1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. 3 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 2: Every business day, we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 4 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,279 Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 6 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 7 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: Amy Glacier, senior at VP of Business Operations of the 8 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: firm's called a deco, and a deco was really it's 9 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: a staffing company, permanent placement, outsourcing, career transition really tied 10 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 1: into the whole labor market and getting people placed in 11 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:37,560 Speaker 1: this economy. So Amy's got a great perspective, So Amy 12 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: some I mean, I'm not sure anybody really saw these 13 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: numbers coming this morning. 14 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 3: What's the job market look like to you out there? 15 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, so it wasn't much of a surprise. Actually, from 16 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 4: what we're seeing boots on the ground, we're still seeing 17 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 4: leisure and hospitalities super hot. I think, you know, in 18 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 4: the headlines, there have been all these news about layoffs 19 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 4: and recession, and from a broader petion perspective, people are concerned. 20 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 4: But when you really dig in to the trends. There 21 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 4: are still some really hot opportunities out there, and lots 22 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 4: of employers that are still hungry for talent, you know, 23 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 4: especially in restaurants and hotels as they're gearing up for 24 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 4: the busy travel season. 25 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 2: And are they getting paid, are they getting raises? Is 26 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 2: are the you know, salaries and wages keeping up with inflation. 27 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 4: So salaries and wages are not keeping up with inflation, 28 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 4: and that's been a ongoing concern for the past six 29 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 4: months from candidates. So one of the major trends we're 30 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 4: seeing is that, especially for an hourly workforce, employers are 31 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 4: choosing to put more weight on that base rate. So 32 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 4: we're seeing less sign on bonuses, less retention bonuses, less 33 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 4: of those extra monetary perks that tied to total compensation 34 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 4: in favor of purely putting it in the hourly work rate. 35 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 4: What we're also seeing is kind of this entrance into 36 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 4: the part time workforce for a lot of folks that 37 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 4: have been sitting on the sideline. So I was actually 38 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 4: a little bit surprised that the participation rate didn't reflect that, 39 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 4: because that is something we're seeing on the ground that 40 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 4: as wages aren't keeping up with inflation, folks that are 41 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 4: looking for secondary jobs or to return to the workforce, 42 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 4: especially in a part time capacity. 43 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 1: All Right, I just wanted to disclose that all four 44 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: of the Sweeney offspring are gainfully employed in this economy. 45 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 3: So we're contributing. 46 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 1: But I see the Jolts number, Amy, and you know 47 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 1: it was it came down, but it's still almost you know, 48 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 1: nine and a half million people out there are I'm sorry, 49 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 1: you know, kind of open positions. 50 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,639 Speaker 3: Where's everybody? Why isn't every Why aren't more people kind 51 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 3: of in the workforce. 52 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 1: I say, the participation rate of sixty two point six percent, 53 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: I don't know, it seems kind of low to me. 54 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 3: It should be higher. Talk to us about that part 55 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 3: of it. 56 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think you know, we were at two 57 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 4: jobs for every candidate seeking employment. Now we're at one 58 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 4: point six. The reality of the situation is, even if 59 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:00,959 Speaker 4: we get down to a one point one, it doesn't 60 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 4: translate into an exact match of where the job opportunities 61 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 4: are and where the worker resides or what their skill 62 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 4: set is. So we're going to continue to see that 63 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 4: talent scarcity just as a simple matter of where they 64 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 4: physically might live or what their skill set. 65 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 1: Is is a regional change or differences out there these days, 66 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: because it just seems like everybody and their brothers going 67 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 1: to Florida or Texas, and I know, is there some 68 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: regional bias out or differences out there? 69 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 4: We're absolutely seeing the East Coast is white hot right 70 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 4: now in terms of hiring, along with the central part 71 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 4: and southern part of the US. Now, part of that 72 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 4: also translates into the leisure and hospitality time of year. 73 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 4: People and folks are starting to gear up for the 74 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 4: summer travel explosion. Yeah, exactly. Well, the other cool trends 75 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 4: we're seeing right now. I really think, guys, this is 76 00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 4: going to be the summer of out of office seeing 77 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 4: people that have stockpile PTO and haven't been able to 78 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 4: take off over the past two years, especially in some 79 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 4: of those hourly workforce and essential workers really taking the 80 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 4: opportunity this year to take that PTO time and focus 81 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:17,720 Speaker 4: on their personal time off. 82 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 2: Yes, okay, yes, I'm not familiar with the acronyms. 83 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 1: Because you've been in Bloomberg for twenty three years. Yeah, 84 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:24,480 Speaker 1: we had a seed. 85 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 2: Days, we have tea days, yes, okay, So well, I 86 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 2: think Paul is one of those people. He has been 87 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 2: He's been bitterly against working from home until he bought 88 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,840 Speaker 2: a beach house on the shore. And I think this, 89 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 2: so I'm all in, He's going to be working from 90 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 2: home a lot. How is that working out? How is 91 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 2: that changing? I mean, are our people are that you 92 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 2: place still insisting on very flexible workplaces? 93 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,920 Speaker 4: They're absolutely insisting on flexible workplaces. I think what might 94 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 4: be surprising to some is by flexible, they don't all 95 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 4: mean remote work from home one hundred percent of the time. 96 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 4: We've seen that. You know, the American worker really has 97 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 4: a strong appetite for collaboration, being in person coffee chats, 98 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 4: talking with their fellow employees. They just don't want to 99 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 4: do it five days a week. So the employers that 100 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 4: are getting it right and winning right now are opting 101 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 4: more for that hybrid work opportunity where sure you come 102 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 4: into the office to maybe three days a week, that 103 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 4: you have flexibility in picking those days, and both the 104 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 4: employer and the worker are benefiting from that flexible schedule. 105 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 3: How big of a Kentucky Wildcat fan are you, Amy? 106 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:35,039 Speaker 4: I have a third generation Wildcat grad. 107 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:40,039 Speaker 1: Wowret big dog gets here undergrad enter MBA from the 108 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: University of Kentucky. 109 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 3: How good is that? 110 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 1: And it's Kentucky Derby weekend, so I'm sure that's big 111 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 1: for you, So that'd be cool. We'll be watching Amy Glacier, 112 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,720 Speaker 1: Senior VP of Business Operations at a Deco. They're a 113 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: big staffing company out there, and they got their finger 114 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: on the pulse of kind of what's going on in 115 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: terms of hiring and firing out there in the economy. Boy, 116 00:05:56,200 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: it was a blowout jobless our jobs jobs number today, 117 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 1: although again there was a revision a prior month. 118 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 5: But you're listening to the team. Ken's are Live program 119 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 5: Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am eastering on Bloomberg dot Com, 120 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 5: the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen 121 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 5: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 122 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 1: I want to get right to our next guest, Jonathan Hurdle, 123 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,919 Speaker 1: executive chairman of Hurdle, Callahan and Company. I think you 124 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 1: started that thing around nineteen eighty eight. Before that, he 125 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 1: was a little firm called Goldman. Before that, he was 126 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: an officer in the United States Marine Corps for seven years. 127 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: So we thank him for service. But for me, the 128 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: highlight is MBA. 129 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 3: From Penn State. 130 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: Go Nitney Lions, Jonathan, You've got a lot of experience, 131 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 1: You've got a lot of perspective. 132 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 3: Let's start with. 133 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 1: The banking stuff, I mean, the banking stocks. We're not 134 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: sure whether to call this a crisis, turmoil stress. How 135 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: do you kind of view what's happening with some of 136 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 1: our regional banks. 137 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 6: First of all, I like to think about it as 138 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 6: part of the cycle. We had this extended cycle. And 139 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 6: when you look at a bank, they have to make loans, 140 00:06:58,120 --> 00:06:59,600 Speaker 6: and they have to have a how do they make 141 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:01,479 Speaker 6: their decisions? And if you're in the up part of 142 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 6: a cycle, where things are accelerating, you can be more aggressive. 143 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 6: But you don't know how that bank is doing until 144 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 6: you go through the other part of the cycle, the downturn. 145 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 6: And if you can measure their performance trough to trough, 146 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 6: then you see who the better bankers are. So we 147 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 6: had this weirdly extended easy money cycle. You know, we're 148 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 6: at the end of the era of easy money, and 149 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 6: so that unprecedented era of easy money created a lot 150 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 6: of excess, and part of it was this extended economic boom, 151 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 6: which lulled a lot of people into a sense of 152 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 6: laissez faire about their risk policies and so forth. And 153 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 6: then we got an interest rate shock, and it wasn't 154 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 6: an increase. It was a shock when you think of 155 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 6: going just to make the number simple one to three 156 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 6: or you know, two to four or one to four, 157 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 6: so it is a triple and so you get that 158 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 6: kind of we have an economy and a banking system 159 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 6: based on basically free money. And then at the same 160 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 6: time this long cycle which lulled people to sleep. It 161 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 6: doesn't make It doesn't surprise anyone that we have problem 162 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 6: with banks, I think. 163 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 2: So I just wonder if a bank, and I won't 164 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 2: pick a specific one, but if a regional bank does 165 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 2: have enough assets to cover deposits, does it really matter 166 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 2: if the shares are driven down to zero? I mean 167 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 2: beyond obviously the pain the shareholder feels. Does it matter 168 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 2: for the wider banking system. 169 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 6: Well, it only matters if it becomes a vicious cycle. 170 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 6: So the stock price is key because it's sentiment. And 171 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 6: we look at what happened to pack West, and so 172 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 6: you could say, well, this circumstance isn't so bad, but 173 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 6: the run on the stock could make it bad. It's 174 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 6: just from a standpoint of psychology. And then the other 175 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 6: big factor is that we have this only. 176 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 2: The part I don't get though, how does the run 177 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 2: on the stock make it bad? I mean, I get 178 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 2: that the bank could fail, but if we are in 179 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 2: a place where a bank can fail, I think Joe 180 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 2: Wisenheal put it like, if we're at a place where 181 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:00,680 Speaker 2: a bank can fail, like a laundry mat fail, we're okay. 182 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 6: Well, I think what happens is more people get frightened 183 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 6: because they see this news and the stock price is plumbting, 184 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 6: and they call and get their deposits out right. 185 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 2: So that's the concern. But that's not what we've seen happen. 186 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:13,439 Speaker 6: Well, that's why this and that's one of the reasons 187 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 6: the stock is bouncing back, right. 188 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 2: I mean, First Republic, how many billions of dollars of 189 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 2: uninsured deposits we're still there when JP Morgan took it over. 190 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 2: That's how sticky bank deposits are. It is, all right, 191 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 2: by the way, twenty billion is the number. 192 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: Yes, so Jonathan, all right, So we've got the banking 193 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 1: issue out there. 194 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 3: That's a concern. 195 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 1: Most more recently, we had a job's number today that 196 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 1: was a blowout number. We had a revision downward for 197 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 1: the prior month, so that tempers it a little bit. 198 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,599 Speaker 1: But are you where's what's your recession call? Because I 199 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: have a hard time when people come in here and 200 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,319 Speaker 1: talk about recession when I got everybody who wants the 201 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: job's got a job. 202 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 6: Right, And I think the thing is it shouldn't be 203 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 6: a binary discussion. We could have a moderate decession, we 204 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 6: could have no recession, we could have a soft lining, 205 00:09:57,040 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 6: we could have a semi soft line. I mean, I 206 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 6: really think that's where you have to be. It's hard 207 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,559 Speaker 6: to call in a binary way. My personal feeling is 208 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 6: we're likely to have a mild recession. That's just my 209 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:08,839 Speaker 6: personal feeling. And then the answer to that is so 210 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 6: what I mean? So so what I mean? It's just 211 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 6: we're still managing earnings. Earnings are coming better than expected. 212 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:16,319 Speaker 6: We have the best managers in the world working on 213 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:19,599 Speaker 6: these stocks. So I think it's all binary. Is a 214 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 6: hard call, okay. 215 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 2: I mean, if we have unemployment at three point four percent, 216 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 2: is it possible to get inflation down? Can inflation come 217 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 2: down if everyone still has a job. 218 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:32,839 Speaker 6: Well, it depends when I mean, how long is it 219 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 6: going to take. I mean, I'm struck by the fact 220 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,959 Speaker 6: that you know the implied inflation rate and tips is 221 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 6: a two percent on a ten year bond, So that's 222 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 6: the implied rate, and the market knows a lot. The 223 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,319 Speaker 6: market is telling us a lot. Maybe ten years from 224 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 6: now is too long to care about. But I do 225 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 6: think in general, one of the things we've talked about 226 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:53,439 Speaker 6: before is the balance between focusing on the cycle and 227 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 6: focusing on the trend, and so we tend I think 228 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 6: you need to focus on back both of them. You 229 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 6: can't ignore psycho but in general, people are more focused 230 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 6: on the cycle, in my opinion, than they should be. 231 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 6: They should be focused a little bit more on the trend, 232 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,559 Speaker 6: all of which is positive. And Bernanki talks about the 233 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 6: idea that there are these secular trends in the world 234 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 6: that are disinflationary, and technology is certainly one of them. 235 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 5: Yep. 236 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:17,239 Speaker 2: So you like technology. 237 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 6: We do like technology. 238 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 2: You don't think it's overvalued here, Well. 239 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 6: It could be overvalued here. But software is changing the world, right, 240 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 6: you know Mark Andriesen's article several years ago software is 241 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:33,199 Speaker 6: eating the world still true. AI is just another accelerating 242 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 6: story on that we. 243 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 1: Can't go three hours in this show without mentioning ai Oh, 244 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 1: I have personally thought of so many new business cases 245 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 1: that I might leave and become entrepreneurial multimillionaire because. 246 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 2: I think it could be used in so many different ways. 247 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:51,839 Speaker 6: I mean I'm not alone there, yeah, right, But I 248 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 6: also think just blockchain, I mean, blockchain may revolutionize software 249 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 6: development as well. So software is going to continue to 250 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 6: be change our lives lives, and we fortunately are the 251 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 6: country that leads that. 252 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 5: So we do like that. 253 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:06,959 Speaker 6: We like lots of things, but that's one of the 254 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:07,599 Speaker 6: areas we like. 255 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 2: Hey, what about the banks? You know, I saw a 256 00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:14,559 Speaker 2: great quote in a Bloomberg story overnight. An analyst Ben 257 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 2: Gerlinger from the Hubed Group wrote, the shares in Western 258 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 2: Alliance offer a rare, once in an economic cycle entry 259 00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 2: point into a best of breed banking franchise. I'm not 260 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 2: asking you specifically to common Western Alliance, but if these 261 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 2: banks are safe and it really is just a short 262 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,640 Speaker 2: seller's attack, isn't it a great time to buy them? 263 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 6: Well, there's no question that there are opportunities when you 264 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 6: find dislocation. So for example, in the commercial real estate 265 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:44,719 Speaker 6: challenges which we know are coming, there's going to be 266 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:46,679 Speaker 6: opportunity to make money there. You always sort of ride 267 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:48,240 Speaker 6: to the sound of the guns, you know, wherever the 268 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 6: dislocation is, you want to look there. Whether that fella 269 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:53,439 Speaker 6: is right or not, only time will tell. And I 270 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 6: think it's a little bit like picking a lottery ticket, 271 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 6: like somebody's going to be right, and at the end, 272 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 6: whoever was right will be declared a genius when it 273 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 6: was just random. 274 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 1: John, We want to take advantage of your experience, your 275 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 1: perspective on a really exciting part of the investment marketplace, 276 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,839 Speaker 1: and that's private credit. How do you think guys think 277 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:15,719 Speaker 1: about private credit as an opportunity for investors? 278 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 6: So we love it. This is one of our big 279 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 6: emphasies right now. And it's not for amateurs, is the thing, 280 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:24,719 Speaker 6: and it's not easily available, so you've got to be 281 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:28,439 Speaker 6: careful who you're with. But done right, private credit is 282 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 6: a terrific opportunity. We've seen, you know, nominal returns move 283 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 6: from like seven to twelve and we think are outstanding 284 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 6: managers now, Paul. The key thing here, I think, and 285 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 6: this is my opinion, this is one of the things 286 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:45,559 Speaker 6: that I talk to myself about in our team is 287 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 6: that this is likely to be a low returning decade, 288 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 6: and so it's almost like small ball in baseball. You 289 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 6: got to you know, get a walk, go to first, 290 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,719 Speaker 6: steal second, get a month to move to third. That's 291 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 6: the kind of environment we're likely to be in for 292 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,320 Speaker 6: the next decade, in my opinion, which is very different 293 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 6: than the decade we just went through. And so I 294 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 6: think people are keep thinking how do we get back 295 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 6: to normal, and they define normal as what was going 296 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 6: on four years ago. That's not normal. This is more 297 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 6: normal going through a cycle, having a recession, figuring out 298 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 6: how to grind out the returns they're going to fund 299 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 6: your success. 300 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 2: This is what we heard from Nikolai Tangen, by the way, 301 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 2: the head of the Norgus Bank, yep, you know, at 302 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 2: the beginning of this year, he said the same thing. 303 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 2: I think that it's going to be smaller returns than 304 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 2: we're used to. I think pretty obviously right when you 305 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 2: have the punch bowl taken away, that's what happens. 306 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 7: Well. 307 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 6: And if you go back to Robert Schiller's Nobel Prize 308 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 6: on his work, was you're going in multiple determines your 309 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 6: next decade's price. It's a very linear relationship, and if 310 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 6: you have a twenty two multiple going in on average 311 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 6: over time, you get like some four percent return or 312 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 6: some very low return. So we started out this past year, 313 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 6: you know, the year that we just went through with 314 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 6: a big negative. So you start out negative and now 315 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 6: you have to earn your way back to a ten 316 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 6: year return. So I think that's the face we're likely. 317 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 6: We don't know, but probability wise, it's more likely that 318 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 6: we're going to have that low returning grind out, you know, 319 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 6: singles and doubles kind of a world for the next 320 00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 6: ten years. 321 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 3: Hey, John, thirty seconds back to office. What's your thought? 322 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 6: This is a long discussion, but I love people being 323 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 6: in the office. So one of our four pillars is 324 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 6: that we embraced the magic of teamwork, and you can't 325 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 6: have the teamwork, and teamwork's not the same if people 326 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 6: are not back in the office. I think we're going 327 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 6: to end up with twenty nineteen New and Improved, which 328 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 6: means that people do have more flexibility. But in my opinion, 329 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 6: the default ought to be come to work if you 330 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 6: stay at home if you need to, not default stay 331 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 6: at home, come to work if you need to, So 332 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 6: that might not look that different. But and it gives 333 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 6: people the flexibility that they didn't have before twenty nineteen 334 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 6: and before this COVID experience. So we've learned a lot 335 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 6: and we should learn from that. But in the end, 336 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 6: it's not the same if you're not together. 337 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that default way of thinking about it. 338 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 1: It makes a lot of sense, Yes, but that's flipped 339 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 1: from what it is now. Right Yeah, I say right 340 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: now people, I'll come in once a week, you know. Yeah, 341 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 1: but that has to change as heyel Friday is not 342 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 1: one of those days exactly, John the Great having it here. 343 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 2: We need to get you back for a longer discussion 344 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 2: because there's so many issues we didn't touch on. 345 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 3: Yeah's always a pleasure to be with you. 346 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 5: You're listening to the tape Cansur Live program Bloomberg Markets 347 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 5: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune 348 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 5: in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 349 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 5: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 350 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 5: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 351 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 1: All right, I want to get to our next discussion. 352 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: This is gonna be fascinating Michael Sonenfeld joins us. He's 353 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: chairman and founder of Tiger twenty one and Tiger twenty 354 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 1: one is a network of learning groups for high net 355 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 1: worth investors and this is a fascinating discussion. Michael, thank 356 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 1: you for joining us in our studio here. How does 357 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 1: a person how does a person come to Tiger twenty 358 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: one and why do they come to Tiger twenty one. 359 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 8: So, you know, we have a lot of great entrepreneurs 360 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 8: in this country, but when the best of them sell 361 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:04,199 Speaker 8: their business in an instant, they go from being an 362 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 8: entrepreneur to a wealth manager and they're not prepared for that. 363 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 8: They may be a great leader, a great manager, they 364 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 8: can inspire troops, but what do they know about convertible bonds, equities, 365 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 8: inflation rates? Obviously they knew it through their business. But 366 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 8: we're the place that they join and meet with others. 367 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 8: We're a peer to peer learning center and we have 368 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 8: about twelve hundred and fifty members managing their own money 369 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 8: a total of about one hundred and fifty billion dollars. 370 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:36,879 Speaker 2: So what are the what are the limits? I mean, 371 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 2: how much do you have to have to be a 372 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 2: member and what kind of help can you expect once 373 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 2: you get in. 374 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 8: So to qualify first as good character, we do a 375 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:51,560 Speaker 8: lot of background checks. That's really important because there's confidential information. 376 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 8: But the marketplace we serve is from twenty million to 377 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 8: a billion of personal assets an average of a little 378 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 8: over one hundred, with most of our members having between 379 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:07,720 Speaker 8: thirty and sixty million, and what they can expect. The 380 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 8: most important thing is to meet other people who have 381 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 8: also been vetted, going through the same journey they are. 382 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 8: It's a peer to peer learning model. We have about 383 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 8: one hundred staff that serve these twelve hundred and fifty people, 384 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:24,679 Speaker 8: but fundamentally, what they're joining is a network that doesn't 385 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 8: exist anywhere else. 386 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 2: By the way, the importance of this, I think needs 387 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 2: to be underlined because you know, if somebody makes a 388 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 2: hundred million dollars selling her business, we're not feeling sorry 389 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 2: for her, right, but she may have no idea what 390 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:43,680 Speaker 2: to do with that money, absolutely no idea where to 391 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:46,199 Speaker 2: start other than what her bankers tell her, and they 392 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,880 Speaker 2: of course just want her money. If she loses that money, 393 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 2: that doesn't do any economic good for the society either. 394 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 2: So it's helpful for all of us if she knows 395 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 2: how to invest it and does well with it, isn't. 396 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 8: It for sure? And you know the nature of what 397 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 8: you know? This isn't just about money. It's about legacy. Family. 398 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 8: You've had your nose to the grindstone or your head 399 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 8: to the grindstone for forty years, and all of a sudden, 400 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 8: now you've sold for. 401 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 3: The first time. 402 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,000 Speaker 8: You're looking at the broader issues. And this is the 403 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:19,760 Speaker 8: community that you can explore them with. 404 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 3: So what are I sell my company? For example? 405 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:24,200 Speaker 1: And I like the way you described it before we 406 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:28,199 Speaker 1: went on the air. Oftentimes that sell now feels a drift, right, 407 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: So when they come to you, what do you find 408 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 1: they most need, because presumably they're getting some financial advice from, 409 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 1: you know, somewhere. 410 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:39,160 Speaker 2: Investmentalers that help them sell the company. 411 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,360 Speaker 3: First, all the wealth management business. 412 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 8: Our members use a lot of the great managers, but 413 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 8: sometimes you find they're selling instead of serving and learning 414 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:51,400 Speaker 8: how to figure out the wheat from the chaff. Who 415 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 8: are the good managers? How do you look at managers? 416 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 8: That's an important thing. What you're really getting is a perspective. 417 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,160 Speaker 8: How do you become an investor? Just as an example, 418 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,399 Speaker 8: I'll ask you guys a question, how long do you 419 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:07,840 Speaker 8: think it takes for an incredibly bright, incredibly successful entrepreneur 420 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 8: to become a mildly competent investor. 421 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:12,119 Speaker 2: I would imagine years. 422 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 8: Yeah, five years, that's sort of the average. When you 423 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 8: sell your business, you have no idea what you don't know, 424 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 8: and unless somebody tells you to go slow, don't invest 425 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 8: everything right away, wait till you learn a new trade. 426 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 8: You can make some real bloopers, and we want to 427 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 8: try and help members avoid that. 428 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,159 Speaker 2: How do you convince members to trust you? I mean, 429 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 2: is it your track record? 430 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 4: You know? 431 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 2: Obviously people want to get into this network, but there 432 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 2: must be some people who think everyone's trying to take 433 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 2: what I got, So I need to be protective of this. 434 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 8: So I'd like to think just we don't just talk 435 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 8: the talk, we walk the walk. I started this twenty 436 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 8: five years ago. It is a business, but it was 437 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 8: a labor of love, and I think we've put members 438 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 8: first in every decision that we've done. And if you 439 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 8: come and look under the hood, I think we can 440 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 8: pretty much defend that. And that's how we've grown to 441 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 8: seven countries, twelve hundred and fifty members, and almost one 442 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,120 Speaker 8: hundred and fifty billion in assets. 443 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 1: So what are your members talking about and discussing over. 444 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: I mean, we've just come out of this pandemic and 445 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,400 Speaker 1: who knows how it impacted their businesses and their wealth, 446 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 1: and now we're in, you know, kind of a post 447 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 1: pandemic world. 448 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:26,919 Speaker 3: What are some of the items they are discussing? 449 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 4: Right? 450 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 8: So two realms. One is family, legacy, children, multi generational issues. 451 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 8: But in the economic sphere, it's how do you create 452 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 8: an all weather portfolio. I'm not here as a trader. 453 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 8: I've created wealth once and I want to preserve it. 454 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,880 Speaker 8: And that's why our asset allocation is so important. Don't 455 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 8: we just measure what our members do. We don't dictate it. 456 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 8: They all manage their own funds. But today, as an example, 457 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 8: private equity is thirty one percent, public equity is twenty 458 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 8: two percent, and real estate twenty four percent. That's seventy 459 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,959 Speaker 8: eight percent long. But when you have that much long exposure, 460 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,439 Speaker 8: you better have a lot of cash to weather the storm. 461 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 8: So eleven percent cash, which is a particularly high number. 462 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 8: So finding out how to get the benefit of a 463 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,399 Speaker 8: day like today. What a day we're having, right, But 464 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 8: you didn't know that yesterday what it was going to 465 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:21,199 Speaker 8: look like if it turned the other way. The eleven 466 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 8: percent cash creates a kind of buffer, and just dealing 467 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 8: in those concepts is not what you were doing as 468 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:28,679 Speaker 8: an entrepreneur, No, not at all. 469 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 3: You were selling more widgets. 470 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:33,120 Speaker 2: Yes, I was thinking when you said you're seventy eight 471 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 2: percent long, do you teach them how to hedge? And 472 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 2: then my thoughts fall back. We have geniuses come in 473 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 2: the studio all the time. Neil Roseman, for example, I 474 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:43,680 Speaker 2: will say like, oh, I just sell puts on this 475 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,879 Speaker 2: and that, and I have no idea what he's talking about, 476 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 2: you know, And I imagine a lot of entrepreneurs are 477 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:48,640 Speaker 2: the same way. 478 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 5: Yeah. 479 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 8: So look, some of our members are some of the 480 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 8: world's great traders came out of that. But most of 481 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 8: our members built a business. They started with a concept 482 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 8: and they took it to fruition. Even hedging is a 483 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 8: little complicated. They may be investing in funds that have 484 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 8: hedging strategies, but having the basic portfolio work for the 485 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 8: long term, that's the objective. 486 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 2: Can you start a family office with Tiger? I mean, 487 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:15,640 Speaker 2: how does this work? 488 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 8: So we do have a group of members who have 489 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:23,919 Speaker 8: family offices. Family offices typically begin at about two hundred 490 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 8: million and above. You can't economically underwrite a family office 491 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:32,160 Speaker 8: at a smaller amount. And then obviously once you get 492 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,400 Speaker 8: into the billions of dollars, you have huge family offices. 493 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 8: That's not our market. We're from twenty million of investable 494 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,119 Speaker 8: assets to a billion. 495 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 3: Wow. 496 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,119 Speaker 1: Just fascinating discussion. Million ways we could go on this. 497 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:44,959 Speaker 1: So we're gonna get you back in here because now 498 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:46,920 Speaker 1: that I understand that you are in New York, there's 499 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 1: no excuse. So we're going to get you to STUDI 500 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 1: a little bit more often because we can go a 501 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:51,719 Speaker 1: million different ways. I love to just know what your 502 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 1: members are doing in markets from time to time. That'd 503 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 1: be a good gauge of how these markets are performing. 504 00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 1: Michael Sonenfeld, he's the chairman and he is the founder 505 00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:00,959 Speaker 1: of Tiger twenty one. 506 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 3: Again. 507 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 1: Tiger twenty one is a network of learning groups. That's 508 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: a good way to describe it. A network of learning 509 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 1: groups for high net worth investors. And love talking to 510 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,439 Speaker 1: Michael because he has a very unique perspective into these 511 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: markets based upon what he learns from his group. 512 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 3: There, so good discussion. 513 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,160 Speaker 5: You're listening to the team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg 514 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,480 Speaker 5: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 515 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 5: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen 516 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 5: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 517 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 9: Curiously comes on you in the heels of a spate 518 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 9: of deaths at the track at Churchill Downs. Clearly the 519 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:45,679 Speaker 9: track and the company are on edge. It's a it's 520 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,119 Speaker 9: a major problem, and it's a major pr problem. And 521 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,879 Speaker 9: I think they are trying to really exercise caution here 522 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,520 Speaker 9: and any horse that there may be any questions about 523 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:55,880 Speaker 9: of any kind. They are telling trainers get that horse 524 00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:56,480 Speaker 9: out of the race. 525 00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:00,040 Speaker 2: So what you say, deaths And immediately I'm concerned a 526 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,560 Speaker 2: would be peda person, you know, except for I don't 527 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:05,919 Speaker 2: have I don't know the inner strength. 528 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:07,400 Speaker 3: We have a very nice leather jacket. 529 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 2: You it don't look like a fact. This is horse leather. 530 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 2: This jacket and these boots. Horse not go there. But 531 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 2: is this a problem? Do these horses die because I 532 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,680 Speaker 2: imagine they're doped up? Or are they pushed too hard? 533 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:22,879 Speaker 2: Do they hit them badly with that stick? 534 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 9: Like what's the you know, the stick or the riding crop. 535 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,159 Speaker 9: I would say, is one of the things that actually 536 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 9: is off in the whole conversation, but listen that part 537 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,400 Speaker 9: of it. Actually, they have taken concrete measures to crack 538 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,120 Speaker 9: down on use of the riding crop, and it's used 539 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 9: a lot less now than it was two, five, ten 540 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 9: years ago. You can't shockeys can't use it the way 541 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,240 Speaker 9: they used to. I mean Victor Espinosa famously in the 542 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 9: derby hit American Pharaoh who go on to win the 543 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 9: Triple Crown. I counted him. I wrote a piece on it. 544 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 9: He hit American Pharaoh thirty times in the stretch. That is, 545 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 9: if nothing else unsightly. The issue, yes, that they have 546 00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 9: when you get debts on the track, it can often 547 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,639 Speaker 9: be problems with the race surface. And that's one of 548 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,680 Speaker 9: the big concerns they suddenly have at Church Redowns. It 549 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 9: is a dirt primarily a dirt surface, and it is 550 00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 9: subject to. 551 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,119 Speaker 6: Rain and cold freezes. 552 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:13,639 Speaker 9: And then you know, temperatures right around this time of 553 00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 9: year go up and down, and the and the and 554 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 9: the surface the consistency of that surface can change, and 555 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 9: you can it can lead to injuries and at times deaths. 556 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:24,919 Speaker 9: And wild on Ice, who was one of the horses 557 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,879 Speaker 9: that was gonna run in the Derby was pulled up, 558 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 9: brought to the vet and and died. They had to 559 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,720 Speaker 9: put that horse down. So, but is it a concern 560 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,679 Speaker 9: is it in steroids issue? Steroids are no longer an 561 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:39,439 Speaker 9: issue they used to be. I don't know if anybody 562 00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,879 Speaker 9: who remembers Big Brown, who was a horse that almost 563 00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:44,880 Speaker 9: won the Triple Crown back in two thousand and eight, 564 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,399 Speaker 9: and he was a famous horse that they had, you know, 565 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,119 Speaker 9: on a lot of steroids that drew a lot of 566 00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 9: attention to that particular issue. Steroids have since been banned 567 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,359 Speaker 9: from the game, but there's no doubt that the game 568 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,520 Speaker 9: still has an issue of cracking down on cheaters. Listen, 569 00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:04,480 Speaker 9: there are multiple people, top trainers and again who are 570 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,800 Speaker 9: currently in jail who were busted by the FEDS for cheating. 571 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 9: Bob Bafford is not in jail, but he's the biggest 572 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 9: name in racing. He is still suspended from Churchill Downs 573 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:20,160 Speaker 9: and he suspended for his four having given illegal medications 574 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,359 Speaker 9: to his horses. He might recall two years ago he 575 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 9: won his seventh record breaking seventh Kentucky Derby. That horse 576 00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:30,359 Speaker 9: Medina Spirit, was found to have illegal substances in his blood. 577 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 9: He was subsequently disqualified and Bafford was suspended and is 578 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 9: still on the outside looking in Churchill after this spate 579 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 9: of deaths. 580 00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:39,640 Speaker 3: Two of the deaths. 581 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 9: Horses that didn't sustain injuries in the track but literally 582 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:47,200 Speaker 9: drop dead. Okay, we're trained by Saffie Joseph, a young 583 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,400 Speaker 9: up and coming trainer. Saffie had a horse to run 584 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,880 Speaker 9: in the Derby. Churchill Downs told him, scratch that horse 585 00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,879 Speaker 9: from the race, scratch all your horses schedule to run 586 00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,200 Speaker 9: at Churchill this weekend and take all your horses at here. 587 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:01,639 Speaker 9: You're kicked out of Churchill Downs. 588 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 1: Churchill Downs is a publicly traded company market cap of 589 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,159 Speaker 1: ten point nine billion dollars as symbole c h d N. 590 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 1: It's up thirty eight percent year to date a forty 591 00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 1: five percent on a trailing twelve month basis, so a 592 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 1: good investment there for public shareholders. David talk to us 593 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,240 Speaker 1: about this year's race and the horses who are some 594 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:19,879 Speaker 1: of the favorites, who are some of them maybe the 595 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:21,240 Speaker 1: long shots to keep an eye on, because we had 596 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 1: a long shot win last year. 597 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 9: We did have a long shot win last year, Rich Strike, 598 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 9: and actually Rich Strike is running today in about an hour. 599 00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 9: If you want to go back. Okay, I will say this, 600 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,119 Speaker 9: after winning at eighty to one on Derby Day last year, 601 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 9: how many races has Rich strike one sins then zero? 602 00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 9: The number is one zero times. Now I think that 603 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 9: race is a bit of a fluke. It was a 604 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,479 Speaker 9: sub it was it was circumstances that helped get him 605 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,720 Speaker 9: in the winter circle. But what will absolutely happen this 606 00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 9: year is after an eighty to one shot wins one year, 607 00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 9: everybody goes out and bets the long shots. The next 608 00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 9: year that's just gonna happen. So all these crazy long 609 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 9: shots that you'd be seventy eighty ninety to one, we'll 610 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,320 Speaker 9: get bet down to twenty to one. And that doesn't 611 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 9: make a whole lot of sense, to be honest, but 612 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 9: it is something that's absolutely gonna happen. 613 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:11,120 Speaker 2: By the way, this I don't want to get too 614 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 2: deep into this if it's complicated. I know nothing about betting. 615 00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:18,320 Speaker 2: Can you short a horse? Can you sell puts? I mean, 616 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 2: can you get into that sort of derivative stuff? Or 617 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:22,920 Speaker 2: is it just bet on the ones you think are 618 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:23,320 Speaker 2: gonna win. 619 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 9: So it's a lot easier in place like the UK 620 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,560 Speaker 9: you can flat out short a horse and I love 621 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 9: that right so here because it's just very simple. I 622 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,960 Speaker 9: want to bet against that horse. I essentially, if Paul 623 00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,720 Speaker 9: Sweeney wants to bet on the favorite Forte in the Derby, 624 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,040 Speaker 9: I can say, hey, I'll take that action from Paul. 625 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 9: All right, you bet that bet with me. I'll give 626 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,360 Speaker 9: it a forourte wins, I pay you. If he loses, 627 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 9: you pay me. In the United States of America, you cannot, 628 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 9: at least not at the major racetracks and the major 629 00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 9: betting venues. So what you're typically left to do if 630 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,800 Speaker 9: there's a big favorite that you're negative on to bet against, 631 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 9: find a bookie or you just what we say, you 632 00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 9: fade that horse. You find you have to find the 633 00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,360 Speaker 9: most likely up setters to try to beat him. 634 00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,960 Speaker 3: But it's much much easier in the UK to. 635 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,400 Speaker 2: So Fortes favored to win. Tell us about the favorites. 636 00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,480 Speaker 9: So the favorite so Forte was two year old champion 637 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:13,320 Speaker 9: last year. He looked dynamite in his return as a 638 00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:14,920 Speaker 9: three year old. All the horses in the Derby are 639 00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:18,960 Speaker 9: three years old, right, He looked dynamite returning in February 640 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 9: at the races in Gulfstream, looked less great. Last in 641 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 9: his last race. He won that too. The issue with Forte, 642 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,120 Speaker 9: and this is one of the really things that's unique 643 00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,280 Speaker 9: about the Derby, is at the Derby there will be 644 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:35,680 Speaker 9: one hundred and fifty thousand screaming, drunk human beings. Horses 645 00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 9: are flight animals, they're skittish animals, and surrounded by one 646 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:41,760 Speaker 9: hundred and fifty thousand drunk people, they can get on 647 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 9: edge and they can lose their minds and run their 648 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,960 Speaker 9: race before the race even begins. Forte has a bad habit. 649 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 9: Everyone should watch him in the pre race warm ups 650 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:52,800 Speaker 9: and in the post brid He has a bad habit 651 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 9: of getting worked up and riled up and anxious and 652 00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,920 Speaker 9: sweaty's if that's happening to him in front of crowds 653 00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 9: of ten and twenty thousand people, you can only imagine 654 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:02,800 Speaker 9: what it's going to look like in front of one 655 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:04,920 Speaker 9: hundred and fifty thousand people. That's one of my concerns 656 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 9: about him. I am indeed negative. I'm fading Forte. 657 00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 3: All right, So other horses, who are you betting? 658 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:12,240 Speaker 2: Who are you betting on to. 659 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:16,960 Speaker 9: Win the winner of? Like voting the winner of the 660 00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 9: one hundred and forty ninth Kentucky Derby is named Angel 661 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,600 Speaker 9: of Empire. He'll be somewhere around eight to one ish. 662 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,080 Speaker 9: I just like everything about the way he's coming into 663 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,240 Speaker 9: the race, right. I'm someone who puts a lot of 664 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 9: stock in the way horses are training in the morning. 665 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 9: He right now everyone is just you know Gaga or 666 00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 9: the way he looks in the track in the morning. 667 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 9: He's He's a horse that was a sort of a 668 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,640 Speaker 9: more of a late developer, but he's the now. To me, 669 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:43,400 Speaker 9: he's the now horse, and I think. 670 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 3: There's a lot of value. 671 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 9: So Forte has had a much more impressive career. But 672 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 9: you know, Forte very precocious at two, but seems to 673 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 9: be tailing off. A horse like Angel of Empire, I 674 00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 9: think is a great candid. I also like, you know 675 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,640 Speaker 9: a horse that almost beat Forte and the last race 676 00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,080 Speaker 9: of horse named Mage John Tucker. I see he's paying 677 00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:02,320 Speaker 9: attention right that downshot age got it? 678 00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 2: Where can you go to place these bets? 679 00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 9: Ot storing I obvious online there's all you know from 680 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,160 Speaker 9: gambling apps. I mean, the New York Racing Association's got 681 00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:15,200 Speaker 9: one that's very popular, and IRA Bets Churchill Downs has 682 00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,920 Speaker 9: one that's very popular called you know Twin Spires dot Com. 683 00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 2: I mean everyone's I need a long shot. 684 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,120 Speaker 3: That's how I play. You want to long shot on 685 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 3: a long shot. 686 00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 2: But they're not going to pay off as much as 687 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,480 Speaker 2: the long shots typically do. David just told us everybody's 688 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:27,920 Speaker 2: betting a long shot that drives the odds down. 689 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 3: That is absolutely you bet your book. I'll bet my 690 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:31,040 Speaker 3: book shot. 691 00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,800 Speaker 9: The only thing I'll say, and thatcher right, Matt's paying attention. 692 00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:35,480 Speaker 9: Here's the only thing I'll say about the Derby is 693 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 9: the Derby gets you chaotic results because not only is 694 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 9: the crowd massive, it's a huge field. And so even 695 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,400 Speaker 9: though we're down to just nineteen horses after the scratches, 696 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 9: nineteen horses is more than double the typical size of 697 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,920 Speaker 9: a field in a race. So chaos reins. Last thing 698 00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,720 Speaker 9: that creates chaotic results and why sometimes long shots are 699 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,720 Speaker 9: a good bet is no horse has ever run this 700 00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:00,360 Speaker 9: distance before this long a mile and a quarter, and 701 00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,040 Speaker 9: most of them will never run this distance again. AM 702 00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,360 Speaker 9: mile and a quarter is a rare distance. Nowadays they 703 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,680 Speaker 9: tend to could be a mile and so you can 704 00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:09,560 Speaker 9: get chaotic results. So, Paul Sweeney, if you want to 705 00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:12,120 Speaker 9: dial up a long shut or two knock yourself, nice 706 00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 9: good stuff. 707 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:14,760 Speaker 2: Why don't we have a whole show with David Pye 708 00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:16,000 Speaker 2: knows I know he's coming back. 709 00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:16,920 Speaker 3: We're gonna, don't worry. 710 00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,160 Speaker 2: At least a weekly show we should have with you exactly. 711 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 1: They have a Populattopoulos, executive editor for Bloomberg News, and 712 00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:23,560 Speaker 1: he is our. 713 00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 3: Resident horse guy. You gotta have a horse guy, and 714 00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:26,320 Speaker 3: we got one. 715 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,720 Speaker 5: You're listening to the tape Can's are live program Bloomberg 716 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:33,360 Speaker 5: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 717 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 5: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 718 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,520 Speaker 5: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 719 00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:43,960 Speaker 5: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 720 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,920 Speaker 2: It looks like there's a group of shall I say, 721 00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:54,200 Speaker 2: dissidents or activist shareholders yep, that are attempting what I 722 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,680 Speaker 2: imagine is a very long shot bid to remove Warren 723 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:02,160 Speaker 2: Buffett yeah from the air, from the position his position 724 00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:06,280 Speaker 2: as chairman at Berkshire Hathaway at the annual shareholder meeting 725 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,800 Speaker 2: this Saturday. The reason, apparently, is because of his ties 726 00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:13,719 Speaker 2: to Bill Gates. The two are famously close and Bill 727 00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 2: Gates charity charitable foundation, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. 728 00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:19,840 Speaker 2: I don't know why, but. 729 00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,160 Speaker 3: We've got somebody who does know what exactly. 730 00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,280 Speaker 2: We've got the author of the article, the reporter joining 731 00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,520 Speaker 2: us right now, Bill Allison, comes to us from Washington, 732 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:28,759 Speaker 2: d C. 733 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:30,920 Speaker 3: Bill, what do we know about? 734 00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:33,719 Speaker 2: First of all, how how much of a long shot 735 00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:37,880 Speaker 2: is this? I mean, doesn't Warren Buffett have incredible uh, 736 00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:42,360 Speaker 2: speaking of brand loyalty, just unbelievable loyalty among Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. 737 00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:46,680 Speaker 10: Yeah, he definitely does. And you know he owns, you know, 738 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,200 Speaker 10: almost a third of the stock. So that's going to 739 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:53,040 Speaker 10: be votes again, and it's you know, it's very unlikely. 740 00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:56,080 Speaker 10: A similar proposal was introduced at the last year's meeting, 741 00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:59,600 Speaker 10: but it did get some support. It got almost eleven 742 00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:04,520 Speaker 10: percent support, and that's largely because CalPERS, the California Pension 743 00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:09,439 Speaker 10: employee retirement system, voted for the resolution and they said 744 00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,520 Speaker 10: that they long support you know, corporate governance where you 745 00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:16,720 Speaker 10: have an independent board share rather than having the CEO 746 00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:17,640 Speaker 10: play both roles. 747 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,120 Speaker 3: So is this a political thing? 748 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,080 Speaker 1: What do we know about the reasoning behind this that 749 00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:27,520 Speaker 1: perhaps some investors don't appreciate the politics of Gates and 750 00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,000 Speaker 1: maybe some other folks that mister Buffett may align himself with. 751 00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,040 Speaker 10: Yeah, I think that this is this is sort of 752 00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:37,040 Speaker 10: the question that these these folks are raising, is that 753 00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:40,640 Speaker 10: you know, Warren Buffett has last year's meeting, he said 754 00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,880 Speaker 10: that basically, you know, if you take political positions, you 755 00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:47,719 Speaker 10: end up angering more people than you please. And it's 756 00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,560 Speaker 10: you know, he would never do that to hurt Berkshire 757 00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,120 Speaker 10: half the way shareholders. And then these guys are looking, well, 758 00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,080 Speaker 10: you serve on the board of an organization that, you know, 759 00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,359 Speaker 10: maybe not political in the sense of Democrats and Republicans, 760 00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:01,920 Speaker 10: but political in the sense of they take a lot 761 00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,480 Speaker 10: of positions on social issues that are you know, frankly, 762 00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,279 Speaker 10: really contentious. And it's you know, whether it's you know, 763 00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:13,400 Speaker 10: abortion or transgender issues or uh, you know, how how 764 00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,920 Speaker 10: we teach students in schools. You know, a lot of 765 00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,319 Speaker 10: these things have become hot button issues. And what they're 766 00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:20,680 Speaker 10: asking is, you know, are pointing to, is you know, 767 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,360 Speaker 10: you have this close association with this you know, foundation 768 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,520 Speaker 10: that has you know, all kinds of different programs that 769 00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,440 Speaker 10: some of which could be controversial or view as controversial 770 00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:31,600 Speaker 10: isn't that doing what you said you wouldn't do? 771 00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:36,759 Speaker 2: All right? So you know, I was struck by your 772 00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,800 Speaker 2: story in that it says Warren Buffett's ties to Bill Gates, 773 00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:44,920 Speaker 2: whose charitable work has triggered criticism, are putting investors in 774 00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,920 Speaker 2: Berkshire Hathaway at risk. I would have thought his ties 775 00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:52,360 Speaker 2: to Bill Gates are a problem because of Bill gates 776 00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:56,120 Speaker 2: association with Jeffrey Epstein more and more of which we're 777 00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:56,680 Speaker 2: learning about. 778 00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,920 Speaker 10: Well, that's something that you know that the shareholders. It's 779 00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:04,160 Speaker 10: group called the National Law, Legal and Policy Center, and 780 00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:05,960 Speaker 10: that's one of the issues that they're raising is that, 781 00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:09,279 Speaker 10: you know, there's this reputational risk that you know that 782 00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:13,239 Speaker 10: Bill Gates has kind of become you know, his his 783 00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,520 Speaker 10: reputation has taken a hit. You know, it's not just 784 00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:20,360 Speaker 10: you know, Jeffrey Epstein. There's the question of you know, 785 00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,799 Speaker 10: his you know, the divorce and everything else, and it's 786 00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:26,919 Speaker 10: it's kind of that, you know, he's become much more 787 00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:30,680 Speaker 10: of a you know, much less of somebody who you know, 788 00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,000 Speaker 10: people thought was you know, always had his heart in 789 00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:35,960 Speaker 10: the right place. To raising some questions about some of 790 00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:37,919 Speaker 10: the things that he's done. In fairness, to Bill Gates. 791 00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,080 Speaker 10: He said that it was a mistake to know Jeffrey Epstein, 792 00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:43,560 Speaker 10: that he regrets it, but still this is just you know, 793 00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:46,959 Speaker 10: you know, Jeffrey Epstein just keeps popping up in the news. 794 00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:48,920 Speaker 10: You know, there's just a couple of series of articles 795 00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:51,800 Speaker 10: looking at his appointment calendar and lo and behold. You 796 00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:53,879 Speaker 10: know whose name is mentioned in it? But Bill Gates, 797 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:55,400 Speaker 10: you're listening to the tape. 798 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,640 Speaker 5: Can's are live program Bloomberg Markets week days at ten 799 00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:02,160 Speaker 5: am Eastern on Blomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg 800 00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:04,759 Speaker 5: dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also 801 00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:08,359 Speaker 5: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 802 00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,759 Speaker 5: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 803 00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,759 Speaker 1: Brian, You're in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. I love 804 00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:20,280 Speaker 1: the casino business. Most of the casino operators have reported numbers. 805 00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,160 Speaker 1: Just generally speaking, are people rolling the bones here these days? 806 00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:27,080 Speaker 7: It appears they are. I mean, gaming has been generally speaking, 807 00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,480 Speaker 7: really quite strong. You know, there are some puts and takes, 808 00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:34,920 Speaker 7: but domestically Vegas is looking quite strong. Probably the biggest 809 00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:39,480 Speaker 7: inflection point is the group convention, Business and Business travel appears. 810 00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:39,839 Speaker 6: To be coming back. 811 00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:44,040 Speaker 7: But you know, the overall tone of gaming lodging earning 812 00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:46,799 Speaker 7: season thus far has been quite positive. Maybe a little 813 00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,880 Speaker 7: bit of tentativeness and certaintly about the second half, but 814 00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,840 Speaker 7: overall quite positive. And you know, also just directing this 815 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:57,440 Speaker 7: to what happening internationally, McCaw was also doing quite a 816 00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,399 Speaker 7: bit better now that the travel restrictions in that part 817 00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:00,759 Speaker 7: of the world. 818 00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:04,000 Speaker 1: So that's off the coast of China, that's the the 819 00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:06,800 Speaker 1: big that is the Las Vegas strip of Asia, and 820 00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:10,200 Speaker 1: that depends almost entirely on mainland China. And now that 821 00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:13,560 Speaker 1: China's reopened, definitely okay. 822 00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,240 Speaker 7: I mean, the whole high end business has been choked 823 00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,880 Speaker 7: off a little bit because there's some restrictions on junkets 824 00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,960 Speaker 7: can't want money, you know, junk get credit. But overall, 825 00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:25,640 Speaker 7: you know that business is definitely coming back because of 826 00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,560 Speaker 7: the winding down of the zero COVID regime. That's what's 827 00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:29,680 Speaker 7: really helping that part. 828 00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:29,879 Speaker 6: Of the world. 829 00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:33,960 Speaker 1: So when I think Vegas, how I got into Vegas 830 00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:35,560 Speaker 1: was just a convention route. I mean, you go to 831 00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:37,759 Speaker 1: the Vegas for all these conventions and that's kind of 832 00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,120 Speaker 1: exposed to you to Vegas and then you're kind of 833 00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,279 Speaker 1: for people like me, kind of hooked and really two 834 00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,280 Speaker 1: to three nights is the max for me. Let's be honest. 835 00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:47,640 Speaker 1: So talk to us about that convention business, because we 836 00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,200 Speaker 1: just had a story earlier that says March was a 837 00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:53,360 Speaker 1: like almost pre pandemic levels and it was due in 838 00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:57,080 Speaker 1: part two Taylor Swift and the PAC twelve championship and 839 00:39:57,080 --> 00:39:59,120 Speaker 1: thinking things like that. So how's the convention business, So, 840 00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,960 Speaker 1: I mean, convention busines, this overall, it's really coming back 841 00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,839 Speaker 1: at its peak pre pandemic. It was maybe twenty one 842 00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,319 Speaker 1: percent of total room nights and now we're pretty much 843 00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:11,360 Speaker 1: back there and moving that direction. You know, overall Vegas 844 00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:16,000 Speaker 1: first quarter gaming revenues was twenty eight percent higher than 845 00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:19,319 Speaker 1: the first quarter of nineteen, so we're now we're now 846 00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,480 Speaker 1: above pre pandemic levels in terms of revenue. 847 00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,720 Speaker 2: Is it the best place? Is it the biggest place 848 00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:27,640 Speaker 2: in the country for conventions? I mean, Paul seems to 849 00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:29,560 Speaker 2: want to go there every other week for a convention, 850 00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:31,680 Speaker 2: but that's just because you want to wants to hit 851 00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:32,040 Speaker 2: the table. 852 00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:33,160 Speaker 6: Yeah. 853 00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,440 Speaker 7: What makes what makes Vegas really different is if you're 854 00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:39,120 Speaker 7: in a regional casino in another part of the country. 855 00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,759 Speaker 7: Gaming is maybe eighty five percent of the total. When 856 00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:43,759 Speaker 7: you're out in Vegas, it's pretty close to fifty to 857 00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,600 Speaker 7: fifty sixty forty in favor of the non gaming component. 858 00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:48,960 Speaker 7: So the big change over the last few decades has 859 00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:54,839 Speaker 7: been the conventions, restaurants, entertainment, meetings, all those all those 860 00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:55,800 Speaker 7: businesses now. 861 00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:56,960 Speaker 2: And I would think it's a big part. 862 00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:58,560 Speaker 1: And I would think, you know, with the work from home, 863 00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:00,839 Speaker 1: what I'm hearing from a lot of companies is we're 864 00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,040 Speaker 1: being flexible, we're working from home, but we're trying to 865 00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:04,600 Speaker 1: get together as a group more often. 866 00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:07,279 Speaker 3: I'm like, Vegas, you know, I mean, are they is that? 867 00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:09,799 Speaker 1: Are they when they're when they're booking some of these groups, 868 00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:11,319 Speaker 1: Are they seeing some of that as something new? 869 00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:11,600 Speaker 5: Maybe? 870 00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:14,279 Speaker 7: I think so. I mean, Vegas this has you know, 871 00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,840 Speaker 7: it's not just about Vegas being the fun destination. It is, 872 00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:19,960 Speaker 7: but it has the infrastructure right. It's got the airport, 873 00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:23,960 Speaker 7: it's got the hotel rooms, it's got the amenity package, 874 00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:25,520 Speaker 7: it's got the convention facilities. 875 00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:27,160 Speaker 2: It's also got all the high end dining. 876 00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:29,440 Speaker 7: Has everything you need to make. 877 00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:30,200 Speaker 6: It right at the destination. 878 00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:32,799 Speaker 1: My man, all right, let's we got you. You cover 879 00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:35,760 Speaker 1: all the fun stuff, including the cruise lines. Royal Caribbean 880 00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:39,120 Speaker 1: had some pretty decent results here. I guess people are 881 00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,520 Speaker 1: are they cruising, are they worried about inflation, are they 882 00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:44,600 Speaker 1: worried about a recession? Or are they just kind of saying, heck, 883 00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:45,239 Speaker 1: booked me up. 884 00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:47,480 Speaker 7: So you know, first of all, the ships are all 885 00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:49,759 Speaker 7: back in service now, we're pretty much at our near 886 00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:54,120 Speaker 7: complete redeployment after those ships were paused. And you know, 887 00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:56,600 Speaker 7: just the numbers that just came out recently from Royal 888 00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,480 Speaker 7: Caribbean where the strength they're seeing, and it's it's really 889 00:41:59,560 --> 00:41:59,960 Speaker 7: quite strong. 890 00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:01,120 Speaker 5: Wrong is. 891 00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:05,080 Speaker 7: You know, it's global, but it's it's certainly we led 892 00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:07,800 Speaker 7: by the North American consumer in the Caribbean and the 893 00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:10,960 Speaker 7: sort of shortly bookings are improving. It's gonna take a 894 00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,840 Speaker 7: while for cruises in China to come back, you know. 895 00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:18,240 Speaker 7: But but the North America consumer of all things leisure 896 00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:19,440 Speaker 7: is really health in there. 897 00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:20,839 Speaker 3: And that's what he does. 898 00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:24,320 Speaker 1: He's a leisure There's an institutional investor magazine category called leisure. 899 00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,160 Speaker 6: Have you gone on a cruise? 900 00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:27,320 Speaker 4: I have? I have? 901 00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:28,560 Speaker 5: You don't. 902 00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,560 Speaker 7: I've got on cruises as part of my due diligence 903 00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:35,800 Speaker 7: roles in analysts and also for fun. But I actually do, 904 00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:39,040 Speaker 7: I personally do enjoy it, which helps me. 905 00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:40,839 Speaker 2: And Paul are gonna go. We're gonna do it cruise. 906 00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:42,799 Speaker 3: We're gonna do a cruise and we have to. All right, 907 00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:44,200 Speaker 3: great step Ryanegger. 908 00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:47,080 Speaker 1: He covers all the leisure stuff, the casinos, the hotels, 909 00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:49,960 Speaker 1: the cruises, all that fun stuff you also cover, you know, 910 00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:51,080 Speaker 1: just anything that's fun. 911 00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:53,680 Speaker 3: He tends to cover, which is a great career choice. 912 00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:56,839 Speaker 3: He made it, like, yeah, he does, so it's all good. 913 00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:01,880 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Blue Burg Markets podcasts. You 914 00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:05,239 Speaker 2: can subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts or 915 00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:09,200 Speaker 2: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on 916 00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:11,799 Speaker 2: Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. 917 00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:13,120 Speaker 3: And I'm Paul Sweeney. 918 00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,759 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you 919 00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:18,239 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio