WEBVTT - Jobs Day, Berkshire, and Kentucky Derby (Podcast) 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:04.000 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.080 --> 0:00:05.280 my co host Matt Miller. 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:09.600 Every business day, we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:13.600 and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.279 Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:20.520 you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:24.680 Amy Glacier, senior at VP of Business Operations of the 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:26.720 firm's called a deco, and a deco was really it's 0:00:26.720 --> 0:00:31.320 a staffing company, permanent placement, outsourcing, career transition really tied 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:34.239 into the whole labor market and getting people placed in 0:00:34.440 --> 0:00:37.560 this economy. So Amy's got a great perspective, So Amy 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:40.120 some I mean, I'm not sure anybody really saw these 0:00:40.159 --> 0:00:41.479 numbers coming this morning. 0:00:41.680 --> 0:00:43.400 What's the job market look like to you out there? 0:00:44.800 --> 0:00:47.720 Yeah, so it wasn't much of a surprise. Actually, from 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:50.720 what we're seeing boots on the ground, we're still seeing 0:00:51.040 --> 0:00:55.120 leisure and hospitalities super hot. I think, you know, in 0:00:55.160 --> 0:00:58.760 the headlines, there have been all these news about layoffs 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:04.000 and recession, and from a broader petion perspective, people are concerned. 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:06.800 But when you really dig in to the trends. There 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:11.200 are still some really hot opportunities out there, and lots 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:13.560 of employers that are still hungry for talent, you know, 0:01:13.720 --> 0:01:17.000 especially in restaurants and hotels as they're gearing up for 0:01:17.040 --> 0:01:18.160 the busy travel season. 0:01:18.880 --> 0:01:21.800 And are they getting paid, are they getting raises? Is 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:26.160 are the you know, salaries and wages keeping up with inflation. 0:01:27.600 --> 0:01:30.280 So salaries and wages are not keeping up with inflation, 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:33.080 and that's been a ongoing concern for the past six 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:37.600 months from candidates. So one of the major trends we're 0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:41.320 seeing is that, especially for an hourly workforce, employers are 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:45.560 choosing to put more weight on that base rate. So 0:01:45.560 --> 0:01:49.680 we're seeing less sign on bonuses, less retention bonuses, less 0:01:49.680 --> 0:01:53.280 of those extra monetary perks that tied to total compensation 0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:57.680 in favor of purely putting it in the hourly work rate. 0:01:57.840 --> 0:02:00.960 What we're also seeing is kind of this entrance into 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:03.400 the part time workforce for a lot of folks that 0:02:03.440 --> 0:02:05.400 have been sitting on the sideline. So I was actually 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:08.960 a little bit surprised that the participation rate didn't reflect that, 0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:11.960 because that is something we're seeing on the ground that 0:02:12.080 --> 0:02:14.919 as wages aren't keeping up with inflation, folks that are 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:18.560 looking for secondary jobs or to return to the workforce, 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:20.440 especially in a part time capacity. 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:22.560 All Right, I just wanted to disclose that all four 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:25.400 of the Sweeney offspring are gainfully employed in this economy. 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:26.560 So we're contributing. 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:29.040 But I see the Jolts number, Amy, and you know 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:31.320 it was it came down, but it's still almost you know, 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:35.360 nine and a half million people out there are I'm sorry, 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:37.079 you know, kind of open positions. 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:40.639 Where's everybody? Why isn't every Why aren't more people kind 0:02:40.639 --> 0:02:41.560 of in the workforce. 0:02:41.560 --> 0:02:44.200 I say, the participation rate of sixty two point six percent, 0:02:44.760 --> 0:02:46.560 I don't know, it seems kind of low to me. 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:49.160 It should be higher. Talk to us about that part 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:49.360 of it. 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:52.200 Yeah, so I think you know, we were at two 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:55.480 jobs for every candidate seeking employment. Now we're at one 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:58.080 point six. The reality of the situation is, even if 0:02:58.120 --> 0:03:00.959 we get down to a one point one, it doesn't 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:04.920 translate into an exact match of where the job opportunities 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:08.360 are and where the worker resides or what their skill 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:11.480 set is. So we're going to continue to see that 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:15.480 talent scarcity just as a simple matter of where they 0:03:15.480 --> 0:03:17.880 physically might live or what their skill set. 0:03:18.320 --> 0:03:23.160 Is is a regional change or differences out there these days, 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:26.280 because it just seems like everybody and their brothers going 0:03:26.320 --> 0:03:29.960 to Florida or Texas, and I know, is there some 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:32.480 regional bias out or differences out there? 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:37.000 We're absolutely seeing the East Coast is white hot right 0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:39.920 now in terms of hiring, along with the central part 0:03:39.960 --> 0:03:41.920 and southern part of the US. Now, part of that 0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:45.520 also translates into the leisure and hospitality time of year. 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:49.280 People and folks are starting to gear up for the 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:54.280 summer travel explosion. Yeah, exactly. Well, the other cool trends 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:56.920 we're seeing right now. I really think, guys, this is 0:03:56.920 --> 0:04:00.280 going to be the summer of out of office seeing 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:03.080 people that have stockpile PTO and haven't been able to 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:07.480 take off over the past two years, especially in some 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:11.520 of those hourly workforce and essential workers really taking the 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:15.360 opportunity this year to take that PTO time and focus 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:17.720 on their personal time off. 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:21.560 Yes, okay, yes, I'm not familiar with the acronyms. 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:23.680 Because you've been in Bloomberg for twenty three years. Yeah, 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:24.480 we had a seed. 0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:27.120 Days, we have tea days, yes, okay, So well, I 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:29.640 think Paul is one of those people. He has been 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:34.440 He's been bitterly against working from home until he bought 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:36.840 a beach house on the shore. And I think this, 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:38.960 so I'm all in, He's going to be working from 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:42.200 home a lot. How is that working out? How is 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:45.680 that changing? I mean, are our people are that you 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:49.240 place still insisting on very flexible workplaces? 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:53.920 They're absolutely insisting on flexible workplaces. I think what might 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:57.080 be surprising to some is by flexible, they don't all 0:04:57.120 --> 0:05:00.240 mean remote work from home one hundred percent of the time. 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:03.480 We've seen that. You know, the American worker really has 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:08.400 a strong appetite for collaboration, being in person coffee chats, 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:11.560 talking with their fellow employees. They just don't want to 0:05:11.560 --> 0:05:13.800 do it five days a week. So the employers that 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:16.120 are getting it right and winning right now are opting 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:19.520 more for that hybrid work opportunity where sure you come 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:21.440 into the office to maybe three days a week, that 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:24.760 you have flexibility in picking those days, and both the 0:05:24.760 --> 0:05:28.880 employer and the worker are benefiting from that flexible schedule. 0:05:29.200 --> 0:05:31.800 How big of a Kentucky Wildcat fan are you, Amy? 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:35.039 I have a third generation Wildcat grad. 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:40.039 Wowret big dog gets here undergrad enter MBA from the 0:05:40.120 --> 0:05:41.120 University of Kentucky. 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:41.640 How good is that? 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:44.039 And it's Kentucky Derby weekend, so I'm sure that's big 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:46.640 for you, So that'd be cool. We'll be watching Amy Glacier, 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.720 Senior VP of Business Operations at a Deco. They're a 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:52.200 big staffing company out there, and they got their finger 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:53.680 on the pulse of kind of what's going on in 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:56.200 terms of hiring and firing out there in the economy. Boy, 0:05:56.200 --> 0:06:00.240 it was a blowout jobless our jobs jobs number today, 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:02.320 although again there was a revision a prior month. 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:06.640 But you're listening to the team. Ken's are Live program 0:06:06.720 --> 0:06:10.680 Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am eastering on Bloomberg dot Com, 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:13.920 the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:16.240 on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:19.800 I want to get right to our next guest, Jonathan Hurdle, 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:22.919 executive chairman of Hurdle, Callahan and Company. I think you 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:25.159 started that thing around nineteen eighty eight. Before that, he 0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:27.760 was a little firm called Goldman. Before that, he was 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:30.520 an officer in the United States Marine Corps for seven years. 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:33.000 So we thank him for service. But for me, the 0:06:33.120 --> 0:06:34.520 highlight is MBA. 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:35.560 From Penn State. 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:38.760 Go Nitney Lions, Jonathan, You've got a lot of experience, 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:39.960 You've got a lot of perspective. 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:41.680 Let's start with. 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:44.800 The banking stuff, I mean, the banking stocks. We're not 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:48.560 sure whether to call this a crisis, turmoil stress. How 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:49.960 do you kind of view what's happening with some of 0:06:49.960 --> 0:06:50.760 our regional banks. 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:52.400 First of all, I like to think about it as 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:55.040 part of the cycle. We had this extended cycle. And 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:58.000 when you look at a bank, they have to make loans, 0:06:58.120 --> 0:06:59.600 and they have to have a how do they make 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:01.479 their decisions? And if you're in the up part of 0:07:01.480 --> 0:07:04.719 a cycle, where things are accelerating, you can be more aggressive. 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:07.440 But you don't know how that bank is doing until 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:09.440 you go through the other part of the cycle, the downturn. 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:11.760 And if you can measure their performance trough to trough, 0:07:12.200 --> 0:07:14.760 then you see who the better bankers are. So we 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:18.480 had this weirdly extended easy money cycle. You know, we're 0:07:18.520 --> 0:07:20.440 at the end of the era of easy money, and 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:24.160 so that unprecedented era of easy money created a lot 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:27.760 of excess, and part of it was this extended economic boom, 0:07:28.080 --> 0:07:30.600 which lulled a lot of people into a sense of 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:35.400 laissez faire about their risk policies and so forth. And 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:38.560 then we got an interest rate shock, and it wasn't 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:40.240 an increase. It was a shock when you think of 0:07:40.360 --> 0:07:42.320 going just to make the number simple one to three 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:44.640 or you know, two to four or one to four, 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:47.040 so it is a triple and so you get that 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:49.360 kind of we have an economy and a banking system 0:07:49.440 --> 0:07:52.600 based on basically free money. And then at the same 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:56.200 time this long cycle which lulled people to sleep. It 0:07:56.280 --> 0:07:59.920 doesn't make It doesn't surprise anyone that we have problem 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:01.520 with banks, I think. 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:06.520 So I just wonder if a bank, and I won't 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:10.400 pick a specific one, but if a regional bank does 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:14.200 have enough assets to cover deposits, does it really matter 0:08:14.280 --> 0:08:16.600 if the shares are driven down to zero? I mean 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:22.040 beyond obviously the pain the shareholder feels. Does it matter 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:23.560 for the wider banking system. 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:27.080 Well, it only matters if it becomes a vicious cycle. 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:31.600 So the stock price is key because it's sentiment. And 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:35.400 we look at what happened to pack West, and so 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:38.520 you could say, well, this circumstance isn't so bad, but 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:41.000 the run on the stock could make it bad. It's 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:44.040 just from a standpoint of psychology. And then the other 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:46.640 big factor is that we have this only. 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:47.920 The part I don't get though, how does the run 0:08:48.000 --> 0:08:50.160 on the stock make it bad? I mean, I get 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:54.160 that the bank could fail, but if we are in 0:08:54.240 --> 0:08:56.280 a place where a bank can fail, I think Joe 0:08:56.320 --> 0:08:58.360 Wisenheal put it like, if we're at a place where 0:08:58.400 --> 0:09:00.680 a bank can fail, like a laundry mat fail, we're okay. 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:04.720 Well, I think what happens is more people get frightened 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:07.400 because they see this news and the stock price is plumbting, 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:09.440 and they call and get their deposits out right. 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:11.720 So that's the concern. But that's not what we've seen happen. 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:13.439 Well, that's why this and that's one of the reasons 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:14.880 the stock is bouncing back, right. 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:19.360 I mean, First Republic, how many billions of dollars of 0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:23.040 uninsured deposits we're still there when JP Morgan took it over. 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:26.160 That's how sticky bank deposits are. It is, all right, 0:09:26.200 --> 0:09:27.920 by the way, twenty billion is the number. 0:09:27.840 --> 0:09:30.520 Yes, so Jonathan, all right, So we've got the banking 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:31.400 issue out there. 0:09:31.480 --> 0:09:32.120 That's a concern. 0:09:33.200 --> 0:09:36.240 Most more recently, we had a job's number today that 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:40.120 was a blowout number. We had a revision downward for 0:09:40.160 --> 0:09:42.000 the prior month, so that tempers it a little bit. 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:45.599 But are you where's what's your recession call? Because I 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:46.920 have a hard time when people come in here and 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:49.319 talk about recession when I got everybody who wants the 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:50.320 job's got a job. 0:09:50.400 --> 0:09:52.280 Right, And I think the thing is it shouldn't be 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:54.920 a binary discussion. We could have a moderate decession, we 0:09:55.000 --> 0:09:57.000 could have no recession, we could have a soft lining, 0:09:57.040 --> 0:09:58.520 we could have a semi soft line. I mean, I 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:00.760 really think that's where you have to be. It's hard 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:03.559 to call in a binary way. My personal feeling is 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:06.160 we're likely to have a mild recession. That's just my 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:08.839 personal feeling. And then the answer to that is so 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:11.360 what I mean? So so what I mean? It's just 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:14.400 we're still managing earnings. Earnings are coming better than expected. 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:16.319 We have the best managers in the world working on 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:19.599 these stocks. So I think it's all binary. Is a 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:20.440 hard call, okay. 0:10:21.120 --> 0:10:24.800 I mean, if we have unemployment at three point four percent, 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:28.640 is it possible to get inflation down? Can inflation come 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:30.520 down if everyone still has a job. 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:32.839 Well, it depends when I mean, how long is it 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:34.720 going to take. I mean, I'm struck by the fact 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:37.959 that you know the implied inflation rate and tips is 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:40.640 a two percent on a ten year bond, So that's 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:42.800 the implied rate, and the market knows a lot. The 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:45.319 market is telling us a lot. Maybe ten years from 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:48.000 now is too long to care about. But I do 0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:50.440 think in general, one of the things we've talked about 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:53.439 before is the balance between focusing on the cycle and 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:56.480 focusing on the trend, and so we tend I think 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:58.760 you need to focus on back both of them. You 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:02.520 can't ignore psycho but in general, people are more focused 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:05.120 on the cycle, in my opinion, than they should be. 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:07.040 They should be focused a little bit more on the trend, 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:10.559 all of which is positive. And Bernanki talks about the 0:11:10.640 --> 0:11:12.720 idea that there are these secular trends in the world 0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:15.640 that are disinflationary, and technology is certainly one of them. 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:15.920 Yep. 0:11:16.200 --> 0:11:17.239 So you like technology. 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:18.840 We do like technology. 0:11:18.880 --> 0:11:20.680 You don't think it's overvalued here, Well. 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:24.160 It could be overvalued here. But software is changing the world, right, 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:28.000 you know Mark Andriesen's article several years ago software is 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:33.199 eating the world still true. AI is just another accelerating 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:34.120 story on that we. 0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:38.080 Can't go three hours in this show without mentioning ai Oh, 0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:41.840 I have personally thought of so many new business cases 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:47.400 that I might leave and become entrepreneurial multimillionaire because. 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:49.880 I think it could be used in so many different ways. 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:51.839 I mean I'm not alone there, yeah, right, But I 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:55.240 also think just blockchain, I mean, blockchain may revolutionize software 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:58.520 development as well. So software is going to continue to 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:03.000 be change our lives lives, and we fortunately are the 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:03.880 country that leads that. 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:05.160 So we do like that. 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:06.959 We like lots of things, but that's one of the 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:07.599 areas we like. 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:10.040 Hey, what about the banks? You know, I saw a 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:14.559 great quote in a Bloomberg story overnight. An analyst Ben 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:17.360 Gerlinger from the Hubed Group wrote, the shares in Western 0:12:17.360 --> 0:12:21.600 Alliance offer a rare, once in an economic cycle entry 0:12:21.679 --> 0:12:26.079 point into a best of breed banking franchise. I'm not 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:30.400 asking you specifically to common Western Alliance, but if these 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:32.720 banks are safe and it really is just a short 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.640 seller's attack, isn't it a great time to buy them? 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:38.240 Well, there's no question that there are opportunities when you 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:41.840 find dislocation. So for example, in the commercial real estate 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:44.719 challenges which we know are coming, there's going to be 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:46.679 opportunity to make money there. You always sort of ride 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:48.240 to the sound of the guns, you know, wherever the 0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:51.600 dislocation is, you want to look there. Whether that fella 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:53.439 is right or not, only time will tell. And I 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:55.480 think it's a little bit like picking a lottery ticket, 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:57.440 like somebody's going to be right, and at the end, 0:12:57.520 --> 0:13:00.240 whoever was right will be declared a genius when it 0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:00.920 was just random. 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:04.840 John, We want to take advantage of your experience, your 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:09.720 perspective on a really exciting part of the investment marketplace, 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.839 and that's private credit. How do you think guys think 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:15.719 about private credit as an opportunity for investors? 0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:18.120 So we love it. This is one of our big 0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:22.280 emphasies right now. And it's not for amateurs, is the thing, 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:24.719 and it's not easily available, so you've got to be 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:28.439 careful who you're with. But done right, private credit is 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:33.800 a terrific opportunity. We've seen, you know, nominal returns move 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:37.040 from like seven to twelve and we think are outstanding 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:40.240 managers now, Paul. The key thing here, I think, and 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:43.400 this is my opinion, this is one of the things 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.559 that I talk to myself about in our team is 0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:47.800 that this is likely to be a low returning decade, 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:50.640 and so it's almost like small ball in baseball. You 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:52.480 got to you know, get a walk, go to first, 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:54.719 steal second, get a month to move to third. That's 0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:56.480 the kind of environment we're likely to be in for 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.320 the next decade, in my opinion, which is very different 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:01.800 than the decade we just went through. And so I 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:03.800 think people are keep thinking how do we get back 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:06.360 to normal, and they define normal as what was going 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:09.880 on four years ago. That's not normal. This is more 0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:12.880 normal going through a cycle, having a recession, figuring out 0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:15.480 how to grind out the returns they're going to fund 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:16.160 your success. 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:18.760 This is what we heard from Nikolai Tangen, by the way, 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:22.240 the head of the Norgus Bank, yep, you know, at 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:24.000 the beginning of this year, he said the same thing. 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:26.720 I think that it's going to be smaller returns than 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:29.240 we're used to. I think pretty obviously right when you 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:32.400 have the punch bowl taken away, that's what happens. 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:32.560 Well. 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:36.440 And if you go back to Robert Schiller's Nobel Prize 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:40.400 on his work, was you're going in multiple determines your 0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:44.160 next decade's price. It's a very linear relationship, and if 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.920 you have a twenty two multiple going in on average 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:49.200 over time, you get like some four percent return or 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:52.440 some very low return. So we started out this past year, 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:53.840 you know, the year that we just went through with 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:56.480 a big negative. So you start out negative and now 0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:57.920 you have to earn your way back to a ten 0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:01.920 year return. So I think that's the face we're likely. 0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:04.920 We don't know, but probability wise, it's more likely that 0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:08.160 we're going to have that low returning grind out, you know, 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:11.040 singles and doubles kind of a world for the next 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:11.560 ten years. 0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:14.640 Hey, John, thirty seconds back to office. What's your thought? 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:18.920 This is a long discussion, but I love people being 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:20.600 in the office. So one of our four pillars is 0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:23.160 that we embraced the magic of teamwork, and you can't 0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:25.320 have the teamwork, and teamwork's not the same if people 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:27.240 are not back in the office. I think we're going 0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:29.800 to end up with twenty nineteen New and Improved, which 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:33.320 means that people do have more flexibility. But in my opinion, 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:35.440 the default ought to be come to work if you 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:38.000 stay at home if you need to, not default stay 0:15:38.000 --> 0:15:39.600 at home, come to work if you need to, So 0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:43.280 that might not look that different. But and it gives 0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:46.360 people the flexibility that they didn't have before twenty nineteen 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.000 and before this COVID experience. So we've learned a lot 0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.200 and we should learn from that. But in the end, 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:53.480 it's not the same if you're not together. 0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:56.520 Yeah, I think that default way of thinking about it. 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:58.840 It makes a lot of sense, Yes, but that's flipped 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:00.680 from what it is now. Right Yeah, I say right 0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:04.160 now people, I'll come in once a week, you know. Yeah, 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:06.680 but that has to change as heyel Friday is not 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:09.520 one of those days exactly, John the Great having it here. 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:11.520 We need to get you back for a longer discussion 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:12.960 because there's so many issues we didn't touch on. 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:14.520 Yeah's always a pleasure to be with you. 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:18.400 You're listening to the tape Cansur Live program Bloomberg Markets 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:21.840 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.840 in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:27.680 You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:32.120 flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:35.760 All right, I want to get to our next discussion. 0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:37.960 This is gonna be fascinating Michael Sonenfeld joins us. He's 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:40.560 chairman and founder of Tiger twenty one and Tiger twenty 0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:44.000 one is a network of learning groups for high net 0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:47.120 worth investors and this is a fascinating discussion. Michael, thank 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:50.880 you for joining us in our studio here. How does 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:53.880 a person how does a person come to Tiger twenty 0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:56.080 one and why do they come to Tiger twenty one. 0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:58.400 So, you know, we have a lot of great entrepreneurs 0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.040 in this country, but when the best of them sell 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:04.199 their business in an instant, they go from being an 0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:08.000 entrepreneur to a wealth manager and they're not prepared for that. 0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:10.720 They may be a great leader, a great manager, they 0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:15.000 can inspire troops, but what do they know about convertible bonds, equities, 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:18.840 inflation rates? Obviously they knew it through their business. But 0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:22.119 we're the place that they join and meet with others. 0:17:22.200 --> 0:17:24.320 We're a peer to peer learning center and we have 0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:28.080 about twelve hundred and fifty members managing their own money 0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:30.960 a total of about one hundred and fifty billion dollars. 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:36.879 So what are the what are the limits? I mean, 0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:38.960 how much do you have to have to be a 0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:42.520 member and what kind of help can you expect once 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:42.879 you get in. 0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:47.600 So to qualify first as good character, we do a 0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:51.560 lot of background checks. That's really important because there's confidential information. 0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:56.119 But the marketplace we serve is from twenty million to 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:59.920 a billion of personal assets an average of a little 0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:03.560 over one hundred, with most of our members having between 0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:07.720 thirty and sixty million, and what they can expect. The 0:18:07.840 --> 0:18:10.960 most important thing is to meet other people who have 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:14.399 also been vetted, going through the same journey they are. 0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:17.520 It's a peer to peer learning model. We have about 0:18:17.520 --> 0:18:20.800 one hundred staff that serve these twelve hundred and fifty people, 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:24.679 but fundamentally, what they're joining is a network that doesn't 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:25.600 exist anywhere else. 0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:29.440 By the way, the importance of this, I think needs 0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:33.240 to be underlined because you know, if somebody makes a 0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:38.280 hundred million dollars selling her business, we're not feeling sorry 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:41.639 for her, right, but she may have no idea what 0:18:41.760 --> 0:18:43.680 to do with that money, absolutely no idea where to 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:46.199 start other than what her bankers tell her, and they 0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:49.880 of course just want her money. If she loses that money, 0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:52.840 that doesn't do any economic good for the society either. 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:56.840 So it's helpful for all of us if she knows 0:18:56.960 --> 0:18:59.240 how to invest it and does well with it, isn't. 0:18:59.000 --> 0:19:04.280 It for sure? And you know the nature of what 0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:07.960 you know? This isn't just about money. It's about legacy. Family. 0:19:08.480 --> 0:19:10.560 You've had your nose to the grindstone or your head 0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:13.119 to the grindstone for forty years, and all of a sudden, 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:14.720 now you've sold for. 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:15.400