Speaker 1: Hey there everyone, and welcome to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by play MGM. I am your host,
Speaker 1: Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: Ady with me today is my very good friend who
Speaker 1: if you play fantasy football you already know and love,
Speaker 1: Mike Taglier. You can find him on Twitter at Mike
Speaker 1: Tagli air NFL tags.
Speaker 2: How you doing, buddy, I'm.
Speaker 3: Doing good man. I don't think that you realize just
Speaker 3: how much of a degenerate you are until you sit
Speaker 3: down and you stalk beat writers Twitter reports, because like,
Speaker 3: I'm playing preseason dfs tonight and uh yeah, so I've
Speaker 3: become a stalker of beat writers.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Preseason is always sort of the toughest thing to do, right,
Speaker 1: That's where you have to pay, frankly, the most attention
Speaker 1: because you have no idea who's actually going to play,
Speaker 1: what the team's plan is going to be doing. But
Speaker 1: it's a busy day with this is how. We're recording
Speaker 1: this on Wednesday. No, sorry, it's Thursday, right, yep, what
Speaker 1: day is it?
Speaker 2: Good lord?
Speaker 1: We're recording this on Thursday night, So there's a lot
Speaker 1: of preseason action to come. So I'm glad you're going
Speaker 1: to be involved, but really, TEGs, I don't want to
Speaker 1: talk about that. This is what I want to talk about.
Speaker 2: Text.
Speaker 1: You are married, of course, to a lovely lady. You
Speaker 1: have two beautiful children, and you work full time as
Speaker 1: a fantasy football analyst. But I need to ask, where
Speaker 1: do you think being on the inaugural episode of the
Speaker 1: Betting Pros podcast or ranks in terms of great moments
Speaker 1: in your life? Now, I assume, like me, your wife
Speaker 1: doesn't listen to your podcast and stuff, right, so you
Speaker 1: can be honest, this is what top three ish.
Speaker 3: I mean, it might be the top three thing that
Speaker 3: happened today.
Speaker 2: This is so disappointing.
Speaker 1: I mean, I you know, I'm gonna get in touch
Speaker 1: with our producers because I really wanted you for the
Speaker 1: first episode. But it's clearly a mistake. I want you
Speaker 1: to know, Tex. But obviously there's a disparity here because
Speaker 1: for me, this is actually the sixth best moment of
Speaker 1: my life, and I'm gonna I'm gonna give you the
Speaker 1: few that it's behind. Okay, Number one the first time
Speaker 1: I tried to shake Shack Burger. Okay, because that was
Speaker 1: for me pretty life changing. Number two the time Chad
Speaker 1: Pennington told me that I had great hair. That really
Speaker 1: I have lived on that for several years at this point.
Speaker 1: Number three the time that the lady at Coldstone Creamery
Speaker 1: said that I could just reuse the buy one, get
Speaker 1: one coupon every day for the next three days until
Speaker 1: the coupon expired. Number four the time that Marshaw Lynch
Speaker 1: did that insane run in Week sixteen against the Cardinals
Speaker 1: at the end of the game, and that capped off
Speaker 1: my most dramatic Fantasy win of all time. Do you
Speaker 1: remember that one? Like Chris Collinsworth is literally just laughing
Speaker 1: at the time that it was my avatar for my
Speaker 1: fantasy leagues have literally just been Marshall Lynch jumping backward
Speaker 1: into the end zone making a pretty inappropriate gesture.
Speaker 2: But I think it's fine.
Speaker 1: And number five was the day that I learned that
Speaker 1: normal shoe companies now make like the large clown shoes
Speaker 1: that I wear that were like extra wide, so I
Speaker 1: didn't have to order like plain white orthopedic shoes online
Speaker 1: to fit my gigantic feet. So this slot's in right
Speaker 1: at number six. It's a little disappointing to hear how
Speaker 1: little you value our interaction here. But I gotta be honest,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of pressure on you here because this
Speaker 1: is very meaningful to me. So you're going to have
Speaker 1: to deliver today. Are you okay with that?
Speaker 3: Well, we are the two best friends that anyone can have.
Speaker 3: I mean, if Bobby's listening, that includes Bobby, that includes you.
Speaker 3: We are the two best friends. You would be the
Speaker 3: third best friend.
Speaker 1: That's true, And we were actually singing that offline before
Speaker 1: I started recordings.
Speaker 3: Absolutely true.
Speaker 1: So today we're going to be talking about some NFC
Speaker 1: over under win totals, each giving a few of our
Speaker 1: favorite bets for the upcoming season. Now, I am excited
Speaker 1: for this inaugural show, as I just said, and for
Speaker 1: much of the preseason, this is what we're going to
Speaker 1: be doing on this podcast, talking about some of our
Speaker 1: best bets for the season. But for our next show,
Speaker 1: we're actually going to take a quick step back and
Speaker 1: give you kind of a primer on the landscape of
Speaker 1: sports betting, because most of you probably think that, well,
Speaker 1: sports betting is legal, so that regardless of your state,
Speaker 1: you can just Google bet on sports and place a
Speaker 1: bet on whatever website pops up. That's that's not the case.
Speaker 1: Whether you can go out and place a bet in
Speaker 1: any state, and if so, how you can actually do
Speaker 1: that is going to depend on where things stand in
Speaker 1: your particular state. So we're gonna get into all of
Speaker 1: that and more with Dustin Galker, a guy who knows
Speaker 1: more about the sports betting landscape than anyone I know.
Speaker 1: But here's the thing, and I'm going to fill you
Speaker 1: in on this a little bit before the show starts.
Speaker 1: Is that New Jersey, which spearheaded the litigation that eventually
Speaker 1: led to taking down the federal ban on sports betting,
Speaker 1: is already up and running. You heard at the top
Speaker 1: of the show that I mentioned that we are brought
Speaker 1: to you by play MGM, And you don't need me
Speaker 1: to tell you about MGM's incredible casinos or the entertainment
Speaker 1: that they offer. But if you're in New Jersey and
Speaker 1: you're wondering where to bet on sports, you really don't
Speaker 1: need to look any further. Just download the play MGM
Speaker 1: Sports app. Just go to your app store, type that
Speaker 1: in and you're going to see it right there. With
Speaker 1: the MGM Sports app, you can bet on pretty much
Speaker 1: any sport you want. That includes college football, baseball, and
Speaker 1: of course the NFL, they're going to be offering point
Speaker 1: spreads and money lines and odd boosts, futures and props
Speaker 1: in play wagering and a ton It's super easy to
Speaker 1: deposit and withdraw your money, and you can do that anywhere.
Speaker 1: To be clear, you just have to be in New
Speaker 1: Jersey to actually place your bet. But this is the
Speaker 1: best part. When you download that AUP, use the promo
Speaker 1: code Harris. That is my last name and also the
Speaker 1: first part of Harrison Ford's first name, So it's like
Speaker 1: basically impossible to forget. Just use the promo code Harris
Speaker 1: when you sign up, and when you do, you get
Speaker 1: to play your first bet risk free.
Speaker 2: That is not a joke.
Speaker 1: If you use the Harris promo code and your first
Speaker 1: waiger is twenty five dollars or more and you lose play,
Speaker 1: MGM is going to refund your wager of up to
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars. I just want to make sure that
Speaker 1: is clear to you guys, because I legitimately had to
Speaker 1: double check it. Your first wager of at least twenty
Speaker 1: five dollars is a freebie. If you lose, they're gonna
Speaker 1: refund your wager up to one hundred dollars. So just
Speaker 1: download the play MGM app, use the promo code Harris,
Speaker 1: and head to New Jersey to place your first wager.
Speaker 1: So tag's the first thing I want to do is
Speaker 1: talk a little bit, because you obviously are a fantasy analyst,
Speaker 1: I want to talk a little bit about how sports
Speaker 1: gambling impacts you as a fantasy analyst generally. So why
Speaker 1: don't you you know? Because I read your primer every week,
Speaker 1: which everybody should be doing, and I know you talk
Speaker 1: about things like implied total So I just want to
Speaker 1: know generally, how you know the lines at Vegas or
Speaker 1: any sportsbook sets kind of impacts how you think about fantasy.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a really good question, Dan. This is something
Speaker 3: that legitimately kept me up at night. And I'm not
Speaker 3: like kidding around. I'm not just saying that likes like
Speaker 3: a saying. I've literally woken up at three am sometimes
Speaker 3: when like an idea strikes me and it's like I
Speaker 3: get up to research it. And this was one of
Speaker 3: those things. I wanted to know the average amount of
Speaker 3: fantasy points scored in an average NFL game, and then
Speaker 3: I wanted to break that apart into averages based on
Speaker 3: the over under that was set for the game. I
Speaker 3: had never rese I've never released that release research that
Speaker 3: I did because I didn't want I wanted to like
Speaker 3: fine tune it and get a bigger sample size. But
Speaker 3: it definitely has an effect on fantasy output as you
Speaker 3: would expect, and it's definitely a curve. So like, as
Speaker 3: a sample in the twenty one games, when the total
Speaker 3: was in between fifty two and fifty three and a
Speaker 3: half points, that game netted on both sides of the
Speaker 3: ball one hundred and seventy nine fantasy points. By comparison,
Speaker 3: if we drop that down ten points to forty two
Speaker 3: to forty three and a half a point spread, it
Speaker 3: actually average one hundred and thirty eight point five fantasy points.
Speaker 3: So you're talking about a difference of like forty fantasy
Speaker 3: points just over forty fantasy points just because the game's
Speaker 3: over under was up ten points and we're not talking
Speaker 3: like the over under was sixty. Vegas has this locked
Speaker 3: down to the point where it's like the odds makers
Speaker 3: they set these lines, they know exactly what they're expecting,
Speaker 3: and most of the time it's going to pan out
Speaker 3: to where if you're ever torn between you know two players,
Speaker 3: you should definitely use the over under to help you
Speaker 3: decide that, particularly in DFS, because as we've seen, you know,
Speaker 3: in this research that I've done, that small sample size,
Speaker 3: is that it does affect fantasy football and if you
Speaker 3: and again if you're torn, choose the player that's got
Speaker 3: the higher over under in his game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a really great point. And frankly, that research,
Speaker 1: I mean, that was kind of a shocking number how
Speaker 1: large it was, just the difference that can be done.
Speaker 1: And in terms of just like by the week, do
Speaker 1: you think that fantasy players can in any way gain
Speaker 1: any advantage generally by paying attention sort of to sports gambling.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know they are you know, you mentioned
Speaker 1: the lines that Vegas sets and those you know, they
Speaker 1: know more about football basically and how to set those
Speaker 1: lines and where they go than anybody else in the world.
Speaker 1: But in the end, you know, the lines move, you know,
Speaker 1: during the week and stuff like that. Does any of
Speaker 1: that impact you essentially as a fantasy analyst or a
Speaker 1: fantasy player.
Speaker 3: Yes, absolutely, And you have to like it's all about
Speaker 3: correlation and you have to find those things that correlate,
Speaker 3: Like line movement itself can identify opportunity with running backs,
Speaker 3: because you do not want to tie yourself too many
Speaker 3: running backs who are double digit underdogs. Like if you're
Speaker 3: playing DFS for the week and you're like, Wow, why
Speaker 3: is this guy forty three hundred dollars? I should probably
Speaker 3: play him, and then you realize that he's a twelve
Speaker 3: point underdog. The correlation with that is terrible in terms
Speaker 3: of like four running backs. On the flip side, if
Speaker 3: you have a team that's sitting there as a favorite
Speaker 3: by two and a half points and then you see
Speaker 3: the line shift and all of a sudden it's up
Speaker 3: to five and a half points, the running back on
Speaker 3: the big favorite should be bumped up in your rankings
Speaker 3: a little bit and you should be more you know,
Speaker 3: open to playing that guy.
Speaker 1: Yeah that those are great points, And I've been doing
Speaker 1: that now for a couple of years, and it really
Speaker 1: really does make a difference, especially in DFS. So the
Speaker 1: bottom line is, even if you are just sort of
Speaker 1: even if it's not necessarily legal in your state at
Speaker 1: this point, although I'm sure we'll be soon to bet
Speaker 1: on sports paying attention necessarily to Vegas lines and the
Speaker 1: way things are moving in particular, can really give you
Speaker 1: an end, both in your season long leagues and in dfs.
Speaker 1: So why don't we then get into the bulk of
Speaker 1: the show. Now, we decided to go with the NFC
Speaker 1: because you know, i've tags as a Bears fan, as
Speaker 1: everybody pretty much knows, and so I I assume that
Speaker 1: he's got relatively strong opinions on some of the teams.
Speaker 1: So tags, why don't we do this? Why don't you
Speaker 1: start and give me what you think your best over
Speaker 1: under is for the NFC.
Speaker 3: My best one, I would say that I have Detroit
Speaker 3: under six and a half wins. That's the over under
Speaker 3: on their win total six and a half. So it's basically,
Speaker 3: if if you think they're gonna be seven and nine,
Speaker 3: you're gonna take the over. If you think they're gonna
Speaker 3: have six wins or less, you're gonna take the under. Obviously,
Speaker 3: there's no push in this situation. Seventy one percent of
Speaker 3: experts actually agree with me on this one, So it's
Speaker 3: not like, you know, I know there's gonna be put
Speaker 3: some people out there listening saying, oh, well, he's a
Speaker 3: Bears fan. I am one hundred percent. I leave those
Speaker 3: take I leave my fandom outside my job. But Detroit.
Speaker 3: You know, when you look at the division, you see
Speaker 3: that the Bears are projected to win nine or ten games.
Speaker 3: You look at Green Bay, they're projected to win nine
Speaker 3: or ten games. Minnesota the same exact thing. So where
Speaker 3: is Detroit getting their free wins? You know, the NFCS
Speaker 3: as a conference has turned like brutal, like in terms
Speaker 3: of like sheer top end talent. I would say the
Speaker 3: NFC is a tougher conference now and Detroit under Matt
Speaker 3: Patricia unfortunately, you have to be one of two things
Speaker 3: as a head coach. If you want to if you
Speaker 3: want to be you know, a nine to sevent team
Speaker 3: or whatever that is, like just like a winning coach,
Speaker 3: you have to either be a an offensive mind that
Speaker 3: your offense is so good to overcome some defensive struggles.
Speaker 3: Because to be fair, I'd rather have an offensive minded
Speaker 3: coach because the NFL is going that way they want.
Speaker 3: You know, it's like the chicks dig the long ball.
Speaker 3: It's just like chickstick touchdowns. That's basically where we're at
Speaker 3: now and Detroit they really don't have that, and now
Speaker 3: they're talking about running the ball a whole lot more.
Speaker 3: Matt Patricia is not an elite defensive coach, you know,
Speaker 3: like if you have someone like Pete Carroll who continually
Speaker 3: puts out the best team on the field, that's an
Speaker 3: elite coach in terms of he might not be an
Speaker 3: offensive mind, but his defense comes out to play every
Speaker 3: single week. We didn't see that out of Detroit last year.
Speaker 3: I don't think they have the talent and the roster,
Speaker 3: and again, they play in probably the toughest division in football,
Speaker 3: So to say that they'd win seven games, I think
Speaker 3: that's a stretch. So I'd say Detroit was more like
Speaker 3: a five and eleven or six and ten team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely think that's fair. And as we'll get
Speaker 1: to with some of my picks, I'm certainly more bullish
Speaker 1: on some of the other teams in the North. But
Speaker 1: I do want to point something out because you brought
Speaker 1: up a good point which kind of leads me sort
Speaker 1: of to what I wanted to talk about here, which
Speaker 1: is you mentioned that seventy one percent of experts are
Speaker 1: with you on the under, And just to be clear,
Speaker 1: that number comes from bettingpros dot Com, which, by the way,
Speaker 1: if you love Fantasy pros, you're really gonna love Betting
Speaker 1: Cross because it does a lot of the same things.
Speaker 1: Part of what it does is it pulls together expert
Speaker 1: picks from across various platforms, It rates the advice, and
Speaker 1: it then turns it into consensus picks. So at Betting Pros,
Speaker 1: for example, you can get consensus picks from over one
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty experts, either for over unders or against
Speaker 1: the spread. You can see accuracy ratings for everyone who's
Speaker 1: submitting picks. You can compare expert picks for any game
Speaker 1: you want, and you can see consensus odds across sports
Speaker 1: books to make it easy to compare the various odds
Speaker 1: that are out there. We're going with six and a half,
Speaker 1: as you saw for the over under for the Lions wins,
Speaker 1: and that is the consensus over under. Now it lists
Speaker 1: a bunch of different sportsbooks, and frank they're all happen
Speaker 1: to be at six and a half. But that's another
Speaker 1: thing that you're going to be able to see at
Speaker 1: Betting pros do com. So if you go into betting
Speaker 1: pros dot com and you go and you look at
Speaker 1: what the over unders are for the season, and you
Speaker 1: click on analysis under Betting Pros, you'll see seventy one
Speaker 1: percent of experts have the under including tags which you
Speaker 1: can see right there, and only twenty nine percent have
Speaker 1: the old. So that is one of the things that
Speaker 1: we're gonna be doing at the site now. Sticking with
Speaker 1: the North one of the ones I have, I'm not
Speaker 1: let's just say this, I don't expect to lose this
Speaker 1: bet with. This is the Vikings over nine wins, and
Speaker 1: the thing is, I nine wins to me feels very safe,
Speaker 1: and so I'm looking at this as the worst case
Speaker 1: scenario as sort of a push.
Speaker 2: You can't push with.
Speaker 1: The Lions, they're six and a half. Obviously you're gonna
Speaker 1: win or you're gonna lose. With the Vikings at nine,
Speaker 1: I feel relatively confident at this point that they're gonna
Speaker 1: make at least nine, but I feel pretty good about
Speaker 1: them getting to ten, possibly eleven. They brought in Gary Kubiak,
Speaker 1: who I don't even know what his exact job title
Speaker 1: is at this point, quarterback whisper, whatever it is, is
Speaker 1: an offensive advisor, but he's basically like a guarantee to
Speaker 1: have a top ten offense, and he emphasizes play action
Speaker 1: pass and I really think that that's gonna benefit Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 1: So I do expect the offense, which really sort of
Speaker 1: struggled later on down the stretch, to be better. And
Speaker 1: the team drafted Garrett Bradbury out of North Carolina State.
Speaker 1: To me, that really really bulks up their offensive line.
Speaker 1: And best of all, he is familiar with the zone
Speaker 1: blocking scheme that Kubiak likes to implement, you know, and
Speaker 1: I think Dalvin Cook as well, he's familiar with his
Speaker 1: zone blocking scheme, so he's going to be back healthy.
Speaker 1: I'm really excited about it. And the defense, which was
Speaker 1: you know, i'll say maybe not elite but definitely above average,
Speaker 1: is largely intact, so sort of for the same reasons
Speaker 1: that you do not like the Lions. In the end,
Speaker 1: I kind of think that the Vikings are probably going
Speaker 1: to win both their games against the Lions to start,
Speaker 1: and I really expect them to have a strong season
Speaker 1: this year.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean, the Vikings are a team that under achieved
Speaker 3: last year for sure, and I think that they've always
Speaker 3: had that elite defense. You know, that's one of those
Speaker 3: teams where it's like Mike Zimmer's coach that great defense,
Speaker 3: and once Pat Schrimer left, you kind of just felt like, Okay,
Speaker 3: the talent is there. You know, they brought in Cousins
Speaker 3: and the offense is going to be competent enough to
Speaker 3: get into the playoffs, and they fell apart. Cousins, you know,
Speaker 3: was really up and down in his performances. But you
Speaker 3: know year two in that offense, you know, upgrading the
Speaker 3: offensive line. You know, the defense won't be on the
Speaker 3: field hopefully as much. If they can run the ball
Speaker 3: with Dalvin Cook, if he could stay healthy, I think
Speaker 3: nine wins is right. It's about right for them. Again,
Speaker 3: they play in this tough division, tough conference. But if
Speaker 3: they get everything together and if Kubiak, if they do
Speaker 3: pick up that offense, I could see ten wins out
Speaker 3: of this team. It's just it's really tough to do
Speaker 3: that in the NFC now, And which kind of like
Speaker 3: it's like a good segue to my next team that
Speaker 3: I would have as under is ten and a half
Speaker 3: the New Orleans Saints ten and a half wins. I'm
Speaker 3: going to go under that. The Saints are a good roster,
Speaker 3: but their defense is a little suspect. Okay, Sean Payton's
Speaker 3: always been an elite play caller. We know that that
Speaker 3: offense is going to show up losing Mark Ingram probably
Speaker 3: not going to lose anything in that offense, replacing him
Speaker 3: with Latavious Murray, losing their starting center, that's not ideal
Speaker 3: on the offensive line. That's going to downgrade that a
Speaker 3: little bit. But it's not so much about the offense.
Speaker 3: This is more about the inconsistency on defense and particularly
Speaker 3: in their secondary outside of Actually, I should say Marcus
Speaker 3: Latimore took a step back last year and then they
Speaker 3: traded for Eli Apple, who he's just a mediocre guy.
Speaker 3: I just feel like that defense, I know they've added
Speaker 3: a few pieces to it, is a little too inconsistent
Speaker 3: for them to for you to say, oh, I'm guarantee,
Speaker 3: I'm gonna say they're gonna win eleven games. They're gonna
Speaker 3: go eleven and five. Atlanta is a really good football team.
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is now coached by Bruce Arians. I would
Speaker 3: I would assume that Arians Indivision is gonna win one
Speaker 3: of those games against them. Breeze when he plays outdoors again,
Speaker 3: maybe that game is at Tampa Bay. When he plays outdoors,
Speaker 3: he's not as good. Carolina is always competitive under Ron Rivera,
Speaker 3: So to win eleven games. I don't see how anybody
Speaker 3: could take the over on New Orleans. I would have
Speaker 3: set that line of ten and made someone pick. You know,
Speaker 3: are you gonna say, are you willing to lay that
Speaker 3: rake in order to bet New Orleans? But the ten
Speaker 3: and a half is just too high?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you, And you know this is
Speaker 1: gonna be a little overly simplistic, but you know, eventually,
Speaker 1: I just it's really hard to bet on eleven games
Speaker 1: when Breeze is what forty years old at this point.
Speaker 1: I mean, I love the guy, but you know, it's
Speaker 1: father time is undefeated unless you know your name is
Speaker 1: Tom Brady essentially, so at some point the ride is
Speaker 1: gonna end. And that is just such a huge number.
Speaker 1: And I know, you know that they can they can
Speaker 1: put up a thirteen and three season really any year.
Speaker 1: But you're right, you know, the Panthers I like a lot.
Speaker 1: I may talk about them if we get there, you know.
Speaker 1: And again, yeah, Bruce arians certainly making the Bucks better.
Speaker 1: So I'm definitely a little worried about the Saints right now.
Speaker 1: I would also go under with that. I don't think
Speaker 1: it's one of my best bets necessarily, but it is
Speaker 1: something where when I choose it, when I put it
Speaker 1: on the site, I am going to be going under
Speaker 1: ten and a half for me. My second is the
Speaker 1: Giants under five and a half wins. Now, that is
Speaker 1: a really, really low total, but I cannot see any
Speaker 1: scenario where this team even remotely succeeds. The best thing
Speaker 1: I can say about them in terms of basically having
Speaker 1: that bet lose is that they get to face the
Speaker 1: Redskins twice. That's really it. And they obviously don't have
Speaker 1: Beckham anymore. Golden Tate is suspended, Sterling Shepard is dealing
Speaker 1: with his broken thumb. Corey Coleman's out for the season.
Speaker 1: I mean, I love Saquon Barkley, I love Evan Ingram,
Speaker 1: but I mean, come on, on the defense, I mean,
Speaker 1: maybe Lorenzo Carter is gonna emerge, you know, maybe Marcus
Speaker 1: Golden's gonna get back to it, but it's certainly not
Speaker 1: overly impressive. The offensive line has absolutely no depth. I mean,
Speaker 1: Nate Solder and Mike Grammars are probably they're already battling injury.
Speaker 1: I don't even know if they're going to play in
Speaker 1: the preseason. If they have an injury there, they're really
Speaker 1: going to struggle. And the only thing that makes me
Speaker 1: even remotely think about this bet for me is that
Speaker 1: their schedule, they certainly have winnable games. They've got the
Speaker 1: two against the Redskins, as I said, they're home against Buffalo,
Speaker 1: They're home against the Cardinals, They're at the Jets, which
Speaker 1: obviously is not an actual away game. They're home against Miami.
Speaker 1: So there are some winnable games out there. But for me,
Speaker 1: betting against David Getleman is a pretty good bet, and
Speaker 1: I feel just. I mean, six wins, it's not a
Speaker 1: big number, but for me, even them getting there, it
Speaker 1: feels like almost everything needs to break right.
Speaker 3: I would tend to agree with you. I don't see
Speaker 3: a strong point in this team at all outside of
Speaker 3: Saquon Barkley. Like that defense is decimated. Their cornerback depth
Speaker 3: chart is a joke. They have two new safeties. Safeties
Speaker 3: are kind of like an offensive line to me, where
Speaker 3: it's like the continuity the communication between those guys. To
Speaker 3: have continuity there, it means a lot. And you know,
Speaker 3: when you have two new safeties, or even if you
Speaker 3: replaced one, it's they're playing as a new group and
Speaker 3: there can be miscommunications over the top, And uh, yeah,
Speaker 3: I am with you on this one. I actually had
Speaker 3: the Giants there, they weren't there. They would have been
Speaker 3: my like number four pick the NFC teams. But I'm
Speaker 3: definitely with you on that one.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just, you know, literally as good as
Speaker 1: Saquon is, how you know, how is he ever not
Speaker 1: going to see a completely stacked box? How is he
Speaker 1: ever not going to have a spy on him? No
Speaker 1: matter what happens, they have no weapons out there other
Speaker 1: than Ingram. It's really just something where it's really hard
Speaker 1: to see a scenario where they get to even six wins.
Speaker 1: And again that's a low total, a really really low total.
Speaker 1: It's five and a half. I mean, six wins is
Speaker 1: nothing you can kind of fall into it. But you know,
Speaker 1: this team is almost kind of historically bad in the
Speaker 1: way that I look at it. So that's certainly one
Speaker 1: of my strong ones. How about you, what's number three
Speaker 1: for you?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Number three is Philadelphia? And again this is it's
Speaker 3: really tough to say that a seams gonna win double
Speaker 3: digit games, but Philadelphia the line at nine and a half.
Speaker 3: I like it because nine and seven is what they
Speaker 3: went last year. They legitimately were down like four of
Speaker 3: their five top cornerbacks at one point in the season.
Speaker 3: They lost Carson Wentz, you know, they had some injuries
Speaker 3: to the wide receivers. There were so many things that
Speaker 3: anything that could have went wrong essentially for the Eagles
Speaker 3: last year, did go wrong, and they still went nine
Speaker 3: to seven. Doug Peterson has proven that he's a phenomenal coach.
Speaker 3: He has this team well prepared. Next man up on
Speaker 3: the depth chart, Okay, you're gonna step in, You're gonna
Speaker 3: do this, and they do it. But they've upgraded their roster.
Speaker 3: They're actually they're going to walk in healthy. They have
Speaker 3: Miles Sanders now, who's a true three down back. They
Speaker 3: don't have to necessarily rotate and be predictive with their
Speaker 3: running backs. Carson Wentz seems to be like fully healthy.
Speaker 3: Adding to Shawn Jackson is massive for that offense. He
Speaker 3: may not be the best fantasy player this year, but
Speaker 3: in terms from a real football standpoint, DeShawn Jackson changes
Speaker 3: the way that you approach an offense. And if he's
Speaker 3: able to stretch the field and pull a safety his way,
Speaker 3: that means Alshon Jeffery is going to be in man coverage,
Speaker 3: Nelson Agler is back in the slot where he belongs.
Speaker 3: You know, they tried pushing him outside when they traded
Speaker 3: for Golden Tate last year. The Eagles just tried to doing
Speaker 3: everything that they possibly could last year, and they just
Speaker 3: they came up short, and they made it a lot
Speaker 3: further than a lot of other teams would have. But
Speaker 3: knowing that Dallas is probably gonna be without Ezekiel Elliott,
Speaker 3: it seems right now, knowing that, you know, the Giants,
Speaker 3: as we just talked about, not a good football team,
Speaker 3: the Washington Redskins are a terrible football team as well.
Speaker 3: It seems like they're gonna be starting Colt McCoy. We've
Speaker 3: seen this story before. So I think the Eagles I
Speaker 3: would take the over. And I was surprised to see
Speaker 3: that seventy one percent of experts agree with me on
Speaker 3: that one.
Speaker 2: You were surprised to see that.
Speaker 3: I was just because it's it is really tough to
Speaker 3: predict ten wins for a team.
Speaker 1: I know, but tex they basically got four in the bank, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, you know you can't say that about most.
Speaker 1: Seems like you said, with Washington and with the Giants, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, can you really realistically, can you see any
Speaker 1: scenario absent catastrophic injury, where they league where they lose
Speaker 1: any of those games those four games?
Speaker 3: I would like to say, No. I mean, I'm sure
Speaker 3: there's probably one, because there's always that one that you're
Speaker 3: just like, how'd that get away? But division like.
Speaker 1: When the Bills, but when the Bills beat the Vikings.
Speaker 3: Or like when the Dolphins beat the Patriots or the
Speaker 3: Dolphins beat the Bears. Yeah, that was fun.
Speaker 1: Now, I guess that that's it's fair. But no, I
Speaker 1: mean when I that's certainly a great one. That was
Speaker 1: one of mine. For sure, I would not at all
Speaker 1: be surprised at the seventy one percent mark because I
Speaker 1: feel pretty strongly about that. Again, it's just you know, yes,
Speaker 1: of course there's a possibility. But for the most part,
Speaker 1: there are a handful of teams that you're gonna be
Speaker 1: able to really pick on this year, and you know,
Speaker 1: the Eagles are in a division with two of them,
Speaker 1: and you know the fact that they get four games
Speaker 1: against them really makes a difference for me. You know, again,
Speaker 1: this is one where I think most people are gonna
Speaker 1: look at the number and they're gonna think the number
Speaker 1: is pretty on and that's the Packers over nine. Again,
Speaker 1: this is not a half, this is nine. So again
Speaker 1: part of my thinking here is if you hit the
Speaker 1: number when it's not a half and you push, you're fine.
Speaker 1: You haven't lost any money or anything like that. So
Speaker 1: this is one of the ways that I like it,
Speaker 1: and I do expect them to go over Now I'm
Speaker 1: not I'm not going overboard with this one.
Speaker 2: I do have actual.
Speaker 1: Personal money in it. When I went to Vegas, this
Speaker 1: was one of the ones that I placed. The schedule
Speaker 1: is certainly rough. I mean, you know, we've talked about
Speaker 1: the North. They get the Bears and the Vikings. They
Speaker 1: play the Eagles, they play the Cowboy, they played the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: they played the Chargers. It's not, by any means an
Speaker 1: easy schedule. But you know, the loss of Mike McCarthy
Speaker 1: is basically worth like three wins at this point. I
Speaker 1: don't even know how Matt Lafleur is going to be
Speaker 1: as a coach, but I don't really care. More so
Speaker 1: even than the offense, although the offense is something, is
Speaker 1: that the defense. I mean, they were allowing twenty five
Speaker 1: points per game last year and they just added a
Speaker 1: heck of a lot to that defense. I've got Zadarius
Speaker 1: Smith and Preston Smith, Adriana Mike Daniels. For whatever reason, right,
Speaker 1: that was a little weird. I don't know, Tags, actually,
Speaker 1: I've been meaning to talk to about it. Do you
Speaker 1: have insight into why they did that?
Speaker 3: I don't. I think it was idiotic and now he
Speaker 3: signs with your division rival like, way to go, dummies.
Speaker 3: I mean, didn't make any sense to me. None.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it didn't to me either. But it doesn't
Speaker 1: change the fact that I still think, you know, and
Speaker 1: their draft with Rashaun Gary, and I really think that
Speaker 1: in the end, their defense is going to be so
Speaker 1: much better than last year. And more than that, I
Speaker 1: know Rogers is getting up there. I just have this feeling, Tags,
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna come out and he's gonna go
Speaker 1: nuts because I think that he is so motivated to
Speaker 1: basically show that McCarthy was really the cause of the
Speaker 1: is Now he was injured, of course, and he gets
Speaker 1: injured fairly regularly, but I think that this is going
Speaker 1: to be a ginormous year for Aaron Rodgers. Again, the
Speaker 1: schedule is tough, I completely agree, but I think with
Speaker 1: that defense sort of, you know, getting so much better
Speaker 1: from last year, and with Rogers being motivated and with
Speaker 1: Aaron Jones for the entire season, I really think that
Speaker 1: this is going to be a big year for them.
Speaker 2: And again, the way I look.
Speaker 1: At this sort of thing is I don't mind placing
Speaker 1: a bet where I feel pretty confident we're gonna win.
Speaker 1: But I feel really confident that it's not gonna lose,
Speaker 1: you know, because I think the number nine is going
Speaker 1: to be hit. I don't see them as a five
Speaker 1: hundred team. I think they're going to be above despite
Speaker 1: the division. Of course they can beat up on the Lions.
Speaker 1: Is essentially for the reasons that you said. But for me,
Speaker 1: you know, I think nine is a good number. I
Speaker 1: know why it's set there, but I'm I feel pretty
Speaker 1: comfortable that they're going to get to ten wins.
Speaker 3: I wish I could refer you in this situation, but
Speaker 3: I cannot. But I don't know if I could. The
Speaker 3: nine line, I don't like if it was eight and
Speaker 3: a half and you want to say nine to seven, Okay,
Speaker 3: I can't see ten wins in this division from them.
Speaker 3: I mean, yes, they have some talent on the defense now,
Speaker 3: but there's there's still a lot of young guys that
Speaker 3: are still somewhat unproven. You could say that you liked
Speaker 3: him as a prospect or you like them their potential,
Speaker 3: but they may not all come together. The safeties are
Speaker 3: also a big question mark. Again, they drafted. They drafted
Speaker 3: some players in the defense, which should help, but again
Speaker 3: in that tough division. Don't I don't know why Matt
Speaker 3: Leafleour got a head coaching job. I mean, I'm gonna
Speaker 3: be real honest about that. Like, I'm not saying that
Speaker 3: he won't turn out to be a good coach. He could.
Speaker 3: He could, but I just don't understand how he got
Speaker 3: that job. Like, did anybody watch the Titans offense last year?
Speaker 3: It wasn't good. And I know that people want to
Speaker 3: blame Marcus Mariota, and that's fine. I remember when people
Speaker 3: were blaming Jared Goff for being bad under Jeff Fisher
Speaker 3: and then like Sean McVay came in. That's where people
Speaker 3: are going wrong with Matt Lafleur is that they're believing
Speaker 3: that he had something to do with the Rams. Now
Speaker 3: he was under Sean McVay, he hit the title of
Speaker 3: offensive coordinator, but he was not calling the place. Sean
Speaker 3: McVay is always called the plays there, and then Lafloor
Speaker 3: he just got too cute, like trying to do things
Speaker 3: like mixing and matching Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry. And
Speaker 3: I thought he may have learned his lesson at the
Speaker 3: end of the season by you know, like when you
Speaker 3: watch Derrick Henry, I know they had good game scripts
Speaker 3: in them, but he kept Derrick Henry on the field
Speaker 3: and good things happened because of it. And now that
Speaker 3: he went to Green Bay, I'm like, Okay, he had
Speaker 3: to have learned right. And anybody that's watched football knows
Speaker 3: that Aaron Jones is the best running back on that
Speaker 3: roster and it's not even all that close. And Mike
Speaker 3: McCarthy was all about, oh he's got a past block
Speaker 3: and this, and it's a bunch of garbage. Mike McCarthy
Speaker 3: was a terrible coach.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really, I want to ask you text legitimately
Speaker 1: last year, how many coaches were worse than Mike McCarthy.
Speaker 3: No, No, it's not even just last year. Like I so,
Speaker 3: I came out with an article before last season, so
Speaker 3: it wasn't like it wasn't like, oh, you just said
Speaker 3: that because they suck no No. Before last season, I
Speaker 3: came out with an article and I had McCarthy as
Speaker 3: a bottom I think it was bottom six head coach
Speaker 3: in the league. And everybody's like, how are you going
Speaker 3: to say that they've been to the playoffs? Blah blah.
Speaker 3: I'm like, it's it's really easy to say that when
Speaker 3: you have Aaron Rodgers and Brett Farv like throughout your career,
Speaker 3: like you've you've literally been handed a gift on a
Speaker 3: silver platter and you've done nothing with it, Like Rogers
Speaker 3: has won Super Bowl. That's pathetic.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And you know they were obviously talking about him
Speaker 1: possibly coming to the Jets, and so when we hired Gates,
Speaker 1: I was like doing cartwheels because legitimately I'm not a
Speaker 1: gays fan, of course, but anybody was better for me
Speaker 1: than Mike McCarthy, And I think that's sort of my point.
Speaker 1: I don't really care that much about matt leafore, because
Speaker 1: I think legitimately, addition by subtraction, getting rid of Mike McCarthy,
Speaker 1: even if you turn the offense over entirely to Rogers
Speaker 1: and let him do what he wants. I just think,
Speaker 1: especially with the increased defense, you know, with how good
Speaker 1: they're gonna be there, I really just expect this. They're
Speaker 1: gonna I think they're gonna, you know, surpass expectations. I remember,
Speaker 1: they do have a lot of tough games on their schedule,
Speaker 1: but you know, they also play the East, they get
Speaker 1: the Giants, they get the Redskins, are they get the Raiders?
Speaker 1: You know, there's a ton of really winnable games out there.
Speaker 1: And you know, look, I mean neither one of us.
Speaker 1: My guess is you're probably gonna come with me. I
Speaker 1: believe the Bears are set at eight at the over
Speaker 1: under eight?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 2: And what they win twelve last year? Or are they
Speaker 2: nine there?
Speaker 3: Oh last year?
Speaker 2: No? No, no they're not.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're at nine this year.
Speaker 1: Okay, And what do you think about that? That sounds
Speaker 1: to me about right.
Speaker 3: It's about right. Yeah, That's what I'm saying. Like them,
Speaker 3: and I could see Minnesota being right there at nine
Speaker 3: ten ten wins, Like if the Bears or the Vikings
Speaker 3: won nine or ten games, I would like that's that
Speaker 3: seems about right. I just don't think that they can
Speaker 3: all win nine or ten games. I think there's gonna
Speaker 3: be one or two teams that disappoint. And if there's
Speaker 3: one coach that I know that I don't like very much,
Speaker 3: it's it's Matt Lafleur so far from what I've seen,
Speaker 3: because I just don't know if he's competent enough. And
Speaker 3: granted he has what I consider to be the most
Speaker 3: talented quarterback of all time during the football And that's
Speaker 3: the part of me that's like it really sucks because,
Speaker 3: like Aaron, I've had Rogers and far of in my
Speaker 3: in the division with the Bears for such a long time,
Speaker 3: and I appreciate the hell out of both those guys.
Speaker 3: Like Brett Favre is a warrior, he was more of
Speaker 3: a gunslinger, But Aaron Rodgers the most talented quarterback I've
Speaker 3: ever seen play the game. And I would love nothing
Speaker 3: more than Rogers to like show the world like I
Speaker 3: am an elite quarterback, Like what do you like? People
Speaker 3: are like so downplaying Aaron Rodgers this year, Like even
Speaker 3: in fantasy football, he's falling to like the fourth or
Speaker 3: fifth quarterback off the board this year, and I'm like,
Speaker 3: did you guys forget who this guy is? Like just
Speaker 3: because of one bad year? And and by the way,
Speaker 3: we're calling it a bad year. He had twenty five
Speaker 3: touchdowns and two interceptions.
Speaker 1: Also, he was playing on one leg the whole year.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, that's everybody's kind of forgetting that,
Speaker 1: and that is also sort of the point.
Speaker 2: And I agree with you. I mean, Rogers.
Speaker 1: You know, we talk about best quarterback you know, of
Speaker 1: all time all the time, and there's the whole Brady thing,
Speaker 1: of course, but Rogers is certainly, if not the best,
Speaker 1: but the most talented maybe quarterback of all time, and
Speaker 1: he can do things with the football that really nobody
Speaker 1: else in the game can do. To me, man, Look again,
Speaker 1: part of it is anecdotal, and it really is. I
Speaker 1: mean again, but I just feel like this is going
Speaker 1: to be the year. This is going to be a
Speaker 1: big year for them. And I agree, I'm not a
Speaker 1: Matt Lafleur fan, but I don't really care. I just
Speaker 1: think that things are going to be so much better
Speaker 1: for them. And again, I think Mike McCarthy has been
Speaker 1: a terrible coach for a long time, as you said.
Speaker 1: And they were still, of course a very successful football team.
Speaker 1: I mean, they didn't win they only won one Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: but they were a good team year after year, and
Speaker 1: I think Rodgers has enough to do that. Now I'll
Speaker 1: back with a good defense. I really think that they're
Speaker 1: going to get over the nine. And again I really
Speaker 1: to me, I could be wrong here, but I really
Speaker 1: just I don't see them being a five hundred football team.
Speaker 1: I see them at least getting to nine wins, which
Speaker 1: again to me, means fine, I'm safe. It's a push.
Speaker 1: No matter what happens after that, I think we're gonna
Speaker 1: be out.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: So when you have an A league quarterback like him,
Speaker 3: a nine wins as well within reach for sure. It's
Speaker 3: just getting to that ten that's a problem.
Speaker 1: I think that that is a fair point, especially because
Speaker 1: again I'm also bullish on the Vikings and I'm not
Speaker 1: bearish on the Bears. Hey that worth, but you know,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm not probably you know, I think the numbers
Speaker 1: probably right. I might go under for the eight wins,
Speaker 1: but we'll see, all right. So are there any other
Speaker 1: over unders that stuck out to you as something that
Speaker 1: you think would be enticing or were those really the
Speaker 1: three that caught your eyes?
Speaker 3: Those were the ones that were really big, Like, like
Speaker 3: I said, the Giants, I would have taken the under
Speaker 3: on the Giants. I also got down to the forty
Speaker 3: nine ers at seven and a half wins, and I
Speaker 3: was like, I think I'd go the under on that.
Speaker 2: I mean, Cole, they had a bad day. They had
Speaker 2: a bad day today. Tags.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you you know McKinnon, I saw that,
Speaker 1: you know, sounds like he may need to go on
Speaker 1: the IR because they can't place him back on the
Speaker 1: pup list. He's dealing with some problems. I think was
Speaker 1: Jason Barrett.
Speaker 3: Verrett, He's they're saying it's an angle sprain, but I
Speaker 3: think they did sign someone in order to like at
Speaker 3: least have a body, and that's that's terrible because they.
Speaker 2: Have zero depth a corner right exactly.
Speaker 3: That's why I was wondering. It's like, you guys just
Speaker 3: have to a punter. What was it in the fourth
Speaker 3: round And I was like, wait, you guys could have
Speaker 3: taken some cornerback depth, Like what are you doing?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 3: I felt like that's a roster that. I mean, their
Speaker 3: front seven got a lot better this offseason, so that's
Speaker 3: always a positive, but the back end is not good.
Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo we still never seen him play over well
Speaker 3: over an entire season. Kyle Shanahan, while he was a
Speaker 3: great offensive coordinator, I think there's certain people in his life,
Speaker 3: like in this world, that are just destined to be
Speaker 3: coordinators rather than head coaches. And I'm not saying that
Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan is one of those because he's had a
Speaker 3: lot of injuries to his key players. But it's very possible.
Speaker 3: Like think about it, Hugh Jackson was considered a really
Speaker 3: good offensive coordinator, and he was like one of the
Speaker 3: worst head coaches of all time. I just think certain
Speaker 3: guys would just handle the jobs so much better when
Speaker 3: they could focus just on their offense. I hope Kyle
Speaker 3: Shanan's not one of those guys, because I wanted to
Speaker 3: see him succeed in that role. But seven and a
Speaker 3: half wins, I mean, when you have the Rams, the Seahawks,
Speaker 3: I mean, the Cardinals are whatever. They could be a
Speaker 3: surprise team this year if that offense takes.
Speaker 1: Actually held on held on before that's exactly right. I
Speaker 1: do want to ask you a little bit before you
Speaker 1: know we start wrapping up here. I do want to
Speaker 1: ask you about some of the other teams. The Cardinals
Speaker 1: are at five games. What do you think about the
Speaker 1: over under und.
Speaker 3: I actually debated saying the over on the show. And
Speaker 3: then I was looking at their schedule and I was
Speaker 3: going through like pickout games, and there was only like
Speaker 3: four that I could say like, I for sure saw
Speaker 3: them winning. But the thing is is they they can surprise,
Speaker 3: Like absolutely, I feel like that's a team where they
Speaker 3: can catch teams by surprise. You know, they're playing Detroit
Speaker 3: week one, and Detroit they can beat Detroit, all right.
Speaker 3: They played Baltimore in Week two. That's another that's a
Speaker 3: run heavy team. The Baltimore defense lost a lot of
Speaker 3: pieces this year. I think they can potentially surprise Baltimore,
Speaker 3: not saying they will win that game. Carolina, again, that's
Speaker 3: a team that's re building. Get like they've gotten a
Speaker 3: lot younger. They should. That should be a pretty good
Speaker 3: game between those two teams. They have Cincinnati and that,
Speaker 3: so it's like if they get off to a little
Speaker 3: hot start, it's like they could build some momentum. I
Speaker 3: could see six and ten for them one hundred percent.
Speaker 3: But it's just do I want to put money on it?
Speaker 3: Because I don't. I So when Kyler Murray was drafted
Speaker 3: the number one overall, I didn't think that he in
Speaker 3: most draft classes, he would not have been number one overall.
Speaker 3: I think this is a week class. I'm not a
Speaker 3: huge Kyler Murray guy. I might be wrong on that,
Speaker 3: but what I saw in college was a guy that
Speaker 3: didn't anticipate his throws very much. He basically had he
Speaker 3: bought time with his legs. He did have a good
Speaker 3: offensive line there, he had a receiver that can shake
Speaker 3: loose if any defender and Marquis Brown if he bought
Speaker 3: some time and he just waited till players were open
Speaker 3: too much. There was no anticipation like in a route.
Speaker 3: And I don't know how that's gonna work. I know
Speaker 3: Kingsbury people are excited about it, and it might work,
Speaker 3: you know, the air raid offense, the four or five
Speaker 3: wide receiver sets, whatever you want to do. But that's
Speaker 3: where it's like the whole Chip Kelly business where it's like,
Speaker 3: you know, nobody really knows what they're doing and they
Speaker 3: are gonna They're not showing anything the preseason from what
Speaker 3: we understand, so.
Speaker 1: Right, but you know, Kelly was successful when he first
Speaker 1: came in, I mean catch up, right, and but it
Speaker 1: took it took a year, It took a couple of years.
Speaker 1: That's that's kind of how why I You know, the
Speaker 1: way you have described your feeling on the Cardinals is
Speaker 1: exactly how I feel, because I really wanted to take
Speaker 1: the number over five. I mean that is such a
Speaker 1: lot number. Yeah, you've already named a couple of normal games.
Speaker 1: They also they played the Giants. I mean, they can
Speaker 1: beat the Bucks. You know, you we really don't necessarily
Speaker 1: know what that's gonna be, and they really can kind
Speaker 1: of surprise you. But it is again another one where
Speaker 1: I just said, I just can't do it because I
Speaker 1: just I don't feel confident enough in what's going to
Speaker 1: go on. And again the rest of the division, as
Speaker 1: you said, the forty nine ers, I kind of feel
Speaker 1: the same way as you do. But what I mean, look,
Speaker 1: the the Seahawks are at eight and a half. Would
Speaker 1: you go over under them?
Speaker 3: I'd probably say over. I mean, like they've lost so
Speaker 3: much on defense. But Pete Carroll just always gets it done.
Speaker 1: I mean, Wilson's never had a losing record, right, right,
Speaker 1: He's always had nine wins or more.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: And again, we kind of expected the same thing last year.
Speaker 2: We expected that major decline.
Speaker 3: Boom's gone and they still they still won nine games.
Speaker 1: I know, now they've got no Doug Baldwin, you know,
Speaker 1: and and NOWHEREL Thomas and everything like that, but you know,
Speaker 1: they just do it every year. So it's really tough
Speaker 1: to see them, especially in their home park. And I
Speaker 1: do want to say one because I can almost guarantee
Speaker 1: that we're going to disagree on this one. But what
Speaker 1: would you do with the Rams at ten and a
Speaker 1: half again?
Speaker 3: I have to go under on that one.
Speaker 2: I I'd go over. I'd go over.
Speaker 1: Honestly, it's I don't feel super super strongly about them.
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily expect them to win thirteen games again.
Speaker 1: And you know, in the end it comes down a
Speaker 1: little bit too. That's a giant number, Okay. I mean
Speaker 1: as much as you're like, well they won thirteen eleven
Speaker 1: wins is a giant number, It'll just basically be like,
Speaker 1: this is what's going to happen one hundred percent agree,
Speaker 1: especially again in you know, with having to face Seattle,
Speaker 1: it's going to be good. And you've got the question
Speaker 1: mark around Gurley's knee. But I mean even last year,
Speaker 1: man CJ. Anderson like just you know, just came off
Speaker 1: the street kind of and just rumbled for one hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty seven yards against the Cards and one hundred
Speaker 1: and thirty two against the forty nine ers, and we
Speaker 1: cut back and you know, they they I know they've
Speaker 1: lost some Dominican Sue and la Marcus Joiner, but they
Speaker 1: added Clay Matthews and Eric Weddle. To me, I just
Speaker 1: I kind of feel like they're gonna have another big season.
Speaker 1: You get another year from GoF, You've still got Wade
Speaker 1: Phillips on the defense, still got Aaron Donald. I kind
Speaker 1: of just feel like they're gonna go over. But again,
Speaker 1: this is one all of these on the NFC West,
Speaker 1: they're all where I feel like I have an opinion,
Speaker 1: but I can't really do it, you know what I mean,
Speaker 1: I can't pull the trigger on being like this is
Speaker 1: one that I feel confident in.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would. It's tough for me to say any
Speaker 3: team wins eleven games, like I understand it's definitely possible
Speaker 3: losing Domakan Sue up front. I think that defense is
Speaker 3: the weak point. I think that, and it's also it
Speaker 3: could be like we're in it for the long run
Speaker 3: type thing where it's like they've talked about resting Gurley
Speaker 3: and if they do that and you know Darryl Henderson
Speaker 3: isn't the player that they thought he was going to be,
Speaker 3: or you know, they lose a step without Todd Gurley
Speaker 3: that offensive line. They lost two starting offensive linemen this offseason.
Speaker 3: That's a problem. Like there's things that are changing with
Speaker 3: that team. And it's just to me, it's like ten
Speaker 3: and six is cool, but like eleven and five, you're like, man,
Speaker 3: it's You're like, Seattle's gonna beat you one of those games.
Speaker 3: You know, you just know that's gonna happen. It's like,
Speaker 3: does Arizona eke out a win against them? And I
Speaker 3: know that LA actually has a really easy schedule at
Speaker 3: the start the year, and then like it gets tougher
Speaker 3: at the end. So I don't know, man, it's just
Speaker 3: so tough to project somebody for That's why I went
Speaker 3: New Orleans under ten and a half because I just can't.
Speaker 3: I can't project them for eleven.
Speaker 2: No, I agree with that.
Speaker 1: Okay, how about we do this send Neither one of
Speaker 1: us is willing, of course, to put any actual money
Speaker 1: on this, So how about we make a little friendly
Speaker 1: wager then on over under ten and a half for
Speaker 1: the rams. I'll take the over, you take the under,
Speaker 1: and the loser can get something for the winner from
Speaker 1: Pristine Auction.
Speaker 3: Sounds like a deal.
Speaker 1: Okay, good That actually leads me, which is good to
Speaker 1: our August contest, because I mean, look, if you've listened
Speaker 1: to Tags on the Fantasy Pros podcast, you've heard about
Speaker 1: Pristine Auction before.
Speaker 2: They're great.
Speaker 1: They auction off a ton of sports memorabilia, and if
Speaker 1: you are not familiar with them, you can probably go
Speaker 1: to Tags's house or my house and you would see
Speaker 1: a ton of stuff because we love it there and
Speaker 1: at We're gonna do a little contest here involving Christine
Speaker 1: Auction for August, and we are going to give away
Speaker 1: a full sized autographed Christian McCaffrey helmet. So all you
Speaker 1: need to do to be entered into the contest is
Speaker 1: to leave a review for the show on either iTunes
Speaker 1: or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to
Speaker 1: contest at Bettingpros dot com. At the end of August,
Speaker 1: we're gonna randomly choose a winner. And guys, understand this.
Speaker 1: This is literally the inaugural episode, which means absolutely nothing
Speaker 1: to Tags, but is like the highlight of my life.
Speaker 1: You don't start a podcast with a ton of reviews
Speaker 1: that are already sitting there. I mean, if you guys
Speaker 1: go to leave a review, you might be one of
Speaker 1: the first ten people to leave a review. So it's
Speaker 1: not as if there are hundreds of people right now
Speaker 1: who are going to be entering this contest. Go ahead,
Speaker 1: leave a review and screenshot it and send it to
Speaker 1: a contest at bettingpros dot com at the end of August.
Speaker 1: We are going to pick a winner. And if you
Speaker 1: are the winner, please make sure to at me on
Speaker 1: Twitter with a picture the helmet because I kind of
Speaker 1: want to see it myself.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm getting a free Christian McCaffrey helmet and like
Speaker 3: having like maybe like a one to twenty five chance
Speaker 3: for like.
Speaker 2: Come on that, That's what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: And I said this, you know, I you know, I
Speaker 1: host you know, the Leading Off podcast for baseball, And
Speaker 1: that was sort of something that I wanted to stress
Speaker 1: because when you're a new podcast, you're not sitting there
Speaker 1: with a ton of reviews because you have just started.
Speaker 1: You can go ahead, leave her you and send it
Speaker 1: in and right it might be twenty five people it
Speaker 1: might be fifty people. It takes two seconds and you
Speaker 1: can win an autographed Christian McCaffrey helmet. I mean, that's awesome.
Speaker 1: I'm out here, you know, obviously bidding to try to
Speaker 1: you know, pay for signed memorabilia, and if you can
Speaker 1: win it for free, there's really no reason not to
Speaker 1: so tags. I mean, I'm a little miffed because this
Speaker 1: was obviously not as important to you as it was
Speaker 1: to me. But I really I can't thank you enough
Speaker 1: for joining me today. You know basically about as much
Speaker 1: about football as pretty much any personal live except Chad Pennington,
Speaker 1: who not only knows football but also great hair. As
Speaker 1: I said, but I really love getting your take. I
Speaker 1: really hope that we can talk more this season, and again,
Speaker 1: thanks for coming on and for probably being wrong on
Speaker 1: the RAMS bet and giving me something great from Christine Auction.
Speaker 3: It was my pleasure and I look forward to you
Speaker 3: paying your end of the bet at the end of
Speaker 3: the year.
Speaker 1: Never gonna happen, buddy. Well, before diving back into some
Speaker 1: other bets that we like for this season, for our
Speaker 1: next episode, as I mentioned, we're going to be talking
Speaker 1: to Dustin Galker about the sports betting landscape, generally where
Speaker 1: we are, where we're headed, things like that. It's going
Speaker 1: to be a great show, so make sure you subscribe
Speaker 1: to the podcast so you don't miss an episode.
Speaker 4: I'll talk to you then.
Speaker 1: The fat and had cost them