WEBVTT - NFC Over/Under Wins: Best Bets (Ep. 1) 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:25.280 Hey there everyone, and welcome to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:25.400 --> 0:00:28.200 brought to you by play MGM. I am your host, 0:00:28.240 --> 0:00:30.880 Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. 0:00:30.880 --> 0:00:33.480 Ady with me today is my very good friend who 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:36.080 if you play fantasy football you already know and love, 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:38.760 Mike Taglier. You can find him on Twitter at Mike 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:40.239 Tagli air NFL tags. 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:42.120 How you doing, buddy, I'm. 0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:44.360 Doing good man. I don't think that you realize just 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:47.120 how much of a degenerate you are until you sit 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:50.080 down and you stalk beat writers Twitter reports, because like, 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:54.720 I'm playing preseason dfs tonight and uh yeah, so I've 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:56.320 become a stalker of beat writers. 0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:57.000 Yeah. 0:00:57.120 --> 0:00:59.720 Preseason is always sort of the toughest thing to do, right, 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:01.840 That's where you have to pay, frankly, the most attention 0:01:01.880 --> 0:01:04.039 because you have no idea who's actually going to play, 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:05.800 what the team's plan is going to be doing. But 0:01:06.080 --> 0:01:08.080 it's a busy day with this is how. We're recording 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:11.600 this on Wednesday. No, sorry, it's Thursday, right, yep, what 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:12.039 day is it? 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:12.479 Good lord? 0:01:12.720 --> 0:01:15.600 We're recording this on Thursday night, So there's a lot 0:01:15.600 --> 0:01:17.480 of preseason action to come. So I'm glad you're going 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:19.480 to be involved, but really, TEGs, I don't want to 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:21.199 talk about that. This is what I want to talk about. 0:01:21.240 --> 0:01:21.520 Text. 0:01:21.920 --> 0:01:24.440 You are married, of course, to a lovely lady. You 0:01:24.520 --> 0:01:27.840 have two beautiful children, and you work full time as 0:01:27.880 --> 0:01:31.040 a fantasy football analyst. But I need to ask, where 0:01:31.080 --> 0:01:34.080 do you think being on the inaugural episode of the 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:37.320 Betting Pros podcast or ranks in terms of great moments 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:39.280 in your life? Now, I assume, like me, your wife 0:01:39.400 --> 0:01:41.320 doesn't listen to your podcast and stuff, right, so you 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:44.720 can be honest, this is what top three ish. 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:45.760 I mean, it might be the top three thing that 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:46.480 happened today. 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:48.560 This is so disappointing. 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:51.240 I mean, I you know, I'm gonna get in touch 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:53.240 with our producers because I really wanted you for the 0:01:53.240 --> 0:01:55.440 first episode. But it's clearly a mistake. I want you 0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:58.440 to know, Tex. But obviously there's a disparity here because 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:01.360 for me, this is actually the sixth best moment of 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:03.160 my life, and I'm gonna I'm gonna give you the 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:06.040 few that it's behind. Okay, Number one the first time 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:08.400 I tried to shake Shack Burger. Okay, because that was 0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:11.480 for me pretty life changing. Number two the time Chad 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:14.840 Pennington told me that I had great hair. That really 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:17.520 I have lived on that for several years at this point. 0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:20.520 Number three the time that the lady at Coldstone Creamery 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:22.959 said that I could just reuse the buy one, get 0:02:22.960 --> 0:02:25.640 one coupon every day for the next three days until 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:29.640 the coupon expired. Number four the time that Marshaw Lynch 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:32.600 did that insane run in Week sixteen against the Cardinals 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:34.720 at the end of the game, and that capped off 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:36.520 my most dramatic Fantasy win of all time. Do you 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:40.080 remember that one? Like Chris Collinsworth is literally just laughing 0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:42.320 at the time that it was my avatar for my 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:46.080 fantasy leagues have literally just been Marshall Lynch jumping backward 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:48.760 into the end zone making a pretty inappropriate gesture. 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:49.920 But I think it's fine. 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:51.880 And number five was the day that I learned that 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:54.720 normal shoe companies now make like the large clown shoes 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:56.560 that I wear that were like extra wide, so I 0:02:56.560 --> 0:02:59.880 didn't have to order like plain white orthopedic shoes online 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:02.720 to fit my gigantic feet. So this slot's in right 0:03:02.760 --> 0:03:06.280 at number six. It's a little disappointing to hear how 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:10.080 little you value our interaction here. But I gotta be honest, 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:11.640 there's a lot of pressure on you here because this 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:13.560 is very meaningful to me. So you're going to have 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:15.080 to deliver today. Are you okay with that? 0:03:15.160 --> 0:03:17.240 Well, we are the two best friends that anyone can have. 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:21.480 I mean, if Bobby's listening, that includes Bobby, that includes you. 0:03:21.480 --> 0:03:23.000 We are the two best friends. You would be the 0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:23.680 third best friend. 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:26.560 That's true, And we were actually singing that offline before 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:27.880 I started recordings. 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:28.760 Absolutely true. 0:03:28.880 --> 0:03:31.000 So today we're going to be talking about some NFC 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:33.359 over under win totals, each giving a few of our 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:36.320 favorite bets for the upcoming season. Now, I am excited 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:38.520 for this inaugural show, as I just said, and for 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:40.720 much of the preseason, this is what we're going to 0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:42.880 be doing on this podcast, talking about some of our 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:45.400 best bets for the season. But for our next show, 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:47.200 we're actually going to take a quick step back and 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:49.560 give you kind of a primer on the landscape of 0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:52.280 sports betting, because most of you probably think that, well, 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:55.160 sports betting is legal, so that regardless of your state, 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:57.520 you can just Google bet on sports and place a 0:03:57.560 --> 0:04:00.640 bet on whatever website pops up. That's that's not the case. 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:02.480 Whether you can go out and place a bet in 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:04.560 any state, and if so, how you can actually do 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:07.080 that is going to depend on where things stand in 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:09.680 your particular state. So we're gonna get into all of 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:11.920 that and more with Dustin Galker, a guy who knows 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:14.840 more about the sports betting landscape than anyone I know. 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:17.000 But here's the thing, and I'm going to fill you 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:18.960 in on this a little bit before the show starts. 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:22.640 Is that New Jersey, which spearheaded the litigation that eventually 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:25.239 led to taking down the federal ban on sports betting, 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:27.800 is already up and running. You heard at the top 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:29.600 of the show that I mentioned that we are brought 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:31.960 to you by play MGM, And you don't need me 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:35.240 to tell you about MGM's incredible casinos or the entertainment 0:04:35.240 --> 0:04:37.479 that they offer. But if you're in New Jersey and 0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:40.240 you're wondering where to bet on sports, you really don't 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:43.279 need to look any further. Just download the play MGM 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:45.599 Sports app. Just go to your app store, type that 0:04:45.680 --> 0:04:47.520 in and you're going to see it right there. With 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:49.720 the MGM Sports app, you can bet on pretty much 0:04:49.760 --> 0:04:52.920 any sport you want. That includes college football, baseball, and 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:55.400 of course the NFL, they're going to be offering point 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:58.560 spreads and money lines and odd boosts, futures and props 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:01.479 in play wagering and a ton It's super easy to 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:04.440 deposit and withdraw your money, and you can do that anywhere. 0:05:04.480 --> 0:05:06.000 To be clear, you just have to be in New 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:08.800 Jersey to actually place your bet. But this is the 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:12.040 best part. When you download that AUP, use the promo 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:14.920 code Harris. That is my last name and also the 0:05:14.920 --> 0:05:17.360 first part of Harrison Ford's first name, So it's like 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:21.080 basically impossible to forget. Just use the promo code Harris 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:23.479 when you sign up, and when you do, you get 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:25.960 to play your first bet risk free. 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:26.960 That is not a joke. 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:29.960 If you use the Harris promo code and your first 0:05:30.000 --> 0:05:33.400 waiger is twenty five dollars or more and you lose play, 0:05:33.520 --> 0:05:36.400 MGM is going to refund your wager of up to 0:05:36.480 --> 0:05:38.840 one hundred dollars. I just want to make sure that 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:41.479 is clear to you guys, because I legitimately had to 0:05:41.520 --> 0:05:44.440 double check it. Your first wager of at least twenty 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:47.480 five dollars is a freebie. If you lose, they're gonna 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:50.719 refund your wager up to one hundred dollars. So just 0:05:50.839 --> 0:05:54.080 download the play MGM app, use the promo code Harris, 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:56.680 and head to New Jersey to place your first wager. 0:05:57.080 --> 0:05:59.000 So tag's the first thing I want to do is 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:01.960 talk a little bit, because you obviously are a fantasy analyst, 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:04.239 I want to talk a little bit about how sports 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:08.280 gambling impacts you as a fantasy analyst generally. So why 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:10.560 don't you you know? Because I read your primer every week, 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:12.720 which everybody should be doing, and I know you talk 0:06:12.760 --> 0:06:14.599 about things like implied total So I just want to 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:17.120 know generally, how you know the lines at Vegas or 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:19.920 any sportsbook sets kind of impacts how you think about fantasy. 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:22.680 Yeah, it's a really good question, Dan. This is something 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:25.120 that legitimately kept me up at night. And I'm not 0:06:25.160 --> 0:06:27.760 like kidding around. I'm not just saying that likes like 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:30.440 a saying. I've literally woken up at three am sometimes 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:32.440 when like an idea strikes me and it's like I 0:06:32.480 --> 0:06:34.960 get up to research it. And this was one of 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:37.360 those things. I wanted to know the average amount of 0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:40.640 fantasy points scored in an average NFL game, and then 0:06:40.680 --> 0:06:42.960 I wanted to break that apart into averages based on 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:45.640 the over under that was set for the game. I 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:48.440 had never rese I've never released that release research that 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:49.920 I did because I didn't want I wanted to like 0:06:49.960 --> 0:06:52.080 fine tune it and get a bigger sample size. But 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:54.599 it definitely has an effect on fantasy output as you 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:57.200 would expect, and it's definitely a curve. So like, as 0:06:57.240 --> 0:07:01.000 a sample in the twenty one games, when the total 0:07:01.080 --> 0:07:02.880 was in between fifty two and fifty three and a 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:05.520 half points, that game netted on both sides of the 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:08.120 ball one hundred and seventy nine fantasy points. By comparison, 0:07:08.160 --> 0:07:10.960 if we drop that down ten points to forty two 0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:13.360 to forty three and a half a point spread, it 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:16.800 actually average one hundred and thirty eight point five fantasy points. 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:19.679 So you're talking about a difference of like forty fantasy 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:22.360 points just over forty fantasy points just because the game's 0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:25.200 over under was up ten points and we're not talking 0:07:25.240 --> 0:07:28.440 like the over under was sixty. Vegas has this locked 0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:30.440 down to the point where it's like the odds makers 0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:33.040 they set these lines, they know exactly what they're expecting, 0:07:33.240 --> 0:07:34.840 and most of the time it's going to pan out 0:07:34.880 --> 0:07:38.600 to where if you're ever torn between you know two players, 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:41.240 you should definitely use the over under to help you 0:07:41.280 --> 0:07:44.880 decide that, particularly in DFS, because as we've seen, you know, 0:07:44.920 --> 0:07:47.120 in this research that I've done, that small sample size, 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:49.440 is that it does affect fantasy football and if you 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:51.840 and again if you're torn, choose the player that's got 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:53.080 the higher over under in his game. 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:56.560 Yeah, that's a really great point. And frankly, that research, 0:07:56.840 --> 0:07:59.200 I mean, that was kind of a shocking number how 0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:01.440 large it was, just the difference that can be done. 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:03.640 And in terms of just like by the week, do 0:08:03.680 --> 0:08:06.400 you think that fantasy players can in any way gain 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:10.400 any advantage generally by paying attention sort of to sports gambling. 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:12.360 I mean, you know they are you know, you mentioned 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:15.400 the lines that Vegas sets and those you know, they 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:17.360 know more about football basically and how to set those 0:08:17.400 --> 0:08:19.320 lines and where they go than anybody else in the world. 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:21.800 But in the end, you know, the lines move, you know, 0:08:22.120 --> 0:08:23.840 during the week and stuff like that. Does any of 0:08:23.880 --> 0:08:26.600 that impact you essentially as a fantasy analyst or a 0:08:26.640 --> 0:08:27.600 fantasy player. 0:08:27.600 --> 0:08:29.800 Yes, absolutely, And you have to like it's all about 0:08:29.840 --> 0:08:32.000 correlation and you have to find those things that correlate, 0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:35.160 Like line movement itself can identify opportunity with running backs, 0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:37.439 because you do not want to tie yourself too many 0:08:37.520 --> 0:08:40.760 running backs who are double digit underdogs. Like if you're 0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:42.760 playing DFS for the week and you're like, Wow, why 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:44.800 is this guy forty three hundred dollars? I should probably 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:46.640 play him, and then you realize that he's a twelve 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:49.840 point underdog. The correlation with that is terrible in terms 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:52.040 of like four running backs. On the flip side, if 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:53.640 you have a team that's sitting there as a favorite 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:55.480 by two and a half points and then you see 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:57.120 the line shift and all of a sudden it's up 0:08:57.160 --> 0:08:59.400 to five and a half points, the running back on 0:08:59.440 --> 0:09:01.720 the big favorite should be bumped up in your rankings 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:03.360 a little bit and you should be more you know, 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:04.680 open to playing that guy. 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:07.600 Yeah that those are great points, And I've been doing 0:09:07.600 --> 0:09:09.680 that now for a couple of years, and it really 0:09:09.720 --> 0:09:13.439 really does make a difference, especially in DFS. So the 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:15.760 bottom line is, even if you are just sort of 0:09:15.800 --> 0:09:18.800 even if it's not necessarily legal in your state at 0:09:18.800 --> 0:09:20.760 this point, although I'm sure we'll be soon to bet 0:09:20.760 --> 0:09:25.120 on sports paying attention necessarily to Vegas lines and the 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:27.240 way things are moving in particular, can really give you 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:30.239 an end, both in your season long leagues and in dfs. 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:33.280 So why don't we then get into the bulk of 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:36.240 the show. Now, we decided to go with the NFC 0:09:36.320 --> 0:09:38.679 because you know, i've tags as a Bears fan, as 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:41.160 everybody pretty much knows, and so I I assume that 0:09:41.200 --> 0:09:44.080 he's got relatively strong opinions on some of the teams. 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:45.880 So tags, why don't we do this? Why don't you 0:09:45.960 --> 0:09:47.960 start and give me what you think your best over 0:09:48.120 --> 0:09:49.320 under is for the NFC. 0:09:50.200 --> 0:09:53.359 My best one, I would say that I have Detroit 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:56.360 under six and a half wins. That's the over under 0:09:56.360 --> 0:09:57.959 on their win total six and a half. So it's basically, 0:09:58.000 --> 0:09:59.560 if if you think they're gonna be seven and nine, 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:01.400 you're gonna take the over. If you think they're gonna 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:03.760 have six wins or less, you're gonna take the under. Obviously, 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:06.880 there's no push in this situation. Seventy one percent of 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:09.079 experts actually agree with me on this one, So it's 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:10.640 not like, you know, I know there's gonna be put 0:10:10.640 --> 0:10:12.680 some people out there listening saying, oh, well, he's a 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:15.680 Bears fan. I am one hundred percent. I leave those 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:19.000 take I leave my fandom outside my job. But Detroit. 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:20.680 You know, when you look at the division, you see 0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:23.360 that the Bears are projected to win nine or ten games. 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:25.360 You look at Green Bay, they're projected to win nine 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:28.360 or ten games. Minnesota the same exact thing. So where 0:10:28.559 --> 0:10:31.080 is Detroit getting their free wins? You know, the NFCS 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:34.600 as a conference has turned like brutal, like in terms 0:10:34.600 --> 0:10:36.880 of like sheer top end talent. I would say the 0:10:37.000 --> 0:10:40.400 NFC is a tougher conference now and Detroit under Matt 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:43.800 Patricia unfortunately, you have to be one of two things 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:44.920 as a head coach. If you want to if you 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:47.040 want to be you know, a nine to sevent team 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.280 or whatever that is, like just like a winning coach, 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:51.520 you have to either be a an offensive mind that 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:54.360 your offense is so good to overcome some defensive struggles. 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:56.720 Because to be fair, I'd rather have an offensive minded 0:10:56.760 --> 0:10:59.800 coach because the NFL is going that way they want. 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:01.840 You know, it's like the chicks dig the long ball. 0:11:01.920 --> 0:11:04.679 It's just like chickstick touchdowns. That's basically where we're at 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:08.199 now and Detroit they really don't have that, and now 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:10.160 they're talking about running the ball a whole lot more. 0:11:10.360 --> 0:11:13.400 Matt Patricia is not an elite defensive coach, you know, 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:15.680 like if you have someone like Pete Carroll who continually 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:17.800 puts out the best team on the field, that's an 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:19.480 elite coach in terms of he might not be an 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:21.800 offensive mind, but his defense comes out to play every 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:24.079 single week. We didn't see that out of Detroit last year. 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:25.600 I don't think they have the talent and the roster, 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:28.480 and again, they play in probably the toughest division in football, 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:31.440 So to say that they'd win seven games, I think 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:33.920 that's a stretch. So I'd say Detroit was more like 0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:35.560 a five and eleven or six and ten team. 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:37.920 Yeah, I definitely think that's fair. And as we'll get 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:41.320 to with some of my picks, I'm certainly more bullish 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:43.480 on some of the other teams in the North. But 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:45.720 I do want to point something out because you brought 0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:48.000 up a good point which kind of leads me sort 0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:49.880 of to what I wanted to talk about here, which 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:53.120 is you mentioned that seventy one percent of experts are 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:55.720 with you on the under, And just to be clear, 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:59.480 that number comes from bettingpros dot Com, which, by the way, 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:02.280 if you love Fantasy pros, you're really gonna love Betting 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:04.439 Cross because it does a lot of the same things. 0:12:04.480 --> 0:12:06.560 Part of what it does is it pulls together expert 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:10.040 picks from across various platforms, It rates the advice, and 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.720 it then turns it into consensus picks. So at Betting Pros, 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:16.280 for example, you can get consensus picks from over one 0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:19.360 hundred and fifty experts, either for over unders or against 0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:22.160 the spread. You can see accuracy ratings for everyone who's 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:24.680 submitting picks. You can compare expert picks for any game 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:27.800 you want, and you can see consensus odds across sports 0:12:27.800 --> 0:12:30.199 books to make it easy to compare the various odds 0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:31.960 that are out there. We're going with six and a half, 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:34.480 as you saw for the over under for the Lions wins, 0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:37.360 and that is the consensus over under. Now it lists 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:40.079 a bunch of different sportsbooks, and frank they're all happen 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:42.199 to be at six and a half. But that's another 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:43.880 thing that you're going to be able to see at 0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:46.600 Betting pros do com. So if you go into betting 0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:48.439 pros dot com and you go and you look at 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:50.600 what the over unders are for the season, and you 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:53.920 click on analysis under Betting Pros, you'll see seventy one 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:57.120 percent of experts have the under including tags which you 0:12:57.120 --> 0:12:59.679 can see right there, and only twenty nine percent have 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:02.120 the old. So that is one of the things that 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:04.760 we're gonna be doing at the site now. Sticking with 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:06.800 the North one of the ones I have, I'm not 0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:09.880 let's just say this, I don't expect to lose this 0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:13.040 bet with. This is the Vikings over nine wins, and 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:16.560 the thing is, I nine wins to me feels very safe, 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:19.320 and so I'm looking at this as the worst case 0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:20.840 scenario as sort of a push. 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:21.640 You can't push with. 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:23.520 The Lions, they're six and a half. Obviously you're gonna 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.880 win or you're gonna lose. With the Vikings at nine, 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:28.520 I feel relatively confident at this point that they're gonna 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:31.120 make at least nine, but I feel pretty good about 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:34.240 them getting to ten, possibly eleven. They brought in Gary Kubiak, 0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:37.200 who I don't even know what his exact job title 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:39.920 is at this point, quarterback whisper, whatever it is, is 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:43.720 an offensive advisor, but he's basically like a guarantee to 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:46.440 have a top ten offense, and he emphasizes play action 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:49.480 pass and I really think that that's gonna benefit Kirk Cousins. 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:51.719 So I do expect the offense, which really sort of 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:54.200 struggled later on down the stretch, to be better. And 0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:56.880 the team drafted Garrett Bradbury out of North Carolina State. 0:13:57.120 --> 0:13:59.760 To me, that really really bulks up their offensive line. 0:13:59.800 --> 0:14:02.760 And best of all, he is familiar with the zone 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:05.160 blocking scheme that Kubiak likes to implement, you know, and 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:07.679 I think Dalvin Cook as well, he's familiar with his 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.040 zone blocking scheme, so he's going to be back healthy. 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:12.360 I'm really excited about it. And the defense, which was 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:16.120 you know, i'll say maybe not elite but definitely above average, 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:19.480 is largely intact, so sort of for the same reasons 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:21.760 that you do not like the Lions. In the end, 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:23.840 I kind of think that the Vikings are probably going 0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:25.680 to win both their games against the Lions to start, 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:27.960 and I really expect them to have a strong season 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:28.320 this year. 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:28.720 Yeah. 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:31.200 I mean, the Vikings are a team that under achieved 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:34.240 last year for sure, and I think that they've always 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:35.920 had that elite defense. You know, that's one of those 0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:37.920 teams where it's like Mike Zimmer's coach that great defense, 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.640 and once Pat Schrimer left, you kind of just felt like, Okay, 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:42.640 the talent is there. You know, they brought in Cousins 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:44.480 and the offense is going to be competent enough to 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:47.800 get into the playoffs, and they fell apart. Cousins, you know, 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:50.160 was really up and down in his performances. But you 0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:52.520 know year two in that offense, you know, upgrading the 0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:54.480 offensive line. You know, the defense won't be on the 0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:56.080 field hopefully as much. If they can run the ball 0:14:56.080 --> 0:14:58.360 with Dalvin Cook, if he could stay healthy, I think 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:01.240 nine wins is right. It's about right for them. Again, 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:04.000 they play in this tough division, tough conference. But if 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.480 they get everything together and if Kubiak, if they do 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:08.840 pick up that offense, I could see ten wins out 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:11.160 of this team. It's just it's really tough to do 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:13.400 that in the NFC now, And which kind of like 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:15.800 it's like a good segue to my next team that 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:18.280 I would have as under is ten and a half 0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:20.520 the New Orleans Saints ten and a half wins. I'm 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:24.840 going to go under that. The Saints are a good roster, 0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:27.960 but their defense is a little suspect. Okay, Sean Payton's 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:30.000 always been an elite play caller. We know that that 0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:32.840 offense is going to show up losing Mark Ingram probably 0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:34.680 not going to lose anything in that offense, replacing him 0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:38.120 with Latavious Murray, losing their starting center, that's not ideal 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:40.440 on the offensive line. That's going to downgrade that a 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:42.240 little bit. But it's not so much about the offense. 0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:45.680 This is more about the inconsistency on defense and particularly 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:49.120 in their secondary outside of Actually, I should say Marcus 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:52.000 Latimore took a step back last year and then they 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:55.160 traded for Eli Apple, who he's just a mediocre guy. 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:57.400 I just feel like that defense, I know they've added 0:15:57.400 --> 0:15:59.920 a few pieces to it, is a little too inconsistent 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:03.040 for them to for you to say, oh, I'm guarantee, 0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:04.960 I'm gonna say they're gonna win eleven games. They're gonna 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:08.000 go eleven and five. Atlanta is a really good football team. 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:10.200 Tampa Bay is now coached by Bruce Arians. I would 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:12.400 I would assume that Arians Indivision is gonna win one 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:15.080 of those games against them. Breeze when he plays outdoors again, 0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:17.560 maybe that game is at Tampa Bay. When he plays outdoors, 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:21.000 he's not as good. Carolina is always competitive under Ron Rivera, 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.880 So to win eleven games. I don't see how anybody 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:26.160 could take the over on New Orleans. I would have 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:28.840 set that line of ten and made someone pick. You know, 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:31.440 are you gonna say, are you willing to lay that 0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:34.440 rake in order to bet New Orleans? But the ten 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:35.760 and a half is just too high? 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:38.160 Yeah, I agree with you, And you know this is 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:42.120 gonna be a little overly simplistic, but you know, eventually, 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:45.040 I just it's really hard to bet on eleven games 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:47.320 when Breeze is what forty years old at this point. 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:49.600 I mean, I love the guy, but you know, it's 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:52.680 father time is undefeated unless you know your name is 0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:56.000 Tom Brady essentially, so at some point the ride is 0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:58.760 gonna end. And that is just such a huge number. 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:00.480 And I know, you know that they can they can 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:02.720 put up a thirteen and three season really any year. 0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:05.360 But you're right, you know, the Panthers I like a lot. 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:08.520