 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 1: We think we've seen, possibly this week, the first glimmer 298 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 1: that with the figures that were released this week that 299 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 1: it's not only beginning to come down, but it was 300 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: a little bit below where we thought it would be, 301 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: and that's obviously very good news, but it's a long 302 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 1: way to go, and there is and we expect that 303 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 1: to happen. By the way, we expect inflation to start 304 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: falling more rapidly, probably from the late spring onwards, but 305 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 1: there is a risk that it won't happen in that way, 306 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: particularly because the labor market and labor supply in this 307 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 1: country are so tight. Okay, So that's what Andrew Bailey 308 00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 1: has to say about the outlook for the next year. 309 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 1: Dan Hansen, what are the particular pressure points you're watching 310 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:20,920 Speaker 1: out for going into next year. Andrew Bailey seems to 311 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 1: think things are going to improve pretty soon an inflation, Yes, 312 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,159 Speaker 1: so I think I think you can think of the 313 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:29,120 Speaker 1: inflation path next year in sort of to two elements 314 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,360 Speaker 1: to it. So over the winter and into the first 315 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,119 Speaker 1: quarter of next year, we don't think inflation is going 316 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 1: to drop below ten per cent. I think our forecast 317 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 1: in March in fact, just has it dropping a little 318 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 1: bit low below ten per cent here to nine and 319 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 1: a half. So you've got pretty sticky inflation for the 320 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 1: next sort of four or five months. But then what 321 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,359 Speaker 1: you'll we think at least and we hope you'll see, 322 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 1: is these base effects coming through um and the impact 323 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: of the energy price rises that we've seen this year 324 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 1: falling out of the annual comparison. And what the Governor 325 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,680 Speaker 1: was a loud into there was the good news from 326 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 1: the latest inflation print was that core goods inflation. So 327 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 1: this is a bit of the inflation basket that's been 328 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:11,880 Speaker 1: really impacted by supply constraints, and we've seen it coming 329 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 1: off very sharply in the US. We think those that 330 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:17,680 Speaker 1: that part of the inflation basket is going to ease 331 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 1: quite sharply as well. So I think what you'll get 332 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:24,439 Speaker 1: is is a pretty sharp fall in inflation. But the 333 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:26,359 Speaker 1: key thing to remember here is that I think the 334 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: easy bid is getting from say ten to four or five, 335 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 1: the hard bid is getting from four or five to two. 336 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 1: And what that reflects is what's going on, as the 337 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 1: Governor mentioned there as well, is what's going on in 338 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 1: the labor market, and what's going on in with services inflation, 339 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 1: and before you get services inflation, what's going on in 340 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 1: pay So I think you'll see you'll see a pretty 341 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 1: sharp drop this year, but they're the sort of easy yards. 342 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 1: You've got the hardy yards to come. And that will 343 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 1: that will only really be revealed in the latter half 344 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 1: of three the sort of what's the residual bit of 345 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 1: inflation and that that's really what will that will focus 346 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 1: the bank next year as well, Lizzie, we are rattling 347 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 1: towards the end of the year in the UK and 348 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: amidst this massive wave of strikes. Is that going to 349 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 1: be a continuing theme when we think about the labor 350 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:16,080 Speaker 1: Marcus next year. Well, my colleague Philip aldric Our, senior 351 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 1: UK Economics reporter, had a really interesting conversation with Charles Goodhart, 352 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,400 Speaker 1: who's a former bankoving the policymaker, and he said that 353 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 1: it might not just be a winter of discontent, it 354 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:31,200 Speaker 1: could be a year of discontent unless the government agrees 355 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 1: to a wage deal to end this industrial action. Labor's 356 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,879 Speaker 1: point the opposition Labor Party is that you need to 357 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 1: treat it as a whole rather than strike by strike, 358 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: union by union. And if you think about what DNS 359 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 1: saying that this inflation is going to be sticky, it's 360 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 1: not going to drop below ten percent for four to 361 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 1: five months. That really keeps the pressure on the government. Okay, 362 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 1: thank you very much to Blomberg's UK corresponded Lizzie Burden, 363 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 1: and to our senior UK economist Dan Hansen as well. 364 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 1: I'm even Carl in London. You can catch us every 365 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 1: weekday morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, beginning at six 366 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,880 Speaker 1: am in London and one am on Wall Streets. Thank you, Stephen. 367 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,399 Speaker 1: Coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. President Biden continues to 368 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 1: chalk up successes. But can it last? We'll find out. 369 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:23,600 Speaker 1: I'm Amy Morris. This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from the 370 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg in our active broker studio in New York. Bloomberg 371 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:31,360 Speaker 1: Even three oh to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, 372 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg one O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine 373 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 1: sixty to the country Sirius XM Channel one nineteen to 374 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 1: London d A B Digital Radio, and around the globe 375 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business Act and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This 376 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg day Break Weekend. I'm Amy Morris in Washington 377 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,679 Speaker 1: with your global look ahead at the top stories for 378 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 1: investors in the coming week has does it in Biden 379 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,879 Speaker 1: really finally hit his stride. Were more here in our 380 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg NY nine one newsroom in Washington. We go to 381 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On host Joe Matthew. Jo thank you Amy. 382 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 1: President Biden feeling good as he heads into the new 383 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 1: year after what was arguably the best mid term performance 384 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:18,120 Speaker 1: by a sitting president in decades. The President saying, it's 385 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 1: clear Americans are committed to protecting and defending democracy, a 386 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 1: strong rejection of election deniers at every level, from those 387 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,360 Speaker 1: seeking lead our states and those of seeking to serve 388 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,400 Speaker 1: in Congress, and also those seeking to oversee the election. 389 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,120 Speaker 1: Joining us now to talk about this, Bloomberg White House 390 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,159 Speaker 1: reporter Josh wind Grove, Josh, happy holiday, is great to 391 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:39,120 Speaker 1: see you. Thank you for being here as we talk 392 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: about this moment for Joe Biden. Uh, not only did 393 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 1: he outperform in the mid terms, your reporting shows that 394 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:47,879 Speaker 1: he did a bit of an end run around his 395 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 1: own advisors by insisting that democracy itself beyond the ballot 396 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: as opposed to so many other issues that were in 397 00:21:55,119 --> 00:22:01,160 Speaker 1: the air. I guess his instincts were correct. Yeah, I think, Look, 398 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,439 Speaker 1: this is a guy that likes to measure twice or 399 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 1: three times and four times, five times and then cut once. Right, 400 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,719 Speaker 1: Like the knock on that strategy is sometimes they get 401 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: to be a little flat footed. But on the flip side, 402 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 1: you know he thinks that he keeps his eye on 403 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 1: the ball or you know, has a focus that he's 404 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,879 Speaker 1: not distracted. Uh. You know, rewind to the start of 405 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,360 Speaker 1: the year, right, you know, the inflation was really taking off, 406 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 1: the COVID's cases. We all remember the omicron start of 407 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 1: Jurga was insane. Of course, Russia was about to invade Ukraine. 408 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,919 Speaker 1: Things were in installed in Congress, everything had collapsed with 409 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 1: Mansion and you know, things turned around. They got some 410 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 1: bills through Congress. The mid term performance are pretty happy 411 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:40,199 Speaker 1: about and so on balance, you had Biden there being like, 412 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 1: how can I frame this? How do we avoid the 413 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: blood bath politically speaking that presidents usually see in the 414 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 1: middle of their first term. And you know he's been 415 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:51,679 Speaker 1: sitting down and talking with historians that sort of thing. 416 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: So that's when you got this focus on we gotta 417 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 1: make it on democracy. We've gotta be like, vote for 418 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: anyone that will honor the result of the vote. Do 419 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: you remember he did that speech in Philly that kind 420 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,239 Speaker 1: of bombed. It was like a weird background and like 421 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:08,119 Speaker 1: red and very like you know, the seventies horror film 422 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,439 Speaker 1: kind of like look. So he did sort of took 423 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:11,879 Speaker 1: it a second kick at the can, a bit of 424 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,680 Speaker 1: a haphazard one here in d C. But they think 425 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 1: that that was part of the message that resonated, of 426 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 1: course in the broader context about their messages as well, 427 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,160 Speaker 1: you know, things like that moves on student loans for instance, 428 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 1: motivating young voters, things like that, you know, cocktail and stuff. 429 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 1: He's buoyant right now. You can tell, because he's a 430 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,480 Speaker 1: little chippy with the press that he feels boldened a 431 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,159 Speaker 1: little bit right now. I like new Gingrich's take in 432 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:38,400 Speaker 1: your piece the former speaker basically referring to Joe Biden's 433 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:43,439 Speaker 1: challenges that lead many Republicans to underestimate him, his speech impediment, 434 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 1: his memory lapses that lead new Gingrich to compare Joe 435 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 1: Biden to Eisenhower or even Ronald Reagan. Yeah. Well, Gingrich 436 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:51,399 Speaker 1: just kind of put himself out on a limb, right 437 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,920 Speaker 1: If you read his blog post, essentially what it is 438 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:59,919 Speaker 1: he's he's enumerating a pretty sharp, grueling attack on Joe Bay. 439 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,679 Speaker 1: But the headline is we keep underestimating. In other words, 440 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 1: he's trying to convince his fellow sort of Republican brethren 441 00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 1: that that just sort of casting Biden is like, you know, 442 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 1: either extreme, which voters tend not to believe because he's 443 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,719 Speaker 1: been around it kind of known quantity, or as you know, 444 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 1: bumbling grandpa, great grandpa or whatever. Um. Then um. Then 445 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 1: they sort of get away from the stuff that actually 446 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 1: might work more and being like we should attack him 447 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,120 Speaker 1: for his policy. So you have you have Gingrich saying, look, 448 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 1: if we just write Joe Biden off because he's now 449 00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 1: eighty years old and we think he's going to stumble 450 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 1: his way out of the presidency out of sixteen hundred Pennsylvania, 451 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 1: then he thinks that they should give their head a shake. 452 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 1: Because that's the argument from Gingris. You know, we reached 453 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,679 Speaker 1: out to a lot of Republicans for their thoughts on 454 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:44,439 Speaker 1: what new Gingridge is saying, we got a lot of 455 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 1: we got a lot of no responses. So you know, 456 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,119 Speaker 1: it's not it's not a it's it's a pitch that 457 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 1: they're willing to let sail right by rather than thinking 458 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,879 Speaker 1: a wing at So we'll see where whether Gingrich is 459 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 1: speaking for the sort of silent you know, chunk of 460 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 1: the party who might think that. But remember we're sitting here. 461 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,399 Speaker 1: You know, Joe b and has not formally announced his 462 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,359 Speaker 1: re election campaign, but gosh, all signs point yes, and 463 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 1: it's right. This is a guy that is not looking 464 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,960 Speaker 1: for his exit, and he'll have inflation waiting for him 465 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,040 Speaker 1: when he makes that decision and when he enters the 466 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 1: new year and the new Congress begins as he tries 467 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 1: to put a good face on all in the world 468 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: where inflation is rising a double digits, so many major 469 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 1: economies around the world. Inflation is coming down in America, 470 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 1: then again, ask Muhammadhill area. Inflation is not going to 471 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,880 Speaker 1: come down in an orderly fashion. We're gonna get sticky inflation. 472 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 1: The Bloomberg opinion columnists on Bloomberg. Of course, sticky inflation. 473 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 1: It's come down a bit, the feed is still working, 474 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 1: and you've also got the prospect of breaking the job 475 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 1: market to fix the inflation issue. Josh, how do you 476 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 1: square that when you're starting a re election campaign? You know, Look, yeah, 477 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,240 Speaker 1: the chances that even if it doesn't come down, you know, 478 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 1: Joe Biden could be facing a recession either a year 479 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 1: or even six months out of the next election. That 480 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:59,360 Speaker 1: sucks for any for any president reelection technical term, right, yeah, 481 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,760 Speaker 1: that's that's the that's the macro term. Um. So you 482 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:05,480 Speaker 1: know he right now. I think that they are praying 483 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:07,600 Speaker 1: that some of the stuff kicks in and in the meantime, 484 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 1: some of the stuff that they have done, which is 485 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 1: a little bit nibbling around the edges, were being honest, 486 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,639 Speaker 1: but not for the people who it affects. It starts 487 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 1: to kicking things like Medicare capping the cost of insulin 488 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,359 Speaker 1: for certain people starting in January. That's a big deal. 489 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: Biden's approach to inflation has essentially been we can try 490 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,840 Speaker 1: to lower certain costs per month for certain people to 491 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,240 Speaker 1: try to ease the pain across the board and cost 492 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,239 Speaker 1: that everyone in America is facing. The thing is, if 493 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:35,119 Speaker 1: he did get a recession, energy prices would fall, food 494 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 1: prices would fall. He enters the final year of a 495 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 1: presidential campaign, inflation is licked. We're going to fix the economy, 496 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 1: and the guy I'm running against it could be under 497 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:49,919 Speaker 1: indictment by them. Yeah, I mean yeah, I don't know 498 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,400 Speaker 1: that any president wants to see a bunch of people 499 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 1: losing their jobs, and right and then, like equity matters 500 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,399 Speaker 1: to this administration. I mean, some people think it might 501 00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 1: be virtue signaling here and there, but like the people 502 00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 1: that will lose their jobs are the types of people 503 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,879 Speaker 1: workers that Joe Biden at least rhetorically talks about a lot, Right, 504 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,719 Speaker 1: There are people that that live paycheck to paycheck, hourly 505 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 1: wage workers, often minority, just like he grew up right 506 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: exactly so, like he genuinely seems to just believe that 507 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 1: he thinks that there has to be a third way, 508 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,280 Speaker 1: There has to be a magical sort of landing here 509 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,919 Speaker 1: where And you know, he might be right, I suppose, 510 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 1: I don't know, but that whereby the inplation can come 511 00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 1: down and all those folks who so often are the 512 00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,080 Speaker 1: first ones to take it on the chin are the 513 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:32,880 Speaker 1: ones that don't have to do it yet again, I think, 514 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:34,439 Speaker 1: and that that is what he's sort of holding his 515 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: breath on. Spending time with Josh wind Growth here as 516 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 1: we slide into the new year, and I have to 517 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 1: ask you about Ukraine. What a performance this week in 518 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:45,639 Speaker 1: an appearance to historic appearance from President Zelenski speaking to 519 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 1: a joint session of Congress. Course, he spent most of 520 00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 1: his day with President Biden at the White House, and 521 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 1: there was one resounding message, Your money is not cheerity. 522 00:27:55,680 --> 00:28:00,119 Speaker 1: It's an investment in the global security, and dumont or 523 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,920 Speaker 1: see that we handle in the most responsible way. So 524 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 1: in a remaining moment here, Josh, how much of a 525 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 1: challenge is it going to be for Joe Biden to 526 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,679 Speaker 1: continue the money and the weapons flowing to Ukraine in 527 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 1: this new Congress? We don't know. There's one challenge that 528 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 1: he can control or has more control over, and there's 529 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:20,119 Speaker 1: another he can First just to back up very quickly, 530 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:22,320 Speaker 1: you know, this is a surprise. It is that Biden 531 00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:26,120 Speaker 1: is seems pretty jazz that he was that that Zelenski 532 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:27,920 Speaker 1: is here, he seems to have gotten along well with him. 533 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,919 Speaker 1: The takeaway is twofold number one, big standing ovations for Zelenski, 534 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 1: notable exceptions among top Republicans, or at least prominent Republicans. 535 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 1: The question is the billion or so that that that 536 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 1: that the OMNI carved out for Ukraine? Is that the 537 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 1: last bucket for Ukraine? Will Kevin McCarthy or whoever led 538 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,160 Speaker 1: Republican House allowed another dollar to go at the door 539 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:53,080 Speaker 1: very unclear. The second thing which got toward Zelenski publicly 540 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 1: asked for in Congress next to buy him wherever he could, 541 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 1: you know, shouting from the rooftops was more weaponry, more 542 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,600 Speaker 1: band's weaponry, particularly offensive weaponry, and Biden has been hesitant 543 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 1: something that's a different story. I want to trigger something, 544 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 1: so that's real rob will Biden start ratching up the 545 00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 1: type of gear he's willing to send. Lensky's already been 546 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,680 Speaker 1: ratching it up, including the Patriot miss that he announced, 547 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 1: and will Congress might be a different conversation, different conversation 548 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,520 Speaker 1: he certainly does not seem Keenanity's hinted that he thinks 549 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,440 Speaker 1: NATO's support for the war would fall apart if you 550 00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,560 Speaker 1: did it. So, so Biden has his own reservations about 551 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: what to send. Congress has their own reservations about what 552 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,320 Speaker 1: check to right. Those two things, you know, are are 553 00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 1: hanging in the background, But the top line was Joe 554 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 1: Biden standing there and pledging Ukraine that US will be 555 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 1: there for them as long as they're in this war. 556 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,320 Speaker 1: Historic moment. Josh wind Grove is the man that Joe 557 00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,360 Speaker 1: Biden looked at and said, if I had his voice 558 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,440 Speaker 1: I would have been elected president a lot earlier. Yeah, yeah, great, 559 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 1: It's great to see what am I doing with my 560 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,400 Speaker 1: life here. Well, you're talking on the radio. Everyone's listening 561 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:51,120 Speaker 1: to your voice. Happy Holidays, Happy New Year, see twenty three. 562 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 1: Thank you, Bloomberg White House reporter Josh wind Grove. Amy, 563 00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 1: All right, thank you, Joe. That was Joe Matthew, host 564 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Sound On from our Bloomberg Noddy nine one 565 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 1: news room here in Washington. And you can hear Sound 566 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 1: On with Joe Matthew weekdays at five pm Wall Street Time. 567 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 1: And for more political news coverage, you can tune into 568 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,640 Speaker 1: Balance of Power with David weston weekdays at noon Wall 569 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,800 Speaker 1: Street Time. All of that right here on Bloomberg Radio. 570 00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,320 Speaker 1: Coming up next on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend to look at 571 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,800 Speaker 1: market trends to watch out for in China. I'm Amy Morris, 572 00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:47,040 Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg m This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, 573 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:50,280 Speaker 1: our global look ahead at the top stories for investors 574 00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:53,760 Speaker 1: in the coming week. I'm Amy Morris in Washington. COVID 575 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:57,840 Speaker 1: is still very much hanging over China. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia 576 00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 1: host Brian Curtis keeping track of all of it for US, 577 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,280 Speaker 1: Brian Amy, China is reopening and Hong Kong is trying 578 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 1: to rest back the mantle of Asia's world city. As 579 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,920 Speaker 1: a result, we're curious what new trends we might see 580 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,360 Speaker 1: in markets in twenty twenty three for Hong Kong and 581 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:18,280 Speaker 1: China joining US now, is Sofia Orte Costa, Bloomberg's chief 582 00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:22,800 Speaker 1: China Markets correspondent Sofia After a couple of very tough 583 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 1: years for these two markets, might we see better market 584 00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:29,760 Speaker 1: conditions in three? I think the living with COVID story 585 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 1: UM is the biggest theme going into next year. You know, 586 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,040 Speaker 1: there's still a lot of questions over whether this is 587 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 1: reckless or not. Some people are calling it the big 588 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 1: U turn, but it's been so dramatic for China, it's 589 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 1: perhaps the big V turn on COVID zero. So UM. 590 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:48,640 Speaker 1: The key thing here is data. You know, will China's 591 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:53,120 Speaker 1: reopening be positive or negative on the economy? Will it 592 00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,560 Speaker 1: be good or bad for consumption? Is they're going to 593 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:59,400 Speaker 1: be short term gain, short term pain, um for longer 594 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:03,280 Speaker 1: term gain in terms of growth and also for the 595 00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:05,640 Speaker 1: rest of the world. You know, is it inflationary or 596 00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 1: will it actually lead to deflation, So it will be 597 00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 1: harder actually to track the effect of the outbreak on 598 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 1: China's economy because actually China releases after releasing December data, 599 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:21,360 Speaker 1: it only then releases combined January and February data in March, 600 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,080 Speaker 1: So it will be a while before we get any 601 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 1: kind of real sense of on the ground impact from this. 602 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 1: Do we have a sense that markets will get well 603 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 1: out in front of the economy or because the reopening 604 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 1: has been so uneven so far, will investors really wait 605 00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,080 Speaker 1: until they see the proof in the pudding. Investors have 606 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,280 Speaker 1: kind of priced in the first leg of the reopening 607 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,719 Speaker 1: story um at some some cull side analysts saying that 608 00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 1: about forty has been priced in. I mean, also, Brian, 609 00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:56,720 Speaker 1: let's not forget the huge outflows that Chinese assets had 610 00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:01,560 Speaker 1: in It really didn't take much um to move to 611 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:03,520 Speaker 1: move the needle when it came to markets, you know, 612 00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 1: you only had to revert to the mean. Is already 613 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:12,120 Speaker 1: a gain for for Chinese stocks. I'm curious whether investors 614 00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,800 Speaker 1: think the Party has done a flip flop on market 615 00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:20,680 Speaker 1: friendly and business friendly policies going forward and changing from 616 00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 1: what used to be pretty restrictive policy over the past 617 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:27,080 Speaker 1: eighteen to twenty four months. It's been perhaps the biggest 618 00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:31,320 Speaker 1: surprise um and in this year is the policy environments 619 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:36,200 Speaker 1: turning really more friendly for for China China investing. We 620 00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 1: tend to think that China cares cares more about the 621 00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:42,240 Speaker 1: economy than it does about markets, and now it's all 622 00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:46,280 Speaker 1: about creating a better environment and market confidence. Really taking 623 00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 1: sense of stage, this is highly unusual. The last time 624 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,520 Speaker 1: we heard any kind of wording around this was in 625 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:57,880 Speaker 1: eighteen when the trade war was really hammering confidence in 626 00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:01,280 Speaker 1: Chinese markets. So what's that means? We still don't know. 627 00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 1: Um A lot of support for a private enterprise seems 628 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:09,560 Speaker 1: to be the focus. Also refinancing help for private developers. 629 00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,920 Speaker 1: You know, we're seeing a revival in in in financing 630 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,640 Speaker 1: efforts for property companies. That is extremely different and a 631 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,399 Speaker 1: complete one eighty to what to the trends we've seen 632 00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,959 Speaker 1: in in the past two years, Is there one big 633 00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,040 Speaker 1: mega trend we can identify for next year? One big 634 00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:29,719 Speaker 1: mega trend? I mean beyond the reopening story, um is, 635 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:33,960 Speaker 1: I think decoupling, whether that's still a thing. Every single 636 00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:39,000 Speaker 1: geopolitical analyst was talking about that and freendch shoring whether 637 00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,600 Speaker 1: that's whether people are moving out of China and whether 638 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:46,960 Speaker 1: you know, China really showing itself as a more friendly 639 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,319 Speaker 1: actor in the global stage. We seem to get we 640 00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,080 Speaker 1: seem to be getting um some evidence of that now. 641 00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:58,400 Speaker 1: So is China aligning itself less with other actors like 642 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,399 Speaker 1: like Russia and moving close to the West. That would 643 00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:05,360 Speaker 1: be a hugely positive development when it comes to investing 644 00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:09,720 Speaker 1: in China. Sophia, thanks so much. Always enjoy your insight. 645 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:14,760 Speaker 1: Sophia Orte Costa, Bloomberg's chief China Markets correspondent. I'm Brian Curtis, 646 00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,560 Speaker 1: along with Doug Krisner. You can catch us every weekday 647 00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:21,200 Speaker 1: here for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, beginning at seven am in 648 00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:25,080 Speaker 1: Hong Kong and six pm on Wall Street. Amy all right, 649 00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,520 Speaker 1: thank you, Brian, and that does it for this edition 650 00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,680 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at 651 00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,200 Speaker 1: five am Wall Street time, where the latest on markets 652 00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:35,880 Speaker 1: overseas and the news you being to start your day. 653 00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,200 Speaker 1: I'm Amy Morris. This is Bloomberg